Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Defense Edition)
Before getting to the pitching, here’s a quick look at how the 2008 Yankees performed defensively compared to their projections. For my defensive statistics, I use zone rating. If you want to read more about how these numbers are calculated you can read this post or this post. If you want a good general overview of zone rating, read this article by Chris Dial.
First up, here’s how I had the Yankees projected on a team level at each position compared to how they actually ended up doing.
Anyone that wants to look at the details behind the defensive projections can check out this entry so I won’t rehash all that here.
Here’s a rundown by position.
Catcher
rvTE +/-: Run value of throwing errors
rvFE +/-: Run value of fielding errors
rvWP+PB+/-: Run value of wild pitches and passed balls
rvSBA+/-: Run value of stolen base attempts
rvSB+/-: Run value of stolen bases
rvCS+/-: Run value of caught stealings
RSAA: Runs saved above average
Jorge Posada’s a very valuable player at catcher, but that’s because of his bat. His defense is usually average or slightly below average. Posada’s injury led to Jose Molina playing a lot more than expected. As we know, he hit like 1991 Bob Geren, but his glove was outstanding. Using my catcher defense system, he was the best defensive catcher in the AL, and second in MLB behind Jason Kendall.
Posada’s shoulder problems led him to be awful, 5 runs below average in just 234 innings. It’s going to be tough to project the 2009 Yankees without knowing if Posada can handle catching the majority of the time. If he can’t throw better than he did in 2008, he probably gives back the majority of his offensive value on defense.
First Base
G: Games
GS: Games started
INN: Defensive innings at position
Ch: Fieldable chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
ZR: Zone rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays made
AvgPM: Plays made by an average defender over the same # of chances
Diff: PM - AvgPM
RS: Runs saved above average (Diff times run value of play not made)
This projected to be a sore spot defensively because Jason Giambi is just not a good defender. Giambi had a ZR of .801 compared to his projected .796, which is basically the same thing. The Richie Sexson pickup cost the Yankees another four runs at 1B in just 19 games. Nice.
Replacing Giambi with an average defender is probably a ten run upgrade. If they replace him with Teixeira it’s probably close to a 15 run defensive upgrade.
Second Base
Robinson Cano had a very strange season on both sides of the ball. We know he hit like garbage for most of the year. What’s interesting about his defense is he was actually playing very well through July 9, as detailed here. Cano went from a zone rating of .865 and a runs saved above average of +8 to a zone rating of .799 and a runs saved above average of -8 in a span of 49 games. From September 5 on he seemed to recover, putting up a zone rating of .884 and saving 4 runs above average over the rest of the season.
Cano will probably project as an average defender next year instead of a plus defender because of this year, but that’d be a 5 run upgrade.
Third Base
If you just look at the runs saved total for Rodriguez it may seem like he was disappointing, but it’s interesting to note that his zone rating of .786 is actually the highest of his career at 3B. So what happened? The average AL 3B zone rating shot way up to .791 this year, after being about .767 from 2004 - 2007. In a league where .767 is average, Rodriguez would have been a +6 defender.
Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit were both craptacular in limited action, and that’s the main reason 3B was so negative overall. As someone who thought an Ensberg/Betemit platoon could approach league average when Rodriguez opted out, let’s just say it’s a good thing I’m not running the Yankees…
Rodriguez probably won’t be any better defensively next year. At his age we should expect him to lose a run or two of value defensively, so I’d say we should expect 3B to be 2 runs worse next year.
Shortstop
He’s the poster boy for defensive ineptitude, and many of the people who use defensive metrics can barely contain their glee when using them to tear apart his game, but Derek Jeter had a good defensive season this year if you believe zone rating. Whether it was an offseason training regimen that improved his agility, better positioning, or a more favorable distibution of balls in play, the difference between last year was stark, both statistically and visually. Realistically we shouldn’t expect it to happen again in 2009, but he was projected around a -10 coming into 2008, and probably will project to be a -6 or -7 in 2009. 2008 Jeter was more valuable than 2007 Jeter because of the glove.
With the AG gone, backup SS is looking like a problem next year. Cody Ransom did not impress in Fenway defensively.
Left Field
I thought Johnny Damon would end up better in LF and for a while he was above average before falling off, but if he’s the LF next year he should be average or slightly below. Xavier Nady didn’t really impress in LF, but for his career he’s been an average RF (-2 LF in a very small sample size). Hideki Matsui has to be a full-time DH at this point. He was awful this year in LF, and his knees won’t help that.
Center Field
We all know Melky couldn’t hit this year, but he did play solid defense. Damon wasn’t awful in CF, although I doubt he could hold up full-time. Brett Gardner only got 22 games in CF, but his ZR was ridiculously good and he saved 3 runs in very limited time. While I still am not sold on him being able to hit enough to be a starting CF, if his glove and baserunning are as good as they appear to be, it’s very possible he can start in CF with a slightly below average bat. It depends on how below average he is of course.
Right Field
Coming into 2008, Bobby Abreu projected to be about average in RF. Instead he was the absolute worst defensive player in the AL according to zone rating. Abreu’s not obviously bad as far as making errors, but he’s extremely tentative and just doesn’t seem to get to balls that most other players get to. Still, he’s probably not as bad of a defender as his 2008 stats make him look. If I had to project him next year I’d probably project him around a -10 or so. If I were the Yankees I’d still offer him arbitration and hope he declines, because he probably will still be a pretty good player next year if you get stuck with him. I wouldn’t entertain the thought of signing him to a multi-year extension though. Xavier Nady should be able to fill RF next year and play average or slightly below average defense, although he’s not going to hit like Abreu has.
So going into 2008, the Yankees looked to be about two wins worse than an average defense. They actually wound up four wins worse, and that’s almost entirely on Abreu. They should be able to upgrade 1B fairly easily (let’s say +10), Cano should be better at 2B(+5), Jeter will likely be a fair bit worse(-10), Rodriguez and Damon will probably be a little worse(-4 combined). CF depends on if they go with Melky/Gardner or bring someone in(??), and Nady should be better than 2008 Abreu(+15). If Posada is the catcher, that’s a defensive hit(-15).
So minus CF, adding all that up we get +1 compared to 2008. So yeah, don’t expect a much better defense next year.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Offense Edition)
Coming into this season, the Yankees looked to be a contender for best team in baseball. Although they were taking a calculated risk in relying on some very young pitchers, they were returning the bulk of a team that has scored 968 runs last year. Even with expected declines in their older players, they still projected to have the best offense in baseball.
When I ran the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, they were the best team in the AL in most of the projection systems I used. When I looked at the position players and the pitching staff I arrived at the same basic conclusion, the the Yankees should have won somewhere between 93-97 games.
As we all know, things didn’t work out that way. The question I want to look at is why? Were the projections wrong? Was it injuries? Was it a lack of testicular fortitude? Let’s see if we can figure it out.
The projections I’ll be referencing here are the composite projections of several different systems, as detailed in this February blog entry. I’m going to go through position by position looking at the projected starters compared to what the actual primary starters ended up doing, then looking at the bench as a unit.
One other thing, while offense in the AL was down for most of this year compared to last year, the difference has narrowed signficantly of late to the point that it’s probably no longer statistically significant. The league average line of .268/.336/.420 equates to a BR/650 of 80 this season compared last year’s line of .271/.338/.423 which equates to a BR/650 of 81. The BR(batting runs) I’ll be using here are context-neutral raw batting runs using linear weights, not position-adjusted or adjusted for base-out states.
Catcher
Coming off his career year in 2007, Jorge Posada was projected to give back a fair amount of value in 2008. Posada was projected to hit .286/.380/.469, a performance that would have been worth 76 batting runs according to linear weights using my assumed 500 plate appearances.
Posada went down to a shoulder injury after just 195 PA, which made Jose Molina (Molino for the regulars) the primary starter. While Molino had a strong defensive season, he hit like crap. Molina hit .216/.263/.313 over 297 PA, which was worth 21 batting runs. The difference between Posada’s projection and Molina’s actual performance as the primary starter was 55 runs, which was a 5.5 win underperformance. BTW, disparities in playing time at all the positions will be accounted for when we get to the bench.
First Base
Another risk the Yankees took entering 2008 was that Jason Giambi would be able to
-Out-produce a disastrous 2007
-Play passable defense at first base
-Stay healthy all season
If you had asked me the likelihood of all three of those things happening, I’d have put it around the same likelihood as Mike Mussina winning 20 games.
Giambi managed to achieve all three things for the most part. His glove was bad, but not horrifically bad, and he was productive and healthy for most of the year, although 45% of his production came in the 45 games from April 22 - Jun 17 where he hit .319/.441/.694 (40 BR). Over the other 100 games he played, he hit .213/.342/.414 (48 BR). I don’t know if this type of split is particularly meaningful, so consider it just a random factoid.
The 2008 projections for Giambi weren’t bad on a rate basis (.245/.387/.474) but his playing time projections were pretty pessimistic (300 PA). He projected to be worth about 46 batting runs because of that. Instead, Giambi hit for a little more power but a little less OBP (.247/.373/.502), but thanks to exceeding his playing time projections he was far more valuable than he projected to be, exceeding his projected batting runs by 42 runs, a 4.2 win offensive upgrade. The 2008 Yankees’ underperformance from their pre-season projections can’t be laid at Giambi’s feet.
Second Base
Pass.
Well, I wish I could pass anyway. Robinson Cano seemed to be on the cusp of becoming the best 2B in the AL. Cano projected to hit .308/.348/.482 and play plus defense and was at an age where he could still realistically be expected to improve. Cano’s projected offense over 585 plate appearances would have made him worth 84 batting runs. Instead, Cano digressed in just about every facet of his game, hitting .271/.305/.410 over 634 PA, which was only worth 68 BR. This was a downgrade of 1.6 wins.
Third Base
Boo.
Alex Rodriguez was justifiably the AL’s MVP in 2007. He was rightfully expected to regress somewhat in 2008, projected to hit .300/.406/.574 over 650 PA, which would have been worth 123 batting runs. On a rate basis, he basically hit his projection, but thanks to a leg injury that cost him 56 PA compared to his projection, he was 14 runs less valuable than projected, a downgrade of 1.4 wins. It’s also a fact that Rodriguez’s performance in more crucial plate appearances were less productive than his context-neutral numbers show. This was not a problem exclusive to Rodriguez, so I’ll devote a section to that as well.
Shortstop
Derek Jeter came into 2008 projected to hit .307/.379/.438 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 86 BR. A late hot streak pushed him closer to his projections as he ended the season at .300/.363/.408 over 668 PA, a total of 82 BR. He was less valuable than projected on a rate basis, but by exceeding his projected playing time his overall value was only about four runs less than projected.
