Friday, January 22, 2010
What Happened to Wang?
It’s looking more and more likely that Chien-Ming Wang’s time with the Yankees is over, with the St. Louis Cardinals currently rumored as the most likely landing place for the potentially former Yankee. Over at the Lohud Yankee blog last week, a guest post by Greg Mathews looked at Wang and laid out a theory that batters started to lay off Wang’s low sinker and that it was indicative of a trend that may mean his effectiveness will suffer unless he makes an adjustment. Trying to see if letting Wang go is a mistake and being on Pitch F/X kick lately I figured I’d look at the data to see if there was any truth to this theory.
Since Pitch F/X has only been around since 2007 and was not completely rolled out until 2008, we don’t have data from Wang’s best season of 2006, and 2007 data is incomplete, which kind of limits how much we can infer from the data we do have given his missed time in 2008 and his very abbreviated 2009, so keep that in mind when looking at the numbers that follow.
Wang's sinker causes classification issues in Pitch F/X, so I'm looking at any pitch classified as either a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball or sinker for the years 2007-2009. I'm only looking at pitches I'd classify as low, which means they crossed the plate somewhere below the lower third of the strike zone as identified for the specific batter.And here are the numbers.
| Year | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| 2007 | 180 | 96.6 | 82.9 | 92.6 | 55.0% | 3.3% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 24.4 | 30.7 | 6.0 |
| 2008 | 347 | 97.2 | 84.0 | 90.9 | 48.4% | 7.2% | 15.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 0.3% | 23.8 | 37.4 | 6.9 |
| 2009 | 191 | 95.4 | 87.9 | 91.7 | 51.3% | 11.0% | 14.1% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 23.8 | 33.3 | 6.2 |
#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
break_y: the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs(definition taken from this site
break_angle: the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively;
break_length: the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory.
The incompleteness of the data limits whatever conclusions we may want to draw from this, but it doesn't really look like hitters were laying off Wang's low fastballs with any greater frequency. If anything, they were swinging at more of them if you look at the skS%. The big thing I see is they just hit fewer of them into outs, which could just be a BABIP issue or could be indicative of Wang's pitches being more hittable, although the velocity and break data is generally similar across all three years.
I'm kind of bummed that Wang's likely gone, but at the same time I don't think I'd expect him to pitch any better than any of the current members of the Yankee rotation in 2010, including either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes. I'd guess if the Yankees disagreed with me, he wouldn't be on his way to becoming a former Yankee. Either way, I wish him well, as long as he doesn't wind up on Boston or Tampa Bay. Or Anaheim. Or Seattle maybe.
Monday, December 21, 2009
NY Post: Yankees GM Cashman eyes starter by new year
With his everyday lineup for 2010 set, Cashman has turned attention to the rotation, and will almost certainly add a starter by New Year’s, according to a major league source.
Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano, but with the Cubs’ asking price high for the 28-year-old right-hander—who is coming off an injury-plagued 2009—it’s more probable the Yankees will go the free-agent route.
That means selecting from a pool that includes Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro and Ben Sheets, any of whom would slot behind CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte in the Yankees’ rotation.
That’s a shallow pool.
Update (SG): Projections after the jump.
Here are the CAIRO projections for the three listed pitchers if we make them Yankees.Jason Marquis
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 15 | 9 | 216 | 227 | 95 | 86 | 16 | 69 | 121 | 3.96 | 3.61 | 4.11 | 47.7 | 4.8 |
| 65% | 13 | 10 | 206 | 225 | 100 | 91 | 18 | 71 | 110 | 4.37 | 4.00 | 4.38 | 36.1 | 3.6 |
| Baseline | 11 | 10 | 196 | 222 | 105 | 96 | 19 | 72 | 100 | 4.82 | 4.42 | 4.64 | 24.5 | 2.4 |
| 35% | 10 | 10 | 176 | 206 | 99 | 91 | 19 | 68 | 85 | 5.06 | 4.65 | 4.91 | 17.4 | 1.7 |
| 20% | 8 | 9 | 157 | 189 | 92 | 85 | 19 | 64 | 72 | 5.29 | 4.87 | 5.18 | 11.4 | 1.1 |
| 2009 | 15 | 13 | 216 | 242 | 95 | 89 | 15 | 76 | 110 | 3.97 | 3.71 | 4.23 | 47.4 | 4.7 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
Joel Pineiro
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 12 | 7 | 174 | 180 | 74 | 67 | 14 | 26 | 95 | 3.85 | 3.47 | 3.64 | 40.6 | 4.1 |
| 65% | 11 | 8 | 166 | 179 | 79 | 71 | 15 | 28 | 86 | 4.28 | 3.87 | 3.93 | 30.8 | 3.1 |
| Baseline | 9 | 8 | 158 | 177 | 83 | 76 | 17 | 29 | 78 | 4.75 | 4.31 | 4.21 | 21.0 | 2.1 |
| 35% | 8 | 8 | 142 | 166 | 79 | 72 | 17 | 29 | 66 | 5.01 | 4.56 | 4.49 | 14.8 | 1.5 |
| 20% | 7 | 7 | 126 | 152 | 74 | 68 | 17 | 28 | 55 | 5.27 | 4.81 | 4.77 | 9.5 | 0.9 |
| 2009 | 15 | 12 | 214 | 222 | 101 | 89 | 13 | 26 | 101 | 4.24 | 3.75 | 3.45 | 40.5 | 4.1 |
Ben Sheets
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 13 | 5 | 166 | 149 | 59 | 54 | 14 | 32 | 136 | 3.18 | 2.95 | 3.28 | 51.1 | 5.1 |
| 65% | 12 | 6 | 159 | 148 | 63 | 58 | 15 | 34 | 124 | 3.56 | 3.31 | 3.59 | 42.0 | 4.2 |
| Baseline | 10 | 6 | 151 | 147 | 67 | 62 | 17 | 35 | 113 | 3.98 | 3.71 | 3.90 | 33.0 | 3.3 |
| 35% | 9 | 6 | 136 | 138 | 64 | 60 | 17 | 34 | 97 | 4.23 | 3.95 | 4.21 | 26.0 | 2.6 |
| 20% | 8 | 6 | 121 | 128 | 60 | 56 | 17 | 33 | 82 | 4.47 | 4.18 | 4.52 | 19.8 | 2.0 |
For the hell of it, here's how Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes project as starters.
Joba Chamberlain
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 15 | 8 | 204 | 188 | 87 | 77 | 17 | 79 | 203 | 3.85 | 3.40 | 3.59 | 47.6 | 4.8 |
| 65% | 13 | 9 | 194 | 187 | 92 | 81 | 19 | 80 | 187 | 4.26 | 3.77 | 3.90 | 36.5 | 3.7 |
| Baseline | 11 | 9 | 185 | 184 | 97 | 86 | 20 | 80 | 172 | 4.71 | 4.19 | 4.21 | 25.5 | 2.5 |
| 35% | 10 | 9 | 167 | 172 | 92 | 82 | 20 | 76 | 149 | 4.95 | 4.41 | 4.52 | 18.5 | 1.9 |
| 20% | 8 | 8 | 148 | 158 | 85 | 76 | 20 | 71 | 127 | 5.19 | 4.64 | 4.83 | 12.5 | 1.3 |
| 2009 | 9 | 6 | 157 | 162 | 93 | 82 | 18 | 74 | 138 | 5.31 | 4.69 | 4.48 | 11.2 | 1.1 |
Phil Hughes
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 11 | 6 | 154 | 138 | 67 | 63 | 12 | 51 | 140 | 3.94 | 3.68 | 3.48 | 34.4 | 3.4 |
| 65% | 10 | 7 | 147 | 137 | 72 | 67 | 13 | 53 | 128 | 4.39 | 4.11 | 3.82 | 25.4 | 2.5 |
| Baseline | 8 | 7 | 140 | 137 | 76 | 71 | 15 | 54 | 116 | 4.89 | 4.59 | 4.16 | 16.4 | 1.6 |
| 35% | 7 | 7 | 126 | 128 | 72 | 68 | 15 | 52 | 100 | 5.17 | 4.86 | 4.50 | 10.8 | 1.1 |
| 20% | 6 | 6 | 112 | 119 | 68 | 64 | 15 | 49 | 85 | 5.46 | 5.13 | 4.84 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
| 2009 | 8 | 3 | 86 | 66 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 27 | 100 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 2.96 | 26.2 | 2.6 |
If you could sign Marquis or Pineiro for one year and around $8 million, they wouldn't be awful fourth starters, but neither projects as better than Joba next year and you probably can't get either for one year. While I did project Sheets, I'd caution those projections with massive error bars, because he did not throw a single pitch last year and he had a surgery which may have taken something away from him.
Neither Joba or Hughes projects as a dominant starter, but their projections/performance in 2010 should not just be looked at in terms of their actual value, but also as part of the development curve towards hopefully establishing themselves as starters. While you shouldn't prioritize a single player's development over the team's overall goals, you probably shouldn't impede that potential development with a minimal at best upgrade.
So I'd say yes on Sheets if he'll sign for a moderate base with incentives, no on Marquis or Pineiro at any price. I'd also see about bringing Wang back.
On an unrelated note, if you wanted to read more about Chris Jaffe's book on evaluating managers, Was Watching has an excerpt up on Casey Stengel.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
NJ.com: NY Yankees cut ties with Chien-Ming Wang
NEW YORK—The Yankees severed ties with pitcher Chien-Ming Wang on Saturday, most likely ending the right-hander’s once promising career in the Bronx.
“There’s no doubt that we had to make a tough decision,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said in a statement. “We are still hopeful that our relationship can continue, but those decisions are yet to be made.”
There’s still a chance Wang could end up back in pinstripes, but I really doubt it at this point. I blame the archaic National League rules.
NY Times: Yanks Unlikely to Offer Wang a New Contract
The Yankees will make it official on Saturday, when it is highly likely they do not offer Wang a contract for 2010. That would make Wang a free agent, and it could make him a popular target for teams seeking a low-risk, high-reward starter.
Wang is eligible for salary arbitration, and the rules specify the Yankees must offer him at least $4 million, or 80 percent of his $5 million salary in 2009. That is more than the team wants to pay for a pitcher who had surgery on July 29 to repair a torn shoulder capsule.
The Yankees would like to re-sign Wang to a minor league deal to minimize their risk; if Wang makes the major league team, he would presumably be paid well. But as a free agent, of course, Wang could seek offers from all teams.
Wang’s agent, Alan Nero, said at the winter meetings that he was hopeful Wang could return by opening day. The Yankees believe it could take until June, and during the playoffs, Wang split the difference, saying he might return in May.
I’d like to see the Yankees bring Wang back on a minor league deal with incentives if he’s amenable to it, but I have a feeling some team’s going offer him more money than the Yankees may be willing to. I’ll wish him well wherever he ends up, unless it’s northeast of New York.
The article also mentions that the Yankees will tender contracts to Melky Cabrera and Chad Gaudin, and are considering it for Sergio Mitre. Those are the only players the Yankee need to make a decision on this year.
Monday, August 24, 2009
2008 vs. 2009 Yankees Pitching
Following up on this post about where the 2009 Yankees have improved compared to 2008, here's a look at the pitching staffs.I'm just going to show the top five starters and top five relievers in terms of IP, then show everyone else collectively. Again, I'm pro-rating the 2009 stats to 162 games to allow direct comparison, even though we shouldn't assume the players will perform exactly as they have over the rest of the season.
| Role | 2008 | IP | RSAR | 2009 | IP | RSAR | WAR +/- |
| SP1 | Mike Mussina | 200 | 50 | C.C. Sabathia* | 242 | 65 | 1.5 |
| SP2 | Andy Pettitte* | 204 | 25 | A.J. Burnett | 207 | 45 | 1.9 |
| SP3 | Darrell Rasner | 113 | 2 | Andy Pettitte* | 199 | 32 | 3.0 |
| SP4 | Chien-Ming Wang | 95 | 20 | Joba Chamberlain | 165 | 29 | 0.9 |
| SP5 | Sidney Ponson | 80 | 1 | Chien-Ming Wang | 55 | -22 | -2.3 |
| Total | 693 | 99 | 869 | 148 | 4.9 | ||
| CL | Mariano Rivera | 71 | 31 | Mariano Rivera | 69 | 27 | -0.4 |
| RP | Jose Veras | 58 | 11 | Philip Hughes | 92 | 21 | 1.0 |
| RP | Edwar Ramirez | 55 | 8 | Alfredo Aceves | 83 | 10 | 0.2 |
| RP | Kyle Farnsworth | 44 | 8 | Phil Coke* | 65 | 2 | -0.6 |
| RP | Joba Chamberlain | 35 | 10 | David Robertson | 47 | 7 | -0.3 |
| Total | 263 | 68 | 357 | 66 | -0.2 | ||
| The Rest | 486 | 30 | The Rest | 229 | -20 | -5.0 | |
| Total | 1442 | 196 | 1455 | 194 | -0.2 |
RSAR: Park-adjusted runs saved above replacement level.
WAR +/-: Difference in wins above replacement (2009 RSAR - 2008 RSAR at each slot, divided by 10.)
When the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia, I saw more than a few comments, mostly from Yankee haters, about how all he was going to do was replace Mike Mussina and how it was a minimal upgrade. That sort of "analysis" was pretty lazy, as the numbers show. While Moose was great last year, Sabathia projected to be a win or a win and half better because he would pitch a lot more innings, even if the rate of performance was similar. So far Sabathia has been worth every penny of his contract.
Yeah, he's inconsistent, but A.J. Burnett has also been very valuable. He leads the Yankees in quality starts with 17, and the Yankees are 16-9 in his starts. He's on pace to be 4.5 WAR, which would be a win and a half better than he projected to be, since his projections assumed he'd miss a non-trivial amount of time. I have some concerns about the fact that Burnett's outpitched his FIP to this point, but his history shows that his FIP is high and should come down some. Burnett's on pace to be close to two wins better than last year's #2 starter, Andy Pettitte.
Speaking of Pettitte, he's on pace to be a bit better than last year in terms of RSAR, even though his FIP in 2009 is higher than 2008 (4.08 vs. 3.71). My first thought was that it must be the HRs in NYS, but he's essentially giving up HRs at the same rate as he did last year (2.16% of batters faced homered against him in 2008, compared to 2.44% in 2009). The difference is in his walk rate, as he's walking around 9% of the batters he's faced compared to 6% this year. Thankfully, last year's abnormally high BABIP of .339 has come down significantly this season to .314, so he's been far less hittable. In 2008, batters hit .290/.338/.422 against Pettitte, and this year it's .269/.334/.403. The fact that Pettitte is the third Yankee starter instead of Darrell Rasner in terms of innings pitched this season has been close to a 3 win upgrade.
We know Joba Chamberlain's scuffled, but he's still been an asset, and is on pace to end the season around 3 WAR. Ignoring leverage, that's just about as valuable as Mariano Rivera was in 2008 in a ridiculously sublime season. Joba should stay in the rotation going forward, and will hopefully start to show some of the ability to dominate that he's flashed at times a little more frequently.
Of course, now we have to deal with the 'Keep Hughes in the bullpen' clowns, but that's a fight for next season.
Fifth starter this year has been a hodge-podge, but right now Chien-Ming Wang is listed as the fifth starter. As we know, it was a terrible season for Wang both health-wise and performance-wise, but to see that it's 22 runs WORSE than Snacks Pontoon was in 2008 really kind of hammers it home, huh?
The Yankees' top four starters are on pace to collectively be 7.2 wins better than last years'. That's a massive upgrade. Of particular importance is the innings pitched. Last year's top five starters managed 693 innings, and this year's are on pace to pitch 869 innings. This obviously has benefits to the bullpen in terms of lessening their workload and perhaps in preventing some of the less appealing options pitching more frequently
Moving onto the pen, it's a testament to how ridiculously good Mariano Rivera was in 2008 that a season where he's got a 1.87 ERA would be a downgrade, but there you have it.
Phil Hughes has stepped in as the all important "Bridge to Mo" in 2009. His pro-rated innings are probably too high since he piled up some innings as a starter, but with 38 games left he should get another 15 innings or so and end the year in the 80-85 IP range. At that rate, he'd still be an upgrade over Jose Veras (remember him?) in 2008.
Alfredo Aceves looks like he has either hit the wall, is hiding an injury, or is having a correction after pitching over his head most of the year. I think he's still a useful arm in middle reliever, but he's probably closer to a 4.00 ERA guy than a 2.00 ERA guy. At his current rate he'd be a touch more valuable than Edwar Ramirez was in 2008.
Phil Coke's poor ERA masks the fact that he's actually been pretty useful as a tactical weapon. With Damaso Marte back now, Coke can hopefully be restricted to more of LOOGY role, where he should continue to be useful. Still, in terms of RSAR he's been a touch worse than the Farns was last year.
David Robertson's been pretty good in 2009, aside from his walk rate. Until he gets that under control he's probably not going to see a ton of work in high-leverage situations, but he's definitely a nice arm to have in the pen. At his current pace he'll be a little worse than Joba was in his 35 relief innings last season.
Collectively the top five relievers from 2009 have been roughly the same as the 2008 group, a couple of runs worse.
The rest of the staff in 2009 has been a lot worse than 2008, although 11 runs of the 20 run difference is Anthony Claggett's 3 innings of 14 hit, 13 run ball. The other chief culprits are Damaso Marte (-7) and Sergio Mitre (-8). Both pitchers will either start to pitch better or stop getting used, so I'm not worried about them.
Adding it all up, this year's staff to this point would end the year a touch worse than last year's, but the front-line talent (top four starters and top five relievers) look a lot better. Also, since we know some of the culprits responsible for the negtive performances are no longer part of the equation (Veras, Albaladejo, Claggett) we should probably be pretty comfortable the staff willl be as good or better going forward.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Yankee Pitcher Run Values Through Games of August 12, 2009
| Lg Rank | Name | Team | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | RSAR |
| 12 | Sabathia, CC | NYA | SP | 162.7 | 145 | 14 | 45 | 123 | 3.98 | 3.67 | 41.2 |
| 14 | Burnett, A.J. | NYA | SP | 145.7 | 130 | 16 | 73 | 130 | 3.95 | 4.51 | 37.4 |
| 26 | Pettitte, Andy | NYA | SP | 141.3 | 146 | 16 | 53 | 103 | 4.58 | 4.36 | 26.3 |
| 32 | Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | SP | 121.7 | 116 | 16 | 59 | 107 | 4.59 | 4.83 | 22.7 |
| 42 | Rivera, Mariano | NYA | RP | 49 | 39 | 6 | 7 | 55 | 2.20 | 2.90 | 18.1 |
| 57 | Hughes, Phil | NYA | RP | 67 | 57 | 7 | 22 | 73 | 3.63 | 3.52 | 14.2 |
| 63 | Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | RP | 57.3 | 45 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 3.45 | 4.11 | 13.3 |
| 112 | Robertson, David A | NYA | RP | 33.3 | 25 | 3 | 19 | 47 | 4.05 | 3.15 | 5.5 |
| 154 | Melancon, Mark D | NYA | RP | 11.3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3.97 | 4.06 | 2.0 |
| 167 | Gaudin, Chad | NYA | RP | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.68 | 1.2 |
| 174 | Tomko, Brett | NYA | RP | 20.7 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 5.23 | 6.28 | 0.7 |
| 180 | Bruney, Brian A | NYA | RP | 23.7 | 23 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 5.32 | 4.15 | 0.6 |
| 184 | Coke, Phil | NYA | RP | 48 | 38 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 5.44 | 4.74 | 0.6 |
| 198 | Ramirez, Edwar E | NYA | RP | 17.3 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 5.71 | 8.43 | -0.3 |
| 215 | Veras, Jose | NYA | RP | 25.7 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 5.96 | 6.42 | -1.2 |
| 235 | Albaladejo, Jonathan | NYA | RP | 25.7 | 29 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 6.31 | 5.91 | -2.2 |
| 268 | Mitre, Sergio | NYA | SP | 23 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 8.22 | 5.05 | -5.0 |
| 278 | Marte, Damaso | NYA | RP | 5.3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15.19 | 9.93 | -5.7 |
| 298 | Claggett, Anthony | NYA | RP | 2.7 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 33.75 | 15.18 | -8.3 |
| 305 | Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | SP | 42 | 66 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 9.86 | 5.40 | -16.7 |
| 7 | Total | 1025 | 985 | 135 | 407 | 873 | 4.72 | 4.47 | 144.3 |
Lg Rank: American League rank in RSAR
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level, calculated as N times park factor multiplier times league RA - pitcher RA divided by nine times IP, where N = 1.3 for SP and 1.2 for RP
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Yankees.com: Amazing Joba mows down Rays
ST. PETERSBURG—Joba Chamberlain took his new attitude on the road and kept the results coming, hurling eight strong innings, as the Yankees defeated the Rays, 6-2, on Wednesday at Tropicana Field.
Chamberlain returned for the second half refreshed, vowing to bid farewell to his earlier starting troubles. For a third consecutive start, he kept his word, continuing to mow down opposing lineups and turning in his best effort so far.
The 23-year-old right-hander limited Tampa Bay to just three hits in the contest, facing the minimum through the first four frames. Chamberlain walked two and struck out five, improving to 3-0 with an 0.83 ERA since he spent four days relaxing in his Nebraska backyard during the All-Star break.
Joba’s obviously the big story out of tonight’s game. Since the All Star Break, he’s put up an 0.83 ERA over three starts and 21.2 innings. He’s allowed 8 hits and has held opposing batters to a line of .114/.222/.200. He’s got a component ERA of 1.38. His FIP is 3.43, which is still very respectable, even if it it’s a bit higher than his ERA and CERA.
I sometimes overstate the importance of games, but this series was very important. The Yankees have now put the Rays in a position where they have to be eight games better than the Yanks over 60 odd games to catch them. Even if you believe the Rays are better than the Yankees (and most current evidence indicates that’s NOT the case), it’s pretty hard to make a case that they would be 21 games better over a full season, which is what they’d have to be over the rest of the season to catch the Yankees.
With Oakland taking two of three from Boston while the Yankees were taking two of three from Tampa Bay, the Yankees gained another game in the AL East lead. That they did it on the road against one of the better teams in baseball while Boston was playing one of the worst teams in baseball at home makes it even more critical. While the division race is far from over, the statistical outcome that should have been expected over the last three days would be Boston gaining a game. Further proof that you just can’t predict baseball.
So yeah, even though Chien-Ming Wang is done for the year, and even though Brian Bruney continues to disappoint, and even though Alfredo Aceves is fatigued, things are going pretty well.
MLB.com: Wang to have season-ending surgery
ST. PETERSBURG—Chien-Ming Wang will have arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder capsule on Wednesday under the care of Dr. James Andrews and will miss the remainder of the 2009 season.
The Yankees hurler had another MRI examination performed on Monday in Birmingham, Ala., meeting with Andrews to discuss the results and the upcoming procedure on Tuesday.
Yankees manager Joe Girardi said that the team has no timeframe on how long Wang will need to recover, but it will learn more after the surgery is complete.
Not really a surprise at this point, but hopefully this will go smoothly and Wang can put 2009 behind him. Wang’s had it hard this year.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
AL Starting Pitcher Run Values Through the All Star Break
| Rank | Name | Team | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | RSAR |
| 1 | *Greinke, Zack Z | KC | SP | 127.3 | 116 | 4 | 21 | 129 | 2.69 | 2.06 | 48.0 |
| 2 | *Jackson, Edwin | DET | SP | 121.7 | 94 | 10 | 35 | 97 | 2.96 | 3.52 | 41.0 |
| 3 | Blackburn, Nick N | MIN | SP | 123.3 | 129 | 10 | 29 | 54 | 3.65 | 4.04 | 37.1 |
| 4 | Millwood, Kevin | TEX | SP | 130 | 124 | 17 | 44 | 79 | 3.74 | 4.82 | 35.3 |
| 5 | *Halladay, Roy | TOR | SP | 123 | 118 | 10 | 17 | 106 | 3.00 | 2.96 | 34.3 |
| 6 | *Hernandez, Felix A | SEA | SP | 124.7 | 106 | 8 | 36 | 121 | 2.96 | 3.04 | 33.4 |
| 7 | Weaver, Jered D | LAA | SP | 120.3 | 99 | 14 | 36 | 104 | 3.44 | 3.87 | 33.0 |
| 8 | *Verlander, Justin B | DET | SP | 122.3 | 108 | 10 | 38 | 149 | 3.75 | 2.69 | 30.7 |
| 9 | Sabathia, CC | NYA | SP | 128.3 | 110 | 11 | 38 | 95 | 4.07 | 3.73 | 28.2 |
| 10 | *Beckett, Josh | BOS | SP | 121 | 104 | 10 | 35 | 110 | 3.87 | 3.36 | 27.7 |
| 11 | Lee, Cliff | CLE | SP | 127 | 143 | 8 | 33 | 93 | 3.47 | 3.34 | 27.3 |
| 12 | Washburn, Jarrod | SEA | SP | 112.3 | 94 | 11 | 28 | 72 | 3.20 | 3.95 | 26.9 |
| 13 | Shields, James A | TB | SP | 129 | 136 | 14 | 26 | 90 | 3.84 | 3.78 | 26.7 |
| 14 | Garza, Matt | TB | SP | 115.7 | 95 | 15 | 45 | 102 | 3.81 | 4.38 | 24.3 |
| 15 | Romero, Ricky | TOR | SP | 87 | 80 | 11 | 30 | 69 | 3.00 | 4.35 | 24.2 |
| 16 | Feldman, Scott | TEX | SP | 96.3 | 83 | 11 | 31 | 46 | 3.92 | 4.78 | 24.2 |
| 17 | Burnett, A.J. | NYA | SP | 107.3 | 95 | 14 | 53 | 101 | 4.02 | 4.65 | 24.1 |
| 18 | Braden, Dallas L | OAK | SP | 112.3 | 111 | 7 | 30 | 73 | 3.45 | 3.44 | 23.6 |
| 19 | Lester, Jon T | BOS | SP | 114 | 112 | 13 | 35 | 131 | 4.11 | 3.32 | 23.2 |
| 20 | Buehrle, Mark | CHA | SP | 118 | 114 | 17 | 26 | 66 | 3.89 | 4.63 | 22.1 |
| 21 | Bergesen, Brad | BAL | SP | 104.3 | 100 | 10 | 25 | 53 | 3.80 | 4.14 | 21.7 |
| 22 | Bedard, Erik | SEA | SP | 75.3 | 59 | 7 | 27 | 78 | 2.87 | 3.53 | 21.0 |
| 23 | *Wakefield, Tim | BOS | SP | 108.7 | 113 | 8 | 37 | 61 | 4.31 | 4.26 | 19.7 |
| 24 | Bannister, Brian P | KC | SP | 98.3 | 92 | 8 | 32 | 62 | 4.48 | 3.93 | 18.3 |
| 25 | Danks, John W | CHA | SP | 101.3 | 90 | 11 | 37 | 89 | 4.09 | 4.03 | 16.7 |
| 26 | Niemann, Jeff | TB | SP | 91.7 | 90 | 8 | 38 | 52 | 4.12 | 4.57 | 16.1 |
| 27 | Richmond, Scott | TOR | SP | 85.3 | 72 | 15 | 30 | 71 | 3.90 | 4.80 | 15.0 |
| 28 | Slowey, Kevin | MIN | SP | 90.7 | 113 | 15 | 15 | 75 | 4.96 | 4.28 | 14.9 |
| 29 | Perkins, Glen W | MIN | SP | 78.3 | 88 | 7 | 16 | 36 | 4.71 | 4.05 | 14.9 |
| 30 | Padilla, Vicente | TEX | SP | 89.3 | 96 | 7 | 39 | 49 | 4.74 | 4.63 | 14.8 |
| 31 | Porcello, Rick A | DET | SP | 87 | 96 | 13 | 31 | 47 | 4.66 | 5.12 | 13.4 |
| 32 | Saunders, Joe | LAA | SP | 112.3 | 115 | 21 | 39 | 64 | 4.89 | 5.57 | 13.1 |
| 33 | Meche, Gil | KC | SP | 108 | 113 | 11 | 49 | 87 | 5.17 | 4.29 | 12.2 |
| 34 | Baker, Scott S | MIN | SP | 101.3 | 102 | 18 | 21 | 82 | 5.51 | 4.47 | 10.9 |
| 35 | Floyd, Gavin C | CHA | SP | 115.7 | 110 | 10 | 41 | 92 | 4.75 | 3.73 | 10.5 |
| 36 | Outman, Josh | OAK | SP | 67.3 | 53 | 9 | 25 | 53 | 4.01 | 4.44 | 9.8 |
| 37 | Hunter, Tommy | TEX | SP | 23 | 21 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 2.35 | 4.20 | 9.6 |
| 38 | Uehara, Koji | BAL | SP | 66.7 | 71 | 7 | 12 | 48 | 4.45 | 3.58 | 9.0 |
| 39 | Pettitte, Andy | NYA | SP | 107.7 | 121 | 15 | 44 | 70 | 5.35 | 4.95 | 8.9 |
| 40 | Vargas, Jason M | SEA | SP | 63.7 | 67 | 10 | 19 | 41 | 4.10 | 4.76 | 8.7 |
| 41 | Galarraga, Armando | DET | SP | 99 | 110 | 17 | 43 | 65 | 5.27 | 5.47 | 8.6 |
| 42 | McCarthy, Brandon P | TEX | SP | 64 | 66 | 11 | 26 | 44 | 5.06 | 5.33 | 8.4 |
| 43 | Mazzaro, Vince M | OAK | SP | 47.7 | 48 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 8.2 |
| 44 | Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | SP | 89 | 97 | 12 | 42 | 78 | 5.26 | 4.84 | 8.2 |
| 45 | Liriano, Francisco | MIN | SP | 102 | 106 | 14 | 46 | 93 | 5.82 | 4.62 | 7.6 |
| 46 | Palmer, Matt | LAA | SP | 75 | 72 | 7 | 34 | 43 | 5.04 | 4.67 | 7.5 |
| 47 | Penny, Brad | BOS | SP | 93.7 | 110 | 10 | 29 | 62 | 5.28 | 4.28 | 7.1 |
| 48 | Swarzak, Anthony | MIN | SP | 32 | 35 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 6.8 |
| 49 | Hernandez, David | BAL | SP | 32 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 3.94 | 4.44 | 6.1 |
| 50 | O'Sullivan, Sean D | LAA | SP | 23.7 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 3.80 | 4.72 | 5.6 |
| 51 | Lackey, John | LAA | SP | 73 | 85 | 8 | 21 | 61 | 5.30 | 3.98 | 5.3 |
| 52 | Contreras, Jose | CHA | SP | 73.3 | 70 | 8 | 22 | 55 | 5.03 | 3.94 | 4.2 |
| 53 | Adenhart, Nick | LAA | SP | 6 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.00 | 2.99 | 3.9 |
| 54 | Hochevar, Luke | KC | SP | 57.3 | 56 | 9 | 20 | 26 | 5.65 | 5.55 | 3.5 |
| 55 | Rzepczynski, Marc W | TOR | SP | 12 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 3.00 | 3.99 | 3.3 |
| 56 | Tallet, Brian | TOR | SP | 103.7 | 98 | 12 | 51 | 78 | 5.21 | 4.69 | 2.8 |
| 57 | Moseley, Dustin A | LAA | SP | 14.7 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4.91 | 5.14 | 1.7 |
| 58 | Loux, Shane | LAA | SP | 38.3 | 52 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 5.63 | 4.28 | 1.3 |
| 59 | Escobar, Kelvim | LAA | SP | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 3.60 | 4.16 | 1.3 |
| 60 | Harrison, Matt | TEX | SP | 63.3 | 81 | 9 | 23 | 34 | 6.11 | 5.12 | 1.3 |
| 61 | Smoltz, John | BOS | SP | 20 | 24 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 5.40 | 2.36 | 1.3 |
| 62 | Davies, Kyle K | KC | SP | 79.7 | 81 | 14 | 41 | 54 | 6.21 | 5.75 | 0.2 |
| 63 | Rowland-Smith, Ryan B | SEA | SP | 3.3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5.40 | 6.16 | -0.1 |
| 64 | Ray, Robert A | TOR | SP | 24.3 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 5.55 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 65 | Cahill, Trevor | OAK | SP | 98.3 | 100 | 18 | 41 | 47 | 5.31 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| 66 | Cecil, Brett | TOR | SP | 45 | 59 | 8 | 17 | 33 | 5.60 | 5.34 | -0.8 |
| 67 | Nippert, Dustin D | TEX | SP | 7.3 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7.36 | 4.52 | -0.8 |
| 68 | Lewis, Scott | CLE | SP | 4.3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8.31 | 8.47 | -1.5 |
| 69 | Chen, Bruce | KC | SP | 20 | 22 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 7.20 | 6.41 | -2.1 |
| 70 | Price, David T | TB | SP | 44 | 41 | 7 | 31 | 47 | 6.14 | 5.27 | -2.1 |
| 71 | Figaro, Alfredo | DET | SP | 11 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 8.18 | 4.70 | -2.5 |
| 72 | Guthrie, Jeremy | BAL | SP | 101 | 110 | 20 | 34 | 62 | 5.88 | 5.66 | -2.6 |
| 73 | Pavano, Carl | CLE | SP | 107 | 127 | 11 | 20 | 77 | 5.55 | 3.70 | -2.6 |
| 74 | Simon, Alfredo | BAL | SP | 6.3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9.95 | 13.42 | -3.1 |
| 75 | Berken, Jason T | BAL | SP | 46 | 57 | 3 | 17 | 26 | 6.26 | 4.25 | -3.1 |
| 76 | Bonderman, Jeremy | DET | SP | 4 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13.50 | 14.66 | -3.2 |
| 77 | Janssen, Casey C | TOR | SP | 26 | 40 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 6.58 | 5.35 | -3.3 |
| 78 | Litsch, Jesse | TOR | SP | 9 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 9.00 | 7.83 | -3.6 |
| 79 | Sowers, Jeremy B | CLE | SP | 57.7 | 65 | 7 | 25 | 30 | 5.93 | 4.95 | -3.9 |
| 80 | Anderson, Brett F | OAK | SP | 87.3 | 95 | 13 | 25 | 64 | 5.67 | 4.56 | -4.1 |
| 81 | Colon, Bartolo | CHA | SP | 55.3 | 63 | 12 | 20 | 36 | 6.34 | 5.60 | -5.0 |
| 82 | Willis, Dontrelle | DET | SP | 33.7 | 37 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 7.49 | 6.28 | -5.1 |
| 83 | Ortega, Anthony Y | LAA | SP | 12.7 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10.66 | 7.58 | -6.5 |
| 84 | Purcey, David K | TOR | SP | 25.7 | 28 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 7.71 | 5.26 | -6.6 |
| 85 | Mills, Bradley | TOR | SP | 7.7 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14.09 | 9.94 | -7.5 |
| 86 | Reyes, Anthony L | CLE | SP | 38.3 | 40 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 7.04 | 5.66 | -7.5 |
| 87 | Burres, Brian | TOR | SP | 6.3 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 17.05 | 4.26 | -8.4 |
| 88 | Matsuzaka, Daisuke | BOS | SP | 35 | 59 | 8 | 18 | 34 | 8.23 | 5.73 | -8.6 |
| 89 | Sonnanstine, Andy | TB | SP | 81.7 | 103 | 15 | 22 | 50 | 6.72 | 5.17 | -9.3 |
| 90 | Eveland, Dana J | OAK | SP | 27 | 47 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 8.33 | 5.34 | -9.6 |
| 91 | Santana, Ervin R | LAA | SP | 40.3 | 60 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 8.26 | 5.66 | -10.1 |
| 92 | Hill, Rich | BAL | SP | 52 | 59 | 6 | 32 | 43 | 7.44 | 4.79 | -10.4 |
| 93 | Silva, Carlos | SEA | SP | 28.7 | 38 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 8.48 | 5.98 | -10.6 |
| 94 | Huff, David G | CLE | SP | 56.3 | 74 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 7.03 | 5.06 | -11.0 |
| 95 | Eaton, Adam | BAL | SP | 41 | 56 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 8.56 | 5.96 | -13.3 |
| 96 | Kazmir, Scott E | TB | SP | 62 | 78 | 11 | 33 | 50 | 7.69 | 5.55 | -13.8 |
| 97 | Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | SP | 42 | 66 | 7 | 19 | 29 | 9.86 | 5.37 | -16.9 |
| 98 | Carmona, Fausto C | CLE | SP | 60.7 | 69 | 9 | 41 | 36 | 8.16 | 6.08 | -19.7 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings (earned and unearned)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level starter
*Denotes All-Star
Although his ERA is starting to climb towards reasonable levels, Zach Greinke's still having a monster year. If you look at his FIP, his peripheral are better than his ERA shows, which bodes well for a strong second half. Edwin Jackson went from overrated in Tampa to perhaps underrated now. His peripherals this year are much improved, although his ERA looks like it may be a half run too high. Kevin Milwood has been putting up strings of good starts, but his FIP hasn't been very good and he's got an 8.83 ERA over his last three starts.
Looking at the Yankees, we see that C.C. Sabathia has been their most valuable starter despite being a slight disappointment. When Sabathia won the Cy Young in 2007, he walked 37 in 241 innings. This year's he's already walked 38 in 128.3 innings. We have a long track record of better from C.C., so we should expect better going forward. Of course, there are those he think he's an NL pitcher because of his time in Milwaukee, so I'll just remind them HE WON THE AL CY YOUNG IN 2007! A.J. Burnett's RA is right around his projections and he's been about as valuable as the numbers expected, which is a good thing. The bad thing is his underlying performance doesn't support either of those two items right now. So Burnett will likely have to actually start pitching better, or will lose some of his first half effectiveness. I'd bet on the former, but then again I liked the Burnett signing so I may be biased.
Despite their recent struggles, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain are still above replacement level once you adjust for park. There are still legitimate reasons to be concerned about them going forward though. Pettitte in particular concerns me. Given his age and the fact that he's gotten more and more hittable, I've felt his margin for error was pretty small. Still, he seems to have bad stretches every year so I wouldn't completely write him off yet.
I won't talk about Chien-Ming Wang. I'll just wish him a speedy recovery, especially given Joba's and Pettitte's issues.
I'm going to pull a Girardi and treat Phil Hughes as a reliever so I didn't include him here.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
Yankees.com: Posada propels Yanks to walk-off win
NEW YORK—Jorge Posada ripped a game-winning single to center field off Shawn Camp in the bottom of the 12th inning as the Yankees posted a 6-5 Independence Day victory over the Blue Jays on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.
Camp opened his third frame of work by allowing a double to Mark Teixeira that struck the first-base bag. An intentional walk to Alex Rodriguez followed, and Robinson Cano bunted into a fielder’s choice before Posada came through with the hit to end it. Brett Tomko hurled the final inning to log the victory.
Chien-Ming Wang had an MRI at Columbia Presbyterian and was back at the park by the end of the game.
He is headed for the DL with what is being described as a strain with bursitis. But everybody seems to think that he will be back within a month.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Yankees.com: Rivera notches 500th save
NEW YORK -- Mariano Rivera became just the second member of baseball's prestigious 500-save club on Sunday, getting four outs to preserve a 4-2 Yankees victory in a sweep of the Mets at Citi Field.Mo didn't just pick up save #500, he's now OBP-ing .500 as well.
Rivera was summoned in the eighth inning after Chien-Ming Wang went 5 1/3 innings and the bullpen brought the Yankees close to a series sweep of their cross-town rivals.
He answered the call, striking out Omir Santos looking to strand two Mets aboard in the eighth -- and working a bases-loaded, full-count walk in the ninth against fellow closer Francisco Rodriguez -- before setting down the side in the ninth, locking down his 18th save in 19 opportunities this season to reach the round "500" number.
Reader Ryan asked if Mo recorded his first RBI at the oldest age ever.
| Player | Year | Age |
| Satchel Paige | 1952 | 46 |
| Fred Johnson | 1938 | 44 |
| Diomedes Olivo | 1962 | 43 |
| Orlando Hernandez | 2006 | 41 |
| Chuck Hostetler | 1944 | 41 |
| David Wells | 2004 | 41 |
| Joe Berry | 1944 | 40 |
| Roger Clemens | 2002 | 40 |
| Chuck Finley | 2002 | 40 |
| Ed Green | 1890 | 40 |
| Frank Tanana | 1993 | 40 |
| Mariano Rivera | 2009 | 39 |
| Lou Koupal | 1937 | 39 |
| Connie Marrero | 1950 | 39 |
| Alex McColl | 1933 | 39 |
| Bill McGhee | 1944 | 39 |
| Bill Morrell | 1931 | 38 |
| Chi-Chi Olivo | 1966 | 38 |
| Steve Reed | 2003 | 38 |
| Lee Riley | 1944 | 38 |
| Bob Thurman | 1955 | 38 |
| Paul Abbott | 2004 | 37 |
| Buzz Clarkson | 1952 | 37 |
| Minnie Mendoza | 1970 | 37 |
We are lucky to have Mo playing for our favorite team.
Chien-Ming Wang wasn't great, but he was decent and he appears to be getting stronger with each outing. He's finally picked up his elusive first win of the year, working up to 85 pitches and recording 11 of his BIP outs via grounder. His season line is going to suck regardless of how he does from here on out, but I think he's shown enough to remain in the rotation for now. Over his last seven outings including tonight (two relief appearances and five starts), he's got an ERA of 5.21 but a FIP of 4.07. Here are his batted ball splits as well:
| Dates | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| Apr 8 - May 22 | 30% | 46% | 24% |
| May 27 - Jun 28 | 56% | 32% | 12% |
While I wouldn't say he's back just yet, I'd say he's heading in the right direction.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Yankees.com: Burnett’s gem all Yanks need in Queens
NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and allowed just one hit in seven dominant frames, striking out a season-high 10 batters as the Yankees defeated the Mets, 5-0, on Saturday at Citi Field.
Jorge Posada hit a three-run homer to supplement Nick Swisher’s earlier solo shot, toppling starter Tim Redding as the Yankees defeated their crosstown rivals for the fourth time in five contests this season.
Beating the Mets is always enjoyable. Burnett lowered his ERA on the season to 3.93 in this game, That happens to be the exact ERA of his average projection entering 2009. His peripherals are still not quite as good as his ERA, but he’s been pretty good in June, throwing, 30 innings of 2.10 ERA, with 35 Ks, 16 BB, and 3 HRs. allowed.
Now we cross our fingers and hope the Wang comes up big tomorrow.
