Thursday, January 14, 2010
Javier Vazquez’s Pitch Selection, 2007 - 2009
I was thinking about the likeilhood of Javier Vazquez's 2009 being indicative of a possible change in approach that may mean he's more likely to sustain the gains made, so I pulled his Pitch FX data from 2007 through 2009 to see if it showed anything interesting. Keep in mind that Pitch FX data is not complete from 2007-2009.First, here's a look at his pitch selection, broken down by season and type.
| Type | 2007 | % | 2008 | % | 2009 | % |
| Four-seam fastball | 1368 | 59.0% | 1727 | 54.8% | 1502 | 47.1% |
| Change-up | 350 | 15.1% | 387 | 12.3% | 474 | 14.9% |
| Slider | 365 | 15.8% | 637 | 20.2% | 739 | 23.2% |
| Curveball | 234 | 10.1% | 398 | 12.6% | 472 | 14.8% |
| Total | 2317 | 3149 | 3187 |
This breakdown screams for pie charts, so here they are.
In 2009 Vazquez threw fewer fastballs, while increasing his slider and curveball usage according to these numbers.
This next table just looks at the wOBA against each of the pitches. This only applies when a pitch is the decisive pitch of a plate apearance.
| Type | 2007 | +/- | 2008 | +/- | 2009 | +/- |
| Four-seam fastball | .298 | .013 | .330 | .007 | .298 | .011 |
| Change-up | .295 | .010 | .323 | .001 | .240 | -.047 |
| Slider | .276 | -.008 | .338 | .016 | .295 | .008 |
| Curveball | .221 | -.063 | .274 | -.048 | .276 | -.011 |
| Total | .284 | .322 | .000 | .287 |
The +/- column is just the difference between the wOBA for the specific pitch compared to the overall wOBA hea llowed in that season. So we see in 2009, for example, that he his changeup was his most effective pitch. as batters had a wOBA of .240 against it, compared to his overall wOBA against of .287. A difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 650 PAs.
Lastly, here's a more detailed breakdown of his pitch selection.
| Type (2007) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Fastball | 1296 | 98.2 | 86.0 | 92.5 | 32.7% | 8.6% | 22.8% | 18.6% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 24.1 | 35.4 | 5.2 |
| Four-seam fastball | 72 | 97.0 | 90.1 | 93.4 | 37.5% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 19.4% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 23.6 | 54.0 | 4.8 |
| Change-up | 350 | 89.5 | 59.2 | 82.8 | 35.7% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 24.1 | 22.6 | 7.7 |
| Slider | 365 | 92.4 | 75.5 | 84.8 | 32.6% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 17.3% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 0.3% | 24.2 | -6.9 | 7.6 |
| Curveball | 234 | 82.1 | 65.7 | 75.7 | 38.5% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 21.4% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 24.0 | -13.1 | 12.9 |
| Total | 2317 | 98.2 | 59.2 | 85.8 | 33.9% | 11.0% | 18.5% | 17.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Type (2008) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Fastball | 1693 | 97.1 | 86.0 | 91.8 | 32.5% | 8.2% | 22.3% | 18.1% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 0.1% | 23.7 | 36.2 | 4.6 |
| Four-seam fastball | 34 | 95.4 | 89.0 | 92.6 | 35.3% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 8.8% | 23.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 23.6 | 53.1 | 5.0 |
| Change-up | 387 | 89.6 | 72.4 | 81.9 | 35.7% | 16.3% | 17.1% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 23.8 | 21.1 | 7.2 |
| Slider | 637 | 90.8 | 77.6 | 84.6 | 29.2% | 14.4% | 20.3% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 4.7% | 0.2% | 23.8 | -6.0 | 7.3 |
| Curveball | 398 | 84.6 | 63.5 | 74.0 | 33.7% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 23.8 | -13.4 | 13.1 |
| Total | 3149 | 97.1 | 63.5 | 85.0 | 32.4% | 10.6% | 20.3% | 16.7% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Type (2009) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Four-seam fastball | 1502 | 94.8 | 85.3 | 91.2 | 29.2% | 8.4% | 20.9% | 21.6% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 0.1% | 23.8 | 31.9 | 4.7 |
| Change-up | 474 | 88.1 | 70.8 | 80.2 | 38.0% | 21.5% | 12.9% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 23.8 | 20.2 | 7.5 |
| Slider | 739 | 89.7 | 68.9 | 83.1 | 30.7% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 19.6% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 23.9 | -8.2 | 7.9 |
| Curveball | 472 | 82.2 | 64.0 | 72.5 | 29.7% | 17.8% | 10.6% | 21.6% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 23.8 | -12.6 | 13.8 |
| Total | 3187 | 94.8 | 64.0 | 81.8 | 30.9% | 12.9% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
break_y: the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs(definition taken from this site
break_angle: the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively;
break_length: the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory.
