Monday, September 29, 2008

Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Offense Edition)

Coming into this season, the Yankees looked to be a contender for best team in baseball. Although they were taking a calculated risk in relying on some very young pitchers, they were returning the bulk of a team that has scored 968 runs last year.  Even with expected declines in their older players, they still projected to have the best offense in baseball.

When I ran the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, they were the best team in the AL in most of the projection systems I used.  When I looked at the position players and the pitching staff I arrived at the same basic conclusion, the the Yankees should have won somewhere between 93-97 games.

As we all know, things didn’t work out that way.  The question I want to look at is why?  Were the projections wrong?  Was it injuries?  Was it a lack of testicular fortitude?  Let’s see if we can figure it out.

The projections I’ll be referencing here are the composite projections of several different systems, as detailed in this February blog entry.  I’m going to go through position by position looking at the projected starters compared to what the actual primary starters ended up doing, then looking at the bench as a unit. 

One other thing, while offense in the AL was down for most of this year compared to last year, the difference has narrowed signficantly of late to the point that it’s probably no longer statistically significant. The league average line of .268/.336/.420 equates to a BR/650 of 80 this season compared last year’s line of .271/.338/.423 which equates to a BR/650 of 81.  The BR(batting runs) I’ll be using here are context-neutral raw batting runs using linear weights, not position-adjusted or adjusted for base-out states. 

Catcher
Coming off his career year in 2007, Jorge Posada was projected to give back a fair amount of value in 2008.  Posada was projected to hit .286/.380/.469, a performance that would have been worth 76 batting runs according to linear weights using my assumed 500 plate appearances. 

Posada went down to a shoulder injury after just 195 PA, which made Jose Molina (Molino for the regulars) the primary starter.  While Molino had a strong defensive season, he hit like crap.  Molina hit .216/.263/.313 over 297 PA, which was worth 21 batting runs.  The difference between Posada’s projection and Molina’s actual performance as the primary starter was 55 runs, which was a 5.5 win underperformance.  BTW, disparities in playing time at all the positions will be accounted for when we get to the bench.

First Base
Another risk the Yankees took entering 2008 was that Jason Giambi would be able to
-Out-produce a disastrous 2007
-Play passable defense at first base
-Stay healthy all season

If you had asked me the likelihood of all three of those things happening, I’d have put it around the same likelihood as Mike Mussina winning 20 games. 

Giambi managed to achieve all three things for the most part.  His glove was bad, but not horrifically bad, and he was productive and healthy for most of the year, although 45% of his production came in the 45 games from April 22 - Jun 17 where he hit .319/.441/.694 (40 BR).  Over the other 100 games he played, he hit .213/.342/.414 (48 BR).  I don’t know if this type of split is particularly meaningful, so consider it just a random factoid.

The 2008 projections for Giambi weren’t bad on a rate basis (.245/.387/.474) but his playing time projections were pretty pessimistic (300 PA).  He projected to be worth about 46 batting runs because of that.  Instead, Giambi hit for a little more power but a little less OBP (.247/.373/.502), but thanks to exceeding his playing time projections he was far more valuable than he projected to be, exceeding his projected batting runs by 42 runs, a 4.2 win offensive upgrade.  The 2008 Yankees’ underperformance from their pre-season projections can’t be laid at Giambi’s feet.

Second Base
Pass.

Well, I wish I could pass anyway.  Robinson Cano seemed to be on the cusp of becoming the best 2B in the AL.  Cano projected to hit .308/.348/.482 and play plus defense and was at an age where he could still realistically be expected to improve.  Cano’s projected offense over 585 plate appearances would have made him worth 84 batting runs. Instead, Cano digressed in just about every facet of his game, hitting .271/.305/.410 over 634 PA, which was only worth 68 BR.  This was a downgrade of 1.6 wins.

Third Base
Boo.

Alex Rodriguez was justifiably the AL’s MVP in 2007.  He was rightfully expected to regress somewhat in 2008, projected to hit .300/.406/.574 over 650 PA, which would have been worth 123 batting runs.  On a rate basis, he basically hit his projection, but thanks to a leg injury that cost him 56 PA compared to his projection, he was 14 runs less valuable than projected, a downgrade of 1.4 wins.  It’s also a fact that Rodriguez’s performance in more crucial plate appearances were less productive than his context-neutral numbers show. This was not a problem exclusive to Rodriguez, so I’ll devote a section to that as well.

Shortstop
Derek Jeter came into 2008 projected to hit .307/.379/.438 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 86 BR.  A late hot streak pushed him closer to his projections as he ended the season at .300/.363/.408 over 668 PA, a total of 82 BR.  He was less valuable than projected on a rate basis, but by exceeding his projected playing time his overall value was only about four runs less than projected.

Left Field
Johnny Damon was shifted to LF due to his defensive decline, the seeming emergence of Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui’s bad knees.  This looked like a disaster in the making coming off a poor offensive 2007, although it did also seem like a defensive upgrade.  Damon projected to hit .280/.353/.423 over 585 PA, a line that would have been worth 78 batting runs.  He blew that away by hitting .303/.375/.461 over 623 PA.  So like first base, left field ended up as a net gain on the pre-season projections, to the tune of 15 runs, or 1.5 wins.

Center Field
After a promising rookie season, Melky Cabrera declined in 2007.  The projections expected him to bounce back, thanks in part to his youth.  Melky was projected to hit .282/.344/.406 over 550 PA for a total of 68 BR.  Instead, he got even worse, hitting .249/.301/.341 over 453 PA before mercifully being demoted to Scranton.  Cabrera’s line was a downgrade of 27 BR, or 2.7 wins.  And that’s all I have to say about that.

Right Field
Bobby Abreu came into 2008 projected to hit .277/.383/.439 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 89 BR.  He exceeded that by hitting .296/.371/.471 over 684 PA, worth a total of 101 BR.  Luckily for Abreu, we’re ignoring defense for now, and this was an offensive upgrade of 12 runs or 1.2 wins.

Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui was penciled in as the primary DH coming into 2008 and his projection was pretty good, .287/.367/.477 over 500 PA, equivalent to around 74 BR.  Unfortunately, after a hot start to the season, Matsui’s knees gave out on him and he missed a significant part of the season and when he managed to come back was very unproductive, ending 2008 with a line of .294/.370/.424 over 378 PA for a total of 50 BR.  That’s a 24 run/2.4 win falloff.

So just looking at the starting nine, we see that the Yankees projected to hit .289/.372/.465 over 4870 PA, which would have been worth 724 BR.  Instead, the starting nine hit .280/.352/.443 over 4896 PA, for a total of 653 BR.  That’s a 71 run drop off or 7.1 win drop off.

The Bench
Projecting the bench is usually tricky, but at least on paper the Yankee bench looked to be serviceable this year, with Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Jose Molina, Shelley Duncan, Brett Gardner, Alberto Gonzalez, Nick Green, Jason Lane and Chris Woodward the likely candidates to see playing time.  I had the bench projected to hit .247/.319/.404 over 1811 PA, which would have been worth 209 BR.  Instead, the collection of Betemit, Ensberg, Posada,  Duncan, Gardner, Gonzalez, Justin Christian, Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, Chad Moeller, Xavier Nady, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Chris Stewart and Cody Ransom hit over .244/.306/.380 over 1339 PA for a total of 140 BR. That’s a 69 run underperformance.

Clutchness
Regular watchers of the 2008 Yankees as well as regular readers of this blog also know from a variety of different methods that the Yankees underperformed with runners on base.  Using the method I like best (Fangraph’s batting runs above average based on run expectancy), here’s a look at how the Yankees’ players context neutral batting runs compared to their contextualized batting runs in 2008.

Overall, the difference was small, but I think we can all pick out several games where the Yankees failure to come up with hits in big spots cost them wins.

cnBRAA: context-neutral batting runs above average.
cxtBRAA: contextualized batting runs above average.
Diff: cxtBRAA - cnBRAA.

I don’t know how good or bad the team baserunning has been aside from stolen bases, which are already included in the batting runs above, so we’ll assume they were average.

Let’s roll all that up.

So we had a team that was supposed to score 933 runs or so.  Their starting nine created 71 fewer runs than expected, and their bench created 69 fewer than expected, for a total shortfall of around 141 runs.  Subract another three runs for unclutchness.

933 run projection - 141 actual underperformance - 3 clutchness = 789.

How many runs did the 2008 Yankees score?  789. That’s creepy, huh?

If you were to rate the biggest reasons for the Yankees’ offensive underperformance, it’d be:
1) Losing Jorge Posada (55 runs)
2) Melky Cabrera sucking ass (27 runs)
3) Hideki Matsui’s knee causing him to both miss time and to underperform when he returned (24 runs)
4) Robinson Cano becoming Wayne Tolleson (16 runs)

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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy

My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me.  Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral.  Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced.  The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it. 

BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.

What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores.  Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.

Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.

Here’s the offense.

Here are the starting pitchers.

Here are the relievers.

And here’s everyone.

These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that.  Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.

C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6

So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated).  Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.

These numbers are against average, not replacement level.  Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.

This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA.  An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.

Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.

And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.

And the bottom 25.

Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.

--Posted at 12:08 pm by SG / 23 Comments | - (357)

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Monday, September 15, 2008

Putting Linear Weights in Context

As most of the readers here are probably aware, my favorite method for evaluating offensive performance is using batting runs as calculated by linear weights.  Linear weights are flexible, thorough, and can be easily manipulated to compare players to average players, replacement-level players, and players who play the same position.

The key to linear weights is understanding that every positive or negative outcome has a commensurate run value.  Since runs are the key to winning baseball games, linear weights gives us what I think is the bulk of the information we need to look at why teams score or don’t score, which then tells us why they win or lose.

However, this year, the Yankees have exposed some of the flaws in using a context-neutral statistic like linear weights when looking back at past performance.  The normal linear weights formula assume that every single is worth a certain amount, every double is worth a certain amount, every out is worth a certain amount, etc., However, we all know this isn’t really true in real life. A single with runners on second and third is worth more than a single with the bases empty, but in the normal linear weights formula, they’re treated equally.

That’s fine if you are trying to assess the skill level of players, but it’s not quite as useful when looking back at results retroactively.  I messed around with the Hardball Times’s version of clutch as defined by Bill James but reader feedback and some more thinking led me to realize that it’s fairly limited.  So then I looked at some situational splits using wOBA which I liked better, but that’s more of a rate stat and less useful when trying to look at what it means as far as runs.

I am still morally opposed to WPA because I think it’s far too timing and teammate dependent.

Thankfully, there’s a way to make linear weights more useful in retroactive analysis by contextualizing them.  To do this, I’m going to use the information from this study by Tango Tiger called linear weights by men on base.  The subject here is coincidentally enough how linear weights value differ based on the different baserunner states.  You could take this out to a more precise extreme by factoring in the out states but I think that’s a lot of extra work for very little additional payoff.

So what I did is use the matrix from the article linked above and split out every hitter’s performances in the eight different baserunner states.

-No one on
-Runner on first
-Runner on second
-Runner on third
-Runners on first and second
-Runners on first and third
-Runners on second and third
-Bases loaded

If you look at the chart in the linked article, you can see for example that a single with no one on base is worth .29 runs, and a single with the bases loaded is worth 1.38 runs.  So I ran the splits for each of the eight situations above for 2008, and calculated the batting runs per out for each of the eight splits for each player as well as for the average player. Then players are compared to the average player in each splits and their batting runs above average for each of the eight splits are added to get their contextual linear weights value.  This is compared to their context-neutral linear weights to get a difference.  The bigger the difference, the more productive a player in situations with runners on base.  I’m going to use comparisons to average here instead of comparisons to replacement level, and I’m not position-adjusting for now. 

One other thing I like about this is it accounts for the fact that strikeouts are more damaging in certain situations.  With none on, a strikeout is no worse than any other out (-0.2 runs).  Put a runner on third though, and a strikeout is worth -0.48 runs compared to -0.29 for other types of outs.

One issue I have with this data is the data source I’m using (David Pinto’s Day by Day Splits Database) does not differentiate performance for players who’ve played on multiple teams, so I am going to exclude people like Xavier Nady and Richie Sexson in this initial run through, although I can modify my start and end dates to include just their Yankee tenure later on.

So, without further ado, here’s what this measure says for the players who have only seen MLB time with the Yankees this year.

None on: Batting runs above average with no one one base.
1—: Batting runs above average with a runner on first.
-2-: Batting runs above average with a runner on second.
—3: Batting runs above average with a runner on third.
12-: Batting runs above average with runners on first and second.
1-3: Batting runs above average with runners on first and third.
-23: Batting runs above average with runners on second third.
123: Batting runs above average with the bases loaded.
cTotal: contextual linear weights total (all 8 of the above added together)
cnTotal: context-neutral linear weights batting runs above average.
Diff: cTotal - cnTotal

A positive difference between cTotal and cnTotal indicates a player was more productive with runners on base.  Alex Rodriguez has been less productive with runners on base this year, and that’s indisputable. However, he’s still been the most valuable offensive player on the Yankees.  His critics will ignore that and cherry-pick the numbers that “prove” their point, but they’re wrong. 

Bobby Abreu has been more productive this season than his raw numbers show. His defense still stinks though.

Jason Giambi’s hit poorly with runners in scoring position, but he’s done well with runners on first and overall he’s not been as bad with runners on as his RISP numbers make him look.

Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Derek Jeter haven’t been much different with runners on vs. not.

Jose Molina, Melky Cabrera, and Robinson Cano have been equal opportunity suckers for the most part, although Cano’s actually been about five runs worse than his context-neutral numbers show.

Just looking at this set of Yanks, we can see that they’ve fallen around 19 runs worse than they should have so far this season given their actual YTD performance and how it’s translated to runs in linear weights.  Their context-neutral linear weights runs above average are 44.5, but when you contextualize it they drop to 25 runs above average.

In actuality the Yankees have been only 8 runs better than average, so we still have to account for 17 runs.  If we add in Pudge Rodriguez (-6), Alberto Gonzalez (-7), and Xavier Nady (+5), that’s another -8.  So we still have nine or so missing runs, which could just be double plays and/or baserunning issues, or a limitation in this model.

Bear in mind, this is above and beyond their actual underperformance compared to their pre-season projections, particularly for Cano and Cabrera.

The other thing this may be useful for is MVP balloting, if I had a vote.  Which I don’t.  Here’s a look at the MLB leaders in contextual linear weights.

Remember that this is strictly offense and not position-adjusted.  Albert Pujols is just a monster.  What’s interesting is the gap between him and Lance Berkman narrows if we contextualize it, although Pujols is still having the better season and this ignores Pujols’s significant defensive edge.

Manny and Teixeira’s numbers are spread across leagues, so they’re not realistic MVP candidates.

The name that pops out to me here is Justin Morneau.  His raw stats make him look like a bad MVP candidate, but a lot of intelligent Twins fans insist he’s the Twins’ MVP, and if you look at the shape of his production it makes sense.  He’s a barely average performer with no one base, but get runners on and he’s above average in just about every split.  He’s neck and neck with Kevin Youkilis, who had a slight edge defensively last I checked.

As with other methods I’ve mentioned or read about, I don’t necessarily think this is an ideal way to look at the issue of clutch either, but it may add something to the discussion.

--Posted at 2:05 pm by SG / 64 Comments | - (474)

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Situational wOBA Splits

I've been thinking more about the whole concept of clutch and after a little more thought I've realized that the clutch stat that I referenced in this post is somewhat limited, given sample size and other issues. That hasn't stopped people from linking to that post to 'prove' their point that A-Rod is unclutch, but whatever.

Anyway, since that statistic focuses on just batting average with RISP and HRs with runners on base, it's missing important information, like walks and non HR XBH. So I've calculated wOBA (weighted on Base Average) in six areas. wOBA is the rate version of linear weights and is far more reflective of a player's offensive contribution than batting average or OPS.

The six areas I'm looking at are:

Total (all situations)
Men On
Runners in scoring position
Trailing
Tied
Leading

I realize this doesn't encompass everything that we'd consider under the umbrella of clutch, but it's got at least some key areas. I'll also reiterate that this is not meant to be any assessment of a player's skill or talent in these particular areas, the sample size is too small. It's merely a look at what has happened to this point in 2008. I've restricted the lists to players who have had at least 200 total PAs this season.

