---

Thursday, October 8, 2009

2009 ALDS Preview: Satan’s East Coast Team vs. Satan’s West Coast Team

Here’s a quick look at the Twins’ possible opponents for the next round…

Red Sox
The plucky underdogs from New England finished with the third-best record in the American League and took the wild card by eight games. Let's see how they look as presently constituted.

Although the Yankees ended up finishing eight games ahead of Boston, the actual difference between the two teams is more than likely smaller than that. Here's how their position players project for the ALDS, using my guess at the postseason roster (which isn't finalized yet).

Lineup	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	pwOBA	09wOBA	Diff	BR	Outs	dRS
jacoby ellsbury	cf	23	.300	.353	.420	.341	.336	-.005	3	15	-10
dustin pedroia	2b	22	.305	.370	.459	.362	.358	-.004	3	14	8
victor martinez	c	22	.301	.376	.458	.366	.398	.032	3	14	1
kevin youkilis	1b	21	.294	.394	.510	.392	.414	.021	3	13	4
david ortiz	dh	21	.270	.378	.539	.391	.342	-.049	4	13	0
jason bay	lf	20	.274	.377	.517	.384	.394	.009	3	12	-14
j.d. drew	rf	19	.276	.389	.493	.383	.394	.011	3	12	4
mike lowell	3b	19	.281	.336	.465	.345	.348	.003	3	13	-1
alex gonzalez	ss	10	.270	.317	.417	.319	.324	.005	1	7	5
casey kotchman	1b	10	.279	.350	.427	.342	.339	-.003	1	7	7
rocco baldelli	rf	4	.269	.327	.475	.344	.322	-.022	1	3	-1
jason varitek	c	2	.230	.331	.396	.324	.311	-.013	0	1	1
jed lowrie	ss	2	.253	.329	.407	.324	.211	-.112	0	1	14
nick green	ss	1	.253	.312	.409	.314	.295	-.019	0	1	2
total		196	.286	.366	.475				29	124	0

PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.

Keep in mind that these projections are for Fenway, which boosts run-scoring even more than DNYS. So even though the raw numbers look better than any other team's, once you adjust for park they go down a little. Still, this is a good offensive team, especially if they are starting Victor Martinez at catcher. In a neutral environment they're probably a little worse than the Yankees, but better than any other team in the postseason.

I know we like to mock the media's fascination with the Red Sox, but they deserve credit for how they've put their team together. In Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis they have two players among the best at their positions in baseball that they've drafted and developed themselves, and while additional farm product Jacoby Ellsbury is overrated because of his speed, he's a pretty valuable player on offense. The only player on offense that is below average is probably Alex Gonzalez, although we can probably add Jason "C" Varitek if he gets any starts.

So yeah, they can hit. What about the defense? Funny you should ask. The Red Sox weren't a very good defensive team this year if you go by the numbers (-17 UZR, -36 ZR). The ZR number is "not" adjusted for Fenway's disgraceful LF wall, the normal effect of that is around 15 runs, so they're probably closer to that -17 UZR number.

Jason Bay is pretty bad in LF, and it's not just a Fenway thing. His numbers in Pittsburgh since a knee injury a few years ago were also not that good. Jacoby Ellsbury "looks" good, and he had decent numbers before this year, but for whatever reason his numbers aren't so good this year. I'd probably split the difference with him. He's probably not as good as Red Sox fans think, but he's also probably not as bad as this year's numbers indicate. Pedroia, Youkilis, Alex Gonzalez and J.D. Drew all probably classify as good to great defensively. Mike Lowell used to be a good defender, but his mobility has been hampered by his hip injury. Overall, they were a below average defense in 2009 but they project around average now.

The pitching staff of the Red Sox gets a lot of attention, as well they should with somewhere in the order of 12 different aces. Here's how they look.

