Thursday, December 10, 2009
What Cost Granderson?
Following up on yesterday’s post about Curtis Granderson, here’s a look at what the Yankees gave up in Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke.
The key player in the package is probably Jackson, who was generally considered the Yankees' second best position player prospect and played in AAA last year. Jackson's a very good athlete who was signed out of a committment to play point guard at Georgia Tech.Although Jackson hit reasonably well this year for Scranton/WB (.300/.359/.406), a deeper look at his numbers could be a cause for concern. He struck out 130 times and needed a BABIP of .392 to hit that line. His BABIP in 2008 for Trenton was .346, and in 2007 it was .360. While it's possible his ability to get hits on balls in play has improved, it's doubtful that he could sustain a BABIP quite that high.
Jackson's power is also somewhat uninspiring, and probably the biggest reason I was somewhat concerned about how he'd do in the majors. Of course, that was a concern with Brett Gardner as well and at least in 2009 it was overblown.
Here's how CAIRO has Jackson projected for 2010.
| % | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 80% | 141 | 604 | 560 | 76 | 150 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 59 | 51 | 115 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 11 | .269 | .337 | .410 | 77 | 19 | .332 |
| 65% | 137 | 587 | 544 | 69 | 140 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 54 | 46 | 117 | 3 | 23 | 5 | 13 | .258 | .323 | .383 | 67 | 10 | .315 |
| Baseline | 135 | 575 | 533 | 64 | 132 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 120 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 14 | .247 | .309 | .355 | 57 | 1 | .298 |
| 35% | 128 | 546 | 507 | 57 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 120 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 12 | .236 | .292 | .332 | 48 | -5 | .280 |
| 20% | 121 | 518 | 480 | 50 | 108 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 32 | 118 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 10 | .225 | .274 | .309 | 39 | -11 | .262 |
| 2009 | 132 | 550 | 510 | 59 | 123 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 35 | 134 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 14 | .241 | .296 | .322 | 48 | -6 | .279 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Not a very inspiring range of projections. However, because of his age and his athleticism, Jackson almost certainly has the physical upside to make a big leap forward and blow away these projections.
If we forecast him through 2013 like we did with Granderson, here's how that looks.
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2010 | 22 | 575 | 533 | 64 | 132 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 120 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 14 | .247 | .309 | .355 | 57 | 1 | .298 |
| 2011 | 23 | 594 | 551 | 68 | 137 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 44 | 123 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 15 | .249 | .312 | .359 | 59 | 2 | .301 |
| 2012 | 24 | 607 | 563 | 70 | 142 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 124 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 15 | .252 | .316 | .361 | 63 | 4 | .304 |
| 2013 | 25 | 588 | 546 | 69 | 140 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 44 | 121 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 15 | .256 | .320 | .367 | 62 | 5 | .309 |
| Total | 2364 | 2193 | 271 | 551 | 95 | 17 | 37 | 213 | 176 | 488 | 16 | 76 | 24 | 59 | .251 | .314 | .360 | 242 | 13 | .303 |
If we run the same four year forecast but assume he hits his 80% projection in 2010, here's how it looks.
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2010 | 22 | 604 | 560 | 76 | 150 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 59 | 51 | 115 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 11 | .269 | .337 | .410 | 77 | 19 | .332 |
| 2011 | 23 | 606 | 562 | 73 | 145 | 26 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 120 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 14 | .258 | .324 | .383 | 68 | 9 | .316 |
| 2012 | 24 | 619 | 575 | 76 | 151 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 60 | 50 | 122 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 14 | .262 | .329 | .386 | 72 | 12 | .320 |
| 2013 | 25 | 602 | 559 | 75 | 149 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 59 | 49 | 119 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 13 | .267 | .335 | .397 | 73 | 14 | .327 |
| Total | 2431 | 2255 | 299 | 596 | 109 | 22 | 47 | 236 | 198 | 476 | 12 | 89 | 18 | 51 | .264 | .331 | .394 | 290 | 55 | .324 |
Again, I'll reiterate that Jackson almost definitely has the tools to exceed these projections, and I'll also mention that projection systems are inherently limited, even one as awesome as CAIRO.
Jackson supposedly has good speed, so he may also be able to derive more value from his defense and baserunning. If he can be a +5 defender in CF and a +5 baserunner, then he should be a better than replacement level option in CF.
A lot would have to break right for Jackson to end up being as valuable as Granderson projects to be though, and that's the key for the Yankees for the next four seasons.
Although Ian Kennedy didn't pitch well at all in 2008 and missed most of 2009 with an aneurysm and subsequent surgery, I am still somewhat bearish on him. I don't think his ceiling is much beyond third starter/league average, but that's a good thing to have. Hell, it just made Andy Pettitte $11.75M.
Here's how CAIRO saw Kennedy projecting as a Yankee.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 11 | 8 | 165 | 160 | 79 | 69 | 12 | 67 | 135 | 4.29 | 3.77 | 3.87 | 25.7 | 2.6 |
| 65% | 9 | 8 | 158 | 159 | 83 | 74 | 14 | 68 | 123 | 4.76 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 16.2 | 1.6 |
| Baseline | 8 | 9 | 150 | 158 | 88 | 78 | 15 | 69 | 112 | 5.28 | 4.68 | 4.52 | 6.8 | 0.7 |
| 35% | 7 | 8 | 135 | 148 | 83 | 74 | 15 | 66 | 96 | 5.56 | 4.94 | 4.85 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 20% | 6 | 8 | 120 | 136 | 78 | 69 | 15 | 62 | 81 | 5.84 | 5.21 | 5.18 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| 2009 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.52 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
That's not an awful projection, but it's worse than either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain. It's also worse than the following mystery pitcher's projection.
| W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 8 | 8 | 150 | 145 | 84 | 77 | 17 | 66 | 124 | 5.04 | 4.64 | 4.43 | 10.8 | 1.1 |
This mystery pitcher is only two years older than IPK, and is on the Yankees already.
With Andy Pettitte back in the fold, and with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett at the top of the rotation, the Yankees ostensibly want to use Hughes and Chamberlain in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. That means Kennedy and the mystery pitcher would probably be pitching in long relief or the minors waiting for a break.
Because Chad Gaudin projects at the very least to be as good as Kennedy, and has experience working out of the bullpen, and also has relative youth on his side, I think he made Kennedy expendable. Obviously, if you lose more than one starter you start to get in the Igawa zone, but maybe the Yankees feel comfortable that they have enough depth with Gaudin, Aceves, Zach McAllister and others to take that risk.
Lastly, the Yankees also gave up Phil Coke. I like Coke and think he'll be a useful lefty reliever, but he's an extreme fly ball pitcher who will give up a good amount of HRs, especially in DNYS.
Here are Coke's CAIRO projections for 2010.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 5 | 3 | 66 | 57 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 53 | 3.90 | 3.62 | 3.76 | 9.6 | 1.0 |
| 65% | 4 | 3 | 63 | 59 | 32 | 29 | 7 | 23 | 47 | 4.51 | 4.20 | 4.31 | 4.9 | 0.5 |
| Baseline | 3 | 3 | 60 | 60 | 35 | 32 | 8 | 25 | 42 | 5.18 | 4.84 | 4.86 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 35% | 3 | 3 | 54 | 57 | 34 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 5.62 | 5.27 | 5.40 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 20% | 2 | 3 | 48 | 54 | 32 | 30 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 6.06 | 5.69 | 5.95 | -4.5 | -0.5 |
As a situational lefty reliever, Coke's a tactical option whose value is not necessarily going to be properly reflected in a normal runs saved above average/replacement level scale, but it doesn't seem like he's necessarily a big loss. Especially with Damaso Marte around. The Yankees also seem to like Michael Dunn a lot, although unless he makes a quantum leap forward with his command I don't think he's an option.
I also wouldn't be shocked if the Yankees made a play for Mike Gonzalez in a quest to rebuild the 2006 Pirates bullpen if they decided to bid on a Type A free agent for LF/DH, which would mean it wouldn't cost them a first round pick to go after Gonzalez.
I think too many people get hung up on the notion of "winning" a trade, and feel any trade that's not clearly an obvious win by their team's GM is a bad one. It shouldn't be that cut and dried though. A good trade should make sense on all sides and help all teams, and I think this trade does that for both the Tigers and the Yanks. The Dbacks, I'm not so sure...
Update: As requested, here's Kennedy's four year forecast if he hits his baseline projection in 2010.
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 150 | 158 | 88 | 78 | 15 | 69 | 112 | 5.28 | 4.68 | 4.40 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 26 | 9 | 10 | 174 | 181 | 103 | 92 | 17 | 82 | 130 | 5.34 | 4.76 | 4.45 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 194 | 203 | 117 | 104 | 20 | 92 | 142 | 5.42 | 4.84 | 4.51 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 2013 | 28 | 11 | 12 | 210 | 221 | 123 | 110 | 21 | 99 | 152 | 5.27 | 4.69 | 4.47 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
And if he hit his 80% projection in 2010, his going-forward forecast would look more like this.
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 165 | 160 | 79 | 69 | 12 | 67 | 135 | 4.29 | 3.77 | 3.76 | 22.2 | 2.2 |
| 2011 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 190 | 183 | 93 | 83 | 14 | 79 | 154 | 4.42 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 22.8 | 2.3 |
| 2012 | 27 | 13 | 10 | 212 | 205 | 106 | 94 | 16 | 90 | 169 | 4.48 | 3.98 | 3.90 | 24.0 | 2.4 |
| 2013 | 28 | 14 | 11 | 230 | 224 | 111 | 98 | 17 | 96 | 181 | 4.34 | 3.85 | 3.87 | 29.5 | 3.0 |
Monday, November 30, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Phil Coke, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves
The Yankee bullpen started out shakily in 2009, with pitchers like Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez unable to follow up on their good 2008 performances. Here are some of the key stats for the Yankee bullpen through May 9.
ERA: 6.22
FIP: 6.00
CERA: 5.57
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .266/.355/.506
HR/9: 2.11
BB/9: 4.48
K/9: 8.79
From May 10 on, here’s how the pen performed.
ERA: 3.37
FIP: 4.07
CERA: 3.34
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .222/.295/.365
HR/9: 1.06
BB/9: 3.24
K/9: 8.36
We’ve already covered Phil Hughes, so now I’ll look at Phil Coke, David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves.
| phil coke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 60 | 60 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 24 | 56 | 4.25 | 3.96 | 2 | 9 | 94.5% | 83.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 60 | 56 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 47 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 4 | 11 | 87.5% | 82.1% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 60 | 67 | 36 | 33 | 7 | 24 | 43 | 4.99 | 4.43 | -3 | 4 | 111.0% | 93.7% |
| 2009 tht projection | 60 | 68 | 39 | 36 | 9 | 29 | 37 | 5.44 | 5.33 | -6 | 1 | 120.9% | 112.6% |
| 2009 zips projection | 60 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 4.91 | 4.72 | -3 | 5 | 109.1% | 99.7% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 60 | 78 | 41 | 39 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 5.82 | 4.33 | -9 | -1 | 129.3% | 91.4% |
| 2009 average projection | 60 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 23 | 43 | 4.89 | 4.44 | -3 | 5 | 108.7% | 93.9% |
| 2009 actual | 60 | 44 | 34 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 49 | 4.50 | 4.73 | 0 | 8 |
*Coke's projections were primarily as a starter, so I converted them to a relief equivalent.
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
Although his last appearance of the season was a disaster, Phil Coke was pretty good for most of 2009. As a lefty-reliever, his primary job is to get left-handed hitters out. That's something he's done 77.9% of the time in his major league career, which is the good news. The bad news is he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and allowed 10 HRs in 60 innings. The major difference with Coke pitching to righties versus lefties is his BB rate. RHB have hit .202 against him and have slugged .367 against him in his career, good for an ISO(SLG - AVG) of .165. LHB have hit .197 with a .349 SLG, good for an ISO of .152. Coke's walked 16 of the 127 RHB he's faced, compared to 6 of the 163 LHB he's faced.
I know a lot of Yankee fans don't trust him, but I see no reason he can't be an effective second lefty out of the pen.
| david robertson | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 2 | 8 | 123.7% | 129.4% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 44 | 43 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 4.50 | 3.95 | 0 | 5 | 136.6% | 128.0% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 44 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 48 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 4 | 10 | 109.9% | 110.1% |
| 2009 tht projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 2 | 8 | 123.8% | 129.4% |
| 2009 zips projection | 44 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 24 | 38 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 2 | 7 | 125.2% | 122.4% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 44 | 39 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 5 | 10 | 105.2% | 98.6% |
| 2009 average projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 3.98 | 3.69 | 3 | 8 | 120.7% | 119.7% |
| 2009 actual | 44 | 36 | 19 | 16 | 4 | 23 | 63 | 3.30 | 3.09 | 6 | 11 |
Robertson's projections were decent, but he ended up exceeding them. The biggest thing was the bump in his strikeout rate, as he K'd about 20 more batters over his average projection pro-rated to the 44 innings he pitched. Among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings in 2009, Robertson's K/9 rate of 12.98 was second in baseball, behind Jonathan Broxton.
I'm a little concerned about the late season issue that shut Robertson down for most of September, primarily because of how sporadically he was used in the postseason. That tells me that there was at least some lingering concern about his health. As long as that's not an ongoing problem, Robertson's emergence should allow the Yankees to at least try and use both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the rotation, with the hope that Robertson and Damaso Marte can serve as setup men and someone from the farm like Mark Melancon and/or Edwar Ramirez can take Robertson's 2009 role in 2010.
| alfredo aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 84 | 82 | 39 | 37 | 12 | 30 | 63 | 3.93 | 4.64 | 5 | 16 | 111.2% | 126.1% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 84 | 71 | 31 | 29 | 9 | 32 | 68 | 3.06 | 4.12 | 13 | 24 | 86.6% | 112.1% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 84 | 82 | 40 | 37 | 11 | 30 | 60 | 3.99 | 4.62 | 5 | 15 | 113.0% | 125.7% |
| 2009 tht projection | 84 | 82 | 40 | 37 | 12 | 30 | 63 | 3.93 | 4.64 | 5 | 16 | 111.2% | 126.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 84 | 85 | 42 | 38 | 14 | 24 | 51 | 4.12 | 4.96 | 4 | 14 | 116.6% | 134.8% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 84 | 75 | 38 | 36 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 3.83 | 4.15 | 6 | 17 | 108.5% | 112.8% |
| 2009 average projection | 84 | 79 | 38 | 36 | 12 | 27 | 60 | 3.81 | 4.52 | 6 | 17 | 107.8% | 122.9% |
| 2009 actual | 84 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 10 | 16 | 69 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 9 | 20 |
*Like Coke, Aceves's projections were primarily as a starter so I converted them to a relief equivalency.
Aceves emerged as one of the Yankees' most important relievers and a had a very good season even though he tailed off at the end. His ERA got as low as 2.02 on July 5. He then started a game against Minnesota on July 9 and scuffled the rest of the way (4.91 ERA). While it's a nice and convenient end point to look at that start and blame it for Aceves's year-end tailing off, a deeper look at the numbers removing that start shows this:
| Split | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | HBP | ERA | FIP | CERA |
| Through Jul 5 | 40.0 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 2.03 | 3.88 | 2.81 |
| July 18-Oct 3 | 40.7 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4.65 | 3.67 | 3.21 |
| Total | 81 | 65 | 32 | 30 | 16 | 67 | 9 | 5 | 3.35 | 3.77 | 3.01 |
Aceves didn't really pitch all that much differently before or after the start. The primary difference was five extra singles, and 12 extra runs allowed. His final overall line is reasonably close to what it should have been given his peripherals, maybe a touch better.
While the Yankees have supposedly asked Aceves to prepare to come into spring training as a starter, it's more likely he'll be in the pen again in 2010 depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out, and he should be an asset there again just like he was in 2009.
I'm going to do one more of these for Mariano Rivera, but I think I'm going to skip the bench and scrubs unless there's a demand for it. Then we can dive into Hot Stove GM mode.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
2009 World Series Run Values Through Game Five
I figured today’s off day would be a good chance to look at who’s contributed what so far in the World Series. I still don’t know of any place that’s tracking play by play defense, so I’m just going to look at the offense and pitching so far.
| Player | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Chase Utley | 21 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .333 | .429 | 1.222 | 7.76 | 5.13 |
| Hideki Matsui | 10 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .556 | .600 | 1.222 | 4.14 | 2.89 |
| Johnny Damon | 23 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .381 | .435 | .476 | 4.54 | 1.66 |
| Jayson Werth | 20 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .294 | .400 | .647 | 4.00 | 1.49 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 22 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .364 | .556 | 3.87 | 1.11 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 19 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .368 | .563 | 3.36 | 0.98 |
| Derek Jeter | 23 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .364 | .391 | .455 | 3.35 | 0.47 |
| Nick Swisher | 15 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .333 | .500 | 2.24 | 0.36 |
| Cole Hamels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | .500 | 1.000 | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| Eric Hinske | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 1.000 | .000 | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| Raul Ibanez | 20 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 2.54 | 0.03 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 24 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .263 | .417 | .263 | 3.04 | 0.03 |
| Cliff Lee | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0.27 | -0.11 |
| Andy Pettitte | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0.27 | -0.11 |
| A.J. Burnett | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.10 | -0.23 |
| Eric Bruntlett | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.10 | -0.23 |
| Jose Molina | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | 0.13 | -0.25 |
| Jorge Posada | 18 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .313 | .333 | .375 | 1.96 | -0.30 |
| Jerry Hairston | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 0.17 | -0.33 |
| Joe Blanton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.20 | -0.45 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.30 | -0.68 |
| Ben Francisco | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .200 | .000 | -0.07 | -0.70 |
| Pedro Feliz | 19 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .211 | .211 | .421 | 1.59 | -0.79 |
| Mark Teixeira | 23 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .105 | .261 | .316 | 1.87 | -1.01 |
| Matt Stairs | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .143 | .143 | .143 | -0.23 | -1.11 |
| Ryan Howard | 21 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .158 | .238 | .263 | 1.45 | -1.18 |
| Brett Gardner | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.60 | -1.35 |
| Shane Victorino | 22 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .273 | .222 | 1.28 | -1.48 |
| Melky Cabrera | 13 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .154 | .154 | .154 | -0.16 | -1.79 |
| Robinson Cano | 19 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .158 | .167 | -0.09 | -2.47 |
| Total | 373 | 331 | 49 | 79 | 19 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 88 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .239 | .314 | .432 | 46.78 |
BR: LInear weights batting runs (not position-adjusted).
BRAA: Batting runs above average (where average is the overall 2009 WS performance).
I still maintain that Chase Utley is a bad ass, regardless of his thoughts on grooming. It will be nice to have Hideki Matsui back in the lineup for Game 6.
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| Cliff Lee | 16.0 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 3.38 | 2.81 | 2.14 | 2.91 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 13.7 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 3.29 | 3.29 | 5.61 | 2.61 |
| Mariano Rivera | 3.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 2.04 |
| David Robertson | 2.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.30 |
| Chan Ho Park | 2.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.77 | 1.30 |
| Ryan Madson | 4.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.45 | 1.23 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.20 | 1.11 |
| Damaso Marte | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1.11 |
| Scott Eyre | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.37 |
| Pedro Martinez | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5.87 | 0.34 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 6.70 | 0.11 |
| J.A. Happ | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 9.80 | -0.07 |
| Brett Myers | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 12.20 | -0.44 |
| Chad Durbin | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 5.20 | -0.44 |
| Joe Blanton | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 2.37 | -0.66 |
| Andy Pettitte | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.70 | -0.66 |
| Phil Coke | 1.3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13.51 | 13.51 | 21.22 | -1.26 |
| Brian Bruney | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54.05 | 54.05 | 3.20 | -1.81 |
| A.J. Burnett | 9.0 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 4.53 | -1.99 |
| Philip Hughes | 1.7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16.21 | 16.21 | 13.40 | -2.07 |
| Brad Lidge | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | 4.20 | -2.44 |
| Cole Hamels | 4.3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10.39 | 10.39 | 6.89 | -2.59 |
| Total | 88.0 | 79 | 49 | 48 | 32 | 88 | 15 | 5.01 | 4.91 | 4.71 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above average (World Series average RA - pitcher RA times pitcher IP)
At least Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels are Phillies and not Yankees...
And if we combine them all into one list, here's what it looks like.
| Player | RAA |
| Chase Utley | 5.13 |
| Hideki Matsui | 2.89 |
| Cliff Lee | 2.80 |
| Mariano Rivera | 2.04 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 1.93 |
| Johnny Damon | 1.66 |
| Jayson Werth | 1.49 |
| David Robertson | 1.30 |
| Chan Ho Park | 1.30 |
| Ryan Madson | 1.23 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 1.11 |
| Damaso Marte | 1.11 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 1.11 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 0.98 |
| Derek Jeter | 0.47 |
| Scott Eyre | 0.37 |
| Nick Swisher | 0.36 |
| Pedro Martinez | 0.34 |
| Eric Hinske | 0.20 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 0.11 |
| Raul Ibanez | 0.03 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.03 |
| J.A. Happ | -0.07 |
| Eric Bruntlett | -0.23 |
| Jose Molina | -0.25 |
| Jorge Posada | -0.30 |
| Jerry Hairston | -0.33 |
| Brett Myers | -0.44 |
| Chad Durbin | -0.44 |
| Ben Francisco | -0.70 |
| Andy Pettitte | -0.77 |
| Pedro Feliz | -0.79 |
| Mark Teixeira | -1.01 |
| Matt Stairs | -1.11 |
| Joe Blanton | -1.11 |
| Ryan Howard | -1.18 |
| Phil Coke | -1.26 |
| Brett Gardner | -1.35 |
| Shane Victorino | -1.48 |
| Melky Cabrera | -1.79 |
| Brian Bruney | -1.81 |
| Philip Hughes | -2.07 |
| A.J. Burnett | -2.21 |
| Cole Hamels | -2.37 |
| Brad Lidge | -2.44 |
| Robinson Cano | -2.47 |
RAA: BRAA + RSAA
Congratulations to Robinson Cano for being the least valuable player in the World Series.
Monday, November 2, 2009
2009 World Series Game 5 Complaint Thread
This was a winnable game, but the Yankees couldn’t quite come all the way back from the hole that A.J. Burnett and Phil Coke put them in. Back to the Bronx for Game 6…
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
2009 World Series Preview: Phillies vs. Yankees
We’re down to the final two in the quest for the World Series Championship. Can the Phillies make it two in a row, or will getting through the Yankees be too much for them? Let’s take a look…
PhilliesThe Phillies beat Colorado 3-1 in the NLDS, scoring 20 runs and allowing 15. They followed that up by beating the higher-seeded LA Dodgers 4-1 in the NLCS, scoring 35 runs and allowing 16. Here's how their position players project offensively and defensively.
| Lineup | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | pwOBA | 09wOBA | Diff | BR | Outs | dRS |
| jimmy rollins | ss | 34 | .274 | .330 | .452 | .338 | .309 | -.029 | 5 | 23 | 3 |
| shane victorino | cf | 33 | .291 | .352 | .437 | .346 | .350 | .004 | 5 | 21 | -1 |
| chase utley | 2b | 33 | .299 | .393 | .519 | .395 | .394 | -.001 | 6 | 20 | 11 |
| ryan howard | 1b | 32 | .280 | .376 | .567 | .399 | .391 | -.008 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| jayson werth | rf | 31 | .273 | .374 | .481 | .372 | .378 | .006 | 5 | 19 | 6 |
| raul ibanez | lf | 31 | .294 | .362 | .513 | .375 | .378 | .003 | 5 | 20 | -5 |
| pedro feliz | 3b | 30 | .260 | .303 | .410 | .310 | .304 | -.006 | 3 | 21 | 10 |
| carlos ruiz | c | 19 | .256 | .342 | .395 | .328 | .341 | .014 | 2 | 12 | 2 |
| greg dobbs | 3b | 8 | .283 | .333 | .433 | .334 | .296 | -.037 | 1 | 5 | -3 |
| matt stairs | lf | 8 | .257 | .347 | .439 | .344 | .336 | -.008 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| paul bako | c | 2 | .222 | .301 | .311 | .279 | .292 | .013 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| ben francisco | rf | 8 | .258 | .326 | .424 | .328 | .330 | .002 | 1 | 5 | -2 |
| eric bruntlett | 2b | 1 | .231 | .307 | .313 | .282 | .207 | -.075 | 0 | 1 | -6 |
| miguel cairo | 2b | 1 | .241 | .292 | .335 | .278 | .296 | .018 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| total | 271 | .279 | .352 | .467 | .356 | .352 | -.004 | 39 | 175 | 1 |
PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.
Jimmy Rollins did not have a good season this year, and so far in the postseason he's hit just .244/.279/.317. Despite that, he's locked in at the leadoff spot. We also know that we have a long track record of Rollins being better than he was in 2009, and we should assume that he'll be better going forward because of that. The more frequently he can get on base, the harder it will be to beat the Phillies because of the power that hits behind him and the fact that he's a very good base stealer (he's stolen 155 bases over 176 attempts since 2006, a success rate of 88.1%, about +26 runs). Rollins is a switch-hitter that doesn't have much of a platoon split, with an OPS of .762 vs. RHP and .783 vs. LHP. Rollins's defense at SS projects a touch above average over a full season.
Shane Victorino will likely bat second most of the time in this series. He's another switch-hitter. He's historically hit better against righties (.762 OPS vs. LHP compared to .836 vs. RHP). With the Yankees possibly throwing lefties in five of the seven games, that will be important for the Phillie since Ryan Howard becomes a much less effective player against lefties. Victorino's defensive projection is essentially average in CF.
Chase Utley generally bats third. He's probably one of the top ten players in baseball, even though he seems to get overlooked compared to Rollins and Howard. He's a very good hitter and a very good defender and he manages to hold his own against lefties despite being left-handed.
Ryan Howard is a monster against RHP. In his career he's hit .307/.409/.661 vs, righties in 2085 PAs, and has homered around once every 9.6 ABs. Against lefties, he falls off a ton as he's hit .226/.310/.444 in 1060 PAs. Even though it's 3000+ PAs, we still have to assume that those splits are more extreme than Howard's actual talent, but there's definitely a disparity there. It will be in the Yankees' best interest to use Phil Coke and Damaso Marte, even if neither inspires a ton of confidence, as often as they can if he comes up in a crucial situation late. Howard had a reputation as a horrible defender, but he's rated close to average recently and projects as average right now.
Jayson Werth's had a pretty interesting career path. He was drafted as a catcher in 1997 by the Orioles with the 22nd pick of the draft. After hitting poorly in A+ and AA in 2000, he was traded to Toronto for John Bale. He was moved to the OF and debuted in 2002 with the Blue Jays, seeing sporadic playing time over 2002 and 2003 before being traded to the Dodgers for Jason Frasor. He hit pretty well in 2004, but an A.J. Burnett pitch broke his left wrist in spring training of 2005, and caused him to scuffle when he played. It took him almost two seasons to recover from continued wrist injuries and he was signed to a one-year deal by the Phillies in 2006. He's hit .276/.376/.494 for the Phillies since then, while seeing time in all three OF spots.
Werth has been much better against lefties in his career (.284/.391/.570 vs. LHP compared to .252/.347/.423 vs. RHP). Again, like with Howard, we need to be aware that 2300 PAs with that kind of split doesn't necessarily mean that Werth's quite that good against lefties/bad against righties, but there's definitely some difference there. While the idea of protection in the batting order in and of itself has generally been shown to be more myth than fact, when you have two guys with diametrically opposite platoon splits like that back to back, it makes it a little harder for the other team to match up with them strategically. If you bring in Coke to get Howard with Werth on deck followed by Raul Ibanez, do you risk Coke against the righty Werth to deal with Ibanez after that, or do you pull Coke for a righty then figure out where to go with Ibanez after that?
Geez, I didn't expect to write so much about Werth.
Anyway, next is the aforementioned Ibanez. From the start of the season through July 30, Ibanez hit .305/.370/640. From July 3 on he hit .219/.311/.411. His overall line was right around where he'd project to be going forward. From 2006 to 2008 Ibanez was rated as one of the worst defenders in baseball, with a combined UZR of -38 in LF. For whatever reason in 2009 he was much better, at +7. He'd project around a -5 defender right now going forward. According to Phillies' manager Charlie Manuel, Ibanez may be DH'ed for the games at DNYS, which obviously makes him a little less harmful defensively.
Pedro Feliz is a very good defensive 3B. He's good enough defensively at 3B that it makees up for a bat that is often close to replacement level. Feliz is only slightly less abysmal against lefties (.252/.288/.417 vs. RHP compared to .259/.307/.438 vs. LHP in his career).
I have this nightmare of Carlos Ruiz playing the Jeff Mathis 'Johnny Bench' role in the World Series for some reason.
The Phillies have Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Ben Francisco, Paul Bako, Eric Bruntlett and Miguel Cairo(Yay!) around on the bench. I'd expect we'll see Stairs and Francisco quite a bit, Stairs as a possible pinch-hitter DH, and Francisco spotted in the OF.
I know that we'll have pitchers "hitting" in at least two games in this series, but I don't do pitcher hitting projections so I just gave a few more PAs to the bench on the assumption that pitchers will be pinch-hit for when necessary. I'll do the same for the Yankees.
Moving on to the Phillies pitching, here are their projections.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | pRA | pERA | pFIP | 09ERA | 09FIP | sIP | sR |
| cliff lee | SP1 | 180 | 189 | 16 | 54 | 126 | 4.02 | 3.75 | 3.87 | 3.14 | 3.30 | 17 | 7.6 |
| pedro martinez | SP2 | 93 | 90 | 12 | 31 | 79 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.25 | 3.62 | 4.12 | 11 | 5.6 |
| cole hamels | SP3 | 187 | 179 | 24 | 49 | 169 | 4.27 | 4.00 | 3.84 | 4.32 | 3.74 | 12 | 5.7 |
| joe blanton | SP4 | 202 | 210 | 25 | 61 | 140 | 4.45 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.06 | 4.43 | 3 | 1.5 |
| brad lidge | CL | 67 | 64 | 9 | 32 | 79 | 5.24 | 4.77 | 3.94 | 7.21 | 5.30 | 4 | 2.3 |
| ryan madson | SU | 84 | 86 | 8 | 27 | 71 | 4.30 | 4.07 | 3.76 | 3.26 | 3.21 | 4 | 1.9 |
| brett myers | SU | 97 | 84 | 10 | 33 | 97 | 3.88 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 4.84 | 6.07 | 4 | 1.7 |
| j.a. happ | MR | 122 | 114 | 13 | 47 | 100 | 3.85 | 3.72 | 4.09 | 2.93 | 4.34 | 2 | 0.9 |
| antonio bastardo | MR | 87 | 91 | 17 | 19 | 67 | 5.42 | 5.07 | 4.81 | 6.46 | 4.93 | 2 | 1.2 |
| chad durbin | MR | 109 | 109 | 16 | 44 | 71 | 5.27 | 4.87 | 5.03 | 4.39 | 4.94 | 2 | 1.2 |
| scott eyre | MR | 44 | 42 | 5 | 20 | 40 | 4.09 | 3.79 | 4.07 | 1.50 | 4.63 | 1 | 0.5 |
| chan ho park | LR | 66 | 62 | 8 | 24 | 39 | 5.30 | 4.83 | 4.73 | 4.02 | 4.46 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Total | 63 | 61 | 7 | 20 | 52 | 4.29 | 4.03 | 4.00 | 30.6 |
pRA: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
pERA: Projected earned runs allowed per nine innings
pFIP: Projected Fielding independent pitching
sIP: Estimated innings in the series
sR: Estimated runs allowed in the series based on revised projection and sIP
The Phillies don't have a set rotation and have been moving pitchers creatively to deal with a bullpen that was less than stellar in 2009. It looks like what we know for sure is that Cliff Lee will start Game 1, Pedro Martinez will start Game 2, and Cole Hamels will start game 3. I'll revise the odds of the games and series as we go, but for now I'm going to go with the assumption that they will try and start Lee three times with Hamels and Pedro going twice each.
As far as the pen, I just mixed the innings around a bit.
Add it all up, and here's what we're looking at.
| #games | 7 |
| home games | 3 |
| #outs | 175 |
| offense | 39.3 |
| pitching | 30.6 |
| defense | 1.2 |
| wpct | .633 |
| 162 gm equiv | 102-60 |
#outs: 25 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season
So you're essentially looking at the equivalent of 102 win team once you factor in offense, defense, pitching and a one game home field disadvantage. How does that stack up against the Yankees and what does it mean as far as the World Series odds? I need to step away from Mom's basement for a bit but I'll add the Yankees to this post in a little while.
And here it is.
Yankees
The Yankees, who have a payroll of $200 million, were able to get through the Twins and Angels to make it to the World Series in the inaugural season of their $1.4 billion disgrace of a new stadium. Of course, the Yankees didn't earn their way to the World Series, they got here by buying a pennant, just like they did in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Oh wait, they didn't? You mean that you can spend a bunch of money but it doesn't guarantee anything? Weird.
Anyway, the Yankees were probably the best team in baseball in 2009. Here's how their position players project as we head into the Fall Classic.
| Lineup | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | pwOBA | 09wOBA | Diff | BR | Outs | dRS |
| derek jeter | ss | 33 | .314 | .382 | .440 | .364 | .384 | .020 | 5 | 20 | -3 |
| johnny damon | lf | 32 | .282 | .357 | .453 | .354 | .369 | .015 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| mark teixeira | 1b | 32 | .292 | .386 | .542 | .397 | .402 | .005 | 6 | 20 | 4 |
| alex rodriguez | 3b | 31 | .293 | .399 | .546 | .405 | .402 | -.003 | 6 | 19 | -4 |
| jorge posada | c | 31 | .288 | .378 | .485 | .376 | .377 | .002 | 5 | 19 | -6 |
| robinson cano | 2b | 28 | .305 | .339 | .485 | .354 | .372 | .018 | 4 | 18 | -1 |
| nick swisher | rf | 26 | .243 | .359 | .461 | .357 | .373 | .016 | 4 | 17 | 2 |
| melky cabrera | cf | 24 | .270 | .328 | .394 | .318 | .328 | .010 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| hideki matsui | dh | 15 | .279 | .363 | .474 | .363 | .375 | .012 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| brett gardner | cf | 6 | .257 | .338 | .342 | .310 | .318 | .008 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| eric hinske | rf | 6 | .238 | .330 | .449 | .339 | .347 | .008 | 1 | 4 | -1 |
| jose molina | c | 6 | .226 | .270 | .319 | .261 | .259 | -.001 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| jerry hairston | ss | 5 | .266 | .317 | .404 | .314 | .302 | -.012 | 1 | 3 | -3 |
| ramiro pena | ss | 0 | .240 | .287 | .304 | .267 | .306 | .039 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| total | 275 | .285 | .366 | .476 | .362 | .372 | .010 | 40 | 175 | 0 |
Derek Jeter, who makes $20M a year, had a nice rebound season in 2009 and has hit .297/.435/.595 so far in the postseason with three HRs, which is second on the team. Although he's still considered a horrendously awful defender by most of the sabermetrically savvy, the empirical fact is that he's been closer to average than bad of late and projects similarly going forward.