Rank	Total		Men On		RISP		Trailing		Tied		Leading
	Player	TwOBA	Player	MOwOBA	Player	wOBA	Player	wOBA	Player	wOBA	Player	wOBA
1	Albert Pujols	.466	Albert Pujols	.477	Ian Stewart	.490	Ryan J Braun	.475	Lance Berkman	.517	Albert Pujols	.508
2	Chipper Jones	.444	Alex Rodriguez	.465	David Ortiz	.480	Ty Wigginton	.451	Milton Bradley	.501	Chipper Jones	.503
3	Milton Bradley	.444	Matt Holliday	.464	Lance Berkman	.478	Matt Holliday	.450	Mike Aviles	.479	Ryan Ludwick	.467
4	Lance Berkman	.438	Ty Wigginton	.429	Albert Pujols	.469	Jermaine Dye	.445	Adam Lind	.478	Brad Hawpe	.460
5	Matt Holliday	.433	Ryan Ludwick	.428	Justin Morneau	.466	Ryan Spilborghs	.442	J.D. Drew	.474	Kevin Youkilis	.457
6	Ian Stewart	.422	J.D. Drew	.427	Grady Sizemore	.462	Prince Fielder	.441	Carlos Lee	.463	Lance Berkman	.456
7	Carlos Quentin	.417	Jermaine Dye	.425	Fernando Tatis	.461	Troy Glaus	.439	Aramis Ramirez	.458	Alex Rodriguez	.454
8	Alex Rodriguez	.417	Ryan J Braun	.422	Manny Ramirez	.459	Ian Stewart	.438	Albert Pujols	.455	Justin Morneau	.450
9	Manny Ramirez	.414	Milton Bradley	.421	David DeJesus	.456	Alfonso Soriano	.438	Gabe Kapler	.454	Aubrey Huff	.448
10	Ryan Ludwick	.411	Pat Burrell	.415	Denard Span	.452	Milton Bradley	.435	Chipper Jones	.450	Chase Utley	.440
11	Mark Teixeira	.410	Mike Fontenot	.415	Alexei Ramirez	.449	Mark Teixeira	.433	Hanley Ramirez	.450	Ryan Doumit	.439
12	Kevin Youkilis	.409	Chipper Jones	.414	Alfonso Soriano	.445	Brian Giles	.429	Bill Hall	.449	Jerry Hairston Jr.	.437
13	J.D. Drew	.402	Geovany Soto	.408	Jim Thome	.445	Albert Pujols	.422	Ian Stewart	.442	Joey Votto	.437
14	Ryan Spilborghs	.401	David Wright	.408	Jesus Flores	.442	Manny Ramirez	.421	Mike Fontenot	.437	Aramis Ramirez	.425
15	Carlos Lee	.400	Lance Berkman	.407	Ian Kinsler	.441	Shin-soo Choo	.420	Chris Iannetta	.433	Placido Polanco	.425
16	Hanley Ramirez	.399	Xavier Nady	.405	Nicholas Markakis	.440	Jhonny Peralta	.420	Miguel Olivo	.428	Matt Holliday	.422
17	Chase Utley	.394	Carlos Lee	.404	Milton Bradley	.437	Vladimir Guerrero	.418	Manny Ramirez	.428	Mark Teixeira	.421
18	Ryan J Braun	.394	Ian Stewart	.403	Carlos Quentin	.435	Matthew Joyce	.418	Brad Hawpe	.427	Omar Infante	.421
19	Xavier Nady	.394	Manny Ramirez	.403	Kevin Youkilis	.435	Carlos Quentin	.413	Ronnie Belliard	.426	Jayson Werth	.419
20	Pat Burrell	.394	Rick Ankiel	.402	Mark Teixeira	.432	Ian Kinsler	.405	Jim Thome	.425	Grady Sizemore	.418
21	Brad Hawpe	.393	Emmanuel Burriss	.402	J.D. Drew	.430	Josh Hamilton	.405	Matt Holliday	.425	Carlos Quentin	.417
22	Nicholas Markakis	.393	Hanley Ramirez	.400	Chris Iannetta	.429	Nicholas Markakis	.403	Xavier Nady	.424	Adam Dunn	.416
23	Adam Dunn	.392	Evan Longoria	.396	Casey Blake	.429	Alex Rodriguez	.403	Fernando Tatis	.423	Milton Bradley	.415
24	Aubrey Huff	.391	Mark Teixeira	.395	Aramis Ramirez	.427	Jason Bay	.403	Aaron Miles	.421	Brian McCann	.413
25	Aramis Ramirez	.391	Mark DeRosa	.394	Adam Dunn	.426	Joe Mauer	.401	Carlos Quentin	.419	Jimmy Rollins	.413
26	Grady Sizemore	.390	Miguel Cabrera	.390	Jody Gerut	.425	Brian Roberts	.401	Pat Burrell	.417	James Hardy	.413
27	Justin Morneau	.389	Carlos Pena	.387	Carlos Lee	.421	Chone Figgins	.398	Rick Ankiel	.416	Hanley Ramirez	.412
28	Mike Fontenot	.389	Grady Sizemore	.386	Jeffery Mathis	.420	Melvin Mora	.398	Marcus Thames	.415	Evan Longoria	.411
29	David Wright	.389	Adam Dunn	.384	Josh Hamilton	.420	Curtis Granderson	.397	Carlos Beltran	.414	Geovany Soto	.411
30	Jason Bay	.389	Jason Giambi	.384	Adrian Gonzalez	.420	Vernon Wells	.397	Miguel Cabrera	.412	Matthew Joyce	.409
31	Chris Iannetta	.388	Dustin Pedroia	.384	Chipper Jones	.419	Carlos Pena	.397	Hideki Matsui	.411	Mike Cameron	.409
32	Ty Wigginton	.386	Joe Mauer	.383	Mike Cuddyer	.418	Ryan Ludwick	.395	Josh Hamilton	.410	Ian Kinsler	.406
33	Ian Kinsler	.385	Jason Bay	.382	Doug Mientkiewicz	.417	Xavier Nady	.395	Brian Schneider	.410	Ray Durham	.403
34	Brian McCann	.385	Chase Utley	.382	Orlando Hudson	.415	Pat Burrell	.394	Cody Ross	.405	Marlon Byrd	.402
35	Jim Thome	.383	Elijah Dukes	.380	Reed Johnson	.413	Carlos Lee	.393	Adrian Beltre	.403	Shannon Stewart	.402
36	Josh Hamilton	.383	Jayson Werth	.379	Melvin Mora	.412	Jim Edmonds	.393	David Wright	.402	Manny Ramirez	.401
37	Alfonso Soriano	.382	Derrek Lee	.379	Ryan Howard	.410	Bobby Abreu	.391	Gabe Gross	.400	Mike Jacobs	.400
38	Joe Mauer	.382	Carlos Quentin	.378	Omar Infante	.410	J.D. Drew	.389	Jason Giambi	.400	Johnny Damon	.400
39	Ryan Doumit	.382	Nicholas Markakis	.377	Hideki Matsui	.409	Hideki Matsui	.389	Jason Bay	.396	David Wright	.400
40	Jermaine Dye	.382	Randy Winn	.376	Juan Uribe	.408	Orlando Hudson	.389	Adam Dunn	.395	Fred Lewis	.400
41	Jason Giambi	.379	Omar Infante	.376	Nick Swisher	.407	Jason Giambi	.389	Stephen Drew	.393	Russell Martin	.399
42	Mark DeRosa	.379	Edwin Encarnacion	.376	Johnny Damon	.407	Carlos Guillen	.388	Alex Rodriguez	.393	Ryan Spilborghs	.399
43	Jerry Hairston Jr.	.378	Hideki Matsui	.375	Stephen Drew	.407	Carlos Beltran	.387	Conor Jackson	.393	Josh Willingham	.399
44	David Ortiz	.378	Aubrey Huff	.375	Shin-soo Choo	.406	Darin Erstad	.386	Doug Mientkiewicz	.392	Ian Stewart	.399
45	Raul Ibanez	.377	Ian Kinsler	.375	Jason Michaels	.405	Frank Catalanotto	.386	Joe Mauer	.392	Ryan J Braun	.398
46	Geovany Soto	.377	Brian McCann	.375	Chris Snyder	.405	Ryan Church	.384	Ben Francisco	.392	Magglio Ordonez	.398
47	Hideki Matsui	.377	Curtis Granderson	.375	Conor Jackson	.404	Dustin Pedroia	.383	Ramon Vazquez	.391	Casey Blake	.396
48	Curtis Granderson	.376	Torii Hunter	.375	Vladimir Guerrero	.404	Lyle Overbay	.382	Damion Easley	.387	Matthew Kemp	.395
49	Prince Fielder	.376	Jack Cust	.373	Aubrey Huff	.404	Chase Headley	.382	Adrian Gonzalez	.386	Mark DeRosa	.395
50	Daniel Uggla	.375	Matthew Joyce	.373	Howie Kendrick	.402	Luke Scott	.381	Daniel Uggla	.384	Miguel Cabrera	.394
51	Marlon Byrd	.375	Matthew Kemp	.372	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.401	Raul Ibanez	.381	Derrek Lee	.383	Luis Castillo	.394
52	Ryan Church	.375	Alexis Rios	.371	Yadier Molina	.400	Chipper Jones	.380	Scott Rolen	.381	Carlos Delgado	.393
53	Evan Longoria	.375	Ryan Spilborghs	.371	Ronnie Belliard	.397	Evan Longoria	.380	Rich Aurilia	.381	Ryan Church	.393
54	Johnny Damon	.374	Brad Hawpe	.370	Matt Holliday	.397	Mark DeRosa	.380	Grady Sizemore	.381	Mike Aviles	.393
55	Troy Glaus	.373	Marlon Byrd	.370	Brad Hawpe	.394	Chris Davis	.379	Nicholas Markakis	.381	Nicholas Markakis	.392
56	Denard Span	.373	Ray Durham	.370	Ryan Doumit	.393	Jim Thome	.379	Denard Span	.381	Nathan McLouth	.392
57	Ronnie Belliard	.373	Jerry Hairston Jr.	.369	Mark DeRosa	.393	Conor Jackson	.379	David Ortiz	.380	David Ortiz	.391
58	Miguel Cabrera	.372	Alfonso Soriano	.368	Ramon Hernandez	.393	Brian McCann	.379	Josh Willingham	.380	Curtis Granderson	.391
59	Fernando Tatis	.372	Johnny Damon	.368	Skip Schumaker	.393	Adam Lind	.378	Ryan Howard	.380	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.391
60	Luke Scott	.372	Prince Fielder	.367	Joe Mauer	.392	Elijah Dukes	.377	James Hardy	.379	Brandon Phillips	.389
61	Matthew Joyce	.372	Aramis Ramirez	.367	Ryan J Braun	.390	Mark Reynolds	.377	Dustin Pedroia	.378	Reed Johnson	.389
62	Brian Giles	.372	Jose Reyes	.366	Daniel Uggla	.389	Lance Berkman	.377	Adam Kennedy	.378	Mike Cuddyer	.389
63	Mike Cameron	.371	Magglio Ordonez	.366	Todd Helton	.388	Aubrey Huff	.377	Jack Cust	.376	Brian Roberts	.388
64	Conor Jackson	.370	Carlos Guillen	.365	Jimmy Rollins	.388	Cody Ross	.377	Ray Durham	.376	Mike Fontenot	.387
65	Jayson Werth	.369	Todd Helton	.365	Mark Reynolds	.388	Jerry Hairston Jr.	.377	Jeremy Reed	.376	Mark Kotsay	.387
66	Adrian Gonzalez	.368	Lyle Overbay	.364	Curtis Granderson	.388	Edwin Encarnacion	.376	Kosuke Fukudome	.375	Andre Ethier	.387
67	Brian Roberts	.368	Josh Hamilton	.364	Chris Coste	.388	Denard Span	.376	Mark Teixeira	.373	Bobby Abreu	.386
68	Vladimir Guerrero	.368	Garrett Atkins	.364	Jayson Werth	.387	Fernando Tatis	.375	Alex Gordon	.373	Jermaine Dye	.386
69	Carlos Pena	.368	Luke Scott	.364	Ryan Ludwick	.387	A.J. Pierzynski	.374	Aaron Rowand	.373	Willie Harris	.385
70	Jose Reyes	.368	Brian Giles	.363	Darin Erstad	.387	Clint Barmes	.374	Chase Utley	.373	Alfonso Soriano	.385
71	Bobby Abreu	.367	Andre Ethier	.363	Nathan McLouth	.386	Geovany Soto	.374	Raul Ibanez	.373	Ryan Howard	.384
72	Rick Ankiel	.366	Troy Glaus	.362	Ken Griffey Jr.	.386	Adam Dunn	.373	Johnny Damon	.372	Cliff Floyd	.383
73	Mike Aviles	.366	Jim Edmonds	.362	Ryan Spilborghs	.386	BJ Upton	.372	Joe Crede	.372	Chris Iannetta	.382
74	Magglio Ordonez	.365	Jhonny Peralta	.362	Mark Loretta	.386	Kevin Youkilis	.372	Cliff Floyd	.372	Jose Guillen	.381
75	Ramon Vazquez	.364	Raul Ibanez	.362	Carlos Pena	.385	Kelly Shoppach	.372	Ken Griffey Jr.	.371	Jeff Keppinger	.381
76	Derrek Lee	.364	Placido Polanco	.361	Xavier Nady	.383	Jeremy Hermida	.372	Chris Davis	.370	Jose Reyes	.380
77	Dustin Pedroia	.364	Jeff Kent	.360	Brian Giles	.383	Jose Reyes	.371	Ryan Doumit	.369	Luke Scott	.380
78	Josh Willingham	.363	Josh Willingham	.360	John Bowker	.383	Adam LaRoche	.371	Skip Schumaker	.367	Daniel Uggla	.378
79	Nathan McLouth	.363	Jeff Baker	.360	Cody Ross	.383	Chase Utley	.371	Kevin Youkilis	.367	Ken Griffey Jr.	.378
80	Jack Cust	.363	Justin Upton	.360	Ryan Garko	.383	Todd Helton	.371	Randy Winn	.367	Raul Ibanez	.377
81	Reed Johnson	.363	Skip Schumaker	.359	Mike Fontenot	.380	Marlon Byrd	.370	Matt Stairs	.366	Luis Gonzalez	.377
82	Orlando Hudson	.362	Carlos Beltran	.359	Andre Ethier	.380	Mike Fontenot	.369	Yuniesky Betancourt	.366	Pat Burrell	.377
83	Chris Davis	.361	Ryan Doumit	.359	Chase Utley	.380	Nick Swisher	.369	Russell Martin	.366	Alexei Ramirez	.376
84	James Hardy	.361	Kazuo Matsui	.358	Joey Votto	.379	Omar Infante	.369	Jason Kubel	.365	Justin Upton	.375
85	Carlos Beltran	.361	Shane Victorino	.358	Pat Burrell	.378	Grady Sizemore	.369	Hunter Pence	.365	Kelly Johnson	.374
86	Jody Gerut	.361	Eric Hinske	.357	Corey Hart	.377	Chris Iannetta	.369	Casey Kotchman	.364	Mark Grudzielanek	.374
87	Russell Martin	.360	James Loney	.356	Juan Pierre	.377	Jody Gerut	.368	Alfredo Amezaga	.364	Carlos Pena	.374
88	Carlos Delgado	.360	Orlando Hudson	.355	Kosuke Fukudome	.376	Derrek Lee	.368	Mike Cameron	.363	Mike Lowell	.373
89	Eric Hinske	.359	Brian Roberts	.355	Brian McCann	.375	Reed Johnson	.368	Ryan Theriot	.363	Kurt Suzuki	.371
90	Todd Helton	.358	Chris Davis	.355	Mike Lowell	.375	Daniel Uggla	.367	Ty Wigginton	.362	Xavier Nady	.371
91	Fred Lewis	.358	Ryan Theriot	.355	BJ Upton	.375	Chris Snyder	.367	Paul Konerko	.361	Garrett Atkins	.369
92	Kelly Shoppach	.358	Cliff Floyd	.354	Miguel Olivo	.372	Jason Kubel	.366	Troy Glaus	.360	Aaron Hill	.368
93	Shin-soo Choo	.358	Kevin Youkilis	.354	Matthew Joyce	.371	Craig Counsell	.366	Scott Hairston	.360	Ryan Sweeney	.368
94	Melvin Mora	.357	Chris Iannetta	.353	Joe Crede	.371	Scott Hairston	.365	Eric Hinske	.360	Carlos Lee	.367
95	Elijah Dukes	.356	Frank Catalanotto	.353	Kelly Johnson	.371	David DeJesus	.364	David Murphy	.360	Jim Edmonds	.366
96	Ray Durham	.356	A.J. Pierzynski	.353	James Loney	.370	Justin Morneau	.364	Kurt Suzuki	.359	Shane Victorino	.366
97	Chris Snyder	.356	Ivan Rodriguez	.352	Wes Helms	.370	#N/A	#N/A	Gerald Laird	.359	Jason Bay	.366
98	Carlos Guillen	.355	Joey Votto	.352	Troy Glaus	.369	Orlando Cabrera	.363	Edgar V Gonzalez	.359	Eric Hinske	.366
99	Adam Lind	.355	Mike Lowell	.352	Carlos Delgado	.369	Jack Cust	.362	Rickie Weeks	.357	Denard Span	.366
100	Jim Edmonds	.355	Dioner Navarro	.352	Magglio Ordonez	.368	James Loney	.359	Jody Gerut	.357	Brian Giles	.366

