Monday, August 24, 2009
2008 vs. 2009 Yankees Pitching
Following up on this post about where the 2009 Yankees have improved compared to 2008, here's a look at the pitching staffs.I'm just going to show the top five starters and top five relievers in terms of IP, then show everyone else collectively. Again, I'm pro-rating the 2009 stats to 162 games to allow direct comparison, even though we shouldn't assume the players will perform exactly as they have over the rest of the season.
| Role | 2008 | IP | RSAR | 2009 | IP | RSAR | WAR +/- |
| SP1 | Mike Mussina | 200 | 50 | C.C. Sabathia* | 242 | 65 | 1.5 |
| SP2 | Andy Pettitte* | 204 | 25 | A.J. Burnett | 207 | 45 | 1.9 |
| SP3 | Darrell Rasner | 113 | 2 | Andy Pettitte* | 199 | 32 | 3.0 |
| SP4 | Chien-Ming Wang | 95 | 20 | Joba Chamberlain | 165 | 29 | 0.9 |
| SP5 | Sidney Ponson | 80 | 1 | Chien-Ming Wang | 55 | -22 | -2.3 |
| Total | 693 | 99 | 869 | 148 | 4.9 | ||
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 71 | 31 | Mariano Rivera | 69 | 27 | -0.4 |
| RP | Jose Veras | 58 | 11 | Philip Hughes | 92 | 21 | 1.0 |
| RP | Edwar Ramirez | 55 | 8 | Alfredo Aceves | 83 | 10 | 0.2 |
| RP | Kyle Farnsworth | 44 | 8 | Phil Coke* | 65 | 2 | -0.6 |
| RP | Joba Chamberlain | 35 | 10 | David Robertson | 47 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Total | 263 | 68 | 357 | 66 | -0.2 | ||
| The Rest | 486 | 30 | The Rest | 229 | -20 | -5.0 | |
| Total | 1442 | 196 | 1455 | 194 | -0.2 |
RSAR: Park-adjusted runs saved above replacement level.
WAR +/-: Difference in wins above replacement (2009 RSAR - 2008 RSAR at each slot, divided by 10.)
When the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia, I saw more than a few comments, mostly from Yankee haters, about how all he was going to do was replace Mike Mussina and how it was a minimal upgrade. That sort of "analysis" was pretty lazy, as the numbers show. While Moose was great last year, Sabathia projected to be a win or a win and half better because he would pitch a lot more innings, even if the rate of performance was similar. So far Sabathia has been worth every penny of his contract.
Yeah, he's inconsistent, but A.J. Burnett has also been very valuable. He leads the Yankees in quality starts with 17, and the Yankees are 16-9 in his starts. He's on pace to be 4.5 WAR, which would be a win and a half better than he projected to be, since his projections assumed he'd miss a non-trivial amount of time. I have some concerns about the fact that Burnett's outpitched his FIP to this point, but his history shows that his FIP is high and should come down some. Burnett's on pace to be close to two wins better than last year's #2 starter, Andy Pettitte.
Speaking of Pettitte, he's on pace to be a bit better than last year in terms of RSAR, even though his FIP in 2009 is higher than 2008 (4.08 vs. 3.71). My first thought was that it must be the HRs in NYS, but he's essentially giving up HRs at the same rate as he did last year (2.16% of batters faced homered against him in 2008, compared to 2.44% in 2009). The difference is in his walk rate, as he's walking around 9% of the batters he's faced compared to 6% this year. Thankfully, last year's abnormally high BABIP of .339 has come down significantly this season to .314, so he's been far less hittable. In 2008, batters hit .290/.338/.422 against Pettitte, and this year it's .269/.334/.403. The fact that Pettitte is the third Yankee starter instead of Darrell Rasner in terms of innings pitched this season has been close to a 3 win upgrade.
We know Joba Chamberlain's scuffled, but he's still been an asset, and is on pace to end the season around 3 WAR. Ignoring leverage, that's just about as valuable as Mariano Rivera was in 2008 in a ridiculously sublime season. Joba should stay in the rotation going forward, and will hopefully start to show some of the ability to dominate that he's flashed at times a little more frequently.
Of course, now we have to deal with the 'Keep Hughes in the bullpen' clowns, but that's a fight for next season.
Fifth starter this year has been a hodge-podge, but right now Chien-Ming Wang is listed as the fifth starter. As we know, it was a terrible season for Wang both health-wise and performance-wise, but to see that it's 22 runs WORSE than Snacks Pontoon was in 2008 really kind of hammers it home, huh?
The Yankees' top four starters are on pace to collectively be 7.2 wins better than last years'. That's a massive upgrade. Of particular importance is the innings pitched. Last year's top five starters managed 693 innings, and this year's are on pace to pitch 869 innings. This obviously has benefits to the bullpen in terms of lessening their workload and perhaps in preventing some of the less appealing options pitching more frequently
Moving onto the pen, it's a testament to how ridiculously good Mariano Rivera was in 2008 that a season where he's got a 1.87 ERA would be a downgrade, but there you have it.
Phil Hughes has stepped in as the all important "Bridge to Mo" in 2009. His pro-rated innings are probably too high since he piled up some innings as a starter, but with 38 games left he should get another 15 innings or so and end the year in the 80-85 IP range. At that rate, he'd still be an upgrade over Jose Veras (remember him?) in 2008.
Alfredo Aceves looks like he has either hit the wall, is hiding an injury, or is having a correction after pitching over his head most of the year. I think he's still a useful arm in middle reliever, but he's probably closer to a 4.00 ERA guy than a 2.00 ERA guy. At his current rate he'd be a touch more valuable than Edwar Ramirez was in 2008.
Phil Coke's poor ERA masks the fact that he's actually been pretty useful as a tactical weapon. With Damaso Marte back now, Coke can hopefully be restricted to more of LOOGY role, where he should continue to be useful. Still, in terms of RSAR he's been a touch worse than the Farns was last year.
David Robertson's been pretty good in 2009, aside from his walk rate. Until he gets that under control he's probably not going to see a ton of work in high-leverage situations, but he's definitely a nice arm to have in the pen. At his current pace he'll be a little worse than Joba was in his 35 relief innings last season.
Collectively the top five relievers from 2009 have been roughly the same as the 2008 group, a couple of runs worse.
The rest of the staff in 2009 has been a lot worse than 2008, although 11 runs of the 20 run difference is Anthony Claggett's 3 innings of 14 hit, 13 run ball. The other chief culprits are Damaso Marte (-7) and Sergio Mitre (-8). Both pitchers will either start to pitch better or stop getting used, so I'm not worried about them.
Adding it all up, this year's staff to this point would end the year a touch worse than last year's, but the front-line talent (top four starters and top five relievers) look a lot better. Also, since we know some of the culprits responsible for the negtive performances are no longer part of the equation (Veras, Albaladejo, Claggett) we should probably be pretty comfortable the staff willl be as good or better going forward.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Relief Pitching Edition)
After looking at a bunch of underperformance, there was one bright spot in the 2008 Yankees’ season, the bullpen. Like with the starters, I’m just going to look at the optimistic scenario from the pitching projection entry back in March.
Mariano F’ing Rivera
FR: FIP converted to runs allowed
FIP: Fielding independent-pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher.
Mariano Rivera is awesome. Mo rebounded from what looked like the start of his decline to put up what was arguably the best season of his career, at least on a rate basis. How dominant was Rivera?
It was only the second season EVER where a pitcher pitched 60 or more innings and had a WHIP less than 0.675.
It was only the second season EVER where a pitcher pitched 60 or more innings and had a K/BB ratio greater than 12.
Opponents hit .165/.190/.233 against him.
It was the third lowest OPS+ ever allowed by a pitcher who pitched at least 60 innings.
Rivera passed 1000 innings pitched this year, putting him on the top of Baseball Reference’s ERA+ career leaderboard. No pitcher has ever prevented runs relative to his era and ballpark better than Rivera has.
So yeah, Mo’s pretty good. And he did all this with bone spurs in his throwing shoulder. We are fortunate to have watched him.
Rivera’s season was 14 runs better than projected.
Joba Chamberlain
Somewhere, Mike Francessa is sighing wistfully about Joba the reliever. Joba did pretty well in the pen again in 2008, although he was more valuable as a starter. I am hoping that Chamberlain will start 2009 in the rotation, even if it takes some juggling to keep his innings down, and early offseason talk is that Joba will start exclusively in 2009.
Chamberlain was about 4 runs better than projected to be in relief, partially because he pitched 5 more innings than expected out of the pen.
The Farns
Raise your hand if you miss the Farns. While his ERA was respectable during his 2008 Yankee stint, his HR rate led to a very frightening FIP. Although the Ivan Rodriguez trade didn’t really work out, the Yankees sold Farns at the right time. Still, he saved a couple of runs more than projected. He’s a free agent this year, maybe the Yankees should re-sign him. NOT!
The Hawk
So we were 3-3 with guys exceeding expectations, but LaTroy Hawkins breaks the string. He seems like a good guy but his Yankee stint was disappointing. He was 7 runs worse than expected before being traded to Houston, where he ripped up AAAA.
Chris Britton
Britton’s probably begging for a trade at this point. He projected decently but didn’t get much work, and when he did he didn’t do much with it, ending the year at 4 runs worse than projected. I’d be surprised to see him on the Yankees in 2009.
Brian Bruney
Bruney was very effective in 2008, although his peripherals indicate a fair bit of luck. His walk rate is still pretty high, but his stuff is dominant. He was throwing a 90 mph slider at the end of the year. He missed a good chunk of the year with a foot injury, but was quite good on both sides of that. He saved 10 runs more than expected. I wouldn’t expect him to be quite this good next year, but I think his FIP is a reasonable expectation for what he may do, an ERA in the mid 3s.
Edwar Ramirez
Despite what some beat writers will tell you, Edwar Ramirez had a pretty good year. Yeah, he’s HR prone, but that’s really his only major weakness, although I guess I’d like to see him walk fewer people too. I wouldn’t necessarily trust him to be a setup man right now, but he was a good solid arm to have in the middle of the pen and should be next year as well. Edwar pitched more than I expected him to and did pretty well, saving 4 runs above his projections.
Ross Ohlendorf
Gone and not really missed. The Yankees have a bunch of guys who profile better on the way. Ohlendorf has good stuff, but it didn’t translate to the field as he got hammered in the bigs, allowing 9 runs more than his relief projection. He didn’t do much better in Pittsburgh, matching his 66 ERA+, although that came as a starter.
The Others
I didn’t include any of these guys in my original projections so they get lumped together here. Jose Veras had a surprisingly good start to the season before faltering over the last month.
May 3 - Aug 24
IP: 46.7
H: 38
R: 14
ER: 14
HR: 6
BB: 17
K: 50
ERA: 2.70
FIP: 3.82
xFIP: 3.68
tRA: 4.45
His peripherals indicated that he was probably lucky to have an ERA of 2.70, and sure enough a correction came.
Aug 27 - Sep 28
IP: 11.3
H: 16
R: 9
ER: 9
HR: 1
BB: 12
K: 14
ERA: 7.15
FIP: 5.05
xFIP: 5.55
tRA: 5.51
I’m still skeptical about Veras because his command is still not very good. I do think he can be a useful middle inning reliever, although I’d probably peg him as a true talent 4.50 ERA guy, not the 3.64 ERA guy he was this year.
Phil Coke is a bad-ass. I wouldn’t read too much into the results of 14.7 innings, but he just looks like he’s got the goods to be a strong lefty reliever. In his last outing of the year he was hitting 96 mph. I’d still probably try him out as a starter first though, with the bullpen as a fall-back if that doesn’t work.
Dan Giese is probably a decent depth guy to have as a fifth starter or long reliever, and he had a pretty good season, although I don’t see the Yankees keeping a spot on the roster open for him to start 2009.
Alfredo Aceves impressed after his callup, although his FIP says we should expect him to not be quite so good. Still, I liked what I saw from him in his limited time and think he could be average or slightly below as a swingman.
Damaso Marte did not impress in 2008 as a Yankee, although his FIP is encouraging. His option isn’t cheap, and he’s a type A free agent, so the Yankees may think long and hard about picking up his option. If I had to guess, they will eventually do so. He’ll still be a Type A free agent next season, and he buys the Yankees more time to sift through the kids. He could also be traded mid-season for prospects like Jeff Karstens.
David Robertson’s ERA isn’t pretty, but really, he pitched pretty well in the majors for the most part. A 3.60 FIP is very good for a young relief prospect, and 5 of the 18 runs he gave up came in one brutal outing. Take that outing out of his line, and his ERA falls to 3.90. And I know you can play that game with almost anyone, but it makes me feel better.
I won’t run through the rest, but overall, even the non-projected relievers pitched pretty well, putting up a 4.11 ERA and saving 17 runs above replacement.
Here’s what the final tally for the bullpen looks like.
If you wanted to draw one positive from this year’s Yankees, the emergence of the bullpen has to be it. While the bulk of the credit for that has to go to the pitchers, Joe Girardi also deserves some credit. For the most part he seemed to spread the work around (although I think Jose Veras may be Spanish for Scott Proctor), and the bulk of the pen was effective because of it. They were collectively 64 runs better than replacement level, or 31 runs better than projected. Take away Hawkins, Ohlendorf and Traber since they’re no longer on the team and they would have saved 79 runs above replacement level. While we have to rationally expect Mo to give back some of his 2008 value and Joba to not be in the pen (hopefully), there’s enough good depth here to make the bullpen a strength again in 2009.
The even better part is, there’s more potential help on the way in Jonathan Albaladejo, Humberto Sanchez, and Mark Melancon.
So we should change the title of this entry, because the relief pitching had nothing to do with the disappointment. In fact, if you factor in leverage, they may have been the difference between this being an 81 win team or an 89 win team.
Looking at the final numbers, we have an offense that underperformed by 141 runs, a defense that underperformed by 18 runs, a starting rotation that underperformed by 30 runs, and a bullpen that overperformed by 31 runs. We probably shouldn’t separate out the defense from the pitching since that would double-count it, so we basically have a team that had a run differential 140 runs worse than expected. Adding those 140 runs to the Yankees’ Pythagenpat wins (87) and re-calculating Pythagenpat would have made them a 100 win team. Factor in their strength of schedule, and you end up right around the optimistic projection of 97 wins.
So as long as the Yankees fix the offense, defense and starting rotation for 2009, they should be fine.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy
My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me. Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral. Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced. The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it.
BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.
What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores. Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.
Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.
Here’s the offense.
Here are the starting pitchers.
Here are the relievers.
And here’s everyone.
These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that. Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.
C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6
So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated). Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.
These numbers are against average, not replacement level. Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.
This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA. An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.
Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.
And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.
And the bottom 25.
Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
tRA and the 2008 Yankees
By way of Baseball Think Factory, I was introduced to a new stat called tRA. What is tRA? It’s a way to evaluate pitchers based on their peripheral stats and batted ball types allowed, developed by Graham MacAree who writes for Lookout Landing. He also has a new site called StatCorner which looks like it’s going to be a cool site for more in-depth statistical analysis.
What tRA does is assign run values to each event a pitcher allows, but removing the defense. It’s more in depth than FIP or DIPS which regress BABIP to league average, because it makes use of an important factor that FIP and DIPS ignore. All batted ball types are NOT created equal. A pitcher who allows more line drives should allow a higher BABIP, all other things being equal. So ground balls, fly balls, and line drives are given average run values for those events.
tRA also assigns out values for each event that a pitcher allows. The events are park-adjusted and out values are for what an average defense would do, so what tRA should give us is the net performance of a pitcher in a neutral park with an average defense behind him, but with more information than something like FIP, xFIP, or DIPS gives us. If you want to read more about the actual run values and out values and park adjustments, it’s all discussed at this link.
Here’s what tRA says for the 2008 Yankees.
RV: Run value of all events.
OV: Out value of all events.
tRSAA: Runs saved above average using tRA
tRSAR: Runs saved above replacement using tRA
tWAR: Wins above replacement using tRA (tRSAR/10)
This doesn’t account for leverage, but Mo is still the best pitcher on the Yankees by this measure. The Yankee pitching staff scores decently by this measure, but when you factor in a team defense that’s 48 runs below average overall by zone rating, you go from a run prevention unit that’s 15 wins better than replacement to one that’s 10 wins better.
And lastly, here’s how the AL teams stack up using this measure.
Seems about right. The White Sox raw pitching stats may look middling, but when you factor in their ballpark they may be the best pitching staff in the league. Toronto and Tampa have them beat in ERA+, but that’s most likely a function of defense (Toronto is +48!!! by zone rating as far as runs saved, and Tampa is +8, the White Sox are +3).
I think this a pretty cool way to look at pitching in more depth, but I’d be interested to see what everyone else thinks. The methodology certainly seems sound to me.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Yankee Offense, Pitching and Defense since the All Star Break Winning Streak
Remember that eight game winning streak after the All Star Break? Me either.Anyway, here's how the Yankees have done over the 18 games since then.
Offense
| Player | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Xavier Nady | 17 | 62 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .339 | .388 | .710 | 15 | 7.0 |
| Johnny Damon | 17 | 72 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .361 | .425 | .486 | 14 | 5.4 |
| Bobby Abreu | 18 | 72 | 15 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .333 | .400 | .569 | 14 | 5.3 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 18 | 66 | 14 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 6 | .258 | .372 | .606 | 14 | 3.9 |
| Jason Giambi | 16 | 45 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .289 | .418 | .489 | 9 | 3.3 |
| Richie Sexson | 14 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .476 | 4 | 0.9 |
| Jose Molina | 12 | 31 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .258 | .324 | .387 | 4 | -0.4 |
| Justin Christian | 11 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .222 | .278 | 2 | -0.8 |
| Chad Moeller | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .167 | .167 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 11 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .259 | .286 | .407 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Derek Jeter | 17 | 65 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4 | .277 | .347 | .354 | 8 | -1.4 |
| Wilson Betemit | 14 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .282 | .282 | .385 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Robinson Cano | 17 | 62 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .210 | .279 | .323 | 5 | -4.8 |
| Melky Cabrera | 17 | 45 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .178 | .213 | .222 | 1 | -5.4 |
| Total | 203 | 631 | 95 | 177 | 25 | 3 | 27 | 88 | 55 | 11 | 126 | 13 | 4 | 24 | .281 | .348 | .458 | 95 | 8.9 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAA: BR compared to average (not position-adjusted)
I know we like to pick on WOE, but overall they haven't been the biggest problem on the team, although the Melky and Cano two-headed monster of disappointment continues to be a problem. We have enough data that shows that Cano is better than this that I'm inclined to think this is just a blip season for him and we should expect better next year. How much better? Who knows? With Melky, the Yankees have to do something to upgrade CF next year. The free agent market is thin, so it may take a trade.
Xavier Nady has been very good, and that bodes well for next season. He's not this good, but he'll probably project to be better than he ever has been in the past. Bobby Abreu has been solid lately too, which will hopefully make him attractive to other teams in the offseason. I don't see the sense in the Yankees bringing him back with Nady around.
Pitching
| Player | G | GS | CG | GF | W | L | Sv | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | ERA | RA | FIP | RSAA |
| Daniel Giese | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.0 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 4.49 | 3.4 |
| Mike Mussina | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26.0 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 3.46 | 3.81 | 3.24 | 2.7 |
| Jose Veras | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 4.88 | 2.4 |
| Billy Traber | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.2 |
| Mariano Rivera | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5.7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 6.91 | 0.0 |
| Brian Bruney | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5.06 | 5.06 | 4.14 | -0.2 |
| Sidney Ponson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25.0 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5.04 | 5.04 | 5.20 | -0.9 |
| Christopher Britton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.36 | 7.36 | 6.20 | -1.1 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.06 | 5.91 | 4.14 | -1.4 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 12.20 | -1.5 |
| Ian Kennedy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22.50 | 22.50 | 3.70 | -3.9 |
| Darrell Rasner | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19.3 | 24 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 6.52 | 6.98 | 5.42 | -4.8 |
| Damaso Marte | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 11.57 | 11.57 | 4.34 | -5.3 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 13.50 | 15.19 | 6.58 | -6.2 |
| David Robertson | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 14.14 | 14.14 | 6.63 | -7.3 |
| Andy Pettitte | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17.3 | 27 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 8.83 | 8.83 | 5.45 | -7.9 |
| Total | 67 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 158.0 | 190 | 115 | 111 | 25 | 58 | 121 | 5 | 6.32 | 6.55 | 4.92 | -32.0 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 times HR plus 3 times (BB + HBP) - 2 times SO)/IP + 3.2). Regresses BABIP to league average.
