Tuesday, November 10, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Brett Gardner
While we've apparently already kind of moved into off-season mode, I'm going to try and do a quick retrospective on the key players for the 2009 Yankees, which also should also help us think about what we should expect from them going forward where applicable.Since we've started talking about Brett Gardner in the prior thread, I'll start off with him.
Despite putting up respectable numbers in the minors, particularly in terms of OBP, there was a lot of concern about how Gardner's game would translate in the majors. If you looked at the track record of players similar to Gardner(high OBP, low SLG, high K rate) it was a somewhat valid concern.
So here's a look at Gardner's 2009 projections, pro-rated to what his actual PAs ended up being.
| brett gardner | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 284 | 252 | 65 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 31 | 59 | .258 | .341 | .345 | 73 | .305 | .247 | .276 | .334 | .364 | 98.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 284 | 253 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 22 | 52 | .257 | .311 | .386 | 74 | .295 | .237 | .266 | .324 | .352 | 94.9% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 284 | 245 | 62 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 5 | 31 | 56 | .253 | .334 | .351 | 72 | .300 | .242 | .271 | .329 | .359 | 96.8% |
| 2009 tht projection | 284 | 251 | 63 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 31 | 54 | .251 | .338 | .349 | 74 | .305 | .247 | .276 | .334 | .364 | 98.3% |
| 2009 zips projection | 284 | 253 | 63 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 30 | 57 | .249 | .331 | .321 | 69 | .294 | .236 | .265 | .323 | .352 | 94.7% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 284 | 252 | 64 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 31 | 56 | .254 | .338 | .334 | 69 | .301 | .243 | .272 | .331 | .360 | 97.1% |
| 2009 bill james projection | 284 | 249 | 69 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 6 | 35 | 45 | .277 | .365 | .375 | 86 | .328 | .268 | .298 | .358 | .388 | 105.7% |
| 2009 average projection | 284 | 251 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 29 | 56 | .254 | .332 | .348 | 72 | .300 | .242 | .271 | .329 | .358 | 96.7% |
| 2009 actuals | 284 | 248 | 67 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 5 | 26 | 40 | .270 | .338 | .379 | 80 | .310 | .252 | .281 | .340 | .369 |
BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)
Aside from the Bill James projections, which were a little too bullish, the rest of the projections all missed low. The Hardball Times came the closest in terms of projected wOBA as a percentage of actual wOBA.
They were all generally low on the average, although with this type of playing time we're talking about a handful of hits. The biggest thing that I see here is that Gardner struck out 16 fewer times than his average projection expected, which meant more balls in play which surely meant a better chance of getting a few more hits. That he was able to do that while not walking much less than expected was a key factor in him being able to exceed his projected OBP.
Gardner hit for a little more power than expected, with an ISO (SLG - AVG) of .109 compared to a projected ISO of .097. He actually hit fewer doubles than projected, but made up for it with an extra 3B and an extra HR. DNYS suppressed non-HR extra base hits, which may have contributed to Gardner hitting a few less doubles than expected, but obviously when we're looking at the sample size we're looking at here, we shouldn't really make the assumption that Gardner blew away his projections. If a few batted balls had a different result his performance would have looked a lot different.
That being said, it's tough to consider Gardner's overall 2009 as anything but encouraging in my opinion. Yeah, he wasn't so good when he came back from injury or in the postseason, although his irregular playing time may have contributed to that. While his triple slash stats may or may not have benefited from some good fortune, if he can maintain the lower K rate without affecting the rest of the game, he has a good chance to hit for a decent enough average (.270-.280) or so to approach league average offensively (AL average CF has hit .269/.334/.410) over the last three seasons, especially if he sees a little uptick in his power as most players do moving from their mid to late 20s.