Rank	Total		Men On		RISP		Trailing		Tied		Leading
	Player	TwOBA	Player	MOwOBA	Player	wOBA	Player	wOBA	Player	wOBA	Player	wOBA
101	Matthew Kemp	.355	Ronnie Belliard	.352	Raul Ibanez	.368	Akinori Iwamura	.359	Elijah Dukes	.356	David Eckstein	.365
102	Alexei Ramirez	.354	Daniel Uggla	.351	Alex Rodriguez	.367	David Ortiz	.358	Joe Inglett	.356	Scott Rolen	.365
103	Gabe Kapler	.354	Mark Grudzielanek	.351	Aaron Rowand	.367	Howie Kendrick	.357	Todd Helton	.356	Gabe Kapler	.364
104	Joey Votto	.354	Rod Barajas	.351	Ben Molina	.366	Adrian Gonzalez	.357	Michael Young	.356	Randy Winn	.364
105	Torii Hunter	.354	Carlos Delgado	.351	Ryan Sweeney	.366	Fred Lewis	.356	Matthew Kemp	.355	Ramon Vazquez	.364
106	Randy Winn	.354	Jim Thome	.351	Carlos Beltran	.365	Nathan McLouth	.356	James Loney	.354	Adrian Gonzalez	.364
107	Vernon Wells	.354	Fred Lewis	.350	Marlon Byrd	.365	Ryan Doumit	.355	Ichiro Suzuki	.353	Torii Hunter	.363
108	Ben Francisco	.354	Conor Jackson	.350	Brandon Boggs	.365	David Wright	.354	Brendan Harris	.353	Garret Anderson	.363
109	Skip Schumaker	.354	Vernon Wells	.349	Kurt Suzuki	.365	Alexei Ramirez	.354	Torii Hunter	.352	Marcus Thames	.363
110	Casey Blake	.353	Scott Hairston	.348	Kelly Shoppach	.365	David Murphy	.353	Gregor Blanco	.351	J.D. Drew	.363
111	Ryan Theriot	.353	Adam LaRoche	.348	Billy Butler	.364	Magglio Ordonez	.353	Jose Reyes	.351	Cristian Guzman	.363
112	Marcus Thames	.353	Lastings Milledge	.348	Augie Ojeda	.364	Joey Votto	.353	Nathan McLouth	.351	Alexis Rios	.362
113	Lyle Overbay	.353	Mike Cameron	.347	Elijah Dukes	.364	Johnny Damon	.352	Yunel Escobar	.351	Jorge Cantu	.362
114	Shane Victorino	.353	Robinson Cano	.347	Garret Anderson	.363	Derek Jeter	.352	Carlos Guillen	.350	Nick Swisher	.362
115	Omar Infante	.353	Alexei Ramirez	.347	Prince Fielder	.363	Ronnie Belliard	.352	Ramon Hernandez	.350	Kevin Kouzmanoff	.361
116	Adam LaRoche	.353	Julio Lugo	.347	Ramon Vazquez	.362	Ryan Zimmerman	.352	Andre Ethier	.350	Kevin Millar	.361
117	Cody Ross	.352	James Hardy	.347	Gregor Blanco	.362	Augie Ojeda	.352	Jose Guillen	.349	Ronnie Belliard	.361
118	Justin Upton	.351	David Murphy	.347	Lyle Overbay	.361	Yunel Escobar	.351	Emmanuel Burriss	.348	Skip Schumaker	.361
119	Placido Polanco	.349	Marcus Thames	.346	Ryan Church	.361	Ramon Vazquez	.351	Endy Chavez	.348	Ryan Theriot	.361
120	BJ Upton	.349	Miguel Tejada	.346	Geoff Blum	.360	Eric Hinske	.350	Shane Victorino	.348	Willy Aybar	.360
121	Andre Ethier	.349	Mike Aviles	.345	Gerald Laird	.360	Ben Francisco	.349	Kelly Shoppach	.348	Jason Kendall	.359
122	Jhonny Peralta	.348	Stephen Drew	.345	Daric Barton	.360	Gregg Zaun	.348	Kazuo Matsui	.348	Frank Thomas	.359
123	James Loney	.348	Clint Barmes	.345	Jose Reyes	.359	Chris Coste	.348	BJ Upton	.348	Chris Snyder	.359
124	Cliff Floyd	.347	Vladimir Guerrero	.344	Miguel Cabrera	.359	Chris Duncan	.348	Jeff Baker	.347	Mark Loretta	.359
125	Nick Swisher	.347	Kevin Millar	.344	Jim Edmonds	.358	Ryan Garko	.347	Brian McCann	.346	Orlando Hudson	.358
126	Edwin Encarnacion	.347	Yunel Escobar	.343	Torii Hunter	.358	Hanley Ramirez	.346	Justin Morneau	.346	Jay Bruce	.358
127	Chris Coste	.347	Rickie Weeks	.343	Jeff Keppinger	.358	Adam Jones	.345	Ryan Ludwick	.345	Mark Reynolds	.358
128	Willie Harris	.346	Ben Francisco	.342	Marco Scutaro	.358	Emmanuel Burriss	.345	Juan Rivera	.345	Vernon Wells	.357
129	Corey Hart	.346	Shin-soo Choo	.341	Willie Harris	.357	Shane Victorino	.344	Curtis Granderson	.344	Rick Ankiel	.357
130	Ken Griffey Jr.	.345	Chase Headley	.340	Brian Roberts	.357	Jamey Carroll	.344	Luke Scott	.343	Ivan Rodriguez	.356
131	David DeJesus	.345	Paul Konerko	.340	Hanley Ramirez	.357	Torii Hunter	.343	Maicer Izturis	.343	Jason Varitek	.356
132	Mark Reynolds	.345	Nick Swisher	.340	Geovany Soto	.356	Delmon Young	.341	Ian Kinsler	.342	Joe Mauer	.356
133	Stephen Drew	.345	Nathan McLouth	.340	Luis Castillo	.356	Richie Sexson	.340	Miguel Tejada	.341	Rod Barajas	.355
134	Garrett Atkins	.344	Corey Hart	.339	Russell Martin	.355	Corey Hart	.340	Dioner Navarro	.341	Jim Thome	.355
135	Doug Mientkiewicz	.343	Derek Jeter	.338	Brandon Inge	.354	Kevin Kouzmanoff	.340	Aubrey Huff	.340	Jason Giambi	.355
136	Aaron Rowand	.343	Adam Lind	.338	Yunel Escobar	.354	Placido Polanco	.340	Carlos Delgado	.340	Corey Hart	.354
137	Scott Hairston	.342	Gary Sheffield	.337	Mike Cameron	.353	John Bowker	.340	Garrett Atkins	.340	Nick Punto	.354
138	Alexis Rios	.342	Adam Jones	.337	Maicer Izturis	.353	Yadier Molina	.338	Lyle Overbay	.340	Prince Fielder	.353
139	Joe Inglett	.341	Adrian Beltre	.335	David Dellucci	.353	Ichiro Suzuki	.337	Vladimir Guerrero	.340	Alexi Casilla	.353
140	Jorge Cantu	.341	Cody Ross	.334	Jose Lopez	.352	Mike Cameron	.336	Magglio Ordonez	.340	Lastings Milledge	.353
141	Ryan Howard	.341	Russell Martin	.334	Vernon Wells	.352	Jorge Cantu	.336	Chris B Young	.340	Jack Cust	.352
142	Jason Kubel	.340	Endy Chavez	.333	Eric Hinske	.351	Alexi Casilla	.336	Mark DeRosa	.339	Jody Gerut	.352
143	Alex Gordon	.340	Justin Morneau	.333	Mike Jacobs	.351	Justin Upton	.335	Wes Helms	.339	Jeff Baker	.351
144	Mike Lowell	.338	Bobby Abreu	.332	Luke Scott	.351	David Dellucci	.335	Alexis Rios	.338	Vladimir Guerrero	.350
145	Ichiro Suzuki	.337	Chris Snyder	.332	Bobby Abreu	.350	Gary Sheffield	.335	David Dellucci	.337	Chris Coste	.350
146	Kazuo Matsui	.337	Jason Kubel	.332	Josh Willingham	.348	Randy Winn	.334	Ryan Church	.336	Ben Molina	.350
147	Howie Kendrick	.336	Ryan Church	.332	Victor Martinez	.348	Gabe Gross	.334	Orlando Hudson	.336	Gregor Blanco	.350
148	David Murphy	.336	Willy Aybar	.332	David Murphy	.348	Julio Lugo	.334	Blake Dewitt	.336	Matt Stairs	.350
149	Derek Jeter	.336	Jeremy Reed	.331	John Buck	.347	Kazuo Matsui	.334	Robinson Cano	.336	Kelly Shoppach	.349
150	Chase Headley	.335	David Eckstein	.331	Kevin Millar	.347	Jose Bautista	.334	Corey Hart	.336	Shin-soo Choo	.349
151	Clint Barmes	.335	Brandon Boggs	.331	Shane Victorino	.347	Eric Bruntlett	.334	Omar Quintanilla	.335	John Bowker	.348
152	Scott Rolen	.335	Aaron Miles	.330	Derrek Lee	.346	Willie Harris	.333	Chris Coste	.335	Fernando Tatis	.347
153	Joe Crede	.335	Brandon Phillips	.330	Nick Punto	.345	David Eckstein	.333	Prince Fielder	.335	Billy Butler	.347
154	Kosuke Fukudome	.334	Denard Span	.329	Matthew Kemp	.345	Rick Ankiel	.332	Lastings Milledge	.335	Coco Crisp	.346
155	Mike Jacobs	.334	Joe Inglett	.329	Derek Jeter	.345	Jay Bruce	.330	Mike Lamb	.335	Edgar Renteria	.346
156	Gerald Laird	.334	Chris Coste	.328	Carlos Gomez	.344	Ryan Theriot	.330	Howie Kendrick	.335	Gerald Laird	.346
157	Yunel Escobar	.334	Nick Punto	.328	Luis Gonzalez	.344	Ross Gload	.329	Alfonso Soriano	.334	Derrek Lee	.346
158	Kevin Millar	.333	Jorge Cantu	.328	Jhonny Peralta	.343	Skip Schumaker	.329	Marlon Byrd	.334	Dioner Navarro	.346
159	Mark Kotsay	.332	Gregg Zaun	.328	Fred Lewis	.343	Jimmy Rollins	.328	Justin Upton	.333	Yadier Molina	.345
160	Jimmy Rollins	.332	Aaron Rowand	.327	Rick Ankiel	.342	Jack Wilson	.327	Emil Brown	.333	Conor Jackson	.345
161	Yadier Molina	.332	Adrian Gonzalez	.327	Casey Kotchman	.342	Brad Hawpe	.326	Frank Thomas	.332	Joe Inglett	.345
162	Aaron Miles	.331	Rich Aurilia	.327	Chone Figgins	.341	Garrett Atkins	.326	Matt Treanor	.332	David DeJesus	.345
163	Alexi Casilla	.331	Willie Harris	.326	Brad Ausmus	.341	Rickie Weeks	.326	Victor Martinez	.331	Doug Mientkiewicz	.345
164	Brandon Boggs	.331	Cristian Guzman	.326	Matt Stairs	.341	Jeff Kent	.326	Pedro Feliz	.331	Yorvit Torrealba	.344
165	Nick Punto	.330	Brad Wilkerson	.326	Chad Tracy	.340	Brandon Phillips	.325	Ryan Sweeney	.331	Pedro Feliz	.344
166	Jeremy Hermida	.330	Kelly Shoppach	.326	Delmon Young	.339	Joe Inglett	.325	Chris Snyder	.330	Chris B Young	.344
167	Michael Young	.330	Jeremy Hermida	.325	Eric Byrnes	.338	Casey Blake	.325	Jose Vidro	.330	Brandon Boggs	.344
168	Matt Stairs	.330	Michael Young	.325	Michael Young	.338	Kevin Millar	.323	Adam LaRoche	.330	Mark Ellis	.343
169	Miguel Olivo	.330	Alex Gordon	.324	David Eckstein	.338	Alexis Rios	.323	Jose Lopez	.329	Alex Gordon	.342
170	Paul Konerko	.329	Omar Quintanilla	.324	Mike Lamb	.338	Melky Cabrera	.322	Ryan Spilborghs	.329	Adam LaRoche	.342
171	Jeff Baker	.329	Fernando Tatis	.324	Jose Bautista	.338	Jose Lopez	.322	Jeff Francoeur	.329	Aaron Rowand	.342
172	Kevin Kouzmanoff	.329	Casey Blake	.323	Ty Wigginton	.337	Miguel Cabrera	.321	Jerry Hairston Jr.	.328	Stephen Drew	.341
173	Brandon Phillips	.328	Alexi Casilla	.323	Omar Vizquel	.337	Carlos Delgado	.320	Brandon Inge	.328	Josh Hamilton	.341
174	A.J. Pierzynski	.328	BJ Upton	.323	Randy Winn	.337	Brandon Boggs	.320	Jeremy Hermida	.327	Melvin Mora	.341
175	Gabe Gross	.328	Akinori Iwamura	.322	Cristian Guzman	.336	Geoff Jenkins	.320	Carlos Pena	.327	Hideki Matsui	.341
176	Dioner Navarro	.328	Jason Varitek	.322	Carlos E Gonzalez	.336	Jeff Clement	.320	Richie Sexson	.326	Augie Ojeda	.340
177	Kurt Suzuki	.327	Craig Counsell	.321	Scott Rolen	.336	Marco Scutaro	.319	Nick Punto	.326	Kosuke Fukudome	.340
178	Kelly Johnson	.327	Chad Tracy	.321	Frank Thomas	.336	Aaron Rowand	.319	A.J. Pierzynski	.325	Todd Helton	.339
179	Adrian Beltre	.326	Troy Tulowitzki	.321	Jason Kubel	.335	Russell Martin	.319	Juan Pierre	.325	Troy Glaus	.338
180	Garret Anderson	.326	Kelly Johnson	.321	Brandon Phillips	.335	Aaron Miles	.319	Chone Figgins	.324	Omar Quintanilla	.338
181	Luis Gonzalez	.326	Chris Duncan	.321	Alfredo Amezaga	.333	Ivan Rodriguez	.319	Ryan Garko	.324	Darin Erstad	.338
182	Chone Figgins	.325	Mark Kotsay	.321	Gary Sheffield	.333	Josh Willingham	.318	Chad Tracy	.323	Chad Tracy	.338
183	Akinori Iwamura	.325	Kurt Suzuki	.321	Jeff Clement	.333	Doug Mientkiewicz	.317	Fred Lewis	.323	Lyle Overbay	.338
184	Mark Grudzielanek	.325	Gabe Kapler	.320	Scott Hairston	.332	Juan Rivera	.317	Derek Jeter	.323	Miguel Tejada	.338
185	Jeff Kent	.324	Ichiro Suzuki	.320	Alexi Casilla	.331	Mark Grudzielanek	.316	Mark Ellis	.323	Dustin Pedroia	.337
186	Frank Catalanotto	.324	Carl Crawford	.318	Erick Aybar	.331	Joe Crede	.316	Marco Scutaro	.323	Jacoby Ellsbury	.335
187	Rich Aurilia	.324	Jose Guillen	.318	Jamey Carroll	.331	Andre Ethier	.316	Luis Castillo	.323	Brandon Inge	.335
188	David Eckstein	.324	Jody Gerut	.318	Mark Ellis	.331	Matthew Kemp	.316	Bobby Abreu	.323	Chase Headley	.335
189	Jose Lopez	.323	Mark Reynolds	.318	Blake Dewitt	.330	Alex Gordon	.314	Willie Harris	.322	James Loney	.333
190	David Dellucci	.323	Kevin Kouzmanoff	.316	Ray Durham	.330	Garret Anderson	.314	Mike Lowell	.322	Derek Jeter	.332
191	Chris Duncan	.323	Jamey Carroll	.316	Aaron Miles	.328	Gary Matthews Jr.	.312	Melvin Mora	.321	Chris Davis	.331
192	Ivan Rodriguez	.322	David Ortiz	.315	Kevin Kouzmanoff	.328	Paul Konerko	.310	Erick Aybar	.321	Jhonny Peralta	.330
193	Gregor Blanco	.322	Andruw Jones	.312	Ross Gload	.327	Maicer Izturis	.310	Jayson Werth	.321	BJ Upton	.330
194	Rickie Weeks	.322	Chone Figgins	.312	Bill Hall	.326	Jay Payton	.310	Evan Longoria	.321	Jason Michaels	.330
195	Jamey Carroll	.321	Melvin Mora	.312	Chris B Young	.326	Bobby Crosby	.310	Brandon Boggs	.321	Kazuo Matsui	.330
196	Darin Erstad	.321	Casey Kotchman	.310	Jason Bay	.325	Michael Young	.309	Jacoby Ellsbury	.320	Jeffery Mathis	.329
197	Lastings Milledge	.321	Augie Ojeda	.310	Evan Longoria	.325	Mike Jacobs	.308	Jorge Cantu	.320	Orlando Cabrera	.328
198	Ryan Sweeney	.321	David DeJesus	.310	Jeremy Hermida	.325	Joey Gathright	.308	David DeJesus	.320	Chris Duncan	.328
199	Mark Loretta	.320	Ryan Zimmerman	.310	Dioner Navarro	.325	Gerald Laird	.308	Carl Crawford	.319	Carlos Guillen	.328
200	Cristian Guzman	.320	Reed Johnson	.310	Jorge Cantu	.324	Ben Molina	.308	Edwin Encarnacion	.319	Julio Lugo	.328
201	Delmon Young	.320	Yuniesky Betancourt	.309	Gabe Gross	.324	Nick Punto	.307	Jeff Kent	.318	Ben Francisco	.328
202	Adam Jones	.320	Matt Stairs	.309	Hunter Pence	.323	Jesus Flores	.307	Mark Kotsay	.317	Michael Young	.327
203	Augie Ojeda	.320	Joe Crede	.309	Gary Matthews Jr.	.323	Cristian Guzman	.307	Brian Giles	.317	Blake Dewitt	.327
204	Pedro Feliz	.320	Felipe Lopez	.309	Ichiro Suzuki	.322	Jose Castillo	.306	Jamey Carroll	.317	Joe Crede	.327
205	Brian Schneider	.320	Mark Ellis	.309	Pedro Feliz	.322	Stephen Drew	.306	Casey Blake	.316	Geoff Blum	.326
206	Rod Barajas	.319	Jose Lopez	.308	Ryan Theriot	.322	Juan Uribe	.306	Clint Barmes	.316	Jeff Kent	.326
207	Frank Thomas	.319	Ken Griffey Jr.	.308	Dustin Pedroia	.321	Wes Helms	.306	Troy Tulowitzki	.315	Carl Crawford	.326
208	Miguel Tejada	.319	Orlando Cabrera	.308	Carlos Joaquin Ruiz	.321	Geoff Blum	.306	Delmon Young	.315	Felipe Lopez	.325
209	Hunter Pence	.319	Richie Sexson	.308	Rod Barajas	.321	Mark Loretta	.305	Gary Sheffield	.315	Paul Konerko	.325
210	Edgar V Gonzalez	.318	Bill Hall	.307	Alexis Rios	.321	Rich Aurilia	.303	Eric Byrnes	.314	Edwin Encarnacion	.325
211	Marco Scutaro	.318	Geoff Jenkins	.307	Placido Polanco	.319	Carl Crawford	.302	Reed Johnson	.314	Willy Taveras	.324
212	Chad Tracy	.318	Luis Gonzalez	.307	Chris Duncan	.318	Carlos Joaquin Ruiz	.302	Jason Varitek	.313	Jack Wilson	.323
213	Ben Molina	.318	Jason Bartlett	.307	Edgar Renteria	.318	Jeff Baker	.302	Jesus Flores	.310	Akinori Iwamura	.323
214	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.318	Jay Bruce	.306	Carlos Guillen	.318	Mike Lowell	.302	Kevin Millar	.309	Howie Kendrick	.323
215	Ramon Hernandez	.317	Aaron Hill	.305	Edwin Encarnacion	.317	Marcus Thames	.301	Frank Catalanotto	.308	Franklin Gutierrez	.323
216	Luis Castillo	.317	Frank Thomas	.305	Jason Kendall	.317	Rod Barajas	.300	Alexei Ramirez	.308	Mark Teahen	.322
217	Ryan Zimmerman	.317	Gabe Gross	.304	Matt Treanor	.317	Billy Butler	.300	John Buck	.308	Jose Bautista	.322
218	Carl Crawford	.316	Franklin Gutierrez	.304	Damion Easley	.316	Jason Michaels	.300	Kelly Johnson	.307	Elijah Dukes	.321
219	Jose Bautista	.316	Ramon Vazquez	.304	Paul Konerko	.315	Brian Schneider	.300	Luis Gonzalez	.306	Ramon Hernandez	.321
220	Coco Crisp	.316	Marco Scutaro	.304	Gabe Kapler	.314	Hunter Pence	.298	Brian Roberts	.306	Asdrubal Cabrera	.320
221	Casey Kotchman	.315	Jacoby Ellsbury	.303	David Wright	.314	Dioner Navarro	.298	Vernon Wells	.306	Jose Lopez	.320
222	Chris B Young	.315	Chris B Young	.303	Jerry Hairston Jr.	.313	Casey Kotchman	.297	Jeff Clement	.306	Miguel Olivo	.320
223	Richie Sexson	.315	Edgar V Gonzalez	.303	Jack Cust	.313	Ken Griffey Jr.	.297	Geovany Soto	.305	Adrian Beltre	.318
224	Gary Sheffield	.315	Jeff Francoeur	.303	Jose Guillen	.312	Ray Durham	.296	Freddy Sanchez	.305	Jay Payton	.318
225	Mike Cuddyer	.314	Erick Aybar	.302	Clint Barmes	.312	Kelly Johnson	.296	Shannon Stewart	.305	Erick Aybar	.318
226	Willy Aybar	.314	Ramon Hernandez	.302	Jacoby Ellsbury	.312	Chad Tracy	.295	Daric Barton	.305	Jason Bartlett	.317
227	Brandon Inge	.314	Kosuke Fukudome	.301	Alex Gordon	.312	Ramon Hernandez	.295	Alexi Casilla	.304	Robinson Cano	.316
228	Jason Varitek	.313	Ross Gload	.301	Carl Crawford	.311	Yorvit Torrealba	.295	Brad Ausmus	.304	Geoff Jenkins	.316
229	Ryan Garko	.313	Jose Bautista	.301	Adam Jones	.310	Kosuke Fukudome	.294	Cristian Guzman	.304	Edgar V Gonzalez	.316
230	Maicer Izturis	.313	Ryan Howard	.301	Freddy Sanchez	.309	Mark Kotsay	.293	Ryan Zimmerman	.303	Jesus Flores	.315
231	Jay Bruce	.313	Coco Crisp	.300	Chris Davis	.309	Edgar V Gonzalez	.292	Mark Loretta	.302	Hunter Pence	.314
232	Robinson Cano	.312	Jose Castillo	.300	Adrian Beltre	.308	Brad Wilkerson	.292	Carlos E Gonzalez	.301	Ichiro Suzuki	.314
233	Julio Lugo	.312	Doug Mientkiewicz	.300	Mark Kotsay	.308	Robinson Cano	.292	Adam Jones	.301	Corey Patterson	.314
234	Orlando Cabrera	.310	Pedro Feliz	.299	Jay Payton	.307	Luis Gonzalez	.291	Jermaine Dye	.301	Marco Scutaro	.313
235	Mark Ellis	.310	Damion Easley	.298	Shannon Stewart	.307	Lastings Milledge	.290	Jeff Keppinger	.299	Ty Wigginton	.313
236	Jesus Flores	.310	Jason Kendall	.298	Eric Bruntlett	.306	Miguel Tejada	.290	Ben Molina	.298	Troy Tulowitzki	.312
237	Gregg Zaun	.310	Yorvit Torrealba	.298	Emil Brown	.306	Emil Brown	.290	Nick Swisher	.297	Paul Bako	.312
238	Jeremy Reed	.310	Carlos Joaquin Ruiz	.298	Tadahito Iguchi	.306	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.289	Tadahito Iguchi	.296	Carlos Beltran	.311
239	Billy Butler	.309	Willy Taveras	.298	Brendan Harris	.306	Miguel Olivo	.289	Asdrubal Cabrera	.296	Jack Hannahan	.311
240	Jose Guillen	.309	Bobby Crosby	.298	Jason Giambi	.305	Troy Tulowitzki	.288	Ryan J Braun	.295	David Murphy	.311
241	Brendan Harris	.309	Hunter Pence	.297	Adam LaRoche	.305	Mark Teahen	.288	Yadier Molina	.295	Jamey Carroll	.307
242	Jacoby Ellsbury	.308	Scott Rolen	.297	Frank Catalanotto	.304	Coco Crisp	.288	Akinori Iwamura	.294	Rich Aurilia	.306
243	Aaron Hill	.308	Jack Wilson	.296	Bobby Crosby	.304	Jeremy Reed	.287	Willy Aybar	.293	Jose Molina	.306
244	Damion Easley	.308	Adam Kennedy	.296	Jay Bruce	.304	Erick Aybar	.286	Felipe Lopez	.292	Brad Ausmus	.306
245	Erick Aybar	.307	Brendan Harris	.296	Brian Schneider	.303	Pedro Feliz	.285	Bobby Crosby	.290	Brendan Harris	.305
246	Bill Hall	.307	Emil Brown	.296	Edgar V Gonzalez	.303	Mike Cuddyer	.285	Jose Castillo	.290	Jeff Francoeur	.305
247	Emmanuel Burriss	.307	Ben Molina	.296	Jermaine Dye	.302	Willy Aybar	.285	Cesar Izturis	.289	Austin Kearns	.305
248	Geoff Jenkins	.306	Gerald Laird	.295	Yorvit Torrealba	.302	Brandon Inge	.284	Placido Polanco	.289	Adam Jones	.304
249	Blake Dewitt	.305	Luis Castillo	.295	Akinori Iwamura	.301	Brendan Harris	.284	Coco Crisp	.288	Mike Lamb	.304
250	Edgar Renteria	.304	Delmon Young	.295	Rickie Weeks	.301	John Buck	.283	Mark Grudzielanek	.288	Delmon Young	.304
251	Troy Tulowitzki	.303	Blake Dewitt	.295	Mike Aviles	.300	Adrian Beltre	.282	Jhonny Peralta	.288	Daric Barton	.303
252	Jack Wilson	.303	Edgar Renteria	.294	Rich Aurilia	.299	James Hardy	.280	Jim Edmonds	.286	Cesar Izturis	.302
253	Geoff Blum	.303	Gregor Blanco	.293	Jose Castillo	.298	Aaron Hill	.280	Rod Barajas	.285	Jason Kubel	.302
254	John Bowker	.303	Mark Teahen	.293	Robinson Cano	.298	Frank Thomas	.280	Chris Duncan	.284	Casey Kotchman	.302
255	Ross Gload	.302	Austin Kearns	.292	Jeff Kent	.297	Edgar Renteria	.280	Garret Anderson	.284	Ross Gload	.301
256	Jeff Keppinger	.301	Maicer Izturis	.291	Jack Wilson	.296	Felipe Lopez	.279	Edgar Renteria	.281	David Dellucci	.301
257	Jason Kendall	.300	Asdrubal Cabrera	.291	Adam Kennedy	.296	Freddy Sanchez	.279	Mark Teahen	.281	Clint Barmes	.301
258	Jason Michaels	.300	David Dellucci	.291	James Hardy	.295	Jack Hannahan	.279	Kevin Kouzmanoff	.280	Carlos Gomez	.299
259	Yorvit Torrealba	.299	Miguel Olivo	.289	Justin Upton	.294	Yuniesky Betancourt	.278	Gary Matthews Jr.	.280	Khalil Greene	.299
260	Mark Teahen	.298	Jimmy Rollins	.288	Omar Quintanilla	.293	Luis Rivas	.277	Brandon Phillips	.278	Juan Uribe	.298
261	Emil Brown	.298	Howie Kendrick	.288	Troy Tulowitzki	.293	Kenji Johjima	.277	Austin Kearns	.277	Yunel Escobar	.298
262	Craig Counsell	.297	Yadier Molina	.287	Cliff Floyd	.293	Juan Pierre	.276	David Eckstein	.276	Brad Wilkerson	.297
263	Felipe Lopez	.297	Mark Loretta	.286	Austin Kearns	.292	Paul Bako	.276	Jack Hannahan	.275	John Buck	.294
264	Asdrubal Cabrera	.296	Cesar Izturis	.286	Chase Headley	.292	Victor Martinez	.276	Jason Kendall	.275	Cody Ross	.294
265	Victor Martinez	.296	Juan Uribe	.286	Mark Grudzielanek	.292	Cliff Floyd	.275	Mark Reynolds	.273	Gregg Zaun	.293
266	Jay Payton	.296	Darin Erstad	.284	A.J. Pierzynski	.291	Jason Bartlett	.274	#N/A	#N/A	Maicer Izturis	.293
267	Juan Uribe	.296	Ryan Sweeney	.283	Joey Gathright	.291	Gregor Blanco	.274	Jeffery Mathis	.273	Gary Sheffield	.292
268	Bobby Crosby	.296	Melky Cabrera	.282	Garrett Atkins	.290	Mark Ellis	.273	Mike Cuddyer	.271	A.J. Pierzynski	.291
269	Jose Castillo	.295	Jose Molina	.282	Joe Inglett	.289	Austin Kearns	.273	Ivan Rodriguez	.271	Brian Schneider	.290
270	Gary Matthews Jr.	.294	Shannon Stewart	.281	Ivan Rodriguez	.289	Jose Vidro	.272	Willy Taveras	.270	Scott Hairston	.290
271	Wes Helms	.293	Luis Rivas	.281	Adam Lind	.289	Ryan Howard	.272	Joey Gathright	.270	Bill Hall	.289
272	Juan Rivera	.293	Wily Mo Pena	.280	Mark Teahen	.288	Aramis Ramirez	.272	#N/A	#N/A	Adam Lind	.289
273	Juan Pierre	.292	Brandon Inge	.279	Felipe Lopez	.286	Matt Stairs	.271	Carlos Gomez	.269	Carlos E Gonzalez	.289
274	John Buck	.292	Mike Cuddyer	.279	Cesar Izturis	.284	Blake Dewitt	.269	Jose Bautista	.269	Gary Matthews Jr.	.288
275	Alfredo Amezaga	.292	Carlos Gomez	.279	Aaron Hill	.284	Carlos Gomez	.268	Shin-soo Choo	.269	Michael Bourn	.287
276	Jeff Clement	.291	Tadahito Iguchi	.278	Paul Bako	.284	Cesar Izturis	.268	Aaron Hill	.268	Jeremy Hermida	.287
277	Adam Kennedy	.291	Daric Barton	.278	Brad Wilkerson	.284	Michael Bourn	.267	Mike Jacobs	.267	Eric Byrnes	.286
278	Shannon Stewart	.291	Geoff Blum	.276	Richie Sexson	.284	Matt Treanor	.266	Jason Michaels	.264	Aaron Miles	.286
279	Endy Chavez	.290	Mike Jacobs	.276	Kenji Johjima	.281	Andruw Jones	.266	Joey Votto	.264	Damion Easley	.285
280	Jack Hannahan	.289	Paul Bako	.275	Michael Bourn	.281	Ryan Sweeney	.266	Juan Uribe	.264	Jose Castillo	.285

Had to cut off the list at 280 to fit it in one post. That just chops off Melky and Molina from most of the lists, where they have both displayed consistent suckiness

--Posted at 3:07 pm by SG / 129 Comments | - (252)

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Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Yankee Offense, Pitching and Defense since the All Star Break Winning Streak

Remember that eight game winning streak after the All Star Break? Me either.

