Thursday, August 9, 2007
A Good Old Fashioned Drubbing
In a start reminiscent of the halcyon days of Kei Igawa, Chien-Ming Wang got torched by the Blue Jays yesterday, and the Yankees fell to Toronto 15-4.How bad was it? It was the most runs Wang has ever given up in a game, and the fewest innings of any start of his career. His K/9 of 10.1 was killer, so that's something..
Good starters have bad games, but I'm still a little concerned that Wang's fingernail is bothering him. There's not much the Yankees can do about that for now though.
As much as it sucks, the Yankees will lose some games over the rest of the season. The important thing is that they have been taking series, home and road, and for the most part picking up ground. The story of the season is probably going to be told over the next three weeks and this 20 game stretch.
| Date | Opponent | W% | Pyth% | aW | aL | pW | pL |
| Fri, 8/10 | at Indians | 0.582 | 0.567 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Sat, 8/11 | at Indians | 0.582 | 0.567 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Sun, 8/12 | at Indians | 0.582 | 0.567 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Mon, 8/13 | Orioles | 0.443 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Tue, 8/14 | Orioles | 0.443 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Wed, 8/15 | Orioles | 0.443 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Thu, 8/16 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Fri, 8/17 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Sat, 8/18 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Sun, 8/19 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Mon, 8/20 | at Angels | 0.606 | 0.577 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Tue, 8/21 | at Angels | 0.606 | 0.577 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Wed, 8/22 | at Angels | 0.606 | 0.577 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Fri, 8/24 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Sat, 8/25 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Sun, 8/26 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Mon, 8/27 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Tue, 8/28 | Red Sox | 0.585 | 0.619 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Wed, 8/29 | Red Sox | 0.585 | 0.619 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Thu, 8/30 | Red Sox | 0.585 | 0.619 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Total | 0.555 | 0.559 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
W%: Opponent's winning percentage
Pyth%: Opponent's pythagorean winning percentage
aW: Expected log5 wins based on actual winning percentage
aL: Expected log 5 losses based on actual winning percentage
pW: Expected log5 wins based on Pythagorean winning percentage
pL: Expected log 5 losses based on Pythagorean winning percentage
The chart above uses Bill James's log5 method to figure out the expected results of every game. There is a home field advantage of .040 to every team's winning percentage factored in here. Actual winning percentage is self explanatory. For those who are not familiar with Pythagorean winning percentage, it's a way to look at the run differential of a team and calculate an expected winning percentage and is typically a better indicator of a team's quality than actual winning percentage. The formula for it is:
RS ^ 1.83
----------------
RS^1.83 + RA^1.83
where RS = runs scored and RA = runs allowed.
The Orioles are the only weak team in the bunch, but they match up well against the Yankees due to their solid left-handed pitching. Realistically, we shouldn't expect much better than 10-10 or 11-9 over this stretch. I'd be happy with 11-9. After that the schedule gets a lot easier. Tomorrow, I'll post a revised playoff outlook.
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