Because of the league switch, I don't know how much I'd read into some of the peripheral improvements we see in his 2009 line.
Anyway, I'm not sure how much this tells us, but I figured it beats talking about signing Reed Johnson.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
AL East Clinch Date Probability Pie Chart for September 27, 2009
Update: As requested, here are the AL Central divisional odds in pie chart form.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
MLB Monte Carlo Playoff Odds As Of September 22, 2008 (plus PIE CHARTS!)
| Last Upate | 9/23/2009 | |||||
| Iterations | 10,000 | |||||
| Team | W | Div | WC | PL | Max | Min |
| Yankees | 101.9 | 98.3% | 1.7% | 100.0% | 106 | 96 |
| Angels | 96.3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 101 | 92 |
| Phillies | 95.4 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100 | 90 |
| Cardinals | 94.6 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 99 | 90 |
| Dodgers | 98.1 | 99.1% | 1.0% | 100.0% | 102 | 92 |
| Red Sox | 96.3 | 1.7% | 98.2% | 99.9% | 101 | 91 |
| Rockies | 91.8 | 1.0% | 91.9% | 92.9% | 97 | 87 |
| Tigers | 86.6 | 80.8% | 0.0% | 80.8% | 92 | 80 |
| Twins | 83.9 | 19.2% | 0.0% | 19.2% | 89 | 79 |
| Braves | 87.9 | 0.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 92 | 83 |
| Giants | 87.2 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 92 | 82 |
| Marlins | 85.9 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 91 | 81 |
| Rangers | 87.5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 93 | 83 |
W: Projected wins
Div: Division title percentage
WC: Wild card percentage
PL: Div + WC
| Win Total | % |
| 96 | 0.1% |
| 97 | 0.3% |
| 98 | 1.1% |
| 99 | 4.3% |
| 100 | 12.9% |
| 101 | 21.0% |
| 102 | 24.7% |
| 103 | 19.8% |
| 104 | 12.2% |
| 105 | 3.1% |
| 106 | 0.5% |
| Date | % |
| 9/26/2009 | 12.5% |
| 9/27/2009 | 18.8% |
| 9/28/2009 | 22.6% |
| 9/29/2009 | 19.3% |
| 9/30/2009 | 13.8% |
| 10/1/2009 | 1.9% |
| 10/2/2009 | 5.5% |
| 10/3/2009 | 3.4% |
| 10/4/2009 | 2.2% |
Thursday, September 10, 2009
When Might the Yankees Clinch the AL East (if they do)?
A few weeks back, I got an email from a reader who wondered if I could give him the probability of the Yankees clinching the division on certain dates. With a little bit of tweaking, I was able to rig my Monte Carlo simulator to do just that. I didn't want to post about it then because of the whole jinx/karma thing, but I think I can post it now.Again, this is only IF the Yankees somehow manage to win the AL East against a clearly better Red Sox team. Nothing is decided yet.
| Date | % |
| 9/19/2009 | 0.1% |
| 9/20/2009 | 0.8% |
| 9/21/2009 | 2.4% |
| 9/22/2009 | 6.1% |
| 9/23/2009 | 9.8% |
| 9/24/2009 | 5.0% |
| 9/25/2009 | 18.1% |
| 9/26/2009 | 16.5% |
| 9/27/2009 | 13.4% |
| 9/28/2009 | 10.6% |
| 9/29/2009 | 7.3% |
| 9/30/2009 | 4.8% |
| 10/1/2009 | 1.0% |
| 10/2/2009 | 2.1% |
| 10/3/2009 | 1.2% |
| 10/4/2009 | 0.8% |
Hmm, clinching at home against Boston on Friday, September 25 has the hightest probability right now. That'd be fun.
For all you pie chart freaks, here's how that looks in pie chart form.
And updating last week's post about win probabailities:
| Win Totals | % |
| 97 | 0.3% |
| 98 | 0.7% |
| 99 | 1.8% |
| 100 | 4.6% |
| 101 | 8.2% |
| 102 | 12.5% |
| 103 | 16.5% |
| 104 | 18.6% |
| 105 | 15.6% |
| 106 | 10.8% |
| 107 | 6.2% |
| 108 | 3.1% |
| 109 | 0.9% |
| 110 | 0.3% |
Yeah, there's a 2.8% chance this team WON'T win at least 100 games. I like that.
If the Yankees go 10-11 from here on out, Boston would have to go 20-3 to tie them.
Friday, September 4, 2009
2009 Season-Ending Win Total Probabilities Pie Chart
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Quality Starts Pie Chart through Games of August 17, 2009
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Robinson Cano vs. AL Avg 2B Daily Zone Rating Graph Through Games of July 21, 2009
Update: Added Jeter and Teixeira as requested by cschanck:
Update part deux: Percentage of ZR fieldable chances hit to each Yankee player (combined for all positions played)
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Offense Pie Charts Through Games of June 27, 2009
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted)
Outs: Duh.
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