Left Field
Johnny Damon was shifted to LF due to his defensive decline, the seeming emergence of Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui’s bad knees. This looked like a disaster in the making coming off a poor offensive 2007, although it did also seem like a defensive upgrade. Damon projected to hit .280/.353/.423 over 585 PA, a line that would have been worth 78 batting runs. He blew that away by hitting .303/.375/.461 over 623 PA. So like first base, left field ended up as a net gain on the pre-season projections, to the tune of 15 runs, or 1.5 wins.
Center Field
After a promising rookie season, Melky Cabrera declined in 2007. The projections expected him to bounce back, thanks in part to his youth. Melky was projected to hit .282/.344/.406 over 550 PA for a total of 68 BR. Instead, he got even worse, hitting .249/.301/.341 over 453 PA before mercifully being demoted to Scranton. Cabrera’s line was a downgrade of 27 BR, or 2.7 wins. And that’s all I have to say about that.
Right Field
Bobby Abreu came into 2008 projected to hit .277/.383/.439 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 89 BR. He exceeded that by hitting .296/.371/.471 over 684 PA, worth a total of 101 BR. Luckily for Abreu, we’re ignoring defense for now, and this was an offensive upgrade of 12 runs or 1.2 wins.
Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui was penciled in as the primary DH coming into 2008 and his projection was pretty good, .287/.367/.477 over 500 PA, equivalent to around 74 BR. Unfortunately, after a hot start to the season, Matsui’s knees gave out on him and he missed a significant part of the season and when he managed to come back was very unproductive, ending 2008 with a line of .294/.370/.424 over 378 PA for a total of 50 BR. That’s a 24 run/2.4 win falloff.
So just looking at the starting nine, we see that the Yankees projected to hit .289/.372/.465 over 4870 PA, which would have been worth 724 BR. Instead, the starting nine hit .280/.352/.443 over 4896 PA, for a total of 653 BR. That’s a 71 run drop off or 7.1 win drop off.
The Bench
Projecting the bench is usually tricky, but at least on paper the Yankee bench looked to be serviceable this year, with Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Jose Molina, Shelley Duncan, Brett Gardner, Alberto Gonzalez, Nick Green, Jason Lane and Chris Woodward the likely candidates to see playing time. I had the bench projected to hit .247/.319/.404 over 1811 PA, which would have been worth 209 BR. Instead, the collection of Betemit, Ensberg, Posada, Duncan, Gardner, Gonzalez, Justin Christian, Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, Chad Moeller, Xavier Nady, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Chris Stewart and Cody Ransom hit over .244/.306/.380 over 1339 PA for a total of 140 BR. That’s a 69 run underperformance.
Clutchness
Regular watchers of the 2008 Yankees as well as regular readers of this blog also know from a variety of different methods that the Yankees underperformed with runners on base. Using the method I like best (Fangraph’s batting runs above average based on run expectancy), here’s a look at how the Yankees’ players context neutral batting runs compared to their contextualized batting runs in 2008.
Overall, the difference was small, but I think we can all pick out several games where the Yankees failure to come up with hits in big spots cost them wins.
cnBRAA: context-neutral batting runs above average.
cxtBRAA: contextualized batting runs above average.
Diff: cxtBRAA - cnBRAA.
I don’t know how good or bad the team baserunning has been aside from stolen bases, which are already included in the batting runs above, so we’ll assume they were average.
Let’s roll all that up.
So we had a team that was supposed to score 933 runs or so. Their starting nine created 71 fewer runs than expected, and their bench created 69 fewer than expected, for a total shortfall of around 141 runs. Subract another three runs for unclutchness.
933 run projection - 141 actual underperformance - 3 clutchness = 789.
How many runs did the 2008 Yankees score? 789. That’s creepy, huh?
If you were to rate the biggest reasons for the Yankees’ offensive underperformance, it’d be:
1) Losing Jorge Posada (55 runs)
2) Melky Cabrera sucking ass (27 runs)
3) Hideki Matsui’s knee causing him to both miss time and to underperform when he returned (24 runs)
4) Robinson Cano becoming Wayne Tolleson (16 runs)
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy
My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me. Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral. Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced. The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it.
BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.
What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores. Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.
Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.
Here’s the offense.
Here are the starting pitchers.
Here are the relievers.
And here’s everyone.
These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that. Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.
C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6
So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated). Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.
These numbers are against average, not replacement level. Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.
This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA. An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.
Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.
And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.
And the bottom 25.
Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Putting Linear Weights in Context
As most of the readers here are probably aware, my favorite method for evaluating offensive performance is using batting runs as calculated by linear weights. Linear weights are flexible, thorough, and can be easily manipulated to compare players to average players, replacement-level players, and players who play the same position.
The key to linear weights is understanding that every positive or negative outcome has a commensurate run value. Since runs are the key to winning baseball games, linear weights gives us what I think is the bulk of the information we need to look at why teams score or don’t score, which then tells us why they win or lose.
However, this year, the Yankees have exposed some of the flaws in using a context-neutral statistic like linear weights when looking back at past performance. The normal linear weights formula assume that every single is worth a certain amount, every double is worth a certain amount, every out is worth a certain amount, etc., However, we all know this isn’t really true in real life. A single with runners on second and third is worth more than a single with the bases empty, but in the normal linear weights formula, they’re treated equally.
That’s fine if you are trying to assess the skill level of players, but it’s not quite as useful when looking back at results retroactively. I messed around with the Hardball Times’s version of clutch as defined by Bill James but reader feedback and some more thinking led me to realize that it’s fairly limited. So then I looked at some situational splits using wOBA which I liked better, but that’s more of a rate stat and less useful when trying to look at what it means as far as runs.
I am still morally opposed to WPA because I think it’s far too timing and teammate dependent.
Thankfully, there’s a way to make linear weights more useful in retroactive analysis by contextualizing them. To do this, I’m going to use the information from this study by Tango Tiger called linear weights by men on base. The subject here is coincidentally enough how linear weights value differ based on the different baserunner states. You could take this out to a more precise extreme by factoring in the out states but I think that’s a lot of extra work for very little additional payoff.
So what I did is use the matrix from the article linked above and split out every hitter’s performances in the eight different baserunner states.
-No one on
-Runner on first
-Runner on second
-Runner on third
-Runners on first and second
-Runners on first and third
-Runners on second and third
-Bases loaded
If you look at the chart in the linked article, you can see for example that a single with no one on base is worth .29 runs, and a single with the bases loaded is worth 1.38 runs. So I ran the splits for each of the eight situations above for 2008, and calculated the batting runs per out for each of the eight splits for each player as well as for the average player. Then players are compared to the average player in each splits and their batting runs above average for each of the eight splits are added to get their contextual linear weights value. This is compared to their context-neutral linear weights to get a difference. The bigger the difference, the more productive a player in situations with runners on base. I’m going to use comparisons to average here instead of comparisons to replacement level, and I’m not position-adjusting for now.
One other thing I like about this is it accounts for the fact that strikeouts are more damaging in certain situations. With none on, a strikeout is no worse than any other out (-0.2 runs). Put a runner on third though, and a strikeout is worth -0.48 runs compared to -0.29 for other types of outs.
One issue I have with this data is the data source I’m using (David Pinto’s Day by Day Splits Database) does not differentiate performance for players who’ve played on multiple teams, so I am going to exclude people like Xavier Nady and Richie Sexson in this initial run through, although I can modify my start and end dates to include just their Yankee tenure later on.
So, without further ado, here’s what this measure says for the players who have only seen MLB time with the Yankees this year.
None on: Batting runs above average with no one one base.
1—: Batting runs above average with a runner on first.
-2-: Batting runs above average with a runner on second.
—3: Batting runs above average with a runner on third.
12-: Batting runs above average with runners on first and second.
1-3: Batting runs above average with runners on first and third.
-23: Batting runs above average with runners on second third.
123: Batting runs above average with the bases loaded.
cTotal: contextual linear weights total (all 8 of the above added together)
cnTotal: context-neutral linear weights batting runs above average.
Diff: cTotal - cnTotal
A positive difference between cTotal and cnTotal indicates a player was more productive with runners on base. Alex Rodriguez has been less productive with runners on base this year, and that’s indisputable. However, he’s still been the most valuable offensive player on the Yankees. His critics will ignore that and cherry-pick the numbers that “prove” their point, but they’re wrong.
Bobby Abreu has been more productive this season than his raw numbers show. His defense still stinks though.
Jason Giambi’s hit poorly with runners in scoring position, but he’s done well with runners on first and overall he’s not been as bad with runners on as his RISP numbers make him look.
Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Derek Jeter haven’t been much different with runners on vs. not.
Jose Molina, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano have been equal opportunity suckers for the most part, although Cano’s actually been about five runs worse than his context-neutral numbers show.
Just looking at this set of Yanks, we can see that they’ve fallen around 19 runs worse than they should have so far this season given their actual YTD performance and how it’s translated to runs in linear weights. Their context-neutral linear weights runs above average are 44.5, but when you contextualize it they drop to 25 runs above average.
In actuality the Yankees have been only 8 runs better than average, so we still have to account for 17 runs. If we add in Pudge Rodriguez (-6), Alberto Gonzalez (-7), and Xavier Nady (+5), that’s another -8. So we still have nine or so missing runs, which could just be double plays and/or baserunning issues, or a limitation in this model.
Bear in mind, this is above and beyond their actual underperformance compared to their pre-season projections, particularly for Cano and Cabrera.
The other thing this may be useful for is MVP balloting, if I had a vote. Which I don’t. Here’s a look at the MLB leaders in contextual linear weights.
Remember that this is strictly offense and not position-adjusted. Albert Pujols is just a monster. What’s interesting is the gap between him and Lance Berkman narrows if we contextualize it, although Pujols is still having the better season and this ignores Pujols’s significant defensive edge.
Manny and Teixeira’s numbers are spread across leagues, so they’re not realistic MVP candidates.
The name that pops out to me here is Justin Morneau. His raw stats make him look like a bad MVP candidate, but a lot of intelligent Twins fans insist he’s the Twins’ MVP, and if you look at the shape of his production it makes sense. He’s a barely average performer with no one base, but get runners on and he’s above average in just about every split. He’s neck and neck with Kevin Youkilis, who had a slight edge defensively last I checked.
As with other methods I’ve mentioned or read about, I don’t necessarily think this is an ideal way to look at the issue of clutch either, but it may add something to the discussion.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Who is the AL LVP?