A league average CF is around two wins above replacement level if he's an average fielder and baserunner, but Gardner should be better than that in both areas, maybe +10 or +15 in total. You probably have to assume that he should not play full-time against lefties if he's going to maintain that type of rate of performance, but TSBG looks like an asset in CF, maybe 2.5-3 WAR if he can do what he did in 2009 over 500 PAs.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Fangraphs.com: Another Look at HRs at the New Yankee Stadium
Dave Allen at Fangraphs posted an article a couple days ago that looks at how the new outfield dimensions at the Stadium affect home runs. It seems that the general consensus now is that wind has little to do with the increase in long balls. Allen concludes that since the biggest increase in home runs coincides with the largest change in outfield fence dimensions, it is the fence that is responsible.
I’m not totally sold since wind currents might still increase home runs to one part of the park. Plus, without a full season of data, it is hard to make any conclusion just yet as to what is really responsible.
But it’s still an interesting study. Plus, there are some fun graphs for you to gaze upon.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Yankees.com: CC’s Yanks take what Mets give them
NEW YORK—The Yankees held their breath regarding the state of CC Sabathia’s tight left biceps, with manager Joe Girardi hoping no bad news would trickle back from the bullpen during pregame warmups.
He needn’t have worried. Sabathia came out just fine, retiring the first 12 batters he faced and even contributing a run-scoring single as the Yankees defeated the Mets, 9-1, on Friday in the first Subway Series game played at Citi Field.
Alex Rodriguez homered for the second successive game, belting a two-run shot off Elmer Dessens in the eighth inning—the 564th of his Major League career, moving him past Reggie Jackson for sole possession of 11th place on baseball’s all-time list.
Now what will Buster Olney write about?
Burnett should be able to out-pitch Tim Redding tomorrow. Hopefully the Yankees can knock him out of the game early so we won’t have to look at that furry animal attached to his chin.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Yanks inclined to lower $10M Pettitte offer
Andy Pettitte’s chances to return to the Yankees have dropped precipitously.
In the aftermath of the Mark Teixeira signing, the organization is now strongly inclined to lower the $10 million offer that the lefty already has been resistant to all offseason, the New York Post has learned.
Pettitte recently rejected the Yankees’ latest $10 million overture, and now - barring a wave of sentimentality by the Yanks or significant change of strategy by either side - that dollar figure very likely will not be offered again.
Perhaps Andy subscribes to the George Costanza style of negotiating.
Also of note:
The Yankees’ initial plan this offseason was to add Nick Swisher to play first, and then fixate on the rotation by signing two high-end starters (Sabathia and Burnett) and re-signing Pettitte to serve as a fifth starter. However, after meeting Teixeira in Washington on Dec. 4, Cashman became more intrigued with also obtaining the first baseman.
Ownership was initially resistant to making another huge monetary outlay. But once Cashman had convinced the Steinbrenner family of the short- and long-term benefits of signing Teixeira, the corresponding move was the need to cut elsewhere. That starts with a lower offer for Pettitte. The Yanks also might trade either Swisher or Xavier Nady, and it is possible if they could remove those salaries that they could consider restoring their bid to Pettitte at $10 million.
Apparently Olney and Rosenthal are saying the same thing.
Monday, September 22, 2008
ESPN: Buster Olney Blog - Yankee Stadium a True Treasure
A nice piece by Buster Olney, as he gets some different players’ memories of Yankee Stadium. Mark DeRosa’s memory about facing Mo is great.
Later that night with the game close, Joe Torre signaled for the bullpen. While I was on deck, Mariano Rivera jogged through the left-center wall, with “Enter Sandman” blasting, and I turned to find my father in the family section for a boost of confidence. He had his head in his hands knowing what the outcome would probably be. Needless to say, the at-bat didn’t take long. Although I struck out, it will still go down as one of the most memorable moments in my career.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
YESNetwork.com: Goldman - The great ongoing Joba debate
So there is the brief. The Yankees think that Joba can be an above-average starter, and it seems to me that given the outs that get absorbed in that role, that would be more valuable than limiting him to 80 innings in relief no matter how strong. The Yankees would be left with a deficit of 100 innings in the starting rotation that are likely to be filled by someone else, someone of lesser ability: Mike Mussina or an Ian Kennedy who has been figured out by the league. In a close race, those innings will make a great difference to the outcome.
