Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Defense Edition)
Before getting to the pitching, here’s a quick look at how the 2008 Yankees performed defensively compared to their projections. For my defensive statistics, I use zone rating. If you want to read more about how these numbers are calculated you can read this post or this post. If you want a good general overview of zone rating, read this article by Chris Dial.
First up, here’s how I had the Yankees projected on a team level at each position compared to how they actually ended up doing.
Anyone that wants to look at the details behind the defensive projections can check out this entry so I won’t rehash all that here.
Here’s a rundown by position.
Catcher
rvTE +/-: Run value of throwing errors
rvFE +/-: Run value of fielding errors
rvWP+PB+/-: Run value of wild pitches and passed balls
rvSBA+/-: Run value of stolen base attempts
rvSB+/-: Run value of stolen bases
rvCS+/-: Run value of caught stealings
RSAA: Runs saved above average
Jorge Posada’s a very valuable player at catcher, but that’s because of his bat. His defense is usually average or slightly below average. Posada’s injury led to Jose Molina playing a lot more than expected. As we know, he hit like 1991 Bob Geren, but his glove was outstanding. Using my catcher defense system, he was the best defensive catcher in the AL, and second in MLB behind Jason Kendall.
Posada’s shoulder problems led him to be awful, 5 runs below average in just 234 innings. It’s going to be tough to project the 2009 Yankees without knowing if Posada can handle catching the majority of the time. If he can’t throw better than he did in 2008, he probably gives back the majority of his offensive value on defense.
First Base
G: Games
GS: Games started
INN: Defensive innings at position
Ch: Fieldable chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double plays
ZR: Zone rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays made
AvgPM: Plays made by an average defender over the same # of chances
Diff: PM - AvgPM
RS: Runs saved above average (Diff times run value of play not made)
This projected to be a sore spot defensively because Jason Giambi is just not a good defender. Giambi had a ZR of .801 compared to his projected .796, which is basically the same thing. The Richie Sexson pickup cost the Yankees another four runs at 1B in just 19 games. Nice.
Replacing Giambi with an average defender is probably a ten run upgrade. If they replace him with Teixeira it’s probably close to a 15 run defensive upgrade.
Second Base
Robinson Cano had a very strange season on both sides of the ball. We know he hit like garbage for most of the year. What’s interesting about his defense is he was actually playing very well through July 9, as detailed here. Cano went from a zone rating of .865 and a runs saved above average of +8 to a zone rating of .799 and a runs saved above average of -8 in a span of 49 games. From September 5 on he seemed to recover, putting up a zone rating of .884 and saving 4 runs above average over the rest of the season.
Cano will probably project as an average defender next year instead of a plus defender because of this year, but that’d be a 5 run upgrade.
Third Base
If you just look at the runs saved total for Rodriguez it may seem like he was disappointing, but it’s interesting to note that his zone rating of .786 is actually the highest of his career at 3B. So what happened? The average AL 3B zone rating shot way up to .791 this year, after being about .767 from 2004 - 2007. In a league where .767 is average, Rodriguez would have been a +6 defender.
Morgan Ensberg and Wilson Betemit were both craptacular in limited action, and that’s the main reason 3B was so negative overall. As someone who thought an Ensberg/Betemit platoon could approach league average when Rodriguez opted out, let’s just say it’s a good thing I’m not running the Yankees…
Rodriguez probably won’t be any better defensively next year. At his age we should expect him to lose a run or two of value defensively, so I’d say we should expect 3B to be 2 runs worse next year.
Shortstop
He’s the poster boy for defensive ineptitude, and many of the people who use defensive metrics can barely contain their glee when using them to tear apart his game, but Derek Jeter had a good defensive season this year if you believe zone rating. Whether it was an offseason training regimen that improved his agility, better positioning, or a more favorable distibution of balls in play, the difference between last year was stark, both statistically and visually. Realistically we shouldn’t expect it to happen again in 2009, but he was projected around a -10 coming into 2008, and probably will project to be a -6 or -7 in 2009. 2008 Jeter was more valuable than 2007 Jeter because of the glove.
With the AG gone, backup SS is looking like a problem next year. Cody Ransom did not impress in Fenway defensively.
Left Field
I thought Johnny Damon would end up better in LF and for a while he was above average before falling off, but if he’s the LF next year he should be average or slightly below. Xavier Nady didn’t really impress in LF, but for his career he’s been an average RF (-2 LF in a very small sample size). Hideki Matsui has to be a full-time DH at this point. He was awful this year in LF, and his knees won’t help that.
