Thursday, March 29, 2007

Looking Ahead to 2007: The Yankee Bullpen

Opening Day is less than just around the corner, so it’s time to wrap up my 2007 Yankees previews with a look at the Yankee bullpen.  Last year, Yankee relievers pitched a total of 510 innings, and ended up being about 3 runs above average collectively as a group.  The bulk of that was the performance of the incomparable Mariano Rivera and Scott Proctor finally getting results that matched his talent.

This year’s collection of bullpen arms has quite a bit of promise, but just like it has since 1996, it starts with The Sandman.

Mariano Rivera had another outstanding season in a career full of outstanding seasons.  Over the last four seasons, Rivera’s ERA has not topped 2.  In 303 innings, he has an ERA of 1.69.  There were two minor issues in 2006 that might be of some concern going forward.  The first was a drop in his K rate.  Rivera’s K rate dropped from 80 in 78.3 innings in 2005 to 55 in 75 innings.  Rivera’s K rate has fluctuated throughout his career, so I don’t think is a huge issue. 

The other issue was some elbow soreness that he had at the tail end of the season.  Rivera eventually recovered after some time off and pitched well at the end of the season, and so far this spring he’s been outstanding, so this is also a minor concern.

Rivera is difficult to project accurately. Projection systems are designed to work with the aggregrate population of baseball players, but Rivera is unique.  He’s consistently outperformed the league with regards to his batting average against on balls in play.  He controls the HR better than most pitchers when you compare his ratio of HRs/flyball to other pitchers.

Rivera’s projections for 2007 are still solid.

Rivera’s 2006 was worth 23 runs above average.  Most of the projection systems predict a falloff(except ZiPS), but as I stated above that’s at least partly because of how hard it is to predict someone like Rivera.  That being said, Mo is 37, and at some point he’s going to start slowing down.

This spring, camp started with noise about Rivera testing free agency.  Part of that was surely the emotional response to seeing Bernie Williams not being brought back.  With his new changeup, and playing for his next and perhaps final contract, I think Rivera is primed for yet another excellent season.  If that happens, the Yankees will pay him what he is worth, and hopefully we’ll get to see Rivera closing games in the new Yankee Stadium.

In 2006, Kyle Farnsworth showed why he drove Cubs fans nuts for years.  When Farnsworth is on his game, you wonder how anyone ever hits him.  Unfortunately, too often he was either not on his game, or fighting a balky back and unable to pitch.  Farnsworth still delivered one of the most enjoyable moments of the season, when he worked out of a bases loaded jam (induced by his own crappy control) to catch David Ortiz looking at a full count slider with two outs and the bases loaded and the Yankees up by two in Fenway.

Farnsworth’s not a lights-out reliever like Tom Gordon was.  He’ll have his moments, good and bad, and may not be the primary setup man in 2007 depending on how the people behind end up performing.  Here are Farnsworth’s projections for 2007.

Last year, Farnsworth’s 4.64 RA was exactly average for a reliever, so he was average overall.  Farnsworth projects to be a bit better than that this year.  He has the talent to be even better than that, and the inconsistency to be worse.  Like most Yankee fans, I’ll be holding my breath whenever he comes in.

One of the biggest stories of 2006 had to be the emergence of Scott Proctor.  Acquired in the Robin Ventura trade of 2003, Proctor has always had a good fastball, but bad command and mediocre secondary pitches had led to him being tatooed in the Yankee pen in 2004 and 2005.  Proctor wasn’t expected to make the team out of spring training until injuries got him on the roster.  After a rough debut, losing a game in Oakland, Proctor became one of the most valuable Yankee relievers.  He pitched often, and pitched well.  Like many, I felt he was being overused, and I also felt he was pitching over his head.  However, he actually improved as the season went on.

Last year was way out of line from everything in Proctor’s prior performance history, which is reflected in his 2007 projections.

Projecting pitchers is often an exercise in futility.  In the case of someone like Proctor, it’s tough to know how much of last year was a fluke, and how much of it was a genuine change in his talent/ability.  We won’t know that until we see more.  Proctor’s looked outstanding this spring, and I’m starting to think he’s at least somewhat for real.  Even if he falls back towards his projections, he should be a useful part of the pen in 2007.