RSAA: Runs saved above average, using earned and unearned runs
The pitching staff has been really bad, although it's not entirely their fault as we will soon see.
Defense*
| Player | Team | AL | Pos | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Avg PM | Diff | RS |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | CF | 14 | 10 | 28 | 92.7 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .929 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 2 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17.3 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian, Justin | NYY | AL | CF | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22.1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | SS | 4 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 3 | .889 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | .833 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYY | AL | LF | 10 | 10 | 21 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .857 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | CF | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .889 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian, Justin | NYY | AL | LF | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 15 | 15 | 47 | 124 | 17 | 38 | 0 | 3 | .809 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYY | AL | RF | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .600 | 3 | 4 | -1 | -1 |
| Sexson, Richie | NYY | AL | 1B | 11 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .625 | 5 | 7 | -2 | -1 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 7 | 5 | 13 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .692 | 9 | 11 | -2 | -2 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 14 | 14 | 29 | 122 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 5 | .690 | 20 | 22 | -2 | -2 |
| Abreu, Bobby | NYY | AL | RF | 14 | 14 | 46 | 122 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .804 | 37 | 40 | -3 | -3 |
| Giambi, Jason | NYY | AL | 1B | 11 | 11 | 17 | 80.7 | 72 | 4 | 0 | 6 | .588 | 10 | 14 | -4 | -3 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 15 | 14 | 60 | 126 | 29 | 43 | 3 | 9 | .650 | 39 | 48 | -9 | -7 |
| Total | 133 | 112 | 316 | 988.8 | 300 | 133 | 4 | 33 | .769 | 243 | 264 | -21 | -16 |
*Defensive numbers don't include today's debacle.
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
This is just a lost season for Cano on both sides of the ball. He now rates below average defensively according to zone rating. I am sure his offensive struggles aren't helping his defense.
Giambi and Abreu being bad on defense isn't exactly a surprise, although Damon and A-Rod were both having solid seasons until recently. There's some double-counting between the pitching and the defense here, but it's safe to assume the Yankees have been somewhere between 20-30 runs worse than average over this stretch. An average team would in theory go 9-9 over 18 games, although the split of 8 home games and 10 road games might make that 8-10 instead. So the Yankees 6-12 record is right in line with their overall crappy performance.
I'm pretty sure this road trip has knocked the Yankees out of playoff contention at this point, but maybe they've got one more good streak in them.
Baltimore Aquarium Contest
The Yankees are going to be in Baltimore next weekend and I've been offered a prize package to give to anyone who may be interested in attending any of the games by the Baltimore National Aquarium. The prize consists of:
- A family four-pack of tickets to the National Aquarium
- An overnight stay at one of three Harbor Magic Hotels
National Aquarium in Baltimore (501 East Pratt Street, Baltimore, Maryland, 21202)
The National Aquarium was rated #1 for all Baltimore things to do and is a favorite attraction among visitors to the area. Home to over 16,000 animals, the Aquarium features habitats from around the world including Animal Planet Australia: Wild Extremes, an exciting dolphin show and a new 4-D Immersion Theater. The Aquarium's location in Baltimore's Inner Harbor, which is in walking distance to the stadium, makes it easy to plan a visit before or after a game.
410-576-3800
www.aqua.org
Hotel (Three locations in downtown Baltimore)
Harbor Magic Hotels consist of three unique boutique hotels located in and around Baltimore's famous Inner Harbor. Each is delightfully different, yet all three are centered on delivering exceptional personalized visits that let you experience Baltimore as few others can.
866-583-4162
www.harbormagic.com
I'm going to offer the prize to whomever can answer the following question first. If no one answers by EOD tomorrow I'll just take the first email that expresses interest by EOD Friday
Who is the Yankees' career leader in runs saved by zone rating? (Note: Zone rating has only been tracked since 1987)
Just email me through the site if you are interested.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Yankee Stats for Offense, Pitching and Defense - July 27 - August 1, 2008
| Player | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA |
| Bobby Abreu | 22 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .409 | .500 | 1.000 | 11 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 22 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .318 | .423 | .682 | 7 |
| Xavier Nady | 15 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .412 | .867 | 5 |
| Johnny Damon | 23 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .348 | .444 | .478 | 5 |
| Richie Sexson | 8 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .556 | .500 | 2 |
| Jose Molina | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .455 | .444 | 2 |
| Derek Jeter | 22 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .227 | .320 | .273 | 2 |
| Melky Cabrera | 22 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .261 | .318 | 2 |
| Jason Giambi | 18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .278 | .278 | .278 | 1 |
| Wilson Betemit | 12 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .250 | .250 | 1 |
| Justin Christian | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .167 | .167 | .167 | 0 |
| Chad Moeller | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .167 | .167 | 0 |
| Robinson Cano | 26 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .115 | .115 | .154 | -3 |
| Total | 214 | 31 | 60 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 6 | .280 | .345 | .453 | 36 |
BRAA: Batting runs above average using linear weights (not position-adjusted)
So much for Cano's hot streak...
| Player | G | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | ERA | FIP | K9 | BB9 | HR9 | RSAA | FRSAA |
| Joba Chamberlain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.50 | 1.73 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jose Veras | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.00 | 2.30 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 8.00 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Giese | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.60 | 4.44 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damaso Marte | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6.00 | 1.93 | 15.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | -1 | 1 |
| Mariano Rivera | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | 11.80 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | -1 | -2 |
| Darrell Rasner | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6.00 | 7.57 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | -1 | -2 |
| Christopher Britton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.36 | 7.07 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | -1 | -1 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18.00 | 15.40 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | -2 | -1 |
| Sidney Ponson | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11.0 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5.73 | 5.67 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 0.8 | -2 | -2 |
| Mike Mussina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10.80 | 8.04 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 3.6 | -4 | -2 |
| David Robertson | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 23.14 | 17.00 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 7.7 | -5 | -3 |
| Andy Pettitte | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.3 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15.19 | 8.86 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | -7 | -3 |
| Total | 21 | 1 | 5 | 53 | 72 | 45 | 44 | 11 | 18 | 33 | 2 | 7.47 | 5.85 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | -20 | -14 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA
RSAA: Runs saved above average
FRSAA: RSAA using FIP
There's Joba, Veras and then a bunch of suck.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | G | INN | Ch | PM | ZR | Avg PM | Diff | RS |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | C | 5 | 45 | 14 | 13 | .929 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | RF | 5 | 40 | 14 | 12 | .857 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | SS | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYY | AL | RF | 1 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian, Justin | NYY | AL | LF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 2B | 4 | 34 | 5 | 4 | .800 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 18 | 5 | 4 | .800 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | CF | 3 | 25 | 9 | 7 | .778 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Sexson, Richie | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
| Giambi, Jason | NYY | AL | Pos | 4 | 29 | 6 | 4 | .667 | 5 | -1 | -1 |
| Abreu, Bobby | NYY | AL | LF | 4 | 33 | 23 | 19 | .826 | 20 | -1 | -1 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 1B | 5 | 45 | 20 | 9 | .450 | 16 | -7 | -5 |
| Total | 41 | 310 | 105 | 80 | .762 | 89 | -9 | -7 |
INN: Defensive innings at position
Ch: Fieldable chances
PM: Plays made
ZR: Zone rating (PM / Ch)
Avg PM Plays made by an average defender at the same position
Diff: PM - Avg PM
RS: Runs saved (Diff time run value of a play not made at the position)
And WTF is up with Cano's glove now?
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Yankees’ Catching Situation Gets Pudgier
Olney reporting…
Farnsworth out - Pudge Rodriguez in.
Discuss.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Yankee Pitching since the 2008 All Star Break
| Player | G | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | FIP | K9 | BB9 | HR9 | RSAA | RSAR | FRAA | FRAR |
| David Robertson | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.58 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 15.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Mariano Rivera | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2.25 | -0.30 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4.91 | 1.02 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.06 | 15.4 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jose Veras | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3.86 | 4.49 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Mussina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.0 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.64 | 1.34 | 8.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| Andy Pettitte | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14.0 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1.29 | 2.49 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13.0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0.69 | 1.12 | 11.8 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Damaso Marte | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.80 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Rasner | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3.18 | 4.61 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Giese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sidney Ponson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.7 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4.76 | 3.73 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 32 | 8 | 0 | 75 | 61 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 18 | 83 | 1.56 | 1.92 | 10.0 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 21 | 28 | 18 | 25 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 x HR + 3 x (BB + HBP) - 2 x SO) / IP + 3.2. This regresses BABIP to league average for everyone by focusing on the things a pitcher has direct control over.
RSAA: Runs saved above average. Park-adjusted league average relief RA (R/IP*9) - Individual relief RA divided by 9 times IP. Includes all runs, not just earned runs.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. I just multiply park-adjusted league average relief RA by 1.2, since AAA is about 80% of the quality of the AL.
FRAA: RSAA using FIP instead of RA.
FRAR: RSAR using FIP instead of RA.
You have to love a team K/9 of 10. When's the last time the Yankees had an eight game stretch of pitching as dominant as this? Unfortunately, Snacks Pontoon looms tonight.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Selected Yankee Reliever Performance since May 29
| Player | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | RA | FIP | HR9 | BB9 | K9 | RSAA | RSAR | FRAA | FRAR |
| Daniel Giese | 8 | 13.6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 2.54 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 4.1 |
| Mariano Rivera | 19 | 21.3 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.12 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 13.5 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 7.4 |
| Jose Veras | 23 | 23.3 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 2.31 | 2.31 | 4.01 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 21 | 19.7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 2.29 | 2.29 | 4.42 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 1.8 |
| David Robertson | 10 | 11.3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.78 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 11.2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 12 | 16.3 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 4.24 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 20 | 22.3 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 4.03 | 4.03 | 3.78 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 11.3 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.6 |
| Total | 113 | 127.9 | 85 | 36 | 36 | 11 | 44 | 134 | 2.53 | 2.53 | 3.40 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 9.4 | 23.6 | 38.5 | 11.4 | 26.3 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 x HR + 3 x (BB + HBP) - 2 x SO) / IP + 3.2. This regresses BABIP to league average for everyone by focusing on the things a pitcher has direct control over.
RSAA: Runs saved above average. Park-adjusted league average relief RA (R/IP*9) - Individual relief RA divided by 9 times IP. Includes all runs, not just earned runs.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement. I just multiply park-adjusted league average relief RA by 1.2, since AAA is about 80% of the quality of the AL.
FRAA: RSAA using FIP instead of RA.
FRAR: RSAR using FIP instead of RA.
Why May 29th? Because that's the day after Joba officially left the pen. FIP says that they may be pitching a little over their heads, but even with a correction the key relievers in the pen have been very good. Even the Hawk has been serviceable.
Is it possible that this is all because of the personnel on hand, or is it because Joe Girardi is a better bullpen manager than Joe Torre? My guess is the truth lies somewhere in the middle. It's really fun to watch the pen now though, isn't it?
Friday, June 20, 2008
A Tale of Two Bullpens
Last year, the Yankee bullpen was a sore spot for most of the season, although Joba Chamberlain's arrival and Mariano Rivera remembering that he was Mariano Rivera helped shore up the late inning portion in the second half of the season.The bullpen was a source of concern coming into 2008 because of the eventual move of Joba to the rotation, and with concerns about Rivera aging and not being the dominant force he once was, plus the fact that there were few proven veterans in the pen.
Rivera has come back with a vengeance this season, and Joba was solid in the pen for 23 innings. In addition to that, some other pitchers have emerged. I'm going to run through some of the key relievers and take a look at their 2008 projections and their 2008 YTD performance and see what we should expect going forward.
| Rivera,Mariano | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 6 | 2 | 2.88 | 63 | 0 | 71 | 63 | 0 | 71 | 64 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 61 | 12 | 19 |
| Year-to-Date | 2 | 2 | 0.79 | 32 | 0 | 34 | 32 | 0 | 34 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 39 | 14 | 18 |
| Rest-of-Year | 4 | 1 | 2.08 | 36 | 0 | 39 | 36 | 0 | 39 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 38 | 10 | 15 |
| Total | 6 | 3 | 1.48 | 68 | 0 | 73 | 68 | 0 | 73 | 46 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 77 | 24 | 33 |
RSAA: runs saved above average.
RSAR: runs saved above replacement.
In the dictionary next to the word awesome, there should be a picture of Mariano Rivera. Even with some expected regression he's on pace to have a monster year.
| Farnsworth,Kyle | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 4 | 3 | 4.19 | 62 | 0 | 61 | 62 | 0 | 61 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 56 | 1 | 8 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 2 | 4.05 | 32 | 0 | 33 | 32 | 0 | 33 | 37 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 5 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 2 | 4.50 | 35 | 0 | 36 | 35 | 0 | 36 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 0 | 4 |
| Total | 3 | 4 | 4.29 | 67 | 0 | 69 | 67 | 0 | 69 | 73 | 33 | 15 | 26 | 63 | 1 | 9 |
The Farns is who we thought he was. An erratic hard-thrower who will make small leads in the eighth inning extraordinarily stressful, but for the most part should be an average reliever. His HR rate this year is freakishly high, and should correct somewhat going forward.
| Veras,Jose | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 3 | 2 | 4.76 | 40 | 1 | 43 | 40 | 1 | 43 | 45 | 23 | 5 | 19 | 33 | -2 | 4 |
| Year-to-Date | 2 | 0 | 3.00 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 19 | 0 | 21 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 3 | 6 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 1 | 4.12 | 22 | 0 | 24 | 22 | 0 | 24 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 4 |
| Total | 4 | 1 | 3.60 | 41 | 0 | 45 | 41 | 0 | 45 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 17 | 41 | 4 | 10 |
Jose Veras is slowly emerging as one of the key relievers in the Yankee pen. He's still got less than stellar command, but his stuff is good enough to get past that most of the time. If Farnsworth does start to scuffle, expect Veras to start pitching in more high-leverage situations. His projection was blah coming into the year but his going-forward projection gets a nice boost from his YTD performance.
| Ramirez,Edwar | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 4 | 1 | 4.12 | 42 | 0 | 49 | 42 | 0 | 49 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 22 | 55 | 2 | 7 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 0 | 2.86 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 20 | 0 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 4 | 6 |
| Rest-of-Year | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 23 | 0 | 27 | 23 | 0 | 27 | 24 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 1 | 5 |
| Total | 2 | 1 | 3.49 | 43 | 0 | 49 | 43 | 0 | 49 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 23 | 55 | 5 | 11 |
Edwar Ramirez has done a good job in the majors after tearing up the minors, although his last outing wasn't very good. Ramirez projects to be pretty good going forward as well. There's a fairly good chance he can be the best non-Mo reliever in the pen by year end.
| Hawkins,LaTroy | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 4 | 2 | 4.36 | 56 | 0 | 55 | 56 | 0 | 55 | 60 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 31 | 0 | 8 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 1 | 5.64 | 24 | 0 | 29 | 24 | 0 | 29 | 27 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 18 | -4 | 0 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 1 | 4.65 | 30 | 0 | 31 | 30 | 0 | 31 | 34 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -1 | 3 |
| Total | 3 | 2 | 5.13 | 54 | 0 | 60 | 54 | 0 | 60 | 61 | 34 | 5 | 28 | 36 | -5 | 2 |
The Yankees are trying to trade the Hawk, but until they do he'll be a long man and pitch in mainly low leverage spots. He should pitch a little better going forward, although he's not much better than replacement level at this point.
| Ohlendorf,Ross | W | L | ERA | DE | WTD | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RSAA | RSAR |
| Projection | 5 | 5 | 5.46 | 25 | 16 | 94 | 25 | 16 | 94 | 116 | 57 | 14 | 29 | 53 | -11 | 1 |
| Year-to-Date | 1 | 1 | 5.64 | 22 | 0 | 37 | 22 | 0 | 37 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 18 | 33 | -5 | -1 |
| Rest-of-Year | 2 | 3 | 5.40 | 18 | 6 | 50 | 18 | 6 | 50 | 59 | 30 | 7 | 18 | 32 | -6 | 1 |
| Total | 3 | 4 | 5.50 | 40 | 6 | 87 | 40 | 6 | 87 | 102 | 53 | 13 | 36 | 65 | -11 | 0 |
Ohlendorf's numbers are ugly, but part of that is that he's not being used correctly. He also has a pretty marked platoon split this year (.224/.289/.368 vs. RHB, .347/.437/.547 vs LHB). He's got good stuff, but so far it hasn't translated to continued success. It'll be interesting to see how his performance looks if he is restricted to one inning outings.
For comparison's sake, here's a look at how this year's bullpen compares to last year's.
| Year | W | L | Sv | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2007 | 29 | 21 | 34 | 529.7 | 503 | 257 | 57 | 260 | 435 | 4.37 | 4.43 | 8.55 | 0.97 | 4.42 | 7.39 | 5 | 70 |
| 2008 YTD | 10 | 10 | 21 | 246.0 | 210 | 96 | 29 | 100 | 228 | 3.51 | 4.10 | 7.68 | 1.06 | 3.66 | 8.34 | 16 | 44 |
| 2008 On Pace | 22 | 22 | 47 | 545.9 | 466 | 213 | 64 | 222 | 506 | 3.51 | 4.10 | 7.68 | 1.06 | 3.66 | 8.34 | 36 | 99 |
Joba's time in the pen in 2007 and 2008 kind of cancel each other out, but we can see that this year's pen is walking fewer and striking out more. They're allowing fewer hits. The only negative is a slight uptick in their HR rate. The 2008 pen's FIP is higher than their ERA so that may be in for a slight correction. Or maybe the Farns will stop giving up HRs every 4 innings.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - May 23
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Exp W: Expected wins using log5
Exp L: Expected losses using log5
Act W: Actual wins
Act L: Actual losses
If you had to pick the three main reasons for the Yankees' disappointing start to the year, the performances of Robinson Cano, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy would top the list. I'm hoping our new sponsorship of Hughes's Baseball Reference page gets him back on track. And in last night's 2-1 win over Baltimore, Cano and Kennedy took some steps towards redemption.
Kennedy pitched six effective innings, working around four walks and allowing one run. The Yankee offense struggled again but managed to get one run off Brian "Cy" Burres. Jose Veras, Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera each added a scoreless inning, and that set the stage for the bottom of the ninth.
Hideki Matsui led off with a single, then Alex Rodriguez whiffed and Jason Giambi allegedly foul-tipped a two strike pitch into Ramon Hernandez's glove, although the umpire needed Hernandez's help to realize it. Bobby Abreu pinch-hit for Shelley Duncan and drew a walk, which brought up the beleaguered Cano. Cano took two pitches then grounded a single the other way. Matsui charged home and got in under a high throw home and the Yankees had a walkoff win.
Cano's season line is still ugly at .207/.256/.314 but he is hitting .302/.333/.444 in May. He needs to better than that to get his line back up to respectability, but I think we all know he has the ability to do that.
It's Memorial Day weekend so I won't be around much, but I'll at least try and get the Game Chatters posted.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Thanks Kyle
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Yankees 5, Rays 3
Andy Pettitte battled through seven innings, giving up lots of runners but pitching out of most of the jams, holding Tampa Bay to three runs. Kyle Farnsworth pitched a 1-2-3 8th, and Mariano Rivera shut the Rays down in the ninth. Behind that solid pitching the Yankees scored five runs and beat the Rays 5-3 last night.
Derek Jeter went 3 for 4 and Hideki Matsui had a couple of hits and drove in 2 runs. Jason Giambi continued to be invisible, but as long as he’s reasonably healthy and his defense isn’t hurting the team I’d keep running him out there to see if he can get going. Johnny Damon didn’t get a hit but did draw two walks and made a catch in the ninth on a play that I don’t think Hideki Matsui even gets close to. So far, Damon’s zone rating in LF is very good this season, he’s got a ZR of .941, which would translate to being a +20 defender over a full season. In contrast, Hideki Matsui’s LF ZR so far is .688, which would translate to a -65. Matsui’s not that bad and Damon’s probably not quite that good, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume the defensive gap between them could be about 20-30 runs over a full season.