Friday, June 26, 2009
AL wOBA For Hitters and Pitchers Through Games of June 25, 2009
I was thinking of ways to compare pitcher and hitter value more directly and thought that it might be interesting to put them on the same scale. We often hear from people spouting conventional wisdom that a starting pitcher isn't worth as much as a position player because "they only pitch once every five days." However, if you look at their impact on a batter by batter basis, a top starting pitcher may impact 1000 plate appearances in any single season, compared to 700 at most by a hitter.So what I did was take the batting stats against every pitcher in the AL, and calculate the wOBA against them. Then I subtracted that wOBA from the league average wOBA and got a difference. That then gets added to the league average wOBA to get basically an inverse wOBA against, which should scale to what a hitter's wOBA is. From there, you can calculate runs above average using (wOBA - lgwOBA) divided by 1.15 times either PA or BF, or runs above replacement using the same formulat but substituting something like n times lgwOBA to adjust for replacement level.
Here's how the AL looks for hitters and pitchers doing this for players with at least 100 PAs or batters faced. I'm using 'n' = 0.92 to convert lgwOBA to replacement level (.8 times 1.15). Bear in mind there are no position-adjustments here.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | PA | wOBA | RAA | RAR |
| Greinke, Zack Z | KC | AL | SP | 429 | .399 | 26 | 36 |
| Mauer, Joe | MIN | AL | C | 217 | .485 | 29 | 34 |
| Jackson, Edwin | DET | AL | SP | 401 | .390 | 21 | 31 |
| Halladay, Roy | TOR | AL | SP | 404 | .389 | 21 | 30 |
| Martinez, Victor | CLE | AL | 1B | 323 | .409 | 21 | 28 |
| Youkilis, Kevin E | BOS | AL | 1B | 250 | .437 | 22 | 28 |
| Bay, Jason | BOS | AL | LF | 311 | .411 | 21 | 28 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYA | AL | 1B | 312 | .409 | 20 | 28 |
| Morneau, Justin | MIN | AL | 1B | 323 | .405 | 20 | 28 |
| Weaver, Jered D | LAA | AL | SP | 386 | .384 | 19 | 27 |
| Longoria, Evan | TB | AL | 3B | 295 | .414 | 20 | 27 |
| Zobrist, Ben T | TB | AL | RF | 238 | .437 | 21 | 27 |
| Branyan, Russell | SEA | AL | 1B | 268 | .422 | 20 | 27 |
| Hernandez, Felix A | SEA | AL | SP | 425 | .375 | 17 | 27 |
| Sabathia, CC | NYA | AL | SP | 417 | .376 | 17 | 27 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | DET | AL | 1B | 288 | .413 | 20 | 27 |
| Lind, Adam A | TOR | AL | DH | 316 | .402 | 19 | 26 |
| Hunter, Torii | LAA | AL | CF | 274 | .411 | 18 | 25 |
| Verlander, Justin B | DET | AL | SP | 400 | .372 | 15 | 24 |
| Pena, Carlos | TB | AL | 1B | 315 | .393 | 16 | 24 |
| Garza, Matt | TB | AL | SP | 399 | .367 | 13 | 22 |
| Suzuki, Ichiro | SEA | AL | RF | 298 | .393 | 15 | 22 |
| Lee, Cliff | CLE | AL | SP | 469 | .356 | 11 | 22 |
| Beckett, Josh | BOS | AL | SP | 385 | .366 | 12 | 21 |
| Washburn, Jarrod | SEA | AL | SP | 370 | .368 | 13 | 21 |
| Choo, Shin-Soo | CLE | AL | RF | 319 | .382 | 13 | 21 |
| Bartlett, Jason A | TB | AL | SS | 216 | .418 | 16 | 21 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYA | AL | LF | 301 | .386 | 14 | 21 |
| Kubel, Jason J | MIN | AL | DH | 252 | .394 | 13 | 19 |
| Bailey, Andrew S | OAK | AL | RP | 180 | .421 | 14 | 18 |
| Blackburn, Nick N | MIN | AL | SP | 422 | .353 | 9 | 18 |
| Millwood, Kevin | TEX | AL | SP | 441 | .350 | 8 | 18 |
| Braden, Dallas L | OAK | AL | SP | 396 | .356 | 9 | 18 |
| Buehrle, Mark | CHA | AL | SP | 377 | .358 | 10 | 18 |
| Kinsler, Ian M | TEX | AL | 2B | 328 | .371 | 11 | 18 |
| Inge, Brandon | DET | AL | 3B | 287 | .379 | 11 | 18 |
| Overbay, Lyle | TOR | AL | 1B | 225 | .398 | 12 | 18 |
| Tallet, Brian | TOR | AL | SP | 377 | .356 | 9 | 18 |
| Floyd, Gavin C | CHA | AL | SP | 409 | .351 | 8 | 17 |
| Scutaro, Marco | TOR | AL | SS | 353 | .364 | 9 | 17 |
| Rolen, Scott | TOR | AL | 3B | 264 | .383 | 11 | 17 |
| Outman, Josh | OAK | AL | SP | 276 | .374 | 11 | 17 |
| Young, Michael | TEX | AL | 3B | 305 | .371 | 10 | 17 |
| Bedard, Erik | SEA | AL | SP | 271 | .375 | 11 | 17 |
| Cuddyer, Michael | MIN | AL | RF | 279 | .376 | 10 | 17 |
| Hill, Aaron W | TOR | AL | 2B | 344 | .362 | 8 | 16 |
| Drew, J.D. | BOS | AL | RF | 254 | .382 | 11 | 16 |
| Dye, Jermaine | CHA | AL | RF | 259 | .379 | 10 | 16 |
| Scott, Luke B | BAL | AL | DH | 207 | .397 | 11 | 16 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYA | AL | SS | 319 | .365 | 9 | 16 |
| Jones, Adam L | BAL | AL | CF | 287 | .371 | 9 | 16 |
| Figgins, Chone | LAA | AL | 3B | 314 | .365 | 8 | 16 |
| Saunders, Joe | LAA | AL | SP | 412 | .346 | 6 | 16 |
| Swisher, Nick T | NYA | AL | RF | 281 | .370 | 9 | 15 |
| Crawford, Carl | TB | AL | LF | 324 | .362 | 8 | 15 |
| Markakis, Nick | BAL | AL | RF | 319 | .360 | 7 | 14 |
| Abreu, Bobby | LAA | AL | RF | 276 | .367 | 8 | 14 |
| Richmond, Scott | TOR | AL | SP | 320 | .354 | 7 | 14 |
| Cormier, Lance R | TB | AL | RP | 179 | .395 | 10 | 14 |
| Thome, Jim | CHA | AL | DH | 219 | .382 | 9 | 14 |
| Bannister, Brian P | KC | AL | SP | 334 | .352 | 7 | 14 |
| Feldman, Scott | TEX | AL | SP | 315 | .354 | 7 | 14 |
| Roberts, Brian | BAL | AL | 2B | 328 | .355 | 6 | 14 |
| Cruz, Nelson R | TEX | AL | RF | 284 | .363 | 7 | 14 |
| Shields, James A | TB | AL | SP | 420 | .339 | 4 | 13 |
| Meche, Gil | KC | AL | SP | 380 | .342 | 4 | 13 |
| Aardsma, David | SEA | AL | RP | 140 | .410 | 10 | 13 |
| Rivera, Juan | LAA | AL | LF | 251 | .367 | 7 | 13 |
| Nathan, Joe | MIN | AL | RP | 107 | .442 | 11 | 13 |
| Konerko, Paul | CHA | AL | 1B | 283 | .360 | 6 | 13 |
| Granderson, Curtis | DET | AL | CF | 322 | .353 | 5 | 13 |
| Howell, J.P. | TB | AL | RP | 143 | .403 | 9 | 12 |
| Downs, Scott | TOR | AL | RP | 108 | .435 | 10 | 12 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYA | AL | 2B | 307 | .354 | 5 | 12 |
| Wuertz, Mike | OAK | AL | RP | 129 | .411 | 9 | 12 |
| Baker, Scott S | MIN | AL | SP | 353 | .342 | 4 | 12 |
| Mazzaro, Vince M | OAK | AL | SP | 126 | .412 | 9 | 12 |
| Danks, John W | CHA | AL | SP | 346 | .342 | 4 | 12 |
| Holliday, Matt T | OAK | AL | LF | 300 | .353 | 5 | 12 |
| Ramirez, Ramon | BOS | AL | RP | 128 | .409 | 9 | 12 |
| White, Sean A | SEA | AL | RP | 149 | .393 | 8 | 12 |
| Bergesen, Bradley S | BAL | AL | SP | 322 | .345 | 4 | 12 |
| Guerrier, Matt O | MIN | AL | RP | 129 | .400 | 8 | 11 |
| Carrasco, D.J. | CHA | AL | RP | 201 | .364 | 6 | 11 |
| Hafner, Travis | CLE | AL | DH | 111 | .419 | 8 | 11 |
| DeRosa, Mark | CLE | AL | 3B | 310 | .347 | 3 | 11 |
| Napoli, Mike A | LAA | AL | C | 195 | .370 | 6 | 11 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYA | AL | 3B | 185 | .373 | 6 | 11 |
| Wakefield, Tim | BOS | AL | SP | 390 | .333 | 1 | 10 |
| Okajima, Hideki | BOS | AL | RP | 129 | .392 | 7 | 10 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYA | AL | C | 176 | .373 | 6 | 10 |
| Lester, Jon T | BOS | AL | SP | 392 | .332 | 1 | 10 |
| Morales, Kendry | LAA | AL | 1B | 268 | .350 | 4 | 10 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYA | AL | DH | 232 | .356 | 4 | 10 |
| Baez, Danys | BAL | AL | RP | 154 | .376 | 6 | 10 |
| Padilla, Vicente | TEX | AL | SP | 344 | .335 | 2 | 10 |
| Callaspo, Alberto | KC | AL | 2B | 262 | .350 | 4 | 10 |
| Aybar, Willy | TB | AL | 2B | 160 | .376 | 6 | 10 |
| Kennedy, Adam | OAK | AL | 2B | 193 | .363 | 5 | 9 |
| Uehara, Koji | BAL | AL | SP | 279 | .341 | 3 | 9 |
| Span, Denard D | MIN | AL | LF | 269 | .347 | 3 | 9 |
| Pedroia, Dustin L | BOS | AL | 2B | 321 | .340 | 2 | 9 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | AL | RP | 132 | .382 | 6 | 9 |
| Teahen, Mark T | KC | AL | 3B | 276 | .345 | 3 | 9 |
| Palmer, Matt | LAA | AL | SP | 264 | .342 | 3 | 9 |
| Coke, Phil | NYA | AL | RP | 126 | .381 | 6 | 9 |
| Jones, Andruw | TEX | AL | DH | 151 | .373 | 5 | 9 |
| Cabrera, Asdrubal J | CLE | AL | 2B | 231 | .350 | 3 | 8 |
| Johnson, Jim | BAL | AL | RP | 147 | .368 | 5 | 8 |
| Porcello, Rick A | DET | AL | SP | 330 | .331 | 1 | 8 |
| Thornton, Matt J | CHA | AL | RP | 114 | .384 | 6 | 8 |
| Lowell, Mike | BOS | AL | 3B | 281 | .340 | 2 | 8 |
| Masterson, Justin | BOS | AL | RP | 253 | .339 | 2 | 8 |
| Butler, Billy R | KC | AL | 1B | 277 | .340 | 1 | 8 |
| Gross, Gabe J | TB | AL | RF | 152 | .366 | 4 | 8 |
| Vargas, Jason M | SEA | AL | SP | 207 | .346 | 3 | 8 |
| Rivera, Mariano | NYA | AL | RP | 118 | .377 | 5 | 8 |
| Cahill, Trevor | OAK | AL | SP | 364 | .327 | -1 | 8 |
| Huff, Aubrey | BAL | AL | 1B | 294 | .337 | 1 | 8 |
| Dickey, R.A. | MIN | AL | RP | 177 | .352 | 4 | 8 |
| Reimold, Nolan | BAL | AL | LF | 130 | .374 | 5 | 8 |
| Sherrill, George F | BAL | AL | RP | 116 | .377 | 5 | 8 |
| Varitek, Jason | BOS | AL | C | 221 | .346 | 2 | 7 |
| Papelbon, Jonathan R | BOS | AL | RP | 137 | .364 | 4 | 7 |
| Jakubauskas, Chris | SEA | AL | RP | 249 | .335 | 1 | 7 |
| Lyon, Brandon | DET | AL | RP | 152 | .356 | 4 | 7 |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | BOS | AL | CF | 303 | .334 | 0 | 7 |
| Perkins, Glen W | MIN | AL | SP | 255 | .333 | 1 | 7 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYA | AL | CF | 223 | .341 | 1 | 7 |
| Contreras, Jose | CHA | AL | SP | 228 | .335 | 1 | 6 |
| Iwamura, Akinori | TB | AL | 2B | 176 | .348 | 2 | 6 |
| Rios, Alex I | TOR | AL | RF | 332 | .328 | -2 | 6 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | AL | SP | 330 | .324 | -1 | 6 |
| Rodney, Fernando | DET | AL | RP | 130 | .356 | 3 | 6 |
| Jenks, Bobby | CHA | AL | RP | 112 | .364 | 3 | 6 |
| Lowe, Mark | SEA | AL | RP | 153 | .346 | 2 | 6 |
| Balfour, Grant | TB | AL | RP | 148 | .347 | 2 | 6 |
| Pierzynski, A.J. | CHA | AL | C | 230 | .335 | 0 | 6 |
| Speier, Justin | LAA | AL | RP | 117 | .356 | 3 | 5 |
| Blalock, Hank | TEX | AL | DH | 220 | .335 | 0 | 5 |
| Burnett, A.J. | NYA | AL | SP | 378 | .319 | -3 | 5 |
| Guillen, Jose | KC | AL | RF | 232 | .333 | 0 | 5 |
| Batista, Miguel | SEA | AL | RP | 165 | .339 | 1 | 5 |
| Delcarmen, Manny | BOS | AL | RP | 128 | .349 | 2 | 5 |
| Green, Nick | BOS | AL | SS | 184 | .339 | 1 | 5 |
| Podsednik, Scott | CHA | AL | LF | 216 | .334 | 0 | 5 |
| Kapler, Gabe | TB | AL | RF | 113 | .356 | 2 | 5 |
| Gonzalez, Edgar | OAK | AL | RP | 105 | .355 | 2 | 5 |
| Crede, Joe | MIN | AL | 3B | 225 | .332 | 0 | 5 |
| Swarzak, Anthony | MIN | AL | SP | 119 | .349 | 2 | 5 |
| Giambi, Jason | OAK | AL | 1B | 273 | .327 | -2 | 5 |
| Hochevar, Luke | KC | AL | SP | 164 | .335 | 1 | 5 |
| Griffey Jr., Ken | SEA | AL | DH | 221 | .331 | -1 | 5 |
| Niemann, Jeff | TB | AL | SP | 315 | .319 | -3 | 5 |
| Carlson, Jesse C | TOR | AL | RP | 155 | .336 | 1 | 4 |
| Laffey, Aaron S | CLE | AL | RP | 145 | .338 | 1 | 4 |
| Wilson, C.J. | TEX | AL | RP | 131 | .341 | 1 | 4 |
| Quentin, Carlos J | CHA | AL | LF | 151 | .340 | 1 | 4 |
| Saito, Takashi | BOS | AL | RP | 115 | .345 | 2 | 4 |
| Byrd, Marlon | TEX | AL | CF | 244 | .327 | -1 | 4 |
| Dotel, Octavio | CHA | AL | RP | 132 | .339 | 1 | 4 |
| Garko, Ryan F | CLE | AL | 1B | 184 | .333 | 0 | 4 |
| Harris, Brendan | MIN | AL | SS | 232 | .328 | -1 | 4 |
| Bautista, Jose A | TOR | AL | LF | 141 | .340 | 1 | 4 |
| Slowey, Kevin | MIN | AL | SP | 362 | .315 | -5 | 4 |
| Jennings, Jason | TEX | AL | RP | 172 | .328 | 0 | 4 |
| Bulger, Jason P | LAA | AL | RP | 128 | .336 | 1 | 4 |
| Lugo, Julio | BOS | AL | SS | 104 | .348 | 1 | 4 |
| Olson, Garrett | SEA | AL | RP | 183 | .325 | -1 | 4 |
| Fuentes, Brian | LAA | AL | RP | 106 | .342 | 1 | 4 |
| Betancourt, Rafael | CLE | AL | RP | 114 | .339 | 1 | 4 |
| Oliver, Darren | LAA | AL | RP | 131 | .334 | 1 | 4 |
| Carroll, Jamey | CLE | AL | 2B | 130 | .338 | 0 | 3 |
| McCarthy, Brandon P | TEX | AL | SP | 281 | .316 | -3 | 3 |
| Cust, Jack | OAK | AL | DH | 281 | .321 | -3 | 3 |
| Hughes, Phil | NYA | AL | RP | 197 | .321 | -1 | 3 |
| Pettitte, Andy | NYA | AL | SP | 403 | .311 | -6 | 3 |
| Arredondo, Jose J | LAA | AL | RP | 110 | .335 | 1 | 3 |
| Murphy, David M | TEX | AL | LF | 182 | .326 | -1 | 3 |
| Olivo, Miguel | KC | AL | C | 178 | .326 | -1 | 3 |
| League, Brandon P | TOR | AL | RP | 140 | .326 | 0 | 3 |
| Camp, Shawn A | TOR | AL | RP | 139 | .326 | 0 | 3 |
| Sizemore, Grady | CLE | AL | CF | 245 | .320 | -3 | 3 |
| Ray, Robert A | TOR | AL | SP | 101 | .333 | 0 | 3 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYA | AL | CF | 170 | .325 | -1 | 3 |
| Jacobs, Mike | KC | AL | DH | 246 | .320 | -3 | 3 |
| Santiago, Ramon | DET | AL | SS | 127 | .331 | 0 | 3 |
| Ordonez, Magglio | DET | AL | RF | 253 | .319 | -3 | 3 |
| Albers, Matt J | BAL | AL | RP | 127 | .326 | 0 | 3 |
| Suzuki, Kurt K | OAK | AL | C | 266 | .318 | -4 | 2 |
| Cruz, Juan | KC | AL | RP | 122 | .326 | 0 | 2 |
| Perry, Ryan | DET | AL | RP | 124 | .325 | 0 | 2 |
| Romero, Ricky | TOR | AL | SP | 243 | .313 | -3 | 2 |
| Ziegler, Brad G | OAK | AL | RP | 140 | .321 | -1 | 2 |
| Zumaya, Joel M | DET | AL | RP | 110 | .325 | 0 | 2 |
| Miner, Zach C | DET | AL | RP | 198 | .314 | -3 | 2 |
| Peralta, Jhonny | CLE | AL | SS | 277 | .315 | -5 | 2 |
| Sweeney, Mike | SEA | AL | DH | 118 | .325 | -1 | 2 |
| Linebrink, Scott | CHA | AL | RP | 122 | .318 | -1 | 2 |
| Casilla, Santiago | OAK | AL | RP | 111 | .318 | -1 | 1 |
| Nelson, Joe | TB | AL | RP | 139 | .314 | -2 | 1 |
| Crisp, Coco | KC | AL | CF | 215 | .315 | -4 | 1 |
| Thomas, Clete | DET | AL | RF | 127 | .319 | -2 | 1 |
| Wells, Vernon | TOR | AL | CF | 332 | .312 | -6 | 1 |
| Hill, Rich | BAL | AL | SP | 168 | .311 | -3 | 1 |
| Burrell, Pat | TB | AL | DH | 161 | .316 | -3 | 1 |
| Shoppach, Kelly B | CLE | AL | C | 170 | .315 | -3 | 1 |
| Berken, Jason T | BAL | AL | SP | 144 | .311 | -2 | 1 |
| Hamilton, Josh H | TEX | AL | CF | 138 | .316 | -2 | 1 |
| Gutierrez, Franklin R | SEA | AL | CF | 250 | .312 | -5 | 1 |
| Zaun, Gregg | BAL | AL | C | 156 | .314 | -3 | 1 |
| Bass, Brian M | BAL | AL | RP | 198 | .307 | -4 | 1 |
| Millar, Kevin | TOR | AL | 1B | 148 | .313 | -3 | 1 |
| Guthrie, Jeremy | BAL | AL | SP | 379 | .305 | -8 | 1 |
| Veras, Jose | NYA | AL | RP | 118 | .307 | -2 | 0 |
| Davies, Kyle K | KC | AL | SP | 348 | .304 | -8 | 0 |
| Price, David T | TB | AL | SP | 142 | .305 | -3 | 0 |
| Richard, Clayton C | CHA | AL | RP | 278 | .304 | -6 | 0 |
| Barajas, Rod | TOR | AL | C | 232 | .308 | -5 | 0 |
| Ramirez, Alexei | CHA | AL | SS | 284 | .308 | -6 | 0 |
| Robertson, Nate | DET | AL | RP | 102 | .302 | -2 | 0 |
| Huff, David G | CLE | AL | SP | 181 | .302 | -4 | 0 |
| Morrow, Brandon J | SEA | AL | RP | 143 | .302 | -3 | 0 |
| Izturis, Maicer E | LAA | AL | 2B | 166 | .306 | -4 | 0 |
| Sowers, Jeremy B | CLE | AL | SP | 179 | .301 | -4 | 0 |
| Upton, B.J. | TB | AL | CF | 311 | .306 | -8 | 0 |
| Maier, Mitch W | KC | AL | CF | 114 | .304 | -3 | 0 |
| Wigginton, Ty | BAL | AL | 3B | 191 | .305 | -5 | 0 |
| Pavano, Carl | CLE | AL | SP | 372 | .301 | -9 | 0 |
| Polanco, Placido | DET | AL | 2B | 285 | .305 | -7 | 0 |
| Reyes, Anthony L | CLE | AL | SP | 176 | .299 | -5 | 0 |
| Ortiz, David | BOS | AL | DH | 275 | .305 | -7 | -1 |
| Bloomquist, Willie | KC | AL | SS | 182 | .304 | -5 | -1 |
| Buscher, Brian | MIN | AL | 3B | 106 | .301 | -3 | -1 |
| Wright, Jamey | KC | AL | RP | 145 | .297 | -4 | -1 |
| Ayala, Luis | MIN | AL | RP | 138 | .297 | -4 | -1 |
| Penny, Brad | BOS | AL | SP | 346 | .300 | -9 | -1 |
| DeJesus, David | KC | AL | LF | 283 | .303 | -8 | -1 |
| Valbuena, Luis A | CLE | AL | 2B | 130 | .298 | -4 | -1 |
| Mora, Melvin | BAL | AL | 3B | 214 | .301 | -6 | -1 |
| Snider, Travis J | TOR | AL | LF | 108 | .295 | -4 | -1 |
| Colon, Bartolo | CHA | AL | SP | 249 | .297 | -7 | -1 |
| Andrus, Elvis | TEX | AL | SS | 214 | .300 | -6 | -1 |
| Wood, Kerry | CLE | AL | RP | 113 | .289 | -4 | -1 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | LAA | AL | DH | 143 | .296 | -5 | -1 |
| Lewis, Jensen D | CLE | AL | RP | 164 | .292 | -5 | -2 |
| Ramirez, Horacio | KC | AL | RP | 104 | .285 | -4 | -2 |
| Holland, Derek | TEX | AL | RP | 191 | .293 | -6 | -2 |
| Anderson, Brian N | CHA | AL | CF | 175 | .297 | -6 | -2 |
| Davis, Chris | TEX | AL | 1B | 248 | .300 | -7 | -2 |
| Ponson, Sidney | KC | AL | RP | 202 | .292 | -6 | -2 |
| Saltalamacchia, Jarrod S | TEX | AL | C | 209 | .297 | -7 | -2 |
| Davis, Rajai | OAK | AL | CF | 110 | .287 | -4 | -2 |
| Balentien, Wladimir R | SEA | AL | LF | 143 | .291 | -5 | -2 |
| Loux, Shane | LAA | AL | SP | 174 | .289 | -6 | -2 |
| Chavez, Endy | SEA | AL | LF | 182 | .294 | -6 | -2 |
| Liriano, Francisco | MIN | AL | SP | 371 | .296 | -11 | -2 |
| Aybar, Erick J | LAA | AL | SS | 211 | .295 | -7 | -2 |
| Fields, Josh | CHA | AL | 3B | 227 | .296 | -8 | -2 |
| Lackey, John | LAA | AL | SP | 211 | .290 | -7 | -2 |
| Beltre, Adrian | SEA | AL | 3B | 300 | .298 | -9 | -2 |
| Pie, Felix | BAL | AL | LF | 110 | .280 | -5 | -3 |
| Laird, Gerald | DET | AL | C | 218 | .293 | -8 | -3 |
| Everett, Adam | DET | AL | SS | 185 | .290 | -7 | -3 |
| Anderson, Brett F | OAK | AL | SP | 307 | .292 | -10 | -3 |
| Francisco, Ben B | CLE | AL | LF | 260 | .294 | -9 | -3 |
| Purcey, David K | TOR | AL | SP | 120 | .273 | -6 | -3 |
| Springer, Russ | OAK | AL | RP | 124 | .274 | -6 | -3 |
| Willis, Dontrelle | DET | AL | SP | 160 | .280 | -7 | -3 |
| Sweeney, Ryan J | OAK | AL | CF | 233 | .289 | -9 | -4 |
| Anderson, Josh | DET | AL | LF | 141 | .275 | -7 | -4 |
| Mahay, Ron | KC | AL | RP | 116 | .262 | -7 | -4 |
| Lopez, Jose C | SEA | AL | 2B | 267 | .289 | -10 | -4 |
| Hendrickson, Mark | BAL | AL | RP | 215 | .278 | -9 | -4 |
| Izturis, Cesar | BAL | AL | SS | 159 | .274 | -8 | -5 |
| Getz, Chris | CHA | AL | 2B | 216 | .283 | -10 | -5 |
| Andino, Robert L | BAL | AL | SS | 110 | .259 | -7 | -5 |
| Carmona, Fausto C | CLE | AL | SP | 291 | .284 | -11 | -5 |
| Kendrick, Howie | LAA | AL | 2B | 201 | .279 | -10 | -5 |
| Matthews Jr., Gary | LAA | AL | RF | 151 | .269 | -9 | -5 |
| Gomez, Carlos A | MIN | AL | CF | 177 | .274 | -9 | -5 |
| Mathis, Jeff | LAA | AL | C | 122 | .258 | -8 | -5 |
| Hannahan, Jack | OAK | AL | 3B | 129 | .260 | -8 | -5 |
| Sonnanstine, Andy | TB | AL | SP | 362 | .286 | -14 | -5 |
| Crosby, Bobby | OAK | AL | 1B | 173 | .271 | -9 | -5 |
| Harrison, Matt | TEX | AL | SP | 283 | .279 | -12 | -6 |
| Silva, Carlos | SEA | AL | SP | 132 | .251 | -9 | -6 |
| Eveland, Dana J | OAK | AL | SP | 127 | .249 | -9 | -6 |
| Guillen, Carlos | DET | AL | LF | 101 | .238 | -8 | -6 |
| Young, Delmon D | MIN | AL | LF | 180 | .264 | -11 | -7 |
| Cecil, Brett | TOR | AL | SP | 151 | .251 | -10 | -7 |
| Santana, Ervin R | LAA | AL | SP | 150 | .251 | -10 | -7 |
| Perez, Rafael E | CLE | AL | RP | 109 | .230 | -9 | -7 |
| Janssen, Casey C | TOR | AL | SP | 123 | .236 | -10 | -7 |
| Punto, Nick | MIN | AL | SS | 180 | .261 | -11 | -7 |
| Kazmir, Scott E | TB | AL | SP | 224 | .264 | -13 | -7 |
| Johnson, Rob | SEA | AL | C | 128 | .240 | -10 | -8 |
| Benson, Kris | TEX | AL | RP | 114 | .225 | -10 | -8 |
| Tolbert, Matt | MIN | AL | 2B | 129 | .232 | -11 | -8 |
| Galarraga, Armando | DET | AL | SP | 355 | .274 | -17 | -9 |
| Eaton, Adam | BAL | AL | SP | 194 | .247 | -14 | -9 |
| Casilla, Alexi | MIN | AL | 2B | 121 | .216 | -12 | -10 |
| Cedeno, Ronny | SEA | AL | 2B | 101 | .193 | -12 | -10 |
| Betancourt, Yuniesky | SEA | AL | SS | 245 | .260 | -16 | -10 |
| Cabrera, Orlando | OAK | AL | SS | 312 | .267 | -18 | -11 |
| Aviles, Mike A | KC | AL | SS | 127 | .200 | -15 | -12 |
| Navarro, Dioner F | TB | AL | C | 228 | .236 | -19 | -14 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | AL | SP | 162 | .201 | -18 | -14 |
| Matsuzaka, Daisuke | BOS | AL | SP | 177 | .198 | -20 | -16 |
Congratulations are in order to Chien-Ming Wang, as I've finally found a metric that doesn't have him as the least valuable player in the AL.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
2009 Projection Checkpoint Through Games of June 25 - Pitching
Following up on Last week's post about their projections, here's a look at the pitching. I'm only going to look at player's who've pitched at least 20 innings in the majors for now.One thing that needs to be noted is that no one knew how New Yankee Stadium would play, so we don't know what the park factor impact was to the projections. So make a mental note of that at the very least when looking at the numbers that follow. If the projections seem too optimistic, it's likely that the park factor is at least part of it. Projections are pro-rated to actual YTD playing time, so pay special attention to HRs since that has been the biggest issue in NYS.
C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia was the Yankees' big free agent target and acquisition this off-season. Has he been worth it so far?
| C.C. Sabathia | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 102 | 99 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 21 | 89 | 3.41 | 3.23 | 12 | 25 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 102 | 94 | 39 | 35 | 9 | 24 | 96 | 3.07 | 3.13 | 16 | 29 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 102 | 98 | 43 | 39 | 10 | 23 | 89 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 12 | 25 |
| 2009 tht projection | 102 | 94 | 40 | 37 | 10 | 21 | 90 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 14 | 27 |
| 2009 zips projection | 102 | 98 | 38 | 35 | 10 | 21 | 93 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 16 | 29 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 102 | 99 | 44 | 39 | 9 | 27 | 89 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 12 | 24 |
| 2009 average projection | 102 | 97 | 41 | 37 | 9 | 23 | 91 | 3.29 | 3.28 | 14 | 27 |
| 2009 YTD | 102 | 85 | 45 | 42 | 8 | 31 | 70 | 3.71 | 3.76 | 9 | 22 |
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement
C.C.'s been a little worse than expected to this point. Interestingly, he's actually allowed fewer homers than any of the projections expected despite the homerrificness of NYS. The bigger issue is the BB rate is higher and the K rate is lower. He's giving up fewer hits than projected, as well. Still, he has an established track record of excellence and is(HOPEFULLY) healthy, so we should see him improve a little as the season goes on.
A.J. Burnett
It's funny with Burnett. A lot of Yankee bloggers and most analysts hated his signing at the time. I didn't hate it, I thought it was risky but could pay off. However, the reason everyone hated it was because Burnett was supposedly an injury risk. Not one analyst said that Burnett wouldn't pitch well when he could pitch, they just thought he wouldn't pitch enough (please correct me on this if I missed anyone). Now that Burnett's been healthy and pitching erratically, many of those same analysts are alluding that the reason they didn't like the Burnett signing was because they knew he would be erratic, not because of the health risk. I call BS.
| A.J. Burnett | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 87 | 83 | 41 | 38 | 8 | 33 | 85 | 3.88 | 3.61 | 6 | 17 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 87 | 81 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 33 | 84 | 3.99 | 3.72 | 5 | 16 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 87 | 83 | 40 | 37 | 8 | 32 | 79 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 7 | 17 |
| 2009 tht projection | 87 | 81 | 40 | 37 | 9 | 32 | 81 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 6 | 17 |
| 2009 zips projection | 87 | 84 | 41 | 38 | 10 | 32 | 83 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 5 | 16 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 87 | 83 | 43 | 39 | 9 | 26 | 82 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 4 | 15 |
| 2009 average projection | 87 | 82 | 41 | 38 | 9 | 31 | 82 | 3.93 | 3.71 | 5 | 16 |
| 2009 YTD | 87 | 81 | 44 | 41 | 13 | 44 | 82 | 4.24 | 4.77 | 3 | 13 |
Burnett hasn't been particularly good so far, due to giving up four more HRs and 13 more BBs than his average projection expected over the 87 innings he's pitched. While his ERA of 4.24 is respectable, it belies a FIP of 4.77 which is a non-trivial concern going forward. While it's still too early to judge his contract only 8% of the way through it, the nay-sayers appear to have been right so far. I still think(hope) A.J. can turn it around.
Andy Pettitte
Pettitte's been one pitcher who's really struggled in NYS (Opponents are hitting .332/.392/.500 against him at home, compared to .207/.277/.329 on the road). Interestingly, his combined stats are very much in-line with how he was projected.
| Andy Pettitte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 87 | 96 | 45 | 42 | 8 | 28 | 65 | 4.31 | 3.84 | 2 | 13 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 87 | 98 | 46 | 42 | 9 | 27 | 63 | 4.38 | 3.99 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 87 | 96 | 47 | 42 | 9 | 27 | 61 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 tht projection | 87 | 95 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 26 | 60 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 2 | 13 |
| 2009 zips projection | 87 | 97 | 46 | 43 | 8 | 27 | 61 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 87 | 96 | 47 | 43 | 9 | 26 | 62 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 1 | 11 |
| 2009 average projection | 87 | 96 | 46 | 42 | 8 | 27 | 62 | 4.37 | 3.98 | 1 | 12 |
| 2009 YTD | 87 | 96 | 44 | 41 | 11 | 33 | 57 | 4.26 | 4.68 | 2 | 13 |
Pettitte's not pretty to watch, but despite his ugly peripherals he's a touch above average in terms of run prevention and gives the team innings. It would be nice if he could get his home performance to match his road performance a little more closely though.
Joba Chamberlain
| Joba Chamberlain | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 76 | 66 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 29 | 84 | 3.39 | 3.30 | 9 | 19 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 76 | 67 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 28 | 78 | 3.07 | 3.14 | 12 | 21 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 76 | 65 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 29 | 81 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 12 | 21 |
| 2009 tht projection | 76 | 62 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 30 | 84 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 11 | 20 |
| 2009 zips projection | 76 | 73 | 34 | 32 | 7 | 30 | 74 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 6 | 16 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 76 | 72 | 31 | 29 | 7 | 26 | 77 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 9 | 18 |
| 2009 average projection | 76 | 68 | 30 | 28 | 6 | 28 | 80 | 3.33 | 3.27 | 10 | 19 |
| 2009 YTD | 76 | 70 | 36 | 32 | 8 | 37 | 69 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 6 | 15 |
Despite the Yankees' foolish insistence on using a reliever in the starting rotation, Joba's been the Yankees' second most valuable starter. That his season line seems disappointing is more a testament to how well he has done the past two seasons than any real disappointment in his current performance. He's walking a few more batters and striking out a few less batters than expected, but part of that is the fact that his projections include his relief stats, which are going to boost his projections slightly since relieving is easier than starting. As long as we remember that he's 23 and still working his way up to building the stamina to become a full-time starter, we should be encouraged by his performance to date. He's already pitched 76 innings, something that would take him a whole season to do as a reliever.
Phil Hughes
I think some people forget that Hughes is nine months younger than Joba. While his MLB time has been mixed, he's looked pretty good this year. I was at the game versus the Braves on Tuesday and the Braves fans were oohing and aahing when Hughes hit 96 on his fastball several times. The myth of his 'only 91 mph fastball' should be silenced now. A healthy Hughes has the stuff that made him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Now he's hitting 96 in relief, which means he's probably going to lose some of that velocity when he moves back to the rotation, but he should still maintain enough to be effective.
| Phil Hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 45 | 46 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 4.28 | 4.10 | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 45 | 45 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 17 | 35 | 4.61 | 4.19 | -1 | 5 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 45 | 47 | 26 | 24 | 5 | 18 | 36 | 4.74 | 4.27 | -1 | 4 |
| 2009 tht projection | 45 | 44 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 35 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 zips projection | 45 | 47 | 23 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 45 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 0 | 5 |
| 2009 average projection | 45 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 17 | 35 | 4.45 | 4.10 | 0 | 6 |
| 2009 YTD | 45 | 42 | 24 | 23 | 7 | 17 | 45 | 4.57 | 4.35 | 0 | 5 |
As you can see Hughes is pitching around where his projections expected, although with a higher K rate. In general, a starter moved to relief will see his K rate increase by about 16%, so that explains part of the higher K rate. Still, Hughes is finally flashing the talent that made him famous. I'd still like to see him starting again, either in the majors or in AAA, because I think he needs to build his innings up.
Chien-Ming Wang
Hide the women and the kids, because what you are about to see is explicit.
| Chien-Ming Wang | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 31 | 37 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 4.47 | 3.86 | 0 | 4 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 31 | 31 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 3.83 | 3.89 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 31 | 35 | 17 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 0 | 4 |
| 2009 tht projection | 31 | 34 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 zips projection | 31 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 31 | 33 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 1 | 5 |
| 2009 average projection | 31 | 34 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 4.11 | 3.98 | 1 | 5 |
| 2009 YTD | 31 | 56 | 40 | 39 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 11.21 | 5.53 | -23 | -19 |
If Wang can pitch 120 more innings at his average projected ERA of 4.11, he'll end the season with 151 innings and a 5.89 ERA. In the entire history of the Yankees, there have only been three pitchers to pitch at least 140 innings with an ERA of 5.5 or higher:
David Cone in 2000 (6.91 ERA in 155 IP).
Jeff Weaver in 2003 (5.99 ERA in 159.1 IP).
Kenny Rogers in 1997 (5.65 ERA in 145 IP).
The good news is Wang has been a little better lately and may be able to pitch closer to his projections over the rest of the season. Also, this may make Wang cheaper in arbitration next year. The bad news is there's very little chance of Wang salvaging this season and finishing with respectable numbers, although that doesn't really matter going forward.
Phil Coke
Coke impressed in 2008, but prior to that his minor league numbers werent' all that good, as reflected in his projections.
| Phil Coke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 4.25 | 3.96 | 1 | 5 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 30 | 28 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 30 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 4.99 | 4.43 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 tht projection | 30 | 34 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 5.44 | 5.33 | -3 | 1 |
| 2009 zips projection | 30 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 4.91 | 4.72 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 30 | 39 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 5.82 | 4.33 | -4 | -1 |
| 2009 average projection | 30 | 33 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 4.89 | 4.44 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 YTD | 30 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 3.56 | 5.08 | 3 | 7 |
Now a lot of the input into his projections were based on Coke being a starter. If you convert his average projection to a relief equivalent, you get a revised line of:
| IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 30 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 3.89 | 4.20 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
The starter->relief conversion that I use assumes:
H: 0.87
R/ER: 0.79
HR: .95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.16
So what those mean is, for example, if a pitcher is projected to give up 100 hits as a starter, he should give 0.87 times 100 = 87 hits as a reliever.
He's given up fewer hits than the relief conversion would have expected, and more HRs, but the BB rate and K rate are reasonably close. While his ERA is good, his peripherals are a warning that he hasn't pitched as well as the ERA shows. I have no idea whether we should expect his peripherals to improve to match his ERA, or if we should expect him to pitch closer to his FIP going forward.
Alfredo Aceves
In a season where almost every member of the bullpen has disappointed, AA is an oasis in a desert of suck. Aceves was projected as a starter, where he was expected to be slightly worse than average, but solidly above replacement level.
| Alfredo Aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 31 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 4.95 | 4.87 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 31 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 3.86 | 4.34 | 2 | 6 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 31 | 35 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 5.03 | 4.84 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 tht projection | 31 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 4.95 | 4.87 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 zips projection | 31 | 36 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 5.19 | 5.18 | -2 | 1 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 31 | 32 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 4.83 | 4.37 | -1 | 3 |
| 2009 average projection | 31 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 4.80 | 4.75 | -1 | 3 |
| 2009 YTD | 31 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 2.32 | 3.72 | 8 | 11 |
Same deal as with Coke, if we convert his projection to a relief equivalent, we get an improved line of:
| IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 31 | 30 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 3.89 | 4.20 | 2.1 | 5.2 |
FIP expects him to pitch closer to an ERA in the mid 3s going forward, looking at both his YTD performance and his revised projection, but he should still be a solid asset in the pen going forward.
Jose Veras
| jose veras | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 26 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 4.05 | 3.80 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 26 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 4.09 | 4.22 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 26 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 tht projection | 26 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 2 | 5 |
| 2009 zips projection | 26 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 26 | 27 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 0 | 3 |
| 2009 average projection | 26 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 YTD | 26 | 23 | 17 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 5.95 | 5.96 | -4 | -1 |
While Veras had a good season last year, he slumped later in the year, and his command was always a major concern. Veras's command was horrible this year and it's reflected in his results. He's been traded to Cleveland for cash considerations.
Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo was expected to be a decent back-end relief option although his projections weren't really all that good.
| jonathan albaladejo | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 21 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 4.75 | 4.67 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 21 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 4.09 | 3.90 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 21 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 0 | 2 |
| 2009 tht projection | 21 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 1 | 4 |
| 2009 zips projection | 21 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 4.87 | 4.87 | -1 | 2 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 21 | 24 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 5.29 | 4.67 | -2 | 1 |
| 2009 average projection | 21 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 4.60 | 4.51 | 0 | 2 |
| 2009 YTD | 21 | 24 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 6.00 | 6.58 | -4 | -1 |
He essentially matched Veras's output though, with a few less walks and Ks. He's doing well back in Scranton/WB and may end up getting another chance this year.
Mariano F'ing Rivera
Mo's early season velocity wasn't very good as he was building up arm strength after off-season surgery. Seeing his cutter at 88-89 mph was alarming, as was seeing batters hit .306/.306/.551 against him over his first 12 games. His velocity's been better lately and over his last 16 games he's looked more like Mo, with a 2.55 ERA and with hitters hitting .185/.221/.292 against him.
| Mariano Rivera | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 29 | 26 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 2.86 | 2.64 | 5 | 9 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 29 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 3.09 | 3.08 | 5 | 8 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 29 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 7 | 10 |
| 2009 tht projection | 29 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 6 | 10 |
| 2009 zips projection | 29 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 7 | 11 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 29 | 23 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 7 | 10 |
| 2009 average projection | 29 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 2.59 | 2.61 | 6 | 10 |
| 2009 YTD | 29 | 27 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 5 | 8 |
A lot has been made of Mo's high K rate, and his K/9 of 11.5 is 37% higher than his projected 8.4. Even if you instead look at the more accurate Ks per batters faced, you can see that Mo has fanned 31.6% of the batters he's faced, compared to his projected 23%. That's 37% higher. So we should be comfortable that Mo will be fine going forward, although there will almost certainly be at least one more WWWMW along the way.