Center Field
We all know Melky couldn’t hit this year, but he did play solid defense. Damon wasn’t awful in CF, although I doubt he could hold up full-time. Brett Gardner only got 22 games in CF, but his ZR was ridiculously good and he saved 3 runs in very limited time. While I still am not sold on him being able to hit enough to be a starting CF, if his glove and baserunning are as good as they appear to be, it’s very possible he can start in CF with a slightly below average bat. It depends on how below average he is of course.
Right Field
Coming into 2008, Bobby Abreu projected to be about average in RF. Instead he was the absolute worst defensive player in the AL according to zone rating. Abreu’s not obviously bad as far as making errors, but he’s extremely tentative and just doesn’t seem to get to balls that most other players get to. Still, he’s probably not as bad of a defender as his 2008 stats make him look. If I had to project him next year I’d probably project him around a -10 or so. If I were the Yankees I’d still offer him arbitration and hope he declines, because he probably will still be a pretty good player next year if you get stuck with him. I wouldn’t entertain the thought of signing him to a multi-year extension though. Xavier Nady should be able to fill RF next year and play average or slightly below average defense, although he’s not going to hit like Abreu has.
So going into 2008, the Yankees looked to be about two wins worse than an average defense. They actually wound up four wins worse, and that’s almost entirely on Abreu. They should be able to upgrade 1B fairly easily (let’s say +10), Cano should be better at 2B(+5), Jeter will likely be a fair bit worse(-10), Rodriguez and Damon will probably be a little worse(-4 combined). CF depends on if they go with Melky/Gardner or bring someone in(??), and Nady should be better than 2008 Abreu(+15). If Posada is the catcher, that’s a defensive hit(-15).
So minus CF, adding all that up we get +1 compared to 2008. So yeah, don’t expect a much better defense next year.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Offense Edition)
Coming into this season, the Yankees looked to be a contender for best team in baseball. Although they were taking a calculated risk in relying on some very young pitchers, they were returning the bulk of a team that has scored 968 runs last year. Even with expected declines in their older players, they still projected to have the best offense in baseball.
When I ran the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, they were the best team in the AL in most of the projection systems I used. When I looked at the position players and the pitching staff I arrived at the same basic conclusion, the the Yankees should have won somewhere between 93-97 games.
As we all know, things didn’t work out that way. The question I want to look at is why? Were the projections wrong? Was it injuries? Was it a lack of testicular fortitude? Let’s see if we can figure it out.
The projections I’ll be referencing here are the composite projections of several different systems, as detailed in this February blog entry. I’m going to go through position by position looking at the projected starters compared to what the actual primary starters ended up doing, then looking at the bench as a unit.
One other thing, while offense in the AL was down for most of this year compared to last year, the difference has narrowed signficantly of late to the point that it’s probably no longer statistically significant. The league average line of .268/.336/.420 equates to a BR/650 of 80 this season compared last year’s line of .271/.338/.423 which equates to a BR/650 of 81. The BR(batting runs) I’ll be using here are context-neutral raw batting runs using linear weights, not position-adjusted or adjusted for base-out states.
Catcher
Coming off his career year in 2007, Jorge Posada was projected to give back a fair amount of value in 2008. Posada was projected to hit .286/.380/.469, a performance that would have been worth 76 batting runs according to linear weights using my assumed 500 plate appearances.
Posada went down to a shoulder injury after just 195 PA, which made Jose Molina (Molino for the regulars) the primary starter. While Molino had a strong defensive season, he hit like crap. Molina hit .216/.263/.313 over 297 PA, which was worth 21 batting runs. The difference between Posada’s projection and Molina’s actual performance as the primary starter was 55 runs, which was a 5.5 win underperformance. BTW, disparities in playing time at all the positions will be accounted for when we get to the bench.
First Base
Another risk the Yankees took entering 2008 was that Jason Giambi would be able to
-Out-produce a disastrous 2007
-Play passable defense at first base
-Stay healthy all season
If you had asked me the likelihood of all three of those things happening, I’d have put it around the same likelihood as Mike Mussina winning 20 games.
Giambi managed to achieve all three things for the most part. His glove was bad, but not horrifically bad, and he was productive and healthy for most of the year, although 45% of his production came in the 45 games from April 22 - Jun 17 where he hit .319/.441/.694 (40 BR). Over the other 100 games he played, he hit .213/.342/.414 (48 BR). I don’t know if this type of split is particularly meaningful, so consider it just a random factoid.