If we look back at my April Expectations post from about 9 days ago, we can see how the Yankees are doing compared to their log5 expectations. Log5 says they should be 8.6 - 6.4 and theyr’e 8-7, so they’re about a half game off of where they should be.
Boston comes to the Stadium tonight after Cleveland handed them a couple of games on a silver platter. Thanks Tribe!
In other assorted news, Jorge Posada is mulling a cortisone shot, Joba Chamberlain is still tending to his father, LaTroy Hawkins is changing his number and Steve Phillips is still a moron.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Growing Pains
Since starting out 2008 with a great debut, Phil Hughes has been flat out horrible. In his last two starts he’s gone five innings and allowed 12 hits, 10 runs, walked 7 and struck out 5. His ERA over that span is 16.20. The way the game played out, Hughes was the chief reason the Yankees lost to Boston 8-5 last night, which cost them the series victory in their first matchup of 2008. I don’t know that there’s much choice besides throwing Hughes out there again and hoping he gets things figured out. With Alan Horne hurt the next choice on the farm is Kei Igawa, and I’ll give you three guesses how that would turn out.
Despite Hughes’s awfulness, the Yankees had a fighting chance in the game as they managed to score four runs over the first five innings against Daisuke Matsuzaka. David Aardsma held the yankees scoreless in the sixth and seventh but the Yankees tried to rally in 8th. Jason Giambi homered leading off the inning against Mike Timlin. Giambi is hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000 vs Timlin this year, and .038/.257/.077 against everyone else this year. Jose Molina singled to left but then was removed from the game for a pinch runner. It seemed like a strange move at the time but there turned out to be a logical rationale for it. Melky Cabrera pinch-hit for Alberto Gonzalez and singled and the Yankees had the tying runs on base with no one out. Johnny Damon ended any threat by hitting into a double play. So much for Damon reporting to camp in shape, at least so far. Just think, he’s signed for another year after this one.
Kyle Farnsworth gave Boston an insurance run in the eighth but it didn’t really matter as the Yankees went out meekly in the ninth. It wasn’t all Farn’s fault, as Jorge Posada could not even attempt to throw out any runners so Coco Crisp basically turned a single into a double which allowed two sac flies to score him.
Molina’s hamstring injury causes a real dilemma. It is definitely a DL issue, but the Yankees don’t have an active third catcher on their 40 man roster and Jorge Posada can’t throw. Some kind of roster move will probably be coming today with Chad Moeller getting called up. The logical move is probably putting Francisco Cervelli on the 60 day DL. Moeller makes Molina look like Albert Pujols offensively. He’s projected to “hit” somewhere in the area of .210./.260/.320. As long as Posada can’t throw, Moeller is going to play which doesn’t help an already struggling offense.
In other news, Joba Chamberlain’s father collapsed last night and Joba left the team to be with him. Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery for Mr. Chamberlain.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Oh Where, Oh Where Has My Little Offense Gone?
While my head knows that nine games is still way too small of a sample size to draw undue distinctions from, it sure didn’t feel like it while I watched the again punchless Yankees fall to Kansas City 4-0 last night. Granted, sometimes you run into a Roy Halladay. Sometimes you run into A.J. Burnett. Sometimes you run into Dustin McGowan. Sometimes you run into Andy Sonnastine. Sometimes you run into Edwin Jackson. Sometimes you run into James Shields. Sometimes you run into Jason Hammel. Sometimes you run into Brian Bannister. Sometimes you run into Zach Greinke. But come on, ALL NINE OF THEM?
With a forecast of rain all night, Joe Girardi pulled Ian Kennedy from starting the game and went with Brian Bruney to start the game. The reason given was so that they wouldn’t start the game with Kennedy and then lose him if the rain stopped the game. Considering the grief Girardi got for bringing back Josh Johnson from a long rain delay when he managed the Marlins in 2006 and Johnson’s subsequent breakdown which may or not have been related, this was pretty interesting out of the box thinking. For the most part it seemed to work well, although it likely cost the Yankees the use of Bruney and Farnsworth in today’s game. That’s probably bad in the former case but not necessarily so in the latter case. Kennedy ended up pitching the 6th through 8th, starting off poorly but finishing off pretty well.
The pitching didn’t really matter because the offense continued to stink. Here’s how the Yankees rate by position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights to this point.
Matsui : 2
Abreu : 1.5
Rodriguez : 0.7
Molina : 0.3
Gonzalez : 0.2
Cabrera : 0.1
Ensberg : -0.5
Damon : -0.5
Duncan : -0.5
Betemit : -1
Jeter : -1.5
Posada : -1.9
Giambi : -2.4
Cano : -4.4
How is Damon not worse? Hey Robinson, feel free to stop sucking. How bad has Cano been? Here are the five worst offensive players so far in the AL this season by position-adjusted BRAA:
Crawford : -4.3
Johjima : -4.3
Ortiz : -4.3
Cano : -4.4
Polanco : -4.6
Only Placido Polanco has been worse. He’s in good company with David Ortiz and Carl Crawford at least.
Like I said, it’s still too early to panic, but it’s probably not too early to get irritated or annoyed.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Blue Jays 5, Yankees 2
The Yankees couldn’t solve A.J. Burnett and fell to the Blue Jays 5-2 last night. The story of the game was how Burnett stifled the offense for the most part. Mike Mussina came within one out of a quality start before giving up a fourth run with two outs in the top of the sixth. Moose wasn’t great last night, but he pitched ok. His defense didn’t really help him as Jason Giambi showed why he’s ideally the DH. The other problem I took out of last night is that Toronto’s not projected to be one of the better offenses in the league this year and Moose still only managed to strike out two while walking two while getting hit around some.
According to Fangraphs, Moose allowed 20 balls in play last night. 9 were grounders, which was good, 6 were fly balls, and 5 were line drives. A 25% line drive rate is not a good sign for effectiveness. Nor is the fact that Pitch F/X thought his fastball was a changeup as he hovered around 85 mph for most of the night. To be fair, he seemed to be getting squeezed on the outside corner, although it always seems like Moose is getting squeezed, but I didn’t see enough last night to make me not worry about what he’ll be able to do this year.
LaTroy Hawkins relieved Moose and gave up the last Blue Jay run, Kyle Farnsworth gave up two hits but pitched a scoreless eighth and Ross Ohlendorf pitched a scoreless ninth, but the Yankees couldn’t capitalize when they got the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the ninth as Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, and Robinson Cano all flied out against Jeremy Accardo and the Yanks fell to 1-1.
Yanks go for the series victory tonight with Phil Hughes facing Dustin McGowan. Should be a fun pitching matchup.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Pitcher and Team Wrapup
We're finally through all the projections so it's time to look at what they mean. First up, here are the links to all the pieces for anyone who wants to get caught up.Position Players
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jorge Posada
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jason Giambi
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Robinson Cano
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Derek Jeter
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Alex Rodriguez
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Johnny Damon
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Melky Cabrera
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Bobby Abreu
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Hideki Matsui
Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Bench
Pitchers
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Andy Pettitte
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Mike Mussina
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Phil Hughes
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Ian Kennedy
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Joba Chamberlain
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Mariano Rivera
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins
Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Rest of the Pen
If you've been keeping up with these you'll recall that I projected the position players and bench to score 938 runs in 2008 using estimated playing time and depth charts. I projected their defense to be about 13 runs below average. For the pitching, that's a little bit trickier, so I'm going to present two scenarios.
Scenario 1
In this scenario, I'm going to assume that everything that I think the Yankees are planning for falls into place fairly well. This is basically the best case scenario assuming everyone plays to their average projections and innings limits.
| Starters | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 200 | 215 | 97 | 90 | 95 | 13 | 58 | 97 | 4.05 |
| Andy Pettitte | 200 | 220 | 103 | 94 | 98 | 19 | 62 | 137 | 4.25 |
| Phil Hughes | 160 | 152 | 78 | 72 | 77 | 16 | 57 | 129 | 4.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | 170 | 170 | 89 | 82 | 91 | 20 | 67 | 130 | 4.35 |
| Mike Mussina | 150 | 170 | 83 | 77 | 75 | 18 | 38 | 103 | 4.61 |
| Joba ChamberlainS | 100 | 94 | 47 | 43 | 45 | 11 | 33 | 99 | 3.90 |
| Starters Total | 980 | 1020 | 498 | 459 | 482 | 98 | 314 | 696 | 4.22 |
| Relievers | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Mariano Rivera | 70 | 64 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 60 | 2.88 |
| Joba ChamberlainR | 40 | 34 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 48 | 3.10 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 60 | 57 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 7 | 25 | 55 | 4.19 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 60 | 66 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 4.36 |
| Chris Britton | 40 | 39 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 3.99 |
| Brian Bruney | 40 | 39 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 33 | 4.88 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 40 | 37 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 44 | 4.12 |
| Ross OhlendorfR | 40 | 44 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 4.37 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 40 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 30 | 4.59 |
| Scott Patterson | 40 | 40 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 4.23 |
| Relievers Total | 470 | 461 | 226 | 209 | 231 | 53 | 169 | 396 | 4.01 |
| IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA | |
| Starters + Relievers | 1450 | 1481 | 723 | 669 | 713 | 151 | 483 | 1092 | 4.15 |
| Average | 1450 | 1513 | 783 | 720 | 769 | 163 | 535 | 1070 | 4.47 |
| Difference | 0 | -32 | 60 | 51 | 57 | -12 | -52 | 22 | -0.32 |
FR in the table above is FIP(fielding independent pitching) runs allowed, which is an approximation of what the Yankee pitchers would allow with an average defense. You can probably move the innings around in the pen but most of the relievers project fairly closely to each other so it shouldn't make a ton of difference. In this scenario, the Yankees as a team would allow 723 runs in total, with the defense being responsible for about ten of them.
Scenario 2
| Starters | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 180 | 193 | 87 | 81 | 86 | 12 | 52 | 87 | 4.05 |
| Andy Pettitte | 160 | 176 | 83 | 75 | 79 | 16 | 50 | 110 | 4.25 |
| Phil Hughes | 150 | 143 | 73 | 68 | 73 | 15 | 53 | 121 | 4.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | 150 | 150 | 78 | 73 | 80 | 17 | 59 | 115 | 4.35 |
| Mike Mussina | 150 | 170 | 83 | 77 | 75 | 18 | 38 | 103 | 4.61 |
| Kei Igawa | 100 | 111 | 62 | 58 | 62 | 17 | 36 | 73 | 5.26 |
| Jeff Karstens | 90 | 105 | 60 | 56 | 58 | 15 | 33 | 53 | 5.56 |
| Joba ChamberlainS | 70 | 65 | 33 | 30 | 31 | 8 | 23 | 69 | 3.90 |
| Starters Total | 1050 | 1113 | 560 | 518 | 544 | 118 | 344 | 731 | 4.44 |
| Relievers | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Mariano Rivera | 60 | 55 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 52 | 2.88 |
| Joba ChamberlainR | 30 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 3.10 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 50 | 47 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 4.19 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 50 | 55 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 4.36 |
| Chris Britton | 30 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 3.99 |
| Brian Bruney | 30 | 29 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 4.88 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 30 | 27 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 4.12 |
| Ross OhlendorfR | 30 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 4.37 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 30 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4.59 |
| Scott Patterson | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 4.23 |
| Sean Henn | 30 | 33 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 5.24 |
| Relievers Total | 400 | 396 | 196 | 182 | 199 | 45 | 147 | 331 | 4.09 |
| IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA | |
| Starters + Relievers | 1450 | 1509 | 756 | 700 | 742 | 163 | 490 | 1063 | 4.34 |
| Average | 1450 | 1513 | 783 | 720 | 769 | 163 | 535 | 1070 | 4.47 |
| Difference | 0 | -4 | 27 | 20 | 27 | 0 | -45 | -7 | -0.12 |
Here the assumption is the Yankees lose some time from their penciled-in starters and have to give Igawa and Karstens 190 innings. Sean Henn makes an appearance in the pen as well and the better-projected relievers pitch a little less. It should be noted that any or all of the pitchers could also pitch worse than projected, so this is not exactly the worst-case scenario by any means. I'd consider this more of a realistic/likely scenario assuming average fortune with health and performance. Here the Yankees as a team allow 783 runs, with 14 of them due to the defense.
So we have a runs scored of 938, and two different runs allowed totals. I'll use Pythagenpat to estimate the Yankees' schedule-neutral winning percentage. Pythagenpat is a more accurate way to estimate a team's pythagorean winning percentage by using a custom exponent instead of either the standard 2 or slightly more accurate 1.83. The formula to get the custom exponent is (RS/G + RA/G)^.28. Then we take RS^custom exponent and divide by (RS^custom exponent + RA^custom exponent).
Scenario 1
Runs Scored: 938
Runs Allowed: 723
Exponent: 1.92
Pythagenpat%: .62
Neutral Schedule Wins: 101
Scenario 2
Runs Scored: 938
Runs Allowed: 783
Exponent: 1.94
Pythagenpat%: .59
Neutral Schedule Wins: 95
We're not quite done yet, because now we have to look at the strength of the Yankees' schedule. Thankfully someone already did this on a post related to my Diamond Mind projections on Baseball Think Factory.
The AL East minus the Yanks has an expected winning percentage of .523. If we use Bill James's log 5 method to calculate the Yankees' expected winning percentage over their AL East games we get a winning percentage of .598 for scenario 1 and a winning percentage of .568 for scenario 2. I'm going to assume the rest of the schedule is .500 which is probably lazy but should be close enough with the margin of error.
Scenario 1: .598*76 + .62* 86 = 98.7 wins
Scenario 2: .568*76 + .59* 86 = 93.8 wins
I'm going to assume that the Yankees' luck will fall somewhere between scenarios 1 and 2. Split the difference and they should end up at 96 wins. Of course this depends on the key players staying healthy and hitting their projections, but on paper this is a very good team. Let's hope they show it starting Monday. The long off-season is almost over. Thanks to everyone who's stopped by over the last few months. Writing the blog and having people read and comment makes the off-season go by much faster for me.
Update: My Hardball Times' season preview for the Yankees has been posted on their site today for anyone who wants to check it out. Link: Five Questions: New York Yankees
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins
With the season speedily approaching it's time to zip through the rest of the bullpen members. I'll look at Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins today and the rest of the candidates tomorrow. Friday I'll wrap up the pitching as a whole and look at my overall team projection.Farnsworth has always had a great fastball as far as velocity, but his command of it is spotty which makes him a middling reliever. The Yankees signed him after his career year in 2005 on the hopes he'd harnessed his physical talent but so far instead they've gotten the Farns that Cubs fans warned us about.
2007
| Kyle Farnsworth | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 4.04 | 68 | 65 | 60 | 32 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 67 | 4 | 12 | 8.3 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 9.3 |
| Actual | 4.80 | 64 | 60 | 60 | 35 | 32 | 9 | 27 | 48 | -3 | -9 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 7.2 |
| Difference | 84% | 95% | 92% | -72% | -71% | 92% | 83% | 91% | 78% |
Farnsworth did worse than expected in every single category. He gave up more hits, walks, HRs and runs while striking out fewer batters than projected. Other than that he was solid.
For whatever reason Farnsworth didn't seem to be throwing as hard as consistently as he usually does last year, especially early in the season. For the games we have Pitch F/X data for, Farnsworth averaged 95 mph with his fastball which may be where he normally sits. Whether it was velocity or Kyle being Kyle, he was a disappointment last season.
2008
For 2008, we probably should expect a slight bounceback from Farnsworth if you look at his projections.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 67 | 0 | 63 | 62 | 32 | 30 | 7 | 27 | 55 | 4.29 | 4.18 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| marcel | 49 | 27 | 62 | 60 | 32 | 30 | 7 | 26 | 55 | 4.35 | 4.15 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| pecota | 47 | 0 | 53 | 48 | 24 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 51 | 3.71 | 3.91 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| zips | 69 | 0 | 65 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 9 | 27 | 64 | 4.02 | 4.28 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 6 |
| cairo | 63 | 0 | 64 | 62 | 34 | 32 | 9 | 27 | 56 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| average | 59 | 5 | 61 | 58 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 26 | 56 | 4.19 | 4.22 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
And here's what CAIRO sees for the Farns's range of projections.
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 54 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 22 | 63 | 3.70 | 3.46 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 65% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 58 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 24 | 60 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 8 |
| Baseline | 63 | 0 | 64 | 62 | 34 | 32 | 9 | 27 | 56 | 4.50 | 4.54 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 35% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 66 | 37 | 35 | 11 | 30 | 52 | 4.90 | 5.09 | -3 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 20% | 63 | 0 | 64 | 70 | 40 | 38 | 12 | 32 | 49 | 5.30 | 5.63 | -6 | 0 | -9 | -4 |
I'd be lying if I said had any clue how Farnsworth will do. I don't even have a gut feeling, but none of the above lines would surprise me.
Value
Farnsworth's average projection is that he will save 8 runs above a replacement level reliever. We can probably give him a little extra credit for leverage, I'll use 1.4 on the assumption he'll pitch some important innings but not as many as Mo. That boosts him to about one win above replacement
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 1.0 | $4,500,000 | $5,500,000 | -$1,000,000 |
Farnsworth not worth his contract? Who'd a thunk it?
Moving on from the Professor, we have Hawkins. I won't look at his 2007 projections because I don't have them handy, but I will touch on his actual performance.
2007
Hawkins had a surprisingly effective season in 2007 for the Rockies after putting up a 4.48 ERA for Baltimore in 2006. Hawkins throws hard but he seems to have lost his ability to strike anyone out. This was credited to a change in his approach, as he's re-defined himself as a sinkerballer who pitches to contact. The contrast between his 2004/2005 and 2006/2006 seems to bear that out.
| Year | G | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA * | FIP | *ERA+ | WHIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB% |
| 2004 | 77 | 50 | 25 | 82 | 72 | 27 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 69 | 2.63 | 3.69 | 167 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.54 | 7.57 | 36% | 39% | 19% | 6% |
| 2005 | 66 | 21 | 6 | 56.3 | 58 | 27 | 24 | 7 | 24 | 43 | 3.83 | 4.57 | 113 | 1.46 | 1.12 | 3.84 | 6.87 | 42% | 36% | 16% | 5% |
| 2006 | 60 | 12 | 0 | 60.3 | 73 | 30 | 30 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 4.48 | 3.91 | 102 | 1.46 | 0.60 | 2.24 | 4.03 | 42% | 33% | 20% | 4% |
| 2007 | 62 | 10 | 0 | 55.3 | 52 | 21 | 21 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 3.42 | 4.43 | 140 | 1.23 | 0.98 | 2.60 | 4.72 | 63% | 21% | 16% | 1% |
| 04-05 | 143 | 71 | 31 | 138.3 | 130 | 54 | 48 | 17 | 38 | 112 | 3.12 | 4.05 | 145 | 1.21 | 1.11 | 2.47 | 7.29 | 39% | 38% | 18% | 5% |
| 06-07 | 122 | 22 | 0 | 115.6 | 125 | 51 | 51 | 10 | 31 | 56 | 3.97 | 4.16 | 120 | 1.35 | 0.78 | 2.41 | 4.36 | 51% | 28% | 18% | 2% |
Despite the big drop in his K rate in 2006, Hawkins's GB/FB rate was pretty consistent with 2004 and 2005, so 2007 is the real outlier here. While a pitcher changing his style is certainly not without precedent, Hawkins is a risky bet to replicate his 2007 success.
2008
Here's the projection gauntlet for Hawkins.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 61 | 0 | 54 | 61 | 30 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 33 | 4.50 | 4.18 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| marcel | 52 | 28 | 59 | 62 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 36 | 4.12 | 4.32 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| pecota | 44 | 0 | 48 | 56 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 4.76 | 4.50 | -2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| zips | 61 | 0 | 56 | 60 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 31 | 4.34 | 4.56 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| cairo | 58 | 0 | 58 | 63 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 4.19 | 4.30 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| average | 55 | 6 | 55 | 60 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 18 | 31 | 4.36 | 4.37 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
Not exactly awe-inspiring, but serviceable. The low K rate scares me, and tells me that Hawkins is probably a guy who's best off starting an inning unless there's a double play opportunity to be had.