Team
Here are the cumulative totals for the players above:
| Total | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 565 | 565 | 267 | 247 | 54 | 185 | 495 | 3.93 | 3.68 | 36.0 | 106.6 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 565 | 544 | 256 | 236 | 51 | 187 | 483 | 3.75 | 3.66 | 46.9 | 117.5 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 565 | 563 | 270 | 247 | 54 | 187 | 472 | 3.93 | 3.76 | 35.9 | 106.6 |
| 2009 tht projection | 565 | 545 | 260 | 241 | 56 | 188 | 474 | 3.84 | 3.81 | 41.5 | 112.1 |
| 2009 zips projection | 565 | 574 | 268 | 248 | 56 | 184 | 462 | 3.95 | 3.82 | 34.4 | 105.0 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 565 | 574 | 278 | 257 | 56 | 163 | 456 | 4.10 | 3.75 | 25.4 | 96.0 |
| 2009 average projection | 565 | 561 | 267 | 246 | 55 | 182 | 474 | 3.92 | 3.75 | 36.7 | 107.3 |
| 2009 YTD | 565 | 549 | 300 | 279 | 77 | 222 | 464 | 4.44 | 4.51 | 3.5 | 74.1 |
The staff as comprised above has allowed 22 more HRs than expected, while walking 40 more batters and fanning 10 fewer. They've been close to three wins worse than projected to this point. At 39-32 they're on a projected 89 win pace. If they had those 3 wins, they'd be 42-29 and on a 96 win pace.
Projecting pitching is a pain in the ass, because even if you nail the peripherals, ERA is subject to fluctuations that we can't predict. If we look at the RMSE(root mean square error) for each individual pitchers' ERA, the projection systems rank like this:
| Projection | rERA |
| chone | 0.78 |
| cairo | 0.80 |
| average | 0.81 |
| pecota | 0.81 |
| marcel | 0.83 |
| zips | 0.83 |
| tht | 0.86 |
If we want to instead look at how well the systems did in projecting the peripherals, we can look at the RMSE of FIP, and that looks like this:
| Projection | rFIP |
| cairo | 0.83 |
| pecota | 0.84 |
| average | 0.85 |
| tht | 0.85 |
| marcel | 0.85 |
| zips | 0.86 |
| chone | 0.87 |
And lastly, if we average ERA and FIP and then look at the RMSE of the average, we get this:
| Projection | r((ERA+FIP)/2) |
| cairo | 0.81 |
| pecota | 0.83 |
| chone | 0.83 |
| average | 0.83 |
| marcel | 0.84 |
| zips | 0.85 |
| tht | 0.86 |
We do have to consider the impact of NYS on these projections, and we do also have to remember there's still close to 60% of the season left to play and a lot can change. On the whole, we can see the pitching staff has been disappointing overall, but they have been better in June and can hopefully carry that going forward.
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Yankee Team Splits for June 2009 Through Games of June 23
The thing that sucks about going to see baseball live (aside from leaving the basement and seeing the scary sun) is that when your team is sucking, you can't switch the channel to watch The Deadliest Catch. Anyway, as most Yankee fans know, June has been a pretty ugly month. The Yankees entered June with a record of 29-21 and a half game lead in the AL East. They were averaging 5.4 runs per game offensively, although the pitching had been disappointing with an RA of 4.94 per game.In June they've only won nine of 20 games, and are scoring 4.7 runs per game. The pitching has been much improved, with an RA of 4.29, but the offense going MIA has been the big problem. They've lost 5.5 games in the standings, although they are still in the wild card lead (tied with Toronto) and 0.5 games ahead of Texas and LA of A.
Here are the team's June splits for offense, pitching and defense.
| Player | Split | G | PA | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | wOBA | Ratio |
| Derek Jeter | June | 18 | 78 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .286 | .359 | .400 | 11 | .338 | .950 |
| Robinson Cano | June | 20 | 84 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | .282 | .321 | .436 | 11 | .325 | .937 |
| Johnny Damon | June | 19 | 74 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | .219 | .324 | .469 | 10 | .337 | .911 |
| Nick Swisher | June | 19 | 73 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 | .267 | .397 | .500 | 12 | .381 | 1.037 |
| Mark Teixeira | June | 19 | 83 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | .286 | .398 | .557 | 15 | .384 | .968 |
| Jorge Posada | June | 17 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | .217 | .299 | .383 | 7 | .300 | .836 |
| Hideki Matsui | June | 19 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | .213 | .362 | .426 | 8 | .350 | .993 |
| Brett Gardner | June | 18 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 | .346 | .469 | .423 | 7 | .409 | 1.209 |
| Cody Ransom | June | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Melky Cabrera | June | 20 | 75 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .293 | .354 | 7 | .274 | .820 |
| Jose Molina | June | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Xavier Nady | June | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Ramiro Pena | June | 9 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .308 | .250 | 1 | .263 | .988 |
| Angel Berroa | June | 7 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .100 | .182 | .200 | 0 | .172 | 1.071 |
| Alex Rodriguez | June | 19 | 77 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 0 | .143 | .299 | .270 | 7 | .270 | .773 |
| Francisco Cervelli | June | 5 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .294 | .294 | .353 | 2 | .279 | 1.014 |
| Team | June | 209 | 742 | 155 | 34 | 1 | 25 | 92 | 104 | 19 | 1 | .241 | .341 | .414 | 97 | .328 | .939 |
PA: Plate appearances
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted or above/below average/replacement)
wOBA:: Weighted on base average
Ratio: wOIBA for the month divided by season wOBA (greater than one means player has performed better this month than overall)
| Player | Split | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG | RSAR |
| A.J. Burnett | June | 4 | 23.0 | 22 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 3.91 | 2.74 | 4.55 | 4.69 | 3.99 | 4 |
| Alfredo Aceves | June | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 4.70 | 3.53 | 3.27 | 5 |
| Andy Pettitte | June | 4 | 23.0 | 26 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 5.09 | 4.70 | 4.33 | 5.21 | 4.75 | 1 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Brett Tomko | June | 6 | 10.0 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7.20 | 7.20 | 6.50 | 5.74 | 6.48 | -2 |
| Brian Bruney | June | 2 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.70 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1 |
| CC Sabathia | June | 4 | 24.0 | 20 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 4.88 | 4.50 | 5.20 | 3.81 | 4.50 | 2 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | June | 4 | 17.3 | 24 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 7.79 | 7.27 | 4.82 | 6.54 | 6.21 | -4 |
| Damaso Marte | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| David Robertson | June | 8 | 8.3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 3.24 | 2.16 | 3.20 | 2.46 | 2.61 | 2 |
| Edwar Ramirez | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Joba Chamberlain | June | 4 | 24.0 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 18 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 4.12 | 2.89 | 3.59 | 5 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Jose Veras | June | 3 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 5.60 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 2 |
| Mariano Rivera | June | 7 | 7.0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6.43 | 5.14 | 2.06 | 2.67 | 3.29 | -1 |
| Mark Melancon | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Nick Swisher | June | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| Phil Coke | June | 10 | 9.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.98 | 1.16 | 1.38 | 5 |
| Phil Hughes | June | 6 | 10.7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 2.36 | 1.52 | 1.85 | 5 |
| Team | June | 70 | 174.0 | 151 | 83 | 75 | 22 | 68 | 162 | 4.29 | 3.88 | 4.27 | 3.89 | 4.02 | 26 |
FIP: FIP
CERA: Component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
AVG: Average of ERA,FIP and CERA
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher
| Player | Pos | G | INN | CH | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 18 | 151.0 | 26 | 24 | .921 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 18 | 143.0 | 52 | 42 | .807 | 41 | 1 | 1 |
| Swisher, Nick | 1B | 3 | 14.0 | 2 | 2 | 1.001 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | LF | 3 | 25.0 | 10 | 9 | .900 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Berroa, Angel | 3B | 4 | 21.0 | 6 | 5 | .832 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 12 | 87.7 | 22 | 20 | .908 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Posada, Jorge | 1B | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | 2B | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | RF | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ransom, Cody | 3B | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | 3B | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | SS | 6 | 32.0 | 10 | 8 | .800 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | RF | 15 | 120.0 | 32 | 28 | .876 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | RF | 11 | 45.0 | 6 | 5 | .836 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | LF | 1 | 8.0 | 4 | 3 | .751 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner, Brett | CF | 15 | 77.3 | 30 | 26 | .868 | 27 | -1 | -1 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 19 | 165.0 | 56 | 44 | .787 | 46 | -2 | -2 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 17 | 133.0 | 35 | 27 | .773 | 29 | -2 | -2 |
| Damon, Johnny | LF | 15 | 132.0 | 27 | 21 | .780 | 24 | -3 | -2 |
| Team | 158 | 1155 | 318 | 264 | .831 | 272 | -8 | -6 |
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Yankees.com: Yanks’ lineup offers no support for Wang
ATLANTA—Switching to a new National League entry proved to be no remedy for the slumbering Yankees bats, who continued their June swoon with a 4-0 loss to the Braves on Tuesday at Turner Field.
Much of the hand-wringing leading into the Interleague contest centered upon New York starter Chien-Ming Wang, who was lost for the season last June 15 when he injured his right foot running the bases—an injury which proved season-ending and perhaps career-altering.
Though Wang remained winless through his seventh start of the season, touched for three third-inning runs in an abbreviated 62-pitch outing, neither his pitching nor his running were the real issues, as the Yankees lost for the ninth time in 13 games. Once again, it was the offense, with Wang appearing in a cameo role to the lineup struggles.
In other news, a brilliant young sabermetrician was found after the game passed out drunk in a Turner Field bathroom wearing an Enrique Wilson jersey.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Yankee Run Values Through Games of JUne 15, 2009
I'll use the off day to run through the Yankees' context-neutral run values through Sunday's game. First up, the position players:| Name | Team | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAR | ZR RS | UZR RS | Avg RS | RAR |
| Jeter, Derek | NYA | SS | 284 | .310 | .378 | .463 | 21 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 22 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYA | 1B | 271 | .284 | .387 | .620 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 24 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYA | LF | 266 | .284 | .358 | .530 | 18 | 0 | -4 | -2 | 16 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYA | RF | 242 | .247 | .392 | .521 | 14 | -4 | -3 | -4 | 10 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYA | C | 145 | .288 | .372 | .568 | 13 | -4 | 1 | -2 | 11 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYA | 2B | 273 | .298 | .330 | .492 | 11 | -4 | -3 | -3 | 8 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYA | 3B | 153 | .230 | .386 | .500 | 10 | -3 | -4 | -3 | 6 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYA | DH | 216 | .257 | .352 | .492 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYA | CF | 198 | .294 | .344 | .444 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYA | CF | 149 | .276 | .354 | .386 | 5 | -1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Molina, Jose | NYA | C | 49 | .273 | .333 | .386 | 1 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYA | RF | 29 | .286 | .310 | .429 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | NYA | C | 62 | .298 | .310 | .333 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cash, Kevin | NYA | C | 28 | .231 | .250 | .308 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYA | 3B | 77 | .254 | .303 | .310 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -3 |
| Berroa, Angel | NYA | 3B | 18 | .125 | .176 | .125 | -3 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -5 |
| Ransom, Cody | NYA | 3B | 53 | .180 | .226 | .320 | -3 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -5 |
| Total | 2513 | .276 | .355 | .482 | 120 | -13 | -14 | -14 | 106 |
BRAR Batting runs above replacement level (position and park-adjusted) using linear weights
ZR RS: Runs saved above average (using zone rating)
UZR RS: Runs saved above average (using Fan Graphs' UZR(ultimate zone rating)
Avg RS: Average of ZR RS and UZR RS
RAR: Runs above replacement level (BRAR + Avg RS)
And the pitchers:
| Name | Team | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | RSAR |
| Sabathia, CC | NYA | SP | 93 | 76 | 7 | 29 | 67 | 3.97 | 3.77 | 15 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | NYA | RP | 26.7 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 2.70 | 3.99 | 8 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | SP | 63.3 | 56 | 7 | 33 | 58 | 4.26 | 4.71 | 8 |
| Burnett, A.J. | NYA | SP | 80.7 | 76 | 12 | 41 | 74 | 4.69 | 5.01 | 6 |
| Rivera, Mariano | NYA | RP | 26.7 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 3.71 | 3.43 | 5 |
| Pettitte, Andy | NYA | SP | 79.7 | 94 | 10 | 33 | 50 | 4.86 | 4.82 | 5 |
| Robertson, David A | NYA | RP | 12 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 3.00 | 1.92 | 3 |
| Bruney, Brian A | NYA | RP | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 3.00 | 0.94 | 2 |
| Coke, Phil | NYA | RP | 26.3 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 4.78 | 5.56 | 2 |
| Swisher, Nick T | NYA | RP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4.17 | 1 |
| Hughes, Phil | NYA | SP | 40.3 | 41 | 7 | 17 | 39 | 5.36 | 5.13 | 0 |
| Melancon, Mark D | NYA | RP | 3.3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5.40 | 7.37 | 0 |
| Tomko, Brett | NYA | RP | 11.3 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5.56 | 5.99 | 0 |
| Ramirez, Edwar E | NYA | RP | 17.3 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 5.71 | 8.42 | -1 |
| Veras, Jose | NYA | RP | 25.7 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 5.96 | 6.40 | -2 |
| Albaladejo, Jonathan | NYA | RP | 21 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 6.86 | 6.55 | -4 |
| Marte, Damaso | NYA | RP | 5.3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15.19 | 9.92 | -6 |
| Claggett, Anthony | NYA | RP | 1.7 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 43.20 | 19.97 | -7 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | SP | 21.3 | 45 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 14.34 | 6.45 | -22 |
| Total | 565.6 | 565 | 85 | 250 | 471 | 5.16 | 5.16 | 13 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings (earned and unearned)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher
Combined:
| Name | RAR |
| Teixeira, Mark | 24 |
| Jeter, Derek | 22 |
| Damon, Johnny | 16 |
| Sabathia, CC | 15 |
| Posada, Jorge | 11 |
| Swisher, Nick | 10 |
| Cabrera, Melky | 9 |
| Matsui, Hideki | 9 |
| Aceves, Alfredo | 8 |
| Cano, Robinson | 8 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | 8 |
| Gardner, Brett | 7 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 6 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 6 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 5 |
| Pettitte, Andy | 5 |
| Robertson, David A | 3 |
| Bruney, Brian A | 2 |
| Coke, Phil | 2 |
| Swisher, Nick T | 1 |
| Cervelli, Francisco | 0 |
| Hughes, Phil | 0 |
| Melancon, Mark D | 0 |
| Molina, Jose | 0 |
| Tomko, Brett | 0 |
| Ramirez, Edwar E | -1 |
| Nady, Xavier | -1 |
| Cash, Kevin | -1 |
| Veras, Jose | -2 |
| Pena, Ramiro | -3 |
| Albaladejo, Jonathan | -4 |
| Ransom, Cody | -5 |
| Berroa, Angel | -5 |
| Marte, Damaso | -6 |
| Claggett, Anthony | -7 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | -22 |
| Total | 119 |
As a team the Yankees are 119 runs above replacement level, which should translate to 12 wins above replacement. I set my replacement level at around a 60 win team level, so after 63 games a replacement level team would be around 23-40. The Yankees are 36-27, so they've been around 13 wins better. That one win difference is largely due to Chien-Ming Wang and Anthony Claggett giving up 16 runs in one game. It counts as two losses on virtual paper, but it was only one.
Friday, June 12, 2009
NY Times(Kepner): Wang’s Time in Rotation May Be Running Short
The struggling Chien-Ming Wang will get another start for the Yankees, but possibly no more after that. Manager Joe Girardi said he told Wang that the Yankees expected positive results from him next Wednesday against the Washington Nationals, with the underlying message that his position in the rotation would be on the line.
I’d rather discuss this than the Yankees vs. Red Sox.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Yankees.com: Melky, Yanks pick up Wang
NEW YORK—Whatever concern the Yankees had about Chien-Ming Wang’s effectiveness as a starting pitcher had not even remotely faded by the fifth inning Thursday, at which point Wang’s Yankees were losing by four runs. His forgettable return to the rotation was nearly complete.
But the Yankees rallied and Melky Cabrera provided some more of his late-inning dramatics, saving Wang with a tie-breaking two-run homer that led to an 8-6 win over the Rangers.
I am actually encouraged by what I saw out of Wang today. His velocity was pretty good and his sinker was moving pretty well. He struggled after the second, but I think that’s partially due to the fact that he hasn’t built up his stamina yet. Granted, he did throw some long games during rehab, but pitching in the majors is surely more stressful.
As for Melky, what can I say? He’s the king of clutch apparently.
Monday, June 1, 2009
May 2009 in Review
The Yankees entered May with a record of 12 and 10, two games out of first place in the AL East. They'd scored 128 runs and allowed 136 to that point.They proceeded to go 3-7 over the first 10 games of May, dropping their overall record to 15-17, and falling 6.5 games back of first place.
As you are likely aware, the Yankees finished May off with a bang by going 14-4 in their last 18 games. When I ran the last 16 games of May 1000 times through Diamond Mind the most likely record was 10-6. The Yankees actually went 12-4, which was the result in 12.1% of the simulations.
Overall, the Yankees went 17-11 in May, which is essentially a 98 win pace. How did they get there? Here are the team's performances on offense, defense and pitching.
| Player | Split | G | GS | PA | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | wOBA |
| Mark Teixeira | May | 28 | 28 | 128 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 34 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | .330 | .391 | .748 | 30 | .459 |
| Johnny Damon | May | 27 | 27 | 124 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 22 | 2 | 0 | .304 | .355 | .565 | 22 | .382 |
| Derek Jeter | May | 26 | 26 | 126 | 36 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 1 | .321 | .397 | .473 | 21 | .372 |
| Alex Rodriguez | May | 22 | 22 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 0 | .260 | .412 | .584 | 18 | .413 |
| Robinson Cano | May | 28 | 27 | 118 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | .272 | .297 | .465 | 14 | .312 |
| Hideki Matsui | May | 25 | 22 | 95 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0 | .241 | .295 | .483 | 13 | .323 |
| Melky Cabrera | May | 24 | 23 | 89 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 1 | .321 | .348 | .429 | 12 | .333 |
| Brett Gardner | May | 22 | 11 | 60 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | .327 | .417 | .538 | 11 | .413 |
| Nick Swisher | May | 27 | 25 | 103 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 0 | 0 | .150 | .311 | .275 | 9 | .278 |
| Jorge Posada | May | 6 | 4 | 21 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .444 | .524 | 1.000 | 7 | .607 |
| Ramiro Pena | May | 19 | 11 | 40 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | .231 | .250 | .308 | 3 | .243 |
| Jose Molina | May | 5 | 5 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .267 | .313 | .400 | 2 | .300 |
| Angel Berroa | May | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | .000 |
| Team | May | 269 | 232 | 1021 | 258 | 57 | 5 | 47 | 145 | 93 | 159 | 17 | 5 | .283 | .354 | .511 | 160 | .363 |
PA: Plate appearances
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted or above/below average/replacement)
wOBA: Weighted on base average
Mark Teixeira had a nice little month, although not as good as Angel Berroa. Yes, the Yankees as a team slugged .511. That's pretty good.
| Player | Split | G | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | May | 6 | 45.7 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 2.76 | 2.56 | 2.94 | 2.46 | 2.65 | 15.4 |
| Alfredo Aceves | May | 9 | 19.7 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.01 | 6.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | May | 5 | 32.3 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 18 | 32 | 4.18 | 4.18 | 4.78 | 4.58 | 4.51 | 5.8 |
| Mariano Rivera | May | 10 | 11.0 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 4.65 | 3.75 | 3.62 | 4.1 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | May | 3 | 8.0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 3.83 | 4.64 | 3.57 | 3.2 |
| Andy Pettitte | May | 6 | 36.3 | 46 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 5.20 | 4.95 | 6.20 | 6.37 | 5.84 | 2.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | May | 5 | 22.3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 4.84 | 4.84 | 4.81 | 5.67 | 5.11 | 2.4 |
| Edwar Ramirez | May | 8 | 9.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 8.09 | 5.93 | 6.01 | 1.8 |
| David Robertson | May | 7 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 1.46 | 2.15 | 1.2 |
| Brett Tomko | May | 5 | 4.3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 7.58 | 6.09 | 5.94 | 0.8 |
| Brian Bruney | May | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.6 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | May | 9 | 10.0 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5.40 | 3.60 | 6.50 | 6.13 | 5.41 | 0.4 |
| Phil Coke | May | 11 | 11.0 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5.73 | 5.73 | 8.56 | 5.48 | 6.59 | 0.1 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | May | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| Damaso Marte | May | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 |
| Mark Melancon | May | 2 | 0.3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 54.00 | 54.00 | 39.20 | 18.15 | 37.12 | -1.8 |
| Jose Veras | May | 13 | 9.7 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 8.38 | 8.38 | 8.79 | 8.75 | 8.64 | -2.8 |
| Phil Hughes | May | 6 | 28.7 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 6.91 | 6.59 | 5.96 | 6.53 | 6.36 | -3.5 |
| Team | May | 133 | 273.3 | 251 | 128 | 150 | 42 | 112 | 213 | 4.21 | 4.94 | 5.07 | 4.42 | 4.81 | 48.1 |
FIP: FIP
CERA: Component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
AVG: Average of ERA,FIP and CERA
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher
C.C. Sabathia earned his money in May. It's only eight innings, but Chien-Ming Wang is showing signs of life. As a team, the Yankee pitching wasn't really all that great in May, although they were better than they were in April.
| Dates | Player | Pos | G | INN | CH | PM | ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Teixeira, Mark | 1B | 27 | 243.3 | 48 | 44 | .008 | 41 | 3 | 3 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cabrera, Melky | CF | 17 | 125.0 | 37 | 36 | .032 | 33 | 3 | 2 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cabrera, Melky | RF | 9 | 53.0 | 21 | 20 | .413 | 18 | 2 | 2 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Damon, Johnny | LF | 26 | 228.3 | 51 | 46 | .023 | 45 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cano, Robinson | 2B | 28 | 244.3 | 80 | 65 | -.012 | 64 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Gardner, Brett | CF | 18 | 129.3 | 43 | 40 | .035 | 39 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Cabrera, Melky | LF | 4 | 26.0 | 8 | 8 | .157 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Berroa, Angel | 3B | 7 | 17.0 | 8 | 7 | .255 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Pena, Ramiro | SS | 4 | 27.0 | 10 | 8 | -.154 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Pena, Ramiro | 3B | 10 | 64.0 | 22 | 17 | .004 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Swisher, Nick | 1B | 1 | 11.0 | 1 | 0 | -.167 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Pena, Ramiro | 2B | 2 | 10.0 | 4 | 2 | .500 | 3 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Jeter, Derek | SS | 25 | 227.3 | 63 | 51 | .003 | 52 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Swisher, Nick | RF | 24 | 201.3 | 43 | 36 | -.022 | 37 | -1 | -1 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 20 | 173.3 | 38 | 25 | .658 | 30 | -5 | -4 |
| 5/1 - 5/31 | Total | 1780.3 | 477 | 405 | .849 | 401 | 4 | 3 |
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average
The numbers agree with my eyes on Teixeira, he's been awesome defensively. As a team, the Yankees were above average defensively in May, with only Alex Rodriguez looking particularly bad. Of course, he's dealing with his hip issue which may mean his defense is going to be subpar all season. There's a lot of hype about the Yankees' errorless streak, but that's less important than the fact that they are showing better range so far.
It's tough to complain about how May went overall. Let's hope June is even better.
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Yankee Home/Road Splits through games of May 29, 2009
I was wondering about who has benefitted the most from the New Yankee Stadium, so I pulled the splits to see what they say.First up, the hitters:
| Player | rPA | rwOBA | hPA | hwOBA | Ratio |
| Mark Teixeira | 105 | .324 | 104 | .465 | 1.44 |
| Jorge Posada | 56 | .353 | 40 | .482 | 1.37 |
| Melky Cabrera | 59 | .308 | 85 | .405 | 1.31 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 45 | .371 | 43 | .467 | 1.26 |
| Johnny Damon | 106 | .342 | 100 | .429 | 1.26 |
| Cody Ransom | 31 | .209 | 22 | .256 | 1.23 |
| Derek Jeter | 112 | .333 | 108 | .386 | 1.16 |
| Brett Gardner | 69 | .312 | 46 | .352 | 1.13 |
| Hideki Matsui | 80 | .354 | 84 | .333 | 0.94 |
| Jose Molina | 28 | .340 | 20 | .285 | 0.84 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 22 | .319 | 19 | .249 | 0.78 |
| Ramiro Pena | 30 | .312 | 39 | .232 | 0.74 |
| Robinson Cano | 111 | .414 | 98 | .303 | 0.73 |
| Nick Swisher | 102 | .434 | 86 | .270 | 0.62 |
| Kevin Cash | 13 | .422 | 15 | .076 | 0.18 |
| Angel Berroa | 8 | .225 | 4 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Xavier Nady | 29 | .306 | 0 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1006 | .349 | 913 | .365 | 1.05 |
rPA: Road plate appearances
rwOBA: Road weighted on base average
hPA: Home plate appearances
hwOBA: Home weighted on base average
Ratio: hwOBA divided by rwOBA (greater than one means better at NYS)
Bear in mind that the average player hits about 10% better at home in a neutral park. I thought Johnny Damon would head this list, but it's Mark Teixeira instead. I also thought Derek Jeter would have had a bigger split than he has.
And the pitchers:
And the pitchers:
| Player | hIP | hERA | hFIP | hCERA | hAVG | rIP | rERA | rFIP | rCERA | rAVG | Ratio |
| Brett Tomko | 3.3 | 2.70 | 5.00 | 1.65 | 3.12 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 16.20 | 14.97 | 13.39 | 4.30 |
| Jose Veras | 14.3 | 5.65 | 5.57 | 3.23 | 4.82 | 5.3 | 8.44 | 7.51 | 5.52 | 7.16 | 1.49 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 9.7 | 3.72 | 6.20 | 4.35 | 4.76 | 11.3 | 7.94 | 7.44 | 5.66 | 7.01 | 1.47 |
| Alfredo Aceves | 11.7 | 1.54 | 3.46 | 2.38 | 2.46 | 8.0 | 4.50 | 3.08 | 2.32 | 3.30 | 1.34 |
| Mariano Rivera | 13.0 | 2.08 | 3.74 | 3.55 | 3.12 | 7.7 | 3.52 | 4.37 | 3.39 | 3.76 | 1.21 |
| David Robertson | 4.3 | 2.08 | 2.51 | 2.05 | 2.21 | 2.0 | 4.50 | 1.70 | 1.24 | 2.48 | 1.12 |
| Phil Coke | 10.7 | 4.22 | 6.76 | 3.22 | 4.74 | 9.7 | 4.66 | 5.99 | 3.58 | 4.74 | 1.00 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 9.0 | 5.00 | 8.98 | 5.95 | 6.64 | 8.3 | 5.40 | 7.88 | 5.88 | 6.39 | 0.96 |
| Brian Bruney | 4.0 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 0.71 | 1.55 | 5.0 | 3.60 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 1.45 | 0.94 |
| CC Sabathia | 34.0 | 3.97 | 3.35 | 2.56 | 3.29 | 37.0 | 2.92 | 3.55 | 2.27 | 2.91 | 0.88 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 4.3 | 20.77 | 8.51 | 12.62 | 13.97 | 6.7 | 20.25 | 7.40 | 8.91 | 12.19 | 0.87 |
| A.J. Burnett | 32.0 | 4.78 | 5.79 | 4.23 | 4.93 | 32.0 | 4.78 | 4.48 | 3.17 | 4.15 | 0.84 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 17.0 | 5.82 | 4.91 | 4.35 | 5.03 | 28.3 | 2.86 | 4.96 | 3.90 | 3.91 | 0.78 |
| Phil Hughes | 14.0 | 5.79 | 7.91 | 6.80 | 6.83 | 15.7 | 4.60 | 4.03 | 2.71 | 3.78 | 0.55 |
| Andy Pettitte | 32.3 | 5.57 | 5.92 | 5.15 | 5.54 | 31.3 | 2.59 | 3.84 | 2.47 | 2.96 | 0.53 |
| Damaso Marte | 2.3 | 27.00 | 16.49 | 16.55 | 20.01 | 3.0 | 6.00 | 5.87 | 3.30 | 5.05 | 0.25 |
| Mark Melancon | 0.3 | 54.00 | 39.20 | 14.43 | 35.88 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 3.87 | 0.87 | 1.58 | 0.04 |
| Anthony Paul Claggett | 1.7 | 43.20 | 20.00 | 22.74 | 28.65 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 218 | 5.61 | 4.41 | 5.13 | 5.05 | 215 | 4.51 | 4.67 | 3.38 | 4.19 | 0.83 |
hIP: Home innings pitched
hERA: Home ERA
hFIP: Home FIP
hCERA: Home component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
hAVG: Home average of ERA,FIP and CERA
rIP: Home innings pitched
rERA: Home ERA
rFIP: Home FIP
rCERA: Home component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
rAVG: Home average of ERA,FIP and CERA
Ratio: rAVG divided by hAVG (greater than one means better at NYS)
Looking at the starting pitchers, Andy Pettitte's been hurt the most by the new stadium so far, but all five starters have been better on the road. That's not exactly a newsflash if you've watched the games.
Thursday, May 21, 2009
Yankee WAR Through Games of May 20
| Last | First | Tm | Lg | Pos | RAR | WAR |
| Damon | Johnny | NYA | AL | LF | 16.6 | 1.7 |
| Sabathia | CC | NYA | AL | SP | 16.4 | 1.6 |
| Cano | Robinson | NYA | AL | 2B | 11.8 | 1.2 |
| Cabrera | Melky | NYA | AL | CF | 9.5 | 0.9 |
| Pettitte | Andy | NYA | AL | SP | 8.8 | 0.9 |
| Jeter | Derek | NYA | AL | SS | 8.6 | 0.9 |
| Teixeira | Mark | NYA | AL | 1B | 7.8 | 0.8 |
| Posada | Jorge | NYA | AL | C | 7.8 | 0.8 |
| Swisher | Nick T | NYA | AL | RF | 7.4 | 0.7 |
| Chamberlain | Joba L | NYA | AL | SP | 7.4 | 0.7 |
| Burnett | A.J. | NYA | AL | SP | 6.0 | 0.6 |
| Rivera | Mariano | NYA | AL | RP | 5.9 | 0.6 |
| Aceves | Alfredo | NYA | AL | RP | 4.9 | 0.5 |
| Rodriguez | Alex | NYA | AL | 3B | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| Bruney | Brian A | NYA | AL | RP | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| Matsui | Hideki | NYA | AL | DH | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Cervelli | Francisco | NYA | AL | C | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| Gardner | Brett | NYA | AL | CF | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Tomko | Brett | NYA | AL | RP | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| Swisher | Nick T | NYA | AL | RP | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Ramirez | Edwar E | NYA | AL | RP | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Albaladejo | Jonathan | NYA | AL | RP | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Melancon | Mark D | NYA | AL | RP | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Robertson | David A | NYA | AL | RP | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Coke | Phil | NYA | AL | RP | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| Nady | Xavier | NYA | AL | RF | -0.3 | 0.0 |
| Pena | Ramiro | NYA | AL | 3B | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| Veras | Jose | NYA | AL | RP | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| Cash | Kevin | NYA | AL | C | -2.2 | -0.2 |
| Molina | Jose | NYA | AL | C | -2.3 | -0.2 |
| Hughes | Phil | NYA | AL | SP | -3.4 | -0.3 |
| Ransom | Cody | NYA | AL | 3B | -3.7 | -0.4 |
| Berroa | Angel | NYA | AL | 3B | -4.7 | -0.5 |
| Marte | Damaso | NYA | AL | RP | -5.4 | -0.5 |
| Claggett | Anthony | NYA | AL | RP | -6.9 | -0.7 |
| Wang | Chien-Ming | NYA | AL | SP | -19.0 | -1.9 |
RAR: Runs above replacement, which consists of offensive runs above replacement level at primary position using linear weights and defensive runs saved above average using zone rating for non-catchers, and using a catcher defense system that looks at SB, CS, errors, WP + PB for postion players. For pitchers, it's simply runs saved compared to a replacement level pitcher over the player's actual playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (RAR divided by 10)
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
NY Times Bats Blog: As Halladay Silences Yanks, Wang Nears Return
That was pretty obvious Tuesday, when the Yankees did not have a single flyout until the ninth inning. Pure domination, but the Yankees are used to it. In his last 19 starts against them, Halladay is 13-2 with a 2.09 E.R.A.
There is no shame in losing to Halladay, but the Yankees could have made a statement if they had won. The Blue Jays own the division for now, at 23-12, six and a half games better than the Yankees, who had their usual dose of veterans nursing injuries. Derek Jeter was out with a pulled oblique muscle, and Hideki Matsui left with tightness in his right hamstring.
At least, for the Yankees, there was Chien-Ming Wang, who tossed six shutout innings for Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre against Charlotte, whose lineup included an old friend, Andy Phillips (he’s batting .342).
It doesn’t sound like they will DL Jeter yet, but I think that’s a mistake. Good news about Wang anyway, although I’d like to see if his velocity and movement were also improved.
Losing to Halladay in and of itself isn’t really a huge deal, but the Yankees have the pitching edge on paper the next two games and it would be nice to see them win them both.
Sunday, May 3, 2009
The Star-Ledger: New York Yankees’ Chien-Ming Wang to throw fewer pitches, focus on physical therap
NEW YORK—The Yankees have scaled back Chien-Ming Wang’s throwing program, general manager Brian Cashman said, so that the injured pitcher can focus on physical therapy designed to eliminate the weakness in his hips and lower body that landed him on the 15-day disabled list.
“We’re going to try to keep him on a five-man rotation situation,” Cashman said of Wang’s appearances in extended spring training games. “But the pitch counts will be much lower so it’s not as physically taxing on him while he’s getting the strength that he needs from the waist down back.”
Wang was allowed to throw as many as 65 pitches in an extended spring outing on Saturday, though he left the game after throwing 52 pitches, a result of the effort to limit his pitching count. Cashman refused to put a timetable on Wang’s return, who was officially put on the disabled list April 25 with an adductor muscle weakness, which affected his velocity.
I don’t remember his velocity being a problem - perhaps I was distracted by the number of hits he gave up in each start.
The weather looks pretty bad for tomorrow into the evening. Hopefully they can still get the game in, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Friday, May 1, 2009
April Review
April is the cruelest month. Well, maybe not exactly cruel in the case of the Yankees. But, the Bombers haven’t exactly hit the ground running in April the last few years. The Yankees were 14-15 in April of 2008; 9-14 in 2007; and 13-10 in 2006.
A record of 12-10, while not quite spectacular, is fairly good all things considered.
Here’s a quick glance at the Yankee’s month of April in 2009:
The Good
• Robinson Cano - Cano’s line of .366/.400/.581 is a bit of a surprise considering that one year earlier he sported a line of .151/.211/.236 and .270/.320/.337 in April of 2007. The Yankee’s second baseman has, with some exceptions, traditionally been a bit of a slow starter offensively. We heard reports of a hard-working Cano in the off-season. It appears that hard work has paid off.
• Nick Swisher - When Xavier Nady went down with an injury, Swisher got his chance to shine, as well as send Ozzie Guillen a message. Hitting .312/.430/.714, and sporting a 192 OPS+, the message is loud and clear. While you can expect Swisher to come back to earth as the season progresses, his contributions in April were certainly huge with Alex Rodriguez on the DL and Mark Teixeira struggling.
• Andy Pettitte - The off-season drama that was the “will they or won’t they resign Andy” took a back seat to the Teixeira and Sabathia headlines. However, through the first month of the season, the Pettitte signing has turned out to have had the most impact. The veteran left hander is 2-1 with a 161 ERA+ so far this season. Not bad from your #5 starter.
• Hideki Matsui - After a somewhat slow start, Matsui has settled into a nice offensive groove. With a few crappy games at the plate to begin the season, all we heard was that his balky surgically repaired knee was shot and he’d never be the same. Nineteen games worth of a .903 OPS may suggest otherwise.
The Bad
• Brian Bruney - The guy was rolling. Sporting a .111 BAA with 12 strikeouts through 9 innings, Bruney was making his case as the setup man to Mariano Rivera. But a strained flexor muscle placed him on the DL. The good news is that it looks like he will be able to return to the team soon.
• Mark Teixeira - OK, so perhaps Mark does not deserve to grace Lee Van Cleef’s title category. However, he certainly hasn’t excelled in his first month in pinstripes. He barely escaped a sub .200 AVG for the month of April with a 1-4 night on April 30th, if that means anything to anyone. Personally, I am still concerned about the wrist injury he suffered early in the month; although there hasn’t been any word from the team that he is feeling any discomfort. Bottom line: Teixeira is a great hitter. If he’s healthy going forward, his production will pick up eventually. And if that happens to coincide with A-Rod’s return, OMGWTFBBQ!
• Xavier Nady - The loss of Xavier Nady to a right elbow injury was a hit on the Yankees’ depth. However, Nady will not need surgery and could return to the team by the end of May.
The Ugly
• The New Yankee Stadium Home Opener - Yeah, it might be a bit superficial, but a Yankee win in the first game at the new Yankee Stadium would have been nice. The game was within reach until an Orioles 9-run 7th inning. There’s your ugly.
• Chien-Ming Wang - Yeah, he’s been pretty bad. A 34.50 ERA through 3 starts speaks for itself. It’s tough to get a read on exactly what his major malfunction really is. After not pitching at all last year after his injury on June 15th, it is possible he’s just not fully recovered. Or perhaps Wang simply needs to iron out his mechanics. Whatever the case may be, he continues to work on getting back to form in extended spring training games, but it is unclear as to his exact return date.
• Sat. 04/18: CLE 22, NYY 4 - A 14-run second inning for the Indians pretty much took the Yankees out of the game early. But the worst part was the lack of a Swisher relief appearance.
• Sox Sweep Yankees - It was a brutal weekend featuring a Mo blown save, 25 Boston runs, and a steal of home by Jacoby Ellsbury. Better it happen in April than in September.
There are plenty of other goods that could be listed (Hughes call up and great start, Joba’s recent performance, Burnett’s first few starts, Melancon’s call up, Melky’s revival?, Phil Coke’s pitching), as well as a number of bads (Sabathia’s slow start, Burnett’s meltdown in Boston, Marte’s 15.19 ERA, Gardner’s inability to hit).
SG will hopefully post the log5 numbers for April, which will likely show the Yankees not too far off pace. As of today, PECOTA projects the Yankees with a better than 45% chance to take the AL East (highest % of any team) and a 74.21% chance to make the playoffs.
Bring on May!
Monday, April 27, 2009
NBC Sports: Celizic: Sweep exposes Yankees’ big weaknesses
The Yankee lineup is more expensive and sounds more impressive, but it isn’t. Derek Jeter has started well, but he’s not a leadoff hitter.
Uhm, the fact that he bats leadoff makes him a leadoff hitter by definition.
Brett Gardner is an exciting player with unbelievable speed, but his .254 on-base average is not the stuff of which legendary leadoff hitters are made.
Yer preachin’ to the choir on this one, although definitively deciding that Gardner’s OBP after 65 PA is his true talent level is stupid.
Mark Teixeira, the big free-agent acquisition who turned down Boston for Yankee dollars in the offseason, is off this his customary bad start… It’s hard to see how the Yankees are going to get better quickly.
If Teixeira is off to his customary bad start, doesn’t that mean the Yankees will get better when he starts hitting better? Oh, and there’s some third baseman due back soon, although he’s so unclutch he probably makes the team worse. Also, Chien-Ming Wang will either start pitching better or will not be pitching anymore, unless you think the Yankees will continue to run someone with a 34.50 ERA out there indefinitely.
When you play a team that’s as good as your team on the road, you should not really expect to win more than one out of three games in a three game series due to the home field advantage. If you lose all three, yeah, it sucks. If you lose all three in the way that the Yankees did, it sucks worse. But realistically, all it does is knock the Yankees a win off from where they should be. Celzic sounds like some of the posters on this site.
My bold prediction: The Yankees will beat the Red Sox at least once this season. Book it.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The Afterthought
Coming into 2009, with newly signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett fronting a rotation that was also returning a supposedly healthy Chien-Ming Wang and with the talented Joba Chamberlain penciled in as a starter exclusively, it was pretty easy to ignore Andy Pettitte. In fact, a lot of people didn’t even want him back since he’d be blocking Phil Hughes and since he had an ERA of 6.23 over his last 11 games in 2008. After a long and drawn-out process where the Yankees offered him a contract and then pulled it and then presented a modified deal that was incentive-laden, Pettitte was brought back as the fifth starter.
Pitcher RSAR(Runs saved above replacement)
Andy Pettitte* : 8.4
A.J. Burnett : 6.1
C.C. Sabathia* : 4.7
Mariano Rivera : 4.1
Brian Bruney : 2.5
Jonathan Albaladejo : 2.5
David Robertson : 1.4
Nick Swisher* : 0.7
Joba Chamberlain : -1.1
Edwar Ramirez : -1.5
Jose Veras : -1.8
Phil Coke* : -3.5
Damaso Marte* : -5.0
Anthony Claggett : -7.2
Chien-Ming Wang : -18.9
Pettitte has been the best pitcher on the Yankees to this point in the season. While we shouldn’t expect it to continue, he’s been a very important piece, especially given Wang’s struggles. The Yankees have won all three of his starts, essentially canceling out Wang’s horrific three starts. Pettitte’s gone at least seven innings in each game as well, giving the bullpen a much needed rest.