Steve Goldman’s got a theory about how Joba should be used in 2008.
Monday, August 27, 2007
For love of the Moose?
I’m sure everyone reads the handsome Mr. Abraham daily, but this small post about Mike Mussina’s start tonight is great little piece of writing.
would imagine Mike Mussina has accomplished more as a baseball player than he ever hoped as a kid growing up in Pennsylvania.
He got a scholarship to Stanford, was a first-round draft pick and has made millions playing the game for two high-profile teams. At the very least, he is a player who Hall of Fame voters will have to give serious consideration to given his 247 wins, 2,648 strikeouts and 3.69 ERA in what will come to be known as the steroids era.
But none of that matters tonight.
For the first time since his rookie season in Baltimore in 1991, Mussina will be pitching to prove that he deserves another chance five days later.
Mustering up the arrogance of an elite athlete, he stood in the clubhouse the other day and mocked the idea of his being replaced. But if Mussina can’t get guys out, the Yankees owe it to themselves to see if somebody else can. Even if that somebody else is Kei Igawa or some kid.
[snip]
[H]e is a pitcher in the twilight, forced to figure out who he is and what he can do to get 18 hitters out.
The whole entry reminded me of this silly, guilty pleasure sports chick flick - “For Love of the Game.” It starred Kevin Costner (Natch.) and a bunch of nobodies, but the basic story was an aging pitcher (Costner) pitching for the Tigers against the Yankees in what might be his last start, throws a perfect game. Oh, and there’s some relationship nonsense too. But Vin Scully does the play-by-play for the game and has some crackerjack scripted lines that probably apply to Moose tonight.
After 19 years in the big leagues, 40 year old Billy Chapel 38-year-old Mike Mussina has trudged to the mound for over 4000 3,300 innings. But tonight, he’s pitching against time, he’s pitching against the future, against age, against ending. Tonight, he will make the fateful walk to the loneliest spot in the world, the pitching mound at Yankee Stadium Comerica Park, to push the sun back into the sky and give us one more day of summer.
I’ve always like the Moose, maybe more than most Yankee fans, my father in particular - who clings to the notion that Moose is prone to “spitting the bit” in big spots.
I don’t know if this pitcher still exists, but if he’s in there somewhere, now would be a good time to conjure him up.
Monday, April 2, 2007
Opening Day!!! (Liveblog): Tampa Bay Devil Rays (0-0) at New York Yankees (0-0) - 1:05 pm
Scott Kazmir (0-0, -.—) vs. Carl Pavano (0-0, -.—) (probable)
Man, am I excited about this. The one advantage of getting older is that the offseason doesn’t seem as long each year. The ONE advantage.
This is a team built for the regular season. With this lineup, they’ll win a lot of games even if the pitching is lousy, and the pitching shouldn’t be lousy. Unfortunately, it shouldn’t be great, either, which could hurt them in October. But by then, they might have Clemens, they might have Hughes, and they might have swung a trade for some other genuine stopper. Or maybe even somebody they already have could turn into a stopper. Let’s not forget that Carl Pavano gave up only one run in nine innings to the Yankees in the 2003 World Series. Hey, stranger things have happened.
I’ll be updating this post as the game goes on, so join in for some chatter in the thread. It’s a celebration, bitches!
Pregame: Buster Olney (who looks and sounds sort of like Patton Oswalt, except he’s not funny), just called Hank and Hal Steinbrenner “Hank and Hal Swindal”. Maybe this explains why Steve is getting divorced. (Do they allow gay bigamous marriage in Florida?
Top of the First: Here’s the first pitch from Pavano… and it’s a ball! That won’t get anyone on your side Carl…
Base hit to left on the third pitch. And ESPN showed Crawford running out of the box instead of the ball being put in play. Do we have FOX producers running the show at ESPN this year?
And right away Crawford steals second… this is an ominous beginning.
Pavano falls behind Zobrist but comes back and strikes him out swinging. Pavano seems to be working the outside corner today. If he can hit that spot he’ll do reasonably well.