Luis Vizcaino seems like a decent middle reliever, but I doubt he’ll be much more than that.  Historically, he’s exhibited a reverse platoon split.
vs LH: .229/.310/.400
vs RH: .249/.321/.427

He projects to be around average, which is fine.

I can’t shake this feeling that Vizcaino = Felix Rodriguez, but hopefully it turns out better than that.

Mike Myers was supposed to be the Yankees’ answer to David Ortiz.  Not only did that not work out, but Myers was actually better against righties last year.  There’s a lot of noise in a single year’s splits, so I’d expect Myers to revert to form this year.

When projecting Myers, you have to remember that he’s a tactical option, and shouldn’t really be assessed in terms of his overall production towards preventing runs.  Myers is in the last year of a two year deal, and I’d imagine that if he doesn’t do the one thing he was brought in to do early on, he may get buried in the back of the pen or even released.

Brian Bruney throws gas.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t often go where he wants it to go.  Bruney’s still pretty young, and has been pretty nasty this spring, fanning 14 in seven innings, with just two walks to go with it.  His control keeps him from projecting very well.

Bruney’s the wild card in the pen to me.  He could end up being the second best reliever in the pen if it clicks for him.  Even if it doesn’t, there’s nothing wrong with having inconsistent guys who can strike people out around in the pen.  If I had to pick one guy who could blow his projections away on the pitching staff this year, it’d be Bruney.

Ron Villone may or may not be a Yankee this year.  Most of you know the deal with Villone.  Great first half, horrible second half.  Whether it was overuse or regressing back towards his mean, the real Villone is probably somewhere in the middle.  I don’t think Villone has any upside, but you could do worse with a long reliever/mop up guy.

Villone’s looked lousy this spring.  He may not have anything left. 

If Villone doesn’t make the Yankees, it’ll likely be because Sean Henn does.  Henn’s been in the Yankee organization for what seems like decades, and has been fighting his way back from a pretty severe arm injury and surgery a few years ago.  Henn used to deal in the high 90s, but now he’s more of a lows 90s guy.  He hasn’t impressed in his brief major league stints, but a move to the pen may end up helping him find his niche.

Henn doesn’t project as well as Villone for 2007, but sometimes you have to balance the needs of the present with planning for the future.  Is the .5 difference in projected ERA really worth not finding out what you have in Henn for future?  Henn will be 26 in April, it’s probably time to give him a shot or let him go.  With the news that he has a fourth option year, he also gives the Yankees roster flexibility, something that has often been an issue for the team.

The Yankees used the theory of sunk cost to acquire Chris Britton from the Orioles after picking up the option on Jaret Wright’s 2007 contract.  Britton had a decent season with Baltimore last year, but I have this nagging concern that Orioles fans didn’t seem to care that he got traded.  He’s not a particularly hard-thrower, but works in the low 90s, and looks like he’ll start the year in the minors after a shaky spring.  He should get some innings this year and projects pretty well if he does.

Britton’s struggled this spring, which has helped make the decision to farm him out easier.

Although he may start his season in the rotation, I’m listing Jeff Karstens in the bullpen since if all goes well, he’ll be a long relief candidate.  That’s not a slight on Karstens, but if the Yankees plans go well, he’s just not as likely to be good as any of the projected starting five.

Karstens looked much better than the guy who finished 2006 this spring until his last two starts.  He had better velocity (91-92 on his fastball, compared to high 80s last year), seemed to have a sharper hook, and he was getting more grounders.  While I think making judgements based on spring training stats is not smart, visual observations of players (especially pitchers) can be pretty useful.  I like Karstens a lot more this year than I did last year, and it’s primarily because his stuff now looks like it’s major league quality.  The elbow issue he’s having now complicates any assessment of him. 

It’s tough to know if the Karstens we saw most of the spring just reverted to form recently, or if the stiff elbow was to blame.  His projections seem harsh, but Karstens did have a 4.28 ERA in AAA last year, although he was outstanding after a rough start. I think Karstens will be useful reliever/spot starter this year, and am cautiously optimistic that he will exceed his projections.

