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Monday, July 9, 2007

Yankee Pitching at the All Star Break

I'm still mad about Saturday's game, but we must soldier on I guess. Anyway, the All Star Break is a good time to catch up on the team's performances to this point. I think I've been neglecting pitching this season because of how much "fun" it's been harping on the offense and defense, so today I'm going to look at the pitching staff so far. First, here are the Yankees pitchers sorted by most valuable to least valuable by runs saved above average. Read after the chart for explanations of all the columns.

Last	RSAA	G	IP	Hit	HR	BB	K	ERA	RA	FIP	ERC	ERA+
Wang	18	15	104.3	98	6	27	48	3.36	3.36	3.98	3.53	128
Bruney	8	39	35	28	2	25	27	2.57	2.57	4.69	3.70	168
Myers	7	41	31	27	3	12	13	2.61	2.61	5.04	3.57	165
Clemens	6	7	39.7	34	4	10	29	3.63	3.63	3.87	3.00	119
Rivera	3	32	34	33	3	5	32	3.71	3.71	3.15	3.09	116
Villone	3	14	19.3	14	1	6	9	3.26	3.26	3.78	2.28	132
Pettitte	2	20	112.3	127	8	34	62	4.25	4.73	4.00	4.40	102
Hughes	2	2	10.7	7	0	4	11	3.37	3.37	2.33	1.80	128
Britton	2	3	5	1	1	1	2	1.80	1.80	5.67	0.91	240
Proctor	1	45	47.7	40	4	24	34	3.59	4.34	4.38	3.52	120
Mussina	0	14	78	83	10	17	49	4.62	4.85	4.37	4.37	93
Ramirez	0	2	2.3	2	0	1	4	3.86	3.86	2.41	5.32	112
Rasner	-1	6	24.7	29	4	8	11	4.01	5.11	5.70	5.12	108
Pavano	-1	2	11.3	12	1	2	4	4.76	5.56	4.24	3.86	91
Henn	-1	17	19.3	16	2	13	13	4.66	5.12	5.28	3.62	93
Farnsworth	-1	37	34.3	38	3	16	23	4.46	4.98	4.46	4.20	97
Bean	-2	3	3	5	0	5	2	12.00	12.00	6.93	8.16	36
Wright	-3	2	8	10	5	6	6	7.88	7.88	12.14	9.85	55
Vizcaino	-3	42	43	37	3	31	29	5.02	5.23	4.29	4.21	86
Desalvo	-3	6	23	27	2	16	6	5.87	6.26	6.35	6.30	74
Clippard	-4	6	27	29	6	17	18	6.33	6.33	6.60	5.81	68
Karstens	-5	2	4.3	11	1	2	1	14.54	14.54	7.19	10.79	30
Igawa	-13	9	46.7	52	11	23	33	7.14	7.33	6.59	5.84	60
Total	15	366.0	763.9	760	80	305	466	4.36	4.62	4.66	4.32	98

RSAA is runs saved above average, which I calculate by subracting the pitcher's runs allowed average from the league average runs allowed average, dividing by nine and then multiplying times innings pitched. Starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers, as relievers collectively have an RA of about .5 runs less than starters.

RA is just the equivalent of ERA, but includes unearned runs.

FIP is Tango Tiger's Fielding Independent Pitching, which is calculated using the formula 13 times HR plus 3 times BB + HBP - 2 times K divided by IP. 3.2 is added to that to give a # that should closely match ERA. The idea here is to regress a pitcher's batting average on balls in play to average by focusing on his peripherals. If you see a big difference between a pitcher's FIP and his ERA, you should expect them to move closer to each other if he continues to pitch the way he has to this point.

ERC is Component ERA. Kind of like FIP, it looks a player's components to see if their results match their actual performance. The one difference is it uses a pitcher's actual hit rate, so it does not penalize pitchers who do happen to have the ability to suppress hits on balls in play.