Baldelli flies out to deep left. First deep fly of the year, I thought I was gonna have a heart attack. I guess I just have no confidence in Pavano.
A foul popup on the first pitch to Wigginton—Pavano’s gonna get out of this without a run! And A-Rod misses it! Yeah, that’s not gonna help him out, either.
BTW, why is TY WIGGINTON batting cleanup for the D-Rays? THAT’S not impressive. Well, Pavano gets out of it anyway with a tapper back to the mound. One inning down, no damage. Yet.
Bottom of the First: Damon comes up and takes three pitches before offering at anything, then bounces the fourth pitch through the right side. A good start there. The D-Rays have a good shot to win if Kazmir keeps his pitch count reasonable, so the Yanks need to work it.
Jeter’s up—he got robbed of the MVP last year, but I don’t think he’s going to repeat that performance this year. He pops out to right…
Abreu—I think HE’S gonna have a big year. There’s really no pressure on him here in NY, and I think the first half last year was something of a fluke. I see him hitting 25 homers again, with an OPS around .950. THAT’S not fair. He works the count to 2-2 after falling behind 0-2 and hits a single to left, setting up the first “clutch”-ish situation of the year for A-Rod.
And A-Rod gets a standing ovation! C’mon Alex, do something big.
Ever notice that when Abreu takes pitches for strikes he’s being patient, but when A-Rod does he’s choking?
I have a feeling that they’re going to take away that error on A-Rod after the game. Wait, it’s A-Rod, they probably won’t.
And A-Rod strikes out on a pitch off the plate that he probably shouldn’t have swung at…
And A-Rod gets booed! Jeez.
Giambi works the count to 3-1… and rips an RBI single to right-center! Kazmir is really throwing a lot of pitches this inning, and now the Yanks lead. So far this game is going well for everyone but A-Rod…
Now Godzilla has worked the count full on Kazmir… here comes his 30th pitch of the inning… and it’s ball four!
There’s Donald Trump in the owner’s box… he’s not bald. I guess he won that Wrestlemania thing. What a shock.
Posada pops up a 2-2 pitch to end the inning, but with two runs on the board and 35 pitches on Kazmir’s arm, that was a very good first inning. For everyone but A-Rod.
Top of the Second: Delmon Young pops up to right center on the first pitch for the first out. Things are going okay for Pavano so far, though I think a better lineup than this probably would have hit him so far.
Iwamura grounds out to short… and Jeter throws it in the dirt, and past Phelps. Well, I guess there’s someplace Mientkiewicz would help.
And for some reason ESPN shows A-Rod in the aftermath of the error. What the fuck?
Dioner Navarro runs the count full… and pops it up to Jeter.
This liveblogging stuff isn’t easy…
The D-Rays’ lineup isn’t really that scary, but looking at some of these kids, you get the impression that that is going to change soon. Dukes walks to bring up Upton, and Pavano is in a little trouble with two outs.
And Upton hits it PAST A DIVING JETER! First of the year! It’s now 2-1, but Crawford pops out to Damon on the first pitch, so the Yanks still lead.
Bottom of the Second: Kruk calls Robinson Cano a “young Bobby Abreu”. Well, which is it, a young Abreu, or a young Carew?
Cano strikes out on three pitches. He ain’t no Abreu.
Here’s Phelps, who I’m glad they picked up. We’ve already seen that his defense sucks, but if he can put up an .800+ OPS, I’ll take it. I’d rather see him out there than Mientkiewicz.
And he draws a walk. Patient, powerful, lousy defense. He fits right in here…
Damon pops the second pitch up in front of the plate for the second out. This inning isn’t going quite as well as the first. Still, Kazmir’s near 50 pitches already.
Jeter falls behind 0-2 and then gets nailed in the shin, so the Yanks have a little two-out rally working here. And Abreu dribbles a 1-1 pitch third to end it.
Top of the Third: Zobrist runs the count full but grounds out to Jeter. Another low throw, but Phelps digs this one out. Jetes is giving Phelps some practice over there today.
