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- Rob Neyer, ESPN.com
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John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain's family. He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need. I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.

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Does Robinson Cano’s Approach Change With Men on Base?
(50 Comments - 1/26/2010 10:44:25 am)

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.2
(14 Comments - 1/25/2010 10:56:33 pm)

One Of The Following Stories May or May Not Be True
(26 Comments - 1/25/2010 1:51:23 pm)

What Happened to Wang?
(13 Comments - 1/24/2010 11:53:14 pm)

NY Times - Glanville: Seeing is Disbelieving
(62 Comments - 1/24/2010 9:27:27 pm)

RealGM Baseball: Yankees Among Teams Interested In Edmonds
(3 Comments - 1/23/2010 4:52:40 pm)

Should Jesus Montero Be an Option for Left Field?
(65 Comments - 1/22/2010 10:24:20 am)

CAIRO Projected 2010 AL East Standings as of January 16
(35 Comments - 1/21/2010 2:53:01 pm)

MLB.com - Bauman: Yankees appear stronger
(18 Comments - 1/21/2010 5:21:26 am)

TSBG Versus High and Low Fastballs
(5 Comments - 1/20/2010 9:00:27 am)


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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Should Jesus Montero Be an Option for Left Field?

Since the question came up in the prior thread, let’s see if the Yankees should at least consider using Jesus Montero in the outfield.

Obviously, we should know that:

a) We don’t know how he’d look defensively in the outfield.
b) Offense from a catcher is far more valuable than similar offense from an outfielder.
c) Montero’s still really young, and although he’s a very good hitting prospect, he probably still doesn’t project all that well in general in 2010 because of where he is in his development.
d) There’s a fair amount of uncertainty that Montero will ever be a good enough defensive catcher to stay there in the majors, although his performance in 2009 was somewhat promising in that regard.
e) A catcher is simply not going to be able to play as frequently as someone at a less demanding position.

Here’s something that we may or may not know. According to research done by Tangotiger in the 2009 Hardball Times Annual, the average catcher will hit about 12% better when he’s not playing catcher. This is pretty significant, and goes above and beyond any typical positional adjustments made for catchers.

So what does this all mean for Jesus Montero? Let’s see…

First up, here's Montero's 2010 CAIRO projection as a catcher.

%	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
80%	126	525	493	59	139	29	2	26	75	38	67	1	1	0	9	.282	.340	.511	80	34	.366
65%	123	510	479	54	129	26	2	23	69	34	70	2	1	0	11	.270	.325	.478	70	25	.346
Baseline	120	500	470	49	121	23	1	21	63	31	73	3	1	0	12	.258	.310	.444	61	17	.327
35%	114	475	446	43	110	20	1	17	57	27	73	2	0	0	10	.247	.292	.413	51	10	.305
20%	108	450	423	38	99	17	1	15	50	23	73	1	0	0	8	.235	.273	.382	42	3	.284
2009	92	376	354	33	96	19	1	14	55	21	59	1	0	0	9	.271	.314	.449	47	14	.329

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

In the interest of full disclosure, that projection is pretty optimistic. Some of his other projections are:
CHONE: .255/.296/.425, .314 wOBA.
ZiPS: .273/.315/.416, .320 wOBA.

In actuality though, CAIRO is not the most optimistic projection I've seen on Montero. The Hardball Times projections (which are not yet publically available) have him projected at .291/.342/.501, .345 wOBA.

So if CAIRO's the baseline, then CHONE says he'd be seven runs worse over 500 PAs, ZiPS says he'd be four runs worse, and the Hardball Times projection says he'd be seven runs better. Since we're really just comparing Montero to himself, the projection we use isn't that important right now, so I'll stick with CAIRO.

So looking at the offense from a catcher being more valuable, if Montero's projected CAIRO baseline would be worth 17 runs above a replacement level catcher over 500 PAs, if we moved that same offense to LF it'd be worth close to a win less overall. However, if we assume that he can play more frequently as a LF, he can gain some of that value back. If we then also consider the fact that he may hit better by not playing catcher, he picks up some more value. If he can instead hit his 65% forecast and get 600 PAs, he's worth 19 BRAR in LF, compared to 17 BRAR in 500 PAs as a catcher.

Given the margin of error inherent in projections, I'd say a projected difference of 2 BRAR isn't very significant, and we can just say he'd probably be about equally valuable in either scenario.

So then the question becomes twofold. How would his defense look at either position? Frankly I'd be talking out of my ass if I tried to put numbers to that right now. Then the next question is, given the talent on hand in the organization, is catcher or left field the bigger area of need? Given the depth of the Yankee catching prospects in the minors right now as well as the dearth of outfield prospects, you could possibly make the argument that Montero in LF would fill a bigger need.

Of course, if he can't play the outfield it's moot. Or if he can't stick at catcher it's also moot.

--Posted at 12:16 pm by SG / 65 Comments | - (1658)

Thursday, December 3, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Mariano F’ing Rivera

Who better to close out the 2009 season reviews with than the guy who’s closed so many Yankee victories over the last 12 seasons?

Projection systems aren't designed to handle someone like Mariano Rivera, who consistently exceeds his projections. Here's how Mo projected heading into 2009.

mariano rivera	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	66	59	23	21	4	12	63	2.86	2.64	12	20	161.9%	89.8%
2009 marcel projection	66	58	24	23	5	15	58	3.09	3.08	10	19	175.1%	104.7%
2009 pecota projection	66	57	20	18	4	12	64	2.42	2.54	15	24	137.3%	86.3%
2009 tht projection	66	55	20	19	4	12	63	2.52	2.57	15	23	142.8%	87.2%
2009 zips projection	66	55	18	17	3	9	64	2.28	2.24	16	25	129.4%	76.3%
2009 cairo projection	66	53	19	18	4	11	61	2.38	2.61	16	24	134.8%	88.7%
2009 average projection	66	56	21	19	4	12	62	2.59	2.61	14	22	146.9%	88.8%
2009 actual	66	48	14	13	7	12	72	1.76	2.94	20	28

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

Rivera's projections were all pretty close to each other, with Marcel the major outlier. Rivera managed to better his projections in his K rate and his hit rate as well as his ERA, although he gave up more home runs than projected. It's probably worth noting that five of those seven HRs allowed came in his first 17 appearances. In those first 17 appearances, Rivera had an ERA of 3.06, and opponents hit .264/.274/.472 against him. Over his next six appearances he continued to struggle somewhat, with a 4.76 ERA and a .292/.320/.417 opponent's line. Around that time, Joe Girardi made comments that Rivera had not yet fully recovered his arm strength after last off-season's shoulder surgery, but let's see what Pitch F/X says.

Type (through June 6)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %	break_y	break_angle	break_length
Cut fastball	319	94.0	87.9	91.2	28.8%	7.5%	24.5%	21.6%	11.6%	4.4%	0.0%	23.8	-11.8	4.9
Four-seam fastball	56	93.4	89.4	91.3	46.4%	5.4%	12.5%	16.1%	7.1%	8.9%	0.0%	23.8	4.9	5.8
Total	375	94.0	87.9	91.3	31.5%	7.2%	22.7%	20.8%	10.9%	5.1%	0.0%

Type (June 7 through end of season)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %	break_y	break_angle	break_length
Cut fastball	731	94.2	86.4	91.2	31.3%	8.5%	21.6%	20.5%	13.8%	2.7%	0.1%	23.8	-14.3	5.1
Four-seam fastball	178	94.5	86.8	91.1	41.6%	6.7%	27.0%	12.4%	7.9%	3.9%	0.0%	23.9	-2.0	5.6
Total	909	94.5	86.4	91.1	33.3%	8.1%	22.7%	18.9%	12.7%	3.0%	0.1%

#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
break_y: the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs(definition taken from this site)
break_angle: the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively;
break_length: the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory.

Not a whole lot of difference in terms of velocity here, although it looks like Mo started getting better break on the cutter.

From June 7 through the end of the season, Rivera had a 0.84 ERA, holding opposing batters to a line of .149/.208/.216.

Mo showed that even if he's lost a tick or two off the cutter, he can continue to be one of the best closers in the game. After another stellar postseason where Rivera pitched 16 innings and allowed just one earned run, he said he wants to pitch for five more years, which would take him through age 44. Dennis Eckersely and Doug Jones were both able to pitch through age 43, and neither was as good as Rivera was at age 39, so I wouldn't bet against him.

--Posted at 7:31 am by SG / 137 Comments | - (338)

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez

It doesn’t seem like doing a season in review and skipping the three and four hitters is a good idea.

For much of the offseason, the non-courtship of Mark Teixeira by the Yankees was somewhat frustrating. The Yankees had an obvious hole at first base, and had a chance to get arguably the second best overall first baseman in baseball to fill it, and they would not have to surrender any talent from the organization to do it. With Teixeira still being under 30, he'd also help the team get younger, as well as better defensively.

As Christmas 2008 approached, it seemed like Teixeira to the Red Sox was just a case of dotting the i's and crossing the t's. This would have made Boston the clear favorites in a tight AL East. However, over a span of a few hours, reports started coming in that the Yankees and Teixeira were actually talking, with Jon Heyman eventually being the first to confirm that the Yankees and Teixeira had agreed to a deal. Being Scott Boras's sock puppet has its advantages.

As we know, Teixeira was a key part of the team's regular season success, even if he SCUFFLED a bit in the postseason. Here's how Teix performed compared to his projections.

mark teixeira	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std
2009 chone projection	707	613	175	36	1	35	2	0	89	119	.286	.381	.521	108	.374	.335	.354	.393	.413
2009 marcel projection	707	604	177	41	1	32	2	0	90	119	.292	.393	.522	110	.381	.341	.361	.400	.420
2009 pecota projection	707	607	174	38	1	31	2	1	87	113	.287	.379	.506	104	.367	.328	.348	.387	.406
2009 tht projection	707	612	175	40	0	33	1	1	88	118	.287	.383	.513	106	.373	.333	.353	.392	.412
2009 zips projection	707	607	177	41	1	31	2	0	92	115	.292	.392	.517	109	.379	.339	.359	.398	.418
2009 cairo projection	707	605	176	40	1	34	2	0	90	117	.291	.387	.528	110	.378	.339	.358	.397	.417
2009 average projection	707	608	176	39	1	33	2	0	89	117	.289	.386	.518	108	.375	.336	.356	.395	.414
2009 actuals	707	609	178	43	3	39	2	0	81	114	.292	.383	.565	116	.384	.345	.365	.404	.424

BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)

He hit more homers than projected and walked a bit less, but aside from that he did what he was projected to do. Teix took advantage of DNYS like most Yankees, as he hit 24 of his 39 HRs at home and hit .312/.387/.627, compared to .272/.380/.502 on the road. Part of that is the fact that the majority of players hit better at home regardless, so don't think this means he's a park illusion.

He wasn't the MVP in the AL (then again, neither was Joe Mauer). He probably wasn't even the most valuable Yankee, as Derek Jeter and CC Sabathia have cases for being more valuable. Still, he was a very good player on the best team in baseball.

Across the diamond, Alex Rodriguez had about as bad of an offseason as you could imagine for a baseball player. First came the reports and admission of his use of PEDs. Now branded with the scarlet S in a sport that's been as pure as Ivory soap otherwise, Rodriguez had to hold a press conference for damage control, just like Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte did. Other press conferences of note, Brian Roberts, Troy Glaus and Jose Guillen. Oh wait, only the Yankees are required to give steroid press conferences...

As if that wasn't bad enough, there then came the news that Rodriguez's entire season was in jeopardy due to a torn labrum in his hip. I think it was at this point that Rodriguez started to get treated a little differently by the media and fans. The prospect of losing him for the entire season may have finally caused the clowns who said the Yankees would be better off without him to realize, no, they would be worse. Much worse. Like 6-7 wins worse.

The news turned out to not be as dire as initially reported, as Rodriguez was able to have a less extensive surgery that allowed him to return in May. When that happened, the Yankees effectively took off after SCUFFLING for the first 29 games of the season (12-17).

alex rodriguez	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std
2009 chone projection	535	457	134	23	1	33	13	3	69	105	.294	.397	.564	119	.394	.349	.372	.417	.440
2009 marcel projection	535	456	132	24	1	30	14	3	64	104	.289	.379	.545	113	.376	.331	.354	.399	.421
2009 pecota projection	535	460	130	25	1	26	16	4	62	107	.282	.373	.508	106	.365	.320	.342	.387	.410
2009 tht projection	535	460	134	25	0	32	14	4	64	103	.292	.392	.552	117	.388	.343	.366	.411	.434
2009 zips projection	535	457	134	25	0	31	14	3	65	103	.292	.395	.549	117	.389	.344	.367	.412	.435
2009 cairo projection	535	453	134	24	0	30	14	3	67	104	.296	.398	.553	118	.391	.345	.368	.414	.437
2009 average projection	535	457	133	24	1	30	14	3	65	104	.291	.389	.545	115	.384	.339	.361	.407	.429
2009 actuals	535	444	127	17	1	30	14	2	80	97	.286	.402	.532	115	.388	.343	.366	.411	.434

Although he didn't play as often as projected, he ended up just about as valuable as projected on a rate basis, with a few more walks and few less doubles. He also K'd a bit less than projected, which may or may not mean anything. Most of the projections were pretty close.

Of course, what happened in the regular season was nice, but the story of Rodriguez's 2009 will be his tremendous effort in the postseason. Rodriguez hit .365./.500/.808 in 68 postseason PAs, with 6 HRs and 18 RBI. His game-tying bottom of the ninth two-run HR off Joe Nathan in ALDS Game 2 may have been the biggest hit of his Yankee career at the time. Then, he hit ANOTHER bottom of the ninth game-tying HR off Brian Fuentes in ALCS Game 2. Although he didn't have a great World Series, his two-run instant replay HR with the Yankees trailing 3-0 helped the Yanks to rally and take Game Three.

So now, he can't be called A-Fraud or A-Freud. Well, he could, but whoever does it is going to sound dumb. I guess A-Roid is still on the table. The brilliance of that is they change his nickname to reference the fact that he used steroids. Subtle, yet ingenious.

So yeah, the Yankee corner IF was great in 2009.

--Posted at 9:50 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (215)

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the Defense

As requested, here’s a look at how Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the overall team defense did compared to their projections.

After a 2008 season that saw him get to AA, Cervelli was still probably off the radar for 2009 despite a brief cameo at the end of 2008. However, injuries forced him into the picture, and he ended up getting 101 PAs. Here are his projections entering 2009, pro-rated to those 101 PAs.

francisco cervelli	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	101	92	20	4	1	1	1	0	8	25	.223	.296	.304	53	.268	.174	.221	.315	.362	95.3%
2009 marcel projection	101	90	25	5	1	3	2	1	9	18	.272	.337	.422	82	.321	.221	.271	.370	.420	114.2%
2009 pecota projection	101	90	21	5	0	1	1	0	8	24	.229	.300	.335	60	.277	.182	.229	.324	.372	98.5%
2009 tht projection	101	91	21	5	0	1	1	0	8	18	.236	.315	.321	59	.284	.188	.236	.332	.380	101.1%
2009 zips projection	101	90	21	4	0	1	1	1	7	18	.236	.317	.304	56	.281	.186	.234	.329	.377	100.2%
2009 cairo projection	101	91	22	5	0	1	0	0	7	21	.240	.314	.326	61	.284	.188	.236	.332	.380	101.2%
2009 average projection	101	90	22	5	0	1	1	0	8	21	.239	.313	.335	62	.286	.190	.238	.334	.382	101.8%
2009 actuals	101	94	28	4	0	1	0	3	2	11	.298	.309	.372	55	.281	.185	.233	.329	.376

Cervelli had shown pretty good plate discipline in the minors, but it deserted him in the majors. Despite that, he was able to come fairly close to his projected OBP because he hit six more singles. That also explains why he was able to exceed his SLG by a fair amount.

The .298 average is nice, but it was sort of empty, and it's doubtful he'll be able to replicate the same type of performance in 2010 if he has to rely on hitting .298 to do it. The good news is he should walk a little more and he's still going to be just 24, so he has room for growth in his offensive game. While it's probably unlikely he'll be more than a backup, he should be a decent one, especially if the good defense he showed in 2009 carries forward.

Sort of like Cervelli, Ramiro Pena hadn't gotten past AA prior to 2009, and he hadn't really impressed there either, slugging a monstrous .297 in 2008 for Trenton. Pena's calling card isn't his bat though, it's his glove. In a surprise, he made the Yankees on opening day as a backup IF, since Alex Rodriguez was out rehabbing his hip and the only other backup IF on the roster was Angel Berroa.

Because of Pena's unimpressive minor league resume, his projections were unimpressive.

ramiro pena	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	121	113	26	4	1	0	2	1	8	25	.233	.284	.297	48	.258	.173	.215	.300	.342	86.7%
2009 marcel projection	121	110	25	5	0	2	1	0	8	20	.224	.272	.320	50	.255	.170	.212	.297	.339	85.7%
2009 pecota projection	121	108	24	4	0	1	1	0	10	16	.223	.285	.286	47	.255	.171	.213	.297	.339	85.8%
2009 tht projection	121	113	25	4	1	1	1	1	7	22	.224	.276	.291	45	.252	.168	.210	.294	.336	84.8%
2009 zips projection	121	114	26	3	0	0	4	2	6	16	.224	.269	.263	39	.240	.158	.199	.282	.323	80.9%
2009 cairo projection	121	112	26	4	1	1	1	1	7	21	.232	.282	.290	46	.255	.171	.213	.297	.340	85.9%
2009 average projection	121	112	25	4	1	1	2	1	8	20	.227	.278	.291	46	.252	.168	.210	.295	.337	85.0%
2009 actuals	121	115	33	6	1	1	4	1	5	20	.287	.317	.383	71	.297	.208	.253	.342	.386

Like Cervelli, Pena hit more and walked less than expected. However, he did show a little more pop than projected, with two extra doubles. Obviously when we're dealing with sample sizes like this we shouldn't try to infer too much about what it means going forward, but Pena's final line in 2009 was better than replacement level, and would have made him about a win better than replacement level on offense if he had done it over 650 PAs.

So, how about the Yankee defense?

Since I started blogging in 2004, there's been one recurring theme with the Yankees. Their defense has generally been bad to awful. While you can hit and pitch well enough to overcome that, it can be frustrating to watch players not making plays other players can make.

When the Yankees let Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi go and replaced them with Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, that alone looked like a pretty decent defensive upgrade. Here's how the defense projected heading into 2009 compared to what they actually ended up doing.

Player	Pos	pZR	pUZR	pRAA	zRSAA	uRSAA	aRSAA	diff
Jorge Posada	C			-5			-10	-5
Jose Molina	C			2	-2	-2	-2	-4
Francisco Cervelli	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	2
Kevin Cash	C	0	0	0	-1	-1	-1	-1
Mark Teixeira	1B	5	2	3	8	-4	2	-1
Juan Miranda	1B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Robinson Cano	2B	2	-2	0	-2	-5	-3	-4
Alex Rodriguez	3B	-2	-1	-2	-6	-9	-7	-6
Cody Ransom	3B	0	0	0	-4	-4	-4	-4
Angel Berroa	3B	0	0	0	0	-3	-1	-1
Melky Cabrera	CF	2	-2	0	0	-2	-1	-1
Brett Gardner	CF	1	2	1	0	7	4	2
Johnny Damon	LF	-1	4	2	0	-9	-5	-6
Freddy Guzman	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Swisher	RF	1	1	1	-4	-1	-3	-4
Eric Hinske	RF	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
Xavier Nady	RF	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	0
Shelley Duncan	RF	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0
Derek Jeter	SS	-5	-5	-5	-2	7	2	7
Ramiro Pena	SS	0	0	0	-2	1	0	0
Total				-2			-27	-25

pZR: Projected runs saved above average according to zone rating, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pUZR: Projected runs saved above average according to UZR, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pRAA: Average of pZR and pUZR
zRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to zone rating
uRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to UZR
aRSAA: Average of zRSAA and uRSAA
diff: aRSAA - pRAA (negative means worse than projected)

The Yankee defense actually didn't play as well as projected, with the primary culprits being Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa's contributions also didn't really help. On the plus side, Derek Jeter was seven runs better than projected and Brett Gardner was two runs better.

Last year's team was about 40 runs below average, so at the very least they were better than that.

Interestingly, I completely forgot to do a season review for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, so I'll post that next, then Mo's and then that should wrap up the backwards-looking stuff for now.

--Posted at 8:54 am by SG / 101 Comments | - (346)

Monday, November 30, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Phil Coke, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves

The Yankee bullpen started out shakily in 2009, with pitchers like Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez unable to follow up on their good 2008 performances. Here are some of the key stats for the Yankee bullpen through May 9.

ERA: 6.22
FIP: 6.00
CERA: 5.57
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .266/.355/.506
HR/9: 2.11
BB/9: 4.48
K/9: 8.79

From May 10 on, here’s how the pen performed.

ERA: 3.37
FIP: 4.07
CERA: 3.34
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .222/.295/.365
HR/9: 1.06
BB/9: 3.24
K/9: 8.36

We’ve already covered Phil Hughes, so now I’ll look at Phil Coke, David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves.

phil coke	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	60	60	31	28	7	24	56	4.25	3.96	2	9	94.5%	83.7%
2009 marcel projection	60	56	28	26	6	21	47	3.94	3.89	4	11	87.5%	82.1%
2009 pecota projection	60	67	36	33	7	24	43	4.99	4.43	-3	4	111.0%	93.7%
2009 tht projection	60	68	39	36	9	29	37	5.44	5.33	-6	1	120.9%	112.6%
2009 zips projection	60	66	35	33	7	25	37	4.91	4.72	-3	5	109.1%	99.7%
2009 cairo projection	60	78	41	39	8	12	35	5.82	4.33	-9	-1	129.3%	91.4%
2009 average projection	60	66	35	33	7	23	43	4.89	4.44	-3	5	108.7%	93.9%
2009 actual	60	44	34	30	10	20	49	4.50	4.73	0	8

*Coke's projections were primarily as a starter, so I converted them to a relief equivalent.

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

Although his last appearance of the season was a disaster, Phil Coke was pretty good for most of 2009. As a lefty-reliever, his primary job is to get left-handed hitters out. That's something he's done 77.9% of the time in his major league career, which is the good news. The bad news is he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and allowed 10 HRs in 60 innings. The major difference with Coke pitching to righties versus lefties is his BB rate. RHB have hit .202 against him and have slugged .367 against him in his career, good for an ISO(SLG - AVG) of .165. LHB have hit .197 with a .349 SLG, good for an ISO of .152. Coke's walked 16 of the 127 RHB he's faced, compared to 6 of the 163 LHB he's faced.

I know a lot of Yankee fans don't trust him, but I see no reason he can't be an effective second lefty out of the pen.

david robertson	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	44	40	21	20	5	21	47	4.08	3.99	2	8	123.7%	129.4%
2009 marcel projection	44	43	23	22	4	17	38	4.50	3.95	0	5	136.6%	128.0%
2009 pecota projection	44	36	20	18	3	22	48	3.62	3.40	4	10	109.9%	110.1%
2009 tht projection	44	40	21	20	5	21	47	4.08	3.99	2	8	123.8%	129.4%
2009 zips projection	44	41	22	20	2	24	38	4.13	3.78	2	7	125.2%	122.4%
2009 cairo projection	44	39	18	17	3	12	39	3.47	3.04	5	10	105.2%	98.6%
2009 average projection	44	40	21	19	4	20	43	3.98	3.69	3	8	120.7%	119.7%
2009 actual	44	36	19	16	4	23	63	3.30	3.09	6	11

Robertson's projections were decent, but he ended up exceeding them. The biggest thing was the bump in his strikeout rate, as he K'd about 20 more batters over his average projection pro-rated to the 44 innings he pitched. Among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings in 2009, Robertson's K/9 rate of 12.98 was second in baseball, behind Jonathan Broxton.

I'm a little concerned about the late season issue that shut Robertson down for most of September, primarily because of how sporadically he was used in the postseason. That tells me that there was at least some lingering concern about his health. As long as that's not an ongoing problem, Robertson's emergence should allow the Yankees to at least try and use both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the rotation, with the hope that Robertson and Damaso Marte can serve as setup men and someone from the farm like Mark Melancon and/or Edwar Ramirez can take Robertson's 2009 role in 2010.

alfredo aceves	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	84	82	39	37	12	30	63	3.93	4.64	5	16	111.2%	126.1%
2009 marcel projection	84	71	31	29	9	32	68	3.06	4.12	13	24	86.6%	112.1%
2009 pecota projection	84	82	40	37	11	30	60	3.99	4.62	5	15	113.0%	125.7%
2009 tht projection	84	82	40	37	12	30	63	3.93	4.64	5	16	111.2%	126.1%
2009 zips projection	84	85	42	38	14	24	51	4.12	4.96	4	14	116.6%	134.8%
2009 cairo projection	84	75	38	36	11	13	52	3.83	4.15	6	17	108.5%	112.8%
2009 average projection	84	79	38	36	12	27	60	3.81	4.52	6	17	107.8%	122.9%
2009 actual	84	69	36	33	10	16	69	3.54	3.68	9	20

*Like Coke, Aceves's projections were primarily as a starter so I converted them to a relief equivalency.

Aceves emerged as one of the Yankees' most important relievers and a had a very good season even though he tailed off at the end. His ERA got as low as 2.02 on July 5. He then started a game against Minnesota on July 9 and scuffled the rest of the way (4.91 ERA). While it's a nice and convenient end point to look at that start and blame it for Aceves's year-end tailing off, a deeper look at the numbers removing that start shows this:

Split	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	HBP	ERA	FIP	CERA
Through Jul 5	40.0	30	10	9	8	34	5	2	2.03	3.88	2.81
July 18-Oct 3	40.7	35	22	21	8	33	4	3	4.65	3.67	3.21
Total	81	65	32	30	16	67	9	5	3.35	3.77	3.01

Aceves didn't really pitch all that much differently before or after the start. The primary difference was five extra singles, and 12 extra runs allowed. His final overall line is reasonably close to what it should have been given his peripherals, maybe a touch better.

While the Yankees have supposedly asked Aceves to prepare to come into spring training as a starter, it's more likely he'll be in the pen again in 2010 depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out, and he should be an asset there again just like he was in 2009.

I'm going to do one more of these for Mariano Rivera, but I think I'm going to skip the bench and scrubs unless there's a demand for it. Then we can dive into Hot Stove GM mode.

--Posted at 7:59 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (318)

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain

While the big free agent signings and high-salaried players on the team are generally the main focus, the Yankees did get some help from players they developed through their farm system. Two examples of that are Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain. Let’s see how Melky and Joba did compared to their projections.

After a nice first full season where Melky put up a pretty good .360 OBP at age 21, came two subsequent seasons where he declined. It's generally not a good thing to get worse at an age when you should be getting better, so 2009 was a big season for Melky. Brett Gardner won the spring training competition for CF, which meant Melky would start the year as Gardner's platoon partner as well as being as a backup for Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady.

Nady was lost for the season after six games, and Melky slowly started to wrest some of Gardner's playing time, eventually taking back the starting CF job.

Here are his projections entering 2009 and then his actual performance.

melky cabrera	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	540	491	137	24	4	10	12	5	46	67	.280	.345	.402	80	.322	.279	.301	.344	.365	101.6%
2009 marcel projection	540	482	131	21	3	9	11	3	44	68	.271	.330	.383	74	.307	.264	.286	.328	.349	96.7%
2009 pecota projection	540	487	130	21	3	9	11	5	41	68	.267	.324	.376	71	.302	.259	.280	.323	.344	95.0%
2009 tht projection	540	495	134	22	3	8	11	3	41	69	.270	.331	.376	73	.308	.265	.287	.329	.350	97.1%
2009 zips projection	540	497	132	20	5	10	12	4	39	67	.265	.324	.383	72	.305	.263	.284	.326	.347	96.1%
2009 cairo projection	540	485	130	21	4	9	10	4	42	68	.268	.325	.382	72	.303	.261	.282	.324	.346	95.6%
2009 average projection	540	489	132	21	4	9	11	4	42	68	.270	.330	.384	73	.308	.265	.287	.329	.350	97.0%
2009 actuals	540	485	133	28	1	13	10	2	43	59	.274	.333	.416	81	.317	.274	.296	.339	.360

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	566	515	144	25	4	10	13	5	48	70	.280	.345	.402	80
2009 marcel projection	488	436	118	19	3	8	10	3	40	61	.271	.330	.383	74
2009 pecota projection	484	436	116	19	3	8	10	4	37	61	.267	.324	.376	71
2009 tht projection	525	481	130	21	3	8	11	3	40	67	.270	.331	.376	73
2009 zips projection	553	509	135	20	5	10	12	4	40	69	.265	.324	.383	72
2009 cairo projection	523	469	126	20	4	9	9	4	41	66	.268	.325	.382	72
2009 average projection	523	474	128	21	4	9	11	4	41	66	.270	.330	.384	73
2009 actuals	540	485	133	28	1	13	10	2	43	59	.274	.336	.416	81

joba chamberlain	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	157	137	64	59	14	61	174	3.39	3.30	19	39	71.3%	70.3%
2009 marcel projection	157	139	59	54	11	57	163	3.07	3.14	25	45	64.7%	66.9%
2009 pecota projection	157	135	59	54	10	60	169	3.09	3.05	25	44	65.1%	64.9%
2009 tht projection	157	129	60	56	13	61	175	3.20	3.19	23	42	67.4%	68.0%
2009 zips projection	157	152	71	66	14	62	155	3.77	3.61	13	32	79.4%	76.9%
2009 cairo projection	157	149	65	60	14	54	161	3.45	3.36	18	38	72.6%	71.5%
2009 average projection	157	140	63	58	13	59	166	3.33	3.27	20	40	70.1%	69.8%
2009 actual	157	167	94	83	21	76	133	4.75	4.69	-4	15

joba chamberlain	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	101	88	41	38	9	39	112	3.39	3.30	13	25	71.3%	70.3%
2009 marcel projection	85	75	32	29	6	31	88	3.07	3.14	14	24	64.7%	66.9%
2009 pecota projection	124	107	47	43	8	47	133	3.09	3.05	19	35	65.1%	64.9%
2009 tht projection	100	82	38	36	8	39	111	3.20	3.19	14	27	67.4%	68.0%
2009 zips projection	131	127	59	55	12	52	129	3.77	3.61	11	27	79.4%	76.9%
2009 cairo projection	117	111	49	45	11	40	120	3.45	3.36	14	28	72.6%	71.5%
2009 average projection	110	98	44	41	9	41	116	3.33	3.27	14	28	70.1%	69.8%
2009 actual	157	167	94	83	21	76	133	4.75	4.69	-4	15

Type (as a starter in 2008)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %
Fastball	715	100.2	89.8	95.1	36.9%	6.0%	20.1%	20.3%	10.6%	4.2%	0.1%
Slider	248	89.2	80.5	85.3	27.0%	26.2%	12.1%	14.5%	9.3%	4.0%	0.4%
Curveball	126	86.0	72.8	78.2	38.1%	5.6%	7.1%	34.9%	6.3%	3.2%	0.0%
Change-up	28	89.3	80.9	83.5	35.7%	14.3%	21.4%	7.1%	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%
Total	1117	100.2	72.8	85.5	34.8%	10.7%	16.9%	20.3%	9.8%	4.2%	0.2%
Type (as a starter in 2009)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %
Four-seam fastball	1711	97.6	87.0	92.5	40.9%	3.3%	15.7%	20.2%	12.1%	4.3%	0.4%
Slider	514	92.2	75.0	84.6	27.4%	18.1%	12.3%	18.7%	11.3%	4.5%	0.4%
Curveball	329	92.0	73.0	79.3	39.5%	14.9%	8.5%	21.3%	7.0%	1.8%	0.6%
Change-up	129	87.6	77.4	82.3	39.5%	12.4%	13.2%	14.0%	10.1%	7.0%	0.0%
Total	2683	97.6	73.0	84.7	38.1%	8.0%	14.0%	19.7%	11.2%	4.1%	0.4%

Joba's fastball was down about 2.6 mph on average from 2008. He also had worse command of it, and got fewer swinging strikes with it. His slider velocity and command look similar between 2008 and 2009, but he got fewer swings and misses with it. That could be related to lower fastball velocity/command making it easier to sit slider and adjust to the fastball, or it could be related to a myriad of other things.

We don't know if Joba will get his velocity back. It's possible that whatever he suffered in Texas has taken some of it away for good. Then again, it may just be a conditioning issue or a mechanical issue that could be fixed.

Justin Verlander lost some juice on his fastball in 2008 but recoverd it in 2009 (2007 avg FB: 94.8, 2008 avg FB: 93.6, 2009 avg FB: 95.6), so I think that's encouraging in the case of Joba.

A lot of people have criticized the Yankees for their handling of Chamberlain, but that's just symptomatic of impatience and the need to complain just to complain. The Yankees are handling him in a manner that they feel will be in the best interests of him and the team in the long-term. If that's the goal, why would you judge it on the results in the near-term? In a few years, we'll know whether or not they were right.

Even though the Yankees bought the World Series, they can point to Melky and Joba as contributors they drafted/signed and developed.

--Posted at 6:35 pm by SG / 29 Comments | - (263)

2009 Yankees Season in Review: C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett

Next up, a look at the Yankees’ top two starters.

In 2008 the Yankees had to give 43 starts to Darrell Rasner, Snacks Pontoon and Carl Pavano. In addition to that, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were both awful. Between that and Mike Mussina’s retirement, upgrading the starting pitching was the Yankees’ chief priority for 2009. So they went out and signed the two best free agent starting pitchers on the market in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

We'll start things off with C.C.

c.c. sabathia	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	230	223	95	87	21	47	202	3.41	3.23	28	57	101.4%	95.6%
2009 marcel projection	230	211	88	78	20	55	217	3.07	3.13	37	65	91.3%	92.8%
2009 pecota projection	230	221	96	88	22	53	200	3.43	3.38	27	56	101.9%	100.1%
2009 tht projection	230	212	90	83	21	48	203	3.25	3.28	32	61	96.6%	97.1%
2009 zips projection	230	221	85	78	22	48	210	3.07	3.23	37	65	91.1%	95.5%
2009 cairo projection	230	223	99	89	21	61	200	3.48	3.44	26	55	103.4%	101.7%
2009 average projection	230	219	92	84	21	52	205	3.29	3.28	31	60	97.6%	97.1%
2009 actual	230	197	96	86	18	67	197	3.37	3.38	29	58

c.c. sabathia	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	211	205	87	80	19	43	185	3.41	3.23	26	52	101.4%	95.6%
2009 marcel projection	211	194	81	72	18	50	199	3.07	3.13	34	60	91.3%	92.8%
2009 pecota projection	231	222	96	88	22	53	201	3.43	3.38	27	56	101.9%	100.1%
2009 tht projection	214	197	83	77	20	45	189	3.25	3.28	30	56	96.6%	97.1%
2009 zips projection	223	214	82	76	21	47	204	3.07	3.23	36	63	91.1%	95.5%
2009 cairo projection	229	222	99	88	21	61	199	3.48	3.44	26	55	103.4%	101.7%
2009 average projection	220	209	88	80	20	50	196	3.29	3.28	30	57	97.6%	97.1%
2009 actual	230	197	96	86	18	67	197	3.37	3.38	29	58

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

I've been having fun with PECOTA being bad in a lot of cases this year, so it should be noted that they pretty much nailed Sabathia's 2009. All the projections were pretty close though, as Sabathia effectively hit his average projection at 58 RSAR, or 5.8 WAR (wins above replacement).

Sabathia did his best pitching down the stretch. From August 8th through the end of the postseaon Sabathia threw 111 innings, allowing 82 hits and eight HRs whle walking 33 and striking out 115. He had an RA of 2.68, an ERA of 2.11 and a FIP of 3.17. In the postseason, he made five starts (two on three days rest), pitching 28 innings, striking out 32, with an RA of 2.23, ERA of 1.98, and a FIP of 3.94. The Yankees won four of those five starts en route to #27.

Signing a pitcher is always a risk, but at least in 2009 the Sabathia signing worked out about as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped.

Moving on to Burnett, here's how he projected compared to how he did.

a.j. burnett	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	207	198	97	89	20	78	203	3.88	3.61	14	40	96.0%	84.2%
2009 marcel projection	207	193	101	92	21	79	200	3.99	3.72	12	37	98.8%	86.8%
2009 pecota projection	207	197	96	88	20	77	187	3.82	3.73	16	42	94.4%	87.0%
2009 tht projection	207	193	96	89	21	77	194	3.85	3.76	15	41	95.2%	87.6%
2009 zips projection	207	199	99	91	23	76	197	3.97	3.86	12	38	98.2%	89.9%
2009 cairo projection	207	198	103	94	22	62	195	4.07	3.58	10	36	100.8%	83.4%
2009 average projection	207	196	99	90	21	75	196	3.93	3.71	13	39	97.2%	86.5%
2009 actual	207	193	99	93	25	97	195	4.04	4.29	11	36

a.j. burnett	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	167	160	78	72	16	63	164	3.88	3.61	12	32	96.0%	84.2%
2009 marcel projection	187	174	91	83	19	71	181	3.99	3.72	11	34	98.8%	86.8%
2009 pecota projection	197	187	92	84	19	73	178	3.82	3.73	15	40	94.4%	87.0%
2009 tht projection	188	175	87	80	19	70	176	3.85	3.76	14	37	95.2%	87.6%
2009 zips projection	179	172	85	79	20	66	170	3.97	3.86	11	33	98.2%	89.9%
2009 cairo projection	192	183	95	87	20	58	180	4.07	3.58	9	33	100.8%	83.4%
2009 average projection	185	175	88	81	19	67	175	3.93	3.71	12	35	97.2%	86.5%
2009 actual	207	193	99	93	25	97	195	4.04	4.29	11	36

On a rate basis, Burnett's projections were all fairly close to what he ended up doing in terms of value. However, Burnett's peripherals were worse. Well, actually the big issue was the spike in walks, everything else was about right.

In the postseason, Burnett made five starts. While his overall postseason ERA of 5.27 was not very good, in terms of the starts, two of them were really bad (a combined 13.50 ERA in ALCS Game 5 and WS Game 5), but three were really good (1.86 ERA in Game 2 of the ALDS, Game 2 of the ALCS, and Game 2 of the World Series).

A lot of people hated the Burnett signing because of his injury history and they may be vindicated some time over the next four seasons, but in 2009 he was able to make every start and was worth his contract. Burnett also provided walkoff pies to the face, which was a fun thing to watch.

The Yankees and their fans should be happy with how both guys performed overall this year.

--Posted at 7:32 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (205)

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui

I figured it’s time to get through the rest of these and go full bore into off-season mode, so here’s a tripleheader look at how the Yankees’ starting corner OFs and DH performed relative to expectations in 2009.

Since it's come up in a few of the previous reviews, I'll show two tables for the projections. The first will have them all pro-rated to the actual 2009 PAs, and the second one will be the projections with their original estimated playing times.

johnny damon	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	626	561	155	27	3	15	19	5	63	82	.276	.351	.417	85	.330	.290	.310	.350	.371	93.2%
2009 marcel projection	626	555	153	28	3	16	24	7	63	88	.276	.348	.428	87	.329	.289	.309	.350	.370	92.9%
2009 pecota projection	626	554	155	29	5	14	26	7	62	88	.280	.353	.423	87	.331	.291	.311	.351	.371	93.4%
2009 tht projection	626	559	153	28	3	14	24	5	64	87	.273	.351	.412	85	.328	.288	.308	.349	.369	92.7%
2009 zips projection	626	562	163	30	4	15	25	7	62	78	.291	.363	.438	92	.342	.302	.322	.363	.383	96.6%
2009 cairo projection	626	556	157	29	4	15	22	6	62	84	.282	.354	.433	89	.335	.294	.314	.355	.375	94.4%
2009 average projection	626	558	156	29	4	15	23	6	63	85	.280	.353	.425	88	.333	.292	.313	.353	.373	93.9%
2009 actuals	626	550	155	36	3	24	12	0	71	98	.282	.364	.489	101	.355	.313	.334	.375	.396

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	615	551	152	27	3	15	19	5	62	81	.276	.351	.417	85
2009 marcel projection	572	507	140	26	3	15	22	6	58	80	.276	.348	.428	87
2009 pecota projection	549	486	136	26	4	12	22	6	55	77	.280	.353	.423	87
2009 tht projection	573	512	140	26	3	13	22	5	59	80	.273	.351	.412	85
2009 zips projection	628	564	164	30	4	15	25	7	62	78	.291	.363	.438	92
2009 cairo projection	634	564	159	30	4	16	22	6	63	86	.282	.354	.433	89
2009 average projection	595	530	148	27	4	14	22	6	60	80	.280	.353	.425	88
2009 actuals	626	550	155	36	3	24	12	0	71	98	.282	.365	.489	101

Nick Swisher	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	607	515	127	26	1	26	3	1	87	134	.247	.360	.454	92	.345	.303	.324	.365	.386	96.6%
2009 marcel projection	607	509	125	26	1	23	3	2	85	131	.245	.357	.434	88	.337	.296	.316	.357	.378	94.4%
2009 pecota projection	607	511	125	26	1	27	3	2	82	139	.244	.352	.460	91	.340	.298	.319	.360	.381	95.2%
2009 tht projection	607	517	128	27	1	25	3	2	84	131	.247	.359	.447	91	.342	.301	.322	.363	.384	95.9%
2009 zips projection	607	516	131	29	2	27	3	2	85	138	.254	.366	.471	96	.352	.310	.331	.373	.394	98.7%
2009 cairo projection	607	510	123	28	1	24	2	2	85	135	.240	.353	.442	88	.336	.295	.315	.356	.377	94.1%
2009 average projection	607	513	126	27	1	25	3	2	84	135	.246	.358	.451	91	.342	.301	.321	.363	.383	95.8%
2009 actuals	607	498	124	35	1	29	0	0	97	126	.249	.369	.498	101	.357	.315	.336	.378	.399

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	602	511	126	26	1	26	3	1	86	133	.247	.360	.454	92
2009 marcel projection	560	470	115	24	1	21	3	2	78	121	.245	.357	.434	88
2009 pecota projection	524	441	108	22	1	24	3	1	71	120	.244	.352	.460	91
2009 tht projection	565	481	119	25	1	23	3	2	78	122	.247	.359	.447	91
2009 zips projection	617	524	133	29	2	27	3	2	86	140	.254	.366	.471	96
2009 cairo projection	618	519	125	28	1	24	2	2	86	137	.240	.353	.442	88
2009 average projection	581	491	121	26	1	24	3	2	81	129	.246	.358	.451	91
2009 actuals	607	498	124	35	1	29	0	0	97	126	.249	.371	.498	101

Rescued from the South Side of Chicago, Nick Swisher rebounded from a .219/.332/.410 line in 2008 to hit .249/.371/.498. In roughly the same PT as last year, Swisher hit 14 more 2Bs and five more HRs, while walking 15 more times. ZiPS came very close to Swisher's final line.