JohnnY 'Trader' Damon will bat second and play LF. Damon made $13M this year. His overall postseason line is an unimpressive .238/.273/.405, but he did hit .300/.323/.533 in the ALCS.
I could tell you about Mark Teixeira's offense and defense, but frankly, what I would rather talk about is that he was signed to an eight year/$180M contract. I really wish we'd stop getting articles about the Yankees that don't mention their payroll and budget and the cost of their new stadium.
I guess I'll mention that Teixeria's bat has been MIA for most of the postseason (.205/.273/.308). He's been playing stellar defense though.
Alex Rodriguez will bat cleanup, just like he has since he returned from his hip surgery. Did you know Rodriguez made $32M this season? I wish someone would let us know about that. Rodriguez has just about completely erased the stupid notion that he had some kind of psychological issue or character flaw that caused him to do all his producing in meaningless situation and that he was an unclutch postseason performer. If he can continue this type of play for just four more wins, he may even get honored as a True Yankee™. If I were Rodriguez, I'd tell all the people who are suddenly eager to embrace him after years of crapping on him to kiss my $32M ass.
Hideki Matsui or Jorge Posada will bat fifth most of the time. Matsui won't be able to play in the NL parks because they don't have the DH, although he'll likely get some PH appearances. Posada's defense has looked a little shaky in the postseason, but he's hit pretty well (.258/.361/.484). I could have sworn Matsui has hit .000/.000/.000 so far this postseason, but actually he's hit .233/.395/.367. Interesting note about Matsui and Posada, they both make money to play for the Yankees.
Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera round out the bottom of the lineup. A good ALCS has Cabrera's postseason numbers up to respectability. Cano's numbers are kind of bleh, and Swisher has been awful. It'd be nice to get at least one of Cano or Swisher hitting more like they did in the regular season, especially in those silly games without a DH.
Some combination of Brett Gardner, Jose Molina, Eric Hinske, Francisco Cervelli, Freddy Guzman and Ramiro Pena will make up the bench. Molina will probably get a start or two with A.J. Burnett, even though their great chemistry didn't help much last time out.
As far as the pitching goes, here's how it looks.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | pRA | pERA | pFIP | 09ERA | 09FIP | sIP | sR |
| cc sabathia | SP1 | 229 | 213 | 20 | 63 | 198 | 3.84 | 3.44 | 3.42 | 3.37 | 3.38 | 17 | 7.2 |
| a.j. burnett | SP2 | 197 | 186 | 22 | 71 | 185 | 4.42 | 4.06 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 4.29 | 17 | 8.3 |
| andy pettitte | SP3 | 205 | 219 | 21 | 68 | 149 | 4.82 | 4.35 | 4.05 | 4.16 | 4.19 | 10 | 5.4 |
| mariano rivera | CL | 71 | 55 | 5 | 12 | 69 | 2.32 | 2.18 | 2.72 | 1.76 | 2.94 | 6 | 1.5 |
| phil hughes | SU | 79 | 66 | 5 | 27 | 81 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 3.02 | 3.03 | 3.15 | 3 | 1.2 |
| david robertson | SU | 68 | 60 | 5 | 22 | 69 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.05 | 3.30 | 3.09 | 3 | 1.2 |
| joba chamberlain | MR | 79 | 69 | 6 | 32 | 88 | 3.52 | 3.18 | 3.16 | 4.75 | 4.69 | 3 | 1.2 |
| alfredo aceves | MR | 84 | 72 | 8 | 13 | 59 | 3.91 | 3.63 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 1 | 0.4 |
| damaso marte | MR | 43 | 39 | 4 | 19 | 41 | 5.02 | 4.68 | 3.97 | 9.47 | 5.53 | 1 | 0.6 |
| phil coke | MR | 61 | 63 | 6 | 15 | 46 | 4.73 | 4.41 | 3.62 | 4.50 | 4.73 | 1 | 0.5 |
| chad gaudin | MR | 102 | 104 | 13 | 42 | 79 | 4.82 | 4.45 | 4.54 | 3.43 | 5.18 | 1 | 0.5 |
| mark melancon | LR | 62 | 62 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 5.11 | 4.70 | 3.95 | 3.87 | 3.81 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 63 | 59 | 6 | 20 | 56 | 4.02 | 3.66 | 3.55 | 28.1 |
The assumption here is the Yankee will risk going with a three man rotation of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. With Sabathia, the evidence shows it's a risk worth taking. With Burnett, we do have a handful of starts that show he's been able to do it in the past as well. With Pettitte, we have 14 games started on three days rest in his career but none since 2006. I think it's a chance worth taking, the Yankees probably just need to have a long reliever shadowing in case of disaster, be it Gaudin or Aceves.
As far as the pen, it's Mo and the Musketeers. Hopefully Hughes pitches more like he did in the regular season than he has in the postseason so far. I'd like to see David Robertson pitch a little more, and as I mentioned with the Phillies we're probably going to see more Coke and Marte.
Adding up the Yankees offense, defense and pitching gives us this
| #games | 7 |
| home games | 4 |
| #outs | 175 |
| offense | 40.4 |
| pitching | 28.1 |
| defense | -0.3 |
| wpct | .666 |
| 162 gm equiv | 108-54 |
So even before we think about the possible difference in leagues, the Yankees should be slight favorites in this series.
So what of the league difference? I haven't had the time to see if it's changed in 2009, but prior to this season I had the AL around 4% better than the NL. I arrived at this by looking at players who switched leagues and comparing how they ended up doing compared to how we should have projected them to do. In general, players who moved from the NL did 4% worse than they'd have projected to, and players who made the opposite switch did 4% better.
As far as translating that to wins at a team level, I'd probably just multiply the expected winning percentage of the Phillies by 0.96 to get them to an AL equivalent. So instead of being a .633/102 win team, they'd be more like a .607/98 win team in the AL.
So what happens if we play out the World Series 10,000 times in my Monte Carlo simulator using the projections and playing time estimates in this post?
Yankees: 58.7%
Phillies: 41.3%
Go Yankees.
Yahoo: Yankees may add Hinske to World Series roster
The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies have until 10 a.m. Eastern tomorrow to set their rosters for the World Series and the rumor is that both could make some slight alterations.
The Yankees are apparently flip-flopping between adding left-handed hitter Eric Hinske(notes) or a 12th pitcher, according to the New York Post. The pitcher in question is supposedly right-handed reliever Brian Bruney(notes). “You could see us with 12 pitchers and you could see us change our roster,” Yanks general manager Brian Cashman coyly told the Post.
With three potential games without a DH, I think they HAVE to add Hinske, even if they have Hideki Matsui available as the first pinch hitting option. Getting Freddie Guzman off the roster may be necessary to Girardi-proof things. I also think it’s pretty hard to make a case to add Brian Bruney to the bullpen when you look at how the pen was used in the ALCS:
Mariano Rivera: 7 IP
Phil Hughes: 2.2 IP
David Robertson: 2 IP
Joba Chamberlain: 1.2 IP
Damaso Marte: 1.1 IP
Alfredo Aceves: 1.1 IP
Chad Gaudin: 1 IP
Phil Coke: 0.2 IP
Maybe instead of adding Bruney they could use Robertson for an extra third of an inning or something. Marte and Coke will also need to be used more in the World Series because of the Phils’ lefty bats. I was thinking dump Gaudin if they want to add Bruney, but he could be very useful in a ‘get Jayson Werth’ ROOGY type spot or two.
I’m waiting for rosters to be announced before doing any preview type crap, so I’ll look to get that up later today or tomorrow morning.
Monday, October 26, 2009
2009 ALCS Run Values
I was thinking about the fact that CC Sabathia was named ALCS MVP over Alex Rodriguez, so I thought I should see if there was a way to compare their actual contributions. Then I figured I may as well do it for everyone who played in the ALCS, so here it is.
| Name | TEAM | Pos | PA/IP | BR/Rsaa |
| Alex Rodriguez | NYY | 3B | 29 | 5.72 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | SP | 16.0 | 5.17 |
| Jeff Mathis | LAA | C | 12 | 3.25 |
| Mariano Rivera | NYY | RP | 7.0 | 2.14 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | LAA | DH | 28 | 2.01 |
| Andy Pettitte | NYY | SP | 12.7 | 1.68 |
| Melky Cabrera | NYY | CF | 26 | 1.37 |
| Derek Jeter | NYY | SS | 33 | 0.99 |
| Johnny Damon | NYY | LF | 31 | 0.95 |
| David Robertson | NYY | RP | 2.0 | 0.90 |
| Howard Kendrick | LAA | 2B | 15 | 0.86 |
| Kevin Jepsen | LAA | RP | 3.7 | 0.64 |
| Damaso Marte | NYY | RP | 1.3 | 0.60 |
| Robinson Cano | NYY | 2B | 27 | 0.56 |
| Brett Gardner | NYY | CF | 3 | 0.48 |
| Chad Gaudin | NYY | RP | 1.0 | 0.45 |
| Torii Hunter | LAA | CF | 28 | 0.43 |
| Brian Fuentes | LAA | RP | 3.0 | 0.34 |
| Jorge Posada | NYY | C | 25 | 0.31 |
| Phil Coke | NYY | RP | 0.7 | 0.30 |
| Phil Hughes | NYY | RP | 2.7 | 0.20 |
| Jerry Hairston Jr. | NYY | 3B | 2 | 0.13 |
| Jason Bulger | LAA | RP | 2.3 | 0.05 |
| Reggie Willits | LAA | CF | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jose Molina | NYY | C | 3 | -0.09 |
| Darren Oliver | LAA | RP | 6.3 | -0.16 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | SP | 6.3 | -0.16 |
| Francisco Cervelli | NYY | C | 1 | -0.22 |
| Freddy Guzman | NYY | LF | 1 | -0.22 |
| Joba Chamberlain | NYY | RP | 1.7 | -0.25 |
| Erick Aybar | LAA | SS | 21 | -0.33 |
| Joe Saunders | LAA | SP | 10.3 | -0.37 |
| Ervin Santana | LAA | RP | 5.7 | -0.46 |
| Hideki Matsui | NYY | DH | 26 | -0.49 |
| Gary Matthews | LAA | CF | 5 | -0.70 |
| Maicer Izturis | LAA | 2B | 11 | -1.07 |
| Alfredo Aceves | NYY | RP | 1.3 | -1.40 |
| Mike Napoli | LAA | C | 9 | -1.41 |
| John Lackey | LAA | SP | 12.3 | -1.47 |
| Mark Teixeira | NYY | 1B | 30 | -1.60 |
| Bobby Abreu | LAA | RF | 29 | -1.74 |
| Kendry Morales | LAA | 1B | 25 | -1.89 |
| Nick Swisher | NYY | RF | 23 | -2.15 |
| Juan Rivera | LAA | LF | 25 | -2.27 |
| A.J. Burnett | NYY | SP | 12.3 | -2.47 |
| Matt Palmer | LAA | RP | 2.7 | -2.80 |
| Chone Figgins | LAA | 3B | 26 | -2.81 |
| Scott Kazmir | LAA | SP | 4.7 | -2.91 |
I still haven't found any place that is tracking postseason defense, so I'm just looking at offense and pitching. The last column is the runs above average for each player. In this case, for hitters, I'm comparing their linear weights batting runs per PA to the ALCS average. So if we look at Rodriguez, he created 9.2 BR(batting runs) in 29 PAs, compared to the ALCS average of 59.35 in 494 PA. (9.2/29 - 59.35/494) gives us how many BR per PA he was above average, then multiplying that by his actual PA (29) gives us a total. In this case, 5.72. I'm not adjusting for park or for position.
For pitchers, I'm just using ALCS average RA minus pitcher RA divided by nine to get the rate of runs allowed per IP, then multiplying by IP. So for CC, it's 4.03 minus 1.13 divided by nine, which gives us CC saving .323 runs per IP compared to the ALCS average. Multiply that by the 16 IP and we get 5.17 runs saved above average.
It's pretty interesting to see how much greater Mo's impact can be in the postseason, simply by virtue of the percentage of IP he is responsible for compared to the regular season. Factoring in leverage, you can probably go back through the years and make a case for Mo as MVP in several postseasons.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
2009 AL Postseason Pitching Stats Through Game Four of the ALCS
| player | tm | ip | h | r | er | bb | so | hr | ir | is | bf | ra | era | fip | rsaa |
| C.C. Sabathia | NYY | 22.7 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 1.59 | 1.19 | 2.54 | 5.08 |
| Mariano Rivera | NYY | 8.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.82 | 3.20 |
| Darren Oliver | LAA | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| A.J. Burnett | NYY | 12.3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 4.25 | 1.94 |
| Nick Blackburn | MIN | 5.7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 3.20 | 1.27 |
| John Lackey | LAA | 13.0 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 2.77 | 1.39 | 3.05 | 1.20 |
| Daniel Bard | BOS | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1.20 |
| David Robertson | NYY | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.54 | 1.20 |
| Andy Pettitte | NYY | 12.7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 2.84 | 2.84 | 4.31 | 1.07 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | 12.3 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 2.92 | 2.92 | 5.80 | 0.94 |
| Joe Saunders | LAA | 7.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 4.06 | 0.80 |
| Carl Pavano | MIN | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 4.34 | 0.80 |
| Matt Guerrier | MIN | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Phil Coke | NYY | 1.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.44 | 0.53 |
| Brian Fuentes | LAA | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 6.75 | 0.47 |
| Chad Gaudin | NYY | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| Takashi Saito | BOS | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| Jason Bulger | LAA | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 2.70 | 2.70 | 8.61 | 0.33 |
| Damaso Marte | NYY | 0.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.26 |
| Hideki Okajima | BOS | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.13 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 5.80 | 0.00 |
| Ramon Ramirez | BOS | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joba Chamberlain | NYY | 2.3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.47 | -0.07 |
| Ervin Santana | LAA | 4.7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 3.86 | 1.93 | 3.63 | -0.13 |
| Kevin Jepsen | LAA | 4.7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 6.00 | -0.14 |
| Philip Hughes | NYY | 4.3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 4.19 | 4.19 | 1.57 | -0.28 |
| Ron Mahay | MIN | 1.7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5.42 | 5.42 | 2.60 | -0.34 |
| Jon Rauch | MIN | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6.77 | 6.77 | 7.71 | -0.47 |
| Jon Lester | BOS | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5.70 | -0.60 |
| Jose Mijares | MIN | 0.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13.64 | 13.64 | 27.44 | -0.74 |
| Alfredo Aceves | NYY | 2.3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7.73 | 7.73 | 6.20 | -1.07 |
| Francisco Liriano | MIN | 2.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9.00 | 4.50 | 10.20 | -1.20 |
| Joe Nathan | MIN | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9.05 | 9.05 | 9.23 | -1.20 |
| Josh Beckett | BOS | 6.7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 5.41 | 5.41 | 3.20 | -1.33 |
| Billy Wagner | BOS | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 18.18 | 18.18 | 2.19 | -1.60 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | BOS | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 5.20 | -2.20 |
| Matt Palmer | LAA | 2.7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 13.53 | 13.53 | 7.71 | -2.93 |
| Brian Duensing | MIN | 4.7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 9.66 | 9.66 | 5.35 | -3.13 |
| Scott Kazmir | LAA | 10.0 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 8.10 | 8.10 | 5.80 | -4.99 |
ir: Inherited runners
is: Inherited runners allowed to score
fip: Fielding independent pitching. Regresses batting average on balls in play to average by focusing on HRs, BBs and Ks by a pitcher.
rsaa: Runs saved above average, calculated as lg RA (in the postseason) minus pitcher RA divided by nine times IP by the specific pitcher.
How do you win six of seven playoff games? Having three of the four most valuable pitchers so far this postseason certainly helps.
I think my Excel spreadsheet is broken, because this chart shows Josh Beckett as worse than average, and we all know he dominates in the postseason. It also shows that CC Sabathia has been very good in the postseason. In fact, he's been the most valuable pitcher in the AL so far. We know that's not possible because prior to this year he had FIVE bad postseason starts.
I'll work on finding and fixing the bug.
Mariano Rivera has seen more inherited runners than any pitcher in the AL so far this postseason, and he's stranded all but one of them. If he continues to perform like that, he may have a future in MLB.
Burnett's FIP says he's probably been a little lucky to have a 2.19 RA, but actual runs allowed are what matters here, so whether he's been slightly fortunate or good, he's been valuable.
Aside from Alfredo Aceves, the rest of the Yankee pitchers have done pretty well, even Phil Hughes has pitched ok despite allowing 2 runs, if you believe FIP.
Now we just need it to continue for five more wins.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Yankees.com: Yanks walk off to stay perfect in playoffs
NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez rescued the Yankees with a home run in the 11th inning and Maicer Izturis committed a game-ending throwing error in the 13th as the Yankees defeated the Angels, 4-3, in an instant classic on Saturday in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.
This game was not particularly pretty to watch, but it was a great example of the type of prolonged tension and drama that postseason baseball can provide.
After four innings, with a 2-0 lead and A.J. Burnett cruising, it seemed like it’d end up being an easy Yankee victory. Then Burnett gave up two in the fifth and it was all tied up. Burnett was overall very good though, allowing just two runs in 6.1 innings.
Neither team scored again as the game went into the 11th. The Yankee pen after Burnett was effective, as Phil Coke, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes got the ball to Mariano Rivera, who retired 7 of the 8 batters he faced. Alfredo Aceves relieved Mo in the 11th, and gave up a run that put the Angels up 3-2. That brought in Brian Fuentes to try and close out the game against Alex Rodriguez, pinch runner #1 Freddie Guzman, and pinch runner #2 TSBG. Rodriguez took two called strikes, then on 0-2 lined a fastball up in the strike zone towards the short porch in RF. Bobby Abreu leaped but couldn’t catch it, and the game was tied.
Quite frankly, the Yankees may have won all of their postseason games so far, but they’ve pretty much hit like crap. If not for great pitching and Alex Rodriguez, they probably wouldn’t even be playing right now. Thankfully, they’ve had both.
In the top of the 13th, Robinson Cano’s second error of the game almost cost the Yankees the lead, as it led to the Angels getting two runners on with one out. David Robertson was able to retire Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero to preserve the tie and pick up Cano. In the bottom of the 13th, Jerry Hairston Jr. led off with a single in his first postseason and was bunted over to second by TSBG. The Angels elected to walk Cano, then the Izturis error gave the Yankees a win.
There were things that were annoying about this game, but I’ll post about that tomorrow. For now, we should probably just enjoy a win that the Yankees probably didn’t deserve.
Monday, October 12, 2009
2009 ALDS Run Values for Pitchers
| Pitcher | Bos | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| John Lackey | LAA | 1 | 1 | 7.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.52 | 2.99 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | 1 | 1 | 7.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 2.11 | 1.99 |
| Andy Pettitte* | NYY | 1 | 1 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.58 |
| Mariano Rivera | NYY | 3 | 0 | 3.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1.49 |
| A.J. Burnett | NYY | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.70 | 1.44 |
| Nick Blackburn | Min | 1 | 1 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 3.20 | 1.31 |
| Daniel Bard | Bos | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 1.22 |
| Darren Oliver* | LAA | 3 | 0 | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.49 | 0.95 |
| Carl Pavano | Min | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 4.34 | 0.85 |
| Matt Guerrier | Min | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.81 |
| CC Sabathia* | NYY | 1 | 1 | 6.2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2.70 | 1.35 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| Brian Fuentes* | LAA | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.68 |
| Joba Chamberlain | NYY | 3 | 0 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.68 |
| Jason Bulger | LAA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 | 0.41 |
| Alfredo Aceves | NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 | 0.41 |
| David Robertson | NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.41 |
| Phil Coke* | NYY | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| Hideki Okajima* | Bos | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.14 |
| Clay Buchholz | Bos | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 5.20 | 0.04 |
| Ramon Ramirez | Bos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damaso Marte* | NYY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ron Mahay* | Min | 3 | 0 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 2.60 | -0.32 |
| Kevin Jepsen | LAA | 2 | 0 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 1.70 | -0.46 |
| Jon Rauch | Min | 3 | 0 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.70 | -0.46 |
| Jon Lester* | Bos | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5.70 | -0.56 |
| Takashi Saito | Bos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 3.20 | -0.59 |
| Jose Mijares* | Min | 2 | 0 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 27.20 | -0.73 |
| Francisco Liriano* | Min | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9.00 | 4.50 | 10.20 | -1.19 |
| Joe Nathan | Min | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.20 | -1.19 |
| Phil Hughes | NYY | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 1.70 | -1.19 |
| Josh Beckett | Bos | 1 | 1 | 6.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 2.75 | -1.28 |
| Billy Wagner* | Bos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 2.20 | -1.59 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | Bos | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 5.20 | -2.19 |
| Scott Kazmir* | LAA | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 6.53 | -2.56 |
| Brian Duensing* | Min | 1 | 1 | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9.64 | 9.64 | 5.34 | -3.10 |
| Lg Total | 56 | 12 | 101.7 | 91 | 44 | 42 | 9 | 36 | 90 | 3.67 | 3.50 | 3.62 |
RSAA: Runs saved above average (postseason lg RA - pitcher RA divided by 9 times IP).
| G | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAA |
| NYY | 17 | 3 | 26.9 | 29 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 2.01 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 5.8 |
| LAA | 11 | 3 | 25.6 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 3.40 | 4.0 |
| MIN | 16 | 3 | 24.9 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 5.42 | 5.06 | 5.65 | -4.0 |
| BOS | 12 | 3 | 24.3 | 24 | 16 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 5.93 | 5.93 | 4.02 | -4.8 |
The pitchers are dominating the hitters so far in the AL postseason. Aside from Phil Hughes and Damaso Marte (who got bailed out by David Robertson and Mark Teixeira after allowing three hits to two batters), the Yankee pitching is kicking ass. Of course, it helps that they faced the worst of the AL postseason offenses.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
How Good Are the 2009 ALDS Version of the Yankees On a Spreadsheet?
Since this is a Yankee site, it's probably time to run the Yankees through the same numbers that I ran the Tigers and Twins through.The idea here is that using just 2009 data and stats for the entire team doesn't really do a good job of telling how good a team as currently constituted really is. Does it matter that Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, Chien-Ming Wang and Anthony Claggett combined to be be 51 runs worse than replacement level when trying to assess how good the Yankees are right now? Obviously not, just like it doesn't matter how awful John Smoltz and Brad Penny where when assessing how good the Red Sox are. The same holds for every other team in the postseason. This is why using Pythagorean record or actual winning percentage doesn't really give us that much useful information.
So let's look at the Yankees' postseason roster and their projections and try to figure out how good they really are right now. First up, the position players.
| Lineup | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | pwOBA | 09wOBA | Diff | BR | Outs | dRS |
| derek jeter | ss | 23 | .314 | .382 | .440 | .364 | .384 | .020 | 3 | 14 | -3 |
| johnny damon | lf | 22 | .282 | .357 | .453 | .354 | .369 | .015 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| mark teixeira | 1b | 22 | .292 | .386 | .542 | .397 | .402 | .005 | 4 | 14 | 4 |
| alex rodriguez | 3b | 21 | .293 | .399 | .546 | .405 | .402 | -.003 | 4 | 13 | -4 |
| hideki matsui | dh | 21 | .279 | .363 | .474 | .363 | .375 | .012 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| jorge posada | c | 16 | .288 | .378 | .485 | .376 | .377 | .002 | 2 | 10 | -6 |
| robinson cano | 2b | 19 | .305 | .339 | .485 | .354 | .372 | .018 | 3 | 13 | -1 |
| nick swisher | rf | 19 | .243 | .359 | .461 | .357 | .373 | .016 | 3 | 12 | 2 |
| melky cabrera | cf | 10 | .270 | .328 | .394 | .318 | .328 | .010 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| brett gardner | cf | 10 | .257 | .338 | .342 | .310 | .318 | .008 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| eric hinske | rf | 4 | .238 | .330 | .449 | .339 | .347 | .008 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| jose molina | c | 6 | .226 | .270 | .319 | .261 | .259 | -.001 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| jerry hairston | ss | 2 | .266 | .317 | .404 | .314 | .302 | -.012 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
| ramiro pena | ss | 1 | .240 | .287 | .304 | .267 | .306 | .039 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| total | 196 | .285 | .366 | .476 | 29 | 125 | 0 |
PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.
As you can see from these numbers, just about every Yankee player had better numbers in '09 than they'd be projected to have going forward. That may seem harsh, but it doesn't change the fact that this is a very good team, probably the best team in the postseason right now.
Derek Jeter had an outstanding 2009. Unfortunately, he didn't have an outstanding 2008 and we can't ignore that. Still, he's probably the best leadoff hitter on any of the playoff teams, although you can possibly make a case for Chone Figgins if you squint a little. Jeter even played passable defense this year, and at this point the defensive metrics project him to be just a touch below average. Of course, these metrics were infallible when they showed Jeter at -20, but now that they show him as decent we need to ensure we are aware of their limitations.
Johnny Damon also had a very good 2009, although he hit .215/.319/.278 over his last 92 PAs. A free agent in 2010, Damon's probably auditioning for his next contract, and a good postseason probably earns him a few extra million. His glove and arm in LF have left something to be desired this year, although his projected range is about average. The arm though...
Mark Teixeira had a great year, although he's not really a worth MVP candidate. He's a switch-hitter who has generally had a higher OBP versus lefties and a little more power against righties (.282/.373/.579 career vs. righties and .305/.400/.511 vs. lefties). Despite what 2009 UZR says, Teixeira's glove projects as a slight positive once you factor in past performance.
Until he actually does well in the postseason, the spotlight is going to be on Alex Rodriguez. We know he has the ability to carry the team if he gets hot, and we also know we're going to keep reading about if if he doesn't do well.
Hideki Matsui may be nearing the end of his Yankee career. If so, he had a fine last season and could really punctuate it with a good postseason. Matsui has hit .302/.372/.506 in five postseasons with the Yanks, although he's had a couple of clunkers in there as well.
I guess this is where I'm supposed to flip out about Jose Molina being penciled in to catch A.J. Burnett since it will take Jorge Posada's bat out of the lineup. The thing is, I can't seem to really get that worked up about it. I wouldn't try to deny that there's something to a pitcher-catcher relationship that we can't quantify, and I'd also imagine that Molina would only bat 2-3 times in a game anyway. If you end up with Molina batting in a high-leverage situation after the fifth inning, is there any doubt that he'll be pinch-hit for? Anyway, this paragraph is supposed to be about Jorge Posada. I've adjusted the playing time in the table to assume Molina starts twice. Posada's generally had poor postseasons in his career, but I'm sure fatigue was an issue. He got plenty of rest this year, so despite his advanced age I think he's primed for a good postseason. Maybe the Molina thing will give him an extra kick in the ass too...
Robinson Cano rebounded from a dismal 2008 to have a nice offensive year, although his performance with runners on base was pretty bad. Whether that's due to a change in approach or just due to the vagaries of a selected set of PAs, we don't know. Cano seemed to have a good defensive year, so I'm having trouble reconciling the fact that zone rating and UZR saw him as a touch below average.
Nick Swisher and Melky Cabrera round out the probable starters in RF and CF respectively, then you have the bench of Brett Gardner, Eric Hinske, the aforementioned Molina, Jerry Hairston and probably Freddy Guzman. I gave Gardner 10 PAs but he probably won't start if Girardi wants to keep him as a tactical option for baserunning and as a defensive replacement, but no matter how you allocate the playing time between Gardner and Melky the difference is probably negligible over five games.
The Yankee offense is probably the best one in the postseason once you adjust for park and league. The defense looks around average too, which is very unusual for the Yankees.
So, the pitching...
| Pitcher | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | pRA | pERA | pFIP | 09ERA | 09FIP | sIP | sR |
| cc sabathia | SP1 | 229 | 213 | 20 | 63 | 198 | 3.84 | 3.44 | 3.42 | 3.37 | 3.38 | 12 | 5.1 |
| a.j. burnett | SP2 | 197 | 186 | 22 | 71 | 185 | 4.42 | 4.06 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 4.29 | 12 | 5.9 |
| andy pettitte | SP3 | 205 | 219 | 21 | 68 | 149 | 4.82 | 4.35 | 4.05 | 4.16 | 4.19 | 6 | 3.2 |
| mariano rivera | CL | 71 | 55 | 5 | 12 | 69 | 2.32 | 2.18 | 2.72 | 1.76 | 2.94 | 3 | 0.8 |
| phil hughes | SU | 99 | 95 | 10 | 33 | 86 | 4.34 | 4.08 | 3.70 | 3.03 | 3.15 | 3 | 1.4 |
| david robertson | SU | 68 | 60 | 5 | 22 | 69 | 3.70 | 3.43 | 3.05 | 3.30 | 3.09 | 3 | 1.2 |
| alfredo aceves | MR | 140 | 120 | 13 | 22 | 98 | 3.91 | 3.63 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 2 | 0.9 |
| joba chamberlain | MR | 131 | 114 | 10 | 54 | 146 | 3.52 | 3.18 | 3.16 | 4.75 | 4.69 | 2 | 0.8 |
| damaso marte | MR | 43 | 39 | 4 | 19 | 41 | 5.02 | 4.68 | 3.97 | 9.47 | 5.53 | 1 | 0.6 |
| phil coke | MR | 61 | 63 | 6 | 15 | 46 | 4.73 | 4.41 | 3.62 | 4.50 | 4.73 | 1 | 0.5 |
| chad gaudin | MR | 102 | 104 | 13 | 42 | 79 | 4.82 | 4.45 | 4.54 | 3.43 | 5.18 | 0 | 0.0 |
| mark melancon | LR | 62 | 62 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 5.11 | 4.70 | 3.95 | 3.87 | 3.81 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 45 | 42 | 4 | 14 | 40 | 4.08 | 3.73 | 3.57 | 20.4 |
The assumptions here are that C.C. and A.J. get two starts each, and that Joba Chamberlain is in the bullpen.
The only starting pitcher in the postseason with a better projection than Sabathia is Chris Carpenter, although you can probably make a case that Jon Lester's projection contains data that isn't very relevant to him anymore from when he was fighting cancer. Critics point to the fact that Sabathia has had a bad postseason track record (in a whopping five starts), but I generally weigh 288 starts of good to great quality more than five starts. THat's just me though.
A.J. Burnett is the wild card for the Yankees. He could pitch a gem or he could be torched in any start against any opponent. Let's hope for gems.
Andy Pettitte had a very solid season in 2009 and slots in comfortably in the #3 slot. I thought that pitching him in game 3 on turf was a bad idea, but looking at his three year splits he's actually been better on turf.
As far as the pen. You've got Mo, who continues to excel even though he's lost a tick off his velocity. Phil Hughes was the most effective setup reliever in the American League. David Robertson brings the stuff to get a big strikeout when needed, Alfredo Aceves can come in and give you 3-4 innings if you need it. I have no idea what Joba will do, but we all know about his ability. Note that Hughes and Chamberlain's projections are as relievers. Phil Coke and Damaso Marte give the Yankees a couple of lefties with decent stuff to matchup with, which will be important against Mauer, Kubel and Span. Both are not without flaws though. I threw Chad Gaudin's projection up but didn't give him any innings. He could be very useful out of the pen, especially if spotted against righties.
The Yankee staff has the second best projected strikeout rate of any of the teams in the postseason, just a hair behind Boston (7.96 to 8.05). They have the third best projected walk rate and third best projected HR rate (just look at the Twins post for all the rankings).
So what does all this tell us?
| #games | 5 |
| home games | 3 |
| #outs | 125 |
| offense | 28.6 |
| pitching | 20.4 |
| defense | 0.0 |
| wpct | .660 |
| 162 gm equiv | 107-55 |
Standard disclaimer about the inherent limitations of projections goes here. Player talent can change in ways that objective projection systems won't pick up on, so nothing here is absolute.
The ALDS version of the Yankees looks like a team that would win close to 2/3 of their games. So running the Twins vs. Yankees 10,000 times on my Monte Carlo playoff simulator, I get these ALDS odds:
Yankees: 79.5%
Twins: 20.5%
The Twins can beat the Yankees, and they might. But the odds are pretty long against it.
Update: Yankees.com has the ALDS roster up.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
2009: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (Second Half Edition)
Part 2 of my quick season review of some of the key moments in the Yankees season, with Part 1 available here. Feel free to mention anything you think I may have missed in the comments.
July 17: Yankees 5, Tigers 3
Phil Hughes pitches two innings in relief of A.J. Burnett, striking out six batters, and the Yankees score three in the bottom of the seventh off noted Yankee-hater Joel Zumaya when Jeter singles, Damon doubles, and Mark Teixeira goes yard.
July 18: Yankees 2, Tigers 1
Sabathia goes seven scoreless to outduel Verlander. This is a more appropriate order of the words Sabathia, outduel, and Verlander.
July 20: Yankees 2, Orioles 1
All these walkoffs… This time it’s Matsui going deep off Jim Johnson in the bottom of the ninth.
July 25: Yankees 4, Athletics 6
Gio Gonzalez enters this game with an ERA of 9.33, then holds the Yankees to two hits and one run over six plus innings.
August 1: Yankees 4, White Sox 14
The Yankees drop their third straight game to the White Sox in Chicago, with A.J. Burnett and Phil Coke getting bombed.
August 2: Yankees 8, White Sox 5
Melky hits for the cycle as the Yankees stave off a sweep.
August 4: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3
The Yankees are able to score five runs off the not-traded Roy Halladay, while Pettitte holds the Jays to one run over 6 2/3.
August 6: Yankees 13, Red Sox 6
The Yankees host Boston and finally win against them, as they pound John Smoltz so hard he winds up in another league. David Robertson fans 3 in 2/3 of an inning. Yes, really.
August 7: Yankees 2, Red Sox 0
Arguably Burnett’s best moment as a Yankee in 2009 so far, as he holds the Red Sox to one hit and no runs over 7 2/3 innings, matching zeroes with Josh Beckett. Alfredo Aceves pitches three scoreless innings and Brian Bruney pitches two, and then Alex Rodriguez takes Junichi Tazawa deep in the 15th inning in yet another walkoff win.
August 8: Yankees 5, Red Sox 0
C.C. schools the Red Sox, pitching 7 2/3 shutout innings allowing just two hits.
August 9: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2
Going for the sweep against the Red Sox, the Yankees take a 1-0 lead in the seventh on an A-Rod homer off Jon Lester, then Victor Martinez takes Phil Coke yard for a two-run HR in the top of the eighth. Daniel Bard gets Matsui and Jeter to ground out in the bottom of the eighth, then Damon and Teix go back to back to give the Yankees a 3-2 lead. A Nick Swisher RBI single plates two insurance runs and then Mo did his thing, although he allowed a single and a walk before nailing it down.
August 12: Yankees 4, Blue Jays 3
Robinson Cano singles in Alex Rodriguez in the 11th for another walkoff win.
August 17: Yankees 0, Athletics 3
Recently DFA’d Brett Tomko and three relievers combine to shut out the Yankees.