Baldelli pops up to Phelps… and limps back to the dugout. Wow, that’s the last thing the D-Rays need. Hopefully Pavano doesn’t start having empathy pains.
Wigginton grounds out to A-Rod, and the third is over quickly and painlessly. Here comes A-Rod to lead off the third…
Bottom of the Third: A-Rod hacks away this time and quickly falls behind 0-2. And he strikes out on a check swing—but they don’t call it a swing. But he grounds out to short anyway.
Kazmir is looking a lot better than he did in the first, which really isn’t surprising, getting ahead of Giambi now 0-2, and the sets him down looking on a 1-2 at the knees. Think the Mets wish they still had this guy?
Godzilla ground out to first on the second pitch, and that’s it for the third.
Heh.
Top of the Fourth: Pavano is over 50 pitches already, so he’s not going to go deep today. He’s looked okay so far. He strikes out Young here, and there’s one away.
Well, he doesn’t look so good there, walking Iwamura on four pitches… but he gets out of it with a first-pitch double play to short.
Bottom of the Fourth: Posada leads off the fourth with a homer to right-center, and the Yanks lead 3-1! Jorge’s 36 in August, so he’s going to be slowing down at some point—probably around August—but he’s still got a big bat.
I’m surprised they didn’t give him a curtain call. 
Cano flies out to left for the first out.
Olney’s in the booth for ESPN now saying that fans are gonna chant “opt out now!” if he struggles. He said that in the pregame, too. Ahahahaha, Buster, you’d so clever!
Phelps walks on five pitches again… boy does he fit in well.
Now Damon walks… man, I love this lineup.
Jeter strikes out looking on a borderline pitch. The fans boo the ump, but if A-Rod had taken that, they’d be booing him. Just sayin’.
Abreu grounds out to first to end the inning, sparing A-Rod more boos if he makes an out. And if he hit a homer, they would have forgotten it fifteen minutes later anyway.
Top of the Fifth: Elijah Dukes crushes his first major league homer to dead center to lead off the inning. This kid has great power, I didn’t think that one was gonna go when he first hit it.
And B.J. Upton rips a single to left… uh-oh. Carl may implode here.
And now Upton is at second… D-Rays can tie the game without a hit now.
Crawford ties it with a single… and they get him caught in a rundown… but Phelps throws it into the outfield! Yikes. This isn’t so good.
Zobrist bunts it… but it bounces up and hits him—AND he was standing on home plate when he hit it. He gets called out for ONE of those things.
Crawford nearly gets picked off at second. That was close.
And now Baldelli singles to left to give the Rays the lead. Crap, there’s the Pavano we all think we vaguely remembered. And there he goes.
Pavano gets some boos as he leaves, but he didn’t really pitch that badly. He just wasn’t that good. He does get some applause, too.
I’d like to take this opportunity to give a shout out to Chrissy, the official hot babe of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. No real reason, I was just chatting with her on AIM.
Brian Bruney comes in and strikes out Wigginton, but lets Baldelli steal second while doing it. And Young singles to left to drive him home… this has been a horrible inning.
Young tries to steal, but Posada finally get someone out, and the inning is over at last. The Yanks can make up two runs, but man, that shouldn’t have happened.
Bottom of the Fifth: A-Rod flies out to right to lead off the inning. Giambi bounces out to Kazmir. Not good.
Matsui strikes out to end the inning. That was weak.
Top of the Sixth: We seem to having some server problems now. Yay.
I’m going to check that out right now… the liveblog can wait.
Well, that seems to have only been a hiccup. Things seem to be okay for now. We’ll have to keep an eye on that.
Sean Henn comes in and does a decent job, and keeps the score 5-3. It’s starting to get to crunch time—hopefully this is Kazmir’s last inning.
Bottom of the Sixth: Melky came in for Damon in the top of the sixth. I dunno why, but that can’t be good.
Posada works the count full, and rips a single to left to lead off the inning. Kazmir is over 100 pitches now, so Cano might be his last batter.