Swisher was below average defensively in 2009, but compared to his predecessor (2008 Bobby Abreu) he looked like the Ozzie Smith of RF.

hideki matsui	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	528	468	130	24	1	17	2	1	57	65	.277	.360	.443	90	.342	.298	.320	.364	.386	94.8%
2009 marcel projection	528	464	128	23	2	16	4	1	56	70	.277	.358	.443	89	.340	.296	.318	.363	.385	94.3%
2009 pecota projection	528	465	128	24	1	13	2	1	54	72	.275	.352	.417	83	.330	.286	.308	.352	.373	91.3%
2009 tht projection	528	466	130	25	1	16	1	1	58	71	.279	.364	.441	90	.344	.300	.322	.366	.388	95.3%
2009 zips projection	528	468	136	28	3	17	2	2	58	61	.290	.371	.476	97	.357	.312	.334	.379	.401	98.8%
2009 cairo projection	528	464	131	25	2	17	2	1	57	67	.283	.361	.454	91	.344	.300	.322	.366	.388	95.3%
2009 average projection	528	466	131	25	2	16	2	1	57	68	.280	.361	.446	90	.343	.298	.321	.365	.387	95.0%
2009 actuals	528	456	125	21	1	28	0	1	64	75	.274	.366	.509	101	.361	.316	.338	.383	.406

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	525	465	129	24	1	17	2	1	57	65	.277	.360	.443	90
2009 marcel projection	452	397	110	20	2	14	3	1	48	60	.277	.358	.443	89
2009 pecota projection	403	355	98	18	1	10	1	1	42	55	.275	.352	.417	83
2009 tht projection	426	376	105	20	1	13	1	1	47	57	.279	.364	.441	90
2009 zips projection	614	544	158	33	4	20	2	2	67	71	.290	.371	.476	97
2009 cairo projection	459	403	114	22	2	14	2	1	49	58	.283	.361	.454	91
2009 average projection	480	423	119	23	2	15	2	1	52	62	.280	.361	.446	90
2009 actuals	528	456	125	21	1	28	0	1	64	75	.274	.366	.509	101

Hideki Matsui, like Damon, was also in the last year of a four year contract. Unlike Damon, Matsui's contract has been a disappointment, although it's been due to injury more than under-performance. When he's been healthy, he's been solid, and he picked the best time of his Yankee tenure to get hot in the World Series, winning the MVP. Matsui showed a lot more HR power than projected, although it's worth noting that he hit 15 HRs on the road compared to 13 at DNYS. He actually hit for a lower average than projected, but he walked enough to bump his OBP higher than expected. He was also able to play more frequently than he did in 2006 and 2008.

It seems more and more likely that Matsui's time with the Yankees is over. If it is, I tip my cap to a guy who was fun to watch. Although the 2009 World Series will probably end up being his signature moment, the play I think of with Matsui was the play where he broke his wrist in 2006. His first impulse after it happened was not to hold his wrist which must have been in excruciating pain, but to get the ball back into the infield.

There were a lot of people who picked the Yankees third in the AL East this year, and a big part of the reason they exeeded those predictions is because they got around thirty extra runs of offense out of Damon, Swisher and Matsui.

--Posted at 6:18 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (209)

Thursday, November 19, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Andy Pettitte

Coming off a 2008 season where he faded badly down the stretch, there was some question about whether or not the Yankees should bring back Andy Pettitte. This was confirmed in the offseason as both the Yankees and Pettitte seemed less than committed to a reunion. When the Yankees pulled a contract offer to Pettitte for around $10 million off the table after inking Mark Teixeira to go along with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, it certainly seemed like Pettitte’s days as a Yankee were over.

After a little more time, the Yanks and Pettitte were able to agree to a contract that would have a low base but with a chance to earn more than the original offer if he met all the incentives. As it turned out, this worked out well for both sides.

Here’s a look at Pettitte’s projections vs. actuals in 2009.

andy pettitte	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	195	216	101	93	17	63	146	4.31	3.84	4	28	103.6%	91.7%
2009 marcel projection	195	219	103	95	19	62	140	4.38	3.99	3	27	105.2%	95.2%
2009 pecota projection	195	216	104	95	19	61	138	4.41	4.02	2	26	105.9%	96.0%
2009 tht projection	195	213	100	92	20	59	135	4.27	4.04	5	29	102.6%	96.6%
2009 zips projection	195	219	104	96	19	61	138	4.43	3.99	1	26	106.5%	95.3%
2009 cairo projection	195	215	106	96	20	59	139	4.45	3.98	1	26	106.9%	95.2%
2009 average projection	195	216	103	95	19	61	139	4.37	3.98	3	27	105.1%	95.0%
2009 actual	195	193	101	90	20	76	148	4.16	4.19	7	32

*Projections have all been pro-rated to actual 2009 innings

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

The first thing that sticks out in my mind is how similar all those projections were. The range of ERAs was 4.27-4.45, the range of FIPs was 3.84-4.04, and the ranges on the peripherals were all really close. The Hardball Times ends up being the closest, although the margin is pretty small.

In terms of his actuals, Pettitte's HRs were right around his average projection, but he allowed a lot fewer hits than expected, while walking more and striking out more hitters. He ended up being about 5 runs better than projected, or about a half win better.

Pettitte was even better in the postseason, pitching 30.2 innings with an ERA of 3.52, and starting all three series clinching games for the Yankees.

I think the Yankees should and probably will bring Pettitte back for one more year. They'll probably have to pay him a little bit more than they did this year, although it would be cool if they can work out a base + incentives deal similar to 2009's, maybe with a bit higher base and a bit more reachable in incentives. Pettitte should be a pretty good risk to provide 180+ innings of at least league average pitching again in 2010. That's not really exciting, but if you're going to try and develop some young pitching it'd be kind of nice to have Ol' Battle Cat around as contingency.

Update: Here are the original projections for Pettitte without pro-rating the innings to actual 2009.

andy pettitte	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	167	185	87	80	15	54	125	4.31	3.84	4	24	103.6%	91.7%
2009 marcel projection	183	206	97	89	18	58	132	4.38	3.99	3	25	105.2%	95.2%
2009 pecota projection	168	187	90	82	17	53	119	4.41	4.02	2	23	105.9%	96.0%
2009 tht projection	187	205	96	89	19	57	130	4.27	4.04	5	28	102.6%	96.6%
2009 zips projection	195	219	104	96	19	61	138	4.43	3.99	1	26	106.5%	95.3%
2009 cairo projection	210	232	114	104	21	64	150	4.45	3.98	1	28	106.9%	95.2%
2009 average projection	185	206	98	90	18	58	132	4.37	3.98	3	26	105.1%	95.0%
2009 YTD	195	193	101	90	20	76	148	4.16	4.19	7	32

--Posted at 4:06 pm by SG / 38 Comments | - (218)

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano began his MLB career by hitting .314/.346/.489 over the first 1728 PAs. Heading into his age 25 year in 2008, big things were expected. Instead, Cano had an abysmal season, hitting .271/.305/.410. The projection systems all expected him to improve on that in 2009 for the most part, and he did.

Here’s the rundown of the actual numbers.

Robinson Cano	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	674	636	191	42	5	18	5	2	33	74	.300	.340	.468	90	.336	.297	.316	.355	.375	94.3%
2009 marcel projection	674	627	185	42	3	17	5	5	36	81	.295	.334	.455	86	.328	.289	.308	.347	.367	92.0%
2009 pecota projection	674	628	179	37	3	13	4	3	33	79	.284	.322	.419	77	.311	.273	.292	.330	.349	87.3%
2009 tht projection	674	633	187	40	4	18	4	2	35	80	.296	.339	.453	87	.332	.293	.312	.351	.371	93.1%
2009 zips projection	674	637	189	44	5	20	3	4	32	74	.296	.335	.474	90	.335	.296	.315	.354	.374	94.0%
2009 cairo projection	674	631	187	43	5	18	4	4	32	77	.296	.332	.464	87	.329	.290	.310	.349	.368	92.4%
2009 average projection	674	632	186	41	4	17	4	3	33	77	.295	.334	.455	86	.328	.290	.309	.348	.367	92.2%
2009 actuals	674	637	204	48	2	25	5	7	30	63	.320	.352	.520	101	.356	.317	.337	.376	.396

*Projections are pro-rated to actual PAs to allow for a direct comparison.

BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA) %: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)

We know batting average is overrated, but in the case of a player like Cano who NEVER walks, it's highly important. For Cano, 30 pts of batting average is effectively 60 pts of OPS. Well, actually that's true for anyone, but a player who walks more frequently can still manage a respectable OBP even if the average dips. For Cano that's not really possible.

Cano actually walked a little less than projected, but he also made better contact and hit for more power (seven more 2Bs and eight more HRs than projected). Assuming those 15 additional XBHs replaced outs, that plus three singles were effectively the difference between his projections and his actuals.

While Cano did take some advantage of DNYS (.338/.370/.541 at home), his line of .303/.333/.498 on the road was still pretty good.

Of the projections, only CHONE saw him getting back to .300, but aside from PECOTA all the projections saw him rebounding at least somewhat. Of course, Cano did better than that, putting up his best offensive season in total value, and being worth about 15 runs more than his average projection would have expected. CHONE and ZiPS were the closest.

Of course, hidden in those numbers is the fact that Cano's performance with men on base (.255/.288/.415) was much worse than with the bases empty (.376/.407/.609). Cano's shown similar tendencies in the past, although far less pronounced (.280/.312/.425 vs. .331/.363/.528). While it's tempting to blame this on his approach or whatever, the fact is, these splits are still not in a large enough sample size for us to assume they are predictive. So don't.

Aside from that issue, Cano's 2009 was yet another pleasant season for a Yankee. Seems like that was a trend, huh? Luckily, we still have Wang, Joba, Cody, Angel and Sergio in the pipeline so we can get our complaining in.

--Posted at 12:13 am by SG / 105 Comments | - (357)

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Jorge Posada

It took an injury that cost him the bulk of 2008 for a lot of Yankee fans to finally appreciate just how important Jorge Posada has been to the Yankees during his career. Coming off that injury and subsequent surgery as a 37 year old catcher, how much Posada would contribute in 2009 was a very real concern.

So let’s see what Posada was expected to do compared to what he actually did.

jorge posada	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	438	380	101	20	1	14	1	0	54	79	.266	.363	.434	89	.341	.293	.317	.366	.390	94.4%
2009 marcel projection	438	380	108	26	1	14	2	0	50	80	.285	.371	.466	97	.352	.303	.328	.377	.401	97.4%
2009 pecota projection	438	382	95	22	1	12	1	0	48	86	.249	.336	.406	79	.317	.269	.293	.340	.364	87.6%
2009 tht projection	438	381	106	24	1	12	1	1	51	79	.279	.373	.444	92	.350	.301	.325	.374	.399	96.7%
2009 zips projection	438	379	108	27	1	12	1	1	52	79	.286	.383	.455	96	.358	.309	.333	.383	.407	99.0%
2009 cairo projection	438	377	109	26	1	12	1	0	55	80	.289	.386	.465	99	.362	.313	.337	.387	.412	100.2%
2009 average projection	438	380	105	24	1	13	1	0	52	80	.276	.369	.445	92	.347	.298	.322	.371	.396	95.9%
2009 actuals	438	383	109	25	0	22	1	0	48	101	.285	.363	.522	105	.362	.312	.337	.386	.411

--Posted at 10:52 am by SG / 72 Comments | - (283)

Monday, November 16, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Phil Hughes

After breaking camp in 2008 as a member of the starting rotation, ineffectiveness then injury led to a disastrous season for Phil Hughes.

With the memories of 2008 still in the not-so-distant past, Hughes started 2009 in AAA, making three strong starts before being called up on April 28 to pitch against Detroit when Chien-Ming Wang was put on the DL. Hughes threw six scoreless innings in that game, fanning six. Hughes made seven starts, and aside from one awful start against Baltimore where he gave up eight runs in 1.2 innings, he pitched pretty well as a starter, with an ERA of 3.54 (FIP of 4.47) if you exclude the Baltimore start.

Wang returned from the DL and then the bullpen, and it looked like Hughes would be sent back to the minors. However, the Yankees heeded Hughes’s request to stay in the majors and pitch out of the bullpen. Hughes took to the pen like a fish to water. In fact, he was arguably the best relief pitcher in the American League from the day he made his relief debut through the end of the season. Here’s how Hughes’ projections compared to what he ended up doing.

phil hughes	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	86	88	44	41	9	33	71	4.28	4.10	2	13	141.0%	130.1%
2009 marcel projection	86	85	47	44	9	33	67	4.61	4.19	-1	10	151.8%	132.8%
2009 pecota projection	86	89	49	45	10	34	68	4.74	4.27	-2	8	156.1%	135.5%
2009 tht projection	86	84	44	41	10	33	66	4.28	4.27	2	13	141.0%	135.6%
2009 zips projection	86	89	44	41	6	34	61	4.27	3.83	2	13	140.7%	121.4%
2009 cairo projection	86	89	46	43	8	29	65	4.53	3.94	0	10	149.4%	125.0%
2009 average projection	86	87	46	43	9	32	66	4.45	4.10	0	11	146.7%	130.0%
2009 actual	86	68	31	29	8	28	96	3.03	3.15	14	25

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP

One big caveat here is that Hughes was projected as a starter, so here's a look at the same projections converted to a relief equivalency.

phil hughes	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	86	77	35	32	9	34	83	3.40	3.84	11	21	112.0%	121.8%
2009 marcel projection	86	74	37	35	9	35	77	3.66	3.95	8	19	120.6%	125.1%
2009 pecota projection	86	77	39	36	9	36	79	3.76	4.03	7	18	124.0%	127.6%
2009 tht projection	86	73	35	32	9	35	76	3.40	4.03	11	21	112.0%	127.9%
2009 zips projection	86	77	35	32	6	35	71	3.39	3.63	11	21	111.8%	115.1%
2009 cairo projection	86	77	37	34	8	30	76	3.60	3.70	9	19	118.6%	117.4%
2009 average projection	86	76	36	34	8	34	77	3.54	3.86	9	20	116.5%	122.5%
2009 actual	86	68	31	29	8	28	96	3.03	3.15	14	25

Obviously, even adjusted for relief, Hughes blew away his projections, with a better BB rate and K rate, and a much better hit rate.

Hughes also flashed the high-end velocity he was touted for in the minors far more frequently in the bullpen, which made sense, since moving to the pen generally leads to an uptick in velocity.

2009 has to be considered a success for Hughes. It was great to see him dominating MLB hitters, albeit in an easier role. We obviously can't expect him to be nearly as good as a starter, but it'll be interesting to see how he transitions back to the rotation and deals with a bit lower velocity and an increased need to rely on pitches other than his fastball.

Since it's an interesting topic and it came up in the Joba thread a few days ago, here are Hughes's start/relief Pitch FX splits for 2009.

Type (As Starter)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %
Four-seam fastball	348	94.7	87.9	92.2	36.2%	7.2%	24.1%	15.5%	9.5%	4.3%	1.1%
Curveball	133	79.0	73.2	76.4	32.3%	10.5%	10.5%	18.0%	12.8%	3.8%	0.0%
Cut fastball	97	93.3	84.8	88.1	29.9%	5.2%	23.7%	17.5%	12.4%	5.2%	1.0%
Slider	32	89.2	84.0	87.2	43.8%	6.3%	21.9%	18.8%	6.3%	3.1%	0.0%
Change-up	9	85.9	81.5	83.3	77.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Total	619	94.7	73.2	85.4	35.4%	7.4%	20.7%	16.3%	10.7%	4.2%	0.8%

Type (As Reliever)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %
Four-seam fastball	642	97.3	89.9	94.6	31.0%	12.5%	25.9%	18.7%	7.5%	3.3%	0.0%
Curveball	196	80.4	74.6	77.5	39.8%	9.7%	11.7%	18.4%	12.8%	4.6%	0.0%
Cut fastball	85	94.0	86.4	89.6	25.9%	17.6%	22.4%	11.8%	16.5%	3.5%	0.0%
Slider	45	91.3	86.1	88.7	31.1%	13.3%	22.2%	17.8%	11.1%	4.4%	0.0%
Change-up	1	84.7	84.7	84.7	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Total	969	97.3	74.6	87.0	32.4%	12.4%	22.5%	18.0%	9.5%	3.6%	0.0%

#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch

Nothing too suprising here. Hughes's average FB was 94.6 mph coming out of the pen compared to 92.2 as a starter. He threw it for strikes more frequently out of the pen as well, both called and swinging. As a starter, he threw his four-seamer about 56.2% of the time, compared to 66.3% of the time out of the pen. I was surprised he supposedly threw his curve 196 times out of the pen, I could have sworn he threw it like twice.

Anyway, Hughes as a starter is probably going to need to use more sliders and changeups to offset the likely decline in the value of his fastball, but I'm confident he'll be able to do that.

--Posted at 7:30 pm by SG / 101 Comments | - (298)

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Derek Jeter

After finishing second in the AL MVP balloting in 2006, Derek Jeter proceeded to decline in 2007 and 2008, and thngs didn’t look great heading into 2009. Jeter shocked the world by rebounding to put up another MVP-caliber season at the advanced baseball of age of 35. Here’s a look at his projections entering 2009 compared to how he ended up doing.

derek jeter	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	716	644	189	32	3	13	13	4	64	106	.294	.366	.415	86	.339	.301	.320	.358	.377	90.5%
2009 marcel projection	716	637	193	33	4	13	18	6	59	104	.303	.355	.428	86	.333	.295	.314	.351	.370	88.8%
2009 pecota projection	716	639	184	30	4	8	15	5	59	100	.288	.350	.383	77	.319	.282	.301	.338	.357	85.3%
2009 tht projection	716	647	193	34	2	9	15	5	58	102	.298	.365	.400	84	.335	.297	.316	.354	.373	89.4%
2009 zips projection	716	645	195	32	4	12	15	6	60	104	.302	.371	.421	88	.344	.306	.325	.363	.382	91.8%
2009 cairo projection	716	635	192	33	4	12	15	6	61	104	.303	.370	.427	89	.343	.305	.324	.362	.381	91.5%
2009 average projection	716	641	191	33	3	11	15	5	60	103	.298	.363	.412	85	.335	.298	.316	.354	.373	89.6%
2009 actuals	716	634	212	27	1	18	30	5	72	90	.334	.404	.465	104	.374	.336	.355	.394	.413

--Posted at 11:49 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (224)

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Brett Gardner

While we've apparently already kind of moved into off-season mode, I'm going to try and do a quick retrospective on the key players for the 2009 Yankees, which also should also help us think about what we should expect from them going forward where applicable.

Since we've started talking about Brett Gardner in the prior thread, I'll start off with him.

Despite putting up respectable numbers in the minors, particularly in terms of OBP, there was a lot of concern about how Gardner's game would translate in the majors. If you looked at the track record of players similar to Gardner(high OBP, low SLG, high K rate) it was a somewhat valid concern.

So here's a look at Gardner's 2009 projections, pro-rated to what his actual PAs ended up being.

brett gardner	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	284	252	65	11	4	1	19	5	31	59	.258	.341	.345	73	.305	.247	.276	.334	.364	98.3%
2009 marcel projection	284	253	65	13	2	5	13	2	22	52	.257	.311	.386	74	.295	.237	.266	.324	.352	94.9%
2009 pecota projection	284	245	62	11	4	2	18	5	31	56	.253	.334	.351	72	.300	.242	.271	.329	.359	96.8%
2009 tht projection	284	251	63	8	4	3	17	3	31	54	.251	.338	.349	74	.305	.247	.276	.334	.364	98.3%
2009 zips projection	284	253	63	8	3	1	23	5	30	57	.249	.331	.321	69	.294	.236	.265	.323	.352	94.7%
2009 cairo projection	284	252	64	9	4	1	13	3	31	56	.254	.338	.334	69	.301	.243	.272	.331	.360	97.1%
2009 bill james projection	284	249	69	8	5	2	28	6	35	45	.277	.365	.375	86	.328	.268	.298	.358	.388	105.7%
2009 average projection	284	251	64	10	3	2	17	4	29	56	.254	.332	.348	72	.300	.242	.271	.329	.358	96.7%
2009 actuals	284	248	67	6	6	3	26	5	26	40	.270	.338	.379	80	.310	.252	.281	.340	.369

BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)

Aside from the Bill James projections, which were a little too bullish, the rest of the projections all missed low. The Hardball Times came the closest in terms of projected wOBA as a percentage of actual wOBA.

They were all generally low on the average, although with this type of playing time we're talking about a handful of hits. The biggest thing that I see here is that Gardner struck out 16 fewer times than his average projection expected, which meant more balls in play which surely meant a better chance of getting a few more hits. That he was able to do that while not walking much less than expected was a key factor in him being able to exceed his projected OBP.

Gardner hit for a little more power than expected, with an ISO (SLG - AVG) of .109 compared to a projected ISO of .097. He actually hit fewer doubles than projected, but made up for it with an extra 3B and an extra HR. DNYS suppressed non-HR extra base hits, which may have contributed to Gardner hitting a few less doubles than expected, but obviously when we're looking at the sample size we're looking at here, we shouldn't really make the assumption that Gardner blew away his projections. If a few batted balls had a different result his performance would have looked a lot different.

That being said, it's tough to consider Gardner's overall 2009 as anything but encouraging in my opinion. Yeah, he wasn't so good when he came back from injury or in the postseason, although his irregular playing time may have contributed to that. While his triple slash stats may or may not have benefited from some good fortune, if he can maintain the lower K rate without affecting the rest of the game, he has a good chance to hit for a decent enough average (.270-.280) or so to approach league average offensively (AL average CF has hit .269/.334/.410) over the last three seasons, especially if he sees a little uptick in his power as most players do moving from their mid to late 20s.

A league average CF is around two wins above replacement level if he's an average fielder and baserunner, but Gardner should be better than that in both areas, maybe +10 or +15 in total. You probably have to assume that he should not play full-time against lefties if he's going to maintain that type of rate of performance, but TSBG looks like an asset in CF, maybe 2.5-3 WAR if he can do what he did in 2009 over 500 PAs.

--Posted at 2:20 pm by SG / 82 Comments | - (333)

Friday, August 7, 2009

Meet Chad Gaudin

With Sergio Mitre not impressing, the Yankees made a deal with San Diego for Chad Gaudin. Gaudin's probably best known for his 2007 season in Oakland, where he pitched 199.1 innings with an ERA+ of 95, which is around average for a starter. He's got a career ERA of 4.58 and is only 26 years old, but has struggled with the Padres in 2009, putting up an ERA of 5.13 despite a very nice FIP of 3.68. The Padres defense has been below average this year, although not necessarily much worse than the Yankees (- 16.8 UZR versus -14.7), but that could be part of the reason for the ERA/FIP disparity.

Most of the projection systems were pretty bullish on Gaudin entering 2009. These projections were made for Gaudin as a Cub, so keep that in mind.

chad gaudin	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	74	68	32	30	6	30	76	3.65	3.42	7.0	16.3
2009 marcel projection	101	98	51	46	11	43	81	4.10	4.29	4.5	17.1
2009 pecota projection	78	75	39	36	9	30	65	4.14	4.20	3.1	12.8
2009 tht projection	95	97	52	48	11	42	78	4.52	4.39	-0.2	11.7
2009 zips projection	128	120	63	58	13	54	117	4.08	3.96	6.0	22.0
2009 cairo projection	135	138	76	69	16	54	103	4.62	4.44	-1.7	15.1
2009 average projection	102	99	51	47	11	42	88	4.18	4.12	3.6	16.3
2009 YTD	105	105	69	60	7	56	105	5.13	3.67	-7.4	5.8

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level

Revising Gaudin's projection to include 2009 and to adjust for switching leagues gives us this line for the rest of the season:

Player	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAR
chad gaudin	51	51	29	26	5	23	41	4.60	4.25	6.2

That seems a little optimistic to me, although I guess with his FIP so far it makes sense.

A scouting report from CubsHub.com written last year describes Gaudin as being small-framed but with pretty good stuff.

Pitching: On physical appearances alone Gaudin's frame and build doesn't impress anyone. It's when he throws that drops scouts jaws, often being described as having electric stuff and a live arm and rightfully so. Nothing Chad throws is straight, it's always moving which helps make up for his lack of velocity. On the mound, he's got no problem coming right after hitters despite not having overpowering stuff. Gaudin has three plus pitches, a fastball, a slider, and a changeup. Chad's fastball sits around 86-90 mph when he starts while in the pen he gains a few more miles per hour to his average.

To make up for the lack of velocity, Gaudin's fastball has amazing lateral movement and even some sink, making it difficult to square up on. On top of the fastball, Chad throws a changeup, but not your standard issue one. He calls it a two-seam changeup, and it's much like a circle change, it too has tremendous movement. Not only does it move, but he throws it hard at 82-86mph and occassionally hits 90 mph with it. Yet, Chad's bread and butter pitch is his filthy late breaking slider. He's got so much confidence in the pitch that he'll throw it at any count in the lineup. The spin is so tight on it that hitters aren't able to pick it up till it's too late. To righties, it starts on the inside portion of the plate and sharply breaks away off the plate with a little drop. Gaudin's stuff is so nasty, that often times, he doesn't even know where it's going to end. That movement which gives him so much worth is also his biggest problem and often appears that he doesn't have a control.

The Cubs released him prior to Opening Day, but the Padres picked him up and stuck him in their rotation, which probably speaks more to the Padres issues than it does to Gaudin's ability.

If you wanted to look at some bright spots, I guess you could look at the fact that he has a 4.20 ERA over his last 10 starts, with 59 Ks in 55.2 innings. You could also look at the fact that he has pitched better on the road this year (4.41 ERA vs. 6.30) which means PETCO isn't necessarily masking him being worse than his ERA. Plus it's always nice to see a K rate of around one per inning.

According to Tyler Kepner's Twitter, Gaudin will begin his Yankee career in the pen. I'm guessing Mitre gets one more start, depending on how the rest of the Red Sox series goes. I'd doubt the PTBNL is going to be anyone of major consequence, and I like the fact that Gaudin is only 26, is under team control through 2011 and seems to have pretty good stuff. He's worth a flier I think.

--Posted at 7:57 am by SG / 110 Comments | - (409)

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Meet Sergio Mitre

Yankee uber-prospect Sergio Mitre is scheduled to make his 2009 debut tonight against Baltimore. I probably don't have to explain to most of you that Mitre's not an actual prospect. He's a 28 year old who's logged 310 MLB innings and is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Here are his career MLB stats along with his 2009 MLE(major league equivalency).

Season	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO
2003	Cubs	3	2	8.7	43	15	8	8	1	4	0	3
2004	Cubs	12	9	51.7	244	71	38	38	6	20	4	37
2005	Cubs	21	7	60.3	268	62	37	36	11	23	3	37
2006	Marlins	15	7	41.0	189	44	28	26	7	20	6	31
2007	Marlins	27	27	149.0	662	180	88	77	9	41	10	80
2009	Yankees (MLE)	9	9	55.7	219	53	25	22	4	10	4	34

Season	Team	AVG	OBP	SLG	ERA	CERA	FIP	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%
2003	Cubs	.380	.442	.546	8.31	7.48	5.22	.395	11.4%	65.7%	22.9%	12.5%
2004	Cubs	.328	.389	.488	6.62	5.89	4.52	.374	15.6%	59.4%	25.0%	11.1%
2005	Cubs	.267	.328	.465	5.37	4.73	5.46	.277	11.9%	65.8%	22.3%	6.7%
2006	Marlins	.276	.370	.467	5.71	5.36	5.76	.304	20.2%	51.9%	27.9%	11.1%
2007	Marlins	.300	.349	.418	4.65	4.52	3.98	.335	17.3%	59.7%	22.9%	5.9%
2009	Yankees (MLE)	.259	.306	.378	3.56	3.59	3.70	.275	17.9%	63.1%	16.7%	8.6%

CERA: Component ERA (calculated as 31 times OBP times SLG)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
LD%: Line drive percentage
GB%: Ground ball percentage
FB%: Outfield fly ball percentage
IFFB: Infield fly ball percentage

It's not a particularly impressive set of stats, although in 2007 Mitre was a little worse than average (ERA+ of 93) and about 15 runs above replacement level. Looking at that batted ball data, it almost seems fitting that Mitre is replacing Chien-Ming Wang.

Career	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%
Mitre	16.2%	60.1%	23.8%	7.9%
Wang	17.7%	60.1%	22.2%	6.8%

Those are some eerily similar ratios.

Despite those similarities, these numbers only tell us part of the story.

Career	HR/FB	BB/9	K/9	BABIP	FIP	ERA	FIP-ERA
Mitre	13.40%	3.13	5.45	0.325	4.62	5.36	-0.74
Wang	8.20%	2.64	4.16	0.294	3.99	4.16	-0.17

Mitre has allowed more HRs per flyball and has had slightly worse control than Wang. He's K'd a few more batters on a rate basis, but his FIP is about one-half run worse. His BABIP against is a good amount worse too, which explains the larger discrepancy between his FIP and his ERA. FWIW, here are Mitre's team defenses runs saved above average (using zone rating) from 2003 through 2007:

2003 Cubs: +7
2004 Cubs: +22
2005 Cubs: +17
2006 Marlins: -38
2007 Marlins: -62

Mitre's BABIP with the Cubs was .323 compared to .326 with the Marlins, so I don't know that his defense made much difference in either case.

I generally think the readership here is pretty clever, so you've likely deduced by now that Mitre's a sinkerball pitcher. Here is Fangraphs breakdown of his pitch types and selection.

Season	Team	FB	SL	CB	CH
2003	Cubs	65.3% (91.9)		30.7% (78.4)	4.0% (83.0)
2004	Cubs	66.5% (89.8)	4.2% (80.0)	16.9% (78.3)	12.1% (83.0)
2005	Cubs	77.7% (90.2)	4.9% (79.3)	10.8% (78.1)	6.7% (82.8)
2006	Marlins	72.1% (89.8)	3.7% (78.5)	6.5% (77.1)	17.8% (83.7)
2007	Marlins	68.4% (90.1)	3.5% (79.3)	6.2% (78.3)	21.9% (83.6)

Mitre's average fastball/sinker sits around 90mph, and he throws it around 70% of the time. His second pitch seems to be his changeup, which he throws around 16% of the time, along with a curve he throws about 10% of the time and a slider he doesn't throw much. Wang throws his fastball/sinker about 77% of the time, and throws it about two MPH faster . So it makes sense that Mitre could be Wang-lite, he's essentially Wang missing a few MPH. Hopefully he's not like 2009 Wang-lite though.

As I mentioned at the top, Mitre's coming back from surgery. For that reason, it's tough to project him because we don't know what's changed with him physically. He may have lost some stuff on the operating table, or the surgery may make him stronger. So I'll show his projections entering 2009 here, but with the caveat that because of his injury and subsequent surgery we shouldn't really read a ton into them.

sergio mitre	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 marcel projection	71	77	39	35	6	24	48	4.44	3.96	0.5	9.4
2009 zips projection	114	131	65	60	11	36	60	4.74	4.35	-3.0	11.3
2009 cairo projection	124	137	74	67	11	37	75	4.86	4.03	-4.9	10.6
2009 average projection	103	115	59	53	9	33	62	4.68	4.1	-2.0	10.8

Those are the only systems that projected Mitre for 2009. If we add in his 2009 MLE with a weight of 25%, his ERA drops by around .15 runs and his RSAA goes to essentially average. That'll work fine for a fifth starter, especially if Joba Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte can pitch better going forward.

Here are Mitre's CAIRO percentile forecasts, just for the hell of it.

2009 cairo percentiles	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	136	138	72	65	8	34	92	4.26	3.39	3.6	17.2
65%	130	138	73	66	10	35	83	4.56	3.71	-0.9	12.1
Baseline	124	137	74	67	11	37	75	4.86	4.03	-4.9	7.5
35%	111	129	70	64	11	36	64	5.15	4.35	-8.1	3.0
20%	99	119	66	60	11	34	53	5.45	4.66	-10.5	-0.6

Lastly, I keep picturing this awful commercial when I read the name Sergio, so he'd better be decent to compensate for that.

Update: Per Peter Abraham, Brett Tomko DFA'd to make room for Mitre

--Posted at 8:26 am by SG / 108 Comments | - (453)

Thursday, June 25, 2009

2009 Projection Checkpoint Through Games of June 25 - Pitching

Following up on Last week's post about their projections, here's a look at the pitching. I'm only going to look at player's who've pitched at least 20 innings in the majors for now.

One thing that needs to be noted is that no one knew how New Yankee Stadium would play, so we don't know what the park factor impact was to the projections. So make a mental note of that at the very least when looking at the numbers that follow. If the projections seem too optimistic, it's likely that the park factor is at least part of it. Projections are pro-rated to actual YTD playing time, so pay special attention to HRs since that has been the biggest issue in NYS.

C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia was the Yankees' big free agent target and acquisition this off-season. Has he been worth it so far?

C.C. Sabathia	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	102	99	42	39	9	21	89	3.41	3.23	12	25
2009 marcel projection	102	94	39	35	9	24	96	3.07	3.13	16	29
2009 pecota projection	102	98	43	39	10	23	89	3.43	3.38	12	25
2009 tht projection	102	94	40	37	10	21	90	3.25	3.28	14	27
2009 zips projection	102	98	38	35	10	21	93	3.07	3.23	16	29
2009 cairo projection	102	99	44	39	9	27	89	3.48	3.44	12	24
2009 average projection	102	97	41	37	9	23	91	3.29	3.28	14	27
2009 YTD	102	85	45	42	8	31	70	3.71	3.76	9	22

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement

C.C.'s been a little worse than expected to this point. Interestingly, he's actually allowed fewer homers than any of the projections expected despite the homerrificness of NYS. The bigger issue is the BB rate is higher and the K rate is lower. He's giving up fewer hits than projected, as well. Still, he has an established track record of excellence and is(HOPEFULLY) healthy, so we should see him improve a little as the season goes on.

A.J. Burnett
It's funny with Burnett. A lot of Yankee bloggers and most analysts hated his signing at the time. I didn't hate it, I thought it was risky but could pay off. However, the reason everyone hated it was because Burnett was supposedly an injury risk. Not one analyst said that Burnett wouldn't pitch well when he could pitch, they just thought he wouldn't pitch enough (please correct me on this if I missed anyone). Now that Burnett's been healthy and pitching erratically, many of those same analysts are alluding that the reason they didn't like the Burnett signing was because they knew he would be erratic, not because of the health risk. I call BS.

A.J. Burnett	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	87	83	41	38	8	33	85	3.88	3.61	6	17
2009 marcel projection	87	81	42	39	9	33	84	3.99	3.72	5	16
2009 pecota projection	87	83	40	37	8	32	79	3.82	3.73	7	17
2009 tht projection	87	81	40	37	9	32	81	3.85	3.76	6	17
2009 zips projection	87	84	41	38	10	32	83	3.97	3.86	5	16
2009 cairo projection	87	83	43	39	9	26	82	4.07	3.58	4	15
2009 average projection	87	82	41	38	9	31	82	3.93	3.71	5	16
2009 YTD	87	81	44	41	13	44	82	4.24	4.77	3	13

Burnett hasn't been particularly good so far, due to giving up four more HRs and 13 more BBs than his average projection expected over the 87 innings he's pitched. While his ERA of 4.24 is respectable, it belies a FIP of 4.77 which is a non-trivial concern going forward. While it's still too early to judge his contract only 8% of the way through it, the nay-sayers appear to have been right so far. I still think(hope) A.J. can turn it around.

Andy Pettitte
Pettitte's been one pitcher who's really struggled in NYS (Opponents are hitting .332/.392/.500 against him at home, compared to .207/.277/.329 on the road). Interestingly, his combined stats are very much in-line with how he was projected.

Andy Pettitte	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	87	96	45	42	8	28	65	4.31	3.84	2	13
2009 marcel projection	87	98	46	42	9	27	63	4.38	3.99	1	12
2009 pecota projection	87	96	47	42	9	27	61	4.41	4.02	1	12
2009 tht projection	87	95	44	41	9	26	60	4.27	4.04	2	13
2009 zips projection	87	97	46	43	8	27	61	4.43	3.99	1	12
2009 cairo projection	87	96	47	43	9	26	62	4.45	3.98	1	11
2009 average projection	87	96	46	42	8	27	62	4.37	3.98	1	12
2009 YTD	87	96	44	41	11	33	57	4.26	4.68	2	13

Pettitte's not pretty to watch, but despite his ugly peripherals he's a touch above average in terms of run prevention and gives the team innings. It would be nice if he could get his home performance to match his road performance a little more closely though.

Joba Chamberlain

Joba Chamberlain	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	76	66	31	28	7	29	84	3.39	3.30	9	19
2009 marcel projection	76	67	28	26	5	28	78	3.07	3.14	12	21
2009 pecota projection	76	65	29	26	5	29	81	3.09	3.05	12	21
2009 tht projection	76	62	29	27	6	30	84	3.20	3.19	11	20
2009 zips projection	76	73	34	32	7	30	74	3.77	3.61	6	16
2009 cairo projection	76	72	31	29	7	26	77	3.45	3.36	9	18
2009 average projection	76	68	30	28	6	28	80	3.33	3.27	10	19
2009 YTD	76	70	36	32	8	37	69	3.80	4.22	6	15

Despite the Yankees' foolish insistence on using a reliever in the starting rotation, Joba's been the Yankees' second most valuable starter. That his season line seems disappointing is more a testament to how well he has done the past two seasons than any real disappointment in his current performance. He's walking a few more batters and striking out a few less batters than expected, but part of that is the fact that his projections include his relief stats, which are going to boost his projections slightly since relieving is easier than starting. As long as we remember that he's 23 and still working his way up to building the stamina to become a full-time starter, we should be encouraged by his performance to date. He's already pitched 76 innings, something that would take him a whole season to do as a reliever.

Phil Hughes
I think some people forget that Hughes is nine months younger than Joba. While his MLB time has been mixed, he's looked pretty good this year. I was at the game versus the Braves on Tuesday and the Braves fans were oohing and aahing when Hughes hit 96 on his fastball several times. The myth of his 'only 91 mph fastball' should be silenced now. A healthy Hughes has the stuff that made him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Now he's hitting 96 in relief, which means he's probably going to lose some of that velocity when he moves back to the rotation, but he should still maintain enough to be effective.

Phil Hughes	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	45	46	23	22	5	17	38	4.28	4.10	1	7
2009 marcel projection	45	45	25	23	5	17	35	4.61	4.19	-1	5
2009 pecota projection	45	47	26	24	5	18	36	4.74	4.27	-1	4
2009 tht projection	45	44	23	22	5	17	35	4.28	4.27	1	7
2009 zips projection	45	47	23	21	3	18	32	4.27	3.83	1	7
2009 cairo projection	45	47	24	23	4	15	34	4.53	3.94	0	5
2009 average projection	45	46	24	22	5	17	35	4.45	4.10	0	6
2009 YTD	45	42	24	23	7	17	45	4.57	4.35	0	5

As you can see Hughes is pitching around where his projections expected, although with a higher K rate. In general, a starter moved to relief will see his K rate increase by about 16%, so that explains part of the higher K rate. Still, Hughes is finally flashing the talent that made him famous. I'd still like to see him starting again, either in the majors or in AAA, because I think he needs to build his innings up.

Chien-Ming Wang
Hide the women and the kids, because what you are about to see is explicit.

Chien-Ming Wang	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	31	37	17	16	2	10	17	4.47	3.86	0	4
2009 marcel projection	31	31	14	13	2	10	17	3.83	3.89	2	6
2009 pecota projection	31	35	17	15	3	10	17	4.39	4.19	0	4
2009 tht projection	31	34	15	13	2	10	15	3.88	4.07	2	6
2009 zips projection	31	33	15	14	1	10	15	3.92	3.80	2	6
2009 cairo projection	31	33	15	14	2	11	15	4.16	4.04	1	5
2009 average projection	31	34	15	14	2	10	16	4.11	3.98	1	5
2009 YTD	31	56	40	39	6	15	25	11.21	5.53	-23	-19

If Wang can pitch 120 more innings at his average projected ERA of 4.11, he'll end the season with 151 innings and a 5.89 ERA. In the entire history of the Yankees, there have only been three pitchers to pitch at least 140 innings with an ERA of 5.5 or higher:

David Cone in 2000 (6.91 ERA in 155 IP).
Jeff Weaver in 2003 (5.99 ERA in 159.1 IP).
Kenny Rogers in 1997 (5.65 ERA in 145 IP).