And here's the range of CAIRO projections
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 55 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 37 | 3.38 | 3.36 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 11 |
| 65% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 59 | 25 | 24 | 5 | 14 | 34 | 3.79 | 3.83 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 8 |
| Baseline | 58 | 0 | 58 | 63 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 4.19 | 4.30 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 35% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 67 | 31 | 30 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 4.59 | 4.78 | -1 | 5 | -3 | 2 |
| 20% | 58 | 0 | 58 | 71 | 33 | 32 | 8 | 20 | 25 | 5.00 | 5.25 | -3 | 2 | -6 | -1 |
Hawkins isn't really going to be a key part of the pen, although I suppose that could change if he earns it, so that baseline or even the 35% projection wouldn't be too bad.
Value
Hawkins on average looks to be about six runs better than a replacement level reliever. If we give him a leverage index credit of 1.3 then that's about eight runs better.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 0.8 | $3,600,000 | $3,750,000 | -$150,000 |
Seems like the Hawkins contract is right around where it should be.
Conclusion
I'd view anything that Farnsworth does this year as gravy. I don't have much in the way of expectations for him. I think Hawkins will be passable if unspectacular. Hopefully some of the young arms on the team develop into dependable relievers over the first half of the season which will lessen the need for over-reliance on either of them.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
What Cost Mo?
Continuing my review of the Yankees' potential free agents, it's time to look at Mariano Rivera. The best thing about these entries is I don't have to come up with a clever title, which is for me the hardest part of blogging.First, a disclaimer. Rivera is by far my favorite current Yankee, and probably my favorite baseball player ever. I try to be objective in most of the stuff that I do on this blog but Mo makes it harder for me than anyone. No matter what my walk through the numbers below ends up showing, I NEVER want to see Rivera in another team's uniform.
Rivera had a down year in 2007 by his own lofty standards. His ERA leapt from 1.80 to 3.15. It was his first season with an ERA above 2 since 2002. Still, a 3.15 ERA only looks bad when it's next to Mo's name.
The good news is that a look inside Mo's peripherals shows that for the most part he's a decent bet for continued good pitching, at least for the next few seasons. After a dip in his strikeout rate in 2006, he rebounded to fan 74 in 71.3 innings, the second highest rate of his career.
The biggest issue for Rivera in 2007 was that he gave up more hits than normal. I would not ascribe this solely to bad luck. There were games where he was legitimately hit hard and games where his cutter didn't seem to move as much as it has in years past. He's going to be 38 and as much as it sucks to see, those days are going to be more and more frequent as Rivera ages.
As a closer, Rivera's valuable, but his value is probably overstated. That's no slam on Mo, that's an issue with the save statistic and most managers' blind loyalty to it. Still, Rivera is probably good for 70-75 high leverage innings a year plus the postseason if the Yankees can get there.
Here's what CAIRO sees for Mo's range of projections next season.
| CAIRO | AGE | TEAM | LG | ERA | ERA+ | G | W | L | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| 80% | 38 | NYA | AL | 2.15 | 208 | 70 | 8 | 1 | 84 | 65 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 89 |
| 65% | 38 | NYA | AL | 2.51 | 178 | 66 | 7 | 2 | 80 | 66 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 80 |
| Baseline | 38 | NYA | AL | 2.74 | 163 | 66 | 7 | 1 | 75 | 67 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 69 |
| 35% | 38 | NYA | AL | 2.98 | 150 | 62 | 6 | 2 | 71 | 66 | 24 | 4 | 16 | 61 |
| 20% | 38 | NYA | AL | 3.46 | 129 | 58 | 5 | 2 | 66 | 68 | 26 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
Rivera's baseline projection for 2008 is 75 innings with an ERA of 2.74. That would be worth 14 runs above an average relief pitcher. Leverage would make those runs more valuable, so Rivera projects to be maybe two wins better than an average reliever. Realistically, that's not worth what it's probably going to end up costing to keep Mo. If I had to guess, a reasonable contract would be something in the neighborhood of two years and $20 million. Rivera will probably get something closer to 3 years and $40 million. But as I said with Jorge Posada, I'd rather see the Yankees overpay one of their own.
The encouraging thing is that unless Rivera completely implodes, even his 20% projection isn't that bad for a closer.
I don't do multi-year projections for pitchers yet, because I think projecting pitching for just one year is sketchy enough. I don't see anything in Rivera's stat line or history that makes me think he can't continue to be effective over the next three years, even though I'd expect him to continue to decline a little each season. Yeah, he could get hurt, but so could anyone. Just ask Toronto.
There are other reasons to keep Mo besides his value in dollars as it relates to marginal wins.
1) Signing Mo probably keeps Joba Chamberlain in the rotation. If Mo walks, who closes? Kyle Farnsworth? Yeah...
2) Signing Mo would engender goodwill with the Yankee fan base and go a long way towards undoing the PR mess that the media is stirring up after Joe Torre turned down a contract offer
3) Mo would be a good mentor to have around as the Yankees break in some young arms. His teammates respect him, and everyone around the league respects him.
4) Do you really want to see Mo in a Phillies uniform? How about Mo in an orange and blue clown suit in Flushing?
5) You've paid Carl Pavano $40 million for 111 innings of 4.77 ERA. You've dropped $46 million on Kei Igawa. You paid Kevin Brown $30 million for two seasons. Are you really going to nickel and dime Rivera?
5) Mo is awesome and you should keep awesome people on your team.
I've said it before, but it would break my heart to see Mariano Rivera leave the Yankees. Hopefully it doesn't happen.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
2007 ALDS: Yankee Run Values
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BRAA | DRAA | TRAA |
| R Cano | 16 | .333 | .375 | .800 | 1.175 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| S Duncan | 4 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A Rodriguez | 17 | .267 | .353 | .467 | .820 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M Cabrera | 16 | .188 | .188 | .375 | .563 | -1 | 1 | 0 |
| B Sardinha | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J Damon | 19 | .278 | .316 | .611 | .927 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| H Matsui | 16 | .182 | .438 | .182 | .620 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J Giambi | 4 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D Mientkiewicz | 8 | .000 | .143 | .000 | .143 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| J Posada | 17 | .133 | .235 | .200 | .435 | -2 | 0 | -2 |
| B Abreu | 17 | .267 | .353 | .533 | .886 | 1 | -4 | -3 |
| D Jeter | 17 | .176 | .176 | .176 | .352 | -2 | -1 | -3 |
BRAA: Batting runs above average by linear weights
DRAA: Defensive runs saved above average by linear weights
TRAA: BRAA + DRAA
| Player | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | RSAA |
| A Pettitte | 6.3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 |
| M Rivera | 4.7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 |
| P Hughes | 5.7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 2 |
| K Farnsworth | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 |
| M Mussina | 4.7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 1 |
| J Veras | 0.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| R Villone | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| J Chamberlain | 3.7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 0 |
| L Vizcaino | 0.7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | -1 |
| R Clemens | 2.3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11.57 | 11.57 | -2 |
| R Ohlendorf | 1.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | -2 |
| C Wang | 5.7 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 19.06 | 19.06 | -9 |
RSAA: Runs saved above average
| Player | TRAA |
| A Pettitte | 3 |
| M Rivera | 3 |
| P Hughes | 2 |
| R Cano | 1 |
| K Farnsworth | 1 |
| M Mussina | 1 |
| J Veras | 0 |
| S Duncan | 0 |
| A Rodriguez | 0 |
| R Villone | 0 |
| M Cabrera | 0 |
| B Sardinha | 0 |
| J Chamberlain | 0 |
| J Damon | 0 |
| H Matsui | 0 |
| J Giambi | 0 |
| L Vizcaino | -1 |
| D Mientkiewicz | -1 |
| J Posada | -2 |
| R Clemens | -2 |
| R Ohlendorf | -2 |
| B Abreu | -3 |
| D Jeter | -3 |
| C Wang | -9 |
| Total | -13 |
TRAA: TRAA/RSAA
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
2007 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown - Part Three
Today I conclude my ALDS preview with a look at the Yankee and Indian bullpens. First up, here's the Indians' pen.| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| Closer | Borowski | 2007 | 69 | 65.7 | 77 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 17 | 58 | .289 | .315 | .436 |
| Proj | 60 | 59 | 60 | 8 | 31 | 30 | 21 | 50 | .261 | .305 | .415 | ||
| Setup | Betancourt | 2007 | 68 | 79.3 | 51 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 80 | .183 | .197 | .277 |
| Proj | 60 | 69 | 55 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 69 | .215 | .235 | .332 | ||
| Middle | Laffey | 2007 | 9 | 49.3 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 25 | 12 | 25 | .287 | .338 | .388 |
| Proj | 37 | 205 | 233 | 19 | 120 | 111 | 12 | 25 | .279 | .287 | .412 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | 44 | 60.7 | 41 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 62 | .187 | .229 | .292 | |
| Proj | 33 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 42 | .190 | .235 | .297 | ||
| Fultz | 2007 | 49 | 37 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 28 | .228 | .304 | .346 | |
| Proj | 57 | 56 | 51 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 44 | .245 | .302 | .388 | ||
| Mastny | 2007 | 51 | 57.7 | 63 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 52 | .283 | .336 | .435 | |
| Proj | 36 | 40 | 43 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 36 | .282 | .337 | .422 | ||
| Lewis | 2007 | 26 | 29.3 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 34 | .234 | .288 | .315 | |
| Proj | 26 | 115 | 121 | 15 | 57 | 56 | 43 | 93 | .261 | .321 | .415 | ||
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | ||
| Closer | Borowski | 2007 | 36% | 31% | 19% | 5.34 | 5.07 | 3.90 | 3.56 | 85 | 146 | 116 | -.067 |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 17% | 4.82 | 4.61 | 3.92 | 4.11 | 95 | 124 | 117 | -.012 | ||
| Setup | Betancourt | 2007 | 29% | 37% | 19% | 1.48 | 1.48 | 2.07 | 2.74 | 190 | 274 | 162 | .419 |
| Proj | 30% | 37% | 19% | 2.68 | 2.55 | 2.42 | 2.59 | 141 | 255 | 155 | .261 | ||
| Middle | Laffey | 2007 | 64% | 15% | 17% | 4.75 | 4.56 | 3.69 | 3.88 | 272 | 147 | 71 | -.022 |
| Proj | 64% | 15% | 17% | 6.92 | 6.40 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 118 | 607 | 17 | -1.364 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | 55% | 20% | 17% | 2.22 | 1.78 | 2.87 | 2.55 | 124 | 134 | 154 | .381 | |
| Proj | 55% | 22% | 16% | 2.51 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 3.03 | 121 | 133 | 160 | .297 | ||
| Fultz | 2007 | 37% | 35% | 22% | 2.92 | 2.92 | 3.77 | 4.57 | 208 | 75 | 104 | .150 | |
| Proj | 40% | 31% | 20% | 3.80 | 3.56 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 146 | 101 | 113 | .098 | ||
| Mastny | 2007 | 44% | 29% | 19% | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.05 | 3.96 | 115 | 70 | 116 | .004 | |
| Proj | 45% | 28% | 20% | 4.83 | 4.83 | 4.41 | 4.00 | 133 | 90 | 120 | -.015 | ||
| Lewis | 2007 | 36% | 33% | 18% | 2.46 | 2.15 | 2.35 | 3.17 | 328 | 107 | 159 | .282 | |
| Proj | 36% | 33% | 18% | 4.45 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 90 | 101 | 107 | .128 |
AVG: Opponents' batting average against
OBP: Opponents' on base percentage against
SLG: Opponents' slugging against
GB%: Groundball percentage
FB%: Fly ball percentage
LD%: Line drive percentage
ERA: Earned run average
ERC: Component ERA (31 times OBP times SLG)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
HR+: HRs per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
BB+: BBs per batters faced compared to league average 100 is average, > 100 is better
K+: Ks per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
RS/G: Runs saved per game compared to league average
Despite an ERA over 5, Joe Borowski racked up 45 saves. Borowski's peripherals are actually better than you'd expect by looking at his ERA. Opponents are hitting .289/.315/.436 against him, which translates to a component ERA of 3.90. His FIP is also decent at 3.56.
He's appeared in 69 games and allowed 37 earned runs. However, 14 of those runs came in just three appearances, April 19 against the Yanks, May 13 against Oakland and August 14 against Detroit. If you remove those three outings from his ledger, you get a more respectable 3.23 ERA. Of course you can play that game with anyone, but Borowski's not as bad as it first appears.
Borowski isn't the main reason to be concerned about the Indians bullpen. They have Rafael Betancourt setting him up, and he's been flat out dominant all season. His HR+, BB+, and K+ are all off the charts good. Opponents hit .183/.197/.277 against him this season. He's probably pitching over his head, but he's been a solid reliever for a few years now (career ERA of 2.80).
The other primary reason that the Indians' bullpen should concern us as Yankee fans are the lefties they'll be carrying.
Their primary lefty reliever is Rafael Perez. He throws a 92-94 mph fastball and a nasty slider, and has been nasty this season. He's not just a lefty killer, as he's pitched 60.2 innings in 44 games after getting called up from Buffalo where he was a starter. Betancourt and Perez are a sick combo to set up Borowski.
Aaron Fultz has bounced around a bit, and has been fairly pedestrian, but he has done well against lefties.
The third lefty that the Indians will carry in the bullpen is Aaron Laffey, who they've used exclusively as a starter. His splits against lefties aren't very good, but as the third man on the depth chart that shouldn't matter that much since he probably wouldn't have to be used in high-leverage situations.
Here's how the three lefties splits look for 2007 and over their careers.
| Pitcher | Split | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Fultz | 2007 | vs RHB | 79 | 68 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 16 | .265 | .342 | .353 |
| vs LHB | 79 | 68 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | .191 | .291 | .338 | ||
| Career | vs RHB | 1227 | 1072 | 295 | 65 | 7 | 39 | 121 | 223 | .275 | .350 | .458 | |
| vs LHB | 830 | 728 | 172 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 66 | 171 | .236 | .303 | .349 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | vs RHB | 144 | 136 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 40 | .217 | .257 | .324 |
| vs LHB | 92 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 22 | .145 | .209 | .241 | ||
| Career | vs RHB | 173 | 162 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 48 | .222 | .272 | .352 | |
| vs LHB | 119 | 106 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | .142 | .214 | .217 | ||
| Laffey | 2007 | vs RHB | 139 | 129 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | .271 | .304 | .357 |
| vs LHB | 68 | 59 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | .322 | .412 | .458 |
Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis round out the Indians pen. Mastny's nothing special. Lewis has been great in his major league debut but his projections coming into the season weren't very impressive.
Overall this season, Cleveland's bullpen ranked fourth in the AL in ERA at 3.75. Late inning comebacks will be hard to come by in this series for the Yankees.
Here's the Yankee pen minus the 11th pitcher that they will announce at some point.
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| Closer | Rivera | 2007 | 67 | 71.3 | 68 | 4 | 25 | 25 | 12 | 74 | .248 | .285 | .350 |
| Proj | 67 | 75 | 62 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 69 | .224 | .263 | .300 | ||
| Setup | Chamberlain | 2007 | 19 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 34 | .145 | .200 | .229 |
| Proj | 44 | 49 | 32 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 63 | .180 | .245 | .279 | ||
| Middle | Vizcaino | 2007 | 77 | 75.3 | 66 | 6 | 38 | 37 | 44 | 62 | .235 | .301 | .384 |
| Proj | 72 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 35 | 61 | .237 | .300 | .398 | ||
| Farnsworth | 2007 | 64 | 60 | 60 | 9 | 35 | 32 | 27 | 48 | .256 | .327 | .415 | |
| Proj | 69 | 64 | 58 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 67 | .237 | .309 | .376 | ||
| Villone | 2007 | 37 | 42.3 | 36 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 25 | .234 | .324 | .344 | |
| Proj | 57 | 66 | 59 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 36 | 54 | .241 | .327 | .367 | ||
| Hughes | 2007 | 13 | 73 | 64 | 8 | 39 | 36 | 29 | 58 | .235 | .310 | .386 | |
| Proj | 13 | 73 | 67 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 26 | 59 | .246 | .310 | .397 | ||
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | ||
| Closer | Rivera | 2007 | 53% | 21% | 19% | 3.16 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 2.64 | 194 | 210 | 147 | .184 |
| Proj | 56% | 21% | 15% | 2.43 | 2.25 | 2.45 | 2.58 | 265 | 209 | 139 | .281 | ||
| Setup | Chamberlain | 2007 | 38% | 28% | 24% | 0.75 | 0.38 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 255 | 144 | 229 | .556 |
| Proj | 38% | 28% | 24% | 2.02 | 1.84 | 2.12 | 2.40 | 172 | 104 | 188 | .333 | ||
| Middle | Vizcaino | 2007 | 37% | 34% | 20% | 4.54 | 4.42 | 3.98 | 4.41 | 147 | 65 | 108 | .018 |
| Proj | 42% | 31% | 17% | 4.12 | 3.99 | 3.71 | 4.10 | 92 | 58 | 115 | .064 | ||
| Farnsworth | 2007 | 30% | 43% | 18% | 5.25 | 4.80 | 4.90 | 4.88 | 78 | 84 | 106 | -.056 | |
| Proj | 36% | 35% | 18% | 4.43 | 4.09 | 3.61 | 4.04 | 99 | 85 | 146 | .030 | ||
| Villone | 2007 | 37% | 31% | 22% | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.83 | 4.65 | 92 | 83 | 83 | .058 | |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 19% | 4.93 | 4.52 | 3.72 | 4.54 | 123 | 74 | 113 | -.028 | ||
| Hughes | 2007 | 38% | 32% | 22% | 4.83 | 4.46 | 3.72 | 4.31 | 108 | 84 | 115 | -.073 | |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 22% | 4.31 | 3.98 | 3.82 | 4.04 | 101 | 100 | 113 | .249 |
Unlike the Indians, the Yankees don't have depth in their bullpen. Mariano Rivera had a down year by his lofty standards, but he was still very effective, and his peripherals are all solid. He gave up more line drives this year, and more hits in general, but there's no reason to be concerned about him.
Joba Chamberlain. Man, myth, legend. We like Joba so much we sponsored his Baseball Reference page. The Joba rules are out the window for the postseason with the importance of the games and the added off days, so expect to see him late in any games the Yankees are leading.
It's been a tale of three seasons for Luis Vizcaino. From April 2 through June 2, Vizcaino pitched 27 innings and had an ERA of 7.33. Opponents hit .248/.381/.436 against him. From June 3 to August 29 Vizcaino pitched 40.1 innings with 1.12 ERA. He fanned 37 while opponents hit .181/.268/.264 against him. In September he struggled due to fatigue and was shut down several times. In 8 September innings he allowed 15 hits and had an ERA of 10.13, and opponents hit .417/.464/.722. Hopefully the rest he's getting now will get him back to form.
Phil Hughes will be the primary long reliever in the bullpen, likely to pick up the slack should one of the starters get bombed. Hughes has not pitched out of the pen yet. He showed glimpses of the promise that he had in the minors over his last five outings, throwing 29.2 innings with an ERA of 2.73. Hughes beat Cleveland on Aug 10, going six strong innings and allowing just one run.
Kyle Farnsworth scares me. Thankfully, Chamberlain's emergence has removed him from the nominal 8th inning role. Ron Villone scares me too, although less so than Farnsworth. Villone was actually decent this year overall, he held opponents to a .234/.324/.344 and put up an ERA around league average. He really had only two bad outings this year, where he gave 8 runs over 2/3 of an inning. If we could take those out, he'd have had an ERA of 2.59. But we can't, so he doesn't.