August 21: Yankees 20, Red Sox 11
With the Red Sox on the verge of trading Brad Penny for a ‘Smoak-type bat’, the Yankees pound him for 10 hits and eight runs over four innings and reduce Penny’s value to waiver wire fodder. I just wish that the Yankees wouldn’t have gone for the two point conversion after the third touchdown. It didn’t change the win expectancy at all.
August 23: Yankees 8, Red Sox 4
The Yankees take sweep two of three from Boston in Boston, winning the finale behind Sabathia while Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez and Hideki Matsui (twice) all homer off Beckett.
August 25: Yankees 9, Rangers 10
Joba gets smacked around, and the Yankees enter the bottom of the ninth trailing 10-5. Damon led off with a single, and then Teixeira walked. Rodriguez walked, and then Matsui singled driving in Damon. Posada singles to drive in Teixeira, then Cano singles to drive in Rodriguez and Matsui. So with the score at 10-9, with no outs and runners on first and second, Girardi has Swisher bunt. The bunt is popped in the air for the first out, then a line out double play by Melky Cabrera ends the game.
August 28: Yankees 5, White Sox 2
Another Cano walkoff, this time a three-run HR of lefty Randy Williams.
August 29: Yankees 10, White Sox 0
Sergio Mitre was mostly awful as a Yankee in 2009, but this was his finest moment as he pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings, allowing just one hit before being hit by a batted ball and leaving the game.
September 4: Yankees 0, Blue Jays 6
A Ramiro Pena double in the sixth turns out to be the only Yankee hit of the game as Roy Halladay pitches masterfully.
September 8: Yankees 3, Rays 2
Phil Hughes gets his first blown save of the year when he allows a leadoff HR to Jason Bartlett in the top of the eighth with a 2-1 lead, but Swisher takes Dan Wheeler deep in the bottom of the ninth for the 3-2 win.
September 14: Yankees 5, Angels 3
In a truly stunning occurrence, the Yankees beat the Angels in the makeup of an early season rainout. Brett Gardner pinch ran for Mark Teixeira, who had doubled. Rodriguez walked, then a double steal led to an error by the Angels catcher and Gardner scored what would end up being the winning run.
September 16: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4
Francisco Cervelli joins the walkoff party, singling past a drawn-in infield with Gardner on third.
September 18: Yankees 2, Mariners 3
Burnett matches Felix Hernandez and then some, and the Yankees lead 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth. Mo Ks the first two batters, then throws two more pitches. One is hit for a double by Mike Sweeney, who I could have swore retired like five years ago. The second is hit by Ichiro for a game-winning two-run HR.
September 22: Yankees 6, Angels 5
After dropping three of their first four games on their last West Coast road trip of the year, the Yankees pulled this one out after a Hughes blown save tied the game at five in the bottom of the eighth.
September 23: Yankees 3, Angels 2
Yankees finish off the West Coast trip by taking the rubber game against the Angels behind Burnett, Cano and Cabrera.
September 25 - September 27 vs. Boston
With an AL East magic number of five and hosting Boston for three games, the Yankees needed to win all three games if they wanted to clinch.
September 25: Yankees 9, Red Sox 5. Chamberlain and the Yanks beat Lester.
September 26: Yankees 3, Red Sox 0. Sabathia one-hits the Red Sox over seven innings.
September 27: Yankees 4, Red Sox 2. Andy Pettitte gets the win, and the Yankees clinch the AL East.
September 29: Yankees 4, Royals 3
With a 3-2 lead and Joakim Soria unavailable, the Royals went to Kyle Farnsworth to get the save. Two outs and two runs later, the Yankees had their last walkoff of the season.
It really has been a wonderful season to be a Yankee fan.
Monday, October 5, 2009
2009: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (First Half Edition)
I used to a do a quick season review of some of the key games in the Yankees season, although I didn’t do it in 2007 or 2008. With a couple of off days before the postseason starts, I thought it might be a good time to sit back and reflect on some of the 2009 season’s key moments and games. I’m going to split it into two posts, so this one is just focused on the first half. I’m obviously going to miss some along the way, so feel to add to the list in the comments.
Click on the date and score to go to the boxscore of the game.
April 6: Yankees 5, Orioles 10
C.C. Sabathia gets bombed in his Yankee debut, allowing six runs and walking five hitters and not making it out of the fifth, causing me to re-run his CAIRO projection.
April 8: Yankees 5, Orioles 7
Panic city, as the Yankees fell to 0-2. More troublesome was Chien-Ming Wang giving us a preview of what would end up being a disaster of a season as he allowed seven runs and nine hits before being pulled in the fourth.
April 9: Yankees 11, Orioles 2
A.J. Burnett pitches well as the Yankees finally win a game. Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher all homer, giving us a preview of what we’d be seeing 243 times in 2009.
April 15: Yankees 4, Rays 3
After splitting the first two games of a three game series with one of the teams the Yankees were expected to be fighting for a playoff spot, the Yankees entered the eighth inning trailing 3-2. Derek Jeter led off the eighth with a double, and Johnny Damon followed up with another one to tie the game at 3.
What happened in the ninth is still perhaps the most unexpected thing to ever happen on a baseball field. After a Brett Gardner strikeout, Cody Ransom doubled off Troy Percival. Yes, that Cody Ransom. After a Jose Molina lineout, Derek Jeter singled in Ransom to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead, and a perfect ninth by Mariano Rivera sealed the win.
April 16: Yankees 2, Indians 10
The Yankees drop the opener in NYS when Jose Veras and Damaso Marte give up nine runs in the 7th.
April 17: Yankees 6, Indians 5
After a solid first start, Joba Chamberlain got touched up in his second one and the Yankees trailed 5-3, before tallying single runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, the last run coming on Jeter’s third homer of the season. Jeter hit his third homer of 2008 on June 1.
April 18: Yankees 4, Indians 22
NYS reveals how disgraceful it will end up being as the Indians hit six HRs and score 16 runs in the first 3 innings off Wang and Anthony Claggett, who didn’t have much of a Yankee career before being waived last month.
April 22: Yankees 9, Athletics 7
With a 6-4 lead in the seventh, Sabathia gives up a pair to tie it. The Yanks and A’s trade zeroes until the fourteenth, when Melky Cabrera takes former Yankee Dan Giese for the win. This would be the first of 15 walkoff wins. It was the Yankees’ third straight win, which supposedly gave them momentum heading into…
April 24: Yankees 4, Red Sox 5
At 9-6 entering this game, the Yankees trailed the 10-5 Red Sox by one game in the standings. Joba Chamberlain worked around nine hits and four walks to hold the Red Sox to two runs, and the Yankees took a 4-2 lead against Hideki Okajima in the top of the seventh. Jonathan Albaladejo (seriously, check the box score) and Phil Coke held the Red Sox scoreless over the sventh and eighth, and the Yankees were three outs away from the win with Mo on the mound. Mo had pitched in seven games to this point in the season, and had allowed no runs.
Still, if you’d watched, you could see he wasn’t quite right. We would later find out that he was still building up his arm strength after offseason shoulder surgery. He struck out David Ortiz, which was impressive at the time, although not as much now in hindsight. Kevin Youkilis singled, then J.D. Drew grounded out to Cano. Needing just one more out Mo threw a cutter in a bad spot and Jason Bay hit a booming shot out just left of dead center over the Green Monster to tie the game at four. A Youkilis HR off Damaso Marte in the 11th gave the Red Sox the 5-4 win.
April 25, 2009: Yankees 11, Red Sox 16
Staked to a 6-0 lead, Burnett gives up five runs in the fourth and three in the fifth, wasting a Yankee offense that scored eight runs off Josh Beckett. The Yankees tried chipping away but their pen gave up another eight runs.
April 26: Red Sox 4, Yankees 1
The Red Sox complete the sweep, and every talking head dances with glee on the Yankees’ grave. Oh, how wrong they’d end up being…
April 27: Yankees 2, Tigers 4
Justin Verlander outduels Sabathia (let’s hope that we don’t see those words in the same sentence ever again, unless the order is reversed) at Comerica Park. Trailing 4-0 in the ninth, a Cano double is followed up by Swisher and Cabrera singles, which cut the lead to 4-1 and puts runners on first and third with no outs and brings up Jorge Posada as the tying run.
Unfortunately, Posada hits into a double play and Ramiro Pena flies out to end the thread. The Yankees drop below .500 at 9-10.
April 28: Yankees 11, Tigers 0
This game was actually scoreless after six innings. Before the Yankees wised up, they actually had Phil Hughes start a game. Can you imagine the foolishness? Anyway, it was Hughes’s first start of the season, and he pitched six scoreless innings allowing just two hits. The Yankees exploded for 10 runs in the seventh to turn it into a laugher.
May 1: Yankees 10, Angels 9
The Yankees take a quick 4-0 lead in the first against Jered Weaver, who then proceeds to shut them out for the next five innings. Andy “Battle Cat” Pettitte battles the Angels scoreless through the first five innings, until the Angels rally for six against him and Mark Melancon in the sixth.
Another three runs give the Halos a 9-4 lead. It stays that way until the bottom of the eighth when the Yankees score four to cut the lead to 9-8. With the tying run on second, Johnny Damon is called out on strikes, and it looks like long odds.
However, the Yankees first four base runners reach in the ninth via a walk and three singles. The third single (by Posada) plates Teixeira and Angel Berroa (yeah, he was on base, but as a pinch-runner, he did not reach of his own volition) and the Yankees have their second walkoff win of 2009.
May 7: Yankees 6, Rays 8
The Yankees were on a four game losing streak and trailed in the eighth by two. A Jeter single and Damon HR tie the game, but Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria hit back-to-back HRs off Rivera in the top of the ninth and the Yankees lose their fifth straight game. The homers were Rivera’s third and fourth allowed of the season over his first 49 batters faced.
For comparison’s sake, he allowed four HRs total in 2008 over 259 batters faced, and also four total in 2007 over 295 batters faced. The Yankees were now 13-15 on the season, and the lead story on Baseball Tonight every night.
May 8: Yankees 4, Orioles 0
After a lackluster start to his Yankee career with a 4.85 ERA and one win in six starts, Sabathia dominates the Orioles pitching a CG shutout, the first by a Yankee since Chien-Ming Wang did it on July 28, 2006. Also of note, Alex Rodriguez returned from the DL and homered in his first PA.
May 10: Yankees 5, Orioles 3
Down 3-2, Johnny Damon’s two-out three-run homer in the eighth off Jim Johnson gives the Yankees the lead, and eventually the win.
May 15: Yankees 5, Twins 4
Walkoff win # 3 came against one of the best closers in the game, Joe Nathan. Down 3-1, the Yankees’ odds of winning were probably around the same as a Mike Lupica article about the Yankees that doesn’t whine about payroll. Brett Gardner led off with a triple, Teixiera singled to drive him in and then Rodriguez walked. Nathan recovered to fan Hideki Matsui and getting Swisher to ground out.
With first base open, the Twins elected to walk Robinson Cano, apparently not aware that there were runners in scoring position. Melky took offense, singling in the tying and go ahead runs. Nathan had pitched the previous three days which was probably part of the reason it happened. He entered the game with a 1.29 ERA and left with a 3.07 ERA.
May 16: Yankees 6, Twins 4
Another walkoff, this one in extra innings as Alex “Garbage Time” Rodriguez took Craig Breslow deep with Mark Teixeira on base for the 6-4 win.
May 17: Yankees 3, Twins 2
For anyone that wants to say the Yankees “dominated” the Twins in the regular season, it took three straight walkoffs to win the first three games of this series. This was another extra inning affair, with Damon doing the honors.
May 23: Yankees 5, Phillies 4
Another walkoff. This time, down 4-2 against the 2008 World Series champs and last year’s perfect closer, Brad Lidge, the Yankees rallied to tie the game on a two-run Rodriguez homer, thne won it after a Cano single and steal and a Cabrera single. In hindsight rallying of Lidge doesn’t seem that impressive, but it was nice at the time.
June 1: Yankees 5, Indians 2
Chamberlain pitches the eighth. And seventh. And sixth. And fifth. And fourth. And third. And second. And first, in the longest outing of his career.
June 6: Yankees 7, Rays 9
You ask Mariano Rivera to intentionally walk someone?
June 8: Yankees 5, Rays 3
Phil Hughes makes his first relief appearance of 2009 and picks up his first hold. This would end up being a pretty significant event even if it came in the seventh instead of the eighth.
June 11: Yankees 3, Red Sox 4
Trying to take their first game against Boston after dropping the first seven, C.C. Sabathia dominates over the first seven innings and the Yankees take a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth. Joe Girardi sticks with Sabathia while the first three batters reach, then brings in Alfredo Aceves, who gives up back to back sngles then a sacrifice fly to give the Red Sox the lead and eventually the win.
June 12: Yankees 9, Mets 8
Reeling after being swept by Boston, the Yankees returned home to face the Mets. I suppose you can make a case about feeling sorry for Mets fans, but I’m pretty sure if the roles were reversed most of them would be cackling with glee.
Anyway, the Mets win this game 99.9% of the time in an alternate universe. In this universe, Luis Castillo drops a two-out ninth inning infield pop up with his team up by one and the tying and winning runs on base. Both score. Yankees win, Mets lose.
June 14: Yankees 15, Mets 0
The Yankees torch Johan Santana, and all the articles about how stupid the Yankees were for not trading Hughes and Melky for him magically stop appearing.
June 18: Yankees 0, Nationals 3
The Yankees lose the rubber game of a series. AT HOME. AGAINST THE NATIONALS. Craig Stammen throws 6.1 scoreless innings. It would be the only outing of his 19 on the season where he didn’t allow at least one run.
June 20: Yankees 1, Marlins 2
Burnett pitches well. Josh Johnson pitches better. A Damon error in LF ends up being the difference.
June 23: Yankees 0, Braves 4
The only game I went to in person this year. Considered by many to be the turning point of the season, as the Yankees would drop this one then win their next seven.
June 23: Yankees 8, Braves 4
Joe Girardi gets ejected, and the Yankees score eight runs over the last four innings to beat the Braves.
June 28: Yankees 4, Mets 2
Hard to believe, but Wang won a game this year. This was the one, completing a sweep of the Mets. Even more noteworthy in this game was Mo picking up his 500th career save, and his first career RBI on a bases-loaded walk. No would have lead the AL in OBP this year if he had qualified.
July 4: Yankees 6, Blue Jays 5
Posada singles in the winning run in the 12th for walkoff # 8.
July 10: Yankees 6, Angels 10
The Yankees stormed into Anaheim before the All Star Break having won 13 of their last 15 games, and jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead. Unfortunately, Chamberlain, Melancona nd Brian Bruney gave up the lead and then some, although they weren’t helped by errors by Jeter and Rodriguez.
July 12: Yankees 4, Angels 5
The Angels complete the sweep, and make us all mad.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
AL Reliever Stats Through Games of September 2
Minimum of 29.2 IP
| Player | TEAM | IP | H | R | ER | HR | HBP | BB | SO | ERA | FIP |
| P Hughes | NYY | 39.3 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 1.14 | 1.70 |
| J Frasor | TOR | 45.3 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 43 | 1.79 | 2.52 |
| M Wuertz | OAK | 64.3 | 47 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 84 | 3.08 | 2.69 |
| A Bailey | OAK | 72.0 | 44 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 76 | 1.88 | 2.73 |
| M Thornton | CWS | 59.7 | 48 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 72 | 2.72 | 2.78 |
| J Nathan | MIN | 53.3 | 35 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 70 | 2.36 | 2.81 |
| M Rivera | NYY | 55.7 | 41 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 61 | 1.78 | 2.89 |
| D Aardsma | SEA | 61.7 | 43 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 72 | 2.19 | 3.05 |
| K Jepsen | LAA | 40.0 | 49 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 4.95 | 3.13 |
| C Wilson | TEX | 62.0 | 53 | 28 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 69 | 3.19 | 3.15 |
| D Robertson | NYY | 39.0 | 34 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 58 | 3.46 | 3.17 |
| D Bard | BOS | 41.3 | 33 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 55 | 3.48 | 3.18 |
| S Downs | TOR | 39.0 | 36 | 15 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| D O'Day | TEX | 46.7 | 29 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 47 | 1.93 | 3.24 |
| R Tejeda | KC | 42.0 | 28 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 55 | 4.07 | 3.25 |
| J Soria | KC | 41.3 | 33 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 52 | 2.83 | 3.27 |
| G Sherrill | BAL | 41.3 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 2.40 | 3.35 |
| B Ziegler | OAK | 59.0 | 69 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 40 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| D Carrasco | CWS | 77.7 | 80 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 54 | 3.24 | 3.39 |
| F Francisco | TEX | 40.7 | 33 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 3.32 | 3.42 |
| J Papelbon | BOS | 57.7 | 48 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 66 | 1.87 | 3.44 |
| R Springer | OAK | 41.7 | 52 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 47 | 4.10 | 3.51 |
| G Balfour | TB | 59.3 | 55 | 32 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 60 | 4.55 | 3.52 |
| B Seay | DET | 43.7 | 34 | 16 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 35 | 3.30 | 3.52 |
| M Lowe | SEA | 65.0 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 22 | 53 | 3.05 | 3.58 |
| J Masterson | BOS | 36.7 | 34 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 4.42 | 3.64 |
| M Hendrickson | BAL | 51.7 | 53 | 21 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 3.66 | 3.70 |
| J Howell | TB | 63.0 | 42 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 74 | 2.43 | 3.72 |
| H Okajima | BOS | 53.7 | 49 | 19 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 49 | 3.19 | 3.76 |
| D Oliver | LAA | 55.0 | 45 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 46 | 2.95 | 3.80 |
| J Arredondo | LAA | 37.7 | 43 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 41 | 6.21 | 3.84 |
| R Betancourt | CLE | 30.7 | 25 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 32 | 3.52 | 3.85 |
| F Rodney | DET | 59.7 | 49 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 28 | 55 | 3.17 | 3.90 |
| M Albers | BAL | 54.3 | 66 | 36 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 38 | 5.63 | 3.94 |
| S White | SEA | 64.3 | 50 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 28 | 2.80 | 3.96 |
| E Gonzalez | OAK | 36.3 | 38 | 21 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 5.20 | 3.97 |
| M Guerrier | MIN | 64.3 | 48 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 2.38 | 3.98 |
| J Carlson | TOR | 56.3 | 57 | 32 | 30 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 47 | 4.79 | 3.98 |
| L Cormier | TB | 66.0 | 62 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 3.00 | 4.03 |
| O Dotel | CWS | 52.0 | 43 | 22 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 35 | 63 | 3.29 | 4.05 |
| M Delcarmen | BOS | 53.0 | 51 | 23 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 35 | 3.40 | 4.07 |
| B League | TOR | 62.0 | 63 | 38 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 64 | 5.37 | 4.07 |
| J Smith | CLE | 34.0 | 30 | 16 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 30 | 3.44 | 4.11 |
| B Lyon | DET | 63.0 | 47 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 47 | 3.00 | 4.14 |
| A Aceves | NYY | 64.0 | 54 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 51 | 3.66 | 4.14 |
| C Breslow | OAK | 41.3 | 29 | 19 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 3.27 | 4.19 |
| B Jenks | CWS | 46.7 | 46 | 21 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 44 | 3.66 | 4.23 |
| B Fuentes | LAA | 44.0 | 41 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 4.09 | 4.25 |
| T Saito | BOS | 47.7 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 45 | 2.64 | 4.25 |
| J Mijares | MIN | 51.3 | 39 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 45 | 2.28 | 4.25 |
| J Crain | MIN | 37.7 | 40 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 32 | 5.97 | 4.29 |
| J Bulger | LAA | 56.0 | 40 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 27 | 55 | 3.54 | 4.36 |
| S Camp | TOR | 65.3 | 62 | 32 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 27 | 46 | 3.72 | 4.36 |
| J Johnson | BAL | 60.7 | 59 | 26 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 43 | 3.86 | 4.37 |
| Z Miner | DET | 51.7 | 52 | 24 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 36 | 4.18 | 4.38 |
| K Wood | CLE | 47.0 | 43 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 55 | 4.40 | 4.39 |
| B Keppel | MIN | 39.0 | 44 | 23 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 25 | 5.31 | 4.46 |
| L Ayala | MIN | 32.3 | 38 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 4.18 | 4.53 |
| D Wheeler | TB | 48.7 | 36 | 20 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 36 | 3.51 | 4.56 |
| D Baez | BAL | 62.3 | 55 | 32 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 37 | 4.04 | 4.58 |
| R Ramirez | BOS | 58.3 | 50 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 44 | 2.93 | 4.62 |
| R Perry | DET | 50.0 | 46 | 26 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 30 | 48 | 3.96 | 4.64 |
| J Jennings | TEX | 61.0 | 67 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 44 | 4.13 | 4.72 |
| M Palmer | LAA | 35.7 | 28 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 18 | 2.78 | 4.80 |
| S Kelley | SEA | 35.3 | 36 | 16 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 4.08 | 4.81 |
| B Duensing | MIN | 30.3 | 33 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 5.34 | 4.85 |
| R Perez | CLE | 38.7 | 50 | 30 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 27 | 6.98 | 4.86 |
| J Speier | LAA | 40.0 | 44 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 5.18 | 4.95 |
| R Dickey | MIN | 59.3 | 70 | 31 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 38 | 4.55 | 4.97 |
| S Linebrink | CWS | 49.0 | 55 | 26 | 21 | 9 | 2 | 21 | 48 | 3.86 | 5.04 |
| C Ray | BAL | 38.7 | 54 | 30 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 35 | 6.75 | 5.06 |
| J Wright | KC | 64.3 | 62 | 42 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 46 | 4.48 | 5.11 |
| M Batista | SEA | 61.3 | 65 | 32 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 37 | 44 | 3.96 | 5.16 |
| P Coke | NYY | 53.7 | 42 | 33 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 5.03 | 5.16 |
| J Cruz | KC | 46.7 | 43 | 34 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 35 | 6.17 | 5.17 |
| B Bass | BAL | 77.3 | 97 | 46 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 39 | 48 | 4.89 | 5.31 |
| B Bruney | NYY | 29.7 | 29 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 28 | 4.55 | 5.32 |
| S Casilla | OAK | 45.0 | 53 | 32 | 29 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 30 | 5.80 | 5.33 |
| C Jakubauskas | SEA | 50.0 | 43 | 28 | 25 | 10 | 2 | 13 | 28 | 4.50 | 5.58 |
| J Zumaya | DET | 31.0 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 22 | 30 | 4.94 | 5.59 |
| J Lewis | CLE | 49.7 | 47 | 29 | 27 | 11 | 2 | 22 | 46 | 4.89 | 5.68 |
| J Nelson | TB | 40.3 | 32 | 22 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 27 | 36 | 4.02 | 5.75 |
| R Mahay | KC | 41.3 | 55 | 26 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 19 | 34 | 4.79 | 5.91 |
| R Colon | KC | 35.7 | 38 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 20 | 6.06 | 6.06 |
| E Guardado | TEX | 33.3 | 33 | 18 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 17 | 4.32 | 6.17 |
| Player | TEAM | IP | SO | K/9 |
| D Robertson | NYY | 39.0 | 58 | 13.38 |
| D Bard | BOS | 41.3 | 55 | 11.98 |
| J Nathan | MIN | 53.3 | 70 | 11.81 |
| R Tejeda | KC | 42.0 | 55 | 11.79 |
| M Wuertz | OAK | 64.3 | 84 | 11.75 |
| P Hughes | NYY | 39.3 | 51 | 11.67 |
| J Soria | KC | 41.3 | 52 | 11.32 |
| O Dotel | CWS | 52.0 | 63 | 10.90 |
| M Thornton | CWS | 59.7 | 72 | 10.86 |
| J Howell | TB | 63.0 | 74 | 10.57 |
| K Wood | CLE | 47.0 | 55 | 10.53 |
| D Aardsma | SEA | 61.7 | 72 | 10.51 |
| J Papelbon | BOS | 57.7 | 66 | 10.30 |
| F Francisco | TEX | 40.7 | 46 | 10.18 |
| R Springer | OAK | 41.7 | 47 | 10.15 |
| C Wilson | TEX | 62.0 | 69 | 10.02 |
| M Rivera | NYY | 55.7 | 61 | 9.86 |
| J Arredondo | LAA | 37.7 | 41 | 9.80 |
| J Masterson | BOS | 36.7 | 39 | 9.57 |
| A Bailey | OAK | 72.0 | 76 | 9.50 |
| R Betancourt | CLE | 30.7 | 32 | 9.39 |
| B League | TOR | 62.0 | 64 | 9.29 |
| G Balfour | TB | 59.3 | 60 | 9.10 |
| D O'Day | TEX | 46.7 | 47 | 9.06 |
| S Downs | TOR | 39.0 | 39 | 9.00 |
| J Bulger | LAA | 56.0 | 55 | 8.84 |
| S Linebrink | CWS | 49.0 | 48 | 8.82 |
| J Speier | LAA | 40.0 | 39 | 8.78 |
| J Zumaya | DET | 31.0 | 30 | 8.71 |
| R Perry | DET | 50.0 | 48 | 8.64 |
| J Frasor | TOR | 45.3 | 43 | 8.54 |
| T Saito | BOS | 47.7 | 45 | 8.50 |
| B Bruney | NYY | 29.7 | 28 | 8.49 |
| G Sherrill | BAL | 41.3 | 39 | 8.49 |
| B Jenks | CWS | 46.7 | 44 | 8.49 |
| B Fuentes | LAA | 44.0 | 41 | 8.39 |
| J Lewis | CLE | 49.7 | 46 | 8.34 |
| F Rodney | DET | 59.7 | 55 | 8.30 |
| H Okajima | BOS | 53.7 | 49 | 8.22 |
| S Kelley | SEA | 35.3 | 32 | 8.15 |
| C Ray | BAL | 38.7 | 35 | 8.15 |
| J Nelson | TB | 40.3 | 36 | 8.03 |
| J Smith | CLE | 34.0 | 30 | 7.94 |
| J Mijares | MIN | 51.3 | 45 | 7.89 |
| C Breslow | OAK | 41.3 | 36 | 7.84 |
| K Jepsen | LAA | 40.0 | 34 | 7.65 |
| J Crain | MIN | 37.7 | 32 | 7.65 |
| D Oliver | LAA | 55.0 | 46 | 7.53 |
| J Carlson | TOR | 56.3 | 47 | 7.51 |
| R Mahay | KC | 41.3 | 34 | 7.40 |
| M Lowe | SEA | 65.0 | 53 | 7.34 |
| B Seay | DET | 43.7 | 35 | 7.21 |
| A Aceves | NYY | 64.0 | 51 | 7.17 |
| P Coke | NYY | 53.7 | 41 | 6.88 |
| R Ramirez | BOS | 58.3 | 44 | 6.79 |
| J Cruz | KC | 46.7 | 35 | 6.75 |
| B Lyon | DET | 63.0 | 47 | 6.71 |
| D Wheeler | TB | 48.7 | 36 | 6.66 |
| J Jennings | TEX | 61.0 | 44 | 6.49 |
| M Batista | SEA | 61.3 | 44 | 6.46 |
| J Wright | KC | 64.3 | 46 | 6.44 |
| J Johnson | BAL | 60.7 | 43 | 6.38 |
| S Camp | TOR | 65.3 | 46 | 6.34 |
| M Albers | BAL | 54.3 | 38 | 6.29 |
| R Perez | CLE | 38.7 | 27 | 6.28 |
| Z Miner | DET | 51.7 | 36 | 6.27 |
| D Carrasco | CWS | 77.7 | 54 | 6.26 |
| B Ziegler | OAK | 59.0 | 40 | 6.10 |
| M Guerrier | MIN | 64.3 | 43 | 6.02 |
| S Casilla | OAK | 45.0 | 30 | 6.00 |
| M Delcarmen | BOS | 53.0 | 35 | 5.94 |
| B Duensing | MIN | 30.3 | 20 | 5.93 |
| M Hendrickson | BAL | 51.7 | 34 | 5.92 |
| L Ayala | MIN | 32.3 | 21 | 5.85 |
| B Keppel | MIN | 39.0 | 25 | 5.77 |
| R Dickey | MIN | 59.3 | 38 | 5.76 |
| B Bass | BAL | 77.3 | 48 | 5.59 |
| D Baez | BAL | 62.3 | 37 | 5.34 |
| E Gonzalez | OAK | 36.3 | 21 | 5.20 |
| R Colon | KC | 35.7 | 20 | 5.05 |
| C Jakubauskas | SEA | 50.0 | 28 | 5.04 |
| E Guardado | TEX | 33.3 | 17 | 4.59 |
| M Palmer | LAA | 35.7 | 18 | 4.54 |
| L Cormier | TB | 66.0 | 32 | 4.36 |
| S White | SEA | 64.3 | 28 | 3.92 |
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
August 2009 Yankee Splits
Unfortunately for us as Yankee fans, August ended with yesterday's 5-1 victory over Baltimore. Why is that unfortunate? Here are a few reasons.The Yankees went into August with a 62-41 record and a 1.5 game lead in the AL East, having scored 569 runs and allowing 491 to that point. Today they sit at 83-48, having scored 744 runs and allowing 614. More importantly, they've now got a 6.5 game lead in the AL East.
So in August, the Yankees went 21-7, scored 175 runs, and allowed 123 runs. Here's how the individual players performed offensively, defensively, and in pitching.
| Player | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR |
| Derek Jeter | 122 | 27 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 1 | .377 | .403 | .574 | 24 |
| Mark Teixeira | 109 | 17 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 17 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 0 | .294 | .391 | .523 | 22 |
| Robinson Cano | 118 | 19 | 41 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1 | .347 | .358 | .585 | 21 |
| Johnny Damon | 98 | 21 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 0 | .327 | .371 | .622 | 21 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 92 | 19 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0 | .315 | .442 | .500 | 20 |
| Nick Swisher | 94 | 14 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | .277 | .378 | .500 | 18 |
| Hideki Matsui | 89 | 16 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | .281 | .333 | .584 | 16 |
| Jorge Posada | 75 | 9 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 | .280 | .345 | .533 | 13 |
| Melky Cabrera | 103 | 14 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 0 | .223 | .264 | .350 | 10 |
| Jerry Hairston | 41 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .293 | .400 | .512 | 8 |
| Eric Hinske | 29 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | .172 | .265 | .276 | 2 |
| Jose Molina | 40 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .283 | .200 | 2 |
| Ramiro Pena | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .375 | .375 | .375 | 1 |
| Cody Ransom | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
| Player | G | GS | W | L | Sv | Sho | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | ERA | FIP | K9 | BB9 | HR9 | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | 6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44.3 | 36 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 2.64 | 2.86 | 10.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| Andy Pettitte | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39.7 | 29 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 2.50 | 2.80 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 13.4 |
| Mariano Rivera | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 11.3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0.79 | 3.29 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6.5 |
| Brian Bruney | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0.87 | 4.55 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 5.9 |
| Phil Hughes | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1.74 | 1.26 | 13.9 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.9 |
| Chad Gaudin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.0 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 3.21 | 6.34 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 4.3 |
| David Robertson | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 2.79 | 2.27 | 15.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 3.4 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.0 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 4.74 | 4.15 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Damaso Marte | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.91 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| Mark Melancon | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 5.20 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Sergio Mitre | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23.0 | 26 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 4.30 | 5.72 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| A.J. Burnett | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 37.3 | 38 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 17 | 40 | 1 | 6.03 | 4.24 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | -0.1 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18.00 | 7.20 | 9.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -1.3 |
| Phil Coke | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 11.17 | 7.03 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | -5.6 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23.0 | 31 | 21 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 0 | 8.22 | 5.29 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 1.2 | -5.7 |
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | INN | CH | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 23 | 22 | 201 | 55 | 46 | .835 | 43 | 3 | 2 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | RF | 24 | 23 | 196 | 56 | 51 | .911 | 49 | 2 | 2 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 23 | 22 | 202 | 36 | 33 | .919 | 31 | 2 | 2 |
| Hinske, Eric | NYY | AL | RF | 10 | 5 | 52 | 14 | 14 | 1.001 | 12 | 2 | 2 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYY | AL | 1B | 26 | 25 | 229 | 36 | 32 | .893 | 30 | 2 | 1 |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | NYY | AL | 3B | 9 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 19 | .826 | 18 | 1 | 1 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1.001 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | NYY | AL | SS | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ransom, Cody | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | 2B | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | NYY | AL | RF | 6 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hinske, Eric | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 7 | .875 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Molina, Jose | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ransom, Cody | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | NYY | AL | LF | 5 | 4 | 35 | 6 | 5 | .833 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 28 | 27 | 251 | 82 | 66 | .805 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | CF | 27 | 26 | 242 | 59 | 53 | .899 | 54 | -1 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | SS | 3 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 6 | .749 | 7 | -1 | 0 |
| Hairston Jr., Jerry | NYY | AL | CF | 2 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 3 | .750 | 4 | -1 | -1 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 27 | 27 | 235 | 76 | 62 | .817 | 63 | -1 | -1 |
| Total | 1799 | 472 | 406 | .861 | 397 | 9 | 8 |
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
CH: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone rating (PM / CH)
AvgPM: PM by an average defender at same position over the same # of chances
Diff: PM minus AvgPM
RS: Runs saved above average using zone rating.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
Yankees.com: Yanks sweep as bullpen backs Joba
Because the Yankees won’t reveal the “Joba Rules” in their entirety, fans are left to speculate. And on Sunday, they saw one of the strangest incarnations of the team’s plan to date.
The Yankee bullpen was strong in relief of a pulled-early Joba Chamberlain in what was actually a tight game until the seventh. Joba was pulled after three innings and 35 pitches because of how the Yankees are planning to manage his 2009 innings limit, but Alfredo Aceves, Damaso Marte, David Robertson, Phil Hughes and Phil Coke were able to limit the White Sox to five hits, no walks, and one run over the last six.
Also, Johnny Damon tied his career high with his 24th home run, with a month to go in the season. Derek Jeter went two for three with a walk and is now hitting .335/.398/.482 on the season.
Monday, August 24, 2009
2008 vs. 2009 Yankees Pitching
Following up on this post about where the 2009 Yankees have improved compared to 2008, here's a look at the pitching staffs.I'm just going to show the top five starters and top five relievers in terms of IP, then show everyone else collectively. Again, I'm pro-rating the 2009 stats to 162 games to allow direct comparison, even though we shouldn't assume the players will perform exactly as they have over the rest of the season.
| Role | 2008 | IP | RSAR | 2009 | IP | RSAR | WAR +/- |
| SP1 | Mike Mussina | 200 | 50 | C.C. Sabathia* | 242 | 65 | 1.5 |
| SP2 | Andy Pettitte* | 204 | 25 | A.J. Burnett | 207 | 45 | 1.9 |
| SP3 | Darrell Rasner | 113 | 2 | Andy Pettitte* | 199 | 32 | 3.0 |
| SP4 | Chien-Ming Wang | 95 | 20 | Joba Chamberlain | 165 | 29 | 0.9 |
| SP5 | Sidney Ponson | 80 | 1 | Chien-Ming Wang | 55 | -22 | -2.3 |
| Total | 693 | 99 | 869 | 148 | 4.9 | ||
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 71 | 31 | Mariano Rivera | 69 | 27 | -0.4 |
| RP | Jose Veras | 58 | 11 | Philip Hughes | 92 | 21 | 1.0 |
| RP | Edwar Ramirez | 55 | 8 | Alfredo Aceves | 83 | 10 | 0.2 |
| RP | Kyle Farnsworth | 44 | 8 | Phil Coke* | 65 | 2 | -0.6 |
| RP | Joba Chamberlain | 35 | 10 | David Robertson | 47 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Total | 263 | 68 | 357 | 66 | -0.2 | ||
| The Rest | 486 | 30 | The Rest | 229 | -20 | -5.0 | |
| Total | 1442 | 196 | 1455 | 194 | -0.2 |
RSAR: Park-adjusted runs saved above replacement level.