The good news is Wang has been a little better lately and may be able to pitch closer to his projections over the rest of the season. Also, this may make Wang cheaper in arbitration next year. The bad news is there's very little chance of Wang salvaging this season and finishing with respectable numbers, although that doesn't really matter going forward.

Phil Coke
Coke impressed in 2008, but prior to that his minor league numbers werent' all that good, as reflected in his projections.

Phil Coke	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	30	30	15	14	3	12	28	4.25	3.96	1	5
2009 marcel projection	30	28	14	13	3	10	24	3.94	3.89	2	6
2009 pecota projection	30	34	18	17	3	12	22	4.99	4.43	-2	2
2009 tht projection	30	34	20	18	4	15	19	5.44	5.33	-3	1
2009 zips projection	30	34	18	17	4	13	19	4.91	4.72	-1	2
2009 cairo projection	30	39	21	20	4	6	18	5.82	4.33	-4	-1
2009 average projection	30	33	18	16	4	11	21	4.89	4.44	-1	2
2009 YTD	30	20	15	12	5	12	22	3.56	5.08	3	7

Now a lot of the input into his projections were based on Coke being a starter. If you convert his average projection to a relief equivalent, you get a revised line of:

IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
30	29	14	13	3	12	25	3.89	4.20	2.0	5.0

The starter->relief conversion that I use assumes:
H: 0.87
R/ER: 0.79
HR: .95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.16

So what those mean is, for example, if a pitcher is projected to give up 100 hits as a starter, he should give 0.87 times 100 = 87 hits as a reliever.

He's given up fewer hits than the relief conversion would have expected, and more HRs, but the BB rate and K rate are reasonably close. While his ERA is good, his peripherals are a warning that he hasn't pitched as well as the ERA shows. I have no idea whether we should expect his peripherals to improve to match his ERA, or if we should expect him to pitch closer to his FIP going forward.

Alfredo Aceves
In a season where almost every member of the bullpen has disappointed, AA is an oasis in a desert of suck. Aceves was projected as a starter, where he was expected to be slightly worse than average, but solidly above replacement level.

Alfredo Aceves	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	31	35	18	17	5	11	20	4.95	4.87	-2	2
2009 marcel projection	31	30	14	13	3	11	22	3.86	4.34	2	6
2009 pecota projection	31	35	19	17	4	10	19	5.03	4.84	-2	2
2009 tht projection	31	35	18	17	5	11	20	4.95	4.87	-2	2
2009 zips projection	31	36	19	18	5	8	16	5.19	5.18	-2	1
2009 cairo projection	31	32	18	17	4	4	17	4.83	4.37	-1	3
2009 average projection	31	34	18	17	4	9	19	4.80	4.75	-1	3
2009 YTD	31	25	8	8	4	6	27	2.32	3.72	8	11

Same deal as with Coke, if we convert his projection to a relief equivalent, we get an improved line of:

IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
31	30	14	13	3	12	25	3.89	4.20	2.1	5.2

FIP expects him to pitch closer to an ERA in the mid 3s going forward, looking at both his YTD performance and his revised projection, but he should still be a solid asset in the pen going forward.

Jose Veras

jose veras	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	26	24	12	12	3	11	26	4.05	3.80	1	4
2009 marcel projection	26	24	12	12	3	11	22	4.09	4.22	1	4
2009 pecota projection	26	23	12	11	2	11	25	3.70	3.75	2	5
2009 tht projection	26	23	12	11	2	11	26	3.85	3.70	2	5
2009 zips projection	26	25	13	12	3	12	25	4.31	4.36	1	4
2009 cairo projection	26	27	13	13	3	11	22	4.53	4.34	0	3
2009 average projection	26	24	12	12	3	11	24	4.09	4.03	1	4
2009 YTD	26	23	17	17	5	14	18	5.95	5.96	-4	-1

While Veras had a good season last year, he slumped later in the year, and his command was always a major concern. Veras's command was horrible this year and it's reflected in his results. He's been traded to Cleveland for cash considerations.

Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo was expected to be a decent back-end relief option although his projections weren't really all that good.

jonathan albaladejo	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	21	23	12	11	3	8	16	4.75	4.67	-1	2
2009 marcel projection	21	20	10	10	2	8	17	4.09	3.90	1	4
2009 pecota projection	21	23	12	11	3	8	15	4.58	4.49	0	2
2009 tht projection	21	20	10	9	3	9	16	4.03	4.44	1	4
2009 zips projection	21	23	12	11	3	8	15	4.87	4.87	-1	2
2009 cairo projection	21	24	13	12	3	6	14	5.29	4.67	-2	1
2009 average projection	21	22	12	11	3	8	15	4.60	4.51	0	2
2009 YTD	21	24	16	14	5	10	12	6.00	6.58	-4	-1

He essentially matched Veras's output though, with a few less walks and Ks. He's doing well back in Scranton/WB and may end up getting another chance this year.

Mariano F'ing Rivera
Mo's early season velocity wasn't very good as he was building up arm strength after off-season surgery. Seeing his cutter at 88-89 mph was alarming, as was seeing batters hit .306/.306/.551 against him over his first 12 games. His velocity's been better lately and over his last 16 games he's looked more like Mo, with a 2.55 ERA and with hitters hitting .185/.221/.292 against him.

Mariano Rivera	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	29	26	10	9	2	5	28	2.86	2.64	5	9
2009 marcel projection	29	26	10	10	2	6	26	3.09	3.08	5	8
2009 pecota projection	29	25	9	8	2	5	28	2.42	2.54	7	10
2009 tht projection	29	24	9	8	2	5	28	2.52	2.57	6	10
2009 zips projection	29	24	8	7	1	4	28	2.28	2.24	7	11
2009 cairo projection	29	23	8	8	2	5	27	2.38	2.61	7	10
2009 average projection	29	25	9	8	2	5	27	2.59	2.61	6	10
2009 YTD	29	27	11	10	5	3	37	3.10	3.20	5	8

A lot has been made of Mo's high K rate, and his K/9 of 11.5 is 37% higher than his projected 8.4. Even if you instead look at the more accurate Ks per batters faced, you can see that Mo has fanned 31.6% of the batters he's faced, compared to his projected 23%. That's 37% higher. So we should be comfortable that Mo will be fine going forward, although there will almost certainly be at least one more WWWMW along the way.

Team
Here are the cumulative totals for the players above:

Total	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	565	565	267	247	54	185	495	3.93	3.68	36.0	106.6
2009 marcel projection	565	544	256	236	51	187	483	3.75	3.66	46.9	117.5
2009 pecota projection	565	563	270	247	54	187	472	3.93	3.76	35.9	106.6
2009 tht projection	565	545	260	241	56	188	474	3.84	3.81	41.5	112.1
2009 zips projection	565	574	268	248	56	184	462	3.95	3.82	34.4	105.0
2009 cairo projection	565	574	278	257	56	163	456	4.10	3.75	25.4	96.0
2009 average projection	565	561	267	246	55	182	474	3.92	3.75	36.7	107.3
2009 YTD	565	549	300	279	77	222	464	4.44	4.51	3.5	74.1

The staff as comprised above has allowed 22 more HRs than expected, while walking 40 more batters and fanning 10 fewer. They've been close to three wins worse than projected to this point. At 39-32 they're on a projected 89 win pace. If they had those 3 wins, they'd be 42-29 and on a 96 win pace.

Projecting pitching is a pain in the ass, because even if you nail the peripherals, ERA is subject to fluctuations that we can't predict. If we look at the RMSE(root mean square error) for each individual pitchers' ERA, the projection systems rank like this:

Projection	rERA
chone	0.78
cairo	0.80
average	0.81
pecota	0.81
marcel	0.83
zips	0.83
tht	0.86

If we want to instead look at how well the systems did in projecting the peripherals, we can look at the RMSE of FIP, and that looks like this:

Projection	rFIP
cairo	0.83
pecota	0.84
average	0.85
tht	0.85
marcel	0.85
zips	0.86
chone	0.87

And lastly, if we average ERA and FIP and then look at the RMSE of the average, we get this:

Projection	r((ERA+FIP)/2)
cairo	0.81
pecota	0.83
chone	0.83
average	0.83
marcel	0.84
zips	0.85
tht	0.86

We do have to consider the impact of NYS on these projections, and we do also have to remember there's still close to 60% of the season left to play and a lot can change. On the whole, we can see the pitching staff has been disappointing overall, but they have been better in June and can hopefully carry that going forward.

--Posted at 1:55 pm by SG / 28 Comments | - (278)

Monday, June 22, 2009

Who Are Baseball’s Biggest Offensive Overachievers so Far in 2009?

I was looking at Joe Mauer’s incredible season so far this year and thought it would be interesting to see how much he was exceeding his projections by. Then I decided I should expand that look to everyone, so here’s a list. I’m using wOBA, which is a rate version of linear weights, but restricting it to players with at least 100 PAs, and players who are exceeding their average projected wOBA by at least 10%.

Player	PA	avgWOBA	actwOBA	Ratio
Jason Bartlett	200	.309	.434	1.405
Ben Zobrist	225	.319	.436	1.367
Joe Mauer	202	.380	.509	1.341
Adam Kennedy	176	.301	.375	1.243
Brandon Inge	273	.313	.385	1.232
Torii Hunter	260	.346	.425	1.227
Russell Branyan	251	.352	.428	1.217
Lyle Overbay	210	.337	.407	1.210
Raul Ibanez	276	.357	.431	1.207
Juan Pierre	227	.305	.368	1.207
Omir Santos	123	.273	.328	1.203
Marco Scutaro	332	.313	.375	1.198
Manny Ramirez	119	.405	.484	1.195
Nolan Reimold	122	.331	.391	1.184
Craig Counsell	185	.298	.352	1.180
Victor Martinez	310	.351	.410	1.166
Adrian Gonzalez	294	.372	.433	1.163
Ichiro Suzuki	283	.330	.384	1.162
Jamey Carroll	113	.303	.349	1.155
Evan Longoria	285	.365	.421	1.154
Clint Barmes	242	.314	.361	1.152
Ross Gload	109	.313	.360	1.148
Gary Sheffield	185	.335	.384	1.148
Chone Figgins	295	.326	.373	1.147
Elvis Andrus	202	.277	.318	1.147
Nick Green	170	.307	.352	1.146
Scott Rolen	250	.335	.383	1.144
Andruw Jones	144	.330	.377	1.144
Alex Cora	131	.299	.342	1.142
Travis Hafner	110	.370	.423	1.142
Freddy Sanchez	287	.324	.369	1.137
Juan Rivera	238	.331	.376	1.136
Julio Lugo	101	.308	.349	1.135
Justin Morneau	302	.369	.418	1.131
Casey Blake	249	.342	.386	1.129
Scott Podsednik	198	.311	.351	1.128
Michael Young	289	.334	.374	1.118
Jason Bay	295	.372	.414	1.115
Carlos Ruiz	146	.320	.356	1.113
Alberto Callaspo	246	.323	.358	1.110
Carlos Delgado	110	.361	.401	1.109
Willy Aybar	151	.333	.369	1.108
Michael Cuddyer	264	.339	.375	1.107
Brandon Phillips	257	.336	.371	1.105
Brett Gardner	150	.309	.341	1.105
Seth Smith	143	.357	.393	1.102
Nick Hundley	162	.294	.324	1.100
Ramon Santiago	115	.302	.333	1.100

PA: Plate appearances
avgWOBA: Average projeted wOBA using CHONE, marcel, Hardball Times, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO projections
actWOBA: Actual year to date wOBA
Ratio: actWOBA divided by avgWOBA (the higher this is, the more a player is excerding his projection by)

Getting back to Mauer, he is really having an incredible season. Despite missing the first 20 some games of the season he's neck and neck with Zack Greinke for most valuable player in the American League using my methodologies. Mauer is hitting .407/.475/.727 in 202 PA, which is 35 runs better than a replacement level catcher. He's also saved five runs defensively over the average catcher, making him around 40 runs better than replacement level so far. How good has Mauer been? He's 30 runs better than the two catchers that rank as the second and third most valuable catchers in the AL (Mike Napoli is +14/-4 and Jorge Posada is +13/-4). Simply amazing.

Greinke's no slouch himself. I've got him around 41 runs above a replacement level pitcher. In 101 innings he's allowed three HRs, walked 18 and struck out 106. His ridiculously low ERA of 1.96 is actually higher than his FIP of 1.91.

~~No Yankees are on the overachiever list with the cutoff I am using.~~ Err, Brett Gardner snuck onto the list when I wasn't looking. Melky's the second highest with a ratio of 1.079 (projected:.317, actual: .342).

--Posted at 2:45 pm by SG / 43 Comments | - (298)

Friday, June 19, 2009

2009 Projection Checkpoint Through Games of June 18 - Offense

With the season being about 40% over, and with me wanting to pretend the Yankees didn't just lose two of three games at home to the worst team in the league, I thought it might be interesting to look back at the pre-season projections and see how the Yankees are doing relative to their expectations. I will note one thing about yesterday's game. Waiting for over 5 hrs for the rain to go away was good for business, because it meant more concession and memoribilia sales.

I'll do a separate post for the pitching and maybe the defense later, but for now here's a look at the position players offensively.

I am going to look at the same projections that I used in the pre-season projections, pro-rated to the player's YTD playing time.

Jorge Posada
Coming off a pretty major injury and subsequent surgery, as well as being 37 years old, Posada was a big concern coming into the season. Here's how the projection systems saw him doing in 2009, as well as his actual YTD totals.

I'm going to use the absolute difference in projected wOBA versus actul wOBA to determine which projection was the closest to this point, and highlight that row in yellow. Projections will be pro-rated to the player's actual PAs at this point.

jorge posada	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	153	35	7	0	5	0	0	19	28	.266	.363	.434	21	89	30	.341	.259	.300	.382	.424	.032	6
2009 marcel projection	153	38	9	0	5	1	0	18	28	.285	.371	.466	23	97	38	.352	.269	.311	.394	.435	.021	3
2009 pecota projection	153	33	8	0	4	0	0	17	30	.249	.336	.406	19	79	20	.317	.236	.276	.357	.397	.057	7
2009 tht projection	153	37	8	0	4	0	0	18	27	.279	.373	.444	22	92	34	.350	.267	.308	.391	.432	.024	4
2009 zips projection	153	38	9	0	4	0	0	18	28	.286	.383	.455	23	96	38	.358	.275	.316	.400	.441	.016	2
2009 cairo projection	153	38	9	1	4	0	0	19	28	.289	.386	.465	23	99	40	.362	.279	.320	.404	.446	.011	1
2009 average projection	153	37	8	0	4	0	0	18	28	.276	.369	.445	22	92	33	.347	.264	.305	.388	.429	.027	3
2009 actuals	153	37	8	0	9	1	0	19	29	.282	.373	.550	26	111	12	.374	.289	.331	.416	.458

BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR/650: BR above replacement level adjusted for primary position
wOBA: Weighted on base average
-2 Std: wOBA minus 2 standard deviations
-1 Std: wOBA minus 1 standard deviation
+1 Std: wOBA plus 1 standard deviations (Stdev for wOBA = SQRT(
+2 Std: wOBA plus 2 standard deviations
Diff: Absolute value of wOBA minus projected wOBA
Rank: Projection systems ranked from smallest to largest Diff (lower means closer)

In Posada's case, he's blowing away all his projections, although the deadly accurate CAIRO systems is of course the closest. Catchers don't get 650 PAs, but at his current pace Posada would be more than one win better offensively than his average projection. Of course, one thing we have to keep in mind with the projections here is New Yankee Stadium. If the projections assumed NYS would have the same park factors as the old stadium or would play neutral then the numbers are all going to be low for hitters and high for pitchers.

Of course, we shouldn't expect Posada to play at his current pace going forward, we should realistically expect him to play a little closer to his projections over the rest of the season. That would still be a solid comeback season as long as he can stay reasonably healthy

Mark Teixeira

mark teixeira	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	284	70	15	0	14	1	0	36	48	.286	.381	.521	47	108	33	.374	.312	.343	.405	.436	.023	5
2009 marcel projection	284	71	17	0	13	1	0	36	48	.292	.393	.522	48	110	36	.381	.319	.350	.412	.443	.016	1
2009 pecota projection	284	70	15	1	12	1	0	35	45	.287	.379	.506	46	104	30	.367	.306	.336	.398	.429	.029	7
2009 tht projection	284	70	16	0	13	0	0	35	47	.287	.383	.513	47	106	32	.373	.311	.342	.403	.434	.024	6
2009 zips projection	284	71	17	0	13	1	0	37	46	.292	.392	.517	48	109	35	.379	.317	.348	.410	.441	.018	2
2009 cairo projection	284	71	16	0	14	1	0	36	47	.291	.387	.528	48	110	35	.378	.316	.347	.409	.440	.019	3
2009 average projection	284	71	16	0	13	1	0	36	47	.289	.386	.518	47	108	33	.375	.313	.344	.406	.437	.021	4
2009 actuals	284	68	18	0	20	0	0	36	41	.283	.387	.608	54	124	21	.397	.334	.365	.428	.459

Teixeira's been a bust, if you define bust as being much better than projected. Theo Epstein's brilliant plan to trick the Yankees into overpaying for him has crippled them for years to come. Score one for Marcel so far here.

Robinson Cano

robinson cano	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	285	81	18	2	8	2	1	14	31	.300	.340	.468	40	90	27	.336	.276	.306	.366	.396	.012	1
2009 marcel projection	285	78	18	1	7	2	2	15	34	.295	.334	.455	38	86	22	.328	.268	.298	.358	.387	.020	6
2009 pecota projection	285	76	16	1	6	2	1	14	33	.284	.322	.419	34	77	14	.311	.252	.282	.340	.370	.037	7
2009 tht projection	285	79	17	1	7	1	1	15	34	.296	.339	.453	38	87	23	.332	.272	.302	.362	.391	.016	3
2009 zips projection	285	80	18	2	8	1	2	14	31	.296	.335	.474	39	90	26	.335	.275	.305	.365	.395	.013	2
2009 cairo projection	285	79	18	2	8	1	2	13	33	.296	.332	.464	38	87	24	.329	.270	.299	.359	.389	.019	4
2009 average projection	285	79	17	2	7	2	1	14	33	.295	.334	.455	38	86	23	.328	.269	.299	.358	.388	.020	3
2009 actuals	285	84	16	1	12	3	2	13	20	.311	.340	.511	43	98	15	.348	.287	.318	.378	.409

A Cano rebound was one of the key things the Yankees needed in 2009 to move their way back towards the playoffs. The projection systems expected a rebound, but Cano's been a little better than expected, primarily because of a boost in his HR rate. He's hit 5 more HRs than expected on a rate basis. He still doesn't walk and he's still streaky, but he's clearly better than he showed last year and is showing it in 2009. CHONE is the closest here.

Derek Jeter

derek jeter	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	289	76	13	1	5	5	2	26	43	.294	.366	.415	38	86	26	.339	.279	.309	.369	.398	.015	3
2009 marcel projection	289	78	13	1	5	7	2	24	42	.303	.355	.428	38	86	26	.333	.273	.303	.362	.392	.022	6
2009 pecota projection	289	74	12	2	3	6	2	24	41	.288	.350	.383	34	77	17	.319	.261	.290	.349	.378	.035	7
2009 tht projection	289	78	14	1	4	6	2	23	41	.298	.365	.400	37	84	23	.335	.275	.305	.365	.394	.019	5
2009 zips projection	289	79	13	2	5	6	2	24	42	.302	.371	.421	39	88	28	.344	.284	.314	.374	.404	.010	1
2009 cairo projection	289	78	13	2	5	6	2	25	42	.303	.370	.427	39	89	28	.343	.283	.313	.373	.403	.011	2
2009 average projection	289	77	13	1	5	6	2	24	42	.298	.363	.412	38	85	25	.335	.276	.306	.365	.395	.019	4
2009 actuals	289	79	12	0	9	13	1	27	32	.305	.374	.456	44	99	17	.354	.294	.324	.384	.415

Yet another Yankee who's exceeding expectations to this point, Jeter is showing more pop, walking more, and striking out less this year. He's even stealing bases at a higher clip than expected. ZiPS is the closest here, but none of the projections are really all that close.

Alex Rodriguez

alex rodriguez	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	165	41	7	0	10	4	1	21	32	.294	.397	.564	30	119	50	.394	.312	.353	.436	.477	.042	7
2009 marcel projection	165	41	8	0	9	4	1	20	32	.289	.379	.545	29	113	44	.376	.295	.336	.417	.457	.024	2
2009 pecota projection	165	40	8	0	8	5	1	19	33	.282	.373	.508	27	106	37	.365	.284	.324	.405	.445	.013	1
2009 tht projection	165	41	8	0	10	4	1	20	32	.292	.392	.552	30	117	48	.388	.307	.347	.429	.470	.036	4
2009 zips projection	165	41	8	0	10	4	1	20	32	.292	.395	.549	30	117	48	.389	.307	.348	.430	.471	.037	5
2009 cairo projection	165	41	7	0	9	4	1	21	32	.296	.398	.553	30	118	49	.391	.309	.350	.432	.473	.039	6
2009 average projection	165	41	8	0	9	4	1	20	32	.291	.389	.545	29	115	46	.384	.302	.343	.425	.466	.032	5
2009 actuals	165	28	6	0	9	2	0	29	24	.212	.370	.462	25	97	7	.352	.272	.312	.392	.432

Obviously we have extenuating circumstances here, but Rodriguez hasn't been able to match his projections to this point. PECOTA finally gets one right(at least so far) after being dead last with the first four players.

Johnny Damon

johnny damon	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	279	69	12	1	7	9	2	28	37	.276	.351	.417	37	85	14	.330	.270	.300	.360	.391	.027	5
2009 marcel projection	279	68	13	1	7	11	3	28	39	.276	.348	.428	37	87	16	.329	.269	.299	.360	.390	.028	6
2009 pecota projection	279	69	13	2	6	11	3	28	39	.280	.353	.423	37	87	16	.331	.271	.301	.361	.392	.026	4
2009 tht projection	279	68	13	1	6	11	2	29	39	.273	.351	.412	37	85	14	.328	.268	.298	.359	.389	.029	7
2009 zips projection	279	73	13	2	7	11	3	28	35	.291	.363	.438	39	92	20	.342	.281	.312	.373	.403	.015	1
2009 cairo projection	279	70	13	2	7	10	3	28	38	.282	.354	.433	38	89	17	.335	.274	.304	.365	.395	.022	2
2009 average projection	279	70	13	2	7	10	3	28	38	.280	.353	.425	38	88	16	.333	.272	.302	.363	.393	.024	5
2009 actuals	279	70	16	2	14	5	0	27	43	.281	.351	.530	46	106	15	.357	.295	.326	.388	.419

Damon's yet another Yankee far exceeding expectations. When this many players are doing this, it's obvious the park is a big factor.

Melky Cabrera

melky cabrera	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	206	52	9	1	4	5	2	17	25	.280	.345	.402	25	80	14	.322	.252	.287	.357	.392	.000	1
2009 marcel projection	206	50	8	1	3	4	1	17	26	.271	.330	.383	23	74	8	.307	.238	.272	.341	.376	.015	4
2009 pecota projection	206	50	8	1	3	4	2	16	26	.267	.324	.376	22	71	5	.302	.233	.267	.336	.370	.020	7
2009 tht projection	206	51	8	1	3	4	1	16	26	.270	.331	.376	23	73	7	.308	.239	.274	.342	.377	.014	2
2009 zips projection	206	50	7	2	4	4	1	15	26	.265	.324	.383	23	72	6	.305	.236	.271	.339	.374	.017	5
2009 cairo projection	206	50	8	1	3	4	2	16	26	.268	.325	.382	23	72	6	.303	.235	.269	.338	.372	.019	6
2009 average projection	206	50	8	1	3	4	2	16	26	.270	.330	.384	23	73	8	.308	.239	.273	.342	.377	.014	5
2009 actuals	206	53	9	0	6	4	2	16	28	.286	.335	.432	26	82	5	.322	.252	.287	.357	.392

Although he's cooled off lately, Melky's still ahead of where he projected to be. Only CHONE saw him slugging .400 this season, and he's currently at .403.

Brett Gardner

brett gardner	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	152	35	6	2	1	10	3	16	31	.258	.341	.345	17	73	7	.305	.225	.265	.345	.385	.007	1
2009 marcel projection	152	35	7	1	3	7	1	12	28	.257	.311	.386	17	74	8	.295	.216	.255	.334	.374	.018	6
2009 pecota projection	152	33	6	2	1	10	3	17	30	.253	.334	.351	17	72	7	.300	.221	.261	.340	.380	.012	4
2009 tht projection	152	34	5	2	2	9	2	17	29	.251	.338	.349	17	74	9	.305	.225	.265	.345	.385	.008	2
2009 zips projection	152	34	4	2	1	12	2	16	31	.249	.331	.321	16	69	4	.294	.215	.255	.334	.373	.019	7
2009 cairo projection	152	34	5	2	1	5	1	16	30	.254	.338	.334	16	68	3	.301	.222	.262	.341	.381	.011	3
2009 average projection	152	34	5	2	1	9	2	16	30	.254	.332	.348	17	72	6	.300	.221	.260	.340	.380	.013	3
2009 actuals	152	36	4	2	2	14	2	15	19	.277	.342	.385	20	84	4	.313	.232	.272	.353	.393

He's gritty. He's gutty. He's fast. He's outhitting his projections. The one encouraging thing I see here is he's striking out at a significantly less frequent rate than projected, with no change in his walk rate. While he's probably still not quite good enough to be a starting CF, he's a good player to have around when you want to put a pinch runner in to steal second and third and then get stranded, and he's a decent glove in CF as well. Score another one for CHONE by a whisker.

Nick Swisher

nick swisher	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	254	53	11	0	11	1	0	36	56	.247	.360	.454	36	92	21	.345	.281	.313	.377	.409	.021	2
2009 marcel projection	254	52	11	0	10	1	1	35	55	.245	.357	.434	34	88	16	.337	.273	.305	.369	.400	.028	6
2009 pecota projection	254	52	11	1	11	1	1	34	58	.244	.352	.460	36	91	20	.340	.276	.308	.372	.403	.025	5
2009 tht projection	254	53	11	0	10	1	1	35	55	.247	.359	.447	35	91	19	.342	.278	.310	.374	.406	.023	3
2009 zips projection	254	55	12	1	11	1	1	35	58	.254	.366	.471	38	96	25	.352	.288	.320	.384	.416	.013	1
2009 cairo projection	254	51	12	1	10	1	1	35	56	.240	.353	.442	35	88	17	.336	.272	.304	.368	.399	.029	7
2009 average projection	254	53	11	1	11	1	1	35	56	.246	.358	.451	36	91	20	.342	.278	.310	.374	.406	.023	4
2009 actuals	254	49	15	1	12	0	0	46	56	.244	.382	.507	41	105	13	.365	.300	.333	.398	.430

After a brutal season on the South Side of Chicago, Swisher's rebounded nicely. The big difference here is he's walking more than he was projected to. His average is actually lower than any of the systems projected. ZiPS is the closest so far.

Hideki Matsui

hideki matsui	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
2009 chone projection	227	56	10	0	7	1	0	25	28	.277	.360	.443	31	90	11	.342	.275	.308	.376	.410	0.004	2
2009 marcel projection	227	55	10	1	7	2	1	24	30	.277	.358	.443	31	89	11	.340	.273	.307	.374	.408	0.002	1
2009 pecota projection	227	55	10	1	6	1	0	23	31	.275	.352	.417	29	83	5	.330	.263	.296	.363	.396	0.008	6
2009 tht projection	227	56	11	1	7	1	1	25	30	.279	.364	.441	31	90	12	.344	.276	.310	.378	.412	0.006	4
2009 zips projection	227	58	12	1	7	1	1	25	26	.290	.371	.476	34	97	19	.357	.288	.322	.391	.425	0.019	7
2009 cairo projection	227	56	11	1	7	1	0	24	29	.283	.361	.454	32	91	13	.344	.276	.310	.378	.412	0.006	5
2009 average projection	227	56	11	1	7	1	1	24	29	.280	.361	.446	31	90	12	.343	.275	.309	.377	.410	0.005	5
2009 actuals	227	49	12	1	10	0	0	26	36	.249	.344	.472	32	92	5	.338	.271	.304	.372	.405

Matsui's hitting a little worse than projected and as a DH his current line isn't much above replacement level (I set replacement level DH to league average hitting). He's not having a terrible season by any means though. When Xavier Nady returns I'd like to see Matsui rested a little more though.

I"m not going to get into the bench players since the small sample size of their playing time makes comparisons to projections basically useless.

Here's how it looks if you add up all the projections for all the players above compared to their actuals.

Totals	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	Diff	Rank
chone	2294	569	108	11	71	38	11	238	362	.279	.360	.448	322	91		.343	.322	.332	.354	.364	0.013	2
marcel	2294	566	113	9	68	39	12	228	362	.280	.354	.446	317	90		.337	.316	.327	.348	.359	0.019	6
pecota	2294	553	107	11	62	41	13	228	366	.274	.349	.429	303	86		.331	.310	.320	.341	.352	0.025	7
tht	2294	571	112	10	67	39	12	232	357	.280	.360	.443	320	91		.342	.320	.331	.352	.363	0.014	4
zips	2294	576	113	12	69	43	14	232	356	.283	.362	.451	326	92		.345	.324	.335	.356	.367	0.011	1
cairo	2294	568	112	11	68	33	12	234	360	.281	.360	.449	322	91		.342	.321	.332	.353	.363	0.014	3
average	2294	560	112	11	71	38	12	234	367	.276	.356	.447	319	90		.340	.318	.329	.350	.361	0.016	5
actuals	2067	504	104	6	93	42	7	228	292	.280	.362	.500	324	102		.356	.333	.345	.367	.378	0.000

If you compare the team wOBA to the projected wOBA using the same playing time, we can see how the projections have fared overall.

Projection	Diff
zips	0.011
chone	0.013
cairo	0.014
tht	0.014
marcel	0.019
pecota	0.025
average	0.016

In the specific ccase of the Yankees' main starting position players, ZiPS has been the closest. CHONE is second, and CAIRO comes in third, which makes me happy. One thing to note is that PECOTA is the worst by far. While there's still a lot of season left and things can change, can we put to notion that PECOTA is head and shoulders above any other projection system to rest now? I see little reason to think it's any better than any other system at this point.

So the good news is that the Yankee offense is playing much better than expected, whether it's due to the New Stadium or not.. Unless they're facing the dominant Nationals starting rotation or Fernando Nieve.

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (249)

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

The Sky is Falling…. NOT!

Although it seems like the Yankees are off to a disappointing start so far, that's not really the case. Here is where we should have expected them to be at this point in the season using Bill James's log5 method for calculating expected winning percentage between opponents.

Date	Game	Yankee W%	Opp W%	log5 W	log5 L	Act W	Act L	Diff
4/6/2009	Yankees at Orioles	.578	.422	0.6	0.4	0.0	1.0	-0.6
4/8/2009	Yankees at Orioles	.578	.422	1.2	0.8	0.0	2.0	-1.2
4/9/2009	Yankees at Orioles	.578	.422	1.7	1.3	1.0	2.0	-0.7
4/10/2009	Yankees at Royals	.587	.413	2.3	1.7	2.0	2.0	-0.3
4/11/2009	Yankees at Royals	.587	.413	2.9	2.1	3.0	2.0	0.1
4/12/2009	Yankees at Royals	.587	.413	3.5	2.5	3.0	3.0	-0.5
4/13/2009	Yankees at Rays	.471	.529	4.0	3.0	3.0	4.0	-1.0
4/14/2009	Yankees at Rays	.471	.529	4.4	3.6	4.0	4.0	-0.4

Yankee W%: Yankees expected winning percentage adjusted for home/road games.
Opp W%: Yankee opponents' expected winning percentage adjusted for home/road games.
log5 W: Expected wins based on Yankee and opponent winning percentage using the log5 formula.
log5 L: Expected losses based on Yankee and opponent winning percentage using the log5 formula.
Act W: Actual wins.
Act L: Actual losses.
Diff: Act W - log5 W

Team winning percentages are calculated with PythagenPat and the teams' runs scored/allowed, with a weight of 5% for 2009 YTD performance and 95% for 2009 projected performance(using the combined projections from the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout). There's generally been a home field advantage of 0.04 over the last few years (ie, a .500 team would be expected to be around .540 at home), so I add .02 to the home team's winning percentage and subtract .02 from the road team's.

Now, obviously, teams can't win partial games in actuality, but we're dealing with stat dorkery here. The Yankees at this point would have been in the 4.4-3.6 area after eight games if they had played to expectations (remember that they are on the road so our expectations should be tempered slightly). So with last night's win, they're only .4 games off their pace. If they win today, they'll be right where log5 says they should have been.

On a tangentially related note, I noticed that the Marlins and Padres are playing much better than expected to so far this season, so I thought it would be interesting to look at what the early season records mean. Let's assume that all year to date performance doesn't tell us ANYTHING about what's transpired to this point. Using the teams' 2009 projected winning percentages pro-rated over their remaining games, we can see how many wins teams should expect going forward and add that to their actual wins to date, and then see which teams have over and underperformed by the largest margin to this point. One note, doing it this way doesn't account for strength of schedule and the home/road splits for the games already played which could skew these numbers slightly. Here's the list sorted in order from biggest overachievers to biggest underachievers.

Team	Prj W	Prj L	Rev W	Rev L	Gain
Florida	72.5	89.5	76.1	85.9	3.6
San Diego	74.5	87.5	77.3	84.7	2.8
Baltimore	74.5	87.5	77.2	84.8	2.7
Seattle	77.8	84.2	80.4	81.6	2.5
Toronto	75.7	86.3	77.5	84.5	1.8
St. Louis	84.1	77.9	85.5	76.5	1.4
Atlanta	86.7	75.3	88.0	74.0	1.3
Pittsburgh	69.8	92.2	71.0	91.0	1.2
Oakland	81.3	80.7	82.4	79.6	1.1
Chicago Cubs	91.5	70.5	92.3	69.7	0.9
Cincinnati	77.8	84.2	78.6	83.4	0.8
Tampa Bay	90.1	71.9	90.7	71.3	0.6
Kansas City	74.6	87.4	75.0	87.0	0.4
Chicago Sox	74.1	87.9	74.5	87.5	0.4
Detroit	81.5	80.5	81.9	80.1	0.4
LA Dodgers	87.8	74.2	87.9	74.1	0.1
Colorado	79.0	83.0	78.7	83.3	-0.3
Philadelphia	86.0	76.0	85.6	76.4	-0.4
LA Angels	85.5	76.5	84.7	77.3	-0.7
Minnesota	79.5	82.5	78.5	83.5	-1.0
San Francisco	79.3	82.7	78.2	83.8	-1.0
NY Mets	88.1	73.9	86.8	75.2	-1.3
Texas	71.3	90.7	70.0	92.0	-1.3
NY Yankees	96.0	66.0	94.4	67.6	-1.6
Arizona	83.7	78.3	82.0	80.0	-1.7
Houston	73.0	89.0	71.1	90.9	-2.0
Milwaukee	81.8	80.2	79.8	82.2	-2.1
Boston	94.4	67.6	91.8	70.2	-2.6
Washington	72.7	89.3	70.0	92.0	-2.8
Cleveland	85.6	76.4	82.7	79.3	-2.8

Prj W: Projected wins according to the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout(combined projections)
Prj L: Projected losses
Rev W: Revised wins (YTD wins plus pro-rated wins for the rest of the season using pre-season projected winning percentage)
Rev L: Revised losses(YTD losses plus pro-rated losses)
Gain : Rev W minus Prj W

Other random stuff
Xavier Nady left yesterday's game with an injury to his right elbow. It's the same elbow he had Tommy John surgery on in 2001, and he'll be getting an MRI. If Nady's out for a non-trivial amount of time, it means more playing time for Nick Swisher(good) and more playing time for Melky Cabrera (ungood). It also hurts the Yankee depth, which was the primary reason I felt that Brian Cashman should NOT have traded one of Nady/Swisher this offseason. Anyway, we'll know more later so no sense worrying about it right now.

Nick Swisher is becoming one of my favorite players, and it's nice to see him playing so well after his disastrous 2008. You can tell he loves playing.

A.J. Burnett =/= Carl Pavano. So far, Burnett has been great. He's a blast to watch when he's throwing like he was last night. I really thought he was going to get the no-hitter with how sharp he looked.

Brian Bruney was dealing last night. While I still worry about his command, I think he's going to end up as the second best reliever in the pen by the end of the season.

Brett Gardner came into last night with a line of .227/.261/.273 and left with a line of .296/.321/.407. Go Brett.

--Posted at 6:40 am by SG / 83 Comments | - (219)

Monday, April 6, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Pitching Staff Wrapup

The Yankees re-made their starting rotation by bringing in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. With Chien-Ming Wang back from his injury, Andy Pettitte back as the #4 starter instead of the #2 starter and Joba Chamberlain hopefully spending a full season in the rotation and giving them 30-40 more innings, they should be pretty clearly improved over last year, but let's look at what the projections think. Defense is already incorporated in these projections so I will not double-count it by adding it in again.

Scenario 1: Optimistic
Because of the volatility of projecting pitchers in both health and effectiveness, I don't like doing just one projection for the pitching staff. So I'm going to present three different scenarios. First scenario will be what happens if everything goes to plan.

Pitcher	Role	IP	cairo			chone			hbt			marcel
			R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP
C.C. Sabathia	SP1	220	95	3.48	3.44	91	3.41	3.33	86	3.25	3.28	84	3.07	3.13
A.J. Burnett	SP2	200	100	4.07	3.58	93	3.88	3.76	92	3.85	3.76	97	3.99	3.72
Chien-Ming Wang	SP3	200	97	4.16	4.04	107	4.47	3.97	93	3.88	4.07	90	3.83	3.89
Andy Pettitte	SP4	200	109	4.45	3.98	104	4.31	3.93	102	4.27	4.04	106	4.38	3.99
Joba Chamberlain	SP5	150	62	3.45	3.36	61	3.39	3.39	58	3.20	3.19	56	3.07	3.14
Phil Hughes	SP6	70	37	4.53	3.94	36	4.28	4.21	36	4.28	4.27	38	4.61	4.19
Ian Kennedy	SP7	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Alfredo Aceves	SP8	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Mariano Rivera	Cl	70	20	2.38	2.61	24	2.86	2.79	21	2.52	2.57	25	3.09	3.08
Damaso Marte	SU	60	30	4.09	3.77	28	3.78	3.76	27	3.73	3.72	28	3.92	3.62
Brian Bruney	SU	50	29	4.95	4.84	25	4.11	4.29	23	3.80	4.22	22	3.56	4.10
Jose Veras	MR	50	26	4.53	4.34	24	4.05	3.95	23	3.85	3.70	24	4.09	4.22
Edwar Ramirez	MR	50	22	3.72	3.77	20	3.38	3.43	24	3.92	3.69	26	4.42	4.22
Phil Coke	MR	40	22	4.62	4.10	16	3.38	3.73	21	4.32	5.33	15	3.13	3.64
Jonathan Albaladejo	MR	40	25	5.29	4.67	23	4.75	4.76	19	4.03	4.44	19	4.09	3.90
David Robertson	MR	20	8	3.47	3.04	10	4.08	4.11	10	4.08	3.99	11	4.50	3.95
Mark Melancon	LR	20	12	4.79	3.96	12	4.73	4.85	10	4.19	4.39	10	4.32	4.32
Kei Igawa	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Dan Giese	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Total		1440	692	4.01	3.75	674	3.89	3.63	645	3.73	3.76	653	3.76	3.68

Pitcher	Role	IP	pecota			zips			Average
			R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP
C.C. Sabathia	SP1	220	92	3.43	3.38	81	3.07	3.23	88	3.29	3.28
A.J. Burnett	SP2	200	93	3.82	3.73	95	3.97	3.86	95	3.93	3.71
Chien-Ming Wang	SP3	200	109	4.39	4.19	94	3.92	3.80	98	4.11	3.98
Andy Pettitte	SP4	200	107	4.41	4.02	106	4.43	3.99	106	4.37	3.98
Joba Chamberlain	SP5	150	57	3.09	3.05	68	3.77	3.61	60	3.33	3.27
Phil Hughes	SP6	70	40	4.74	4.27	36	4.27	3.83	37	4.45	4.10
Ian Kennedy	SP7	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Alfredo Aceves	SP8	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Mariano Rivera	Cl	70	21	2.42	2.54	19	2.28	2.24	22	2.59	2.61
Damaso Marte	SU	60	27	3.76	3.84	26	3.58	3.60	28	3.81	3.70
Brian Bruney	SU	50	27	4.47	4.69	28	4.63	4.90	26	4.25	4.48
Jose Veras	MR	50	22	3.70	3.75	26	4.31	4.36	24	4.09	4.03
Edwar Ramirez	MR	50	21	3.51	3.69	23	3.86	3.58	23	3.80	3.71
Phil Coke	MR	40	19	3.97	4.21	19	3.90	4.53	19	3.88	4.25
Jonathan Albaladejo	MR	40	22	4.58	4.49	23	4.87	4.87	22	4.60	4.51
David Robertson	MR	20	9	3.62	3.40	10	4.13	3.78	10	3.98	3.69
Mark Melancon	LR	20	11	4.34	4.09	12	5.02	4.82	11	4.56	4.39
Kei Igawa	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Dan Giese	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Total		1440	678	3.86	3.75	666	3.86	3.76	668	3.85	3.72

With this pitching staff, the Yankees would project to win 99 games on paper, although we have to adjust that downward for strength of AL East, so figure around 97.

