Sunday, April 8, 2007

InstaWin!

One of the things I like about doing a liveblog is how it captures how I feel at a particular moment in the game.  If I write a recap, it’s inevitably colored by my feelings about the ultimate outcome of the game.  A bad play early doesn’t seem so bad if they win, and a great play early seems futile if they lose.  But in that liveblog, each event is described with the feelings I had at that time.  If you go back and read yesterday’s liveblog, you’ll see the utter feeling of resignation I felt.

It was dreadful.  Kei Igawa somehow pitched five innings, but he’d given up the game in the second, when the Orioles jumped to a 5-2 lead.  Two innings later it was 7-2, and the game just felt over.  It wasn’t just because they were down by 5—they’ve got a good enough offense to come back from that—it’s that they were going down so very meekly.  They weren’t making Trachsel work, they weren’t generating rallies that were falling short, they were just making outs.

Every time they make this kind of comeback, I tell myself that I’ll never doubt again, but really, you can’t keep that kind of promise.  It happens, but not often enough to expect it.  Early on, it was plausible, but they weren’t putting up much of a fight.  As the game got later, though the bullpen shut the O’s down again, a comeback became even less and less likely.  The turning point, when a comeback seemed plausible for the first time, was when A-Rod came back from 0-2 to walk in the eighth inning to put the tying run on deck.  And with Jason Giambi’s three-run homer, a tie was just one swing away.

But still, even then, my mind fixed not on how they could have win, but on the things they did to lose.  If only Jeter hadn’t dropped the ball at second base, if only he’d gotten on base in front of A-Rod’s 1st inning homer, or Abreu’s eighth inning walk.  If only Cano had been able to get a hit, or if that pop fly that fell behind first had gone just a little further.  If only that pitch to Markakis in the first was just a little further outside…

The Yanks went down meekly to Chris Ray in the ninth on Friday, and they were well on their way to doing that again yesterday.  Doug Mientkiewicz ripped a ball to start the inning, but a diving grab by Chris Gomez turned a double into an out.  And you had to figure that if they weren’t going to get that break, they had no chance.  Then Melky got blown away, and Cano fell behind 0-1.  But then Cano got a hit, and Jeter was up with a chance to tie or win it.

My thoughts went to Jeter’s earlier failures, and how even if he grounded out to end the game, he’d be given a pass in the media for the loss, while A-Rod gets crucified for doing anything wrong in a game where everyone failed.  And Jeter came very close to blowing it, swinging at a pitch that nearly hit him, turning either a 3-1 count (or maybe a HBP) into a 2-2 count.  But Jeter was able to work the walk, and the game continued.

Before Jeter’s AB, I joked that maybe the O’s should walk the bases loaded so they could strike out A-Rod.  I wasn’t really serious, but I knew that if they did get to A-Rod, and he did strike out, that A-Rod would be the goat… despite having carried the team the whole game.  And when Abreu was hit with the second pitch… up came A-Rod with the bases loaded and two outs, do-or-die.

Maybe he’d hit a single to win, or draw a walk to tie.  He could hit a deep fly out, or a weak grounder.  He could pop up, line out, strike out looking, or strike out swinging.  Or he could hit a homer.  There were so many things he could do to lose the game, so few things he could do to tie or win it.  Just the mere fact that he makes outs 60% of the time made it more likely he’d fail here than succeed.  But I also knew that this was the golden opportunity.

A-Rod’s reputation is unfair for so many reasons.  If he makes a first inning out with RISP, people remember that.  If he drives the runner home, people cheer, then forget about it.  And it’s just the first inning, so what does it matter?  Unless, of course, he made an out.  Which he’s more likely than not to do anyway.

The reputation really snowballed since he first came to New York.  He “struggled” in his first season, never hitting like the MVP he was in Texas.  That disappointed fans, and there were the inevitable questions about whether he was “cut out” for New York.  Then he singlehandedly carried them to victory in the ALDS, and was poised to be the ALCS MVP.  Then Bill Mueller singled, and all was lost.  The slap play in Game Six became the lasting image of the series for the Yankees, and A-Rod was blamed far more than his fair share for the loss.  Jeter, Sheffield and Matsui deserved far more of the blame.

Then came 2005, where he was obviously the MVP the moment the Yankees got back into the playoff hunt.  He was hitting as well as he’d ever had, but in August, there started a movement to give David Ortiz the MVP.  Ortiz’s numbers weren’t as good as A-Rod’s, and he played DH while A-Rod played a strong 3B.  So Ortiz’s clutch numbers, which were spectacular, were introduced.  Ortiz hit better in the clutch.  A-Rod hit worse.  A-Rod’s numbers were still pretty good in those situations, but in order to make Ortiz seem like the better candidate, his supporters started to preach that A) Clutch Hitting was basically the only thing that mattered, and B) A-Rod wasn’t just worse than normal in the clutch, he outright STUNK in the clutch.