Instead of doing what most writers are doing lately and looking at the AL MVP, here's a list of the AL LVP candidates, using position-adjusted batting runs above/below replacement level, defensive runs saved above average by zone rating and pitching runs saved above/below replacement level.| Name | Team | Pos | pBRAR | dRSAA | pRSAR | TR |
| Batista, Miguel | SEA | RP | -24 | -24 | ||
| Mendoza, Luis A | TEX | SP | -24 | -24 | ||
| Silva, Carlos | SEA | SP | -20 | -20 | ||
| Sexson, Richie | SEA/NYA | 1B | 0 | -18 | -18 | |
| Pena, Tony | KC | SS | -17 | 0 | -16 | |
| Gobble, Jimmy | KC | RP | -15 | -15 | ||
| Bonser, Boof | MIN | RP | -15 | -15 | ||
| Vidro, Jose | SEA | DH | -14 | -1 | -15 | |
| Hunter, Tommy | TEX | SP | -12 | -12 | ||
| O'Flaherty, Eric G | SEA | RP | -12 | -12 | ||
| Lamb, Mike | MIN | 3B | -6 | -5 | -11 | |
| Trachsel, Steve | BAL | SP | -11 | -11 | ||
| Tomko, Brett | KC | SP | -10 | -10 | ||
| Balentien, Wladimir | SEA | RF | -6 | -4 | -10 | |
| Bannister, Brian P | KC | SP | -10 | -10 | ||
| Crisp, Coco | BOS | CF | 4 | -13 | -9 | |
| Nippert, Dustin D | TEX | RP | -9 | -9 | ||
| Jennings, Jason | TEX | SP | -8 | -8 | ||
| Kennedy, Ian | NYA | SP | -8 | -8 | ||
| Gallagher, Sean | OAK | SP | -8 | -8 | ||
| Marte, Andy | CLE | 3B | -10 | 2 | -8 | |
| Wood, Brandon | LAA | 3B | -8 | 0 | -8 | |
| Ensberg, Morgan | NYA | 3B | -5 | -3 | -8 | |
| Johjima, Kenji | SEA | C | -9 | 2 | -8 | |
| Monroe, Craig | MIN | DH | -3 | -4 | -7 | |
| Gathright, Joey | KC | CF | -7 | 0 | -7 | |
| Broussard, Ben | TEX | 1B | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Lowe, Mark C | SEA | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Mastny, Tom R | CLE | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Cash, Kevin | BOS | C | -1 | -6 | -7 | |
| Gload, Ross | KC | 1B | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Bootcheck, Chris | LAA | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Hughes, Phil | NYA | SP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Ramirez, Elizardo | TEX | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| German, Esteban | KC | 2B | -3 | -4 | -7 | |
| Liz, Radhames | BAL | SP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Wassermann, Ehren | CHA | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Nomo, Hideo | KC | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Fukumori, Kazuo | TEX | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Fulchino, Jeff P | KC | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Sowers, Jeremy B | CLE | SP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Bazardo, Yorman M | DET | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Aquino, Greg | BAL | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| DiNardo, Lenny E | OAK | RP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Willis, Dontrelle | DET | SP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Mujica, Edward J | CLE | RP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Bynum, Freddie | BAL | SS | -7 | 2 | -5 | |
| Cairo, Miguel | SEA | 1B | -4 | -1 | -5 | |
| Richard, Clayton C | CHA | SP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Bauer, Rick | CLE | RP | -5 | -5 |
pBRAR: Position-adusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
dRSAA: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating
pRSAR: Pitching runs saved above replacement
TR: Total runs (pBRAR + dRSAA + pRSAR)
At least we're not Mariners fans, right?
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Cy Olson
After beating up on the Mariners and getting a five game winning streak going, the WOE showed up again yesterday in an 8-1 loss to Baltimore. Garrett Olson stifled the offense over seven scoreless inning.
Olson is a lefty, and this year the Yankees have hit .242/.317/.347 vs lefties. It seems like the Yankees are facing an inordinate amount of lefties this season so I looked at the splits. Last year, 27% of the Yankees PAs came against lefties. This year, 35% of them have. Whether this is by design by opponents or an early season fluctuation is an open question, but it does explain some of their offensive struggles this season.
Joe Girardi has tried to mitigate this some by playing people like Morgan Ensberg and Shelley Duncan, but it hasn’t worked so far. With Ensberg seemingly on his way out there’s talk of Jason Lane being brought up as another RHB off the bench. Lane’s not exactly a lefty masher (career .231/.310/.469) so I don’t see how that helps.
Here are the individual splits:
Jason Giambi (.220/.429/.439) in 50 PA
Hideki Matsui (.323/.364/.387) in 66 PA
Derek Jeter (.274/.328/.419) in 66 PA
Bobby Abreu (.286/.318/.429) in 66 PA
Johnny Damon (.274/.357/.387) in 70 PA
Robinson Cano (.250/.333/.375) in 61 PA
A. Rodriguez (.233/.361/.333) in 35 PA
Chad Moeller (.278/.381/.278) in 20 PA
S. Duncan (.211/.279/.342) in 42 PA
Jorge Posada (.308/.308/.308) in 13 PA
Melky Cabrera (.177/.246/.306) in 67 PA
W. Betemit (.250/.250/.250) in 8 PA
M. Ensberg (.167/.265/.167) in 34 PA
Jose Molina (.152/.176/.212) in 34 PA
A. Gonzalez (.133/.188/.133) in 16 PA
Chris Stewart (.000/.000/.000) in 3 PA
Ensberg was brough in at least partially because of a career OPS over .900 vs lefties. While 34 PA is too small to write him off, the Yankees may not have the luxury of the time needed to see if he can improve there. Melky is killing them vs. lefties. He has shown a slight platoon split over his career but it’s really bad this year. You’d expect Alex Rodriguez to start hitting them better, which I guess is probably going to be the key.
Anyway, we know the Yankees aren’t going to win every game this year, but with the hole they’re digging themselves every loss is painful. On the plus side, Darrell Rasner again pitched well and this time it was against a team that had recently seen him, which is an encouraging sign going forward. I still don’t think he’s sub 2 ERA good, but if you look at his projections and factor in his YTD performance (MLEs + MLB), there’s a decent chance he’s 4.50 ERA good.
Ian Kennedy goes to the post tonight, trying to build off a decent outing last time. The Orioles will throw another lefty at the Yanks so he’ll need to be good.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Yankee Defense by Zone Rating through May 18, 2008
| Player | Pos | G | INN | PO | A | E | DP | Ch | ZR | Avg ZR | PM | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Giambi, Jason | 1B | 31 | 268.2 | 296 | 13 | 2 | 26 | 59 | .814 | .867 | 48 | 51 | -3 | -3 | -14 |
| Duncan, Shelley | 1B | 8 | 63 | 59 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1.000 | .867 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Ensberg, Morgan | 1B | 6 | 34 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.000 | .867 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 1B | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.000 | .867 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Posada, Jorge | 1B | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .667 | .867 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | -86 |
| Damon, Johnny | 1B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .867 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 43 | 364.2 | 86 | 140 | 4 | 32 | 151 | .841 | .829 | 127 | 125 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | 2B | 3 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .778 | .829 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -24 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 21 | 178 | 15 | 47 | 2 | 6 | 56 | .893 | .800 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| Ensberg, Morgan | 3B | 17 | 124 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 45 | .689 | .800 | 31 | 36 | -5 | -4 | -47 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | 3B | 10 | 53.2 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 14 | .857 | .800 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 3B | 5 | 30 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | .667 | .800 | 10 | 12 | -2 | -2 | -77 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 42 | 352.2 | 98 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 107 | .907 | .901 | 97 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 4 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .714 | .901 | 5 | 6 | -1 | -1 | -48 |
| Damon, Johnny | LF | 33 | 272.1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65 | .892 | .846 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 14 | 113.1 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | .694 | .846 | 25 | 30 | -5 | -5 | -58 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 42 | 353.2 | 77 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 94 | .830 | .867 | 78 | 81 | -3 | -3 | -12 |
| Matsui, Hideki | RF | 3 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | .867 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Duncan, Shelley | RF | 3 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | .867 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 38 | 328.2 | 45 | 95 | 4 | 19 | 113 | .796 | .837 | 90 | 95 | -5 | -3 | -15 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | SS | 5 | 41 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.000 | .837 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 52 |
| Betemit, Wilson | SS | 3 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .833 | .837 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Pos: Position
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Why The Yankees Are Losing
The chart below shows the Yankees' average projections pro-rated to their actual playing time this season on the left. On the right are the actual YTD performance.| Team | NYA | Proj | Actual | |||||||||||
| Starters | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Diff | ||
| Jorge Posada | C | 66 | .293 | .392 | .499 | 11 | 66 | .302 | .333 | .476 | 9 | -2 | ||
| Jason Giambi | 1B | 139 | .256 | .399 | .499 | 23 | 139 | .193 | .345 | .468 | 19 | -3 | ||
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 164 | .312 | .347 | .489 | 24 | 164 | .208 | .256 | .318 | 10 | -13 | ||
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 99 | .300 | .402 | .569 | 18 | 99 | .286 | .343 | .495 | 15 | -4 | ||
| Derek Jeter | SS | 163 | .318 | .388 | .463 | 25 | 163 | .314 | .346 | .431 | 20 | -5 | ||
| Johnny Damon | LF | 175 | .286 | .357 | .438 | 24 | 175 | .257 | .341 | .454 | 24 | 0 | ||
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 158 | .281 | .341 | .403 | 19 | 158 | .262 | .325 | .426 | 19 | 0 | ||
| Bobby Abreu | RF | 176 | .284 | .392 | .461 | 28 | 176 | .288 | .352 | .450 | 23 | -5 | ||
| Hideki Matsui | DH | 163 | .291 | .370 | .489 | 25 | 163 | .306 | .387 | .458 | 24 | -1 | ||
| Starters Total | 1303 | .292 | .373 | .471 | 197 | 1303 | .287 | .336 | .436 | 163 | -34 | |||
| Bench | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Diff | ||
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | 41 | .257 | .322 | .480 | 6 | 41 | .194 | .293 | .250 | 3 | -3 | ||
| Chad Moeller | C | 41 | .231 | .287 | .373 | 4 | 41 | .243 | .317 | .378 | 4 | 0 | ||
| Alberto Gonzalez | SS | 41 | .250 | .300 | .351 | 4 | 41 | .257 | .333 | .314 | 4 | 0 | ||
| Jose Molina | C | 84 | .250 | .287 | .375 | 8 | 84 | .203 | .220 | .304 | 5 | -4 | ||
| Chris Stewart | C | 3 | .250 | .300 | .375 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | -1 | ||
| Morgan Ensberg | 3B | 76 | .261 | .368 | .467 | 11 | 76 | .214 | .276 | .257 | 4 | -7 | ||
| Wilson Betemit | SS | 27 | .265 | .338 | .443 | 4 | 27 | .269 | .296 | .462 | 3 | 0 | ||
| Bench Total | 313 | .256 | .316 | .410 | 36 | 313 | .233 | .275 | .308 | 22 | -14 | |||
| Team Total | 1616 | .285 | .362 | .459 | 233 | 1616 | .258 | .325 | .410 | 186 | -48 |
BR here are batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average). Apart from Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera, every Yankee starter has provided less offense than projected and overall the starters are 34 runs below their expectations. The bench has also significantly underperformed to the tune of 14 runs below expectations.
