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Tuesday, October 27, 2009

2009 World Series Preview: Phillies vs. Yankees

We’re down to the final two in the quest for the World Series Championship. Can the Phillies make it two in a row, or will getting through the Yankees be too much for them? Let’s take a look…

Phillies
The Phillies beat Colorado 3-1 in the NLDS, scoring 20 runs and allowing 15. They followed that up by beating the higher-seeded LA Dodgers 4-1 in the NLCS, scoring 35 runs and allowing 16. Here's how their position players project offensively and defensively.

Lineup	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	pwOBA	09wOBA	Diff	BR	Outs	dRS
jimmy rollins	ss	34	.274	.330	.452	.338	.309	-.029	5	23	3
shane victorino	cf	33	.291	.352	.437	.346	.350	.004	5	21	-1
chase utley	2b	33	.299	.393	.519	.395	.394	-.001	6	20	11
ryan howard	1b	32	.280	.376	.567	.399	.391	-.008	6	20	0
jayson werth	rf	31	.273	.374	.481	.372	.378	.006	5	19	6
raul ibanez	lf	31	.294	.362	.513	.375	.378	.003	5	20	-5
pedro feliz	3b	30	.260	.303	.410	.310	.304	-.006	3	21	10
carlos ruiz	c	19	.256	.342	.395	.328	.341	.014	2	12	2
greg dobbs	3b	8	.283	.333	.433	.334	.296	-.037	1	5	-3
matt stairs	lf	8	.257	.347	.439	.344	.336	-.008	1	5	2
paul bako	c	2	.222	.301	.311	.279	.292	.013	0	1	-1
ben francisco	rf	8	.258	.326	.424	.328	.330	.002	1	5	-2
eric bruntlett	2b	1	.231	.307	.313	.282	.207	-.075	0	1	-6
miguel cairo	2b	1	.241	.292	.335	.278	.296	.018	0	1	4
total		271	.279	.352	.467	.356	.352	-.004	39	175	1

PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.

Jimmy Rollins did not have a good season this year, and so far in the postseason he's hit just .244/.279/.317. Despite that, he's locked in at the leadoff spot. We also know that we have a long track record of Rollins being better than he was in 2009, and we should assume that he'll be better going forward because of that. The more frequently he can get on base, the harder it will be to beat the Phillies because of the power that hits behind him and the fact that he's a very good base stealer (he's stolen 155 bases over 176 attempts since 2006, a success rate of 88.1%, about +26 runs). Rollins is a switch-hitter that doesn't have much of a platoon split, with an OPS of .762 vs. RHP and .783 vs. LHP. Rollins's defense at SS projects a touch above average over a full season.

Shane Victorino will likely bat second most of the time in this series. He's another switch-hitter. He's historically hit better against righties (.762 OPS vs. LHP compared to .836 vs. RHP). With the Yankees possibly throwing lefties in five of the seven games, that will be important for the Phillie since Ryan Howard becomes a much less effective player against lefties. Victorino's defensive projection is essentially average in CF.

Chase Utley generally bats third. He's probably one of the top ten players in baseball, even though he seems to get overlooked compared to Rollins and Howard. He's a very good hitter and a very good defender and he manages to hold his own against lefties despite being left-handed.

Ryan Howard is a monster against RHP. In his career he's hit .307/.409/.661 vs, righties in 2085 PAs, and has homered around once every 9.6 ABs. Against lefties, he falls off a ton as he's hit .226/.310/.444 in 1060 PAs. Even though it's 3000+ PAs, we still have to assume that those splits are more extreme than Howard's actual talent, but there's definitely a disparity there. It will be in the Yankees' best interest to use Phil Coke and Damaso Marte, even if neither inspires a ton of confidence, as often as they can if he comes up in a crucial situation late. Howard had a reputation as a horrible defender, but he's rated close to average recently and projects as average right now.

Jayson Werth's had a pretty interesting career path. He was drafted as a catcher in 1997 by the Orioles with the 22nd pick of the draft. After hitting poorly in A+ and AA in 2000, he was traded to Toronto for John Bale. He was moved to the OF and debuted in 2002 with the Blue Jays, seeing sporadic playing time over 2002 and 2003 before being traded to the Dodgers for Jason Frasor. He hit pretty well in 2004, but an A.J. Burnett pitch broke his left wrist in spring training of 2005, and caused him to scuffle when he played. It took him almost two seasons to recover from continued wrist injuries and he was signed to a one-year deal by the Phillies in 2006. He's hit .276/.376/.494 for the Phillies since then, while seeing time in all three OF spots.