Last on the list, Darrell Rasner.  See Jeff Karstens.  As far as I’m concerned, they’re basically interchangeable, and will probably get moved up and down as needed all year.

Rasner projects a bit better than Karstens, but Karstens seems to have the organization’s attention more than Rasner.

So what do all the numbers and projections mean? Here’s a comparison of last year’s pitching staff to this year’s projections.  I adjusted the innings totals of some of the pitchers to try and make them line up with last year.

Despite pessimistic projections for Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina relative to last season, improved depth replacing some really bad contributions by Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon, and others should put the team in a position to end up with a better overall pitching staff.  The rotation isn’t spectacular, but it should be solid enough to get through the regular season.  Whether they’ll be pitching well when October starts is the $190 million question.

Link to all projections.

So, with all the previewing out of the way, let’s see where the Yankees end up.  When I looked at the Yankee bench I summed up the projections for the position players on offense and defense.  They came out to 142 runs above average on offense, and 32 runs below average on defense.  Add in the pitching staff’s projected 44 runs above average, and the team ends up at 156 runs above average. 

So they project to be about 16 wins above an average team, or a 97 win team overall.  You can knock off a couple of wins if you want to add in some more replacement level pitching, but this is still a damn good team.  If Phil Hughes and/or Roger Clemens replace some of the worse innings in the projections above, they could be even better than that.  Should be a fun season, and it’s only three days away.

Cheap Plug Alert:  I wrote an article for the Hardball Times previewing five questions that will tell the tale of the Yankees in 2007.

Breaking News: Abraham - Yankees Set Roster  From Peter Abraham’s great Yankee blog:

LHP Sean Henn, C Wil Nieves and 1B Josh Phelps are on the team.

No word on yet on the No. 5 starter other than that

RHP Jeff Karstens is headed to the DL.

NJ.com - Yankees: Phelps’ chance has come, but Villone may go

TAMPA, Fla.—Josh Phelps has apparently won a spot on the Yankees roster.  Andy Phillips, who had been competing with Phelps to platoon at first base with Doug Mientkiewicz, yesterday was placed on outright waivers. The move (which was revealed by a major-league official who asked not to be identified because waivers are confidential)
means that by tomorrow Phillips will be claimed by another team or sent to the minors by the Yankees.  Meanwhile, lefty reliever Ron Villone might have clinched his fate last night by failing to retire any of the three men he faced in a 12-2 loss to the Houston Astros.

The roster is tightening up.  While I’m happy to see Phelps make the team, I do feel for Andy Phillips.  I hope Phillips does get claimed and gets a chance to play in the majors somewhere.  I still think he may have a chance at being a productive player, but I don’t the Yankees are in the position to wait for it to happen. 

Ron Villone looks shot.  It would seem that Sean Henn’s going to get the spot that was supposed to go to Villone, and I think that’s a good move as well.

I’ll wrap up the looking ahead pieces with the bullpen tomorrow.

--Posted at 8:07 am by SG / 4 Comments | No Trackbacks - (250)

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Friday, December 8, 2006

Yankees.com - Villone declines Yanks’ arbitration offer

  Ron Villone declined the Yankees’ arbitration offer Thursday, leaving the left-hander available on the free-agent market.

  Villone, who returned Thursday from a 12-day vacation in Italy, spoke with his agent, Scott Boras, before making his decision. Villone has drawn interest from five or six teams, several of which may be willing to give the reliever a two-year contract.

I wouldn’t mind bringing Villone back for one year, but if he can get a better offer somewhere the Yankees get a sandwich pick in the draft. That’s good, but it then puts them in a position where they’re going to need to get a second lefty for the pen, unless they think Sean Henn can do the job (which I think is pretty unlikely).