Pitcher	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	K	pRA	pERA	pFIP	09ERA	09FIP	sIP	sR
jon lester	SP1	182	184	18	66	154	4.22	4.06	3.88	3.41	3.21	12	5.6
josh beckett	SP2	198	190	23	52	178	4.35	4.08	3.70	3.86	3.63	6	2.9
clay buchholz	SP3	115	124	14	39	87	5.08	4.77	4.31	4.21	4.73	6	3.4
daisuke matsuzaka	SP4	143	134	16	70	128	4.48	4.33	4.28	5.77	5.09	5	2.5
jonathan papelbon	CL	65	50	5	18	73	2.58	2.26	2.72	1.85	2.98	3	0.9
billy wagner	SU	46	34	4	14	54	3.37	2.71	2.94	1.97	2.47	3	1.1
daniel bard	SU	77	69	6	32	70	4.55	4.19	3.60	3.65	3.30	3	1.5
hideki okajima	MR	65	55	7	22	56	3.30	3.25	3.89	3.39	4.20	3	1.1
takashi saito	MR	60	50	4	23	62	2.79	2.63	3.18	2.42	4.08	2	0.6
ramon ramirez	MR	83	94	15	31	61	6.10	5.69	5.25	2.84	4.39	1	0.7
paul byrd	MR	134	159	20	31	64	5.41	4.93	4.87	5.82	5.05	1	0.6
manny delcarmen	LR	68	67	5	31	55	4.50	4.16	3.93	4.52	4.52	0	0.0
Total		45	43	5	16	40	4.18	3.92	3.82				20.9

pRA: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
pERA: Projected earned runs allowed per nine innings
pFIP: Projected Fielding independent pitching
sIP: Estimated innings in the series
sR: Estimated runs allowed in the series based on revised projection and sIP
The Red Sox haven't officially announced a game 4 starter so I put Matsuzaka in there. If they are down 2-1 I could see them going back to Lester.

Although Josh Beckett projects slightly better, Lester is probably the best Red Sox starter. His projection underrates him because it still includes data from when he was recovering from cancer. If I were to go with my gut, I'd knock about 0.50 off his ERA and FIP, but I am not going to start making manual adjustments to my projections because I want to be as objective as possible. But yeah, figure Lester is better than his projection, and probably one of the top five starters in the postseason.

Beckett has a good postseason resume and generally has pretty good peripherals, but he's struggled some with the long ball this year. Whether it was a HR/FB fluke (12.8% in 2009, compared to 10.6% career) or a symptom of some back problems he's supposedly been having is probably the key question. Still, you'd be hard pressed to find a #2 starter who is as likely to dominate as Beckett.

Clay Buchholz has been hyped for a few years now and had shown both promise and awfulness, but he pitched pretty well this year for both Pawtucket and eventually Boston. He's already exceed his previous high for innings pitched in a season this year by about 40 innings so he may be starting to hit the wall as evidenced by his last two starts (8 IP, 13 H, 13 R, 6 HR, 3 BB and 10 K). It could also just be a blip.

Matsuzaka had a rough year after a very good (if somewhat lucky) 2008. He pitched well upon his return from the DL over his last four starts, with a 2.22 ERA and 4.23 FIP, but it's pretty tough to know what the Sox will get from him.

The Sox bullpen is probably the best one in the postseason. Their top five relievers have a collective projected ERA of 3.46 and the highest projected K rate of any of the teams at 8.77.

Overall, this roster and distribution of playing time has the best strikeout rate of all the postseason teams at 8.01 per 9. Their projected walk rate is 3.15 per nine, which is worse than all other teams but the Rockies and Dodgers. HR rate of 0.93 per nine is essentially middle of the pack.

In summary, here's what all that means.

#games	5
home games	2
#outs	125
offense	29.2
pitching	20.8
defense	0.0
wpct	.656
162 gm equiv	106-56

#outs: 27 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching and defense for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season

As much as it pains me to say it, the Red Sox are at the very least the second best team in the postseason if you penalize the Cardinals for playing in a weaker league. The difference in winning percentage between them and the Yankees is essentially due to home field advantage.