Scenario 2: More Realistic

Pitcher	Role	IP	cairo			chone			hbt			marcel
			R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP
C.C. Sabathia	SP1	200	86	3.48	3.44	82	3.41	3.33	78	3.25	3.28	77	3.07	3.13
A.J. Burnett	SP2	180	90	4.07	3.58	84	3.88	3.76	83	3.85	3.76	88	3.99	3.72
Chien-Ming Wang	SP3	175	85	4.16	4.04	93	4.47	3.97	81	3.88	4.07	79	3.83	3.89
Andy Pettitte	SP4	175	95	4.45	3.98	91	4.31	3.93	90	4.27	4.04	93	4.38	3.99
Joba Chamberlain	SP5	125	52	3.45	3.36	51	3.39	3.39	48	3.20	3.19	47	3.07	3.14
Phil Hughes	SP6	100	54	4.53	3.94	51	4.28	4.21	51	4.28	4.27	55	4.61	4.19
Ian Kennedy	SP7	50	30	4.84	4.48	27	4.41	4.51	28	4.63	4.68	30	5.01	4.35
Alfredo Aceves	SP8	35	20	4.83	4.37	21	4.95	4.96	21	4.95	4.87	16	3.86	4.34
Mariano Rivera	Cl	70	20	2.38	2.61	24	2.86	2.79	21	2.52	2.57	25	3.09	3.08
Damaso Marte	SU	60	30	4.09	3.77	28	3.78	3.76	27	3.73	3.72	28	3.92	3.62
Brian Bruney	SU	50	29	4.95	4.84	25	4.11	4.29	23	3.80	4.22	22	3.56	4.10
Jose Veras	MR	50	26	4.53	4.34	24	4.05	3.95	23	3.85	3.70	24	4.09	4.22
Edwar Ramirez	MR	50	22	3.72	3.77	20	3.38	3.43	24	3.92	3.69	26	4.42	4.22
Phil Coke	MR	40	22	4.62	4.10	16	3.38	3.73	21	4.32	5.33	15	3.13	3.64
Jonathan Albaladejo	MR	40	25	5.29	4.67	23	4.75	4.76	19	4.03	4.44	19	4.09	3.90
David Robertson	MR	20	8	3.47	3.04	10	4.08	4.11	10	4.08	3.99	11	4.50	3.95
Mark Melancon	LR	20	12	4.79	3.96	12	4.73	4.85	10	4.19	4.39	10	4.32	4.32
Kei Igawa	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Dan Giese	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Total		1440	703	4.07	3.80	683	3.94	3.70	658	3.81	3.84	664	3.83	3.74

Pitcher	Role	IP	pecota			zips			Average
			R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP
C.C. Sabathia	SP1	200	83	3.43	3.38	74	3.07	3.23	80	3.29	3.28
A.J. Burnett	SP2	180	84	3.82	3.73	86	3.97	3.86	86	3.93	3.71
Chien-Ming Wang	SP3	175	95	4.39	4.19	82	3.92	3.80	86	4.11	3.98
Andy Pettitte	SP4	175	94	4.41	4.02	93	4.43	3.99	93	4.37	3.98
Joba Chamberlain	SP5	125	47	3.09	3.05	57	3.77	3.61	50	3.33	3.27
Phil Hughes	SP6	100	58	4.74	4.27	51	4.27	3.83	53	4.45	4.10
Ian Kennedy	SP7	50	28	4.71	4.52	27	4.57	4.39	28	4.70	4.47
Alfredo Aceves	SP8	35	21	5.03	4.84	22	5.19	5.18	20	4.80	4.75
Mariano Rivera	Cl	70	21	2.42	2.54	19	2.28	2.24	22	2.59	2.61
Damaso Marte	SU	60	27	3.76	3.84	26	3.58	3.60	28	3.81	3.70
Brian Bruney	SU	50	27	4.47	4.69	28	4.63	4.90	26	4.25	4.48
Jose Veras	MR	50	22	3.70	3.75	26	4.31	4.36	24	4.09	4.03
Edwar Ramirez	MR	50	21	3.51	3.69	23	3.86	3.58	23	3.80	3.71
Phil Coke	MR	40	19	3.97	4.21	19	3.90	4.53	19	3.88	4.25
Jonathan Albaladejo	MR	40	22	4.58	4.49	23	4.87	4.87	22	4.60	4.51
David Robertson	MR	20	9	3.62	3.40	10	4.13	3.78	10	3.98	3.69
Mark Melancon	LR	20	11	4.34	4.09	12	5.02	4.82	11	4.56	4.39
Kei Igawa	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Dan Giese	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Total		1440	690	3.93	3.82	678	3.92	3.82	679	3.92	3.79

In this scenario, I removed innings from the starting five, but kept the bullpen the same. Removing those innings cost the Yankees a win, thanks to reasonably good projections for Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves. That may or may not be a faulty assumption

Scenario 3: Disaster (or when Kei Igawa strikes)
Let's say Sabathia's workload catches up to him and he misses some time. Let's also say A.J. Burnett misses a chunk of the season too, and let's under-estimate the Wang/Pettitte/Chamberlain innings>

Pitcher	Role	IP	cairo			chone			hbt			marcel
			R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP
C.C. Sabathia	SP1	175	75	3.48	3.44	72	3.41	3.33	68	3.25	3.28	67	3.07	3.13
A.J. Burnett	SP2	150	75	4.07	3.58	70	3.88	3.76	69	3.85	3.76	73	3.99	3.72
Chien-Ming Wang	SP3	150	73	4.16	4.04	80	4.47	3.97	70	3.88	4.07	67	3.83	3.89
Andy Pettitte	SP4	150	82	4.45	3.98	78	4.31	3.93	77	4.27	4.04	80	4.38	3.99
Joba Chamberlain	SP5	100	41	3.45	3.36	41	3.39	3.39	38	3.20	3.19	38	3.07	3.14
Phil Hughes	SP6	50	27	4.53	3.94	26	4.28	4.21	26	4.28	4.27	27	4.61	4.19
Ian Kennedy	SP7	50	30	4.84	4.48	27	4.41	4.51	28	4.63	4.68	30	5.01	4.35
Alfredo Aceves	SP8	50	29	4.83	4.37	30	4.95	4.96	30	4.95	4.87	23	3.86	4.34
Kei Igawa	SP9	165	116	5.95	5.01	94	4.77	4.82	111	5.59	5.61	98	5.08	4.89
Mariano Rivera	Cl	70	20	2.38	2.61	24	2.86	2.79	21	2.52	2.57	25	3.09	3.08
Damaso Marte	SU	60	30	4.09	3.77	28	3.78	3.76	27	3.73	3.72	28	3.92	3.62
Brian Bruney	SU	50	29	4.95	4.84	25	4.11	4.29	23	3.80	4.22	22	3.56	4.10
Jose Veras	MR	50	26	4.53	4.34	24	4.05	3.95	23	3.85	3.70	24	4.09	4.22
Edwar Ramirez	MR	50	17	2.95	3.44	16	2.68	3.08	19	3.11	3.70	21	3.51	3.92
Phil Coke	MR	40	27	5.82	4.33	20	4.25	4.02	26	5.44	5.33	19	3.94	3.89
Jonathan Albaladejo	MR	40	25	5.29	4.67	23	4.75	4.76	19	4.03	4.44	19	4.09	3.90
David Robertson	MR	20	8	3.47	3.04	10	4.08	4.11	10	4.08	3.99	11	4.50	3.95
Mark Melancon	LR	20	12	4.79	3.96	12	4.73	4.85	10	4.19	4.39	10	4.32	4.32
Dan Giese	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Total		1440	740	4.30	3.95	699	4.03	3.82	694	4.02	4.05	682	3.95	3.87

Pitcher	Role	IP	pecota			zips			Average
			R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP	R	ERA	FIP
C.C. Sabathia	SP1	175	73	3.43	3.38	64	3.07	3.23	70	3.29	3.28
A.J. Burnett	SP2	150	70	3.82	3.73	71	3.97	3.86	71	3.93	3.71
Chien-Ming Wang	SP3	150	81	4.39	4.19	71	3.92	3.80	74	4.11	3.98
Andy Pettitte	SP4	150	80	4.41	4.02	80	4.43	3.99	79	4.37	3.98
Joba Chamberlain	SP5	100	38	3.09	3.05	45	3.77	3.61	40	3.33	3.27
Phil Hughes	SP6	50	29	4.74	4.27	26	4.27	3.83	27	4.45	4.10
Ian Kennedy	SP7	50	28	4.71	4.52	27	4.57	4.39	28	4.70	4.47
Alfredo Aceves	SP8	50	30	5.03	4.84	31	5.19	5.18	29	4.80	4.75
Kei Igawa	SP9	165	105	5.31	5.05	117	5.91	5.71	107	5.43	5.17
Mariano Rivera	Cl	70	21	2.42	2.54	19	2.28	2.24	22	2.59	2.61
Damaso Marte	SU	60	27	3.76	3.84	26	3.58	3.60	28	3.81	3.70
Brian Bruney	SU	50	27	4.47	4.69	28	4.63	4.90	26	4.25	4.48
Jose Veras	MR	50	22	3.70	3.75	26	4.31	4.36	24	4.09	4.03
Edwar Ramirez	MR	50	17	2.79	3.38	18	3.06	3.22	18	3.02	3.43
Phil Coke	MR	40	24	4.99	4.43	24	4.91	4.72	23	4.89	4.44
Jonathan Albaladejo	MR	40	22	4.58	4.49	23	4.87	4.87	22	4.60	4.51
David Robertson	MR	20	9	3.62	3.40	10	4.13	3.78	10	3.98	3.69
Mark Melancon	LR	20	11	4.34	4.09	12	5.02	4.82	11	4.56	4.39
Dan Giese	LR	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
Total		1440	715	4.09	3.96	718	4.16	4.05	708	4.09	3.95

That costs the Yankees about four wins.

Conclusion
So assuming the Yankees will score 851 runs, here's what we're looking at:
Scenario 1: 851 RS/666 RA, 99-63 Pythagenpat W-L, 97-65 AL East adjusted.
Scenario 2: 851 RS/678 RA, 98-64 Pythagenpat W-L, 96-66 AL East adjusted.
Scenario 3: 851 RS/708 RA, 95-67 Pythagenpat W-L, 93-69 AL East adjusted.

It's possible more could go wrong than that on both offense and defense, but it's Opening Day! Let's be a little optimistic.

Since the possiblities as far as playing time are basically limitless, I've uploaded my projection spreadsheet for anyone who wants to play around with different combinations. The only fields that you have to edit are highlighted in light green. You have to type in the player's name as First Name "space" Last Name, then fill in their plate appearances/innings and then the rest of the sheet should automatically populate. Team totals should add up to around 6500 PA on offense, 1440 innings for pitching.

How awesome is Opening Day?

--Posted at 10:59 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (297)

Looking Ahead to 2009: Position Player Wrapup

So I've looked at the various projections for the 25 man roster as of Opening Day (Yay!), so it's time to see how it all adds up. I'll look at the position players in this post and then the pitching in a second post.

Here are the links to the projections for all the position players in case you missed them or want to look at them again.

Looking Ahead to 2009: Jorge Posada
Looking Ahead to 2009: Mark Teixeira
Looking Ahead to 2009: Robinson Cano
Looking Ahead to 2009: Derek Jeter
Looking Ahead to 2009: Alex Rodriguez
Looking Ahead to 2009: Johnny Damon
Looking Ahead to 2009: Brett Gardner
Looking Ahead to 2009: Jason Varitek
Looking Ahead to 2009: Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher
Looking Ahead to 2009: Molino, Melky and Ransom (and Berroa I guess)
Looking Ahead to 2009: Hideki Matsui

Offense
The first thing we try to figure out is the depth chart. While it's nice to imagine that everyone will be healthy and the starters will all rack up 650 PA, it's also not realistic. This is my stab at the 2009 depth chart,

Player	Pos	PA
Johnny Damon	LF	550
Derek Jeter	SS	600
Mark Teixeira	1B	650
Alex Rodriguez	3B	500
Hideki Matsui	DH	400
Xavier Nady	RF	550
Jorge Posada	C	400
Robinson Cano	2B	600
Brett Gardner	CF	400
Starter Total		4650
Nick Swisher	OF	550
Melky Cabrera	OF	350
Cody Ransom	IF	250
Jose Molina	C	250
Ramiro Pena	IF	150
Angel Berroa	IF	100
Bench Total		1650
Team Total		6300

Last year, the Yankees got 4896 PAs from the primary players at each position and 1361 PAs from the bench, so I'm using a similar split. Everything is built around the assumption that the Yankees will make around 4100 outs at bat, which is the average of the typical team over the last few seasons. So the PAs will vary a little for each projection system depending on the OBPs they have projected.

I've assigned lower PAs to the bigger injury risks on the team, mainly Matsui and Posada. Also, although Brett Gardner is penciled in as the starting CF, I'm limiting him to 400 PAs on the assumption that if he's hitting like he's projected to, he's not going to see 650 PAs.

	cairo				chone				hbt				marcel
Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Johnny Damon	.282	.354	.433	75	.276	.351	.417	72	.273	.351	.412	72	.276	.350	.428	74
Derek Jeter	.303	.370	.427	82	.294	.366	.415	79	.298	.365	.400	77	.303	.367	.428	82
Mark Teixeira	.291	.387	.528	110	.286	.381	.521	108	.287	.383	.513	106	.292	.387	.522	109
Alex Rodriguez	.296	.398	.553	90	.294	.397	.564	92	.292	.392	.552	90	.289	.386	.545	88
Hideki Matsui	.283	.361	.454	56	.277	.360	.443	55	.279	.364	.441	55	.277	.356	.443	55
Xavier Nady	.283	.339	.474	77	.273	.327	.456	73	.278	.334	.462	75	.283	.340	.467	76
Jorge Posada	.289	.386	.465	61	.266	.363	.434	55	.279	.373	.444	57	.285	.374	.466	60
Robinson Cano	.296	.332	.464	80	.300	.340	.468	83	.296	.339	.453	80	.295	.336	.455	80
Brett Gardner	.254	.338	.334	42	.258	.341	.345	45	.251	.338	.349	46	.257	.319	.386	46
Starter Total	.287	.363	.459	674	.282	.360	.454	662	.282	.360	.449	658	.286	.359	.464	670
Nick Swisher	.240	.353	.442	75	.247	.360	.454	78	.247	.359	.447	77	.245	.355	.434	74
Melky Cabrera	.268	.325	.382	39	.280	.345	.402	43	.270	.331	.376	39	.271	.330	.383	40
Cody Ransom	.234	.306	.423	29	.218	.294	.390	26	.236	.309	.434	31	.265	.348	.450	34
Jose Molina	.228	.263	.335	20	.222	.266	.326	19	.233	.281	.333	21	.237	.276	.344	22
Ramiro Pena	.232	.282	.290	11	.233	.284	.297	11	.224	.276	.291	10	.224	.272	.320	12
Angel Berroa	.249	.290	.359	9	.249	.298	.362	10	.245	.293	.357	9	.237	.286	.340	9
Bench Total	.243	.316	.391	182	.245	.322	.394	188	.246	.322	.393	188	.250	.325	.396	190
Team Total	.275	.351	.441	857	.272	.350	.438	850	.273	.350	.434	846	.277	.350	.446	860

	pecota				zips				average
Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Johnny Damon	.280	.354	.423	74	.291	.363	.438	79	.280	.354	.425	74
Derek Jeter	.288	.353	.383	71	.302	.371	.421	84	.298	.365	.412	79
Mark Teixeira	.287	.379	.506	104	.292	.392	.517	116	.289	.385	.518	109
Alex Rodriguez	.282	.373	.508	81	.292	.395	.549	95	.291	.390	.545	89
Hideki Matsui	.275	.352	.417	51	.290	.371	.476	63	.280	.361	.446	56
Xavier Nady	.270	.323	.444	70	.283	.342	.483	81	.279	.334	.464	75
Jorge Posada	.249	.336	.406	49	.286	.383	.455	61	.276	.369	.445	57
Robinson Cano	.284	.323	.419	71	.296	.335	.474	85	.295	.334	.455	80
Brett Gardner	.253	.339	.351	45	.249	.331	.321	42	.253	.334	.348	44
Starter Total	.277	.348	.433	616	.288	.365	.462	704	.284	.359	.453	664
Nick Swisher	.244	.353	.460	77	.254	.366	.471	82	.246	.358	.451	77
Melky Cabrera	.267	.326	.376	38	.265	.324	.383	40	.270	.330	.384	40
Cody Ransom	.216	.293	.386	26	.236	.304	.415	28	.234	.309	.416	29
Jose Molina	.229	.271	.325	19	.242	.276	.340	22	.232	.272	.334	21
Ramiro Pena	.223	.288	.286	11	.224	.269	.263	10	.227	.279	.291	11
Angel Berroa	.240	.288	.343	9	.258	.302	.367	10	.246	.293	.355	9
Bench Total	.240	.316	.388	180	.249	.321	.399	191	.246	.321	.393	187
Team Total	.267	.340	.421	796	.278	.354	.445	895	.274	.349	.438	851

BR are raw batting runs using linear weights, and include stolen bases.

Pecota projects the lowest offensive output at 796 runs, while ZiPS is the most optimistic at 895. The rest of the systems are clustered in the 850-860 range. The overall average puts the team batting line at .274/.349/.438 and 851 runs scored. So that's an expected gain of 73 runs on offense compared to last season.

Defense
This is usually the worst part of doing season previews because the Yankee defense usually stinks. This year, that's not really the case though.

Player	Pos	Inn	ZR RS/150	UZR RS/150	Avg RS/150	prjRS
Jorge Posada	C	800	-5	-5	-5	-5
Jose Molina	C	640	3	3	3	3
Mark Teixeira	1B	1300	7	2	4	4
Nick Swisher	1B	140	-5	-2	-4	0
Robinson Cano	2B	1300	3	-2	0	0
Cody Ransom	2B	100	-2	0	-1	0
Angel Berroa	2B	40	3	0	1	0
Alex Rodriguez3B	3B	1000	-4	-1	-3	-2
Cody Ransom3B	3B	400	4	0	2	1
Angel Berroa3B	3B	40	0	0	0	0
Derek JeterSS	SS	1300	-7	-6	-7	-6
Cody RansomSS	SS	100	-9	-5	-7	-1
Angel BerroaSS	SS	40	-1	-2	-1	0
Johnny DamonLF	LF	1100	-4	13	5	4
Nick SwisherLF	LF	340	4	6	5	1
Brett GardnerCF	CF	800	14	18	16	9
Melky CabreraCF	CF	400	7	-7	0	0
Nick SwisherCF	CF	240	-3	-5	-4	-1
Xavier NadyRF	RF	1100	-1	-2	-1	-1
Nick SwisherRF	RF	340	3	6	5	1
Total			8	10	9	8

Inn: Innings at position
ZR RS/150: Projected runs saved compared to average per 150 games using zone rating
UZR RS/150: Projected runs saved compared to average per 150 games using Fan Graphs' UZR (ultimate zone rating)
Avg RS/150: Average of ZR and UZR RS/150
prjRS: Projected runs saved compared to average pro-rated to projected innings at position

Take a team that was close to 40 runs below average and remove Bobby Abreu (-23), Wilson Betemit (-4), Jason Giambi (-4), Morgan Ensberg (-3) and Richie Sexson (-2). Then import two projected plus defenders in Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher. It's not as dramatic as the improvement the Rays made between 2007 and 2008, but it's a nice upgrade. The Brett Gardner sample size caveat applies here as well, but even if we assume he's average, the Yankees look to be right around average overall.

Here's how the positions break down using the assumed innings for the individual players.

Pos	RS
C	-2
1B	4
2B	0
3B	-1
SS	-7
LF	5
CF	8
RF	0
Total	8

Conclusion
The average hitter produces around 80 runs for every 650 PAs in linear weighs, so an average team would score around 775 runs over 6300 PAs. So the Yankee offense looks like it will be around 70-80 runs above average. The defense might be 10 runs above average, or just average if Gardner's not as good as he seemed to be last year, so I'll split the difference and say the Yankees project around +5 defensively. That's a total of 75-85 runs above average on the position player side, the difference between an 81 team and a 90 win team.

So then the question becomes, how much above average will the pitching staff be? We'll take a look at that in the next post.

--Posted at 1:27 am by SG / 30 Comments | - (253)

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Mariano Rivera

Mo deserves his own post, and here it is.

2008

mariano rivera	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	72	69	28	26	5	17	64	3.25	3.03	10	17
2008 marcel projection	68	65	27	25	5	17	58	3.31	3.20	9	16
2008 pecota projection	61	54	20	18	4	15	51	2.69	3.05	12	18
2008 zips projection	75	65	22	20	3	14	66	2.40	2.52	18	25
2008 cairo projection	78	69	26	24	4	15	65	2.77	2.78	15	23
2008 average projection	71	64	25	23	4	16	61	2.88	2.92	13	20
2008 actual totals	71	41	11	11	4	6	77	1.40	2.01	24	31
difference	0				105%	261%	127%	-1.48	-0.90	12	12

Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)

I"m not sure where to start with one of the greatest relief seasons of all time. After having his worst season as a full-time reliever in 2007, it appeared that Mariano Rivera was entering his decline phase. However, a deeper look at his 2007 showed that he actually had better peripherals than projected with the exception of hits allowed. That augured well for his 2008 projection, although Mo's uniqueness makes projecting him hard. It's really hard to be as good as Mo has been in just about every season of his career.

Rivera blew away his projections. Although he pitched exactly as many innings as his average projection expected, the difference in his other numbers was amazing. He allowed 23 fewer hits than projected. He allowed 14 fewer runs than projected. He walked 10 fewer men than projected. He struck out 16 more men than projected.

There have been 12 seasons in MLB history where a pitcher who pitched at least 60 innings had a WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched) of less than 0.8. Here's the full list. Rivera's 2008 comes in as the second lowest WHIP in any such season (behind Dennis Eckersley's 1990 season).

Opposing hitters hit .165/.190/.233 against him over 259 PA. To put that in perspective, a player with that line would have been 50 runs below an average hitter by linear weights over 650 PA, or 30 runs below replacement level. To put it in even more perspective, Ramiro Pena's average projection of .228/.278/.285 would be 15 runs more valuable over 650 PAs. As it was, Rivera faced 259 batters, and their BRAR according to linear weights would have been around 24 below replacement. Rivera's actual value was higher than that because the normal linear weights for most batting events are lower with Mo on the mound (ie, a single is typically worth .47 runs, against Mo it's worth less than that).

Oh, and he did all this while pitching with calcification on top of his AC joint that was causing him pain in his right shoulder.

Most impressively, he even got his Baseball Reference page sponsored by us.

Anyway, Mo is awesome. How awesome will he be in 2009? Let's see what the nerds think.

2009

mariano rivera	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	63	56	22	20	4	11	60	2.86	2.64	12	18
2009 marcel projection	67	59	24	23	5	15	59	3.09	3.08	11	17
2009 pecota projection	66	56	20	18	4	12	64	2.42	2.54	15	22
2009 tht projection	71	59	21	20	4	13	68	2.52	2.57	16	23
2009 zips projection	67	56	18	17	3	9	65	2.28	2.24	17	23
2009 cairo projection	73	58	21	19	4	13	67	2.38	2.61	17	25
2009 average projection	68	57	21	20	4	12	64	2.59	2.61	14	21
mariano rivera cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	81	56	18	17	2	10	83	1.84	1.88	24	32
65%	77	57	19	18	3	11	75	2.11	2.25	20	28
Baseline	73	58	21	19	4	13	67	2.38	2.61	17	25
35%	66	56	21	19	5	13	57	2.65	2.98	14	20
20%	59	53	20	19	5	13	47	2.92	3.34	10	16

Even though Rivera has had an ERA under 2.00 in eight of his 14 season, projection systems just aren't designed to go that low. That's still a fine set of projections though.

Value

Value	Runs	Wins
Total	38	3.8
2009 Salary	$15,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$11,430,222	($3,569,778)
$3,500,000	$13,335,259	($1,664,741)
$4,000,000	$15,240,296	$240,296
$4,500,000	$17,145,333	$2,145,333
$5,000,000	$19,050,370	$4,050,370
$5,500,000	$20,955,407	$5,955,407
$6,000,000	$22,860,444	$7,860,444

I haven't accounted for leverage in Rivera's line yet. I didn't account for it in the other reliever projections either since the rest of the pen is for the most part cost-controlled and their leverage will depend on how they are utilized. With Rivera, we know how he'll be used, so looking at his average LI the last four seasons, he's generally in the 1.8 area. That boosts his RSAR from 21 to 38 and basically justifies his salary.

It's amusing to me how some people whined and bitched about Mo's contract being ridiculous last year, especially now in hindsight after the season he just had. It's also probably worth noting that his contract didn't prevent them from snagging Sabathia, Teixeira or Burnett this past offseason.

Conclusion
I think I say it every year, but Mo is my favorite Yankee ever. I was a bit worried that he was going to start declining after his 2007, but insted he just showed me how unique and special he really is. It's tough to imagine him being as good as he was in 2008, but it's also not tough to imagine him being as good as he normally has been, even at age 39.

I was hoping to get the team wrapup done today but I won't be able to. Should be up by tomorrow morning.

--Posted at 8:42 am by SG / 27 Comments | - (246)

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Brian Bruney, Jose Veras and Damaso Marte

And here are the rest of the mortal members of the Opening Day pen.

2008

brian bruney	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	50	50	28	26	6	27	43	4.68	4.66	-1	4
2008 marcel projection	52	50	28	26	5	28	44	4.50	4.37	0	5
2008 pecota projection	30	27	16	15	4	19	27	4.60	4.86	0	3
2008 zips projection	61	62	39	36	8	37	48	5.31	5.15	-6	1
2008 cairo projection	42	40	25	24	5	27	34	5.14	5.06	-3	1
2008 average projection	47	46	27	25	6	28	39	4.85	4.82	-2	3
2008 actual totals	34	18	7	7	2	16	33	1.84	3.43	10	14
difference	-13				202%	127%	115%	-3.01	-1.39	12	11

Brian Bruney was very good in 2008, although he missed a large part of the season with a LisFranc injury. While his 1.84 ERA likely overstates how effective he was, his FIP of 3.43 ws still very good. On a rate basis, Bruney gave up fewer HRs, walked fewer batters, and struck out more batters than projected. Doesn't get much better than that.

damaso marte	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	47	42	20	19	4	21	49	3.64	3.56	5	9
2008 marcel projection	53	50	25	22	5	24	50	3.74	3.90	5	10
2008 pecota projection	43	39	19	18	4	22	45	3.69	3.87	4	8
2008 zips projection	52	46	23	21	4	27	57	3.63	3.57	5	10
2008 cairo projection	55	44	25	22	4	26	64	3.60	3.24	6	11
2008 average projection	50	44	22	20	4	24	53	3.66	3.63	5	10
2008 actual totals	65	52	29	29	5	26	71	4.02	3.22	4	10
difference	15				110%	120%	103%	0.36	-0.41	-1	0

After years of trying to get him back after trading him away for Enrique Wilson, Brian Cashman finally got Damaso Marte back. Marte's Yankee debut was awesome.

Unfortunately the rest of his Yankee tenure wasn't so hot, although it appears it was at least partially due to injury. If you look at ERA, Marte did not hit his projections, but a quick glance at his peripherals and FIP show that he actually pitched better than projected overall.

jose veras	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	44	45	24	22	5	20	37	4.50	4.36	0	4
2008 marcel projection	31	30	17	16	3	12	22	4.65	4.20	0	3
2008 pecota projection	47	48	27	25	5	24	39	4.66	4.41	-1	4
2008 zips projection	61	67	38	35	9	25	41	5.16	5.00	-5	2
2008 cairo projection	33	36	17	17	4	13	26	4.64	4.38	-1	3
2008 average projection	43	45	24	23	5	19	33	4.72	4.47	-1	3
2008 actual totals	58	52	23	23	7	29	63	3.59	4.10	6	12
difference	14				96%	85%	143%	-1.13	-0.37	7	8

Jose Veras had a strong season in 2008, although he faded towards the end. Over his first 46 games, he pitched 46 innings with a 2.70 ERA (3.83 FIP). Over his last 14 games, he had a 7.36 ERA (6.74 FIP). While I thought Joe Girardi did well with the pitching staff and especially the bullpen last year, one thing that I didn't like was he seemed to overuse Veras. I don't know if that's what led to his ineffectiveness at the end of the season or not, but it's something I'll be watching this year. Overall though, it's safe to say that Veras outpitched his projections pretty handily.

Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)

2009

brian bruney	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	46	43	23	21	4	26	43	4.11	4.16	2	7
2009 marcel projection	48	41	21	19	4	23	39	3.56	4.10	5	10
2009 pecota projection	44	41	24	22	5	27	39	4.47	4.69	0	5
2009 tht projection	50	41	23	21	5	26	46	3.80	4.22	4	9
2009 zips projection	45	40	25	23	5	31	41	4.63	4.90	-1	4
2009 cairo projection	50	45	29	27	6	30	42	4.95	4.84	-2	2
2009 average projection	47	42	24	22	5	27	42	4.25	4.48	1	6
brian bruney cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	55	43	26	24	4	27	53	4.00	3.62	3	8
65%	52	44	27	26	5	29	47	4.48	4.23	0	5
Baseline	50	45	29	27	6	30	42	4.95	4.84	-2	2
35%	45	44	28	27	6	29	35	5.42	5.45	-5	0
20%	40	42	27	26	7	28	28	5.90	6.06	-6	-2

Bruney's walk rate is still not very good, and that leads to the less than impressive projections you see above. I think Bruney will outpitch those, but it's a hunch, not based on anything empirical.

damaso marte	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	50	47	23	21	4	22	48	3.78	3.64	4	9
2009 marcel projection	62	56	29	27	5	25	57	3.92	3.62	4	10
2009 pecota projection	56	50	26	24	6	25	55	3.76	3.84	5	10
2009 tht projection	65	56	29	27	6	28	64	3.73	3.72	6	12
2009 zips projection	55	45	24	22	5	27	62	3.58	3.60	6	11
2009 cairo projection	58	51	29	27	5	27	57	4.09	3.77	3	8
2009 average projection	58	51	27	24	5	26	57	3.81	3.70	4	10
damaso marte cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	64	49	26	24	3	24	71	3.30	2.75	9	15
65%	61	50	28	25	4	25	64	3.70	3.26	5	12
Baseline	58	51	29	27	5	27	57	4.09	3.77	3	8
35%	53	49	29	26	6	26	48	4.49	4.29	0	5
20%	47	47	28	25	6	25	39	4.89	4.80	-2	3

Marte generally projects well too. He's probably the favorite to be the setup man right now, and while that may be a little scary, remember that this team ran Kyle Farnsworth out there as a setup man for 2.5 years. Marte's got good stuff, and while he's tougher on lefties, he's no slouch against righties either.

jose veras	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	60	56	29	27	6	26	60	4.05	3.80	3	9
2009 marcel projection	55	52	26	25	6	24	47	4.09	4.22	3	8
2009 pecota projection	60	54	27	25	6	25	58	3.70	3.75	5	11
2009 tht projection	66	58	30	28	6	29	66	3.85	3.70	5	11
2009 zips projection	54	52	28	26	7	26	53	4.31	4.36	1	7
2009 cairo projection	59	61	31	30	7	25	50	4.53	4.34	0	6
2009 average projection	59	56	29	27	6	26	56	4.09	4.03	3	9
jose veras cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	65	59	28	27	5	22	63	3.70	3.26	6	12
65%	62	60	29	28	6	24	56	4.11	3.80	3	9
Baseline	59	61	31	30	7	25	50	4.53	4.34	0	6
35%	53	58	30	29	8	25	42	4.95	4.88	-3	3
20%	47	55	29	28	8	24	34	5.36	5.42	-5	0

Veras's projections expect him to pitch about as well as he pitched last year for the most part, with his ERA falling more into line with his peripherals. While I am still not enamored with his command, his fastball and his slider are both nasty pitches.

Value

damaso marte: Value	Runs	Wins
Total	10	1.0
2009 Salary	$3,750,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$3,066,469	($683,531)
$3,500,000	$3,577,547	($172,453)
$4,000,000	$4,088,625	$338,625
$4,500,000	$4,599,703	$849,703
$5,000,000	$5,110,781	$1,360,781
$5,500,000	$5,621,860	$1,871,860
$6,000,000	$6,132,938	$2,382,938

brian bruney: Value	Runs	Wins
Total	6	0.6
2009 Salary	$1,250,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$1,798,419	$548,419
$3,500,000	$2,098,155	$848,155
$4,000,000	$2,397,892	$1,147,892
$4,500,000	$2,697,628	$1,447,628
$5,000,000	$2,997,364	$1,747,364
$5,500,000	$3,297,101	$2,047,101
$6,000,000	$3,596,837	$2,346,837

jose veras: Value	Runs	Wins
Total	9	0.9
2009 Salary	$432,975
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$2,582,102	$2,149,127
$3,500,000	$3,012,453	$2,579,478
$4,000,000	$3,442,803	$3,009,828
$4,500,000	$3,873,154	$3,440,179
$5,000,000	$4,303,504	$3,870,529
$5,500,000	$4,733,854	$4,300,879
$6,000,000	$5,164,205	$4,731,230

Again we're seeing the benefit of young cost-controlled players here with Bruney and Veras, as the Yankees look to have constructed a solid bullpen without overpaying. Even Marte's salary seems to be in line with his expected value.

Conclusion
In addition to the relievers covered in this post and the prior post, the Yankees have other intriguing arms in the minors, particularly Mark Melancon and David Robertson. I'll try and get a post up later looking at the players who aren't on the 25 man roster who may contribute this year. While the Yankee pen is short on name recognition, it projects well talent-wise. I thought Joe Girardi's best skill last year was managing the bullpen, and I think that will help this season too.

Tomorrow, Mo and then the team wrapup.

--Posted at 2:19 pm by SG / 13 Comments | - (262)

Looking Ahead to 2009: Jonathan Albaladejo, Phil Coke and Edwar Ramirez

Here’s a quick look at three of the Opening Day bullpen members, Jonathan Albaladejo, Phil Coke and Edwar Ramirez.

2008

Jonathan Albaladejo	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	59	64	33	31	7	23	45	4.73	4.39	-2	4
2008 marcel projection	32	30	15	14	3	11	25	3.94	3.89	2	5
2008 pecota projection	58	59	31	28	7	23	40	4.36	4.57	1	7
2008 zips projection	75	79	46	42	15	25	56	5.04	5.31	-5	3
2008 cairo projection	29	27	14	14	4	9	21	4.34	4.48	0	3
2008 average projection	51	51	27	25	7	18	37	4.48	4.52	0	5
2008 actual totals	14	15	6	6	1	6	13	3.94	3.56	1	2
difference	-37				184%	81%	128%	-0.54	-0.96	1	-3

Albaladejo came to the Yankees in a trade for Tyler Clippard. He had pretty good scouting reports but he came with concerns about his conditioning and health. His projections were pretty decent, expecting him to pitch around 51 innings of average relief. Albaladejo actually ended up pitching better than that on a rate basis, but an injury cost him the bulk of the season.

phil coke	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	92	116	70	65	14	52	53	6.36	5.72	-19.0	-9.8
2008 cairo projection	105	121	61	61	11	45	57	5.23	4.76	-9	2
2008 actual totals	149	148	69	65	12	65	121	3.93	3.93	9.4	24.2

It's a testament to Phil Coke's meteoric rise in 2008 that no system felt he was worth projecting except CHONE and CAIRO. Neither one expected much from Coke, who had not risen above A ball yet and was entering his age 25 season. His 2007 was actually pretty good (3.09 ERA in 16 starts, 76 K, 37 BB and 4 HRs in 99 IP, but it came at age 24 in high A.

Something clicked for Coke in 2008. In the words of Mark Newman:
Phil Coke was a "fringy prospect" until this season, says Mark Newman, the Yankees vice president of baseball operations. But Coke was the first name Newman uttered in a recent conversation about Yankee minor-leaguers who made significant strides this season. "Now we think he's a very good prospect," Newman said. "He's got his velocity to 94 (mph) and his slider has more depth and a late break."

Coke blew away his projections, putting up a very solid MLE.

edwar ramirez	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	53	46	23	21	5	23	64	3.57	3.31	6	11
2008 marcel projection	35	37	21	20	5	15	31	5.14	4.57	-3	1
2008 pecota projection	61	48	26	24	7	31	76	3.61	3.65	6	12
2008 zips projection	64	64	37	34	11	27	65	4.78	4.67	-2	4
2008 cairo projection	33	29	14	13	4	13	37	3.55	3.72	4	7
2008 average projection	49	45	24	23	6	22	54	4.13	3.98	2	7
2008 actual totals	55	44	25	24	7	24	63	3.91	3.87	4	9
difference	6				101%	101%	104%	-0.22	-0.11	2	2

Edwar Ramirez's minor league numbers are eye-popping. He's struck out 376 batters in 277 minor league innings. However, the fact that he had done it with a very good changeup instead of a 95 mph fastball was a cause for reasonable doubt about how effective he'd actually be in the majors. He struggled in his brief major league stint in 2007, although that may have been at least partially due to not being used appropriately by the former manager, I forget his name right now.

Projection systems generally don't care about how a player accrues his stats, they just take them and convert them to a projection. So in Edwar's case, he projected pretty well all around, a bit above average. Ramirez had a few bad outings, but was generally good. He gave up 11 of the 24 earned runs he allowed all season over 3 games and 1.2 innings against his former team, the Angels. Against everyone else, he pitched 53.2 innings, allowing 35 hits, 5 HR, 21 BB and racking up 60 Ks with a 1.51 ERA. So yeah, don't let him face LA of A.

Anyhow, score one for the stat geeks, as they basically nailed Edwar's projections in 2008.

Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)

2009

Jonathan Albaladejo	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	36	39	21	19	5	14	27	4.75	4.67	-1	3
2009 marcel projection	33	32	16	15	3	12	26	4.09	3.90	2	5
2009 pecota projection	51	55	28	26	6	20	37	4.58	4.49	0	5
2009 tht projection	42	39	20	19	5	17	32	4.03	4.44	2	6
2009 zips projection	41	44	24	22	6	16	29	4.87	4.87	-2	2
2009 cairo projection	45	52	28	27	7	12	31	5.29	4.67	-4	1
2009 average projection	41	43	23	21	5	15	30	4.60	4.51	0	4
Jonathan Albaladejo cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	50	49	25	24	5	10	40	4.27	3.44	1	6
65%	48	51	26	25	6	11	35	4.78	4.05	-1	3
Baseline	45	52	28	27	7	12	31	5.29	4.67	-4	1
35%	41	50	27	26	7	13	25	5.81	5.29	-6	-2
20%	36	48	26	25	8	13	20	6.32	5.91	-7	-4

One thing I am not happy about with CAIRO is how it projects middle relievers. I need to take a look at why it does it, but it seems to be pretty consistently high. Ignoring CAIRO, Albaladejo projects to be around average by most other systems.

phil coke	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	55	55	28	26	6	22	51	4.25	3.96	2	7
2009 marcel projection	32	30	15	14	3	11	25	3.94	3.89	2	5
2009 pecota projection	86	96	52	48	10	35	62	4.99	4.43	-5	4
2009 tht projection	123	139	80	74	18	60	76	5.44	5.33	-13	-1
2009 zips projection	121	134	71	66	14	50	74	4.91	4.72	-5	7
2009 cairo projection	125	162	86	81	16	26	74	5.82	4.33	-18	-6
2009 average projection	90	99	53	49	11	34	64	4.89	4.44	-4	5
prStarter->Reliever	75	71	35	32	8	30	61	3.84	4.16	5.5	13.0
phil coke starter cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	138	164	84	79	13	23	90	5.17	3.65	-10	4
65%	131	164	85	80	15	24	82	5.49	3.99	-14	-1
Baseline	125	162	86	81	16	26	74	5.82	4.33	-18	-6
35%	113	152	81	77	16	26	62	6.14	4.67	-21	-9
20%	100	140	76	72	16	25	52	6.46	5.01	-22	-12
phil coke relief cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	83	69	32	29	6	27	76	3.16	3.24	12	21
65%	79	70	34	31	7	29	68	3.50	3.70	9	17
Baseline	75	71	35	32	8	30	61	3.84	4.16	6	13
35%	71	71	36	33	9	31	54	4.18	4.62	3	10
20%	68	71	37	34	10	32	48	4.52	5.08	0	7

Because his 2008 was so out of character, Coke's projections for 2009 aren't very good. However, there's another factor here. Coke's projections assume he is a starter, but it looks like his role will be in the bullpen. So I applied my starter->reliever conversion to his average projection to get a revised projection as a reliever. That looks a little better.

edwar ramirez	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	64	54	26	24	6	26	75	3.38	3.29	8	14
2009 marcel projection	55	52	29	27	7	23	52	4.42	4.22	1	6
2009 pecota projection	58	49	25	23	6	25	62	3.51	3.69	6	12
2009 tht projection	61	53	29	27	7	27	71	3.92	3.69	4	10
2009 zips projection	56	48	26	24	6	25	66	3.86	3.58	4	10
2009 cairo projection	55	46	24	23	6	22	58	3.72	3.77	5	10
2009 average projection	58	50	26	25	6	25	64	3.80	3.71	5	10
edwar ramirez cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	61	43	21	20	4	19	72	2.94	2.65	11	17
65%	58	45	22	21	5	21	65	3.33	3.21	8	13
Baseline	55	46	24	23	6	22	58	3.72	3.77	5	10
35%	50	44	24	23	7	22	49	4.11	4.33	2	7
20%	44	42	23	22	7	22	40	4.50	4.89	0	4

The projections are generally in agreement that Edwar should have a strong year in 2009.