No news on Andy Pettitte, or the exciting hunt for a backup catcher and utility infielder. The Yankees did make some news when they selected Josh Phelps in the Rule 5 draft. Phelps had a solid season in AAA Toledo this year, hitting .308/.370/.532. His ZiPS projection for 2007 is .279/.338/.486. Unfortunately, Phelps is a butcher with the glove. He’s played only 31 games at 1B in his career, and has a career zone rating of .744. That is actually better than Jason Giambi’s .722 last year, but would equate to about a -18 over a full season. He probably doesn’t replace Andy Phillips on the roster, but he could be useful as a backup DH against lefties and an occasional game at 1B. He does have a background as a catcher, although he hasn’t played there in years so that’s probably not a viable option for him either.

One interesting name did pop up yesterday as a potential backup catcher. Jim Leyritz is talking about making a comeback. He’ll be 42 and hasn’t played in six years. In this market that’s probably worth $4 million.

--Posted at 8:31 am by SG / No Comments | No Trackbacks - (141)

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Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Run Values of the 2006 Yankees

With the Yankees’ 2006 season at its end, I wanted to take one last look back at the contributions of everyone who wore pinstripes this season.  I posted the details of a lot of these calculations in this entry a while back, so if you want more background you can check that out.
First up, the offense.



Next up, the defense.



Lastly, the pitching.



Add it all up, and here’s the sum total of everyone’s contributions to the Yankees in 2006.



Do these numbers make sense? The Yankees were 167 runs better than an average team, or 16.7 wins better.  Add 16.7 wins to an 81 win team, you get a 97.8 win team.  I guess they do.

In other Yankee news, Joe Torre is staying.

--Posted at 10:55 am by SG / No Comments | 6 Trackbacks - (301)

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Monday, October 2, 2006

ALDS Preview - Tigers vs. Yankees

It’s ALDS preview time, as the Yankees will be taking on Detroit Tuesday night on FOX at 8 PM.
First up, here is a look at the position players on the 25 man playoff rosters.  As I am wont to do, I’m using linear weights for offense and zone rating converted to runs for defense.  BR is the player’s total output above/below average on the season compared to others listed at the same position.  DR are the defensive runs above/below average.  For the bench players who played multiple positions, I’ve combined all their defensive numbers.



I’ve combined the lines for players who played for multiple teams.  I’ve removed the defensive stats of Marcus Thames and Jason Giambi as their primary roles will be as DH.  Matt Stairs was acquired post Sept 1 so I don’t think he can be on the Tigers’ post-season roster.

As you can see from this list, Detroit’s is a much better defensive team than the Yankees, but overall they’re not on the same level.  The Yankees have the edge on a per game basis at C, 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF, and DH, and the difference between Derek Jeter and Carlos Guillen is basically negligible.  They Yankees have 8 of the top 9 players as far as total run value per game (based on this season’s performance).

The Tigers’ starting nine hit .280/.337/.458 compared to a league average of .275/.338/.437.  It should be noted that they play in a pitcher’s park, so this is not a bad overall line for them.  As a team overall, their season OPS was 100, or exactly league average.  The starting nine put up an OPS of around 105.  That’s around what Mike Lowell hit this season.

On the Tigers bench, they don’t pack much offensive punch, although Chris Shelton may get a start against Randy Johnson in Game 3.

The Yankees’ starting nine hit .299/.392/.499, which is the equivalent of an OPS of 129.  That’s around what Miguel Tejada had, with a bit less batting average and bit more OBP.

The Yankee bench isn’t too bad this season for once, although I’m not sure how much time they’ll get.  Bernie would seem to be a good pinch-hitter against a lefty, but which lefty do you pinch hit for?  Melky Cabrera will be there to back up all three OF and perhaps to spot Matsui for defense late in games.  That is the right role for him.  Matsui is right now the clearly superior player. Miguel Cairo will mainly just be around in case of an emergency, and I’d guess we’ll see Andy Phillips replacing Sheffield in the 8th and 9th innings for defense.  Hopefully, Sal Fasano doesn’t get an AB.

On paper, it’s a pretty clear position player edge for the Yanks.

Of course, there’s the matter of pitching.  First, a look at the starters.  I’m using linear weights for the pitchers as well.



One thing about the chart above, I’m only using the pitchers’ numbers as starters.