Anyway, here's how the Yankees have done over the 18 games since then.

Offense

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAA
Xavier Nady	17	62	10	21	5	0	6	17	2	3	16	0	0	2	.339	.388	.710	15	7.0
Johnny Damon	17	72	12	26	1	1	2	11	8	0	10	4	0	1	.361	.425	.486	14	5.4
Bobby Abreu	18	72	15	24	5	0	4	12	8	0	14	1	2	1	.333	.400	.569	14	5.3
Alex Rodriguez	18	66	14	17	5	0	6	9	8	4	17	1	1	6	.258	.372	.606	14	3.9
Jason Giambi	16	45	5	13	0	0	3	9	8	2	13	0	0	0	.289	.418	.489	9	3.3
Richie Sexson	14	21	2	6	1	0	1	4	3	0	7	0	0	0	.286	.375	.476	4	0.9
Jose Molina	12	31	7	8	1	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	.258	.324	.387	4	-0.4
Justin Christian	11	18	2	4	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	4	0	0	.222	.222	.278	2	-0.8
Chad Moeller	4	6	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	.167	.167	.167	0	-0.9
Ivan Rodriguez	11	27	5	7	1	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	0	2	.259	.286	.407	3	-1.2
Derek Jeter	17	65	6	18	2	0	1	10	8	0	13	2	1	4	.277	.347	.354	8	-1.4
Wilson Betemit	14	39	5	11	1	0	1	5	0	0	11	0	0	2	.282	.282	.385	3	-1.9
Robinson Cano	17	62	7	13	2	1	1	6	6	0	8	0	0	5	.210	.279	.323	5	-4.8
Melky Cabrera	17	45	5	8	0	1	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	1	.178	.213	.222	1	-5.4
Total	203	631	95	177	25	3	27	88	55	11	126	13	4	24	.281	.348	.458	95	8.9

BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAA: BR compared to average (not position-adjusted)

I know we like to pick on WOE, but overall they haven't been the biggest problem on the team, although the Melky and Cano two-headed monster of disappointment continues to be a problem. We have enough data that shows that Cano is better than this that I'm inclined to think this is just a blip season for him and we should expect better next year. How much better? Who knows? With Melky, the Yankees have to do something to upgrade CF next year. The free agent market is thin, so it may take a trade.

Xavier Nady has been very good, and that bodes well for next season. He's not this good, but he'll probably project to be better than he ever has been in the past. Bobby Abreu has been solid lately too, which will hopefully make him attractive to other teams in the offseason. I don't see the sense in the Yankees bringing him back with Nady around.

Pitching

Player	G	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	ERA	RA	FIP	RSAA
Daniel Giese	5	1	0	2	0	0	0	14.0	10	4	4	1	6	8	1	2.57	2.57	4.49	3.4
Mike Mussina	4	4	0	0	2	1	0	26.0	26	11	10	2	5	20	0	3.46	3.81	3.24	2.7
Jose Veras	8	0	0	3	1	0	0	8.3	6	2	2	2	2	12	2	2.16	2.16	4.88	2.4
Billy Traber	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	3.20	0.2
Mariano Rivera	6	0	0	5	0	1	2	5.7	7	3	3	2	1	4	0	4.76	4.76	6.91	0.0
Brian Bruney	6	0	0	2	0	0	0	5.3	5	3	3	0	5	5	0	5.06	5.06	4.14	-0.2
Sidney Ponson	4	4	0	0	1	2	0	25.0	25	14	14	3	8	8	1	5.04	5.04	5.20	-0.9
Christopher Britton	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3.7	7	3	3	1	0	1	0	7.36	7.36	6.20	-1.1
Joba Chamberlain	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	10.7	13	7	6	2	2	11	0	5.06	5.91	4.14	-1.4
Kyle Farnsworth	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	2	0	18.00	18.00	12.20	-1.5
Ian Kennedy	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	2.0	9	5	5	0	1	1	0	22.50	22.50	3.70	-3.9
Darrell Rasner	4	3	0	0	0	2	0	19.3	24	15	14	3	7	10	1	6.52	6.98	5.42	-4.8
Damaso Marte	8	0	0	1	0	2	0	7.0	9	9	9	1	5	10	0	11.57	11.57	4.34	-5.3
Edwar Ramirez	8	0	0	2	1	1	1	5.3	8	9	8	2	2	7	0	13.50	15.19	6.58	-6.2
David Robertson	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	7.0	11	11	11	2	6	10	0	14.14	14.14	6.63	-7.3
Andy Pettitte	3	3	0	0	0	2	0	17.3	27	17	17	3	8	12	0	8.83	8.83	5.45	-7.9
Total	67	18	0	17	6	12	3	158.0	190	115	111	25	58	121	5	6.32	6.55	4.92	-32.0

FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 times HR plus 3 times (BB + HBP) - 2 times SO)/IP + 3.2). Regresses BABIP to league average.

RSAA: Runs saved above average, using earned and unearned runs

The pitching staff has been really bad, although it's not entirely their fault as we will soon see.

Defense*

Player	Team	AL	Pos	G	GS	Ch	INN	PO	A	E	DP	ZR	PM	Avg PM	Diff	RS
Cabrera, Melky	NYY	AL	CF	14	10	28	92.7	26	0	0	0	.929	26	24	2	2
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	2B	2	2	6	16	2	6	1	1	1.000	6	5	1	1
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	1B	3	2	4	17.3	18	1	0	2	1.000	4	3	1	1
Christian, Justin	NYY	AL	CF	3	3	5	22.1	5	1	0	0	1.000	5	4	1	0
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	SS	4	1	9	18	4	9	0	3	.889	8	7	1	0
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	3B	2	2	6	18	0	5	0	1	.833	5	5	0	0
Nady, Xavier	NYY	AL	LF	10	10	21	87	18	2	0	0	.857	18	18	0	0
Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	CF	3	3	9	27	8	0	0	0	.889	8	8	0	0
Christian, Justin	NYY	AL	LF	3	1	3	11	2	0	0	0	.667	2	3	-1	0
Jeter, Derek	NYY	AL	SS	15	15	47	124	17	38	0	3	.809	38	39	-1	0
Nady, Xavier	NYY	AL	RF	2	2	5	17	4	0	0	0	.600	3	4	-1	-1
Sexson, Richie	NYY	AL	1B	11	3	8	44	44	2	0	3	.625	5	7	-2	-1
Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	LF	7	5	13	44	9	0	0	0	.692	9	11	-2	-2
Rodriguez, Alex	NYY	AL	3B	14	14	29	122	4	21	0	5	.690	20	22	-2	-2
Abreu, Bobby	NYY	AL	RF	14	14	46	122	38	1	0	0	.804	37	40	-3	-3
Giambi, Jason	NYY	AL	1B	11	11	17	80.7	72	4	0	6	.588	10	14	-4	-3
Cano, Robinson	NYY	AL	2B	15	14	60	126	29	43	3	9	.650	39	48	-9	-7
Total				133	112	316	988.8	300	133	4	33	.769	243	264	-21	-16

*Defensive numbers don't include today's debacle.

INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved

This is just a lost season for Cano on both sides of the ball. He now rates below average defensively according to zone rating. I am sure his offensive struggles aren't helping his defense.

Giambi and Abreu being bad on defense isn't exactly a surprise, although Damon and A-Rod were both having solid seasons until recently. There's some double-counting between the pitching and the defense here, but it's safe to assume the Yankees have been somewhere between 20-30 runs worse than average over this stretch. An average team would in theory go 9-9 over 18 games, although the split of 8 home games and 10 road games might make that 8-10 instead. So the Yankees 6-12 record is right in line with their overall crappy performance.

I'm pretty sure this road trip has knocked the Yankees out of playoff contention at this point, but maybe they've got one more good streak in them.

Baltimore Aquarium Contest
The Yankees are going to be in Baltimore next weekend and I've been offered a prize package to give to anyone who may be interested in attending any of the games by the Baltimore National Aquarium. The prize consists of:

- A family four-pack of tickets to the National Aquarium
- An overnight stay at one of three Harbor Magic Hotels

National Aquarium in Baltimore (501 East Pratt Street, Baltimore, Maryland, 21202)
The National Aquarium was rated #1 for all Baltimore things to do and is a favorite attraction among visitors to the area. Home to over 16,000 animals, the Aquarium features habitats from around the world including Animal Planet Australia: Wild Extremes, an exciting dolphin show and a new 4-D Immersion Theater. The Aquarium's location in Baltimore's Inner Harbor, which is in walking distance to the stadium, makes it easy to plan a visit before or after a game.
410-576-3800

www.aqua.org

Hotel (Three locations in downtown Baltimore)
Harbor Magic Hotels consist of three unique boutique hotels located in and around Baltimore's famous Inner Harbor. Each is delightfully different, yet all three are centered on delivering exceptional personalized visits that let you experience Baltimore as few others can.

866-583-4162

www.harbormagic.com

I'm going to offer the prize to whomever can answer the following question first. If no one answers by EOD tomorrow I'll just take the first email that expresses interest by EOD Friday

Who is the Yankees' career leader in runs saved by zone rating? (Note: Zone rating has only been tracked since 1987)

Just email me through the site if you are interested.

--Posted at 6:49 pm by SG / 145 Comments | - (280)

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Monday, August 11, 2008

Clutchness and the 2008 Yankees

In the previous thread, PhilRizzuto raised a question about how bad the Yankees have been hitting this year with runners in scoring position. I think anyone who's watched this team all season knows they've been bad even without looking at the numbers, but since I'm a stat dork, let's look at some stats.

First off, let's take a look at the 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. According to the aggregate of six different projection systems, the Yankees projected to score 924 runs this year. Losing Alex Rodriguez for a month and losing Jorge Posada obviously put a damper on that.

In addition, the run environment in the AL is down this year. Last year, AL teams averaged 4.93 runs per game and hit for a line of .271/.338/.423. This year they are averaging 4.71 runs per game and are hitting .266/.334/.416. So that's around a 4% reduction in run scoring. The standard deviation on the AL runs scored using last year's total of 11185 is 106 runs, so one standard deviation in either direction gives us 4.88 runs per game to 4.98 runs per game. Two standard deviations gives us 4.84 runs to 5.02 runs per game. So the lower AL scoring this season appears to be statistically significant.

Rank	Team	RF/G
1	Texas	5.61
2	Detroit	5.09
3	Chicago Sox	5.01
4	Boston	5.00
5	Minnesota	4.97
6	Baltimore	4.92
7	NY Yankees	4.82
8	LA Angels	4.73
9	Cleveland	4.66
10	Tampa Bay	4.61
11	Toronto	4.24
12	Kansas City	4.20
13	Seattle	4.12
14	Oakland	4.02

Still, the Yankees are 7th in the league in actual runs scored.

But what about the park factors you ask? Using a weighted average of 2006-2008, here's how the rankings would look (park factors from The 4 letter.com).

Rank	Team	PkAdj RF/G
1	Texas	5.39
2	Minnesota	5.30
3	Detroit	4.91
4	Tampa Bay	4.81
5	Chicago Sox	4.81
6	Boston	4.75
7	Baltimore	4.73
8	NY Yankees	4.66
9	LA Angels	4.61
10	Cleveland	4.60
11	Toronto	4.33
12	Seattle	4.26
13	Oakland	4.23
14	Kansas City	4.14

Either way, the Yankee offense has been mediocre this year, despite projecting to be one of the better ones in the league. They are on pace to score 781 runs, That's a falloff of almost 200 runs from last season.

According to linear weights, the context-independent batting events that the Yankee offense has accrued this year should total 586 runs. Using runs created instead of linear weights says they should have scored 598. So why have they only scored 568?

First of all, the Yankees have hit into what seems like a million double plays. The actual number is 109, which is the fourth highest total in the league. Adding those DPs into linear weights knocks the runs scored estimate down by 11 runs. But getting back to the clutch thing, The Hardball Times tracks a stat called 'clutch' coincidentally enough. Now the whole concept of clutch is murky and hard to define, so this is just one of probably a million different ways to measure it. Anyway, the definition of clutch they are using is based of the 2002 version of Bill James's runs created and is defined as:

Hits(with runners in scoring position) - (AB with RISP times BA) + HR(with runners on base) - (AB(with runners on base) times HR)/AB).

or


Clutch is expressed in terms of runs above and below average. Here's how the Yankees rate.

Tm	Clutch
MIN	37
LAA	35
BAL	27
OAK	22
KC	20
CHA	14
CLE	14
TEX	12
DET	-9
TOR	-11
SEA	-11
BOS	-15
TB	-18
NYA	-26

I know it's hard to believe, but yes, the Yankees are the unclutchest(is that a word?) team in the AL this year. Here are the individuals and their clutch rankings.

Last, First	Tm	Lg	Pos	Clutch
Damon, Johnny	NYA	AL	LF	7
Abreu, Bobby	NYA	AL	RF	4.5
Gardner, Brett	NYA	AL	LF	3.6
Christian, Justin	NYA	AL	LF	1.8
Matsui, Hideki	NYA	AL	DH	0.8
Sexson, Richie	NYA	AL	1B	0.5
Moeller, Chad	NYA	AL	C	0.4
Jeter, Derek	NYA	AL	SS	0.1
Stewart, Chris D	NYA	AL	C	0
Duncan, Shelley	NYA	AL	1B	-0.3
Posada, Jorge	NYA	AL	C	-1.2
Gonzalez, Alberto R	NYA	AL	SS	-1.3
Ensberg, Morgan	NYA	AL	3B	-1.6
Cano, Robinson	NYA	AL	2B	-1.7
Nady, Xavier	NYA	AL	LF	-2.1
Molina, Jose	NYA	AL	C	-3.5
Betemit, Wilson	NYA	AL	1B	-3.9
Rodriguez, Ivan	NYA	AL	C	-5.3
Cabrera, Melky	NYA	AL	CF	-5.5
Giambi, Jason	NYA	AL	1B	-10.3
Rodriguez, Alex	NYA	AL	3B	-13.2

Now I'm not really going to get into the whole clutch hitting as a skill thing here. Well, maybe just for a second. This is not a measure of a player's clutch skill/ability, it's a measure of their value in the current season. Last year, Alex Rodriguez's clutch rating was +9.8. Did Madonna make him unclutch? In 2006 it was +3.2, in 2005 it -8.8.

It's definitely a problem when your two best offensive players aren't hitting with runners in scoring position though. And how the hell is Pudge -5.3 already? He's only played in like 5 games.

If we add those clutch values to the players' position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level here's how the players rank.

Last, First	Tm	Lg	Pos	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	pBRAR	Clutch	Total
Damon, Johnny	NYA	AL	LF	443	.322	.392	.459	26.9	7	33.9
Rodriguez, Alex	NYA	AL	3B	420	.315	.402	.599	45.4	-13.2	32.2
Abreu, Bobby	NYA	AL	RF	500	.287	.358	.467	19.2	4.5	23.7
Giambi, Jason	NYA	AL	1B	397	.252	.393	.517	29.5	-10.3	19.2
Jeter, Derek	NYA	AL	SS	499	.283	.346	.398	18.9	0.1	19.0
Matsui, Hideki	NYA	AL	DH	285	.323	.404	.458	14.5	0.8	15.3
Posada, Jorge	NYA	AL	C	195	.268	.364	.411	8.6	-1.2	7.4
Nady, Xavier	NYA	AL	LF	58	.365	.431	.731	8.0	-2.1	5.9
Christian, Justin	NYA	AL	LF	39	.278	.333	.361	1.0	1.8	2.8
Sexson, Richie	NYA	AL	1B	30	.292	.400	.458	1.7	0.5	2.2
Moeller, Chad	NYA	AL	C	84	.227	.310	.333	0.4	0.4	0.8
Stewart, Chris D	NYA	AL	C	3	.000	.000	.000	-0.7	0	-0.7
Gardner, Brett	NYA	AL	LF	68	.153	.227	.169	-4.8	3.6	-1.2
Duncan, Shelley	NYA	AL	1B	65	.175	.262	.281	-2.9	-0.3	-3.2
Cano, Robinson	NYA	AL	2B	461	.263	.300	.397	-3.1	-1.7	-4.8
Rodriguez, Ivan	NYA	AL	C	19	.278	.316	.444	0.2	-5.3	-5.1
Gonzalez, Alberto R	NYA	AL	SS	58	.173	.232	.212	-3.9	-1.3	-5.2
Betemit, Wilson	NYA	AL	1B	153	.253	.276	.411	-2.2	-3.9	-6.1
Ensberg, Morgan	NYA	AL	3B	80	.203	.263	.243	-5.1	-1.6	-6.7
Molina, Jose	NYA	AL	C	237	.230	.278	.315	-4.1	-3.5	-7.6
Cabrera, Melky	NYA	AL	CF	435	.245	.299	.341	-7.9	-5.5	-13.4

Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi's clutch performances hurt their value, but they still have been valuable this year, just not as valuable as the raw numbers may show. Johnny Popup isn't a bad player, but if he's your most valuable offensive performer you probably have issues. And boy, does Melky stink.

Do I think clutch hitters exist? Not really, but I do think unclutch hitters can exist, and I do think pressure can have some impact, although it's my opinion that it's not nearly as big of a deal as it's made out to be by the mass media. Also, this is just one definition of clutch, a different definiton may show something totally different, so keep that in mind.

So yeah, the 2008 Yankees have been unclutch by this measure. I'm guessing you didn't need a blog entry to know that though.

--Posted at 9:25 am by SG / 67 Comments | - (283)

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Saturday, August 2, 2008

Yankee Stats for Offense, Pitching and Defense - July 27 - August 1, 2008

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA
Bobby Abreu	22	7	9	4	0	3	7	4	0	4	1	0	0	.409	.500	1.000	11
Alex Rodriguez	22	4	7	2	0	2	3	2	2	5	0	0	0	.318	.423	.682	7
Xavier Nady	15	5	5	2	0	2	4	1	1	4	0	0	1	.333	.412	.867	5
Johnny Damon	23	3	8	0	0	1	6	4	0	4	1	0	0	.348	.444	.478	5
Richie Sexson	8	1	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	.500	.556	.500	2
Jose Molina	9	2	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	.333	.455	.444	2
Derek Jeter	22	2	5	1	0	0	2	3	0	5	1	0	2	.227	.320	.273	2
Melky Cabrera	22	4	5	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	.227	.261	.318	2
Jason Giambi	18	1	5	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	0	0	0	.278	.278	.278	1
Wilson Betemit	12	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	1
Justin Christian	3	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	.333	.333	.333	0
Ivan Rodriguez	6	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	.167	.167	.167	0
Chad Moeller	6	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	.167	.167	.167	0
Robinson Cano	26	1	3	1	0	0	2	0	0	4	0	0	1	.115	.115	.154	-3
Total	214	31	60	11	1	8	28	17	4	45	4	0	6	.280	.345	.453	36

BRAA: Batting runs above average using linear weights (not position-adjusted)

So much for Cano's hot streak...