Value

Jonathan Albaladejo: Value	Runs	Wins
Total	4	0.4
2009 Salary	$403,075
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$1,098,861	$695,786
$3,500,000	$1,282,004	$878,929
$4,000,000	$1,465,147	$1,062,072
$4,500,000	$1,648,291	$1,245,216
$5,000,000	$1,831,434	$1,428,359
$5,500,000	$2,014,578	$1,611,503
$6,000,000	$2,197,721	$1,794,646

phil coke: Value	Runs	Wins
Total	13	1.3
2009 Salary	$403,300
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$3,900,000	$3,496,700
$3,500,000	$4,550,000	$4,146,700
$4,000,000	$5,200,000	$4,796,700
$4,500,000	$5,850,000	$5,446,700
$5,000,000	$6,500,000	$6,096,700
$5,500,000	$7,150,000	$6,746,700
$6,000,000	$7,800,000	$7,396,700

edwar ramirez: Value	Runs	Wins
Total	10	1.0
2009 Salary	$422,450
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$3,104,140	$2,681,690
$3,500,000	$3,621,497	$3,199,047
$4,000,000	$4,138,854	$3,716,404
$4,500,000	$4,656,211	$4,233,761
$5,000,000	$5,173,567	$4,751,117
$5,500,000	$5,690,924	$5,268,474
$6,000,000	$6,208,281	$5,785,831

They're all cheap and cost-controlled, and they all project better than replacement level. It's kind of nice for the Yankees to have some flexibility in the pen. They can swap guys with options around when the pen is overworked and essentially not lose much.

Conclusion
A lot of "analysts" are claiming the Yankee bullpen is a concern. That's because they're lazy and don't bother to look at the people who are in it. It's easier to bleat about how the Yankees are making a huge mistake taking Jobber out of the pen than do a modicum of research and see that he's not really needed there. While it's certainly possible that some of the relievers will disappoint and not hit their projections, it's also unlikely that they all do. Any one of these three guys would be a credible setup man if they hit their projections, and they're arguably worse then the next three relievers I'll look at (Marte, Bruney and Veras).

--Posted at 1:17 pm by SG / 3 Comments | - (259)

Looking Ahead to 2009: Hughes, Aceves and IPK

The odds of each of the Yankees’ starting five making the post for all their games this season are slim, so here’s a look at the guys backing them up, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and Ian Kennedy.

2008

phil hughes	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	104	103	53	49	12	41	90	4.24	4.15	3	13
2008 marcel projection	96	90	50	46	10	35	77	4.31	4.04	2	12
2008 pecota projection	152	146	82	75	16	65	129	4.42	4.17	1	17
2008 zips projection	141	136	63	58	13	40	106	3.70	3.75	13	27
2008 cairo projection	78	71	35	33	7	25	61	3.81	3.76	6	14
2008 average projection	114	109	56	52	12	41	93	4.10	3.98	5	17
2008 actual totals	70	80	40	38	5	26	60	4.86	3.53	-3	4
difference	-44				143%	97%	105%	0.77	-0.45	-8	-12

I've included the MLEs(major league equivalencies) for these players in their 2008 actual totals. After a reasonably successful MLB debut in 2007, big things were expected for Phil Hughes in 2008. He broke camp as one the Yankees' five starters and pitched pretty well in his first start of the year, allowing two earned runs over 6 innings in a 3-2 win over Toronto. Unfortunately, that was the high point of Hughes's season until September as he struggled with his effectiveness and then injury. Hughes's final major league line had him putting up a 6.62 ERA and allowing 4.6 runs more than a replacement level pitcher. The good news is his FIP was a respectable 4.32.

ian kennedy	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	92	92	50	46	11	44	82	4.50	4.41	0	9
2008 marcel projection	69	66	34	30	7	26	53	3.91	4.11	5	11
2008 pecota projection	141	129	72	66	16	68	120	4.24	4.42	4	18
2008 zips projection	148	158	79	72	16	42	94	4.38	4.19	2	17
2008 cairo projection	46	47	24	23	6	17	34	4.50	4.53	0	5
2008 average projection	99	98	52	47	11	40	77	4.31	4.33	2	12
2008 actual totals	111	106	65	62	9	48	90	5.03	3.93	-6	5
difference	12				141%	92%	104%	0.72	-0.40	-9	-7

Although not as highly regarded as Hughes as a prospect, Kennedy had high expectations borne out of his successful professional debut in 2007. Kennedy was awful in the majors, putting up an ERA of 8.16(albeit with a 5.44 FIP) and allowing 12 runs more than a replacement level pitcher over 39.2 innings.

alfredo aceves	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 actual totals	164	165	76	72	16	73	123	3.95	4.30	10	26

Alfredo Aceves came out of nowhere in 2008, as proven by the fact that no projection system forecast him. He's not young, but put up a solid year across three levels of the minors before debuting effectively in the majors.

Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)

2009

phil hughes	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	82	84	42	39	9	31	68	4.28	4.10	2	10
2009 marcel projection	84	83	46	43	9	32	65	4.61	4.19	-1	7
2009 pecota projection	85	88	49	45	9	34	67	4.74	4.27	-2	6
2009 tht projection	107	105	55	51	12	41	82	4.28	4.27	3	13
2009 zips projection	59	61	30	28	4	23	42	4.27	3.83	2	7
2009 cairo projection	106	110	57	54	10	35	81	4.53	3.94	0	10
2009 average projection	87	89	46	43	9	33	67	4.45	4.10	0	9
phil hughes cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	117	109	54	51	8	32	99	3.91	3.21	8	19
65%	112	110	56	52	9	34	89	4.22	3.58	3	15
Baseline	106	110	57	54	10	35	81	4.53	3.94	0	10
35%	96	103	55	51	11	34	69	4.84	4.31	-4	6
20%	85	96	52	49	11	33	57	5.15	4.67	-6	2

Hughes will begin 2009 in the Scranton/WB rotation waiting for an opportunity to come up to the majors. Hughes is still very young, but this will be an important season for him. The projection systems like him to be right around average as far as his value, but with a better than average FIP which indicates they still believe in his upside. I'd love to see Hughes hit his 80% forecast this season, but right now I'd probably settle for him staying healthy all season.

ian kennedy	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	100	101	53	49	12	43	83	4.41	4.39	1	11
2009 marcel projection	79	81	47	44	8	35	59	5.01	4.35	-5	3
2009 pecota projection	137	138	78	72	16	62	108	4.71	4.52	-3	11
2009 tht projection	128	123	71	66	17	57	101	4.63	4.68	-2	11
2009 zips projection	128	131	70	65	13	57	94	4.57	4.39	-1	12
2009 cairo projection	140	149	83	75	18	46	95	4.84	4.48	-5	9
2009 average projection	119	121	67	62	14	50	90	4.70	4.47	-3	9
ian kennedy cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	154	151	82	73	15	44	115	4.28	3.80	4	19
65%	147	151	83	75	16	45	105	4.56	4.14	-1	14
Baseline	140	149	83	75	18	46	95	4.84	4.48	-5	9
35%	126	140	79	72	18	45	81	5.12	4.82	-9	4
20%	112	129	74	67	18	43	68	5.40	5.15	-11	0

Let's trade ____ and Kennedy for someone awesome! If I have to read that crap any more this season I'm going to throw my computer out the window. The people who want to dump Kennedy while still thinking other teams will give up something of value for him are delusional. Here's what we know about Kennedy. He was drafted with the knowledge that he didn't have a super-high ceiling. He's been dominant in the minors as far as his ERA, but his translated BB rate is a concern for me (97 BB in 213.2 minor league innings when translated to MLEs over 2007-2008, roughly 4.1 per 9). Until he can get his control in line, he will struggle at the major league level. There have been plenty of pitchers with similar or less stuff that have been successful in the majors.

alfredo aceves	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	100	112	59	55	15	34	65	4.95	4.87	-5	5
2009 marcel projection	63	61	29	27	7	23	44	3.86	4.34	5	11
2009 pecota projection	106	119	64	59	15	36	65	5.03	4.84	-6	4
2009 zips projection	147	172	92	85	25	40	77	5.19	5.18	-11	3
2009 cairo projection	170	175	98	91	24	24	91	4.83	4.37	-6	11
2009 average projection	117	127	67	62	17	34	71	4.77	4.72	-4	8
alfredo aceves cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	187	178	97	90	21	21	110	4.32	3.80	4	22
65%	178	177	98	91	22	23	100	4.58	4.09	-2	16
Baseline	170	175	98	91	24	24	91	4.83	4.37	-6	11
35%	153	164	93	86	24	24	77	5.08	4.66	-10	5
20%	136	151	86	81	23	23	65	5.33	4.95	-13	1

Aceves doesn't appear to have a ton of upside, but he looks like he should slot in a little below average if he meets his base projections. He doesn't have superior stuff, but he's not a soft-tosser either. That's not bad for your ostensible 7/8 starter.

Value
I didn't bother with the value charts here because a) we have no idea how often any of these guys will pitch and b) they're all still under team control and not arbitration-eligible yet.

Conclusion
With the very realistic odds of A.J. Burnett missing time as well as the innings limit that will be imposed on Joba Chamberlain, as well as the high probability that some of the other pitchers on the staff will miss time, there's a very good chances that the Yankees will be relying on this trio of pitchers at some point in 2009. On paper, that doesn't seem like a bad thing, but then again, it didn't seem like a bad thing entering 2008 to have Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation. Hughes had a strong spring, thinking in terms of how he looked rather than putting any weight on his stats, and that bodes well for 2009 I think. He should be first in line when reinforcements are needed. Aceves and Kennedy essentially project equivalently, so the Yankees will likely go to whichever one is pitching better at the time if the need arises.

--Posted at 7:48 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (243)

Friday, April 3, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain

Next up, starters 3-5, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain. I’m heading out soon so I’ll do the rest of the potential starters, bullpen and team wrapup tomorrow/Sunday.

2008

Chien-Ming Wang	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	189	217	99	91	14	55	96	4.33	4.02	4	22
2008 marcel projection	181	184	81	77	11	53	92	3.83	3.85	14	32
2008 pecota projection	178	200	97	87	14	59	95	4.37	4.16	3	20
2008 zips projection	200	213	95	87	13	53	87	3.92	3.97	13	33
2008 cairo projection	197	201	87	84	11	54	89	3.84	3.84	15	34
2008 average projection	189	203	92	85	13	55	92	4.06	3.97	9	28
2008 actual totals	95	90	44	43	4	35	54	4.07	3.72	5	14
difference	-94				159%	79%	117%	0.02	-0.25	-5	-14

After winning 38 games for the Yankees over 2006 and 2007, Chien-Ming Wang looked to be settling in at the top of the Yankee rotation heading into 2008. Although non-believers continually pointed to his lower than average K rate, his 2008 projectiosn were generally good, expecting him to be close to three wins above a replacement level pitcher, with an ERA around 4.

Wang was basically matching his projections on a rate basis through June 15th. Then came the nonsensical, farcical, absurd, ludicrous, ridiculous, risible debacle known as interleague play. Forced to run the bases, Wang suffered a LisFranc fracture that cost him the rest of the season. Wang missed about 15 starts. Snacks Pontoon made 15 starts. The difference between them if we look at what Wang would have been projected to do over the rest of the season?

Wang
94 IP, 46 R, 11 RSAR

Snacks
80 IP, 53 R, -5 RSAR

That cost the Yankees somewhere around 1.5 wins.

Andy Pettitte	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	199	227	109	101	20	66	132	4.57	4.17	-1	18
2008 marcel projection	188	205	94	85	18	59	135	4.07	3.95	9	28
2008 pecota projection	176	187	90	83	18	60	117	4.22	4.25	5	23
2008 zips projection	213	228	105	96	20	62	141	4.06	3.97	11	32
2008 cairo projection	213	242	113	102	20	60	153	4.31	3.83	5	26
2008 average projection	198	217	102	93	19	62	135	4.25	4.03	6	25
2008 actual totals	204	233	112	103	19	55	158	4.54	3.67	-1	19
difference	6				105%	115%	113%	0.30	-0.36	-7	-6

Andy Pettitte was basically projected to eat innings at around an average rate, and if you lok at his final line, he basically did. However, the shape of his performance was pretty volatile. Over his first 22 games he put up an ERA of 3.76 (FIP of 3.60) over 139 innings, averaging 6.3 innings a start. Pettitte finished off with a 6.23 ERA over his last 11 games, averaging 5.9 innings per start. It's interesting to note that Pettitte's FIP was 3.83 over this stretch, but he was giving up lots of hits. After the season it was reported that Pettitte was pitching through soreness. Pettitte's overall line was about 6-7 runs worse than projected.

Joba Chamberlain	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	65	61	30	28	7	25	75	3.88	3.45	5	11
2008 marcel projection	37	33	16	14	3	12	34	3.41	3.39	5	8
2008 pecota projection	146	126	60	55	12	55	162	3.39	3.18	18	33
2008 zips projection	134	136	72	66	19	33	121	4.43	3.98	1	14
2008 cairo projection	55	52	26	25	7	18	48	4.09	4.09	3	8
2008 average projection	87	81	40	37	9	29	87	3.84	3.62	6	15
2008 actual totals	100	87	32	29	5	39	118	2.60	2.66	21	31
difference	13				217%	85%	119%	-1.24	-0.95	15	16

Joba Chamberlain started off the season in the role that he was meant for, pitching teh 8. The Yankees foolishly moved him into the rotation in June, where he stunk, putting up an ERA of 2.76, fanning 74 in 65.1 innings. Chamberlain walked off the mound during his August 4 start in Texas with what was eventually diagnosed as tendinitis, effectively ending his time in the rotation. Chamberlain returned to his proper role after about a month, pitching teh eight. And this entire blurb is sarcastic, so please don't think I really believe this.

Anyway, Chamberlain pitched better than projected, with an ERA more than a full run lower. He struck out batters at a higher than projected rate and allowed fewer HRs on a rate basis as well.

Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)

2009

Chien-Ming Wang	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	133	156	71	66	8	42	71	4.47	3.86	1	14
2009 marcel projection	127	126	57	54	8	41	70	3.83	3.89	9	22
2009 pecota projection	126	141	69	62	10	42	67	4.39	4.19	2	14
2009 tht projection	132	142	61	57	9	42	64	3.88	4.07	9	22
2009 zips projection	149	159	70	65	7	47	71	3.92	3.80	10	25
2009 cairo projection	163	170	79	75	10	55	80	4.16	4.04	6	22
2009 average projection	138	149	68	63	9	45	71	4.11	3.98	6	20
Chien-Ming Wang cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	179	172	77	73	8	53	97	3.68	3.54	16	34
65%	171	171	78	75	9	54	88	3.92	3.79	11	28
Baseline	163	170	79	75	10	55	80	4.16	4.04	6	22
35%	147	158	75	72	10	53	68	4.40	4.29	2	16
20%	130	146	70	67	11	50	57	4.64	4.54	-2	11

Wang's 2009 projections are generally the same as his 2008 numbers, although his innings are suppressed due to his missed time last seeason. The projection systems don't know or care that the reason Wang missed time last year was due to a freak injury so they assume his skill in staying healthy has declined. There's little reason to think Wang won't be able to pitch 180-200 innings in 2009. 200 innings at his average projection makes him worth another nine runs or so above replacement.

Andy Pettitte	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	167	185	87	80	15	54	125	4.31	3.84	4	20
2009 marcel projection	183	206	97	89	18	58	132	4.38	3.99	3	21
2009 pecota projection	168	187	90	82	17	53	119	4.41	4.02	2	19
2009 tht projection	187	205	96	89	19	57	130	4.27	4.04	5	23
2009 zips projection	195	219	104	96	19	61	138	4.43	3.99	1	21
2009 cairo projection	210	232	114	104	21	64	150	4.45	3.98	1	22
2009 average projection	185	206	98	90	18	58	132	4.37	3.98	3	21
Andy Pettitte cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	231	239	114	103	18	61	178	4.01	3.47	13	36
65%	221	236	115	104	20	62	164	4.23	3.73	7	29
Baseline	210	232	114	104	21	64	150	4.45	3.98	1	22
35%	189	216	108	98	21	61	129	4.66	4.24	-3	15
20%	168	198	100	91	21	57	110	4.88	4.50	-7	10

Pettitte's projections are expecting him to rebound a bit from last year, although to pitch about 20 fewer innings. Seems fair to me.

Joba Chamberlain	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	101	88	41	38	9	39	112	3.39	3.30	13	23
2009 marcel projection	85	75	32	29	6	31	88	3.07	3.14	14	22
2009 pecota projection	124	107	47	43	8	47	133	3.09	3.05	19	32
2009 tht projection	100	82	38	36	8	39	111	3.20	3.19	14	24
2009 zips projection	131	127	59	55	12	52	129	3.77	3.61	11	24
2009 cairo projection	117	111	49	45	11	40	120	3.45	3.36	14	25
2009 average projection	110	98	44	41	9	41	116	3.33	3.27	14	25
Joba Chamberlain cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	129	111	46	42	8	37	144	2.93	2.65	22	35
65%	123	111	47	44	9	39	132	3.19	3.00	18	30
Baseline	117	111	49	45	11	40	120	3.45	3.36	14	25
35%	106	105	47	43	11	39	103	3.70	3.71	9	20
20%	94	98	45	41	11	37	87	3.96	4.07	6	15

Joba's bullpen time screws with his projected playing time. All the projections expect him to be very good, but over fewer inings than the Yankees are hoping to use him for. Pro-rate his average projection to 150 innings and he'd be worth about one more win more valuable.

Value
Wang

Value	Runs	Wins
Total	20	2.0
2009 Salary	$5,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$5,962,594	$962,594
$3,500,000	$6,956,360	$1,956,360
$4,000,000	$7,950,126	$2,950,126
$4,500,000	$8,943,892	$3,943,892
$5,000,000	$9,937,657	$4,937,657
$5,500,000	$10,931,423	$5,931,423
$6,000,000	$11,925,189	$6,925,189

Pettitte

Value	Runs	Wins
Total	21	2.1
2009 Salary	$12,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$6,334,465	($5,665,535)
$3,500,000	$7,390,210	($4,609,790)
$4,000,000	$8,445,954	($3,554,046)
$4,500,000	$9,501,698	($2,498,302)
$5,000,000	$10,557,442	($1,442,558)
$5,500,000	$11,613,187	($386,813)
$6,000,000	$12,668,931	$668,931

Chamberlain

Value	Runs	Wins
Total	25	2.5
2009 Salary	$432,575
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$7,583,456	$7,150,881
$3,500,000	$8,847,365	$8,414,790
$4,000,000	$10,111,274	$9,678,699
$4,500,000	$11,375,184	$10,942,609
$5,000,000	$12,639,093	$12,206,518
$5,500,000	$13,903,002	$13,470,427
$6,000,000	$15,166,911	$14,734,336

Wang and Chamberlain are still under team control, so they would rate as more valuable than a free agent of similar talent, so keep that in mind. I've assumed Pettitte will hit all his incentives so am showing his full salary and bonuses. If he misses time, it will affect both his value and cost, so his compensation should generally be close to his value.

Conclusion
The spotlight's going to be on Sabathia and Burnett, but how Wang, Pettitte and Joba do will probably be just as important for the Yankees chances in 2009. I like the chances of all three to match or exceed their projections, especially Joba.

--Posted at 3:29 pm by SG / 21 Comments | - (254)

Looking Ahead to 2009: C.C. Sabathia & A.J. Burnett

Time to churn through the pitching staff. I’ll start with the Yankees’ two big free agent signings, C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

2008

C.C. Sabathia	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	221	216	93	86	20	45	184	3.50	3.32	25	47
2008 marcel projection	200	194	86	78	17	46	173	3.51	3.27	22	42
2008 pecota projection	215	210	92	84	20	53	179	3.51	3.47	24	45
2008 zips projection	214	223	95	87	22	37	165	3.66	3.51	20	41
2008 cairo projection	222	218	97	88	20	47	181	3.57	3.38	23	45
2008 average projection	214	212	93	85	20	46	176	3.55	3.39	23	44
2008 actual totals	253	223	85	76	19	59	251	2.70	2.89	51	76
difference	39				122%	92%	121%	-0.85	-0.50	28	32

A.J. Burnett	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2008 chone projection	165	154	80	74	17	65	153	4.04	3.87	9	25
2008 marcel projection	156	143	76	69	17	58	146	3.98	3.86	9	25
2008 pecota projection	183	164	82	74	16	67	163	3.64	3.62	18	36
2008 zips projection	178	164	82	75	20	61	158	3.79	3.91	14	32
2008 cairo projection	159	150	79	72	19	55	152	4.08	3.88	8	23
2008 average projection	168	155	80	73	18	61	155	3.90	3.83	11	28
2008 actual totals	221	211	109	100	19	86	231	4.07	3.39	11	33
difference	53				123%	94%	114%	0.16	-0.43	0	5

A.J. Burnett has top-shelf stuff, as good as anyone in baseball. However, in his career he's been considered a disappointment in many seasons, primarily due to a long history of missed time and results not matching his stuff and peripherals. In general, his projections expected him to be a solid #2 type starter who would miss about five starts or so.

On a rate basis, Burnett underperformed his projections when looking at his ERA. However, his FIP was 3.39 and he struck out batters at a rate 14% higher than expected, while allowing homers at a rate 23% lower than projected. Unfortunately he also walked more batters than projected, but it was a very good season for Burnett if you look at his numbers besides ERA. Burnett's 221 innings were a career high.

2009
Here's how Sabathia and Burnett project for 2009.

C.C. Sabathia	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	211	205	87	80	19	43	185	3.41	3.23	26	47
2009 marcel projection	211	194	81	72	18	50	199	3.07	3.13	34	55
2009 pecota projection	231	222	96	88	22	53	201	3.43	3.38	27	51
2009 tht projection	214	197	83	77	20	45	189	3.25	3.28	30	51
2009 zips projection	223	214	82	76	21	47	204	3.07	3.23	36	58
2009 cairo projection	229	222	99	88	21	61	199	3.48	3.44	26	49
2009 average projection	220	209	88	80	20	50	196	3.29	3.28	30	52
C.C. Sabathia cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	252	227	98	87	18	58	234	3.11	2.95	39	64
65%	240	225	98	88	19	60	216	3.30	3.19	32	56
Baseline	229	222	99	88	21	61	199	3.48	3.44	26	49
35%	206	206	93	84	21	58	173	3.67	3.68	19	40
20%	183	189	87	78	20	55	148	3.85	3.92	13	32

Sabathia projects as the best or second most valuable pitcher in baseball in almost all the projection systems, jockeying with Roy Halladay. While there's some possible concern about his end of year workload in Milwaukee, his stuff didn't suffer at the end of the season and he passed his physical with the Yankees. As for the people who think that Sabathia "just replaces Mussina", they're wrong. Sabathia projects as 12 runs better than Mussina was in 2008.

A.J. Burnett	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
2009 chone projection	167	160	78	72	16	63	164	3.88	3.61	12	28
2009 marcel projection	187	174	91	83	19	71	181	3.99	3.72	11	29
2009 pecota projection	197	187	92	84	19	73	178	3.82	3.73	15	35
2009 tht projection	188	175	87	80	19	70	176	3.85	3.76	14	32
2009 zips projection	179	172	85	79	20	66	170	3.97	3.86	11	28
2009 cairo projection	192	183	95	87	20	58	180	4.07	3.58	9	28
2009 average projection	185	175	88	81	19	67	175	3.93	3.71	12	30
A.J. Burnett cairo %	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR
80%	211	186	94	85	17	55	213	3.64	3.02	20	41
65%	201	185	95	86	19	57	196	3.86	3.30	14	35
Baseline	192	183	95	87	20	58	180	4.07	3.58	9	28
35%	172	171	90	82	20	55	156	4.29	3.86	4	21
20%	153	157	84	77	20	52	133	4.51	4.14	0	15

Burnett's projections are basically similar to what he did in 2008, although they expect him to pitch a little better on a rate basis while pitching fewer innings. For all the consternation about his durability, his average projection expects him to pitch 185 innings. According to CAIRO, that makes him one of the 30 most durable starters heading into 2009.

Value
Sabathia

Value	Runs	Wins
Total	52	5.2
2009 Salary	$23,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$15,493,846	($7,506,154)
$3,500,000	$18,076,154	($4,923,846)
$4,000,000	$20,658,461	($2,341,539)
$4,500,000	$23,240,769	$240,769
$5,000,000	$25,823,077	$2,823,077
$5,500,000	$28,405,384	$5,405,384
$6,000,000	$30,987,692	$7,987,692

Burnett

Value	Runs	Wins
Total	30	3.0
2009 Salary	$16,500,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$9,054,893	($7,445,107)
$3,500,000	$10,564,042	($5,935,958)
$4,000,000	$12,073,191	($4,426,809)
$4,500,000	$13,582,340	($2,917,660)
$5,000,000	$15,091,488	($1,408,512)
$5,500,000	$16,600,637	$100,637
$6,000,000	$18,109,786	$1,609,786

Conclusion
I had Sabathia and Burnett projected as the most valuable free agents available in 2009. I wanted the Yankees to sign Sabathia as soon as I knew he was filing for free agency and the Yankees apparently agreed.

As far as Burnett, I'm not as down on his signing as most analysts. His projected value is in line with his contract if a marginal win is worth $5.5M to the Yanks. Is he an injury risk? Yeah, but so is ANY pitcher. As a fan, I hated when the Yankees faced Burnett because when he was on his game, he was unhittable. It'll be fun to be on the other side now. Drilling Burnett down to his wins above replacement is important, but as far as entertainment value, Burnett starts will be a blast to watch.

--Posted at 2:07 pm by SG / 6 Comments | - (344)

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Molino, Melky and Ransom (and Berroa I guess)

This post will look at the last three position players on the Yankees’ Opening Day 25 man roster, Jose Molina, Melky Cabrera and Cody Ransom.

2008
For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check out the first and second posts in this series.

jose molina	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	267	254	28	61	13	1	6	30	2	1	12	57	1	.240	.277	.370	25	60	1	.272
2008 marcel	326	299	30	74	17	1	6	34	3	1	17	64	2	.247	.285	.371	31	63	4	.275
2008 pecota	170	155	14	37	8	0	3	18	2	1	9	36	1	.240	.278	.346	15	56	-3	.264
2008 zips	203	194	17	47	10	0	3	23	2	0	8	44	1	.242	.276	.340	17	56	-3	.264
2008 cairo	222	203	20	49	11	0	4	24	2	0	12	43	1	.242	.281	.362	21	60	1	.270
2008 average	238	221	22	54	12	1	4	26	2	1	12	49	1	.242	.279	.359	22	59	0	.269
2008 actual	297	268	32	58	17	0	3	18	0	0	12	52	6	.216	.256	.313	21	47	-12	.241

Jose Molina was projected to be around replacement level in 2008, but as the backup to Jorge Posada that didn't seem like a big problem. That is, until Posada got hurt, pressing Molina into full-time duty. Molina hit .364/.364/.576 over his first 33 PA, then .196/.250/.277 over his last 264 PA. He finished 2009 seven runs less valuable than projected when compared to his actual playing time. Molina did manage to hit the last homer at Yankee Stadium, so I guess that's something.

melky cabrera	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	588	536	72	149	27	5	9	66	15	6	49	74	3	.278	.342	.397	71	78	13	.319
2008 marcel	558	494	70	140	25	5	9	63	12	4	49	66	4	.283	.346	.409	70	81	16	.322
2008 pecota	573	515	75	146	26	4	10	61	14	5	44	70	4	.283	.339	.404	70	79	14	.317
2008 zips	642	580	83	166	29	6	12	89	13	4	59	65	3	.286	.355	.419	84	85	19	.333
2008 cairo	433	385	55	106	18	4	7	49	8	3	37	52	3	.276	.337	.395	51	76	11	.314
2008 average	559	502	71	141	25	5	9	65	12	4	47	66	3	.281	.344	.405	69	80	14	.321
2008 actual	453	414	42	103	12	1	8	37	9	2	29	58	3	.249	.298	.341	42	60	-6	.278
difference	-19%	-17%	-41%	-12%	-42%	-74%	6%	-31%	-11%	-44%	-26%	7%	4%	-.033	-.046	-.064	-27	-20	-20	-.043

Melky made Molina look like an over-achiever with his 2008 performance. He pretty much did worse than projected in every single facet of his game. Aside from that it wasn't a bad year for him.

cody ransom	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	540	488	62	111	25	1	19	61	9	4	48	139	4	.227	.302	.400	60	72	3	.296
2008 marcel	223	195	30	51	11	1	6	25	3	1	23	38	3	.262	.345	.421	29	84	15	.326
2008 pecota	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	.000
2008 zips	428	388	38	85	18	0	16	54	7	3	36	117	4	.219	.292	.389	45	68	-1	.287
2008 cairo	427	384	47	88	21	1	17	54	5	2	38	100	3	.230	.302	.418	49	75	6	.300
2008 average	324	290	36	68	15	1	11	39	5	2	30	76	3	.234	.310	.408	37	75	6	.303
2008 actual	521	474	62	108	24	2	22	64	8	5	45	132	1	.228	.296	.426	60	75	6	.298
difference	61%	63%	70%	-3%	-2%	43%	20%	1%	2%	56%	-7%	7%	-80%	-.006	-.015	.018	22	0	0	-.004

Ransom spent most of his time in AAA so I've added his MLE into his line. He basically did what he was projected to do in terms of value, trading in some AVG/OBP for SLG.

Offense

jose molina	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	286	270	25	60	13	0	5	25	1	0	13	59	3	.222	.266	.326	22	51	-8	.254
2009 marcel	369	337	37	80	21	0	5	32	3	1	18	70	1	.237	.268	.344	31	55	-4	.256
2009 pecota	171	156	13	36	9	0	2	17	1	0	7	33	2	.229	.265	.325	13	50	-9	.250
2009 tht	320	300	29	70	18	0	4	29	1	1	16	60	4	.233	.281	.333	27	55	-4	.265
2009 zips	203	194	17	47	10	0	3	23	2	0	8	44	1	.242	.276	.340	17	56	-3	.264
2009 cairo	267	244	25	56	15	0	4	22	1	0	11	53	3	.228	.263	.335	21	52	-7	.252
2009 average	269	250	24	58	14	0	4	25	2	0	12	54	2	.232	.270	.334	22	53	-6	.257

I think those numbers speak for themselves. A lot is riding on Jorge Posada's repaired shoulder.

jose molina: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	273	249	30	65	19	0	6	27	2	0	15	46	5	.259	.311	.408	32	76	17	.301
65%	270	247	28	60	17	0	5	24	2	0	13	50	4	.244	.287	.371	27	64	5	.276
baseline	267	244	25	56	15	0	4	22	1	0	11	53	3	.228	.263	.335	21	52	-7	.252
35%	254	232	21	49	12	0	3	18	0	1	9	54	2	.213	.240	.299	16	40	-19	.227
20%	233	213	17	42	9	0	2	15	0	1	7	52	1	.198	.216	.262	10	28	-31	.202

In his career, Molina has been 134 OPS pts better against lefties. If he mainly plays against them he should be able to approach the 65% forecast, which still isn't great, but it's better than his baseline, right?

melky cabrera	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	566	515	70	144	25	4	10	66	13	5	48	70	3	.280	.345	.402	69	80	14	.322
2009 marcel	488	436	56	118	19	3	8	50	10	3	40	61	3	.271	.330	.383	55	74	8	.307
2009 pecota	484	436	57	116	19	3	8	49	10	4	37	61	3	.267	.324	.376	53	71	5	.302
2009 tht	525	481	60	130	21	3	8	50	11	3	40	67	4	.270	.331	.376	59	73	7	.308
2009 zips	553	509	58	135	20	5	10	58	12	4	40	69	4	.265	.324	.383	61	72	6	.305
2009 cairo	523	469	58	126	20	4	9	51	9	4	41	66	3	.268	.325	.382	58	72	6	.303
2009 average	523	474	60	128	21	4	9	54	11	4	41	66	3	.270	.330	.384	59	73	8	.308

With Nick Swisher around, Melky's probably restricted to CF, so that's what I'm comparing him to. Thanks to his youth, the projection systems still think he's going to get better, but so far, he's gotten worse every season.

melky cabrera: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	533	479	67	140	25	6	12	59	13	2	48	59	5	.292	.362	.442	75	91	26	.342
65%	528	474	63	133	23	5	10	55	11	3	44	62	4	.280	.343	.412	66	82	16	.323
baseline	523	469	58	126	20	4	9	51	9	4	41	66	3	.268	.325	.382	58	72	6	.303
35%	497	446	52	114	17	3	7	45	8	5	35	66	2	.256	.306	.351	47	62	-4	.284
20%	455	408	44	100	14	2	5	38	6	5	30	64	1	.244	.288	.321	36	52	-14	.264

If Melky had developed typically, his baseline for 2009 would probably be where his 80% forecast is. If he could hit that 65% forecast he'd pretty valuable as a backup OF.

cody ransom	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	472	426	57	93	20	1	17	57	6	3	43	136	3	.218	.294	.390	50	68	0	.289
2009 marcel	230	200	32	53	11	1	8	27	3	1	24	43	2	.265	.343	.450	31	88	19	.331
2009 pecota	386	343	39	74	17	1	13	50	4	2	35	105	3	.216	.292	.386	40	68	-1	.285
2009 tht	479	433	58	102	24	1	20	65	9	3	42	118	4	.236	.309	.434	59	80	11	.309
2009 zips	503	458	63	108	23	1	19	70	9	3	41	124	4	.236	.304	.415	58	75	7	.301
2009 cairo	514	462	68	108	24	1	20	64	3	2	46	131	4	.234	.306	.423	60	76	7	.304
2009 average	431	386	53	90	20	1	16	55	6	2	39	107	3	.234	.308	.416	50	76	7	.303

Ransom's projections aren't horrible, although we should probably ignore Marcel since it completely ignores his middling minor-league track record. Ransom's just a placeholder for Alex Rodriguez, and should probably cost the Yankees about a win for every 30 games that Rodriguez misses. However, he is a good athlete with some power so he may help the Yankees snag a win or tow along the way. Ransom's not young, 33 in 2008, so odds of him being better than his projections are slim. But I'll show his percentile forecasts anyway.

cody ransom: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	524	471	77	121	30	2	25	73	5	0	53	122	6	.256	.344	.490	78	97	28	.345
65%	519	467	72	114	27	2	23	68	4	1	49	126	5	.245	.325	.456	69	87	18	.324
baseline	514	462	68	108	24	1	20	64	3	2	46	131	4	.234	.306	.423	60	76	7	.304
35%	488	439	60	98	21	1	17	57	2	2	40	130	3	.222	.288	.389	50	66	-3	.283
20%	447	402	52	85	17	0	14	49	1	3	34	124	2	.211	.269	.356	38	56	-13	.263

Defense

Year	Player	Age	Pos	Inn	PO	A	TE	FE	WP+PB	SBA	SB	CS	SBR	CSR	WP+PBR	TER	FER	SBAR	RS	RS/120
2005	Jose Molina	30	C	480	409	40	2	0	29	37	19	18	4	4	-3	0	0	0	5	11
2006	Jose Molina	31	C	603	504	48	3	5	47	46	27	19	4	3	-7	0	-1	0	-1	-2
2007	Jose Molina	32	C	492	436	30	4	0	22	43	31	12	0	1	0	-1	0	0	0	0
2008	Jose Molina	33	C	737	634	52	3	0	36	74	42	32	2	8	-2	0	0	0	8	12
2009 Proj	Jose Molina	34	C	478	411	34	2	1	26	43	26	17	1	3	-2	0	0	0	2	4

As bad as Molina was offensively in 2008, he was great defensively. I had him ranked as the second best defensive catcher in the majors (behind Jason Kendall). However, it's worth noting that he wasn't all that great prior to 2008, although he projects to be a couple of runs better than average.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	20	CF	6	49	-2	-3	-3	-82
2006	21	CF	4	23	-1	-2	-1	-74
2007	22	CF	131	1073	7	-14	-3	-5
2008	23	CF	117	974	9	0	4	7
2009	24	CF	99	799	4	-4	0	0

Again, with Nick Swisher around, I'm just looking at Melky as a CF. ZR and UZR are violently opposed on the subject of Melky's defense, which ends up making him project as average. If he's average in CF, he's probably a handful of runs above average in the corners if needed there.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	29	3B	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	30	3B	0	0	0	0	0	0
2007	31	3B	2	8	0	0	0	-2
2008	32	3B	4	24	1	1	1	59
2009	33	3B	26	201	1	-1	0	-1

I probably shouldn't even show Ransom's fielding numbers since they're based on such a small sample size, but I figure the readership here understands that we shouldn't read too much in them. He could be anywhere from a -10 to +10 defender, but since he's hopefully not going to play more than 30-40 games at third the impact of his defense shouldn't be huge.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	15	-0.7	13	0.4	15	-1.2	110	-0.5	153	-2.0
2008	16	0.8	19	-0.6	17	0.2	128	-0.3	180	0.0
2009 Proj	16	0.3	17	-0.2	16	-0.3	122	-0.4	171	-0.7

Molina is a brilliant baserunner, combing blazing speed with intelligence to be one of the best baserunners in the league. Or he's really slow but never gets on base so it doesn't matter. Take your pick.

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	34	1.2	40	-2.2	45	0.6	295	-0.2	414	-0.1
2008	27	0.1	26	-1.2	26	-0.7	217	0.4	296	0.0
2009 Proj	29	0.5	31	-1.5	32	-0.3	243	0.2	335	0.0

Melky projects around average as a baserunner, which seems right to me.

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	3	0.1	6	0.0	2	-0.1	29	0.3	40	0.3
2008	3	-0.1	3	0.0	3	0.1	32	-0.1	41	0.0
2009 Proj	3	0.0	4	0.0	3	0.0	31	0.0	41	0.1

I listed Ransom's baserunning stats but again, they're meaningless. He did have some decent stolen base numbers in the minors so he should be pretty fast I guess. Whether that translates to runs is an open question.

Value
Jose Molina

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	-2	-0.2
Defense	1	0.1
Baserunning	-1	-0.1
Total	-2	-0.2
2009 Salary	$2,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	($663,999)	($2,663,999)
$3,500,000	($774,665)	($2,774,665)
$4,000,000	($885,332)	($2,885,332)
$4,500,000	($995,998)	($2,995,998)
$5,000,000	($1,106,665)	($3,106,665)
$5,500,000	($1,217,331)	($3,217,331)
$6,000,000	($1,327,998)	($3,327,998)

Melky Cabrera

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	8	0.8
Defense	0	0.0
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	8	0.8
2009 Salary	$1,400,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$2,343,989	$943,989
$3,500,000	$2,734,654	$1,334,654
$4,000,000	$3,125,319	$1,725,319
$4,500,000	$3,515,984	$2,115,984
$5,000,000	$3,906,648	$2,506,648
$5,500,000	$4,297,313	$2,897,313
$6,000,000	$4,687,978	$3,287,978

Cody Ransom

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	7	0.7
Defense	0	0.0
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	7	0.7
2009 Salary	$455,100
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$2,111,399	$1,656,299
$3,500,000	$2,463,299	$2,008,199
$4,000,000	$2,815,199	$2,360,099
$4,500,000	$3,167,099	$2,711,999
$5,000,000	$3,518,999	$3,063,899
$5,500,000	$3,870,899	$3,415,799
$6,000,000	$4,222,798	$3,767,698

Conclusion
It's not a particularly impressive looking bench, although adding Nick Swisher/Xavier Nady to it helps. Hopefully the Yankees won't need too much of their time this year.

Update: Angel Berroa

angel berroa	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	484	453	53	113	22	1	9	46	3	2	26	84	5	.249	.298	.362	47	62	4	.283
2009 marcel	329	300	33	71	14	1	5	31	2	1	20	57	2	.237	.283	.340	28	56	-3	.266
2009 pecota	191	175	16	42	8	1	3	19	1	1	10	32	2	.240	.285	.343	17	57	-2	.269
2009 tht	440	412	44	101	20	1	8	44	3	1	22	71	6	.245	.293	.357	41	61	2	.279
2009 zips	457	430	56	111	21	1	8	48	3	2	21	77	6	.258	.302	.367	45	64	5	.288
2009 cairo	462	426	51	106	20	1	8	41	3	2	22	78	6	.249	.290	.359	43	60	1	.277
2009 average	394	365	41	90	17	1	7	38	2	1	21	67	4	.246	.292	.355	36	60	1	.277

--Posted at 11:04 pm by SG / 36 Comments | - (273)

Looking Ahead to 2009: Hideki Matsui

I’ll try and get a post up on the bench later today, then I’m going to try and do one post for the starting pitchers and one for the bullpen tomorrow. This post will look at the last primary starter on offense, Hideki Matsui.