The 2008 projections for Giambi weren’t bad on a rate basis (.245/.387/.474) but his playing time projections were pretty pessimistic (300 PA). He projected to be worth about 46 batting runs because of that. Instead, Giambi hit for a little more power but a little less OBP (.247/.373/.502), but thanks to exceeding his playing time projections he was far more valuable than he projected to be, exceeding his projected batting runs by 42 runs, a 4.2 win offensive upgrade. The 2008 Yankees’ underperformance from their pre-season projections can’t be laid at Giambi’s feet.
Second Base
Pass.
Well, I wish I could pass anyway. Robinson Cano seemed to be on the cusp of becoming the best 2B in the AL. Cano projected to hit .308/.348/.482 and play plus defense and was at an age where he could still realistically be expected to improve. Cano’s projected offense over 585 plate appearances would have made him worth 84 batting runs. Instead, Cano digressed in just about every facet of his game, hitting .271/.305/.410 over 634 PA, which was only worth 68 BR. This was a downgrade of 1.6 wins.
Third Base
Boo.
Alex Rodriguez was justifiably the AL’s MVP in 2007. He was rightfully expected to regress somewhat in 2008, projected to hit .300/.406/.574 over 650 PA, which would have been worth 123 batting runs. On a rate basis, he basically hit his projection, but thanks to a leg injury that cost him 56 PA compared to his projection, he was 14 runs less valuable than projected, a downgrade of 1.4 wins. It’s also a fact that Rodriguez’s performance in more crucial plate appearances were less productive than his context-neutral numbers show. This was not a problem exclusive to Rodriguez, so I’ll devote a section to that as well.
Shortstop
Derek Jeter came into 2008 projected to hit .307/.379/.438 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 86 BR. A late hot streak pushed him closer to his projections as he ended the season at .300/.363/.408 over 668 PA, a total of 82 BR. He was less valuable than projected on a rate basis, but by exceeding his projected playing time his overall value was only about four runs less than projected.
Left Field
Johnny Damon was shifted to LF due to his defensive decline, the seeming emergence of Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui’s bad knees. This looked like a disaster in the making coming off a poor offensive 2007, although it did also seem like a defensive upgrade. Damon projected to hit .280/.353/.423 over 585 PA, a line that would have been worth 78 batting runs. He blew that away by hitting .303/.375/.461 over 623 PA. So like first base, left field ended up as a net gain on the pre-season projections, to the tune of 15 runs, or 1.5 wins.
Center Field
After a promising rookie season, Melky Cabrera declined in 2007. The projections expected him to bounce back, thanks in part to his youth. Melky was projected to hit .282/.344/.406 over 550 PA for a total of 68 BR. Instead, he got even worse, hitting .249/.301/.341 over 453 PA before mercifully being demoted to Scranton. Cabrera’s line was a downgrade of 27 BR, or 2.7 wins. And that’s all I have to say about that.
Right Field
Bobby Abreu came into 2008 projected to hit .277/.383/.439 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 89 BR. He exceeded that by hitting .296/.371/.471 over 684 PA, worth a total of 101 BR. Luckily for Abreu, we’re ignoring defense for now, and this was an offensive upgrade of 12 runs or 1.2 wins.
Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui was penciled in as the primary DH coming into 2008 and his projection was pretty good, .287/.367/.477 over 500 PA, equivalent to around 74 BR. Unfortunately, after a hot start to the season, Matsui’s knees gave out on him and he missed a significant part of the season and when he managed to come back was very unproductive, ending 2008 with a line of .294/.370/.424 over 378 PA for a total of 50 BR. That’s a 24 run/2.4 win falloff.
So just looking at the starting nine, we see that the Yankees projected to hit .289/.372/.465 over 4870 PA, which would have been worth 724 BR. Instead, the starting nine hit .280/.352/.443 over 4896 PA, for a total of 653 BR. That’s a 71 run drop off or 7.1 win drop off.
The Bench
Projecting the bench is usually tricky, but at least on paper the Yankee bench looked to be serviceable this year, with Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Jose Molina, Shelley Duncan, Brett Gardner, Alberto Gonzalez, Nick Green, Jason Lane and Chris Woodward the likely candidates to see playing time. I had the bench projected to hit .247/.319/.404 over 1811 PA, which would have been worth 209 BR. Instead, the collection of Betemit, Ensberg, Posada, Duncan, Gardner, Gonzalez, Justin Christian, Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, Chad Moeller, Xavier Nady, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Chris Stewart and Cody Ransom hit over .244/.306/.380 over 1339 PA for a total of 140 BR. That’s a 69 run underperformance.