It didn’t work, A-Rod hung on to his MVP, though the vote shouldn’t have been nearly as close.  Then came a 2-15 ALDS against the Angels, including some crucial failures in big spots, and the reputation grew.  The 2004 ALDS was forgotten, the blame for the ALCS in 2004 was placed even more on him, and he was blamed almost entirely for the 2005 ALDS loss, while Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui got off blameless.

And the reputation stuck, and when A-Rod struggled through the month of June in 2006, and failed in several clutch spots, critics jumped on him.  “Ah-ha!  We told you he stunk in the clutch!  See?  He can’t do it!  He never could!”  A come-from-behind walkoff against the Braves was discounted because it was off a crap pitcher and a mediocre team in interleague play.  And then came a 1-14 ALDS against the Tigers, a loss that he was against blamed for (while—guess who?—Gary Sheffield wasn’t criticized for).  And so it goes.

And now he was up in the bottom of the ninth.  Without him, the game would be 7-3, or maybe worse.  It would stink if he made an out here, but you couldn’t blame him for the loss, not with all he’d already done.

But they were going to blame him.  You KNOW they were going to blame him.  If he walked, they’d ignore it, if he singled, they’d cheer it, then forget it.  There was only one thing he could do to make them remember, at least for a little while.

The first pitch was outside, and the second was over the outside corner for strike one.  The third was over the plate, and A-Rod swung through it.

Oh no.  1-2… a strike looking at the knees.  Or maybe a swinging strike on a ball off the plate, or worst of all, swinging through a high pitch he could drive.  It happens all the time, but if he did that here, they’d remember it… for a long time.  I didn’t expect a strikeout… but I dreaded the fallout of one.  As though a strikeout was worse than a fly ball to the warning track.  But to the media, it is.  Because it just seems so much more inept.

The 1-2… a swing… contact!  Good contact!  Is Patterson going to be able to get that one?  It looks like it’s going to get over him, he’s pulling up…. IT’S GONE!  IT’S GONE!!!

A-Rod knew it the moment he swung the bat, he knew he’d won the game, he knew he’d hit a grand slam.  And maybe they’d boo him Sunday if he hit into a first inning double play, but this was a game that mattered to this team at this point, off a pitcher who isn’t just good, but very good.

If the Yankees had lost, they’d be 1-3, in last place.  They’d have had terrible pitching for every game, their bullpen would be spent, and it would be panic time in the tabloids.  The pitching has still stunk, the bullpen is still beat, but they’re now 2-2, and things are looking okay enough to avoid any kind of panic in the media.  This team didn’t need extra pressure, and A-Rod’s blast took it off of them for a couple of days, and off of him for a couple of weeks, at least.  There are, and always will be, a number of clutch failures that people will point to with A-Rod.  There have been plenty for Jeter and Ortiz, too, but people never point to them.  This is one that his defenders can point to.  No, he’s not as clutch as Papi, but nobody is.  A-Rod can get it done when the game’s on the line, and he gets it done when the game’s being contended, too.  There are actually people out there who think the Yankees would be somehow better off without A-Rod, that they should let him walk this offseason and get someone else—anybody else—to take over at third.  That he’s just so inept when they need him he’s worthless.  We call these people idiots, but they’re also loud people.  This will shut them up for a day or two.  On this point, at least.

So the Yankees head into the series finale 2-2.  You know, they’ve been terrible on defense and with starting pitching, but they’re still outscoring their opponents 29-25.  If you extrapolate that ratio to 162 games, they’d score nearly 1200 runs while giving up more than 1000.  But they’d win 93 games.

And really, you’ve gotta expect things to get better.  Worst case scenario, they’re not going to have a starting rotation ERA of 9.87.

John Mileskey (SJ) will be liveblogging today’s game, so join us this afternoon for some Grade A snark.  Happy baseball!

(One last note: it’s been mentioned that the liveblogs are replacing our “usual” analysis.  Not really.  The liveblogs are replacing our usual non-posts.  For me, they’re like a writing exercise, and hopefully they’ll get my gears clicking enough to get me back into a groove.  I’m about to turn 30, and I’ve wasted my life.  If there’s a way for me to accomplish anything in life, it’s with my words.  So I’ve got to find a way to make it work.  And hopefully the liveblogs will help.

Plus, the Game Chatters are just pure fun!)