2008

hideki matsui	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	498	440	73	126	23	2	21	78	2	1	56	64	2	.286	.369	.491	76	100	21	.360
2008 marcel	537	470	81	135	27	3	18	82	4	2	57	67	3	.287	.363	.472	79	95	17	.349
2008 pecota	561	489	79	140	28	2	18	83	4	2	63	67	3	.286	.366	.465	81	94	16	.349
2008 zips	614	544	95	158	33	4	20	106	2	2	67	71	3	.290	.371	.476	92	97	19	.357
2008 cairo	539	470	80	135	27	2	21	84	2	1	61	68	2	.286	.367	.484	81	98	20	.355
2008 average	550	483	82	139	27	3	20	86	3	2	61	68	3	.287	.367	.478	82	97	19	.354
2008 actual	378	337	43	99	17	0	9	45	0	0	38	47	3	.294	.370	.424	51	88	10	.344
difference	-31%	-30%	-47%	2%	-11%	-100%	-35%	-25%	-100%	-100%	-10%	0%	57%	.006	.003	-.053	-31	-9	-9	-.010

Matsui had a disappointing overall 2008 due to knee issues. From the start of the season through June 22 he actually was hitting pretty well at .323/.404/.458 over 285 PA. He went on the DL at that point and returned August 19 to finish the season by hitting .209/.269/.326 over his last 93 PA. On a rate basis, Matsui was about 9 runs worse then projected, although if you look at just his pre-injury splits and pro-rate them to a full season he would have been 17 runs more valuable than projected over 650 PA.

Offense

hideki matsui	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	525	465	75	129	24	1	17	75	2	1	57	65	3	.277	.360	.443	72	90	11	.342
2009 marcel	452	397	60	110	20	2	14	61	3	1	48	60	4	.277	.358	.443	62	89	11	.340
2009 pecota	403	355	49	98	18	1	10	52	1	1	42	55	2	.275	.352	.417	52	83	5	.330
2009 tht	426	376	52	105	20	1	13	54	1	1	47	57	3	.279	.364	.441	59	90	12	.344
2009 zips	614	544	95	158	33	4	20	106	2	2	67	71	3	.290	.371	.476	92	97	19	.357
2009 cairo	459	403	66	114	22	2	14	64	2	1	49	58	3	.283	.361	.454	65	91	13	.344
2009 average	480	423	65	119	23	2	15	68	2	1	52	62	3	.280	.361	.446	67	90	12	.343

The projections expect Matsui to regain a little bit of pop but hit for a slightly lower AVG/OBP. His average projection would make him worth about 12 runs more than a replacement level DH (I set replacement level for a DH to what a league average hitter would hit now, which handles the position adjustment I think). His projections may be a little low since they don't account for the injury that affected his final numbers, but then again he will be 35 so he is in the decline phase of his career anyway.

hideki matsui: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	468	412	75	127	27	3	19	74	3	0	57	52	4	.309	.403	.527	82	113	35	.389
65%	464	407	70	121	24	3	17	69	2	0	53	55	3	.296	.382	.490	73	102	24	.367
baseline	459	403	66	114	22	2	14	64	2	1	49	58	3	.283	.361	.454	65	91	13	.344
35%	436	383	58	103	19	1	12	57	1	1	43	59	2	.269	.340	.417	54	80	2	.321
20%	400	351	50	90	15	0	9	49	0	2	37	57	1	.256	.319	.381	43	69	-9	.299

I wouldn't be surprised to see a healthy Matsui his his 65% projection, although I'm a Matsu fan so I may be biased.

Defense

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	31	LF	115	977	-8	-2	-5	-8
2006	32	LF	36	289	-1	-1	-1	-6
2007	33	LF	112	980	-7	-11	-9	-14
2008	34	LF	21	176	-6	-2	-4	-30
2009	35	LF	82	657	-5	-4	-4	-9

This has been a sore spot in Matsui's value. Luckily he should not see much time in the OF. His projection above is too generous because of regression to the mean IMO, he's probably closer to his 2007 defensive talent right now.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	30	0.3	33	0.6	59	1.8	371	0.0	493	2.6
2008	12	-0.1	33	-0.8	32	0.5	208	-0.1	285	0.0
2009 Proj	18	0.0	33	-0.3	41	0.9	262	0.0	354	0.9

Matsui's not particularly fast, but he's an intelligent baserunner who's a smidgen above average.

Value

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	12	1.2
Defense	0	0.0
Baserunning	1	0.1
Total	13	1.3
2009 Salary	$13,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$3,812,413	($9,187,587)
$3,500,000	$4,447,815	($8,552,185)
$4,000,000	$5,083,217	($7,916,783)
$4,500,000	$5,718,619	($7,281,381)
$5,000,000	$6,354,021	($6,645,979)
$5,500,000	$6,989,423	($6,010,577)
$6,000,000	$7,624,826	($5,375,174)

Matsui's 4 year, $52 million contract hasn't gone real well, although that's primarily because of injuries. I stripped out his defense assuming he'll be the DH but he still looks like a pretty severe overpay in 2009.

Conclusion I've always like Matsui, although it seems like I'm in the minority among Yankee fans who want to trade him constantly. It's the last year of his contract and I think he'll end up having a pretty good season. There's some legitimate concern about the Yankee offense, and a rebound by Matsui would be a big help.

--Posted at 10:19 pm by SG / No Comments | - (165)

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher

The RF battle between Xavier Nady and Nick Swisher has been the source of a lot of consternation in the Yankee blogosphere. Even though Swisher is preferred by the more sabermetrically-inclined among us, it looks like Nady will begin the season as the starter.

2008

xavier nady	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	486	446	61	122	24	1	20	65	3	2	29	91	11	.274	.333	.466	66	89	17	.333
2008 marcel	486	443	56	121	24	2	17	64	4	2	30	92	10	.273	.331	.451	64	86	14	.327
2008 pecota	449	408	55	115	24	2	16	65	4	2	29	86	8	.281	.337	.467	62	90	18	.333
2008 zips	425	390	50	101	21	1	17	64	1	0	25	92	10	.259	.320	.449	55	84	12	.320
2008 cairo	369	337	44	94	18	1	14	50	2	1	22	70	8	.280	.336	.466	51	89	17	.333
2008 average	443	405	53	111	22	1	17	62	3	2	27	86	9	.273	.332	.460	59	87	16	.329
2008 actual	607	555	76	169	37	1	25	97	2	1	39	103	9	.305	.357	.510	95	101	30	.357
difference	37%	37%	43%	11%	21%	-48%	9%	15%	-45%	-54%	5%	-13%	-29%	.031	.026	.050	35	14	14	.028

Entering 2008, Xavier Nady had seemingly settled into his niche as a slightly above average hitter who could be spotted in the OF corners or 1B and hit lefties well. At age 29 it was not likely that he'd have much improvement left in him. From the start of the season throuhg August 8th, Nady hit .335/.388/.566 for Pittsburgh and then the Yankees, who acquired him along with Damaso Marte in exchange for Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen and the big prize, Jose Tabata. From August 9th on, Nady fell off drastically, hitting .242/.294/.396 over his final 197 PA. Nady's final line was still a significant step up from his 2008 projections, as he wound up providing about 14 more runs than expected on a rate basis.

nick swisher	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	626	526	92	135	30	1	27	89	2	2	92	125	8	.257	.375	.471	94	98	26	.358
2008 marcel	597	502	82	129	30	2	23	78	3	2	80	123	8	.257	.363	.462	86	94	22	.346
2008 pecota	633	531	91	141	30	1	31	93	3	2	88	137	7	.265	.373	.501	99	102	31	.362
2008 zips	612	518	96	141	31	1	31	90	2	2	86	137	8	.272	.384	.515	100	107	35	.373
2008 cairo	570	479	83	126	28	1	28	74	1	1	79	115	8	.262	.373	.500	89	102	30	.362
2008 average	608	511	89	134	30	1	28	85	2	2	85	127	8	.263	.374	.490	94	100	29	.360
2008 actual	588	497	86	109	21	1	24	69	3	3	82	135	4	.219	.332	.410	71	79	7	.316
difference	-3%	-3%	-3%	-16%	-28%	-17%	-12%	-16%	34%	66%	-1%	9%	-48%	-.043	-.042	-.080	-23	-22	-22	-.044

Swisher's 2008 was almost the polar opposite of Nady's. Projected to have a big season by moving to US Cellular which is a big HR park, Swisher struggled all season, hitting .219/.332/.410 compared to his average projection of .263/.374/.490. Swisher was 22 runs less valuable than projected.

Offense
I touched on the subject of fluke seasons with Nady. Although I still haven't written the opposite study on negative fluke seasons, just eyeballing it it seems to show the same general thing. The fluke season is often an indicator of a player's change in skill although it often overstates it. That's good for Nady, but not so good for Swisher. So let's see what the projections say.

xavier nady	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	498	461	57	126	25	1	19	69	3	1	30	95	7	.273	.327	.456	66	86	15	.326
2009 marcel	550	501	65	142	30	1	20	78	4	2	35	101	3	.283	.327	.467	74	88	16	.326
2009 pecota	528	483	59	130	27	1	18	79	2	1	32	101	8	.270	.323	.444	67	83	11	.319
2009 tht	530	489	65	136	28	1	20	76	2	1	32	99	9	.278	.334	.462	72	88	17	.332
2009 zips	530	487	72	138	29	1	22	89	2	1	33	100	10	.283	.342	.483	76	94	22	.342
2009 cairo	524	479	63	136	27	1	21	74	2	1	33	94	10	.283	.339	.474	73	91	20	.337
2009 average	527	483	63	135	28	1	20	77	3	1	32	98	8	.279	.332	.464	71	88	17	.330

In general, the projections expect Nady to do what he was projected to do in 2008 in 2009. The 2009 performance spike gets tempered as he moves a year further away from his peak. His average line is a little below average for a RF, but 17 runs above replacement level.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts:

xavier nady: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	535	489	73	150	33	3	26	84	4	0	39	86	13	.307	.378	.542	92	112	41	.380
65%	530	484	68	143	30	2	23	79	3	1	36	90	11	.295	.359	.508	83	102	30	.359
baseline	524	479	63	136	27	1	21	74	2	1	33	94	10	.283	.339	.474	73	91	20	.337
35%	498	455	56	123	23	1	17	66	2	2	28	93	8	.271	.320	.440	62	80	9	.316
20%	456	417	48	108	19	0	14	57	1	2	23	90	6	.259	.300	.406	49	70	-2	.295

Nady's 2008 was basically around his 2009 65% forecast. I thought Nady had established a new talent level until his end of season swoon, so right now I wouldn't expect him to do much better than his baseline, which is somewhat optimistic when compared to his other projections.

nick swisher	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	602	511	86	126	26	1	26	78	3	1	86	133	5	.247	.360	.454	86	92	21	.345
2009 marcel	560	470	77	115	24	1	21	68	3	2	78	121	7	.245	.357	.434	76	88	16	.337
2009 pecota	524	441	69	108	22	1	24	73	3	1	71	120	6	.244	.352	.460	74	91	20	.340
2009 tht	565	481	70	119	25	1	23	75	3	2	78	122	6	.247	.359	.447	79	91	19	.342
2009 zips	617	524	97	133	29	2	27	89	3	2	86	140	7	.254	.366	.471	91	96	25	.352
2009 cairo	618	519	88	125	28	1	24	75	2	2	86	133	7	.240	.353	.442	84	88	17	.336
2009 average	581	491	81	121	26	1	24	76	3	2	81	128	6	.246	.358	.451	81	91	20	.342

Despite the consensus that Swisher is clearly better than Nady offensively, his average projection is only about 3 runs better over a full season, which is well within the margin of error of projections.

nick swisher: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	631	530	100	139	34	3	30	86	4	1	98	124	10	.262	.391	.507	105	108	36	.376
65%	625	524	94	132	31	2	27	80	3	2	92	128	9	.251	.372	.474	94	98	27	.356
baseline	618	519	88	125	28	1	24	75	2	2	86	133	7	.240	.353	.442	84	88	17	.336
35%	587	493	79	113	24	1	21	67	1	3	78	132	6	.230	.334	.409	71	79	7	.316
20%	538	452	69	99	20	0	17	58	1	3	67	125	4	.219	.316	.377	57	69	-3	.296

What's interesting here is that Nady's percentile forecast shows more upside than Swisher's. I'd have expected the opposite.

Defense
Since Nady and Swisher are fairly close offensively, defense becomes more significant when assessing them.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	26	RF	13	82	0	0	0	3
2006	27	RF	99	855	0	-4	-2	-4
2007	28	RF	94	748	-3	-1	-2	-4
2008	29	RF	89	764	1	0	0	1
2009	30	RF	102	835	0	-2	-1	-2

Nady's played LF, RF and 1B but it looks like he'll pretty much play only RF for the Yanks so I've listed those numbers. He's been a touch below average, but compared to Bobby Abreu he'll look like Paul Blair.

Since it looks like Swisher will start the year as a reserve, here are his defensive projections for RF, LF and CF.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	RF	121	1027	-1	8	4	5
2006	25	RF	1	3	-1	0	0	-127
2007	26	RF	57	414	4	9	6	22
2008	27	RF	17	109	1	-1	0	1
2009	28	RF	61	459	1	1	1	3

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	25	LF	79	655	2	1	2	4
2007	26	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2008	27	LF	18	137	1	3	2	24
2009	28	LF	62	475	1	1	1	4

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	24	CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	25	CF	1	2	0	0	0	217
2007	26	CF	59	481	-6	-4	-5	-16
2008	27	CF	70	535	1	-4	-1	-4
2009	28	CF	68	529	-1	-3	-2	-6

This is where Swisher picks up a little bit of distance on Nady, as he projects about 5 runs better defensively in RF over a full season.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	12	0.2	23	0.6	37	0.7	206	-0.8	278	0.8
2008	24	0.3	33	0.2	45	-3.4	237	1.3	339	0.0
2009 Proj	20	0.3	30	0.3	42	-2.0	227	0.6	319	0.3

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	13	0.4	39	0.6	49	0.7	337	0.3	438	1.3
2008	27	0.2	31	0.1	35	1.2	241	0.4	334	0.0
2009 Proj	22	0.3	34	0.3	40	1.1	273	0.3	369	0.4

Looks like they're essentially the same baserunner.

Value
Xavier Nady

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	17	1.7
Defense	-1	-0.1
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	16	1.6
2009 Salary	$6,550,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$4,927,617	($1,622,383)
$3,500,000	$5,748,887	($801,114)
$4,000,000	$6,570,156	$20,156
$4,500,000	$7,391,426	$841,426
$5,000,000	$8,212,695	$1,662,695
$5,500,000	$9,033,965	$2,483,965
$6,000,000	$9,855,234	$3,305,234

Nick Swisher

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	20	2.0
Defense	4	0.4
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	24	2.4
2009 Salary	$5,300,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$7,162,821	$1,862,821
$3,500,000	$8,356,625	$3,056,625
$4,000,000	$9,550,429	$4,250,429
$4,500,000	$10,744,232	$5,444,232
$5,000,000	$11,938,036	$6,638,036
$5,500,000	$13,131,839	$7,831,839
$6,000,000	$14,325,643	$9,025,643

Conclusion
Swisher appears to be the better player of the two, although the margin is not nearly as large as some people think it is (8 runs overall if they are both primary RF). So here's a question. Nady was a type A player this season and is eligible for free agency after this season. In order to maintain that type A status, he needs to play full-time. What's worth more?

2009 Nady + First Round Pick?
2009 Swisher?

For my depth charts during my season simulations, I put Nady in RF and Swisher on the bench. However, I gave Swisher 20% of the playing time in LF and RF, 10% of the playing time at 1B, 10% of the playing time in CF, and 20% of the playing time at DH. That means he would play around 80% of the time. With some intelligent platooning and with his ability to play several positions better than Nady, this is probably the better role for Swisher, even if he projects to be 8 runs better than Nady over a full season.

--Posted at 9:44 am by SG / No Comments | - (171)

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Brett Gardner

He's been named the Yankees' starting CF to begin 2009, so it's time to look at Brett Gardner.

2008

brett gardner	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	469	427	55	108	18	4	2	43	35	9	40	91	2	.253	.320	.328	48	66	1	.288
2008 marcel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	.000
2008 pecota	483	428	58	102	17	4	3	31	25	7	44	100	3	.239	.308	.316	45	61	-5	.277
2008 zips	468	417	73	112	15	4	1	27	28	9	49	87	2	.269	.348	.331	51	70	5	.307
2008 cairo	325	292	43	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.325	.335	32	65	-1	.293
2008 average	349	313	46	79	12	3	2	25	19	5	33	68	2	.253	.325	.328	35	66	0	.291
2008 actual	555	485	72	119	15	11	2	45	43	11	63	111	3	.245	.333	.334	60	70	5	.298
difference	59%	55%	58%	-3%	-20%	146%	-27%	18%	48%	34%	24%	6%	15%	-.008	.008	.007	25	5	5	.006

Those projections were for Gardner as a major leaguer, so I added his 2008 MLE to his MLB performance for comparison's sake. As you can see, Gardner exceed his projections slightly, somewhere around 4 runs better than expected over a full season. That includes the disastrous start to his major league career, where he hit .153/.227/.169 over his first 68 PA before he was demoted on July 25. Gardner was recalled on August 15th and actually ended the season pretty well, hitting .294/.333/.412 over his last 73 PA.
Offense
It's been rehashed just about everywhere, but Gardner is the type of player whose game does not project to translate well to MLB, which can be seen in his projections below.

brett gardner	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	502	446	75	115	19	7	2	34	33	9	54	104	2	.258	.341	.345	56	73	7	.305
2009 marcel	270	241	34	62	12	2	5	32	12	2	21	49	1	.257	.311	.386	31	74	8	.295
2009 pecota	498	430	69	109	19	6	4	32	32	9	55	99	3	.253	.334	.351	56	72	7	.300
2009 tht	506	447	66	112	15	7	5	35	31	5	56	97	3	.251	.338	.349	58	74	9	.305
2009 zips	501	446	74	111	14	6	2	30	41	8	53	101	2	.249	.331	.321	53	69	4	.294
2009 cairo	613	544	73	138	19	8	3	37	19	3	66	50	3	.254	.338	.334	64	68	3	.301
2009 average	482	426	65	108	17	6	4	35	28	6	50	85	2	.254	.332	.348	53	72	6	.300

Gardner projects below average on offense, but slightly above replacement level. Since the Yankees got replacement level out of CF last year, he may actually be an offensive upgrade. He has supposedly re-worked his swing and showed some more pop in spring training, but the quality and intensity of the competition he did it against means we shouldn't really read too much into it. It's possible he's changed his game, but we need to see it in games that count.

Gardner's CAIRO percentiles show that his chances for hitting for decent power are pretty slim.

brett gardner: cairo %iles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	625	554	84	153	24	11	5	44	24	2	76	43	5	.276	.374	.383	82	86	20	.337
65%	619	549	79	145	21	9	4	41	21	2	71	46	4	.265	.356	.358	73	77	11	.319
baseline	613	544	73	138	19	8	3	37	19	3	66	50	3	.254	.338	.334	64	68	3	.301
35%	583	516	66	126	16	6	2	32	16	4	59	50	2	.243	.321	.309	53	60	-6	.284
20%	533	473	56	110	13	4	1	27	13	5	51	49	1	.232	.303	.284	42	51	-15	.266

Gardner's 80% forecast is essentially league average for a CF, with the stolen bases making up for the below average SLG.

One nice thing about running the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout is I can look at the results of 6000 Brett Gardner seasons and see what he did.
OBP >.350: 28.5% of the time.
OBP >.400: 1.5% of the time.
SLG > .500: 0.3% of the time.
SLG > .400: 6.8% of the time.

I have no idea what Gardner will do this season. He could hit anywhere from his 20% to 80% forecast and I wouldn't be surprised.

Defense
Luckily, offense is only part of the equation when looking at what Gardner brings the Yankees.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2008	24	CF	22	161	3	5	4	38
2009	25	CF	40	303	3	4	4	17

Obviously we have severe sample size issues here, but Gardner was off-the-charts good in CF by zone rating and UZR in his brief MLB time. His +17 projection is probably still too optimistic even though I regressed towards the mean, but WTH, I'll assume that based on the fact that he has 80 speed and speed correlates very highly with OF defense that he's around a +10.

Baserunning
Gardner didn't really have enough opportunities to make his baserunning stats mean anything. He showed as average, but he should be better than that. The top baserunners in the league are typically around +5 in a season, I'll assume Gardner will be around a +3 since he's not likely to be on base as often as those runners.

Value

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	6	0.6
Defense	10	1.0
Baserunning	3	0.3
Total	19	1.9
2009 Salary	$400,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$5,641,665	$5,241,665
$3,500,000	$6,581,942	$6,181,942
$4,000,000	$7,522,219	$7,122,219
$4,500,000	$8,462,497	$8,062,497
$5,000,000	$9,402,774	$9,002,774
$5,500,000	$10,343,052	$9,943,052
$6,000,000	$11,283,329	$10,883,329

If Gardner's really a +10 defender and a +3 non-SB baserunner, his projections think he's almost an average overall CF. Of course, there's a very good chance he won't hit either his offensive projections or defensive projections. Still, last year, Melky Cabrera was -0.1 WAR, so it looks like moving to Gardner will be an upgrade of at least a win and maybe two.

Conclusion
While I think that MLEs and projections are very valuable and useful tools, I think they break around the margins. Gardner's on those margins. A look at players who accrued similar minor league stats left me fairly unimpressed. That's not to say Gardner won't end up useful. It's just not the most likely scenario, but I'll be pulling for him. He should be able to at the very least provide some utility as a fifth OF/defensive replacement/pinch-runner. I hear that job pays pretty well.

--Posted at 10:57 pm by SG / 21 Comments | - (393)

Monday, March 30, 2009

The 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition

Opening Day is almost here, so it’s time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2008 season through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator out there.

I’ve done this for the last few years. If you want to see how previous runs have gone, here are the links:

2005
2006
2007
2008

As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that’s certainly understandable. This year, I’m again using six different projection systems, and I’ve run each one 1000 times for a total of 6000 iterations.

Before I present the projected standings, it’s disclaimer time.
1) Projection systems are inherently limited in their accuracy, particularly for pitchers. We can get a rough idea of how most players will perform by looking at their past histories and how similar players have performed, and factoring in aging and regression, but abilities/talent can change in ways that can’t be forecasted.

2) Playing time distribution in these simulations will not match the actual playing time of the players involved. I used the rosters and depth charts available at MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus as my guide to set these up as realistically as possible, but it’s a possible source of error. Rosters were set up to have 35-40 or so active players per team, and to get a reasonable amount of playing time from the bench and extra pitchers, to more closely model reality.

3) We cannot predict injuries and/or roster changes. These simulations do include projected playing time based on past health issues, so someone like Rich Harden is not expected to make 30 starts. I’ve also included random injuries which may lead to some of the outlying results you see, but there’s no way to account for all the fluctuations that will happen with rosters this season.

4) These are the averages of 1000 seasons, so the results will tend to regress towards the mean. The final standings will not look like this, because they only play the season once.

5) These are NOT my predictions. These are projections based on running a computer simulation thousands of times with projection data that is inherently limited. If your favorite team doesn’t project well, don’t blame me, blame the computers and spreadsheets that projected them. I guess you can blame me for the CAIRO results if you want, otherwise you can take heart in the 2005 White Sox projecting to win 79 games, the 2006 Tigers projecting to win 80, or the 2007 Rockies projecting to win 79.

6) Since this is all automated, I don’t break ties. I simply award all ties a share of either the division title or wild card when it happens which is why you may see some funny decimal places in the standings that follow.

OK, so now that the disclaimers are out of the way, onto the projected standings. I am showing W-L to one decimal point to deal with displayed rounding issues and so I don’t get people asking me why the wins and losses don’t add up to exactly 2430, not to imply that these results are that precise.

There’s too much crap to fit it all into one post, so I’ve created separate posts for both leagues, and then a separate post for each projection system.

2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Summary
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CHONE edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Hardball Times edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - ZiPS edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO edition

And here are the combined standings of all 6000 projections:

AL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYA	95.9	66.1	853	711	2908.8	1776.2	90 - 102	813 - 894	673 - 749	96	98	3058	1897	963	74	8	0	100	95 - 104
BOS	94.3	67.7	837	703	2157.3	2053.4	88 - 101	796 - 879	667 - 739	94	94	2295	2205	1351	130	19	0	94	90 - 98
TAM	90.1	71.9	795	695	916.3	1591.2	84 - 96	756 - 834	659 - 732	90	89	1009	1735	2753	431	72	0	88	83 - 92
TOR	75.6	86.4	691	742	9.4	80.3	69 - 82	654 - 728	705 - 780	76	74	14	100	410	2979	2497	0	78	74 - 83
BAL	74.5	87.5	781	844	8.3	46.3	68 - 81	742 - 820	803 - 885	74	74	10	63	320	2457	3150	0	71	66 - 76

AL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CLE	85.5	76.5	803	754	2958.1	110.7	79 - 92	763 - 843	716 - 792	86	88	3092	1619	775	378	136	0	89	85 - 94
DET	81.4	80.6	784	775	1526.9	77.7	75 - 88	745 - 822	736 - 814	82	83	1629	1751	1159	901	560	0	83	80 - 87
MIN	79.5	82.5	748	769	1017.4	75.1	73 - 86	710 - 786	729 - 808	79	78	1102	1378	1558	1262	700	0	79	76 - 82
KC	74.6	87.4	728	801	259.1	18.5	68 - 81	690 - 766	761 - 841	75	75	291	746	1328	1652	1983	0	75	71 - 78
CHA	74.1	87.9	751	826	238.5	17.5	68 - 80	713 - 790	787 - 865	74	74	266	676	1188	1674	2196	0	69	65 - 74

AL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAA	85.4	76.6	777	734	3356.4	55.8	79 - 92	737 - 816	696 - 772	85	86	3498	1607	708	187	0	0	88	84 - 93
OAK	81.1	80.9	768	755	1563.4	60.3	75 - 87	728 - 808	717 - 793	81	82	1673	2155	1607	565	0	0	82	78 - 86
SEA	77.8	84.2	710	737	882.8	26.9	71 - 84	673 - 746	698 - 775	78	77	961	1631	1998	1410	0	0	77	73 - 80
TEX	72.1	89.9	776	879	199.1	10.2	66 - 79	737 - 815	835 - 924	72	72	227	672	1578	3523	0	0	70	64 - 75
Avg WC	93.3

Legend
W:Average wins over 6000 seasons
L:Average losses over 6000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 6000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 6000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 6000 seasons. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.

I'll run through the divisions and teams briefly:

AL East
Regular readers know that this whole exercise is just an excuse to make use of pie charts, so I'll start off each division writeup with a pie chart showing the breakdown for how the division titles were distributed. The pie charts here are for the combination of all projections. To look at the same thing for each separate projection just go to the appropriate link(s) above.

Team: New York Yankees
Avg Prj W: 96
2008 Actual W: 89
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: 7
PythagenPat W Diff: 9
Avg Prj RF: 853
2008 RF: 789
RF Diff: 64
Avg RA: 711
2008 RA: 727
RA Diff: -16
RF+RA Diff: 80
Division %: 48%
Wild Card %: 30%
Playoff %: 78%
High W: 98 (hbt)
Low W: 94 (marcel)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 1

Are the Yankees the best team in baseball? The numbers think so, although they thought so last year as well. The pitching and defense projects to be about two wins better than last season, but the bigger gain is on the offensive side (+65 runs) based on adding Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, plus more expected contributions from Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui. So a projected 81 run differential improvement adds about seven wins to last year's actual 89 win team, and about nine to their PythagenPat 87 wins.

Why they might be better than projected: We can't predict injuries, but in order to handle some of the downside risk I restricted Alex Rodriguez's playing time to around 120 games and Jorge Posada to around 100 games. On the pitching side I assumed that they will not get full seasons out of any of A.J. Burnett (around 27 starts), Chien-Ming Wang (around 26 starts), Andy Pettitte (around 25 starts) and Joba Chamberlain (around 23 starts). If those four are able to make more starts than that the Yanks should be a little better.

Why they might be worse than projected: They're not as deep as they could be. Having the loser of the Nady/Swisher battle around for corner oF and 1B depth will help, but they're susceptible at other positions. Right now the rotation looks solid, and with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves around they have some decent projected depth, but it's a reasonable question how good any of those three may be in 2009 if pressed into duty. The bullpen has some talented arms who project fairly well, but aside from Mariano Rivera they all carry some risk.

Legend
Avg Prj W: Average projected wins
2008 Actual W: Actual wins in 2008
2008 PythagenPat W: 2008 PythagenPat Wins
W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 Actual W
PythagenPat W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 PythagenPat W
Avg Prj RF: Average projected runs scored
2008 RF: 2008 runs scored
RF Diff: Avg Prj RF - 2008 RF
Avg RA: Average projected runs allowed
2008 RA: 2008 runs allowed
RA Diff: Avg Prj RA - 2008 RA
RF+RA Diff: Projected run differential delta
Division %: Percentage of times the team won their division
Wild Card %: Percentage of time the team won the wild card
Playoff %: Division% plus Wild Card %
High W: Higest average W projection and system
Low W: Lowest average W projection and system
Gap: Gap between High W and Low W
Avg Div Plc: Average place in division

Team: Boston
Avg Prj W: 94
2008 Actual W: 95
2008 PythagenPat W: 96
W Diff: -1
PythagenPat W Diff: -2
Avg Prj RF: 837
2008 RF: 845
RF Diff: -8
Avg RA: 703
2008 RA: 694
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: -17
Division %: 36%
Wild Card %: 34%
Playoff %: 70%
High W: 96 (chone)
Low W: 92 (marcel)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 2

Boston returns just about all their key players from last year's 96 win PythagenPat team, but they are projected to score a few less runs and allow a few more, which knocks them down by a win. Given the margin of error we're dealing with here, I'd say they are basically even with the Yankees, although they're tough to project given the uncertainty of some of their off-season signings.
Why they might be better than projected: The biggest reason is Jon Lester. Lester was outstanding last year as he appeared to finally have regained his strength after his cancer scare. However, the projection systems don't care about why Lester struggled in his prior seasons. They just see that he did and that suppresses his projections in 2009. While the jump in his innings last year is a possible concern, I'd estimate that a healthy Lester should be at least a win better than projected. The projection systems also expect Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis to regress somewhat. It's tough to say what kind of contributions they'll get out of Smoltz/Penny and Saito, all of whom are talented but who are all working their way back from injuries. If any of them can rebound somewhat, that will help out a bit.

Why they might be worse than projected: Daiskuke Matsuzaka outpitched his peripherals last year and may struggle to match his efficacy of last season. David Ortiz is projected to bounce back a fair amount but it's possible that his wrist injury may make that hard. Jed Lowrie looks entrenched as the starting SS, and while his defensive metrics were very good in a very small sample size last season, his minor league scouting reports are less sanguine about his defense. It's entirely possible that none of Penny/Smoltz/Saito contribute anything meaningful. Still, I unfortunately have a hard time seeing them being much worse.

Team: Tampa Bay
Avg Prj W: 90
2008 Actual W: 97
2008 PythagenPat W: 92
W Diff: -7
PythagenPat W Diff: -2
Avg Prj RF: 795
2008 RF: 774
RF Diff: 21
Avg RA: 695
2008 RA: 671
RA Diff: 24
RF+RA Diff: -3
Division %: 15%
Wild Card %: 27%
Playoff %: 42%
High W: 92 (pecota)
Low W: 88 (chone)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 3

The upstart Rays (Tampa Bay fans have to be tired of the word upstart by now) surprised most of the mainstream media with their performance last season, although CHONE and PECOTA both expected them to be pretty good. The secret's out now, but this is a very talented group of players and they should be in the thick of the AL East and wild card race all season.

Why they might be better than projected: 23. 24. 25. 27. Most of their key players are young and have the potential for growth beyond what the typical aging patterns built into projections systems would assume. They've got a deep farm system which can help them patch from within or go out and trade for help if needed. David Price's projections are pretty conservative in general based on the little pro experience he has. Although he'll start the season in AAA, he has a good chance to be up soon and to contribute more than projected if you go by his stuff and his scouting reports.

Why they might be worse than projected: They got some out of character performances from several relievers last year, and some or all of them could digress a touch. Like everyone, injuries could hurt them, although their overall organizational depth should mitigate that. They're in probably the toughest division in baseball, although they're a big part of that.

Team: Toronto
Avg Prj W: 76
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 93
W Diff: -10
PythagenPat W Diff: -17
Avg Prj RF: 692
2008 RF: 714
RF Diff: -22
Avg RA: 742
2008 RA: 610
RA Diff: 132
RF+RA Diff: -154
Division %: 0%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 1%
High W: 77 (cairo)
Low W: 74 (pecota)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Travis Snider is a very good prospect, but his average projection is only .255/.321/.426. He has the talent to exceed that although he's still very young. They have arguably the most valuable pitcher in baseball at the front of their rotation. Vernon Wells could play a full season.

Why they might be worse than projected: They've got a lot of question marks in their rotation, and their offense looks unimpressive. If Baltimore makes a leap forward, it will likely come at the expense of the Jays.

Team: Baltimore
Avg Prj W: 74
2008 Actual W: 68
2008 PythagenPat W: 73
W Diff: 6
PythagenPat W Diff: 1
Avg Prj RF: 781
2008 RF: 782
RF Diff: -1
Avg RA: 844
2008 RA: 869
RA Diff: -25
RF+RA Diff: 24
Division %: 0%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 1%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 73 (pecota)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 5

Baltimore's not really a bad team right now. Unfortunately for them, they're in the AL East. I calculate a rough dvisional penalty using the formula N - N/2 times Opponent's winning percentage, where N is the number of interdivisional games. In Baltimore's case, their collective AL East oppenents project to a winning percentage of .5495, so their AL East penalty is around 4 wins. Out of curiosity, I flipped Milwaukee with Baltimore and ran 100 simulations. Baltimore went from 74-88 on average to 81-81, and Milwaukee went from 83-79 on average to 75-87.

Why they might be better than projected: They have Matt Wieters 'Nuff said. Actually, that's lazy. They also have Nick Markakis, who's awesome, and Adam Jones and Felix Pie who have the talent to be awesome. Rich Hill looked like he was on the verge of being a solid lefty starter until his back and control deserted him. While the odds of it are small, he could return to where he was in 2007.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their rotation is full of question marks. Adam Eaton may actually pitch for them. They are going to have a crap load of tough games.

Here's a clustered column look at how many times each team placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.,

AL Central

Team: Chicago White Sox
Avg Prj W: 74
2008 Actual W: 89
2008 PythagenPat W: 89
W Diff: -15
PythagenPat W Diff: -15
Avg Prj RF: 751
2008 RF: 811
RF Diff: -60
Avg RA: 826
2008 RA: 729
RA Diff: 97
RF+RA Diff: -157
Division %: 4%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 4%
High W: 77 (cairo)
Low W: 72 (zips)
Gap: 5
Avg Div Plc: 5

Why they might be better than projected: Because they almost always are?
2005: +20
2006: + 8
2007: - 4
2008: +15
Those are the differences between the White Sox projections I've run since 2005 and their actual win totals. When a model misses once, it could be luck. When it misses twice it could also be luck. When it misses three times, it could conceivably still be luck, but more likely it points to some kind of systemic error in the model.

They may not project well statistically, but I think Kenny Williams and his scouts do well in identifying breakout candidates and players who are better-suited to their ballpark. I also think Don Cooper is one of the best pitching coaches in baseball and that helps them too. The projections generally assume regression from Carlos Quentin, Gavin Floyd and John Danks, but it's certainly possible all have improved tangibly enough to make those projections pessimistic given their ages (26, 26 and 23 respectively).

Why they might be worse than projected: Their young players could all hit/pitch like their projections say, and their older players like Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome could start to show the effects of their age.

Team: Cleveland
Avg Prj W: 86
2008 Actual W: 81
2008 PythagenPat W: 85
W Diff: 5
PythagenPat W Diff: 1
Avg Prj RF: 803
2008 RF: 805
RF Diff: -2
Avg RA: 754
2008 RA: 761
RA Diff: -7
RF+RA Diff: 5
Division %: 49%
Wild Card %: 2%
Playoff %: 51%
High W: 88 (chone)
Low W: 84 (hbt)
Gap: 4
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: After leading the league in OPS+ in 2004 and 2006, Travis Hafner's performance has plummetted. He's still fairly young and a rebound by him would be a big boost to the Indians' lineup. Grady Sizemore's already playing at an MVP-level clip but he's still young enough to have some more growth in him. Cliff Lee's probably not going to be as good as he was in 2008, but he also may not regress as much as the projections expect.

Why they might be worse than projected: Hafner may not rebound at all. They've got Carl Pavano as their #3 starter. They could use a little more power from the infield and OF corners than they project to get.

Team: Detroit
Avg Prj W: 81
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: 7
PythagenPat W Diff: 3
Avg Prj RF: 784
2008 RF: 821
RF Diff: -37
Avg RA: 775
2008 RA: 857
RA Diff: -82
RF+RA Diff: 45
Division %: 25%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 27%
High W: 85 (chone)
Low W: 76 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: Their defense should be better with Inge at third and Adam Everett as short. Miguel Cabrera is still one of the best hitters in baseball. Gary Sheffield looked cooked in 2008, but if healthy he could exceed his projections. Justin Verlander also has the talent to outpitch his projections by a non-trivial amount.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their rotation is still a little iffy with Jeremy Bonderman's health status and Dontrelle Willis's lost talent. Brandon Lyon's penciled in as the closer right now but his health and effectiveness are legitimate concerns.

Team: Kansas City
Avg Prj W: 75
2008 Actual W: 75
2008 PythagenPat W: 72
W Diff: 0
PythagenPat W Diff: 3
Avg Prj RF: 728
2008 RF: 691
RF Diff: 37
Avg RA: 801
2008 RA: 781
RA Diff: 20
RF+RA Diff: 17
Division %: 4%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 5%
High W: 77 (chone)
Low W: 70 (cairo)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Alex Gordon improved his OBP by 37 points and his SLG by 21 pts in 2008 and could possibly make more improvements in 2009. Billy Butler disappointed in 2008 but he's still really young (23) and still has that prospect sheen. Zack Greinke was very good last year and over his last 11 starts he had a 2.34 ERA and struck out 69 hitters in 69.1 innings. The projections expect him to give some of those gains back, but he may not.

Why they might be worse than projected: Kyle Farnsworth. Right now 2B looks suspect, although Mark Teahan may be able to make the transition.

Team: Minnesota
Avg Prj W: 79
2008 Actual W: 88
2008 PythagenPat W: 89
W Diff: -9
PythagenPat W Diff: -10
Avg Prj RF: 748
2008 RF: 829
RF Diff: -81
Avg RA: 769
2008 RA: 745
RA Diff: 24
RF+RA Diff: -105
Division %: 17%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 18%
High W: 85 (chone)
Low W: 78 (chone)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Most of their core players are relatively young. Their defense projects to be around 20 runs above average using a combination of zone rating and Fan Graphs' UZR, something that may or not be factored in adequately in the various projection systems.

Why they might be worse than projected: Joe Mauer is probably their most important player, and he's dealing with knee and back issues this spring. Joe Crede's back may not hold up that well playing half his games on turf,

AL West

Team: Los Angeles Angels
Avg Prj W: 85
2008 Actual W: 100
2008 PythagenPat W: 88
W Diff: -15
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 765
RF Diff: 12
Avg RA: 734
2008 RA: 697
RA Diff: 37
RF+RA Diff: -25
Division %: 56%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 57%
High W: 87 (pecota)
Low W: 84 (hbt)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: Their division isn't particularly strong, which may help them win a few more games than they project to. Howie Kendrick hasn't been able to stay on the field. The ability to stay healthy is a skill, but he may be able to crack the magic 500 PA barrier. They may get more innings from Kelvim Escobar than I have him projected for (around 80 innings).

Why they might be worse than projected: Ervin Santana and John Lackey are likely to open the season on the DL. While I assume that just about every pitcher will miss at least 2-3 starts a season in my depth charts, they could both miss more than that. Vlad Guerrero looks like he may be slowing down a little, and could underperform his projections. I've assumed Bobby Abreu will DH more than play the field, and his glove could hurt them if he sees too much time in the OF.

Team: Oakland
Avg Prj W: 81
2008 Actual W: 75
2008 PythagenPat W: 76
W Diff: 6
PythagenPat W Diff: 5
Avg Prj RF: 768
2008 RF: 646
RF Diff: 122
Avg RA: 755
2008 RA: 690
RA Diff: 65
RF+RA Diff: 57
Division %: 26%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 27%
High W: 83 (chone)
Low W: 78 (chone)
Gap: 5
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: The projections all generally agree that Matt Holliday's performance will take a fairly significant hit by moving to the AL and from Colorado to Oakland. While I can't speak for the exact park/league factors of all the different systems, I can tell you that in CAIRO, Coors Holliday projected to hit .334/.409/.576 vs. Oakland Holliday hitting .295/.374/.501. If Holliday's game translates better than that, the A's should be able to snag another win or two. Even with Jason Giambi at first base, the A's look to have enough good defenders to have an above average overall defense. They've also got one of the deeper farm systems in baseball, which should help them with both filling in holes from within and acquiring pieces if needed.

Why they might be worse than projected: The health of some of their key players is usually an issue, particulary Eric Chavez. They'll also be relying on some pretty young pitchers who are talented, but notoriously difficult to project.