Robby nearly swings at the first pitch, which also nearly hits him.
Update on Damon: cramps in his calf. Well, you don’t wanna take any chances there. Melky can handle leading off and center just fine.
Robby singles to right, so this could be the rally they need. That’s it for Kazmir, and in comes Shawn Camp. Tampa Bay has a lousy bullpen, so the Yankees better hit them.
Server problem: The problem seems to be with our hosting service, whose homepage is also down. Hopefully this won’t be an ongoing problem.
Eyechart comes up and lays down a sac bunt, then Melky gets hit with the first pitch, and Jeter runs the count to 3-1 with the bases loaded. A base hit to center ties the game at 5, which makes up for that error earlier.
On a personal note, there’s a girl with a nice ass outside of my window.
Maddon goes the pen again. This could be a big inning.
Top of the Seventh: Not sure where Larry went, so I’ll take over. -SG
Vizcaino’s first regular season inning as Yankee goes well. 3 up, 3 down. You can feel the trust building already.
Bottom of the Seventh: While Larry chases down the girl with the nice ass, Alex Rodriguez leads off the bottom of the seventh with a “single” that should have been fielded by Ben Zobrist.
Giambi up…
Rodriguez with an unclutch steal of second base.
And Giambi drives him in with the single between the second base bag and the second baseman. 6-5 Yanks.
Posada lines out to RF, and Delmon Young makes a sick throw in and almost doubles Giambi off first.
Robinson Cano batting, and he pops up to BJ Upton for the third out. Top of the eighth coming up. Will it be Proctor or Farnsworth coming in?
Top of the Eighth:
And it’s Farnsworth. When else would you expect the Eighth Inning Guy™ to pitch?
Is Farnsworth throwing a splitter now? The pitch to fan Baldelli was a 92 mph pitch with nasty downward drop.
A single is followed by a popup to Cano. Two down, Wigginton on first. Farnsworth looks like he’s got good command today.
And Farnsworth gets out of the inning with a grounder, 4-3.
Bottom of the Eighth:
Mariano’s warming in the pen. Ruddy Lugo in for Tampa, facing Doug Mientkiewicz. Mientkiewicz absolutely crushes one about 20 feet, but BJ Upton can’t pick it cleanly.
And Melky sacrifices Mientkiewicz to second. I think that’s smart. When you’re facing a bullpen like the Devil Rays, you have to try and score by any means necessary.
Jeter up, new pitcher coming in for Tampa. I’m sure whoever it is is awesome. He is Juan Salas.
Jeter grounds out and the crowd showers him with boos for failing to come through in the clutch. Let’s see if Abreu can pick him up.
Bobby Abreu is so freaking awesome. He singles in Mientkiewicz, Yanks 7, D-Rays 5. Metallica’s tuning up in the garage.
And with the game already well in hand, A-Rod hits a meaningless HR. Yanks 9, Rays 5.
Giambi flies out to center. To the ninth we go… Will it be Mo or Rasner?
Top of the Ninth:
Exit light.
and Mo Ks his first opposing hitter of 2007 on four pitches. He’s hitting 95.
Call him bus driver because he’s taking the D-Rays to school. Two up, two down, both on Ks.
YES gun may be fast, but they’ve got Mo at 97.
And he Ks the side. Yanks win on opening day. Yay!
Friday, September 15, 2006
The Meaningless Series with the Red Sox
With last night’s 7-4 win over Tampa Bay, the Yankees have won six straight games for the first time all season. In doing so, they also lowered their magic number for the AL East to six, which means that if they can take three of four against the Red Sox over the weekend, they can clinch the division against Boston at home, which would be pretty sweet.
Jeff Karstens was decent, aside from when he was facing Rocco Baldelli. I still don’t think Karstens has the makings of much more than a swingman or possible fifth starter, his stuff just seems short, but I love the fact that he is a strike-throwing machine and works quickly. Darrell Rasner relieved him to start the sixth, and was outstanding, throwing four innings and allowing only one hit, with five strikeouts. With Cory Lidle struggling, a case could be made for Rasner over Lidle on the postseason roster if Jaret Wright pitches decently over the rest of the season and claims the fourth starter spot in the playoffs.