Werth has been much better against lefties in his career (.284/.391/.570 vs. LHP compared to .252/.347/.423 vs. RHP). Again, like with Howard, we need to be aware that 2300 PAs with that kind of split doesn't necessarily mean that Werth's quite that good against lefties/bad against righties, but there's definitely some difference there. While the idea of protection in the batting order in and of itself has generally been shown to be more myth than fact, when you have two guys with diametrically opposite platoon splits like that back to back, it makes it a little harder for the other team to match up with them strategically. If you bring in Coke to get Howard with Werth on deck followed by Raul Ibanez, do you risk Coke against the righty Werth to deal with Ibanez after that, or do you pull Coke for a righty then figure out where to go with Ibanez after that?

Geez, I didn't expect to write so much about Werth.

Anyway, next is the aforementioned Ibanez. From the start of the season through July 30, Ibanez hit .305/.370/640. From July 3 on he hit .219/.311/.411. His overall line was right around where he'd project to be going forward. From 2006 to 2008 Ibanez was rated as one of the worst defenders in baseball, with a combined UZR of -38 in LF. For whatever reason in 2009 he was much better, at +7. He'd project around a -5 defender right now going forward. According to Phillies' manager Charlie Manuel, Ibanez may be DH'ed for the games at DNYS, which obviously makes him a little less harmful defensively.

Pedro Feliz is a very good defensive 3B. He's good enough defensively at 3B that it makees up for a bat that is often close to replacement level. Feliz is only slightly less abysmal against lefties (.252/.288/.417 vs. RHP compared to .259/.307/.438 vs. LHP in his career).

I have this nightmare of Carlos Ruiz playing the Jeff Mathis 'Johnny Bench' role in the World Series for some reason.

The Phillies have Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Ben Francisco, Paul Bako, Eric Bruntlett and Miguel Cairo(Yay!) around on the bench. I'd expect we'll see Stairs and Francisco quite a bit, Stairs as a possible pinch-hitter DH, and Francisco spotted in the OF.

I know that we'll have pitchers "hitting" in at least two games in this series, but I don't do pitcher hitting projections so I just gave a few more PAs to the bench on the assumption that pitchers will be pinch-hit for when necessary. I'll do the same for the Yankees.

Moving on to the Phillies pitching, here are their projections.

Pitcher	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	K	pRA	pERA	pFIP	09ERA	09FIP	sIP	sR
cliff lee	SP1	180	189	16	54	126	4.02	3.75	3.87	3.14	3.30	17	7.6
pedro martinez	SP2	93	90	12	31	79	4.60	4.36	4.25	3.62	4.12	11	5.6
cole hamels	SP3	187	179	24	49	169	4.27	4.00	3.84	4.32	3.74	12	5.7
joe blanton	SP4	202	210	25	61	140	4.45	4.24	4.29	4.06	4.43	3	1.5
brad lidge	CL	67	64	9	32	79	5.24	4.77	3.94	7.21	5.30	4	2.3
ryan madson	SU	84	86	8	27	71	4.30	4.07	3.76	3.26	3.21	4	1.9
brett myers	SU	97	84	10	33	97	3.88	3.67	3.60	4.84	6.07	4	1.7
j.a. happ	MR	122	114	13	47	100	3.85	3.72	4.09	2.93	4.34	2	0.9
antonio bastardo	MR	87	91	17	19	67	5.42	5.07	4.81	6.46	4.93	2	1.2
chad durbin	MR	109	109	16	44	71	5.27	4.87	5.03	4.39	4.94	2	1.2
scott eyre	MR	44	42	5	20	40	4.09	3.79	4.07	1.50	4.63	1	0.5
chan ho park	LR	66	62	8	24	39	5.30	4.83	4.73	4.02	4.46	1	0.6
Total		63	61	7	20	52	4.29	4.03	4.00				30.6

pRA: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
pERA: Projected earned runs allowed per nine innings
pFIP: Projected Fielding independent pitching
sIP: Estimated innings in the series
sR: Estimated runs allowed in the series based on revised projection and sIP

The Phillies don't have a set rotation and have been moving pitchers creatively to deal with a bullpen that was less than stellar in 2009. It looks like what we know for sure is that Cliff Lee will start Game 1, Pedro Martinez will start Game 2, and Cole Hamels will start game 3. I'll revise the odds of the games and series as we go, but for now I'm going to go with the assumption that they will try and start Lee three times with Hamels and Pedro going twice each.