Team: Seattle
Avg Prj W: 79
2008 Actual W: 61
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 18
PythagenPat W Diff: 12
Avg Prj RF: 712
2008 RF: 671
RF Diff: 41
Avg RA: 725
2008 RA: 811
RA Diff: -86
RF+RA Diff: 127
Division %: 9%
Wild Card %: 4%
Playoff %: 13%
High W: 81 (cairo)
Low W: 78 (hbt)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Felix Hernandez is already really good, but it wouldn't surprise anyone if he became the best pitcher in the majors as soon as this season. They've shored up their defense (the projected difference between a full season of Endy Chavez vs. Raul Ibanez is around 20 runs just by itself). Erik Bedard could make more than the 24 starts I have him penciled in for.

Why they might be worse than projected: The Mariners have several veterans in the last year of their contracts who they may decide to trade as part of their rebuilding. Trading any of them may cost them some wins in the short-term. The Mariners still haven't annointed a closer. While the role is generally overrated, it's still nice to have a decent one.

Team: Texas
Avg Prj W: 72
2008 Actual W: 79
2008 PythagenPat W: 75
W Diff: -7
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 776
2008 RF: 901
RF Diff: -125
Avg RA: 879
2008 RA: 967
RA Diff: -88
RF+RA Diff: -37
Division %: 3%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 3%
High W: 75 (marcel)
Low W: 69 (zips)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: The Rangers probably have the best farm system in baseball. Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland should begin the year in AAA and be available for a boost in the rotation at some point during the season. Ian Kinsler out-OPS+'ed AL MVP Dustin Pedroia by 12 points (134 to 122) and could outperform his projections.

Why they might be worse than projected: Michael Young's transition to 3B may not work out real well. Kinsler hasn't been able to play more than 130 games yet in his MLB career so his health is a potential concern.

Anyone who wants to look at or play around with the raw team level data from the simulations can download this Excel spreadsheet.

And that's your 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. Like I say every year, results are not guaranteed.

--Posted at 12:01 pm by SG / 117 Comments | - (1150)

The 2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition

Continuing off where the American League Edition left off, here are the results for the Senior Circuit.

Here are the results for the Senior Circuit.

To read all the caveats and disclaimers that you should keep in mind when looking at these, check the main post.

To see the individual projection systems, go to these links:
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CHONE edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Hardball Times edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - ZiPS edition
2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO edition

And here are the combined standings of all 6000 projections:

NL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYN	88.1	73.9	832	764	2409.0	803.8	82 - 94	791 - 873	726 - 802	88	89	2539	1808	1243	335	75	0	93	88 - 97
ATL	86.7	75.3	784	727	1793.8	795.1	80 - 93	745 - 823	690 - 764	87	88	1907	1940	1620	438	95	0	87	84 - 91
PHI	86.0	76.0	816	772	1654.8	775.7	80 - 92	776 - 855	733 - 811	86	85	1769	1879	1692	489	171	0	82	79 - 86
WAS	72.7	89.3	763	844	64.7	52.2	66 - 79	725 - 801	804 - 884	73	74	76	217	624	2423	2660	0	75	71 - 80
FLA	72.5	89.5	736	813	80.4	53.5	66 - 79	698 - 773	773 - 853	73	72	89	252	678	2290	2691	0	68	63 - 73

NL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CHN	91.5	70.5	815	713	3933.8	534.5	85 - 98	776 - 855	675 - 750	92	93	4057	1248	466	159	58	12	93	89 - 98
STL	84.1	77.9	771	740	1036.5	728.9	78 - 90	732 - 810	702 - 778	84	85	1125	2060	1519	778	392	126	87	83 - 90
MIL	81.9	80.1	778	769	636.8	517.8	75 - 88	740 - 815	730 - 808	82	82	699	1619	1605	1109	655	313	82	78 - 85
CIN	77.8	84.2	739	769	261.5	208.4	72 - 84	702 - 776	730 - 807	78	78	291	752	1359	1817	1205	576	77	74 - 81
HOU	73.0	89.0	729	806	70.8	79.3	67 - 79	691 - 766	766 - 846	73	75	80	347	676	1233	2045	1619	73	69 - 76
PIT	69.8	92.2	731	842	60.5	43.7	63 - 76	693 - 769	801 - 883	70	71	66	194	407	886	1488	2959	66	61 - 71

NL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAN	87.8	74.2	805	743	3114.0	430.8	81 - 94	766 - 845	705 - 781	88	88	3246	1560	701	368	125	0	91	87 - 96
ARI	83.7	78.3	735	715	1559.7	428.8	77 - 90	698 - 772	677 - 753	84	82	1662	1751	1229	836	522	0	85	82 - 89
SF	79.3	82.7	712	725	554.0	211.5	73 - 86	675 - 749	687 - 763	79	80	609	1157	1627	1578	1029	0	81	77 - 84
COL	79.0	83.0	798	818	577.7	233.4	73 - 85	757 - 838	778 - 858	79	79	630	1162	1475	1563	1170	0	76	73 - 80
SD	74.5	87.5	714	773	194.7	102.7	68 - 81	677 - 751	735 - 810	74	74	218	555	978	1502	2747	0	71	66 - 75
Avg WC	89.5

Legend
Avg Prj W: Average projected wins
2008 Actual W: Actual wins in 2008
2008 PythagenPat W: 2008 PythagenPat Wins
W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 Actual W
PythagenPat W Diff: Avg Prj W - 2008 PythagenPat W
Avg Prj RF: Average projected runs scored
2008 RF: 2008 runs scored
RF Diff: Avg Prj RF - 2008 RF
Avg RA: Average projected runs allowed
2008 RA: 2008 runs allowed
RA Diff: Avg Prj RA - 2008 RA
RF+RA Diff: Projected run differential delta
Division %: Percentage of times the team won their division
Wild Card %: Percentage of time the team won the wild card
Playoff %: Division% plus Wild Card %
High W: Higest average W projection and system
Low W: Lowest average W projection and system
Gap: Gap between High W and Low W
Avg Div Plc: Average place in division

NL East
Team: New York Mets
Avg Prj W: 88
2008 Actual W: 89
2008 PythagenPat W: 90
W Diff: -1
PythagenPat W Diff: -2
Avg Prj RF: 832
2008 RF: 799
RF Diff: 33
Avg RA: 765
2008 RA: 715
RA Diff: 50
RF+RA Diff: -17
Division %: 40%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 54%
High W: 91 (zips)
Low W: 85 (marcel)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: Jose Reyes and David Wright may not be done improving. Daniel Murphy's projections are somewhat uninspiring but he looked good in his time in MLB and may outperform them.
Why they might be worse than projected: Livan Hernandez. Tim Redding.

Team: Atlanta
Avg Prj W: 87
2008 Actual W: 72
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: 15
PythagenPat W Diff: 9
Avg Prj RF: 784
2008 RF: 753
RF Diff: 31
Avg RA: 727
2008 RA: 778
RA Diff: -51
RF+RA Diff: 82
Division %: 30%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 43%
High W: 88 (pecota)
Low W: 85 (chone)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: Their rotation looks pretty solid with the additions of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami. They've got Tommy Hanson in the wings if they need reinforcement there and he's emerged as one of the better prospects in baseball (#4 on Baseball America's top 100, #13 on Baseball Prospectus's top 100), Jeff Francouer has been pretty awful the last two seasons, but he has the physical talent to become useful, although he'll have to do it soon.

Why they might be worse than projected: Tom Glavine may not be any better than replacement level now but may pitch more than he deserves to due to his history with the Braves. Francouer may get more playing time than he deserves based on his popularity with the fans and his tools. The health of Chipper Jones, who has hit .342/.435/.592 over the last three seasons, is an annual concern. The health of their top two relievers (Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez) is one as well.

Team: Philadelphia
Avg Prj W: 86
2008 Actual W: 92
2008 PythagenPat W: 93
W Diff: -6
PythagenPat W Diff: -7
Avg Prj RF: 816
2008 RF: 799
RF Diff: 17
Avg RA: 772
2008 RA: 680
RA Diff: 92
RF+RA Diff: -75
Division %: 27%
Wild Card %: 13%
Playoff %: 40%
High W: 89 (zips)
Low W: 83 (marcel)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Jamie Moyer breaks projection systems. His average projected ERA is 4.72 which is a full run worse than last year. The difference between his 2008 and his projected 2009 if he makes 30 starts would be somewhere between two and three wins. Carlos Carrasco's projections aren't very impressive, but he's only 22 and has the talent to be a very good starter.

Why they might be worse than projected: Swapping Pat Burrell for Raul Ibanez may make them a little bit too left-handed and could pose some potential matchup problems. It's also a slight defensive downgrade. Cole Hamels's spring training elbow scare may be a precursor to something that would cause him to miss some time. Chase Utley's recovery from his hip surgery may necessitate some missed time.

Team: Florida
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 84
2008 PythagenPat W: 81
W Diff: -11
PythagenPat W Diff: -8
Avg Prj RF: 735
2008 RF: 770
RF Diff: -35
Avg RA: 813
2008 RA: 767
RA Diff: 46
RF+RA Diff: -81
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 66 (zips)
Gap: 10
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: They've got a good amount of young talent on both sides of the ball. A rotation of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller and Chris Volstad is long on potential.

Why they might be worse than projected: Matt Lindstrom's shoulder looks like it may be a concern. They'll be relying on a lot of players with sketchy health in their recent past. Hanley Ramirez has played through shoulder issues the last few seasons but at some point he may not be able to.

Team: Washington
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 59
2008 PythagenPat W: 62
W Diff: 14
PythagenPat W Diff: 11
Avg Prj RF: 763
2008 RF: 641
RF Diff: 122
Avg RA: 844
2008 RA: 825
RA Diff: 19
RF+RA Diff: 103
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 69 (hbt)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Maybe Cristian Guzman will actually be the MVP candidate PECOTA seems to think he is. Maybe Nick Johnson will play in more than five games.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their pitching staff is a little frightening.

NL Central

Team: Chicago Cubs
Avg Prj W: 91
2008 Actual W: 97
2008 PythagenPat W: 99
W Diff: -6
PythagenPat W Diff: -8
Avg Prj RF: 815
2008 RF: 855
RF Diff: -40
Avg RA: 713
2008 RA: 671
RA Diff: 42
RF+RA Diff: -82
Division %: 66%
Wild Card %: 9%
Playoff %: 75%
High W: 95 (zips)
Low W: 88 (chone)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: I restricted Milton Bradley to around 500 PA a season in RF given his past health issues. He could play more than that. I gave Rich Harden 19 starts, but he made 25 last year.

Why they might be worse than projected: I restricted Milton Bradley to around 500 PA a season in RF given his past health issues. He could play less than that. I gave Rich Harden 19 starts, he could pitch less than that.

Team: St. Louis
Avg Prj W: 84
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: -2
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 771
2008 RF: 779
RF Diff: -8
Avg RA: 740
2008 RA: 725
RA Diff: 15
RF+RA Diff: -23
Division %: 17%
Wild Card %: 12%
Playoff %: 29%
High W: 87 (zips)
Low W: 82 (pecota)
Gap: 5
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: They have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols, and nothing he might do would surprise me. Chris Carpenter has looked good this spring, but I restricted him to around 15-16 starts a season. In his career, Khalil Greene has hit .270/.318/.484 on the road compared to .225/.289/.369 at home. In some research I did on home/road splits I've found that the average player hits about 10% better at home, so if Greene suffered unduly from PETCO he may exceed his projections handily.

Why they might be worse than projected: Pujols plays through a lot of nagging injuries and there's a possibility he won't play as much as projected. They may get nothing out of Carpenter. Their bullpen looks like a work in progress and may cost them a few wins.

Team: Milwaukee
Avg Prj W: 82
2008 Actual W: 90
2008 PythagenPat W: 87
W Diff: -8
PythagenPat W Diff: -5
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 750
RF Diff: 27
Avg RA: 769
2008 RA: 689
RA Diff: 80
RF+RA Diff: -53
Division %: 11%
Wild Card %: 9%
Playoff %: 19%
High W: 86 (pecota)
Low W: 78 (marcel)
Gap: 8
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Prince Fielder was over two wins worse offensively in 2008 than he was in 2007. Rickie Weeks was a win worse. Ryan Braun was a win worse in more playing time. All are young enough to still be improving and could exceed their projections.

Why they might be worse than projected: Their rotation is going to be relying on good performances by some young pitchers(Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra), which is always a calculated risk.

Team: Cincinnati
Avg Prj W: 78
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 71
W Diff: 4
PythagenPat W Diff: 7
Avg Prj RF: 739
2008 RF: 704
RF Diff: 35
Avg RA: 768
2008 RA: 800
RA Diff: -32
RF+RA Diff: 67
Division %: 4%
Wild Card %: 4%
Playoff %: 8%
High W: 82 (chone)
Low W: 76 (pecota)
Gap: 6
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Jay Bruce. Joey Votto. After a couple of disappointing seasons, Homer Bailey may be able to put it together at age 23. Edinson Volquez was amazing through the All Star Break, 117.2 IP, 126 Ks, 2.29 ERA but scuffled a little after 78.1 IP, 80 Ks, 4.60 ERA. If that was due to fatigue, then he has decent chance to exceed his projections, which also include 80 innings of 7.20 ERA pitching for Texas.

Why they might be worse than projected:

Willy Taveras is a decent glove in CF but he might kill them at the top of the order. The rest of their defense still looks like a possible concern as well. Team: Houston
Avg Prj W: 73
2008 Actual W: 86
2008 PythagenPat W: 78
W Diff: -13
PythagenPat W Diff: -5
Avg Prj RF: 729
2008 RF: 712
RF Diff: 17
Avg RA: 806
2008 RA: 743
RA Diff: 63
RF+RA Diff: -46
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 77 (hbt)
Low W: 69 (pecota)
Gap: 8
Avg Div Plc: 5

Why they might be better than projected: They get to beat up on Pittsburgh.

Why they might be worse than projected: The rotation? The bench? Miguel Tejada, Ivan Rodriguez and Geoff Blum as starters?

Team: Pittsburgh
Avg Prj W: 70
2008 Actual W: 67
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 3
PythagenPat W Diff: 3
Avg Prj RF: 731
2008 RF: 735
RF Diff: -4
Avg RA: 842
2008 RA: 884
RA Diff: -42
RF+RA Diff: 38
Division %: 1%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 2%
High W: 76 (chone)
Low W: 60 (zips)
Gap: 16
Avg Div Plc: 6

Why they might be better than projected:They get to beat up on Houston.

Why they might be worse than projected: 70 wins would be an upgrade of three wins from last year's 67 win squad, which has since lost a half-season of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. In 6000 iterations, the Pirates won fewer than 50 games 322 times, and fewer than 60 games 942 times.

NL West

Team: Los Angeles Angels
Avg Prj W: 85
2008 Actual W: 100
2008 PythagenPat W: 88
W Diff: -15
PythagenPat W Diff: -3
Avg Prj RF: 777
2008 RF: 765
RF Diff: 12
Avg RA: 734
2008 RA: 697
RA Diff: 37
RF+RA Diff: -25
Division %: 56%
Wild Card %: 1%
Playoff %: 57%
High W: 87 (pecota)
Low W: 84 (hbt)
Gap: 3
Avg Div Plc: 1

Why they might be better than projected: Strong bullpen, mostly young offensive core, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.

Why they might be worse than projected: Manny's hammy. Tanyon Sturtze in the role of Scott Proctor.

Team: Arizona
Avg Prj W: 84
2008 Actual W: 82
2008 PythagenPat W: 82
W Diff: 2
PythagenPat W Diff: 2
Avg Prj RF: 735
2008 RF: 720
RF Diff: 15
Avg RA: 715
2008 RA: 706
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: 6
Division %: 26%
Wild Card %: 7%
Playoff %: 33%
High W: 88 (pecota)
Low W: 79 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 2

Why they might be better than projected: Most of their key players are young enough to improve more than projected.

Why they might be worse than projected: Injuries.

Team: San Francisco
Avg Prj W: 78
2008 Actual W: 72
2008 PythagenPat W: 68
W Diff: 6
PythagenPat W Diff: 10
Avg Prj RF: 711
2008 RF: 640
RF Diff: 71
Avg RA: 737
2008 RA: 759
RA Diff: -22
RF+RA Diff: 93
Division %: 14%
Wild Card %: 0%
Playoff %: 15%
High W: 81 (chone)
Low W: 72 (marcel)
Gap: 9
Avg Div Plc: 4

Why they might be better than projected: Tim Lincecum was so good last year that no projection system expects him to repeat it. Randy Johnson was effective last year in Arizona and made 30 starts, but I restricted him to 25. If he can go more often, that obviously helps. It may not take more than 85 wins to take the NL West, although the average wins for the first place winner was 91 over the 6000 iterations.

Why they might be worse than projected: Johnson may not make 10 starts given his age and his injury past. Bengie Molina is their cleanup hitter. General offensive issues could sink them.

Team: Colorado
Avg Prj W: 79
2008 Actual W: 74
2008 PythagenPat W: 74
W Diff: 5
PythagenPat W Diff: 5
Avg Prj RF: 798
2008 RF: 747
RF Diff: 51
Avg RA: 818
2008 RA: 822
RA Diff: -4
RF+RA Diff: 55
Division %: 10%
Wild Card %: 4%
Playoff %: 13%
High W: 81 (chone)
Low W: 74 (pecota)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 3

Why they might be better than projected: Chris Ianetta and Ryan Spilboroughs both hit better in 2008 than they are projected to in 2009. Todd Helton battled back issues last year and was restricted to just 361 PA while slugging just .388 which is obscenely bad for a 1B in Colorado. If he can bounce back to his 2007 or 2008 level he would be more valuable than projected. A full season of Troy Tulowitzki on both sides of the ball should help. Ubaldo Jimenez has top shelf stuff but bottom shelf command of it most of the time. A little bit better command and he could be one of the pitchers in baseball.

Why they might be worse than projected: Garrett Atkins (-7 projected UZR) and Brad Hawpe (-18 projected UZR) are among the worst defenders in MLB at their positions. Greg Smith's peripherals did not support his ERA last year(FIP of 4.82 compared to an ERA of 4.16) in Oakland, and he could be a disaster in Coors this year.

Team: San Diego
Avg Prj W: 74
2008 Actual W: 63
2008 PythagenPat W: 67
W Diff: 11
PythagenPat W Diff: 7
Avg Prj RF: 714
2008 RF: 637
RF Diff: 77
Avg RA: 773
2008 RA: 764
RA Diff: 9
RF+RA Diff: 68
Division %: 3%
Wild Card %: 2%
Playoff %: 5%
High W: 78 (chone)
Low W: 71 (zips)
Gap: 7
Avg Div Plc: 5

Why they might be better than projected: They have Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez.

Why they might be worse than projected: Jody Gerut projects pretty well in most of the systems, but a repeat of last year is probably a big question mark. Peavy and Chris Young are injury concerns.

Anyone who wants to look at or play around with the raw team level data from the simulations can download this Excel spreadsheet.

Back to the American League edition.

--Posted at 12:00 pm by SG / 1 Comment | - (586)

2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - ZiPS edition

Below are are the results of Dan Szymborski’s 2009 ZiPS projections when run through Diamond Mind Baseball 1000 times.

To read all the caveats and disclaimers that you should keep in mind when looking at these, check the main post

Standings

AL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYA	96.5	65.5	883	732	501.8	300.8	90-103	840-925	694-771	97	97	531	317	136	15	1	0	100	95-105
BOS	94.8	67.2	857	713	360.0	362.2	89-101	815-899	676-750	95	94	387	369	227	13	4	0	94	90-98
TAM	90.2	71.8	791	681	136.8	264.7	84-96	752-830	644-718	90	89	154	279	490	68	9	0	88	84-92
TOR	76.4	85.6	687	730	1.3	13.3	70-83	651-724	693-767	77	74	3	16	63	514	404	0	79	74-84
BAL	74.8	87.2	796	851	0.3	5.3	69-81	757-834	809-892	75	72	1	8	50	403	538	0	72	67-77

AL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CLE	85.4	76.6	810	763	484.3	6.2	79-92	769-850	725-802	86	87	507	282	124	61	26	0	89	85-94
DET	83.5	78.5	816	785	327.2	15.0	77-90	777-855	744-825	84	85	348	320	189	102	41	0	84	80-87
MIN	78.7	83.3	758	793	120.0	11.3	72-85	720-795	751-836	78	76	132	211	277	262	118	0	79	76-83
KC	76.4	85.6	739	802	55.2	3.5	70-83	699-778	762-843	77	77	62	153	257	291	237	0	75	71-79
CHA	72.0	90.0	773	868	13.3	0.3	66-78	733-813	828-908	72	70	17	70	127	272	514	0	69	64-74

AL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAA	85.3	76.7	784	738	563.0	7.0	79-92	744-824	700-777	85	85	582	285	113	20	0	0	88	83-93
OAK	80.8	81.2	756	753	256.0	8.3	74-87	716-795	715-791	80	79	273	344	310	73	0	0	82	78-86
SEA	79.2	82.8	721	729	174.0	2.0	73-85	684-758	690-767	79	81	185	339	356	120	0	0	76	73-80
TEX	69.2	92.8	783	920	8.0	0.0	63-75	744-822	877-964	69	69	8	57	191	744	0	0	68	63-73
Avg WC	93.5

NL East	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
NYN	91.2	70.8	849	749	470.8	154.1	85-97	808-890	711-787	91	89	492	314	166	25	3	0	95	90-100
PHI	88.6	73.4	822	751	301.8	148.7	82-95	782-862	714-789	89	88	323	340	295	38	4	0	89	85-93
ATL	87.5	74.5	791	729	223.8	153.6	81-94	753-830	691-766	88	88	237	340	356	64	3	0	84	80-88
WAS	75.0	87.0	769	827	4.5	7.3	69-81	730-808	788-866	75	74	6	26	132	678	158	0	75	71-80
FLA	66.4	95.6	717	855	0.0	0.0	60-73	681-754	815-896	66	68	0	2	14	188	796	0	65	60-71

NL Central	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
CHN	95.0	67.0	839	706	730.2	96.8	89-101	799-880	668-744	95	95	747	202	45	6	0	0	96	91-101
STL	87.2	74.8	777	713	195.2	163.5	81-93	737-816	676-749	87	85	212	459	241	73	15	0	88	84-92
MIL	82.5	79.5	802	785	66.7	83.3	76-89	763-841	745-825	82	82	74	268	387	211	58	2	82	79-86
CIN	77.1	84.9	749	785	6.0	16.8	71-83	713-786	747-823	77	79	6	80	245	457	190	22	77	73-81
HOU	71.0	91.0	723	824	2.0	6.0	65-77	685-762	784-864	71	73	2	20	82	207	583	106	70	65-74
PIT	60.2	101.8	678	880	0.0	0.0	54-66	641-715	839-921	60	61	0	0	2	23	143	832	60	54-65

NL West	W	L	RF	RA	Div	WC	StD W	Std RF	Std RA	Median	Mode	1	2	3	4	5	6	APW	Std APW
LAN	89.1	72.9	817	747	574.8	50.8	83-95	778-856	710-785	89	88	601	266	98	28	7	0	92	87-96
ARI	84.6	77.4	733	709	228.7	69.5	78-91	696-769	670-748	85	82	251	340	255	127	27	0	86	82-90
COL	81.1	80.9	799	798	118.0	30.7	75-88	758-839	758-838	81	78	128	225	290	263	94	0	81	78-85
SF	79.0	83.0	698	713	73.2	18.0	73-86	661-735	673-752	79	79	83	151	261	347	158	0	77	73-80
SD	71.4	90.6	703	788	5.3	1.0	65-78	666-739	749-828	71	74	7	34	86	219	654	0	70	65-75
Avg WC	91.1

W:Average wins over 1000 seasons
L:Average losses over 1000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 1000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 1000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 1000 season. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.

Pie Chart Madness!

Clustered Column Charts of Divisional Placings

--Posted at 6:40 am by SG / No Comments | - (191)

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Johnny Damon

When the Yankees signed Johnny Damon after 2005, I hated it. I hated it for emotional reasons primarily, but also because I felt he was a poor risk to be productive offensively and defensively through age 35. Heading into 2009 and the final year of his contract, let's take a look at Damon's value to this point.

Player	Year	Age	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	zr rs	uzr rs	avg rs	WAR	Value	Salary	Difference
Johnny Damon	2006	32	cf	669	.285	.359	.482	101.0	40	4	-7	-2	3.8	$19,014,058	$13,000,000	$6,014,058
Johnny Damon	2007	33	cf	604	.270	.351	.396	78.5	11	-1	7	3	1.4	$7,397,618	$13,000,000	-$5,602,383
Johnny Damon	2008	34	lf	621	.303	.375	.461	95.3	36	-1	3	1	3.7	$20,313,310	$13,000,000	$7,313,310
	Total			1894	.286	.362	.448	274.9	87	2	3	2	8.9	$46,724,985	$39,000,000	$7,724,985

I'm assuming a marginal win for the Yankees was worth $5M in 2006, $5.25M in 2007, and $5.5M in 2008. With that assumption, so far the Damon contract has been worth it and then some.

For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check out the first and second posts in this series.

2008
After a poor 2007, Damon looked like he was on the verge of collapse. Offensively, he slugged under .400 for the first time since his age 23 season, and defensively his range in CF appeared to decline drastically and his poor arm seemed to get even worse. CF also seemed to be taking a physical toll on Damon. Because of all that, the Yankees officially moved Damon to LF to start 2008.

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	598	535	97	148	26	3	16	63	17	5	60	78	3	.277	.353	.426	80	87	26	.334
2008 marcel	570	507	89	142	28	3	13	63	20	4	54	75	3	.280	.349	.424	76	87	27	.329
2008 pecota	534	471	76	131	25	3	11	59	15	4	55	69	3	.278	.354	.417	70	85	25	.330
2008 zips	575	519	93	145	25	3	12	67	17	4	54	73	2	.279	.350	.408	74	83	23	.327
2008 cairo	647	575	101	165	29	4	17	74	21	5	64	81	3	.287	.358	.437	90	90	30	.338
2008 average	585	523	92	147	27	3	14	66	18	4	58	75	3	.280	.354	.424	78	87	27	.333
2008 actual	623	555	95	168	27	5	17	71	29	8	64	82	1	.303	.374	.461	94	98	38	.355
difference	7%	6%	3%	8%	-4%	46%	15%	2%	50%	71%	5%	3%	-65%	.022	.020	.038	15	11	11	.021

Damon's projections were slightly pessimistic, pegging him to hit for an average line of .280/.354/.424, and projecting him to be worth around 2.4 wins above replacement. It's worth noting that the deadly accurate CAIRO projection system was the closest. Yay CAIRO! Damon instead was worth 3.6 wins above replacement offensively,

Offense
Here's how Damon projects in 2009.

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	615	551	97	152	27	3	15	65	19	5	62	81	2	.276	.351	.417	81	85	25	.330
2009 marcel	572	507	84	140	26	3	15	62	22	6	58	80	1	.276	.348	.428	77	87	27	.329
2009 pecota	549	486	80	136	26	4	12	62	22	6	55	77	3	.280	.353	.423	74	87	27	.331
2009 tht	573	512	74	140	26	3	13	61	2	22	59	80	2	.273	.351	.412	64	73	13	.328
2009 zips	628	564	99	164	30	4	15	69	2	25	62	78	2	.291	.363	.438	77	79	19	.342
2009 cairo	634	564	102	159	30	4	16	69	22	6	63	84	2	.282	.354	.433	87	89	28	.335
2009 average	595	532	90	149	27	4	14	65	15	12	60	80	2	.280	.355	.426	77	84	23	.334

The projections are expecting Damon to fall off by about a win and a half. I do expect him to fall off some, although perhaps not quite that much.

Here are his CAIRO percentile forecasts.

cairo percentiles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	647	575	114	175	36	7	20	79	28	4	73	77	4	.304	.389	.494	108	108	48	.372
65%	641	569	108	167	33	6	18	74	25	5	68	80	3	.293	.371	.464	97	99	38	.353
baseline	634	564	102	159	30	4	16	69	22	6	63	84	2	.282	.354	.433	87	89	28	.335
35%	603	536	92	145	25	3	13	62	19	7	56	84	1	.271	.336	.403	73	79	19	.316
20%	552	490	80	127	21	2	10	53	15	7	48	81	1	.260	.319	.373	59	69	9	.297

Defense
It doesn't seem like the Yankees are entertaining the idea of putting Damon back in CF, although it'd be a way to get the best offense on the field. Since it's still a remote possibility, here are Damon's ZRs and UZRS going back to 2005.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	31	CF	147	1225	0	-8	-4	-5
2006	32	CF	131	1087	1	-7	-3	-4
2007	33	CF	48	377	1	2	1	5
2008	34	CF	34	285	0	-6	-3	-14
2009	35	CF	89	722	0	-4	-2	-4

That doesn't include his arm, which probably costs about five runs a season.

Damon's LF statistics suffer from small sample size, but here they are anyway.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	31	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2006	32	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2007	33	LF	32	271	0	6	3	16
2008	34	LF	87	659	-3	8	2	5
2009	35	LF	81	612	-2	5	2	4

UZR likes Damon's defense more than ZR. As discussed in the Jeter thread, that probably means he saw a more difficult distribution of fieldable chances.

Dates	Player	TM	LG	Pos	G	INN	Ch	PM	ZR	Diff	RS
Through June 16	Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	LF	54	443.2	119	106	.891	6	5
After June 16	Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	LF	33	215.9	58	42	.724	-8	-7
Total	Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	LF	87	659.1	177	148	.836	-2	-2

Damon's zone rating was solid through June 16, then tanked. I blame Snacks Pontoon.

It's probably a safe assumption that Damon should be average or slightly above in LF defensively when looking at the combination of his CF and LF projections. A rough rule of thumb is that a league average CF should be anywhere from 10-15 runs above average in LF.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	41	0.4	42	1.7	60	2.0	371	-0.4	514	7.5
2008	46	-0.2	54	-1.1	55	-0.5	411	1.3	566	0.0
2009 Proj	44	0.0	50	-0.1	57	0.3	398	0.7	549	2.5

Damon was one of the better baserunners in the league in 2007 but fell to average in 2008. He should probably be somewhere close to that projection if he's healthy.

Value
Well, we already touched on Damon's value to this point, so let's see what the projections see as the final verdict on the Damon contract.

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	23	2.3
Defense	2	0.2
Baserunning	3	0.3
Total	28	2.8
2009 Salary	$13,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$8,271,727	($4,728,273)
$3,500,000	$9,650,348	($3,349,652)
$4,000,000	$11,028,969	($1,971,031)
$4,500,000	$12,407,590	($592,410)
$5,000,000	$13,786,212	$786,212
$5,500,000	$15,164,833	$2,164,833
$6,000,000	$16,543,454	$3,543,454

It looks like the Yankees will end up ahead on the Damon deal unless disaster strikes.

Conclusion
Damon's possibly playing for his last MLB contract so I think he'll do whatever he can to have a big year. The news that Joe Girardi is going to bat him 2nd this year behind Derek Jeter seems like a smart move. I'd be curious to see the stats of lefty batters with 1B occupied, but I don't have time to run the data right now. Anyway, it makes sense because it splits up the possible Gardner/Damon lefty bottleneck between 9 and 1 and it moves Damon's power down a slot where it should be more advantageous, since he should see more opportunities with runners on.

I didn't think it would happen, but I've warmed up to Damon. I probably wouldn't bring him back in 2010, but he's been solid as a Yank.

It looks like the season is dawning on us faster than I'll be able to get through all the players, but I'll try to double and triple them up to get through them. Also, I expect to have the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout posted early next week.

--Posted at 11:55 pm by SG / 106 Comments | - (526)

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Alex Rodriguez

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAR	RS	tR	WAR
Albert Pujols	2654	.336	.437	.624	295	31	325	32.5
Chase Utley	2685	.305	.385	.541	246	62	307	30.7
Alex Rodriguez	2691	.307	.408	.589	295	-13	282	28.2
Carlos Beltran	2602	.275	.362	.505	254	18	272	27.2
David Ortiz	2556	.298	.408	.598	262	-1	260	26.0
Matt Holliday	2529	.324	.392	.563	231	23	254	25.4
Joe Mauer	2263	.318	.401	.451	174	73	247	24.7
Grady Sizemore	2944	.281	.372	.496	211	30	241	24.1
Mark Teixeira	2717	.299	.389	.550	214	26	240	24.0
Chipper Jones	2043	.332	.430	.585	222	5	227	22.7

BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement
RS: Defensive runs saved above average, using an average of ZR and UZR
tR: BRAR plus RS

This table shows the ten most valuable players in baseball from 2005-2008 using position-adjusted batting runs above replacement and ZR/UZR runs saved for defense.

It's been a rough offseason for number three on this list. There were the constant stories about his personal life and then came steroid-gate. Then came the hip injury that looked like it could cost him the bulk of the season. Fortunately, a procedure was used which should allow Alex Rodriguez to return to the lineup sometime in the first quarter of the season. If the Yankees had lost Rodriguez for the season, they'd likely have been six or seven wins worse. As it is now, they should only lose about one game if Rodriguez can come back by May 1.

For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check out the first and second posts in this series.

2008

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	653	551	124	167	25	1	47	123	16	4	88	122	14	.303	.412	.608	130	129	69	.414
2008 marcel	621	525	108	157	26	1	36	116	17	4	79	118	12	.299	.399	.558	113	118	58	.393
2008 pecota	684	572	120	169	34	2	36	116	23	4	94	130	11	.294	.401	.550	125	119	58	.391
2008 zips	698	590	127	180	30	1	44	151	16	3	93	132	15	.305	.413	.583	134	125	65	.408
2008 cairo	689	581	124	174	27	1	43	129	19	4	90	128	14	.299	.403	.570	129	121	61	.399
2008 average	669	565	121	170	29	1	41	127	18	4	89	126	13	.300	.406	.574	126	123	62	.402
2008 actual	594	510	104	154	33	0	35	103	18	3	65	117	14	.302	.392	.573	111	121	61	.392
difference	-11%	-10%	-14%	1%	28%	-100%	-6%	-10%	9%	-15%	-19%	3%	17%	.002	-.014	-.001	-16	-2	-2	-.010

After an MVP season in 2007, Rodriguez projected to drop a bit in 2008. He was projected to hit .300/.406/.574 on average compared to his .314/.422/.645 line in 2007. On a rate basis, Rodriguez was pretty close to his projection, but after averaging 159 games a season from 2001 through 2007 he missed 24 games. Rodriguez also suffered from some poor performances in higher leverage plate appearances, which brought back the boo birds that he had silenced in 2007.

Offense
Rodriguez is moving away from the typical player's peak age, which is reflected in his 2009 projections.

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	634	541	111	159	27	1	39	116	15	4	82	124	11	.294	.397	.564	116	119	59	.394
2009 marcel	568	484	96	140	26	1	32	100	15	3	68	110	7	.289	.379	.545	99	113	52	.376
2009 pecota	624	537	97	151	29	1	30	98	18	4	72	124	9	.282	.373	.508	101	106	45	.365
2009 tht	577	496	88	145	27	0	34	98	12	15	69	111	12	.292	.392	.552	99	111	51	.388
2009 zips	641	548	110	160	30	0	37	113	15	17	78	124	15	.292	.395	.549	110	111	51	.389
2009 cairo	654	554	119	164	30	1	37	118	17	4	82	126	14	.296	.398	.553	118	118	57	.391
2009 average	616	528	104	154	28	1	35	107	15	8	75	120	12	.291	.390	.545	107	113	53	.385

Obviously the playing time has to be adjusted downwards, but on a rate basis his average projection is about eight runs worse than his 2008 actual performance. PECOTA is predicting a bigger dropoff than the other systems, with CHONE the most optimistic. Overall though, Rodriguez still projects as one of the top players in the league, although there is some legitimate concern about his health.

Here are Rodriguez's CAIRO percentile forecast2.

cairo percentiles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	667	565	132	180	36	1	44	131	22	2	93	117	19	.319	.437	.622	142	139	78	.433
65%	661	560	125	172	33	1	41	124	19	3	87	121	16	.307	.417	.587	130	128	68	.412
baseline	654	554	119	164	30	1	37	118	17	4	82	126	14	.296	.398	.553	118	118	57	.391
35%	622	526	107	150	26	0	33	107	14	4	74	125	12	.284	.378	.519	102	107	47	.370
20%	569	482	94	131	21	0	27	93	11	5	64	119	9	.273	.359	.484	84	96	36	.349

His 35% forecast is similar to what he did in 2004 and 2006, while his 80% forecast is similar to what he did in 2005 and 2007. I wouldn't be surprised to see him anywhere between those on a rate basis in 2009.

Defense

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	29	3B	161	1385	-14	1	-7	-7
2006	30	3B	151	1288	-11	-8	-10	-11
2007	31	3B	154	1330	-4	0	-2	-2
2008	32	3B	131	1126	2	0	1	1
2009	33	3B	149	1257	-4	-2	-3	-3

Rodriguez's defense at third has improved over the last few years, moving from a combined 18 runs below average in 2005 and 2006 to being just one run below average in 2007 and 2008. I'm not sure how his hip may affect his lateral range in 2009, which is probably a legitimate concern but a straight projection ignoring injury pegs him a few runs below average.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	27	-0.1	54	0.9	58	2.6	370	0.5	509	5.5
2008	19	0.2	38	0.0	41	0.3	290	1.4	388	0.0
2009 Proj	22	0.1	43	0.3	47	1.0	317	1.1	428	1.8

Rodriguez was one of the better baserunners in the league in 2007 but fell towards average in 2008. He should probably somewhere between that in 2009.

Value
Well, he's the highest-paid player in the game. Is he worth it?

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	42	4.2
Defense	-3	-0.3
Baserunning	2	0.2
Total	41	4.1
2009 Salary	$32,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$12,443,242	($19,556,758)
$3,500,000	$14,517,116	($17,482,884)
$4,000,000	$16,590,989	($15,409,011)
$4,500,000	$18,664,863	($13,335,137)
$5,000,000	$20,738,736	($11,261,264)
$5,500,000	$22,812,610	($9,187,390)
$6,000,000	$24,886,484	($7,113,516)

I adjusted his numbers to assume 80% playing time. Because of the missed time, Rodriguez looks like he will be overpaid in 2009. However, even if we give him all his projected playing time he would still be overpaid unless the Yankees value a marginal win at $6.2 million or higher.

Conclusion
Rodriguez is apparently doing well in rehab and it appears that he should be able to play out the season after his surgery, although he'll need another surgery after the season. I fully expect him to perform well when he plays. Let's just hope he plays enough.

--Posted at 10:50 pm by SG / 74 Comments | - (284)

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Derek Jeter

Player	Year	Age	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	zr rs	uzr rs	avg zr/uzr rs	WAR
Hanley Ramirez	2008	25	ss	693	.301	.400	.540	123.3	67.6	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	6.7
Jimmy Rollins	2008	30	ss	622	.277	.349	.437	93.2	39.7	6.0	11.4	8.7	4.8
Jose Reyes	2008	25	ss	758	.297	.358	.475	115.0	50.0	-9.0	-1.5	-5.3	4.5
Mike Aviles	2008	27	ss	441	.325	.354	.480	63.6	29.5	6.0	12.9	9.5	3.9
Derek Jeter	2008	34	ss	661	.300	.363	.408	85.7	36.2	3.0	-0.4	1.3	3.7
Jhonny Peralta	2008	26	ss	662	.276	.331	.473	93.1	41.1	-5.0	-3.2	-4.1	3.7
J.J. Hardy	2008	26	ss	624	.283	.343	.478	88.7	35.4	-9.0	11.6	1.3	3.7
Orlando Cabrera	2008	34	ss	727	.281	.334	.371	83.2	25.3	4.0	14.2	9.1	3.4
Marco Scutaro	2008	33	ss	586	.267	.341	.356	63.7	16.9	19.0	11.2	15.1	3.2
Stephen Drew	2008	25	ss	660	.291	.333	.502	99.4	40.8	-11.0	-12.7	-11.9	2.9

BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of standard zone rating and UZR
WAR: Wins above replacement, (BRAR + RS) divided by 10

The table above ranks the top 10 MLB SS by my version of their 2008 wins above replacement. Despite having what was a down season for him, Derek Jeter was arguably the second most valuable SS in the AL in 2008. However, he was down somewhat from his previously established level offensively. Let's take a look at his 2008 in a little more detail and then see what the projections expect out of him in 2009...

For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check out the first and second posts in this series.

2008

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	668	598	108	180	32	3	16	73	14	5	59	102	11	.301	.374	.445	96	93	33	.352
2008 marcel	628	554	94	174	31	3	12	70	18	5	57	95	10	.314	.384	.446	93	96	35	.356
2008 pecota	637	568	89	169	30	3	8	64	13	4	55	94	7	.297	.362	.407	82	84	23	.333
2008 zips	694	616	106	190	33	3	13	83	15	5	66	106	12	.308	.386	.435	100	94	33	.356
2008 cairo	711	628	107	198	35	3	16	79	19	5	64	105	12	.315	.385	.457	107	98	37	.360
2008 average	668	594	101	183	32	3	13	74	16	5	60	101	10	.307	.380	.439	96	93	33	.353
2008 actual	668	596	88	179	25	3	11	69	11	5	91	85	9	.300	.359	.408	84	82	22	.332
difference	0%	0%	-13%	-2%	-23%	-3%	-17%	-7%	-31%	0%	50%	-16%	-15%	-.007	-.020	-.031	-11	-11	-11	-.021

Jeter's .363 OBP was the lowest of his career in a full season, and his SLG of .408 was his lowest since 1997. There's been a lot of speculation that a HBP by Daniel Cabrera on May 20 may have been partially to blame, so here are some splits around that.