WAR +/-: Difference in wins above replacement (2009 RSAR - 2008 RSAR at each slot, divided by 10.)
When the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia, I saw more than a few comments, mostly from Yankee haters, about how all he was going to do was replace Mike Mussina and how it was a minimal upgrade. That sort of "analysis" was pretty lazy, as the numbers show. While Moose was great last year, Sabathia projected to be a win or a win and half better because he would pitch a lot more innings, even if the rate of performance was similar. So far Sabathia has been worth every penny of his contract.
Yeah, he's inconsistent, but A.J. Burnett has also been very valuable. He leads the Yankees in quality starts with 17, and the Yankees are 16-9 in his starts. He's on pace to be 4.5 WAR, which would be a win and a half better than he projected to be, since his projections assumed he'd miss a non-trivial amount of time. I have some concerns about the fact that Burnett's outpitched his FIP to this point, but his history shows that his FIP is high and should come down some. Burnett's on pace to be close to two wins better than last year's #2 starter, Andy Pettitte.
Speaking of Pettitte, he's on pace to be a bit better than last year in terms of RSAR, even though his FIP in 2009 is higher than 2008 (4.08 vs. 3.71). My first thought was that it must be the HRs in NYS, but he's essentially giving up HRs at the same rate as he did last year (2.16% of batters faced homered against him in 2008, compared to 2.44% in 2009). The difference is in his walk rate, as he's walking around 9% of the batters he's faced compared to 6% this year. Thankfully, last year's abnormally high BABIP of .339 has come down significantly this season to .314, so he's been far less hittable. In 2008, batters hit .290/.338/.422 against Pettitte, and this year it's .269/.334/.403. The fact that Pettitte is the third Yankee starter instead of Darrell Rasner in terms of innings pitched this season has been close to a 3 win upgrade.
We know Joba Chamberlain's scuffled, but he's still been an asset, and is on pace to end the season around 3 WAR. Ignoring leverage, that's just about as valuable as Mariano Rivera was in 2008 in a ridiculously sublime season. Joba should stay in the rotation going forward, and will hopefully start to show some of the ability to dominate that he's flashed at times a little more frequently.
Of course, now we have to deal with the 'Keep Hughes in the bullpen' clowns, but that's a fight for next season.
Fifth starter this year has been a hodge-podge, but right now Chien-Ming Wang is listed as the fifth starter. As we know, it was a terrible season for Wang both health-wise and performance-wise, but to see that it's 22 runs WORSE than Snacks Pontoon was in 2008 really kind of hammers it home, huh?
The Yankees' top four starters are on pace to collectively be 7.2 wins better than last years'. That's a massive upgrade. Of particular importance is the innings pitched. Last year's top five starters managed 693 innings, and this year's are on pace to pitch 869 innings. This obviously has benefits to the bullpen in terms of lessening their workload and perhaps in preventing some of the less appealing options pitching more frequently
Moving onto the pen, it's a testament to how ridiculously good Mariano Rivera was in 2008 that a season where he's got a 1.87 ERA would be a downgrade, but there you have it.
Phil Hughes has stepped in as the all important "Bridge to Mo" in 2009. His pro-rated innings are probably too high since he piled up some innings as a starter, but with 38 games left he should get another 15 innings or so and end the year in the 80-85 IP range. At that rate, he'd still be an upgrade over Jose Veras (remember him?) in 2008.
Alfredo Aceves looks like he has either hit the wall, is hiding an injury, or is having a correction after pitching over his head most of the year. I think he's still a useful arm in middle reliever, but he's probably closer to a 4.00 ERA guy than a 2.00 ERA guy. At his current rate he'd be a touch more valuable than Edwar Ramirez was in 2008.
Phil Coke's poor ERA masks the fact that he's actually been pretty useful as a tactical weapon. With Damaso Marte back now, Coke can hopefully be restricted to more of LOOGY role, where he should continue to be useful. Still, in terms of RSAR he's been a touch worse than the Farns was last year.
David Robertson's been pretty good in 2009, aside from his walk rate. Until he gets that under control he's probably not going to see a ton of work in high-leverage situations, but he's definitely a nice arm to have in the pen. At his current pace he'll be a little worse than Joba was in his 35 relief innings last season.
Collectively the top five relievers from 2009 have been roughly the same as the 2008 group, a couple of runs worse.
The rest of the staff in 2009 has been a lot worse than 2008, although 11 runs of the 20 run difference is Anthony Claggett's 3 innings of 14 hit, 13 run ball. The other chief culprits are Damaso Marte (-7) and Sergio Mitre (-8). Both pitchers will either start to pitch better or stop getting used, so I'm not worried about them.
Adding it all up, this year's staff to this point would end the year a touch worse than last year's, but the front-line talent (top four starters and top five relievers) look a lot better. Also, since we know some of the culprits responsible for the negtive performances are no longer part of the equation (Veras, Albaladejo, Claggett) we should probably be pretty comfortable the staff willl be as good or better going forward.
Friday, August 21, 2009
The Importance of The Upcoming Boston Series, Part Deux
About two weeks ago, I looked at the Yankees/Red Sox series using revised projections and pitching matchups to predict that the Yankees would win 2.3 of the 4 scheduled games. Of course the Yankees ended up sweeping Boston to open up a commanding lead in the AL East.At this point, up by six games in the loss column with 41 games to play, the division is the Yankees' to lose. If The Yankees go 21-20, they end the season at 97-75, and Boston would have to go 28-14 to tie them. However, if the Red Sox are able to sweep this series, their task becomes a lot easier.
Realistically, as long as the Yankees win one of the three games, they should be in good shape over the rest of the season, but let's see how the games break down. I'm going to use the best starting lineups for both teams, as well as the top relievers, even though we know bench players and lesser relievers will likely see some time as well.
| Lineup | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Outs |
| derek jeter | 5 | .316 | .381 | .446 | .732 | 3 |
| johnny damon | 5 | .283 | .358 | .470 | .743 | 3 |
| mark teixeira | 5 | .287 | .384 | .541 | .862 | 3 |
| alex rodriguez | 5 | .281 | .395 | .531 | .871 | 3 |
| hideki matsui | 5 | .275 | .361 | .476 | .732 | 3 |
| jorge posada | 5 | .282 | .367 | .477 | .751 | 3 |
| robinson cano | 5 | .304 | .338 | .481 | .632 | 3 |
| nick swisher | 4 | .242 | .360 | .457 | .569 | 3 |
| melky cabrera | 4 | .268 | .326 | .399 | .464 | 3 |
| total | 43 | .282 | .363 | .475 | 6.4 | 27 |
| Lineup | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Outs |
| jacoby ellsbury | 5 | .299 | .349 | .416 | .679 | 3 |
| dustin pedroia | 5 | .304 | .369 | .453 | .730 | 3 |
| victor martinez | 5 | .298 | .374 | .462 | .737 | 3 |
| kevin youkilis | 5 | .297 | .401 | .519 | .852 | 3 |
| jason bay | 5 | .270 | .379 | .516 | .762 | 3 |
| david ortiz | 5 | .261 | .367 | .518 | .801 | 3 |
| mike lowell | 5 | .285 | .339 | .473 | .686 | 3 |
| j.d. drew | 4 | .264 | .378 | .462 | .592 | 2 |
| alex gonzalez | 4 | .268 | .316 | .409 | .461 | 3 |
| total | 43 | .283 | .364 | .470 | 6.3 | 27 |
The lineups are essentially the same, with the Yankee lineup projected to score around 6.4 runs per 27 outs and the Red Sox lineup projected to score around 6.3. Now onto the pitching matchups.
Friday, August 21: Pettitte vs. Penny
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| andy pettitte | 6.00 | 3.23 |
| mariano rivera | 1.00 | 0.27 |
| phil hughes | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| phil coke | 1.00 | 0.68 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.69 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| brad penny | 5.50 | 3.28 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| hideki okajima | 1.00 | 0.35 |
| manny delcarmen | 1.00 | 0.46 |
| ramon ramirez | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.77 |
I won't run through all the math, you can go to the linked post in the beginning if you want to see how it works, but thanks to the home field advantage, Boston rates as a slight favorite in this game, as the Yankees' probability to win this game is 46.9%.
Saturday, August 22: Burnett vs. Tazawa
I didn't have Tazawa projected this year, so I'm using his MLE and his MLB performance as his projection.
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| a.j. burnett | 6.40 | 3.12 |
| mariano rivera | 1.00 | 0.27 |
| phil hughes | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| david robertson | 0.60 | 0.24 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.15 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| junichi tazawa | 5.00 | 2.70 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| hideki okajima | 1.00 | 0.35 |
| manny delcarmen | 1.00 | 0.46 |
| ramon ramirez | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.56 |
The Yankees rate as slight favorites in this win, as their win probability is 50.3%.
Sunday, August 23: Sabathia vs. The Guardian of Playing the Game the Right Way
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| cc sabathia | 6.90 | 2.96 |
| mariano rivera | 1.00 | 0.27 |
| phil hughes | 1.00 | 0.52 |
| david robertson | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| total | 9.00 | 3.79 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| josh beckett | 6.80 | 3.26 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| hideki okajima | 1.00 | 0.35 |
| manny delcarmen | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| total | 9.00 | 4.02 |
Another close one, with the Yankees as very slight underdogs with a win probability of 48.2%.
Regardless of the win probabilities, I think the Yankees should be able to take one of the first two games, and they have a decent chance of taking both. The Sunday game is a tossup, as both pitchers are capable of shutting down the other team.
Now, bear in mind that I have it on good authority that you CAN'T PREDICT BASEBALL. So I have no idea what will actually happen.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Yankees.com: Yankees lean on Teixeira, ‘pen in win
OAKLAND—Mark Teixeira homered and drove in all three runs for the Yankees on Wednesday, leading the way to a 3-2 victory over the Athletics that wrapped up the West Coast portion of the club’s 10-game road trip.
Teixeira’s 31st home run came off Oakland starter Brett Anderson with Johnny Damon aboard in the fourth inning, providing padding at the time and proving necessary as the Yankees had to lean on their bullpen to close out their 14th victory in 17 games.
Making his first start for the Yankees since being acquired from the Padres, right-hander Chad Gaudin pitched into the fifth inning and received some timely assistance to make it a successful spot start, walking five and striking out five against one of his former clubs.
Anytime you can go 5-2 on the west coast, you have to be happy about it. Teixeira may not be the MVP of the AL, but he’s damn good.
Nice work by Phil Coke, Phil Hughes and of course Mo to pick up Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves too. Although some may disagree, I thought bringing in Coke to face Sweeney was the right move at the time (over his career, he’s hit .234/.311 /.293 vs. lefties in his career, compared to .286/.337/.394 vs. righties). Coke’s held lefties to a line of .203/.231/.346 so far in his career.
Hughes scuffled a bit to start the eighth inning, which was probably at least partially due to rust, but Alex Rodriguez made a nice DP after the first two runners reached to essentially snuff out an Oakland threat.
Then Mo closed it out on seven pitches.
Off day tomorrow, then onto Boston for three and a chance to really bury the Red Sox in the division race.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Yankee Pitcher Run Values Through Games of August 12, 2009
| Lg Rank | Name | Team | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | RSAR |
| 12 | Sabathia, CC | NYA | SP | 162.7 | 145 | 14 | 45 | 123 | 3.98 | 3.67 | 41.2 |
| 14 | Burnett, A.J. | NYA | SP | 145.7 | 130 | 16 | 73 | 130 | 3.95 | 4.51 | 37.4 |
| 26 | Pettitte, Andy | NYA | SP | 141.3 | 146 | 16 | 53 | 103 | 4.58 | 4.36 | 26.3 |
| 32 | Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | SP | 121.7 | 116 | 16 | 59 | 107 | 4.59 | 4.83 | 22.7 |
| 42 | Rivera, Mariano | NYA | RP | 49 | 39 | 6 | 7 | 55 | 2.20 | 2.90 | 18.1 |
| 57 | Hughes, Phil | NYA | RP | 67 | 57 | 7 | 22 | 73 | 3.63 | 3.52 | 14.2 |
| 63 | Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | RP | 57.3 | 45 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 3.45 | 4.11 | 13.3 |
| 112 | Robertson, David A | NYA | RP | 33.3 | 25 | 3 | 19 | 47 | 4.05 | 3.15 | 5.5 |
| 154 | Melancon, Mark D | NYA | RP | 11.3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3.97 | 4.06 | 2.0 |
| 167 | Gaudin, Chad | NYA | RP | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.68 | 1.2 |
| 174 | Tomko, Brett | NYA | RP | 20.7 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 5.23 | 6.28 | 0.7 |
| 180 | Bruney, Brian A | NYA | RP | 23.7 | 23 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 5.32 | 4.15 | 0.6 |
| 184 | Coke, Phil | NYA | RP | 48 | 38 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 5.44 | 4.74 | 0.6 |
| 198 | Ramirez, Edwar E | NYA | RP | 17.3 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 5.71 | 8.43 | -0.3 |
| 215 | Veras, Jose | NYA | RP | 25.7 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 5.96 | 6.42 | -1.2 |
| 235 | Albaladejo, Jonathan | NYA | RP | 25.7 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 6.31 | 5.91 | -2.2 |
| 268 | Mitre, Sergio | NYA | SP | 23 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 8.22 | 5.05 | -5.0 |
| 278 | Marte, Damaso | NYA | RP | 5.3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15.19 | 9.93 | -5.7 |
| 298 | Claggett, Anthony | NYA | RP | 2.7 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 33.75 | 15.18 | -8.3 |
| 305 | Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | SP | 42 | 66 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 9.86 | 5.40 | -16.7 |
| 7 | Total | 1025 | 985 | 135 | 407 | 873 | 4.72 | 4.47 | 144.3 |
Lg Rank: American League rank in RSAR
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level, calculated as N times park factor multiplier times league RA - pitcher RA divided by nine times IP, where N = 1.3 for SP and 1.2 for RP
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Yankees.com: Yankees sweep aside their rivals
NEW YORK—Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira came to the rescue with back-to-back home runs off Daniel Bard in the bottom of the eighth inning as the Yankees rallied to defeat the Red Sox, 5-2, on Sunday at Yankee Stadium.
After Victor Martinez had snapped a 31-inning scoreless streak with a two-run homer off Phil Coke in the top half, Damon’s shot tied the game. Teixeira then crushed a pitch high over the right-field wall, carrying his bat down the first-base line and tossing it in celebration.
Instant Playoff Odds Update
Yankees: 90.1% Div, 8.4% WC, 98.5% PL
Red Sox: 7.8% Div, 57.2% WC, 65.0% PL
I love this team.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Guarantee Revealed
Back on April 27, I made the following proclamation.My bold prediction: The Yankees will beat the Red Sox at least once this season. Book it.
The Yanks had dropped their third straight game against Boston in 2009 at that point. Of course, they've since lost another five games, and are winless in eight games. If we assume the two teams are essentially equal talent-wise, the odds of that happening are around one in 250.
Anyway, since we're all getting antsy about the Yankees ever beating Boston, I figured I should take my guarantee one step further and reveal the game the Yankees will win. I've decided it will be part of the upcoming four game series at home.
I could have just done this using POOMA, but I think it's better if I go about it empirically. So the first thing I did was re-project the starting lineups for both teams going forward, then figured out how many runs per game we would expect each lineup to score in an average game based on these new projections.
| Lineup | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Outs |
| jacoby ellsbury | 5 | .294 | .343 | .414 | 0.7 | 3 |
| dustin pedroia | 5 | .306 | .366 | .448 | 0.7 | 3 |
| victor martinez | 5 | .285 | .364 | .450 | 0.7 | 3 |
| kevin youkilis | 5 | .291 | .394 | .515 | 0.8 | 3 |
| david ortiz | 5 | .265 | .367 | .508 | 0.8 | 3 |
| jason bay | 5 | .265 | .366 | .490 | 0.8 | 3 |
| j.d. drew | 5 | .264 | .375 | .458 | 0.7 | 3 |
| jason varitek | 4 | .234 | .336 | .421 | 0.5 | 2 |
| nick green | 4 | .246 | .285 | .391 | 0.3 | 3 |
| total | 42 | .272 | .355 | .455 | 6.0 | 27 |
I'm giving the Red Sox their best possible offensive lineup here, which means sitting Mike Lowell for Victor Martinez and Jed Lowrie for Nick Green. That lineup projects to score around 6.0 runs per game.
| Lineup | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Outs |
| derek jeter | 5 | .308 | .378 | .430 | 0.7 | 3 |
| johnny damon | 5 | .280 | .357 | .460 | 0.7 | 3 |
| mark teixeira | 5 | .285 | .383 | .532 | 0.8 | 3 |
| alex rodriguez | 5 | .273 | .393 | .540 | 0.9 | 3 |
| hideki matsui | 5 | .268 | .359 | .468 | 0.7 | 3 |
| jorge posada | 5 | .280 | .369 | .485 | 0.8 | 3 |
| robinson cano | 5 | .303 | .340 | .473 | 0.7 | 3 |
| nick swisher | 4 | .240 | .361 | .452 | 0.6 | 3 |
| melky cabrera | 4 | .276 | .334 | .407 | 0.4 | 2 |
| total | 43 | .279 | .364 | .472 | 6.3 | 27 |
This version of the Yankee lineup looks to be a touch better than the Red Sox's over 27 outs, at 6.3 runs per game. And yes, I'm aware that the starters won't play all four games for both teams, but this is all hypothetical anyway.
The Yankee defense has actually been better than Boston's this year, according to both ZR and UZR. However, I've incorporated the defense into the pitching projections that follow so I won't treat it separately here.
The next thing to do is estimate runs allowed per game by the pitching staff. The assumption here is that each starter will pitch around their average innings pitched per start in 2009 while allowing their re-projected runs allowed pro-rated to those innings. Remaining innings to get to nine will be filled by the top relievers on the team, using one inning for closer, one inning for setup man, then remaining innings to be adjusted accordingly. Obviously, the top relievers won't pitch in every game, but they should pitch in any game with a lead. Since I'm trying to figure out the probabilities of winning each game, I'll stick with the top relievers exclusively.
Thursday, August 5: Smoltz vs. Chamberlain
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| john smoltz | 5.2 | 2.66 |
| manny delcarmen | 0.8 | 0.34 |
| takashi saito | 1 | 0.34 |
| hideki okajima | 1 | 0.40 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1 | 0.32 |
| total | 9 | 4.06 |
And yes, I'm aware that pitchers can't pitch 5.2 innings or 0.8 innings, but innings have to add up to exactly 9 so that's how I made it work.
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| joba chamberlain | 5.5 | 2.35 |
| mariano rivera | 1 | 0.30 |
| phil hughes | 1 | 0.42 |
| alfredo aceves | 1 | 0.43 |
| phil coke | 0.5 | 0.23 |
| total | 9 | 3.73 |
Since we now have an estimate for runs scored per game and runs allowed per game for both teams, we can use Pythagenpat to calculate an estimated winning percentage, then use log5 to estimate the probability of each team winning that game.
For the Red Sox, that means their Pythagenpat exponent for this game is (6.0 + 4.06)^.287 = 1.94, and their estimated winning percentage is 6.00 ^ 1.94 divided by (6.00 ^ 1.94 + 4.06 ^ 1.94) = .681. For the Yankees, their Pythagenpat exponent for this game is (6.3 + 3.73)^.287 = 1.94, and their estimated winning percentage is 6.3 ^ 1.94 divided by (6.4 ^1.94 + 3.73 ^ 1.94) = .734. Before factoring in homefield advantage (+ 0.02 to home team winning percentage, - 0.02 to road team), that means the Yankees should have a 55.3% probability of winning this game. Add in homefield and the probability would go to 59.3%.
Friday, August 6: Beckett vs. Burnett
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| josh beckett | 6.8 | 3.10 |
| hideki okajima | 1 | 0.40 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1.2 | 0.39 |
| total | 9 | 3.88 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| a.j. burnett | 6.3 | 2.95 |
| mariano rivera | 1 | 0.30 |
| phil hughes | 1 | 0.42 |
| phil coke | 0.7 | 0.33 |
| total | 9 | 4.00 |
As fascinating as the detailed breakdown of the math involved surely is, I'll just put the estimated winning percentages here.
Yankees: .510, .550 HFA
Saturday, August 7: Buchholz vs. Sabathia
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| clay buchholz | 5.1 | 2.70 |
| hideki okajima | 1 | 0.40 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1 | 0.32 |
| manny delcarmen | 1 | 0.42 |
| takashi saito | 0.9 | 0.31 |
| total | 9 | 4.15 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| c.c. sabathia | 6.7 | 2.72 |
| mariano rivera | 1 | 0.30 |
| phil hughes | 1 | 0.42 |
| phil coke | 0.3 | 0.14 |
| total | 9 | 3.58 |
Yankees: .577, .617 HFA
Sunday, August 9: Lester vs. Pettitte
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| jon lester | 6.3 | 3.10 |
| hideki okajima | 1 | 0.40 |
| jonathan papelbon | 1 | 0.32 |
| manny delcarmen | 0.7 | 0.29 |
| total | 9 | 4.12 |
| Pitchers | IP | R |
| andy pettitte | 6 | 3.22 |
| mariano rivera | 1 | 0.30 |
| phil hughes | 1 | 0.42 |
| phil coke | 1 | 0.47 |
| total | 9 | 4.41 |
Yankees: .494, .534 HFA
So overall, here's what the numbers say.
| Game | % | %HFA |
| Sat, Aug 8 - Sabathia vs. Buchholz | .577 | .617 |
| Thu, Aug 6 - Smoltz vs. Chamberlain | .553 | .593 |
| Fri, Aug 7 - Beckett vs. Burnett | .510 | .550 |
| Sun, Aug 9 - Lester vs. Pettitte | .494 | .534 |
| Total | 2.134 | 2.294 |
Good news, as the Yankees should win 2.3 games against Boston over the weekend.
Looking at these numbers, I'm therefore going to guarantee that the Yankees win the game on Saturday August 8, with the caveat that you can't predict baseball.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
AL Relief Pitcher Run Values Through the All Star Break
| Rank | Name | Team | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | RSAR |
| 1 | *Bailey, Andrew S | OAK | RP | 51.7 | 31 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 1.92 | 2.58 | 20.1 |
| 2 | Dickey, R.A. | MIN | RP | 55.3 | 57 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 3.25 | 4.32 | 18.9 |
| 3 | *Nathan, Joe | MIN | RP | 34.3 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 1.31 | 1.94 | 18.6 |
| 4 | *Papelbon, Jonathan R | BOS | RP | 39 | 34 | 4 | 18 | 41 | 1.85 | 3.85 | 17.5 |
| 5 | Guerrier, Matt O | MIN | RP | 41 | 29 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 2.63 | 4.23 | 16.7 |
| 6 | Howell, J.P. | TB | RP | 42.7 | 32 | 2 | 16 | 50 | 2.32 | 2.69 | 16.1 |
| 7 | Cormier, Lance R | TB | RP | 48 | 42 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 2.81 | 3.31 | 15.4 |
| 8 | Ramirez, Ramon | BOS | RP | 38.7 | 27 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 2.33 | 4.12 | 15.4 |
| 9 | Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | RP | 43.3 | 34 | 6 | 8 | 36 | 2.91 | 3.99 | 14.9 |
| 10 | Aardsma, David | SEA | RP | 41.3 | 27 | 1 | 24 | 51 | 2.40 | 2.60 | 13.8 |
| 11 | *Rivera, Mariano | NYA | RP | 37 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 43 | 2.68 | 2.75 | 13.7 |
| 12 | Sherrill, George F | BAL | RP | 37.3 | 29 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 2.41 | 3.43 | 13.5 |
| 13 | Jennings, Jason | TEX | RP | 47 | 43 | 3 | 20 | 33 | 3.64 | 3.86 | 13.3 |
| 14 | Mijares, Jose | MIN | RP | 28.7 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 2.20 | 4.24 | 13.0 |
| 15 | O'Day, Darren | TEX | RP | 28 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 1.93 | 3.62 | 13.0 |
| 16 | Oliver, Darren | LAA | RP | 39 | 38 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 3.00 | 3.57 | 12.6 |
| 17 | Thornton, Matt J | CHA | RP | 36.3 | 28 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 2.48 | 2.77 | 12.6 |
| 18 | Johnson, Jim | BAL | RP | 42 | 39 | 3 | 14 | 27 | 3.00 | 3.73 | 12.5 |
| 19 | Francisco, Frank | TEX | RP | 27.7 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 2.28 | 3.70 | 11.8 |
| 20 | Hughes, Phil | NYA | RP | 53 | 44 | 7 | 20 | 50 | 4.08 | 4.35 | 11.6 |
| 21 | Frasor, Jason | TOR | RP | 33 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 2.45 | 2.61 | 11.2 |
| 22 | Okajima, Hideki | BOS | RP | 38 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 38 | 3.32 | 3.90 | 11.0 |
| 23 | Lyon, Brandon | DET | RP | 43 | 35 | 5 | 18 | 24 | 3.77 | 4.53 | 10.7 |
| 24 | White, Sean A | SEA | RP | 41 | 31 | 2 | 19 | 19 | 3.07 | 4.33 | 10.4 |
| 25 | Wuertz, Mike | OAK | RP | 42.7 | 31 | 3 | 12 | 53 | 3.16 | 2.43 | 10.4 |
| 26 | Downs, Scott | TOR | RP | 28.3 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 2.22 | 2.14 | 10.4 |
| 27 | Soria, Joakim A | KC | RP | 24 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 2.25 | 2.20 | 10.2 |
| 28 | Delcarmen, Manny | BOS | RP | 33.7 | 33 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 3.21 | 3.34 | 10.2 |
| 29 | Seay, Bobby | DET | RP | 28 | 20 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 2.89 | 2.66 | 9.6 |
| 30 | *Fuentes, Brian | LAA | RP | 30.7 | 27 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 3.23 | 2.96 | 9.1 |
| 31 | Rodney, Fernando | DET | RP | 39 | 33 | 4 | 19 | 34 | 3.92 | 4.13 | 9.1 |
| 32 | Ziegler, Brad G | OAK | RP | 41.3 | 43 | 1 | 15 | 29 | 3.48 | 2.94 | 8.5 |
| 33 | Linebrink, Scott | CHA | RP | 32.7 | 30 | 4 | 12 | 32 | 3.31 | 3.80 | 8.3 |
| 34 | Saito, Takashi | BOS | RP | 30.7 | 30 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 3.52 | 4.50 | 8.2 |
| 35 | Cruz, Juan | KC | RP | 39.7 | 28 | 4 | 21 | 30 | 4.31 | 4.55 | 8.1 |
| 36 | Carrasco, D.J. | CHA | RP | 54.7 | 60 | 3 | 20 | 36 | 4.28 | 3.60 | 7.8 |
| 37 | Wilson, C.J. | TEX | RP | 38.7 | 36 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 4.42 | 3.91 | 7.7 |
| 38 | Keppel, Bobby G | MIN | RP | 12.3 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.73 | 3.89 | 7.4 |
| 39 | Baez, Danys | BAL | RP | 44.3 | 36 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 4.26 | 4.51 | 6.9 |
| 40 | Albers, Matt J | BAL | RP | 37.7 | 40 | 1 | 17 | 28 | 4.06 | 3.37 | 6.7 |
| 41 | Wheeler, Dan | TB | RP | 32.7 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 6.7 |
| 42 | Bulger, Jason P | LAA | RP | 39 | 29 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 4.38 | 4.77 | 6.7 |
| 43 | Dotel, Octavio | CHA | RP | 34.7 | 29 | 4 | 23 | 46 | 3.89 | 3.91 | 6.5 |
| 44 | Camp, Shawn A | TOR | RP | 41.7 | 39 | 3 | 17 | 30 | 4.10 | 3.81 | 6.4 |
| 45 | Mathis, Doug | TEX | RP | 16.7 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2.70 | 4.72 | 6.4 |
| 46 | Grilli, Jason | TEX | RP | 12.3 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 1.46 | 4.21 | 6.3 |
| 47 | French, Luke | DET | RP | 14 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1.93 | 5.16 | 6.3 |
| 48 | Hayhurst, Dirk V | TOR | RP | 14.7 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 1.84 | 4.45 | 6.0 |
| 49 | Masterson, Justin | BOS | RP | 65 | 70 | 7 | 23 | 59 | 5.12 | 3.99 | 6.0 |
| 50 | Coke, Phil | NYA | RP | 38.3 | 26 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 4.70 | 4.52 | 5.8 |
| 51 | Guardado, Eddie | TEX | RP | 25.7 | 27 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 4.21 | 5.19 | 5.7 |
| 52 | Choate, Randy | TB | RP | 14.7 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 2.45 | 3.70 | 5.3 |
| 53 | Bard, Daniel P | BOS | RP | 24.7 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 4.01 | 1.90 | 5.3 |
| 54 | Jenks, Bobby | CHA | RP | 31 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 4.06 | 3.90 | 5.2 |
| 55 | Herges, Matt | CLE | RP | 25.3 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 3.55 | 3.99 | 5.2 |
| 56 | Batista, Miguel | SEA | RP | 46 | 45 | 3 | 24 | 30 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 5.2 |
| 57 | Ayala, Luis | MIN | RP | 32.3 | 38 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 5.01 | 4.49 | 5.1 |
| 58 | Zumaya, Joel M | DET | RP | 30 | 29 | 4 | 21 | 30 | 4.50 | 4.79 | 5.1 |
| 59 | Laffey, Aaron S | CLE | RP | 40.3 | 39 | 1 | 21 | 20 | 4.24 | 4.13 | 5.1 |
| 60 | Poreda, Aaron | CHA | RP | 11 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 1.64 | 2.61 | 4.9 |
| 61 | Speier, Justin | LAA | RP | 33 | 29 | 4 | 14 | 33 | 4.64 | 4.19 | 4.8 |
| 62 | Olson, Garrett | SEA | RP | 57 | 50 | 12 | 18 | 33 | 4.58 | 5.84 | 4.6 |
| 63 | Robertson, David A | NYA | RP | 22.7 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 4.37 | 3.29 | 4.3 |
| 64 | Mahay, Ron | KC | RP | 29.3 | 34 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 4.91 | 4.80 | 4.1 |
| 65 | Farnsworth, Kyle | KC | RP | 23.3 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 4.63 | 2.90 | 4.0 |
| 66 | Cameron, Kevin J | OAK | RP | 18.3 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 3.44 | 3.21 | 3.9 |
| 67 | Breslow, Craig | OAK | RP | 20 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 3.60 | 3.41 | 3.9 |
| 68 | Sipp, Tony M | CLE | RP | 13 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 2.77 | 6.62 | 3.8 |
| 69 | Bass, Brian M | BAL | RP | 53.7 | 63 | 9 | 21 | 38 | 5.03 | 5.10 | 3.8 |
| 70 | Balfour, Grant | TB | RP | 41.7 | 36 | 2 | 21 | 42 | 4.97 | 3.35 | 3.4 |
| 71 | Perry, Ryan | DET | RP | 27.3 | 24 | 3 | 21 | 25 | 4.94 | 4.95 | 3.3 |
| 72 | Ni, Fu-Te | DET | RP | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2.25 | 3.16 | 3.3 |
| 73 | Dolsi, Freddy | DET | RP | 9.3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2.89 | 3.05 | 3.2 |
| 74 | Betancourt, Rafael | CLE | RP | 28.7 | 24 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 4.40 | 3.40 | 3.1 |
| 75 | Isringhausen, Jason | TB | RP | 8 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 2.25 | 4.28 | 3.1 |
| 76 | Shouse, Brian | TB | RP | 14.3 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3.77 | 4.14 | 3.1 |
| 77 | Murphy, Bill R | TOR | RP | 11.3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 3.18 | 5.37 | 2.9 |
| 78 | Accardo, Jeremy | TOR | RP | 10.3 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 3.48 | 6.55 | 2.3 |
| 79 | Bruney, Brian A | NYA | RP | 16.7 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 4.86 | 3.22 | 2.3 |
| 80 | Colon, Roman | KC | RP | 16.3 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 4.96 | 4.51 | 2.2 |
| 81 | Tomko, Brett | NYA | RP | 20.7 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 5.23 | 6.26 | 2.0 |
| 82 | Tejeda, Robinson G | KC | RP | 21.7 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 30 | 5.40 | 3.57 | 1.9 |
| 83 | League, Brandon P | TOR | RP | 42.7 | 41 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 5.06 | 3.98 | 1.9 |
| 84 | Bullington, Bryan P | TOR | RP | 6 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 3.00 | 3.99 | 1.7 |
| 85 | Aquino, Greg | CLE | RP | 16 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 4.50 | 4.85 | 1.5 |
| 86 | Nelson, Joe | TB | RP | 34 | 30 | 7 | 20 | 32 | 5.29 | 5.72 | 1.5 |
| 87 | Lowe, Mark | SEA | RP | 41.7 | 38 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 4.97 | 3.78 | 1.5 |
| 88 | Duensing, Brian | MIN | RP | 11.7 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5.40 | 6.24 | 1.4 |
| 89 | Abreu, Winston | TB | RP | 3.7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2.45 | 3.16 | 1.3 |
| 90 | Bowden, Michael | BOS | RP | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.16 | 1.3 |
| 91 | Miner, Zach C | DET | RP | 49.3 | 58 | 5 | 25 | 38 | 5.84 | 4.46 | 1.3 |
| 92 | Mickolio, Kam | BAL | RP | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 2.16 | 1.3 |
| 93 | Chulk, Vinnie | CLE | RP | 12 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 4.50 | 6.08 | 1.2 |
| 94 | Bradford, Chad | TB | RP | 3.3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 1.1 |
| 95 | Arredondo, Jose J | LAA | RP | 24.3 | 28 | 0 | 12 | 27 | 5.55 | 2.17 | 1.1 |
| 96 | Thompson, Rich | LAA | RP | 16.7 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 5.40 | 6.94 | 1.0 |
| 97 | Gray, Jeff | OAK | RP | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.96 | 1.0 |
| 98 | Carlson, Jesse C | TOR | RP | 41.3 | 43 | 3 | 14 | 30 | 5.23 | 3.67 | 1.0 |
| 99 | Albaladejo, Jonathan | NYA | RP | 25 | 27 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 5.76 | 5.80 | 1.0 |
| 100 | Rincon, Juan | DET | RP | 10.3 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 5.23 | 5.48 | 0.9 |
| 101 | Bale, John | KC | RP | 14.3 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 5.65 | 4.62 | 0.9 |
| 102 | Moscoso, Guillermo A | TEX | RP | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4.50 | 2.41 | 0.8 |
| 103 | Waechter, Doug | KC | RP | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4.50 | 8.91 | 0.7 |
| 104 | Ramirez, Edwar E | NYA | RP | 17.3 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 5.71 | 8.41 | 0.7 |
| 105 | Eyre, Willie M | TEX | RP | 5.3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5.06 | 3.91 | 0.7 |
| 106 | Swisher, Nick T | NYA | RP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4.16 | 0.7 |
| 107 | Rundles, Rich | CLE | RP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 7.16 | 0.6 |
| 108 | Veras, Jose | CLE | RP | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4.50 | 3.66 | 0.6 |
| 109 | Wright, Jamey | KC | RP | 42.7 | 45 | 6 | 17 | 28 | 6.12 | 5.08 | 0.5 |
| 110 | Van Every, Jonathan E | BOS | RP | 0.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 7.66 | 0.5 |
| 111 | Veras, Jose | NYA | RP | 25.7 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 5.96 | 6.39 | 0.4 |
| 112 | Lewis, Jensen D | CLE | RP | 39.3 | 40 | 9 | 16 | 36 | 5.26 | 5.37 | 0.3 |
| 113 | Wood, Kerry | CLE | RP | 30.7 | 27 | 6 | 17 | 33 | 5.28 | 5.21 | 0.2 |
| 114 | Davidson, Daniel J | LAA | RP | 1.7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5.40 | 6.76 | 0.1 |
| 115 | Vizcaino, Luis | CLE | RP | 11.7 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 5.40 | 6.42 | -0.1 |
| 116 | Giese, Dan | OAK | RP | 22 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 5.32 | 6.20 | -0.1 |
| 117 | Broadway, Lance D | CHA | RP | 16 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 5.63 | 3.53 | -0.1 |
| 118 | Walker, Jamie | BAL | RP | 12.3 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 5.84 | 7.21 | -0.3 |
| 119 | Ramirez, Horacio | KC | RP | 22.7 | 27 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 6.35 | 4.79 | -0.3 |
| 120 | Gonzalez, Edgar | OAK | RP | 30.3 | 33 | 0 | 12 | 23 | 5.34 | 2.83 | -0.3 |
| 121 | Rapada, Clay | DET | RP | 2.3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7.71 | 8.30 | -0.4 |
| 122 | Castillo, Alberto B | BAL | RP | 2.3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7.71 | 6.16 | -0.6 |
| 123 | Breslow, Craig | MIN | RP | 14.3 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 6.91 | 6.86 | -0.6 |
| 124 | Henn, Sean M | MIN | RP | 11.3 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7.15 | 5.98 | -0.7 |
| 125 | Holland, Derek | TEX | RP | 60.3 | 76 | 11 | 18 | 46 | 6.41 | 4.90 | -0.7 |
| 126 | Percival, Troy | TB | RP | 11.3 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6.35 | 6.95 | -0.8 |
| 127 | Hendrickson, Mark | BAL | RP | 57.3 | 68 | 9 | 21 | 40 | 5.81 | 4.75 | -1.0 |
| 128 | Kelley, Shawn | SEA | RP | 13.7 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 5.93 | 4.84 | -1.0 |
| 129 | Melancon, Mark D | NYA | RP | 5.7 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7.94 | 5.63 | -1.1 |
| 130 | Whisler, Wesley | CHA | RP | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13.50 | 6.91 | -1.2 |
| 131 | Smith, Joe | CLE | RP | 19.7 | 19 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 5.95 | 4.33 | -1.4 |
| 132 | Thayer, Dale | TB | RP | 5.3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8.44 | 3.72 | -1.6 |
| 133 | McCrory, Bob | BAL | RP | 5 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9.00 | 4.96 | -1.9 |
| 134 | Jones, Hunter | BOS | RP | 9 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8.00 | 5.49 | -2.0 |
| 135 | Wolfe, Brian T | TOR | RP | 8.3 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7.56 | 6.64 | -2.0 |
| 136 | Shields, Scot | LAA | RP | 17.7 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 7.13 | 5.08 | -2.2 |
| 137 | Rodriguez, Fernando | LAA | RP | 0.7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 40.50 | 28.66 | -2.5 |
| 138 | Bonine, Eddie K | DET | RP | 8 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9.00 | 7.16 | -2.5 |
| 139 | Ryan, B.J. | TOR | RP | 20.7 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 13 | 6.53 | 7.37 | -2.5 |
| 140 | Gobble, Jimmy | CHA | RP | 12 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7.50 | 6.74 | -2.6 |
| 141 | Stark, Denny | SEA | RP | 11 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 7.36 | 6.98 | -2.7 |
| 142 | Humber, Philip G | MIN | RP | 4.3 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12.46 | 5.70 | -2.7 |
| 143 | Gosling, Mike F | CLE | RP | 9 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8.00 | 6.94 | -2.8 |
| 144 | Pena, Tony | CHA | RP | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18.00 | 4.16 | -2.8 |
| 145 | Sarfate, Dennis S | BAL | RP | 12.7 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 7.82 | 6.55 | -3.0 |
| 146 | Richard, Clayton C | CHA | RP | 73 | 85 | 10 | 33 | 56 | 5.92 | 4.89 | -3.1 |
| 147 | Mendoza, Luis A | TEX | RP | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36.00 | 22.16 | -3.1 |
| 148 | Corcoran, Roy | SEA | RP | 17 | 23 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 6.88 | 6.98 | -3.2 |
| 149 | Morrow, Brandon J | SEA | RP | 46 | 51 | 9 | 31 | 45 | 5.87 | 5.70 | -3.2 |
| 150 | Madrigal, Warner | TEX | RP | 8 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 10.13 | 8.41 | -3.2 |
| 151 | Morillo, Juan B | MIN | RP | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 22.50 | 13.16 | -3.3 |
| 152 | Kobayashi, Masa | CLE | RP | 9.7 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8.38 | 6.57 | -3.4 |
| 153 | MacDougal, Mike | CHA | RP | 4.3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 12.46 | 6.62 | -3.4 |
| 154 | Perez, Chris | CLE | RP | 4.3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12.46 | 6.39 | -3.6 |
| 155 | Blevins, Jerry | OAK | RP | 4.3 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12.46 | 6.16 | -3.6 |
| 156 | Robertson, Nate | DET | RP | 21 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 7.71 | 4.64 | -3.7 |
| 157 | Crain, Jesse A | MIN | RP | 17.7 | 22 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 8.66 | 5.59 | -3.9 |
| 158 | Ohka, Tomo | CLE | RP | 32.3 | 38 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 6.40 | 7.06 | -4.0 |
| 159 | Rupe, Josh | TEX | RP | 4.7 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 15.43 | 11.09 | -4.5 |
| 160 | Jakubauskas, Chris | SEA | RP | 66 | 64 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 5.86 | 4.74 | -4.5 |
| 161 | Gonzalez, Gio | OAK | RP | 24.3 | 35 | 3 | 14 | 28 | 7.03 | 3.94 | -5.0 |
| 162 | Jackson, Zach T | CLE | RP | 8.7 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10.38 | 5.93 | -5.0 |
| 163 | Lopez, Javier | BOS | RP | 11.7 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 10.03 | 6.24 | -5.1 |
| 164 | Rodriguez, Rafael | LAA | RP | 20.7 | 36 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 8.27 | 5.19 | -5.2 |
| 165 | Marte, Damaso | NYA | RP | 5.3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15.19 | 9.91 | -5.2 |
| 166 | Abreu, Winston | CLE | RP | 1.3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 40.50 | 23.41 | -5.4 |
| 167 | Casilla, Santiago | OAK | RP | 29.3 | 32 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 7.06 | 5.89 | -6.1 |
| 168 | Egbert, Jack | CHA | RP | 2.7 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.00 | 9.16 | -6.4 |
| 169 | Claggett, Anthony | NYA | RP | 1.7 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 43.20 | 19.96 | -6.6 |
| 170 | Ponson, Sidney | KC | RP | 43.3 | 58 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 7.68 | 4.43 | -6.7 |
| 171 | Benson, Kris | TEX | RP | 22.3 | 33 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 9.27 | 7.68 | -7.0 |
| 172 | Jepsen, Kevin M | LAA | RP | 17 | 28 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 10.06 | 4.34 | -7.6 |
| 173 | Gallagher, Sean | OAK | RP | 14.3 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 10.05 | 4.55 | -8.0 |
| 174 | Liz, Radhames | BAL | RP | 1.3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 67.50 | 20.41 | -9.2 |
| 175 | Ray, Chris | BAL | RP | 21.3 | 36 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 9.70 | 4.85 | -9.7 |
| 176 | Perez, Rafael E | CLE | RP | 25.3 | 37 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 8.88 | 4.94 | -10.3 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings (earned and unearned)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level reliever(not adjusted for leverage)
When I think top relievers, I usually think of Andrew Bailey first, so it's no suprise to see him topping this list. Whoever he is, he's having a very nice year. R.A. Dickey's reinvented himself as a knuckleballer and has been surprising effective, although his FIP thinks he's been pitching a little over his head. No surprise seeing Joe Nathan and Jon Papelbon near the top of the list, although Papelbon's walk rate has spiked this year and his FIP is much higher than his RA. Given his track record, I'd probably expect to see his peripherals improve moreso than to see his value degrade towards his FIP, but maybe we'll get lucky there.