As far as the pen, I just mixed the innings around a bit.

Add it all up, and here's what we're looking at.

#games	7
home games	3
#outs	175
offense	39.3
pitching	30.6
defense	1.2
wpct	.633
162 gm equiv	102-60

#outs: 25 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season

So you're essentially looking at the equivalent of 102 win team once you factor in offense, defense, pitching and a one game home field disadvantage. How does that stack up against the Yankees and what does it mean as far as the World Series odds? I need to step away from Mom's basement for a bit but I'll add the Yankees to this post in a little while.

And here it is.

Yankees

The Yankees, who have a payroll of $200 million, were able to get through the Twins and Angels to make it to the World Series in the inaugural season of their $1.4 billion disgrace of a new stadium. Of course, the Yankees didn't earn their way to the World Series, they got here by buying a pennant, just like they did in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Oh wait, they didn't? You mean that you can spend a bunch of money but it doesn't guarantee anything? Weird.

Anyway, the Yankees were probably the best team in baseball in 2009. Here's how their position players project as we head into the Fall Classic.

Lineup	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	pwOBA	09wOBA	Diff	BR	Outs	dRS
derek jeter	ss	33	.314	.382	.440	.364	.384	.020	5	20	-3
johnny damon	lf	32	.282	.357	.453	.354	.369	.015	5	21	0
mark teixeira	1b	32	.292	.386	.542	.397	.402	.005	6	20	4
alex rodriguez	3b	31	.293	.399	.546	.405	.402	-.003	6	19	-4
jorge posada	c	31	.288	.378	.485	.376	.377	.002	5	19	-6
robinson cano	2b	28	.305	.339	.485	.354	.372	.018	4	18	-1
nick swisher	rf	26	.243	.359	.461	.357	.373	.016	4	17	2
melky cabrera	cf	24	.270	.328	.394	.318	.328	.010	3	16	0
hideki matsui	dh	15	.279	.363	.474	.363	.375	.012	2	10	0
brett gardner	cf	6	.257	.338	.342	.310	.318	.008	1	4	13
eric hinske	rf	6	.238	.330	.449	.339	.347	.008	1	4	-1
jose molina	c	6	.226	.270	.319	.261	.259	-.001	0	4	1
jerry hairston	ss	5	.266	.317	.404	.314	.302	-.012	1	3	-3
ramiro pena	ss	0	.240	.287	.304	.267	.306	.039	0	0	5
total		275	.285	.366	.476	.362	.372	.010	40	175	0

Derek Jeter, who makes $20M a year, had a nice rebound season in 2009 and has hit .297/.435/.595 so far in the postseason with three HRs, which is second on the team. Although he's still considered a horrendously awful defender by most of the sabermetrically savvy, the empirical fact is that he's been closer to average than bad of late and projects similarly going forward.

JohnnY 'Trader' Damon will bat second and play LF. Damon made $13M this year. His overall postseason line is an unimpressive .238/.273/.405, but he did hit .300/.323/.533 in the ALCS.

I could tell you about Mark Teixeira's offense and defense, but frankly, what I would rather talk about is that he was signed to an eight year/$180M contract. I really wish we'd stop getting articles about the Yankees that don't mention their payroll and budget and the cost of their new stadium.

I guess I'll mention that Teixeria's bat has been MIA for most of the postseason (.205/.273/.308). He's been playing stellar defense though.

Alex Rodriguez will bat cleanup, just like he has since he returned from his hip surgery. Did you know Rodriguez made $32M this season? I wish someone would let us know about that. Rodriguez has just about completely erased the stupid notion that he had some kind of psychological issue or character flaw that caused him to do all his producing in meaningless situation and that he was an unclutch postseason performer. If he can continue this type of play for just four more wins, he may even get honored as a True Yankee™. If I were Rodriguez, I'd tell all the people who are suddenly eager to embrace him after years of crapping on him to kiss my $32M ass.