The Yankees are 48 runs below expectations even accounting for the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. That's five wins, and it at least partially explains why they are 20-23. If the offense had played as expected, they'd be 25-18, which is a 94 win pace and right around where they should have been. Offense is down in the AL by around 11% this season, but the Yankees are scoring 20% less frequently than expected so that's not the whole explanation.
The pitching and defense have not been the problem. The defense is below average but it was supposed to be. The pitching staff has been a little worse than average, but not egregiously so (-2 runs saved above average). It's the lack of offense that's killing this team. Unfortunately, I don't see any moves that can be done to fix that.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Rodriguez/Posada vs. Ensberg/Molina
I realize missing the starting catcher and starting 3B stinks, but it's probably not as bad as it seems. Here's the offensive difference between Alex Rodriguez/Jorge Posada and Morgan Ensberg/Jose Molina using their 2008 projections adjusted with 2008 actual peformance (at a 90% - 10% split).| Comparison | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | BR |
| Rodriguez | .300 | .404 | .570 | 150 | 28 |
| Ensberg | .248 | .363 | .443 | 150 | 21 |
| Comparison | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | BR |
| Posada | .286 | .379 | .468 | 150 | 23 |
| Molina | .243 | .279 | .361 | 150 | 14 |
| Total | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | BR |
| Rodriguez + Posada | .293 | .391 | .519 | 300 | 51 |
| Ensberg + Molina | .245 | .321 | .402 | 300 | 34 |
This is over about a month's worth of playing time. BR = batting runs by linear weights. Defensively, Rodriguez has been much better than Ensberg this year but they both projected to be around average coming into the season so I don't think there's a ton of difference there, maybe a run or two over a month. So the Yankees should lose about a win and a half over the next month if Rodriguez and Posada are both out the whole time.
Phil Hughes was again ineffective last night as the Yankee fell to the Tigers, 6-4, which is disappointing. It doesn't mean that he sucks, or that Cashman should be fired for not trading him for Santana unless you're an impatient and overreactionary fan, but it is disappointing. We have to remember that a) Hughes is the youngest pitcher in the league b) he pitched 70 league average innings last year with the same stuff he has now. He has ALREADY shown the ability to succeed at the major league level, he just needs to make the adjustments to do it again. He may continue struggle to do that, but sending him to Scranton isn't going to help.
Monday, April 21, 2008
April 21 - Yankee Offense Projections vs. Actuals
So the team that I projected to score around 930 runs this year is on pace to score 689, which would rank ninth in the AL if things held up. Here's a look at each player's contributions to that.| Player | pAVG | pOBP | pSLG | pBR | aAVG | aOBP | aSLG | aBR | Brdiff |
| Jose Molina | .243 | .280 | .360 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .528 | 6 | 3 |
| Chad Moeller | .225 | .299 | .348 | 2 | .350 | .435 | .600 | 5 | 3 |
| Hideki Matsui | .287 | .367 | .477 | 11 | .323 | .405 | .523 | 13 | 2 |
| Melky Cabrera | .282 | .344 | .406 | 8 | .281 | .353 | .456 | 10 | 1 |
| Alberto Gonzalez | .253 | .301 | .348 | 2 | .333 | .400 | .467 | 3 | 1 |
| Morgan Ensberg | .248 | .365 | .446 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .500 | 3 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | .243 | .311 | .453 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0 | -1 |
| Johnny Damon | .280 | .353 | .423 | 11 | .215 | .333 | .400 | 10 | -1 |
| Bobby Abreu | .277 | .383 | .439 | 12 | .306 | .367 | .458 | 11 | -1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .300 | .406 | .574 | 16 | .308 | .357 | .551 | 14 | -1 |
| Wilson Betemit | .258 | .333 | .445 | 2 | .154 | .214 | .154 | 0 | -2 |
| Derek Jeter | .307 | .379 | .438 | 8 | .309 | .339 | .418 | 7 | -2 |
| Jorge Posada | .286 | .380 | .469 | 7 | .261 | .306 | .391 | 5 | -2 |
| Jason Giambi | .245 | .387 | .474 | 9 | .109 | .288 | .283 | 5 | -4 |
| Robinson Cano | .308 | .348 | .482 | 12 | .169 | .200 | .234 | 2 | -9 |
| Total | .280 | .362 | .453 | 107 | .265 | .331 | .425 | 93 | -13 |
pAVG: Projected batting average
pOBP: Projected on base percentage
pSLG: Projected slugging average
pBR: Projected batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
aAVG: Actual batting average
aOBP: Actual on base percentage
aSLG: Actual slugging average
aBR: Actual batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
Brdiff: Difference between projected batting runs and actual, pro-rated to actual playing time
There are some rounding issues in the table above so if things don't seem to add up here, trust me, they actually do in Excel. The batting runs are adjusted for actual playing time so it's a direct comparison, but no position-adjusment is included. The Yankee offense theoretically should have scored 13 fewer runs than you'd expect given the allocation of playing time and the players' projections on offense. They're actually even worse than that at 85 runs, thanks to poor hitting in the clutch primarily.
God bless Molino and Moello, or they'd be six runs worse than that. Add in the pitching staff, which has the fifth worst RA in the AL at 4.82 and has saved five fewer runs than average, and you have a 23 run deficit, which is about 2.3 wins. Not coincidentally, they sit 10-10 while log5 says they should have expected to be 11.6 - 8.4 to this point.
For all the crap Giambi's been getting, Cano is the single biggest problem on this team. He's been so bad offensively that even with the +1 defense he's played so far, his overall "value" to the team is -8 runs. Let's hope for a heat wave soon.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Can’t O
I’m stealing my title from Keith’s liveblogs. At first yesterday’s game with the Rays was great. Then, it started to suck. Then it was great again. When it was finally over, the Yankees had an 8-7 win over the the Tampa Bay Rays.
Three solo homers by Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Morgan Ensberg in the first two innings gave the Yankees a quick 3-0 lead. Ian Kennedy gave one run back in the third but the Yankees scored four in the fourth and had a 7-1 lead. Kennedy gave one more run back but got through six with the same 7-2 lead. Kennedy pitched pretty well yesterday, Kennedy threw 94 pitches, 60 for strikes, and got a mix of 10 fly balls, 8 grounders and 3 line drives. He walked just two while fanning four in a very encouraging outing overall. Kennedy took a liner off his hip leading off the seventh and then came the bullpen.
Prior to last night’s game the Yankee bullpen had pitched quite well. They had an overall ERA of 3.09 and had struck out 43 while walking 13 over 46.2 innings. Unfortunately, that must have meant they were due for a bad game and it came last night. Billy Traber relieved Kennedy with three straight lefties due up and a runner on. He got Akinori Iwamura to line out to deep right, then Carl Crawford took him deep to make it a 7-4 game. Traber then hit Carlos Pena and was pulled for Brian Bruney. Bruney gave up back to back homers to B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria (his first MLB homer) and all of a sudden it was 7-7.
In the top of the eighth after Chad Moeller struck out (shocking), Alberto Gonzalez stepped up. Joe Girardi went to his bench for Robinson Cano who had a night off to clear hs head or something. Cano worked the count to 2-1 then hit a moonshot HR that gave the Yanks an 8-7 lead. That would be the last run scored in the game, as Bruney and Mo combined to retire the last six Rays hitters and the Yankees evened their record at 7-7.
After a horrible first start and a middling relief performance, Kennedy’s good start was a breath of fresh air. He’s very likely going to continue to mix in some clunkers but all pitchers do to varying degrees. It was also nice to see Ensberg making the most of what’s been very limited playing time to this point. I don’t think Jason Giambi is completely done despite his low average so far, but I’d like to see Ensberg get a little more time to see what he can provide.
After a painful series in Fenway it was a nice win. I’m still not expecting the Yankees to leave April with a record much better than .500 but I would like to see certain players performing better, like Cano especially. Hopefully last night was the start to one of his hot streaks. Rodriguez also had a good game, going 4-5 with the aforementioned HR, after what’s been a relatively disappointing start to the season.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Oh Where, Oh Where Has My Little Offense Gone?
While my head knows that nine games is still way too small of a sample size to draw undue distinctions from, it sure didn’t feel like it while I watched the again punchless Yankees fall to Kansas City 4-0 last night. Granted, sometimes you run into a Roy Halladay. Sometimes you run into A.J. Burnett. Sometimes you run into Dustin McGowan. Sometimes you run into Andy Sonnastine. Sometimes you run into Edwin Jackson. Sometimes you run into James Shields. Sometimes you run into Jason Hammel. Sometimes you run into Brian Bannister. Sometimes you run into Zach Greinke. But come on, ALL NINE OF THEM?
With a forecast of rain all night, Joe Girardi pulled Ian Kennedy from starting the game and went with Brian Bruney to start the game. The reason given was so that they wouldn’t start the game with Kennedy and then lose him if the rain stopped the game. Considering the grief Girardi got for bringing back Josh Johnson from a long rain delay when he managed the Marlins in 2006 and Johnson’s subsequent breakdown which may or not have been related, this was pretty interesting out of the box thinking. For the most part it seemed to work well, although it likely cost the Yankees the use of Bruney and Farnsworth in today’s game. That’s probably bad in the former case but not necessarily so in the latter case. Kennedy ended up pitching the 6th through 8th, starting off poorly but finishing off pretty well.
The pitching didn’t really matter because the offense continued to stink. Here’s how the Yankees rate by position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights to this point.
Matsui : 2
Abreu : 1.5
Rodriguez : 0.7
Molina : 0.3
Gonzalez : 0.2
Cabrera : 0.1
Ensberg : -0.5
Damon : -0.5
Duncan : -0.5
Betemit : -1
Jeter : -1.5
Posada : -1.9
Giambi : -2.4
Cano : -4.4
How is Damon not worse? Hey Robinson, feel free to stop sucking. How bad has Cano been? Here are the five worst offensive players so far in the AL this season by position-adjusted BRAA:
Crawford : -4.3
Johjima : -4.3
Ortiz : -4.3
Cano : -4.4
Polanco : -4.6
Only Placido Polanco has been worse. He’s in good company with David Ortiz and Carl Crawford at least.