Last	LD%	GB%	FB%	BABIP	HR+	BB+	K+	BF	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Wang	18.0%	58.7%	23.2%	.277	181	133	69	418	383	.256	.311	.366
Bruney	17.5%	29.9%	52.9%	.268	200	53	105	154	122	.230	.364	.328
Myers	15.7%	61.8%	22.1%	.238	113	93	60	131	114	.237	.313	.368
Clemens	20.7%	50.0%	29.2%	.261	103	135	110	158	147	.231	.278	.347
Rivera	16.3%	53.1%	30.6%	.309	120	238	138	139	130	.254	.288	.346
Villone	16.4%	36.1%	47.7%	.217	203	111	69	78	69	.203	.282	.261
Pettitte	18.4%	49.3%	32.3%	.321	155	120	78	476	434	.293	.340	.417
Hughes	15.4%	57.7%	26.9%	.269	inf	88	161	41	37	.189	.268	.216
Britton	14.3%	28.6%	57.1%	.000	44	146	71	17	16	.063	.118	.250
Proctor	16.0%	28.5%	56.0%	.252	134	74	99	207	174	.230	.319	.356
Mussina	20.6%	39.9%	39.5%	.295	85	164	90	326	298	.279	.316	.446
Ramirez	0.0%	66.7%	25.0%	.500	inf	86	240	10	7	.286	.400	.429
Rasner	20.0%	40.0%	40.0%	.291	72	119	59	111	100	.290	.351	.470
Pavano	17.9%	46.2%	34.9%	.282	119	197	52	46	44	.273	.304	.409
Henn	13.6%	42.4%	44.1%	.237	114	58	89	88	73	.219	.341	.343
Farnsworth	19.0%	33.6%	48.0%	.310	135	83	88	156	138	.275	.353	.384
Bean	8.3%	58.3%	33.3%	.417	inf	33	63	19	14	.357	.526	.500
Wright	14.3%	25.0%	58.7%	.217	21	57	90	40	34	.294	.400	.794
Vizcaino	20.8%	35.4%	43.4%	.259	169	54	89	195	159	.233	.354	.384
Desalvo	17.6%	37.6%	44.6%	.294	145	60	32	112	91	.297	.411	.495
Clippard	6.7%	39.3%	54.3%	.277	54	62	87	124	107	.271	.371	.505
Karstens	35.0%	25.0%	41.7%	.454	68	111	23	26	23	.478	.500	.696
Igawa	18.7%	31.0%	50.5%	.283	51	80	92	215	189	.275	.363	.519
Total	17.9%	43.6%	38.5%	.288	127	110	85	3287	2903	.269	.334	.417

LD%, GB%, and FB% are the percentage of balls in play that a pitcher allows that end up as line drives, ground balls, or fly balls, respectively.

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. This looks at all balls in a play that a pitcher gives up and what ratio they become hits. The formula used is (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO + SF). The AL average this season is .300 on the nose. In theory, most pitchers should be close to that number, so most anyone who's above or below it has a probability of regressing towards it.

HR+, BB+, and K+ are my own numbers. These are similar to Baseball Reference's ERA+, in that they calculate a pitcher's HR allowed rate, walk allowed rate, and strikeout rate per batters faced as a ratio compared to league average. < 100 is below average, >100 is above average for all three. So if you look at Chien-Ming Wang, you see he prevents HRs at a rate 81% better than the average pitcher, walks 33% fewer, and strikes out 31% fewer. You have to love Chase Wright's 21 HR+.

BF is batters faced. AB is at bats by opposing hitters, and AVG, OBP, and SLG are what opposing hitters are hitting against the pitcher in question.

So what do all these numbers really mean?

First of all, Chien-Ming Wang rocks. He's been a win better than any Yankee pitcher despite missing a month. Yeah, he doesn't strike out a lot of people, but last year his K+ was 51, so he's improved significantly in that area this year. He's a master at keeping the ball in the park, and he pitches with good control. That has worked for Wang for 439 innings at the major league level now.

Brian Bruney's had a decent year as far as preventing runs, but his control is awful and he appears to have fallen out of favor in the bullpen pecking order. Bruney was released by Arizona for a reason, but he's still young enough to put it together. I wouldn't trust him over most of the rest of the pen right now though.