The Yankees are in great shape heading into this series with the Red Sox. Even if they were to somehow get swept, they’d still have an 8 game lead in the loss column with 13 games to play. By moving Chien-Ming Wang’s start to tonight, they get to throw their three top starters at Boston.
Your matchups for the weekend:
Saturday: Game 1 - 1:20 PM ET
J. Beckett (14-10, 5.09) vs. C. Wang (17-5, 3.60)
Saturday: Game 2 - 8:05 PM ET
J. Tavárez (3-4, 4.74) vs. J. Wright (10-7, 4.60)
Sunday: Game 1 - 1:05 PM ET
K. Snyder (4-4, 6.54) vs. R. Johnson (17-10, 4.84)
Sunday: Game 2 - 8:05 PM ET
K. Gabbard (1-3, 3.13) vs. M. Mussina (14-6, 3.59)
Jorge Posada’s bruised up, the result of a HBP off his elbow. He’s listed as day-to-day. In better news, Mariano Rivera appears to be progressing and will probably throw a bullpen session this weekend. If that goes well he could see game action next week. I haven’t seen or read anything on Gary Sheffield, so I’d imagine he won’t be back over the weekend either.
Alex Belth brought this up on Bronx Banter yesterday, but tonight will be Jim Kaat’s last game as an announcer, as he’s announced his retirement. I think Kaat is a great broadcaster. He’s fair, impartial, not afraid to criticize, and knows as much about the physical aspects of pitching as anyone. Yeah, he’s a bit old-school at times, and some of his rants about pitch counts and Moneyball may be annoying at times, but I’ve always thought that paled in comparison to the good stuff he brought to the announcer’s booth every night. The man played for 25 years and had an amazing power of recall, able to remember intricate details of games from 40 years ago. I wish him the best in his retirement, and will miss him.
Monday, June 9, 2003
Soriano
On April 27th, on the second pitch of the ballgame against the Texas Rangers, Alfonso Soriano peaked. Hit by an errant Chan Ho Park pitch, Soriano’s rate stats had all reached levels they had not been at since the first ten games of the season, when rate stats are always ridiculous—.389/.448/.699.
Just before the game started, Sean Forman wrote:
If you are like me, you check the box score every day hoping for the satisfaction of seeing a big, fat 0 for 5 next to Alfonso Soriano’s name. Instead, Peter Gammons is proven more and more right with each passing series. If it were going to be easy to get Soriano out chasing bad pitches (call it the Samuel Theory), it would have happened by now and he would be hitting .260 with a .290 OBP.
And yes, this is the thinly veiled attempt of a Red Sox fan to jinx him.
Two days earlier, fellow blogger Aaron Gleeman wrote:
I still say a guy can’t walk once a month, strike out 150 times a year and hit like Soriano does. Of course, I just said “and hit like Soriano DOES,” so I guess maybe I should start believing it, huh?
And a few days later, some twit wrote his own idiotic theory about why Soriano was doing well, and created a crappy blog to publish the idiotic theory.
Well, since trotting down to first that afternoon, Soriano has batted .238/.294/.457.
Interestingly, another ballplayer noted for their poor plate discipline was having an outstanding season through the games of April 26th last season, too. Batting .342/.391/.620, the player was not as good as Soriano, but as the season went on, he alternated between hot and cold streaks, the cold streaks outweighed the hot ones, and he finished with a respectable .293/.330/.459. Just like Alfonso Soriano, people looked at Shea Hillenbrand through the first few weeks of the season and insisted that he defied the sabermetric theories of plate discipline. But once again, the defiant player has come back to reality.
Alfonso Soriano is a fantastically talented player, perhaps one of the most unique players in baseball history. His tremendous talent has made him a very good player despite his lack of plate discipline, because when he does hit, he hits the ball well. But he does not defy sabermetric theory.