Like I said, it’s still too early to panic, but it’s probably not too early to get irritated or annoyed.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Kansas City Here We Come
Behind Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina the Yankees took the final game of their series with Tampa last night, 6-1., salvaging a series split after losing the first two games. Moose was brilliant, allowing just two hits and one run over six innings. Tampa doesn’t look to have a great offense this season, but they are probably middle of the pack and have some dangerous players in the lineup, so this was a very encouraging outing. Moose’s fastball sat around 85 most of the night, but he had a great slow curve going that helped him keep the Rays off balance. I feel a little more comfortable that Mussina will be serviceable after this game than I did after his first start.
Abreu started the offense off with a two-run HR in the first inning, one of his three hits and a walk on the night. Hideki Matsui also chipped in a couple of hits.
The news wasn’t all good as Derek Jeter left the game with a strained quad and is being listed as day-to-day. While losing Jeter hurts, it shouldn’t be for too long. Also, having Wilson Betemit to replace him instead of my beloved Miguel Cairo makes it sting a little less. With Jason Giambi seemingly unavailable this looks like Morgan Ensberg’s chance for some PT. He hasn’t looked good at scooping throws at first although he seems pretty good at fielding batted balls.
LaTroy Hawkins finally pitched a full scoreless inning as a Yankee. I’m willing to give Hawkins a bit of a long leash because he has a long track record of being useful and he seems like a good guy, as well as our experience with Luis Vizcaino last year. It seems like the fans at the Stadium don’t care about that because he’s had the audacity to wear Paul O’Neill’s number. Hopefully he can get himself sorted out.
Next up, a three game set with the Kansas City Royals. They’re 4-2 and in second place in the AL Central.
To hammer home how early it is, here’s how the final AL standings would look if each team played to their PythagenPat record for the rest of the season.
AL East
TOR 121-41
BAL 98-64
TB 94-68
NYA 65-97
BOS 57-105
AL Central
CHA 105-57
KC 101-61
CLE 78-84
MIN 57-105
DET 26-136
AL West
TEX 94-68
OAK 90-72
LAA 84-78
SEA 76-86
Somewhere Steve Phillips is weeping.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Position Player Wrapup
So now that I've gone through the position players, it's time to close out what the outlook is on a team level. To do that I've built depth charts on offense and defense which we can use as a rough gauge,Offensively, there's little question that the Yankees are probably the most talented team in baseball. The one question that could impact that is the health of their regulars given their ages. Projections of single players are for the most part objective, but when we try to roll them up into a team-wide performance we will run into subjective issues with playing time, so keep that in mind.
This is my projected lineup for the Yankees this year. I am basing the playing time on their projected playing time with some downward adjustments for potential injuries. I am allocating total playing time based on expected outs by each player, with the assumption that the team will have 27 outs per game minus about 80 outs to account for ninth innings in home victories, so a total of 4294 outs. I didn't subtract more outs than that to account for extra innings.
The projections below are the average of five systems (CHONE, MARCEL, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO). The last column (BR) is batting runs by linear weights. There are no position adjustments or comparisons to average in the batting runs calculated here, since I am looking for a total number.
| Starters | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | Outs | BR |
| Johnny Damon | LF | .280 | .353 | .423 | 585 | 379 | 78 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | .307 | .379 | .438 | 600 | 373 | 86 |
| Bobby Abreu | RF | .277 | .383 | .439 | 600 | 370 | 89 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | .300 | .406 | .574 | 650 | 386 | 123 |
| Jason Giambi | 1B | .245 | .387 | .474 | 300 | 184 | 46 |
| Jorge Posada | C | .286 | .380 | .469 | 500 | 310 | 76 |
| Hideki Matsui | DH | .287 | .367 | .477 | 500 | 316 | 74 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .308 | .348 | .482 | 585 | 381 | 84 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | .282 | .344 | .406 | 550 | 361 | 68 |
| Starters Total | .289 | .372 | .465 | 4870 | 3060 | 724 |
I can't account for the event of catastrophic injury here, so I tried to spread the injury risk among everyone with the exception of Giambi, who I'm assuming will be restricted to around 300 plate appearances. Outs are just calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA.
Here's how the bench looks.
| Bench | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | Outs | BR |
| Wilson Betemit | 3B | .258 | .333 | .445 | 350 | 233 | 46 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 1B | .248 | .365 | .446 | 290 | 184 | 40 |
| Jose Molina | C | .243 | .280 | .360 | 250 | 180 | 23 |
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | .243 | .311 | .453 | 250 | 172 | 32 |
| Brett Gardner | OF | .253 | .325 | .327 | 150 | 101 | 15 |
| Alberto Gonzalez | SS | .253 | .301 | .348 | 140 | 98 | 13 |
| Nick Green | UT | .246 | .308 | .397 | 129 | 89 | 14 |
| Jason Lane | OF | .235 | .311 | .414 | 127 | 87 | 15 |
| Chris Woodward | UT | .234 | .294 | .339 | 125 | 88 | 11 |
| Bench Total | .247 | .312 | .404 | 1811 | 1234 | 209 |
I have no idea if any of Jason Lane, Nick Green or Chris Woodward will see any playing time but I figure they will be stashed at Scranton so there's at least some possibility of it. What should be obvious is that the Yankees have two potentially strong bench players in Betemit and Ensberg, who both project well enough to be starters at their respective positions. That helps mitigate any potential injuries in the infield with Betemit's ability to cover any position and with Ensberg presumably able to cover 3B and 1B.
Add it up, and here's what you get.
| Team Total | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | Outs | BR |
| Starters + Bench | .277 | .355 | .448 | 6681 | 4294 | 933 |
The sigma on a team's runs scored in a season is around 30, so that puts the Yankees in a range of 903-963 runs scored this year on paper using the projections I'm using and the playing time assumptions I'm using.
Looking at baserunning using Lee Panas's bases gained above average, here's how the players that Lee had data for did last year:
| Player | Team | BGAA Hits | BGAA Ground | BGAA Air | BGAA Other | BGAA Total |
| Damon | NYA | 3.7 | 2.3 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 33.6 |
| Rodriguez | NYA | 11.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 11.1 | 28.1 |
| Abreu | NYA | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 8.7 |
| Jeter | NYA | 9 | -3.6 | 1.3 | -3 | 3.7 |
| Matsui | NYA | 4.5 | 1.5 | -2.3 | -2.8 | 0.9 |
| Cabrera | NYA | 4.9 | 2.6 | -6.9 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| Cano | NYA | 4.6 | 6 | -5.3 | -8.7 | -3.4 |
| Giambi | NYA | -9.1 | 0.5 | -1 | -0.6 | -10.3 |
| Posada | NYA | -7.5 | -5 | -5.1 | -0.6 | -18.2 |
| Ensberg | NYA | -6.3 | 2.8 | -2.4 | -0.2 | -6.1 |
| 16.7 | 11 | -1.2 | 9.8 | 36.2 |
A team total of 36 would be worth an additional 10 runs, but we should regress that towards average since we only have one year of data. Let's assume the Yankees will be about 5 runs better than average on the bases this year.
So we've got 933 runs at the plate and another 5 on the bases, but unfortunately, we're not quite done yet.
Projecting defense is tricky, but I'm going to take a stab at it anyway. Using zone rating projections and defensive depth charts, here's how that looks.
First up, the expected starters. A full season is about 1450 defensive innings.
| Starters | POS | Inn | Proj CH | Proj ZR | Proj PM | Avg ZR | Avg PM | PMAA | RSAA |
| Jason Giambi | 1B | 500 | 96 | .796 | 77 | .841 | 81 | -4 | -3 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 1300 | 479 | .833 | 399 | .823 | 394 | 5 | 4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 1300 | 392 | .758 | 298 | .761 | 298 | -1 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 1300 | 487 | .806 | 392 | .825 | 402 | -9 | -7 |
| Johnny Damon | LF | 1000 | 257 | .869 | 223 | .862 | 222 | 2 | 1 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 1100 | 361 | .898 | 324 | .885 | 320 | 5 | 4 |
| Bobby Abreu | RF | 1300 | 325 | .864 | 280 | .868 | 282 | -1 | -1 |
| Total | 13050 | 2397 | 1993 | 1999 | -5 | -4 |
POS: Position
Inn: Defensive innings
Proj CH: Projected chances
Proj ZR: Projected zone rating
Proj PM: Projected plays made
Avg ZR: Average projected ZR at POS
Avg PM: Average plays made
PMAA: Plays made above average
RSAA: Runs saved above average
That looks like the best defensive team the Yankees have run out there in a while, with only Giambi and Jeter as big minuses. In Giambi's case he probably won't play enough to really hurt the team, and in Jeter's case the more he plays the more he bats so I guess it's not really all that bad.
Filling in the remaining innings with bench guys, here's what I get.
| Bench | POS | Inn | Proj CH | Proj ZR | Proj PM | Avg ZR | Avg PM | PMAA | RSAA |
| Wilson Betemit | 1B | 400 | 77 | .816 | 63 | .841 | 65 | -2 | -2 |
| Wilson Betemit | 2B | 80 | 29 | .813 | 24 | .823 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| Wilson Betemit | 3B | 50 | 15 | .786 | 12 | .761 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Wilson Betemit | SS | 100 | 37 | .793 | 30 | .825 | 31 | -1 | -1 |
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | 100 | 19 | .834 | 16 | .841 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | LF | 50 | 13 | .871 | 11 | .862 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | RF | 50 | 12 | .875 | 11 | .868 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Lane | LF | 50 | 13 | .869 | 11 | .862 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Lane | CF | 200 | 66 | .833 | 55 | .885 | 58 | -3 | -3 |
| Jason Lane | RF | 100 | 25 | .828 | 21 | .868 | 22 | -1 | -1 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 1B | 450 | 87 | .816 | 71 | .841 | 73 | -2 | -2 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 3B | 90 | 27 | .791 | 21 | .761 | 21 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Green | 2B | 40 | 15 | .804 | 12 | .823 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Green | SS | 40 | 15 | .825 | 12 | .825 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Woodward | 2B | 30 | 11 | .807 | 9 | .823 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Woodward | 3B | 10 | 3 | .846 | 3 | .761 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Woodward | SS | 10 | 4 | .842 | 3 | .825 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Hideki Matsui | LF | 350 | 90 | .833 | 75 | .862 | 78 | -3 | -2 |
| Johnny Damon | CF | 150 | 49 | .881 | 43 | .885 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
The Yankee bench may end up hitting pretty well for a bench, but they don't look to field particularly well.