Clutchness
Regular watchers of the 2008 Yankees as well as regular readers of this blog also know from a variety of different methods that the Yankees underperformed with runners on base. Using the method I like best (Fangraph’s batting runs above average based on run expectancy), here’s a look at how the Yankees’ players context neutral batting runs compared to their contextualized batting runs in 2008.
Overall, the difference was small, but I think we can all pick out several games where the Yankees failure to come up with hits in big spots cost them wins.
cnBRAA: context-neutral batting runs above average.
cxtBRAA: contextualized batting runs above average.
Diff: cxtBRAA - cnBRAA.
I don’t know how good or bad the team baserunning has been aside from stolen bases, which are already included in the batting runs above, so we’ll assume they were average.
Let’s roll all that up.
So we had a team that was supposed to score 933 runs or so. Their starting nine created 71 fewer runs than expected, and their bench created 69 fewer than expected, for a total shortfall of around 141 runs. Subract another three runs for unclutchness.
933 run projection - 141 actual underperformance - 3 clutchness = 789.
How many runs did the 2008 Yankees score? 789. That’s creepy, huh?
If you were to rate the biggest reasons for the Yankees’ offensive underperformance, it’d be:
1) Losing Jorge Posada (55 runs)
2) Melky Cabrera sucking ass (27 runs)
3) Hideki Matsui’s knee causing him to both miss time and to underperform when he returned (24 runs)
4) Robinson Cano becoming Wayne Tolleson (16 runs)
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Impeaching the Attorney General?
While its not as sexy as those Jarrod Washburn rumors… several places, I saw it at Pete Abe’s place first, have indicated the Dodgers are so desperate for a shortstop they are eyeing the Yankees’ Alberto Gonzalez.
At first I thought that was crazy for a contending team, then I saw they are in the AAAA NL West and that they recently acquired Angel Berroa to fill a need that wasn’t, you know, bagging groceries.
So, what say the masses? What would it take for you to give an old friend a new shortstop?
Me? In my fantasy world, the Yanks maybe ship the Attorney General, with some other distant prospect, to LA for Hong-Chih Kuo.
Yes, Kuo’s had two TJ surgeries and hasn’t shown the stamina to be a starter - but he’s better than Snacks Pontoon and he’s probably cheaper than Washburn.
Hey, our other Taiwanese hurler with a suspect injury history turned out alright, doncha think?
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Yankee Defense by Zone Rating through May 18, 2008
| Player | Pos | G | INN | PO | A | E | DP | Ch | ZR | Avg ZR | PM | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Giambi, Jason | 1B | 31 | 268.2 | 296 | 13 | 2 | 26 | 59 | .814 | .867 | 48 | 51 | -3 | -3 | -14 |
| Duncan, Shelley | 1B | 8 | 63 | 59 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1.000 | .867 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Ensberg, Morgan | 1B | 6 | 34 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1.000 | .867 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 1B | 2 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.000 | .867 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Posada, Jorge | 1B | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .667 | .867 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | -86 |
| Damon, Johnny | 1B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .867 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 43 | 364.2 | 86 | 140 | 4 | 32 | 151 | .841 | .829 | 127 | 125 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | 2B | 3 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 9 | .778 | .829 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -24 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 21 | 178 | 15 | 47 | 2 | 6 | 56 | .893 | .800 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| Ensberg, Morgan | 3B | 17 | 124 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 45 | .689 | .800 | 31 | 36 | -5 | -4 | -47 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | 3B | 10 | 53.2 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 14 | .857 | .800 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 3B | 5 | 30 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 15 | .667 | .800 | 10 | 12 | -2 | -2 | -77 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 42 | 352.2 | 98 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 107 | .907 | .901 | 97 | 96 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 4 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | .714 | .901 | 5 | 6 | -1 | -1 | -48 |