Mike Myers' has had what looks like a good year superficially, but he has failed at his job, which is to get out lefty hitters. Lefties are hitting .327/.410/.462, following up a line of .257/.297/.443 last year. Expect more of the same going forward. From what I can see, he's lost what little velocity he had and his slider is not as tough to hit as it used to be.

It's both a credit to Roger Clemens and an indictment of the rest of the team that he's been their fourth most valuable pitcher despite only starting six games. He's not throwing as hard as he used to, but he's succeeding. His K rate is still better than league average, and he's combining that with above average control and a good HR rate. He can probably pitch until he's 50.

Mariano Rivera's ERA is way out of line from what we are used to seeing, but he's been good recently. Over his last 24 games, he's pitched 27.1 innings and fanned 24 with a more Mo-like 1.65 ERA. He still doesn't look like MO to me, but he should be good going forward. His FIP and his component ERA both point to that as well. Interestingly, Rivera's already given up as many earned runs this year as he gave up in five full seasons in the past.

Everyone wants to dump Ron Villone, but he's been good at his role, pitching good baseball in low leverage spots. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him. I'd probably lose Myers before Villone.

Andy Pettitte has been brutal his last few starts, but you could argue that it should have been seen coming. He had a 2.51 ERA after his first 11 starts, but 23 BB and just 38 strikeouts, and having allowed 70 hits in 71 innings. Since then, he's got a putrid 7.30 ERA. For the first half overall, he's been a hair above average, and he's eaten innings for the team and helped rest the pen for the majority of his starts. He's right around where he was projected to be overall, even though he took a circuitous rout to get there. Let's hope he's just in a rut and not hurting.

Phil Hughes pitched twice. We hope to see him back by the end of the month. He makes his first rehab start today I think.

Chris Britton has done nothing in the majors or Scranton to warrant still being in Scranton.

Scott Proctor's been up and down. It looks like he's made an adjustment recently, using his slow curve to freeze hitters looking for his fastball, and so far it's working. As a durable reliever who can give the team average or better innings, he's a useful piece.

Mike Mussina started out crappy. He still doesn't look great stuff wise, but he's been getting results. Over his last six starts he's got a 2.87 ERA, over his last eight it's 3.49. Take out his first start of the year and he's got an ERA of 4.14. I was hoping for a repeat of 2006, but it looks more that we will see the 2004-2005 version of Moose, who is useful if not great. Moose's FIP and ERC seem to agree that he'll be ok going forward, but not great.

Edwar Ramirez is the last of the Yankee pitchers who has not been below average. He should get a few chances to show if he can handle the majors yet. He's a great story so I'll be pulling for him.

I won't go through everyone else on the list, but I'll touch on a few of 'em.

Pavano. Heh.

I have nothing good to say about Kyle Farnsworth. I'd love to see the Yankees dump him somewhere, for anything they could get.

Luis Vizcaino has been the best part of the Randy Johnson trade, which tells you how well that whole thing worked out. In his defense, he's pitched better of late although he's still got mediocre peripherals. Did you know Vizcaino already has 11 IBB this year? That really skews his numbers.

Kei Igawa. I expected a 5.00 ERA with hopes of a 4.00, and instead I've gotten a 7.14 ERA with hopes that he doesn't pitch any more. Igawa's K rate is passable, but his control has been poor, and his HR rate is off the charts bad. The league is hitting .275/.363/.519 against him. Eeesh.

Overall, the Yankee pitching staff has actually been a touch above average (15 RSAA overall). That's because even with a slightly below average ERA, they have allowed fewer unearned runs than average so fewer overall. Their team RA is 4.66 compared to the AL average of 4.80. That's the fairly good news. The bad news is that as a team they have the worst K rate in the league, with a K+ of 85.

I'll look at either the offense or defense tomorrow.

Update: A couple of links some of you may have interest in. Over at the Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe looks at a simulation of the 28 worst teams of all time. I helped Chris run these. No, the 2007 Yankees are not on the list, yet.

Also, Top Prospect Alert has posted their Top 100 prospects at midseason. Hughes is still considered a prospect, and they have him as #2 behind Justin Upton. Six Yankees make the grade, although one name is a bit surprising.