Let's add in the catchers:
| Catchers | Inn | SB | CS | CS% | PBWPR | TER | FER | Tot R | R/140 |
| Posada | 1022 | 83 | 31 | 27% | -2 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -4 |
| Molina | 428 | 20 | 14 | 40% | -2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -8 |
And let's then add it all up.
| Pos | Inn | Proj CH | Proj ZR | Proj PM | Avg ZR | Avg PM | PMAA | RS |
| 1B | 1450 | 279 | .810 | 226 | .841 | 235 | -9 | -7 |
| 2B | 1450 | 534 | .831 | 443 | .823 | 439 | 4 | 3 |
| 3B | 1450 | 438 | .762 | 333 | .761 | 333 | 1 | 0 |
| SS | 1450 | 543 | .806 | 438 | .825 | 448 | -10 | -8 |
| LF | 1450 | 373 | .860 | 321 | .862 | 321 | -1 | -1 |
| CF | 1450 | 476 | .887 | 423 | .885 | 422 | 1 | 1 |
| RF | 1450 | 362 | .862 | 312 | .868 | 314 | -2 | -2 |
| C | 1450 | -7 | ||||||
| Total | 11600 | 3005 | .831 | 2496 | .836 | 2513 | -17 | -13 |
So overall, the Yankees are projecting to be about 13 runs worse than an average team defensively, which seems bad but for them is pretty good considering some of the teams that they've run out there recently.
So what do all these dorky numbers really mean? The Yankee position players project to score about 938 runs and allow 13 runs more than an average team. According to my Diamond Mind projections which should be released sometime around March 24, the average non-Yankee AL team projects to score 786 runs and be average defensively (shocking, I realize).
938 - 13 - 786 = 139
So the Yankee position players project to be about 14 wins better than an average (81 win team). Now injury or a bigger decline than projected could certainly affect those numbers, but then again a meteor could hit earth and make it all moot too. 81 + 14 = 95 wins. The next question will be whether the pitching staff is going to be able to do their part, which I'll try and answer over the next couple of weeks.
Update: In case any one wants to mess around with different playing times, I've made a spreadsheet that you can use. You can download it here. You can change the players and plate appearances on offense, and on defense you can mess around with innings and positions.
For offense, the projected outs should = the expected outs, you'll have to adjust the plate appearances to get to that. On defense, defensive innings at a position should sum up to 1450.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Bench
We've gone through the likely starters for the 2008 Yankees, so now it's time to take a look at the guys on the bench. I won't look back at 2007 for these guys, I'll just look at what they project to do this year.Wilson Betemit
Scott Proctor and his tattered arm were shipped to Los Angeles of Los Angeles last season to acquire Betemit. Betemit's a fairly young player who was once a highly touted prospect in the Braves' farm system. Although he's a switch-hitter, he has exhibited a very significant platoon split in his career.
Vs RHP: .268/.347/.464 in 800 PA
Vs LHP: .232/.281/.353 in 227 PA
Now, 227 plate appearances aren't enough to give us a solid window of Betemit's actual skill vs LHP. The sigma on his OPS vs lefties is .149, so we can say we can estimate his true talent OPS against lefties to be somewhere in the range of .485 - .783. So it's tough to say that Betemit is really a platoon player just yet.
Here's how Betemit's 2008 projections look. I am comparing him to the average 3B here.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 368 | 331 | 46 | 84 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 89 | 1 | .254 | .329 | .438 | -1 | 9 |
| marcel | 383 | 338 | 47 | 90 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 89 | 1 | .266 | .339 | .453 | 2 | 12 |
| pecota | 265 | 234 | 31 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 69 | 1 | .255 | .331 | .437 | -1 | 6 |
| zips | 336 | 301 | 42 | 78 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 86 | 1 | .259 | .336 | .462 | 2 | 11 |
| cairo | 228 | 200 | 30 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 51 | 1 | .254 | .326 | .428 | -2 | 4 |
| average | 316 | 281 | 39 | 72 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 77 | 1 | .258 | .332 | .443 | 0 | 8 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 228 | 200 | 35 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 44 | 2 | .290 | .382 | .530 | 9 | 15 |
| 65% | 228 | 200 | 33 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 47 | 1 | .272 | .354 | .479 | 3 | 9 |
| Baseline | 228 | 200 | 30 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 51 | 1 | .254 | .326 | .428 | -2 | 4 |
| 35% | 228 | 200 | 27 | 47 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 54 | 0 | .236 | .298 | .377 | -7 | -1 |
| 20% | 228 | 200 | 24 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 58 | 0 | .219 | .270 | .326 | -13 | -7 |
Betemit projects to hit about as well as an average 3B. which is pretty damn good for a backup IF.
Defensively, Betemit could see some time at first base depending on how the great Giambi experiment pans out, or in the late innings for defense, but right now his primarily role will be backing up the entire infield. He's a good bat for an infielder, but reviews are mixed on his defense. The numbers aren't great, but we have the small sample size issue to contend with.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RS/162 |
| 2007 | AL | NYY | 1B | Wilson Betemit | 26 | 14 | 9 | 74 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 18 | .778 | -1 | -1 | -18 |
| 2005 | NL | Atl | 2B | Wilson Betemit | 23 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 77 |
| 2006 | NL | Atl | 2B | Wilson Betemit | 24 | 10 | 9 | 69 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 22 | .773 | -1 | -1 | -15 |
| 2007 | AL | NYY | 2B | Wilson Betemit | 26 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | .857 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2007 | NL | LA | 2B | Wilson Betemit | 26 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .000 | -2 | -1 | -291 |
| 2004 | NL | Atl | 3B | Wilson Betemit | 22 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 1.000 | 2 | 1 | 47 |
| 2005 | NL | Atl | 3B | Wilson Betemit | 23 | 63 | 46 | 431 | 26 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 103 | 124 | .831 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| 2006 | NL | Atl | 3B | Wilson Betemit | 24 | 30 | 20 | 204 | 8 | 40 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 51 | .804 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 2006 | NL | LA | 3B | Wilson Betemit | 24 | 49 | 45 | 398 | 24 | 83 | 4 | 9 | 83 | 109 | .761 | -3 | -2 | -7 |
| 2007 | AL | NYY | 3B | Wilson Betemit | 26 | 14 | 5 | 56 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 19 | .789 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| 2007 | NL | LA | 3B | Wilson Betemit | 26 | 53 | 39 | 353 | 20 | 60 | 4 | 6 | 62 | 86 | .721 | -4 | -4 | -15 |
| 2004 | NL | Atl | SS | Wilson Betemit | 22 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 12 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 35 | .829 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| 2005 | NL | Atl | SS | Wilson Betemit | 23 | 25 | 10 | 136 | 24 | 40 | 1 | 10 | 36 | 48 | .750 | -4 | -3 | -36 |
| 2006 | NL | Atl | SS | Wilson Betemit | 24 | 18 | 10 | 92 | 20 | 33 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 40 | .675 | -6 | -5 | -75 |
| 2007 | AL | NYY | SS | Wilson Betemit | 26 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | .889 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| 2007 | NL | LA | SS | Wilson Betemit | 26 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Projection | 1B | 14 | 9 | 223 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 18 | .778 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| Projection | 2B | 4 | 4 | 92 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | .791 | -2 | -2 | -27 | ||||
| Projection | 3B | 43 | 32 | 896 | 17 | 59 | 4 | 6 | 62 | 79 | .779 | -1 | 0 | -1 | ||||
| Projection | SS | 15 | 7 | 239 | 15 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 30 | .750 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
I debated including the defensive numbers for any of the bench candidates since there are sample size issues, but I'll present them with the caveat that there is not enough data to make any definitive assessment of what they may tell us. I'd say Betemit is a decent glove at third and first and probably a bit stretched in the middle infield although he can handle it. Betemit's a lock to be on the roster, and for good reason. He could very well be the best backup infielder in baseball.
Jose Molina
After the Wil Nieves Experience™ got to be too much, the Yankees picked up Molina mid-season from the hated Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jeff Kennard. Molina's not a good hitter, but that's why he's a backup catcher. Here are his projections for 2008, prepare to be underwhelmed.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 267 | 254 | 28 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 57 | 1 | .240 | .277 | .370 | -3 | 3 |
| marcel | 326 | 299 | 30 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 64 | 2 | .247 | .285 | .371 | -2 | 4 |
| pecota | 170 | 155 | 14 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 1 | .240 | .278 | .346 | -3 | 1 |
| zips | 203 | 194 | 17 | 47 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 44 | 1 | .242 | .276 | .340 | -4 | 1 |
| cairo | 222 | 203 | 21 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 1 | .242 | .281 | .362 | -2 | 2 |
| average | 238 | 221 | 22 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 49 | 1 | .242 | .279 | .358 | -3 | 2 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 222 | 203 | 25 | 56 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 37 | 3 | .276 | .333 | .450 | 7 | 12 |
| 65% | 222 | 203 | 23 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 40 | 2 | .259 | .307 | .406 | 2 | 7 |
| Baseline | 222 | 203 | 21 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 1 | .242 | .281 | .362 | -2 | 2 |
| 35% | 222 | 203 | 18 | 46 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 47 | 1 | .224 | .254 | .318 | -7 | -3 |
| 20% | 222 | 203 | 16 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 50 | 0 | .207 | .228 | .274 | -12 | -7 |
Pray for Jorge Posada's continued good health, although to be fair Molina's defense might make him worthy of a roster spot.
| Year | Last | First | Tm | Lg | Inn | SB | CS | CS% | PBWPR | TER | FER | Tot R | R/140 |
| 2004 | Molina | Jose | LAA | AL | 524 | 23 | 19 | 45% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2005 | Molina | Jose | LAA | AL | 480 | 19 | 18 | 49% | -3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2006 | Molina | Jose | LAA | AL | 603 | 27 | 19 | 41% | -5 | 0 | -2 | -4 | -8 |
| 2007 | Molina | Jose | LAA | AL | 323 | 18 | 7 | 28% | 0 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -8 |
| 2007 | Molina | Jose | NYA | AL | 169 | 13 | 5 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Projection | Molina | Jose | NYA | AL | 428 | 20 | 14 | 40% | -2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -8 |
Molina projects to be below average defensively, mainly due to a poor projection on passed balls and wild pitches. His throwing and error rate are about average. Maybe he can recover some of that 2004 defensive magic.
Although Francisco Cervelli has had a couple of promising seasons in the minors, Molina's probably got his spot on the bench locked up this year.