I’m glad to see that he still has something left in the tank, and hopefully he’ll continue to pitch reasonably well going forward. I just thought he deserved a little recognition today.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Wang and Batted Ball Charts
GB: Ground ball %
FB: Fly ball %
LD: Line drive %
IFFB: Infield fly ball %
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Longest Streak with ER>=7 From 1954 to 2009
| Name | Start | End | G | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | FIP |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 4/8/2009 | ?????? | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 34.50 | 9.87 |
| Hayden Penn | 9/3/2006 | 9/15/2006 | 3 | 7.1 | 24 | 22 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27.00 | 13.62 |
| Sean Bergman | 5/10/2000 | 5/21/2000 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20.45 | 9.11 |
| Mike Maroth | 7/19/2007 | 8/1/2007 | 3 | 10.2 | 31 | 24 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20.25 | 7.22 |
| Bobby Witt | 4/25/1998 | 5/6/1998 | 3 | 10.1 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 18.29 | 11.02 |
| Jose Contreras | 7/20/2007 | 7/31/2007 | 3 | 14.2 | 30 | 26 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 15.95 | 9.19 |
| Dontrelle Willis | 7/8/2005 | 7/22/2005 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 15.92 | 6.28 |
| Tim Belcher | 7/6/1997 | 7/17/1997 | 3 | 14.2 | 27 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 14.73 | 8.69 |
| Jaime Navarro | 7/9/1993 | 7/22/1993 | 3 | 13.2 | 31 | 25 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 13.83 | 5.40 |
| Andy Benes | 8/11/1993 | 8/22/1993 | 3 | 15 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 13.80 | 8.80 |
| Nelson Cruz | 4/25/2003 | 5/8/2003 | 3 | 14.2 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 7 | 12.89 | 8.06 |
| Carlos Silva | 4/18/2006 | 4/29/2006 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 24 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12.71 | 8.79 |
| Scott Erickson | 6/18/2000 | 6/29/2000 | 3 | 15.2 | 30 | 22 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 12.64 | 7.94 |
| Kip Wells | 4/24/2007 | 5/5/2007 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 12.60 | 7.87 |
| Pedro Astacio | 8/27/1998 | 9/7/1998 | 3 | 15.1 | 28 | 21 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 12.33 | 6.51 |
| Kevin Brown | 4/14/1994 | 4/23/1994 | 3 | 17.2 | 37 | 25 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 12.23 | 4.89 |
| Cliff Lee | 7/16/2007 | 7/26/2007 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 22 | 21 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 11.81 | 3.95 |
| Cal Eldred | 5/11/1994 | 5/22/1994 | 3 | 18.1 | 29 | 21 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 10.31 | 8.78 |
Friday, April 17, 2009
2009 Yankee Run Values through Games of April 16
Position Players| Overall AL Rank | Name | Team | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BRAR | dRSAA | pRSAR | tRAR |
| 6 | Swisher, Nick | NYA | 1B | 37 | .406 | .486 | 1.000 | 7.8 | -1.3 | 0.5 | 7.0 |
| 10 | Cano, Robinson | NYA | 2B | 43 | .421 | .488 | .632 | 6.2 | -0.7 | 5.4 | |
| 34 | Posada, Jorge | NYA | C | 35 | .267 | .343 | .600 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 3.0 | |
| 43 | Jeter, Derek | NYA | SS | 45 | .293 | .356 | .463 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 4.5 | |
| 92 | Pena, Ramiro | NYA | SS | 9 | .143 | .333 | .143 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | |
| 100 | Nady, Xavier | NYA | RF | 29 | .286 | .310 | .429 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | |
| 109 | Cabrera, Melky | NYA | RF | 11 | .300 | .364 | .300 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | |
| 117 | Gardner, Brett | NYA | CF | 38 | .265 | .306 | .353 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -1.3 | |
| 120 | Damon, Johnny | NYA | LF | 36 | .250 | .306 | .344 | -0.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | |
| 128 | Molina, Jose | NYA | C | 16 | .200 | .250 | .200 | -1.0 | 0.8 | -0.2 | |
| 131 | Matsui, Hideki | NYA | DH | 32 | .154 | .313 | .308 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | |
| 166 | Teixeira, Mark | NYA | 1B | 31 | .160 | .290 | .360 | -1.5 | 0.6 | -0.9 | |
| 188 | Ransom, Cody | NYA | 3B | 32 | .100 | .156 | .167 | -4.3 | -0.9 | -5.2 |
Pitchers
| Overall AL Rank | Name | Team | IP | H | HR | BB | K | RA | FIP | pRSAR | tRAR |
| 11 | Pettitte, Andy | NYA | 14.3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2.51 | 3.35 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| 16 | Sabathia, CC | NYA | 17.7 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 3.57 | 4.15 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| 17 | Burnett, A.J. | NYA | 13.3 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 2.70 | 2.59 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| 55 | Rivera, Mariano | NYA | 2.1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.42 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 70 | Bruney, Brian A | NYA | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3.60 | 0.62 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 75 | Albaladejo, Jonathan | NYA | 6.3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4.26 | 7.84 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| 83 | Chamberlain, Joba L | NYA | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4.50 | 5.42 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 97 | Swisher, Nick | NYA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4.20 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 148 | Veras, Jose | NYA | 3.3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13.50 | 4.32 | -2.7 | -2.7 |
| 168 | Coke, Phil | NYA | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 15.75 | 6.42 | -4.2 | -4.2 |
| 171 | Marte, Damaso | NYA | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27.00 | 19.42 | -4.6 | -4.6 |
| 177 | Wang, Chien-Ming | NYA | 4.7 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 28.93 | 10.27 | -11.8 | -11.8 |
Combined
| Name | tRAR |
| Swisher, Nick | 7.0 |
| Pettitte, Andy | 5.8 |
| Cano, Robinson | 5.4 |
| Sabathia, CC | 5.2 |
| Burnett, A.J. | 5.1 |
| Jeter, Derek | 4.5 |
| Posada, Jorge | 3.0 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 2.1 |
| Bruney, Brian A | 1.4 |
| Albaladejo, Jonathan | 1.3 |
| Chamberlain, Joba L | 1.1 |
| Damon, Johnny | 1.0 |
| Nady, Xavier | 0.7 |
| Molina, Jose | -0.2 |
| Pena, Ramiro | -0.4 |
| Cabrera, Melky | -0.5 |
| Matsui, Hideki | -0.5 |
| Teixeira, Mark | -0.9 |
| Gardner, Brett | -1.3 |
| Veras, Jose | -2.7 |
| Coke, Phil | -4.2 |
| Marte, Damaso | -4.6 |
| Ransom, Cody | -5.2 |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | -11.8 |
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
dRSAA: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating (UZR Is not updated daily so I am ignoring it for this)
pRSAR: Pitching runs saved above replacement level
tRAR: Total runs above replacement (all of the above added together)
It's early, so this is not saying anything about the players's ability, so don't be a jackass and take it that way and chide me for a 'stupid' post. All it shows is what the players have contributed to this point in the season after 10 games using the formulas I'm using. Special congratulations go out to Cody Ransom and Chien-Ming Wang, for being the least valuable position player and pitcher in the AL to this point in the season.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Is Wang Broken?
While two bad starts are not enough evidence that there's definitively something wrong with Chien-Ming Wang, I thought it might be useful to look at his Pitch F/X data for this season compared to last year. I'm using this nifty tool available at BrooksBaseball.net for this.To control for the fact that Wang's early season arm strength may not line up with where he will be mid-season, I'm only going to look at his first three starts in 2008, a stretch of games where Wang pitched very effectively (22 IP, 12 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 4 BB, 11 K).
Chien-Ming Wang - 4/1/2008 - 4/11/2008
| Pitch Type | Average Speed | Max Speed | Average H-Break | Average V-Break | Number Thrown | Strikes | Balls | Strike % | % Thrown |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 92.1 | 95.4 | -11.7 | 5.9 | 182 | 124 | 58 | 68.1% | 73.1% |
| SI (Sinker) | 90.1 | 92.4 | -10.8 | 5.0 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 71.4% | 5.6% |
| CH (Changeup) | 84.9 | 89.7 | -5.6 | 2.1 | 35 | 13 | 22 | 37.1% | 14.1% |
| SL (Slider) | 85.1 | 92.9 | -5.1 | 1.4 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 38.9% | 7.2% |
| Total | 249 | 154 | 95 | 61.8% |
Compare that to Wang's numbers for his first two starts this season.
Chien-Ming Wang -4/8/2009, 4/13/2009
| Pitch Type | Average Speed | Max Speed | Average H-Break | Average V-Break | Number Thrown | Strikes | Balls | Strike % | % Thrown |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 90.6 | 92.7 | -7.7 | 6.6 | 66 | 38 | 28 | 57.6% | 50.4% |
| SI (Sinker) | 90.2 | 92.2 | -9.4 | 5.5 | 44 | 25 | 19 | 56.8% | 33.6% |
| CH (Changeup) | 80.3 | 84.2 | -9.1 | 3.6 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 41.7% | 9.2% |
| SL (Slider) | 82.4 | 84.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 66.7% | 6.9% |
| Total | 131 | 74 | 57 | 56.5% |
And here are the differences we should be looking at.
Difference
| Pitch Type | Average Speed | Max Speed | Average H-Break | Average V-Break | Number Thrown | Strikes | Balls | Strike % | % Thrown |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 1.5 | 2.7 | -4.0 | -0.8 | 10.6% | 22.7% | |||
| SI (Sinker) | -0.2 | 0.2 | -1.4 | -0.5 | 14.6% | -28.0% | |||
| CH (Changeup) | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.5 | -1.6 | -4.5% | 4.9% | |||
| SL (Slider) | 2.7 | 8.7 | -5.9 | 0.6 | -27.8% | 0.4% |
Pitch F/X's pitch classifications are still a work in progress, and the numbers are still not completely consistent across all parks, so there may be some questions about how accurate the data above is. I think Wang's fastball and sinker confuse the system because I'm pretty sure Wang threw his sinker more than 5.6% of the time in his first three starts last year.
Still, we can see that Wang's fastball is averaging about 1.5 miles less so far in 2009, with less horizontal movement. Wang's sinker appears to have the same velocity as last year, but with less horizontal movement. Assuming his fastball and sinker are essentially combined, he's thrown fewer changeups and sliders to this point on a percentage basis. He's also throwing fewer strikes.
I don't know if this tells us anything, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit concerned about what I've seen out of Wang so far. Hopefully he gets better soon.
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Daily News: A.J. Burnett sharp, bats come alive as Yankees avert sweep against Orioles
Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher both homered in support of A.J. Burnett, who gave up two runs in 5 1/3 innings to pick up his first win, as the Yankees avoided a season-opening sweep with an 11-2 win over the Orioles.
Burnett gave up seven hits and walked one, striking out six - the first strikeouts this season by a Yankees starter - giving the Bombers the type of performance that neither CC Sabathia nor Chien-Ming Wang was able to provide.
Swisher had three hits - including a two-run homer that put the Yankees ahead for good - and matched a career-high with five RBI in his first start of the year, while Teixeira went 2-for-4 with a home run and two runs scored, silencing the Camden Yards crowd that had lustily jeered him for three consecutive days.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
MLB.com: Wang has rough time in return
Making his first start since June, Wang was rocked for seven runs and chased in the fourth inning by the Orioles, who rolled to a 7-5 victory over the Yankees on Wednesday in the season’s second game.
Wang was making his comeback after suffering a sprain and tear in his right foot while running the bases on June 15 in Houston. Though Wang appeared strong during the spring, he never appeared to settle in against the Orioles, who rapped him for nine hits in 3 2/3 innings. Four of the first five batters he faced reached base, with Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff knocking RBI doubles.
Apparently, Yankee starters missed the ‘Commanding the Zone’ workout this Spring Training.
Larry informed me that only three teams in MLB history have started out the season on the road losing their first two and have gone on to win the World Series. Channel that ‘98 spirit, everyone.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Pitching Staff Wrapup
The Yankees re-made their starting rotation by bringing in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. With Chien-Ming Wang back from his injury, Andy Pettitte back as the #4 starter instead of the #2 starter and Joba Chamberlain hopefully spending a full season in the rotation and giving them 30-40 more innings, they should be pretty clearly improved over last year, but let's look at what the projections think. Defense is already incorporated in these projections so I will not double-count it by adding it in again.Scenario 1: Optimistic
Because of the volatility of projecting pitchers in both health and effectiveness, I don't like doing just one projection for the pitching staff. So I'm going to present three different scenarios. First scenario will be what happens if everything goes to plan.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | cairo | chone | hbt | marcel | ||||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 220 | 95 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 91 | 3.41 | 3.33 | 86 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 84 | 3.07 | 3.13 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 200 | 100 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 93 | 3.88 | 3.76 | 92 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 97 | 3.99 | 3.72 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 200 | 97 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 107 | 4.47 | 3.97 | 93 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 90 | 3.83 | 3.89 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 200 | 109 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 104 | 4.31 | 3.93 | 102 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 106 | 4.38 | 3.99 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 150 | 62 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 61 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 58 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 56 | 3.07 | 3.14 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 70 | 37 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 36 | 4.28 | 4.21 | 36 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 38 | 4.61 | 4.19 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 20 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 24 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 21 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 25 | 3.09 | 3.08 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 30 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 28 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 27 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 28 | 3.92 | 3.62 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 29 | 4.95 | 4.84 | 25 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 23 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 22 | 3.56 | 4.10 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 26 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 24 | 4.05 | 3.95 | 23 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.22 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.72 | 3.77 | 20 | 3.38 | 3.43 | 24 | 3.92 | 3.69 | 26 | 4.42 | 4.22 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.62 | 4.10 | 16 | 3.38 | 3.73 | 21 | 4.32 | 5.33 | 15 | 3.13 | 3.64 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 25 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 23 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 19 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 19 | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 8 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 10 | 4.08 | 4.11 | 10 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 11 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 12 | 4.79 | 3.96 | 12 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 10 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 10 | 4.32 | 4.32 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 692 | 4.01 | 3.75 | 674 | 3.89 | 3.63 | 645 | 3.73 | 3.76 | 653 | 3.76 | 3.68 |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | pecota | zips | Average | ||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 220 | 92 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 81 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 88 | 3.29 | 3.28 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 200 | 93 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 95 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 95 | 3.93 | 3.71 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 200 | 109 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 94 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 98 | 4.11 | 3.98 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 200 | 107 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 106 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 106 | 4.37 | 3.98 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 150 | 57 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 68 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 60 | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 70 | 40 | 4.74 | 4.27 | 36 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 37 | 4.45 | 4.10 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 21 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 19 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 22 | 2.59 | 2.61 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 27 | 3.76 | 3.84 | 26 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 28 | 3.81 | 3.70 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 27 | 4.47 | 4.69 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.90 | 26 | 4.25 | 4.48 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 26 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 21 | 3.51 | 3.69 | 23 | 3.86 | 3.58 | 23 | 3.80 | 3.71 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 19 | 3.97 | 4.21 | 19 | 3.90 | 4.53 | 19 | 3.88 | 4.25 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 23 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 22 | 4.60 | 4.51 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 9 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 10 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 10 | 3.98 | 3.69 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 11 | 4.34 | 4.09 | 12 | 5.02 | 4.82 | 11 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 678 | 3.86 | 3.75 | 666 | 3.86 | 3.76 | 668 | 3.85 | 3.72 |
With this pitching staff, the Yankees would project to win 99 games on paper, although we have to adjust that downward for strength of AL East, so figure around 97.
Scenario 2: More Realistic
| Pitcher | Role | IP | cairo | chone | hbt | marcel | ||||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 86 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 82 | 3.41 | 3.33 | 78 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 77 | 3.07 | 3.13 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 180 | 90 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 84 | 3.88 | 3.76 | 83 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 88 | 3.99 | 3.72 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 175 | 85 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 93 | 4.47 | 3.97 | 81 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 79 | 3.83 | 3.89 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 95 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 91 | 4.31 | 3.93 | 90 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 93 | 4.38 | 3.99 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 125 | 52 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 51 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 48 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 47 | 3.07 | 3.14 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 100 | 54 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 51 | 4.28 | 4.21 | 51 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 55 | 4.61 | 4.19 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 30 | 4.84 | 4.48 | 27 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.68 | 30 | 5.01 | 4.35 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 35 | 20 | 4.83 | 4.37 | 21 | 4.95 | 4.96 | 21 | 4.95 | 4.87 | 16 | 3.86 | 4.34 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 20 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 24 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 21 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 25 | 3.09 | 3.08 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 30 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 28 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 27 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 28 | 3.92 | 3.62 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 29 | 4.95 | 4.84 | 25 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 23 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 22 | 3.56 | 4.10 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 26 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 24 | 4.05 | 3.95 | 23 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.22 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.72 | 3.77 | 20 | 3.38 | 3.43 | 24 | 3.92 | 3.69 | 26 | 4.42 | 4.22 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.62 | 4.10 | 16 | 3.38 | 3.73 | 21 | 4.32 | 5.33 | 15 | 3.13 | 3.64 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 25 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 23 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 19 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 19 | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 8 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 10 | 4.08 | 4.11 | 10 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 11 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 12 | 4.79 | 3.96 | 12 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 10 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 10 | 4.32 | 4.32 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 703 | 4.07 | 3.80 | 683 | 3.94 | 3.70 | 658 | 3.81 | 3.84 | 664 | 3.83 | 3.74 |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | pecota | zips | Average | ||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 83 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 74 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 80 | 3.29 | 3.28 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 180 | 84 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 86 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 86 | 3.93 | 3.71 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 175 | 95 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 82 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 86 | 4.11 | 3.98 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 94 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 93 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 93 | 4.37 | 3.98 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 125 | 47 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 57 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 50 | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 100 | 58 | 4.74 | 4.27 | 51 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 53 | 4.45 | 4.10 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 28 | 4.71 | 4.52 | 27 | 4.57 | 4.39 | 28 | 4.70 | 4.47 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 35 | 21 | 5.03 | 4.84 | 22 | 5.19 | 5.18 | 20 | 4.80 | 4.75 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 21 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 19 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 22 | 2.59 | 2.61 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 27 | 3.76 | 3.84 | 26 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 28 | 3.81 | 3.70 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 27 | 4.47 | 4.69 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.90 | 26 | 4.25 | 4.48 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 26 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 21 | 3.51 | 3.69 | 23 | 3.86 | 3.58 | 23 | 3.80 | 3.71 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 19 | 3.97 | 4.21 | 19 | 3.90 | 4.53 | 19 | 3.88 | 4.25 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 23 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 22 | 4.60 | 4.51 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 9 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 10 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 10 | 3.98 | 3.69 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 11 | 4.34 | 4.09 | 12 | 5.02 | 4.82 | 11 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 690 | 3.93 | 3.82 | 678 | 3.92 | 3.82 | 679 | 3.92 | 3.79 |
In this scenario, I removed innings from the starting five, but kept the bullpen the same. Removing those innings cost the Yankees a win, thanks to reasonably good projections for Hughes/Kennedy/Aceves. That may or may not be a faulty assumption
Scenario 3: Disaster (or when Kei Igawa strikes)
Let's say Sabathia's workload catches up to him and he misses some time. Let's also say A.J. Burnett misses a chunk of the season too, and let's under-estimate the Wang/Pettitte/Chamberlain innings>
| Pitcher | Role | IP | cairo | chone | hbt | marcel | ||||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 175 | 75 | 3.48 | 3.44 | 72 | 3.41 | 3.33 | 68 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 67 | 3.07 | 3.13 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 150 | 75 | 4.07 | 3.58 | 70 | 3.88 | 3.76 | 69 | 3.85 | 3.76 | 73 | 3.99 | 3.72 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 150 | 73 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 80 | 4.47 | 3.97 | 70 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 67 | 3.83 | 3.89 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 150 | 82 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 78 | 4.31 | 3.93 | 77 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 80 | 4.38 | 3.99 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 100 | 41 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 41 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 38 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 38 | 3.07 | 3.14 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 50 | 27 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 26 | 4.28 | 4.21 | 26 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 27 | 4.61 | 4.19 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 30 | 4.84 | 4.48 | 27 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.68 | 30 | 5.01 | 4.35 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 50 | 29 | 4.83 | 4.37 | 30 | 4.95 | 4.96 | 30 | 4.95 | 4.87 | 23 | 3.86 | 4.34 |
| Kei Igawa | SP9 | 165 | 116 | 5.95 | 5.01 | 94 | 4.77 | 4.82 | 111 | 5.59 | 5.61 | 98 | 5.08 | 4.89 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 20 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 24 | 2.86 | 2.79 | 21 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 25 | 3.09 | 3.08 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 30 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 28 | 3.78 | 3.76 | 27 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 28 | 3.92 | 3.62 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 29 | 4.95 | 4.84 | 25 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 23 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 22 | 3.56 | 4.10 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 26 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 24 | 4.05 | 3.95 | 23 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.22 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 17 | 2.95 | 3.44 | 16 | 2.68 | 3.08 | 19 | 3.11 | 3.70 | 21 | 3.51 | 3.92 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 27 | 5.82 | 4.33 | 20 | 4.25 | 4.02 | 26 | 5.44 | 5.33 | 19 | 3.94 | 3.89 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 25 | 5.29 | 4.67 | 23 | 4.75 | 4.76 | 19 | 4.03 | 4.44 | 19 | 4.09 | 3.90 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 8 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 10 | 4.08 | 4.11 | 10 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 11 | 4.50 | 3.95 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 12 | 4.79 | 3.96 | 12 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 10 | 4.19 | 4.39 | 10 | 4.32 | 4.32 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 740 | 4.30 | 3.95 | 699 | 4.03 | 3.82 | 694 | 4.02 | 4.05 | 682 | 3.95 | 3.87 |
| Pitcher | Role | IP | pecota | zips | Average | ||||||
| R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | R | ERA | FIP | |||
| C.C. Sabathia | SP1 | 175 | 73 | 3.43 | 3.38 | 64 | 3.07 | 3.23 | 70 | 3.29 | 3.28 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP2 | 150 | 70 | 3.82 | 3.73 | 71 | 3.97 | 3.86 | 71 | 3.93 | 3.71 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | SP3 | 150 | 81 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 71 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 74 | 4.11 | 3.98 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 150 | 80 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 80 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 79 | 4.37 | 3.98 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 100 | 38 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 45 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 40 | 3.33 | 3.27 |
| Phil Hughes | SP6 | 50 | 29 | 4.74 | 4.27 | 26 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 27 | 4.45 | 4.10 |
| Ian Kennedy | SP7 | 50 | 28 | 4.71 | 4.52 | 27 | 4.57 | 4.39 | 28 | 4.70 | 4.47 |
| Alfredo Aceves | SP8 | 50 | 30 | 5.03 | 4.84 | 31 | 5.19 | 5.18 | 29 | 4.80 | 4.75 |
| Kei Igawa | SP9 | 165 | 105 | 5.31 | 5.05 | 117 | 5.91 | 5.71 | 107 | 5.43 | 5.17 |
| Mariano Rivera | Cl | 70 | 21 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 19 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 22 | 2.59 | 2.61 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 60 | 27 | 3.76 | 3.84 | 26 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 28 | 3.81 | 3.70 |
| Brian Bruney | SU | 50 | 27 | 4.47 | 4.69 | 28 | 4.63 | 4.90 | 26 | 4.25 | 4.48 |
| Jose Veras | MR | 50 | 22 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 26 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 24 | 4.09 | 4.03 |
| Edwar Ramirez | MR | 50 | 17 | 2.79 | 3.38 | 18 | 3.06 | 3.22 | 18 | 3.02 | 3.43 |
| Phil Coke | MR | 40 | 24 | 4.99 | 4.43 | 24 | 4.91 | 4.72 | 23 | 4.89 | 4.44 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | MR | 40 | 22 | 4.58 | 4.49 | 23 | 4.87 | 4.87 | 22 | 4.60 | 4.51 |
| David Robertson | MR | 20 | 9 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 10 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 10 | 3.98 | 3.69 |
| Mark Melancon | LR | 20 | 11 | 4.34 | 4.09 | 12 | 5.02 | 4.82 | 11 | 4.56 | 4.39 |
| Dan Giese | LR | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total | 1440 | 715 | 4.09 | 3.96 | 718 | 4.16 | 4.05 | 708 | 4.09 | 3.95 |
That costs the Yankees about four wins.
Conclusion
So assuming the Yankees will score 851 runs, here's what we're looking at:
Scenario 1: 851 RS/666 RA, 99-63 Pythagenpat W-L, 97-65 AL East adjusted.
Scenario 2: 851 RS/678 RA, 98-64 Pythagenpat W-L, 96-66 AL East adjusted.
Scenario 3: 851 RS/708 RA, 95-67 Pythagenpat W-L, 93-69 AL East adjusted.
It's possible more could go wrong than that on both offense and defense, but it's Opening Day! Let's be a little optimistic.
Since the possiblities as far as playing time are basically limitless, I've uploaded my projection spreadsheet for anyone who wants to play around with different combinations. The only fields that you have to edit are highlighted in light green. You have to type in the player's name as First Name "space" Last Name, then fill in their plate appearances/innings and then the rest of the sheet should automatically populate. Team totals should add up to around 6500 PA on offense, 1440 innings for pitching.
How awesome is Opening Day?
Friday, April 3, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain
Next up, starters 3-5, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain. I’m heading out soon so I’ll do the rest of the potential starters, bullpen and team wrapup tomorrow/Sunday.
| Chien-Ming Wang | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 189 | 217 | 99 | 91 | 14 | 55 | 96 | 4.33 | 4.02 | 4 | 22 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 181 | 184 | 81 | 77 | 11 | 53 | 92 | 3.83 | 3.85 | 14 | 32 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 178 | 200 | 97 | 87 | 14 | 59 | 95 | 4.37 | 4.16 | 3 | 20 |
| 2008 zips projection | 200 | 213 | 95 | 87 | 13 | 53 | 87 | 3.92 | 3.97 | 13 | 33 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 197 | 201 | 87 | 84 | 11 | 54 | 89 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 15 | 34 |
| 2008 average projection | 189 | 203 | 92 | 85 | 13 | 55 | 92 | 4.06 | 3.97 | 9 | 28 |
| 2008 actual totals | 95 | 90 | 44 | 43 | 4 | 35 | 54 | 4.07 | 3.72 | 5 | 14 |
| difference | -94 | 159% | 79% | 117% | 0.02 | -0.25 | -5 | -14 |
After winning 38 games for the Yankees over 2006 and 2007, Chien-Ming Wang looked to be settling in at the top of the Yankee rotation heading into 2008. Although non-believers continually pointed to his lower than average K rate, his 2008 projectiosn were generally good, expecting him to be close to three wins above a replacement level pitcher, with an ERA around 4.
Wang was basically matching his projections on a rate basis through June 15th. Then came the nonsensical, farcical, absurd, ludicrous, ridiculous, risible debacle known as interleague play. Forced to run the bases, Wang suffered a LisFranc fracture that cost him the rest of the season. Wang missed about 15 starts. Snacks Pontoon made 15 starts. The difference between them if we look at what Wang would have been projected to do over the rest of the season?
Wang
94 IP, 46 R, 11 RSAR
Snacks
80 IP, 53 R, -5 RSAR
That cost the Yankees somewhere around 1.5 wins.
| Andy Pettitte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 199 | 227 | 109 | 101 | 20 | 66 | 132 | 4.57 | 4.17 | -1 | 18 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 188 | 205 | 94 | 85 | 18 | 59 | 135 | 4.07 | 3.95 | 9 | 28 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 176 | 187 | 90 | 83 | 18 | 60 | 117 | 4.22 | 4.25 | 5 | 23 |
| 2008 zips projection | 213 | 228 | 105 | 96 | 20 | 62 | 141 | 4.06 | 3.97 | 11 | 32 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 213 | 242 | 113 | 102 | 20 | 60 | 153 | 4.31 | 3.83 | 5 | 26 |
| 2008 average projection | 198 | 217 | 102 | 93 | 19 | 62 | 135 | 4.25 | 4.03 | 6 | 25 |
| 2008 actual totals | 204 | 233 | 112 | 103 | 19 | 55 | 158 | 4.54 | 3.67 | -1 | 19 |
| difference | 6 | 105% | 115% | 113% | 0.30 | -0.36 | -7 | -6 |
Andy Pettitte was basically projected to eat innings at around an average rate, and if you lok at his final line, he basically did. However, the shape of his performance was pretty volatile. Over his first 22 games he put up an ERA of 3.76 (FIP of 3.60) over 139 innings, averaging 6.3 innings a start. Pettitte finished off with a 6.23 ERA over his last 11 games, averaging 5.9 innings per start. It's interesting to note that Pettitte's FIP was 3.83 over this stretch, but he was giving up lots of hits. After the season it was reported that Pettitte was pitching through soreness. Pettitte's overall line was about 6-7 runs worse than projected.
| Joba Chamberlain | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 65 | 61 | 30 | 28 | 7 | 25 | 75 | 3.88 | 3.45 | 5 | 11 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 37 | 33 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 3.41 | 3.39 | 5 | 8 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 146 | 126 | 60 | 55 | 12 | 55 | 162 | 3.39 | 3.18 | 18 | 33 |
| 2008 zips projection | 134 | 136 | 72 | 66 | 19 | 33 | 121 | 4.43 | 3.98 | 1 | 14 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 55 | 52 | 26 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 48 | 4.09 | 4.09 | 3 | 8 |
| 2008 average projection | 87 | 81 | 40 | 37 | 9 | 29 | 87 | 3.84 | 3.62 | 6 | 15 |
| 2008 actual totals | 100 | 87 | 32 | 29 | 5 | 39 | 118 | 2.60 | 2.66 | 21 | 31 |
| difference | 13 | 217% | 85% | 119% | -1.24 | -0.95 | 15 | 16 |
Joba Chamberlain started off the season in the role that he was meant for, pitching teh 8. The Yankees foolishly moved him into the rotation in June, where he stunk, putting up an ERA of 2.76, fanning 74 in 65.1 innings. Chamberlain walked off the mound during his August 4 start in Texas with what was eventually diagnosed as tendinitis, effectively ending his time in the rotation. Chamberlain returned to his proper role after about a month, pitching teh eight. And this entire blurb is sarcastic, so please don't think I really believe this.
Anyway, Chamberlain pitched better than projected, with an ERA more than a full run lower. He struck out batters at a higher than projected rate and allowed fewer HRs on a rate basis as well.
Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
2009
| Chien-Ming Wang | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 133 | 156 | 71 | 66 | 8 | 42 | 71 | 4.47 | 3.86 | 1 | 14 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 127 | 126 | 57 | 54 | 8 | 41 | 70 | 3.83 | 3.89 | 9 | 22 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 126 | 141 | 69 | 62 | 10 | 42 | 67 | 4.39 | 4.19 | 2 | 14 |
| 2009 tht projection | 132 | 142 | 61 | 57 | 9 | 42 | 64 | 3.88 | 4.07 | 9 | 22 |
| 2009 zips projection | 149 | 159 | 70 | 65 | 7 | 47 | 71 | 3.92 | 3.80 | 10 | 25 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 163 | 170 | 79 | 75 | 10 | 55 | 80 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 6 | 22 |
| 2009 average projection | 138 | 149 | 68 | 63 | 9 | 45 | 71 | 4.11 | 3.98 | 6 | 20 |
| Chien-Ming Wang cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 179 | 172 | 77 | 73 | 8 | 53 | 97 | 3.68 | 3.54 | 16 | 34 |
| 65% | 171 | 171 | 78 | 75 | 9 | 54 | 88 | 3.92 | 3.79 | 11 | 28 |
| Baseline | 163 | 170 | 79 | 75 | 10 | 55 | 80 | 4.16 | 4.04 | 6 | 22 |
| 35% | 147 | 158 | 75 | 72 | 10 | 53 | 68 | 4.40 | 4.29 | 2 | 16 |
| 20% | 130 | 146 | 70 | 67 | 11 | 50 | 57 | 4.64 | 4.54 | -2 | 11 |
Wang's 2009 projections are generally the same as his 2008 numbers, although his innings are suppressed due to his missed time last seeason. The projection systems don't know or care that the reason Wang missed time last year was due to a freak injury so they assume his skill in staying healthy has declined. There's little reason to think Wang won't be able to pitch 180-200 innings in 2009. 200 innings at his average projection makes him worth another nine runs or so above replacement.
| Andy Pettitte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 167 | 185 | 87 | 80 | 15 | 54 | 125 | 4.31 | 3.84 | 4 | 20 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 183 | 206 | 97 | 89 | 18 | 58 | 132 | 4.38 | 3.99 | 3 | 21 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 168 | 187 | 90 | 82 | 17 | 53 | 119 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 2 | 19 |
| 2009 tht projection | 187 | 205 | 96 | 89 | 19 | 57 | 130 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 5 | 23 |
| 2009 zips projection | 195 | 219 | 104 | 96 | 19 | 61 | 138 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 1 | 21 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 210 | 232 | 114 | 104 | 21 | 64 | 150 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 1 | 22 |
| 2009 average projection | 185 | 206 | 98 | 90 | 18 | 58 | 132 | 4.37 | 3.98 | 3 | 21 |
| Andy Pettitte cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 231 | 239 | 114 | 103 | 18 | 61 | 178 | 4.01 | 3.47 | 13 | 36 |
| 65% | 221 | 236 | 115 | 104 | 20 | 62 | 164 | 4.23 | 3.73 | 7 | 29 |
| Baseline | 210 | 232 | 114 | 104 | 21 | 64 | 150 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 1 | 22 |
| 35% | 189 | 216 | 108 | 98 | 21 | 61 | 129 | 4.66 | 4.24 | -3 | 15 |
| 20% | 168 | 198 | 100 | 91 | 21 | 57 | 110 | 4.88 | 4.50 | -7 | 10 |
Pettitte's projections are expecting him to rebound a bit from last year, although to pitch about 20 fewer innings. Seems fair to me.
| Joba Chamberlain | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 101 | 88 | 41 | 38 | 9 | 39 | 112 | 3.39 | 3.30 | 13 | 23 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 85 | 75 | 32 | 29 | 6 | 31 | 88 | 3.07 | 3.14 | 14 | 22 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 124 | 107 | 47 | 43 | 8 | 47 | 133 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 19 | 32 |
| 2009 tht projection | 100 | 82 | 38 | 36 | 8 | 39 | 111 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 14 | 24 |
| 2009 zips projection | 131 | 127 | 59 | 55 | 12 | 52 | 129 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 11 | 24 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 117 | 111 | 49 | 45 | 11 | 40 | 120 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 14 | 25 |
| 2009 average projection | 110 | 98 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 41 | 116 | 3.33 | 3.27 | 14 | 25 |
| Joba Chamberlain cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 129 | 111 | 46 | 42 | 8 | 37 | 144 | 2.93 | 2.65 | 22 | 35 |
| 65% | 123 | 111 | 47 | 44 | 9 | 39 | 132 | 3.19 | 3.00 | 18 | 30 |
| Baseline | 117 | 111 | 49 | 45 | 11 | 40 | 120 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 14 | 25 |
| 35% | 106 | 105 | 47 | 43 | 11 | 39 | 103 | 3.70 | 3.71 | 9 | 20 |
| 20% | 94 | 98 | 45 | 41 | 11 | 37 | 87 | 3.96 | 4.07 | 6 | 15 |
Joba's bullpen time screws with his projected playing time. All the projections expect him to be very good, but over fewer inings than the Yankees are hoping to use him for. Pro-rate his average projection to 150 innings and he'd be worth about one more win more valuable.
Value
Wang
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 20 | 2.0 |
| 2009 Salary | $5,000,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $5,962,594 | $962,594 |
| $3,500,000 | $6,956,360 | $1,956,360 |
| $4,000,000 | $7,950,126 | $2,950,126 |
| $4,500,000 | $8,943,892 | $3,943,892 |
| $5,000,000 | $9,937,657 | $4,937,657 |
| $5,500,000 | $10,931,423 | $5,931,423 |
| $6,000,000 | $11,925,189 | $6,925,189 |
Pettitte
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 21 | 2.1 |
| 2009 Salary | $12,000,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $6,334,465 | ($5,665,535) |
| $3,500,000 | $7,390,210 | ($4,609,790) |
| $4,000,000 | $8,445,954 | ($3,554,046) |
| $4,500,000 | $9,501,698 | ($2,498,302) |
| $5,000,000 | $10,557,442 | ($1,442,558) |
| $5,500,000 | $11,613,187 | ($386,813) |
| $6,000,000 | $12,668,931 | $668,931 |
Chamberlain
| Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 25 | 2.5 |
| 2009 Salary | $432,575 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $7,583,456 | $7,150,881 |
| $3,500,000 | $8,847,365 | $8,414,790 |
| $4,000,000 | $10,111,274 | $9,678,699 |
| $4,500,000 | $11,375,184 | $10,942,609 |
| $5,000,000 | $12,639,093 | $12,206,518 |
| $5,500,000 | $13,903,002 | $13,470,427 |
| $6,000,000 | $15,166,911 | $14,734,336 |
Wang and Chamberlain are still under team control, so they would rate as more valuable than a free agent of similar talent, so keep that in mind. I've assumed Pettitte will hit all his incentives so am showing his full salary and bonuses. If he misses time, it will affect both his value and cost, so his compensation should generally be close to his value.
Conclusion
The spotlight's going to be on Sabathia and Burnett, but how Wang, Pettitte and Joba do will probably be just as important for the Yankees chances in 2009. I like the chances of all three to match or exceed their projections, especially Joba.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
NY Daily News: Chien-Ming Wang returns to mound for Yanks for 1st time since foot injury
But there were no flashbacks to June 15, no grim views of Wang limping after tearing a tendon and spraining the Lisfranc ligament in his right foot while running the bases in Houston. Wang did not bat - the Yankees called the Astros to ask that the designated hitter be used for the game, which normally would be played under National League rules - and he completed a two-inning stint without incident.
A healthy Wang would be a big boost in 2009.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
NY Daily News: CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett fuel hopes for a mound rebound for Yankees
Sabathia threw to Jorge Posada, while Burnett tossed to Jose Molina. Joba Chamberlain also unleashed fastballs in the same bullpen, giving the Yankees a glimpse of the powerful arms they hope to send to the mound three out of every five days this season.
Throw in the return of two-time 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang from injury and the experience and guile of Andy Pettitte, and the Yankees just might have their strongest starting five since 2003 - the last year they made the World Series.
Pitcher 2008 Avg Fastball Velocity*
Sabathia 93.7 mph
Burnett 94.3 mph
Wang 91.8 mph
Chamberlain 95.0 mph
(*from Fangraphs.com)
When’s the last time the Yankees had four legitimate 90+ arms in their rotation?
Monday, December 22, 2008
So Who’s Got the Best Rotation in the AL East Now (CHONE edition)?
One of the things I will freely acknowledge is that my CAIRO projection system is somewhat limited (as are all projection systems). That’s why I like to look at lots of different projections to get a feel for what other formulas and algorithms predict. Because of this, I’m going to look at the same question as I did yesterday regarding the best rotation in the AL East, but this time I’ll use Sean Smith’s recently posted CHONE projections instead of CAIRO.
One difference here is that Sean’s projections are not neutral, but are adjusted for park and defense. RSAR are still comparable since they’re park-adjusted, but keep the park and defense impact in mind when looking at the raw numbers like ERA.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement-level
IP/S: Innings pitched per start
CHONE is more conservative than CAIRO on projected innings pitched both per game started and over a full season, so I had to adjust some pitchers innings up and there are more innings from the sixth starters to get each team to 162 starts. Also, CHONE’s replacement level is lower (worse) than CAIRO’s, so the RSAR totals are bigger here, although it’s all relative so it’s not a problem.
CHONE likes Boston’s rotation a little more than CAIRO, primarily Beckett and Matsuzaka. Overall, CHONE says the Red Sox rotation should save 163 runs above replacement level using my estimated playing time.
Tampa is basically even with Boston at 162 RSAR, although David Price’s projection is a lot more pessimistic here. That’s mitigated by better projections for Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine and Garza though.
Lower innings across the board here for everyone, but the Yankee rotation still looks like the class of the AL East with these numbers, although the gap narrows from the 6 wins I had with CAIRO to 4 wins.
And here’s a final comparison of the CHONE totals.
Looks like further encouraging data to me, at least on the starting pitching front.
Reader zellyanks91 emailed me an interesting blog entry he wrote about his interaction with Phil Hughes on a baseball card forum. Hughes seems like a really good guy from reading this.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
So Who’s Got the Best Rotation in the AL East Now?
With the Yankees’ signings of C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, many pundits are saying they now have the best starting rotation in the AL East. Let’s use CAIRO to see if that’s actually true or not. With all due respect to Baltimore and Toronto, I’m leaving them out of this analysis.
Here’s a look at Boston, New York and Tampa’s neutral CAIRO projections. These are not adjusted for the AL, for park, or for defense in order to have a level playing field for comparison. The neutral league I use is 2% worse than the AL. For now I’m assuming good health for every team, so I’m using only the top six starters on each team’s depth chart and pro-rating the teams to 162 starts.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement-level
IP/S: Innings pitched per start
Jon Lester’s projection in particular is probably too pessismistic since it includes his 2006 and 2007 which were severly impacted by his illness. Still, until we have more data we shouldn’t expect him to continue to pitch as well as he did in 2008, although I’d probably bet on him to be around his 65% projection (neutral: 3.81 ERA, 30 RSAR). Matsuzaka’s 2008 ERA was way out of line with his peripherals, and CAIRO expects him to regress back towards those peripherals quite a bit in ‘09, as do I. The ERA projections go up once you move the pitchers to the AL and Fenway, but this is a pretty good rotation.
Obviously, Tampa’s a media darling now after their meteoric rise in 2008, although several statheads saw it coming beforehand. They also look to have a pretty solid rotation now, fronted by James Shields and Scott Kazmir. Edwin Jackson’s gone, replaced by David Price, whose projection is based on a single year’s data and is probably not very useful. He could be a lot better, or he could be worse, but he’s definitely got the talent to be a difference-maker in Tampa’s rotation.
Yeah, adding C.C. and A.J. looks pretty sweet on paper here. I’m including Andy Pettitte here based on this article that says Pettitte’s return is ‘inevitable’. Joba’s projection is probably too optimistic, but he’s a bad-ass regardless.
Assuming health out of Burnett, Chamberlain, Wang and Hughes, this rotation projects to blow away Boston and Tampa, to the tune of 6 wins above replacement. Part of that is in a better rate performance (ERA of 3.72 vs. 4.19 and 4.24), but there’s also an important factor here that could have a cascade effect. The Yankee rotation projects to have four separate pitchers who would average 6.2 to 6.9 innings per start. None of the other teams have more than one such pitcher. That means fewer bullpen innings, which helps a) rest the pen b) keep the ball away from the worse pitchers in the back of the pen.
Of course, I’ll again reiterate that this assumes good health which is a massive assumption, although the same holds in varying extents for Tampa and Boston. I’d also be interested in seeing what other projection systems besides CAIRO say.
Here’s a final comparison of the totals for each of the three teams.
This doesn’t mean the Yankees should be favored to win the AL East by any means. We have to look at the bullpens, offenses and defenses and how they all fit together. Before doing that though I’d assume Boston is still the AL East favorite, with the Yankees probably ahead of Tampa now, but a lot can change over the next three months. Now, if the Yankees can sign Teixeira, they probably jump ahead of Boston.
On a completely unrelated note, Sean Smith has opened a new website for his CHONE projections. Sean’s projections are some of the better ones out there, and are completely free. You can check it out at baseballprojection.com
Sunday, November 16, 2008
If the 2009 Season Started On November 16, 2008
It’d be pretty damn cold for baseball, but I thought it would be interesting to look at how the Yankees project right now, prior to any free agent signings. So here are the CAIRO projections for the presumed starting nine and for the pitching staff.
BR: Raw batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement
RS: Runs saved defensively at listed position
WAR: Wins above replacement level
For now the bench is set to replacement level, although that could change. The playing time for the starting nine is probably a little optimistic, but the offseason is the time for optimism, right?
So as presently constituted, the Yankees look like a team that should score around 830 runs next season if they don’t add any more offense. They also look to be about a win below average defensively, which is much better than last season. Brett Gardner’s defensive projection is probably too generous, but that could be countered by Nick Swisher’s 1B defense if the scouting reports are more accurate than his zone rating. Melky Cabrera and Gardner are basically projected to be worth the same in total, so swapping one with the other shouldn’t make a ton of difference on virtual paper.