So how about their opposition?

Angels

A lot of analysts are fond of saying the Angels are an 86-90 win team who got lucky and exceeded their Pythagorean record this year. Maybe that's at least somewhat true, but it is irrelevant in the context of this series. Let's see what the team that's going to be playing Boston actually looks like.

Lineup	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	pwOBA	09wOBA	Diff	BR	Outs	dRS
chone figgins	3b	23	.288	.371	.381	.340	.354	.015	3	14	9
bobby abreu	rf	22	.284	.379	.440	.362	.366	.004	3	14	-12
torii hunter	cf	22	.285	.349	.492	.362	.375	.013	3	14	-3
vladimir guerrero	dh	21	.304	.365	.511	.376	.344	-.033	3	13	0
juan rivera	lf	21	.275	.320	.462	.336	.348	.012	3	14	8
kendry morales	1b	20	.296	.341	.505	.369	.388	.019	3	13	5
maicer izturis	2b	19	.281	.343	.401	.329	.346	.017	2	12	4
mike napoli	c	19	.259	.355	.499	.367	.362	-.005	3	12	-6
erick aybar	ss	10	.281	.317	.388	.308	.334	.025	1	7	5
howie kendrick	2b	10	.297	.332	.446	.337	.337	.000	1	7	5
gary matthews jr.	lf	4	.257	.330	.401	.323	.315	-.008	0	3	-2
reggie willits	lf	2	.261	.351	.322	.310	.213	-.097	0	1	5
jeff mathis	c	2	.213	.276	.334	.270	.264	-.006	0	1	-4
robb quinlan	lf	1	.263	.310	.374	.303	.271	-.031	0	1	0
total		196	.284	.349	.453				27	128	0

The Angels were third in baseball in team wOBA at .352 (behind the Yankees at .366 and the Red Sox at .352). They were second in runs scored at 883 (behind the Yankees at 915) although that's partially due to a better performance with runners on base. Their context-neutral runs scored would have been around 50 runs less.

It starts at the top with Chone Figgins, who's a very good overall player. In fact, if you factor in defense and baserunning, he was probably the Angels' most valuable player at around 5.7 WAR despite not having much power. Although noted for his defensive versatility, he's essentially settled in at third base and has shown a very good glove, projected around +9 over a full season.

Our old friend Bobby Abreu had a good year offensively as well, slightly better than he'd be expected to do going forward. He gives the Angels a good OBP at the top of the lineup and has been credited with helping the Angels be a little more patient overall as a team. The Angels saw 3.88 pitches per PA in 2009 compared to 3.65 per PA in 2008, which translates to about 9 extra pitches per game. Defensively, Abreu was better than 2008 with the Yanks, but still bad, and he projects pretty bad going forward.

Torii Hunter had a decent year as well on both sides of the ball, although his projection would be for him to do a little worse in both areas.

Let's consider a player who's probably heading to the Hall of Fame. This player bats cleanup for a very good team and has been an MVP. In the postseason, this player has hit .240/.337/.293 in the postseason in his career. Yet, Chip Caray doesn't seem to feel the need to continually recite those stats. That's what Vlad Guerrero has done in the postseason in his career. It doesn't mean he's a bad postseason player or is unclutch, it just means that he's had 86 bad PAs. Just like it means for another former MVP who's probably heading to the Hall of Fame as well. Guerrero's projection may look a little generous given his 2009 performance, but he did hit .300/.347/.498 after returning from the DL on August 4th.

Juan Rivera and Kendry Morales both had solid years as well. Maicer Izturis is really more of a glove man, although he does project to get on base at a better than league average clip. Mike Napoli's low batting average is probably the reason he doesn't get a lot of credit for being one of the better hitting catchers in baseball, but he is. Erick Aybar's another mostly glove guy, and Howie Kendrick should also get some of the playing time at 2B.