Looking at the Yankees, Alfredo Aceves has actually been a touch more valuable than Mo if you ignore leverage due to more innings pitched. Given their respective FIPs, we shouldn't expect that to continue going forward. If Aceves remains in the rotation or gets a few spot starts, he'll likely also see a slight decrease in his overall effectiveness. Since beginning the year below his normal standards (3.97 ERA through May 7), Mo has been dominant (1.75 ERA since May 10).
Phil Hughes gets a bump here thanks to his time as a starter, but he's been outstanding in the pen and finally looks like the #1 prospect we heard so much about. Phil Coke's had a good year except for the HR ball, but gave up four runs in his last outing which knocked his value down by 3.5 runs. David Robertson's control is hurting his value, although he's still been useful. Brian Bruney and Brett Tomko haven't been very good, although there's possible upside with Bruney, who was dominant before going on the DL.
None of the other relievers are really worth talking about, except maybe Nick T. Swisher. I could watch clips of him fanning Gabe Kapler all day. I suppose I could mention the fact that Edwar Ramirez and Damaso Marte may end up contributing at some point this year, and that Mark Melancon has shown enough statistically and physically to expect that he should be better at some point in the not-so-distant future.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Yankees.com: Yanks make it six straight, pick up Bruney
NEW YORK—When Brian Bruney came off the disabled list, the plan was to immediately insert him back into the eighth-inning setup role. That was about two weeks ago, when there was nothing but doubt surrounding the Yankees’ bullpen situation. When the bridge to Mariano Rivera was teetering and in danger of crumbling, the Yankees took comfort in knowing Bruney would soon be back.
Then, suddenly, the bullpen without Bruney righted itself. Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson demonstrated they could pitch key innings. Phil Hughes went from being a struggling starter to a seemingly unhittable reliever. It wasn’t that they didn’t need Bruney. Instead, he would fit in as just another cog in a sturdy machine.
It hasn’t been quite that easy. Bruney has struggled of late in the eighth and has not slid back into the bullpen the way the Yankees hoped. True, they won on Tuesday, beating the Mariners, 8-5, in front of 46,181 at Yankee Stadium for their sixth straight victory. But in many ways the contest raised more questions than it answered.
PHil Hughes should pitch the eighth…
Bruney’s struggles were the major negative in last night’s win. I didn’t get to watch the game as I was on the road, but I listened and it sounded like Joba wasn’t great, but serviceable. It sounded like Phil Coke and Hughes were great, and then Bruney just stunk. Of course, John Sterling’s too busy telling us that you can’t predict baseball to give much in the way of details about how the game is actually unfolding, although I digress.
Anyway, the Yankees win coupled with the Red Sox blowing a 10-1 seventh inning lead made for a fun night in the AL East, with the Yankees moving within two games in the loss column of the AL East lead.
Friday, June 26, 2009
AL wOBA For Hitters and Pitchers Through Games of June 25, 2009
I was thinking of ways to compare pitcher and hitter value more directly and thought that it might be interesting to put them on the same scale. We often hear from people spouting conventional wisdom that a starting pitcher isn't worth as much as a position player because "they only pitch once every five days." However, if you look at their impact on a batter by batter basis, a top starting pitcher may impact 1000 plate appearances in any single season, compared to 700 at most by a hitter.So what I did was take the batting stats against every pitcher in the AL, and calculate the wOBA against them. Then I subtracted that wOBA from the league average wOBA and got a difference. That then gets added to the league average wOBA to get basically an inverse wOBA against, which should scale to what a hitter's wOBA is. From there, you can calculate runs above average using (wOBA - lgwOBA) divided by 1.15 times either PA or BF, or runs above replacement using the same formulat but substituting something like n times lgwOBA to adjust for replacement level.
Here's how the AL looks for hitters and pitchers doing this for players with at least 100 PAs or batters faced. I'm using 'n' = 0.92 to convert lgwOBA to replacement level (.8 times 1.15). Bear in mind there are no position-adjustments here.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | PA | wOBA | RAA | RAR |
| Greinke, Zack Z | KC | AL | SP | 429 | .399 | 26 | 36 |
| Mauer, Joe | MIN | AL | C | 217 | .485 | 29 | 34 |
| Jackson, Edwin | DET | AL | SP | 401 | .390 | 21 | 31 |
| Halladay, Roy | TOR | AL | SP | 404 | .389 | 21 | 30 |
| Martinez, Victor | CLE | AL | 1B | 323 | .409 | 21 | 28 |
| Youkilis, Kevin E | BOS | AL | 1B | 250 | .437 | 22 | 28 |
| Bay, Jason | BOS | AL | LF | 311 | .411 | 21 | 28 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYA | AL | 1B | 312 | .409 | 20 | 28 |
| Morneau, Justin | MIN | AL | 1B | 323 | .405 | 20 | 28 |
| Weaver, Jered D | LAA | AL | SP | 386 | .384 | 19 | 27 |
| Longoria, Evan | TB | AL | 3B | 295 | .414 | 20 | 27 |
| Zobrist, Ben T | TB | AL | RF | 238 | .437 | 21 | 27 |
| Branyan, Russell | SEA | AL | 1B | 268 | .422 | 20 | 27 |
| Hernandez, Felix A | SEA | AL | SP | 425 | .375 | 17 | 27 |
| Sabathia, CC | NYA | AL | SP | 417 | .376 | 17 | 27 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | DET | AL | 1B | 288 | .413 | 20 | 27 |
| Lind, Adam A | TOR | AL | DH | 316 | .402 | 19 | 26 |
| Hunter, Torii | LAA | AL | CF | 274 | .411 | 18 | 25 |
| Verlander, Justin B | DET | AL | SP | 400 | .372 | 15 | 24 |
| Pena, Carlos | TB | AL | 1B | 315 | .393 | 16 | 24 |
| Garza, Matt | TB | AL | SP | 399 | .367 | 13 | 22 |
| Suzuki, Ichiro | SEA | AL | RF | 298 | .393 | 15 | 22 |
| Lee, Cliff | CLE | AL | SP | 469 | .356 | 11 | 22 |
| Beckett, Josh | BOS | AL | SP | 385 | .366 | 12 | 21 |
| Washburn, Jarrod | SEA | AL | SP | 370 | .368 | 13 | 21 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | CLE | AL | RF | 319 | .382 | 13 | 21 |
| Bartlett, Jason A | TB | AL | SS | 216 | .418 | 16 | 21 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYA | AL | LF | 301 | .386 | 14 | 21 |
| Kubel, Jason J | MIN | AL | DH | 252 | .394 | 13 | 19 |
| Bailey, Andrew S | OAK | AL | RP | 180 | .421 | 14 | 18 |
| Blackburn, Nick N | MIN | AL | SP | 422 | .353 | 9 | 18 |
| Millwood, Kevin | TEX | AL | SP | 441 | .350 | 8 | 18 |
| Braden, Dallas L | OAK | AL | SP | 396 | .356 | 9 | 18 |
| Buehrle, Mark | CHA | AL | SP | 377 | .358 | 10 | 18 |
| Kinsler, Ian M | TEX | AL | 2B | 328 | .371 | 11 | 18 |
| Inge, Brandon | DET | AL | 3B | 287 | .379 | 11 | 18 |
| Overbay, Lyle | TOR | AL | 1B | 225 | .398 | 12 | 18 |
| Tallet, Brian | TOR | AL | SP | 377 | .356 | 9 | 18 |
| Floyd, Gavin C | CHA | AL | SP | 409 | .351 | 8 | 17 |
| Scutaro, Marco | TOR | AL | SS | 353 | .364 | 9 | 17 |
| Rolen, Scott | TOR | AL | 3B | 264 | .383 | 11 | 17 |
| Outman, Josh | OAK | AL | SP | 276 | .374 | 11 | 17 |
| Young, Michael | TEX | AL | 3B | 305 | .371 | 10 | 17 |
| Bedard, Erik | SEA | AL | SP | 271 | .375 | 11 | 17 |
| Cuddyer, Michael | MIN | AL | RF | 279 | .376 | 10 | 17 |
| Hill, Aaron W | TOR | AL | 2B | 344 | .362 | 8 | 16 |
| Drew, J.D. | BOS | AL | RF | 254 | .382 | 11 | 16 |
| Dye, Jermaine | CHA | AL | RF | 259 | .379 | 10 | 16 |
| Scott, Luke B | BAL | AL | DH | 207 | .397 | 11 | 16 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYA | AL | SS | 319 | .365 | 9 | 16 |
| Jones, Adam L | BAL | AL | CF | 287 | .371 | 9 | 16 |
| Figgins, Chone | LAA | AL | 3B | 314 | .365 | 8 | 16 |
| Saunders, Joe | LAA | AL | SP | 412 | .346 | 6 | 16 |
| Swisher, Nick T | NYA | AL | RF | 281 | .370 | 9 | 15 |
| Crawford, Carl | TB | AL | LF | 324 | .362 | 8 | 15 |
| Markakis, Nick | BAL | AL | RF | 319 | .360 | 7 | 14 |
| Abreu, Bobby | LAA | AL | RF | 276 | .367 | 8 | 14 |
| Richmond, Scott | TOR | AL | SP | 320 | .354 | 7 | 14 |
| Cormier, Lance R | TB | AL | RP | 179 | .395 | 10 | 14 |
| Thome, Jim | CHA | AL | DH | 219 | .382 | 9 | 14 |
| Bannister, Brian P | KC | AL | SP | 334 | .352 | 7 | 14 |
| Feldman, Scott | TEX | AL | SP | 315 | .354 | 7 | 14 |
| Roberts, Brian | BAL | AL | 2B | 328 | .355 | 6 | 14 |
| Cruz, Nelson R | TEX | AL | RF | 284 | .363 | 7 | 14 |
| Shields, James A | TB | AL | SP | 420 | .339 | 4 | 13 |
| Meche, Gil | KC | AL | SP | 380 | .342 | 4 | 13 |
| Aardsma, David | SEA | AL | RP | 140 | .410 | 10 | 13 |
| Rivera, Juan | LAA | AL | LF | 251 | .367 | 7 | 13 |
| Nathan, Joe | MIN | AL | RP | 107 | .442 | 11 | 13 |
| Konerko, Paul | CHA | AL | 1B | 283 | .360 | 6 | 13 |
| Granderson, Curtis | DET | AL | CF | 322 | .353 | 5 | 13 |
| Howell, J.P. | TB | AL | RP | 143 | .403 | 9 | 12 |
| Downs, Scott | TOR | AL | RP | 108 | .435 | 10 | 12 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYA | AL | 2B | 307 | .354 | 5 | 12 |
| Wuertz, Mike | OAK | AL | RP | 129 | .411 | 9 | 12 |
| Baker, Scott S | MIN | AL | SP | 353 | .342 | 4 | 12 |
| Mazzaro, Vince M | OAK | AL | SP | 126 | .412 | 9 | 12 |
| Danks, John W | CHA | AL | SP | 346 | .342 | 4 | 12 |
| Holliday, Matt T | OAK | AL | LF | 300 | .353 | 5 | 12 |
| Ramirez, Ramon | BOS | AL | RP | 128 | .409 | 9 | 12 |
| White, Sean A | SEA | AL | RP | 149 | .393 | 8 | 12 |
| Bergesen, Bradley S | BAL | AL | SP | 322 | .345 | 4 | 12 |
| Guerrier, Matt O | MIN | AL | RP | 129 | .400 | 8 | 11 |
| Carrasco, D.J. | CHA | AL | RP | 201 | .364 | 6 | 11 |
| Hafner, Travis | CLE | AL | DH | 111 | .419 | 8 | 11 |
| DeRosa, Mark | CLE | AL | 3B | 310 | .347 | 3 | 11 |
| Napoli, Mike A | LAA | AL | C | 195 | .370 | 6 | 11 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYA | AL | 3B | 185 | .373 | 6 | 11 |
| Wakefield, Tim | BOS | AL | SP | 390 | .333 | 1 | 10 |
| Okajima, Hideki | BOS | AL | RP | 129 | .392 | 7 | 10 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYA | AL | C | 176 | .373 | 6 | 10 |
| Lester, Jon T | BOS | AL | SP | 392 | .332 | 1 | 10 |
| Morales, Kendry | LAA | AL | 1B | 268 | .350 | 4 | 10 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYA | AL | DH | 232 | .356 | 4 | 10 |
| Baez, Danys | BAL | AL | RP | 154 | .376 | 6 | 10 |
| Padilla, Vicente | TEX | AL | SP | 344 | .335 | 2 | 10 |
| Callaspo, Alberto | KC | AL | 2B | 262 | .350 | 4 | 10 |
| Aybar, Willy | TB | AL | 2B | 160 | .376 | 6 | 10 |
| Kennedy, Adam | OAK | AL | 2B | 193 | .363 | 5 | 9 |
| Uehara, Koji | BAL | AL | SP | 279 | .341 | 3 | 9 |
| Span, Denard D | MIN | AL | LF | 269 | .347 | 3 | 9 |
| Pedroia, Dustin L | BOS | AL | 2B | 321 | .340 | 2 | 9 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | AL | RP | 132 | .382 | 6 | 9 |
| Teahen, Mark T | KC | AL | 3B | 276 | .345 | 3 | 9 |
| Palmer, Matt | LAA | AL | SP | 264 | .342 | 3 | 9 |
| Coke, Phil | NYA | AL | RP | 126 | .381 | 6 | 9 |
| Jones, Andruw | TEX | AL | DH | 151 | .373 | 5 | 9 |
| Cabrera, Asdrubal J | CLE | AL | 2B | 231 | .350 | 3 | 8 |
| Johnson, Jim | BAL | AL | RP | 147 | .368 | 5 | 8 |
| Porcello, Rick A | DET | AL | SP | 330 | .331 | 1 | 8 |
| Thornton, Matt J | CHA | AL | RP | 114 | .384 | 6 | 8 |
| Lowell, Mike | BOS | AL | 3B | 281 | .340 | 2 | 8 |
| Masterson, Justin | BOS | AL | RP | 253 | .339 | 2 | 8 |
| Butler, Billy R | KC | AL | 1B | 277 | .340 | 1 | 8 |
| Gross, Gabe J | TB | AL | RF | 152 | .366 | 4 | 8 |
| Vargas, Jason M | SEA | AL | SP | 207 | .346 | 3 | 8 |
| Rivera, Mariano | NYA | AL | RP | 118 | .377 | 5 | 8 |
| Cahill, Trevor | OAK | AL | SP | 364 | .327 | -1 | 8 |
| Huff, Aubrey | BAL | AL | 1B | 294 | .337 | 1 | 8 |
| Dickey, R.A. | MIN | AL | RP | 177 | .352 | 4 | 8 |
| Reimold, Nolan | BAL | AL | LF | 130 | .374 | 5 | 8 |
| Sherrill, George F | BAL | AL | RP | 116 | .377 | 5 | 8 |
| Varitek, Jason | BOS | AL | C | 221 | .346 | 2 | 7 |
| Papelbon, Jonathan R | BOS | AL | RP | 137 | .364 | 4 | 7 |
| Jakubauskas, Chris | SEA | AL | RP | 249 | .335 | 1 | 7 |
| Lyon, Brandon | DET | AL | RP | 152 | .356 | 4 | 7 |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | BOS | AL | CF | 303 | .334 | 0 | 7 |
| Perkins, Glen W | MIN | AL | SP | 255 | .333 | 1 | 7 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYA | AL | CF | 223 | .341 | 1 | 7 |
| Contreras, Jose | CHA | AL | SP | 228 | .335 | 1 | 6 |
| Iwamura, Akinori | TB | AL | 2B | 176 | .348 | 2 | 6 |
| Rios, Alex I | TOR | AL | RF | 332 | .328 | -2 | 6 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | AL | SP | 330 | .324 | -1 | 6 |
| Rodney, Fernando | DET | AL | RP | 130 | .356 | 3 | 6 |
| Jenks, Bobby | CHA | AL | RP | 112 | .364 | 3 | 6 |
| Lowe, Mark | SEA | AL | RP | 153 | .346 | 2 | 6 |
| Balfour, Grant | TB | AL | RP | 148 | .347 | 2 | 6 |
| Pierzynski, A.J. | CHA | AL | C | 230 | .335 | 0 | 6 |
| Speier, Justin | LAA | AL | RP | 117 | .356 | 3 | 5 |
| Blalock, Hank | TEX | AL | DH | 220 | .335 | 0 | 5 |
| Burnett, A.J. | NYA | AL | SP | 378 | .319 | -3 | 5 |
| Guillen, Jose | KC | AL | RF | 232 | .333 | 0 | 5 |
| Batista, Miguel | SEA | AL | RP | 165 | .339 | 1 | 5 |
| Delcarmen, Manny | BOS | AL | RP | 128 | .349 | 2 | 5 |
| Green, Nick | BOS | AL | SS | 184 | .339 | 1 | 5 |
| Podsednik, Scott | CHA | AL | LF | 216 | .334 | 0 | 5 |
| Kapler, Gabe | TB | AL | RF | 113 | .356 | 2 | 5 |
| Gonzalez, Edgar | OAK | AL | RP | 105 | .355 | 2 | 5 |
| Crede, Joe | MIN | AL | 3B | 225 | .332 | 0 | 5 |
| Swarzak, Anthony | MIN | AL | SP | 119 | .349 | 2 | 5 |
| Giambi, Jason | OAK | AL | 1B | 273 | .327 | -2 | 5 |
| Hochevar, Luke | KC | AL | SP | 164 | .335 | 1 | 5 |
| Griffey Jr., Ken | SEA | AL | DH | 221 | .331 | -1 | 5 |
| Niemann, Jeff | TB | AL | SP | 315 | .319 | -3 | 5 |
| Carlson, Jesse C | TOR | AL | RP | 155 | .336 | 1 | 4 |
| Laffey, Aaron S | CLE | AL | RP | 145 | .338 | 1 | 4 |
| Wilson, C.J. | TEX | AL | RP | 131 | .341 | 1 | 4 |
| Quentin, Carlos J | CHA | AL | LF | 151 | .340 | 1 | 4 |
| Saito, Takashi | BOS | AL | RP | 115 | .345 | 2 | 4 |
| Byrd, Marlon | TEX | AL | CF | 244 | .327 | -1 | 4 |
| Dotel, Octavio | CHA | AL | RP | 132 | .339 | 1 | 4 |
| Garko, Ryan F | CLE | AL | 1B | 184 | .333 | 0 | 4 |
| Harris, Brendan | MIN | AL | SS | 232 | .328 | -1 | 4 |
| Bautista, Jose A | TOR | AL | LF | 141 | .340 | 1 | 4 |
| Slowey, Kevin | MIN | AL | SP | 362 | .315 | -5 | 4 |
| Jennings, Jason | TEX | AL | RP | 172 | .328 | 0 | 4 |
| Bulger, Jason P | LAA | AL | RP | 128 | .336 | 1 | 4 |
| Lugo, Julio | BOS | AL | SS | 104 | .348 | 1 | 4 |
| Olson, Garrett | SEA | AL | RP | 183 | .325 | -1 | 4 |
| Fuentes, Brian | LAA | AL | RP | 106 | .342 | 1 | 4 |
| Betancourt, Rafael | CLE | AL | RP | 114 | .339 | 1 | 4 |
| Oliver, Darren | LAA | AL | RP | 131 | .334 | 1 | 4 |
| Carroll, Jamey | CLE | AL | 2B | 130 | .338 | 0 | 3 |
| McCarthy, Brandon P | TEX | AL | SP | 281 | .316 | -3 | 3 |
| Cust, Jack | OAK | AL | DH | 281 | .321 | -3 | 3 |
| Hughes, Phil | NYA | AL | RP | 197 | .321 | -1 | 3 |
| Pettitte, Andy | NYA | AL | SP | 403 | .311 | -6 | 3 |
| Arredondo, Jose J | LAA | AL | RP | 110 | .335 | 1 | 3 |
| Murphy, David M | TEX | AL | LF | 182 | .326 | -1 | 3 |
| Olivo, Miguel | KC | AL | C | 178 | .326 | -1 | 3 |
| League, Brandon P | TOR | AL | RP | 140 | .326 | 0 | 3 |
| Camp, Shawn A | TOR | AL | RP | 139 | .326 | 0 | 3 |
| Sizemore, Grady | CLE | AL | CF | 245 | .320 | -3 | 3 |
| Ray, Robert A | TOR | AL | SP | 101 | .333 | 0 | 3 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYA | AL | CF | 170 | .325 | -1 | 3 |
| Jacobs, Mike | KC | AL | DH | 246 | .320 | -3 | 3 |
| Santiago, Ramon | DET | AL | SS | 127 | .331 | 0 | 3 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | DET | AL | RF | 253 | .319 | -3 | 3 |
| Albers, Matt J | BAL | AL | RP | 127 | .326 | 0 | 3 |
| Suzuki, Kurt K | OAK | AL | C | 266 | .318 | -4 | 2 |
| Cruz, Juan | KC | AL | RP | 122 | .326 | 0 | 2 |
| Perry, Ryan | DET | AL | RP | 124 | .325 | 0 | 2 |
| Romero, Ricky | TOR | AL | SP | 243 | .313 | -3 | 2 |
| Ziegler, Brad G | OAK | AL | RP | 140 | .321 | -1 | 2 |
| Zumaya, Joel M | DET | AL | RP | 110 | .325 | 0 | 2 |
| Miner, Zach C | DET | AL | RP | 198 | .314 | -3 | 2 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | CLE | AL | SS | 277 | .315 | -5 | 2 |
| Sweeney, Mike | SEA | AL | DH | 118 | .325 | -1 | 2 |
| Linebrink, Scott | CHA | AL | RP | 122 | .318 | -1 | 2 |
| Casilla, Santiago | OAK | AL | RP | 111 | .318 | -1 | 1 |
| Nelson, Joe | TB | AL | RP | 139 | .314 | -2 | 1 |
| Crisp, Coco | KC | AL | CF | 215 | .315 | -4 | 1 |
| Thomas, Clete | DET | AL | RF | 127 | .319 | -2 | 1 |
| Wells, Vernon | TOR | AL | CF | 332 | .312 | -6 | 1 |
| Hill, Rich | BAL | AL | SP | 168 | .311 | -3 | 1 |
| Burrell, Pat | TB | AL | DH | 161 | .316 | -3 | 1 |
| Shoppach, Kelly B | CLE | AL | C | 170 | .315 | -3 | 1 |
| Berken, Jason T | BAL | AL | SP | 144 | .311 | -2 | 1 |
| Hamilton, Josh H | TEX | AL | CF | 138 | .316 | -2 | 1 |
| Gutierrez, Franklin R | SEA | AL | CF | 250 | .312 | -5 | 1 |
| Zaun, Gregg | BAL | AL | C | 156 | .314 | -3 | 1 |
| Bass, Brian M | BAL | AL | RP | 198 | .307 | -4 | 1 |
| Millar, Kevin | TOR | AL | 1B | 148 | .313 | -3 | 1 |
| Guthrie, Jeremy | BAL | AL | SP | 379 | .305 | -8 | 1 |
| Veras, Jose | NYA | AL | RP | 118 | .307 | -2 | 0 |
| Davies, Kyle K | KC | AL | SP | 348 | .304 | -8 | 0 |
| Price, David T | TB | AL | SP | 142 | .305 | -3 | 0 |
| Richard, Clayton C | CHA | AL | RP | 278 | .304 | -6 | 0 |
| Barajas, Rod | TOR | AL | C | 232 | .308 | -5 | 0 |
| Ramirez, Alexei | CHA | AL | SS | 284 | .308 | -6 | 0 |
| Robertson, Nate | DET | AL | RP | 102 | .302 | -2 | 0 |
| Huff, David G | CLE | AL | SP | 181 | .302 | -4 | 0 |
| Morrow, Brandon J | SEA | AL | RP | 143 | .302 | -3 | 0 |
| Izturis, Maicer E | LAA | AL | 2B | 166 | .306 | -4 | 0 |
| Sowers, Jeremy B | CLE | AL | SP | 179 | .301 | -4 | 0 |
| Upton, B.J. | TB | AL | CF | 311 | .306 | -8 | 0 |
| Maier, Mitch W | KC | AL | CF | 114 | .304 | -3 | 0 |
| Wigginton, Ty | BAL | AL | 3B | 191 | .305 | -5 | 0 |
| Pavano, Carl | CLE | AL | SP | 372 | .301 | -9 | 0 |
| Polanco, Placido | DET | AL | 2B | 285 | .305 | -7 | 0 |
| Reyes, Anthony L | CLE | AL | SP | 176 | .299 | -5 | 0 |
| Ortiz, David | BOS | AL | DH | 275 | .305 | -7 | -1 |
| Bloomquist, Willie | KC | AL | SS | 182 | .304 | -5 | -1 |
| Buscher, Brian | MIN | AL | 3B | 106 | .301 | -3 | -1 |
| Wright, Jamey | KC | AL | RP | 145 | .297 | -4 | -1 |
| Ayala, Luis | MIN | AL | RP | 138 | .297 | -4 | -1 |
| Penny, Brad | BOS | AL | SP | 346 | .300 | -9 | -1 |
| DeJesus, David | KC | AL | LF | 283 | .303 | -8 | -1 |
| Valbuena, Luis A | CLE | AL | 2B | 130 | .298 | -4 | -1 |
| Mora, Melvin | BAL | AL | 3B | 214 | .301 | -6 | -1 |
| Snider, Travis J | TOR | AL | LF | 108 | .295 | -4 | -1 |
| Colon, Bartolo | CHA | AL | SP | 249 | .297 | -7 | -1 |
| Andrus, Elvis | TEX | AL | SS | 214 | .300 | -6 | -1 |
| Wood, Kerry | CLE | AL | RP | 113 | .289 | -4 | -1 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | LAA | AL | DH | 143 | .296 | -5 | -1 |
| Lewis, Jensen D | CLE | AL | RP | 164 | .292 | -5 | -2 |
| Ramirez, Horacio | KC | AL | RP | 104 | .285 | -4 | -2 |
| Holland, Derek | TEX | AL | RP | 191 | .293 | -6 | -2 |
| Anderson, Brian N | CHA | AL | CF | 175 | .297 | -6 | -2 |
| Davis, Chris | TEX | AL | 1B | 248 | .300 | -7 | -2 |
| Ponson, Sidney | KC | AL | RP | 202 | .292 | -6 | -2 |
| Saltalamacchia, Jarrod S | TEX | AL | C | 209 | .297 | -7 | -2 |
| Davis, Rajai | OAK | AL | CF | 110 | .287 | -4 | -2 |
| Balentien, Wladimir R | SEA | AL | LF | 143 | .291 | -5 | -2 |
| Loux, Shane | LAA | AL | SP | 174 | .289 | -6 | -2 |
| Chavez, Endy | SEA | AL | LF | 182 | .294 | -6 | -2 |
| Liriano, Francisco | MIN | AL | SP | 371 | .296 | -11 | -2 |
| Aybar, Erick J | LAA | AL | SS | 211 | .295 | -7 | -2 |
| Fields, Josh | CHA | AL | 3B | 227 | .296 | -8 | -2 |
| Lackey, John | LAA | AL | SP | 211 | .290 | -7 | -2 |
| Beltre, Adrian | SEA | AL | 3B | 300 | .298 | -9 | -2 |
| Pie, Felix | BAL | AL | LF | 110 | .280 | -5 | -3 |
| Laird, Gerald | DET | AL | C | 218 | .293 | -8 | -3 |
| Everett, Adam | DET | AL | SS | 185 | .290 | -7 | -3 |
| Anderson, Brett F | OAK | AL | SP | 307 | .292 | -10 | -3 |
| Francisco, Ben B | CLE | AL | LF | 260 | .294 | -9 | -3 |
| Purcey, David K | TOR | AL | SP | 120 | .273 | -6 | -3 |
| Springer, Russ | OAK | AL | RP | 124 | .274 | -6 | -3 |
| Willis, Dontrelle | DET | AL | SP | 160 | .280 | -7 | -3 |
| Sweeney, Ryan J | OAK | AL | CF | 233 | .289 | -9 | -4 |
| Anderson, Josh | DET | AL | LF | 141 | .275 | -7 | -4 |
| Mahay, Ron | KC | AL | RP | 116 | .262 | -7 | -4 |
| Lopez, Jose C | SEA | AL | 2B | 267 | .289 | -10 | -4 |
| Hendrickson, Mark | BAL | AL | RP | 215 | .278 | -9 | -4 |
| Izturis, Cesar | BAL | AL | SS | 159 | .274 | -8 | -5 |
| Getz, Chris | CHA | AL | 2B | 216 | .283 | -10 | -5 |
| Andino, Robert L | BAL | AL | SS | 110 | .259 | -7 | -5 |
| Carmona, Fausto C | CLE | AL | SP | 291 | .284 | -11 | -5 |
| Kendrick, Howie | LAA | AL | 2B | 201 | .279 | -10 | -5 |
| Matthews Jr., Gary | LAA | AL | RF | 151 | .269 | -9 | -5 |
| Gomez, Carlos A | MIN | AL | CF | 177 | .274 | -9 | -5 |
| Mathis, Jeff | LAA | AL | C | 122 | .258 | -8 | -5 |
| Hannahan, Jack | OAK | AL | 3B | 129 | .260 | -8 | -5 |
| Sonnanstine, Andy | TB | AL | SP | 362 | .286 | -14 | -5 |
| Crosby, Bobby | OAK | AL | 1B | 173 | .271 | -9 | -5 |
| Harrison, Matt | TEX | AL | SP | 283 | .279 | -12 | -6 |
| Silva, Carlos | SEA | AL | SP | 132 | .251 | -9 | -6 |
| Eveland, Dana J | OAK | AL | SP | 127 | .249 | -9 | -6 |
| Guillen, Carlos | DET | AL | LF | 101 | .238 | -8 | -6 |
| Young, Delmon D | MIN | AL | LF | 180 | .264 | -11 | -7 |
| Cecil, Brett | TOR | AL | SP | 151 | .251 | -10 | -7 |
| Santana, Ervin R | LAA | AL | SP | 150 | .251 | -10 | -7 |
| Perez, Rafael E | CLE | AL | RP | 109 | .230 | -9 | -7 |
| Janssen, Casey C | TOR | AL | SP | 123 | .236 | -10 | -7 |
| Punto, Nick | MIN | AL | SS | 180 | .261 | -11 | -7 |
| Kazmir, Scott E | TB | AL | SP | 224 | .264 | -13 | -7 |
| Johnson, Rob | SEA | AL | C | 128 | .240 | -10 | -8 |
| Benson, Kris | TEX | AL | RP | 114 | .225 | -10 | -8 |
| Tolbert, Matt | MIN | AL | 2B | 129 | .232 | -11 | -8 |
| Galarraga, Armando | DET | AL | SP | 355 | .274 | -17 | -9 |
| Eaton, Adam | BAL | AL | SP | 194 | .247 | -14 | -9 |
| Casilla, Alexi | MIN | AL | 2B | 121 | .216 | -12 | -10 |
| Cedeno, Ronny | SEA | AL | 2B | 101 | .193 | -12 | -10 |
| Betancourt, Yuniesky | SEA | AL | SS | 245 | .260 | -16 | -10 |
| Cabrera, Orlando | OAK | AL | SS | 312 | .267 | -18 | -11 |
| Aviles, Mike A | KC | AL | SS | 127 | .200 | -15 | -12 |
| Navarro, Dioner F | TB | AL | C | 228 | .236 | -19 | -14 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | AL | SP | 162 | .201 | -18 | -14 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | BOS | AL | SP | 177 | .198 | -20 | -16 |
Congratulations are in order to Chien-Ming Wang, as I've finally found a metric that doesn't have him as the least valuable player in the AL.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
2009 Projection Checkpoint Through Games of June 25 - Pitching
Following up on Last week's post about their projections, here's a look at the pitching. I'm only going to look at player's who've pitched at least 20 innings in the majors for now.One thing that needs to be noted is that no one knew how New Yankee Stadium would play, so we don't know what the park factor impact was to the projections. So make a mental note of that at the very least when looking at the numbers that follow. If the projections seem too optimistic, it's likely that the park factor is at least part of it. Projections are pro-rated to actual YTD playing time, so pay special attention to HRs since that has been the biggest issue in NYS.