Player	G	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	ERA	FIP	K9	BB9	HR9	RSAA	FRSAA
Joba Chamberlain	1	1	0	6.0	5	2	1	0	0	6	0	1.50	1.73	9.0	0.0	0.0	2	2
Jose Veras	2	0	0	2.0	2	0	0	0	0	4	1	0.00	2.30	18.0	0.0	0.0	1	0
Edwar Ramirez	2	0	0	0.7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	8.00	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	0
Daniel Giese	2	0	0	5.0	5	2	2	0	1	0	0	3.60	4.44	0.0	1.8	0.0	0	0
Damaso Marte	3	0	0	3.0	4	2	2	0	1	5	0	6.00	1.93	15.0	3.0	0.0	-1	1
Mariano Rivera	2	0	1	2.0	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	9.00	11.80	4.5	4.5	4.5	-1	-2
Darrell Rasner	1	0	1	6.0	8	4	4	1	3	1	1	6.00	7.57	1.5	4.5	1.5	-1	-2
Christopher Britton	1	0	0	3.7	7	3	3	1	0	1	0	7.36	7.07	2.5	0.0	2.5	-1	-1
Kyle Farnsworth	1	0	0	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	2	0	18.00	15.40	18.0	0.0	9.0	-2	-1
Sidney Ponson	2	0	1	11.0	12	7	7	1	5	2	0	5.73	5.67	1.6	4.1	0.8	-2	-2
Mike Mussina	1	0	1	5.0	8	6	6	2	1	4	0	10.80	8.04	7.2	1.8	3.6	-4	-2
David Robertson	2	0	0	2.3	5	6	6	2	3	3	0	23.14	17.00	11.6	11.6	7.7	-5	-3
Andy Pettitte	1	0	1	5.3	11	9	9	2	3	4	0	15.19	8.86	6.8	5.1	3.4	-7	-3
Total	21	1	5	53	72	45	44	11	18	33	2	7.47	5.85	5.6	3.1	1.9	-20	-14

FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA
RSAA: Runs saved above average
FRSAA: RSAA using FIP

There's Joba, Veras and then a bunch of suck.

Player	Team	Lg	Pos	G	INN	Ch	PM	ZR	Avg PM	Diff	RS
Cabrera, Melky	NYY	AL	C	5	45	14	13	.929	12	1	1
Jeter, Derek	NYY	AL	RF	5	40	14	12	.857	11	1	0
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	3B	1	9	2	2	1.000	2	0	0
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	SS	2	5	2	2	1.000	2	0	0
Nady, Xavier	NYY	AL	RF	1	9	2	2	1.000	2	0	0
Christian, Justin	NYY	AL	LF	1	2	1	1	1.000	1	0	0
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	1B	1	9	1	1	1.000	1	0	0
Rodriguez, Alex	NYY	AL	2B	4	34	5	4	.800	4	0	0
Nady, Xavier	NYY	AL	LF	2	18	5	4	.800	4	0	0
Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	CF	3	25	9	7	.778	7	0	0
Sexson, Richie	NYY	AL	1B	3	7	1	0	.000	1	-1	-1
Giambi, Jason	NYY	AL	Pos	4	29	6	4	.667	5	-1	-1
Abreu, Bobby	NYY	AL	LF	4	33	23	19	.826	20	-1	-1
Cano, Robinson	NYY	AL	1B	5	45	20	9	.450	16	-7	-5
Total				41	310	105	80	.762	89	-9	-7

INN: Defensive innings at position
Ch: Fieldable chances
PM: Plays made
ZR: Zone rating (PM / Ch)
Avg PM Plays made by an average defender at the same position
Diff: PM - Avg PM
RS: Runs saved (Diff time run value of a play not made at the position)

And WTF is up with Cano's glove now?

--Posted at 11:35 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (210)

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Sunday, July 27, 2008

Top MLB hitters Since the 2008 All Star Break

Rk	Player	G	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
1	Ryan J Braun	9	37	6	16	2	3	4	12	3	5	1	0	0	.432	.465	.973	13.1
2	Carlos Delgado	9	34	7	14	2	0	5	14	7	4	0	0	1	.412	.523	.912	12.9
3	Matt Holliday	9	34	10	14	4	0	3	9	6	3	1	0	0	.412	.512	.794	11.4
4	Conor Jackson	8	33	10	16	2	1	3	7	4	5	1	0	1	.485	.541	.879	11.4
5	Adam LaRoche	10	37	7	14	3	0	4	8	5	9	0	0	0	.378	.452	.784	10.8
6	Brad Hawpe	9	40	7	17	4	0	3	10	2	11	0	0	0	.425	.452	.750	10.7
7	David Wright	9	35	11	13	3	0	2	10	10	5	2	0	0	.371	.500	.629	10.7
8	Jeff Baker	8	31	11	15	3	1	2	5	4	6	2	0	2	.484	.543	.839	10.6
9	Melvin Mora	10	39	7	15	3	0	4	15	2	1	0	1	0	.385	.442	.769	10.5
10	Robinson Cano	8	35	6	18	3	0	3	10	1	2	0	1	2	.514	.528	.857	10.4
11	Carlos Quentin	8	29	11	10	1	0	5	8	5	5	0	0	3	.345	.472	.897	9.8
12	Alex Rodriguez	8	30	8	13	3	0	2	9	5	6	2	0	0	.433	.514	.733	9.8
13	Adrian Gonzalez	10	37	6	13	4	0	3	11	5	5	0	0	2	.351	.429	.703	9.5
14	Luke Scott	10	30	5	10	3	0	4	10	6	7	0	0	1	.333	.432	.833	9.4
15	Troy Glaus	10	40	8	12	4	0	3	10	6	9	0	0	0	.300	.391	.625	9.1
16	Mark Teixeira	8	28	8	10	2	0	3	8	8	5	0	0	1	.357	.500	.750	9.0
17	Ken Griffey Jr.	9	33	6	11	4	1	2	6	5	5	0	0	0	.333	.436	.697	8.9
18	Jeremy Hermida	9	29	7	9	1	0	5	5	3	9	1	0	0	.310	.394	.862	8.8
19	Alexis Rios	9	40	7	12	4	0	4	8	1	6	4	1	2	.300	.310	.700	8.7
20	Edwin Encarnacion	9	30	7	9	1	0	4	7	7	5	0	0	2	.300	.447	.733	8.7

BR: Batting runs by linear weights(not position-adjusted or compared to average)

And here's how just the Yankees have done since the ASB.

Player	G	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Robinson Cano	8	35	6	18	3	0	3	10	1	2	0	1	2	.514	.528	.857	10.4
Alex Rodriguez	8	30	8	13	3	0	2	9	5	6	2	0	0	.433	.514	.733	9.8
Bobby Abreu	8	32	9	11	3	0	1	7	5	3	1	1	1	.344	.432	.531	6.5
Derek Jeter	8	37	7	11	4	0	1	5	3	6	0	0	0	.297	.350	.486	6.0
Xavier Nady	8	25	8	10	2	0	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	.400	.464	.600	5.5
Jason Giambi	6	17	1	4	0	0	1	4	9	8	0	0	0	.235	.500	.412	4.5
Melky Cabrera	8	33	4	11	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	1	.333	.353	.394	3.8
Wilson Betemit	5	9	1	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	.333	.400	.444	1.5
Justin Christian	4	4	1	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	1	1	0	.500	.600	.750	1.3
Richie Sexson	8	7	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	1	.143	.364	.143	0.8
Brett Gardner	6	23	2	3	1	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	.130	.167	.174	0.1
Total	77	252	47	87	20	0	9	43	32	43	5	5	5	.307	.397	.461	50.3

--Posted at 9:56 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (220)

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Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Yankee Defense by Zone Rating through May 18, 2008

Player	Pos	G	INN	PO	A	E	DP	Ch	ZR	Avg ZR	PM	AvgPM	Diff	RS	RS/162
Giambi, Jason	1B	31	268.2	296	13	2	26	59	.814	.867	48	51	-3	-3	-14
Duncan, Shelley	1B	8	63	59	3	1	5	8	1.000	.867	8	7	1	1	19
Ensberg, Morgan	1B	6	34	38	0	0	1	4	1.000	.867	4	3	1	0	18
Betemit, Wilson	1B	2	11	12	1	0	1	2	1.000	.867	2	2	0	0	28
Posada, Jorge	1B	1	8	7	0	0	1	3	.667	.867	2	3	-1	0	-86
Damon, Johnny	1B	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.867	0	0	0	0	0
Cano, Robinson	2B	43	364.2	86	140	4	32	151	.841	.829	127	125	2	1	5
Gonzalez, Alberto	2B	3	21	3	6	0	1	9	.778	.829	7	7	0	0	-24
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	21	178	15	47	2	6	56	.893	.800	50	45	5	4	34
Ensberg, Morgan	3B	17	124	8	30	1	2	45	.689	.800	31	36	-5	-4	-47
Gonzalez, Alberto	3B	10	53.2	5	11	1	2	14	.857	.800	12	11	1	1	17
Betemit, Wilson	3B	5	30	3	9	1	2	15	.667	.800	10	12	-2	-2	-77
Cabrera, Melky	CF	42	352.2	98	2	1	0	107	.907	.901	97	96	1	0	2
Damon, Johnny	CF	4	33	5	0	0	0	7	.714	.901	5	6	-1	-1	-48
Damon, Johnny	LF	33	272.1	60	0	0	0	65	.892	.846	58	55	3	2	13
Matsui, Hideki	LF	14	113.1	27	1	1	0	36	.694	.846	25	30	-5	-5	-58
Abreu, Bobby	RF	42	353.2	77	4	1	1	94	.830	.867	78	81	-3	-3	-12
Matsui, Hideki	RF	3	18	2	0	0	0	2	1.000	.867	2	2	0	0	18
Duncan, Shelley	RF	3	14	2	0	0	0	2	1.000	.867	2	2	0	0	23
Jeter, Derek	SS	38	328.2	45	95	4	19	113	.796	.837	90	95	-5	-3	-15
Gonzalez, Alberto	SS	5	41	10	14	0	2	12	1.000	.837	12	10	2	1	52
Betemit, Wilson	SS	3	16	2	6	0	1	6	.833	.837	5	5	0	0	-2

Pos: Position
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games

--Posted at 7:02 am by SG / 41 Comments | - (410)

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

Why The Yankees Are Losing

The chart below shows the Yankees' average projections pro-rated to their actual playing time this season on the left. On the right are the actual YTD performance.

Team	NYA		Proj						Actual
Starters	POS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		Diff
Jorge Posada	C	66	.293	.392	.499	11		66	.302	.333	.476	9		-2
Jason Giambi	1B	139	.256	.399	.499	23		139	.193	.345	.468	19		-3
Robinson Cano	2B	164	.312	.347	.489	24		164	.208	.256	.318	10		-13
Alex Rodriguez	3B	99	.300	.402	.569	18		99	.286	.343	.495	15		-4
Derek Jeter	SS	163	.318	.388	.463	25		163	.314	.346	.431	20		-5
Johnny Damon	LF	175	.286	.357	.438	24		175	.257	.341	.454	24		0
Melky Cabrera	CF	158	.281	.341	.403	19		158	.262	.325	.426	19		0
Bobby Abreu	RF	176	.284	.392	.461	28		176	.288	.352	.450	23		-5
Hideki Matsui	DH	163	.291	.370	.489	25		163	.306	.387	.458	24		-1
Starters Total		1303	.292	.373	.471	197		1303	.287	.336	.436	163		-34
Bench	POS	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		Diff
Shelley Duncan	1B	41	.257	.322	.480	6		41	.194	.293	.250	3		-3
Chad Moeller	C	41	.231	.287	.373	4		41	.243	.317	.378	4		0
Alberto Gonzalez	SS	41	.250	.300	.351	4		41	.257	.333	.314	4		0
Jose Molina	C	84	.250	.287	.375	8		84	.203	.220	.304	5		-4
Chris Stewart	C	3	.250	.300	.375	0		3	.000	.000	.000	0		-1
Morgan Ensberg	3B	76	.261	.368	.467	11		76	.214	.276	.257	4		-7
Wilson Betemit	SS	27	.265	.338	.443	4		27	.269	.296	.462	3		0
Bench Total		313	.256	.316	.410	36		313	.233	.275	.308	22		-14
Team Total		1616	.285	.362	.459	233		1616	.258	.325	.410	186		-48

BR here are batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average). Apart from Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera, every Yankee starter has provided less offense than projected and overall the starters are 34 runs below their expectations. The bench has also significantly underperformed to the tune of 14 runs below expectations.

The Yankees are 48 runs below expectations even accounting for the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. That's five wins, and it at least partially explains why they are 20-23. If the offense had played as expected, they'd be 25-18, which is a 94 win pace and right around where they should have been. Offense is down in the AL by around 11% this season, but the Yankees are scoring 20% less frequently than expected so that's not the whole explanation.

The pitching and defense have not been the problem. The defense is below average but it was supposed to be. The pitching staff has been a little worse than average, but not egregiously so (-2 runs saved above average). It's the lack of offense that's killing this team. Unfortunately, I don't see any moves that can be done to fix that.

--Posted at 2:04 pm by SG / 9 Comments | - (353)

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Monday, April 21, 2008

April 21 - Yankee Offense Projections vs. Actuals

So the team that I projected to score around 930 runs this year is on pace to score 689, which would rank ninth in the AL if things held up. Here's a look at each player's contributions to that.

Player	pAVG	pOBP	pSLG	pBR	aAVG	aOBP	aSLG	aBR	Brdiff
Jose Molina	.243	.280	.360	3	.333	.333	.528	6	3
Chad Moeller	.225	.299	.348	2	.350	.435	.600	5	3
Hideki Matsui	.287	.367	.477	11	.323	.405	.523	13	2
Melky Cabrera	.282	.344	.406	8	.281	.353	.456	10	1
Alberto Gonzalez	.253	.301	.348	2	.333	.400	.467	3	1
Morgan Ensberg	.248	.365	.446	3	.333	.333	.500	3	0
Shelley Duncan	.243	.311	.453	1	.200	.200	.200	0	-1
Johnny Damon	.280	.353	.423	11	.215	.333	.400	10	-1
Bobby Abreu	.277	.383	.439	12	.306	.367	.458	11	-1
Alex Rodriguez	.300	.406	.574	16	.308	.357	.551	14	-1
Wilson Betemit	.258	.333	.445	2	.154	.214	.154	0	-2
Derek Jeter	.307	.379	.438	8	.309	.339	.418	7	-2
Jorge Posada	.286	.380	.469	7	.261	.306	.391	5	-2
Jason Giambi	.245	.387	.474	9	.109	.288	.283	5	-4
Robinson Cano	.308	.348	.482	12	.169	.200	.234	2	-9
Total	.280	.362	.453	107	.265	.331	.425	93	-13

pAVG: Projected batting average
pOBP: Projected on base percentage
pSLG: Projected slugging average
pBR: Projected batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
aAVG: Actual batting average
aOBP: Actual on base percentage
aSLG: Actual slugging average
aBR: Actual batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
Brdiff: Difference between projected batting runs and actual, pro-rated to actual playing time

There are some rounding issues in the table above so if things don't seem to add up here, trust me, they actually do in Excel. The batting runs are adjusted for actual playing time so it's a direct comparison, but no position-adjusment is included. The Yankee offense theoretically should have scored 13 fewer runs than you'd expect given the allocation of playing time and the players' projections on offense. They're actually even worse than that at 85 runs, thanks to poor hitting in the clutch primarily.

God bless Molino and Moello, or they'd be six runs worse than that. Add in the pitching staff, which has the fifth worst RA in the AL at 4.82 and has saved five fewer runs than average, and you have a 23 run deficit, which is about 2.3 wins. Not coincidentally, they sit 10-10 while log5 says they should have expected to be 11.6 - 8.4 to this point.

For all the crap Giambi's been getting, Cano is the single biggest problem on this team. He's been so bad offensively that even with the +1 defense he's played so far, his overall "value" to the team is -8 runs. Let's hope for a heat wave soon.

--Posted at 8:37 pm by SG / 34 Comments | - (384)

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Friday, April 11, 2008

Worst Offense Ever Takes a Night Off

In a shocking turn of events, the Yankees managed to score a decent number of runs last night, beating the Royals 6-1. Granted, two of the runs came in the ninth inning against Hideo Nomo, who I could have sworn has been retired for a few years, but it was still good to see. Jorge Posada's HR was especially nice considering the way he has started the season off with his injury and ineffectiveness.

More important than the offensive outburst was Andy Pettitte's good pitching. Pettitte went six and two-thirds innings and allowed just one run and five hits. The Yankees really need Pettitte and Wang to do what they are projected to do this season if they want to have a shot at the postseason. it was still a save situation when Pettitte was pulled so Joba Chamberlain pitched the end of the seventh as well as the eighth. I like seeing Joba pitch more than one inning because I still think he should end up in the rotation. Mariano Rivera came in to pitch the ninth despite the Yankees adding a couple of runs, which was fine, he hadn't pitched for a few days and was already warmed up anyway. One thing that I noticed last night is Mo was throwing a lot of two-seamers. I'd like to see him continue to do that.

Now comes three games against some .500 team. Your pitching matchups for the weekend:

Friday April 11: C. Wang (2-0,1.38) vs. C. Buchholz (0-1,5.40)
Saturday April 12: M. Mussina (1-1,3.09) vs. J. Beckett (0-1,9.64)
Sunday April 13: P. Hughes (0-1,5.00) vs. D. Matsuzaka (2-0,1.47)

I hate these series, mainly because of the ridiculous hype certain media outlets try to give these games. It's an interesting set of matchups. Wang makes his first road start of the year and the Yankees haven't seen Buccholz before, so hopefully he doesn't no-hit them. Beckett's still working his way back to full strength but Moose is going to have to try to trick one of the better lineups in baseball, and who knows what either Hughes or Matsuzaka will bring on Sunday night?

Since I don't know how long this will last, here's an early meaningless and small sample size look at how the Yankee defense has performed according to zone rating so far this season.

Player	Pos	G	INN	Ch	ZR	PM	AvgPM	Diff	RS	RS/162
Giambi, Jason	1B	6	43	11	.818	9	10	-1	0	-15
Ensberg, Morgan	1B	3	17	3	1.000	3	3	0	0	26
Betemit, Wilson	1B	2	11	2	1.000	2	2	0	0	27
Duncan, Shelley	1B	1	9	0	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Cano, Robinson	2B	10	88	43	.837	36	36	0	0	6
Rodriguez, Alex	3B	10	87	29	.931	27	23	4	3	50
Betemit, Wilson	3B	1	1	0	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Molina, Jose	C	7	55	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	4
Posada, Jorge	C	4	33	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	7
Cabrera, Melky	CF	8	70	21	.810	17	19	-2	-2	-31
Damon, Johnny	CF	2	18	3	1.000	3	3	0	0	21
Damon, Johnny	LF	6	53	9	1.000	9	8	1	1	28
Matsui, Hideki	LF	3	27	7	.571	4	6	-2	-2	-90
Abreu, Bobby	RF	8	70	10	.900	9	9	0	0	2
Matsui, Hideki	RF	1	9	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	15
Duncan, Shelley	RF	1	1	1	1.000	1	1	0	0	137
Jeter, Derek	SS	7	56	26	.731	19	22	-3	-2	-54
Gonzalez, Alberto	SS	2	17	5	1.000	5	4	1	1	52
Betemit, Wilson	SS	2	15	5	1.000	5	4	1	1	58
Total		84	680	178	.854	152	150	2	1	21

INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games

Melky's had some tough chances so I wouldn't pay much heed to his numbers yet, but I think Hideki Matsui needs to be kept out of the outfield whenever possible. For those of you thinking Alex Rodriguez is playing Gold Glove caliber defense this year, you're right.

In bad news down on the farm, Alan Horne suffered some kind of injury in his start last night and will have an MRI today. Let's hope for good news there.

--Posted at 7:58 am by SG / 40 Comments | - (409)

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Thursday, April 10, 2008

Oh Where, Oh Where Has My Little Offense Gone?

While my head knows that nine games is still way too small of a sample size to draw undue distinctions from, it sure didn’t feel like it while I watched the again punchless Yankees fall to Kansas City 4-0 last night.  Granted, sometimes you run into a Roy Halladay.  Sometimes you run into A.J. Burnett. Sometimes you run into Dustin McGowan. Sometimes you run into   Andy Sonnastine. Sometimes you run into Edwin Jackson.  Sometimes you run into James Shields.  Sometimes you run into Jason Hammel.  Sometimes you run into Brian Bannister.  Sometimes you run into Zach Greinke.  But come on, ALL NINE OF THEM?

With a forecast of rain all night, Joe Girardi pulled Ian Kennedy from starting the game and went with Brian Bruney to start the game.  The reason given was so that they wouldn’t start the game with Kennedy and then lose him if the rain stopped the game.  Considering the grief Girardi got for bringing back Josh Johnson from a long rain delay when he managed the Marlins in 2006 and Johnson’s subsequent breakdown which may or not have been related, this was pretty interesting out of the box thinking.  For the most part it seemed to work well, although it likely cost the Yankees the use of Bruney and Farnsworth in today’s game.  That’s probably bad in the former case but not necessarily so in the latter case.  Kennedy ended up pitching the 6th through 8th, starting off poorly but finishing off pretty well.