Defensively, you have Figgins, Rivera, Morales, Izturis, Aybar and Kendrick as projected plusses, Hunter a little below average, and then Abreu and Napoli as less than great defenders.

And for the pitching...

Pitcher	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	K	pRA	pERA	pFIP	09ERA	09FIP	sIP	sR
john lackey	SP1	192	191	20	55	153	4.23	3.82	3.78	3.83	3.68	12	5.6
jered weaver	SP2	185	180	23	57	149	4.13	3.94	4.10	3.75	4.09	6	2.8
scott kazmir	SP3	128	115	15	50	128	3.94	3.57	3.87	1.74	2.95	6	2.6
joe saunders	SP4	192	211	25	62	105	4.94	4.61	4.76	4.60	5.17	5	2.7
brian fuentes	CL	62	53	5	22	58	3.94	3.66	3.52	3.93	4.25	3	1.3
ervin santana	SU	72	65	7	24	68	3.91	3.66	3.52	5.03	4.91	3	1.3
darren oliver	SU	70	66	7	20	53	3.74	3.54	3.77	2.71	3.21	3	1.2
jason bulger	MR	59	48	4	24	66	3.18	3.10	2.97	3.56	3.88	3	1.1
kevin jepsen	MR	54	55	3	20	44	4.40	4.08	3.26	4.94	2.96	2	1.0
matt palmer	MR	134	156	16	39	72	5.65	5.35	4.51	3.93	4.71	1	0.6
jose arredondo	MR	68	74	9	26	52	5.44	5.15	4.47	6.00	4.38	1	0.6
sean o'sullivan	LR	119	154	16	21	54	6.84	6.45	4.51	5.92	6.02	0	0.0
Total		45	43	5	15	37	4.18	3.88	3.86				20.9

Lackey gets the nod in Game 1, with Weaver in Game 2 and Kazmir in Game 3. It looks like Ervin Santana will be in the bullpen, so I gave the Game 4 start to Joe Saunders.

Lackey's one of the better pitchers in the league, I had him at 19th in the league in runs saved above replacement level, despite missing 5-6 starts. It could be his last hurrah as an Angel, as he's likely to be the best free agent starting pitcher available in 2010.

Jered Weaver backs up Lackey and he's also a good starter, probably on par with A.J. Burnett as a #2. Although Kazmir's overall 2009 looks ugly, he pitched very well for the Angels after being acquired from Tampa Bay. Looking at all the third starters in the postseason, Kazmir projects better than any of them.

Joe Saunders kind of reminds me of Andy Pettitte. He's going to give up hits and runs, but he'll pitch well enough to keep the Angels in the game most of the time.

The bullpen is going to be interesting to watch. The Angels have almost always had one of the better bullpens in baseball since Mike Scioscia took over, but that's probably not true this year. Brian Fuentes isn't awful, but he's a little shaky and probably not someone you want to see pitching when trying to save a one run lead in Fenway.

The wild card is Ervin Santana. The projection above has been converted to a relief equivalent, but he's got great stuff and could be the Angels' equivalent of Phil Hughes the reliever in the postseason.

The rest of the bullpen isn't too bad, with Darren Oliver, Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen around.

So how good are the Angels?

#games	5
home games	3
#outs	125
offense	27.0
pitching	20.9
defense	0.3
wpct	.631
162 gm equiv	102-60

They're maybe a hair worse than the Yankees and Boston. So if someone tells you they're an 86 win team that got lucky, tell that person they are wrong.

So you have the equivalent of a 102 win team hosting the equivalent of a 106 win team. What happens if they play each other 10,000 times?

Red Sox 59.2%
Angels 40.8%

Ignore those, they're wrong. These are the correct numbers.

Red Sox: 53.1%
Angels: 46.9%

I don't really care who wins, because I think the Yankees can beat either team and lose to either team, so I'm just going to root for a five game series where each game goes 20 innings.