C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia was the Yankees' big free agent target and acquisition this off-season. Has he been worth it so far?
| C.C. Sabathia | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 102 | 99 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 21 | 89 | 3.41 | 3.23 | 12 | 25 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 102 | 94 | 39 | 35 | 9 | 24 | 96 | 3.07 | 3.13 | 16 | 29 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 102 | 98 | 43 | 39 | 10 | 23 | 89 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 12 | 25 |
| 2009 tht projection | 102 | 94 | 40 | 37 | 10 | 21 | 90 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 14 | 27 |
| 2009 zips projection | 102 | 98 | 38 | 35 | 10 | 21 | 93 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 16 | 29 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 102 | 99 | 44 | 39 | 9 | 27 | 89 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 12 | 24 |
| 2009 average projection | 102 | 97 | 41 | 37 | 9 | 23 | 91 | 3.29 | 3.28 | 14 | 27 |
| 2009 YTD | 102 | 85 | 45 | 42 | 8 | 31 | 70 | 3.71 | 3.76 | 9 | 22 |
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement
C.C.'s been a little worse than expected to this point. Interestingly, he's actually allowed fewer homers than any of the projections expected despite the homerrificness of NYS. The bigger issue is the BB rate is higher and the K rate is lower. He's giving up fewer hits than projected, as well. Still, he has an established track record of excellence and is(HOPEFULLY) healthy, so we should see him improve a little as the season goes on.
A.J. Burnett
It's funny with Burnett. A lot of Yankee bloggers and most analysts hated his signing at the time. I didn't hate it, I thought it was risky but could pay off. However, the reason everyone hated it was because Burnett was supposedly an injury risk. Not one analyst said that Burnett wouldn't pitch well when he could pitch, they just thought he wouldn't pitch enough (please correct me on this if I missed anyone). Now that Burnett's been healthy and pitching erratically, many of those same analysts are alluding that the reason they didn't like the Burnett signing was because they knew he would be erratic, not because of the health risk. I call BS.
| A.J. Burnett | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 87 | 83 | 41 | 38 | 8 | 33 | 85 | 3.88 | 3.61 | 6 | 17 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 87 | 81 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 33 | 84 | 3.99 | 3.72 | 5 | 16 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 87 | 83 | 40 | 37 | 8 | 32 | 79 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 7 | 17 |
| 2009 tht projection | 87 | 81 | 40 | 37 | 9 | 32 | 81 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 6 | 17 |
| 2009 zips projection | 87 | 84 | 41 | 38 | 10 | 32 | 83 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 5 | 16 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 87 | 83 | 43 | 39 | 9 | 26 | 82 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 4 | 15 |
| 2009 average projection | 87 | 82 | 41 | 38 | 9 | 31 | 82 | 3.93 | 3.71 | 5 | 16 |
| 2009 YTD | 87 | 81 | 44 | 41 | 13 | 44 | 82 | 4.24 | 4.77 | 3 | 13 |
Burnett hasn't been particularly good so far, due to giving up four more HRs and 13 more BBs than his average projection expected over the 87 innings he's pitched. While his ERA of 4.24 is respectable, it belies a FIP of 4.77 which is a non-trivial concern going forward. While it's still too early to judge his contract only 8% of the way through it, the nay-sayers appear to have been right so far. I still think(hope) A.J. can turn it around.
Andy Pettitte
Pettitte's been one pitcher who's really struggled in NYS (Opponents are hitting .332/.392/.500 against him at home, compared to .207/.277/.329 on the road). Interestingly, his combined stats are very much in-line with how he was projected.
| Andy Pettitte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 87 | 96 | 45 | 42 | 8 | 28 | 65 | 4.31 | 3.84 | 2 | 13 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 87 | 98 | 46 | 42 | 9 | 27 | 63 | 4.38 | 3.99 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 87 | 96 | 47 | 42 | 9 | 27 | 61 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 tht projection | 87 | 95 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 26 | 60 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 2 | 13 |
| 2009 zips projection | 87 | 97 | 46 | 43 | 8 | 27 | 61 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 87 | 96 | 47 | 43 | 9 | 26 | 62 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 1 | 11 |
| 2009 average projection | 87 | 96 | 46 | 42 | 8 | 27 | 62 | 4.37 | 3.98 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 YTD | 87 | 96 | 44 | 41 | 11 | 33 | 57 | 4.26 | 4.68 | 2 | 13 |
Pettitte's not pretty to watch, but despite his ugly peripherals he's a touch above average in terms of run prevention and gives the team innings. It would be nice if he could get his home performance to match his road performance a little more closely though.
Joba Chamberlain
| Joba Chamberlain | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 76 | 66 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 84 | 3.39 | 3.30 | 9 | 19 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 76 | 67 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 28 | 78 | 3.07 | 3.14 | 12 | 21 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 76 | 65 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 29 | 81 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 12 | 21 |
| 2009 tht projection | 76 | 62 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 30 | 84 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 11 | 20 |
| 2009 zips projection | 76 | 73 | 34 | 32 | 7 | 30 | 74 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 6 | 16 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 76 | 72 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 26 | 77 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 9 | 18 |
| 2009 average projection | 76 | 68 | 30 | 28 | 6 | 28 | 80 | 3.33 | 3.27 | 10 | 19 |
| 2009 YTD | 76 | 70 | 36 | 32 | 8 | 37 | 69 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 6 | 15 |
Despite the Yankees' foolish insistence on using a reliever in the starting rotation, Joba's been the Yankees' second most valuable starter. That his season line seems disappointing is more a testament to how well he has done the past two seasons than any real disappointment in his current performance. He's walking a few more batters and striking out a few less batters than expected, but part of that is the fact that his projections include his relief stats, which are going to boost his projections slightly since relieving is easier than starting. As long as we remember that he's 23 and still working his way up to building the stamina to become a full-time starter, we should be encouraged by his performance to date. He's already pitched 76 innings, something that would take him a whole season to do as a reliever.
Phil Hughes
I think some people forget that Hughes is nine months younger than Joba. While his MLB time has been mixed, he's looked pretty good this year. I was at the game versus the Braves on Tuesday and the Braves fans were oohing and aahing when Hughes hit 96 on his fastball several times. The myth of his 'only 91 mph fastball' should be silenced now. A healthy Hughes has the stuff that made him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Now he's hitting 96 in relief, which means he's probably going to lose some of that velocity when he moves back to the rotation, but he should still maintain enough to be effective.
| Phil Hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 45 | 46 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 4.28 | 4.10 | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 45 | 45 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 17 | 35 | 4.61 | 4.19 | -1 | 5 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 45 | 47 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 36 | 4.74 | 4.27 | -1 | 4 |
| 2009 tht projection | 45 | 44 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 35 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 zips projection | 45 | 47 | 23 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 45 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 0 | 5 |
| 2009 average projection | 45 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 35 | 4.45 | 4.10 | 0 | 6 |
| 2009 YTD | 45 | 42 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 17 | 45 | 4.57 | 4.35 | 0 | 5 |
As you can see Hughes is pitching around where his projections expected, although with a higher K rate. In general, a starter moved to relief will see his K rate increase by about 16%, so that explains part of the higher K rate. Still, Hughes is finally flashing the talent that made him famous. I'd still like to see him starting again, either in the majors or in AAA, because I think he needs to build his innings up.
Chien-Ming Wang
Hide the women and the kids, because what you are about to see is explicit.
| Chien-Ming Wang | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 31 | 37 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 4.47 | 3.86 | 0 | 4 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 31 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 3.83 | 3.89 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 31 | 35 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 0 | 4 |
| 2009 tht projection | 31 | 34 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 zips projection | 31 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 31 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 1 | 5 |
| 2009 average projection | 31 | 34 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 4.11 | 3.98 | 1 | 5 |
| 2009 YTD | 31 | 56 | 40 | 39 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 11.21 | 5.53 | -23 | -19 |
If Wang can pitch 120 more innings at his average projected ERA of 4.11, he'll end the season with 151 innings and a 5.89 ERA. In the entire history of the Yankees, there have only been three pitchers to pitch at least 140 innings with an ERA of 5.5 or higher:
David Cone in 2000 (6.91 ERA in 155 IP).
Jeff Weaver in 2003 (5.99 ERA in 159.1 IP).
Kenny Rogers in 1997 (5.65 ERA in 145 IP).
The good news is Wang has been a little better lately and may be able to pitch closer to his projections over the rest of the season. Also, this may make Wang cheaper in arbitration next year. The bad news is there's very little chance of Wang salvaging this season and finishing with respectable numbers, although that doesn't really matter going forward.
Phil Coke
Coke impressed in 2008, but prior to that his minor league numbers werent' all that good, as reflected in his projections.
| Phil Coke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 4.25 | 3.96 | 1 | 5 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 30 | 28 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 30 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 4.99 | 4.43 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 tht projection | 30 | 34 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 5.44 | 5.33 | -3 | 1 |
| 2009 zips projection | 30 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 4.91 | 4.72 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 30 | 39 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 5.82 | 4.33 | -4 | -1 |
| 2009 average projection | 30 | 33 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 4.89 | 4.44 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 YTD | 30 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 3.56 | 5.08 | 3 | 7 |
Now a lot of the input into his projections were based on Coke being a starter. If you convert his average projection to a relief equivalent, you get a revised line of:
| IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 30 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 3.89 | 4.20 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
The starter->relief conversion that I use assumes:
H: 0.87
R/ER: 0.79
HR: .95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.16
So what those mean is, for example, if a pitcher is projected to give up 100 hits as a starter, he should give 0.87 times 100 = 87 hits as a reliever.
He's given up fewer hits than the relief conversion would have expected, and more HRs, but the BB rate and K rate are reasonably close. While his ERA is good, his peripherals are a warning that he hasn't pitched as well as the ERA shows. I have no idea whether we should expect his peripherals to improve to match his ERA, or if we should expect him to pitch closer to his FIP going forward.
Alfredo Aceves
In a season where almost every member of the bullpen has disappointed, AA is an oasis in a desert of suck. Aceves was projected as a starter, where he was expected to be slightly worse than average, but solidly above replacement level.
| Alfredo Aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 31 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 4.95 | 4.87 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 31 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 3.86 | 4.34 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 31 | 35 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 5.03 | 4.84 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 tht projection | 31 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 4.95 | 4.87 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 zips projection | 31 | 36 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 5.19 | 5.18 | -2 | 1 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 31 | 32 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 4.83 | 4.37 | -1 | 3 |
| 2009 average projection | 31 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 4.80 | 4.75 | -1 | 3 |
| 2009 YTD | 31 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 2.32 | 3.72 | 8 | 11 |
Same deal as with Coke, if we convert his projection to a relief equivalent, we get an improved line of:
| IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 31 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 3.89 | 4.20 | 2.1 | 5.2 |
FIP expects him to pitch closer to an ERA in the mid 3s going forward, looking at both his YTD performance and his revised projection, but he should still be a solid asset in the pen going forward.
Jose Veras
| jose veras | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 26 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 4.05 | 3.80 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 26 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 4.09 | 4.22 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 26 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 tht projection | 26 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 zips projection | 26 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 26 | 27 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 0 | 3 |
| 2009 average projection | 26 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 YTD | 26 | 23 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 5.95 | 5.96 | -4 | -1 |
While Veras had a good season last year, he slumped later in the year, and his command was always a major concern. Veras's command was horrible this year and it's reflected in his results. He's been traded to Cleveland for cash considerations.
Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo was expected to be a decent back-end relief option although his projections weren't really all that good.
| jonathan albaladejo | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 21 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 4.75 | 4.67 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 21 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 4.09 | 3.90 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 21 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 0 | 2 |
| 2009 tht projection | 21 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 zips projection | 21 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 4.87 | 4.87 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 21 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 5.29 | 4.67 | -2 | 1 |
| 2009 average projection | 21 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 4.60 | 4.51 | 0 | 2 |
| 2009 YTD | 21 | 24 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 6.00 | 6.58 | -4 | -1 |
He essentially matched Veras's output though, with a few less walks and Ks. He's doing well back in Scranton/WB and may end up getting another chance this year.
Mariano F'ing Rivera
Mo's early season velocity wasn't very good as he was building up arm strength after off-season surgery. Seeing his cutter at 88-89 mph was alarming, as was seeing batters hit .306/.306/.551 against him over his first 12 games. His velocity's been better lately and over his last 16 games he's looked more like Mo, with a 2.55 ERA and with hitters hitting .185/.221/.292 against him.
| Mariano Rivera | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 29 | 26 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 2.86 | 2.64 | 5 | 9 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 29 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 3.09 | 3.08 | 5 | 8 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 29 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 7 | 10 |
| 2009 tht projection | 29 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 6 | 10 |
| 2009 zips projection | 29 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 7 | 11 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 29 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 7 | 10 |
| 2009 average projection | 29 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 2.59 | 2.61 | 6 | 10 |
| 2009 YTD | 29 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 5 | 8 |
A lot has been made of Mo's high K rate, and his K/9 of 11.5 is 37% higher than his projected 8.4. Even if you instead look at the more accurate Ks per batters faced, you can see that Mo has fanned 31.6% of the batters he's faced, compared to his projected 23%. That's 37% higher. So we should be comfortable that Mo will be fine going forward, although there will almost certainly be at least one more WWWMW along the way.
Team
Here are the cumulative totals for the players above:
| Total | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 565 | 565 | 267 | 247 | 54 | 185 | 495 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 36.0 | 106.6 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 565 | 544 | 256 | 236 | 51 | 187 | 483 | 3.75 | 3.66 | 46.9 | 117.5 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 565 | 563 | 270 | 247 | 54 | 187 | 472 | 3.93 | 3.76 | 35.9 | 106.6 |
| 2009 tht projection | 565 | 545 | 260 | 241 | 56 | 188 | 474 | 3.84 | 3.81 | 41.5 | 112.1 |
| 2009 zips projection | 565 | 574 | 268 | 248 | 56 | 184 | 462 | 3.95 | 3.82 | 34.4 | 105.0 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 565 | 574 | 278 | 257 | 56 | 163 | 456 | 4.10 | 3.75 | 25.4 | 96.0 |
| 2009 average projection | 565 | 561 | 267 | 246 | 55 | 182 | 474 | 3.92 | 3.75 | 36.7 | 107.3 |
| 2009 YTD | 565 | 549 | 300 | 279 | 77 | 222 | 464 | 4.44 | 4.51 | 3.5 | 74.1 |
The staff as comprised above has allowed 22 more HRs than expected, while walking 40 more batters and fanning 10 fewer. They've been close to three wins worse than projected to this point. At 39-32 they're on a projected 89 win pace. If they had those 3 wins, they'd be 42-29 and on a 96 win pace.
Projecting pitching is a pain in the ass, because even if you nail the peripherals, ERA is subject to fluctuations that we can't predict. If we look at the RMSE(root mean square error) for each individual pitchers' ERA, the projection systems rank like this:
| Projection | rERA |
| chone | 0.78 |
| cairo | 0.80 |
| average | 0.81 |
| pecota | 0.81 |
| marcel | 0.83 |
| zips | 0.83 |
| tht | 0.86 |
If we want to instead look at how well the systems did in projecting the peripherals, we can look at the RMSE of FIP, and that looks like this:
| Projection | rFIP |
| cairo | 0.83 |
| pecota | 0.84 |
| average | 0.85 |
| tht | 0.85 |
| marcel | 0.85 |
| zips | 0.86 |
| chone | 0.87 |
And lastly, if we average ERA and FIP and then look at the RMSE of the average, we get this:
| Projection | r((ERA+FIP)/2) |
| cairo | 0.81 |
| pecota | 0.83 |
| chone | 0.83 |
| average | 0.83 |
| marcel | 0.84 |
| zips | 0.85 |
| tht | 0.86 |
We do have to consider the impact of NYS on these projections, and we do also have to remember there's still close to 60% of the season left to play and a lot can change. On the whole, we can see the pitching staff has been disappointing overall, but they have been better in June and can hopefully carry that going forward.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Yankee Team Splits for June 2009 Through Games of June 23
The thing that sucks about going to see baseball live (aside from leaving the basement and seeing the scary sun) is that when your team is sucking, you can't switch the channel to watch The Deadliest Catch. Anyway, as most Yankee fans know, June has been a pretty ugly month. The Yankees entered June with a record of 29-21 and a half game lead in the AL East. They were averaging 5.4 runs per game offensively, although the pitching had been disappointing with an RA of 4.94 per game.In June they've only won nine of 20 games, and are scoring 4.7 runs per game. The pitching has been much improved, with an RA of 4.29, but the offense going MIA has been the big problem. They've lost 5.5 games in the standings, although they are still in the wild card lead (tied with Toronto) and 0.5 games ahead of Texas and LA of A.
Here are the team's June splits for offense, pitching and defense.
| Player | Split | G | PA | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | wOBA | Ratio |
| Derek Jeter | June | 18 | 78 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .286 | .359 | .400 | 11 | .338 | .950 |
| Robinson Cano | June | 20 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | .282 | .321 | .436 | 11 | .325 | .937 |
| Johnny Damon | June | 19 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | .219 | .324 | .469 | 10 | .337 | .911 |
| Nick Swisher | June | 19 | 73 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | .267 | .397 | .500 | 12 | .381 | 1.037 |
| Mark Teixeira | June | 19 | 83 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .286 | .398 | .557 | 15 | .384 | .968 |
| Jorge Posada | June | 17 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .217 | .299 | .383 | 7 | .300 | .836 |
| Hideki Matsui | June | 19 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | .213 | .362 | .426 | 8 | .350 | .993 |
| Brett Gardner | June | 18 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 | .346 | .469 | .423 | 7 | .409 | 1.209 |
| Cody Ransom | June | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Melky Cabrera | June | 20 | 75 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .293 | .354 | 7 | .274 | .820 |
| Jose Molina | June | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Xavier Nady | June | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Ramiro Pena | June | 9 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .308 | .250 | 1 | .263 | .988 |
| Angel Berroa | June | 7 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .100 | .182 | .200 | 0 | .172 | 1.071 |
| Alex Rodriguez | June | 19 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 0 | .143 | .299 | .270 | 7 | .270 | .773 |
| Francisco Cervelli | June | 5 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .294 | .294 | .353 | 2 | .279 | 1.014 |
| Team | June | 209 | 742 | 155 | 34 | 1 | 25 | 92 | 104 | 19 | 1 | .241 | .341 | .414 | 97 | .328 | .939 |
PA: Plate appearances
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted or above/below average/replacement)
wOBA:: Weighted on base average
Ratio: wOIBA for the month divided by season wOBA (greater than one means player has performed better this month than overall)
| Player | Split | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG | RSAR |
| A.J. Burnett | June | 4 | 23.0 | 22 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 3.91 | 2.74 | 4.55 | 4.69 | 3.99 | 4 |
| Alfredo Aceves | June | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 4.70 | 3.53 | 3.27 | 5 |
| Andy Pettitte | June | 4 | 23.0 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 5.09 | 4.70 | 4.33 | 5.21 | 4.75 | 1 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Brett Tomko | June | 6 | 10.0 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7.20 | 7.20 | 6.50 | 5.74 | 6.48 | -2 |
| Brian Bruney | June | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1 |
| CC Sabathia | June | 4 | 24.0 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4.88 | 4.50 | 5.20 | 3.81 | 4.50 | 2 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | June | 4 | 17.3 | 24 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 7.79 | 7.27 | 4.82 | 6.54 | 6.21 | -4 |
| Damaso Marte | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| David Robertson | June | 8 | 8.3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 3.24 | 2.16 | 3.20 | 2.46 | 2.61 | 2 |
| Edwar Ramirez | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | June | 4 | 24.0 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.12 | 2.89 | 3.59 | 5 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Jose Veras | June | 3 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 5.60 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 2 |
| Mariano Rivera | June | 7 | 7.0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6.43 | 5.14 | 2.06 | 2.67 | 3.29 | -1 |
| Mark Melancon | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Nick Swisher | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Phil Coke | June | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.98 | 1.16 | 1.38 | 5 |
| Phil Hughes | June | 6 | 10.7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 2.36 | 1.52 | 1.85 | 5 |
| Team | June | 70 | 174.0 | 151 | 83 | 75 | 22 | 68 | 162 | 4.29 | 3.88 | 4.27 | 3.89 | 4.02 | 26 |
FIP: FIP
CERA: Component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
AVG: Average of ERA,FIP and CERA
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher
| Player | Pos | G | INN | CH | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 18 | 151.0 | 26 | 24 | .921 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 18 | 143.0 | 52 | 42 | .807 | 41 | 1 | 1 |
| Swisher, Nick | 1B | 3 | 14.0 | 2 | 2 | 1.001 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | LF | 3 | 25.0 | 10 | 9 | .900 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Berroa, Angel | 3B | 4 | 21.0 | 6 | 5 | .832 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 12 | 87.7 | 22 | 20 | .908 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Posada, Jorge | 1B | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | 2B | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | RF | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ransom, Cody | 3B | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | 3B | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | SS | 6 | 32.0 | 10 | 8 | .800 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 15 | 120.0 | 32 | 28 | .876 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | RF | 11 | 45.0 | 6 | 5 | .836 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | LF | 1 | 8.0 | 4 | 3 | .751 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner, Brett | CF | 15 | 77.3 | 30 | 26 | .868 | 27 | -1 | -1 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 19 | 165.0 | 56 | 44 | .787 | 46 | -2 | -2 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 17 | 133.0 | 35 | 27 | .773 | 29 | -2 | -2 |
| Damon, Johnny | LF | 15 | 132.0 | 27 | 21 | .780 | 24 | -3 | -2 |
| Team | 158 | 1155 | 318 | 264 | .831 | 272 | -8 | -6 |
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Yankee Run Values Through Games of JUne 15, 2009
I'll use the off day to run through the Yankees' context-neutral run values through Sunday's game. First up, the position players:| Name | Team | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAR | ZR RS | UZR RS | Avg RS | RAR |
| Jeter, Derek | NYA | SS | 284 | .310 | .378 | .463 | 21 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYA | 1B | 271 | .284 | .387 | .620 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 24 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYA | LF | 266 | .284 | .358 | .530 | 18 | 0 | -4 | -2 | 16 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYA | RF | 242 | .247 | .392 | .521 | 14 | -4 | -3 | -4 | 10 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYA | C | 145 | .288 | .372 | .568 | 13 | -4 | 1 | -2 | 11 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYA | 2B | 273 | .298 | .330 | .492 | 11 | -4 | -3 | -3 | 8 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYA | 3B | 153 | .230 | .386 | .500 | 10 | -3 | -4 | -3 | 6 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYA | DH | 216 | .257 | .352 | .492 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYA | CF | 198 | .294 | .344 | .444 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYA | CF | 149 | .276 | .354 | .386 | 5 | -1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Molina, Jose | NYA | C | 49 | .273 | .333 | .386 | 1 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYA | RF | 29 | .286 | .310 | .429 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | NYA | C | 62 | .298 | .310 | .333 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cash, Kevin | NYA | C | 28 | .231 | .250 | .308 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYA | 3B | 77 | .254 | .303 | .310 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -3 |
| Berroa, Angel | NYA | 3B | 18 | .125 | .176 | .125 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -5 |
| Ransom, Cody | NYA | 3B | 53 | .180 | .226 | .320 | -3 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -5 |
| Total | 2513 | .276 | .355 | .482 | 120 | -13 | -14 | -14 | 106 |
BRAR Batting runs above replacement level (position and park-adjusted) using linear weights
ZR RS: Runs saved above average (using zone rating)
UZR RS: Runs saved above average (using Fan Graphs' UZR(ultimate zone rating)
Avg RS: Average of ZR RS and UZR RS
RAR: Runs above replacement level (BRAR + Avg RS)
And the pitchers:
| Name | Team | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | RSAR |
| Sabathia, CC | NYA | SP | 93 | 76 | 7 | 29 | 67 | 3.97 | 3.77 | 15 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | RP | 26.7 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 2.70 | 3.99 | 8 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | SP | 63.3 | 56 | 7 | 33 | 58 | 4.26 | 4.71 | 8 |
| Burnett, A.J. | NYA | SP | 80.7 | 76 | 12 | 41 | 74 | 4.69 | 5.01 | 6 |
| Rivera, Mariano | NYA | RP | 26.7 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 3.71 | 3.43 | 5 |
| Pettitte, Andy | NYA | SP | 79.7 | 94 | 10 | 33 | 50 | 4.86 | 4.82 | 5 |
| Robertson, David A | NYA | RP | 12 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 3.00 | 1.92 | 3 |
| Bruney, Brian A | NYA | RP | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 3.00 | 0.94 | 2 |
| Coke, Phil | NYA | RP | 26.3 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 4.78 | 5.56 | 2 |
| Swisher, Nick T | NYA | RP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4.17 | 1 |
| Hughes, Phil | NYA | SP | 40.3 | 41 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 5.36 | 5.13 | 0 |
| Melancon, Mark D | NYA | RP | 3.3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5.40 | 7.37 | 0 |
| Tomko, Brett | NYA | RP | 11.3 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5.56 | 5.99 | 0 |
| Ramirez, Edwar E | NYA | RP | 17.3 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 5.71 | 8.42 | -1 |
| Veras, Jose | NYA | RP | 25.7 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 5.96 | 6.40 | -2 |
| Albaladejo, Jonathan | NYA | RP | 21 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 6.86 | 6.55 | -4 |
| Marte, Damaso | NYA | RP | 5.3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15.19 | 9.92 | -6 |
| Claggett, Anthony | NYA | RP | 1.7 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 43.20 | 19.97 | -7 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | SP | 21.3 | 45 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 14.34 | 6.45 | -22 |
| Total | 565.6 | 565 | 85 | 250 | 471 | 5.16 | 5.16 | 13 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings (earned and unearned)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher
Combined:
| Name | RAR |
| Teixeira, Mark | 24 |
| Jeter, Derek | 22 |
| Damon, Johnny | 16 |
| Sabathia, CC | 15 |
| Posada, Jorge | 11 |
| Swisher, Nick | 10 |
| Cabrera, Melky | 9 |
| Matsui, Hideki | 9 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | 8 |
| Cano, Robinson | 8 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | 8 |
| Gardner, Brett | 7 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 6 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 6 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 5 |
| Pettitte, Andy | 5 |
| Robertson, David A | 3 |
| Bruney, Brian A | 2 |
| Coke, Phil | 2 |
| Swisher, Nick T | 1 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | 0 |
| Hughes, Phil | 0 |
| Melancon, Mark D | 0 |
| Molina, Jose | 0 |
| Tomko, Brett | 0 |
| Ramirez, Edwar E | -1 |
| Nady, Xavier | -1 |
| Cash, Kevin | -1 |
| Veras, Jose | -2 |
| Pena, Ramiro | -3 |
| Albaladejo, Jonathan | -4 |
| Ransom, Cody | -5 |
| Berroa, Angel | -5 |
| Marte, Damaso | -6 |
| Claggett, Anthony | -7 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | -22 |
| Total | 119 |
As a team the Yankees are 119 runs above replacement level, which should translate to 12 wins above replacement. I set my replacement level at around a 60 win team level, so after 63 games a replacement level team would be around 23-40. The Yankees are 36-27, so they've been around 13 wins better. That one win difference is largely due to Chien-Ming Wang and Anthony Claggett giving up 16 runs in one game. It counts as two losses on virtual paper, but it was only one.
Monday, June 1, 2009
May 2009 in Review
The Yankees entered May with a record of 12 and 10, two games out of first place in the AL East. They'd scored 128 runs and allowed 136 to that point.They proceeded to go 3-7 over the first 10 games of May, dropping their overall record to 15-17, and falling 6.5 games back of first place.
As you are likely aware, the Yankees finished May off with a bang by going 14-4 in their last 18 games. When I ran the last 16 games of May 1000 times through Diamond Mind the most likely record was 10-6. The Yankees actually went 12-4, which was the result in 12.1% of the simulations.