The pitching didn’t really matter because the offense continued to stink.  Here’s how the Yankees rate by position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights to this point.

Matsui : 2
Abreu : 1.5
Rodriguez : 0.7
Molina : 0.3
Gonzalez : 0.2
Cabrera : 0.1
Ensberg : -0.5
Damon : -0.5
Duncan : -0.5
Betemit : -1
Jeter : -1.5
Posada : -1.9
Giambi : -2.4
Cano : -4.4

How is Damon not worse?  Hey Robinson, feel free to stop sucking.  How bad has Cano been?  Here are the five worst offensive players so far in the AL this season by position-adjusted BRAA:

Crawford : -4.3
Johjima : -4.3
Ortiz : -4.3
Cano : -4.4
Polanco : -4.6

Only Placido Polanco has been worse.  He’s in good company with David Ortiz and Carl Crawford at least.

Like I said, it’s still too early to panic, but it’s probably not too early to get irritated or annoyed.

--Posted at 7:53 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (371)

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Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Kansas City Here We Come

Behind Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina the Yankees took the final game of their series with Tampa last night, 6-1., salvaging a series split after losing the first two games.  Moose was brilliant, allowing just two hits and one run over six innings.  Tampa doesn’t look to have a great offense this season, but they are probably middle of the pack and have some dangerous players in the lineup, so this was a very encouraging outing.  Moose’s fastball sat around 85 most of the night, but he had a great slow curve going that helped him keep the Rays off balance.  I feel a little more comfortable that Mussina will be serviceable after this game than I did after his first start.

Abreu started the offense off with a two-run HR in the first inning, one of his three hits and a walk on the night.  Hideki Matsui also chipped in a couple of hits.

The news wasn’t all good as Derek Jeter left the game with a strained quad and is being listed as day-to-day.  While losing Jeter hurts, it shouldn’t be for too long.  Also, having Wilson Betemit to replace him instead of my beloved Miguel Cairo makes it sting a little less.  With Jason Giambi seemingly unavailable this looks like Morgan Ensberg’s chance for some PT.  He hasn’t looked good at scooping throws at first although he seems pretty good at fielding batted balls. 

LaTroy Hawkins finally pitched a full scoreless inning as a Yankee.  I’m willing to give Hawkins a bit of a long leash because he has a long track record of being useful and he seems like a good guy, as well as our experience with Luis Vizcaino last year.  It seems like the fans at the Stadium don’t care about that because he’s had the audacity to wear Paul O’Neill’s number.  Hopefully he can get himself sorted out.

Next up, a three game set with the Kansas City Royals.  They’re 4-2 and in second place in the AL Central. 

To hammer home how early it is, here’s how the final AL standings would look if each team played to their PythagenPat record for the rest of the season.

AL East
TOR 121-41
BAL 98-64
TB 94-68
NYA 65-97
BOS 57-105

AL Central
CHA 105-57
KC 101-61
CLE 78-84
MIN 57-105
DET 26-136

AL West
TEX 94-68
OAK 90-72
LAA 84-78
SEA 76-86

Somewhere Steve Phillips is weeping.

--Posted at 8:05 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (384)

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Saturday, March 8, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - Position Player Wrapup

So now that I've gone through the position players, it's time to close out what the outlook is on a team level. To do that I've built depth charts on offense and defense which we can use as a rough gauge,

Offensively, there's little question that the Yankees are probably the most talented team in baseball. The one question that could impact that is the health of their regulars given their ages. Projections of single players are for the most part objective, but when we try to roll them up into a team-wide performance we will run into subjective issues with playing time, so keep that in mind.

This is my projected lineup for the Yankees this year. I am basing the playing time on their projected playing time with some downward adjustments for potential injuries. I am allocating total playing time based on expected outs by each player, with the assumption that the team will have 27 outs per game minus about 80 outs to account for ninth innings in home victories, so a total of 4294 outs. I didn't subtract more outs than that to account for extra innings.

The projections below are the average of five systems (CHONE, MARCEL, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO). The last column (BR) is batting runs by linear weights. There are no position adjustments or comparisons to average in the batting runs calculated here, since I am looking for a total number.

Starters	POS	AVG	OBP	SLG	PA	Outs	BR
Johnny Damon	LF	.280	.353	.423	585	379	78
Derek Jeter	SS	.307	.379	.438	600	373	86
Bobby Abreu	RF	.277	.383	.439	600	370	89
Alex Rodriguez	3B	.300	.406	.574	650	386	123
Jason Giambi	1B	.245	.387	.474	300	184	46
Jorge Posada	C	.286	.380	.469	500	310	76
Hideki Matsui	DH	.287	.367	.477	500	316	74
Robinson Cano	2B	.308	.348	.482	585	381	84
Melky Cabrera	CF	.282	.344	.406	550	361	68
Starters Total		.289	.372	.465	4870	3060	724

I can't account for the event of catastrophic injury here, so I tried to spread the injury risk among everyone with the exception of Giambi, who I'm assuming will be restricted to around 300 plate appearances. Outs are just calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA.

Here's how the bench looks.

Bench	POS	AVG	OBP	SLG	PA	Outs	BR
Wilson Betemit	3B	.258	.333	.445	350	233	46
Morgan Ensberg	1B	.248	.365	.446	290	184	40
Jose Molina	C	.243	.280	.360	250	180	23
Shelley Duncan	1B	.243	.311	.453	250	172	32
Brett Gardner	OF	.253	.325	.327	150	101	15
Alberto Gonzalez	SS	.253	.301	.348	140	98	13
Nick Green	UT	.246	.308	.397	129	89	14
Jason Lane	OF	.235	.311	.414	127	87	15
Chris Woodward	UT	.234	.294	.339	125	88	11
Bench Total		.247	.312	.404	1811	1234	209

I have no idea if any of Jason Lane, Nick Green or Chris Woodward will see any playing time but I figure they will be stashed at Scranton so there's at least some possibility of it. What should be obvious is that the Yankees have two potentially strong bench players in Betemit and Ensberg, who both project well enough to be starters at their respective positions. That helps mitigate any potential injuries in the infield with Betemit's ability to cover any position and with Ensberg presumably able to cover 3B and 1B.

Add it up, and here's what you get.

Team Total	AVG	OBP	SLG	PA	Outs	BR
Starters + Bench	.277	.355	.448	6681	4294	933

The sigma on a team's runs scored in a season is around 30, so that puts the Yankees in a range of 903-963 runs scored this year on paper using the projections I'm using and the playing time assumptions I'm using.

Looking at baserunning using Lee Panas's bases gained above average, here's how the players that Lee had data for did last year:

Player	Team	BGAA Hits	BGAA Ground	BGAA Air	BGAA Other	BGAA Total
Damon	NYA	3.7	2.3	12.3	15.3	33.6
Rodriguez	NYA	11.8	2.7	2.5	11.1	28.1
Abreu	NYA	1.1	1.2	5.7	0.7	8.7
Jeter	NYA	9	-3.6	1.3	-3	3.7
Matsui	NYA	4.5	1.5	-2.3	-2.8	0.9
Cabrera	NYA	4.9	2.6	-6.9	-1.4	-0.8
Cano	NYA	4.6	6	-5.3	-8.7	-3.4
Giambi	NYA	-9.1	0.5	-1	-0.6	-10.3
Posada	NYA	-7.5	-5	-5.1	-0.6	-18.2
Ensberg	NYA	-6.3	2.8	-2.4	-0.2	-6.1
		16.7	11	-1.2	9.8	36.2

A team total of 36 would be worth an additional 10 runs, but we should regress that towards average since we only have one year of data. Let's assume the Yankees will be about 5 runs better than average on the bases this year.

So we've got 933 runs at the plate and another 5 on the bases, but unfortunately, we're not quite done yet.

Projecting defense is tricky, but I'm going to take a stab at it anyway. Using zone rating projections and defensive depth charts, here's how that looks.

First up, the expected starters. A full season is about 1450 defensive innings.

Starters	POS	Inn	Proj CH	Proj ZR	Proj PM	Avg ZR	Avg PM	PMAA	RSAA
Jason Giambi	1B	500	96	.796	77	.841	81	-4	-3
Robinson Cano	2B	1300	479	.833	399	.823	394	5	4
Alex Rodriguez	3B	1300	392	.758	298	.761	298	-1	-1
Derek Jeter	SS	1300	487	.806	392	.825	402	-9	-7
Johnny Damon	LF	1000	257	.869	223	.862	222	2	1
Melky Cabrera	CF	1100	361	.898	324	.885	320	5	4
Bobby Abreu	RF	1300	325	.864	280	.868	282	-1	-1
Total		13050	2397		1993		1999	-5	-4

POS: Position
Inn: Defensive innings
Proj CH: Projected chances
Proj ZR: Projected zone rating
Proj PM: Projected plays made
Avg ZR: Average projected ZR at POS
Avg PM: Average plays made
PMAA: Plays made above average
RSAA: Runs saved above average

That looks like the best defensive team the Yankees have run out there in a while, with only Giambi and Jeter as big minuses. In Giambi's case he probably won't play enough to really hurt the team, and in Jeter's case the more he plays the more he bats so I guess it's not really all that bad.

Filling in the remaining innings with bench guys, here's what I get.

Bench	POS	Inn	Proj CH	Proj ZR	Proj PM	Avg ZR	Avg PM	PMAA	RSAA
Wilson Betemit	1B	400	77	.816	63	.841	65	-2	-2
Wilson Betemit	2B	80	29	.813	24	.823	24	0	0
Wilson Betemit	3B	50	15	.786	12	.761	11	0	0
Wilson Betemit	SS	100	37	.793	30	.825	31	-1	-1
Shelley Duncan	1B	100	19	.834	16	.841	16	0	0
Shelley Duncan	LF	50	13	.871	11	.862	11	0	0
Shelley Duncan	RF	50	12	.875	11	.868	11	0	0
Jason Lane	LF	50	13	.869	11	.862	11	0	0
Jason Lane	CF	200	66	.833	55	.885	58	-3	-3
Jason Lane	RF	100	25	.828	21	.868	22	-1	-1
Morgan Ensberg	1B	450	87	.816	71	.841	73	-2	-2
Morgan Ensberg	3B	90	27	.791	21	.761	21	1	1
Nick Green	2B	40	15	.804	12	.823	12	0	0
Nick Green	SS	40	15	.825	12	.825	12	0	0
Chris Woodward	2B	30	11	.807	9	.823	9	0	0
Chris Woodward	3B	10	3	.846	3	.761	2	0	0
Chris Woodward	SS	10	4	.842	3	.825	3	0	0
Hideki Matsui	LF	350	90	.833	75	.862	78	-3	-2
Johnny Damon	CF	150	49	.881	43	.885	44	0	0

The Yankee bench may end up hitting pretty well for a bench, but they don't look to field particularly well.

Let's add in the catchers:

Catchers	Inn	SB	CS	CS%	PBWPR	TER	FER	Tot R	R/140
Posada	1022	83	31	27%	-2	1	0	-4	-4
Molina	428	20	14	40%	-2	0	0	-3	-8

And let's then add it all up.

Pos	Inn	Proj CH	Proj ZR	Proj PM	Avg ZR	Avg PM	PMAA	RS
1B	1450	279	.810	226	.841	235	-9	-7
2B	1450	534	.831	443	.823	439	4	3
3B	1450	438	.762	333	.761	333	1	0
SS	1450	543	.806	438	.825	448	-10	-8
LF	1450	373	.860	321	.862	321	-1	-1
CF	1450	476	.887	423	.885	422	1	1
RF	1450	362	.862	312	.868	314	-2	-2
C	1450							-7
Total	11600	3005	.831	2496	.836	2513	-17	-13

So overall, the Yankees are projecting to be about 13 runs worse than an average team defensively, which seems bad but for them is pretty good considering some of the teams that they've run out there recently.

So what do all these dorky numbers really mean? The Yankee position players project to score about 938 runs and allow 13 runs more than an average team. According to my Diamond Mind projections which should be released sometime around March 24, the average non-Yankee AL team projects to score 786 runs and be average defensively (shocking, I realize).

938 - 13 - 786 = 139

So the Yankee position players project to be about 14 wins better than an average (81 win team). Now injury or a bigger decline than projected could certainly affect those numbers, but then again a meteor could hit earth and make it all moot too. 81 + 14 = 95 wins. The next question will be whether the pitching staff is going to be able to do their part, which I'll try and answer over the next couple of weeks.

Update: In case any one wants to mess around with different playing times, I've made a spreadsheet that you can use. You can download it here. You can change the players and plate appearances on offense, and on defense you can mess around with innings and positions.

For offense, the projected outs should = the expected outs, you'll have to adjust the plate appearances to get to that. On defense, defensive innings at a position should sum up to 1450.

--Posted at 9:01 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (903)

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Friday, March 7, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Bench

We've gone through the likely starters for the 2008 Yankees, so now it's time to take a look at the guys on the bench. I won't look back at 2007 for these guys, I'll just look at what they project to do this year.

Wilson Betemit
Scott Proctor and his tattered arm were shipped to Los Angeles of Los Angeles last season to acquire Betemit. Betemit's a fairly young player who was once a highly touted prospect in the Braves' farm system. Although he's a switch-hitter, he has exhibited a very significant platoon split in his career.

Vs RHP: .268/.347/.464 in 800 PA
Vs LHP: .232/.281/.353 in 227 PA

Now, 227 plate appearances aren't enough to give us a solid window of Betemit's actual skill vs LHP. The sigma on his OPS vs lefties is .149, so we can say we can estimate his true talent OPS against lefties to be somewhere in the range of .485 - .783. So it's tough to say that Betemit is really a platoon player just yet.

Here's how Betemit's 2008 projections look. I am comparing him to the average 3B here.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	368	331	46	84	17	1	14	41	2	1	36	89	1	.254	.329	.438	-1	9
marcel	383	338	47	90	19	1	14	51	3	1	39	89	1	.266	.339	.453	2	12
pecota	265	234	31	60	13	1	9	36	2	1	27	69	1	.255	.331	.437	-1	6
zips	336	301	42	78	17	1	14	46	1	1	34	86	1	.259	.336	.462	2	11
cairo	228	200	30	51	10	1	8	27	1	1	22	51	1	.254	.326	.428	-2	4
average	316	281	39	72	15	1	12	40	2	1	32	77	1	.258	.332	.443	0	8
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	228	200	35	58	13	2	11	32	1	0	27	44	2	.290	.382	.530	9	15
65%	228	200	33	55	11	1	9	30	1	0	25	47	1	.272	.354	.479	3	9
Baseline	228	200	30	51	10	1	8	27	1	1	22	51	1	.254	.326	.428	-2	4
35%	228	200	27	47	8	0	6	24	0	1	20	54	0	.236	.298	.377	-7	-1
20%	228	200	24	44	7	0	5	22	0	2	18	58	0	.219	.270	.326	-13	-7

Betemit projects to hit about as well as an average 3B. which is pretty damn good for a backup IF.

Defensively, Betemit could see some time at first base depending on how the great Giambi experiment pans out, or in the late innings for defense, but right now his primarily role will be backing up the entire infield. He's a good bat for an infielder, but reviews are mixed on his defense. The numbers aren't great, but we have the small sample size issue to contend with.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2007	AL	NYY	1B	Wilson Betemit	26	14	9	74	67	4	0	9	14	18	.778	-1	-1	-18
2005	NL	Atl	2B	Wilson Betemit	23	1	1	8	1	3	0	0	3	3	1.000	1	0	77
2006	NL	Atl	2B	Wilson Betemit	24	10	9	69	26	20	0	7	17	22	.773	-1	-1	-15
2007	AL	NYY	2B	Wilson Betemit	26	2	2	17	3	7	0	1	6	7	.857	0	0	15
2007	NL	LA	2B	Wilson Betemit	26	1	1	6	1	0	0	1	0	2	.000	-2	-1	-291
2004	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	22	7	4	39	2	6	0	2	7	7	1.000	2	1	47
2005	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	23	63	46	431	26	94	6	6	103	124	.831	5	4	13
2006	NL	Atl	3B	Wilson Betemit	24	30	20	204	8	40	3	9	41	51	.804	1	1	6
2006	NL	LA	3B	Wilson Betemit	24	49	45	398	24	83	4	9	83	109	.761	-3	-2	-7
2007	AL	NYY	3B	Wilson Betemit	26	14	5	56	1	14	2	3	15	19	.789	1	0	11
2007	NL	LA	3B	Wilson Betemit	26	53	39	353	20	60	4	6	62	86	.721	-4	-4	-15
2004	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	22	11	7	75	12	30	3	5	29	35	.829	0	0	-6
2005	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	23	25	10	136	24	40	1	10	36	48	.750	-4	-3	-36
2006	NL	Atl	SS	Wilson Betemit	24	18	10	92	20	33	5	10	27	40	.675	-6	-5	-75
2007	AL	NYY	SS	Wilson Betemit	26	8	4	39	9	9	1	2	8	9	.889	1	0	17
2007	NL	LA	SS	Wilson Betemit	26	2	0	7	0	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	26
Projection			1B			14	9	223	67	4	0	9	14	18	.778	0	0	0
Projection			2B			4	4	92	10	10	0	3	8	10	.791	-2	-2	-27
Projection			3B			43	32	896	17	59	4	6	62	79	.779	-1	0	-1
Projection			SS			15	7	239	15	26	2	6	23	30	.750	0	0	-3

I debated including the defensive numbers for any of the bench candidates since there are sample size issues, but I'll present them with the caveat that there is not enough data to make any definitive assessment of what they may tell us. I'd say Betemit is a decent glove at third and first and probably a bit stretched in the middle infield although he can handle it. Betemit's a lock to be on the roster, and for good reason. He could very well be the best backup infielder in baseball.

Jose Molina
After the Wil Nieves Experience™ got to be too much, the Yankees picked up Molina mid-season from the hated Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Jeff Kennard. Molina's not a good hitter, but that's why he's a backup catcher. Here are his projections for 2008, prepare to be underwhelmed.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	267	254	28	61	13	1	6	30	2	1	12	57	1	.240	.277	.370	-3	3
marcel	326	299	30	74	17	1	6	34	3	1	17	64	2	.247	.285	.371	-2	4
pecota	170	155	14	37	8	0	3	18	2	1	9	36	1	.240	.278	.346	-3	1
zips	203	194	17	47	10	0	3	23	2	0	8	44	1	.242	.276	.340	-4	1
cairo	222	203	21	49	11	0	4	24	2	0	12	43	1	.242	.281	.362	-2	2
average	238	221	22	54	12	0	4	26	2	1	12	49	1	.242	.279	.358	-3	2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	222	203	25	56	14	1	6	29	3	0	15	37	3	.276	.333	.450	7	12
65%	222	203	23	53	12	1	5	26	2	0	14	40	2	.259	.307	.406	2	7
Baseline	222	203	21	49	11	0	4	24	2	0	12	43	1	.242	.281	.362	-2	2
35%	222	203	18	46	9	0	3	21	1	1	10	47	1	.224	.254	.318	-7	-3
20%	222	203	16	42	7	0	2	19	0	1	8	50	0	.207	.228	.274	-12	-7

Pray for Jorge Posada's continued good health, although to be fair Molina's defense might make him worthy of a roster spot.

Year	Last	First	Tm	Lg	Inn	SB	CS	CS%	PBWPR	TER	FER	Tot R	R/140
2004	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	524	23	19	45%	1	1	0	6	14
2005	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	480	19	18	49%	-3	0	0	2	6
2006	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	603	27	19	41%	-5	0	-2	-4	-8
2007	Molina	Jose	LAA	AL	323	18	7	28%	0	-1	0	-2	-8
2007	Molina	Jose	NYA	AL	169	13	5	28%	0	1	0	1	6
Projection	Molina	Jose	NYA	AL	428	20	14	40%	-2	0	0	-3	-8

Molina projects to be below average defensively, mainly due to a poor projection on passed balls and wild pitches. His throwing and error rate are about average. Maybe he can recover some of that 2004 defensive magic.

Although Francisco Cervelli has had a couple of promising seasons in the minors, Molina's probably got his spot on the bench locked up this year.

Morgan Ensberg
Ensberg is coming off a very disappointing season after hitting 59 HRs and walking 186 times combined over 2005 and 2006. His performance was attributed at least partially to a shoulder injury. If that was indeed the case and he is healthy now, he has a lot of upside as not just a bench player, but as a potential starting first baseman. Here's how Ensberg projects for 2008 as compared to an average 1B.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	420	356	54	86	16	1	15	46	2	2	61	82	3	.242	.357	.419	-3	8
marcel	412	346	56	87	17	1	17	54	3	3	59	81	3	.251	.362	.454	1	12
pecota	277	229	38	57	11	1	12	38	2	1	42	57	2	.249	.367	.457	2	9
zips	475	395	60	96	18	1	20	59	1	3	76	105	4	.243	.371	.446	1	14
cairo	431	363	56	93	18	1	18	58	2	3	62	77	3	.255	.366	.459	2	14
average	403	338	53	84	16	1	16	51	2	2	60	81	3	.248	.365	.447	0	12
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	431	363	63	102	22	3	22	65	3	1	70	68	5	.282	.411	.538	17	29
65%	431	363	59	97	20	2	20	62	3	2	66	73	4	.268	.388	.499	10	22
Baseline	431	363	56	93	18	1	18	58	2	3	62	77	3	.255	.366	.459	2	14
35%	431	363	52	88	16	1	16	54	1	4	58	82	2	.242	.344	.419	-6	6
20%	431	363	48	83	13	0	14	50	1	5	54	86	1	.229	.321	.379	-14	-2

Again, we don't know how healthy he is, but the projections are pretty encouraging and there is some upside here.