In Game 1, the Yankees seem to have a fairly good-sized edge.  Chien-Ming Wang has been better than Nate Robertson in most measures this season except for strikeout rate.  His ERC (component ERA) also indicates that his success to this point hasn’t been fluky.  I remain concerned about Wang’s workload on the season, as he’s thrown 218 innings this season after never topping 160 prior to this year, but I think/hope he’ll be fine.

Robertson’s a pretty good pitcher, and a fellow blogger, so I have a soft spot for him.  Being left-handed is a slight advantage for him facing Abreu, Giambi, Cano, and Damon.  I think he’ll pitch reasonably well, but I doubt he’ll shut the Yankees down completely or anything.

Game 2 seems like a very big edge for the Yankees by the numbers, but you never know with rookie pitchers that throw 100 mph.  Justin Verlander’s been solid for Detroit, and was rated as the AL starter with the highest average fastball velocity this season by Basebll Info Solutions.  Fatigue seems to have caught up with him a bit recently, and Jim Leyland had him skip a start to rest him a bit.  He has the stuff to dominate, although his BB rate is a touch below average which would seem to be a benefit for the Yankees.

Mike Mussina started the season out great, but has faltered a bit lately.  He typically pitches well in the postseason, and his last start was very impressive (particularly his velocity, which was up to 91-92).  I think Moose will be fine.

Game 3 is about as big of a tossup as you can get.  Kenny Rogers didn’t face the Yankees this season, but had a solid season, and amazingly did not push any cameramen.  He’s a lefty nibbler who has had pretty good control and a good HR rate but doesn’t have much stuff.  I think the Yankees could light him up.

Unfortunately, with Randy Johnson opposing him, they may have to.  Johnson’s got a herniated disk and had an epidural to relieve the pain he was feeling.  In some ways, the fact that there is a physical explanation for Johnson’s recent struggles is encouraging.  The problem is if the epidural was done too late to rectify it.  Johnson supposedly had a good BP session and is on target to pitch this game.  He could be great, or he could be shelled.  Hopefully the Yanks are up 2-0 when he pitches.

Johnson’s had an odd season.  If you look at his component ERA (3.80), he’s been solid.  The problem he’s had is the hits and walks and HRs he’s allowed have not come scattered, but tend to come in bunches, something ignored when looking a pitcher’s peripherals.  This is very likely a manifestation of his health issues, and probably likely to continue.

If Game 4 is needed, it’ll be Jeremy Bonderman vs. Jaret Wright.  If Game 4 is needed, the Yankees may be in trouble.  Bonderman’s another guy with a lot of talent who has tired in the season’s homestretch, but he’s a lot better than Wright.

That’s a little harsh-sounding on Wright, who did a serviceable job this season and ended up a touch about average.  His peripherals indicate that it’s not likely to continue, but he was an important part of the rotation this season and was useful, even if he’s a bit painful to watch at times.

And if Game 5 is needed, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1.

So the Yankees seem to have a slight edge in the starting pitching with 3 out of 5 matchups being favorable, which is a bit surprising honestly.  How about the bullpen?




Joel Zumaya has been dominant out of Detroit’s pen, but that below average walk rate seems to scream out as an advantage for the Yankees.  Baseball Info Solutions rated him as the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball, with an average fastball velocity of 98 MPH.

Fernando Rodney’s been pretty solid as well.  His season has been remarkably similar to Scott Proctor’s, minus 20 appearances.

It’s a rare bullpen where the closer is probably the third or fourth worst option, but that’s where Todd Jones sits.

The Tigers also have two solid lefties in Jamie Walker and Wil Ledezma, who will be used in key spots to try and neutralize the Giambi/Abreu/Matsui/Cano/Damon contingent, which makes it imperative for Joe Torre to keep the lefties as separated as possible in the lineup.  Zach Miner and Jason Grilli will round out the pen.  Despite appearing in the chart above, Andrew Miller will not be a part of Detroit’s bullpen.

The Detroit pen as listed above (minus Miller) has held opposing hitters to a line of .230/.308/.350, and saved 44 runs above average.  This is the biggest strength on the team, and their only statistical advantage over the Yankees.