I'm not sure who the sixth man will be. Based on usage patterns over the last week of the season I think it's going to be Jose Veras. I'm not sold on him because of his lack of command, but his stuff is pretty good so maybe he could surprise us. Edwar Ramirez looks like he's pitched his way off the roster. I still like Ramirez's chances of contributing in the future, but I don't think he's ready yet. Ross Ohlendorf could end up being the choice, and that's probably who I'd like to see go. He had an unimpressive season in AAA but he has looked good in the big league pen, with a good sinking fastball and a sharp slider, and he has better command than Veras.
The Yankee bullpen struggled most of the year, and were tenth in the league in ERA.
This is going to be a tough series for the Yankees to take. The Yankees are the better offensive team, but the Indians have better pitching. The defenses are comparable. I think it's going to be up to the Yankee starting pitchers getting deep enough in the games that they can go to Vizcaino, Chamberlain, and Mo. If that happens the Yanks should be in good shape. I won't predict what might happen, because I have no idea. After the way this season started, I'm just glad to see the Yanks playing in October right now. I'm sure I'll feel differently after the first pitch on Thursday though.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Picking the 2007 Postseason Roster
Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs, I can finally talk about the postseason roster. With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster. Here’s a look at the candidates, with the players on the bubble separated out.
Starting Pitchers(4)
Andy Pettitte
Roger Clemens
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Relief Pitchers(5)
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
Kyle Farnsworth
Luis Vizcaino
On the Bubble
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Tyler Clippard
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Sean Henn
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Ian Kennedy
Ross Ohlendorf
Edwar Ramirez
Catchers(2)
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada
Infielders(5)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Doug Mientkiewicz
Alex Rodriguez
Wilson Betemit
On the Bubble
Alberto Gonzalez
Outfielders (5)
Bobby Abreu
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Shelley Duncan
Hideki Matsui
On the Bubble
Bronson Sardinha
Designated Hitters(1)
Jason Giambi
There are 22 players I consider locks to make the roster, four starting pitchers, five relievers, two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders, and one DH. That gives the Yanks three slots to fill. If it were up to me, I’d take two more pitchers and one position player.
The position player seems like an easy choice to me, if choosing between Alberto Gonzalez or Bronson Sardinha I’d take the more valuable defensive player. Either can pinch-run, but Gonzalez gives the Yankees a little more depth in case of multiple injuries to their starting infielders.
The pitching situation is a little less clear-cut. Phil Hughes slots in as a long reliever, but the rest of the choices are mainly short relievers and that’s a concern with a gimpy Roger Clemens and Mike “Box of Chocolates” Mussina taking two starts. Because of this, one of the extra relievers should probably be someone who can pitch multiple innings. Out of the players on the bubble, the best choices for that kind of role in my mind are Kei Igawa or Ron Villone. Neither inspires much confidence, but we have to remember that you don’t have to win every single game in the playoffs, you just have to win 3 or 4 before your opponent does. If Clemens can’t go past the second inning, odds are the game is lost but you don’t want to have to burn out your bullpen either. The off days built into the schedule mitigate that to some degree. The other thing the Yankees should do is break up Pettitte and Wang. Since they’ll be starting on the road, I’d start Pettitte in game one, Clemens in game two, and Wang in game three at home. However, to be safe I think the Yankees should take Igawa. I know he hasn’t been good this year, but he could come into a game in the early innings and pitch 5 or 6 innings and put the Yankees in a position to win the next game. Now all the readers can proceed to tell me I’m insane.
That leaves one other pitcher to take. Ian Kennedy’s hurt so scratch him. Realistically it comes down to taking one of Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Villone, Ross Ohlendorf or Edwar Ramirez.
Britton - had success in the AL East last year and did well in AAA this season. For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to be well-regarded by the organization right now, and his stuff isn’t really that great for a short reliever.
Bruney - You know the deal with this guy. Great fastball, horrendous command.
Veras - See Bruney, although with a slightly better breaking pitch. I swear I have not seen Veras hit the catcher’s target on a single pitch yet this season.
Villone - Chock full of veterany-goodness. Hasn’t been horrible this year, but his control scares the hell out of me and he has a very high likelihood to implode in any given outing.
Ohlendorf - He’s looked pretty good so far in the majors, but it’s only been three innings. He’s got good stuff but his minor league numbers are pretty bad, but he was injured for much of the year and converted from a starter to a reliever so that should be considered.
Ramirez - I was pulling like hell for Edwar to come up the majors and succeed, but he still needs to work on his approach IMO. Until he can consistently get ahead in the count and make optimal use of his killer changeup, I wouldn’t have any faith in him in a tight spot. He does have strikeout ability (29 Ks in 19.3 innings), but he also has giving up HR ability (6 in 19.3 innings). He’s probably pitched himself off the postseason roster at this point.
Not a very inspiring bunch. I’d imagine we’ll get a healthy dose of all of these guys over the last four games of the year to see if one becomes a hot hand. I find Ohlendorf the most intriguing of this group, so he’d probably be my pick.
I’d like to see what other people would do instead of me, so let’s hear it…
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Yankees 4, Boston 3
Clemens was great. Mo was great. Farnsworth was not.
Sorry for the continued Internal Server Errors. We are trying to figure them out.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Farnsworth and Google
It’s always interesting to see where people surf into this site from.
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Trade Winds Swirling
Lots of rumors out there, which probably doesn't mean anything. I personally feel that any trades the Yankees make now which do not make them younger and better prepared for 2008 on are like putting a Band Aid on a gunshot wound. This team stinks, and adding a short reliever or a bench player isn't going to change that fact.Anyway: NY Post: FARNSWORTH, PROCTOR ARE LIKELY CHIPS
If the Yankees make a trade before Tuesday afternoon's deadline it's highly likely that Kyle Farnsworth and or Scott Proctor will be in it. And even if they aren't moved, neophyte Joba Chamberlain is a solid bet to be added to the bullpen mix as early as Tuesday.
I'd rather see Farnsworth moved than Proctor, but Proctor would bring back the better return.
Sherman: METS, YANKS AFTER GAGNE
The Yankees and Mets join the Red Sox as the teams still trying to land Rangers closer Eric Gagne as the trade deadline nears, The Post has learned.
Yeah, because the Yankees' biggest need is an 8th inning reliever who missed most of the last two seasons with arm injuries and who is even more fragile than Farnsworth. Gagne's rebuilt arm would never be able to withstand the Yankees' setup role, although considering how much the Yankees stink he probably wouldn't have to pitch all that much.
Heyman: Kei to the Mariners?
Word is, the Mariners were considering making a run at Kei Igawa, but their interest appears to have cooled after watching Igawa's latest disappointment, a four-inning outing in a 7-0 defeat to the Royals. While Igawa's been a disaster, the Yankees would want any acquiring team to pay part of the $26 million posting fee.
Finally, a trade rumor that has my complete and unconditional approval.
As you probably know, the Yankees lost to Baltimore again, 7-5 last night. It wasn't that close, the Yankees only managed to score when the Orioles put in a kid to close out a laugher. The Yankees are 2-6 against the Orioles this season. It was pretty fitting that the Yankees' rally fell short due to Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu, as they are two of the biggest reasons the team has underachieved this year.
In wins this season, Damon is hitting .280/.394/.402 in 226 plate appearances. In losses, he's hitting .192/.270/.253 in 163 PA. Yep, in the games the Yankees have lost, the player who's been in the position to get the most plate appearances on the team in the games he starts is hitting .192/.270/.253. .192/.270/.253. In 1 and 2 run losses, Damon's hit .216/.341/.311 in 88 PA. Thanks for nothing Johnny.
Update: In the interest of full disclosure. Here's a look at the primary starters in wins and losses. As bad as Damon has been in losses, Bobby Abreu has been the player with the biggest disparity between his performances in Yankee wins and Yankee losses.
| Player | W/L | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HB | DP | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR+/- | per 650 | Ratio |
| Abreu | W | 247 | 214 | 55 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 48 | 27 | 31 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 4 | .364 | .449 | .547 | .996 | 15 | 40 | 3.98 |
| Abreu | L | 204 | 179 | 17 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | .151 | .255 | .212 | .467 | -16 | -51 | |
| Cabrera | W | 210 | 180 | 31 | 59 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | .328 | .390 | .439 | .829 | 3 | 9 | 1.49 |
| Cabrera | L | 161 | 145 | 9 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | .234 | .304 | .352 | .656 | -5 | -21 | |
| Cano | W | 235 | 217 | 41 | 78 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 11 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | .359 | .409 | .562 | .971 | 11 | 32 | 2.29 |
| Cano | L | 191 | 179 | 13 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .223 | .272 | .318 | .591 | -9 | -32 | |
| Damon | W | 226 | 189 | 44 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 35 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | .280 | .398 | .402 | .800 | 5 | 14 | 2.24 |
| Damon | L | 163 | 146 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | .192 | .276 | .253 | .529 | -10 | -39 | |
| Jeter | W | 265 | 236 | 50 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 22 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 3 | .377 | .438 | .517 | .955 | 14 | 35 | 1.65 |
| Jeter | L | 212 | 189 | 16 | 51 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 29 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | .270 | .344 | .376 | .720 | -4 | -11 | |
| Matsui | W | 222 | 195 | 43 | 68 | 15 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 23 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .349 | .428 | .595 | 1.023 | 15 | 44 | 1.66 |
| Matsui | L | 178 | 157 | 21 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | .223 | .315 | .414 | .729 | -2 | -6 | |
| Posada | W | 217 | 181 | 38 | 58 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 30 | 36 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | .320 | .433 | .536 | .969 | 12 | 36 | 1.12 |
| Posada | L | 176 | 161 | 15 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .342 | .398 | .491 | .888 | 6 | 23 | |
| Rodriguez | W | 252 | 205 | 68 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 27 | 82 | 33 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 2 | .341 | .464 | .805 | 1.269 | 33 | 85 | 1.74 |
| Rodriguez | L | 209 | 177 | 29 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 27 | 45 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | .260 | .373 | .458 | .831 | 5 | 14 | |
| W/L | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RB | BB | SO | HB | DP | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | BR+/- | Ratio | |||
| Total | W | 1874 | 1617 | 370 | 553 | 111 | 13 | 68 | 346 | 199 | 224 | 29 | 36 | 47 | 18 | .342 | .427 | .553 | .980 | 109 | 1.79 | |
| Total | L | 1494 | 1333 | 132 | 316 | 65 | 4 | 30 | 118 | 135 | 263 | 11 | 40 | 24 | 5 | .237 | .318 | .359 | .677 | -35 |
BR+/-: Batting runs above average (not position-adjusted) using linear weights
per 650: BR+/- pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
Ratio: BR+/- per plate appearance in wins divided by BR+/- per plate appearance in losses. The higher the ratio, the bigger the disparity.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
NY Daily News: Joe mulls yanking Farnsworth
Torre said he discussed the possibility of “flip-flopping” Farnsworth and Vizcaino earlier this season, but scrapped it because the latter was struggling during his adjustment to New York following a trade from Arizona. “(Farnsworth) was fine with it then,” Torre said, “and if that’s what we decide to do, it’s not going to be an issue.”
While Vizcaino since has gained Torre’s late-game trust with a 1.18 ERA over his past 25 appearances, Farnsworth has become a target of incessant boos from an impatient fan base after allowing at least one baserunner in 17 of his past 18 appearances since June 1. Included in that stretch, he showed up Torre after being removed from one recent game, staged a dugout tirade following another and was fined for missing an early workout the day after the All-Star break.
Gears. Moving. Slowly.
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Despite Kyle
With the New York Yankees heading into the top of the eighth inning in a 1-1 tie against the Toronto Blue Jays, Joe Torre once again went to Kyle Farnsworth in last night’s game. He promptly gave up single to Frank Thomas followed by a throwing error to first on a pick off attempt that allowed pinch runner Howie Clark to move to second. It was at this point that Yankee fans collectively moaned, “Here we go again.” And for good reason. After getting Overbay to line out, Farnsworth surrendered a hard line drive double to left field off of Aaron Hill’s bat which scored the go ahead run for the Blue Jays. The Yankees were able to get two runners on with two outs in the bottom of the inning but Cano’s struggles with RISP continued as he struck out swinging to end the threat.
At that point, it seemed like the Yankees were going to lose a tough game again, wasting another well pitched start from Pettitte. But in the bottom of the ninth, the Jays pretty much handed over their lead by allowing two singles, two stolen bases, and a balk to tie up the game (and throw in a play at the plate which didn’t go the Yankees way). Two ground outs from Jeter and Abreu would move the game into extra frames. Vizcaino would pitch an effective top half of the 10th allowing only one base runner and striking out Greg Zaun to end the inning. The Blue Jays would then get retaliation against Ha-Rod by beaning him to give the Yankees a lead off runner. A-Rod would move to second on a wild pitch and then, after Matsui struckout, the Jays would walk Posada to get to Robinson Cano. Despite some guy in the Liveblog thread claiming that “Robby just can’t hit in big spots,” the Yankee second basemen sliced a game winning, walk off single to end the game.
The Yankees have started to win the games they couldn’t win in the first half of the season; that is, close games. Since the All-Star Break, the Yankees have won five out of six games, the last four of those wins by two runs or less. Now, we would all prefer the Yankees to win every game by 5+ runs, but sometimes you happen to face a pretty darn good pitcher. After a shaky first inning Halladay was pretty much lights out, giving up 5 hits and 3 walks in his 7 innings of work. Pettitte did everything the Yankees could have asked him to do by keeping the team in the game through 7 innings. While he wouldn’t factor into the decision, his performance was a big part of the win. The Yankees will need many more of these outings if they hope to make the playoffs, especially when facing off against studs like Roy Halladay.
Perhaps lost in the hoopla of the walk-off win was the fact that Johnny Damon continues to struggle at the plate. He’s hitless in his last 3 games going 0 for 11 and dropping his line to .238/.339/.330. Equally bad in his last 3 games has been Bobby Abreu. Bobby is 0 for his last 13 with 4 Ks, including an 0-5 night at the plate tonight. The Yankees can’t afford one dead bat in the top of the order, let alone two. If they are going to keep this current hot streak going, Abreu will need to get back on his game and Damon will either have to be dropped down in the lineup or go on the DL, if he is indeed still hurting.
Nonetheless, the Yankees are starting to show some of that fire that we used to see a lot of prior to this season. They won a game in which they faced a great pitcher and which they were losing after 8 innings. They showed heart and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Tonight, the Yankees can celebrate a great comeback win….despite Kyle.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
2007 Yankee Defense at the All Star Break
Wrapping up my All Star Break review of the Yankees so far, here's how their defense rates by zone rating. If you want to read a good explanation about zone rating, you should read this article by Chris Dial, but I am going to run through an example as well, to try and clarify exactly what the numbers that will follow mean.I could pick on Derek Jeter, but I'm not going to go there. Instead I'm going to look at the brightest spot on the Yankee defense so far, Robinson Cano. We all know Cano's been a disappointment on offense, but let's look at his defense.
To help clarify the numbers I'm about to run through, here's the Stats Inc. Zone Rating grid, with the 2B area of responsiblity highlighted.
Any ball hit in that highlighted area that is converted into an out at least 50% of the time is considered a fieldable chance for a second baseman. This is based on observation by Stats Inc. scorers, but there are three people scoring these at every game and they score them independently to help cut down on subjectivity.
When a fielder has a ball hit into their zone of responsiblity, they are given a fieldable chance, which is the denominator in ZR. When they convert that into an out, it's considered a play made. When a fielder makes a play that is not his defined zone, it gets added to his chances and plays made so they get credit for it. The question is if they get enough credit for doing so, which is one limitation of zone rating. Another limitation is the zones of responsiblity are fixed, and do not account for positioning. This is a limitation when trying to assess a player's actual talent, but as far as their value in any given time, I don't think it's much of one. If a player is not put into position to make more plays than he is, that means they are not as valuable to their team as they should be, regardless of who is responsible for the positioning.
ZR is expressed as a three digit decimal from 0 to 1, and it's just plays made divided by fieldable chances. So if a player has 10 fieldable chances hit into his defined zone and converts 8 of them into outs, his ZR is .800. Plays are either made or not made in ZR. If a player makes an error, it's no worse than if their range never let them get to the ball in the first place.
So let's get back to Cano. Cano has played 84 games this season, and 747 defensive innings at second base. He has seen 274 fieldable chances, and has a ZR of .880. So we multiply his fieldable chances by .880 to get his plays made, which is 241.
The next thing we do is multiply the chances that Cano has had times the average ZR, to get an average plays made. This assumes that the types of chances a player faces over the course of a period are the same, and it's not necessarily true. Players could have stretches where they face easier chances or more difficult chances, which is why you will see players' defensive numbers fluctuate from season. Again, I consider this a limitation when trying to assess a player's ability, but not their value. This is the type of thing that should even out over time, which makes multi-year zone rating a decent gauge of a player's defensive talent.
In the American League, the average 2B has a ZR of .831. I separate the leagues because I've noticed systemic differences in the infields, and I assume it's at least partly due to pitchers "hitting." So, using the .831 avg ZR times Cano's 274 chances, we get an average plays made of 228. We subtract this from Cano's actual plays made to get a difference. 241 - 228 = 13, so Cano has converted 13 more plays into outs than average. This difference is then multiplied by the average run value of a play at that position, which was calculated by Dial and is based on the linear weights values of the single or XBH that the play would turn into if it is not made, as well as the marginal value of the out that was not recorded.
Here are the run values for the average plays at each position.
POS RV
1B: .798
2B: .754
3B: .800
CF: .842
LF: .831
RF: .843
SS: .753
For 2B, the average play is worth .754 runs, so we multiply that by Cano's +13 plays made and get a runs saved above average of 10. To calculate this over a full season, you just divide the runs saved by the innings played and multiply by 1440 innings.
Credit for this methodology goes to Chris Dial and his article Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Zone Rating and to Chone Smith and his article Tweaking Zone Rating. Without them breaking zone rating down this clearly for me I never would have been able to understand it.
The same basic idea is used for figuring out all players except pitchers and catchers, and here are the numbers for the Yanks.
| Player | TM | LG | Pos | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | DP | Ch | PM | ZR | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 84 | 84 | 747 | 178 | 271 | 6 | 78 | 274 | 241 | .880 | .831 | 228 | 13 | 10 | 19 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 83 | 83 | 724 | 63 | 149 | 5 | 15 | 207 | 168 | .812 | .762 | 158 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | CF | 59 | 48 | 445 | 154 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 152 | .916 | .889 | 148 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | LF | 18 | 16 | 142 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 31 | .912 | .872 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 3B | 7 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | .900 | .762 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 45 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | SS | 8 | 2 | 36.2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | .889 | .824 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 35 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1.000 | .859 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | .859 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Giambi, Jason | NYY | AL | 1B | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | .842 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | .762 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 0 | 4.1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieves, Wil | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .762 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | CF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .889 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | SS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .824 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | LF | 4 | 1 | 13.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | .833 | .872 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -21 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 1B | 13 | 10 | 90.1 | 85 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 16 | 13 | .813 | .842 | 13 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | .750 | .831 | 7 | -1 | 0 | -41 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | LF | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .872 | 3 | -1 | -1 | -57 |
| Phelps, Josh | NYY | AL | 1B | 29 | 20 | 162.2 | 167 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 22 | .815 | .842 | 23 | -1 | -1 | -5 |
| Abreu, Bobby | NYY | AL | RF | 84 | 81 | 720 | 156 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 156 | .852 | .859 | 157 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .872 | 3 | -2 | -1 | -215 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | CF | 41 | 38 | 318 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 104 | .874 | .889 | 106 | -2 | -1 | -7 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | NYY | AL | 1B | 48 | 36 | 330.1 | 353 | 14 | 2 | 46 | 59 | 47 | .797 | .842 | 50 | -3 | -2 | -9 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 1B | 21 | 17 | 155.1 | 161 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 42 | 32 | .762 | .842 | 35 | -3 | -3 | -25 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYY | AL | LF | 68 | 67 | 586.1 | 131 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 127 | .836 | .872 | 132 | -5 | -5 | -11 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 84 | 83 | 726.1 | 128 | 246 | 13 | 69 | 295 | 227 | .769 | .824 | 243 | -16 | -12 | -24 |
| Total | 678 | 601 | 5345.2 | 1765 | 748 | 42 | 261 | 1633 | 1370 | .839 | .840 | 1371 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
Legend
INN - Innings
PO - Putouts
A - Assists
E - Errors
DP - Double plays
Ch - Fieldable chances
PM - Plays made
ZR - Zone Rating
AvgZR - Average ZR
AvgPM - Average PM
Diff - PM minus AvgPM
RS - Runs saved
RS/162 - Runs saved pro-rated to 162 games
So yeah, Cano's been great. Also great, Alex Rodriguez, who has rebounded from two sub-par years at third after a solid 2004 defensively. Melky's flashing a plus glove in LF and CF and this doesn't even include his arm.