Also of note are Ensberg's career splits. Versus lefties he has hit .284/.406/.530 in his career over 686 PA, compared to .258/.350/.456 versus righties. Even in his down 2007 he hit .257/.345/.486 versus lefties.

Ensberg's primarily played 3B in his career, but I think he should be reasonably competent at first base because of that infield experience. Here are his career defensive numbers at 3B.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2002	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	27	43	37	328	28	76	8	5	80	110	.727	-5	-4	-16
2003	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	27	111	89	818	77	184	9	18	195	248	.786	6	5	9
2004	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	28	118	103	921	80	164	13	23	180	243	.741	-7	-6	-9
2005	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	29	148	147	1286	100	296	15	31	324	403	.804	5	4	5
2006	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	30	117	106	975	80	230	12	25	247	301	.821	11	9	13
2007	NL	Hou	3B	Morgan Ensberg	32	68	52	492	36	107	11	12	118	161	.733	-6	-5	-15
2007	NL	SD	3B	Morgan Ensberg	32	12	10	93	3	29	1	3	29	32	.906	4	3	53
			3B			102	91	2474	67	183	11	20	198	252	.786	2	1	1

I'd worry about how Ensberg may handle scooping throws, but other than that I think anyone that can play an average 3B should at the very least be average at 1B. Couple that with a bat that projects around average and with a tendency for lefty-mashing, and Ensberg seems like a good guy to have on the bench as well.

Shelley Duncan
The man, the myth, the legend. Duncan scuffled around the minors for most of his career until breaking through in 2007 and getting a shot at the majors as a 27 year old rookie. Duncan slammed 7 HRs in 74 MLB at bats and ended the season with a line of .257/.329/.554. Duncan's projections for 2008 aren't very good because of his lackluster performance in the minors before 2007.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	465	425	58	98	19	1	21	60	2	2	36	113	4	.231	.297	.428	-11	2
marcel	242	215	35	58	10	1	10	34	3	1	22	45	2	.270	.339	.465	0	7
pecota	460	412	51	98	19	1	21	70	3	1	39	112	4	.239	.308	.439	-7	5
zips	446	405	45	98	18	1	24	74	1	2	38	103	3	.242	.312	.469	-4	9
cairo	369	334	44	84	16	1	19	58	0	0	30	77	2	.250	.316	.477	-2	9
average	396	358	48	88	16	1	19	59	2	1	33	88	3	.246	.314	.456	-4	7
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	369	334	51	93	20	2	24	66	1	0	36	69	4	.278	.360	.560	12	23
65%	369	334	47	88	18	1	22	62	0	0	33	73	3	.264	.338	.518	5	16
Baseline	369	334	44	84	16	1	19	58	0	0	30	77	2	.250	.316	.477	-2	9
35%	369	334	41	79	14	0	17	55	0	1	28	82	2	.236	.294	.435	-9	2
20%	369	334	37	74	12	0	15	51	0	1	25	86	1	.223	.272	.393	-16	-5

I think Duncan may be better than what those numbers show because I think he made some adjustments in his game that allowed him to play like he did in 2007. I can see him as a .250/.320/.480 type hitter with HR power, and that's a damn fine bench player.

Defensively, we don't have much data on Duncan, but the scouting reports see him as a below average defender at either first base or the OF corners.

Jason Lane
Lane's a long-shot to make the roster. He's a similar player to Shelley Duncan, but 3 years older and with a couple of bad seasons in his recent past (.201/.318/.392 in 2006 and .175/.254/.345 in 2007). Despite being a righty he doesn't have a huge platoon split (.768 OPS vs RPH, .779 vs LHP). His projections for 2008, as you may imagine, are a little ugly.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	407	363	48	87	18	1	14	46	2	2	40	74	4	.240	.322	.410	-8	3
marcel	332	294	39	68	14	1	13	44	3	2	30	63	3	.231	.304	.418	-7	2
pecota	321	285	35	66	14	1	11	43	4	1	28	61	3	.232	.302	.404	-8	1
zips	434	391	46	90	20	1	15	56	2	2	38	88	5	.230	.306	.402	-11	1
cairo	342	302	39	74	16	1	13	46	2	1	32	62	3	.245	.319	.434	-4	5
average	367	327	41	77	16	1	13	47	3	2	34	69	4	.236	.311	.413	-8	2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	342	302	45	83	20	2	17	53	3	0	38	54	5	.274	.365	.518	9	18
65%	342	302	42	78	18	2	15	49	3	1	35	58	4	.259	.342	.476	2	12
Baseline	342	302	39	74	16	1	13	46	2	1	32	62	3	.245	.319	.434	-4	5
35%	342	302	36	70	14	1	11	43	1	2	29	66	2	.231	.295	.392	-11	-2
20%	342	302	33	65	12	0	9	39	1	2	26	70	1	.217	.272	.350	-18	-9

Defensively, Lane does have the ability to play CF which Duncan does not. However, he doesn't grade well defensively if you believe zone rating.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2004	NL	Hou	1B	Jason Lane	27	3	1	13	13	1	1	3	2	2	1.000	0	0	27
2006	NL	Hou	1B	Jason Lane	29	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2002	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	26	1	1	12	4	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	0	53
2003	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	26	6	2	23	2	0	0	0	2	4	.500	-1	-1	-78
2004	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	27	17	3	49	8	0	0	0	7	10	.700	-2	-1	-39
2005	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	28	6	4	37	11	0	0	0	11	13	.846	0	0	-13
2006	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	29	5	1	17	5	0	0	0	5	6	.833	0	0	-15
2007	NL	Hou	CF	Jason Lane	31	36	27	261	80	2	0	1	77	88	.875	0	0	0
2007	NL	SD	CF	Jason Lane	31	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	137
2002	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	26	11	1	22	4	0	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	0	28
2003	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	26	3	1	14	3	0	0	0	3	3	1.000	0	0	33
2004	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	27	35	6	102	24	2	1	0	22	24	.917	1	1	16
2005	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	28	4	3	24	3	0	0	0	3	7	.429	-3	-3	-153
2006	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	29	6	1	23	6	0	0	0	6	6	1.000	1	1	43
2007	NL	Hou	LF	Jason Lane	31	4	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2002	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	26	27	16	151	39	3	1	1	39	49	.796	-4	-4	-35
2003	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	26	2	0	6	2	0	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	51
2004	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	27	24	13	141	28	0	0	0	27	31	.871	0	0	1
2005	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	28	137	126	1116	225	4	6	0	203	248	.819	-13	-11	-14
2006	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	29	89	73	679	155	1	0	0	149	183	.814	-11	-9	-19
2007	NL	Hou	RF	Jason Lane	31	18	15	128	43	0	0	0	40	47	.851	-1	-1	-13
2007	NL	SD	RF	Jason Lane	31	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	1B		32	2	0	17	7	0	0	1	1	1	1.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	CF		32	16	9	285	28	1	0	0	27	31	.859	-4	-3	-17
Projection	AL	NYY	LF		32	9	2	86	6	0	0	0	6	7	.843	-4	-4	-62
Projection	AL	NYY	RF		32	57	48	1314	98	1	1	0	91	111	.823	-6	-5	-5

I'd have a tough time building a case for Lane over Ensberg or Duncan, unless the Yankees need an OF more than they need a backup corner IF.

Nick Green
The triumphant return of a Yankee legend. Green's the prototypical utility player. He projects to be bad on offense.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	388	358	43	85	16	2	12	44	3	3	25	101	5	.237	.296	.394	-9	1
marcel	216	189	27	45	9	1	4	19	3	2	19	49	4	.238	.315	.360	-5	0
pecota	457	410	47	97	21	2	12	51	6	4	34	129	6	.237	.300	.385	-10	1
zips	370	341	36	88	17	2	11	38	3	3	25	90	4	.258	.316	.416	-4	6
cairo	265	237	30	63	11	2	7	28	2	1	18	57	4	.266	.321	.418	-2	5
average	339	306	37	76	15	2	9	35	3	3	25	83	5	.247	.310	.395	-6	3
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	265	237	35	71	14	3	10	33	3	0	22	49	6	.299	.374	.511	10	16
65%	265	237	33	67	13	3	8	31	3	1	20	53	5	.283	.348	.464	4	10
Baseline	265	237	30	63	11	2	7	28	2	1	18	57	4	.266	.321	.418	-2	5
35%	265	237	27	59	9	1	6	25	1	2	16	61	3	.249	.294	.371	-8	-1
20%	265	237	24	55	8	1	4	23	1	2	14	65	2	.232	.267	.325	-14	-7

He can play pretty much any infield position, although not necessarily all that well.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2006	AL	NYY	1B	Nick Green	27	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	194
2004	NL	Atl	2B	Nick Green	25	75	61	572	137	203	8	44	187	222	.842	4	3	8
2005	AL	TB	2B	Nick Green	26	91	83	731	141	195	4	44	186	240	.775	-11	-8	-16
2006	AL	TB	2B	Nick Green	27	4	4	32	7	8	0	3	7	9	.778	0	0	-14
2006	AL	NYY	2B	Nick Green	27	19	11	103	37	29	1	6	26	35	.743	-3	-2	-30
2007	AL	Sea	2B	Nick Green	29	2	1	8	2	2	0	1	1	1	1.000	0	0	24
2004	NL	Atl	3B	Nick Green	25	5	0	12	0	2	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	0
2005	AL	TB	3B	Nick Green	26	13	11	104	4	21	3	2	23	30	.767	0	0	-2
2006	AL	NYY	3B	Nick Green	27	17	8	80	7	18	2	4	19	27	.704	-2	-1	-25
2006	AL	TB	SS	Nick Green	27	10	7	67	10	21	0	6	22	28	.786	-1	-1	-17
2006	AL	NYY	SS	Nick Green	27	10	3	35	10	11	2	4	11	15	.733	-1	-1	-42
2007	AL	Sea	SS	Nick Green	29	3	0	6	0	2	0	0	2	2	1.000	0	0	65
Projection	AL	NYY	1B			1	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1.000	0	0	0
Projection	AL	NYY	2B			38	32	853	63	85	2	19	79	99	.799	-2	-2	-3
Projection	AL	NYY	3B			13	7	213	4	15	2	2	16	22	.739	-1	0	-3
Projection	AL	NYY	SS			6	3	86	5	9	0	2	9	12	.795	0	0	-8

Green is probably the best choice if the Yankees decide they want a second backup middle infielder, although if they carry 12 pitchers that may make it tough to squeeze him on.

Chris Woodward
Take Nick Green and make him worse and make him a few years older and you have Chris Woodward.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	242	222	23	52	11	1	3	22	1	1	19	51	1	.234	.298	.333	-9	-3
marcel	301	268	32	64	13	1	5	29	2	1	24	61	2	.239	.299	.351	-10	-2
pecota	84	75	8	18	4	0	1	8	1	0	7	17	1	.240	.310	.333	-3	0
zips	179	165	18	37	8	1	2	16	1	0	13	40	1	.224	.285	.321	-8	-3
cairo	238	212	23	49	10	1	3	22	1	0	18	48	1	.231	.286	.330	-10	-4
average	209	188	21	44	9	1	3	19	1	0	16	43	1	.234	.295	.334	-8	-2
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	238	212	28	56	13	2	5	27	2	0	22	41	2	.264	.337	.412	0	6
65%	238	212	25	53	12	2	4	24	2	0	20	45	2	.248	.311	.371	-5	1
Baseline	238	212	23	49	10	1	3	22	1	0	18	48	1	.231	.286	.330	-10	-4
35%	238	212	21	46	8	1	2	20	1	0	16	51	1	.215	.260	.289	-14	-8
20%	238	212	18	42	7	0	1	17	0	0	14	55	0	.198	.234	.248	-19	-13

Woodward has seen some spot duty in the OF which could theoretically give him an edge on Green.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Innings	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PMAA	RSAA	RS/162
2002	AL	Tor	1B	Chris Woodward	26	3	1	10	9	0	0	1	2	2	1.000	0	0	37
2005	NL	NYM	1B	Chris Woodward	29	34	21	199	206	10	2	16	30	33	.909	1	1	7
2006	NL	NYM	1B	Chris Woodward	30	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	.000	0	0	0
2007	NL	Atl	1B	Chris Woodward	31	6	4	35	28	1	1	3	7	8	.875	0	0	6
2002	AL	Tor	2B	Chris Woodward	26	6	3	26	8	14	2	4	11	13	.846	0	0	6
2005	NL	NYM	2B	Chris Woodward	29	5	3	30	4	7	2	1	7	10	.700	-1	-1	-41
2006	NL	NYM	2B	Chris Woodward	30	39	33	292	72	93	4	20	76	91	.835	2	1	7
2007	NL	Atl	2B	Chris Woodward	31	11	6	54	12	16	0	4	15	23	.652	-4	-3	-70
2002	AL	Tor	3B	Chris Woodward	26	2	1	9	2	3	0	0	4	4	1.000	1	1	121
2005	NL	NYM	3B	Chris Woodward	29	6	2	25	1	11	0	0	12	13	.923	2	1	79
2006	NL	NYM	3B	Chris Woodward	30	11	6	66	3	17	0	2	16	16	1.000	3	3	60
2007	NL	Atl	3B	Chris Woodward	31	24	6	100	5	16	3	2	13	16	.813	1	1	7
2002	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	26	79	77	678	134	231	13	64	208	240	.867	4	3	7
2003	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	27	103	98	871	161	300	17	69	279	335	.833	-3	-3	-4
2004	AL	Tor	SS	Chris Woodward	28	64	60	515	87	171	5	42	163	195	.836	-1	0	-1
2005	NL	NYM	SS	Chris Woodward	29	7	3	33	5	7	1	1	6	7	.857	0	0	3
2006	NL	NYM	SS	Chris Woodward	30	13	11	97	13	33	1	10	29	35	.829	0	0	-2
2007	NL	Atl	SS	Chris Woodward	31	13	5	67	7	20	2	5	17	20	.850	0	0	7
Projection	AL	NYY	1B			11	7	192	63	3	1	5	10	11	.901	0	0	2
Projection	AL	NYY	2B			18	14	362	29	38	2	8	32	40	.788	-1	-1	-4
Projection	AL	NYY	3B			14	5	196	3	14	1	1	13	15	.905	2	2	12
Projection	AL	NYY	SS			31	26	712	40	79	4	20	73	87	.839	0	0	0

Woodward brings a slightly better glove than Green it would appear, but a worse bat. He's probably not a good bet to make the team although I have a hunch he could sneak his way on with a hot spring.

Brett Gardner
Gardner's a long shot to start the season in the Bronx. He's shown pretty good OBP skills in the minors and he's supposed to be top of the scouting scale fast, but he has no power at all which is not a good sign for his major league future.

Projection	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
chone	469	427	55	108	18	4	2	43	35	9	40	91	2	.253	.320	.328	-13	-1
marcel	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	0	0
pecota	483	428	58	102	17	4	3	31	25	7	44	100	3	.238	.308	.318	-18	-5
zips	468	417	73	112	15	4	1	27	28	9	49	87	2	.269	.348	.331	-10	2
cairo	325	292	46	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.326	.342	-9	-1
average	349	313	43	79	12	3	2	25	19	5	33	68	2	.253	.326	.330	-10	-1
CAIRO %	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BRAA	BRAR
80%	325	292	53	83	14	5	5	28	12	1	35	53	3	.283	.374	.413	3	11
65%	325	292	50	78	13	4	4	25	11	2	33	57	3	.268	.350	.378	-3	5
Baseline	325	292	46	74	11	3	3	23	9	3	30	61	2	.253	.326	.342	-9	-1
35%	325	292	43	70	9	2	2	21	8	4	27	65	1	.239	.302	.307	-16	-7
20%	325	292	39	65	8	1	1	18	6	5	25	69	1	.224	.278	.272	-22	-13

Gardner's defense is apparently not as good as it should be with his speed because of some questionable reads, but I think he's still likely to be a plus defender.

Conclusion
We can probably assume the Yankees start the season with this lineup:

LF - Damon
SS - Jeter
RF - Abreu
3B - Rodriguez
1B - Giambi
C - Posada
DH - Matsui
2B - Cano
CF - Cabrera

We can probably also safely assume that they'll start the season with a 12 man pitching staff, which leaves four roster spots for the bench. Betemit and Molina are locks. I think Ensberg is pretty close to a lock as well, which leaves one spot for Jason Lane or Shelley Duncan or Nick Green or Chris Woodward. Duncan gives them the better bat, although Green and Woodward give them more infield flexibility. Lane is probably the best OF backup defensively since he can play CF, but he seems like the odd man out. If it was me I'd go with Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. Any situation that would require Green or Duncan could be handled without them. If you lose Alex Rodriguez, Ensberg or Betemit can play third. If you lose one of Jeter or Cano, Betemit can cover them. If you lose both Jeter and Cano, Betemit slides to second, Rodriguez to short, and Ensberg to third. If it's a long-term issue the Yankees would have Alberto Gonzalez available to backup around the IF.

The Yankees have similar OF flexibility with Damon as the backup CF, Matsui as the backup corner OF and emergency CF, and Duncan as a fifth OF who can cover the corners in a pinch.

I suppose a pinch runner for Giambi or Posada would be nice, but is that worth a roster spot? If it is I could see Gardner or Justin Christian sneaking on.

I'll take a look at what the Yankee position players add up to as far as runs and wins in my next entry and then it's on to the pitching.

So, like I said, my bench would be Betemit/Molina/Ensberg/Duncan. There's a possibility Hideki Matsui may start the year on the DL which would open up another spot, but let's assume that's not the case for now. If you could take four players for the Yankee bench, who would they be?

--Posted at 8:46 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (698)

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Sunday, November 18, 2007

CAIRO vs. CHONE - 2008 Yankees edition

While we all wait breathlessly for Mariano Rivera to sign his contract, I noticed that Sean Smith posted his CHONE hitter projections over at his blog. I'm still messing around with my own CAIRO projections so I thought it'd be a good exercise for me to compare what the two say for the Yankees since it now appears the offense is basically set for 2008.

And here's what that looks like:

				CAIRO					CHONE
Starters	POS	PA		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Johnny Damon	LF	600		.286	.357	.438	83		.275	.351	.413	78
Derek Jeter	SS	600		.318	.388	.463	92		.299	.373	.433	84
Bobby Abreu	RF	600		.284	.392	.461	94		.268	.375	.422	84
Alex Rodriguez	3B	600		.300	.402	.569	112		.303	.420	.588	117
Hideki Matsui	DH	600		.291	.370	.489	92		.282	.365	.473	88
Jorge Posada	C	600		.293	.392	.499	98		.285	.389	.475	93
Robinson Cano	2B	600		.312	.347	.489	87		.305	.347	.479	86
Wilson Betemit	1B	400		.265	.338	.443	52		.254	.329	.438	51
Melky Cabrera	CF	600		.281	.341	.403	72		.278	.342	.397	72
Starters Total		5200		.293	.371	.474	783		.284	.367	.457	754
Bench	POS	PA		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Jason Giambi	DH	350		.256	.399	.499	57		.246	.392	.474	55
Shelley Duncan	1B	325		.257	.322	.480	44		.235	.301	.452	40
Jose Molina	C	225		.250	.287	.375	22		.241	.281	.360	20
Alberto Gonzalez	SS	175		.250	.300	.351	16		.247	.295	.335	15
Bronson Sardinha	RF	150		.230	.293	.376	15		.240	.305	.388	16
Brett Gardner	CF	100		.262	.333	.357	11		.253	.320	.328	10
Bench Total		1325		.251	.331	.427	166		.243	.323	.408	157
				AVG	OBP	SLG	BR		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Team Total		6525		.284	.363	.464	949		.276	.358	.447	911

BR is batting runs using linear weights. I used the same amount of projected playing time for every single player and assumed 6525 plate appearances (last year's team had about 6550). I also factored in about 20% bench playing time.

What this data shows is that CAIRO is a lot more optimistic than CHONE, to the tune of a 38 run overall difference. My guess is that Sean is using a harsher aging factor than I am or regressing more towards the mean, or perhaps a combination of the two. The difference isn't huge on a player by player basis, but it's fairly significant overall.

Dan Szymborski's ZiPS for the Yankees are up too but since he doesn't have them in a spreadsheet yet I didn't look at how CAIRO compares yet. I'd guess ZiPS will be harsher than CHONE, but I feel pretty comfortable that the Yankees will score 900+ runs next season.