The Yankee bullpen starts and ends at the top, with Mariano Rivera.  He appears to be healthy heading into the postseason, and he has had a lot of rest and has proclaimed that he is ready to do whatever is needed (pitch on back-to-back days, pitch two innings).  He may have to, because the bridge to him is shaky.

Scott Proctor had a great season as the most used reliever in the American League(holy crap, Salomon Torres pitched in 94 games???).  At this point, he’s probably the Yankees second best reliever as long as he’s got some juice left in his arm.  Proctor pitched in 16 games in September, and pitched well, posting a 1.65 ERA over 16.1 innings, walking 3, and fanning 14, so if he’s tired, it’s not showing.

Someone on the Nomaas discussion board has coined Kyle Farnsworth “It is high, it is Far-nsworth”.  I can’t disagree with that.  At times he’s unhittable, at other times he scares the crap out of me.  While I don’t think his past post-season results indicate some inability to pitch in the playoffs, I think his general inconsistency might.  I guess we’ll find out, but I’m not looking forward to it.

Brian Bruney brings a great fastball and bad command as the fourth RHP in the pen.  Thankfully, patience is not a strength of the Tigers.

The Yankee pen is rounded out with Ron Villone, who had a great first half that led to many(including yours truly) whining about his lack of use, and an awful August and September that led to the same many (including yours truly) whining about him being used all the time.  I think he’s on the roster as more of a reward for a solid half season, and less in a role where he’ll be expected to get many key outs.  Detroit’s heavily right-handed, so the Yankees don’t need to worry about platoon advantages when they have Mike Myers on hand.  Myers had a reverse platoon split this year, but I’m not ready to think that those 132 batters faced are more meaningful than the 2008 he had faced prior to this season.  He’ll likely be asked to come in to get Sean Casey or Curtis Granderson out, and that’s about it.  Cory Lidle will sit in the pen as well, in case any of the starters gets bombed.

All these numbers seem to indicate a classic mismatch.  I’m not ready to go that far.  Detroit’s a good team in a great baseball town.  They led arguably the toughest division in baseball almost all season.  They’re not just the team that went 26-30 over their last 56 games, they’re also the team that went 71-35 over their first 106. 

This is an organization that lost 119 games just three seasons ago.  Their turnaround has been remarkable and a credit to all involved.  I think they can beat the Yankees, and I wouldn’t take them lightly.  A great defensive team loaded with hard throwers can beat anyone if things break right.

But I don’t think they will.  Yankees in four.

Peter Abraham posted the Game 1 lineup on his fine blog.

Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Gary Sheffield 1B
Jason Giambi DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui LF
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B

Rodriguez 6th?  Interesting.

--Posted at 7:05 pm by SG / No Comments | No Trackbacks - (283)

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Saturday, September 30, 2006

Yankees.com: Torre sets postseason roster

NEW YORK—Joe Torre settled on his 25-man roster for the American League Division Series, choosing Andy Phillips and Miguel Cairo to round out his bench.
In addition, Torre announced that Brian Bruney would be the final man in the bullpen, as the Yankees will take 11 pitchers into the opening round of the postseason.

New York will take seven infielders (Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Cairo and Phillips), two catchers (Jorge Posada and Sal Fasano) and five outfielders (Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Bernie Williams and Melky Cabrera).

The 11 pitchers will be Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, Cory Lidle, Ron Villone, Bruney, Mike Myers, Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera. If Johnson’s back injury causes him to miss his Game 3 start, the Yankees would leave him off the roster and add either Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner or Sean Henn.

The decision to take Phillips as the backup first baseman over Craig Wilson or Aaron Guiel had as much to do with Phillips’ ability to play second and third base as his defense at first.

“We felt Phillips gave us the defense at first base,” Torre said. “Plus, in the event we want to use Cairo as a pinch-runner, we have a backup infielder who can play third, second or first.”

I can’t say have much issue with any of the choices.  While I’d rather see them take 10 pitchers and add Aaron Guiel or Craig Wilson, given Johnson’s uncertain status taking 11 pitchers is the safer move.

Update:  I saw this posted on Baseball Think Factory and thought it was interesting.



Another update: Since the batting race is the hot topic of the day, I’ll keep the table below updated in real-time.