The rest of the numbers seem to match my observations pretty well, although I'd have pegged Abreu to be a little worse and Matsui to be a bit better. This is part of the reason I've grown fond of zone rating. It's freely available, it's easy to convert to runs, and for the most part the players I think are good and bad defenders show up as such in ZR.
These numbers are not meant to be an absolute assessment of either a players' defensive ability or value. First of all, we're dealing with a small sample size. The difference between Jeter being average or horrible is about one play a week. Second of all, as I've listed above, there are limitations in zone rating which need to be acknowledged and understood. Over at Bronx Banter the other day there was a heated discussion about defensive metrics and their pros and cons. The way I described it to someone over there is this. Let's say you have a group of hitters, and the only thing you know about him is their batting averages. Would you prefer to use your visual observations of the players' abilities and whether they have good at bats, or would you rather use batting average to determine their skill at least partially, even acknowledging that batting average has limitations? That's kind of where I think defensive metrics should fall into place.
For catchers, I use a combination of passed balls and stolen base percentage. It's not a great method because pitchers deserve some of the blame for stolen bases, but again, if we think of it in terms of value instead of ability it's better than nothing.
| NAME | GP | GS | INN | TC | PO | A | E | DP | FPCT | PB | SB | CS | CS% | CERA | RS | RS/150 |
| Jorge Posada, NYY | 77 | 68 | 621 | 427 | 394 | 30 | 3 | 2 | .993 | 3 | 61 | 19 | 0.24 | 4.42 | -3 | -7 |
| Wil Nieves, NYY | 21 | 18 | 142 | 105 | 99 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .990 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.23 | 4.12 | -1 | -5 |
| Josh Phelps, NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Posada's defense has typically been average or slightly below, but he was great last year. He's back below average this year, but he's hitting more than well enough to compensate. Wil Nieves has a wonderful smile, which is apparently all he needs to have to be the Yankees' backup catcher.
With the pitching, offense and defense all assessed it's time to see where everyone on the Yankees ranks in terms of overall value, so here you go.
| Last | BR | DR | PR | TR |
| Rodriguez | 33 | 8 | 42 | |
| Wang | 18 | 18 | ||
| Posada | 19 | -3 | 16 | |
| Bruney | 8 | 8 | ||
| Cano | -2 | 10 | 8 | |
| Myers | 7 | 7 | ||
| Clemens | 6 | 6 | ||
| Matsui | 8 | -5 | 4 | |
| Rivera | 3 | 3 | ||
| Villone | 3 | 3 | ||
| Jeter | 15 | -12 | 2 | |
| Pettitte | 2 | 2 | ||
| Hughes | 2 | 2 | ||
| Britton | 2 | 2 | ||
| Giambi | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Proctor | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cabrera | -5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Mussina | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ramirez | 0 | 0 | ||
| Phillips | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Basak | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rasner | -1 | -1 | ||
| Thompson | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Pavano | -1 | -1 | ||
| Henn | -1 | -1 | ||
| Farnsworth | -1 | -1 | ||
| Bean | -2 | -2 | ||
| Wright | -3 | -3 | ||
| Vizcaino | -3 | -3 | ||
| Desalvo | -3 | -3 | ||
| Phelps | -3 | -1 | -4 | |
| Clippard | -4 | -4 | ||
| Karstens | -5 | -5 | ||
| Damon | -4 | -3 | -6 | |
| Cairo | -5 | -2 | -7 | |
| Abreu | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Nieves | -7 | -1 | -8 | |
| Mientkiewicz | -6 | -2 | -8 | |
| Igawa | -13 | -13 | ||
| Total | 38 | -6 | 15 | 47 |
BR = Batting runs
DR = Defensive runs
PR = Pitching runs
TR = Total runs
I'd take Bruney and Myers's high ranking with a big grain of salt. It may be better to use a linear weights type formula for relievers' value to the team since ERA or RA can hide their performances with inherited runners.
I was surprised to see that Cano's defense makes him such a plus contributor, but I guess that's the case at least by this methodology. If you want to get angry, you can figure out how much the "contributions" of Abreu, Mientkiewicz and Igawa have cost the team this year.
Monday, July 9, 2007
Yankee Pitching at the All Star Break
I'm still mad about Saturday's game, but we must soldier on I guess. Anyway, the All Star Break is a good time to catch up on the team's performances to this point. I think I've been neglecting pitching this season because of how much "fun" it's been harping on the offense and defense, so today I'm going to look at the pitching staff so far. First, here are the Yankees pitchers sorted by most valuable to least valuable by runs saved above average. Read after the chart for explanations of all the columns.| Last | RSAA | G | IP | Hit | HR | BB | K | ERA | RA | FIP | ERC | ERA+ |
| Wang | 18 | 15 | 104.3 | 98 | 6 | 27 | 48 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.98 | 3.53 | 128 |
| Bruney | 8 | 39 | 35 | 28 | 2 | 25 | 27 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 4.69 | 3.70 | 168 |
| Myers | 7 | 41 | 31 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 5.04 | 3.57 | 165 |
| Clemens | 6 | 7 | 39.7 | 34 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.87 | 3.00 | 119 |
| Rivera | 3 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.15 | 3.09 | 116 |
| Villone | 3 | 14 | 19.3 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.78 | 2.28 | 132 |
| Pettitte | 2 | 20 | 112.3 | 127 | 8 | 34 | 62 | 4.25 | 4.73 | 4.00 | 4.40 | 102 |
| Hughes | 2 | 2 | 10.7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 3.37 | 3.37 | 2.33 | 1.80 | 128 |
| Britton | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 5.67 | 0.91 | 240 |
| Proctor | 1 | 45 | 47.7 | 40 | 4 | 24 | 34 | 3.59 | 4.34 | 4.38 | 3.52 | 120 |
| Mussina | 0 | 14 | 78 | 83 | 10 | 17 | 49 | 4.62 | 4.85 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 93 |
| Ramirez | 0 | 2 | 2.3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 2.41 | 5.32 | 112 |
| Rasner | -1 | 6 | 24.7 | 29 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 4.01 | 5.11 | 5.70 | 5.12 | 108 |
| Pavano | -1 | 2 | 11.3 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4.76 | 5.56 | 4.24 | 3.86 | 91 |
| Henn | -1 | 17 | 19.3 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 4.66 | 5.12 | 5.28 | 3.62 | 93 |
| Farnsworth | -1 | 37 | 34.3 | 38 | 3 | 16 | 23 | 4.46 | 4.98 | 4.46 | 4.20 | 97 |
| Bean | -2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 6.93 | 8.16 | 36 |
| Wright | -3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7.88 | 7.88 | 12.14 | 9.85 | 55 |
| Vizcaino | -3 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 3 | 31 | 29 | 5.02 | 5.23 | 4.29 | 4.21 | 86 |
| Desalvo | -3 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 5.87 | 6.26 | 6.35 | 6.30 | 74 |
| Clippard | -4 | 6 | 27 | 29 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 6.33 | 6.33 | 6.60 | 5.81 | 68 |
| Karstens | -5 | 2 | 4.3 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14.54 | 14.54 | 7.19 | 10.79 | 30 |
| Igawa | -13 | 9 | 46.7 | 52 | 11 | 23 | 33 | 7.14 | 7.33 | 6.59 | 5.84 | 60 |
| Total | 15 | 366.0 | 763.9 | 760 | 80 | 305 | 466 | 4.36 | 4.62 | 4.66 | 4.32 | 98 |
RSAA is runs saved above average, which I calculate by subracting the pitcher's runs allowed average from the league average runs allowed average, dividing by nine and then multiplying times innings pitched. Starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers, as relievers collectively have an RA of about .5 runs less than starters.
RA is just the equivalent of ERA, but includes unearned runs.
FIP is Tango Tiger's Fielding Independent Pitching, which is calculated using the formula 13 times HR plus 3 times BB + HBP - 2 times K divided by IP. 3.2 is added to that to give a # that should closely match ERA. The idea here is to regress a pitcher's batting average on balls in play to average by focusing on his peripherals. If you see a big difference between a pitcher's FIP and his ERA, you should expect them to move closer to each other if he continues to pitch the way he has to this point.
ERC is Component ERA. Kind of like FIP, it looks a player's components to see if their results match their actual performance. The one difference is it uses a pitcher's actual hit rate, so it does not penalize pitchers who do happen to have the ability to suppress hits on balls in play.
| Last | LD% | GB% | FB% | BABIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | BF | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Wang | 18.0% | 58.7% | 23.2% | .277 | 181 | 133 | 69 | 418 | 383 | .256 | .311 | .366 |
| Bruney | 17.5% | 29.9% | 52.9% | .268 | 200 | 53 | 105 | 154 | 122 | .230 | .364 | .328 |
| Myers | 15.7% | 61.8% | 22.1% | .238 | 113 | 93 | 60 | 131 | 114 | .237 | .313 | .368 |
| Clemens | 20.7% | 50.0% | 29.2% | .261 | 103 | 135 | 110 | 158 | 147 | .231 | .278 | .347 |
| Rivera | 16.3% | 53.1% | 30.6% | .309 | 120 | 238 | 138 | 139 | 130 | .254 | .288 | .346 |
| Villone | 16.4% | 36.1% | 47.7% | .217 | 203 | 111 | 69 | 78 | 69 | .203 | .282 | .261 |
| Pettitte | 18.4% | 49.3% | 32.3% | .321 | 155 | 120 | 78 | 476 | 434 | .293 | .340 | .417 |
| Hughes | 15.4% | 57.7% | 26.9% | .269 | inf | 88 | 161 | 41 | 37 | .189 | .268 | .216 |
| Britton | 14.3% | 28.6% | 57.1% | .000 | 44 | 146 | 71 | 17 | 16 | .063 | .118 | .250 |
| Proctor | 16.0% | 28.5% | 56.0% | .252 | 134 | 74 | 99 | 207 | 174 | .230 | .319 | .356 |
| Mussina | 20.6% | 39.9% | 39.5% | .295 | 85 | 164 | 90 | 326 | 298 | .279 | .316 | .446 |
| Ramirez | 0.0% | 66.7% | 25.0% | .500 | inf | 86 | 240 | 10 | 7 | .286 | .400 | .429 |
| Rasner | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | .291 | 72 | 119 | 59 | 111 | 100 | .290 | .351 | .470 |
| Pavano | 17.9% | 46.2% | 34.9% | .282 | 119 | 197 | 52 | 46 | 44 | .273 | .304 | .409 |
| Henn | 13.6% | 42.4% | 44.1% | .237 | 114 | 58 | 89 | 88 | 73 | .219 | .341 | .343 |
| Farnsworth | 19.0% | 33.6% | 48.0% | .310 | 135 | 83 | 88 | 156 | 138 | .275 | .353 | .384 |
| Bean | 8.3% | 58.3% | 33.3% | .417 | inf | 33 | 63 | 19 | 14 | .357 | .526 | .500 |
| Wright | 14.3% | 25.0% | 58.7% | .217 | 21 | 57 | 90 | 40 | 34 | .294 | .400 | .794 |
| Vizcaino | 20.8% | 35.4% | 43.4% | .259 | 169 | 54 | 89 | 195 | 159 | .233 | .354 | .384 |
| Desalvo | 17.6% | 37.6% | 44.6% | .294 | 145 | 60 | 32 | 112 | 91 | .297 | .411 | .495 |
| Clippard | 6.7% | 39.3% | 54.3% | .277 | 54 | 62 | 87 | 124 | 107 | .271 | .371 | .505 |
| Karstens | 35.0% | 25.0% | 41.7% | .454 | 68 | 111 | 23 | 26 | 23 | .478 | .500 | .696 |
| Igawa | 18.7% | 31.0% | 50.5% | .283 | 51 | 80 | 92 | 215 | 189 | .275 | .363 | .519 |
| Total | 17.9% | 43.6% | 38.5% | .288 | 127 | 110 | 85 | 3287 | 2903 | .269 | .334 | .417 |
LD%, GB%, and FB% are the percentage of balls in play that a pitcher allows that end up as line drives, ground balls, or fly balls, respectively.
BABIP is batting average on balls in play. This looks at all balls in a play that a pitcher gives up and what ratio they become hits. The formula used is (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO + SF). The AL average this season is .300 on the nose. In theory, most pitchers should be close to that number, so most anyone who's above or below it has a probability of regressing towards it.
HR+, BB+, and K+ are my own numbers. These are similar to Baseball Reference's ERA+, in that they calculate a pitcher's HR allowed rate, walk allowed rate, and strikeout rate per batters faced as a ratio compared to league average. < 100 is below average, >100 is above average for all three. So if you look at Chien-Ming Wang, you see he prevents HRs at a rate 81% better than the average pitcher, walks 33% fewer, and strikes out 31% fewer. You have to love Chase Wright's 21 HR+.
BF is batters faced. AB is at bats by opposing hitters, and AVG, OBP, and SLG are what opposing hitters are hitting against the pitcher in question.
So what do all these numbers really mean?
First of all, Chien-Ming Wang rocks. He's been a win better than any Yankee pitcher despite missing a month. Yeah, he doesn't strike out a lot of people, but last year his K+ was 51, so he's improved significantly in that area this year. He's a master at keeping the ball in the park, and he pitches with good control. That has worked for Wang for 439 innings at the major league level now.
Brian Bruney's had a decent year as far as preventing runs, but his control is awful and he appears to have fallen out of favor in the bullpen pecking order. Bruney was released by Arizona for a reason, but he's still young enough to put it together. I wouldn't trust him over most of the rest of the pen right now though.
Mike Myers' has had what looks like a good year superficially, but he has failed at his job, which is to get out lefty hitters. Lefties are hitting .327/.410/.462, following up a line of .257/.297/.443 last year. Expect more of the same going forward. From what I can see, he's lost what little velocity he had and his slider is not as tough to hit as it used to be.
It's both a credit to Roger Clemens and an indictment of the rest of the team that he's been their fourth most valuable pitcher despite only starting six games. He's not throwing as hard as he used to, but he's succeeding. His K rate is still better than league average, and he's combining that with above average control and a good HR rate. He can probably pitch until he's 50.
Mariano Rivera's ERA is way out of line from what we are used to seeing, but he's been good recently. Over his last 24 games, he's pitched 27.1 innings and fanned 24 with a more Mo-like 1.65 ERA. He still doesn't look like MO to me, but he should be good going forward. His FIP and his component ERA both point to that as well. Interestingly, Rivera's already given up as many earned runs this year as he gave up in five full seasons in the past.
Everyone wants to dump Ron Villone, but he's been good at his role, pitching good baseball in low leverage spots. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him. I'd probably lose Myers before Villone.
Andy Pettitte has been brutal his last few starts, but you could argue that it should have been seen coming. He had a 2.51 ERA after his first 11 starts, but 23 BB and just 38 strikeouts, and having allowed 70 hits in 71 innings. Since then, he's got a putrid 7.30 ERA. For the first half overall, he's been a hair above average, and he's eaten innings for the team and helped rest the pen for the majority of his starts. He's right around where he was projected to be overall, even though he took a circuitous rout to get there. Let's hope he's just in a rut and not hurting.
Phil Hughes pitched twice. We hope to see him back by the end of the month. He makes his first rehab start today I think.
Chris Britton has done nothing in the majors or Scranton to warrant still being in Scranton.
Scott Proctor's been up and down. It looks like he's made an adjustment recently, using his slow curve to freeze hitters looking for his fastball, and so far it's working. As a durable reliever who can give the team average or better innings, he's a useful piece.
Mike Mussina started out crappy. He still doesn't look great stuff wise, but he's been getting results. Over his last six starts he's got a 2.87 ERA, over his last eight it's 3.49. Take out his first start of the year and he's got an ERA of 4.14. I was hoping for a repeat of 2006, but it looks more that we will see the 2004-2005 version of Moose, who is useful if not great. Moose's FIP and ERC seem to agree that he'll be ok going forward, but not great.
Edwar Ramirez is the last of the Yankee pitchers who has not been below average. He should get a few chances to show if he can handle the majors yet. He's a great story so I'll be pulling for him.
I won't go through everyone else on the list, but I'll touch on a few of 'em.
Pavano. Heh.
I have nothing good to say about Kyle Farnsworth. I'd love to see the Yankees dump him somewhere, for anything they could get.
Luis Vizcaino has been the best part of the Randy Johnson trade, which tells you how well that whole thing worked out. In his defense, he's pitched better of late although he's still got mediocre peripherals. Did you know Vizcaino already has 11 IBB this year? That really skews his numbers.
Kei Igawa. I expected a 5.00 ERA with hopes of a 4.00, and instead I've gotten a 7.14 ERA with hopes that he doesn't pitch any more. Igawa's K rate is passable, but his control has been poor, and his HR rate is off the charts bad. The league is hitting .275/.363/.519 against him. Eeesh.
Overall, the Yankee pitching staff has actually been a touch above average (15 RSAA overall). That's because even with a slightly below average ERA, they have allowed fewer unearned runs than average so fewer overall. Their team RA is 4.66 compared to the AL average of 4.80. That's the fairly good news. The bad news is that as a team they have the worst K rate in the league, with a K+ of 85.
I'll look at either the offense or defense tomorrow.
Update: A couple of links some of you may have interest in. Over at the Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe looks at a simulation of the 28 worst teams of all time. I helped Chris run these. No, the 2007 Yankees are not on the list, yet.
Also, Top Prospect Alert has posted their Top 100 prospects at midseason. Hughes is still considered a prospect, and they have him as #2 behind Justin Upton. Six Yankees make the grade, although one name is a bit surprising.
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Journal News: Proctor takes frustration out on his equipment
Lots of tidbits in today’s Journal News, mainly about the bullpen.
NEW YORK - Joe Torre wanted to get Scott Proctor back out on the mound for the Yankees yesterday against the A’s. Proctor hadn’t pitched since his ninth-inning loss in Baltimore on Tuesday, when he gave up a hit, two walks and another walk-off walk.
But the righty reliever let his manager down again. After coming in for Kei Igawa with none on, one out and the Yankees down four in the seventh, Proctor faced four batters. He served up two singles, got a fly out, then served up a booming two-run double to Nick Swisher before being pulled. Then he got charged with a third run when Mike Myers again provided no relief.
“I wouldn’t trust myself right now, not the way I’m throwing,” Proctor said after the 7-0 loss. “It’s pretty pathetic.”
A little while after he spoke, there was a small fire going just outside the dugout. Proctor was burning some of his equipment, according to an MLB.com report.
With the unreliability of Proctor and Myers, and Kyle Farnsworth no sure thing in the eighth, as evidenced by his 4.88 ERA, Torre indicated that Luis Vizcaino will be in store for a more prominent late-inning role. Vizcaino, who finished the seventh with a walk and a groundout, also has been a huge disappointment, although he has been somewhat better of late.
“Vizcaino is going to get more into the mix,” Torre said.
Ron Guidry said he will talk with Proctor today to see if he’s OK physically.
“Maybe they’re just dead tired,” the pitching coach said. “We abused them in the first month and a half of the season. They were in there almost every day.”
Proctor is 1-5 with a 4.10 ERA over a team-high 40 appearances, and he has been charged with at least one run in each of his last four outings.
“He just needs to get his act together,” Torre said. “He needs to be able to get ahead in the count and locate his pitches.”
Farnsworth followup: Farnsworth threw his glove into the dugout when Torre took him out with two on and two outs in the eighth in favor of Mariano Rivera in a one-run game in the series opener on Friday night. Torre indicated afterward that the matter would be taken care of “in house.” He said before yesterday’s game that he doesn’t think it’s an issue for them.
Somehow, I don’t thinking adding Vizcaino to the mix is going to fix things…
Friday, June 29, 2007
NJ.com: Yankees: They’re done; What’s next?