I've also updated the RLYW Lineup Toy with the CHONE projection data.

My posting may be sporadic over the next week or so as I'm heading on vacation but hopefully someone will fill in.

--Posted at 8:28 pm by SG / 63 Comments | - (1415)

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Monday, November 5, 2007

Journal News - Abraham: Cashman arrives in Orlando hoping to fulfill Yankees’ needs

ORLANDO, Fla. - The annual gathering of baseball’s general managers has usually served only as a precursor to the larger winter meetings of all executives that follow a month later.

But when the GMs start to arrive here today, many will have an agenda they will be eager to enact. Notable among them will be Brian Cashman of the Yankees, who has a long list of issues.

So, what are those issues?

1) 3B? - Betemit + Ensberg is my choice here.  Joe Crede?  Eh.  He’s a good fielder, not a good hitter.  Overall he’s about average if he’s healthy, but that’s probably not any different than what a Betemit/Ensberg platoon would provide.  If the Yankees are willing to part with Hughes or Chamberlain at the front of a package, they may be able to get in on Miguel Cabrera, but I wouldn’t want them to give up either of them.
2) Closer - Please sign Mo.  Please.
3) Catcher - Imagine if Posada and Molina both walk?  Urgh.
4) Bullpen - Right now the Yankee bullpen looks pretty shaky.  There’s not much on the free agent front though.  David Riske? 
5) 1B? - I have this sinking feeling the Yankees are going to bring back Doug Mientkiewicz, but this is the most obvious area where a potential upgrade could off-set the loss of the last 3B.  The only problem is the scarcity of those available upgrades

--Posted at 8:39 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (1300)

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007

So Now What?

I'm disappointed to see Alex Rodriguez gone. In the short-term the Yankees will probably be about five wins worse in 2008 because of it. Long-term though, I don't think this is a bad thing. Rodriguez will be 32 in 2008. The rumored extension the Yankees were talking about would have locked up Rodriguez through his late 30s, at a cost of close to $30 million a year. The Yankees apparently felt that he was worth it, but I don't know if that was really the case. For everyone that hates the Damon and Giambi contracts, you'd probably feel the same way about the Rodriguez contract in a few years.

I don't begrudge Rodriguez for his salary or for opting out. He negotiated both things from his employers as was his right. Why should fans get upset that players are "overpaid" when the money that doesn't go to them just goes into the pockets of the owners? Or do we really think the noble owners wouldn't raise prices if they didn't have to pay the players as much as they do? Maybe Rodriguez wants to own a team at some point. Maybe he wants to do a lot of things that will require every penny he can get together. Baseball is not just a game, it's a business, for the teams and the players. And any Yankee fan that feels sorry for themselves for seeing Rodriguez walk should look in the mirror and remember all the players the Yankees have taken from other teams in the past. Lastly, with the way Rodriguez has been treated by many fans and the media in New York, who could blame him if he wanted to leave? Check out the A-Rod cover counter, 125 covers and counting...

Rodriguez was an important part of the team for the last four years. He will not be an easy piece to replace, but I think the Yankees need to move on. To go back on their word now just makes them look weak and indecisive.

So what are the Yankees losing? First off, realistically they're not losing the 2007 version of Alex Rodriguez. That version of Rodriguez was the most valuable player in the league, but he was also a version of Alex Rodriguez that has never happened in the past and who will likely not happen in the future. It was a career year for a Hall of Fame player, but all we have to do is look at 2004 and 2006 to see that Rodriguez probably isn't that good. As far as projecting Rodriguez in 2008, I went through the numbers already here. In 2008, Rodriguez projected to be worth somewhere around 120 runs using linear weights, compared to the 150 or so he was worth in 2007. Defensively I had him projected to be a touch below average, around -3.

Forget about the idea of moving Robinson Cano to third. It is dumb. He's a plus defender at second base already and is comfortable there, and it's not like the Yankees have someone they could slot in at second if they move him. The obvious in-house candidate is Wilson Betemit.

Here's a look at Betemit's range of CAIRO projections for 2008, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances.

%	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BR	pBR/650
80%	150	650	574	173	39	5	31	105	81	2	122	4	2	.302	.395	.548	.942	115	30
65%	150	650	574	163	35	4	26	97	74	1	132	3	2	.284	.366	.495	.862	100	15
Baseline	150	650	574	152	30	2	22	89	67	1	143	2	2	.265	.338	.443	.781	85	0
35%	150	650	574	142	25	1	18	81	60	0	153	1	5	.247	.310	.391	.701	69	-16
20%	150	650	574	131	21	0	14	73	53	0	163	0	5	.228	.282	.338	.621	54	-31

A few things about these #s. Betemit's platoon splits are extreme (career .268/.347/.464 vs RHP, .232/.281/.353 vs LHP). When projecting any platoon player into a full-time role their statistics may overstate their talent. I think Betemit can be the Yankee 3B against right-handers and put up a league average line for a 3B, but I think he'll be overexposed if he's playing against lefties.
Even Betemit's 80% projection is worse than Alex Rodriguez's baseline projection. Rodriguez projects to be about 36 runs above an average 3B on offense. Betemit's 80% projection has him at 30 runs above average, but more likely he should be right around average.

Here's the defensive comparison between the two.

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PM +/-	RS	RS/162
2004	AL	NYY	3B	Rodriguez	29	155	155	1364	100	262	13	25	286	364	.786	14	11	12
2005	AL	NYY	3B	Rodriguez	29	161	161	1385	115	288	12	26	321	436	.736	-15	-12	-13
2006	AL	NYY	3B	Rodriguez	30	151	148	1288	96	262	24	24	289	390	.741	-10	-8	-9
2007	AL	NYY	3B	Rodriguez	31	154	154	1330	106	251	13	30	283	370	.765	2	1	1
2008				Projection	32	156	154	1336	104	266	16	27	295	390	.755	-3	-3	-3

YEAR	LG	Tm	POS	Player Name	Age	GP	GS	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	PM	CH	ZR	PM +/-	RS	RS/162
2004	NL	Atl	3B	Betemit	22	7	4	39	2	6	0	2	7	7	1.000	2	1	47
2005	NL	Atl	3B	Betemit	23	63	46	431	26	94	6	6	103	124	.831	5	4	13
2006	NL	Atl/LA	3B	Betemit	24	79	65	602	32	123	7	18	124	160	.775	-2	-1	-2
2007	AL/NL	LA/NYY	3B	Betemit	25	63	50	454	25	97	6	12	98	128	.766	-2	-2	-6
2008				Projection	26	50	39	354	22	71	4	7	75	97	.777	0	0	-1

Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM+/-: Difference between PM and an average defender's PM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games

Betemit has only played the equivalent of one full season at third base, so I'm not sure how much faith we can have in his defensive statistics to this point. He projects to be about a smidgen better than Rodriguez defensively, so that's good at least.

If I were running the Yankees, I'd see if Morgan Ensberg gets non-tendered by San Diego. He had a down year this year but he's pretty good defender at third historically and he hits lefties very well(career .284/.406/.530 vs LHP). If he's not non-tendered, maybe an Igawa/Ensberg swap would work for both teams. Here's Ensberg's range of CAIRO projections for 2008.

%	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BR	pBR/650
80%	150	650	550	158	34	4	34	107	104	7	100	6	5	.288	.413	.549	.962	118	33
65%	150	650	550	151	30	3	31	101	98	6	107	5	5	.275	.391	.508	.899	106	21
Baseline	150	650	550	143	27	2	27	95	92	4	113	4	5	.261	.368	.467	.835	94	9
35%	150	650	550	136	24	1	24	89	86	3	120	3	7	.247	.345	.427	.772	82	-3
20%	150	650	550	128	21	0	21	83	80	2	127	1	7	.234	.323	.386	.709	70	-15

And Ensberg's defensive projection:

YEAR

LG

Tm

POS

Player Name

Age

GP

GS

Inn

PO

A

E

DP

PM

CH

ZR

PM +/-

RS

RS/162

2008

NL

SD

3B

Ensberg

32

105

94

848

69

188

12

20

204

259

.785

2

1

2

Even at Ensberg's 35% CAIRO projection a Betemit/Ensberg platoon would probably give the Yankees an above average 3B situation, maybe a win or so above average. That's still a 3-4 win downgrade from Rodriguez, but it would mean 3B isn't a big problem. Ensberg may even recover enough from a down 2007 to deserve the full-time role, although at age 32 I wouldn't bet on it.

With Rodriguez and Posada I had the Yankees projected to score around 930 runs next season. If they retain Posada and replace Rodriguez with Betemit/Ensberg I'd probably put them at 890 runs or so. If they can get better pitching in 2008 I don't see any reason they shouldn't be a wild card contender. Keeping Posada is a must for that though.

So get off the ledge. Losing Rodriguez hurts, but it's not a crippling blow. The Yankees could look to strengthen first base a little to make up for some of the lost offense, but they will likely sink or swim based on the performance of their young pitchers, and any attempt to project how that will work out is going to have huge error bars. If Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy all manage to develop into average or above starters things may just be be OK. If they don't, then the Yankees will miss the postseason. If that happens, it won't be the end of the world. Ask any Red Sox fan if missing the playoffs in 2006 ruined their enjoyment of 2007.

--Posted at 2:46 pm by SG / 157 Comments | - (2452)

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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Heading West

A little over a week ago I went through the Yankee schedule through August 30 and concluded that the Yankees should be expected to go 10-10 or 11-9 over that stretch, using Bill James's Log5 method and the teams' winning percentages, both actual and pythagorean.

Date	Opp	W%	Pyth%	aW	aL	pW	pL
Fri, 8/10	@Indians	0.582	0.566	0.44	0.56	0.53	0.47
Sat, 8/11	@Indians	0.582	0.566	0.44	0.56	0.53	0.47
Sun, 8/12	@Indians	0.582	0.566	0.44	0.56	0.53	0.47
Mon, 8/13	Orioles	0.449	0.483	0.59	0.41	0.63	0.37
Tue, 8/14	Orioles	0.449	0.483	0.59	0.41	0.63	0.37
Wed, 8/15	Orioles	0.449	0.483	0.59	0.41	0.63	0.37
Thu, 8/16	Tigers	0.542	0.541	0.50	0.50	0.58	0.42
Fri, 8/17	Tigers	0.542	0.541	0.50	0.50	0.58	0.42
Sat, 8/18	Tigers	0.542	0.541	0.50	0.50	0.58	0.42
Sun, 8/19	Tigers	0.542	0.541	0.50	0.50	0.58	0.42
				5.1	4.9	5.8	4.2
Actual						7	3

W%: Opponent's winning percentage
Pyth%: Opponent's pythagorean winning percentage
aW: Expected log5 wins based on actual winning percentage
aL: Expected log 5 losses based on actual winning percentage
pW: Expected log5 wins based on Pythagorean winning percentage
pL: Expected log 5 losses based on Pythagorean winning percentage

We're about halfway through that stretch now, and the Yankees went 7-3. We'd have expected them to go either 6-4 or 5-5 so they outplayed expectations by one or two games, which is good.

The next stretch will see seven road games and then three home games against Boston. Here's how Log5 says that stretch should play out.

Date	Opp	W%	Pyth%	aW	aL	pW	pL
Mon, 8/20	@Angels	0.606	0.578	0.43	0.57	0.51	0.49
Tue, 8/21	@Angels	0.606	0.578	0.43	0.57	0.51	0.49
Wed, 8/22	@Angels	0.606	0.578	0.43	0.57	0.51	0.49
Fri, 8/24	@Tigers	0.563	0.558	0.48	0.52	0.53	0.47
Sat, 8/25	@Tigers	0.563	0.558	0.48	0.52	0.53	0.47
Sun, 8/26	@Tigers	0.563	0.558	0.48	0.52	0.53	0.47
Mon, 8/27	@Tigers	0.563	0.558	0.48	0.52	0.53	0.47
Tue, 8/28	Red Sox	0.579	0.619	0.48	0.52	0.49	0.51
Wed, 8/29	Red Sox	0.579	0.619	0.48	0.52	0.49	0.51
Thu, 8/30	Red Sox	0.579	0.619	0.48	0.52	0.49	0.51
				4.7	5.3	5.1	4.9
Actual						?	?

Today's win was an important one, not just because of the win, but because some of the people who contributed. As I ran through on Saturday, the best version of the Yankee lineup has Wilson Betemit at first base, at least against righties. Betemit went two for five and drove in four runs in his bid to cement more playing time. Hopefully he gets it.

We all know how great Joba Chamberlain is already, but the question of who will be getting the innings he doesn't pitch is going to go a long way towards determing how the last 1/4 of the season goes. Edwar Ramirez has been great in his return from the minors. Joe Torre acknowledged that he did not use Ramirez properly in his first go-around, but he appears to be making amends towards that now.

All's not great, as Chien-Ming Wang was a little shaky, but it should be noted that Detroit is a strong offensive team and even if it wasn't pretty, it was six innings and three runs, which qualifies as a quality start. I'm still not sure Wang's completely healthy, but he's better than whomever would take his spot if he was hurt, so it's a moot point to think that he should be DL'ed right now.

The series coming up with the Angels is huge. If the Yankees can knock the Angels down a little, they can make the AL West a tight race and perhaps put themselves in a better position for the Wild card. Seattle and LA of A play each other seven times over the rest of the season, so that's four games the Yankees can pick up on one or the other. Since Seattle apparently has 40 games left against the Chicago White Sox, the Yankees can't wait for them to lose on their own. I know the common belief is that Seattle's not that good, but I think a blanket look at their run differential is going to give a false impression of them. They're a good team that's got blown out a few times. They're not going anywhere as far as I'm concerned.

Update: Someone emailed me asking about an MLE for Edwar. I posted one in a thread a while back, but here it is for those who may not have seen that. An MLE is a major league equivalency, which is a translation of a minor league performance to the majors. It's a tool that can be useful but has some limitations, because not all physical talent translates the same across leagues.

Team	Last	First	Year	Org	MERA	G	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	K
Trenton	Ramirez	Edwar	2007	NYA	3.94	9	16.0	11	7	2	10	22
Scranton	Ramirez	Edwar	2007	NYA	2.31	25	39.0	26	10	1	16	49
New York	Ramirez	Edwar	2007	NYA	5.40	5	6.7	4	4	1	5	10
Total					3.06	39	61.7	41	21	4	31	81

I'd take a line like that from a setup guy.

--Posted at 8:19 pm by SG / 10 Comments | - (1044)

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Saturday, August 18, 2007

Lineup Permutations

With Jason Giambi back in the fold, the Yankees have a problem now. It's not a bad problem, because having more talent than you have spots for is a good thing. The key will be using the talent on hand in the way that is most likely to help you win games.

This is not as clear-cut as the numbers that will follow may make it seem, because you're dealing with egos, over/under performances, possible injuries and fatigue, and many other factors(base clogging, chemistry of the lineup,etc.,). However, since I don't have any way to quantify any of that, I'm just going to look at the data that is available to me and see how the different options shake out.

For offense, I'm using a runs created formula that multiplies OBP times SLG times .92. This is then multiplied by 4.4 PA per player, which is the average PA per game for the Yankees's lineup. This doesn't consider lineup order. OBP and SLG are 2/3 based on the players' projections coming into 2007 and 1/3 based on their YTD performance. For Shelley Duncan I've included his MLEs so his stats aren't skewed by his small sample size MLB performance to this point. Since no one projected Duncan coming into the season, here's the projection I used for him:

Year	Team	Last	First	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBP	SLG
2005	Trenton	Duncan	Shelley	142	521	76	113	23	1	27	71	43	147	.216	.277	.422
2006	Tre-Col	Duncan	Shelley	104	384	43	88	21	0	18	51	31	91	.230	.287	.426
2007	Scranton	Duncan	Shelley	91	325	53	88	17	1	23	66	38	88	.271	.350	.537
2007	Yankees	Duncan	Shelley	17	42	9	13	0	0	6	13	5	12	.310	.383	.738
	Projection			109	416	59	106	26	1	25	67	43	109	.255	.325	.501

I just figured out my own versions of Duncan's MLEs (major league equivalencies) then weighed each season to get a .325 OBP and .501 SLG, which doesn't seem out of line.

For defense, I'm using a combination of career defense as rated by zone rating combined with YTD 2007 performance as far as runs saved per game. For players with small sample size I made some assumptions based on scouting reports and my visual observations. I realize this turns what is supposed to be an objective exercise into a somewhat subjective one, but I think that the logic I used here is at least somewhat sound.

So the numbers that follow are the overall runs created on offense and the runs saved above/below average on defense for a single game. Multiply by 162 if you want to see how that translates to a full season.

Let's first look at the lineup that had become the basic lineup of choice prior to Giambi's return.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Phillips	.537	.037
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Damon	.620	.000
	Off	5.469	-.015
	Over 162	886	-2
	Per Game	5.454

We'd expect this lineup to score 5.469 runs per game using the runs created formula I'm using assuming 40 plate appearances per game. We'd expect them to be .015 runs below average defensively per game. So net, offense plus defense this lineup is worth 5.454 runs per games. Over a full season, we'd expect them to score around 886 runs and be around 2 runs above average on defense. Bear in mind that Melky's projection coming into the year was a little a low and that his YTD performance would be worth .684 RC for ever 4.4 plate appearances. If we swap that out with his .575 combined projection you get an extra 17 runs over a full season. However, as much as I'd like to that, that's not objective analysis, so the projection stays as is with the understanding that it's possibly not indicative of a likely change in Melky's talent level (or a decline by Damon which makes him worse than projected).

So, let's look at a few other combinations.

First up, let's just swap out Damon for Giambi.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Phillips	.537	.037
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.668	-.015
	Over 162	918	-2
	Total	5.653

No impact on the defense obviously, but over a full season it'd be about a 30 run upgrade on offense.

How about Damon at first and Giambi at DH? To make this work I assumed that Damon would be a slightly below average defensive 1B, but not too bad of one. I have no idea if that's a reasonable assumption or not.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Damon	.620	-.006
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.751	-.059
	Over 162	932	-10
	Total	5.692

It's too bad this isn't a realistic option, because it's better than the first two. Unfortunately, it likely isn't or we'd have seen it already.

We also have to consider Wilson Betemit and Shelley Duncan in the mix. How about Duncan at first and Giambi at DH?

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Duncan	.659	-.059
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Damon	.620	-.003
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.668	-.052
	Over 162	918	-8
	Total	5.616

We don't have enough data to have a good read on Duncan's defense at first although the consensus is it's not good, so I gave him a rating equivalent to a -10 over a full season.

Another option is, Betemit at first, Giambi still at DH.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Betemit	.612	-.006
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Matsui	.741	-.062
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.743	-.059
	Over 162	930	-10
	Total	5.684

We have a winner. According to these numbers, this is the best combination the Yankees can run out there if Damon at first is not an option, at least against righties. The nice thing is that since Betemit doesn't hit lefties they could use Duncan against lefties. I'd also assume that Betemit is a better defender at first base than Duncan, although without enough data to know I made him touch below average for this exercise.

The Yankees can also use Duncan in the OF corners although he's supposedly going to be pretty bad out there.

The best defensive team is probably the one below.

Pos	Player	RC	Def
1B	Phillips	.537	.037
2B	Cano	.686	.077
3B	Rodriguez	.900	.073
SS	Jeter	.721	-.164
LF	Damon	.620	-.003
CF	Cabrera	.588	.042
RF	Abreu	.677	-.018
DH	Giambi	.818	.000
	Off	5.547	.044
	Over 162	899	7
	Total	5.591

For all the crap Andy Phillips has been getting lately, offense plus defense he's not really that big of a problem.

There are way too many potential combinations for me to run through in this space, so I've uploaded the spreadsheet that I used for this if you want to play around with it yourselves. Just select a player's name and you'll get a pulldown which lets you change the player and their values will fill in automatically.

There are 39 games left in the season. I'd try to use the Duncan/Betemit platoon at first in at least half of them. I'd use Damon to rest Melky, Abreu, and Matsui once a week, and I'd save Andy Phillips for late inning defense. The nice thing about the current Yankee bench is they can rest almost anyone on the team without losing a ton of value. It seems to me that the main thing the Yankees have to avoid is starting Phillips at first base on the same day they start Damon at DH. If they avoid that, they'll be putting a pretty strong lineup out there no matter what combination they use. Except for House Money day of course.

--Posted at 8:07 pm by SG / 16 Comments | - (970)

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Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Breaking down Wilson Betemit

As Andrew Fletcher over at Scott Proctor's Arm tries to cope, it's time to look at the Proctor for Wilson Betemit trade.

Betemit was a highly-touted prospect in the Atlanta Braves' farm system despite putting up unremarkable stats. He put up a couple of good partial seasons for the Braves in 2005 and then 2006 but was traded in 2007 because Atlanta just had to have Danys Baez. The Yankees have been interested in him for a while, and they even tried to do a Proctor for Betemit swap with Atlanta last year allegedly.

Here's a look at Betemit's last three seasons offensively and his batting runs above average using linear weights (not position-adjusted).

Season	Team	G	AB	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	BR/650
2005	Braves	115	246	274	75	12	4	4	36	20	22	4	55	1	3	.305	.359	.435	.794