Dates	4/1 - 5/18	5/20 - 6/17	6/18 - 9/26	Total
PA	167	120	376	663
AB	156	105	335	596
H	49	22	108	179
2B	6	3	16	25
3B	3	0	0	3
HR	2	2	7	11
BB	7	9	36	52
SO	17	13	55	85
HBP	2	4	3	9
GDP	4	4	16	24
BABIP	.343	.222	.370	.336
xBABIP	.291	.261	.316	.299
dBABIP	-.052	.039	-.054	-.037
xH	-7	4	-15	-19
AVG	.314	.210	.322	.300
OBP	.347	.292	.391	.362
SLG	.429	.295	.433	.408
xAVG	.268	.244	.277	.269
xOBP	.304	.322	.350	.334
xSLG	.383	.329	.387	.376
BIP	140	92	281	513
FB	31	24	67	122
GB	85	55	159	299
LD	24	13	55	92
FB%	22.1%	26.1%	23.8%	23.8%
GB%	60.7%	59.8%	56.6%	58.3%
LD%	17.1%	14.1%	19.6%	17.9%
BR	21	9	1	84
BRAR	11	-4	7	14
pBRAR	7	0	22	29

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	662	595	94	175	30	3	12	68	12	4	59	98	8	.294	.366	.415	88	86	26	.339
2009 marcel	605	538	83	163	28	3	11	65	15	5	50	88	2	.303	.355	.428	80	86	26	.333
2009 pecota	599	535	78	154	25	3	6	56	13	4	49	84	6	.288	.350	.383	71	77	17	.319
2009 tht	616	557	75	166	29	2	8	63	9	13	50	88	9	.298	.365	.400	75	79	19	.335
2009 zips	706	636	101	192	32	4	12	80	11	15	59	103	11	.302	.371	.421	91	84	24	.344
2009 cairo	696	617	103	187	32	4	12	74	15	6	59	100	11	.303	.370	.427	95	89	28	.343
2009 average	647	582	90	174	30	3	10	68	12	8	55	94	8	.298	.365	.414	84	84	24	.338

In general, the projection systems expect him to be a touch better than last year offensively, by an average of about two runs. PECOTA is way pessimistic and CAIRO is probably way optimistic here.

Here are the ranges of Jeter's CAIRO projections:

cairo percentiles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	710	629	115	205	39	6	16	84	19	3	68	91	15	.325	.405	.481	117	107	47	.379
65%	703	623	109	196	36	5	14	79	17	5	64	95	13	.314	.388	.454	106	98	37	.361
baseline	696	617	103	187	32	4	12	74	15	6	59	100	11	.303	.370	.427	95	89	28	.343
35%	661	586	93	171	28	3	10	66	12	7	53	99	9	.292	.352	.399	81	79	19	.324
20%	605	536	80	151	23	2	8	57	10	7	45	95	7	.281	.334	.372	65	70	10	.306

Frankly, compared to his other projections even his baseline look a little too rosy, but I think if healthy he can hit it.

Defense
It's interesting to me that the media has started coming around to the idea that Jeter may not be the greatest defensive SS in the world after a season where he rated as average. As mentioned in the comments yesterday, Jeter started 2008 slowly defensively then played better over the rest of the season according to zone rating.

Dates	Player	TM	LG	Pos	G	INN	Ch	PM	ZR	AvgPM	Diff	RS	RS/162
Apr 1 - May 9	Jeter, Derek	NYY	AL	SS	31	266.2	92	70	.761	77	-7	-5	-29
May 10 - Sept 26	Jeter, Derek	NYY	AL	SS	100	862.8	279	236	.846	229	7	6	29
Total	Jeter, Derek	NYY	AL	SS	131	1129	371	306	.825	306	0	0	0

G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games

I wouldn't read too much into that.

Here's how Jeter defense has rated over the last four seasons and how he projects defensively in 2009 using both ZR and UZR.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)	p162
2005	31	SS	157	1353	0	-13	-6	-7
2006	32	SS	150	1292	-7	-5	-6	-7
2007	33	SS	155	1318	-23	-18	-21	-23
2008	34	SS	148	1259	0	0	0	0
2009	35	SS	153	1294	-7	-7	-7	-8

While Jeter's defense doesn't project to be good, I think the general impression of him being a horrendous defender is overstated. He's below average, but he's not killing the team if you look at both ZR and BIS's version of UZR. Using the same weights that I use for my CAIRO projections, the average SS is about nine runs worse than an average overall hitter over 650 PA. So Jeter's defense at SS doesn't project to cancel out the advantage of keeping him there, at least for 2009.

Baserunning
Jeter gets a lot of credit for his baserunning but the last couple of years he has basically been average according to Baseball Prospectus's stats.

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	38	0.0	58	0.7	56	2.5	462	-0.1	614	2.2
2008	35	-0.4	54	0.7	58	1.4	389	-0.8	536	0.0
2009 Proj	36	-0.2	55	0.7	57	1.8	413	-0.5	562	0.7

He projects to be worth about one run better than average in non-SB baserunning.

Value
Yeah, this should be ugly.

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	24	2.4
Defense	-7	-0.7
Baserunning	1	0.1
Total	18	1.8
2009 Salary	$20,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$5,341,873	($14,658,127)
$3,500,000	$6,232,185	($13,767,815)
$4,000,000	$7,122,498	($12,877,502)
$4,500,000	$8,012,810	($11,987,190)
$5,000,000	$8,903,122	($11,096,878)
$5,500,000	$9,793,434	($10,206,566)
$6,000,000	$10,683,746	($9,316,254)

There's no way to spin that. Jeter's 2009 compensation is way out of line with his projected value on the field. While I am sure some of that difference gets recouped by his off-the-field value, I also doubt all of it does.

Conclusion
Getting old sucks. Jeter's slowing down after what's been a very good career, and it is going to present the Yankees with a dilemma in the near future. Do they overpay him based on his name recognition and what he symbolizes, or do they try to find a role for him where he can still be an asset while doing what they have to do to improve the team? I'm not sure how they will handle it. A position switch seems futile if his hitting is really in the decline it appears to be in. At one point Jeter's bat would have played anywhere on the field, but I don't think it does now.

The fanboy in me hopes that last year was just a blip and that Jeter rebounds to hit something like .310/.370/.450. But the stathead in me realizes that's probably not happening.

--Posted at 9:52 am by SG / 70 Comments | - (559)

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Robinson Cano

Player	Year	Age	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAR	RS	WAR
Chase Utley	2008	30	2b	706	.292	.380	.535	49.7	16.1	6.6
Dustin Pedroia	2008	25	2b	719	.326	.376	.493	53.4	10.5	6.4
Brian Roberts	2008	31	2b	701	.296	.378	.450	54.2	1.9	5.6
Ian Kinsler	2008	26	2b	576	.319	.375	.517	48.8	-2.0	4.7
Placido Polanco	2008	33	2b	625	.307	.350	.417	33.8	3.8	3.8
Mark DeRosa	2008	33	2b	591	.285	.376	.481	36.4	0.9	3.7
Dan Uggla	2008	28	2b	619	.260	.360	.514	33.5	-0.9	3.3
Mark Ellis	2008	31	2b	502	.233	.321	.373	16.8	12.9	3.0
Kelly Johnson	2008	26	2b	605	.287	.349	.446	35.6	-6.7	2.9
Brandon Phillips	2008	27	2b	609	.261	.312	.442	18.1	10.6	2.9
Kazuo Matsui	2008	33	2b	415	.293	.354	.427	28.5	0.0	2.8
Adam Kennedy	2008	32	2b	365	.280	.321	.372	18.2	9.8	2.8
Mike Fontenot	2008	28	2b	281	.305	.395	.514	22.5	5.2	2.8
Jose Lopez	2008	25	2b	681	.297	.322	.443	29.8	-2.9	2.7
Akinori Iwamura	2008	29	2b	704	.274	.349	.380	27.4	-1.2	2.6
Orlando Hudson	2008	31	2b	452	.305	.367	.450	31.6	-5.6	2.6
Joe Inglett	2008	30	2b	377	.297	.355	.407	22.3	2.0	2.4
Aaron Miles	2008	32	2b	403	.317	.355	.398	23.9	0.1	2.4
Rickie Weeks	2008	26	2b	559	.234	.342	.398	23.7	-1.1	2.3
Mark Grudzielanek	2008	38	2b	357	.299	.345	.399	20.2	2.2	2.2
Ron Belliard	2008	33	2b	336	.287	.372	.473	22.0	0.0	2.2
Clint Barmes	2008	29	2b	413	.290	.322	.468	19.4	2.6	2.2
Ray Durham	2008	37	2b	304	.293	.385	.414	23.9	-2.3	2.2
Howie Kendrick	2008	25	2b	360	.306	.333	.421	19.5	-0.4	1.9
Mark Loretta	2008	37	2b	297	.280	.350	.383	17.0	1.1	1.8
Alexi Casilla	2008	24	2b	424	.281	.333	.374	17.0	1.0	1.8
Felipe Lopez	2008	28	2b	169	.385	.426	.538	18.3	-1.8	1.7
Edgar Gonzalez	2008	30	2b	353	.274	.329	.385	16.5	-0.6	1.6
Freddy Sanchez	2008	31	2b	600	.271	.298	.371	16.5	-0.7	1.6
Asdrubal Cabrera	2008	23	2b	407	.259	.346	.366	14.6	1.2	1.6
Jamey Carroll	2008	34	2b	392	.277	.355	.346	15.8	-0.6	1.5
Augie Ojeda	2008	34	2b	268	.242	.343	.299	9.0	4.6	1.4
Jeff Kent	2008	40	2b	474	.280	.327	.418	19.0	-5.6	1.3
Alberto Callaspo	2008	25	2b	233	.305	.361	.371	14.4	-2.2	1.2
Luis Castillo	2008	33	2b	352	.245	.355	.305	17.8	-6.6	1.1
Eugenio Velez	2008	26	2b	291	.262	.299	.382	12.8	-3.1	1.0
Ronny Cedeno	2008	25	2b	235	.269	.328	.352	8.6	0.8	0.9
Robinson Cano	2008	26	2b	633	.271	.305	.410	14.9	-5.7	0.9

BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of standard zone rating and UZR
WAR: Wins above replacement, (BRAR + RS) divided by 10

The table above ranks 2B by my version of their wins above replacement in 2008. This table doesn't account for the likely talent disparity between the leagues, but I wanted to hammer home how bad Robinson Cano's 2008 performance was.

In a season full of disappointments, the biggest one may have been Cano's performance on both sides of the ball. Cano seemed to be on the verge of becoming one of the premier 2B in baseball. Instead, he tanked and played poorly just about all season. Let's take a look at what he was projected to do in 2008 compared to what he actually ended up doing...

For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check out the first and second posts in this series.

2008

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	596	560	79	172	38	4	19	86	4	3	32	71	4	.307	.349	.491	88	96	32	.348
2008 marcel	585	543	80	171	39	4	16	82	5	3	31	74	5	.315	.354	.490	87	97	33	.349
2008 pecota	613	569	78	170	36	3	15	82	6	3	33	77	5	.299	.339	.455	82	87	24	.331
2008 zips	622	584	87	180	41	5	18	98	3	4	34	73	4	.308	.350	.488	91	95	32	.348
2008 cairo	590	549	79	171	38	4	17	81	3	3	30	73	5	.311	.348	.486	86	94	31	.344
2008 average	601	561	81	173	38	4	17	86	4	3	32	74	5	.308	.348	.482	87	94	30	.344
2008 actual	634	597	70	162	35	3	14	72	2	4	26	65	5	.271	.304	.410	70	72	8	.299
difference	5%	6%	-13%	-12%	-14%	-30%	-23%	-21%	-56%	16%	-23%	-17%	3%	-.037	-.044	-.071	-17	-22	-22	-.045

I'm not sure where to start. Cano underperformed in every category except his strikeout rate. While the drop in his batting average was a big concern, the underlying numbers weren't much better. His IsoD (isolated discipline, OBP-AVG) was .033 compared to his projected average of .040. His IsoP (isolated power, SLG- AVG) was .014 compared to his expected average of .173. So not only did the base hits not fall in, his power was down. The fact that he made more contact than projected is probably a detriment in his case since he hit so many slow rollers.

Actual Cano 2008 vs projected Cano 2008 cost the Yankees 22 runs on offense, a full two win falloff.

Update: Here are some splits on Cano's 2008:

Dates	4/1 - 6/13	6/14 - 9/28	Total
PA	270	362	632
AB	253	344	597
H	55	107	162
2B	13	22	35
3B	0	3	3
HR	4	10	14
BB	13	13	26
SO	23	42	65
HBP	2	3	5
GDP	7	11	18
BABIP	.226	.332	.286
xBABIP	.290	.332	.314
dBABIP	.064	.000	.028
xH	15	0	15
AVG	.217	.311	.271
OBP	.259	.340	.305
SLG	.316	.480	.410
xAVG	.275	.311	.296
xOBP	.314	.340	.329
xSLG	.374	.480	.435
BIP	230	306	536
FB	76	102	178
GB	115	139	254
LD	39	65	104
FB%	33.0%	33.3%	33.2%
GB%	50.0%	45.4%	47.4%
LD%	17.0%	21.2%	19.4%
BR	20	51	71
pBRAR	-12	27	15
xpBRAR	-1	27	26

PA: Plate appearances
AB: At bats
H: Hits
2B: Doubles
3B: Triples
HR: Homeruns
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
HBP: Hit by pitch
GDP: Ground ball double plays
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
xBABIP: Expected BABIP (Line drive% + .12)
dBABIP: xBABIP - BABIP
xH: Expected hits
AVG: Batting average
OBP: On base percentage
SLG: Slugging
xAVG: Expected average (adding in xH as singles)
xOBP: Expected on base precentage (adding in xH as singles)
xSLG: Expected slugging precentage (adding in xH as singles)
BIP: Balls in play
FB: Fly balls
GB: Ground balls
LD: Line drives
FB%: Fly balls divided byBalls in play
GB%: Ground balls divided byBalls in play
LD%: Line drives divided byBalls in play
pBRAR: Batting runs above replacement(position-adjusted)
xpBRAR: Expected pBRAR (adding in xH as singles/doubles at a 2/1 ratio)

From April 1 through June 13, BABIP was .226. According to the rough rule of LD% + 0.12 = expected BABIP, that means he was 0.064 below expectations, roughly equal to 15 missing hits. If we add those into his line as 10 singles and 5 doubles, he'd have hit .275/.314/.374 over that stretch. That's still not very good, but it's a lot better than what he actually did.

From June 14 through the end of the season his BABIP matched his expected BABIP exactly and he hit .311/.340/.480.

I won't rehash the gory details of his defense here, I'll just point to this post about it. But Cano's defense was also worse than projected (+5 vs. -5), another full win dropoff.

The good news is that 1728 is greater than 634, and 3560 is greater than 1377. We have 1728 plate appearances prior to 2008 which showed Cano to be a good hitter, and 3560 defensive innings at 2B that showed Cano to be at least an average defender. So putting 2008 to rest, let's move onto 2009.

Offense

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	589	556	78	167	37	4	16	79	4	2	29	65	4	.300	.340	.468	82	90	27	.336
2009 marcel	584	543	72	160	36	3	15	76	4	4	31	70	4	.295	.334	.455	77	86	22	.328
2009 pecota	594	553	66	157	33	3	12	72	3	2	29	70	5	.284	.322	.419	70	77	14	.311
2009 tht	576	541	70	160	34	3	15	75	5	3	30	68	5	.296	.339	.453	77	87	24	.332
2009 zips	650	614	82	182	42	5	19	88	5	3	31	71	5	.296	.335	.474	91	91	27	.335
2009 cairo	606	568	76	168	39	4	16	76	3	4	29	69	5	.296	.332	.464	81	87	24	.329
2009 average	600	563	74	166	37	4	16	78	4	3	30	69	5	.295	.334	.456	80	87	23	.329

The projection systems all expect a rebound, although not quite to where he was entering 2008. If Cano can hit his average projection, he will actually end up as a four win offensive upgrade just by himself.

There was a lot of talk about Kevin Long working with Cano to rebuild his swing and batting stance. If there's an actual tangible change there, than Cano's percentile forecasts may be more significant.

cairo percentiles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	619	579	87	184	46	6	21	86	5	2	35	62	7	.319	.366	.526	102	107	43	.367
65%	613	573	82	176	42	5	18	81	4	3	32	66	6	.307	.349	.495	91	97	33	.348
baseline	606	568	76	168	39	4	16	76	3	4	29	69	5	.296	.332	.464	81	87	24	.329
35%	576	539	68	153	34	3	13	68	2	4	25	70	4	.284	.315	.433	69	77	14	.310
20%	528	494	59	135	28	2	11	59	1	5	20	67	2	.273	.298	.402	55	68	4	.291

Cano's 65% forecast is probably where his baseline would be this year if he had done what he was projected to do in 2008. Honestly, I would be disappointed if he doesn't at least hit that.

Defense

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)
2005	22	2B	131	1143	0	-18	-9
2006	23	2B	118	1009	3	-2	1
2007	24	2B	159	1409	12	8	10
2008	25	2B	159	1377	-2	-7	-5
2009	26	2B	150	1282	3	-3	0

Cano's defense has been all over the place, from season to season, month to month and game to game. Even though he projects to be average, I'd guess he will either be good (+5) or bad (-5).

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	33	0.5	42	-0.9	53	-0.2	331	-0.6	459	-2.4
2008	38	-1.0	32	-0.2	42	1.0	281	1.0	393	0.0
2009 Proj	36	-0.5	35	-0.5	46	0.6	298	0.4	415	-0.8

Cano's baserunning was slightly below average in 2007 and average in 2008. Of course when you're never on base your baserunning is generally not all that important.

Value
Cano signed a long-term contract prior to 2008 which seemed like a good one at the time. That contract paid him $3 million in 2008 and will pay him $6 million in 2009. Since he's still under club control, assessing his value compared to the cost of a win in free agency is not completely fair.

Value
Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	23	2.3
Defense	0	0.0
Baserunning	-1	-0.1
Total	22	2.2
2009 Salary	$6,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$6,605,019	$605,019
$3,500,000	$7,705,855	$1,705,855
$4,000,000	$8,806,692	$2,806,692
$4,500,000	$9,907,528	$3,907,528
$5,000,000	$11,008,365	$5,008,365
$5,500,000	$12,109,201	$6,109,201
$6,000,000	$13,210,038	$7,210,038

Cano's deal still seems like fair value based on what he's projected to do in 2009.

Conclusion
To be honest, projecting Cano seems like a waste of time to me. He could do anything this season, good or bad, and it wouldn't surprise me. However, given the age of the Yankees, getting a good year out of Cano on both sides of the ball is going to be critical to their chances in 2009. Let's hope he can deliver.

--Posted at 11:54 am by SG / 49 Comments | - (242)

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Mark Teixeira

YEAR	BRAR	RS	WAR
2004	8.1	4.0	1.2
2005	43.2	-4.0	3.9
2006	19.1	-5.0	1.4
2007	10.6	-6.0	0.5
2008	22.0	-12.0	1.0
Avg	20.6	-4.6	1.6
Avg w/o 2005	14.9	-4.8	1.0

That's what the Yankees have gotten out of first base over the last five years. They've basically been below average in every season but ~~2006~~ 2005. The Yankees spent a good chunk of change to rectify this situation, swooping in at the last minute after what seemed like indifference to a player who seemed like an ideal candidate to fix first base for a while.

By my CAIRO projections, Teixeira was the second best available free agent in terms of projected wins above replacement for 2009(behind C.C. Sabathia). So let's take a look at what he brings the Yankees...

For information about the projections being used and the acronyms in the tables below, check this post.

2008
Teixeira started the season as Atlanta's 1B after coming over in a 2007 trade, and projected to be pretty good.

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	653	560	104	162	33	2	33	106	1	1	86	117	7	.289	.391	.532	111	111	36	.382
2008 marcel	560	486	81	143	33	2	26	95	2	0	65	101	6	.294	.382	.531	95	110	35	.376
2008 pecota	632	535	102	158	34	2	32	103	3	1	85	110	7	.295	.394	.547	111	114	39	.386
2008 zips	653	568	93	168	32	2	31	116	2	0	81	119	4	.296	.387	.523	110	109	34	.378
2008 cairo	653	568	93	168	32	2	31	116	2	0	81	119	4	.296	.387	.523	110	109	34	.378
2008 average	630	545	95	160	33	2	31	108	2	0	80	114	5	.294	.390	.531	107	111	36	.381
2008 actual	685	574	102	177	41	0	33	121	2	0	97	93	7	.308	.410	.552	125	118	43	.396
difference	9%	5%	7%	5%	19%	-100%	2%	7%	-9%	-100%	15%	-22%	21%	.014	.020	.021	17	7	7	.015

The projection systems were generally in agreement, that Teixeria would be around a .295/.390/.531, 36 runs above replacement player. However, Texeira ended up better than that overall, and if you factor in the league switch that should have suppressed his second-half numbers slightly, he was probably close to a win better than projected offensively. He hit doubles at a rate of 19% better than expected, increased his walk rate by about 15%, and cut his strikeout rate by 22%. The walk rate and K rate changes are interesting and could point to a change in approach that served him well, or they could just be random fluctuation.

Texiera certainly had a fine 2008 season, his best season according to OPS+. So what do we have to look forward to in 2009?

Offense

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	645	559	93	160	33	1	32	108	2	0	81	109	5	.286	.381	.521	107	108	33	.374
2009 marcel	600	513	84	150	35	1	27	97	2	0	76	101	10	.292	.393	.522	102	110	36	.381
2009 pecota	647	555	94	159	35	1	28	102	2	0	80	103	6	.287	.379	.506	104	104	30	.367
2009 tht	601	520	82	149	34	0	28	95	6	1	75	100	6	.287	.383	.513	100	108	33	.373
2009 zips	635	545	91	159	37	1	28	103	7	2	83	103	7	.292	.392	.517	107	110	35	.379
2009 cairo	666	571	98	166	38	1	32	111	2	0	85	110	7	.291	.387	.528	113	110	35	.378
2009 average	632	545	91	157	35	1	29	103	3	1	80	105	7	.289	.386	.518	106	109	34	.376

Teixeira's projections for 2009 are basically the same as his 2008 projections. Ostensibly this is because the spike in his 2008 performance is mitigated by his moving a year further out from an average player's peak. The projections basically see him as being worth somewhere around 3 to 3.5 wins above a replacement level 1B offensively. That's a win better than what the Yankees got out of first base offensively, so if some moron tells you that "Teixeira just replaces Giambi", you can tell them they are a moron.

And here are Teixeira's range of CAIRO projections.

cairo percentiles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	680	582	110	183	45	2	38	124	3	0	96	102	9	.314	.424	.595	135	129	55	.418
65%	673	576	104	174	41	2	35	117	2	0	91	106	8	.303	.406	.562	124	120	45	.398
baseline	666	571	98	166	38	1	32	111	2	0	85	110	7	.291	.387	.528	113	110	35	.378
35%	633	542	89	152	33	1	27	100	1	0	76	110	5	.280	.369	.495	98	100	26	.358
20%	580	496	77	133	28	0	23	87	0	0	66	105	4	.269	.350	.462	81	91	16	.338

He basically hit his 65% projection in 2008, so let's hope he can do it again.

Defense
One of the things that Teixeira also supposedly brings to the Yankees is a great glove. However, the statistics don't necessarily agree with the scouting reports on that. For non-catcher defense I am going to show both standard zone rating numbers as well as the newly available UZR data at Fangraphs.com.

Zone rating has been around since 1987 and it is a decimal from 0 to 1. Three individual scorers score every play at a position. If it's typically converted into an out at least 50% of the time, it's considered a fieldable chance. So zone rating just divides the fieldable chances that are converted into outs by all fieldable chances. I convert that to runs using a system developed by Chris Dial which was detailed in this post. I ran through an example of how the numbers are calculated in this post as well.

UZR stands for ultimate zone rating. It was designed by Mitchel Lichtman (b/k/a MGL) and his methodology is discussed in this blog entry, although he continues to refine it. It's generally considered the gold standard in defensive metrics. One thing that is a concern is that the UZR engine does show disparity in some defenders based on the input data being used (Stats Inc. Vs. Baseball Info Solutions). The Fangraphs numbers are based on the BIS data.

Year	Age	Pos	GP	Inn	RS (ZR)	RS (UZR)	Avg (ZR/UZR)
2005	25	1B	155	1358	12	-3	5
2006	26	1B	159	1399	-3	-2	-3
2007	27	1B	128	1098	-1	-4	-2
2008	28	1B	153	1335	15	12	14
2009	29	1B	149	1272	6	1	3

That doesn't really look like the supposedly great glove we keep hearing about, although it's worth noting that ZR and UZR don't capture a 1B's ability to scoop bad throws or to chase down foul popups, which are probably worth a few runs. He should at least be solidly average at 1B.

Baserunning

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	17	-0.1	38	0.2	28	-1.1	203	1.0	286	0.1
2008	32	-0.4	51	0.5	48	-0.5	258	0.1	389	0.0
2009 Proj	27	-0.3	47	0.4	41	-0.7	240	0.4	355	0.0

Teixeira's been an average baserunner the last two years and should be one again this year. That's good, since his infernal .400 OBP could clog the bases otherwise.

Value
Well, he got big bucks. Is he worth it?

Category	Runs	Wins
Offense	34	3.4
Defense	3	0.3
Baserunning	0	0.0
Total	37	3.7
2009 Salary	$20,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$11,165,965	($8,834,035)
$3,500,000	$13,026,959	($6,973,041)
$4,000,000	$14,887,953	($5,112,047)
$4,500,000	$16,748,948	($3,251,052)
$5,000,000	$18,609,942	($1,390,058)
$5,500,000	$20,470,936	$470,936
$6,000,000	$22,331,930	$2,331,930

He's probably worth it to the Yankees given the value of a marginal win. If he hits his 65% CAIRO instead of his average projection, he's worth another 11 runs/1 win.

Conclusion
Even though Teixeira seemed like a perfect fit for the Yankees, there were no indications they would pursue him. When they subsequently signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett it seemed like it would never happen. But it did, and the Yankees are better for it. I look forward to seeing him in pinstripes.

--Posted at 10:25 am by SG / 53 Comments | - (513)

Monday, March 16, 2009

Looking Ahead to 2009: Jorge Posada

With the news that Jorge Posada had a successful first day behind the dish yesterday, who better to start off the 2009 projections with?

I'll follow the same basic format I've followed in past years for position players, a quick look at 2008 in retrospect, then breaking down the offense, defense, baserunning and finally looking at their projected value compared to their salary

This year, I will be using six different projection systems for these pieces.

Sean Smith's CHONE.
The Hardball Times' projections (no fancy name for these yet).
Tango Tiger's Marcels.
Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS.
And my very own CAIRO.

2008
As everyone reading this blog knows, Posada missed the bulk of last year with a shoulder injury that necessitated surgery. In many ways, this underscored his importance to the team. I've always felt Jorge was underrated. Prior to 2008, Posada had appeared in at least 135 games for eight straight seasons, and has always been one of the top hitting catchers in the league. He gives back some of that value on defense and baserunning, but he's been a key cog and losing him for most of the season really hammered that idea home.

In my 2008 post-mortem, the numbers showed that the loss of Posada was the single biggest reason the Yankees failed to make the postseason.

So here's a look at Posada's projections entering 2008, and his actual performance.

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2008 chone	560	483	80	134	28	1	19	71	1	1	70	97	7	.277	.377	.458	82	95	37	.355
2008 marcel	549	476	72	137	30	1	18	80	3	0	63	97	6	.288	.375	.468	83	98	39	.356
2008 pecota	525	450	74	129	28	1	19	78	4	1	66	91	4	.287	.380	.479	81	100	41	.361
2008 zips	524	452	67	128	29	0	15	78	2	0	66	92	6	.283	.382	.447	77	95	37	.356
2008 cairo	524	452	67	128	29	0	15	78	2	0	66	92	6	.283	.382	.447	77	95	37	.356
2008 average	536	463	72	131	29	1	17	77	2	0	66	94	6	.284	.379	.460	80	97	38	.357
2008 actual	195	168	18	45	13	1	3	22	0	0	24	38	2	.268	.364	.411	26	86	27	.334
difference	-64%	-64%	-75%	-6%	25%	326%	-52%	-21%	-100%	-100%	0%	12%	-5%	-.016	-.015	-.049	-54	-11	-11	-.023

BR: Batting runs using linear weights.
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 plate appearances. As a rough rule of thumb, a replacement level hitter would be around 60 BR/650 (not adjusting for position), an average hitter around 80.
BRAR/650: Batting runs above replacement level, pro-rated to 650 PA.
wOBA: Weighted On-Base average, a rate version of linear weights that is scaled to OBP (ie .300 is bad, .335 is around average, .380 or higher is very good, etc.,). You can read about it at this link.

PA and AB differences are based on the average projections. R/H/2B/3B/HR/RBI/SB/CS/BB/SO are percentage differences on a rate basis, differences in AVG/OBP/SLG/woBA are just straight subtractions, the the BR stuff is all just straight run differences.

At least he hit for triples at a rate of 326% better than expected.

The biggest problem above is in the column labeled PA. As you can see, most of the projections were reasonably confident that Posada would be worth around four wins above a replacement level catcher. Even his relatively disappointing line would have been worth around 3 wins above a replacement level catcher(over a full season) because catchers just can't hit.

The good news is that Posada shouldn't have to do too much to make catcher more productive than it was. Let's see what the projections say for 2009...

Offense
As a 37 year catcher, time is not Jorge's side. Coupled with the uncertainty of how he will return from his surgery, catcher is probably the biggest area of concern I have with the team right now. With the caveat that projection systems don't care about injuries, here's the projection gauntlet for Posada.

	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
2009 chone	499	433	60	115	23	1	16	67	1	0	62	90	4	.266	.363	.434	68	89	30	.341
2009 marcel	356	309	44	88	21	1	11	49	2	0	41	65	3	.285	.371	.466	53	97	38	.352
2009 pecota	257	224	28	56	13	1	7	33	1	0	28	50	2	.249	.336	.406	31	79	20	.317
2009 tht	362	315	45	88	20	1	10	46	5	1	42	65	5	.279	.373	.444	52	94	35	.350
2009 zips	376	325	54	93	23	1	10	52	6	1	45	68	6	.286	.383	.455	57	98	39	.358
2009 cairo	431	371	55	107	26	1	12	61	1	0	54	74	5	.289	.386	.465	66	99	40	.362
2009 average	380	342	50	95	22	1	12	53	3	0	47	71	4	.277	.385	.448	57	97	38	.347

PECOTA's the big outlier here, but the injury clouds Posada's future. He's looked ok in spring so far, but we know that's generally meaningless.

I think Posada will hit enough to be an asset. Even his PECOTA forecast makes him an average hitter for a catcher. The average AL catcher hit .258/.322/.393 in 2008. What I don't know is how often he'll be able to play. For my Diamond Mind projections I'm assuming he will catch around 55% of the time. I think both Posada and the Yankees are hoping to beat that.

Lastly on offense, here are CAIRO's percentile forecasts for Posada.

cairo percentiles	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BR/650	BRAR/650	wOBA
80%	439	379	64	120	32	3	16	70	2	0	62	67	8	.317	.433	.541	83	122	63	.411
65%	435	375	60	114	29	2	14	65	2	0	58	70	6	.303	.410	.503	74	111	52	.387
baseline	431	371	55	107	26	1	12	61	1	0	54	74	5	.289	.386	.465	66	99	40	.362
35%	409	353	49	97	22	1	10	54	1	0	48	74	4	.275	.363	.427	55	88	29	.338
20%	375	323	42	84	18	0	8	46	0	0	40	72	3	.261	.340	.389	44	76	17	.313

Defense
If only Posada didn't have to catch. Here are Jorge's numbers for the last four seasons and his 2009 projection.

Year	Player	Age	Pos	Inn	PO	A	TE	FE	WP+PB	SBA	SB	CS	SBR	CSR	WP+PBR	TER	FER	SBAR	RS	RS/120
2005	Jorge Posada	34	C	1077	718	76	1	2	41	124	89	35	-6	6	1	2	0	0	3	3
2006	Jorge Posada	35	C	1050	789	66	8	1	50	98	64	34	1	6	-2	-1	0	0	4	4
2007	Jorge Posada	36	C	1111	799	54	2	3	65	130	102	28	-10	3	-6	2	0	0	-11	-11
2008	Jorge Posada	37	C	234	197	7	1	0	14	37	34	3	-6	-1	-1	0	0	0	-8	-36
2009 Proj	Jorge Posada	38	C	753	554	41	3	1	39	86	66	20	-5	2	-2	0	0	0	-5	-7

Inn: Innings played at position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
TE: Throwing errors
FE: Fielding errors
WP+PB: Wild pitches and passed balls
SBA: Stolen base attempts
SB: Stolen bases allowed
CS: Runners caught stealing
SBR: Run value of SB
CSR: Run value of CS
WP+PBR: Run value of WP+PB
TER: Run value of throwing errors
FER: Run value of fielding errors
SBAR: Run value for holding runners
RS: Runs saved compared to average
RS/120: RS pro-rated to 120 games
As you can see, the last two years haven't gone so well. Of course he made up for it with the bat in 2007.

Posada's never really been a great defender, fluctuating from average to below average most of the time. However, his shoulder injury last year really killed him. He threw out 3 of 37 baserunners trying to steal. Over a full season (120 games), he'd have been 36 runs below average.

It's tough to know how well he'll come back from surgery, but I think -5 over half a season's defensive innings seems realistic. If he's noticeably worse than that, I don't think they'll keep running him out there.

Baserunning
The one benefit of Posada being hurt means he wasn't on the bases. Most attempts to quantify non-stolen base baserunning agree that he is one of the worst in baseball. I mucked around a little with a system using retrosheet data a couple of years ago but lost interest, and I had Posada as the absolute worst baserunner.

I'm going to use Dan Fox's baserunning data from Baseball Prospectus. It only has data for 2007 and 2008, so it may be a little limited in what it can really tell us, but it's better than nothing. Fox includes stolen bases in his numbers but since I've already included them in offensive linear weights I removed them, not that it really matters in this particular instance.

Year	GA_OPPS	EQGAR	AA_OPPS	EQAAR	HA_OPPS	EQHAR	OA_OPPS	EQOAR	OPPS	EQBRR
2007	34	-1.3	52	-0.7	57	-4.0	361	-1.6	504	-7.5
2008	10	0.0	10	0.1	14	-0.9	87	0.0	0	0.0
2009 Proj	39	-0.9	39	-0.3	55	-3.7	339	-1.0	472	-6.0

GA_OPPS: Opportunities to advance on ground outs
EQGAR: Run value of advances/non-advances on ground outs
AA_OPPS: Opportunities to advance on fly outs
EQAAR: Run value of advances/non-advances on fly outs
HA_OPPS: Opportunities to advance on hits
EQHAR:Run value of advances/non-advances on hits
OA_OPPS: Opportunities for other advances (wild pitches, passed balls, balks, etc.)
EQOAR: Run value of advances/non-advances on other attempts
OPPS: Total of all opportunities to advance
EQBRR: Total run value of all advances/non-advances

I projected his baserunning value for 2009 by using a weighted average of 2007 and 2008 and then pro-rating to the average playing time in the projections.

Value
So you've got a good hitting catcher who doesn't play particulary good defense and runs like a Microsoft operating system in its first year of release. What does it all add up to? Funny you should ask...

So Posada still looks to be an asset, but how badly is he being overpaid? Is he being overpaid?

Category	Runs	Wins*
Offense	38	3.8
Defense	-5	-0.5
Baserunning	-6	-0.6
Total	27	2.7
2009 Salary	$13,000,000
Value if:a marginal win is worth:	Value	Difference
$3,000,000	$8,227,373	($4,772,627)
$3,500,000	$9,598,602	($3,401,398)
$4,000,000	$10,969,831	($2,030,169)
$4,500,000	$12,341,060	($658,940)
$5,000,000	$13,712,289	$712,289
$5,500,000	$15,083,518	$2,083,518
$6,000,000	$16,454,747	$3,454,747

*Wins are calculated by comparing offense to position-adjusted replacement level, and with defense and baserunning compared to average.

Figuring out value depends on the worth of a marginal win. We generally estimate it based on what teams end up paying for their talent acquisitions, but it is not the same for every team, and the current economy may have some impact. So I listed a range where marginal wins are worth somewhere from $3 million to $6 million.

Conclusion
I've always been a big Posada fan, enough to sponsor his Baseball Reference page even. It kind of sucks that it took Jorge getting hurt and missing most of a season for a lot of people to realize how consistently good and valuable he's been. Even with the expected decline due to age, if he can hold up physically he should be able to make a positive contribution to the Yanks in 2009.

--Posted at 9:35 am by SG / 51 Comments | - (476)

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Still a Touch Early 2009 Projected Standings - ZiPS edition

Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory has created a 2009 ZiPS projection disk for Diamond Mind. so I've run 100 iterations and the results are below. This will probably be the last set of projected standings I post before starting my full set of projections. I'm assuming that Alex Rodriguez will miss 30% of the games here.

AL East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
NYA09	97.6	64.4	888	735	50.5	29.0
BOS09	95.8	66.2	863	706	34.5	39.0
TB09	90.7	71.3	793	678	15.0	27.0
TOR09	76.3	85.7	686	728	0.0	1.0
BAL09	74.7	87.3	792	851	0.0	0.0

AL Central	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
CLE09	84.8	77.2	810	760	42.5	1.0
DET09	83.8	78.3	812	773	39.0	0.0
MIN09	79.5	82.5	753	787	13.0	0.0
KC09	76.3	85.7	740	805	4.5	1.0
CHA09	70.9	91.1	769	871	1.0	1.0

AL West	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
LAA09	83.0	79.0	766	744	40.0	0.0
OAK09	81.3	80.7	757	749	40.5	0.0
SEA09	78.3	83.7	712	731	17.5	0.0
TEX09	69.9	92.1	784	912	2.0	1.0

NL East	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
NYN09	90.5	71.5	851	759	45.5	13.5
PHI09	88.8	73.2	825	754	30.5	17.5
ATL09	87.0	75.0	791	732	24.0	16.8
WAS09	75.3	86.7	776	829	0.0	1.5
FLA09	66.7	95.3	720	857	0.0	0.0

NL Central	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
CHN09	94.8	67.2	841	705	76.0	7.5
STL09	86.8	75.2	769	709	17.5	16.8
MIL09	82.0	80.0	799	787	5.5	9.0
CIN09	76.8	85.2	742	784	1.0	0.0
HOU09	71.4	90.6	731	835	0.0	0.0
PIT09	60.5	101.5	684	879	0.0	0.0

NL West	W	L	RF	RA	DIV	WC
LAD09	89.0	73.0	822	747	52.8	2.0
ARI09	86.0	76.0	739	705	26.8	8.5
COL09	81.2	80.9	797	796	8.5	3.5
SF09	78.9	83.1	701	720	10.8	3.0
SD09	71.7	90.4	705	785	1.0	0.3

I should be able to start my player previews/projections sometime this week as well. I'm going to shelve the 20 worst seasons by position for now, and probably revisit it later.

Update: Standard deviations for wins added as requested by Mike K.

AL East	SD W
NYA09	92 - 104
BOS09	90 - 102
TB09	85 - 97
TOR09	69 - 83
BAL09	68 - 81
AL Central	SD W
CLE09	79 - 90
DET09	77 - 91
MIN09	73 - 86
KC09	70 - 82
CHA09	65 - 77
AL West	SD W
LAA09	77 - 89
OAK09	75 - 88
SEA09	72 - 84
TEX09	64 - 76
NL East	SD W
NYN09	84 - 97
PHI09	83 - 95
ATL09	81 - 93
WAS09	70 - 81
FLA09	61 - 72
NL Central	SD W
CHN09	88 - 101
STL09	81 - 93
MIL09	76 - 88
CIN09	72 - 82
HOU09	66 - 77
PIT09	54 - 67
NL West	SD W
LAD09	82 - 96
ARI09	80 - 92
COL09	74 - 88
SF09	72 - 85
SD09	65 - 78

--Posted at 8:51 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (571)

Thursday, March 5, 2009

2009 Yankees - Alex Rodriguez = ?

What follows is a table showing the average of several projections(CHONE, Hardball Times, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO) for Alex Rodriguez, Cody Ransom, and Angel Berroa.

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	Outs/650	BR/Out	BR/400 Outs	Downgrade
Rodriguez	.291	.389	.545	120	397	.302	121	0
Ransom	.228	.300	.410	70	455	.153	61	-60
Berroa	.246	.290	.354	57	463	.123	49	-71

BR/650: Batting runs by linear weights pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
Outs/650: Outs per 650 PA (PA x (1 - OBP))
BR/Out: Batting runs per out
BR/400 Outs: Battings runs for every 400 outs
Downgrade: Downgrade in runs (divide by 10 to convert to wins)

We don't really have adequate data to look at the defensive side of this, but it probably isn't more than a handful of runs in either direction. However, the offensive downgrade is huge. Somewhere in the six to seven win area over a full season. Figure a win lost for every month that Rodriguez can't play.

Since we all know he's so unclutch, in actuality the Yankees will probably end up better without him. And if you believe that, you shouldn't be reading this blog because you're an f'ing idiot.

Until we know how manageable this is, it's probably not worth flipping out about it, but it definitely doesn't sound good.

--Posted at 5:23 pm by SG / 51 Comments | - (234)

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