The offense may very likely not change this offseason, but the pitching will very likely change quite a bit.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level pitcher
WAR: Wins above replacement level
I am trying to be pessimistic with the pitching staff on purpose, so I’m using the players’ projected innings rather than adjusting for 2009 expectations (ie, Joba pitching 117 innings instead of around 140). As a squad, the Yankees look to allow around 760 runs with the pitching staff as currently constituted. Obviously, more innings by Chamberlain, Wang and Hughes could fix that somewhat. The releiver numbers aren’t adjusted for leverage, so that’s another area where they could see a little boost. The current Yankee defense is already included in the pitcher projections, so we don’t need to add the below-average defense projection in.
A team that would score 828 runs and allow 761 would have a PythagenPat winning percentage of .540, which is equivalent to an 88 win team. If you add C.C. Sabathia and his projected 229 innings to the mix, taking away Kei Igawa and reducing Aceves’s and Kennedy’s innings, this is how the staff would look.
With the same offense, that’s a 93 win PythagenPat team, although given the strength of the AL East, we would probably want to knock that down by a few wins.
We can play the ‘what if they sign _____?’ game now, so if you’d like to get a feel for how much adding certain players would be worth, ask in the comments.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Taiwan News: Taiwan pride New York Yankees pitcher Wang Chien-ming returns home for 2 months
Baseball star Wang dressed in hip-hop costumes returned home after a season cut short by injury. Few hours after his arrival, Wang changed his costume to a more formal one.
Hip-hop costumes? What about the kids?
Friday, October 24, 2008
Can the Yankees afford Sabathia AND Teixeira?
I’ve been having pipedreams of the Yankees signing both Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia, but can they realistically afford it? Let’s take a look.
Using the data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Yankee payroll was around $210 million in 2008.
If the Yankees buy out Jason Giambi’s 2009 option, it will cost them $5M. when they buy out Carl Pavano it will cost them an additional $1.95M. Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Kyle Farnsworth and Ivan Rodriguez all come off the books.
Let’s assume they pick up Damaso Marte’s $6M option, and that everyone who doesn’t have a contract for 2009 but is still team property gets a 20% raise. The Yankees are left with a payroll of around $152M for 2009. Although the Yankees supposedly want to lower payroll, I think they would go back up to last year’s level for the right players, so that means they have $58 million to play with.
If they sign Sabathia for $25M and Teixeira for $23M, that probably means they would only bring back one of Pettitte or Moose, although they have another $26M off the books in 2010 with the end of the Damon/Matsui contracts, so a little juggling of the contracts could conceivably mean the Yankees could afford to bring back Moose AND Pettitte while still signing Teixiera and Sabathia.
If those are the only moves they make this offseason, CAIRO says 850 runs scored is a reasonable offensive projection, even with some combination of Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera in CF. Bring back Pettitte and Moose and adding Sabathia combined with the return of a healthy Wang has CAIRO seeing 710 runs allowed as a reasonable pitching/defense projection. That works out to a 95 win Pythagenpat record.
Is that good enough? I guess it depends on what Tampa Bay and Boston do this offseason, but it’s at least close.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Starting Pitching Edition)
Although Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy disappointed this season, overall the pitching staff was not nearly the biggest problem on the team. Projecting pitching kind of sucks, so when I wrote this entry back in March, I looked at two different scenarios. Scenario 1 was more optimistic about pitcher health, Scenario 2 added in more missed time and more scrub time, although I had no idea that the Yanks would go back to Snacks at some point.
For the player comparisons I’m going to use the optimistic scenarios, then at the end I’ll also look at the pessimistic one on a team-wide level. I decided to break the pitching up by starters and relievers, so here’s the starting pitching part.
Scenario 1
FR: FIP converted to runs allowed
FIP: Fielding independent-pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher.
I think a lot of us took Chien-Ming Wang for granted. No, he’s not as good as C.C. Sabathia or Johan Santana. News flash, hardly anyone is. Is he an ace? Well, he’s one of the top 30 starters in baseball. Whether that makes him an ace or not is open to interpretation I suppose.
Wang pitched right around where he was projected to, rate-wise. The problem is he got hurt and only pitched 95 innings, which cost the Yankees 13 runs. Thankfully it’s not an arm injury and Wang should be back at full strength next year. If you are wondering how the Yankees are going to move from 89 wins to 95 or so, here’s one of those missing wins(hopefully).
Thanks to a dreadful end to his season, it’s easy to forget that Pettite pitched well for a large part of 2008. Through July 26 he had an ERA of 3.76. It didn’t appear to be a fluke, as his FIP was 3.68 and his xFIP was 3.58 through that point.
Then, the wheels seemed to come off over his last 12 games, as Pettitte gave up 50 runs in 71 innings, an RA of 6.34. Interestingly, his FIP was only 3.72 and his xFIP was only 4.03 over this stretch. He just gave up a lot more hits on balls in play. This period coincided with a reported sore shoulder, so it’s possible Pettitte still has something left in the tank. I’m still not sure if I’d bring him back or not, although a lot of that depends on if Mike Mussina retires. Anyhoo, Pettitte was about six runs worse than expected.
Phil Hughes’s 2008 probably could have gone a little better. Instead of 160 good innings, the Yankees got 34 mostly awful ones. Hughes suffered a rib injury early in the year that supposedly affected his mechanics. When it got diagnosed it led to him being shelved for most of the year, although he ended the season on a positive note with eight innings of two run ball against Toronto in his last start of the year. Hughes was a 25 run disappointment compared to his projection.
As disappointing as Hughes was, Ian Kennedy was worse. Like Hughes, Kennedy failed to win a start. Unlike Hughes, his peripherals don’t show much promise, and he never really had Hughes’s ceiling. While his minor league track record is impressive, I have a feeling the Yankees have soured on Kennedy and there’s a very good chance that if he makes an impact in MLB it’ll be in another uniform. Kennedy was 29 runs worse than expectations.
After a whole bunch of disappointments comes one of the two best stories of the Yankee season IMO. Mike Mussina had a horrible 2007, putting up an ERA of 5.15 and for all intents and purposes he looked like he was cooked. When he started the year 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA, it seemed like just a matter of time before he was going to be out of the rotation. Some dolt even wrote a blog entry about it.
A funny thing happened though. Moose won his next five starts, putting up an ERA of 2.76 and saving his spot in the rotation. From there, he finished the year by going 14-6 with a 3.17 ERA, culminating in his 20th win of the season on the season’s final day. Most of us know that win/loss records are not really a good indicator of a pitcher’s skill since it’s so heavily dependent on run support, but we do know that Moose was great. Instead of being worth 10 runs above replacement, he was worth 40.
I don’t know if Moose is going to retire. I’d love to have him back for another season, even though I’d expect him to decline a bit next year.
Unlike Hughes and Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain kicked ass as a starter. Unfortunately, he came up with tendinitis in Texas and that cost him about a month. When he came back he went back to the bullpen since the Yankees felt he wouldn’t be able to stretched back out into a starter in time. This gave the ‘Joba should pitch teh eight’ clowns more ammunition for their silly battle, but the good news is that Joba wants to start, Joe Girardi wants him to start, and Brian Cashman wants him to start. Anyone with a brain should understand that 200 innings of Joba as a starter is more valuable than 80 innings of Joba as a reliever, even if you factor in leverage.
Oops, I went off on a tangent. Since we only had one season of data to project Joba in 2008, his projection was pretty conservative. Despite pitching 35 fewer starter innings than expected, he was four runs better than projected.
Since we’re looking at the optimistic scenario, I don’t really have anything to compare every one else who started this year with, but here’s how they did collectively.
Update: Fixed the two charts below.
And here’s how it all looks in terms of RSAR (assuming replacement level for all non-projected pitchers)
So we have the starters collectively being worth 67 - 6 RSAR, a total of 61. The optimistic projection had the Yankees’ starters giving up 498 runs, and the pessimistic had them giving up 518 runs. Yankee starters actually gave up 528 runs. So overall, the difference between the optimistic projection of the starting pitching and what actually happened is -30 runs, and between the pessimistic projection and what actually happened it’s -10 runs. I guess I need to be more pessimistic next year.
One last thing, if you look at the ERA compared to FIP for the Yankee starters, you’ll see a fairly significant difference, on the order of around 60 runs. FIP regresses BABIP to average (aka, an average defense), so this ties into the -40 defense the Yankees played this year. There’s still a 20 run difference, which is most likely an issue with hit location. According to the team stats page at the Hardball Times, the Yankees didn’t give up a higher percentage of line drives than the average team.
So you can add starting pitching to the 2008 Yankees’ list of underperformances, although it’s not nearly as much to blame as the offense is. That won’t stop some people from blaming Hughes/Kennedy and the non-Santana trade of course…
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy
My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me. Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral. Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced. The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it.
BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.
What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores. Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.
Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.
Here’s the offense.
Here are the starting pitchers.
Here are the relievers.
And here’s everyone.
These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that. Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.
C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6
So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated). Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.
These numbers are against average, not replacement level. Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.
This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA. An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.
Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.
And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.
And the bottom 25.
Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
tRA and the 2008 Yankees
By way of Baseball Think Factory, I was introduced to a new stat called tRA. What is tRA? It’s a way to evaluate pitchers based on their peripheral stats and batted ball types allowed, developed by Graham MacAree who writes for Lookout Landing. He also has a new site called StatCorner which looks like it’s going to be a cool site for more in-depth statistical analysis.
What tRA does is assign run values to each event a pitcher allows, but removing the defense. It’s more in depth than FIP or DIPS which regress BABIP to league average, because it makes use of an important factor that FIP and DIPS ignore. All batted ball types are NOT created equal. A pitcher who allows more line drives should allow a higher BABIP, all other things being equal. So ground balls, fly balls, and line drives are given average run values for those events.
tRA also assigns out values for each event that a pitcher allows. The events are park-adjusted and out values are for what an average defense would do, so what tRA should give us is the net performance of a pitcher in a neutral park with an average defense behind him, but with more information than something like FIP, xFIP, or DIPS gives us. If you want to read more about the actual run values and out values and park adjustments, it’s all discussed at this link.
Here’s what tRA says for the 2008 Yankees.
RV: Run value of all events.
OV: Out value of all events.
tRSAA: Runs saved above average using tRA
tRSAR: Runs saved above replacement using tRA
tWAR: Wins above replacement using tRA (tRSAR/10)
This doesn’t account for leverage, but Mo is still the best pitcher on the Yankees by this measure. The Yankee pitching staff scores decently by this measure, but when you factor in a team defense that’s 48 runs below average overall by zone rating, you go from a run prevention unit that’s 15 wins better than replacement to one that’s 10 wins better.
And lastly, here’s how the AL teams stack up using this measure.
Seems about right. The White Sox raw pitching stats may look middling, but when you factor in their ballpark they may be the best pitching staff in the league. Toronto and Tampa have them beat in ERA+, but that’s most likely a function of defense (Toronto is +48!!! by zone rating as far as runs saved, and Tampa is +8, the White Sox are +3).
I think this a pretty cool way to look at pitching in more depth, but I’d be interested to see what everyone else thinks. The methodology certainly seems sound to me.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Baseball Intellect - Trade Review: the Impact of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte
Nady has a high leg kick as he strides into foot plant. Just before planting, his knee twists open a bit, which can cause him to occasionally open up too soon. He also plants his front foot more in the direction of the pitcher. Usually I like hitters to plant more in a 45-degree angle because it’s easier to keep the hips closed and rotate firmly on a front leg. However, Nady compensates for the way he plants by rotating to the point where he is rolling over his front foot, so he is still getting the hip rotation he needs.
Here’s an interesting look at Nady and Marte from a scouting perspective. Of particular interest is a subtle change in Marte’s mechanics which has helped both his control and his HR rate.
Update: Ny Times: Posada Will Have Surgery and Be Out Six Months.
That’s not really newsworthy, but in the link there’s some good news:
MATSUI TAKES SOME SWINGS Wearing a brace on his inflamed left knee, Hideki Matsui took 20 swings off a tee before Monday’s game. Matsui said he felt fine and that barring any setbacks, he hoped to begin a rehabilitation assignment in a week or two. Matsui can take his time, because he could have surgery on the knee in November and still be ready for spring training.
WANG’S CAST COMING OFF Chien-Ming Wang said he expected to have the cast removed from his right foot on Tuesday, the first significant step in a monotonous recovery from the injury he sustained June 15. Wang will be on crutches for another week as he starts to walk again, and he may begin throwing while seated in a chair.
Asked if he thought he had enough time to return to the Yankees this season, Wang said, “I’ll try to do it.”
Wang said he spent most of his time watching television and playing basketball on PlayStation. He summed up his rehab in one word: “Boring.”
UPDATE ON HUGHES AND PAVANO Because of bad weather in Tampa, Fla., Phil Hughes and Carl Pavano are now scheduled to pitch on Tuesday for Class A Charleston. They will be limited to two innings, or roughly 35 pitches, but because of the nature of their injuries—a fractured rib for Hughes, an elbow operation for Pavano—Hughes has a greater chance to contribute this season.
“Hughes has a chance to fly through his rehab more so than Pavano, because Pavano’s coming back from elbow reconstruction, and that has a lot more obstacles,” Brian Cashman said. “Phil Hughes has no elbow or shoulder issues. Carl’s going to have a tougher road.”
Getting Matsui and Wang back would be huge. Huge I tell ya.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Fractured Wang
Well, the news is in on Chien-Ming Wang's injury, and it's not good for Yankee fans. I will resist the temptation to bash the insipid inter-league play that led to this injury. Instead, let's look at the impact of this injury.The Yankees have 92 games left this year. Divide by five and you get 18 starts for each slot in the rotation. For all intents and purposes, I'm going to assume that Wang is done for the year. First, let's look at what a healthy Wang would be expected to do over his remaining starts, using his 2008 projection weighed at 70% and his 2008 actual performance weighed at 30%. For the numbers that follow, I am assuming a replacement level pitcher would put up an ERA of 5.58.
| Healthy Wang | ERA | G | IP/G | IP | ER | RAR | WAR |
| Wang | 3.90 | 18 | 6.70 | 121 | 52 | 23 | 2.3 |
Wang's revised projection was for a 3.90 ERA. He's averaging 6.7 innings per game this year, so I assumed that is what he would have done over the rest of the season. So in 18 starts, Wang would give the team 121 innings and save 23 runs above a replacement level pitcher (RAR). Divide that by 10 to get the wins above replacement (2.3 WAR).
So those 18 starts and 121 innings have to go somewhere. Let's assume they're split over Dan Giese, IPK, and Phil Hughes.
| G/K/H/R | ERA | G | IP/G | IP | ER | RAR | WAR |
| Giese | 4.21 | 8 | 5.00 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Kennedy | 5.35 | 7 | 5.00 | 35 | 21 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Hughes | 5.42 | 3 | 5.00 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Repl Level P | 5.58 | 31 | 1.00 | 31 | 19 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 5.04 | ---- | ---- | 121 | 68 | 7 | 0.7 |
Giese's MLE and projection are probably overly optimistic, but this is supposed to be objective. I'm assuming here that none of this trio will be able to average more than 5 innings a start. Kennedy and Hughes both projected better coming into 2008 but at this point I'm going to assume they will be about a hair better than replacement level. So there's a shortfall of 31 innings that I am going to estimate will be picked up by a replacement level reliever, although it's possible one of the kids on the farm could improve on that. So in this case, the Yankees lose about 1.6 wins by going from Wang to this group of pitchers.
If Giese is replacement level, then the Yankees are basically down the 2.3 wins that Wang would have given them.
Lastly, since we'll be hearing and reading about it for the next few weeks, here's what C.C. Sabathia would be projected to do.
| Scenario 1 | ERA | G | IP/G | IP | ER | RAR | WAR |
| Sabathia | 3.70 | 18 | 6.90 | 124 | 51 | 26 | 2.6 |
Sabathia's a little more durable than Wang on a per game basis, so he'd be a slight upgrade if he was acquired.
So yeah, this sucks, but it's probably not as dire as it may seem right now.
Lohud.com - Abraham: Wang out for at least 10 weeks
This from the Yankees:
INJURY UPDATE ON RHP CHIEN-MING WANG
RHP Chien-Ming Wang was examined today at New York Presbyterian Hospital Columbia Medical Center by Yankees Team Physician, Dr. Stuart Hershon and Dr. Jason Greisberg, Foot and Ankle Specialist.
Imaging studies revealed a mid-foot sprain of the Lisfranc ligament of the right foot and a partial tear of the peroneal longus tendon of the right foot.
Wang will be on crutches and wear a protective boot for a minimum of six weeks.
Well, this sucks.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 15 Happy Father’s Day Edition
On May 19th, I took a look at the Yankees' schedule through the All Star Break. It appeared, at least on paper, that the Yankees were entering a fairly soft part of their schedule. Here's how they've done since then, comparing their expected W/L record using Bill James's log 5 method for calculating expected winning percentage and their actual performance.| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.6 | 2.4 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 5.2 | 2.8 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.8 | 3.2 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 6.3 | 3.7 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.9 | 4.1 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 7.4 | 4.6 | 8 | 4 |
| 2-Jun | @Twins | 8.0 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 |
| 3-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.6 | 5.4 | 8 | 6 |
| 4-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.2 | 5.8 | 9 | 6 |
| 5-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.8 | 6.2 | 10 | 6 |
| 6-Jun | Royals | 10.4 | 6.6 | 10 | 7 |
| 7-Jun | Royals | 11.1 | 6.9 | 11 | 7 |
| 8-Jun | Royals | 11.8 | 7.2 | 12 | 7 |
| 9-Jun | Royals | 12.4 | 7.6 | 12 | 8 |
| 10-Jun | @Athletics | 12.9 | 8.1 | 13 | 8 |
| 11-Jun | @Athletics | 13.2 | 8.8 | 13 | 9 |
| 12-Jun | @Athletics | 13.7 | 9.3 | 14 | 9 |
| 13-Jun | @Astros | 14.3 | 9.7 | 15 | 9 |
| 14-Jun | @Astros | 14.8 | 10.2 | 16 | 9 |
| 15-Jun | @Astros | 15.4 | 10.6 | 17 | 9 |
So the Yankees have played a little less than two wins better than expected over the last 26 games. They've picked up 1.5 games in the division, and have scored 148 runs while allowing 118. So that's 5.7 runs scored per game and 4.5 runs allowed per game, equivalent to 922 runs scored and 735 runs allowed over a full season.
It's also a Pythagenpat winning percentage of 60.7%, which is equivalent to 16 wins over 26 games and 98 wins over 162 games.
Today's blowout 13-0 victory over Houston also gives them a positive run differential for the first time since May 10.
That's the good news. The bad news is that because of the ridiculous farce that is inter-league play, Chien-Ming Wang injured his foot doing something he shouldn't have been doing. Right now it's being called a sprained foot. Wang will have tests on his foot when the team returns to New York. Let's hope it's not too serious, as Wang appears to have recovered from a rough stretch to throw 12.1 innings of one run ball over his last two starts.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Wanging Ugly
Chien-Ming Wang was effective for the first time in several weeks as the Yankees beat Oakland 3-2 1 last night. Wang threw seven and one-third innings and allowed one run, but he didn’t really pitch all that well. He allowed seven hits and two walks, but his ball/strke ratio was an unimpressive 37/43. That’s 51.8% strikes, Wang is usually around 62%. Wang allowed the leadoff man to reach in every inning but the eighth, but the Yankees turned four double plays behind him to get out of several jams. Still, the bottom line was positive after four straight clunkers where Wang allowed 24 runs in 23.2 innings.
The offense didn’t do much, but Oakland’s a good run prevention team so we should probably be happy with three runs. Darrell Rasner goes tonight against Justin Duchscherer, who’s quietly putting together a monster season in his first year as a starter.
Monday, June 9, 2008
WOE No More?
From the beginning of the season the Yankees’ offense has been a major disappointment, leading to many of calling them WOE for Worst Offense Ever. The team scored 968 runs last year and brought back just about everyone who had a part in that. Obviously some decline from Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez was to be expected, but I had that estimated at around a 45 run drop, which means they should stilll have been a 900 run offense. Instead, through May 22 the Yankees as a team were hitting an underwhelming .256/.323/.404 and had scored 191 runs in 48 games, an average of 3.98 runs a game, which works out to 645 runs over a full season.
Offense is down in the AL by about 10% this year, but even accounting for that that’s still a shortfall of 175 runs or so.
Since then, they’ve hit .322/.382/.486 as a team and have scored 100 runs in 17 games, which is 5.9 runs per game and would be the equivalent of scoring 952 runs in a season. Obviously, the fact that they’ve been doing their damage against teams like Seattle and Kansas City is one reason for the improvement. The weather changing could be another factor as well. Still, we should be happy to see them starting to hit like they were expected to all season. With the return of Jorge Posada the team is complete again, and that should bode well for the offense to continue playing well, even if they aren’t going to hit .322 for the rest of the season.
Although they’ve crept above .500 the Yanks still have a negative run differential. However, over the stretch from May 23 through yesterday they have a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .568, which is roughly equivalent to a 92 win pace. That may be superficially encouraging but it needs to be tempered with the fact that the Yankees are playing through an easy part of their schedule.
The good news is Mike Mussina and Darrell Rasner have continued to pitch effectively and Joba Chamberlain’s building up his stamina to hopefully give the team a third effective starter. The bad news is that Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte have been awful lately and there doesn’t seem to be an explanation for why. If those two can’t get right, this team isn’t contending. More than the bullpen or the offense, that’s the biggest problem facing the team right now IMO.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Grumble Grumble
Mariano Rivera finally gave up a run last night, and it ended up being the game-winner in Tampa Bay’s 2-1 win over the Yankees. I don’t blame Mo for the loss though, I blame yet another pathetic showing by an offense that has been the single biggest reason behind the Yankees’ underperformance this year.
Chien-Ming Wang pitched pretty well and Hideki Matsui hit a game-tying HR in the top of the ninth to give the Yankees a glimmer of hope. I wish I could say I was surprised at the loss, but I completely expected it. The Yankees have a very legitimate chance at getting swept now with Tampa’s two best pitchers lined up for the third and fourth games of the series.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Say it ain’t so, Joba
With two outs in the top of the eighth inning one swing from David Dellucci shattered everyone’s view of Joba Chamberlain. Or so the Germans would have us believe.
Joba had his worst inning as a Yankee last night by allowing three runs to the Cleveland Indians, blowing a 3-2 lead and earning the young hurler his first blown save. After walking Sizemore to lead off the inning, Joba allowed a sac bunt from Carroll followed by another walk to Peralta. He then got Garko to fly out. Future Hall of Fame manager Eric Wedge then made the decision to pinch hit Dellucci for Gutierrez. My father can attest to me saying at that point, “I have a bad feeling about Dellucci here.” After fouling off a 95mph fastball, Dellucci got under a 96mph fastball thrown up and in, lifting the pitch over the right field wall for a 3-run home run. In classic WOE fashion, the Yankees failed to score any runs off Lewis in the eighth or Betancourt in the ninth and lost the game 5-3.
While many are now second-guessing Girardi’s decision to stick with Joba after two walks in the inning and the left-handed Dellucci stepping to the plate, I can’t really blame the new manager. While Joba did seem to struggle in the inning, Dellucci is hardly among the elite hitters in the league. Joba certainly has the stuff to compete against a hitter with a lifetime OPS+ of 101. I would argue that the pitch location may have been less than ideal with the short porch and Dellucci being a pull-hitter. Pitching him away may have been the better game plan. But no matter. He threw heat up and in and Dellucci turned on it. Take it and move on.
The idea of trying to find a “silver lining” out of Joba’s outing came up in the game thread. I would argue that there really is one. Joba’s blown save last night was a bad loss in his young career, no question. But it was hardly something that should change anyone’s perception of his talent. If anything, it will serve as a learning experience. What doesn’t break you makes you stronger. He’s going to fail again. It happens. Last night’s loss will help him get over future bad outings that much easier. Better he experience this first big blow(non midge-related) now in early May instead of late September.
One other positive to glean from the game was Pettitte’s performance. Aside from one bad pitch to Peralta in the fourth, he threw an excellent game. With Hughes on the DL and Kennedy sorting himself out in the minors, this team will need Pettitte, Wang, and Mussina to continue putting together performances like they have been.
Tomorrow, Cliff Lee (7-05-0, 0.96) faces off against Wang (6-0, 3.00) in what should be a tight one.
Courant.com: Yankees Rotation Forced To Regroup
NEW YORK - Though the Yankees (17-16) showed significant fight over the weekend, shaking their hitting funk and sweeping the Mariners to recoup the three losses to the Tigers last week, there are serious questions about their starting rotation.
At the moment, it’s Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang - then everything goes wrong. It was enough to have co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner, who was talked out of trading Hughes and Kennedy for Johan Santana, doubting the Yankees can make the playoffs in his most recent rant.
“You’d like for things to go exactly the way you planned it,” general manager Brian Cashman said, “but if you truly have a strong organization, then when someone struggles, there is going to be someone else you can turn to.”
On Sunday, that candidate was Darrell Rasner, a career minor leaguer who replaced Kennedy and threw six innings to get a win. So for this week Rasner’s in, but a No.5 starter hasn’t been identified, with Kei Igawa the logical but far-from-inspiring option.
You can’t be upset with what Wang, Mussina, and Pettitte have given the team. Everything Moose has provided is almost enough to make you forget about the Hughes and Kennedy starts. Almost. But if Kei Igawa ends up starting for this team at any point this season it may get ugly. Really ugly.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Wang and Melky
Behind a Melky Cabrera HR and seven scoreless innings by Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees beat the Indians 1-0 yesterday. On a team that's been loaded with underachievers to this point, Cabrera and Wang have been great.I wondered if Melky had changed anything in his approach that could be verified statistically, so I used the ever valuable fangraphs.com to see what his secondary stats may show.
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | IsoD | IsoP | BB/PA | K/PA | P/PA | LD% | GB% | FB% | BABIP | xBABIP |
| 2006 | .280 | .360 | .391 | .080 | .111 | .107 | .113 | 3.656 | 17.2% | 49.5% | 33.3% | .310 | .292 |
| 2007 | .273 | .327 | .391 | .054 | .118 | .070 | .111 | 3.670 | 19.7% | 51.2% | 29.2% | .301 | .317 |
| 2008 | .291 | .356 | .506 | .065 | .215 | .099 | .132 | 4.077 | 18.8% | 46.4% | 34.8% | .290 | .308 |
Melky's recovered some of his 2006 walk rate after dipping last year. He's also striking out more frequently, which may not necessarily be a bad thing if it means he's working deeper counts. He's seeing about 0.4 pitches more per plate appearances, which tells me he's not necessarily swinging at the first hittable pitch but perhaps is being more selective and looking for a pitch he can drive. He's hitting more fly balls than he hit last year, and fewer ground balls and line drives. Interestingly, if you use the LD% +.12 for his expected batting average on balls in play he shows as being slightly unlucky, so he's not necessarily overperforming right now.
As always, small sample size caveats apply here, but we should expect 23 year old players to improve. So go Melky!
Moving on to Chien-Ming Wang. The constant knock has been Wang's low K rate. I've shown that he does enough other stuff well that he was not a fluke, but what if he's added strikeouts to his repetoire?
| Year | HR/BF | BB/BF | K/BF | GB% | FB% | LD% | FB% | Avg Vel | SL% | Avg Vel | CH% | Avg Vel | SF% | Avg Vel |
| 2005 | 1.9% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 63.9% | 22.0% | 14.1% | 77.9% | 92.0 mph | 12.9% | 85.4 mph | 7.5% | 82.6 mph | 1.6% | 85.9 mph |
| 2006 | 1.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 62.8% | 20.3% | 16.9% | 75.5% | 93.1 mph | 14.7% | 85.6 mph | 4.5% | 82.1 mph | 5.3% | 85.8 mph |
| 2007 | 1.1% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 58.4% | 23.3% | 18.3% | 76.4% | 92.7 mph | 16.2% | 83.9 mph | 6.2% | 79.9 mph | 1.2% | 86.6 mph |
| 2008 | 0.6% | 6.8% | 16.8% | 52.1% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 76.1% | 92.3 mph | 19.7% | 86.3 mph | 3.3% | 80.0 mph | 0.9% | 86.5 mph |
Wang has struck out 16.8% of the batters he's faced this year, compared to 9.7%, 8.4%, and 12.6% from 2005-2007. The AL average is 15.8%. Yes, that's right. Wang is striking out more hitters than the average AL pitcher so far in 2008. What's he doing differently? He's throwing the same rough percentage of fastballs, but you can see that he's been incorporating more sliders into his arsenal each season. This year he's throwing it almost 20% of the time compared to 13% in his rookie year. He is throwing fewer split-fingered fastballs and changeups, but it certainly seems to be working.
Wang's ground ball tendencies have been weaker this year, although his HR rate is improved. The one area of concern I see is a higher than normal line drive rate (for him).
Wang has five wins for a team that has 13. But remember that he's not an ace.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Grand Bobby, Just Grand
After 20 games, the Yankees had yet to hit any homers besides 15 solo shots and 5 two-run shots. This was a big part of the team’s offensive underperformance to this point. That changed in last night’s 9-5 victory over the Chicago White Sox, as Bobby Abreu hit an opposite field grand slam with two outs in the top of the seventh to turn a 3-2 deficit into a 6-4 lead. Johnny Damon added a three run HR in the ninth to give the Yankees a 9-4.
For all the clamoring in some places about releasing Damon or at least benching him, he’s now hitting .243/.357/.471 which is an OPS+ of 123.
Chien-Ming Wang didn’t pitch very well but got through six innings and allowed just three runs. His command was all over the place and he gave up 7 line drives but all’s well that ends well.
It was a nice win to start off another long stretch on the road. We’ll see if Mike Mussina and his power changeup can continue the streak tonight against Javy Vazquez, who’s pitching very well so far this season.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Is Moose Cooked?
According to his page at baseball-reference.com, Mike Mussina has thrown 318 pitches so far in 2008. 212 of them have been strikes, which on the surface seems decent. But here’s the scary part. Of those 318 pitches, batters have only swung and missed at 11 pitches (5%). That’s an average of under 3 per game, and it’s going to make it very difficult for Mussina to have sustained success unless something changes. Even Chien-Ming Wang who supposedly can’t K anyone is at 7% this year and was at 11% and 12% in 2006 and 2007 respectively.
Because of the fact that Moose can’t miss bats anymore, I wasn’t really surprised to see him have a bad start against Boston in last night’s 7-5 loss. You could in theory say if he hadn’t made two bad pitches to Manny he’d have had a decent game, but if you can’t fool hitters you’re going to make lots of bad pitches.
I really hoped that Moose would get a little more velocity back this year or come up with a way to survive through another year but right now I’m pretty pessimistic about him doing much differently than he’s done to this point. I’d love to be proven wrong.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Moeller. Chad Moeller.
The Chad Moeller era continues to be a rousing success. After averaging just 3.7 runs a game through their first 15 games of the season, the Yankee offense we were hoping to see all year finally showed up last night in a 15-9 drubbing of the Red Sox. After starting the year 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA, Chien-Ming Wang got touched up for eight runs in four innings, facing four batters in the fifth and not retiring a single one.
The Red Sox came back from a 7-3 deficit to score six in the fifth and take a short-lived 9-7 lead off Wang and Ross Ohlendorf. The Yankees put up a four spot to take the lead right back, but the game was still tenuous. Enter LaTroy Hawkins, who has been pitching decently after a horrendous second outing of the season. Hawkins shut the Red Sox down over two scoreless innings, allowing just one hit and striking out two. Billy Traber got David Ortiz out in the eighth and then Brian Bruney got the last five outs.
On offense, every starter got a hit. Moeller went 3 for 4 with a walk and is hitting .400/.538/.500 on the year. That’s an MVP caliber performance. Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and Jason Giambi had two hits apiece, Giambi raising his average to .139 on the year. Matsui’s quietly putting together a very solid start to his season at .327/.393/.545. He’s been worth about 11 runs so far this season, which is second only to guy who plays third.
Prior to last night, the Yankees were on pace to score 605 runs this year. Now they are on pace to score 719, which still sucks.
Beckett vs. Moose tonight in the series finale.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Top Ten Pitchers in MLB - Runs Saved Above Average through April 11 2008
| Rank | Last | First | RSAA | HR+ | BB+ | K+ |
| 1 | Wang | Chien-Ming | 7.9 | 197 | 186 | 83 |
| 2 | Sheets | Ben | 7.5 | inf! | 236 | 163 |
| 3 | Saunders | Joe | 6.9 | 134 | 169 | 100 |
| 4 | Peavy | Jake | 6.7 | 209 | 121 | 113 |
| 5 | Lohse | Kyle | 6.4 | inf! | 121 | 60 |
| 6 | Greinke | Zack Z | 6.4 | 141 | 133 | 53 |
| 7 | Matsuzaka | Daisuke | 6.1 | 86 | 73 | 190 |
| 8 | Jackson | Edwin | 5.9 | inf! | 84 | 111 |
| 9 | Hernandez | Felix A | 5.7 | 107 | 101 | 111 |
| 10 | Perez | Oliver | 5.7 | inf! | 101 | 128 |
RSAA:: Runs saved above average
HR+: HR rate relative to league (>100 is better than average)
BB+: BB rate relative to league (>100 is better than average)
K+: K rate relative to league (>100 is better than average)
Fenway's been a house of horrors for Wang, but he was great yesterday. If Bobby Abreu times a leap at the wall a little better he may have had a no-hitter. According to fangraphs, Wang allowed 25 balls in play yesterday. 13 were fly balls, 10 were ground balls, and just 2 were line drives. While seeing Wang give up flyballs isn't optimal, it sure worked yesterday.
There's a pretty interesting article analyzing Wang's mechanics and pitch selection at a blog I hadn't seen before, Driveline Mechanics.
Can Moose follow up Wang with another good start? I tend to doubt it but it sure would be great.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Worst Offense Ever Takes a Night Off
In a shocking turn of events, the Yankees managed to score a decent number of runs last night, beating the Royals 6-1. Granted, two of the runs came in the ninth inning against Hideo Nomo, who I could have sworn has been retired for a few years, but it was still good to see. Jorge Posada's HR was especially nice considering the way he has started the season off with his injury and ineffectiveness.More important than the offensive outburst was Andy Pettitte's good pitching. Pettitte went six and two-thirds innings and allowed just one run and five hits. The Yankees really need Pettitte and Wang to do what they are projected to do this season if they want to have a shot at the postseason. it was still a save situation when Pettitte was pulled so Joba Chamberlain pitched the end of the seventh as well as the eighth. I like seeing Joba pitch more than one inning because I still think he should end up in the rotation. Mariano Rivera came in to pitch the ninth despite the Yankees adding a couple of runs, which was fine, he hadn't pitched for a few days and was already warmed up anyway. One thing that I noticed last night is Mo was throwing a lot of two-seamers. I'd like to see him continue to do that.
Now comes three games against some .500 team. Your pitching matchups for the weekend:
Friday April 11: C. Wang (2-0,1.38) vs. C. Buchholz (0-1,5.40)
Saturday April 12: M. Mussina (1-1,3.09) vs. J. Beckett (0-1,9.64)
Sunday April 13: P. Hughes (0-1,5.00) vs. D. Matsuzaka (2-0,1.47)
I hate these series, mainly because of the ridiculous hype certain media outlets try to give these games. It's an interesting set of matchups. Wang makes his first road start of the year and the Yankees haven't seen Buccholz before, so hopefully he doesn't no-hit them. Beckett's still working his way back to full strength but Moose is going to have to try to trick one of the better lineups in baseball, and who knows what either Hughes or Matsuzaka will bring on Sunday night?
Since I don't know how long this will last, here's an early meaningless and small sample size look at how the Yankee defense has performed according to zone rating so far this season.
| Player | Pos | G | INN | Ch | ZR | PM | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Giambi, Jason | 1B | 6 | 43 | 11 | .818 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 0 | -15 |
| Ensberg, Morgan | 1B | 3 | 17 | 3 | 1.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 1B | 2 | 11 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Duncan, Shelley | 1B | 1 | 9 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 10 | 88 | 43 | .837 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 10 | 87 | 29 | .931 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 50 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 3B | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Molina, Jose | C | 7 | 55 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Posada, Jorge | C | 4 | 33 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 8 | 70 | 21 | .810 | 17 | 19 | -2 | -2 | -31 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 2 | 18 | 3 | 1.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Damon, Johnny | LF | 6 | 53 | 9 | 1.000 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 3 | 27 | 7 | .571 | 4 | 6 | -2 | -2 | -90 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 8 | 70 | 10 | .900 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Matsui, Hideki | RF | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Duncan, Shelley | RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 137 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 7 | 56 | 26 | .731 | 19 | 22 | -3 | -2 | -54 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | SS | 2 | 17 | 5 | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 52 |
| Betemit, Wilson | SS | 2 | 15 | 5 | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 58 |
| Total | 84 | 680 | 178 | .854 | 152 | 150 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games
Melky's had some tough chances so I wouldn't pay much heed to his numbers yet, but I think Hideki Matsui needs to be kept out of the outfield whenever possible. For those of you thinking Alex Rodriguez is playing Gold Glove caliber defense this year, you're right.
In bad news down on the farm, Alan Horne suffered some kind of injury in his start last night and will have an MRI today. Let's hope for good news there.
Monday, April 7, 2008
April Expectations
Thanks to yesterday's 2-0 victory over the Rays, the Yankees evened their record at 3-3. I didn't get to see the game although I listened to it while driving and it sounded like some fine pitching was done by Chien-Ming Wang, Joba Chamberlain, and Mariano Rivera. While relying on John Sterling for insight into the game is probably risky, he made it sound like Wang was working his slider in well which helped him fan 6 in 6 innings, a very high number for the Wanger.One thing this series has showed me so far is that the computers may have been onto something. Tampa can play. Jason Bartlett seems like a big upgrade at short and B.J. Upton looks to have the makings of a great defensive CF. I'll be interested to see what kind of pitching they get out of the back of their rotation on a consistent level but other than that they're looking pretty tough.
When the season starts we all dream of lots of wins and minimal losses so a 3-3 start probably seems a little disappointing, especially at home. Is it though? Using Bill James's log5 method for predicting a team's wins/losses and the average results of our Diamond Mind projection blowout, here's a look at what we should have expected the Yankees to do so far compared to what they've actually done as well as a look through the games of April 28, which are part of a pretty rough stretch of 18 of 20 games on the road (at least partially thanks to a visit by the Pope).
| Date | Road | Home | log5 W | log5 L | Act W | Act L |
| 4/1 | BlueJays | Yankees | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1 | 0 |
| 4/2 | BlueJays | Yankees | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 |
| 4/3 | BlueJays | Yankees | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4/4 | Rays | Yankees | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 2 |
| 4/5 | Rays | Yankees | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4/6 | Rays | Yankees | 3.7 | 2.3 | 3 | 3 |
| 4/7 | Rays | Yankees | 4.3 | 2.7 | ||
| 4/8 | Yankees | Royals | 4.9 | 3.1 | ||
| 4/9 | Yankees | Royals | 5.5 | 3.5 | ||
| 4/10 | Yankees | Royals | 6.1 | 3.9 | ||
| 4/11 | Yankees | RedSox | 6.6 | 4.4 | ||
| 4/12 | Yankees | RedSox | 7.0 | 5.0 | ||
| 4/13 | Yankees | RedSox | 7.5 | 5.5 | ||
| 4/14 | Yankees | Rays | 8.0 | 6.0 | ||
| 4/15 | Yankees | Rays | 8.6 | 6.4 | ||
| 4/16 | RedSox | Yankees | 9.1 | 6.9 | ||
| 4/17 | RedSox | Yankees | 9.7 | 7.3 | ||
| 4/18 | Yankees | Orioles | 10.3 | 7.7 | ||
| 4/19 | Yankees | Orioles | 11.0 | 8.0 | ||
| 4/20 | Yankees | Orioles | 11.6 | 8.4 | ||
| 4/22 | Yankees | WhiteSox | 12.2 | 8.8 | ||
| 4/23 | Yankees | WhiteSox | 12.8 | 9.2 | ||
| 4/24 | Yankees | WhiteSox | 13.4 | 9.6 | ||
| 4/25 | Yankees | Indians | 13.9 | 10.1 | ||
| 4/26 | Yankees | Indians | 14.4 | 10.6 | ||
| 4/27 | Yankees | Indians | 14.9 | 11.1 | ||
| 4/28 | Yankees | Indians | 15.4 | 11.6 |
If the Yankees can pull of the win today they're right about where they should be after seven games according to log5 and the pre-season projections. Whether Mike Mussina is up to it or not is the big question. So far the Yankee offense has been MIA although it's too soon to be overly concerned about that in my opinion. These numbers tell me what yup has been saying in the comments is about right. We should probably be happy if the Yankees tread water over the rest of April and get through the month around .500 or a little better.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
A Good Start
Well, for at least one more day we can dream of the Yankees going 162-0. The Yankees edged Toronto 3-2 in a well-played game by both teams. Chien-Ming Wang pitched 7 effective innings, although he didn’t seem particularly sharp at times. Roy Halladay matched Wang pitch for pitch and inning for inning and run for run until the seventh, when the Yankees scratched out their third run. Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera finished it off, and the Yankees are tied for first place.
So much attention has been paid to Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Chamberlain, but Wang is probably the key guy in the rotation this year. After his disastrous post-season and poor spring training it was good to see him pitching pretty well.
I’ve written way too much about the Yankee defense during the last few years, surely to the point where a lot of you are sick of reading about it. Melky Cabrera made a couple of fine catches in center field, justifying his zone rating and projection. An OF of Bobby Abreu, Melky and Johnny Damon has a chance to be the best defensive Yankee OF since the late 90s. Even the much-maligned Jason Giambi played a solid defensive game. I’m not expecting either good defense or good health out of Giambi this year, so whatever he can contribute will be a big boost.
In the big picture, it’s just one game, but it’s great to have meaningful baseball back, and it’s even better when it starts out with a win.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Pitcher and Team Wrapup
We're finally through all the projections so it's time to look at what they mean. First up, here are the links to all the pieces for anyone who wants to get caught up.Position Players
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jorge Posada
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jason Giambi
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Robinson Cano
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Derek Jeter
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Alex Rodriguez
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Johnny Damon
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Melky Cabrera
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Bobby Abreu
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Hideki Matsui
Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Bench
Pitchers
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Andy Pettitte
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Mike Mussina
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Phil Hughes
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Ian Kennedy
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Joba Chamberlain
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Mariano Rivera
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins
Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Rest of the Pen
If you've been keeping up with these you'll recall that I projected the position players and bench to score 938 runs in 2008 using estimated playing time and depth charts. I projected their defense to be about 13 runs below average. For the pitching, that's a little bit trickier, so I'm going to present two scenarios.
Scenario 1
In this scenario, I'm going to assume that everything that I think the Yankees are planning for falls into place fairly well. This is basically the best case scenario assuming everyone plays to their average projections and innings limits.
| Starters | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 200 | 215 | 97 | 90 | 95 | 13 | 58 | 97 | 4.05 |
| Andy Pettitte | 200 | 220 | 103 | 94 | 98 | 19 | 62 | 137 | 4.25 |
| Phil Hughes | 160 | 152 | 78 | 72 | 77 | 16 | 57 | 129 | 4.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | 170 | 170 | 89 | 82 | 91 | 20 | 67 | 130 | 4.35 |
| Mike Mussina | 150 | 170 | 83 | 77 | 75 | 18 | 38 | 103 | 4.61 |
| Joba ChamberlainS | 100 | 94 | 47 | 43 | 45 | 11 | 33 | 99 | 3.90 |
| Starters Total | 980 | 1020 | 498 | 459 | 482 | 98 | 314 | 696 | 4.22 |
| Relievers | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Mariano Rivera | 70 | 64 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 60 | 2.88 |
| Joba ChamberlainR | 40 | 34 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 48 | 3.10 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 60 | 57 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 7 | 25 | 55 | 4.19 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 60 | 66 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 4.36 |
| Chris Britton | 40 | 39 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 3.99 |
| Brian Bruney | 40 | 39 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 33 | 4.88 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 40 | 37 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 44 | 4.12 |
| Ross OhlendorfR | 40 | 44 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 4.37 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 40 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 30 | 4.59 |
| Scott Patterson | 40 | 40 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 4.23 |
| Relievers Total | 470 | 461 | 226 | 209 | 231 | 53 | 169 | 396 | 4.01 |
| IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA | |
| Starters + Relievers | 1450 | 1481 | 723 | 669 | 713 | 151 | 483 | 1092 | 4.15 |
| Average | 1450 | 1513 | 783 | 720 | 769 | 163 | 535 | 1070 | 4.47 |
| Difference | 0 | -32 | 60 | 51 | 57 | -12 | -52 | 22 | -0.32 |
FR in the table above is FIP(fielding independent pitching) runs allowed, which is an approximation of what the Yankee pitchers would allow with an average defense. You can probably move the innings around in the pen but most of the relievers project fairly closely to each other so it shouldn't make a ton of difference. In this scenario, the Yankees as a team would allow 723 runs in total, with the defense being responsible for about ten of them.
Scenario 2
| Starters | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 180 | 193 | 87 | 81 | 86 | 12 | 52 | 87 | 4.05 |
| Andy Pettitte | 160 | 176 | 83 | 75 | 79 | 16 | 50 | 110 | 4.25 |
| Phil Hughes | 150 | 143 | 73 | 68 | 73 | 15 | 53 | 121 | 4.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | 150 | 150 | 78 | 73 | 80 | 17 | 59 | 115 | 4.35 |
| Mike Mussina | 150 | 170 | 83 | 77 | 75 | 18 | 38 | 103 | 4.61 |
| Kei Igawa | 100 | 111 | 62 | 58 | 62 | 17 | 36 | 73 | 5.26 |
| Jeff Karstens | 90 | 105 | 60 | 56 | 58 | 15 | 33 | 53 | 5.56 |
| Joba ChamberlainS | 70 | 65 | 33 | 30 | 31 | 8 | 23 | 69 | 3.90 |
| Starters Total | 1050 | 1113 | 560 | 518 | 544 | 118 | 344 | 731 | 4.44 |
| Relievers | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Mariano Rivera | 60 | 55 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 52 | 2.88 |
| Joba ChamberlainR | 30 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 3.10 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 50 | 47 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 4.19 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 50 | 55 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 4.36 |
| Chris Britton | 30 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 3.99 |
| Brian Bruney | 30 | 29 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 4.88 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 30 | 27 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 4.12 |
| Ross OhlendorfR | 30 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 4.37 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 30 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4.59 |
| Scott Patterson | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 4.23 |
| Sean Henn | 30 | 33 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 5.24 |
| Relievers Total | 400 | 396 | 196 | 182 | 199 | 45 | 147 | 331 | 4.09 |
| IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA | |
| Starters + Relievers | 1450 | 1509 | 756 | 700 | 742 | 163 | 490 | 1063 | 4.34 |
| Average | 1450 | 1513 | 783 | 720 | 769 | 163 | 535 | 1070 | 4.47 |
| Difference | 0 | -4 | 27 | 20 | 27 | 0 | -45 | -7 | -0.12 |
Here the assumption is the Yankees lose some time from their penciled-in starters and have to give Igawa and Karstens 190 innings. Sean Henn makes an appearance in the pen as well and the better-projected relievers pitch a little less. It should be noted that any or all of the pitchers could also pitch worse than projected, so this is not exactly the worst-case scenario by any means. I'd consider this more of a realistic/likely scenario assuming average fortune with health and performance. Here the Yankees as a team allow 783 runs, with 14 of them due to the defense.
So we have a runs scored of 938, and two different runs allowed totals. I'll use Pythagenpat to estimate the Yankees' schedule-neutral winning percentage. Pythagenpat is a more accurate way to estimate a team's pythagorean winning percentage by using a custom exponent instead of either the standard 2 or slightly more accurate 1.83. The formula to get the custom exponent is (RS/G + RA/G)^.28. Then we take RS^custom exponent and divide by (RS^custom exponent + RA^custom exponent).
Scenario 1
Runs Scored: 938
Runs Allowed: 723
Exponent: 1.92
Pythagenpat%: .62
Neutral Schedule Wins: 101
Scenario 2
Runs Scored: 938
Runs Allowed: 783
Exponent: 1.94
Pythagenpat%: .59
Neutral Schedule Wins: 95
We're not quite done yet, because now we have to look at the strength of the Yankees' schedule. Thankfully someone already did this on a post related to my Diamond Mind projections on Baseball Think Factory.
The AL East minus the Yanks has an expected winning percentage of .523. If we use Bill James's log 5 method to calculate the Yankees' expected winning percentage over their AL East games we get a winning percentage of .598 for scenario 1 and a winning percentage of .568 for scenario 2. I'm going to assume the rest of the schedule is .500 which is probably lazy but should be close enough with the margin of error.
Scenario 1: .598*76 + .62* 86 = 98.7 wins
Scenario 2: .568*76 + .59* 86 = 93.8 wins
I'm going to assume that the Yankees' luck will fall somewhere between scenarios 1 and 2. Split the difference and they should end up at 96 wins. Of course this depends on the key players staying healthy and hitting their projections, but on paper this is a very good team. Let's hope they show it starting Monday. The long off-season is almost over. Thanks to everyone who's stopped by over the last few months. Writing the blog and having people read and comment makes the off-season go by much faster for me.
Update: My Hardball Times' season preview for the Yankees has been posted on their site today for anyone who wants to check it out. Link: Five Questions: New York Yankees
Monday, March 10, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang
With the position players done and accounted for, it's time to move on to the Yankee pitching. The numbers show that the position players should do their part to make the Yankees a contender, so it's up to the pitching to not hamper that. First up, it's the Yankees likely opening day starter, Chien-Ming Wang.2007
After a solid regular season that saw Wang rank as one of the top 15 starting pitchers in the American League by most measures came a disastrous postseason that was the chief reason the Yankees did not advance out of the ALDS. Unfortunately, this tarnished what was an overall good season and led to many Yankee fans wanting him shipped out for pennies on the dollar because he's teh unclutch.
Wang is the type of player that can't be easily projected. To this point in his career Wang has done three things well. He suppresses HRs, he walks fewer batters than average, and he allows a lower percentage of hits on balls in play than the average. The walk rate is a skill that can't be taken away from him. HRs allowed are normally a function of a pitchers' fly ball percentage, usually around 11%. In his career, Wang is around 7.7%. The league average BABIP is around .304, Wang's career mark is .287. So when you regress HR rate and hit rate towards league average as most projection systems do, Wang gets penalized more than most pitchers. His low K rate doesn't really impact his projections as much as assumed.
Regarding the HR rate, I'm not so sure that we should assume that all fly balls are equal. I don't know if anyone has ever studied the correlation between HRs per fly ball and ground ball rate, but it may be an interesting study. Regarding BABIP, there is at least some anecdotal evidence that Wang allows more easily fieldable ground balls, as do most ground ball pitchers.
Wang exceeded his projections pretty significantly in 2007.
| Chien-Ming Wang | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 4.17 | 29 | 181 | 199 | 91 | 84 | 16 | 48 | 78 | 8 | 8 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Actual | 3.70 | 30 | 199 | 199 | 84 | 82 | 9 | 59 | 104 | 23 | 23 | 9.0 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 4.7 |
| Difference | 113% | 105% | 110% | 276% | 276% | 110% | 195% | 89% | 121% |
RSAA: runs saved above average
RSAA/200: RSAA pro-rated to 200 innings
*All differences are on a rate basis except for G and IP. All percentages are set so that a percentage better than 100 means the pitcher was better than expected, and a percentage lower than 100 means they were worse (on a rate basis).
Wang saved 15 runs more than expected compared to average. He allowed 10% fewer hits than expected, 95% fewer HRs than projected and struck out 21% more than expected. His walk rate was 11% worse than projected, which probably goes in hand with him experimenting with more pitches and his improved strikeout rate.
On the surface, Wang's 2007 was a carbon copy of his 2006. 19-6 with a 3.63 ERA vs. 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA. If you look at the numbers in a little more detail there are some differences though, primarily in his splits. I've calcualted the splits below from Retrosheet's play by play data, so they may differ slightly from splits you may see elsewhere.
| Split | PA | AB | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS s | F% | L% | G% | P% |
| Vs LHB | 429 | 393 | 77 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 2 | 34 | .285 | .345 | .417 | .762 | .073 | 17% | 25% | 55% | 3% |
| Vs RHB | 389 | 359 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 70 | .242 | .301 | .312 | .613 | .080 | 15% | 18% | 63% | 3% |
| Total | 818 | 752 | 146 | 38 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 8 | 104 | .265 | .324 | .367 | .691 | .038 | 16% | 22% | 58% | 3% |
OPS s: OPS sigma
F%: Fly ball %
L%: Line drive %
G%: Groundball %
P%: Popup %
Contrast that to Wang's splits in 2005 and 2006.
| Split | PA | AB | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS s | F% | L% | G% | P% |
| Vs LHB | 625 | 584 | 112 | 32 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 48 | .271 | .318 | .392 | .711 | .066 | 16% | 16% | 63% | 4% |
| Vs RHB | 737 | 693 | 148 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 75 | .271 | .315 | .359 | .674 | .056 | 17% | 15% | 65% | 3% |
| Total | 1362 | 1277 | 260 | 61 | 4 | 21 | 77 | 8 | 123 | .271 | .316 | .374 | .691 | .030 | 16% | 16% | 64% | 4% |
Lefties hit Wang much harder in 2007. Their line drive percentage went from 16% to 25% which led to a higher batting average. In 2005-2006, Wang walked 6.4% of the lefties he faced and struck out 7.7%. In 2007 he walked 7.9% of the lefties he faced and fanned 7.9%. For righties he went from striking out 10.2% in 2005 and 2006 to 18.0% in 2007, with his walk rate going from 5% to 6.2%. These numbers tell me that Wang was making adjustments in 2007, and it'll be interesting to see what that means for 2008.
2008
As Wang continues to perform, the projection systems are starting to fall in line.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 30 | 30 | 189 | 217 | 99 | 91 | 14 | 55 | 96 | 4.33 | 4.02 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 23 |
| marcel | 28 | 28 | 181 | 184 | 81 | 77 | 11 | 53 | 92 | 3.83 | 3.85 | 13 | 31 | 10 | 25 |
| pecota | 29 | 29 | 178 | 200 | 97 | 87 | 14 | 59 | 95 | 4.37 | 4.16 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 19 |
| zips | 30 | 30 | 200 | 213 | 95 | 87 | 13 | 53 | 87 | 3.92 | 3.97 | 12 | 32 | 8 | 26 |
| cairo | 30 | 30 | 197 | 201 | 87 | 84 | 11 | 54 | 89 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 14 | 33 | 11 | 28 |
| average | 29 | 29 | 189 | 203 | 92 | 85 | 13 | 55 | 92 | 4.05 | 3.97 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 24 |
The projection systems see Wang around a 4 ERA which would make him about a win better than average, or three wins better than a replacement level starter. Here's his range of CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 187 | 78 | 75 | 8 | 47 | 98 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 23 | 43 | 20 | 37 |
| 65% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 194 | 82 | 79 | 9 | 50 | 94 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 18 | 38 | 16 | 33 |
| Baseline | 30 | 30 | 197 | 201 | 87 | 84 | 11 | 54 | 89 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 14 | 33 | 11 | 28 |
| 35% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 208 | 92 | 89 | 13 | 58 | 84 | 4.05 | 4.06 | 9 | 29 | 6 | 23 |
| 20% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 215 | 96 | 93 | 14 | 61 | 80 | 4.26 | 4.27 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 19 |
Projection systems are meant to be objective, so they just look at the numbers. Wang's stats belie the quality of his stuff, which we can see if we use Josh Kalk's Pitch F/X tool. Wang's sinker averages 94 mph. That's a dominant pitch, even if it doesn't result in strikeouts. It also seems like Wang is working on refining his slider and changeup which can only help him. It'll be interesting to see if new pitching coach Dave Eiland can help Wang in that regard.
I see Wang somewhere between the 65% and the baseline projection this year, which is basically what he has done to this point in his career.
Value
Wang's in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and lost his case with the Yankees. He'll make $4 million this season which makes him a bargain compared to what teams pay on the free agent market for a marginal win.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 2.8 | $12,397,876 | $4,000,000 | $8,397,876 |
The Yankees have been hesitant to sign Wang to a long-term deal, which makes sense given his past injury history and the fact that he is difficult to project. If he continues to perform as he has he's probably worth around $10-12 million a season.
Conclusion
I know Wang had a bad postseason, but I'm still a fan. He's probably miscast as a #1 starter when comparing him to the Johan Santana and Jake Peavy class of pitcher, but he's been one of the top fourteen pitchers in the AL the last two years, which by definition makes him a top starter. With Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain up with the team now, Wang may be supplanted as the Yankees' "ace" as soon as this season. Then maybe he'll get credit for being what he is, which is a good solid starter that ANY team in baseball would be glad to have.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
NY Post: WANG WILL NOT GET LONG CONTRACT
Wang, who is 38-13 across the past two seasons and 46-18 in 82 big league games, filed an arbitration figure of $4.6 million. That was $600,000 more than the Yankees’ number. Yet, the sides can’t find a way to split the difference, never mind talk about long-term contract.
“I want to,” Wang said of inking a multi-year contract. “They told me it’s not the time because for pitchers it’s hard to stay healthy.”
I don’t blame the Yankees for being wary of signing Wang long-term.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
The Wang Effect?
If you're a baseball fan with at least some proclivity towards stats, you're probably familiar with Voros McCracken's DIPS theory. McCracken basically stated that a pitcher's ability to control what happens on balls in play is variable and volatile. Some overly extreme devotees to this theory take it to mean that a pitcher has zero control over a ball hit into play, but that's not really true. If it was, you wouldn't have groundball pitchers and fly ball pitchers. Also, selection bias would mean that anyone who reaches the majors may have a certain level of skill on balls in play that allowed them to get that far. I still think DIPS theory is useful in many ways, primarily because it taught me to look more closely at a pitcher's peripherals, but it's really just a fraction of any evaluating of pitching that I do.One of the often-stated mantras about Chien-Ming Wang is that he generates easily fieldable ground balls, which means his success despite a low strikeout rate is not really that much of a fluke. It's possible this is true, at least in the regular season, but is there a way to quantify it?
I recorded zone rating daily throughout 2007 to see if I could use the day by day data to answer questions like this. Here's a look at what the numbers showed.
| Split | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Diff |
| Team Total | 1307 | 1133 | 3054 | 10150 | 3211 | 1337 | 74 | 450 | .830 | 2535 | -18 |
G: Games
GS: Games started
Ch: Fieldable chances as defined by zone rating
INN: Defensive innings
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
ZR: Zone rating (PM/Ch) PM: Plays made Diff: Plays made compared to average This is how the Yankees did as a team in 2007. Overall they made 18 plays fewer than average.
Here's a look at how the team did in the games Wang started. This does include all innings in those games including those not pitched by Wang, but I have no way to separate those out.
| Split | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Diff |
| Wang Total | 248 | 215 | 591 | 1957.1 | 631 | 318 | 7 | 96 | .853 | 504 | 10 |
Interesting, huh? In the games that Wang pitched, the team was 10 plays better than average.
Lastly, here's the team in games Wang did not start.
| Split | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Diff |
| Total - Wang | 1059 | 918 | 2463 | 8192.9 | 2580 | 1019 | 67 | 354 | .825 | 2031 | -28 |
A few things to bear in mind about this data before we make too much of it.
1) It's only one year. Unfortunately no one I know of tracked daily zone rating before this season so sample size is an issue.
2) Like I said, this includes innings pitched by relievers and not just Wang. That muddies the numbers up a little.
3) BIP (ball in play) distribution. Perhaps Wang's balls in play just happened to find their way to the better fielders on the team? We can check that too.
| Player | Pos | wG | wINN | wCh | wPM | wZR | wDiff | nwG | nwINN | nwCh | nwPM | nwZR | nwDiff | ZR Ratio | ||
| Phillips, Andy | 1B | 13 | 90 | 17 | 14 | .824 | 0 | 44 | 341 | 73 | 62 | .849 | 1 | 97.0% | ||
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 1B | 13 | 79 | 16 | 13 | .813 | 0 | 57 | 379 | 73 | 61 | .836 | 0 | 97.2% | ||
| Cairo, Miguel | 1B | 4 | 33 | 13 | 9 | .692 | -2 | 18 | 123.1 | 29 | 23 | .793 | -1 | 87.3% | ||
| Phelps, Josh | 1B | 5 | 23 | 6 | 4 | .667 | -1 | 24 | 139.3 | 21 | 18 | .857 | 0 | 77.8% | ||
| Betemit, Wilson | 1B | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | .000 | -1 | 11 | 53.1 | 17 | 14 | .824 | 0 | 0.0% | ||
| Giambi, Jason | 1B | 4 | 21 | 7 | 4 | .571 | -2 | 14 | 100 | 19 | 17 | .895 | 1 | 63.9% | ||
| Nieves, Wil | 1B | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -1 | -1 | 1.000 | 0 | 100.0% | ||
| Damon, Johnny | 1B | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 4 | 2.1 | -2 | -2 | 1.000 | 0 | 100.0% | ||
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 30 | 267 | 117 | 105 | .897 | 9 | 129 | 1141 | 401 | 333 | .830 | 3 | 108.1% | ||
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 30 | 258 | 85 | 70 | .824 | 5 | 124 | 1072 | 285 | 213 | .747 | -4 | 110.2% | ||
| Phillips, Andy | 3B | 2 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0.0% | ||
| Cairo, Miguel | 3B | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .500 | -1 | 5 | 30 | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 2 | 50.0% | ||
| Gonzalez, Alberto | 3B | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 1.000 | 0 | 100.0% | ||
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 28 | 242 | 105 | 85 | .810 | -1 | 127 | 1076 | 372 | 280 | .753 | -25 | 107.6% | ||
| Betemit, Wilson | SS | 3 | 18 | 3 | 2 | .667 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 1.000 | 1 | 66.7% | ||
| Cairo, Miguel | SS | 4 | 17 | 3 | 2 | .667 | 0 | 12 | 35 | 26 | 22 | .846 | 1 | 78.8% | ||
| Gonzalez, Alberto | SS | 2 | 10 | 5 | 4 | .800 | 0 | 9 | 29.2 | 14 | 11 | .786 | 0 | 101.8% | ||
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 19 | 159 | 37 | 33 | .892 | 1 | 93 | 821 | 212 | 172 | .811 | -11 | 109.9% | ||
| Damon, Johnny | LF | 10 | 87 | 15 | 14 | .933 | 1 | 22 | 184 | 64 | 54 | .844 | -1 | 110.6% | ||
| Cabrera, Melky | LF | 2 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 1.000 | 1 | 16 | 125 | 29 | 26 | .897 | 1 | 111.5% | ||
| Thompson, Kevin | LF | 3 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 2 | 10.2 | 6 | 5 | .833 | 0 | 120.0% | ||
| Cairo, Miguel | LF | 1 | 8 | 9 | 8 | .889 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | -6 | 1.000 | -1 | 88.9% | ||
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 28 | 239 | 68 | 63 | .926 | 3 | 103 | 833 | 312 | 280 | .897 | 4 | 103.2% | ||
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 6 | 50 | 13 | 13 | 1.000 | 1 | 42 | 327 | 121 | 106 | .876 | -1 | 114.2% | ||
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 30 | 262 | 53 | 44 | .830 | -2 | 127 | 1071 | 307 | 265 | .863 | -2 | 96.2% | ||
| Duncan, Shelley | RF | 2 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | 0 | 6 | 31 | 9 | 8 | .889 | 0 | 112.5% | ||
| Sardinha, Bronson | RF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0 | 100.0% |
Columns prefaced with a w are the stats in the games started by Wang, columns prefaced by an nw are the non-Wang games. The ZR ratio is the difference between each player's zone rating in Wang games and non-Wang games. A percentage less than 100 means they were worse in Wang's starts and a percentage greater than 100 means they were better in Wang's starts. I'm not looking at runs saved here, but plays made above/below average. Rough rule of thumb is .8 runs per play although it varies a bit by position
Again, I don't know how meaningful this is due to the sample size and non-Wang innings in the 30 Wang games but I think it's pretty cool to look at. Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez all had better zone ratings in Wang's starts than in the other games. The first base collective did worse. (wil Nieves at first? WTF?). What's interesting to me is that even the OF saw a boost in games started by Wang, with the exception of RF and Bobby Abreu.
I don't think we can say with any absolute certainty that Wang does allow more easily fieldable balls in play than the typical pitcher, but there's at least circumstantial evidence that he may. It'll be something worth following going forward. It may also make us want to think a little bit more about DIPS theory and about how we assess defense. Just like pitching is partly-related to defense, perhaps defense is partly-related to pitching.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Lohud.com - Yankees set to offer contracts to Wang, Betemit, Cano
The Yankees have tended to go year-to-year with their younger players. But Wang is 38-13 with a 3.67 ERA over the last two seasons. No pitcher in baseball has more wins over that stretch.
Wang was a bargain last season at $489,500 and will be in line for a significant raise. A wretched postseason (0-2, 19.06 in two starts against Cleveland) damaged his value and led to the Yankees discussing a trade for Minnesota ace Johan Santana.
“It took me a long time to get over (the playoffs). It was on my mind,” Wang said. “But I will be ready for next season.”
Along with Wang, second baseman Robinson Cano, infielder Wilson Betemit and right-handed reliever Brian Bruney are eligible for arbitration. The Yankees will offer contracts to Cano and Betemit. Bruney, who had a poor second half and did not make the postseason roster, could be let go.
It’d be nice for the Yankees to buy out the arbitration and some free agency years on both Cano and Wang. I’d be surprised if Bruney was non-tendered, I still think he has upside if he can tighten up his control a little which is admittedly easier said than done.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Santana/Yankees Trade Rumor
I'm not one to dwell much on trade rumors. I don't have 'sources' and 95% of the stuff we hear never comes to pass. But what the hell, it's the offseason and I've got blogger's block, so let's look at the trade rumor that was first posted at MLB Trade Rumors.Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand. They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That's a huge price, but doesn't seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.
I can't speak to MLB Trade Rumors' credibility, but they have a site and they do their thing and at the very least it spurs some discussion. Ignoring the site's credibility or lack thereof, it's an interesting question. Is Rowand + Santana + lots of money gone worth Wang/Kennedy/Melky?
As a fan, I don't like this trade. Santana should stay a Twin, and Wang, Kennedy and Melky should stay Yankees. It's more fun to root for players who broke through on your team and it's a shame that someone like Santana won't be able to stay a Twin. However, if Santana decides he wants to leave, then I'd rather see him come to the Yankees than go to the Red Sox or Mets.
So let's look at the pitching side of the deal first. Here are the CAIRO projections for Santana, Wang, and Kennedy.
| Player | AGE | TEAM | LG | Prole | Prole | ERA | ERA+ | G | W | L | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RS |
| Johan Santana | 29 | MIN | AL | S | S | 3.34 | 130 | 37 | 14 | 11 | 221 | 199 | 82 | 27 | 50 | 233 | 56 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 28 | NYA | AL | S | S | 3.93 | 114 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 202 | 210 | 88 | 12 | 56 | 95 | 38 |
| Ian Kennedy | 23 | NYA | AL | S | S | 4.36 | 103 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 190 | 192 | 92 | 23 | 75 | 146 | 27 |
In the table above, RS is runs saved above a replacement pitcher (5.62 ERA). 221 innings of Santana is worth about 5.6 wins above a replacement starter. 392 innings of Wang and Kennedy is worth about 6.5 wins. To replace the missing innings between Santana and Wang/Kennedy the Yankees need 171 innings of 5.17 ERA. That doesn't seem particularly difficult to find. Just avoid Sean Henn, Jeff Karstens and Kei Igawa.
How about losing Melky and replacing him with Rowand?
Rowand had a good year for Philly, but at age 30 it would be folly to expect the same going forward. Here's a look at three different CAIRO projections. The first two are for Rowand's baseline projection as a Phillie and then as a Yankee. For Melky it's his baseline projection as a Yankee.
| Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| Aaron Rowand | PHI | 140 | 569 | 513 | 148 | 34 | 2 | 18 | 80 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .288 | .345 | .470 | .815 | 11 |
| Aaron Rowand | NYA | 140 | 569 | 513 | 147 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 77 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .286 | .344 | .457 | .800 | 8 |
| Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
Swapping out Rowand for Melky projects to be somewhere around a one win upgrade on offense. On defense I have Rowand projected to be a +7 defender and Melky a +4, so that's another couple of runs but not enough to be a big difference.
Here's one last set of projections, Melky's range of CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO | Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| 80% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 172 | 34 | 8 | 14 | 83 | 63 | 64 | 15 | 4 | .308 | .379 | .472 | .852 | 26 |
| 65% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 164 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 77 | 58 | 70 | 13 | 4 | .294 | .360 | .438 | .797 | 11 |
| Baseline | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
| 35% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 135 | 544 | 484 | 129 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 43 | 69 | 8 | 3 | .267 | .321 | .368 | .689 | -11 |
| 20% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 129 | 523 | 465 | 118 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 37 | 71 | 6 | 2 | .253 | .302 | .333 | .635 | -18 |
I like Melky a lot, but that 80% projectile looks very unlikely. However, I think his 65% projection is very achievable, in which case he'd be just as valuable as Rowand.
Ignoring contracts for a minute, Santana plus 171 innings of
Now, let's look at contracts. Any trade for Santana is going to include a contract extension at probably at least $17 million a year for four or five years. Rowand is going to probably get at least a Gary Matthews Jr. type contract, 5 years and $50 million. Could be more, could be less, but that seems like what the market will bear for a good defensive CF who had a solid offensive season.
It just doesn't make sense. I think Santana's great. I'd love to have him as a Yankee if he leaves the Twins, but adding $25 million in payroll for one win in 2008 just doesn't seem rational. Not when you are likely going to have to overpay to keep some combination of A-Rod, Posada, and Mo. Of course adding Santana makes the Yankees a better postseason team if they make it, because Santana projects to be one of the top two or three pitchers in the AL. He's also just a year older than Wang, but with a lot more mileage on his arm.
Besides, the Twins have lots of young pitching on the way. I'd think they would rather get young position players than pitchers.
Friday, October 12, 2007
North Jersey: Yanks seem set to let Torre go
NEW YORK—The wait to discover Joe Torre’s managerial fate will carry through the weekend. In a few days, the Yankees will transfer the whole show to Tampa, where organizational meetings are expected to begin Tuesday.
Topic A is Torre, though the buzz from Legends Field to the Bronx still wasn’t very positive for the man who guided the Yanks to 12 straight postseasons.
...
The feeling is that too many opinions of key club officials would have to be altered to prevent a managerial change—an extremely tall order.
For everyone tired of the Alex Rodriguez story, there’s the Joe Torre story.
I have not opined on whether or not the Yankees keep Torre. First off, I don’t think Torre can be blamed in any way for the ALDS loss to Cleveland. The Yankees got outplayed by a better team overall, and no manager would have gotten a better performance out of Chien-Ming Wang, which was a huge culprit in the series loss.
Torre has good and bad points, just like any manager. I’m fairly certain that the collective fan bases of every single team dislikes a lot of the things their team’s managers do. I respect and like Joe Torre as a person. He’s been the manager for the most successful period of Yankees history that I can recall. He does some great work with his Joe Torre Safe at Home Foundation, and I think in most cases he does a great job of protecting most of his team from the media (although I think that took a hit last year with his treatment of Rodriguez in a Sports Illustrated article and when he batted Rodriguez 8th in the ALDS against Detroit). That being said, I think that he is not a good tactical manager in certain areas. My chief complaints with Torre are that he is too enamored with small-ball tactics at times and I don’t think he manages his bullpen well. Whether that outweighs the things that he may be good at, I have no idea. If the Yankees are really ready for a youth movement, Torre may not be the right man for the job.
I love Mariano Rivera. He’s my favorite Yankee. I absolutely do not blame Mo for standing up for Torre. It’s his right to do it, and it’s completely understandable why he would do it. Anyone blasting Rivera for this should remember the fact that it was Torre who broke Mo in and it was Torre who made Mo what he is today. This is just further proof of what a stand-up guy Rivera is. However, I don’t think the Yankees should bring Torre back just to appease Rivera or anyone else. They need to make a decision on if keeping Torre is a better option than replacing him with someone else. Players should not dictate organization direction, they should play.
The two most likely candidates to replace Torre seem to be Don Mattingly and Joe Girardi. There are also rumblings that the Yankees are considering Tony LaRussa and Bobby Valentine. In my personal order of preference of those four candidates I’d probably favor Girardi, then Valentine, then Mattingly, then LaRussa. I’m not a big fan of LaRussa, but as several posters have mentioned that would also probably mean bringing in Dave Duncan as a pitching coach. Duncan has a good reputation although it is mainly based on his work with veterans. I’m not sure if he’s the right pitching coach to entrust with the development of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
2007 ALDS: Yankee Run Values
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BRAA | DRAA | TRAA |
| R Cano | 16 | .333 | .375 | .800 | 1.175 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| S Duncan | 4 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A Rodriguez | 17 | .267 | .353 | .467 | .820 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M Cabrera | 16 | .188 | .188 | .375 | .563 | -1 | 1 | 0 |
| B Sardinha | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J Damon | 19 | .278 | .316 | .611 | .927 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| H Matsui | 16 | .182 | .438 | .182 | .620 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J Giambi | 4 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D Mientkiewicz | 8 | .000 | .143 | .000 | .143 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| J Posada | 17 | .133 | .235 | .200 | .435 | -2 | 0 | -2 |
| B Abreu | 17 | .267 | .353 | .533 | .886 | 1 | -4 | -3 |
| D Jeter | 17 | .176 | .176 | .176 | .352 | -2 | -1 | -3 |
BRAA: Batting runs above average by linear weights
DRAA: Defensive runs saved above average by linear weights
TRAA: BRAA + DRAA
| Player | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | RSAA |
| A Pettitte | 6.3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 |
| M Rivera | 4.7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 |
| P Hughes | 5.7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 2 |
| K Farnsworth | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 |
| M Mussina | 4.7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 1 |
| J Veras | 0.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| R Villone | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| J Chamberlain | 3.7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 0 |
| L Vizcaino | 0.7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | -1 |
| R Clemens | 2.3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11.57 | 11.57 | -2 |
| R Ohlendorf | 1.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | -2 |
| C Wang | 5.7 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 19.06 | 19.06 | -9 |
RSAA: Runs saved above average
| Player | TRAA |
| A Pettitte | 3 |
| M Rivera | 3 |
| P Hughes | 2 |
| R Cano | 1 |
| K Farnsworth | 1 |
| M Mussina | 1 |
| J Veras | 0 |
| S Duncan | 0 |
| A Rodriguez | 0 |
| R Villone | 0 |
| M Cabrera | 0 |
| B Sardinha | 0 |
| J Chamberlain | 0 |
| J Damon | 0 |
| H Matsui | 0 |
| J Giambi | 0 |
| L Vizcaino | -1 |
| D Mientkiewicz | -1 |
| J Posada | -2 |
| R Clemens | -2 |
| R Ohlendorf | -2 |
| B Abreu | -3 |
| D Jeter | -3 |
| C Wang | -9 |
| Total | -13 |
TRAA: TRAA/RSAA
Monday, October 8, 2007
One More Day
Derek Jeter made an error in top the first inning last night. It wasn’t scored an error, but it was an error. It led to the first Cleveland run of the game and a 1-0 Yankee deficit. In the bottom of the first, after Johnny Damon singled, Jeter hit into the first of his two double plays on the night to stop a Yankee rally before it had a chance to start. No one in the conventional media will call out Jeter for having a horrible day in a game that could have been eliminated his team from the postseason, so that’s why I’m mentioning it.
Roger Clemens was laboring with his command and gave up a second run in the top of the second, this one entirely his fault on a line drive HR to Trot Nixon. In the bottom of the inning Alex Rodriguez hit a single and was erased on another double play, this time by Jorge Posada.
In the top of the third, Clemens walked Travis Hafner and then struck out Victor Martinez, but somewhere along the way he re-aggravated his hamstring, and the Yankees had to go to their bullpen. Clemens gave the team everything he could physically give them, but it wasn’t enough. The Yankees brought in Phil Hughes, who had a mixed rookie season after a couple of years of hype as the Yankees’ crown jewel prospect. Hughes gave up a bloop double to Jhonny Peralta to give the Tribe a 3-0 lead then settled down to pitch 3.2 scoreless innings. Hughes was masterful, mixing in his fastball, slow curve and changeup and hitting his targets consistently, and he kept the Yankees in the game so they could try to rally.
And rally they did. Johnny Damon singled in a run in the third. The Yankees went out meekly in the fourth, but then came the fifth and a four run rally capped by Damon’s three-run HR and the Yankees were up 5-3. Hughes kept the Indians in check while the Yankees padded their lead then Joba Chamberlain pitched the 7th and 8th allowing a single run, and Mariano Rivera closed it out on ten pitches and the Yankees were back in the series at 2-1.
Today the Yankees will go back to Chien-Ming Wang on three days rest. Wang has only pitched once on three days rest in his career, going 4.2 innings and allowing six hits and two runs. He’ll be on a short leash, likely backed up by Mike Mussina, but i like the move. While Chamberlain is likely not available today, everyone else on the team should be. If the Yankees can keep Cleveland to 3-4 runs they should have a fighting chance against Paul Byrd. Then you’re in Game 5 and anything can happen.
And here are your updated ALDS odds playing out the rest of the series on Diamond Mind 1000 times:
Indians in four: 317 times (31.7%)
Indians in five: 357 times (35.7%)
Yankees in five: 326 times (32.6%)
Go Yankees.
Update: According to Peter Abraham, the Yankees have a decision to make.
There’s a new rule that allows teams to replace an injured player in the middle of a playoff series.
There are a few catches, however.
A pitcher can only be replaced by a pitcher and a position player by a position player. Also, any player replaced cannot play in the next series.
So if the Yankees want to, they can replace Roger Clemens with another pitcher.
Seems like a no-brainer to me, but the question is whom they should go with. I could see a case for Ron Villone, Ian Kennedy, Chris Britton, or even Edwar Ramirez. I’d probably take Kennedy.
Update # 2: According to Abraham, it’s Villone.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Indians 12, Yankees 3
It was just one of those nights. Chien-Ming Wang had nothing, and although the Yankee offense did a good job of working deep counts and scratching a few runs off C.C. Sabathia, they blew some chances to really score some runs and knock Sabathia out of the game.
In the first inning, a leadoff HR by Johnny Damon got the Yankees started off. Derek Jeter popped out, then Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez drew walks. Sabathia was laboring and fell behind Jorge Posada 2-0. However, Posada couldn’t deliver even a productive out as he ended up striking out. Hideki Matsui fell behind 0-2 and grounded out and Sabathia was off the hook.
Wang hit Grady Sizemore to lead off the Indians’ half of the first, but a double play made it seem like he was going to get out of the first fairly harmlessly. Then came a walk, two singles, another walk, and a two run single and the Indians had a 3-0 lead.
The Yankees couldn’t score over the next two innings, then the Indians got a leadoff HR from Asdrubal Cabrera in the third. Robinson Cano lined a HR of his own in the top of the fourth and it was a 4-2 game. Wang was shaky all game, and he arguably should have been pulled earlier, but he did pitch a decent fourth inning.
The Yankees tried to rally again in the fifth. Shelley Duncan pinch-hit for Doug Mientkiewicz and singled. Damon walked, and then Jeter worked a full count before flying to right. Bobby Abreu doubled the other way down the third base line to score Duncan, and the Yankees had the tying run on third and the go-ahead run on second with one out. Rodriguez was intentionally walked and again Posada and Matsui were due up with a chance to get the Yankees some runs. Posada took three fastballs out of the zone to jump ahead 3-0, then fouled off a green-light swing and then swung through a fastball, fouled off a fastball, and then swung through another one for strike three. Matsui then popped up a fastball to short after getting ahead 2-0.
Posada and Matsui blew both of the Yankees’ chances at big innings, and that was basically the game. The Yankees got one more hit the rest of the way while Cleveland scored eight runs off Wang, Ross Ohlendorf and Phil Hughes for the easy victory. I’m sure the big story will be how Alex Rodriguez went 0 for 2, and not Posada and Matsui tanking or Jeter going 0 for 4.
It t was a disappointing game, but it’s only one game. Without Wang, Posada, and Matsui’s contributions all season the Yankees aren’t playing in this series.
A split in Cleveland would be a good scenario for the Yankees. If they can win tomorrow they’ll get to go home for two games against Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd, who are possibly even bigger question marks than Roger Clemens or Mike Mussina. It’ll be up to Andy Pettitte to keep them in the game tomorrow. Let’s hope he’s up to it.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Torre announces lineup for Game 1
From the ever vigilant Peter Abraham:
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Doug Mientkiewicz 1B
Chien-Ming Wang RHP
No surprises really. The Yankees also added Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Veras to the bullpen and subtracted Ron Villone. I guess I need to project them both.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
2007 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown - Part Two
For the next part of the ALDS preview, I'm going to look at the starting pitching matchups.Game One:
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Wang | 2007 | 30 | 199.3 | 199 | 9 | 84 | 82 | 59 | 104 | .265 | .322 | .368 |
| Proj | 29 | 187 | 191 | 10 | 81 | 77 | 51 | 82 | .269 | .317 | .371 | |
| Sabathia | 2007 | 34 | 241 | 238 | 20 | 94 | 86 | 37 | 209 | .259 | .289 | .392 |
| Proj | 31 | 212 | 204 | 19 | 90 | 81 | 48 | 181 | .253 | .295 | .382 | |
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | |
| Wang | 2007 | 58.4% | 16.3% | 22.1% | 3.79 | 3.70 | 3.74 | 3.91 | 240 | 119 | 74 | 0.80 |
| Proj | 61.6% | 16.2% | 18.8% | 3.89 | 3.72 | 3.64 | 3.88 | 219 | 128 | 64 | 0.72 | |
| Sabathia | 2007 | 47.6% | 27.2% | 16.5% | 3.51 | 3.21 | 3.09 | 3.18 | 128 | 225 | 126 | 1.08 |
| Proj | 47.7% | 26.1% | 17.5% | 3.81 | 3.45 | 3.49 | 3.40 | 131 | 152 | 126 | 0.81 |
AVG: Opponents' batting average against
OBP: Opponents' on base percentage against
SLG: Opponents' slugging against
GB%: Groundball percentage
FB%: Fly ball percentage
LD%: Line drive percentage
ERA: Earned run average
ERC: Component ERA (31 times OBP times SLG)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
HR+: HRs per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
BB+: BBs per batters faced compared to league average 100 is average, > 100 is better
K+: Ks per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
RS/G: Runs saved per game compared to league average
C.C. Sabathia is going to finish in the top two for Cy Young voting. I'm not sure if he's a more deserving candidate than Josh Beckett when you consider park factor and quality of opposition, but he's a damn good pitcher. Sabathia is a huge lefty who throws in the mid 90s with great control. His walk rate per batters faced was 2.25 times better than the league average. He combined that with a K rate that was 26% than league average. He also suppressed HRs at a rate of 28% better than league average. Sabathia is not a ground ball pitcher, but he has still managed to keep his HR rate low.
Sabathia poses a major hurdle for a Yankee team that is so reliant on their lefty hitters. Over his career, Sabathia doesn't have a huge platoon split (.250/.314/.390 vs righties, .248/.309/.372 vs. lefties). However this year, the numbers are a bit different, .275/.310/.413 vs. righties and .203/.229/.317 vs. lefties.
Sabathia has faced 213 lefty hitters this year. Here's what they've done:
Batters faced: 213
Hits: 41
2B:14
3B:0
HR:3
BB:4
K: 73
Yeah, he has walked about 2% of the lefties he's faced this year and struck out 34% of them.
Sabathia was on a roll as the season ended. In his last 13 starts opponents hit just .229/.270/.326 against him and he averaged 7.3 innings a game with a 2.28 ERA.
So yeah, that's the guy the Yankees have to try and beat in the first game, and it shan't be easy.
I don't expect the Yankees to score much against Sabathia, so it'll be up to his opponent to keep Cleveland off the board. Chien-Ming Wang has had another solid season that is pretty close to what he did last year. Wang's K rate has increased a tick this year, while his HR rate has continued to be great. His control is still above average as well. In 2007, Wang continued his disturbing trend of pitching poorly on the road (career ERA of 4.62 away, 3.02 home). Other than that, he's probably the Yankees' best starter, and pitching him in the first game allows the Yankees to bring him back in game four of the series if they need to.
Game Two:
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Pettitte | 2007 | 36 | 215.3 | 238 | 16 | 106 | 97 | 69 | 141 | .286 | .335 | .415 |
| Proj | 33 | 203 | 211 | 19 | 94 | 84 | 60 | 152 | .271 | .315 | .411 | |
| Carmona | 2007 | 32 | 215 | 199 | 16 | 78 | 73 | 61 | 137 | .248 | .306 | .352 |
| Proj | 35 | 155 | 151 | 13 | 64 | 61 | 48 | 103 | .259 | .319 | .373 | |
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | |
| Pettitte | 2007 | 49.5% | 24.5% | 20.1% | 4.43 | 4.05 | 3.82 | 4.00 | 150 | 113 | 90 | 0.30 |
| Proj | 51.0% | 24.2% | 19.1% | 4.14 | 3.73 | 4.02 | 3.76 | 130 | 121 | 108 | 0.50 | |
| Carmona | 2007 | 64.8% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 3.27 | 3.06 | 3.87 | 3.67 | 144 | 123 | 91 | 1.21 |
| Proj | 63.8% | 17.9% | 14.3% | 3.74 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 4.02 | 141 | 113 | 96 | 0.57 |
Fausto Carmona is basically Chien-Ming Wang with more grounders, more Ks and more HRs allowed. He's got the same type of hard sinker with excellent velocity. Carmona is worse against lefties (.280/.344/.395 vs lefties career vs. .241/.309/.358 vs righties).
Andy Pettitte finished up the second half strong before an awful tune-up start that pushed his ERA over 4. Pettitte has a reputation as a big game pitcher, but he's been pretty inconsistent in the postseason.
I am worried about both of these matchups but for different reasons. I have confidence that Wang will pitch pretty well in the first game, but I really don't know if the Yankees will be able to touch Sabathia. For the second game I'm less worried about the Yankees scratching a few runs off Carmona and more worried about Pettitte imploding. I'd sign up for a split right now.
Game Three:
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Westbrook | 2007 | 25 | 152 | 159 | 13 | 78 | 73 | 55 | 93 | .276 | .332 | .386 |
| Proj | 30 | 188 | 202 | 15 | 97 | 88 | 56 | 105 | .278 | .325 | .394 | |
| Clemens | 2007 | 18 | 99 | 99 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 31 | 68 | .261 | .321 | .393 |
| Proj | 23 | 137 | 123 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 41 | 117 | .244 | .302 | .353 | |
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | |
| Westbrook | 2007 | 55.7% | 21.3% | 18.8% | 4.62 | 4.32 | 4.19 | 4.07 | 131 | 100 | 84 | 0.18 |
| Proj | 61.0% | 18.9% | 16.2% | 4.63 | 4.20 | 3.96 | 4.06 | 147 | 123 | 80 | 0.17 | |
| Clemens | 2007 | 48.4% | 26.6% | 20.6% | 4.73 | 4.18 | 4.10 | 4.13 | 123 | 115 | 95 | 0.09 |
| Proj | 50.7% | 26.9% | 16.5% | 3.68 | 3.38 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 169 | 113 | 126 | 0.81 |
On paper this game seems like an edge to the Yankees, but Clemens hasn't pitched since September 16 and will be coming off a hamstring injury. I'd guess that Clemens will be on a short leash with Phil Hughes waiting in the wings and that the Yankees should be able to get a few runs off Westbrook.
Game Four:(If necessary)
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Byrd | 2007 | 31 | 192.3 | 239 | 27 | 107 | 98 | 28 | 88 | .301 | .323 | .473 |
| Proj | 30 | 183 | 221 | 25 | 104 | 90 | 30 | 90 | .295 | .321 | .464 | |
| Mussina | 2007 | 28 | 152 | 188 | 14 | 90 | 87 | 35 | 91 | .311 | .343 | .464 |
| Proj | 30 | 172 | 188 | 19 | 90 | 84 | 38 | 130 | .278 | .316 | .426 | |
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | |
| Byrd | 2007 | 40.1% | 29.9% | 21.7% | 5.01 | 4.59 | 4.59 | 4.35 | 81 | 254 | 62 | -0.09 |
| Proj | 40.5% | 31.4% | 19.6% | 5.09 | 4.44 | 4.62 | 4.53 | 91 | 228 | 69 | -0.15 | |
| Mussina | 2007 | 43.5% | 28.7% | 20.3% | 5.33 | 5.15 | 3.93 | 4.15 | 123 | 160 | 81 | -0.27 |
| Proj | 44.2% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 4.70 | 4.38 | 4.17 | 3.85 | 108 | 158 | 108 | 0.11 |
I'd be lying if I said I had any confidence in Mussina pitching well in this game. That being said, the opponent is Paul Byrd, who peripherals aren't any better than Moose's. I'd expect a slugfest and a battle of the bullpens here. I could also see the Yankees or Indians bringing back Wang or Sabathia in this game if they are down 2-1 in the series, so who knows what will happen if it gets this far.
I'd give Cleveland the edge in the first two games and the Yankees the edge in games three and four.
Tomorrow, the bullpens...
Friday, September 28, 2007
NY Daily News: Wang and Pettitte are Bombers’ 1-2 punch in playoffs
ST. PETERSBURG - The Yankees won’t announce their rotation for the division series until the matchups are officially set, but Joe Torre stated the obvious yesterday, saying that Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte will pitch the first two games one way or another.
“It’s either going to be Wang and Pettitte or Pettitte and Wang,” Torre said. “We’re still talking about it. Neither one of them have an opinion on what they want. They don’t care.”
Wang is the favorite to start the opener, having made his final start of the season on Wednesday night. The Yankees will open the postseason either on Wednesday or Thursday, which already will be two or three days’ extra rest for Wang.
They’ve been the Yankees’ two best starters this year, so it’s the logical move.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Picking the 2007 Postseason Roster
Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs, I can finally talk about the postseason roster. With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster. Here’s a look at the candidates, with the players on the bubble separated out.
Starting Pitchers(4)
Andy Pettitte
Roger Clemens
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Relief Pitchers(5)
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
Kyle Farnsworth
Luis Vizcaino
On the Bubble
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Tyler Clippard
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Sean Henn
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Ian Kennedy
Ross Ohlendorf
Edwar Ramirez
Catchers(2)
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada
Infielders(5)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Doug Mientkiewicz
Alex Rodriguez
Wilson Betemit
On the Bubble
Alberto Gonzalez
Outfielders (5)
Bobby Abreu
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Shelley Duncan
Hideki Matsui
On the Bubble
Bronson Sardinha
Designated Hitters(1)
Jason Giambi
There are 22 players I consider locks to make the roster, four starting pitchers, five relievers, two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders, and one DH. That gives the Yanks three slots to fill. If it were up to me, I’d take two more pitchers and one position player.
The position player seems like an easy choice to me, if choosing between Alberto Gonzalez or Bronson Sardinha I’d take the more valuable defensive player. Either can pinch-run, but Gonzalez gives the Yankees a little more depth in case of multiple injuries to their starting infielders.
The pitching situation is a little less clear-cut. Phil Hughes slots in as a long reliever, but the rest of the choices are mainly short relievers and that’s a concern with a gimpy Roger Clemens and Mike “Box of Chocolates” Mussina taking two starts. Because of this, one of the extra relievers should probably be someone who can pitch multiple innings. Out of the players on the bubble, the best choices for that kind of role in my mind are Kei Igawa or Ron Villone. Neither inspires much confidence, but we have to remember that you don’t have to win every single game in the playoffs, you just have to win 3 or 4 before your opponent does. If Clemens can’t go past the second inning, odds are the game is lost but you don’t want to have to burn out your bullpen either. The off days built into the schedule mitigate that to some degree. The other thing the Yankees should do is break up Pettitte and Wang. Since they’ll be starting on the road, I’d start Pettitte in game one, Clemens in game two, and Wang in game three at home. However, to be safe I think the Yankees should take Igawa. I know he hasn’t been good this year, but he could come into a game in the early innings and pitch 5 or 6 innings and put the Yankees in a position to win the next game. Now all the readers can proceed to tell me I’m insane.
That leaves one other pitcher to take. Ian Kennedy’s hurt so scratch him. Realistically it comes down to taking one of Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Villone, Ross Ohlendorf or Edwar Ramirez.
Britton - had success in the AL East last year and did well in AAA this season. For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to be well-regarded by the organization right now, and his stuff isn’t really that great for a short reliever.
Bruney - You know the deal with this guy. Great fastball, horrendous command.
Veras - See Bruney, although with a slightly better breaking pitch. I swear I have not seen Veras hit the catcher’s target on a single pitch yet this season.
Villone - Chock full of veterany-goodness. Hasn’t been horrible this year, but his control scares the hell out of me and he has a very high likelihood to implode in any given outing.
Ohlendorf - He’s looked pretty good so far in the majors, but it’s only been three innings. He’s got good stuff but his minor league numbers are pretty bad, but he was injured for much of the year and converted from a starter to a reliever so that should be considered.
Ramirez - I was pulling like hell for Edwar to come up the majors and succeed, but he still needs to work on his approach IMO. Until he can consistently get ahead in the count and make optimal use of his killer changeup, I wouldn’t have any faith in him in a tight spot. He does have strikeout ability (29 Ks in 19.3 innings), but he also has giving up HR ability (6 in 19.3 innings). He’s probably pitched himself off the postseason roster at this point.
Not a very inspiring bunch. I’d imagine we’ll get a healthy dose of all of these guys over the last four games of the year to see if one becomes a hot hand. I find Ohlendorf the most intriguing of this group, so he’d probably be my pick.
I’d like to see what other people would do instead of me, so let’s hear it…
Monday, September 10, 2007
You say Posada, I say Posado
With yesterday’s 6-3 victory over the KC Royals, the Yankees were able to complete a very important sweep. With Detroit and Seattle playing head to head, winning all three games meant the Yanks picked up two more games on Seattle and a game on Detroit in the wild card race. As bleak as the Yankees chances are at the division, that’s how good their wild card shot is. Baseball Prospectus’s front page playoff odds report shows the Yankees at 94.6% favorites to make the postseason.
There’s not much more I can say about Alex Rodriguez. He’s the best player in baseball this year, and after I dared say that the difference between him and Magglio Ordonez was within the margin of error he’s homered in five straight games to shut me up good. He now has 52 HRs and 140 RBI on the season.
Lost in Rodriguez’s monster weekend has been Jorge Posada’s continued excellence this year. Posada still continues to fly under the radar, amongst Yankee fans and baseball fans in general. Part of it is that catchers just don’t get the proper recognition for how difficult their job is. Part of it prior to this season was that Posada’s strengths were often in secondary categories like OBP which aren’t necessarily appreciated as much as they should be. Let’s put Posada’s season in perspective.
The average AL catcher is hitting: .255/.318/.398
Jorge Posada is hitting: .336/.421/.549
The average AL catcher would be worth around 70 runs over 650 plate appearances.
Jorge Posada’s current line would be worth 130 runs over 650 plate appearances.
If Alex Rodriguez wasn’t having a season for the ages, Posada would be a very deserving MVP candidate, maybe a notch behind Magglio Ordonez.
Chien-Ming Wang picked up win number 18, going seven innings and allowing three runs. Aside from an inexplicable loss of control in the fourth, Wang was great. He’s got 3 or 4 starts left and has a shot at 20 wins, which isn’t really all that meaningful sabermetrically but it’d be a nice thing for Wang to get. Sort of how I know that hitting .300 isn’t really all that meaningful but I really want Robinson Cano to end up there.
No game today, then it’s off to Toronto for a crucial series against a team that scares me a little. The Blue Jays are second in the AL in ERA (team ERA+ of 117) and have played the Yankees fairly tough this season. The Tigers will be home for three games against the Rangers so the Yankees can’t afford to slip here.
Update:
Thanks to yfinBrazil‘s question, I thought it’d be interesting to look at a graphical representation of the Yankees playoff odds according to Baseball Prospectus.
And just for kicks, here are the high, average, and low for each of the three systems:
Regular
MIN 9.36722
AVG 32.76715735
MAX 85.52173
PECOTA
MIN: 12.89139
AVG: 41.80332819
MAX: 86.45607
ELO
MIN: 15.91561
AVG: 43.63803697
MAX: 93.08892
Friday, September 7, 2007
NY Daily News: Yanks’ hopes rest on rookie arms and pitching by committee
There have been glimmers of hope that the rotation will roll, like when Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Chien-Ming Wang combined for a 1.80 ERA in last month’s sweep of the Red Sox. But three of the next four starts, including one apiece by Pettitte and Clemens, were duds.
“It’s amazing how quickly it can look ugly, right?” Pettitte said.
But that downturn was followed by good outings from Wang and Phil Hughes. Tonight, Ian Kennedy, who had a fabulous debut last weekend against Tampa Bay, starts against the Royals.
Kennedy and Hughes give the Yankees two rookies in their rotation, spots that used to be held by more experienced, playoff-hardened pitchers.
I’d rather see rookies like Hughes and Kennedy out there than Jaret Wright starting an elimination game in the playoffs, but I’m weird like that.
Seriously, Pettitte and Wang should be a decent 1-2 punch, then you just throw in the pitchers who are throwing the best at the end of the season in the 3-4 slots, be it Clemens, Kennedy, Hughes, or (snicker) Moose. If the Yankees make the playoffs that is, which I’m still not sure about.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Yankees 12, Mariners 3: Yankees’ Wang too much for Mariners
Well, they needed that one. It was actually a close game until the bottom of the sixth. Hopefully the seventh inning fireworks are a sign of things to come.
Alex Rodriguez is the AL MVP, and it’s not particularly close. The question that’s starting to get more interesting is if Chien-Ming Wang may steal the Cy Young. He doesn’t really deserve it right now, but he does lead the AL in wins. If he ends up as the only 20 game winner in the AL he could steal it.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Heading West
A little over a week ago I went through the Yankee schedule through August 30 and concluded that the Yankees should be expected to go 10-10 or 11-9 over that stretch, using Bill James's Log5 method and the teams' winning percentages, both actual and pythagorean.| Date | Opp | W% | Pyth% | aW | aL | pW | pL |
| Fri, 8/10 | @Indians | 0.582 | 0.566 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Sat, 8/11 | @Indians | 0.582 | 0.566 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Sun, 8/12 | @Indians | 0.582 | 0.566 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Mon, 8/13 | Orioles | 0.449 | 0.483 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Tue, 8/14 | Orioles | 0.449 | 0.483 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Wed, 8/15 | Orioles | 0.449 | 0.483 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Thu, 8/16 | Tigers | 0.542 | 0.541 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| Fri, 8/17 | Tigers | 0.542 | 0.541 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| Sat, 8/18 | Tigers | 0.542 | 0.541 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| Sun, 8/19 | Tigers | 0.542 | 0.541 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | ||||
| Actual | 7 | 3 |
W%: Opponent's winning percentage
Pyth%: Opponent's pythagorean winning percentage
aW: Expected log5 wins based on actual winning percentage
aL: Expected log 5 losses based on actual winning percentage
pW: Expected log5 wins based on Pythagorean winning percentage
pL: Expected log 5 losses based on Pythagorean winning percentage
We're about halfway through that stretch now, and the Yankees went 7-3. We'd have expected them to go either 6-4 or 5-5 so they outplayed expectations by one or two games, which is good.
The next stretch will see seven road games and then three home games against Boston. Here's how Log5 says that stretch should play out.
| Date | Opp | W% | Pyth% | aW | aL | pW | pL |
| Mon, 8/20 | @Angels | 0.606 | 0.578 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Tue, 8/21 | @Angels | 0.606 | 0.578 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Wed, 8/22 | @Angels | 0.606 | 0.578 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Fri, 8/24 | @Tigers | 0.563 | 0.558 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Sat, 8/25 | @Tigers | 0.563 | 0.558 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Sun, 8/26 | @Tigers | 0.563 | 0.558 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Mon, 8/27 | @Tigers | 0.563 | 0.558 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| Tue, 8/28 | Red Sox | 0.579 | 0.619 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Wed, 8/29 | Red Sox | 0.579 | 0.619 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Thu, 8/30 | Red Sox | 0.579 | 0.619 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | ||||
| Actual | ? | ? |
Today's win was an important one, not just because of the win, but because some of the people who contributed. As I ran through on Saturday, the best version of the Yankee lineup has Wilson Betemit at first base, at least against righties. Betemit went two for five and drove in four runs in his bid to cement more playing time. Hopefully he gets it.
We all know how great Joba Chamberlain is already, but the question of who will be getting the innings he doesn't pitch is going to go a long way towards determing how the last 1/4 of the season goes. Edwar Ramirez has been great in his return from the minors. Joe Torre acknowledged that he did not use Ramirez properly in his first go-around, but he appears to be making amends towards that now.
All's not great, as Chien-Ming Wang was a little shaky, but it should be noted that Detroit is a strong offensive team and even if it wasn't pretty, it was six innings and three runs, which qualifies as a quality start. I'm still not sure Wang's completely healthy, but he's better than whomever would take his spot if he was hurt, so it's a moot point to think that he should be DL'ed right now.
The series coming up with the Angels is huge. If the Yankees can knock the Angels down a little, they can make the AL West a tight race and perhaps put themselves in a better position for the Wild card. Seattle and LA of A play each other seven times over the rest of the season, so that's four games the Yankees can pick up on one or the other. Since Seattle apparently has 40 games left against the Chicago White Sox, the Yankees can't wait for them to lose on their own. I know the common belief is that Seattle's not that good, but I think a blanket look at their run differential is going to give a false impression of them. They're a good team that's got blown out a few times. They're not going anywhere as far as I'm concerned.
Update: Someone emailed me asking about an MLE for Edwar. I posted one in a thread a while back, but here it is for those who may not have seen that. An MLE is a major league equivalency, which is a translation of a minor league performance to the majors. It's a tool that can be useful but has some limitations, because not all physical talent translates the same across leagues.
| Team | Last | First | Year | Org | MERA | G | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | K |
| Trenton | Ramirez | Edwar | 2007 | NYA | 3.94 | 9 | 16.0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| Scranton | Ramirez | Edwar | 2007 | NYA | 2.31 | 25 | 39.0 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 16 | 49 |
| New York | Ramirez | Edwar | 2007 | NYA | 5.40 | 5 | 6.7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| Total | 3.06 | 39 | 61.7 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 31 | 81 |
I'd take a line like that from a setup guy.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
WWWW & WWWMW™
What's Wrong with Wang?| Date | GS | W | L | IP | TBF | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB | BABIP |
| 5/24-7/13 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 104.3 | 418 | 98 | 6 | 39 | 39 | 48 | 27 | 0.275 |
| 7/14-8/13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 41.0 | 183 | 54 | 1 | 27 | 27 | 21 | 10 | 0.356 |
| Date | FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RS | Stk% |
| 5/24-7/13 | 23.4% | 58.7% | 18.0% | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.80 | 4.13 | 0.08 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 18.1 | 62.0% |
| 7/14-8/13 | 24.8% | 57.0% | 18.1% | 5.93 | 5.93 | 3.22 | 4.20 | 0.03 | 2.2 | 4.6 | -4.6 | 61.9% |
Update: Here's a break-down of the stats in Wang's starts, splitting between quality starts (at least 6 innings, no more than 3 runs allowed) and non quality starts.
| Type | GS | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | Pit | Stk | Stk% |
| QS | 14 | 12 | 2 | 99.3 | 87 | 2 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 54 | 1407 | 888 | 63.1% |
| non-QS | 8 | 1 | 4 | 46.0 | 65 | 5 | 42 | 42 | 14 | 15 | 684 | 408 | 59.6% |
| Type | TBF | FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RS | BABIP |
| QS | 396 | 22.9% | 60.8% | 16.2% | 2.17 | 2.17 | 3.07 | 3.84 | 0.03 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 30.3 | 0.271 |
| non-QS | 205 | 25.4% | 53.3% | 21.3% | 8.22 | 8.22 | 4.87 | 4.80 | 0.12 | 2.7 | 2.9 | -16.8 | 0.355 |
Stk% : Strike percentage
FB% : Fly ball percentage
GB% : Ground ball percentage
LD% : Line drive percentage
FIP : Fielding Independent Pitching
xFIP : Expected Fielding Independent Pitching
HR/FB : HR per fly ball (league average is around 11%)
RS : Runs saved above average
BABIP : Batting average on balls in play
TBF : Total batters faced
His peripherals stats are basically the same. GB%, LD%, Stk%. His BABIP has shot up from .275 to .356, which is abnormally high. He should be fine.
And yes, it's What's Wrong With Mariano Week™. The worst time of the year to be a Yankee fan, although they've managed to win both games where Mariano gave up a run anyway. It happens every year, although I thought we got it out of the way in April. I blame myself for writing about how great Mo has been lately, and I apologize. I shouldn't have to tell you that Mo will be fine, I think you know this.
Great win last night, 7-6 over the Orioles. If there's a more exciting play than a walk-off fielder's choice, I wouldn't know it.
I could not have been more wrong about Joba being added to the Yankee pen, and I'm ecstatic about it. What a bad-ass.
I'm still trying to figure out the best way to integrate the different pieces on the Yankee roster into the lineup but I'm having major issues at work so it may take a few more days to get posted.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
A Good Old Fashioned Drubbing
In a start reminiscent of the halcyon days of Kei Igawa, Chien-Ming Wang got torched by the Blue Jays yesterday, and the Yankees fell to Toronto 15-4.How bad was it? It was the most runs Wang has ever given up in a game, and the fewest innings of any start of his career. His K/9 of 10.1 was killer, so that's something..
Good starters have bad games, but I'm still a little concerned that Wang's fingernail is bothering him. There's not much the Yankees can do about that for now though.
As much as it sucks, the Yankees will lose some games over the rest of the season. The important thing is that they have been taking series, home and road, and for the most part picking up ground. The story of the season is probably going to be told over the next three weeks and this 20 game stretch.
| Date | Opponent | W% | Pyth% | aW | aL | pW | pL |
| Fri, 8/10 | at Indians | 0.582 | 0.567 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Sat, 8/11 | at Indians | 0.582 | 0.567 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Sun, 8/12 | at Indians | 0.582 | 0.567 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| Mon, 8/13 | Orioles | 0.443 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Tue, 8/14 | Orioles | 0.443 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Wed, 8/15 | Orioles | 0.443 | 0.48 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.63 | 0.37 |
| Thu, 8/16 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Fri, 8/17 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Sat, 8/18 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Sun, 8/19 | Tigers | 0.536 | 0.537 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| Mon, 8/20 | at Angels | 0.606 | 0.577 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Tue, 8/21 | at Angels | 0.606 | 0.577 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Wed, 8/22 | at Angels | 0.606 | 0.577 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Fri, 8/24 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Sat, 8/25 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Sun, 8/26 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Mon, 8/27 | at Tigers | 0.576 | 0.577 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Tue, 8/28 | Red Sox | 0.585 | 0.619 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Wed, 8/29 | Red Sox | 0.585 | 0.619 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Thu, 8/30 | Red Sox | 0.585 | 0.619 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| Total | 0.555 | 0.559 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
W%: Opponent's winning percentage
Pyth%: Opponent's pythagorean winning percentage
aW: Expected log5 wins based on actual winning percentage
aL: Expected log 5 losses based on actual winning percentage
pW: Expected log5 wins based on Pythagorean winning percentage
pL: Expected log 5 losses based on Pythagorean winning percentage
The chart above uses Bill James's log5 method to figure out the expected results of every game. There is a home field advantage of .040 to every team's winning percentage factored in here. Actual winning percentage is self explanatory. For those who are not familiar with Pythagorean winning percentage, it's a way to look at the run differential of a team and calculate an expected winning percentage and is typically a better indicator of a team's quality than actual winning percentage. The formula for it is:
RS ^ 1.83
----------------
RS^1.83 + RA^1.83
where RS = runs scored and RA = runs allowed.
The Orioles are the only weak team in the bunch, but they match up well against the Yankees due to their solid left-handed pitching. Realistically, we shouldn't expect much better than 10-10 or 11-9 over this stretch. I'd be happy with 11-9. After that the schedule gets a lot easier. Tomorrow, I'll post a revised playoff outlook.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
2007 Yankee Defense at the All Star Break
Wrapping up my All Star Break review of the Yankees so far, here's how their defense rates by zone rating. If you want to read a good explanation about zone rating, you should read this article by Chris Dial, but I am going to run through an example as well, to try and clarify exactly what the numbers that will follow mean.I could pick on Derek Jeter, but I'm not going to go there. Instead I'm going to look at the brightest spot on the Yankee defense so far, Robinson Cano. We all know Cano's been a disappointment on offense, but let's look at his defense.
To help clarify the numbers I'm about to run through, here's the Stats Inc. Zone Rating grid, with the 2B area of responsiblity highlighted.
Any ball hit in that highlighted area that is converted into an out at least 50% of the time is considered a fieldable chance for a second baseman. This is based on observation by Stats Inc. scorers, but there are three people scoring these at every game and they score them independently to help cut down on subjectivity.
When a fielder has a ball hit into their zone of responsiblity, they are given a fieldable chance, which is the denominator in ZR. When they convert that into an out, it's considered a play made. When a fielder makes a play that is not his defined zone, it gets added to his chances and plays made so they get credit for it. The question is if they get enough credit for doing so, which is one limitation of zone rating. Another limitation is the zones of responsiblity are fixed, and do not account for positioning. This is a limitation when trying to assess a player's actual talent, but as far as their value in any given time, I don't think it's much of one. If a player is not put into position to make more plays than he is, that means they are not as valuable to their team as they should be, regardless of who is responsible for the positioning.
ZR is expressed as a three digit decimal from 0 to 1, and it's just plays made divided by fieldable chances. So if a player has 10 fieldable chances hit into his defined zone and converts 8 of them into outs, his ZR is .800. Plays are either made or not made in ZR. If a player makes an error, it's no worse than if their range never let them get to the ball in the first place.
So let's get back to Cano. Cano has played 84 games this season, and 747 defensive innings at second base. He has seen 274 fieldable chances, and has a ZR of .880. So we multiply his fieldable chances by .880 to get his plays made, which is 241.
The next thing we do is multiply the chances that Cano has had times the average ZR, to get an average plays made. This assumes that the types of chances a player faces over the course of a period are the same, and it's not necessarily true. Players could have stretches where they face easier chances or more difficult chances, which is why you will see players' defensive numbers fluctuate from season. Again, I consider this a limitation when trying to assess a player's ability, but not their value. This is the type of thing that should even out over time, which makes multi-year zone rating a decent gauge of a player's defensive talent.
In the American League, the average 2B has a ZR of .831. I separate the leagues because I've noticed systemic differences in the infields, and I assume it's at least partly due to pitchers "hitting." So, using the .831 avg ZR times Cano's 274 chances, we get an average plays made of 228. We subtract this from Cano's actual plays made to get a difference. 241 - 228 = 13, so Cano has converted 13 more plays into outs than average. This difference is then multiplied by the average run value of a play at that position, which was calculated by Dial and is based on the linear weights values of the single or XBH that the play would turn into if it is not made, as well as the marginal value of the out that was not recorded.
Here are the run values for the average plays at each position.
POS RV
1B: .798
2B: .754
3B: .800
CF: .842
LF: .831
RF: .843
SS: .753
For 2B, the average play is worth .754 runs, so we multiply that by Cano's +13 plays made and get a runs saved above average of 10. To calculate this over a full season, you just divide the runs saved by the innings played and multiply by 1440 innings.
Credit for this methodology goes to Chris Dial and his article Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Zone Rating and to Chone Smith and his article Tweaking Zone Rating. Without them breaking zone rating down this clearly for me I never would have been able to understand it.
The same basic idea is used for figuring out all players except pitchers and catchers, and here are the numbers for the Yanks.
| Player | TM | LG | Pos | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | DP | Ch | PM | ZR | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 84 | 84 | 747 | 178 | 271 | 6 | 78 | 274 | 241 | .880 | .831 | 228 | 13 | 10 | 19 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 83 | 83 | 724 | 63 | 149 | 5 | 15 | 207 | 168 | .812 | .762 | 158 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | CF | 59 | 48 | 445 | 154 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 152 | .916 | .889 | 148 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | LF | 18 | 16 | 142 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 31 | .912 | .872 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 3B | 7 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | .900 | .762 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 45 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | SS | 8 | 2 | 36.2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | .889 | .824 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 35 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1.000 | .859 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | .859 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Giambi, Jason | NYY | AL | 1B | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | .842 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | .762 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 0 | 4.1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieves, Wil | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .762 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | CF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .889 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | SS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .824 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | LF | 4 | 1 | 13.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | .833 | .872 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -21 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 1B | 13 | 10 | 90.1 | 85 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 16 | 13 | .813 | .842 | 13 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | .750 | .831 | 7 | -1 | 0 | -41 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | LF | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .872 | 3 | -1 | -1 | -57 |
| Phelps, Josh | NYY | AL | 1B | 29 | 20 | 162.2 | 167 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 22 | .815 | .842 | 23 | -1 | -1 | -5 |
| Abreu, Bobby | NYY | AL | RF | 84 | 81 | 720 | 156 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 156 | .852 | .859 | 157 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .872 | 3 | -2 | -1 | -215 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | CF | 41 | 38 | 318 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 104 | .874 | .889 | 106 | -2 | -1 | -7 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | NYY | AL | 1B | 48 | 36 | 330.1 | 353 | 14 | 2 | 46 | 59 | 47 | .797 | .842 | 50 | -3 | -2 | -9 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 1B | 21 | 17 | 155.1 | 161 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 42 | 32 | .762 | .842 | 35 | -3 | -3 | -25 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYY | AL | LF | 68 | 67 | 586.1 | 131 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 127 | .836 | .872 | 132 | -5 | -5 | -11 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 84 | 83 | 726.1 | 128 | 246 | 13 | 69 | 295 | 227 | .769 | .824 | 243 | -16 | -12 | -24 |
| Total | 678 | 601 | 5345.2 | 1765 | 748 | 42 | 261 | 1633 | 1370 | .839 | .840 | 1371 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
Legend
INN - Innings
PO - Putouts
A - Assists
E - Errors
DP - Double plays
Ch - Fieldable chances
PM - Plays made
ZR - Zone Rating
AvgZR - Average ZR
AvgPM - Average PM
Diff - PM minus AvgPM
RS - Runs saved
RS/162 - Runs saved pro-rated to 162 games
So yeah, Cano's been great. Also great, Alex Rodriguez, who has rebounded from two sub-par years at third after a solid 2004 defensively. Melky's flashing a plus glove in LF and CF and this doesn't even include his arm.
The rest of the numbers seem to match my observations pretty well, although I'd have pegged Abreu to be a little worse and Matsui to be a bit better. This is part of the reason I've grown fond of zone rating. It's freely available, it's easy to convert to runs, and for the most part the players I think are good and bad defenders show up as such in ZR.
These numbers are not meant to be an absolute assessment of either a players' defensive ability or value. First of all, we're dealing with a small sample size. The difference between Jeter being average or horrible is about one play a week. Second of all, as I've listed above, there are limitations in zone rating which need to be acknowledged and understood. Over at Bronx Banter the other day there was a heated discussion about defensive metrics and their pros and cons. The way I described it to someone over there is this. Let's say you have a group of hitters, and the only thing you know about him is their batting averages. Would you prefer to use your visual observations of the players' abilities and whether they have good at bats, or would you rather use batting average to determine their skill at least partially, even acknowledging that batting average has limitations? That's kind of where I think defensive metrics should fall into place.
For catchers, I use a combination of passed balls and stolen base percentage. It's not a great method because pitchers deserve some of the blame for stolen bases, but again, if we think of it in terms of value instead of ability it's better than nothing.
| NAME | GP | GS | INN | TC | PO | A | E | DP | FPCT | PB | SB | CS | CS% | CERA | RS | RS/150 |
| Jorge Posada, NYY | 77 | 68 | 621 | 427 | 394 | 30 | 3 | 2 | .993 | 3 | 61 | 19 | 0.24 | 4.42 | -3 | -7 |
| Wil Nieves, NYY | 21 | 18 | 142 | 105 | 99 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .990 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.23 | 4.12 | -1 | -5 |
| Josh Phelps, NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Posada's defense has typically been average or slightly below, but he was great last year. He's back below average this year, but he's hitting more than well enough to compensate. Wil Nieves has a wonderful smile, which is apparently all he needs to have to be the Yankees' backup catcher.
With the pitching, offense and defense all assessed it's time to see where everyone on the Yankees ranks in terms of overall value, so here you go.
| Last | BR | DR | PR | TR |
| Rodriguez | 33 | 8 | 42 | |
| Wang | 18 | 18 | ||
| Posada | 19 | -3 | 16 | |
| Bruney | 8 | 8 | ||
| Cano | -2 | 10 | 8 | |
| Myers | 7 | 7 | ||
| Clemens | 6 | 6 | ||
| Matsui | 8 | -5 | 4 | |
| Rivera | 3 | 3 | ||
| Villone | 3 | 3 | ||
| Jeter | 15 | -12 | 2 | |
| Pettitte | 2 | 2 | ||
| Hughes | 2 | 2 | ||
| Britton | 2 | 2 | ||
| Giambi | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Proctor | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cabrera | -5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Mussina | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ramirez | 0 | 0 | ||
| Phillips | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Basak | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rasner | -1 | -1 | ||
| Thompson | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Pavano | -1 | -1 | ||
| Henn | -1 | -1 | ||
| Farnsworth | -1 | -1 | ||
| Bean | -2 | -2 | ||
| Wright | -3 | -3 | ||
| Vizcaino | -3 | -3 | ||
| Desalvo | -3 | -3 | ||
| Phelps | -3 | -1 | -4 | |
| Clippard | -4 | -4 | ||
| Karstens | -5 | -5 | ||
| Damon | -4 | -3 | -6 | |
| Cairo | -5 | -2 | -7 | |
| Abreu | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Nieves | -7 | -1 | -8 | |
| Mientkiewicz | -6 | -2 | -8 | |
| Igawa | -13 | -13 | ||
| Total | 38 | -6 | 15 | 47 |
BR = Batting runs
DR = Defensive runs
PR = Pitching runs
TR = Total runs
I'd take Bruney and Myers's high ranking with a big grain of salt. It may be better to use a linear weights type formula for relievers' value to the team since ERA or RA can hide their performances with inherited runners.
I was surprised to see that Cano's defense makes him such a plus contributor, but I guess that's the case at least by this methodology. If you want to get angry, you can figure out how much the "contributions" of Abreu, Mientkiewicz and Igawa have cost the team this year.
Monday, July 9, 2007
Yankee Pitching at the All Star Break
I'm still mad about Saturday's game, but we must soldier on I guess. Anyway, the All Star Break is a good time to catch up on the team's performances to this point. I think I've been neglecting pitching this season because of how much "fun" it's been harping on the offense and defense, so today I'm going to look at the pitching staff so far. First, here are the Yankees pitchers sorted by most valuable to least valuable by runs saved above average. Read after the chart for explanations of all the columns.| Last | RSAA | G | IP | Hit | HR | BB | K | ERA | RA | FIP | ERC | ERA+ |
| Wang | 18 | 15 | 104.3 | 98 | 6 | 27 | 48 | 3.36 | 3.36 | 3.98 | 3.53 | 128 |
| Bruney | 8 | 39 | 35 | 28 | 2 | 25 | 27 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 4.69 | 3.70 | 168 |
| Myers | 7 | 41 | 31 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 2.61 | 2.61 | 5.04 | 3.57 | 165 |
| Clemens | 6 | 7 | 39.7 | 34 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.87 | 3.00 | 119 |
| Rivera | 3 | 32 | 34 | 33 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.15 | 3.09 | 116 |
| Villone | 3 | 14 | 19.3 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 3.26 | 3.26 | 3.78 | 2.28 | 132 |
| Pettitte | 2 | 20 | 112.3 | 127 | 8 | 34 | 62 | 4.25 | 4.73 | 4.00 | 4.40 | 102 |
| Hughes | 2 | 2 | 10.7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 3.37 | 3.37 | 2.33 | 1.80 | 128 |
| Britton | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 5.67 | 0.91 | 240 |
| Proctor | 1 | 45 | 47.7 | 40 | 4 | 24 | 34 | 3.59 | 4.34 | 4.38 | 3.52 | 120 |
| Mussina | 0 | 14 | 78 | 83 | 10 | 17 | 49 | 4.62 | 4.85 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 93 |
| Ramirez | 0 | 2 | 2.3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 2.41 | 5.32 | 112 |
| Rasner | -1 | 6 | 24.7 | 29 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 4.01 | 5.11 | 5.70 | 5.12 | 108 |
| Pavano | -1 | 2 | 11.3 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4.76 | 5.56 | 4.24 | 3.86 | 91 |
| Henn | -1 | 17 | 19.3 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 4.66 | 5.12 | 5.28 | 3.62 | 93 |
| Farnsworth | -1 | 37 | 34.3 | 38 | 3 | 16 | 23 | 4.46 | 4.98 | 4.46 | 4.20 | 97 |
| Bean | -2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12.00 | 12.00 | 6.93 | 8.16 | 36 |
| Wright | -3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7.88 | 7.88 | 12.14 | 9.85 | 55 |
| Vizcaino | -3 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 3 | 31 | 29 | 5.02 | 5.23 | 4.29 | 4.21 | 86 |
| Desalvo | -3 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 5.87 | 6.26 | 6.35 | 6.30 | 74 |
| Clippard | -4 | 6 | 27 | 29 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 6.33 | 6.33 | 6.60 | 5.81 | 68 |
| Karstens | -5 | 2 | 4.3 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14.54 | 14.54 | 7.19 | 10.79 | 30 |
| Igawa | -13 | 9 | 46.7 | 52 | 11 | 23 | 33 | 7.14 | 7.33 | 6.59 | 5.84 | 60 |
| Total | 15 | 366.0 | 763.9 | 760 | 80 | 305 | 466 | 4.36 | 4.62 | 4.66 | 4.32 | 98 |
RSAA is runs saved above average, which I calculate by subracting the pitcher's runs allowed average from the league average runs allowed average, dividing by nine and then multiplying times innings pitched. Starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers, as relievers collectively have an RA of about .5 runs less than starters.
RA is just the equivalent of ERA, but includes unearned runs.
FIP is Tango Tiger's Fielding Independent Pitching, which is calculated using the formula 13 times HR plus 3 times BB + HBP - 2 times K divided by IP. 3.2 is added to that to give a # that should closely match ERA. The idea here is to regress a pitcher's batting average on balls in play to average by focusing on his peripherals. If you see a big difference between a pitcher's FIP and his ERA, you should expect them to move closer to each other if he continues to pitch the way he has to this point.
ERC is Component ERA. Kind of like FIP, it looks a player's components to see if their results match their actual performance. The one difference is it uses a pitcher's actual hit rate, so it does not penalize pitchers who do happen to have the ability to suppress hits on balls in play.
| Last | LD% | GB% | FB% | BABIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | BF | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Wang | 18.0% | 58.7% | 23.2% | .277 | 181 | 133 | 69 | 418 | 383 | .256 | .311 | .366 |
| Bruney | 17.5% | 29.9% | 52.9% | .268 | 200 | 53 | 105 | 154 | 122 | .230 | .364 | .328 |
| Myers | 15.7% | 61.8% | 22.1% | .238 | 113 | 93 | 60 | 131 | 114 | .237 | .313 | .368 |
| Clemens | 20.7% | 50.0% | 29.2% | .261 | 103 | 135 | 110 | 158 | 147 | .231 | .278 | .347 |
| Rivera | 16.3% | 53.1% | 30.6% | .309 | 120 | 238 | 138 | 139 | 130 | .254 | .288 | .346 |
| Villone | 16.4% | 36.1% | 47.7% | .217 | 203 | 111 | 69 | 78 | 69 | .203 | .282 | .261 |
| Pettitte | 18.4% | 49.3% | 32.3% | .321 | 155 | 120 | 78 | 476 | 434 | .293 | .340 | .417 |
| Hughes | 15.4% | 57.7% | 26.9% | .269 | inf | 88 | 161 | 41 | 37 | .189 | .268 | .216 |
| Britton | 14.3% | 28.6% | 57.1% | .000 | 44 | 146 | 71 | 17 | 16 | .063 | .118 | .250 |
| Proctor | 16.0% | 28.5% | 56.0% | .252 | 134 | 74 | 99 | 207 | 174 | .230 | .319 | .356 |
| Mussina | 20.6% | 39.9% | 39.5% | .295 | 85 | 164 | 90 | 326 | 298 | .279 | .316 | .446 |
| Ramirez | 0.0% | 66.7% | 25.0% | .500 | inf | 86 | 240 | 10 | 7 | .286 | .400 | .429 |
| Rasner | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | .291 | 72 | 119 | 59 | 111 | 100 | .290 | .351 | .470 |
| Pavano | 17.9% | 46.2% | 34.9% | .282 | 119 | 197 | 52 | 46 | 44 | .273 | .304 | .409 |
| Henn | 13.6% | 42.4% | 44.1% | .237 | 114 | 58 | 89 | 88 | 73 | .219 | .341 | .343 |
| Farnsworth | 19.0% | 33.6% | 48.0% | .310 | 135 | 83 | 88 | 156 | 138 | .275 | .353 | .384 |
| Bean | 8.3% | 58.3% | 33.3% | .417 | inf | 33 | 63 | 19 | 14 | .357 | .526 | .500 |
| Wright | 14.3% | 25.0% | 58.7% | .217 | 21 | 57 | 90 | 40 | 34 | .294 | .400 | .794 |
| Vizcaino | 20.8% | 35.4% | 43.4% | .259 | 169 | 54 | 89 | 195 | 159 | .233 | .354 | .384 |
| Desalvo | 17.6% | 37.6% | 44.6% | .294 | 145 | 60 | 32 | 112 | 91 | .297 | .411 | .495 |
| Clippard | 6.7% | 39.3% | 54.3% | .277 | 54 | 62 | 87 | 124 | 107 | .271 | .371 | .505 |
| Karstens | 35.0% | 25.0% | 41.7% | .454 | 68 | 111 | 23 | 26 | 23 | .478 | .500 | .696 |
| Igawa | 18.7% | 31.0% | 50.5% | .283 | 51 | 80 | 92 | 215 | 189 | .275 | .363 | .519 |
| Total | 17.9% | 43.6% | 38.5% | .288 | 127 | 110 | 85 | 3287 | 2903 | .269 | .334 | .417 |
LD%, GB%, and FB% are the percentage of balls in play that a pitcher allows that end up as line drives, ground balls, or fly balls, respectively.
BABIP is batting average on balls in play. This looks at all balls in a play that a pitcher gives up and what ratio they become hits. The formula used is (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO + SF). The AL average this season is .300 on the nose. In theory, most pitchers should be close to that number, so most anyone who's above or below it has a probability of regressing towards it.
HR+, BB+, and K+ are my own numbers. These are similar to Baseball Reference's ERA+, in that they calculate a pitcher's HR allowed rate, walk allowed rate, and strikeout rate per batters faced as a ratio compared to league average. < 100 is below average, >100 is above average for all three. So if you look at Chien-Ming Wang, you see he prevents HRs at a rate 81% better than the average pitcher, walks 33% fewer, and strikes out 31% fewer. You have to love Chase Wright's 21 HR+.
BF is batters faced. AB is at bats by opposing hitters, and AVG, OBP, and SLG are what opposing hitters are hitting against the pitcher in question.
So what do all these numbers really mean?
First of all, Chien-Ming Wang rocks. He's been a win better than any Yankee pitcher despite missing a month. Yeah, he doesn't strike out a lot of people, but last year his K+ was 51, so he's improved significantly in that area this year. He's a master at keeping the ball in the park, and he pitches with good control. That has worked for Wang for 439 innings at the major league level now.
Brian Bruney's had a decent year as far as preventing runs, but his control is awful and he appears to have fallen out of favor in the bullpen pecking order. Bruney was released by Arizona for a reason, but he's still young enough to put it together. I wouldn't trust him over most of the rest of the pen right now though.
Mike Myers' has had what looks like a good year superficially, but he has failed at his job, which is to get out lefty hitters. Lefties are hitting .327/.410/.462, following up a line of .257/.297/.443 last year. Expect more of the same going forward. From what I can see, he's lost what little velocity he had and his slider is not as tough to hit as it used to be.
It's both a credit to Roger Clemens and an indictment of the rest of the team that he's been their fourth most valuable pitcher despite only starting six games. He's not throwing as hard as he used to, but he's succeeding. His K rate is still better than league average, and he's combining that with above average control and a good HR rate. He can probably pitch until he's 50.
Mariano Rivera's ERA is way out of line from what we are used to seeing, but he's been good recently. Over his last 24 games, he's pitched 27.1 innings and fanned 24 with a more Mo-like 1.65 ERA. He still doesn't look like MO to me, but he should be good going forward. His FIP and his component ERA both point to that as well. Interestingly, Rivera's already given up as many earned runs this year as he gave up in five full seasons in the past.
Everyone wants to dump Ron Villone, but he's been good at his role, pitching good baseball in low leverage spots. I don't see a pressing need to get rid of him. I'd probably lose Myers before Villone.
Andy Pettitte has been brutal his last few starts, but you could argue that it should have been seen coming. He had a 2.51 ERA after his first 11 starts, but 23 BB and just 38 strikeouts, and having allowed 70 hits in 71 innings. Since then, he's got a putrid 7.30 ERA. For the first half overall, he's been a hair above average, and he's eaten innings for the team and helped rest the pen for the majority of his starts. He's right around where he was projected to be overall, even though he took a circuitous rout to get there. Let's hope he's just in a rut and not hurting.
Phil Hughes pitched twice. We hope to see him back by the end of the month. He makes his first rehab start today I think.
Chris Britton has done nothing in the majors or Scranton to warrant still being in Scranton.
Scott Proctor's been up and down. It looks like he's made an adjustment recently, using his slow curve to freeze hitters looking for his fastball, and so far it's working. As a durable reliever who can give the team average or better innings, he's a useful piece.
Mike Mussina started out crappy. He still doesn't look great stuff wise, but he's been getting results. Over his last six starts he's got a 2.87 ERA, over his last eight it's 3.49. Take out his first start of the year and he's got an ERA of 4.14. I was hoping for a repeat of 2006, but it looks more that we will see the 2004-2005 version of Moose, who is useful if not great. Moose's FIP and ERC seem to agree that he'll be ok going forward, but not great.
Edwar Ramirez is the last of the Yankee pitchers who has not been below average. He should get a few chances to show if he can handle the majors yet. He's a great story so I'll be pulling for him.
I won't go through everyone else on the list, but I'll touch on a few of 'em.
Pavano. Heh.
I have nothing good to say about Kyle Farnsworth. I'd love to see the Yankees dump him somewhere, for anything they could get.
Luis Vizcaino has been the best part of the Randy Johnson trade, which tells you how well that whole thing worked out. In his defense, he's pitched better of late although he's still got mediocre peripherals. Did you know Vizcaino already has 11 IBB this year? That really skews his numbers.
Kei Igawa. I expected a 5.00 ERA with hopes of a 4.00, and instead I've gotten a 7.14 ERA with hopes that he doesn't pitch any more. Igawa's K rate is passable, but his control has been poor, and his HR rate is off the charts bad. The league is hitting .275/.363/.519 against him. Eeesh.
Overall, the Yankee pitching staff has actually been a touch above average (15 RSAA overall). That's because even with a slightly below average ERA, they have allowed fewer unearned runs than average so fewer overall. Their team RA is 4.66 compared to the AL average of 4.80. That's the fairly good news. The bad news is that as a team they have the worst K rate in the league, with a K+ of 85.
I'll look at either the offense or defense tomorrow.
Update: A couple of links some of you may have interest in. Over at the Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe looks at a simulation of the 28 worst teams of all time. I helped Chris run these. No, the 2007 Yankees are not on the list, yet.
Also, Top Prospect Alert has posted their Top 100 prospects at midseason. Hughes is still considered a prospect, and they have him as #2 behind Justin Upton. Six Yankees make the grade, although one name is a bit surprising.
Sunday, July 8, 2007
NY Times: Yankees Pin Their Hopes on Pitching and Patience
Chamberlain, Horne, Smith, Ian Kennedy, Jeff Marquez and Jason Jones lead a Trenton staff that is the nexus of the Yankees’ recent emphasis on developing pitching. In a dreary season for the major league team, the Trenton pitchers have been the organization’s highlight.
Every team knows the importance of pitching. But under General Manager Brian Cashman, the Yankees’ strategy of taking risks on amateur pitchers and exceeding industry standards for bonuses seems to be working. It suggests that the Yankees may not be down for long, and other teams have noticed.
“He recognized a few years ago the need to fortify his system and has taken advantage of every opportunity possible to infuse talent into it,” Cleveland Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro said.
“The system is now one of the stronger ones in the minor leagues, and at some point, as those players become major-league-ready, the Yankees will have the most deadly combination of depth of young talent combined with elite payroll resources at the major league level.”
When Cashman assumed greater authority over baseball operations in 2005, he wanted clearly defined roles for others in the department. With Damon Oppenheimer running the draft and Mark Newman overseeing the farm system, the Yankees have steadily raised their profile in the minors.
In 2004, Baseball America ranked the Yankees 27th in minor league talent. Before this season, they ranked seventh. While the system is thin in position players, Cashman is closely guarding his pitching depth as the trading deadline nears.
2007 may stink, but the future looks promising.
For some reason, and I know this is completely irrational, seeing that the Yankees won 12-0 today pissed me off. I still have a really bad taste in my mouth from Saturday’s game so I didn’t bother to watch today. Couldn’t they have scored 1 of those 12 freaking runs yesterday sometime between innings 3 and 12?
Nothing against Chien-Ming Wang BTW, who continues to succeed, defying not just a low K rate, but what seems to be a pretty nasty fingernail issue. Wang is awesome.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Miguel Cairo vs. Josh Phelps
Doug Mientkiewicz’s injuries have turned an already bad first base situation for the Yankees into an even worse one. With no call on the horizon yet to Andy Phillips or Shelley Duncan, the Yankees tried Josh Phelps for two games and then have started Miguel Cairo for the last two games.
Phelps struggled defensively in the team’s 6-4 loss at Chicago making a key error in the second inning which helped the White Sox score three runs, and that then caused the unpopular move of starting Cairo at first the last two nights. Cairo’s gone 4 for 8 over the last two games and converted all six fieldable chances he’s seen into outs, which indicates that he may be the starting 1B for now.
So how bad is this?
Mientkiewicz is going to be out from 6-8 weeks, which I’ll say is 60 games. 60 games will end up being roughly 250 plate appearances. Using linear weights and their 2007 projections, here’s how many batting runs above average we’d expect Cairo and Phelps to create over 250 PA.
Cairo: (.226/.277/.320) BR: -11
Phelps: (.266/.324/.461) BR: 1
Ouch. Offensively, there’s a 12 run projected difference between the two.
That seems like a clear no-brainer, but it’s not that simple. We have to of course look at defense too.
Cairo’s only played 154 innings at first in his career, but he has an outstanding ZR of .944. That’s good, but the sample size is way too small.
Phelps has seen more action at first, but even his career 370 innings is too small to make any definitive statement about. His ZR is .770.
Those 60 games are the same as around 540 defensive innings. I looked through my historical zone rating database at all first basemen who played at least 540 innings in a season, and looked at the spread between the best and worst defenders pro-rated over 540 innings.
The best stretch I found over a pro-rated 540 innings were Jeff King (with a ZR of .940) in 1996 and Todd Zeile(with a ZR of .927) in 2000. Both saved around 7 runs above average. The two worst stretches were Mike Piazza in 2004 (with a ZR of .740) and Mo Vaughn in 1997 (with a ZR of .719) both “worth” nine runs below average. There’s some selection bias in the lower end I’d imagine, because if someone was worse than this they wouldn’t get enough playing time to show it.
So the spread between the worst possible defender and best possible defender at first over 60 games is about 16 runs at most. So even if Cairo is as good as any first baseman ever, and Phelps is as bad as any first baseman ever, they still end up with Cairo only holding a slight edge overall. Do keep in mind that this is only looking at fieldable chances converted into outs. It doesn’t include a first baseman’s scooping ability or their range in catching foul popups.
Over 540 innings, the average 1B should see 105 chances or so. If we use the career ZR of Cairo and Phelps at first base, the difference between the two over those chances would be that Cairo would convert 99 of 105 chances, Phelps would convert 81 of them, a difference of 18 plays, roughly equal to 14 runs.
The problem is, we can’t assume that either Cairo’s .944 ZR or Phelps’s .770 career ZR are what their true talent is. In my database, there are only 47 seasons where a first baseman had a ZR of .900 or higher over at least 540 innings.
If we regress Cairo to average, which I think is reasonable, his ZR of .846. This year, Phelps’s ZR is .843, but from what I’ve seen, his 2007 ZR doesn’t really capture his poor defensive ability. I’ll split the difference, and say he’s probably around a .807 defender. This would mean that the difference between Phelps and Cairo would be about 4 plays, or 3 runs over 540 innings.
So, offense + defense, Phelps would be worth +1 offensive run, and -3 defensive runs. Cairo would be worth -11 offensive runs, and 0 defensive runs. That makes Phelps about nine runs, or one win better.
If Cairo is in fact a better than average defender, which I do think is true, then the difference decreases. What I would probably do is play Cairo behind Chien-Ming Wang (2.72 G/F ratio) and Andy Pettitte(1.64 G/F ratio). They should prevent runs at a better rate than the other Yankee starters and would benefit more from the better defender at first.
Speaking of Wang, he was great last night in pitching the Yankees’ first complete game of the season. Peter Abraham noted this morning that Wang is 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA over his last five starts.
Mike Mussina will have a chance to give the Yanks a rare series victory today against former Yankee Jose Contreras. Moose has been a disappointment so far, but I’m holding out hope that he’s still building up arm strength and will be better going forward.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Adjusted Wang
The Yankees beat Boston last night, 6-2. Chien-Ming Wang has struggled against Boston at times in his career, so he and Jorge Posada made an adjustment last night. Wang threw a lot more sliders than he typically does. He used it to good advantage in getting five strikeouts. The cost was in his efficiency, as he labored through 6.1 innings, needing 115 pitches as his command and pitch count suffered. It was encouraging to see Wang make this type of adjustment, and gives further hope that he can make the adjustments he will need to make if his current style of pitching to contact stops working.
Johnny Damon went 3 for 4, Alex Rodriguez homered for the third straight game, and Robinson Cano had a big two-out, two-run triple to give the Yankees their last two runs, and give them some much-needed breathing room. The bullpen pitched 2.2 hitless innings in relief of Wang, and everyone was happy for a day.
It’s only one game, but it felt bigger than that. With Mike Mussina facing Julian Tavarez today, the Yanks have a chance to build a little momentum and pick up another game on Boston. Even if the division is a pipedream, every win is going to be important if the Yankees want to have a shot at the wild card.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Yankees.com: Clippard neutralizes Mets in debut
NEW YORK—Tyler Clippard was the first Yankees player to report to Shea Stadium on Sunday, and as it turned out, he’d be the last one to leave.
In between, Clippard made the most of his hours at the ballpark, pitching the Yankees past the Mets, 6-2, in his Major League debut. He also clubbed a double in the contest, stealing the stage in the Queens Subway Series finale.
In a season of disappointments, last night’s game was a treat. Clippard was great, and fun to watch. His curve was biting nicely, and he threw strikes and hit Jorge Posada’s target consistently. His ceiling is probably more of a #3 starter, more likely he’ll settle in as a #4 or a #5, but he looked like an ace last night.
The offense is showing signs of waking up, with two good games on Saturday and Sunday. With their rotation lined up now heading into a series at home with Boston, it’s probably the Yankees’ last stand at the division title. A sweep would put the Yankees within 7.5 games of Boston, and bring them to 22-23. Taking two out of three would leave them 21-24 and 9.5 games back. Anything less and they’ve probably kissed away any chance at the division.
The matchups for the Boston series:
Monday, May 21: T. Wakefield (4-4, 2.41) vs. C. Wang (2-3, 4.54)
Tuesday, May 22: J. Tavárez (2-4, 5.59) vs. M. Mussina (2-2, 5.64)
Wednesday, May 23: C. Schilling (4-1, 3.57) vs. A. Pettitte (2-3, 2.83)
The Yankees should probably be able to split the last two games, so winning tonight against the resurgent Tim Wakefield will be key. The Yanks were able to beat Wakefield on the 28th, let’s hope for a repeat.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Splitsville
After starting the day off with a rough 5-3 loss, the Yankees recovered in the nightcap of yesterday’s doubleheader, winning 8-1 behind a solid outing from Chien-Ming Wang. Wang went seven innings, and allowed six hits and one run, walking one and striking out three.
Wang’s averaging 6 2/3 innings per start since his return from the DL, giving the Yankees some innings that they have sorely needed. The nice thing about Wang is that even when he doesn’t pitch particularly well, he rarely gets knocked out of the game early, which helps save the bullpen. In general, the starters have been pitching deeper into games recently. Since Wang’s return, the Yankee starters are averaging six innings a start. Prior to his return, they were averaging 4.9. In the 18 games prior to Wang’s return, the starters had an ERA of 5.58. Since then, it’s 3.99.
How inconsistent have the Yankees’ starters been to this point? If you look at the splits in the wins vs the losses, it’s really obvious.
In wins, Yankee starters are averaging 6 innings and have an ERA of 2.33.
In losses, they have averaged 5 innings, with an ERA of 7.18.
The MIA Yankee offense showed up as well, with Hideki Matsui the big contributor as he went three for five and drove in four runs. On the season, Matsui’s now hitting .287/.400/.460, and has an OPS+ of around 140. I’d love to see him end the year in that general area.
The Yanks go for the series win today in a day game (2:05 PM ET start) behind Matt DeSalvo, who’s excelled in his first two starts in the run prevention department, despite shaky peripherals. DeSalvo has been absolutely dominant against RHB, holding them to a line of .097/.200/.129. Conversely, lefties are hitting .412/.500/.706. I wouldn’t read too much into those splits as he’s only pitched two games, both against Seattle, but his stuff does look like it is tougher on righties. He’ll oppose Jon Garland, who’s pitched pretty well this year.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Yankees.com: Mussina gets Yankees back to .500
NEW YORK—The Yankees’ glass is half full once again.
Mike Mussina scattered three hits over six innings and Derek Jeter had three RBIs as the Yankees (16-16) defeated the Rangers on Wednesday, 6-2, reaching the .500 mark for the first time since April 21.
“We’re playing like we should have been playing from the beginning,” said Mussina (2-1). “It’s good to see us get it going again. Hopefully, we can just keep playing that way.”
The first month of the season was messy for the Yankees, who ended April five games under the break-even mark, in large part because their starting rotation was ravaged by injuries and inconsistency.
May has treated the Yankees much better. After missing the better part of three weeks with a strained left hamstring, Mussina won for the second time in as many starts since being activated from the disabled list, allowing two runs in an 85-pitch effort against the Rangers.
The rotation sure looks a lot better this morning than it did a few weeks ago with the apparent return of an effective Moose to slot behind Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang, especially with Roger Clemens and Phil Hughes waiting in the wings.
Yanks go for the sweep against Texas today in a day game (1:05 PM EDT), Chien Ming Wang vs. Brandon McCarthy.
Sunday, May 6, 2007
Projecting Clemens as a 2007 Yankee
With the news everywhere now about Rogers Clemens signing with the Yankees, for the sum of $20-24 million according to the NY Post, I guess it's time to look past the hype and see what the move really means.To do this, I'll run Clemens through the same projection guantlet that I ran the rest of the pitching staff through in the spring.
| Projection | ERA | RA | INN | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAR |
| ZiPS | 2.77 | 3.02 | 179 | 144 | 60 | 55 | 13 | 59 | 166 | 34 | |
| CHONE | 3.46 | 3.72 | 172 | 157 | 71 | 66 | 14 | 54 | 134 | 19 | |
| Marcel | 3.10 | 3.33 | 138 | 119 | 51 | 45 | 11 | 46 | 116 | 21 | |
| PECOTA | 3.16 | 3.45 | 128 | 109 | 49 | 45 | 12 | 39 | 118 | 18 | |
| Average | 3.09 | 3.39 | 154 | 132 | 58 | 53 | 13 | 50 | 134 | 23 | |
| Pro-rated | 3.08 | 3.38 | 120 | 103 | 45 | 41 | 10 | 39 | 104 | 18 | |
| AL/NL Adj | 3.38 | 3.68 | 120 | 110 | 49 | 45 | 10 | 37 | 92 | 14 | 52 |
| RSAA | Runs saved above average | ||||||||||
| RSAR | Runs saved above replacements |
Lots of numbers and lines, so let's explain them.
ZiPS is Dan Szymborski's projection system at Baseball Think Factory.
CHONE is Sean Smith's projection system, from the Anaheim Angels all the way Blog.
Marcel is the brainchild of Tango Tiger
PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus's system.
Average is a weighted average of all four systems.
Pro-rated is my assumption that Clemens will make about 22 starts given his expected timetable of end of May/beginning of June, and pitch about 120 innings.
The AL/NL Adj is my own personal tweak. Since most of the projections are based on Clemens's time in the NL, I put them through my AL/NL translation. The factors I use are below:
| H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | |
| AL | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| NL | 0.94 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 1.06 | 1.13 |
I calculated these factors by looking at the collective differences between all pitchers who switched leagues between 2000 and 2006. The way they work is that if a pitcher is switching from the AL to the NL, you'd adjust the various components accordingly. So a pitcher that goes from the NL to the AL would give up 1.07 times the # of hits they'd give up in the NL, 1.08 times the # of runs, etc.,
I'd assume the league switch doesn't affect everyone equally, so keep that in mind. You may want to also consider the defensive hit on Clemens's stats if the current Yankee defense continues to unimpress.
The last two columns in the projections above are runs saved above average (RSAA) and runs saved above replacements (RSAR). RSAA is simply league RA - pitcher RA divided by nine times innings. For RSAR, instead of using an arbitrary definition of replacement, I compared Clemens to the following group of Yankees and what they've done this year. These are strictly the splits as starters.
| Starters | IP | R | RA |
| K Igawa | 24.7 | 27 | 9.85 |
| J Karstens | 4.3 | 7 | 14.54 |
| C Pavano | 11.3 | 7 | 5.56 |
| D Rasner | 19.7 | 9 | 4.12 |
| C Wright | 8.0 | 7 | 7.88 |
| Total | 68.0 | 57.0 | 7.54 |
Clemens projects to save about 14 runs above an average pitcher over his four months. That's not worth $20 million by itself, but if it's the difference between the postseason or not, it could be. The more obvious impact is that Clemens isn't replacing an average pitcher. He's replacing some really bad performances. Now, we can't assume that the bad performance so far is really the way we'd expect the Yankees' collective sixth starters to pitch going forward. The sample size is too small. However, I don't think it's unreasonable to look at Clemens as a 25 - 30 run upgrade over them going forward. That's a pretty big improvement.
How does this rotation look?
1) Clemens
2) Wang
3) Pettitte
4) Mussina
5) Hughes
Works for me.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Getting Back on Track
At 9-14, the Yankees clearly need to get things going, and soon. A lot of the blame so far has been put on the rotation, and rightfully so. Thankfully, things are starting to look a little better in the rotation now. It starts tonight with Phil Hughes making his second start. If Hughes is up for good, and can give the team 6 innings and 3 runs most of the time, that will be a big help. Andy Pettitte follows tomorrow, and for he’s been good so far this year. I don’t see any reason he should continue to be a quality starter going forward, injury concerns aside. Mike Mussina comes off the DL on Thursday, and then Chien-Ming Wang goes on Friday. I’d expect both to need a little recovery/adjustment time before they’re fully clicking, but even at less than full-strength they should give the team a chance to win right now.
so you have the following rotation now:
1) Pettitte
2) Moose
3) Wang
4) Whomever
5) Hughes
Whomever could be Kei Igawa or Darrell Rasner, depending on matchups. Or it could end up being Carl Pavano (hahaha). This order is pretty optimal to me, beause I think Wang and Pettitte are the innings-eaters on this team, and separating them will help spread the bullpen’s workload a bit.
The bullpen has been shaky, but a lot of that has been because of the extreme workload. At some point, Joe Torre has to stop matching up inning by inning, and give some of these guys a few games off. The other problem with pitching five relievers a game is that you can remove someone who’s throwing well for someone who just doesn’t have it that day. If someone like Proctor starts the 7th and pitches fairly well and only throws 15 pitches, why relieve him just because the inning changes? Pitch him in the 8th, and then give him the next day off. You’d end up getting more innings out of the bullpen, but with more frequent rest I’d be willing to bet they’d end up more effective.
I’m not going to go through the offense now, because we know they can and will hit at some point. The team is scoring runs (on pace for 923), even with several of the big names not doing much yet. If they get rolling they could be scary.
If the Yankees play to their current pythagorean winning percentage of 0.521 for the rest of the season, they would end up at 81-81. They’re currently allowing 5.4 runs a game. If they can get that down to 5 with the same offense, they would project to go 86-76. If they get it down to 4.7, they would project to go 89-73. That’s not very encouraging, but a lot can change in a week so let’s see where they are after this stretch coming up.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Gut Punch
With two outs in the ninth inning of today’s game in Oakland, the Yankees were holding a 4-2 lead. There were one out away from going 4-2 on their first road trip of the season, and taking two of three from both Minnesota and Oakland on the road. The pitching staff had a 2.02 ERA on the trip to this point. The much-maligned starting staff had an ERA of 1.38, and the much-used bullpen had an ERA of 2.84. Unfortunately, Mariano Rivera did what doesn’t do all that much, and blew the save, and the Yanks fell 5-4. It was a painful loss, so close to victory with Mo on the mound. As I watched Marco Scutaro’s ball praying it would curve foul, I felt like I got punched in the gut.
It’s amazing how one pitch can change our perception of a week’s worth of games, but that’s exactly what happened. Instead of a successful 4-2 road trip and a 6-5 start to the season, the Yankees limp home with a 3-3 road trip, a 5-6 record, and down two starters with Carl Pavano and Mike Mussina getting DL’ed.. You can pin this loss on Mo. It happens a few times every year, and it is always a surprise, and it’s always painful. Why did you walk Kendall Mo? Why?
The road trip itself had good and bad. I thought the pitching staff was very good, and they finished the trip with a 2.48 ERA. Granted, the teams they faced have not been offensive powerhouses to this point, but they’re still major league teams with good players. The pitching staff, especially the rotation, is probably the biggest concern with the Yankees right now, so it was good to see credible outings from Andy Pettitte, Kei Igawa, and Darrell Rasner. Pavano would’ve been lumped in there too if he didn’t get injured.
The real issue on the road trip was the position players, on offense and defense. The team hit a collective .260/.331/.381. They played good defense in Minnesota, but looked awful against Oakland, giving up five unearned runs. Better defense, and they probably sweep Oakland. We know the team is limited as far as their range, so it’s doubly frustrating when they fail to make plays they get to, and it’s inexcusable.
So now the Yankees are 5-6, largely because their main strength(offense) is still not showing itself. The oft-touted minor league pitching depth that Brian Cashman has been accumulating will start being pressed into action, with Chase Wright the next to get the call on Tuesday, weather permitting. If Cashman’s stated goal of making the team younger and more flexible is true, then this is an opportunity for people like Wright.
I’m not even close to worried. There are 151 games to go, and Chien-Ming Wang is due back soon. Wang and Pettitte should be solid starters. I’d trust that a healthy Moose will be at least league average, and probably better than that. Kei Igawa showed signs of being useful in his last start, and there’s still Jeff Karstens and the entire rotation of Scranton-WB to fill in if needed. From there, if the Yankees need Roger Clemens, they’re probably in the position to go get him, with Houston looking bad and with Boston not needing him.
In other words, there’s no reason to worry yet. We can’t have the 1998 Yankees every year, and that would get boring anyway.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Looking Ahead to 2007: Chien-Ming Wang
DATE: 3/25/2007 06:40:00 PM
“For a baseball fan to fail to see that strikeout rates are closely tied to career length, I would argue, is very much like a basketball fan failing to notice that basketball players tend to be tall.”
Bill James from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract
No one can deny that Chien-Ming Wang’s career to this point has been successful. However, his K rate has been historically low, which is typically a poor indicator for career longevity. However, Wang has one thing that the majority of low K pitchers did not have, and that’s top-shelf stuff.
Wang’s projections for 2007 aren’t particularly good, mainly because he’s such a statistical anomaly.
Wang was great last year, saving 28 runs above the average pitcher. The projection systems think he’s going to lose 20 runs of value, although at least part of that is based on a projected shortfall of 40 innings. I do have concerns about Wang’s health, because he went from a career-high 150 innings in 2005 to 218 last season and because of the rotator cuff scare in 2005, but he was strong all year so it may not be that much of a concern. With the recent news of his hamstring injury, I guess I should have been concerned. It sounds like Wang shouldn’t miss more than 2-3 starts thankfully.
To me, Wang fits a profile similar to Mariano Rivera. There are players who operate in an area where projection systems designed for the collective major league baseball population just won’t work. I think the Marcel projection is probably the fairest one because of that.
Wang has succeeded despite his low K rate because he does two other things well. He has good control, and he keeps the ball in the park. Opponents have
slugged just .373 against Wang so far in his career. If he can continue to do that, he should be ok. Here’s how Wang’s ERA and FIP tracked over 2006.
Wang outperformed his FIP this season, but not to a level that would show he was extremely lucky in 2006. Wang’s FIP of 3.96 ranked 15th among ERA-qualified AL starters last season.
One thing Wang’s struggled with in his career to this point is pitching on the road. Here are Wang’s career Home/Road splits, including batted-ball types.
For whatever reason, Wang gets a lower percentage of grounders on the road. He gives up more fly balls and line drives as a result.
Wang’s lefty-right splits are not as extreme as I thought they might be.
Lastly, these splits are pretty interesting to me. Here’s how Wang has done based on the # of outs.
Here’s the link to the tables above for those who can’t see them on the blog.
For whatever reason, with two outs, Wang’s K rate spikes up considerably. This tells me he may have the skill to strike out batters more frequently than he has to this point, but is comfortable with his current approach since it’s working. It’s worth mentioning that even if you apply that 12.2% K/BF to all his innings, it’s still just a K rate of about 4.5 per 9 innings.
I know what the numbers say, but I also know what I see when I watch Wang pitch. Wang should be able to continue to succeed in the majors, although he may have to make some adjustments along the way if his current style stops working. I think he’s talented enough to do that, and I think he’ll be fine, perhaps with some growing pains as he makes those adjustments.
On a different note, Boston moved Jon Papelbon to closer after I ran the Diamond Mind Projection blowout, so I re-ran 250 with each of the four projection systems to see what it changed. I had to adjust Papelbon’s projections using Dan Szymborski’s tool for converting starters to relievers. I replaced Paplebon in the rotation with Julian Tavarez and Jon Lester pitching 50% each.
Here’s a comparison of the two runs.
Basically, there was no difference in the regular season. The improvement at the end of the game is mitigated by the weakening of the rotation. It does make Boston a better short-series team though.
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Fox Sports.com: Wang to start season on DL
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Yankees right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, a 19-game winner last season, will start the season on the disabled list with a right hamstring pull.
Wang, who had been under consideration to start opening day April 2 against Tampa Bay, is expected to be sidelined at least a month.
Well, that stinks.
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Run Values of the 2006 Yankees
With the Yankees’ 2006 season at its end, I wanted to take one last look back at the contributions of everyone who wore pinstripes this season. I posted the details of a lot of these calculations in this entry a while back, so if you want more background you can check that out.
First up, the offense.
Next up, the defense.
Lastly, the pitching.
Add it all up, and here’s the sum total of everyone’s contributions to the Yankees in 2006.
Do these numbers make sense? The Yankees were 167 runs better than an average team, or 16.7 wins better. Add 16.7 wins to an 81 win team, you get a 97.8 win team. I guess they do.
In other Yankee news, Joe Torre is staying.
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
What Happened?
I have to admit that the Yankees getting dominated by Detroit kind of stunned me. It’s not that I didn’t think Detroit was a good team, it just seemed like the Yankees were stacked on offense. To see the way a lineup that some were considering the greatest lineup ever got shut down by Kenny Rogers and then Jeremy Bonderman was surreal. Here’s the team’s offensive performance.
The “greatest lineup ever” hit a collective .246/.303/.388. As much as I find the piling on on Alex Rodriguez to be a little unfair in general, he flat out sucked in this series. So did Gary Sheffield. Honestly, aside from Posada and Jeter and to a lesser extent Bobby Abreu, everyone sucked.
The pitching wasn’t much better. Only Chien-Ming Wang pitched a quality start. I like Mike Mussina a lot, but I like him less after he blew a 3-1 lead when the team had the opportunity to take a commanding 2-0 series lead in Game 2. Randy Johnson may think he pitched decently, but he was awful, and when you’ve built a team that ends up in a situation that leads to Jaret Wright pitching in a game where you could be eliminated, that speaks for itself. 
Ah yes, the defense. They were even worse than the offense and pitching.
As much as I wouldn’t mind seeing Joe Torre being fired, if it is to bring in Lou Piniella I’d rather not do anything. I think he’s too hot-headed and too careless about pitchers, and if there’s a worse bullpen manager than Torre it may be him.
As the off-season moves forward we’ll have plenty of time to think about what changes the Yankees should make. Wholesale changes aren’t needed to have the Yankees in the playoffs again, but I think that Brian Cashman should consider making some significant moves, if he can make the team younger and better defensively.
And all credit to the Tigers, who outplayed the Yankees in every manner possible.
Tuesday, October 3, 2006
O Captain My Captain
Thanks to Derek Jeter’s 5-5 night, the Yankees took the first game of their ALDS with Detroit, 8-4. After neither team could score over the first two innings, Jeter’s double after an infield single by Johnny Damon got the Yankee offense going. Bobby Abreu’s post-season debut as a Yankee went well, as he proceeded to drive them both in with a double to deep RF. Gary Sheffield followed with a single to CF, and then Jason Giambi lined a HR to RF.
Chien-Ming Wang was pretty solid, but shaky at times. He managed to work around a few leadoff doubles, and was getting the ball up more than he typically does, which led to him giving up a HR to Craig Monroe. With two outs in the seventh, at 93 pitches Joe Torre decided to go to Mike Myers with Curtis Granderson due up. Most of the opinions I’ve seen about this move was that it was wrong, but I thought it was the right decision. It didn’t play out well, but here’s the way I saw it.
1) Wang had been scuffling most of the game, and had pitched several high-stress innings.
2) He was up to 93 pitches, and was pitching in his 225th inning of the season, after never topping 160 prior to this season.
3) Any chance the Yankees have of advancing in the postseason are going to require Wang to be available and effective. If they somehow end up down 2-1, you may want to have the chance to bring Wang back on short rest.
4) Mike Myers was brought in to do one thing, and that’s get lefties out.
So Wang was pulled to a nice ovation after a quality start, and Myers didn’t do what he gets paid to do. The result was sub-optimal, but the decision that went into it was defensible. I’m sure many will disagree with me, and that’s your right, but I didn’t think it was a bad move at all.
So Wang exited in the seventh with two outs and a 7-3 lead, and Myers gave up the HR to Granderson. Torre went to Scott Proctor, who seemed to be nervous and gave up two hits before getting the final out. The horror show that is Kyle Farnsworth pitched a shaky eighth. Jeter punctuated his night with a deep HR to left center in the bottom of the eighth, and Mariano Rivera did what he has done better than anyone in postseason history in the ninth, and the Yankees take a 1-0 lead in the best of five series.
This game showed me a few things. One, Detroit’s not intimidated by the Yankees and this series will not be easy. Two, the Yankee bullpen is a scary thing. Three, the Yankee offense can explode at any time. Four, Gary Sheffield made a really nice stretch on a low throw in the early innings. He doesn’t look smooth at first, but he’s looking more and more capable.
Let’s hope Moose can back Wang up tomorrow against Justin Verlander, and the Yankees can head to Comerica with a 2-0 series lead.
Monday, October 2, 2006
ALDS Preview - Tigers vs. Yankees
It’s ALDS preview time, as the Yankees will be taking on Detroit Tuesday night on FOX at 8 PM.
First up, here is a look at the position players on the 25 man playoff rosters. As I am wont to do, I’m using linear weights for offense and zone rating converted to runs for defense. BR is the player’s total output above/below average on the season compared to others listed at the same position. DR are the defensive runs above/below average. For the bench players who played multiple positions, I’ve combined all their defensive numbers.
I’ve combined the lines for players who played for multiple teams. I’ve removed the defensive stats of Marcus Thames and Jason Giambi as their primary roles will be as DH. Matt Stairs was acquired post Sept 1 so I don’t think he can be on the Tigers’ post-season roster.
As you can see from this list, Detroit’s is a much better defensive team than the Yankees, but overall they’re not on the same level. The Yankees have the edge on a per game basis at C, 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF, and DH, and the difference between Derek Jeter and Carlos Guillen is basically negligible. They Yankees have 8 of the top 9 players as far as total run value per game (based on this season’s performance).
The Tigers’ starting nine hit .280/.337/.458 compared to a league average of .275/.338/.437. It should be noted that they play in a pitcher’s park, so this is not a bad overall line for them. As a team overall, their season OPS was 100, or exactly league average. The starting nine put up an OPS of around 105. That’s around what Mike Lowell hit this season.
On the Tigers bench, they don’t pack much offensive punch, although Chris Shelton may get a start against Randy Johnson in Game 3.
The Yankees’ starting nine hit .299/.392/.499, which is the equivalent of an OPS of 129. That’s around what Miguel Tejada had, with a bit less batting average and bit more OBP.
The Yankee bench isn’t too bad this season for once, although I’m not sure how much time they’ll get. Bernie would seem to be a good pinch-hitter against a lefty, but which lefty do you pinch hit for? Melky Cabrera will be there to back up all three OF and perhaps to spot Matsui for defense late in games. That is the right role for him. Matsui is right now the clearly superior player. Miguel Cairo will mainly just be around in case of an emergency, and I’d guess we’ll see Andy Phillips replacing Sheffield in the 8th and 9th innings for defense. Hopefully, Sal Fasano doesn’t get an AB.
On paper, it’s a pretty clear position player edge for the Yanks.
Of course, there’s the matter of pitching. First, a look at the starters. I’m using linear weights for the pitchers as well.
One thing about the chart above, I’m only using the pitchers’ numbers as starters.
In Game 1, the Yankees seem to have a fairly good-sized edge. Chien-Ming Wang has been better than Nate Robertson in most measures this season except for strikeout rate. His ERC (component ERA) also indicates that his success to this point hasn’t been fluky. I remain concerned about Wang’s workload on the season, as he’s thrown 218 innings this season after never topping 160 prior to this year, but I think/hope he’ll be fine.
Robertson’s a pretty good pitcher, and a fellow blogger, so I have a soft spot for him. Being left-handed is a slight advantage for him facing Abreu, Giambi, Cano, and Damon. I think he’ll pitch reasonably well, but I doubt he’ll shut the Yankees down completely or anything.
Game 2 seems like a very big edge for the Yankees by the numbers, but you never know with rookie pitchers that throw 100 mph. Justin Verlander’s been solid for Detroit, and was rated as the AL starter with the highest average fastball velocity this season by Basebll Info Solutions. Fatigue seems to have caught up with him a bit recently, and Jim Leyland had him skip a start to rest him a bit. He has the stuff to dominate, although his BB rate is a touch below average which would seem to be a benefit for the Yankees.
Mike Mussina started the season out great, but has faltered a bit lately. He typically pitches well in the postseason, and his last start was very impressive (particularly his velocity, which was up to 91-92). I think Moose will be fine.
Game 3 is about as big of a tossup as you can get. Kenny Rogers didn’t face the Yankees this season, but had a solid season, and amazingly did not push any cameramen. He’s a lefty nibbler who has had pretty good control and a good HR rate but doesn’t have much stuff. I think the Yankees could light him up.
Unfortunately, with Randy Johnson opposing him, they may have to. Johnson’s got a herniated disk and had an epidural to relieve the pain he was feeling. In some ways, the fact that there is a physical explanation for Johnson’s recent struggles is encouraging. The problem is if the epidural was done too late to rectify it. Johnson supposedly had a good BP session and is on target to pitch this game. He could be great, or he could be shelled. Hopefully the Yanks are up 2-0 when he pitches.
Johnson’s had an odd season. If you look at his component ERA (3.80), he’s been solid. The problem he’s had is the hits and walks and HRs he’s allowed have not come scattered, but tend to come in bunches, something ignored when looking a pitcher’s peripherals. This is very likely a manifestation of his health issues, and probably likely to continue.
If Game 4 is needed, it’ll be Jeremy Bonderman vs. Jaret Wright. If Game 4 is needed, the Yankees may be in trouble. Bonderman’s another guy with a lot of talent who has tired in the season’s homestretch, but he’s a lot better than Wright.
That’s a little harsh-sounding on Wright, who did a serviceable job this season and ended up a touch about average. His peripherals indicate that it’s not likely to continue, but he was an important part of the rotation this season and was useful, even if he’s a bit painful to watch at times.
And if Game 5 is needed, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1.
So the Yankees seem to have a slight edge in the starting pitching with 3 out of 5 matchups being favorable, which is a bit surprising honestly. How about the bullpen?
Joel Zumaya has been dominant out of Detroit’s pen, but that below average walk rate seems to scream out as an advantage for the Yankees. Baseball Info Solutions rated him as the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball, with an average fastball velocity of 98 MPH.
Fernando Rodney’s been pretty solid as well. His season has been remarkably similar to Scott Proctor’s, minus 20 appearances.
It’s a rare bullpen where the closer is probably the third or fourth worst option, but that’s where Todd Jones sits.
The Tigers also have two solid lefties in Jamie Walker and Wil Ledezma, who will be used in key spots to try and neutralize the Giambi/Abreu/Matsui/Cano/Damon contingent, which makes it imperative for Joe Torre to keep the lefties as separated as possible in the lineup. Zach Miner and Jason Grilli will round out the pen. Despite appearing in the chart above, Andrew Miller will not be a part of Detroit’s bullpen.
The Detroit pen as listed above (minus Miller) has held opposing hitters to a line of .230/.308/.350, and saved 44 runs above average. This is the biggest strength on the team, and their only statistical advantage over the Yankees.
The Yankee bullpen starts and ends at the top, with Mariano Rivera. He appears to be healthy heading into the postseason, and he has had a lot of rest and has proclaimed that he is ready to do whatever is needed (pitch on back-to-back days, pitch two innings). He may have to, because the bridge to him is shaky.
Scott Proctor had a great season as the most used reliever in the American League(holy crap, Salomon Torres pitched in 94 games???). At this point, he’s probably the Yankees second best reliever as long as he’s got some juice left in his arm. Proctor pitched in 16 games in September, and pitched well, posting a 1.65 ERA over 16.1 innings, walking 3, and fanning 14, so if he’s tired, it’s not showing.
Someone on the Nomaas discussion board has coined Kyle Farnsworth “It is high, it is Far-nsworth”. I can’t disagree with that. At times he’s unhittable, at other times he scares the crap out of me. While I don’t think his past post-season results indicate some inability to pitch in the playoffs, I think his general inconsistency might. I guess we’ll find out, but I’m not looking forward to it.
Brian Bruney brings a great fastball and bad command as the fourth RHP in the pen. Thankfully, patience is not a strength of the Tigers.
The Yankee pen is rounded out with Ron Villone, who had a great first half that led to many(including yours truly) whining about his lack of use, and an awful August and September that led to the same many (including yours truly) whining about him being used all the time. I think he’s on the roster as more of a reward for a solid half season, and less in a role where he’ll be expected to get many key outs. Detroit’s heavily right-handed, so the Yankees don’t need to worry about platoon advantages when they have Mike Myers on hand. Myers had a reverse platoon split this year, but I’m not ready to think that those 132 batters faced are more meaningful than the 2008 he had faced prior to this season. He’ll likely be asked to come in to get Sean Casey or Curtis Granderson out, and that’s about it. Cory Lidle will sit in the pen as well, in case any of the starters gets bombed.
All these numbers seem to indicate a classic mismatch. I’m not ready to go that far. Detroit’s a good team in a great baseball town. They led arguably the toughest division in baseball almost all season. They’re not just the team that went 26-30 over their last 56 games, they’re also the team that went 71-35 over their first 106.
This is an organization that lost 119 games just three seasons ago. Their turnaround has been remarkable and a credit to all involved. I think they can beat the Yankees, and I wouldn’t take them lightly. A great defensive team loaded with hard throwers can beat anyone if things break right.
But I don’t think they will. Yankees in four.
Peter Abraham posted the Game 1 lineup on his fine blog.
Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Gary Sheffield 1B
Jason Giambi DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui LF
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Rodriguez 6th? Interesting.
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Yankees.com: Torre sets postseason roster
NEW YORK—Joe Torre settled on his 25-man roster for the American League Division Series, choosing Andy Phillips and Miguel Cairo to round out his bench.
In addition, Torre announced that Brian Bruney would be the final man in the bullpen, as the Yankees will take 11 pitchers into the opening round of the postseason.
New York will take seven infielders (Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Cairo and Phillips), two catchers (Jorge Posada and Sal Fasano) and five outfielders (Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Bernie Williams and Melky Cabrera).
The 11 pitchers will be Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, Cory Lidle, Ron Villone, Bruney, Mike Myers, Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera. If Johnson’s back injury causes him to miss his Game 3 start, the Yankees would leave him off the roster and add either Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner or Sean Henn.
The decision to take Phillips as the backup first baseman over Craig Wilson or Aaron Guiel had as much to do with Phillips’ ability to play second and third base as his defense at first.
“We felt Phillips gave us the defense at first base,” Torre said. “Plus, in the event we want to use Cairo as a pinch-runner, we have a backup infielder who can play third, second or first.”
I can’t say have much issue with any of the choices. While I’d rather see them take 10 pitchers and add Aaron Guiel or Craig Wilson, given Johnson’s uncertain status taking 11 pitchers is the safer move.
Update: I saw this posted on Baseball Think Factory and thought it was interesting.
Another update: Since the batting race is the hot topic of the day, I’ll keep the table below updated in real-time.
| Player | Today | AVG |
|---|---|---|
 | 2-4 | .347 |
 | 1-5 | .343 |
 | 2-4 | .342 |