I usually beat you to death with numbers here, but this article is an interesting look at the Yankees from a scouting perspective, which can often be more useful than the stats, as well as what they could possibly bring back if traded as part of a rebuilding. Some snippets:
THE COVETED ONES:
CHIEN-MING WANG
The line: A Cy Young Award caliber pitcher who’s young and cheap.
Who would be interested: All 29 other teams.
The hangup: Wang is the centerpiece of the Yankees’ pitching staffs of the future.
Scout’s take: “You spend your whole career hoping you can find a guy with that kind of poise on the mound.”ALEX RODRIGUEZ
The line: Almost every team would be interested, but few could afford him.
Who would be interested: Angels, Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres.
The hangup: No-trade contract and the knowledge that he’s opting out of his contract at the end of the year.
Scout’s take: “If they put him on the market, they could get anybody they wanted. The Angels would give them their farm system.”
...
DEADWOOD
HIDEKI MATSUI
The line: His track record as a clutch hitter and a solid citizen make him appealing.
Who would be interested: Indians, A’s, Phillies, Mets, Braves, Padres..
The hangup: No-trade clause and $13 million annual salary.
Scout’s take: “Doesn’t look like the same guy he was when he first got here. A couple of steps slow in the outfield. But he’s a clutch hitter and a class guy. If he’d go, there are teams that could do worse.”BOBBY ABREU
The line: Last year the Yankees were the only team interested enough to take on his salary.
Who would be interested: Anaheim, Oakland or Minnesota.
The hangup: The Yankees would have to pay some of his salary.
Scout’s take: “Frustrating guy. You know he’s not done, because he’s too young.”JOHNNY DAMON
The line: Who would be interested: Hard to imagine anybody would be interested right now.
The hangup: Damon hasn’t been able to play, at all, let alone well, all year. And he’s signed for two more years at $13 million per after this. If they unloaded him, they’d have a party.
Scout’s take: “Can’t play the outfield anymore, at all. Which means he’s a DH who doesn’t hit home runs. Which means nobody would want him.”KYLE FARNSWORTH
The line: Everybody needs bullpen help.
Who would be interested: Blue Jays, Indians, Tigers, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Cardinals.
The hangup: He’s not good, and he’s making $5.25 million this year and $5.5 million more next year.
Scout’s take: “The guy has just never learned how to pitch. He thinks, if he throws it through the backstop, he’ll get outs. But with an arm like that, he’ll always draw interest.
...
THE UNTOUCHABLES
DEREK JETER
The line: The captain? Come’on…
Who would be interested: Blue Jays, Tigers, A’s, Mariners, Padres…lots of teams.
The hangup: Full no-trade clause. He’s the Prince of the City.
Scout’s take: “No way he ever plays anywhere else.”JORGE POSADA
The line: Would draw interest from teams looking to add a big bat.
Who would be interested: Angels, A’s, Phillies, Marlins, Diamondbacks.
The hangup: He has a no-trade protection and can be a free agent at the end of the year.
Scout’s take: “Looks as good at the plate as he ever has, but I’d be careful. He’s got to wear down in the second half.”MARIANO RIVERA
The line: Even if he’s not the Rivera of old, think of the PR boost you’d get bringing in a living legend like this.
Who would be interested: Blue Jays, Indians, Tigers, A’s, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Cubs, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants. Maybe a half-dozen or so more.
The hangup: No-trade clause, and he would look real weird in a different uniform.
Scout’s take: “His cutter isn’t what it used to be, but I’d still take him over almost anybody else out there.”
...
You can go to the link to see the rest of the players that were mentioned.
The Yankees neither won nor lost last night’s game, which is better than losing I suppose. It’ll be resumed on July 29 when they make their next trip to Baltimore.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
NY Daily News: Bruney is out of control
The Yankees love Brian Bruney’s stuff, but he has been wild and hittable lately. Bruney didn’t allow a run in two-thirds of an inning on Sunday, but allowed a hit and walked a batter and has walked at least one batter in eight of his last nine appearances and allowed a hit in 11 of his last 13.
“Consistency is going to be his curiosity,” Joe Torre said. “He sure can come in there and wipe you out, boom, boom, boom. When he starts losing his release point, he really has trouble finding a way to get back to it. If he keeps his arm in the right slot, he gets good movement. But sometimes he gets into that ‘guide’ mode and it hurts both his slider and his fastball.”
Bruney’s command issues are the reason he was available to the Yankees in the first place, so I’m not sure how much better he’s going to get in that department. I’d still rather see him pitching than Kyle Farnsworth in higher leverage spots, but that says more about Farns than Bruney.
Yanks head to Baltimore to begin a three game series against one of the few teams playing worse than they are. They get three potentially tough matchups in Jeremy Guthrie, Erik Bedard, and Daniel Cabrera. The Yanks could really use a sweep, but it won’t be easy.
Monday, June 18, 2007
The Surge
I'm a bad Yankee fan. On May 28, the Yankees fell to 21-28 and I wrote them off. They lost the next game to fall to 21-29. Since then, the Yanks have played 17 games, and won 14 of them, moving themselves from 14.5 games back of the AL East division lead and 8.5 games back of the wild card lead to 8.5 games back in the AL East, and 3.5 games back in the wild card.How have they been doing it? It's a team effort, on offense, on defense, and with the pitching.
Here's how the offense has performed since May 30, sorted by batting runs by linear weights above average. These are not position-adjusted, but are compared to the league average for all players. Players are sorted from most to least valuable.
| Player | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RB | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR +/- |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 77 | 60 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 1 | .383 | .494 | .850 | 1.344 | 12 |
| Abreu, Bobby | 75 | 59 | 20 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | .407 | .533 | .678 | 1.211 | 9 |
| Cano, Robinson | 73 | 67 | 10 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | .343 | .397 | .567 | .964 | 4 |
| Posada, Jorge | 69 | 59 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | .305 | .377 | .559 | .936 | 4 |
| Jeter, Derek | 79 | 69 | 18 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | .319 | .392 | .493 | .885 | 3 |
| Matsui, Hideki | 76 | 65 | 13 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | .338 | .408 | .477 | .885 | 2 |
| Cabrera, Melky | 70 | 60 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | .300 | .357 | .417 | .774 | 0 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 |
| Giambi, Jason | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .200 | .250 | .450 | 0 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 48 | 44 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | .295 | .313 | .364 | .676 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | 70 | 64 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .250 | .314 | .391 | .705 | -1 |
| Nieves, Wil | 13 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .231 | .167 | .397 | -1 |
| Phelps, Josh | 29 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .310 | .231 | .541 | -2 |
| Total | 690 | 595 | 121 | 190 | 41 | 5 | 21 | 112 | 72 | 98 | 19 | 6 | .319 | .394 | .511 | .905 | 29 |
Almost everyone on the team has been average or above, but it's been the A-Rod and Abreu show. After a down May, Alex Rodriguez is on fire. For all the talk about how Johnny Damon has been hitting better as a DH, he really hasn't been that good. The big thing is that the whole team is hitting fairly consistently overall. Even Miguel Cairo hasn't been horrendous, although the more he plays the more he's going to cost the team on offense, and I say this as one of his biggest fans. Overall, they're 29 runs above average over the last 17 games on offense.
Of course, we all know that pitching wins championships™. Not really, but it sure helps. Here's how the pitching staff has done so far. RSAA is runs saved above average, which is simply the difference between how many runs a pitcher has given up compared to what an average pitcher would have in the same number of innings (earned and unearned runs). FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching ERA, which regresses a pitcher's non HR hits to average in an attempt to remove the factors out of their control. It's a good way to see if a pitcher is over or under-performing their peripherals and what we should expect from them going forward.
| Player | GS | GF | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/9 | RSAA |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 30.3 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 2.08 | 3.20 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 9 |
| Myers, Mike | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 3 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9.3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 3 |
| Vizcaino, Luis | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1.35 | 3.35 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 3 |
| Mussina, Mike | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18.7 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 3.86 | 4.65 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Clemens, Roger | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12.3 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 3.65 | 2.55 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Henn, Sean | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | 5.70 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Pettitte, Andy | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20.3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 4.43 | 3.74 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Britton, Chris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 6.87 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Bruney, Brian | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4.50 | 7.87 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Farnsworth, Kyle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5.14 | 3.20 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Proctor, Scott | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.3 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 2.61 | 2.81 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Villone, Ron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 12.70 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | -2 |
| DeSalvo, Matt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 7.70 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 |
| Clippard, Tyler | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17.0 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 7.94 | 7.44 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 5.8 | -6 |
| Total | 17 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 152.0 | 152 | 68 | 64 | 14 | 54 | 111 | 3.79 | 4.16 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 13 |
We all love Wang. Despite being the biggest fluke ever, he has been the Yankees most valuable pitcher since May 30, and last night he put on a clinic. He threw one changeup to Jose Reyes that Reyes fell over trying to hit, and did a masterful job of mixing in his secondary pitches last night, fanning a career-high 10 in the process. Roger Clemens followed up an ok start against Pittsburgh with a better one against a better team on Friday. RLYW whipping boy Luis Vizcaino has been outstanding of late, showing more life on his fastball and slider and has fanned 7 in 6.2 innings. The BB rate is still high, but he's working around that. The only pitchers who have been below average are Matt DeSalvo, Tyler Clippard, and Ron Villone. DeSalvo and Clippard have been optioned back to Scranton, and Villone's relegated to extreme mopup. Overall Yankee pitchers have saved 13 runs above average over the last 17 games.
The Yankees' defense has been a sore spot for most of the last few years. However, even that's been doing well over this recent stretch.
| Player | Pos | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 17 | 17 | 53 | 151 | 35 | 58 | 0 | 17 | .906 | 48 | 5 | 4 | 35 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 15 | 15 | 45 | 139 | 12 | 29 | 1 | 3 | .778 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Cairo, Miguel | SS | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 72 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 3 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .900 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 15 | 13 | 37 | 129 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .892 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Basak, Chris | 3B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 92 |
| Cabrera, Melky | RF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 16 | 15 | 32 | 143 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .875 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 3B | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .667 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -36 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 1B | 9 | 7 | 22 | 76 | 76 | 6 | 0 | 10 | .818 | 18 | -1 | -1 | -10 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 16 | 16 | 37 | 151 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .838 | 31 | -1 | -1 | -8 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 1B | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .500 | 2 | -2 | -1 | -102 |
| Phelps, Josh | 1B | 10 | 7 | 9 | 56 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 6 | .667 | 6 | -2 | -1 | -35 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 16 | 15 | 57 | 142 | 26 | 48 | 3 | 15 | .754 | 43 | -3 | -2 | -24 |
| Total | 16 | 16 | 313 | 1056 | 330 | 153 | 8 | 58 | .827 | 259 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Player | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | PB | SBA | CS | CS% | CERA | RS | RS/162 |
| Nieves | 4 | 4 | 33 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.64 | -1 | -32 |
| Posada | 14 | 13 | 119 | 95 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 3.55 | -2 | -22 |
| Total | 18 | 17 | 152 | 122 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 3.79 | -3 | -25 |
Robinson Cano has disappointed on offense this year, but his defense as tracked by ZR has been outstanding. Over the last 17 games he's saved 4 runs above average, which would be the equivalent of saving 35 runs over a full season. To my eye, Miguel Cairo's defense at first has been much better than reflected in his ZR. The main thing is that overall, the team is playing close to average defense to support the pitching staff. The catchers haven't been very good defensively, but Posada and Nieves have combined for 82 hits and 22 doubles this year, so that's something.
The numbers above have led to the Yankees having a run differential of 121 runs scored and 68 allowed. That translates to a pythagorean record of 12-5, but they've gone 14-3 instead. So we can add at least some good fortune into the mix as well.
| Standings | W | L | RS | RA | WPct |
| Actual | 14 | 3 | 121 | 68 | 0.824 |
| Pythag | 12 | 5 | 121 | 68 | 0.742 |
Add it all up, and you have a team that's been on fire. They still have a lot of ground to make up, but I'll have an updated look at their playoff odds tomorrow.
Friday, May 25, 2007
Denver Post: Trade winds from N.Y.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters this week that although trades are always possible, nothing is warm right now. Still, multiple scouts said Wednesday the Yankees are interested in Rockies first baseman Todd Helton and closer Brian Fuentes, though nothing is brewing.
If the Rockies don’t rebound, many teams will be calling to see if they want to unload salaries. Helton has rebounded nicely this season. He ranks second in the big leagues in on-base percentage and first with 21 multihit games. Fuentes has already established a club record with eight saves this month.
Helton’s having a great start to the year, but he’s lost a lot of his power and he’s still got a lot of money due to him. From mlb4u.com:
9-Year worth 141.5M- will make in 2003- 10.6M, in 2004- 11.6M, in 2005-12.6M, in 2006- 16.6M, in 2007-16.6M, in 2008- 16.6M. in 2009-16.6M, in 2010-16.6M, in 2011- 19.1M and in 2012- Team option 23M or 4.6M buyout
The last thing the Yankees need to do is take on more salary for a declining player who’s not going to be worth his contract. Since this is still in the speculation phase and we don’t know what the Yankees would be sending to Colorado, there’s no sense doing an evaluation yet.
The Fuentes rumor is a little more interesting to me. I’d love to have him setting up Mo, especially if Kyle Farnsworth could be part of the package going back. Fuentes is a lefty with a deceptive sidearm delivery and decent, but not overpowering stuff. He’s got a fastball that sits around 90 mph and a good slider. He’s thrived in the thin air of Coors (career ERA+ of 135) and at age 31 is still fairly young. He does have a platoon split, but not super extreme (career .228/.326/.389 vs RHB, .219/.318/.342 vs LHB). Interestingly, his home and road ERA in his career is exactly the same at 3.54.
Friday, May 18, 2007
ESPN: Farnsworth: Rocket Shouldn’t Be Allowed to Leave
New York reliever Kyle Farnsworth thinks no one on the Yankees, not even Roger Clemens, should be allowed to leave the team when they aren’t pitching.
Farnsworth was on Chicago’s 670 AM The Score on Thursday morning when he first criticized the so-called “family plan” clause in Clemens’ one-year, $28 million contract that allows the right-hander to leave the team for personal matters when he’s not pitching.
Farnsworth reiterated his beliefs in the clubhouse before the Yankees’ 4-1 loss to the White Sox.
“As far as a teammate and a player, I think everybody should be here whether they’re pitching or not,” he said. “You don’t see guys who are hurt not sit on the bench. They’re always there.”
Even so, Farnsworth doesn’t think it’s going to be a problem and didn’t foresee any clubhouse tension over preferential treatment for one of the game’s greatest pitchers.
I agree with Farnsworth. I also think middle relievers who make $4-5 million a year shouldn’t suck. I wonder how Kyle feels about that?
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Derek Jeter Zone Rating Update - April 14
Since I last posted about Derek Jeter's awful ZR and pace, he's been playing much better, so it's only fair to recognize that now. Here is a day by day log of Jeter's defense, logging playable chances as defined by zone rating and the actual plays made.| Player | Date | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | DP | PM | Ch | ZR |
| Jeter | 2-Apr | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.600 |
| Jeter | 5-Apr | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.455 |
| Jeter | 6-Apr | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.455 |
| Jeter | 7-Apr | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.538 |
| Jeter | 8-Apr | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.600 |
| Jeter | 9-Apr | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0.700 |
| Jeter | 10-Apr | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.750 |
| Jeter | 11-Apr | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.760 |
| Jeter | 13-Apr | 1 | 1 | 10.1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0.774 |
| Jeter | Total | 9 | 9 | 80.1 | 16 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 31 | 0.774 |
His ZR has gone from .455 to .774 over the last six games, and his RS/162 pace has gone from -212 to -25. Really though, this post is not about Jeter's defense. The sample size is too small for it to be particularly meaningful. It's more to make a larger point, that looking at a 4-5 record after 9 games and being ready to panic is pretty short-sighted. Yesterday's loss sucked, and should have been a win, but at least we saw signs that Kei Igawa may end up being a serviceable back of the rotation starter. In the big picture, that is more important than one loss.
Kyle Farnsworth should be demoted to garbage time BTW.
I'm also stunned that Carl Pavano has an arm issue. Stunned.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
2007 Yankee Run Values - Through April 9
I figure it's a good time for a small sample-size look at how the Yankees have performed so far. Here's the position players on offense and defense. The last 3 columns are if you pro-rate over the rest of the season.| Player | BR | Def | Total | pBR | pDef | pTotal |
| A Rodriguez* | 6.7 | -0.3 | 6.3 | 180 | -9 | 171 |
| J Damon* | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 68 | 18 | 86 |
| B Abreu* | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 48 | 32 | 79 |
| J Posada* | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 43 | 4 | 48 |
| J Phelps* | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | -4 | 18 | 15 |
| W Nieves* | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -12 | 0 | -12 |
| M Cairo* | -0.9 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -23 | 8 | -15 |
| J Giambi* | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -23 | 0 | -23 |
| D Mientkiewicz* | -1.0 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -26 | -8 | -34 |
| H Matsui* | -0.4 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -11 | -26 | -37 |
| M Cabrera* | -3.0 | 1.4 | -1.7 | -82 | 37 | -45 |
| D Jeter* | 0.2 | -1.9 | -1.7 | 6 | -52 | -46 |
| R Cano* | -0.8 | -1.8 | -2.6 | -22 | -48 | -71 |
| Total | 5.2 | -1.0 | 4.3 | 142 | -26 | 115 |
Alex Rodriguez is on fire. Damon's not getting the hype, but he's doing really well too. The middle infield is sucking it up so far on both sides of the ball, but I don't expect that to continue for long. And what about the pitching?
| Player | RSAA | pRSAA |
| S Henn* | 2.2 | 59 |
| M Myers* | 1.9 | 51 |
| B Bruney* | 1.7 | 46 |
| K Farnsworth* | 1.4 | 38 |
| M Rivera* | 0.9 | 25 |
| L Vizcaino* | 0.6 | 15 |
| A Pettitte* | 0.3 | 9 |
| S Proctor* | -0.3 | -8 |
| C Pavano* | -0.7 | -18 |
| D Rasner* | -3.0 | -80 |
| M Mussina* | -4.1 | -111 |
| K Igawa* | -4.7 | -126 |
| Total | -3.7 | -100 |
| BR | Batting Runs above average (linear weights) |
| Def | Runs saved above average by Zone Rating |
| Total | BR + Def |
| RSAA | Runs saved above average (lgERA - ERA)/9 x IP |
The bullpen is carrying the pitching staff so far, which isn't exactly news to anyone who's been watching. They won't be able to keep up their performance, because if they're pitching as much as they have to this point they're going to get worn out, but you have to figure Moose will get better, and Igawa will either get better or be pitching in Scranton. Wang should return by the end of the month. As I mentioned at the top, small sample size clearly applies, but this should give you a rough idea of where the Yankees should get better. The fact that they've been scoring like they have with minimal to negative contribution from the bulk of their players is a very good sign. If they get their starting pitching to be serviceable, they'll be in pretty good shape.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
Newsday: ‘Pen comes through
The bullpen bridge looked as sturdy as any of the New York bridges that supported the many cars that traveled to Yankee Stadium yesterday. If Brian Bruney, Sean Henn, Luis Vizcaino and Kyle Farnsworth were the George Washington, Triborough, Whitestone and Throgs Neck, then Mariano Rivera was, as always, the Empire State Building.
...
“I didn’t like it, I love it,” Rivera said of the relief corps. “When you see the guys in front of you do their job, it’s contagious. You can’t ask for a better job from them than today.”
I am psyched about the potential the bullpen has this year. Lots of 95+ mph fastballs.
The March To 162 Wins…
Now of course, if everything had gone perfectly yesterday afternoon, it really wouldn’t make a difference. Opening Day is great because we’ve been deprived of baseball for so long, but it’s ultimately just another game, and it means no more than any other game.