Overall, the Yankees went 17-11 in May, which is essentially a 98 win pace. How did they get there? Here are the team's performances on offense, defense and pitching.
| Player | Split | G | GS | PA | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | wOBA |
| Mark Teixeira | May | 28 | 28 | 128 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | .330 | .391 | .748 | 30 | .459 |
| Johnny Damon | May | 27 | 27 | 124 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 0 | .304 | .355 | .565 | 22 | .382 |
| Derek Jeter | May | 26 | 26 | 126 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 1 | .321 | .397 | .473 | 21 | .372 |
| Alex Rodriguez | May | 22 | 22 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 0 | .260 | .412 | .584 | 18 | .413 |
| Robinson Cano | May | 28 | 27 | 118 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | .272 | .297 | .465 | 14 | .312 |
| Hideki Matsui | May | 25 | 22 | 95 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | .241 | .295 | .483 | 13 | .323 |
| Melky Cabrera | May | 24 | 23 | 89 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 1 | .321 | .348 | .429 | 12 | .333 |
| Brett Gardner | May | 22 | 11 | 60 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | .327 | .417 | .538 | 11 | .413 |
| Nick Swisher | May | 27 | 25 | 103 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 0 | 0 | .150 | .311 | .275 | 9 | .278 |
| Jorge Posada | May | 6 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .524 | 1.000 | 7 | .607 |
| Ramiro Pena | May | 19 | 11 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | .231 | .250 | .308 | 3 | .243 |
| Jose Molina | May | 5 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .267 | .313 | .400 | 2 | .300 |
| Angel Berroa | May | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 |
| Team | May | 269 | 232 | 1021 | 258 | 57 | 5 | 47 | 145 | 93 | 159 | 17 | 5 | .283 | .354 | .511 | 160 | .363 |
PA: Plate appearances
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted or above/below average/replacement)
wOBA: Weighted on base average
Mark Teixeira had a nice little month, although not as good as Angel Berroa. Yes, the Yankees as a team slugged .511. That's pretty good.
| Player | Split | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | May | 6 | 45.7 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 2.76 | 2.56 | 2.94 | 2.46 | 2.65 | 15.4 |
| Alfredo Aceves | May | 9 | 19.7 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.01 | 6.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | May | 5 | 32.3 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 18 | 32 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 4.78 | 4.58 | 4.51 | 5.8 |
| Mariano Rivera | May | 10 | 11.0 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 4.65 | 3.75 | 3.62 | 4.1 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | May | 3 | 8.0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.83 | 4.64 | 3.57 | 3.2 |
| Andy Pettitte | May | 6 | 36.3 | 46 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 5.20 | 4.95 | 6.20 | 6.37 | 5.84 | 2.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | May | 5 | 22.3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 4.84 | 4.84 | 4.81 | 5.67 | 5.11 | 2.4 |
| Edwar Ramirez | May | 8 | 9.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 8.09 | 5.93 | 6.01 | 1.8 |
| David Robertson | May | 7 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 1.46 | 2.15 | 1.2 |
| Brett Tomko | May | 5 | 4.3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 7.58 | 6.09 | 5.94 | 0.8 |
| Brian Bruney | May | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.6 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | May | 9 | 10.0 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5.40 | 3.60 | 6.50 | 6.13 | 5.41 | 0.4 |
| Phil Coke | May | 11 | 11.0 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5.73 | 5.73 | 8.56 | 5.48 | 6.59 | 0.1 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | May | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | May | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| Mark Melancon | May | 2 | 0.3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 54.00 | 54.00 | 39.20 | 18.15 | 37.12 | -1.8 |
| Jose Veras | May | 13 | 9.7 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 8.38 | 8.38 | 8.79 | 8.75 | 8.64 | -2.8 |
| Phil Hughes | May | 6 | 28.7 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 6.91 | 6.59 | 5.96 | 6.53 | 6.36 | -3.5 |
| Team | May | 133 | 273.3 | 251 | 128 | 150 | 42 | 112 | 213 | 4.21 | 4.94 | 5.07 | 4.42 | 4.81 | 48.1 |
FIP: FIP
CERA: Component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
AVG: Average of ERA,FIP and CERA
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher
C.C. Sabathia earned his money in May. It's only eight innings, but Chien-Ming Wang is showing signs of life. As a team, the Yankee pitching wasn't really all that great in May, although they were better than they were in April.
| Dates | Player | Pos | G | INN | CH | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 27 | 243.3 | 48 | 44 | .008 | 41 | 3 | 3 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cabrera, Melky | CF | 17 | 125.0 | 37 | 36 | .032 | 33 | 3 | 2 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cabrera, Melky | RF | 9 | 53.0 | 21 | 20 | .413 | 18 | 2 | 2 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Damon, Johnny | LF | 26 | 228.3 | 51 | 46 | .023 | 45 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cano, Robinson | 2B | 28 | 244.3 | 80 | 65 | -.012 | 64 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Gardner, Brett | CF | 18 | 129.3 | 43 | 40 | .035 | 39 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cabrera, Melky | LF | 4 | 26.0 | 8 | 8 | .157 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Berroa, Angel | 3B | 7 | 17.0 | 8 | 7 | .255 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Pena, Ramiro | SS | 4 | 27.0 | 10 | 8 | -.154 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Pena, Ramiro | 3B | 10 | 64.0 | 22 | 17 | .004 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Swisher, Nick | 1B | 1 | 11.0 | 1 | 0 | -.167 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Pena, Ramiro | 2B | 2 | 10.0 | 4 | 2 | .500 | 3 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Jeter, Derek | SS | 25 | 227.3 | 63 | 51 | .003 | 52 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Swisher, Nick | RF | 24 | 201.3 | 43 | 36 | -.022 | 37 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 20 | 173.3 | 38 | 25 | .658 | 30 | -5 | -4 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Total | 1780.3 | 477 | 405 | .849 | 401 | 4 | 3 |
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average
The numbers agree with my eyes on Teixeira, he's been awesome defensively. As a team, the Yankees were above average defensively in May, with only Alex Rodriguez looking particularly bad. Of course, he's dealing with his hip issue which may mean his defense is going to be subpar all season. There's a lot of hype about the Yankees' errorless streak, but that's less important than the fact that they are showing better range so far.
It's tough to complain about how May went overall. Let's hope June is even better.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Yankee Home/Road Splits through games of May 29, 2009
I was wondering about who has benefitted the most from the New Yankee Stadium, so I pulled the splits to see what they say.First up, the hitters:
| Player | rPA | rwOBA | hPA | hwOBA | Ratio |
| Mark Teixeira | 105 | .324 | 104 | .465 | 1.44 |
| Jorge Posada | 56 | .353 | 40 | .482 | 1.37 |
| Melky Cabrera | 59 | .308 | 85 | .405 | 1.31 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 45 | .371 | 43 | .467 | 1.26 |
| Johnny Damon | 106 | .342 | 100 | .429 | 1.26 |
| Cody Ransom | 31 | .209 | 22 | .256 | 1.23 |
| Derek Jeter | 112 | .333 | 108 | .386 | 1.16 |
| Brett Gardner | 69 | .312 | 46 | .352 | 1.13 |
| Hideki Matsui | 80 | .354 | 84 | .333 | 0.94 |
| Jose Molina | 28 | .340 | 20 | .285 | 0.84 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 22 | .319 | 19 | .249 | 0.78 |
| Ramiro Pena | 30 | .312 | 39 | .232 | 0.74 |
| Robinson Cano | 111 | .414 | 98 | .303 | 0.73 |
| Nick Swisher | 102 | .434 | 86 | .270 | 0.62 |
| Kevin Cash | 13 | .422 | 15 | .076 | 0.18 |
| Angel Berroa | 8 | .225 | 4 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Xavier Nady | 29 | .306 | 0 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1006 | .349 | 913 | .365 | 1.05 |
rPA: Road plate appearances
rwOBA: Road weighted on base average
hPA: Home plate appearances
hwOBA: Home weighted on base average
Ratio: hwOBA divided by rwOBA (greater than one means better at NYS)
Bear in mind that the average player hits about 10% better at home in a neutral park. I thought Johnny Damon would head this list, but it's Mark Teixeira instead. I also thought Derek Jeter would have had a bigger split than he has.
And the pitchers:
And the pitchers:
| Player | hIP | hERA | hFIP | hCERA | hAVG | rIP | rERA | rFIP | rCERA | rAVG | Ratio |
| Brett Tomko | 3.3 | 2.70 | 5.00 | 1.65 | 3.12 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 16.20 | 14.97 | 13.39 | 4.30 |
| Jose Veras | 14.3 | 5.65 | 5.57 | 3.23 | 4.82 | 5.3 | 8.44 | 7.51 | 5.52 | 7.16 | 1.49 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 9.7 | 3.72 | 6.20 | 4.35 | 4.76 | 11.3 | 7.94 | 7.44 | 5.66 | 7.01 | 1.47 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 11.7 | 1.54 | 3.46 | 2.38 | 2.46 | 8.0 | 4.50 | 3.08 | 2.32 | 3.30 | 1.34 |
| Mariano Rivera | 13.0 | 2.08 | 3.74 | 3.55 | 3.12 | 7.7 | 3.52 | 4.37 | 3.39 | 3.76 | 1.21 |
| David Robertson | 4.3 | 2.08 | 2.51 | 2.05 | 2.21 | 2.0 | 4.50 | 1.70 | 1.24 | 2.48 | 1.12 |
| Phil Coke | 10.7 | 4.22 | 6.76 | 3.22 | 4.74 | 9.7 | 4.66 | 5.99 | 3.58 | 4.74 | 1.00 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 9.0 | 5.00 | 8.98 | 5.95 | 6.64 | 8.3 | 5.40 | 7.88 | 5.88 | 6.39 | 0.96 |
| Brian Bruney | 4.0 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 0.71 | 1.55 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 1.45 | 0.94 |
| CC Sabathia | 34.0 | 3.97 | 3.35 | 2.56 | 3.29 | 37.0 | 2.92 | 3.55 | 2.27 | 2.91 | 0.88 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 4.3 | 20.77 | 8.51 | 12.62 | 13.97 | 6.7 | 20.25 | 7.40 | 8.91 | 12.19 | 0.87 |
| A.J. Burnett | 32.0 | 4.78 | 5.79 | 4.23 | 4.93 | 32.0 | 4.78 | 4.48 | 3.17 | 4.15 | 0.84 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 17.0 | 5.82 | 4.91 | 4.35 | 5.03 | 28.3 | 2.86 | 4.96 | 3.90 | 3.91 | 0.78 |
| Phil Hughes | 14.0 | 5.79 | 7.91 | 6.80 | 6.83 | 15.7 | 4.60 | 4.03 | 2.71 | 3.78 | 0.55 |
| Andy Pettitte | 32.3 | 5.57 | 5.92 | 5.15 | 5.54 | 31.3 | 2.59 | 3.84 | 2.47 | 2.96 | 0.53 |
| Damaso Marte | 2.3 | 27.00 | 16.49 | 16.55 | 20.01 | 3.0 | 6.00 | 5.87 | 3.30 | 5.05 | 0.25 |
| Mark Melancon | 0.3 | 54.00 | 39.20 | 14.43 | 35.88 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.87 | 1.58 | 0.04 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | 1.7 | 43.20 | 20.00 | 22.74 | 28.65 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 218 | 5.61 | 4.41 | 5.13 | 5.05 | 215 | 4.51 | 4.67 | 3.38 | 4.19 | 0.83 |
hIP: Home innings pitched
hERA: Home ERA
hFIP: Home FIP
hCERA: Home component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
hAVG: Home average of ERA,FIP and CERA
rIP: Home innings pitched
rERA: Home ERA
rFIP: Home FIP
rCERA: Home component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
rAVG: Home average of ERA,FIP and CERA
Ratio: rAVG divided by hAVG (greater than one means better at NYS)
Looking at the starting pitchers, Andy Pettitte's been hurt the most by the new stadium so far, but all five starters have been better on the road. That's not exactly a newsflash if you've watched the games.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Yankee WAR Through Games of May 20
| Last | First | Tm | Lg | Pos | RAR | WAR |
| Damon | Johnny | NYA | AL | LF | 16.6 | 1.7 |
| Sabathia | CC | NYA | AL | SP | 16.4 | 1.6 |
| Cano | Robinson | NYA | AL | 2B | 11.8 | 1.2 |
| Cabrera | Melky | NYA | AL | CF | 9.5 | 0.9 |
| Pettitte | Andy | NYA | AL | SP | 8.8 | 0.9 |
| Jeter | Derek | NYA | AL | SS | 8.6 | 0.9 |
| Teixeira | Mark | NYA | AL | 1B | 7.8 | 0.8 |
| Posada | Jorge | NYA | AL | C | 7.8 | 0.8 |
| Swisher | Nick T | NYA | AL | RF | 7.4 | 0.7 |
| Chamberlain | Joba L | NYA | AL | SP | 7.4 | 0.7 |
| Burnett | A.J. | NYA | AL | SP | 6.0 | 0.6 |
| Rivera | Mariano | NYA | AL | RP | 5.9 | 0.6 |
| Aceves | Alfredo | NYA | AL | RP | 4.9 | 0.5 |
| Rodriguez | Alex | NYA | AL | 3B | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| Bruney | Brian A | NYA | AL | RP | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| Matsui | Hideki | NYA | AL | DH | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Cervelli | Francisco | NYA | AL | C | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| Gardner | Brett | NYA | AL | CF | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Tomko | Brett | NYA | AL | RP | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Swisher | Nick T | NYA | AL | RP | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Ramirez | Edwar E | NYA | AL | RP | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Albaladejo | Jonathan | NYA | AL | RP | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Melancon | Mark D | NYA | AL | RP | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Robertson | David A | NYA | AL | RP | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Coke | Phil | NYA | AL | RP | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Nady | Xavier | NYA | AL | RF | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| Pena | Ramiro | NYA | AL | 3B | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| Veras | Jose | NYA | AL | RP | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| Cash | Kevin | NYA | AL | C | -2.2 | -0.2 |
| Molina | Jose | NYA | AL | C | -2.3 | -0.2 |
| Hughes | Phil | NYA | AL | SP | -3.4 | -0.3 |
| Ransom | Cody | NYA | AL | 3B | -3.7 | -0.4 |
| Berroa | Angel | NYA | AL | 3B | -4.7 | -0.5 |
| Marte | Damaso | NYA | AL | RP | -5.4 | -0.5 |
| Claggett | Anthony | NYA | AL | RP | -6.9 | -0.7 |
| Wang | Chien-Ming | NYA | AL | SP | -19.0 | -1.9 |
RAR: Runs above replacement, which consists of offensive runs above replacement level at primary position using linear weights and defensive runs saved above average using zone rating for non-catchers, and using a catcher defense system that looks at SB, CS, errors, WP + PB for postion players. For pitchers, it's simply runs saved compared to a replacement level pitcher over the player's actual playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR divided by 10)
Monday, May 18, 2009
Can The 2009 Yankee Bullpen Get Better?
While I'm enjoying the walkoff wins and five game winning streak as much as anyone, it doesn't mask the fact that the Yankee bullpen outside of Mo is not exactly confidence-inspiring. I want to do a more detailed post in the next few days looking at revised projections for the relievers using their YTD performances in the majors and minors and what they were projected to do coming into the season, but I'm pressed for time this morning so I'm going to just post this simple chart.| Name | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAR |
| Brian Bruney | 8.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 3.38 | 0.97 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.8 |
| Mariano Rivera | 16.3 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 2.76 | 3.90 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 8.3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2.16 | 3.70 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| David Robertson | 4.7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 3.86 | 2.80 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Jose Veras | 16.0 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 6.75 | 5.66 | -4.2 | -2.6 | -0.7 |
| Mark Melancon | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5.40 | 7.42 | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.8 |
| Brett Tomko | 2.3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.86 | 8.80 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
| Phil Coke | 15.7 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 4.60 | 6.10 | -0.3 | 1.2 | -1.4 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 18.7 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 4.82 | 6.17 | -0.9 | 1.0 | -1.8 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | 1.7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 43.20 | 20.02 | -7.2 | -7.0 | -2.7 |
| Damaso Marte | 5.3 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15.19 | 10.54 | -6.4 | -5.9 | -3.1 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 16.7 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 4.86 | 7.72 | -0.9 | 0.8 | -4.5 |
| Total | 117 | 116 | 78 | 71 | 25 | 59 | 110 | 5.46 | 5.81 | -13.8 | -2.4 | -6.9 |
Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
FRSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher if a pitcher's ERA was equal to their FIP
Standard caveats about sample sizes apply, which is why I need to do a more detailed post. But for now, this tells us that if you look at FIP compared to ERA, the Yankee bullpen has actually been WORSE than their ERAs show.
Yankee relievers are allowing 5% of the batters they face to homer compared to the league average of 3% (71% worse than league average). That's been their single biggest problem, although that could have something to do with the new Stadium. Of course, we won't know that for sure until they've played more than 16 games there. They're walking 11% of the batters they face compared to the league average of 9% (22% worse than league average). On the plus side, they are striking out 21% of the batters they face compared to the league average of 17% (21% better than league average).
They should be better than this, and they probably will be, but we'll look at where the improvements may come from when I can get to it, aside from the obvious insert Bruney/remove Tomko move.
So how about that win streak?
Friday, May 1, 2009
April Review
April is the cruelest month. Well, maybe not exactly cruel in the case of the Yankees. But, the Bombers haven’t exactly hit the ground running in April the last few years. The Yankees were 14-15 in April of 2008; 9-14 in 2007; and 13-10 in 2006.
A record of 12-10, while not quite spectacular, is fairly good all things considered.
Here’s a quick glance at the Yankee’s month of April in 2009:
The Good
• Robinson Cano - Cano’s line of .366/.400/.581 is a bit of a surprise considering that one year earlier he sported a line of .151/.211/.236 and .270/.320/.337 in April of 2007. The Yankee’s second baseman has, with some exceptions, traditionally been a bit of a slow starter offensively. We heard reports of a hard-working Cano in the off-season. It appears that hard work has paid off.
• Nick Swisher - When Xavier Nady went down with an injury, Swisher got his chance to shine, as well as send Ozzie Guillen a message. Hitting .312/.430/.714, and sporting a 192 OPS+, the message is loud and clear. While you can expect Swisher to come back to earth as the season progresses, his contributions in April were certainly huge with Alex Rodriguez on the DL and Mark Teixeira struggling.
• Andy Pettitte - The off-season drama that was the “will they or won’t they resign Andy” took a back seat to the Teixeira and Sabathia headlines. However, through the first month of the season, the Pettitte signing has turned out to have had the most impact. The veteran left hander is 2-1 with a 161 ERA+ so far this season. Not bad from your #5 starter.
• Hideki Matsui - After a somewhat slow start, Matsui has settled into a nice offensive groove. With a few crappy games at the plate to begin the season, all we heard was that his balky surgically repaired knee was shot and he’d never be the same. Nineteen games worth of a .903 OPS may suggest otherwise.
The Bad
• Brian Bruney - The guy was rolling. Sporting a .111 BAA with 12 strikeouts through 9 innings, Bruney was making his case as the setup man to Mariano Rivera. But a strained flexor muscle placed him on the DL. The good news is that it looks like he will be able to return to the team soon.
• Mark Teixeira - OK, so perhaps Mark does not deserve to grace Lee Van Cleef’s title category. However, he certainly hasn’t excelled in his first month in pinstripes. He barely escaped a sub .200 AVG for the month of April with a 1-4 night on April 30th, if that means anything to anyone. Personally, I am still concerned about the wrist injury he suffered early in the month; although there hasn’t been any word from the team that he is feeling any discomfort. Bottom line: Teixeira is a great hitter. If he’s healthy going forward, his production will pick up eventually. And if that happens to coincide with A-Rod’s return, OMGWTFBBQ!
• Xavier Nady - The loss of Xavier Nady to a right elbow injury was a hit on the Yankees’ depth. However, Nady will not need surgery and could return to the team by the end of May.
The Ugly
• The New Yankee Stadium Home Opener - Yeah, it might be a bit superficial, but a Yankee win in the first game at the new Yankee Stadium would have been nice. The game was within reach until an Orioles 9-run 7th inning. There’s your ugly.
• Chien-Ming Wang - Yeah, he’s been pretty bad. A 34.50 ERA through 3 starts speaks for itself. It’s tough to get a read on exactly what his major malfunction really is. After not pitching at all last year after his injury on June 15th, it is possible he’s just not fully recovered. Or perhaps Wang simply needs to iron out his mechanics. Whatever the case may be, he continues to work on getting back to form in extended spring training games, but it is unclear as to his exact return date.
• Sat. 04/18: CLE 22, NYY 4 - A 14-run second inning for the Indians pretty much took the Yankees out of the game early. But the worst part was the lack of a Swisher relief appearance.
• Sox Sweep Yankees - It was a brutal weekend featuring a Mo blown save, 25 Boston runs, and a steal of home by Jacoby Ellsbury. Better it happen in April than in September.
There are plenty of other goods that could be listed (Hughes call up and great start, Joba’s recent performance, Burnett’s first few starts, Melancon’s call up, Melky’s revival?, Phil Coke’s pitching), as well as a number of bads (Sabathia’s slow start, Burnett’s meltdown in Boston, Marte’s 15.19 ERA, Gardner’s inability to hit).
SG will hopefully post the log5 numbers for April, which will likely show the Yankees not too far off pace. As of today, PECOTA projects the Yankees with a better than 45% chance to take the AL East (highest % of any team) and a 74.21% chance to make the playoffs.
Bring on May!
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The Afterthought
Coming into 2009, with newly signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett fronting a rotation that was also returning a supposedly healthy Chien-Ming Wang and with the talented Joba Chamberlain penciled in as a starter exclusively, it was pretty easy to ignore Andy Pettitte. In fact, a lot of people didn’t even want him back since he’d be blocking Phil Hughes and since he had an ERA of 6.23 over his last 11 games in 2008. After a long and drawn-out process where the Yankees offered him a contract and then pulled it and then presented a modified deal that was incentive-laden, Pettitte was brought back as the fifth starter.
Pitcher RSAR(Runs saved above replacement)
Andy Pettitte* : 8.4
A.J. Burnett : 6.1
C.C. Sabathia* : 4.7
Mariano Rivera : 4.1
Brian Bruney : 2.5
Jonathan Albaladejo : 2.5
David Robertson : 1.4
Nick Swisher* : 0.7
Joba Chamberlain : -1.1
Edwar Ramirez : -1.5
Jose Veras : -1.8
Phil Coke* : -3.5
Damaso Marte* : -5.0
Anthony Claggett : -7.2
Chien-Ming Wang : -18.9
Pettitte has been the best pitcher on the Yankees to this point in the season. While we shouldn’t expect it to continue, he’s been a very important piece, especially given Wang’s struggles. The Yankees have won all three of his starts, essentially canceling out Wang’s horrific three starts. Pettitte’s gone at least seven innings in each game as well, giving the bullpen a much needed rest.
I’m glad to see that he still has something left in the tank, and hopefully he’ll continue to pitch reasonably well going forward. I just thought he deserved a little recognition today.
Friday, April 17, 2009
2009 Yankee Run Values through Games of April 16
Position Players| Overall AL Rank | Name | Team | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAR | dRSAA | pRSAR | tRAR |
| 6 | Swisher, Nick | NYA | 1B | 37 | .406 | .486 | 1.000 | 7.8 | -1.3 | 0.5 | 7.0 |
| 10 | Cano, Robinson | NYA | 2B | 43 | .421 | .488 | .632 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 5.4 | |
| 34 | Posada, Jorge | NYA | C | 35 | .267 | .343 | .600 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 3.0 | |
| 43 | Jeter, Derek | NYA | SS | 45 | .293 | .356 | .463 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 4.5 | |
| 92 | Pena, Ramiro | NYA | SS | 9 | .143 | .333 | .143 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | |
| 100 | Nady, Xavier | NYA | RF | 29 | .286 | .310 | .429 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | |
| 109 | Cabrera, Melky | NYA | RF | 11 | .300 | .364 | .300 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | |
| 117 | Gardner, Brett | NYA | CF | 38 | .265 | .306 | .353 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -1.3 | |
| 120 | Damon, Johnny | NYA | LF | 36 | .250 | .306 | .344 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | |
| 128 | Molina, Jose | NYA | C | 16 | .200 | .250 | .200 | -1.0 | 0.8 | -0.2 | |
| 131 | Matsui, Hideki | NYA | DH | 32 | .154 | .313 | .308 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | |
| 166 | Teixeira, Mark | NYA | 1B | 31 | .160 | .290 | .360 | -1.5 | 0.6 | -0.9 | |
| 188 | Ransom, Cody | NYA | 3B | 32 | .100 | .156 | .167 | -4.3 | -0.9 | -5.2 |
Pitchers
| Overall AL Rank | Name | Team | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | pRSAR | tRAR |
| 11 | Pettitte, Andy | NYA | 14.3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2.51 | 3.35 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 16 | Sabathia, CC | NYA | 17.7 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 3.57 | 4.15 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| 17 | Burnett, A.J. | NYA | 13.3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 2.70 | 2.59 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 55 | Rivera, Mariano | NYA | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 70 | Bruney, Brian A | NYA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3.60 | 0.62 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 75 | Albaladejo, Jonathan | NYA | 6.3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4.26 | 7.84 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 83 | Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4.50 | 5.42 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 97 | Swisher, Nick | NYA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4.20 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 148 | Veras, Jose | NYA | 3.3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13.50 | 4.32 | -2.7 | -2.7 |
| 168 | Coke, Phil | NYA | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 15.75 | 6.42 | -4.2 | -4.2 |
| 171 | Marte, Damaso | NYA | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27.00 | 19.42 | -4.6 | -4.6 |
| 177 | Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | 4.7 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 28.93 | 10.27 | -11.8 | -11.8 |
Combined
| Name | tRAR |
| Swisher, Nick | 7.0 |
| Pettitte, Andy | 5.8 |
| Cano, Robinson | 5.4 |
| Sabathia, CC | 5.2 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 5.1 |
| Jeter, Derek | 4.5 |
| Posada, Jorge | 3.0 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 2.1 |
| Bruney, Brian A | 1.4 |
| Albaladejo, Jonathan | 1.3 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | 1.1 |
| Damon, Johnny | 1.0 |
| Nady, Xavier | 0.7 |
| Molina, Jose | -0.2 |
| Pena, Ramiro | -0.4 |
| Cabrera, Melky | -0.5 |
| Matsui, Hideki | -0.5 |
| Teixeira, Mark | -0.9 |
| Gardner, Brett | -1.3 |
| Veras, Jose | -2.7 |
| Coke, Phil | -4.2 |
| Marte, Damaso | -4.6 |
| Ransom, Cody | -5.2 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | -11.8 |
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
dRSAA: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating (UZR Is not updated daily so I am ignoring it for this)
pRSAR: Pitching runs saved above replacement level
tRAR: Total runs above replacement (all of the above added together)
It's early, so this is not saying anything about the players's ability, so don't be a jackass and take it that way and chide me for a 'stupid' post. All it shows is what the players have contributed to this point in the season after 10 games using the formulas I'm using. Special congratulations go out to Cody Ransom and Chien-Ming Wang, for being the least valuable position player and pitcher in the AL to this point in the season.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Overmanaging
After dropping the first two games of the season, the Yankees had won three straight and headed into the eighth inning of their sixth game of the season with a 4-3 lead, six outs away from moving to 4-2 on the season. Damaso Marte got the first two outs in the eighth, then was pulled when the Royals pinch hit with righty Billy Butler for lefty Mike Jacobs. Marte is left-handed and is better against lefties obviously (.200/.297/.289 vs LHB career, compared to .238/.326/.386 vs RHB). With a slim lead, I didn’t have a huge problem with Joe Girardi going to the pen in that spot. Unfortunately, Jose Veras did what he does too often for my taste, failing to throw strikes and walking Butler on five pitches.
Brayan Pena was due up next. He’s a 27 year old switch-hitting catcher who’s only batted 136 times over five seasons, and has hit a less than inspiring .227/.250/.318 in his career. Although he’s a switch-hitter, he’s shown a platoon split in his career of .214/.224/.286 against. RHP compared to 250/.294/.375 against LHP. While the sample size is small, it is data. However, Girardi went to the pen again, and brought in Phil Coke to face Pena, with Alberto Callaspo (career 254/.311/.318 against RHP compared to .295/.338/.357 vs LHP) on deck and with John Buck ( career .230/.285/.390 against RHP compared to .249/.333/.429 against LHP.
In his quest to get the platoon advantage with Veras against Butler then removing Veras after the walk, Girardi did the opposite of what he wanted to do and gave the Royals an advantage that they capitalized on, getting three straight hits and scoring three runs, turning a 4-3 deficit into a 6-4 win.
You have Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. The only reason he shouldn’t have been brought in after Butler walked was if there is concern about his health. Maybe that was the case, I don’t know, but if it wasn’t, it was inexcusable and it probably cost the Yankees the game.
I’m not going to get too worked up about it, because part of the early season necessitates finding roles for people and assessing who can be used when. Along the way, there will be tough losses like yesterday, but hopefully it will be beneficial in the long run.
It’s amazing how different 4-2 would feel than 3-3 though, huh.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Pitching Staff Wrapup
The Yankees re-made their starting rotation by bringing in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. With Chien-Ming Wang back from his injury, Andy Pettitte back as the #4 starter instead of the #2 starter and Joba Chamberlain hopefully spending a full season in the rotation and giving them 30-40 more innings, they should be pretty clearly improved over last year, but let's look at what the projections think. Defense is already incorporated in these projections so I will not double-count it by adding it in again.Scenario 1: Optimistic
Because of the volatility of projecting pitchers in both health and effectiveness, I don't like doing just one projection for the pitching staff. So I'm going to present three different scenarios. First scenario will be what happens if everything goes to plan.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | cairo | chone | hbt | marcel | ||||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 220 | 95 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 91 | 3.41 | 3.33 | 86 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 84 | 3.07 | 3.13 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 200 | 100 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 93 | 3.88 | 3.76 | 92 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 97 | 3.99 | 3.72 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 200 | 97 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 107 | 4.47 | 3.97 | 93 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 90 | 3.83 | 3.89 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 200 | 109 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 104 | 4.31 | 3.93 | 102 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 106 | 4.38 | 3.99 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 150 | 62 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 61 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 58 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 56 | 3.07 | 3.14 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 70 | 37 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 36 | 4.28 | 4.21 | 36 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 38 | 4.61 | 4.19 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 20 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 24 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 21 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 25 | 3.09 | 3.08 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 30 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 28 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 27 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 28 | 3.92 | 3.62 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 29 | 4.95 | 4.84 | 25 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 23 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 22 | 3.56 | 4.10 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 26 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 24 | 4.05 | 3.95 | 23 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.22 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.72 | 3.77 | 20 | 3.38 | 3.43 | 24 | 3.92 | 3.69 | 26 | 4.42 | 4.22 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.62 | 4.10 | 16 | 3.38 | 3.73 | 21 | 4.32 | 5.33 | 15 | 3.13 | 3.64 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 25 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 23 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 19 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 19 | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 8 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 10 | 4.08 | 4.11 | 10 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 11 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 12 | 4.79 | 3.96 | 12 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 10 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 10 | 4.32 | 4.32 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 692 | 4.01 | 3.75 | 674 | 3.89 | 3.63 | 645 | 3.73 | 3.76 | 653 | 3.76 | 3.68 |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | pecota | zips | Average | ||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 220 | 92 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 81 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 88 | 3.29 | 3.28 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 200 | 93 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 95 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 95 | 3.93 | 3.71 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 200 | 109 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 94 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 98 | 4.11 | 3.98 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 200 | 107 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 106 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 106 | 4.37 | 3.98 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 150 | 57 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 68 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 60 | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 70 | 40 | 4.74 | 4.27 | 36 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 37 | 4.45 | 4.10 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 21 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 19 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 22 | 2.59 | 2.61 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 27 | 3.76 | 3.84 | 26 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 28 | 3.81 | 3.70 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 27 | 4.47 | 4.69 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.90 | 26 | 4.25 | 4.48 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 26 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 21 | 3.51 | 3.69 | 23 | 3.86 | 3.58 | 23 | 3.80 | 3.71 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 19 | 3.97 | 4.21 | 19 | 3.90 | 4.53 | 19 | 3.88 | 4.25 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 23 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 22 | 4.60 | 4.51 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 9 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 10 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 10 | 3.98 | 3.69 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 11 | 4.34 | 4.09 | 12 | 5.02 | 4.82 | 11 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 678 | 3.86 | 3.75 | 666 | 3.86 | 3.76 | 668 | 3.85 | 3.72 |
With this pitching staff, the Yankees would project to win 99 games on paper, although we have to adjust that downward for strength of AL East, so figure around 97.