Morgan Ensberg
Ensberg is coming off a very disappointing season after hitting 59 HRs and walking 186 times combined over 2005 and 2006. His performance was attributed at least partially to a shoulder injury. If that was indeed the case and he is healthy now, he has a lot of upside as not just a bench player, but as a potential starting first baseman. Here's how Ensberg projects for 2008 as compared to an average 1B.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 420 | 356 | 54 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 61 | 82 | 3 | .242 | .357 | .419 | -3 | 8 |
| marcel | 412 | 346 | 56 | 87 | 17 | 1 | 17 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 81 | 3 | .251 | .362 | .454 | 1 | 12 |
| pecota | 277 | 229 | 38 | 57 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 42 | 57 | 2 | .249 | .367 | .457 | 2 | 9 |
| zips | 475 | 395 | 60 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 20 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 76 | 105 | 4 | .243 | .371 | .446 | 1 | 14 |
| cairo | 431 | 363 | 56 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 62 | 77 | 3 | .255 | .366 | .459 | 2 | 14 |
| average | 403 | 338 | 53 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 60 | 81 | 3 | .248 | .365 | .447 | 0 | 12 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 431 | 363 | 63 | 102 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 65 | 3 | 1 | 70 | 68 | 5 | .282 | .411 | .538 | 17 | 29 |
| 65% | 431 | 363 | 59 | 97 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 62 | 3 | 2 | 66 | 73 | 4 | .268 | .388 | .499 | 10 | 22 |
| Baseline | 431 | 363 | 56 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 58 | 2 | 3 | 62 | 77 | 3 | .255 | .366 | .459 | 2 | 14 |
| 35% | 431 | 363 | 52 | 88 | 16 | 1 | 16 | 54 | 1 | 4 | 58 | 82 | 2 | .242 | .344 | .419 | -6 | 6 |
| 20% | 431 | 363 | 48 | 83 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 50 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 86 | 1 | .229 | .321 | .379 | -14 | -2 |
Again, we don't know how healthy he is, but the projections are pretty encouraging and there is some upside here.
Also of note are Ensberg's career splits. Versus lefties he has hit .284/.406/.530 in his career over 686 PA, compared to .258/.350/.456 versus righties. Even in his down 2007 he hit .257/.345/.486 versus lefties.
Ensberg's primarily played 3B in his career, but I think he should be reasonably competent at first base because of that infield experience. Here are his career defensive numbers at 3B.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RS/162 |
| 2002 | NL | Hou | 3B | Morgan Ensberg | 27 | 43 | 37 | 328 | 28 | 76 | 8 | 5 | 80 | 110 | .727 | -5 | -4 | -16 |
| 2003 | NL | Hou | 3B | Morgan Ensberg | 27 | 111 | 89 | 818 | 77 | 184 | 9 | 18 | 195 | 248 | .786 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 2004 | NL | Hou | 3B | Morgan Ensberg | 28 | 118 | 103 | 921 | 80 | 164 | 13 | 23 | 180 | 243 | .741 | -7 | -6 | -9 |
| 2005 | NL | Hou | 3B | Morgan Ensberg | 29 | 148 | 147 | 1286 | 100 | 296 | 15 | 31 | 324 | 403 | .804 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 2006 | NL | Hou | 3B | Morgan Ensberg | 30 | 117 | 106 | 975 | 80 | 230 | 12 | 25 | 247 | 301 | .821 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 2007 | NL | Hou | 3B | Morgan Ensberg | 32 | 68 | 52 | 492 | 36 | 107 | 11 | 12 | 118 | 161 | .733 | -6 | -5 | -15 |
| 2007 | NL | SD | 3B | Morgan Ensberg | 32 | 12 | 10 | 93 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 32 | .906 | 4 | 3 | 53 |
| 3B | 102 | 91 | 2474 | 67 | 183 | 11 | 20 | 198 | 252 | .786 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
I'd worry about how Ensberg may handle scooping throws, but other than that I think anyone that can play an average 3B should at the very least be average at 1B. Couple that with a bat that projects around average and with a tendency for lefty-mashing, and Ensberg seems like a good guy to have on the bench as well.
Shelley Duncan
The man, the myth, the legend. Duncan scuffled around the minors for most of his career until breaking through in 2007 and getting a shot at the majors as a 27 year old rookie. Duncan slammed 7 HRs in 74 MLB at bats and ended the season with a line of .257/.329/.554. Duncan's projections for 2008 aren't very good because of his lackluster performance in the minors before 2007.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 465 | 425 | 58 | 98 | 19 | 1 | 21 | 60 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 113 | 4 | .231 | .297 | .428 | -11 | 2 |
| marcel | 242 | 215 | 35 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 45 | 2 | .270 | .339 | .465 | 0 | 7 |
| pecota | 460 | 412 | 51 | 98 | 19 | 1 | 21 | 70 | 3 | 1 | 39 | 112 | 4 | .239 | .308 | .439 | -7 | 5 |
| zips | 446 | 405 | 45 | 98 | 18 | 1 | 24 | 74 | 1 | 2 | 38 | 103 | 3 | .242 | .312 | .469 | -4 | 9 |
| cairo | 369 | 334 | 44 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 77 | 2 | .250 | .316 | .477 | -2 | 9 |
| average | 396 | 358 | 48 | 88 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 59 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 88 | 3 | .246 | .314 | .456 | -4 | 7 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 369 | 334 | 51 | 93 | 20 | 2 | 24 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 69 | 4 | .278 | .360 | .560 | 12 | 23 |
| 65% | 369 | 334 | 47 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 22 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 73 | 3 | .264 | .338 | .518 | 5 | 16 |
| Baseline | 369 | 334 | 44 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 77 | 2 | .250 | .316 | .477 | -2 | 9 |
| 35% | 369 | 334 | 41 | 79 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 55 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 82 | 2 | .236 | .294 | .435 | -9 | 2 |
| 20% | 369 | 334 | 37 | 74 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 86 | 1 | .223 | .272 | .393 | -16 | -5 |
I think Duncan may be better than what those numbers show because I think he made some adjustments in his game that allowed him to play like he did in 2007. I can see him as a .250/.320/.480 type hitter with HR power, and that's a damn fine bench player.
Defensively, we don't have much data on Duncan, but the scouting reports see him as a below average defender at either first base or the OF corners.
Jason Lane
Lane's a long-shot to make the roster. He's a similar player to Shelley Duncan, but 3 years older and with a couple of bad seasons in his recent past (.201/.318/.392 in 2006 and .175/.254/.345 in 2007). Despite being a righty he doesn't have a huge platoon split (.768 OPS vs RPH, .779 vs LHP). His projections for 2008, as you may imagine, are a little ugly.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 407 | 363 | 48 | 87 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 46 | 2 | 2 | 40 | 74 | 4 | .240 | .322 | .410 | -8 | 3 |
| marcel | 332 | 294 | 39 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 44 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 63 | 3 | .231 | .304 | .418 | -7 | 2 |
| pecota | 321 | 285 | 35 | 66 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 61 | 3 | .232 | .302 | .404 | -8 | 1 |
| zips | 434 | 391 | 46 | 90 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 56 | 2 | 2 | 38 | 88 | 5 | .230 | .306 | .402 | -11 | 1 |
| cairo | 342 | 302 | 39 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 62 | 3 | .245 | .319 | .434 | -4 | 5 |
| average | 367 | 327 | 41 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 69 | 4 | .236 | .311 | .413 | -8 | 2 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 342 | 302 | 45 | 83 | 20 | 2 | 17 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 38 | 54 | 5 | .274 | .365 | .518 | 9 | 18 |
| 65% | 342 | 302 | 42 | 78 | 18 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 58 | 4 | .259 | .342 | .476 | 2 | 12 |
| Baseline | 342 | 302 | 39 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 62 | 3 | .245 | .319 | .434 | -4 | 5 |
| 35% | 342 | 302 | 36 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 66 | 2 | .231 | .295 | .392 | -11 | -2 |
| 20% | 342 | 302 | 33 | 65 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 70 | 1 | .217 | .272 | .350 | -18 | -9 |
Defensively, Lane does have the ability to play CF which Duncan does not. However, he doesn't grade well defensively if you believe zone rating.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RS/162 |
| 2004 | NL | Hou | 1B | Jason Lane | 27 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| 2006 | NL | Hou | 1B | Jason Lane | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | NL | Hou | CF | Jason Lane | 26 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 53 |
| 2003 | NL | Hou | CF | Jason Lane | 26 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | .500 | -1 | -1 | -78 |
| 2004 | NL | Hou | CF | Jason Lane | 27 | 17 | 3 | 49 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | .700 | -2 | -1 | -39 |
| 2005 | NL | Hou | CF | Jason Lane | 28 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 13 | .846 | 0 | 0 | -13 |
| 2006 | NL | Hou | CF | Jason Lane | 29 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | .833 | 0 | 0 | -15 |
| 2007 | NL | Hou | CF | Jason Lane | 31 | 36 | 27 | 261 | 80 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 77 | 88 | .875 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | NL | SD | CF | Jason Lane | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 137 |
| 2002 | NL | Hou | LF | Jason Lane | 26 | 11 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2003 | NL | Hou | LF | Jason Lane | 26 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 33 |
| 2004 | NL | Hou | LF | Jason Lane | 27 | 35 | 6 | 102 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 24 | .917 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2005 | NL | Hou | LF | Jason Lane | 28 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | .429 | -3 | -3 | -153 |
| 2006 | NL | Hou | LF | Jason Lane | 29 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 43 |
| 2007 | NL | Hou | LF | Jason Lane | 31 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | NL | Hou | RF | Jason Lane | 26 | 27 | 16 | 151 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 49 | .796 | -4 | -4 | -35 |
| 2003 | NL | Hou | RF | Jason Lane | 26 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
| 2004 | NL | Hou | RF | Jason Lane | 27 | 24 | 13 | 141 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 31 | .871 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2005 | NL | Hou | RF | Jason Lane | 28 | 137 | 126 | 1116 | 225 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 203 | 248 | .819 | -13 | -11 | -14 |
| 2006 | NL | Hou | RF | Jason Lane | 29 | 89 | 73 | 679 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 183 | .814 | -11 | -9 | -19 |
| 2007 | NL | Hou | RF | Jason Lane | 31 | 18 | 15 | 128 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 47 | .851 | -1 | -1 | -13 |
| 2007 | NL | SD | RF | Jason Lane | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Projection | AL | NYY | 1B | 32 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Projection | AL | NYY | CF | 32 | 16 | 9 | 285 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 31 | .859 | -4 | -3 | -17 | |
| Projection | AL | NYY | LF | 32 | 9 | 2 | 86 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | .843 | -4 | -4 | -62 | |
| Projection | AL | NYY | RF | 32 | 57 | 48 | 1314 | 98 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 91 | 111 | .823 | -6 | -5 | -5 |
I'd have a tough time building a case for Lane over Ensberg or Duncan, unless the Yankees need an OF more than they need a backup corner IF.