Still, there was plenty of both good and bad yesterday. On the bad side, Carl Pavano wasn’t able to get out of the fifth inning, and the D-Rays seemed to let him out of trouble a few times. On the other hand, he did get let down by his defense several times, and Tampa Bay has several good young hitters in their lineup. They’re not the Red Sox, but there are a few guys who will be excellent hitters over their careers over there. It wasn’t really what we were hoping for at all from Pavano, but after two years, at least we got something. Pavano’s start was similar to the kind of starts Jaret Wright posted last year, but I think he can and will do better over the course of the season. If he stays healthy, I think he’ll help.
The defense sucked hard all day. Josh Phelps looked dreadful at first, but I was impressed with his approach at the plate. I’m fine with Mientkiewicz playing against the righties, but first base is a position where you can give up defense to gain offense, and Phelps should, at this point, start against every single lefty. If he puts up merely average first base numbers, the Yankees will be putting out one of the most dangerous lineups in history.
They might be doing that anyway. They worked 35 pitches out of Scott Kazmir in the first inning, and were able to chase him out in the sixth, giving them plenty of time to pound Tampa Bay’s weak ‘pen. But Kazmir didn’t really have his best control, and they probably should have scored more runs off of him. They did let him off the hook a couple of times.
I view A-Rod’s contributions as positive. He didn’t look bad making outs early in the game, his error in the first probably shouldn’t have been an error—it was a long run with a bad sky to look up into—and his eighth-inning home run was extremely impressive, not just in distance, but in where the pitch was. Alex is probably going to have a huge year, and he’s probably going to opt out. And the Yankees will probably let him go. Sigh. Hopefully they can at least get a ring with him this year.
I was very impressed with the bullpen. Bruney, Henn, Vizcaino and Farnsworth were outstanding, and Rivera was perfect. If yesterday was indicative of the quality we can expect from the bullpen, this is going to be a very good season. Even if you’re a pessimist, the starting rotation isn’t bad to begin with, it just lacks a great pitcher, and if this is the kind of relief they’re gonna get, “not bad” will be enough to win 100 games behind this lineup. If they can pull in Clemens… well, it’s way too early to really think about that.
Back to Rivera, he really did look amazing. Torre’s said he’s going to hold Mo for one inning at a time this year, but despite what he said about the bullpen, I really hope he backs off of that a little, and backs off of what he did yesterday even more. Rivera shouldn’t pitch with a four-run lead, though with an offday today it’s not really an issue, but when the Yanks are playing the Red Sox in Fenway in mid-September, and the tying run is on second with two outs in the bottom of the eighth… I want Mo in there.
Speaking of Boston, they got crushed yesterday, 7-1, getting shut down by Gil Meche. Gil Meche! Hahaha! Ahhh… watch him win 20 games and the Cy Young this year… and own the Yankees…
But honestly, Boston looked bad. But it’s Opening Day, and it doesn’t really mean very much at all. But hoo boy, am I glad that baseball is back.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Looking Ahead to 2007: The Yankee Bullpen
Opening Day is less than just around the corner, so it’s time to wrap up my 2007 Yankees previews with a look at the Yankee bullpen. Last year, Yankee relievers pitched a total of 510 innings, and ended up being about 3 runs above average collectively as a group. The bulk of that was the performance of the incomparable Mariano Rivera and Scott Proctor finally getting results that matched his talent.
This year’s collection of bullpen arms has quite a bit of promise, but just like it has since 1996, it starts with The Sandman.
Mariano Rivera had another outstanding season in a career full of outstanding seasons. Over the last four seasons, Rivera’s ERA has not topped 2. In 303 innings, he has an ERA of 1.69. There were two minor issues in 2006 that might be of some concern going forward. The first was a drop in his K rate. Rivera’s K rate dropped from 80 in 78.3 innings in 2005 to 55 in 75 innings. Rivera’s K rate has fluctuated throughout his career, so I don’t think is a huge issue.
The other issue was some elbow soreness that he had at the tail end of the season. Rivera eventually recovered after some time off and pitched well at the end of the season, and so far this spring he’s been outstanding, so this is also a minor concern.
Rivera is difficult to project accurately. Projection systems are designed to work with the aggregrate population of baseball players, but Rivera is unique. He’s consistently outperformed the league with regards to his batting average against on balls in play. He controls the HR better than most pitchers when you compare his ratio of HRs/flyball to other pitchers.
Rivera’s projections for 2007 are still solid.
Rivera’s 2006 was worth 23 runs above average. Most of the projection systems predict a falloff(except ZiPS), but as I stated above that’s at least partly because of how hard it is to predict someone like Rivera. That being said, Mo is 37, and at some point he’s going to start slowing down.
This spring, camp started with noise about Rivera testing free agency. Part of that was surely the emotional response to seeing Bernie Williams not being brought back. With his new changeup, and playing for his next and perhaps final contract, I think Rivera is primed for yet another excellent season. If that happens, the Yankees will pay him what he is worth, and hopefully we’ll get to see Rivera closing games in the new Yankee Stadium.
In 2006, Kyle Farnsworth showed why he drove Cubs fans nuts for years. When Farnsworth is on his game, you wonder how anyone ever hits him. Unfortunately, too often he was either not on his game, or fighting a balky back and unable to pitch. Farnsworth still delivered one of the most enjoyable moments of the season, when he worked out of a bases loaded jam (induced by his own crappy control) to catch David Ortiz looking at a full count slider with two outs and the bases loaded and the Yankees up by two in Fenway.
Farnsworth’s not a lights-out reliever like Tom Gordon was. He’ll have his moments, good and bad, and may not be the primary setup man in 2007 depending on how the people behind end up performing. Here are Farnsworth’s projections for 2007.
Last year, Farnsworth’s 4.64 RA was exactly average for a reliever, so he was average overall. Farnsworth projects to be a bit better than that this year. He has the talent to be even better than that, and the inconsistency to be worse. Like most Yankee fans, I’ll be holding my breath whenever he comes in.
One of the biggest stories of 2006 had to be the emergence of Scott Proctor. Acquired in the Robin Ventura trade of 2003, Proctor has always had a good fastball, but bad command and mediocre secondary pitches had led to him being tatooed in the Yankee pen in 2004 and 2005. Proctor wasn’t expected to make the team out of spring training until injuries got him on the roster. After a rough debut, losing a game in Oakland, Proctor became one of the most valuable Yankee relievers. He pitched often, and pitched well. Like many, I felt he was being overused, and I also felt he was pitching over his head. However, he actually improved as the season went on.
Last year was way out of line from everything in Proctor’s prior performance history, which is reflected in his 2007 projections.
Projecting pitchers is often an exercise in futility. In the case of someone like Proctor, it’s tough to know how much of last year was a fluke, and how much of it was a genuine change in his talent/ability. We won’t know that until we see more. Proctor’s looked outstanding this spring, and I’m starting to think he’s at least somewhat for real. Even if he falls back towards his projections, he should be a useful part of the pen in 2007.
Luis Vizcaino seems like a decent middle reliever, but I doubt he’ll be much more than that. Historically, he’s exhibited a reverse platoon split.
vs LH: .229/.310/.400
vs RH: .249/.321/.427
He projects to be around average, which is fine.
I can’t shake this feeling that Vizcaino = Felix Rodriguez, but hopefully it turns out better than that.
Mike Myers was supposed to be the Yankees’ answer to David Ortiz. Not only did that not work out, but Myers was actually better against righties last year. There’s a lot of noise in a single year’s splits, so I’d expect Myers to revert to form this year.
When projecting Myers, you have to remember that he’s a tactical option, and shouldn’t really be assessed in terms of his overall production towards preventing runs. Myers is in the last year of a two year deal, and I’d imagine that if he doesn’t do the one thing he was brought in to do early on, he may get buried in the back of the pen or even released.
Brian Bruney throws gas. Unfortunately, it doesn’t often go where he wants it to go. Bruney’s still pretty young, and has been pretty nasty this spring, fanning 14 in seven innings, with just two walks to go with it. His control keeps him from projecting very well.
Bruney’s the wild card in the pen to me. He could end up being the second best reliever in the pen if it clicks for him. Even if it doesn’t, there’s nothing wrong with having inconsistent guys who can strike people out around in the pen. If I had to pick one guy who could blow his projections away on the pitching staff this year, it’d be Bruney.
Ron Villone may or may not be a Yankee this year. Most of you know the deal with Villone. Great first half, horrible second half. Whether it was overuse or regressing back towards his mean, the real Villone is probably somewhere in the middle. I don’t think Villone has any upside, but you could do worse with a long reliever/mop up guy.
Villone’s looked lousy this spring. He may not have anything left.
If Villone doesn’t make the Yankees, it’ll likely be because Sean Henn does. Henn’s been in the Yankee organization for what seems like decades, and has been fighting his way back from a pretty severe arm injury and surgery a few years ago. Henn used to deal in the high 90s, but now he’s more of a lows 90s guy. He hasn’t impressed in his brief major league stints, but a move to the pen may end up helping him find his niche.
Henn doesn’t project as well as Villone for 2007, but sometimes you have to balance the needs of the present with planning for the future. Is the .5 difference in projected ERA really worth not finding out what you have in Henn for future? Henn will be 26 in April, it’s probably time to give him a shot or let him go. With the news that he has a fourth option year, he also gives the Yankees roster flexibility, something that has often been an issue for the team.
The Yankees used the theory of sunk cost to acquire Chris Britton from the Orioles after picking up the option on Jaret Wright’s 2007 contract. Britton had a decent season with Baltimore last year, but I have this nagging concern that Orioles fans didn’t seem to care that he got traded. He’s not a particularly hard-thrower, but works in the low 90s, and looks like he’ll start the year in the minors after a shaky spring. He should get some innings this year and projects pretty well if he does.
Britton’s struggled this spring, which has helped make the decision to farm him out easier.
Although he may start his season in the rotation, I’m listing Jeff Karstens in the bullpen since if all goes well, he’ll be a long relief candidate. That’s not a slight on Karstens, but if the Yankees plans go well, he’s just not as likely to be good as any of the projected starting five.
Karstens looked much better than the guy who finished 2006 this spring until his last two starts. He had better velocity (91-92 on his fastball, compared to high 80s last year), seemed to have a sharper hook, and he was getting more grounders. While I think making judgements based on spring training stats is not smart, visual observations of players (especially pitchers) can be pretty useful. I like Karstens a lot more this year than I did last year, and it’s primarily because his stuff now looks like it’s major league quality. The elbow issue he’s having now complicates any assessment of him.
It’s tough to know if the Karstens we saw most of the spring just reverted to form recently, or if the stiff elbow was to blame. His projections seem harsh, but Karstens did have a 4.28 ERA in AAA last year, although he was outstanding after a rough start. I think Karstens will be useful reliever/spot starter this year, and am cautiously optimistic that he will exceed his projections.
Last on the list, Darrell Rasner. See Jeff Karstens. As far as I’m concerned, they’re basically interchangeable, and will probably get moved up and down as needed all year.
Rasner projects a bit better than Karstens, but Karstens seems to have the organization’s attention more than Rasner.
So what do all the numbers and projections mean? Here’s a comparison of last year’s pitching staff to this year’s projections. I adjusted the innings totals of some of the pitchers to try and make them line up with last year.
Despite pessimistic projections for Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina relative to last season, improved depth replacing some really bad contributions by Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon, and others should put the team in a position to end up with a better overall pitching staff. The rotation isn’t spectacular, but it should be solid enough to get through the regular season. Whether they’ll be pitching well when October starts is the $190 million question.
So, with all the previewing out of the way, let’s see where the Yankees end up. When I looked at the Yankee bench I summed up the projections for the position players on offense and defense. They came out to 142 runs above average on offense, and 32 runs below average on defense. Add in the pitching staff’s projected 44 runs above average, and the team ends up at 156 runs above average.
So they project to be about 16 wins above an average team, or a 97 win team overall. You can knock off a couple of wins if you want to add in some more replacement level pitching, but this is still a damn good team. If Phil Hughes and/or Roger Clemens replace some of the worse innings in the projections above, they could be even better than that. Should be a fun season, and it’s only three days away.
Cheap Plug Alert: I wrote an article for the Hardball Times previewing five questions that will tell the tale of the Yankees in 2007.
Breaking News: Abraham - Yankees Set Roster From Peter Abraham’s great Yankee blog:
LHP Sean Henn, C Wil Nieves and 1B Josh Phelps are on the team.
No word on yet on the No. 5 starter other than that
RHP Jeff Karstens is headed to the DL.
Monday, December 4, 2006
12/4/06: Odds and Ends
With baseball’s Winter Meetings beginning to roll, there’s no shortage of rumors and speculation rampant.
According to Newsday, the Yankees are holding a roster spot open for Andy Pettitte should he decide to come back to the Bronx, even though it’s not very likely. Pettitte wouldn’t be a bad option, as he’d likely come with a shorter time committment than someone like Barry Zito. He was overrated during his Yankee tenure, but he’s a solid pitcher, and could probably put up an ERA in the 4.00 area while giving the team innings as long as he can stay healthy, something that is occasionally a problem for him.
In good news for Yankee fans, Tanyon Sturtze has signed with Atlanta. For some reason, the Braves are guaranteeing him $750,000. I guess a bellyful of guts is a valued commodity. There are rumors that the Yankees may look to deal Kyle Farnsworth. I don’t think it’d hurt the Yankees to see what he could bring back, although I don’t necessarily think he has to be dealt or anything. He had his good stretches and bad stretches last season, just like he has throughout his entire career. He’s a decent bet to be useful next year, although his 2005 is pretty apparently the outlier in an inconsistent career.
A reader emailed me this page of Kei Igawa’s 2006 splits from Yahoo! Japan. Since I can’t read Japanese real well, I ran it through the World Lingo translator. Igawa had a Defense Ratio (ERA) of 2.97 last season. He had 3 Nothing Point Victories (shutouts). He suffered 180 Hits, 17 book Base Hits (HRs), got Three Swings (Strikeouts) 194 times, he gave 49 Annie Oakleys (BB, WTF?), and also gave six dead spheres (HBP). He allowed 77 losing points (Runs) and 69 Self-reproach points (Earned Runs).
Fun with translations aside, the lefty/righty splits were interesting.
Vs. Righties
AB: 518
H: 106
HR: 7
K: 138
BB: 33
HBP: 4
AVg: .205
OBP: .258
K/PA: .25
BB/PA: .06
Vs. Lefties
AB: 251
H: 74
HR: 10
K: 56
BB: 16
HBP: 2
Avg. .295
OBP: .342
K/PA: .21
BB/PA: .06
One year’s splits can have a lot of noise, and it’s also probable he was facing only the better lefties in Japan, but these aren’t very good splits for a team that will be facing David Ortiz 19 times this season. This also tells me he’s probably primarily a changeup pitcher, and his breaking ball is not very good.
The Yankees are still in the market for a 1B, backup C, and a utility IF. They may bring Miguel Cairo back, who isn’t great by any means but isn’t as bad as his offensive numbers make him seem thanks to his ability to play multiple positions quite well defensively. I still think Mike Lieberthal as a backup C makes all kinds of sense. As far as 1B, I still think Craig Wilson would be the best option, because he can help balance what’s become a very heavily left-handed lineup. And yeah, I know he had 105 bad AB as a Yankee. Putting stock in that over the 1848 other AB he’s had in his career is not really good player evaluation.
I pray the rumors about the Yankees interest in Shea Hillenbrand aren’t valid, because I don’t think I can stand rooting for him, and he’s just not that good. I’ve seen mention of Doug Mientkiewicz. I’m not a huge fan of his, although he’s a decent OBP guy and a pretty good glove. He’s also a lefty with no pop, and spelling his name all the time on this blog would be a royal pain in the ...
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Run Values of the 2006 Yankees
With the Yankees’ 2006 season at its end, I wanted to take one last look back at the contributions of everyone who wore pinstripes this season. I posted the details of a lot of these calculations in this entry a while back, so if you want more background you can check that out.
First up, the offense.
Next up, the defense.
Lastly, the pitching.
Add it all up, and here’s the sum total of everyone’s contributions to the Yankees in 2006.
Do these numbers make sense? The Yankees were 167 runs better than an average team, or 16.7 wins better. Add 16.7 wins to an 81 win team, you get a 97.8 win team. I guess they do.
In other Yankee news, Joe Torre is staying.
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Yankees.com: Torre sets postseason roster
NEW YORK—Joe Torre settled on his 25-man roster for the American League Division Series, choosing Andy Phillips and Miguel Cairo to round out his bench.
In addition, Torre announced that Brian Bruney would be the final man in the bullpen, as the Yankees will take 11 pitchers into the opening round of the postseason.
New York will take seven infielders (Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Cairo and Phillips), two catchers (Jorge Posada and Sal Fasano) and five outfielders (Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Bernie Williams and Melky Cabrera).
The 11 pitchers will be Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, Cory Lidle, Ron Villone, Bruney, Mike Myers, Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera. If Johnson’s back injury causes him to miss his Game 3 start, the Yankees would leave him off the roster and add either Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner or Sean Henn.
The decision to take Phillips as the backup first baseman over Craig Wilson or Aaron Guiel had as much to do with Phillips’ ability to play second and third base as his defense at first.
“We felt Phillips gave us the defense at first base,” Torre said. “Plus, in the event we want to use Cairo as a pinch-runner, we have a backup infielder who can play third, second or first.”
I can’t say have much issue with any of the choices. While I’d rather see them take 10 pitchers and add Aaron Guiel or Craig Wilson, given Johnson’s uncertain status taking 11 pitchers is the safer move.
Update: I saw this posted on Baseball Think Factory and thought it was interesting.
Another update: Since the batting race is the hot topic of the day, I’ll keep the table below updated in real-time.
| Player | Today | AVG |
|---|---|---|
 | 2-4 | .347 |
 | 1-5 | .343 |
 | 2-4 | .342 |
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Yankees 16, Tampa Bay 1
There’s that missing offense. I’m really pressed for time today, so this has to be quick.
- Robinson Cano is now qualified for the batting title. He needs 19 PA over the rest of the season to remain qualified. He can probably get that by playing in 5 of the 6 remaining games.
- Gary Sheffield seems to be getting more comfortable at first base
- Randy Johnson has been pitching with a bad back for a month. I don’t suppose it occurred to Randy that it may have been better for the team to tell them about this a month before the playoffs, rather than a week before?
- Mariano pitched again, and that is better news than the offensive outburst
- Right now, I trust Scott Proctor and Brian Bruney more than Kyle Farnsworth
- Congratulations to Andy Cannizaro for hitting his first major league homer. He may or may not have much of a major league future, but he’ll always have that at the very least.
Thursday, September 7, 2006
Matsui, Thunder take opener
This Matsui kid looks like a keeper. More impressive than Hideki’s first game action back, check out Phil Hughes’s line for those who haven’t yet seen it.
6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 13 K.
The big club whipped up on the Royals 8-3 last night. Randy Johnson was great, almost Anibal Sanchez-like, taking a no-hitter into the seventh before allowing a double. Johnson was pulled after seven innings and 81 pitches, and I was fine with this. The Yankees were winning 8-0 when he would have started the eighth, and with the game well in hand, many of the regulars in the lineup had been pulled. Gone were Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez, and Jorge Posada.
If the game was so obviously over, why was Scott Proctor brought in? The Yankees currently have the following bullpen:
T.J. Beam
Brian Bruney
Octavio Dotel
Kyle Farnsworth
Sean Henn
Jeff Karstens
Mike Myers
Scott Proctor
Darrell Rasner
Mariano Rivera
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Jaret Wright
Scratch Mo, who’s working his way back from a muscle strain. Scratch Villlone too, who has been acknowledged as perhaps slightly fatigued. Hell, scratch Bruney, Henn, and Dotel since they had pitched Tuesday night. You still had SEVEN other options with an 8-0 lead to get 6 outs before allowing eight runs. Instead, Torre went to Proctor, who leads all of baseball in appearances and innings and pitches by a reliever, in a low leverage situation. The same Scott Proctor who had pitched in two of the previous three games, once with a six run lead. With Mo ailing and Kyle Farnsworth being Kyle Farnsworth, there’s a chance that Proctor may be the Yankees’ most useful reliever if they get to the postseason. Why Joe? Why?
Eh, enough whining. It was a nice win to take the series against a Kansas City team that’s been playing pretty well since the All Star Break. Yanks have a day off today, then open up a 3 game series in Baltimore.
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