Scenario 2: More Realistic
| Pitcher | Role | IP | cairo | chone | hbt | marcel | ||||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 86 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 82 | 3.41 | 3.33 | 78 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 77 | 3.07 | 3.13 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 180 | 90 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 84 | 3.88 | 3.76 | 83 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 88 | 3.99 | 3.72 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 175 | 85 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 93 | 4.47 | 3.97 | 81 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 79 | 3.83 | 3.89 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 95 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 91 | 4.31 | 3.93 | 90 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 93 | 4.38 | 3.99 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 125 | 52 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 51 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 48 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 47 | 3.07 | 3.14 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 100 | 54 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 51 | 4.28 | 4.21 | 51 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 55 | 4.61 | 4.19 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 30 | 4.84 | 4.48 | 27 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.68 | 30 | 5.01 | 4.35 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 35 | 20 | 4.83 | 4.37 | 21 | 4.95 | 4.96 | 21 | 4.95 | 4.87 | 16 | 3.86 | 4.34 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 20 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 24 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 21 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 25 | 3.09 | 3.08 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 30 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 28 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 27 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 28 | 3.92 | 3.62 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 29 | 4.95 | 4.84 | 25 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 23 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 22 | 3.56 | 4.10 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 26 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 24 | 4.05 | 3.95 | 23 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.22 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.72 | 3.77 | 20 | 3.38 | 3.43 | 24 | 3.92 | 3.69 | 26 | 4.42 | 4.22 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.62 | 4.10 | 16 | 3.38 | 3.73 | 21 | 4.32 | 5.33 | 15 | 3.13 | 3.64 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 25 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 23 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 19 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 19 | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 8 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 10 | 4.08 | 4.11 | 10 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 11 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 12 | 4.79 | 3.96 | 12 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 10 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 10 | 4.32 | 4.32 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 703 | 4.07 | 3.80 | 683 | 3.94 | 3.70 | 658 | 3.81 | 3.84 | 664 | 3.83 | 3.74 |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | pecota | zips | Average | ||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 83 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 74 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 80 | 3.29 | 3.28 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 180 | 84 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 86 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 86 | 3.93 | 3.71 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 175 | 95 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 82 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 86 | 4.11 | 3.98 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 94 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 93 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 93 | 4.37 | 3.98 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 125 | 47 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 57 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 50 | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 100 | 58 | 4.74 | 4.27 | 51 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 53 | 4.45 | 4.10 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 28 | 4.71 | 4.52 | 27 | 4.57 | 4.39 | 28 | 4.70 | 4.47 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 35 | 21 | 5.03 | 4.84 | 22 | 5.19 | 5.18 | 20 | 4.80 | 4.75 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 21 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 19 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 22 | 2.59 | 2.61 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 27 | 3.76 | 3.84 | 26 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 28 | 3.81 | 3.70 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 27 | 4.47 | 4.69 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.90 | 26 | 4.25 | 4.48 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 26 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 21 | 3.51 | 3.69 | 23 | 3.86 | 3.58 | 23 | 3.80 | 3.71 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 19 | 3.97 | 4.21 | 19 | 3.90 | 4.53 | 19 | 3.88 | 4.25 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 23 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 22 | 4.60 | 4.51 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 9 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 10 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 10 | 3.98 | 3.69 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 11 | 4.34 | 4.09 | 12 | 5.02 | 4.82 | 11 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 690 | 3.93 | 3.82 | 678 | 3.92 | 3.82 | 679 | 3.92 | 3.79 |
In this scenario, I removed innings from the starting five, but kept the bullpen the same. Removing those innings cost the Yankees a win, thanks to reasonably good projections for Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves. That may or may not be a faulty assumption
Scenario 3: Disaster (or when Kei Igawa strikes)
Let's say Sabathia's workload catches up to him and he misses some time. Let's also say A.J. Burnett misses a chunk of the season too, and let's under-estimate the Wang/Pettitte/Chamberlain innings>
| Pitcher | Role | IP | cairo | chone | hbt | marcel | ||||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 175 | 75 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 72 | 3.41 | 3.33 | 68 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 67 | 3.07 | 3.13 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 150 | 75 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 70 | 3.88 | 3.76 | 69 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 73 | 3.99 | 3.72 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 150 | 73 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 80 | 4.47 | 3.97 | 70 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 67 | 3.83 | 3.89 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 150 | 82 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 78 | 4.31 | 3.93 | 77 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 80 | 4.38 | 3.99 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 100 | 41 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 41 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 38 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 38 | 3.07 | 3.14 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 50 | 27 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 26 | 4.28 | 4.21 | 26 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 27 | 4.61 | 4.19 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 30 | 4.84 | 4.48 | 27 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.68 | 30 | 5.01 | 4.35 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 50 | 29 | 4.83 | 4.37 | 30 | 4.95 | 4.96 | 30 | 4.95 | 4.87 | 23 | 3.86 | 4.34 |
| Kei Igawa | SP9 | 165 | 116 | 5.95 | 5.01 | 94 | 4.77 | 4.82 | 111 | 5.59 | 5.61 | 98 | 5.08 | 4.89 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 20 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 24 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 21 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 25 | 3.09 | 3.08 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 30 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 28 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 27 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 28 | 3.92 | 3.62 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 29 | 4.95 | 4.84 | 25 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 23 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 22 | 3.56 | 4.10 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 26 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 24 | 4.05 | 3.95 | 23 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.22 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 17 | 2.95 | 3.44 | 16 | 2.68 | 3.08 | 19 | 3.11 | 3.70 | 21 | 3.51 | 3.92 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 27 | 5.82 | 4.33 | 20 | 4.25 | 4.02 | 26 | 5.44 | 5.33 | 19 | 3.94 | 3.89 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 25 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 23 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 19 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 19 | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 8 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 10 | 4.08 | 4.11 | 10 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 11 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 12 | 4.79 | 3.96 | 12 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 10 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 10 | 4.32 | 4.32 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 740 | 4.30 | 3.95 | 699 | 4.03 | 3.82 | 694 | 4.02 | 4.05 | 682 | 3.95 | 3.87 |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | pecota | zips | Average | ||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 175 | 73 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 64 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 70 | 3.29 | 3.28 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 150 | 70 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 71 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 71 | 3.93 | 3.71 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 150 | 81 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 71 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 74 | 4.11 | 3.98 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 150 | 80 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 80 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 79 | 4.37 | 3.98 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 100 | 38 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 45 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 40 | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 50 | 29 | 4.74 | 4.27 | 26 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 27 | 4.45 | 4.10 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 28 | 4.71 | 4.52 | 27 | 4.57 | 4.39 | 28 | 4.70 | 4.47 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 50 | 30 | 5.03 | 4.84 | 31 | 5.19 | 5.18 | 29 | 4.80 | 4.75 |
| Kei Igawa | SP9 | 165 | 105 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 117 | 5.91 | 5.71 | 107 | 5.43 | 5.17 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 21 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 19 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 22 | 2.59 | 2.61 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 27 | 3.76 | 3.84 | 26 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 28 | 3.81 | 3.70 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 27 | 4.47 | 4.69 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.90 | 26 | 4.25 | 4.48 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 26 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 17 | 2.79 | 3.38 | 18 | 3.06 | 3.22 | 18 | 3.02 | 3.43 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 24 | 4.99 | 4.43 | 24 | 4.91 | 4.72 | 23 | 4.89 | 4.44 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 23 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 22 | 4.60 | 4.51 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 9 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 10 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 10 | 3.98 | 3.69 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 11 | 4.34 | 4.09 | 12 | 5.02 | 4.82 | 11 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 715 | 4.09 | 3.96 | 718 | 4.16 | 4.05 | 708 | 4.09 | 3.95 |
That costs the Yankees about four wins.
Conclusion
So assuming the Yankees will score 851 runs, here's what we're looking at:
Scenario 1: 851 RS/666 RA, 99-63 Pythagenpat W-L, 97-65 AL East adjusted.
Scenario 2: 851 RS/678 RA, 98-64 Pythagenpat W-L, 96-66 AL East adjusted.
Scenario 3: 851 RS/708 RA, 95-67 Pythagenpat W-L, 93-69 AL East adjusted.
It's possible more could go wrong than that on both offense and defense, but it's Opening Day! Let's be a little optimistic.
Since the possiblities as far as playing time are basically limitless, I've uploaded my projection spreadsheet for anyone who wants to play around with different combinations. The only fields that you have to edit are highlighted in light green. You have to type in the player's name as First Name "space" Last Name, then fill in their plate appearances/innings and then the rest of the sheet should automatically populate. Team totals should add up to around 6500 PA on offense, 1440 innings for pitching.
How awesome is Opening Day?
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Jonathan Albaladejo, Phil Coke and Edwar Ramirez
Here’s a quick look at three of the Opening Day bullpen members, Jonathan Albaladejo, Phil Coke and Edwar Ramirez.
| Jonathan Albaladejo | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 59 | 64 | 33 | 31 | 7 | 23 | 45 | 4.73 | 4.39 | -2 | 4 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 32 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 2 | 5 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 58 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 23 | 40 | 4.36 | 4.57 | 1 | 7 |
| 2008 zips projection | 75 | 79 | 46 | 42 | 15 | 25 | 56 | 5.04 | 5.31 | -5 | 3 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 29 | 27 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 4.34 | 4.48 | 0 | 3 |
| 2008 average projection | 51 | 51 | 27 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 37 | 4.48 | 4.52 | 0 | 5 |
| 2008 actual totals | 14 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 3.94 | 3.56 | 1 | 2 |
| difference | -37 | 184% | 81% | 128% | -0.54 | -0.96 | 1 | -3 |
Albaladejo came to the Yankees in a trade for Tyler Clippard. He had pretty good scouting reports but he came with concerns about his conditioning and health. His projections were pretty decent, expecting him to pitch around 51 innings of average relief. Albaladejo actually ended up pitching better than that on a rate basis, but an injury cost him the bulk of the season.
| phil coke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 92 | 116 | 70 | 65 | 14 | 52 | 53 | 6.36 | 5.72 | -19.0 | -9.8 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 105 | 121 | 61 | 61 | 11 | 45 | 57 | 5.23 | 4.76 | -9 | 2 |
| 2008 actual totals | 149 | 148 | 69 | 65 | 12 | 65 | 121 | 3.93 | 3.93 | 9.4 | 24.2 |
It's a testament to Phil Coke's meteoric rise in 2008 that no system felt he was worth projecting except CHONE and CAIRO. Neither one expected much from Coke, who had not risen above A ball yet and was entering his age 25 season. His 2007 was actually pretty good (3.09 ERA in 16 starts, 76 K, 37 BB and 4 HRs in 99 IP, but it came at age 24 in high A.
Something clicked for Coke in 2008. In the words of Mark Newman:
Phil Coke was a "fringy prospect" until this season, says Mark Newman, the Yankees vice president of baseball operations. But Coke was the first name Newman uttered in a recent conversation about Yankee minor-leaguers who made significant strides this season. "Now we think he's a very good prospect," Newman said. "He's got his velocity to 94 (mph) and his slider has more depth and a late break."
Coke blew away his projections, putting up a very solid MLE.
| edwar ramirez | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 53 | 46 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 23 | 64 | 3.57 | 3.31 | 6 | 11 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 35 | 37 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 31 | 5.14 | 4.57 | -3 | 1 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 61 | 48 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 31 | 76 | 3.61 | 3.65 | 6 | 12 |
| 2008 zips projection | 64 | 64 | 37 | 34 | 11 | 27 | 65 | 4.78 | 4.67 | -2 | 4 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 33 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 3.55 | 3.72 | 4 | 7 |
| 2008 average projection | 49 | 45 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 22 | 54 | 4.13 | 3.98 | 2 | 7 |
| 2008 actual totals | 55 | 44 | 25 | 24 | 7 | 24 | 63 | 3.91 | 3.87 | 4 | 9 |
| difference | 6 | 101% | 101% | 104% | -0.22 | -0.11 | 2 | 2 |
Edwar Ramirez's minor league numbers are eye-popping. He's struck out 376 batters in 277 minor league innings. However, the fact that he had done it with a very good changeup instead of a 95 mph fastball was a cause for reasonable doubt about how effective he'd actually be in the majors. He struggled in his brief major league stint in 2007, although that may have been at least partially due to not being used appropriately by the former manager, I forget his name right now.
Projection systems generally don't care about how a player accrues his stats, they just take them and convert them to a projection. So in Edwar's case, he projected pretty well all around, a bit above average. Ramirez had a few bad outings, but was generally good. He gave up 11 of the 24 earned runs he allowed all season over 3 games and 1.2 innings against his former team, the Angels. Against everyone else, he pitched 53.2 innings, allowing 35 hits, 5 HR, 21 BB and racking up 60 Ks with a 1.51 ERA. So yeah, don't let him face LA of A.
Anyhow, score one for the stat geeks, as they basically nailed Edwar's projections in 2008.
Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
2009
| Jonathan Albaladejo | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 36 | 39 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 27 | 4.75 | 4.67 | -1 | 3 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 33 | 32 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 26 | 4.09 | 3.90 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 51 | 55 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 37 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 0 | 5 |
| 2009 tht projection | 42 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 zips projection | 41 | 44 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 4.87 | 4.87 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 45 | 52 | 28 | 27 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 5.29 | 4.67 | -4 | 1 |
| 2009 average projection | 41 | 43 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 4.60 | 4.51 | 0 | 4 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 50 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 4.27 | 3.44 | 1 | 6 |
| 65% | 48 | 51 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 4.78 | 4.05 | -1 | 3 |
| Baseline | 45 | 52 | 28 | 27 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 5.29 | 4.67 | -4 | 1 |
| 35% | 41 | 50 | 27 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 5.81 | 5.29 | -6 | -2 |
| 20% | 36 | 48 | 26 | 25 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 6.32 | 5.91 | -7 | -4 |
One thing I am not happy about with CAIRO is how it projects middle relievers. I need to take a look at why it does it, but it seems to be pretty consistently high. Ignoring CAIRO, Albaladejo projects to be around average by most other systems.
| phil coke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 55 | 55 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 22 | 51 | 4.25 | 3.96 | 2 | 7 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 32 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 86 | 96 | 52 | 48 | 10 | 35 | 62 | 4.99 | 4.43 | -5 | 4 |
| 2009 tht projection | 123 | 139 | 80 | 74 | 18 | 60 | 76 | 5.44 | 5.33 | -13 | -1 |
| 2009 zips projection | 121 | 134 | 71 | 66 | 14 | 50 | 74 | 4.91 | 4.72 | -5 | 7 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 125 | 162 | 86 | 81 | 16 | 26 | 74 | 5.82 | 4.33 | -18 | -6 |
| 2009 average projection | 90 | 99 | 53 | 49 | 11 | 34 | 64 | 4.89 | 4.44 | -4 | 5 |
| prStarter->Reliever | 75 | 71 | 35 | 32 | 8 | 30 | 61 | 3.84 | 4.16 | 5.5 | 13.0 |
| phil coke starter cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 138 | 164 | 84 | 79 | 13 | 23 | 90 | 5.17 | 3.65 | -10 | 4 |
| 65% | 131 | 164 | 85 | 80 | 15 | 24 | 82 | 5.49 | 3.99 | -14 | -1 |
| Baseline | 125 | 162 | 86 | 81 | 16 | 26 | 74 | 5.82 | 4.33 | -18 | -6 |
| 35% | 113 | 152 | 81 | 77 | 16 | 26 | 62 | 6.14 | 4.67 | -21 | -9 |
| 20% | 100 | 140 | 76 | 72 | 16 | 25 | 52 | 6.46 | 5.01 | -22 | -12 |
| phil coke relief cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 83 | 69 | 32 | 29 | 6 | 27 | 76 | 3.16 | 3.24 | 12 | 21 |
| 65% | 79 | 70 | 34 | 31 | 7 | 29 | 68 | 3.50 | 3.70 | 9 | 17 |
| Baseline | 75 | 71 | 35 | 32 | 8 | 30 | 61 | 3.84 | 4.16 | 6 | 13 |
| 35% | 71 | 71 | 36 | 33 | 9 | 31 | 54 | 4.18 | 4.62 | 3 | 10 |
| 20% | 68 | 71 | 37 | 34 | 10 | 32 | 48 | 4.52 | 5.08 | 0 | 7 |
Because his 2008 was so out of character, Coke's projections for 2009 aren't very good. However, there's another factor here. Coke's projections assume he is a starter, but it looks like his role will be in the bullpen. So I applied my starter->reliever conversion to his average projection to get a revised projection as a reliever. That looks a little better.
| edwar ramirez | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 64 | 54 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 26 | 75 | 3.38 | 3.29 | 8 | 14 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 55 | 52 | 29 | 27 | 7 | 23 | 52 | 4.42 | 4.22 | 1 | 6 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 58 | 49 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 25 | 62 | 3.51 | 3.69 | 6 | 12 |
| 2009 tht projection | 61 | 53 | 29 | 27 | 7 | 27 | 71 | 3.92 | 3.69 | 4 | 10 |
| 2009 zips projection | 56 | 48 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 25 | 66 | 3.86 | 3.58 | 4 | 10 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 55 | 46 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 22 | 58 | 3.72 | 3.77 | 5 | 10 |
| 2009 average projection | 58 | 50 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 25 | 64 | 3.80 | 3.71 | 5 | 10 |
| edwar ramirez cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 61 | 43 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 19 | 72 | 2.94 | 2.65 | 11 | 17 |
| 65% | 58 | 45 | 22 | 21 | 5 | 21 | 65 | 3.33 | 3.21 | 8 | 13 |
| Baseline | 55 | 46 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 22 | 58 | 3.72 | 3.77 | 5 | 10 |
| 35% | 50 | 44 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 22 | 49 | 4.11 | 4.33 | 2 | 7 |
| 20% | 44 | 42 | 23 | 22 | 7 | 22 | 40 | 4.50 | 4.89 | 0 | 4 |
The projections are generally in agreement that Edwar should have a strong year in 2009.
Value
| Jonathan Albaladejo: Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 4 | 0.4 |
| 2009 Salary | $403,075 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $1,098,861 | $695,786 |
| $3,500,000 | $1,282,004 | $878,929 |
| $4,000,000 | $1,465,147 | $1,062,072 |
| $4,500,000 | $1,648,291 | $1,245,216 |
| $5,000,000 | $1,831,434 | $1,428,359 |
| $5,500,000 | $2,014,578 | $1,611,503 |
| $6,000,000 | $2,197,721 | $1,794,646 |
| phil coke: Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 13 | 1.3 |
| 2009 Salary | $403,300 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $3,900,000 | $3,496,700 |
| $3,500,000 | $4,550,000 | $4,146,700 |
| $4,000,000 | $5,200,000 | $4,796,700 |
| $4,500,000 | $5,850,000 | $5,446,700 |
| $5,000,000 | $6,500,000 | $6,096,700 |
| $5,500,000 | $7,150,000 | $6,746,700 |
| $6,000,000 | $7,800,000 | $7,396,700 |
| edwar ramirez: Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 10 | 1.0 |
| 2009 Salary | $422,450 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $3,104,140 | $2,681,690 |
| $3,500,000 | $3,621,497 | $3,199,047 |
| $4,000,000 | $4,138,854 | $3,716,404 |
| $4,500,000 | $4,656,211 | $4,233,761 |
| $5,000,000 | $5,173,567 | $4,751,117 |
| $5,500,000 | $5,690,924 | $5,268,474 |
| $6,000,000 | $6,208,281 | $5,785,831 |
They're all cheap and cost-controlled, and they all project better than replacement level. It's kind of nice for the Yankees to have some flexibility in the pen. They can swap guys with options around when the pen is overworked and essentially not lose much.
Conclusion
A lot of "analysts" are claiming the Yankee bullpen is a concern. That's because they're lazy and don't bother to look at the people who are in it. It's easier to bleat about how the Yankees are making a huge mistake taking Jobber out of the pen than do a modicum of research and see that he's not really needed there. While it's certainly possible that some of the relievers will disappoint and not hit their projections, it's also unlikely that they all do. Any one of these three guys would be a credible setup man if they hit their projections, and they're arguably worse then the next three relievers I'll look at (Marte, Bruney and Veras).
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Newsday: Fighting for Yanks’ job, Veras won’t play in WBC
DUNEDIN, Fla. - Jose Veras got a call from an official from Team Dominican Republic Tuesday night informing him that the team had plans to use him in their bullpen. But the 28-year-old reliever won’t be competing in the World Baseball Classic, which has teammates Robinson Cano, Damaso Marte and Alex Rodriguez. Edwar Ramirez also has decided not to play.
Veras believes it’s more important for him to stay with the Yankees during spring training and compete for job in the bullpen. “I don’t have a spot, so I’m going to have to fight for a spot,” he said yesterday. “I’m a rookie guy, young guy trying for one of the spots here with the Yankees. I don’t think if I leave for 20 days that it’s going to be possible to have a spot.”
I’ve been thinking about the Yankee pen recently. If we assume that Mo and Marte are locks, and that the Yankees will carry 11 or 12 pitchers, that leaves four or five spots open for competition. Looking at the 40 man roster, that gives them the following candidates:
Likely
Brian Bruney
Jose Veras
On the bubble
Alfredo Aceves
Jonathan Albaladejo
Phil Coke
Dan Giese
Edwar Ramirez
David Robertson
Not likely
Andrew Brackman
Anthony Claggett
Wilkin De La Rosa
Michael Dunn
Christian Garcia
Eric Hacker
Steven Jackson
Humberto Sanchez
Mark Melancon and J.B. Cox are not on the 40 man roster but may also merit consideration. I doubt either breaks camp in the majors though. I also don’t see any reason that Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy wouldn’t start the year in SWB.
I’d guess roster status with options and waivers will influence the decision process somewhat. My guess is they take Bruney and Veras for sure, then two or three of Albaladejo, Coke, Giese, Ramirez and Robertson. But they should have good flexibility to cover for injuries and fatigue this season.
BTW, my apologies for the lack of real content recently. Work issues and personal issues are cutting into my blogging time.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Yankees.com: Big signings affecting Pettitte’s return
Though the Yankees have not pulled their offer, they may be preparing for life without Pettitte, who has been advised not to accept such a dramatic pay cut from the $16 million he earned in each of the last two seasons.
Citing a source, Newsday reported that the Yankees felt comfortable with their offseason spending and the roster as comprised. Nothing has been finalized, but the Yankees are reportedly leaning toward not re-signing Pettitte. The New York Post characterized the chances of retaining Pettitte as “doubtful.”
“Right now it’s doubtful on Pettitte, given where we are financially with this stuff,” a Yankees official told the Post. “But things change, especially here, if Hank and Hal [Steinbrenner] decide to do something.”
Pettitte may seem like a luxury, but is that really the case?
Pettitte projects to pitch 210 innings and save 22 runs above replacement according to CAIRO.
Replacing Pettitte’s innings with 150 innings of Phil Hughes and 60 innings of Ian Kennedy project to be only a two run shortfall, although young pitchers are notoriously difficult to project so there’s a fair amount of risk in that approach.
Hughes hasn’t demonstrated enough durability to automatically pencil him in for 150 innings, so if we give him 100 innings and Kennedy 110, it’s a four run shortfall.
Let’s say A.J. Burnett gets hurt and only pitches 100 innings, moving Hughes up the depth chart and requiring 150 innings of Kennedy and 60 innings of Alfredo Aceves. Now we’re down nine runs.
You can see the effect as we move down the depth chart, ending up with Phil Coke and Dan Giese starting, both of whom CAIRO projects as around replacement level.
In a nutshell, the Yankees can weather an injury or two even if they don’t bring back Pettitte IF Hughes/IPK can pitch to their projections, but anything more than that starts to hurt them in the area of one to two wins.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
If the 2009 Season Started On November 16, 2008
It’d be pretty damn cold for baseball, but I thought it would be interesting to look at how the Yankees project right now, prior to any free agent signings. So here are the CAIRO projections for the presumed starting nine and for the pitching staff.
BR: Raw batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement
RS: Runs saved defensively at listed position
WAR: Wins above replacement level
For now the bench is set to replacement level, although that could change. The playing time for the starting nine is probably a little optimistic, but the offseason is the time for optimism, right?
So as presently constituted, the Yankees look like a team that should score around 830 runs next season if they don’t add any more offense. They also look to be about a win below average defensively, which is much better than last season. Brett Gardner’s defensive projection is probably too generous, but that could be countered by Nick Swisher’s 1B defense if the scouting reports are more accurate than his zone rating. Melky Cabrera and Gardner are basically projected to be worth the same in total, so swapping one with the other shouldn’t make a ton of difference on virtual paper.
The offense may very likely not change this offseason, but the pitching will very likely change quite a bit.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level pitcher
WAR: Wins above replacement level
I am trying to be pessimistic with the pitching staff on purpose, so I’m using the players’ projected innings rather than adjusting for 2009 expectations (ie, Joba pitching 117 innings instead of around 140). As a squad, the Yankees look to allow around 760 runs with the pitching staff as currently constituted. Obviously, more innings by Chamberlain, Wang and Hughes could fix that somewhat. The releiver numbers aren’t adjusted for leverage, so that’s another area where they could see a little boost. The current Yankee defense is already included in the pitcher projections, so we don’t need to add the below-average defense projection in.
A team that would score 828 runs and allow 761 would have a PythagenPat winning percentage of .540, which is equivalent to an 88 win team. If you add C.C. Sabathia and his projected 229 innings to the mix, taking away Kei Igawa and reducing Aceves’s and Kennedy’s innings, this is how the staff would look.
With the same offense, that’s a 93 win PythagenPat team, although given the strength of the AL East, we would probably want to knock that down by a few wins.
We can play the ‘what if they sign _____?’ game now, so if you’d like to get a feel for how much adding certain players would be worth, ask in the comments.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Baseball America: New York Yankees Top Ten Prospects
1. Austin Jackson, of
2. Jesus Montero, c
3. Andrew Brackman, rhp
4. Austin Romine, c
5. Dellin Betances, rhp
6. Zach McAllister, rhp
7. Alfredo Aceves, rhp
8. Phil Coke, lhp
9. Mark Melancon, rhp
10. Bradley Suttle, 3b
I’m not really all that impressed by this list. Should I be?
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Relief Pitching Edition)
After looking at a bunch of underperformance, there was one bright spot in the 2008 Yankees’ season, the bullpen. Like with the starters, I’m just going to look at the optimistic scenario from the pitching projection entry back in March.
Mariano F’ing Rivera
FR: FIP converted to runs allowed
FIP: Fielding independent-pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher.
Mariano Rivera is awesome. Mo rebounded from what looked like the start of his decline to put up what was arguably the best season of his career, at least on a rate basis. How dominant was Rivera?
It was only the second season EVER where a pitcher pitched 60 or more innings and had a WHIP less than 0.675.
It was only the second season EVER where a pitcher pitched 60 or more innings and had a K/BB ratio greater than 12.
Opponents hit .165/.190/.233 against him.
It was the third lowest OPS+ ever allowed by a pitcher who pitched at least 60 innings.
Rivera passed 1000 innings pitched this year, putting him on the top of Baseball Reference’s ERA+ career leaderboard. No pitcher has ever prevented runs relative to his era and ballpark better than Rivera has.
So yeah, Mo’s pretty good. And he did all this with bone spurs in his throwing shoulder. We are fortunate to have watched him.
Rivera’s season was 14 runs better than projected.
Joba Chamberlain
Somewhere, Mike Francessa is sighing wistfully about Joba the reliever. Joba did pretty well in the pen again in 2008, although he was more valuable as a starter. I am hoping that Chamberlain will start 2009 in the rotation, even if it takes some juggling to keep his innings down, and early offseason talk is that Joba will start exclusively in 2009.
Chamberlain was about 4 runs better than projected to be in relief, partially because he pitched 5 more innings than expected out of the pen.
The Farns
Raise your hand if you miss the Farns. While his ERA was respectable during his 2008 Yankee stint, his HR rate led to a very frightening FIP. Although the Ivan Rodriguez trade didn’t really work out, the Yankees sold Farns at the right time. Still, he saved a couple of runs more than projected. He’s a free agent this year, maybe the Yankees should re-sign him. NOT!
The Hawk
So we were 3-3 with guys exceeding expectations, but LaTroy Hawkins breaks the string. He seems like a good guy but his Yankee stint was disappointing. He was 7 runs worse than expected before being traded to Houston, where he ripped up AAAA.
Chris Britton
Britton’s probably begging for a trade at this point. He projected decently but didn’t get much work, and when he did he didn’t do much with it, ending the year at 4 runs worse than projected. I’d be surprised to see him on the Yankees in 2009.
Brian Bruney
Bruney was very effective in 2008, although his peripherals indicate a fair bit of luck. His walk rate is still pretty high, but his stuff is dominant. He was throwing a 90 mph slider at the end of the year. He missed a good chunk of the year with a foot injury, but was quite good on both sides of that. He saved 10 runs more than expected. I wouldn’t expect him to be quite this good next year, but I think his FIP is a reasonable expectation for what he may do, an ERA in the mid 3s.
Edwar Ramirez
Despite what some beat writers will tell you, Edwar Ramirez had a pretty good year. Yeah, he’s HR prone, but that’s really his only major weakness, although I guess I’d like to see him walk fewer people too. I wouldn’t necessarily trust him to be a setup man right now, but he was a good solid arm to have in the middle of the pen and should be next year as well. Edwar pitched more than I expected him to and did pretty well, saving 4 runs above his projections.
Ross Ohlendorf
Gone and not really missed. The Yankees have a bunch of guys who profile better on the way. Ohlendorf has good stuff, but it didn’t translate to the field as he got hammered in the bigs, allowing 9 runs more than his relief projection. He didn’t do much better in Pittsburgh, matching his 66 ERA+, although that came as a starter.
The Others
I didn’t include any of these guys in my original projections so they get lumped together here. Jose Veras had a surprisingly good start to the season before faltering over the last month.
May 3 - Aug 24
IP: 46.7
H: 38
R: 14
ER: 14
HR: 6
BB: 17
K: 50
ERA: 2.70
FIP: 3.82
xFIP: 3.68
tRA: 4.45
His peripherals indicated that he was probably lucky to have an ERA of 2.70, and sure enough a correction came.
Aug 27 - Sep 28
IP: 11.3
H: 16
R: 9
ER: 9
HR: 1
BB: 12
K: 14
ERA: 7.15
FIP: 5.05
xFIP: 5.55
tRA: 5.51
I’m still skeptical about Veras because his command is still not very good. I do think he can be a useful middle inning reliever, although I’d probably peg him as a true talent 4.50 ERA guy, not the 3.64 ERA guy he was this year.
Phil Coke is a bad-ass. I wouldn’t read too much into the results of 14.7 innings, but he just looks like he’s got the goods to be a strong lefty reliever. In his last outing of the year he was hitting 96 mph. I’d still probably try him out as a starter first though, with the bullpen as a fall-back if that doesn’t work.
Dan Giese is probably a decent depth guy to have as a fifth starter or long reliever, and he had a pretty good season, although I don’t see the Yankees keeping a spot on the roster open for him to start 2009.
Alfredo Aceves impressed after his callup, although his FIP says we should expect him to not be quite so good. Still, I liked what I saw from him in his limited time and think he could be average or slightly below as a swingman.
Damaso Marte did not impress in 2008 as a Yankee, although his FIP is encouraging. His option isn’t cheap, and he’s a type A free agent, so the Yankees may think long and hard about picking up his option. If I had to guess, they will eventually do so. He’ll still be a Type A free agent next season, and he buys the Yankees more time to sift through the kids. He could also be traded mid-season for prospects like Jeff Karstens.
David Robertson’s ERA isn’t pretty, but really, he pitched pretty well in the majors for the most part. A 3.60 FIP is very good for a young relief prospect, and 5 of the 18 runs he gave up came in one brutal outing. Take that outing out of his line, and his ERA falls to 3.90. And I know you can play that game with almost anyone, but it makes me feel better.
I won’t run through the rest, but overall, even the non-projected relievers pitched pretty well, putting up a 4.11 ERA and saving 17 runs above replacement.
Here’s what the final tally for the bullpen looks like.
If you wanted to draw one positive from this year’s Yankees, the emergence of the bullpen has to be it. While the bulk of the credit for that has to go to the pitchers, Joe Girardi also deserves some credit. For the most part he seemed to spread the work around (although I think Jose Veras may be Spanish for Scott Proctor), and the bulk of the pen was effective because of it. They were collectively 64 runs better than replacement level, or 31 runs better than projected. Take away Hawkins, Ohlendorf and Traber since they’re no longer on the team and they would have saved 79 runs above replacement level. While we have to rationally expect Mo to give back some of his 2008 value and Joba to not be in the pen (hopefully), there’s enough good depth here to make the bullpen a strength again in 2009.
The even better part is, there’s more potential help on the way in Jonathan Albaladejo, Humberto Sanchez, and Mark Melancon.
So we should change the title of this entry, because the relief pitching had nothing to do with the disappointment. In fact, if you factor in leverage, they may have been the difference between this being an 81 win team or an 89 win team.
Looking at the final numbers, we have an offense that underperformed by 141 runs, a defense that underperformed by 18 runs, a starting rotation that underperformed by 30 runs, and a bullpen that overperformed by 31 runs. We probably shouldn’t separate out the defense from the pitching since that would double-count it, so we basically have a team that had a run differential 140 runs worse than expected. Adding those 140 runs to the Yankees’ Pythagenpat wins (87) and re-calculating Pythagenpat would have made them a 100 win team. Factor in their strength of schedule, and you end up right around the optimistic projection of 97 wins.
So as long as the Yankees fix the offense, defense and starting rotation for 2009, they should be fine.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Yankees.com: Offense wakes up late to lift Yankees
NEW YORK—It wasn’t exactly the start the Yankees envisioned Wednesday night—from the mound or the batter’s box.
While the New York bats sat silent through the first five innings, starter Phil Hughes built up a pitch count of 89 through four innings to make an earlier exit than he would have liked.
But when the Yankees turned to their bullpen with a one-run deficit, the relievers came through, delivering five shutout innings to keep the score close. And the offense came alive to back them up as the Bombers rallied in the late innings for a 5-1 comeback victory over the White Sox (84-67) on Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. As the lineup cycled through, bats started connecting, and the hits came together.
Offense? What is offense?
I thought Hughes looked ok, although obviously his pitch efficiency sucked. He was hitting 92-93 consistently and featuring a cutter more often. Obviously his command was not right, but I’m more concerned about his physical health and tools right now as far as what that means for his future, and for that I think last night was encouraging.
Phil Coke relieved Hughes and continued his scoreless innings start to his career. If only he had more time he could challenge John Hiller for most scoreless innings at Yankee Stadium over the start of one’s career.
It was a rare day where the Yankees’ tragic number did not go down, still sitting at three. If Boston goes 2-5 over their next 7 games and the Yankees go undefeated over theirs’, that sets up a meaningful first game at Fenway for the final regular season series at least (provided Minnesota/Toronto lose at least one game as well). And that’s not happening, but it’d be cool if it did…
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy
My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me. Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral. Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced. The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it.
BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.
What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores. Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.
Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.
Here’s the offense.
Here are the starting pitchers.
Here are the relievers.
And here’s everyone.
These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that. Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.
C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6
So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated). Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.
These numbers are against average, not replacement level. Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.
This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA. An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.
Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.
And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.
And the bottom 25.
Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
tRA and the 2008 Yankees
By way of Baseball Think Factory, I was introduced to a new stat called tRA. What is tRA? It’s a way to evaluate pitchers based on their peripheral stats and batted ball types allowed, developed by Graham MacAree who writes for Lookout Landing. He also has a new site called StatCorner which looks like it’s going to be a cool site for more in-depth statistical analysis.
What tRA does is assign run values to each event a pitcher allows, but removing the defense. It’s more in depth than FIP or DIPS which regress BABIP to league average, because it makes use of an important factor that FIP and DIPS ignore. All batted ball types are NOT created equal. A pitcher who allows more line drives should allow a higher BABIP, all other things being equal. So ground balls, fly balls, and line drives are given average run values for those events.
tRA also assigns out values for each event that a pitcher allows. The events are park-adjusted and out values are for what an average defense would do, so what tRA should give us is the net performance of a pitcher in a neutral park with an average defense behind him, but with more information than something like FIP, xFIP, or DIPS gives us. If you want to read more about the actual run values and out values and park adjustments, it’s all discussed at this link.
Here’s what tRA says for the 2008 Yankees.
RV: Run value of all events.
OV: Out value of all events.
tRSAA: Runs saved above average using tRA
tRSAR: Runs saved above replacement using tRA
tWAR: Wins above replacement using tRA (tRSAR/10)
This doesn’t account for leverage, but Mo is still the best pitcher on the Yankees by this measure. The Yankee pitching staff scores decently by this measure, but when you factor in a team defense that’s 48 runs below average overall by zone rating, you go from a run prevention unit that’s 15 wins better than replacement to one that’s 10 wins better.
And lastly, here’s how the AL teams stack up using this measure.
Seems about right. The White Sox raw pitching stats may look middling, but when you factor in their ballpark they may be the best pitching staff in the league. Toronto and Tampa have them beat in ERA+, but that’s most likely a function of defense (Toronto is +48!!! by zone rating as far as runs saved, and Tampa is +8, the White Sox are +3).
I think this a pretty cool way to look at pitching in more depth, but I’d be interested to see what everyone else thinks. The methodology certainly seems sound to me.
Monday, September 1, 2008
NY Daily News: Yankees’ Minor League Report
Phil Coke was a “fringy prospect” until this season, says Mark Newman, the Yankees vice president of baseball operations. But Coke was the first name Newman uttered in a recent conversation about Yankee minor-leaguers who made significant strides this season.
“Now we think he’s a very good prospect,” Newman said. “He’s got his velocity to 94 (mph) and his slider has more depth and a late break.”
He’s made such strides that he will be called up to the Yankees today, when rosters expand.
Coke, 26, was mostly a starter at Double-A Trenton and went 9-4 with a 2.51 ERA before being promoted to Triple-A Scranton. He switched to the bullpen so the Yankees could manage the number of innings he pitched and see how his stuff translated to relieving. In 14 games at Scranton (one start), he’s 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA.
“He can start or relieve,” Newman said. “He’s got enough pitches to start because he also has a changeup. He’s certainly a possibility for the major-league team for next year.”
Coke debuted today against Detroit and looked pretty good I thought.
Newman also discusses Zach McAllister, Juan Miranda, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine in this article. Hat tip to Was Watching.
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