Nick Green
The triumphant return of a Yankee legend. Green's the prototypical utility player. He projects to be bad on offense.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 388 | 358 | 43 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 101 | 5 | .237 | .296 | .394 | -9 | 1 |
| marcel | 216 | 189 | 27 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 49 | 4 | .238 | .315 | .360 | -5 | 0 |
| pecota | 457 | 410 | 47 | 97 | 21 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 129 | 6 | .237 | .300 | .385 | -10 | 1 |
| zips | 370 | 341 | 36 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 90 | 4 | .258 | .316 | .416 | -4 | 6 |
| cairo | 265 | 237 | 30 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 57 | 4 | .266 | .321 | .418 | -2 | 5 |
| average | 339 | 306 | 37 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 83 | 5 | .247 | .310 | .395 | -6 | 3 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 265 | 237 | 35 | 71 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 49 | 6 | .299 | .374 | .511 | 10 | 16 |
| 65% | 265 | 237 | 33 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 53 | 5 | .283 | .348 | .464 | 4 | 10 |
| Baseline | 265 | 237 | 30 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 57 | 4 | .266 | .321 | .418 | -2 | 5 |
| 35% | 265 | 237 | 27 | 59 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 61 | 3 | .249 | .294 | .371 | -8 | -1 |
| 20% | 265 | 237 | 24 | 55 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 65 | 2 | .232 | .267 | .325 | -14 | -7 |
He can play pretty much any infield position, although not necessarily all that well.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RS/162 |
| 2006 | AL | NYY | 1B | Nick Green | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 194 |
| 2004 | NL | Atl | 2B | Nick Green | 25 | 75 | 61 | 572 | 137 | 203 | 8 | 44 | 187 | 222 | .842 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 2005 | AL | TB | 2B | Nick Green | 26 | 91 | 83 | 731 | 141 | 195 | 4 | 44 | 186 | 240 | .775 | -11 | -8 | -16 |
| 2006 | AL | TB | 2B | Nick Green | 27 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | .778 | 0 | 0 | -14 |
| 2006 | AL | NYY | 2B | Nick Green | 27 | 19 | 11 | 103 | 37 | 29 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 35 | .743 | -3 | -2 | -30 |
| 2007 | AL | Sea | 2B | Nick Green | 29 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2004 | NL | Atl | 3B | Nick Green | 25 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2005 | AL | TB | 3B | Nick Green | 26 | 13 | 11 | 104 | 4 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 30 | .767 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| 2006 | AL | NYY | 3B | Nick Green | 27 | 17 | 8 | 80 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 27 | .704 | -2 | -1 | -25 |
| 2006 | AL | TB | SS | Nick Green | 27 | 10 | 7 | 67 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 28 | .786 | -1 | -1 | -17 |
| 2006 | AL | NYY | SS | Nick Green | 27 | 10 | 3 | 35 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | .733 | -1 | -1 | -42 |
| 2007 | AL | Sea | SS | Nick Green | 29 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 65 |
| Projection | AL | NYY | 1B | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Projection | AL | NYY | 2B | 38 | 32 | 853 | 63 | 85 | 2 | 19 | 79 | 99 | .799 | -2 | -2 | -3 | ||
| Projection | AL | NYY | 3B | 13 | 7 | 213 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 22 | .739 | -1 | 0 | -3 | ||
| Projection | AL | NYY | SS | 6 | 3 | 86 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | .795 | 0 | 0 | -8 |
Green is probably the best choice if the Yankees decide they want a second backup middle infielder, although if they carry 12 pitchers that may make it tough to squeeze him on.
Chris Woodward
Take Nick Green and make him worse and make him a few years older and you have Chris Woodward.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 242 | 222 | 23 | 52 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 51 | 1 | .234 | .298 | .333 | -9 | -3 |
| marcel | 301 | 268 | 32 | 64 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 61 | 2 | .239 | .299 | .351 | -10 | -2 |
| pecota | 84 | 75 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 1 | .240 | .310 | .333 | -3 | 0 |
| zips | 179 | 165 | 18 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 40 | 1 | .224 | .285 | .321 | -8 | -3 |
| cairo | 238 | 212 | 23 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 48 | 1 | .231 | .286 | .330 | -10 | -4 |
| average | 209 | 188 | 21 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 43 | 1 | .234 | .295 | .334 | -8 | -2 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 238 | 212 | 28 | 56 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 41 | 2 | .264 | .337 | .412 | 0 | 6 |
| 65% | 238 | 212 | 25 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 45 | 2 | .248 | .311 | .371 | -5 | 1 |
| Baseline | 238 | 212 | 23 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 48 | 1 | .231 | .286 | .330 | -10 | -4 |
| 35% | 238 | 212 | 21 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 51 | 1 | .215 | .260 | .289 | -14 | -8 |
| 20% | 238 | 212 | 18 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 55 | 0 | .198 | .234 | .248 | -19 | -13 |
Woodward has seen some spot duty in the OF which could theoretically give him an edge on Green.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PMAA | RSAA | RS/162 |
| 2002 | AL | Tor | 1B | Chris Woodward | 26 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
| 2005 | NL | NYM | 1B | Chris Woodward | 29 | 34 | 21 | 199 | 206 | 10 | 2 | 16 | 30 | 33 | .909 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 2006 | NL | NYM | 1B | Chris Woodward | 30 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | NL | Atl | 1B | Chris Woodward | 31 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 28 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | .875 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2002 | AL | Tor | 2B | Chris Woodward | 26 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | .846 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2005 | NL | NYM | 2B | Chris Woodward | 29 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | .700 | -1 | -1 | -41 |
| 2006 | NL | NYM | 2B | Chris Woodward | 30 | 39 | 33 | 292 | 72 | 93 | 4 | 20 | 76 | 91 | .835 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 2007 | NL | Atl | 2B | Chris Woodward | 31 | 11 | 6 | 54 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 23 | .652 | -4 | -3 | -70 |
| 2002 | AL | Tor | 3B | Chris Woodward | 26 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 121 |
| 2005 | NL | NYM | 3B | Chris Woodward | 29 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | .923 | 2 | 1 | 79 |
| 2006 | NL | NYM | 3B | Chris Woodward | 30 | 11 | 6 | 66 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 1.000 | 3 | 3 | 60 |
| 2007 | NL | Atl | 3B | Chris Woodward | 31 | 24 | 6 | 100 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 16 | .813 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 2002 | AL | Tor | SS | Chris Woodward | 26 | 79 | 77 | 678 | 134 | 231 | 13 | 64 | 208 | 240 | .867 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 2003 | AL | Tor | SS | Chris Woodward | 27 | 103 | 98 | 871 | 161 | 300 | 17 | 69 | 279 | 335 | .833 | -3 | -3 | -4 |
| 2004 | AL | Tor | SS | Chris Woodward | 28 | 64 | 60 | 515 | 87 | 171 | 5 | 42 | 163 | 195 | .836 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| 2005 | NL | NYM | SS | Chris Woodward | 29 | 7 | 3 | 33 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | .857 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2006 | NL | NYM | SS | Chris Woodward | 30 | 13 | 11 | 97 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 35 | .829 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| 2007 | NL | Atl | SS | Chris Woodward | 31 | 13 | 5 | 67 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | .850 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Projection | AL | NYY | 1B | 11 | 7 | 192 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 11 | .901 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Projection | AL | NYY | 2B | 18 | 14 | 362 | 29 | 38 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 40 | .788 | -1 | -1 | -4 | ||
| Projection | AL | NYY | 3B | 14 | 5 | 196 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 15 | .905 | 2 | 2 | 12 | ||
| Projection | AL | NYY | SS | 31 | 26 | 712 | 40 | 79 | 4 | 20 | 73 | 87 | .839 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Woodward brings a slightly better glove than Green it would appear, but a worse bat. He's probably not a good bet to make the team although I have a hunch he could sneak his way on with a hot spring.
Brett Gardner
Gardner's a long shot to start the season in the Bronx. He's shown pretty good OBP skills in the minors and he's supposed to be top of the scouting scale fast, but he has no power at all which is not a good sign for his major league future.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| chone | 469 | 427 | 55 | 108 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 35 | 9 | 40 | 91 | 2 | .253 | .320 | .328 | -13 | -1 |
| marcel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 |
| pecota | 483 | 428 | 58 | 102 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 25 | 7 | 44 | 100 | 3 | .238 | .308 | .318 | -18 | -5 |
| zips | 468 | 417 | 73 | 112 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 28 | 9 | 49 | 87 | 2 | .269 | .348 | .331 | -10 | 2 |
| cairo | 325 | 292 | 46 | 74 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 61 | 2 | .253 | .326 | .342 | -9 | -1 |
| average | 349 | 313 | 43 | 79 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 33 | 68 | 2 | .253 | .326 | .330 | -10 | -1 |
| CAIRO % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAA | BRAR |
| 80% | 325 | 292 | 53 | 83 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 35 | 53 | 3 | .283 | .374 | .413 | 3 | 11 |
| 65% | 325 | 292 | 50 | 78 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 11 | 2 | 33 | 57 | 3 | .268 | .350 | .378 | -3 | 5 |
| Baseline | 325 | 292 | 46 | 74 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 61 | 2 | .253 | .326 | .342 | -9 | -1 |
| 35% | 325 | 292 | 43 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 65 | 1 | .239 | .302 | .307 | -16 | -7 |
| 20% | 325 | 292 | 39 | 65 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 69 | 1 | .224 | .278 | .272 | -22 | -13 |
Gardner's defense is apparently not as good as it should be with his speed because of some questionable reads, but I think he's still likely to be a plus defender.
Conclusion
We can probably assume the Yankees start the season with this lineup:
LF - Damon
SS - Jeter
RF - Abreu
3B - Rodriguez
1B - Giambi
C - Posada
DH - Matsui
2B - Cano
CF - Cabrera
We can probably also safely assume that they'll start the season with a 12 man pitching staff, which leaves four roster spots for the bench. Betemit and Molina are locks. I think Ensberg is pretty close to a lock as well, which leaves one spot for Jason Lane or Shelley Duncan or Nick Green or Chris Woodward. Duncan gives them the better bat, although Green and Woodward give them more infield flexibility. Lane is probably the best OF backup defensively since he can play CF, but he seems like the odd man out. If it was me I'd go with Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. Any situation that would require Green or Duncan could be handled without them. If you lose Alex Rodriguez, Ensberg or Betemit can play third. If you lose one of Jeter or Cano, Betemit can cover them. If you lose both Jeter and Cano, Betemit slides to second, Rodriguez to short, and Ensberg to third. If it's a long-term issue the Yankees would have Alberto Gonzalez available to backup around the IF.
The Yankees have similar OF flexibility with Damon as the backup CF, Matsui as the backup corner OF and emergency CF, and Duncan as a fifth OF who can cover the corners in a pinch.
I suppose a pinch runner for Giambi or Posada would be nice, but is that worth a roster spot? If it is I could see Gardner or Justin Christian sneaking on.
I'll take a look at what the Yankee position players add up to as far as runs and wins in my next entry and then it's on to the pitching.
So, like I said, my bench would be Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. There's a possibility Hideki Matsui may start the year on the DL which would open up another spot, but let's assume that's not the case for now. If you could take four players for the Yankee bench, who would they be?
Page 1 of 1 pages: