Monday, September 29, 2008

Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Offense Edition)

Coming into this season, the Yankees looked to be a contender for best team in baseball. Although they were taking a calculated risk in relying on some very young pitchers, they were returning the bulk of a team that has scored 968 runs last year.  Even with expected declines in their older players, they still projected to have the best offense in baseball.

When I ran the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, they were the best team in the AL in most of the projection systems I used.  When I looked at the position players and the pitching staff I arrived at the same basic conclusion, the the Yankees should have won somewhere between 93-97 games.

As we all know, things didn’t work out that way.  The question I want to look at is why?  Were the projections wrong?  Was it injuries?  Was it a lack of testicular fortitude?  Let’s see if we can figure it out.

The projections I’ll be referencing here are the composite projections of several different systems, as detailed in this February blog entry.  I’m going to go through position by position looking at the projected starters compared to what the actual primary starters ended up doing, then looking at the bench as a unit. 

One other thing, while offense in the AL was down for most of this year compared to last year, the difference has narrowed signficantly of late to the point that it’s probably no longer statistically significant. The league average line of .268/.336/.420 equates to a BR/650 of 80 this season compared last year’s line of .271/.338/.423 which equates to a BR/650 of 81.  The BR(batting runs) I’ll be using here are context-neutral raw batting runs using linear weights, not position-adjusted or adjusted for base-out states. 

Catcher
Coming off his career year in 2007, Jorge Posada was projected to give back a fair amount of value in 2008.  Posada was projected to hit .286/.380/.469, a performance that would have been worth 76 batting runs according to linear weights using my assumed 500 plate appearances. 

Posada went down to a shoulder injury after just 195 PA, which made Jose Molina (Molino for the regulars) the primary starter.  While Molino had a strong defensive season, he hit like crap.  Molina hit .216/.263/.313 over 297 PA, which was worth 21 batting runs.  The difference between Posada’s projection and Molina’s actual performance as the primary starter was 55 runs, which was a 5.5 win underperformance.  BTW, disparities in playing time at all the positions will be accounted for when we get to the bench.

First Base
Another risk the Yankees took entering 2008 was that Jason Giambi would be able to
-Out-produce a disastrous 2007
-Play passable defense at first base
-Stay healthy all season

If you had asked me the likelihood of all three of those things happening, I’d have put it around the same likelihood as Mike Mussina winning 20 games. 

Giambi managed to achieve all three things for the most part.  His glove was bad, but not horrifically bad, and he was productive and healthy for most of the year, although 45% of his production came in the 45 games from April 22 - Jun 17 where he hit .319/.441/.694 (40 BR).  Over the other 100 games he played, he hit .213/.342/.414 (48 BR).  I don’t know if this type of split is particularly meaningful, so consider it just a random factoid.

The 2008 projections for Giambi weren’t bad on a rate basis (.245/.387/.474) but his playing time projections were pretty pessimistic (300 PA).  He projected to be worth about 46 batting runs because of that.  Instead, Giambi hit for a little more power but a little less OBP (.247/.373/.502), but thanks to exceeding his playing time projections he was far more valuable than he projected to be, exceeding his projected batting runs by 42 runs, a 4.2 win offensive upgrade.  The 2008 Yankees’ underperformance from their pre-season projections can’t be laid at Giambi’s feet.

Second Base
Pass.

Well, I wish I could pass anyway.  Robinson Cano seemed to be on the cusp of becoming the best 2B in the AL.  Cano projected to hit .308/.348/.482 and play plus defense and was at an age where he could still realistically be expected to improve.  Cano’s projected offense over 585 plate appearances would have made him worth 84 batting runs. Instead, Cano digressed in just about every facet of his game, hitting .271/.305/.410 over 634 PA, which was only worth 68 BR.  This was a downgrade of 1.6 wins.

Third Base
Boo.

Alex Rodriguez was justifiably the AL’s MVP in 2007.  He was rightfully expected to regress somewhat in 2008, projected to hit .300/.406/.574 over 650 PA, which would have been worth 123 batting runs.  On a rate basis, he basically hit his projection, but thanks to a leg injury that cost him 56 PA compared to his projection, he was 14 runs less valuable than projected, a downgrade of 1.4 wins.  It’s also a fact that Rodriguez’s performance in more crucial plate appearances were less productive than his context-neutral numbers show. This was not a problem exclusive to Rodriguez, so I’ll devote a section to that as well.

Shortstop
Derek Jeter came into 2008 projected to hit .307/.379/.438 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 86 BR.  A late hot streak pushed him closer to his projections as he ended the season at .300/.363/.408 over 668 PA, a total of 82 BR.  He was less valuable than projected on a rate basis, but by exceeding his projected playing time his overall value was only about four runs less than projected.

Left Field
Johnny Damon was shifted to LF due to his defensive decline, the seeming emergence of Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui’s bad knees.  This looked like a disaster in the making coming off a poor offensive 2007, although it did also seem like a defensive upgrade.  Damon projected to hit .280/.353/.423 over 585 PA, a line that would have been worth 78 batting runs.  He blew that away by hitting .303/.375/.461 over 623 PA.  So like first base, left field ended up as a net gain on the pre-season projections, to the tune of 15 runs, or 1.5 wins.

Center Field
After a promising rookie season, Melky Cabrera declined in 2007.  The projections expected him to bounce back, thanks in part to his youth.  Melky was projected to hit .282/.344/.406 over 550 PA for a total of 68 BR.  Instead, he got even worse, hitting .249/.301/.341 over 453 PA before mercifully being demoted to Scranton.  Cabrera’s line was a downgrade of 27 BR, or 2.7 wins.  And that’s all I have to say about that.

Right Field
Bobby Abreu came into 2008 projected to hit .277/.383/.439 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 89 BR.  He exceeded that by hitting .296/.371/.471 over 684 PA, worth a total of 101 BR.  Luckily for Abreu, we’re ignoring defense for now, and this was an offensive upgrade of 12 runs or 1.2 wins.

Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui was penciled in as the primary DH coming into 2008 and his projection was pretty good, .287/.367/.477 over 500 PA, equivalent to around 74 BR.  Unfortunately, after a hot start to the season, Matsui’s knees gave out on him and he missed a significant part of the season and when he managed to come back was very unproductive, ending 2008 with a line of .294/.370/.424 over 378 PA for a total of 50 BR.  That’s a 24 run/2.4 win falloff.

So just looking at the starting nine, we see that the Yankees projected to hit .289/.372/.465 over 4870 PA, which would have been worth 724 BR.  Instead, the starting nine hit .280/.352/.443 over 4896 PA, for a total of 653 BR.  That’s a 71 run drop off or 7.1 win drop off.

The Bench
Projecting the bench is usually tricky, but at least on paper the Yankee bench looked to be serviceable this year, with Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Jose Molina, Shelley Duncan, Brett Gardner, Alberto Gonzalez, Nick Green, Jason Lane and Chris Woodward the likely candidates to see playing time.  I had the bench projected to hit .247/.319/.404 over 1811 PA, which would have been worth 209 BR.  Instead, the collection of Betemit, Ensberg, Posada,  Duncan, Gardner, Gonzalez, Justin Christian, Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, Chad Moeller, Xavier Nady, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Chris Stewart and Cody Ransom hit over .244/.306/.380 over 1339 PA for a total of 140 BR. That’s a 69 run underperformance.

Clutchness
Regular watchers of the 2008 Yankees as well as regular readers of this blog also know from a variety of different methods that the Yankees underperformed with runners on base.  Using the method I like best (Fangraph’s batting runs above average based on run expectancy), here’s a look at how the Yankees’ players context neutral batting runs compared to their contextualized batting runs in 2008.

Overall, the difference was small, but I think we can all pick out several games where the Yankees failure to come up with hits in big spots cost them wins.

cnBRAA: context-neutral batting runs above average.
cxtBRAA: contextualized batting runs above average.
Diff: cxtBRAA - cnBRAA.

I don’t know how good or bad the team baserunning has been aside from stolen bases, which are already included in the batting runs above, so we’ll assume they were average.

Let’s roll all that up.

So we had a team that was supposed to score 933 runs or so.  Their starting nine created 71 fewer runs than expected, and their bench created 69 fewer than expected, for a total shortfall of around 141 runs.  Subract another three runs for unclutchness.

933 run projection - 141 actual underperformance - 3 clutchness = 789.

How many runs did the 2008 Yankees score?  789. That’s creepy, huh?

If you were to rate the biggest reasons for the Yankees’ offensive underperformance, it’d be:
1) Losing Jorge Posada (55 runs)
2) Melky Cabrera sucking ass (27 runs)
3) Hideki Matsui’s knee causing him to both miss time and to underperform when he returned (24 runs)
4) Robinson Cano becoming Wayne Tolleson (16 runs)

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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy

My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me.  Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral.  Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced.  The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it. 

BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.

What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores.  Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.

Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.

Here’s the offense.

Here are the starting pitchers.

Here are the relievers.

And here’s everyone.

These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that.  Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.

C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6

So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated).  Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.

These numbers are against average, not replacement level.  Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.

This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA.  An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.

Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.

And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.

And the bottom 25.

Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.

--Posted at 12:08 pm by SG / 23 Comments | - (357)

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Monday, August 11, 2008

Clutchness and the 2008 Yankees

In the previous thread, PhilRizzuto raised a question about how bad the Yankees have been hitting this year with runners in scoring position. I think anyone who's watched this team all season knows they've been bad even without looking at the numbers, but since I'm a stat dork, let's look at some stats.

First off, let's take a look at the 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. According to the aggregate of six different projection systems, the Yankees projected to score 924 runs this year. Losing Alex Rodriguez for a month and losing Jorge Posada obviously put a damper on that.

In addition, the run environment in the AL is down this year. Last year, AL teams averaged 4.93 runs per game and hit for a line of .271/.338/.423. This year they are averaging 4.71 runs per game and are hitting .266/.334/.416. So that's around a 4% reduction in run scoring. The standard deviation on the AL runs scored using last year's total of 11185 is 106 runs, so one standard deviation in either direction gives us 4.88 runs per game to 4.98 runs per game. Two standard deviations gives us 4.84 runs to 5.02 runs per game. So the lower AL scoring this season appears to be statistically significant.

Rank	Team	RF/G
1	Texas	5.61
2	Detroit	5.09
3	Chicago Sox	5.01
4	Boston	5.00
5	Minnesota	4.97
6	Baltimore	4.92
7	NY Yankees	4.82
8	LA Angels	4.73
9	Cleveland	4.66
10	Tampa Bay	4.61
11	Toronto	4.24
12	Kansas City	4.20
13	Seattle	4.12
14	Oakland	4.02

Still, the Yankees are 7th in the league in actual runs scored.

But what about the park factors you ask? Using a weighted average of 2006-2008, here's how the rankings would look (park factors from The 4 letter.com).

Rank	Team	PkAdj RF/G
1	Texas	5.39
2	Minnesota	5.30
3	Detroit	4.91
4	Tampa Bay	4.81
5	Chicago Sox	4.81
6	Boston	4.75
7	Baltimore	4.73
8	NY Yankees	4.66
9	LA Angels	4.61
10	Cleveland	4.60
11	Toronto	4.33
12	Seattle	4.26
13	Oakland	4.23
14	Kansas City	4.14

Either way, the Yankee offense has been mediocre this year, despite projecting to be one of the better ones in the league. They are on pace to score 781 runs, That's a falloff of almost 200 runs from last season.

According to linear weights, the context-independent batting events that the Yankee offense has accrued this year should total 586 runs. Using runs created instead of linear weights says they should have scored 598. So why have they only scored 568?

First of all, the Yankees have hit into what seems like a million double plays. The actual number is 109, which is the fourth highest total in the league. Adding those DPs into linear weights knocks the runs scored estimate down by 11 runs. But getting back to the clutch thing, The Hardball Times tracks a stat called 'clutch' coincidentally enough. Now the whole concept of clutch is murky and hard to define, so this is just one of probably a million different ways to measure it. Anyway, the definition of clutch they are using is based of the 2002 version of Bill James's runs created and is defined as:

Hits(with runners in scoring position) - (AB with RISP times BA) + HR(with runners on base) - (AB(with runners on base) times HR)/AB).

or


Clutch is expressed in terms of runs above and below average. Here's how the Yankees rate.

Tm	Clutch
MIN	37
LAA	35
BAL	27
OAK	22
KC	20
CHA	14
CLE	14
TEX	12
DET	-9
TOR	-11
SEA	-11
BOS	-15
TB	-18
NYA	-26

I know it's hard to believe, but yes, the Yankees are the unclutchest(is that a word?) team in the AL this year. Here are the individuals and their clutch rankings.

Last, First	Tm	Lg	Pos	Clutch
Damon, Johnny	NYA	AL	LF	7
Abreu, Bobby	NYA	AL	RF	4.5
Gardner, Brett	NYA	AL	LF	3.6
Christian, Justin	NYA	AL	LF	1.8
Matsui, Hideki	NYA	AL	DH	0.8
Sexson, Richie	NYA	AL	1B	0.5
Moeller, Chad	NYA	AL	C	0.4
Jeter, Derek	NYA	AL	SS	0.1
Stewart, Chris D	NYA	AL	C	0
Duncan, Shelley	NYA	AL	1B	-0.3
Posada, Jorge	NYA	AL	C	-1.2
Gonzalez, Alberto R	NYA	AL	SS	-1.3
Ensberg, Morgan	NYA	AL	3B	-1.6
Cano, Robinson	NYA	AL	2B	-1.7
Nady, Xavier	NYA	AL	LF	-2.1
Molina, Jose	NYA	AL	C	-3.5
Betemit, Wilson	NYA	AL	1B	-3.9
Rodriguez, Ivan	NYA	AL	C	-5.3
Cabrera, Melky	NYA	AL	CF	-5.5
Giambi, Jason	NYA	AL	1B	-10.3
Rodriguez, Alex	NYA	AL	3B	-13.2

Now I'm not really going to get into the whole clutch hitting as a skill thing here. Well, maybe just for a second. This is not a measure of a player's clutch skill/ability, it's a measure of their value in the current season. Last year, Alex Rodriguez's clutch rating was +9.8. Did Madonna make him unclutch? In 2006 it was +3.2, in 2005 it -8.8.

It's definitely a problem when your two best offensive players aren't hitting with runners in scoring position though. And how the hell is Pudge -5.3 already? He's only played in like 5 games.

If we add those clutch values to the players' position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level here's how the players rank.

Last, First	Tm	Lg	Pos	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	pBRAR	Clutch	Total
Damon, Johnny	NYA	AL	LF	443	.322	.392	.459	26.9	7	33.9
Rodriguez, Alex	NYA	AL	3B	420	.315	.402	.599	45.4	-13.2	32.2
Abreu, Bobby	NYA	AL	RF	500	.287	.358	.467	19.2	4.5	23.7
Giambi, Jason	NYA	AL	1B	397	.252	.393	.517	29.5	-10.3	19.2
Jeter, Derek	NYA	AL	SS	499	.283	.346	.398	18.9	0.1	19.0
Matsui, Hideki	NYA	AL	DH	285	.323	.404	.458	14.5	0.8	15.3
Posada, Jorge	NYA	AL	C	195	.268	.364	.411	8.6	-1.2	7.4
Nady, Xavier	NYA	AL	LF	58	.365	.431	.731	8.0	-2.1	5.9
Christian, Justin	NYA	AL	LF	39	.278	.333	.361	1.0	1.8	2.8
Sexson, Richie	NYA	AL	1B	30	.292	.400	.458	1.7	0.5	2.2
Moeller, Chad	NYA	AL	C	84	.227	.310	.333	0.4	0.4	0.8
Stewart, Chris D	NYA	AL	C	3	.000	.000	.000	-0.7	0	-0.7
Gardner, Brett	NYA	AL	LF	68	.153	.227	.169	-4.8	3.6	-1.2
Duncan, Shelley	NYA	AL	1B	65	.175	.262	.281	-2.9	-0.3	-3.2
Cano, Robinson	NYA	AL	2B	461	.263	.300	.397	-3.1	-1.7	-4.8
Rodriguez, Ivan	NYA	AL	C	19	.278	.316	.444	0.2	-5.3	-5.1
Gonzalez, Alberto R	NYA	AL	SS	58	.173	.232	.212	-3.9	-1.3	-5.2
Betemit, Wilson	NYA	AL	1B	153	.253	.276	.411	-2.2	-3.9	-6.1
Ensberg, Morgan	NYA	AL	3B	80	.203	.263	.243	-5.1	-1.6	-6.7
Molina, Jose	NYA	AL	C	237	.230	.278	.315	-4.1	-3.5	-7.6
Cabrera, Melky	NYA	AL	CF	435	.245	.299	.341	-7.9	-5.5	-13.4

Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi's clutch performances hurt their value, but they still have been valuable this year, just not as valuable as the raw numbers may show. Johnny Popup isn't a bad player, but if he's your most valuable offensive performer you probably have issues. And boy, does Melky stink.

Do I think clutch hitters exist? Not really, but I do think unclutch hitters can exist, and I do think pressure can have some impact, although it's my opinion that it's not nearly as big of a deal as it's made out to be by the mass media. Also, this is just one definition of clutch, a different definiton may show something totally different, so keep that in mind.

So yeah, the 2008 Yankees have been unclutch by this measure. I'm guessing you didn't need a blog entry to know that though.

--Posted at 9:25 am by SG / 67 Comments | - (283)

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Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Yankee Defense by Zone Rating through May 18, 2008

Player	Pos	G	INN	PO	A	E	DP	Ch	ZR	Avg ZR	PM	AvgPM	Diff	RS	RS/162
Giambi, Jason	1B	31	268.2	296	13	2	26	59	.814	.867	48	51	-3	-3	-14
Duncan, Shelley	1B	8	63	59	3	1	5	8	1.000	.867	8	7	1	1	19
Ensberg, Morgan	1B	6	34	38	0	0	1	4	1.000	.867	4	3	1	0	18
Betemit, Wilson	1B	2	11	12	1	0	1	2	1.000	.867	2	2	0	0	28
Posada, Jorge	1B	1	8	7	0	0	1	3	.667	.867	2	3	-1	0	-86
Damon, Johnny	1B	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.867	0	0	0	0	0
Cano, Robinson	2B	43	364.2	86	140	4	32	151	.841	.829	127	125	2	1	5
Gonzalez, Alberto	2B	3	21	3	6	0	1	9	.778	.829	7	7	0	0	-24
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	21	178	15	47	2	6	56	.893	.800	50	45	5	4	34
Ensberg, Morgan	3B	17	124	8	30	1	2	45	.689	.800	31	36	-5	-4	-47
Gonzalez, Alberto	3B	10	53.2	5	11	1	2	14	.857	.800	12	11	1	1	17
Betemit, Wilson	3B	5	30	3	9	1	2	15	.667	.800	10	12	-2	-2	-77
Cabrera, Melky	CF	42	352.2	98	2	1	0	107	.907	.901	97	96	1	0	2
Damon, Johnny	CF	4	33	5	0	0	0	7	.714	.901	5	6	-1	-1	-48
Damon, Johnny	LF	33	272.1	60	0	0	0	65	.892	.846	58	55	3	2	13
Matsui, Hideki	LF	14	113.1	27	1	1	0	36	.694	.846	25	30	-5	-5	-58
Abreu, Bobby	RF	42	353.2	77	4	1	1	94	.830	.867	78	81	-3	-3	-12
Matsui, Hideki	RF	3	18	2	0	0	0	2	1.000	.867	2	2	0	0	18
Duncan, Shelley	RF	3	14	2	0	0	0	2	1.000	.867	2	2	0	0	23
Jeter, Derek	SS	38	328.2	45	95	4	19	113	.796	.837	90	95	-5	-3	-15
Gonzalez, Alberto	SS	5	41	10	14	0	2	12	1.000	.837	12	10	2	1	52
Betemit, Wilson	SS	3	16	2	6	0	1	6	.833	.837	5	5	0	0	-2

Pos: Position
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games

--Posted at 7:02 am by SG / 41 Comments | - (410)

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

Why The Yankees Are Losing

The chart below shows the Yankees' average projections pro-rated to their actual playing time this season on the left. On the right are the actual YTD performance.

Team	NYA		Proj						Actual
Starters	POS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		Diff
Jorge Posada	C	66	.293	.392	.499	11		66	.302	.333	.476	9		-2
Jason Giambi	1B	139	.256	.399	.499	23		139	.193	.345	.468	19		-3
Robinson Cano	2B	164	.312	.347	.489	24		164	.208	.256	.318	10		-13
Alex Rodriguez	3B	99	.300	.402	.569	18		99	.286	.343	.495	15		-4
Derek Jeter	SS	163	.318	.388	.463	25		163	.314	.346	.431	20		-5
Johnny Damon	LF	175	.286	.357	.438	24		175	.257	.341	.454	24		0
Melky Cabrera	CF	158	.281	.341	.403	19		158	.262	.325	.426	19		0
Bobby Abreu	RF	176	.284	.392	.461	28		176	.288	.352	.450	23		-5
Hideki Matsui	DH	163	.291	.370	.489	25		163	.306	.387	.458	24		-1
Starters Total		1303	.292	.373	.471	197		1303	.287	.336	.436	163		-34
Bench	POS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		Diff
Shelley Duncan	1B	41	.257	.322	.480	6		41	.194	.293	.250	3		-3
Chad Moeller	C	41	.231	.287	.373	4		41	.243	.317	.378	4		0
Alberto Gonzalez	SS	41	.250	.300	.351	4		41	.257	.333	.314	4		0
Jose Molina	C	84	.250	.287	.375	8		84	.203	.220	.304	5		-4
Chris Stewart	C	3	.250	.300	.375	0		3	.000	.000	.000	0		-1
Morgan Ensberg	3B	76	.261	.368	.467	11		76	.214	.276	.257	4		-7
Wilson Betemit	SS	27	.265	.338	.443	4		27	.269	.296	.462	3		0
Bench Total		313	.256	.316	.410	36		313	.233	.275	.308	22		-14
Team Total		1616	.285	.362	.459	233		1616	.258	.325	.410	186		-48

BR here are batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average). Apart from Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera, every Yankee starter has provided less offense than projected and overall the starters are 34 runs below their expectations. The bench has also significantly underperformed to the tune of 14 runs below expectations.

The Yankees are 48 runs below expectations even accounting for the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. That's five wins, and it at least partially explains why they are 20-23. If the offense had played as expected, they'd be 25-18, which is a 94 win pace and right around where they should have been. Offense is down in the AL by around 11% this season, but the Yankees are scoring 20% less frequently than expected so that's not the whole explanation.

The pitching and defense have not been the problem. The defense is below average but it was supposed to be. The pitching staff has been a little worse than average, but not egregiously so (-2 runs saved above average). It's the lack of offense that's killing this team. Unfortunately, I don't see any moves that can be done to fix that.

--Posted at 2:04 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (353)

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Monday, April 21, 2008

April 21 - Yankee Offense Projections vs. Actuals

So the team that I projected to score around 930 runs this year is on pace to score 689, which would rank ninth in the AL if things held up. Here's a look at each player's contributions to that.

Player	pAVG	pOBP	pSLG	pBR	aAVG	aOBP	aSLG	aBR	Brdiff
Jose Molina	.243	.280	.360	3	.333	.333	.528	6	3
Chad Moeller	.225	.299	.348	2	.350	.435	.600	5	3
Hideki Matsui	.287	.367	.477	11	.323	.405	.523	13	2
Melky Cabrera	.282	.344	.406	8	.281	.353	.456	10	1
Alberto Gonzalez	.253	.301	.348	2	.333	.400	.467	3	1
Morgan Ensberg	.248	.365	.446	3	.333	.333	.500	3	0
Shelley Duncan	.243	.311	.453	1	.200	.200	.200	0	-1
Johnny Damon	.280	.353	.423	11	.215	.333	.400	10	-1
Bobby Abreu	.277	.383	.439	12	.306	.367	.458	11	-1
Alex Rodriguez	.300	.406	.574	16	.308	.357	.551	14	-1
Wilson Betemit	.258	.333	.445	2	.154	.214	.154	0	-2
Derek Jeter	.307	.379	.438	8	.309	.339	.418	7	-2
Jorge Posada	.286	.380	.469	7	.261	.306	.391	5	-2
Jason Giambi	.245	.387	.474	9	.109	.288	.283	5	-4
Robinson Cano	.308	.348	.482	12	.169	.200	.234	2	-9
Total	.280	.362	.453	107	.265	.331	.425	93	-13

pAVG: Projected batting average
pOBP: Projected on base percentage
pSLG: Projected slugging average
pBR: Projected batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
aAVG: Actual batting average
aOBP: Actual on base percentage
aSLG: Actual slugging average
aBR: Actual batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
Brdiff: Difference between projected batting runs and actual, pro-rated to actual playing time

There are some rounding issues in the table above so if things don't seem to add up here, trust me, they actually do in Excel. The batting runs are adjusted for actual playing time so it's a direct comparison, but no position-adjusment is included. The Yankee offense theoretically should have scored 13 fewer runs than you'd expect given the allocation of playing time and the players' projections on offense. They're actually even worse than that at 85 runs, thanks to poor hitting in the clutch primarily.

God bless Molino and Moello, or they'd be six runs worse than that. Add in the pitching staff, which has the fifth worst RA in the AL at 4.82 and has saved five fewer runs than average, and you have a 23 run deficit, which is about 2.3 wins. Not coincidentally, they sit 10-10 while log5 says they should have expected to be 11.6 - 8.4 to this point.

For all the crap Giambi's been getting, Cano is the single biggest problem on this team. He's been so bad offensively that even with the +1 defense he's played so far, his overall "value" to the team is -8 runs. Let's hope for a heat wave soon.

--Posted at 8:37 pm by SG / 34 Comments | - (384)

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Friday, April 11, 2008

Worst Offense Ever Takes a Night Off

In a shocking turn of events, the Yankees managed to score a decent number of runs last night, beating the Royals 6-1. Granted, two of the runs came in the ninth inning against Hideo Nomo, who I could have sworn has been retired for a few years, but it was still good to see. Jorge Posada's HR was especially nice considering the way he has started the season off with his injury and ineffectiveness.

More important than the offensive outburst was Andy Pettitte's good pitching. Pettitte went six and two-thirds innings and allowed just one run and five hits. The Yankees really need Pettitte and Wang to do what they are projected to do this season if they want to have a shot at the postseason. it was still a save situation when Pettitte was pulled so Joba Chamberlain pitched the end of the seventh as well as the eighth. I like seeing Joba pitch more than one inning because I still think he should end up in the rotation. Mariano Rivera came in to pitch the ninth despite the Yankees adding a couple of runs, which was fine, he hadn't pitched for a few days and was already warmed up anyway. One thing that I noticed last night is Mo was throwing a lot of two-seamers. I'd like to see him continue to do that.

Now comes three games against some .500 team. Your pitching matchups for the weekend:

Friday April 11: C. Wang (2-0,1.38) vs. C. Buchholz (0-1,5.40)
Saturday April 12: M. Mussina (1-1,3.09) vs. J. Beckett (0-1,9.64)
Sunday April 13: P. Hughes (0-1,5.00) vs. D. Matsuzaka (2-0,1.47)

I hate these series, mainly because of the ridiculous hype certain media outlets try to give these games. It's an interesting set of matchups. Wang makes his first road start of the year and the Yankees haven't seen Buccholz before, so hopefully he doesn't no-hit them. Beckett's still working his way back to full strength but Moose is going to have to try to trick one of the better lineups in baseball, and who knows what either Hughes or Matsuzaka will bring on Sunday night?

Since I don't know how long this will last, here's an early meaningless and small sample size look at how the Yankee defense has performed according to zone rating so far this season.

Player	Pos	G	INN	Ch	ZR	PM	AvgPM	Diff	RS	RS/162
Giambi, Jason	1B	6	43	11	.818	9	10	-1	0	-15
Ensberg, Morgan	1B	3	17	3	1.000	3	3	0	0	26
Betemit, Wilson	1B	2	11	2	1.000	2	2	0	0	27
Duncan, Shelley	1B	1	9	0	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Cano, Robinson	2B	10	88	43	.837	36	36	0	0	6
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	10	87	29	.931	27	23	4	3	50
Betemit, Wilson	3B	1	1	0	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Molina, Jose	C	7	55	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	4
Posada, Jorge	C	4	33	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	7
Cabrera, Melky	CF	8	70	21	.810	17	19	-2	-2	-31
Damon, Johnny	CF	2	18	3	1.000	3	3	0	0	21
Damon, Johnny	LF	6	53	9	1.000	9	8	1	1	28
Matsui, Hideki	LF	3	27	7	.571	4	6	-2	-2	-90
Abreu, Bobby	RF	8	70	10	.900	9	9	0	0	2
Matsui, Hideki	RF	1	9	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	15
Duncan, Shelley	RF	1	1	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	137
Jeter, Derek	SS	7	56	26	.731	19	22	-3	-2	-54
Gonzalez, Alberto	SS	2	17	5	1.000	5	4	1	1	52
Betemit, Wilson	SS	2	15	5	1.000	5	4	1	1	58
Total		84	680	178	.854	152	150	2	1	21

INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games

Melky's had some tough chances so I wouldn't pay much heed to his numbers yet, but I think Hideki Matsui needs to be kept out of the outfield whenever possible. For those of you thinking Alex Rodriguez is playing Gold Glove caliber defense this year, you're right.

In bad news down on the farm, Alan Horne suffered some kind of injury in his start last night and will have an MRI today. Let's hope for good news there.

--Posted at 7:58 am by SG / 40 Comments | - (409)

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Thursday, April 10, 2008

Oh Where, Oh Where Has My Little Offense Gone?

While my head knows that nine games is still way too small of a sample size to draw undue distinctions from, it sure didn’t feel like it while I watched the again punchless Yankees fall to Kansas City 4-0 last night.  Granted, sometimes you run into a Roy Halladay.  Sometimes you run into A.J. Burnett. Sometimes you run into Dustin McGowan. Sometimes you run into   Andy Sonnastine. Sometimes you run into Edwin Jackson.  Sometimes you run into James Shields.  Sometimes you run into Jason Hammel.  Sometimes you run into Brian Bannister.  Sometimes you run into Zach Greinke.  But come on, ALL NINE OF THEM?

With a forecast of rain all night, Joe Girardi pulled Ian Kennedy from starting the game and went with Brian Bruney to start the game.  The reason given was so that they wouldn’t start the game with Kennedy and then lose him if the rain stopped the game.  Considering the grief Girardi got for bringing back Josh Johnson from a long rain delay when he managed the Marlins in 2006 and Johnson’s subsequent breakdown which may or not have been related, this was pretty interesting out of the box thinking.  For the most part it seemed to work well, although it likely cost the Yankees the use of Bruney and Farnsworth in today’s game.  That’s probably bad in the former case but not necessarily so in the latter case.  Kennedy ended up pitching the 6th through 8th, starting off poorly but finishing off pretty well.

The pitching didn’t really matter because the offense continued to stink.  Here’s how the Yankees rate by position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights to this point.

Matsui : 2
Abreu : 1.5
Rodriguez : 0.7
Molina : 0.3
Gonzalez : 0.2
Cabrera : 0.1
Ensberg : -0.5
Damon : -0.5
Duncan : -0.5
Betemit : -1
Jeter : -1.5
Posada : -1.9
Giambi : -2.4
Cano : -4.4

How is Damon not worse?  Hey Robinson, feel free to stop sucking.  How bad has Cano been?  Here are the five worst offensive players so far in the AL this season by position-adjusted BRAA:

Crawford : -4.3
Johjima : -4.3
Ortiz : -4.3
Cano : -4.4
Polanco : -4.6

Only Placido Polanco has been worse.  He’s in good company with David Ortiz and Carl Crawford at least.

Like I said, it’s still too early to panic, but it’s probably not too early to get irritated or annoyed.

--Posted at 7:53 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (371)

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Saturday, March 8, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - Position Player Wrapup

So now that I've gone through the position players, it's time to close out what the outlook is on a team level. To do that I've built depth charts on offense and defense which we can use as a rough gauge,

Offensively, there's little question that the Yankees are probably the most talented team in baseball. The one question that could impact that is the health of their regulars given their ages. Projections of single players are for the most part objective, but when we try to roll them up into a team-wide performance we will run into subjective issues with playing time, so keep that in mind.

This is my projected lineup for the Yankees this year. I am basing the playing time on their projected playing time with some downward adjustments for potential injuries. I am allocating total playing time based on expected outs by each player, with the assumption that the team will have 27 outs per game minus about 80 outs to account for ninth innings in home victories, so a total of 4294 outs. I didn't subtract more outs than that to account for extra innings.

The projections below are the average of five systems (CHONE, MARCEL, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO). The last column (BR) is batting runs by linear weights. There are no position adjustments or comparisons to average in the batting runs calculated here, since I am looking for a total number.

Starters	POS	AVG	OBP	SLG	PA	Outs	BR
Johnny Damon	LF	.280	.353	.423	585	379	78
Derek Jeter	SS	.307	.379	.438	600	373	86
Bobby Abreu	RF	.277	.383	.439	600	370	89
Alex Rodriguez	3B	.300	.406	.574	650	386	123
Jason Giambi	1B	.245	.387	.474	300	184	46
Jorge Posada	C	.286	.380	.469	500	310	76
Hideki Matsui	DH	.287	.367	.477	500	316	74
Robinson Cano	2B	.308	.348	.482	585	381	84
Melky Cabrera	CF	.282	.344	.406	550	361	68
Starters Total		.289	.372	.465	4870	3060	724

I can't account for the event of catastrophic injury here, so I tried to spread the injury risk among everyone with the exception of Giambi, who I'm assuming will be restricted to around 300 plate appearances. Outs are just calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA.

Here's how the bench looks.

Bench	POS	AVG	OBP	SLG	PA	Outs	BR
Wilson Betemit	3B	.258	.333	.445	350	233	46
Morgan Ensberg	1B	.248	.365	.446	290	184	40
Jose Molina	C	.243	.280	.360	250	180	23
Shelley Duncan	1B	.243	.311	.453	250	172	32
Brett Gardner	OF	.253	.325	.327	150	101	15
Alberto Gonzalez	SS	.253	.301	.348	140	98	13
Nick Green	UT	.246	.308	.397	129	89	14
Jason Lane	OF	.235	.311	.414	127	87	15
Chris Woodward	UT	.234	.294	.339	125	88	11
Bench Total		.247	.312	.404	1811	1234	209

I have no idea if any of Jason Lane, Nick Green or Chris Woodward will see any playing time but I figure they will be stashed at Scranton so there's at least some possibility of it. What should be obvious is that the Yankees have two potentially strong bench players in Betemit and Ensberg, who both project well enough to be starters at their respective positions. That helps mitigate any potential injuries in the infield with Betemit's ability to cover any position and with Ensberg presumably able to cover 3B and 1B.

Add it up, and here's what you get.

Team Total	AVG	OBP	SLG	PA	Outs	BR
Starters + Bench	.277	.355	.448	6681	4294	933

The sigma on a team's runs scored in a season is around 30, so that puts the Yankees in a range of 903-963 runs scored this year on paper using the projections I'm using and the playing time assumptions I'm using.

Looking at baserunning using Lee Panas's bases gained above average, here's how the players that Lee had data for did last year:

Player	Team	BGAA Hits	BGAA Ground	BGAA Air	BGAA Other	BGAA Total
Damon	NYA	3.7	2.3	12.3	15.3	33.6
Rodriguez	NYA	11.8	2.7	2.5	11.1	28.1
Abreu	NYA	1.1	1.2	5.7	0.7	8.7
Jeter	NYA	9	-3.6	1.3	-3	3.7
Matsui	NYA	4.5	1.5	-2.3	-2.8	0.9
Cabrera	NYA	4.9	2.6	-6.9	-1.4	-0.8
Cano	NYA	4.6	6	-5.3	-8.7	-3.4
Giambi	NYA	-9.1	0.5	-1	-0.6	-10.3
Posada	NYA	-7.5	-5	-5.1	-0.6	-18.2
Ensberg	NYA	-6.3	2.8	-2.4	-0.2	-6.1
		16.7	11	-1.2	9.8	36.2

A team total of 36 would be worth an additional 10 runs, but we should regress that towards average since we only have one year of data. Let's assume the Yankees will be about 5 runs better than average on the bases this year.

So we've got 933 runs at the plate and another 5 on the bases, but unfortunately, we're not quite done yet.

Projecting defense is tricky, but I'm going to take a stab at it anyway. Using zone rating projections and defensive depth charts, here's how that looks.

First up, the expected starters. A full season is about 1450 defensive innings.

Starters	POS	Inn	Proj CH	Proj ZR	Proj PM	Avg ZR	Avg PM	PMAA	RSAA
Jason Giambi	1B	500	96	.796	77	.841	81	-4	-3
Robinson Cano	2B	1300	479	.833	399	.823	394	5	4
Alex Rodriguez	3B	1300	392	.758	298	.761	298	-1	-1
Derek Jeter	SS	1300	487	.806	392	.825	402	-9	-7
Johnny Damon	LF	1000	257	.869	223	.862	222	2	1
Melky Cabrera	CF	1100	361	.898	324	.885	320	5	4
Bobby Abreu	RF	1300	325	.864	280	.868	282	-1	-1
Total		13050	2397		1993		1999	-5	-4

POS: Position
Inn: Defensive innings
Proj CH: Projected chances
Proj ZR: Projected zone rating
Proj PM: Projected plays made
Avg ZR: Average projected ZR at POS
Avg PM: Average plays made
PMAA: Plays made above average
RSAA: Runs saved above average

That looks like the best defensive team the Yankees have run out there in a while, with only Giambi and Jeter as big minuses. In Giambi's case he probably won't play enough to really hurt the team, and in Jeter's case the more he plays the more he bats so I guess it's not really all that bad.

Filling in the remaining innings with bench guys, here's what I get.

Bench	POS	Inn	Proj CH	Proj ZR	Proj PM	Avg ZR	Avg PM	PMAA	RSAA
Wilson Betemit	1B	400	77	.816	63	.841	65	-2	-2
Wilson Betemit	2B	80	29	.813	24	.823	24	0	0
Wilson Betemit	3B	50	15	.786	12	.761	11	0	0
Wilson Betemit	SS	100	37	.793	30	.825	31	-1	-1
Shelley Duncan	1B	100	19	.834	16	.841	16	0	0
Shelley Duncan	LF	50	13	.871	11	.862	11	0	0
Shelley Duncan	RF	50	12	.875	11	.868	11	0	0
Jason Lane	LF	50	13	.869	11	.862	11	0	0
Jason Lane	CF	200	66	.833	55	.885	58	-3	-3
Jason Lane	RF	100	25	.828	21	.868	22	-1	-1
Morgan Ensberg	1B	450	87	.816	71	.841	73	-2	-2
Morgan Ensberg	3B	90	27	.791	21	.761	21	1	1
Nick Green	2B	40	15	.804	12	.823	12	0	0
Nick Green	SS	40	15	.825	12	.825	12	0	0
Chris Woodward	2B	30	11	.807	9	.823	9	0	0
Chris Woodward	3B	10	3	.846	3	.761	2	0	0
Chris Woodward	SS	10	4	.842	3	.825	3	0	0
Hideki Matsui	LF	350	90	.833	75	.862	78	-3	-2
Johnny Damon	CF	150	49	.881	43	.885	44	0	0

The Yankee bench may end up hitting pretty well for a bench, but they don't look to field particularly well.

Let's add in the catchers:

Catchers	Inn	SB	CS	CS%	PBWPR	TER	FER	Tot R	R/140
Posada	1022	83	31	27%	-2	1	0	-4	-4
Molina	428	20	14	40%	-2	0	0	-3	-8

And let's then add it all up.

Pos	Inn	Proj CH	Proj ZR	Proj PM	Avg ZR	Avg PM	PMAA	RS
1B	1450	279	.810	226	.841	235	-9	-7
2B	1450	534	.831	443	.823	439	4	3
3B	1450	438	.762	333	.761	333	1	0
SS	1450	543	.806	438	.825	448	-10	-8
LF	1450	373	.860	321	.862	321	-1	-1
CF	1450	476	.887	423	.885	422	1	1
RF	1450	362	.862	312	.868	314	-2	-2
C	1450							-7
Total	11600	3005	.831	2496	.836	2513	-17	-13

So overall, the Yankees are projecting to be about 13 runs worse than an average team defensively, which seems bad but for them is pretty good considering some of the teams that they've run out there recently.

So what do all these dorky numbers really mean? The Yankee position players project to score about 938 runs and allow 13 runs more than an average team. According to my Diamond Mind projections which should be released sometime around March 24, the average non-Yankee AL team projects to score 786 runs and be average defensively (shocking, I realize).

938 - 13 - 786 = 139

So the Yankee position players project to be about 14 wins better than an average (81 win team). Now injury or a bigger decline than projected could certainly affect those numbers, but then again a meteor could hit earth and make it all moot too. 81 + 14 = 95 wins. The next question will be whether the pitching staff is going to be able to do their part, which I'll try and answer over the next couple of weeks.

Update: In case any one wants to mess around with different playing times, I've made a spreadsheet that you can use. You can download it here. You can change the players and plate appearances on offense, and on defense you can mess around with innings and positions.

For offense, the projected outs should = the expected outs, you'll have to adjust the plate appearances to get to that. On defense, defensive innings at a position should sum up to 1450.

--Posted at 9:01 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (903)

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Friday, March 7, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Bench

We've gone through the likely starters for the 2008 Yankees, so now it's time to take a look at the guys on the bench. I won't look back at 2007 for these guys, I'll just look at what they project to do this year.

Wilson Betemit
Scott Proctor and his tattered arm were shipped to Los Angeles of Los Angeles last season to acquire Betemit. Betemit's a fairly young player who was once a highly touted prospect in the Braves' farm system. Although he's a switch-hitter, he has exhibited a very significant platoon split in his career.

Vs RHP: .268/.347/.464 in 800 PA
Vs LHP: .232/.281/.353 in 227 PA

Now, 227 plate appearances aren't enough to give us a solid window of Betemit's actual skill vs LHP. The sigma on his OPS vs lefties is .149, so we can say we can estimate his true talent OPS against lefties to be somewhere in the range of .485 - .783. So it's tough to say that Betemit is really a platoon player just yet.

Here's how Betemit's 2008 projections look. I am comparing him to the average 3B here.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	368	331	46	84	17	1	14	41	2	1	36	89	1	.254	.329	.438	-1	9
marcel	383	338	47	90	19	1	14	51	3	1	39	89	1	.266	.339	.453	2	12
pecota	265	234	31	60	13	1	9	36	2	1	27	69	1	.255	.331	.437	-1	6
zips	336	301	42	78	17	1	14	46	1	1	34	86	1	.259	.336	.462	2	11
cairo	228	200	30	51	10	1	8	27	1	1	22	51	1	.254	.326	.428	-2	4
average	316	281	39	72	15	1	12	40	2	1	32	77	1	.258	.332	.443	0	8
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	228	200	35	58	13	2	11	32	1	0	27	44	2	.290	.382	.530	9	15
65%	228	200	33	55	11	1	9	30	1	0	25	47	1	.272	.354	.479	3	9
Baseline	228	200	30	51	10	1	8	27	1	1	22	51	1	.254	.326	.428	-2	4
35%	228	200	27	47	8	0	6	24	0	1	20	54	0	.236	.298	.377	-7	-1
20%	228	200	24	44	7	0	5	22	0	2	18	58	0	.219	.270	.326	-13	-7

Betemit projects to hit about as well as an average 3B. which is pretty damn good for a backup IF.

Defensively, Betemit could see some time at first base depending on how the great Giambi experiment pans out, or in the late innings for defense, but right now his primarily role will be backing up the entire infield. He's a good bat for an infielder, but reviews are mixed on his defense. The numbers aren't great, but we have the small sample size issue to contend with.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2007	AL	NYY	1B	Wilson Betemit	26	14	9	74	67	4	0	9	14	18	.778	-1	-1	-18
2005	NL	Atl	2B	Wilson Betemit	23	1	1	8	1	3	0	0	3	3	1.000	1	0	77
2006	NL	Atl	2B	Wilson Betemit	24	10	9	69	26	20	0	7	17	22	.773	-1	-1	-15
2007	AL	NYY	2B	Wilson Betemit	26	2	2	17	3	7	0	1	6	7	.857	0	0	15
2007	NL	LA	2B	Wilson Betemit	26	1	1	6	1	0	0	1	0	2	.000	-2	-1	-291
2004	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	22	7	4	39	2	6	0	2	7	7	1.000	2	1	47
2005	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	23	63	46	431	26	94	6	6	103	124	.831	5	4	13
2006	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	24	30	20	204	8	40	3	9	41	51	.804	1	1	6
2006	NL	LA	3B	Wilson Betemit	24	49	45	398	24	83	4	9	83	109	.761	-3	-2	-7
2007	AL	NYY	3B	Wilson Betemit	26	14	5	56	1	14	2	3	15	19	.789	1	0	11
2007	NL	LA	3B	Wilson Betemit	26	53	39	353	20	60	4	6	62	86	.721	-4	-4	-15
2004	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	22	11	7	75	12	30	3	5	29	35	.829	0	0	-6
2005	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	23	25	10	136	24	40	1	10	36	48	.750	-4	-3	-36
2006	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	24	18	10	92	20	33	5	10	27	40	.675	-6	-5	-75
2007	AL	NYY	SS	Wilson Betemit	26	8	4	39	9	9	1	2	8	9	.889	1	0	17
2007	NL	LA	SS	Wilson Betemit	26	2	0	7	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	26
Projection			1B			14	9	223	67	4	0	9	14	18	.778	0	0	0
Projection			2B			4	4	92	10	10	0	3	8	10	.791	-2	-2	-27
Projection			3B			43	32	896	17	59	4	6	62	79	.779	-1	0	-1
Projection			SS			15	7	239	15	26	2	6	23	30	.750	0	0	-3

I debated including the defensive numbers for any of the bench candidates since there are sample size issues, but I'll present them with the caveat that there is not enough data to make any definitive assessment of what they may tell us. I'd say Betemit is a decent glove at third and first and probably a bit stretched in the middle infield although he can handle it. Betemit's a lock to be on the roster, and for good reason. He could very well be the best backup infielder in baseball.

Jose Molina
After the Wil Nieves Experience™ got to be too much, the Yankees picked up Molina mid-season from the hated Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jeff Kennard. Molina's not a good hitter, but that's why he's a backup catcher. Here are his projections for 2008, prepare to be underwhelmed.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	267	254	28	61	13	1	6	30	2	1	12	57	1	.240	.277	.370	-3	3
marcel	326	299	30	74	17	1	6	34	3	1	17	64	2	.247	.285	.371	-2	4
pecota	170	155	14	37	8	0	3	18	2	1	9	36	1	.240	.278	.346	-3	1
zips	203	194	17	47	10	0	3	23	2	0	8	44	1	.242	.276	.340	-4	1
cairo	222	203	21	49	11	0	4	24	2	0	12	43	1	.242	.281	.362	-2	2
average	238	221	22	54	12	0	4	26	2	1	12	49	1	.242	.279	.358	-3	2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	222	203	25	56	14	1	6	29	3	0	15	37	3	.276	.333	.450	7	12
65%	222	203	23	53	12	1	5	26	2	0	14	40	2	.259	.307	.406	2	7
Baseline	222	203	21	49	11	0	4	24	2	0	12	43	1	.242	.281	.362	-2	2
35%	222	203	18	46	9	0	3	21	1	1	10	47	1	.224	.254	.318	-7	-3
20%	222	203	16	42	7	0	2	19	0	1	8	50	0	.207	.228	.274	-12	-7

Pray for Jorge Posada's continued good health, although to be fair Molina's defense might make him worthy of a roster spot.

Year	Last	First	Tm	Lg	Inn	SB	CS	CS%	PBWPR	TER	FER	Tot R	R/140
2004	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	524	23	19	45%	1	1	0	6	14
2005	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	480	19	18	49%	-3	0	0	2	6
2006	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	603	27	19	41%	-5	0	-2	-4	-8
2007	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	323	18	7	28%	0	-1	0	-2	-8
2007	Molina	Jose	NYA	AL	169	13	5	28%	0	1	0	1	6
Projection	Molina	Jose	NYA	AL	428	20	14	40%	-2	0	0	-3	-8

Molina projects to be below average defensively, mainly due to a poor projection on passed balls and wild pitches. His throwing and error rate are about average. Maybe he can recover some of that 2004 defensive magic.

Although Francisco Cervelli has had a couple of promising seasons in the minors, Molina's probably got his spot on the bench locked up this year.

Morgan Ensberg
Ensberg is coming off a very disappointing season after hitting 59 HRs and walking 186 times combined over 2005 and 2006. His performance was attributed at least partially to a shoulder injury. If that was indeed the case and he is healthy now, he has a lot of upside as not just a bench player, but as a potential starting first baseman. Here's how Ensberg projects for 2008 as compared to an average 1B.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	420	356	54	86	16	1	15	46	2	2	61	82	3	.242	.357	.419	-3	8
marcel	412	346	56	87	17	1	17	54	3	3	59	81	3	.251	.362	.454	1	12
pecota	277	229	38	57	11	1	12	38	2	1	42	57	2	.249	.367	.457	2	9
zips	475	395	60	96	18	1	20	59	1	3	76	105	4	.243	.371	.446	1	14
cairo	431	363	56	93	18	1	18	58	2	3	62	77	3	.255	.366	.459	2	14
average	403	338	53	84	16	1	16	51	2	2	60	81	3	.248	.365	.447	0	12
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	431	363	63	102	22	3	22	65	3	1	70	68	5	.282	.411	.538	17	29
65%	431	363	59	97	20	2	20	62	3	2	66	73	4	.268	.388	.499	10	22
Baseline	431	363	56	93	18	1	18	58	2	3	62	77	3	.255	.366	.459	2	14
35%	431	363	52	88	16	1	16	54	1	4	58	82	2	.242	.344	.419	-6	6
20%	431	363	48	83	13	0	14	50	1	5	54	86	1	.229	.321	.379	-14	-2

Again, we don't know how healthy he is, but the projections are pretty encouraging and there is some upside here.

Also of note are Ensberg's career splits. Versus lefties he has hit .284/.406/.530 in his career over 686 PA, compared to .258/.350/.456 versus righties. Even in his down 2007 he hit .257/.345/.486 versus lefties.

Ensberg's primarily played 3B in his career, but I think he should be reasonably competent at first base because of that infield experience. Here are his career defensive numbers at 3B.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2002	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	27	43	37	328	28	76	8	5	80	110	.727	-5	-4	-16
2003	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	27	111	89	818	77	184	9	18	195	248	.786	6	5	9
2004	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	28	118	103	921	80	164	13	23	180	243	.741	-7	-6	-9
2005	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	29	148	147	1286	100	296	15	31	324	403	.804	5	4	5
2006	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	30	117	106	975	80	230	12	25	247	301	.821	11	9	13
2007	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	32	68	52	492	36	107	11	12	118	161	.733	-6	-5	-15
2007	NL	SD	3B	Morgan Ensberg	32	12	10	93	3	29	1	3	29	32	.906	4	3	53
			3B			102	91	2474	67	183	11	20	198	252	.786	2	1	1

I'd worry about how Ensberg may handle scooping throws, but other than that I think anyone that can play an average 3B should at the very least be average at 1B. Couple that with a bat that projects around average and with a tendency for lefty-mashing, and Ensberg seems like a good guy to have on the bench as well.

Shelley Duncan
The man, the myth, the legend. Duncan scuffled around the minors for most of his career until breaking through in 2007 and getting a shot at the majors as a 27 year old rookie. Duncan slammed 7 HRs in 74 MLB at bats and ended the season with a line of .257/.329/.554. Duncan's projections for 2008 aren't very good because of his lackluster performance in the minors before 2007.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	465	425	58	98	19	1	21	60	2	2	36	113	4	.231	.297	.428	-11	2
marcel	242	215	35	58	10	1	10	34	3	1	22	45	2	.270	.339	.465	0	7
pecota	460	412	51	98	19	1	21	70	3	1	39	112	4	.239	.308	.439	-7	5
zips	446	405	45	98	18	1	24	74	1	2	38	103	3	.242	.312	.469	-4	9
cairo	369	334	44	84	16	1	19	58	0	0	30	77	2	.250	.316	.477	-2	9
average	396	358	48	88	16	1	19	59	2	1	33	88	3	.246	.314	.456	-4	7
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	369	334	51	93	20	2	24	66	1	0	36	69	4	.278	.360	.560	12	23
65%	369	334	47	88	18	1	22	62	0	0	33	73	3	.264	.338	.518	5	16
Baseline	369	334	44	84	16	1	19	58	0	0	30	77	2	.250	.316	.477	-2	9
35%	369	334	41	79	14	0	17	55	0	1	28	82	2	.236	.294	.435	-9	2
20%	369	334	37	74	12	0	15	51	0	1	25	86	1	.223	.272	.393	-16	-5

I think Duncan may be better than what those numbers show because I think he made some adjustments in his game that allowed him to play like he did in 2007. I can see him as a .250/.320/.480 type hitter with HR power, and that's a damn fine bench player.

Defensively, we don't have much data on Duncan, but the scouting reports see him as a below average defender at either first base or the OF corners.

Jason Lane
Lane's a long-shot to make the roster. He's a similar player to Shelley Duncan, but 3 years older and with a couple of bad seasons in his recent past (.201/.318/.392 in 2006 and .175/.254/.345 in 2007). Despite being a righty he doesn't have a huge platoon split (.768 OPS vs RPH, .779 vs LHP). His projections for 2008, as you may imagine, are a little ugly.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	407	363	48	87	18	1	14	46	2	2	40	74	4	.240	.322	.410	-8	3
marcel	332	294	39	68	14	1	13	44	3	2	30	63	3	.231	.304	.418	-7	2
pecota	321	285	35	66	14	1	11	43	4	1	28	61	3	.232	.302	.404	-8	1
zips	434	391	46	90	20	1	15	56	2	2	38	88	5	.230	.306	.402	-11	1
cairo	342	302	39	74	16	1	13	46	2	1	32	62	3	.245	.319	.434	-4	5
average	367	327	41	77	16	1	13	47	3	2	34	69	4	.236	.311	.413	-8	2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	342	302	45	83	20	2	17	53	3	0	38	54	5	.274	.365	.518	9	18
65%	342	302	42	78	18	2	15	49	3	1	35	58	4	.259	.342	.476	2	12
Baseline	342	302	39	74	16	1	13	46	2	1	32	62	3	.245	.319	.434	-4	5
35%	342	302	36	70	14	1	11	43	1	2	29	66	2	.231	.295	.392	-11	-2
20%	342	302	33	65	12	0	9	39	1	2	26	70	1	.217	.272	.350	-18	-9

Defensively, Lane does have the ability to play CF which Duncan does not. However, he doesn't grade well defensively if you believe zone rating.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2004	NL	Hou	1B	Jason Lane	27	3	1	13	13	1	1	3	2	2	1.000	0	0	27
2006	NL	Hou	1B	Jason Lane	29	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2002	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	26	1	1	12	4	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	0	53
2003	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	26	6	2	23	2	0	0	0	2	4	.500	-1	-1	-78
2004	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	27	17	3	49	8	0	0	0	7	10	.700	-2	-1	-39
2005	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	28	6	4	37	11	0	0	0	11	13	.846	0	0	-13
2006	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	29	5	1	17	5	0	0	0	5	6	.833	0	0	-15
2007	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	31	36	27	261	80	2	0	1	77	88	.875	0	0	0
2007	NL	SD	CF	Jason Lane	31	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	137
2002	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	26	11	1	22	4	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	0	28
2003	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	26	3	1	14	3	0	0	0	3	3	1.000	0	0	33
2004	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	27	35	6	102	24	2	1	0	22	24	.917	1	1	16
2005	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	28	4	3	24	3	0	0	0	3	7	.429	-3	-3	-153
2006	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	29	6	1	23	6	0	0	0	6	6	1.000	1	1	43
2007	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	31	4	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2002	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	26	27	16	151	39	3	1	1	39	49	.796	-4	-4	-35
2003	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	26	2	0	6	2	0	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	51
2004	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	27	24	13	141	28	0	0	0	27	31	.871	0	0	1
2005	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	28	137	126	1116	225	4	6	0	203	248	.819	-13	-11	-14
2006	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	29	89	73	679	155	1	0	0	149	183	.814	-11	-9	-19
2007	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	31	18	15	128	43	0	0	0	40	47	.851	-1	-1	-13
2007	NL	SD	RF	Jason Lane	31	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	1B		32	2	0	17	7	0	0	1	1	1	1.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	CF		32	16	9	285	28	1	0	0	27	31	.859	-4	-3	-17
Projection	AL	NYY	LF		32	9	2	86	6	0	0	0	6	7	.843	-4	-4	-62
Projection	AL	NYY	RF		32	57	48	1314	98	1	1	0	91	111	.823	-6	-5	-5

I'd have a tough time building a case for Lane over Ensberg or Duncan, unless the Yankees need an OF more than they need a backup corner IF.

Nick Green
The triumphant return of a Yankee legend. Green's the prototypical utility player. He projects to be bad on offense.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	388	358	43	85	16	2	12	44	3	3	25	101	5	.237	.296	.394	-9	1
marcel	216	189	27	45	9	1	4	19	3	2	19	49	4	.238	.315	.360	-5	0
pecota	457	410	47	97	21	2	12	51	6	4	34	129	6	.237	.300	.385	-10	1
zips	370	341	36	88	17	2	11	38	3	3	25	90	4	.258	.316	.416	-4	6
cairo	265	237	30	63	11	2	7	28	2	1	18	57	4	.266	.321	.418	-2	5
average	339	306	37	76	15	2	9	35	3	3	25	83	5	.247	.310	.395	-6	3
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	265	237	35	71	14	3	10	33	3	0	22	49	6	.299	.374	.511	10	16
65%	265	237	33	67	13	3	8	31	3	1	20	53	5	.283	.348	.464	4	10
Baseline	265	237	30	63	11	2	7	28	2	1	18	57	4	.266	.321	.418	-2	5
35%	265	237	27	59	9	1	6	25	1	2	16	61	3	.249	.294	.371	-8	-1
20%	265	237	24	55	8	1	4	23	1	2	14	65	2	.232	.267	.325	-14	-7

He can play pretty much any infield position, although not necessarily all that well.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2006	AL	NYY	1B	Nick Green	27	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	194
2004	NL	Atl	2B	Nick Green	25	75	61	572	137	203	8	44	187	222	.842	4	3	8
2005	AL	TB	2B	Nick Green	26	91	83	731	141	195	4	44	186	240	.775	-11	-8	-16
2006	AL	TB	2B	Nick Green	27	4	4	32	7	8	0	3	7	9	.778	0	0	-14
2006	AL	NYY	2B	Nick Green	27	19	11	103	37	29	1	6	26	35	.743	-3	-2	-30
2007	AL	Sea	2B	Nick Green	29	2	1	8	2	2	0	1	1	1	1.000	0	0	24
2004	NL	Atl	3B	Nick Green	25	5	0	12	0	2	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	0
2005	AL	TB	3B	Nick Green	26	13	11	104	4	21	3	2	23	30	.767	0	0	-2
2006	AL	NYY	3B	Nick Green	27	17	8	80	7	18	2	4	19	27	.704	-2	-1	-25
2006	AL	TB	SS	Nick Green	27	10	7	67	10	21	0	6	22	28	.786	-1	-1	-17
2006	AL	NYY	SS	Nick Green	27	10	3	35	10	11	2	4	11	15	.733	-1	-1	-42
2007	AL	Sea	SS	Nick Green	29	3	0	6	0	2	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	65
Projection	AL	NYY	1B			1	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	2B			38	32	853	63	85	2	19	79	99	.799	-2	-2	-3
Projection	AL	NYY	3B			13	7	213	4	15	2	2	16	22	.739	-1	0	-3
Projection	AL	NYY	SS			6	3	86	5	9	0	2	9	12	.795	0	0	-8

Green is probably the best choice if the Yankees decide they want a second backup middle infielder, although if they carry 12 pitchers that may make it tough to squeeze him on.

Chris Woodward
Take Nick Green and make him worse and make him a few years older and you have Chris Woodward.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	242	222	23	52	11	1	3	22	1	1	19	51	1	.234	.298	.333	-9	-3
marcel	301	268	32	64	13	1	5	29	2	1	24	61	2	.239	.299	.351	-10	-2
pecota	84	75	8	18	4	0	1	8	1	0	7	17	1	.240	.310	.333	-3	0
zips	179	165	18	37	8	1	2	16	1	0	13	40	1	.224	.285	.321	-8	-3
cairo	238	212	23	49	10	1	3	22	1	0	18	48	1	.231	.286	.330	-10	-4
average	209	188	21	44	9	1	3	19	1	0	16	43	1	.234	.295	.334	-8	-2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	238	212	28	56	13	2	5	27	2	0	22	41	2	.264	.337	.412	0	6
65%	238	212	25	53	12	2	4	24	2	0	20	45	2	.248	.311	.371	-5	1
Baseline	238	212	23	49	10	1	3	22	1	0	18	48	1	.231	.286	.330	-10	-4
35%	238	212	21	46	8	1	2	20	1	0	16	51	1	.215	.260	.289	-14	-8
20%	238	212	18	42	7	0	1	17	0	0	14	55	0	.198	.234	.248	-19	-13

Woodward has seen some spot duty in the OF which could theoretically give him an edge on Green.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2002	AL	Tor	1B	Chris Woodward	26	3	1	10	9	0	0	1	2	2	1.000	0	0	37
2005	NL	NYM	1B	Chris Woodward	29	34	21	199	206	10	2	16	30	33	.909	1	1	7
2006	NL	NYM	1B	Chris Woodward	30	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2007	NL	Atl	1B	Chris Woodward	31	6	4	35	28	1	1	3	7	8	.875	0	0	6
2002	AL	Tor	2B	Chris Woodward	26	6	3	26	8	14	2	4	11	13	.846	0	0	6
2005	NL	NYM	2B	Chris Woodward	29	5	3	30	4	7	2	1	7	10	.700	-1	-1	-41
2006	NL	NYM	2B	Chris Woodward	30	39	33	292	72	93	4	20	76	91	.835	2	1	7
2007	NL	Atl	2B	Chris Woodward	31	11	6	54	12	16	0	4	15	23	.652	-4	-3	-70
2002	AL	Tor	3B	Chris Woodward	26	2	1	9	2	3	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	1	121
2005	NL	NYM	3B	Chris Woodward	29	6	2	25	1	11	0	0	12	13	.923	2	1	79
2006	NL	NYM	3B	Chris Woodward	30	11	6	66	3	17	0	2	16	16	1.000	3	3	60
2007	NL	Atl	3B	Chris Woodward	31	24	6	100	5	16	3	2	13	16	.813	1	1	7
2002	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	26	79	77	678	134	231	13	64	208	240	.867	4	3	7
2003	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	27	103	98	871	161	300	17	69	279	335	.833	-3	-3	-4
2004	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	28	64	60	515	87	171	5	42	163	195	.836	-1	0	-1
2005	NL	NYM	SS	Chris Woodward	29	7	3	33	5	7	1	1	6	7	.857	0	0	3
2006	NL	NYM	SS	Chris Woodward	30	13	11	97	13	33	1	10	29	35	.829	0	0	-2
2007	NL	Atl	SS	Chris Woodward	31	13	5	67	7	20	2	5	17	20	.850	0	0	7
Projection	AL	NYY	1B			11	7	192	63	3	1	5	10	11	.901	0	0	2
Projection	AL	NYY	2B			18	14	362	29	38	2	8	32	40	.788	-1	-1	-4
Projection	AL	NYY	3B			14	5	196	3	14	1	1	13	15	.905	2	2	12
Projection	AL	NYY	SS			31	26	712	40	79	4	20	73	87	.839	0	0	0

Woodward brings a slightly better glove than Green it would appear, but a worse bat. He's probably not a good bet to make the team although I have a hunch he could sneak his way on with a hot spring.

Brett Gardner
Gardner's a long shot to start the season in the Bronx. He's shown pretty good OBP skills in the minors and he's supposed to be top of the scouting scale fast, but he has no power at all which is not a good sign for his major league future.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	469	427	55	108	18	4	2	43	35	9	40	91	2	.253	.320	.328	-13	-1
marcel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0
pecota	483	428	58	102	17	4	3	31	25	7	44	100	3	.238	.308	.318	-18	-5
zips	468	417	73	112	15	4	1	27	28	9	49	87	2	.269	.348	.331	-10	2
cairo	325	292	46	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.326	.342	-9	-1
average	349	313	43	79	12	3	2	25	19	5	33	68	2	.253	.326	.330	-10	-1
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	325	292	53	83	14	5	5	28	12	1	35	53	3	.283	.374	.413	3	11
65%	325	292	50	78	13	4	4	25	11	2	33	57	3	.268	.350	.378	-3	5
Baseline	325	292	46	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.326	.342	-9	-1
35%	325	292	43	70	9	2	2	21	8	4	27	65	1	.239	.302	.307	-16	-7
20%	325	292	39	65	8	1	1	18	6	5	25	69	1	.224	.278	.272	-22	-13

Gardner's defense is apparently not as good as it should be with his speed because of some questionable reads, but I think he's still likely to be a plus defender.

Conclusion
We can probably assume the Yankees start the season with this lineup:

LF - Damon
SS - Jeter
RF - Abreu
3B - Rodriguez
1B - Giambi
C - Posada
DH - Matsui
2B - Cano
CF - Cabrera

We can probably also safely assume that they'll start the season with a 12 man pitching staff, which leaves four roster spots for the bench. Betemit and Molina are locks. I think Ensberg is pretty close to a lock as well, which leaves one spot for Jason Lane or Shelley Duncan or Nick Green or Chris Woodward. Duncan gives them the better bat, although Green and Woodward give them more infield flexibility. Lane is probably the best OF backup defensively since he can play CF, but he seems like the odd man out. If it was me I'd go with Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. Any situation that would require Green or Duncan could be handled without them. If you lose Alex Rodriguez, Ensberg or Betemit can play third. If you lose one of Jeter or Cano, Betemit can cover them. If you lose both Jeter and Cano, Betemit slides to second, Rodriguez to short, and Ensberg to third. If it's a long-term issue the Yankees would have Alberto Gonzalez available to backup around the IF.

The Yankees have similar OF flexibility with Damon as the backup CF, Matsui as the backup corner OF and emergency CF, and Duncan as a fifth OF who can cover the corners in a pinch.

I suppose a pinch runner for Giambi or Posada would be nice, but is that worth a roster spot? If it is I could see Gardner or Justin Christian sneaking on.

I'll take a look at what the Yankee position players add up to as far as runs and wins in my next entry and then it's on to the pitching.

So, like I said, my bench would be Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. There's a possibility Hideki Matsui may start the year on the DL which would open up another spot, but let's assume that's not the case for now. If you could take four players for the Yankee bench, who would they be?

--Posted at 8:46 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (698)

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Sunday, November 18, 2007

CAIRO vs. CHONE - 2008 Yankees edition

While we all wait breathlessly for Mariano Rivera to sign his contract, I noticed that Sean Smith posted his CHONE hitter projections over at his blog. I'm still messing around with my own CAIRO projections so I thought it'd be a good exercise for me to compare what the two say for the Yankees since it now appears the offense is basically set for 2008.

And here's what that looks like:

				CAIRO					CHONE
Starters	POS	PA		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Johnny Damon	LF	600		.286	.357	.438	83		.275	.351	.413	78
Derek Jeter	SS	600		.318	.388	.463	92		.299	.373	.433	84
Bobby Abreu	RF	600		.284	.392	.461	94		.268	.375	.422	84
Alex Rodriguez	3B	600		.300	.402	.569	112		.303	.420	.588	117
Hideki Matsui	DH	600		.291	.370	.489	92		.282	.365	.473	88
Jorge Posada	C	600		.293	.392	.499	98		.285	.389	.475	93
Robinson Cano	2B	600		.312	.347	.489	87		.305	.347	.479	86
Wilson Betemit	1B	400		.265	.338	.443	52		.254	.329	.438	51
Melky Cabrera	CF	600		.281	.341	.403	72		.278	.342	.397	72
Starters Total		5200		.293	.371	.474	783		.284	.367	.457	754
Bench	POS	PA		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Jason Giambi	DH	350		.256	.399	.499	57		.246	.392	.474	55
Shelley Duncan	1B	325		.257	.322	.480	44		.235	.301	.452	40
Jose Molina	C	225		.250	.287	.375	22		.241	.281	.360	20
Alberto Gonzalez	SS	175		.250	.300	.351	16		.247	.295	.335	15
Bronson Sardinha	RF	150		.230	.293	.376	15		.240	.305	.388	16
Brett Gardner	CF	100		.262	.333	.357	11		.253	.320	.328	10
Bench Total		1325		.251	.331	.427	166		.243	.323	.408	157
				AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Team Total		6525		.284	.363	.464	949		.276	.358	.447	911

BR is batting runs using linear weights. I used the same amount of projected playing time for every single player and assumed 6525 plate appearances (last year's team had about 6550). I also factored in about 20% bench playing time.

What this data shows is that CAIRO is a lot more optimistic than CHONE, to the tune of a 38 run overall difference. My guess is that Sean is using a harsher aging factor than I am or regressing more towards the mean, or perhaps a combination of the two. The difference isn't huge on a player by player basis, but it's fairly significant overall.

Dan Szymborski's ZiPS for the Yankees are up too but since he doesn't have them in a spreadsheet yet I didn't look at how CAIRO compares yet. I'd guess ZiPS will be harsher than CHONE, but I feel pretty comfortable that the Yankees will score 900+ runs next season.

I've also updated the RLYW Lineup Toy with the CHONE projection data.

My posting may be sporadic over the next week or so as I'm heading on vacation but hopefully someone will fill in.

--Posted at 8:28 pm by SG / 63 Comments | - (1415)

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Tuesday, October 9, 2007

2007 ALDS: Yankee Run Values

Player	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BRAA	DRAA	TRAA
R Cano	16	.333	.375	.800	1.175	1	0	1
S Duncan	4	.500	.500	.500	1.000	0	0	0
A Rodriguez	17	.267	.353	.467	.820	0	0	0
M Cabrera	16	.188	.188	.375	.563	-1	1	0
B Sardinha	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0
J Damon	19	.278	.316	.611	.927	1	-1	0
H Matsui	16	.182	.438	.182	.620	0	0	0
J Giambi	4	.250	.250	.250	.500	0	0	0
D Mientkiewicz	8	.000	.143	.000	.143	-1	0	-1
J Posada	17	.133	.235	.200	.435	-2	0	-2
B Abreu	17	.267	.353	.533	.886	1	-4	-3
D Jeter	17	.176	.176	.176	.352	-2	-1	-3

BRAA: Batting runs above average by linear weights
DRAA: Defensive runs saved above average by linear weights
TRAA: BRAA + DRAA

Player	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	RSAA
A Pettitte	6.3	7	0	2	5	0.00	0.00	3
M Rivera	4.7	2	0	1	6	0.00	0.00	3
P Hughes	5.7	3	1	0	6	1.59	1.59	2
K Farnsworth	1.0	1	0	0	2	0.00	0.00	1
M Mussina	4.7	4	0	4	3	3.86	3.86	1
J Veras	0.7	1	0	1	1	0.00	0.00	0
R Villone	0.3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0
J Chamberlain	3.7	3	0	3	4	4.91	4.91	0
L Vizcaino	0.7	2	0	2	0	13.50	13.50	-1
R Clemens	2.3	4	1	2	1	11.57	11.57	-2
R Ohlendorf	1.0	4	1	1	0	27.00	27.00	-2
C Wang	5.7	14	3	4	2	19.06	19.06	-9

RSAA: Runs saved above average

Player	TRAA
A Pettitte	3
M Rivera	3
P Hughes	2
R Cano	1
K Farnsworth	1
M Mussina	1
J Veras	0
S Duncan	0
A Rodriguez	0
R Villone	0
M Cabrera	0
B Sardinha	0
J Chamberlain	0
J Damon	0
H Matsui	0
J Giambi	0
L Vizcaino	-1
D Mientkiewicz	-1
J Posada	-2
R Clemens	-2
R Ohlendorf	-2
B Abreu	-3
D Jeter	-3
C Wang	-9
Total	-13

TRAA: TRAA/RSAA

--Posted at 7:59 am by SG / 120 Comments | - (1529)

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Thursday, September 27, 2007

Picking the 2007 Postseason Roster

Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs, I can finally talk about the postseason roster.  With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster.  Here’s a look at the candidates, with the players on the bubble separated out.