Hideki Matsui or Jorge Posada will bat fifth most of the time. Matsui won't be able to play in the NL parks because they don't have the DH, although he'll likely get some PH appearances. Posada's defense has looked a little shaky in the postseason, but he's hit pretty well (.258/.361/.484). I could have sworn Matsui has hit .000/.000/.000 so far this postseason, but actually he's hit .233/.395/.367. Interesting note about Matsui and Posada, they both make money to play for the Yankees.

Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera round out the bottom of the lineup. A good ALCS has Cabrera's postseason numbers up to respectability. Cano's numbers are kind of bleh, and Swisher has been awful. It'd be nice to get at least one of Cano or Swisher hitting more like they did in the regular season, especially in those silly games without a DH.

Some combination of Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, Francisco Cervelli, Freddy Guzman and Ramiro Pena will make up the bench. Molina will probably get a start or two with A.J. Burnett, even though their great chemistry didn't help much last time out.

As far as the pitching goes, here's how it looks.

Pitcher	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	K	pRA	pERA	pFIP	09ERA	09FIP	sIP	sR
cc sabathia	SP1	229	213	20	63	198	3.84	3.44	3.42	3.37	3.38	17	7.2
a.j. burnett	SP2	197	186	22	71	185	4.42	4.06	3.84	4.04	4.29	17	8.3
andy pettitte	SP3	205	219	21	68	149	4.82	4.35	4.05	4.16	4.19	10	5.4
mariano rivera	CL	71	55	5	12	69	2.32	2.18	2.72	1.76	2.94	6	1.5
phil hughes	SU	79	66	5	27	81	3.45	3.25	3.02	3.03	3.15	3	1.2
david robertson	SU	68	60	5	22	69	3.70	3.43	3.05	3.30	3.09	3	1.2
joba chamberlain	MR	79	69	6	32	88	3.52	3.18	3.16	4.75	4.69	3	1.2
alfredo aceves	MR	84	72	8	13	59	3.91	3.63	3.46	3.54	3.68	1	0.4
damaso marte	MR	43	39	4	19	41	5.02	4.68	3.97	9.47	5.53	1	0.6
phil coke	MR	61	63	6	15	46	4.73	4.41	3.62	4.50	4.73	1	0.5
chad gaudin	MR	102	104	13	42	79	4.82	4.45	4.54	3.43	5.18	1	0.5
mark melancon	LR	62	62	8	8	37	5.11	4.70	3.95	3.87	3.81	0	0.0
Total		63	59	6	20	56	4.02	3.66	3.55				28.1

The assumption here is the Yankee will risk going with a three man rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. With Sabathia, the evidence shows it's a risk worth taking. With Burnett, we do have a handful of starts that show he's been able to do it in the past as well. With Pettitte, we have 14 games started on three days rest in his career but none since 2006. I think it's a chance worth taking, the Yankees probably just need to have a long reliever shadowing in case of disaster, be it Gaudin or Aceves.

As far as the pen, it's Mo and the Musketeers. Hopefully Hughes pitches more like he did in the regular season than he has in the postseason so far. I'd like to see David Robertson pitch a little more, and as I mentioned with the Phillies we're probably going to see more Coke and Marte.

Adding up the Yankees offense, defense and pitching gives us this

#games	7
home games	4
#outs	175
offense	40.4
pitching	28.1
defense	-0.3
wpct	.666
162 gm equiv	108-54

So even before we think about the possible difference in leagues, the Yankees should be slight favorites in this series.

So what of the league difference? I haven't had the time to see if it's changed in 2009, but prior to this season I had the AL around 4% better than the NL. I arrived at this by looking at players who switched leagues and comparing how they ended up doing compared to how we should have projected them to do. In general, players who moved from the NL did 4% worse than they'd have projected to, and players who made the opposite switch did 4% better.

As far as translating that to wins at a team level, I'd probably just multiply the expected winning percentage of the Phillies by 0.96 to get them to an AL equivalent. So instead of being a .633/102 win team, they'd be more like a .607/98 win team in the AL.

So what happens if we play out the World Series 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator using the projections and playing time estimates in this post?

Yankees: 58.7%
Phillies: 41.3%

Go Yankees.