 

Player	Today	AVG
	2-4	.347
	1-5	.343
	2-4	.342

--Posted at 11:00 pm by SG / No Comments | No Trackbacks - (295)

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Monday, September 18, 2006

Good thing this weekend’s four game series with Boston was meaningless

It’s a good thing this weekend’s four game series with Boston was meaningless, because the Yankees played like garbage.

Game 1: Boston 5, Yankees 2

Game 2: Yankees 7, Boston 5

Game 3: Boston 6, Yankees 3

Game 4: Boston 5, Yankees 4

The game that really irritated me was the last one.  Mike Myers is a lefty specialist.  His job is to get lefties out.  He’s actually had better success against righties this year (200/.321/.267 vs. .250/.292/.412 against lefties), but that’s over 28.2 innings.  From 2003-2005, he held lefies to a line of .208/.278/.318 compared to .331/.450/.509.  Joe Torre had Myers face five straight right-handed hitters, in the process turning a 4-2 lead into a 4-4 tie.

My thought is that Torre was trying to see if he can get away with not carrying Ron Villone on the postseason roster.  If Myers can get an occasional righty out, they may not need Villone, whose effectiveness has decreased sharply whether due to regression towards his true talent level or overwork in the month of August or some combination of the two.  Unfortunately, it cost the Yankees the game in the process.

The Yankees only have to win four of their 13 remaining games to clinch the division, so they’re not really in trouble, but it was annoying that they wasted the opportunity to bury Boston when they threw their three best starters against a Boston team that didn’t have Manny Ramirez and had to start the likes of Kevin Jarvis, Kyle Snyder, and Julian Tavarez.

For all the talk about the Yankees not needing Gary Sheffield, the lack of offense over the weekend seems to indicate that they might.  Sheffield’s supposed to play in a simulated game tomorrow, so he may be ready to see game action by the end of the week.

The Yanks take on Toronto now, who have an elimination number of three, so if they can take two of three they’ll eliminate the Jays.  Darrell Rasner takes on AJ Burnett.  Another solid start by Rasner could get him into the postseason mix as a long reliever.

--Posted at 10:03 am by SG / No Comments | No Trackbacks - (243)

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Thursday, September 7, 2006

Matsui, Thunder take opener

This Matsui kid looks like a keeper.  More impressive than Hideki’s first game action back, check out Phil Hughes’s line for those who haven’t yet seen it.
6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 13 K.

The big club whipped up on the Royals 8-3 last night.  Randy Johnson was great, almost Anibal Sanchez-like, taking a no-hitter into the seventh before allowing a double.  Johnson was pulled after seven innings and 81 pitches, and I was fine with this.  The Yankees were winning 8-0 when he would have started the eighth, and with the game well in hand, many of the regulars in the lineup had been pulled.  Gone were Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada.

If the game was so obviously over, why was Scott Proctor brought in?  The Yankees currently have the following bullpen:

T.J. Beam
Brian Bruney
Octavio Dotel
Kyle Farnsworth
Sean Henn
Jeff Karstens
Mike Myers
Scott Proctor
Darrell Rasner
Mariano Rivera
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Jaret Wright

Scratch Mo, who’s working his way back from a muscle strain.  Scratch Villlone too, who has been acknowledged as perhaps slightly fatigued.  Hell, scratch Bruney, Henn, and Dotel since they had pitched Tuesday night.  You still had SEVEN other options with an 8-0 lead to get 6 outs before allowing eight runs.  Instead, Torre went to Proctor, who leads all of baseball in appearances and innings and pitches by a reliever, in a low leverage situation.  The same Scott Proctor who had pitched in two of the previous three games, once with a six run lead.  With Mo ailing and Kyle Farnsworth being Kyle Farnsworth, there’s a chance that Proctor may be the Yankees’ most useful reliever if they get to the postseason.  Why Joe?  Why?

Eh, enough whining.  It was a nice win to take the series against a Kansas City team that’s been playing pretty well since the All Star Break.  Yanks have a day off today, then open up a 3 game series in Baltimore.

--Posted at 8:23 am by SG / No Comments | 1 Trackback - (264)

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