Coincidentally, the game in which Soriano peaked was the same game where the Yankees peaked. 20-4 at that point, the Yankees took a 5-4 lead into the bottom of the 5th. Three outs later, they trailed 9-5, and since that day, they’ve gone 15-23. Of course, this is all Derek Jeter’s fault, not Soriano’s, but it’s an interesting parallel.
Oh, by the way, I really do hate the Devils. Almost as much as the Red Sox.
Friday, May 2, 2003
YESNetwork.com - The Pinstriped Bible
More gold from Goldman. My favorite passage:
The year of illusory improvement materialized because the team enjoyed six months of clutch hitting, singles falling in at the right time, or shortstops spontaneously exploding into a million gooey pieces just as they were about to catch the game-ending line drive. Everyone runs onto the field and enjoys a squishy high five, not realizing that shortstops don’t detonate every day, that it’s not something that the team earned so much as it just happened, that you can’t plan for it and can’t depend on it.
Wednesday, April 30, 2003
Alfonso Soriano - The Exception To The Rule?
Guys who don’t draw walks and strike out a lot usually don’t have a very high batting average. This is because a low walk total and high strikeout total are indicative of a overly agressive batter, who swings at everything. Before long, pitchers figure that out and stop throwing them strikes. Either the batter starts to draw walks, or they start to make a lot of outs.
Alfonso Soriano batted .300 last season. So far this season, he’s been batting over .370. Many statheads are starting to concede that Soriano is an exception to the rule—a “Freak of Nature” as Aaron Gleeman dubbed him last week. Maybe. Maybe it’s still April, too. More importantly, simply saying that Soriano is an exception is not good sabermetrics (Yeah, like I would know what good sabermetrics is—but it’s not good science). If the rules don’t apply to Soriano, you have to find out why he’s different, and maybe that the rules are—*GASP!*—wrong!
Not that I’m saying they are. But then, there’s Soriano, hitting in the upper .300’s, crushing balls over the wall. Maybe it’s the fact that he’s facing lesser pitchers, and we should wait until the Yankees are done with Seattle and Oakland to make a judgement, or even until the end of the season. Some have said that it’s because he’s batting leadoff, and getting better pitches to hit, though that would require discarding another sabermetric theory—that protection doesn’t matter.
Here’s my crackpot theory. Feel free to disregard it.
It’s the bat.
No, it’s not corked. Well, probably not. But that’s not my point. I think it’s too heavy.
See, my theory goes like this. Because of the extra weight of his bat, Soriano needs to start his swing a little earlier, and has less time to recognize a pitch. So, he gets fooled sometimes by the movement of a pitch, and swings through a ball in the strike zone, or a ball that drops out of it. Further, he swings at anything in the strike zone, since, like Vlad Guerrero, he can crush anything in the strike zone. Thus the low walks, thus the high strikeouts without fishing for stuff in the dirt. The way to get Soriano out is not to throw him lousy pitches, but to throw him great pitches. Of course, that’s how to get everyone out, which is why Soriano isn’t more prone to extended slumps than anyone else.
A lighter bat would probably cut back on his strikeouts with this theory, but not increase his walks. That would take a change of approach. And he really does need to change his approach, because as great as he has been, his value has been limited by the fact that he makes so many outs. An approach at the plate more like Barry Bonds (or at least Jason Giambi, although he’s not a good example thus far, what with his slump), would not only lead to more walks, but better pitches to hit. That’s a nice thought.
In other news, the Yankees beat the Mariners tonight, but almost blew it in the 8th because they insisted on using Acevedo and Hammond rather than bringing in Mariano Rivera. Yes, I understand that it’s Rivera’s first game back, so you might not trust him quite as much in a situation with runners on base as you normally would, but this is exactly what Bill James is talking about. You bring in your ace reliever with a four-run lead in the ninth, and leave your lesser relievers to get you out of a bases-loaded jam with a one-run lead in the eighth. How does that make any sense?
In a related story, the Red Sox have blown only one ninth-inning lead this season. The problem with the Sox’s pen is the pitchers, not the system.
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