Starting Pitchers(4)
Andy Pettitte
Roger Clemens
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina

Relief Pitchers(5)
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
Kyle Farnsworth
Luis Vizcaino

On the Bubble
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Tyler Clippard
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Sean Henn
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Ian Kennedy
Ross Ohlendorf
Edwar Ramirez

Catchers(2)
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada

Infielders(5)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Doug Mientkiewicz
Alex Rodriguez
Wilson Betemit

On the Bubble
Alberto Gonzalez

Outfielders (5)
Bobby Abreu
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Shelley Duncan
Hideki Matsui

On the Bubble
Bronson Sardinha

Designated Hitters(1)
Jason Giambi

There are 22 players I consider locks to make the roster, four starting pitchers, five relievers, two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders, and one DH.  That gives the Yanks three slots to fill.  If it were up to me, I’d take two more pitchers and one position player. 

The position player seems like an easy choice to me, if choosing between Alberto Gonzalez or Bronson Sardinha I’d take the more valuable defensive player.  Either can pinch-run, but Gonzalez gives the Yankees a little more depth in case of multiple injuries to their starting infielders.

The pitching situation is a little less clear-cut.  Phil Hughes slots in as a long reliever, but the rest of the choices are mainly short relievers and that’s a concern with a gimpy Roger Clemens and Mike “Box of Chocolates” Mussina taking two starts.  Because of this, one of the extra relievers should probably be someone who can pitch multiple innings.  Out of the players on the bubble, the best choices for that kind of role in my mind are Kei Igawa or Ron Villone.  Neither inspires much confidence, but we have to remember that you don’t have to win every single game in the playoffs, you just have to win 3 or 4 before your opponent does.  If Clemens can’t go past the second inning, odds are the game is lost but you don’t want to have to burn out your bullpen either.  The off days built into the schedule mitigate that to some degree.  The other thing the Yankees should do is break up Pettitte and Wang.  Since they’ll be starting on the road, I’d start Pettitte in game one, Clemens in game two, and Wang in game three at home.  However, to be safe I think the Yankees should take Igawa.  I know he hasn’t been good this year, but he could come into a game in the early innings and pitch 5 or 6 innings and put the Yankees in a position to win the next game.  Now all the readers can proceed to tell me I’m insane.

That leaves one other pitcher to take.  Ian Kennedy’s hurt so scratch him.  Realistically it comes down to taking one of Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Villone, Ross Ohlendorf or Edwar Ramirez.

Britton - had success in the AL East last year and did well in AAA this season.  For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to be well-regarded by the organization right now, and his stuff isn’t really that great for a short reliever.

Bruney - You know the deal with this guy.  Great fastball, horrendous command.

Veras - See Bruney, although with a slightly better breaking pitch.  I swear I have not seen Veras hit the catcher’s target on a single pitch yet this season.

Villone - Chock full of veterany-goodness.  Hasn’t been horrible this year, but his control scares the hell out of me and he has a very high likelihood to implode in any given outing.

Ohlendorf - He’s looked pretty good so far in the majors, but it’s only been three innings.  He’s got good stuff but his minor league numbers are pretty bad, but he was injured for much of the year and converted from a starter to a reliever so that should be considered.

Ramirez - I was pulling like hell for Edwar to come up the majors and succeed, but he still needs to work on his approach IMO.  Until he can consistently get ahead in the count and make optimal use of his killer changeup, I wouldn’t have any faith in him in a tight spot.  He does have strikeout ability (29 Ks in 19.3 innings), but he also has giving up HR ability (6 in 19.3 innings).  He’s probably pitched himself off the postseason roster at this point.

Not a very inspiring bunch.  I’d imagine we’ll get a healthy dose of all of these guys over the last four games of the year to see if one becomes a hot hand.  I find Ohlendorf the most intriguing of this group, so he’d probably be my pick.

I’d like to see what other people would do instead of me, so let’s hear it…

--Posted at 8:08 am by SG / 67 Comments | - (1723)

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Saturday, August 18, 2007

Lineup Permutations

With Jason Giambi back in the fold, the Yankees have a problem now. It's not a bad problem, because having more talent than you have spots for is a good thing. The key will be using the talent on hand in the way that is most likely to help you win games.

This is not as clear-cut as the numbers that will follow may make it seem, because you're dealing with egos, over/under performances, possible injuries and fatigue, and many other factors(base clogging, chemistry of the lineup,etc.,). However, since I don't have any way to quantify any of that, I'm just going to look at the data that is available to me and see how the different options shake out.

For offense, I'm using a runs created formula that multiplies OBP times SLG times .92. This is then multiplied by 4.4 PA per player, which is the average PA per game for the Yankees's lineup. This doesn't consider lineup order. OBP and SLG are 2/3 based on the players' projections coming into 2007 and 1/3 based on their YTD performance. For Shelley Duncan I've included his MLEs so his stats aren't skewed by his small sample size MLB performance to this point. Since no one projected Duncan coming into the season, here's the projection I used for him:

Year	Team	Last	First	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
2005	Trenton	Duncan	Shelley	142	521	76	113	23	1	27	71	43	147	.216	.277	.422
2006	Tre-Col	Duncan	Shelley	104	384	43	88	21	0	18	51	31	91	.230	.287	.426
2007	Scranton	Duncan	Shelley	91	325	53	88	17	1	23	66	38	88	.271	.350	.537
2007	Yankees	Duncan	Shelley	17	42	9	13	0	0	6	13	5	12	.310	.383	.738
	Projection			109	416	59	106	26	1	25	67	43	109	.255	.325	.501

I just figured out my own versions of Duncan's MLEs (major league equivalencies) then weighed each season to get a .325 OBP and .501 SLG, which doesn't seem out of line.

For defense, I'm using a combination of career defense as rated by zone rating combined with YTD 2007 performance as far as runs saved per game. For players with small sample size I made some assumptions based on scouting reports and my visual observations. I realize this turns what is supposed to be an objective exercise into a somewhat subjective one, but I think that the logic I used here is at least somewhat sound.

So the numbers that follow are the overall runs created on offense and the runs saved above/below average on defense for a single game. Multiply by 162 if you want to see how that translates to a full season.

Let's first look at the lineup that had become the basic lineup of choice prior to Giambi's return.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Phillips	.537	.037
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Damon	.620	.000
	Off	5.469	-.015
	Over 162	886	-2
	Per Game	5.454

We'd expect this lineup to score 5.469 runs per game using the runs created formula I'm using assuming 40 plate appearances per game. We'd expect them to be .015 runs below average defensively per game. So net, offense plus defense this lineup is worth 5.454 runs per games. Over a full season, we'd expect them to score around 886 runs and be around 2 runs above average on defense. Bear in mind that Melky's projection coming into the year was a little a low and that his YTD performance would be worth .684 RC for ever 4.4 plate appearances. If we swap that out with his .575 combined projection you get an extra 17 runs over a full season. However, as much as I'd like to that, that's not objective analysis, so the projection stays as is with the understanding that it's possibly not indicative of a likely change in Melky's talent level (or a decline by Damon which makes him worse than projected).

So, let's look at a few other combinations.

First up, let's just swap out Damon for Giambi.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Phillips	.537	.037
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.668	-.015
	Over 162	918	-2
	Total	5.653

No impact on the defense obviously, but over a full season it'd be about a 30 run upgrade on offense.

How about Damon at first and Giambi at DH? To make this work I assumed that Damon would be a slightly below average defensive 1B, but not too bad of one. I have no idea if that's a reasonable assumption or not.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Damon	.620	-.006
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.751	-.059
	Over 162	932	-10
	Total	5.692

It's too bad this isn't a realistic option, because it's better than the first two. Unfortunately, it likely isn't or we'd have seen it already.

We also have to consider Wilson Betemit and Shelley Duncan in the mix. How about Duncan at first and Giambi at DH?

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Duncan	.659	-.059
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Damon	.620	-.003
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.668	-.052
	Over 162	918	-8
	Total	5.616

We don't have enough data to have a good read on Duncan's defense at first although the consensus is it's not good, so I gave him a rating equivalent to a -10 over a full season.

Another option is, Betemit at first, Giambi still at DH.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Betemit	.612	-.006
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.743	-.059
	Over 162	930	-10
	Total	5.684

We have a winner. According to these numbers, this is the best combination the Yankees can run out there if Damon at first is not an option, at least against righties. The nice thing is that since Betemit doesn't hit lefties they could use Duncan against lefties. I'd also assume that Betemit is a better defender at first base than Duncan, although without enough data to know I made him touch below average for this exercise.

The Yankees can also use Duncan in the OF corners although he's supposedly going to be pretty bad out there.

The best defensive team is probably the one below.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Phillips	.537	.037
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Damon	.620	-.003
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.547	.044
	Over 162	899	7
	Total	5.591

For all the crap Andy Phillips has been getting lately, offense plus defense he's not really that big of a problem.

There are way too many potential combinations for me to run through in this space, so I've uploaded the spreadsheet that I used for this if you want to play around with it yourselves. Just select a player's name and you'll get a pulldown which lets you change the player and their values will fill in automatically.

There are 39 games left in the season. I'd try to use the Duncan/Betemit platoon at first in at least half of them. I'd use Damon to rest Melky, Abreu, and Matsui once a week, and I'd save Andy Phillips for late inning defense. The nice thing about the current Yankee bench is they can rest almost anyone on the team without losing a ton of value. It seems to me that the main thing the Yankees have to avoid is starting Phillips at first base on the same day they start Damon at DH. If they avoid that, they'll be putting a pretty strong lineup out there no matter what combination they use. Except for House Money day of course.

--Posted at 8:07 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (970)

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