| Damon, Johnny | LF | 33 | 272.1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65 | .892 | .846 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 14 | 113.1 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 36 | .694 | .846 | 25 | 30 | -5 | -5 | -58 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 42 | 353.2 | 77 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 94 | .830 | .867 | 78 | 81 | -3 | -3 | -12 |
| Matsui, Hideki | RF | 3 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | .867 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 |
| Duncan, Shelley | RF | 3 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | .867 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 38 | 328.2 | 45 | 95 | 4 | 19 | 113 | .796 | .837 | 90 | 95 | -5 | -3 | -15 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | SS | 5 | 41 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.000 | .837 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 52 |
| Betemit, Wilson | SS | 3 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 6 | .833 | .837 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Pos: Position
G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Why The Yankees Are Losing
The chart below shows the Yankees' average projections pro-rated to their actual playing time this season on the left. On the right are the actual YTD performance.| Team | NYA | Proj | Actual | |||||||||||
| Starters | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Diff | ||
| Jorge Posada | C | 66 | .293 | .392 | .499 | 11 | 66 | .302 | .333 | .476 | 9 | -2 | ||
| Jason Giambi | 1B | 139 | .256 | .399 | .499 | 23 | 139 | .193 | .345 | .468 | 19 | -3 | ||
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 164 | .312 | .347 | .489 | 24 | 164 | .208 | .256 | .318 | 10 | -13 | ||
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 99 | .300 | .402 | .569 | 18 | 99 | .286 | .343 | .495 | 15 | -4 | ||
| Derek Jeter | SS | 163 | .318 | .388 | .463 | 25 | 163 | .314 | .346 | .431 | 20 | -5 | ||
| Johnny Damon | LF | 175 | .286 | .357 | .438 | 24 | 175 | .257 | .341 | .454 | 24 | 0 | ||
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 158 | .281 | .341 | .403 | 19 | 158 | .262 | .325 | .426 | 19 | 0 | ||
| Bobby Abreu | RF | 176 | .284 | .392 | .461 | 28 | 176 | .288 | .352 | .450 | 23 | -5 | ||
| Hideki Matsui | DH | 163 | .291 | .370 | .489 | 25 | 163 | .306 | .387 | .458 | 24 | -1 | ||
| Starters Total | 1303 | .292 | .373 | .471 | 197 | 1303 | .287 | .336 | .436 | 163 | -34 | |||
| Bench | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | Diff | ||
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | 41 | .257 | .322 | .480 | 6 | 41 | .194 | .293 | .250 | 3 | -3 | ||
| Chad Moeller | C | 41 | .231 | .287 | .373 | 4 | 41 | .243 | .317 | .378 | 4 | 0 | ||
| Alberto Gonzalez | SS | 41 | .250 | .300 | .351 | 4 | 41 | .257 | .333 | .314 | 4 | 0 | ||
| Jose Molina | C | 84 | .250 | .287 | .375 | 8 | 84 | .203 | .220 | .304 | 5 | -4 | ||
| Chris Stewart | C | 3 | .250 | .300 | .375 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | -1 | ||
| Morgan Ensberg | 3B | 76 | .261 | .368 | .467 | 11 | 76 | .214 | .276 | .257 | 4 | -7 | ||
| Wilson Betemit | SS | 27 | .265 | .338 | .443 | 4 | 27 | .269 | .296 | .462 | 3 | 0 | ||
| Bench Total | 313 | .256 | .316 | .410 | 36 | 313 | .233 | .275 | .308 | 22 | -14 | |||
| Team Total | 1616 | .285 | .362 | .459 | 233 | 1616 | .258 | .325 | .410 | 186 | -48 |
BR here are batting runs by linear weights (not position-adjusted or compared to average). Apart from Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera, every Yankee starter has provided less offense than projected and overall the starters are 34 runs below their expectations. The bench has also significantly underperformed to the tune of 14 runs below expectations.
The Yankees are 48 runs below expectations even accounting for the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. That's five wins, and it at least partially explains why they are 20-23. If the offense had played as expected, they'd be 25-18, which is a 94 win pace and right around where they should have been. Offense is down in the AL by around 11% this season, but the Yankees are scoring 20% less frequently than expected so that's not the whole explanation.
The pitching and defense have not been the problem. The defense is below average but it was supposed to be. The pitching staff has been a little worse than average, but not egregiously so (-2 runs saved above average). It's the lack of offense that's killing this team. Unfortunately, I don't see any moves that can be done to fix that.
Monday, April 21, 2008
April 21 - Yankee Offense Projections vs. Actuals
So the team that I projected to score around 930 runs this year is on pace to score 689, which would rank ninth in the AL if things held up. Here's a look at each player's contributions to that.| Player | pAVG | pOBP | pSLG | pBR | aAVG | aOBP | aSLG | aBR | Brdiff |
| Jose Molina | .243 | .280 | .360 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .528 | 6 | 3 |
| Chad Moeller | .225 | .299 | .348 | 2 | .350 | .435 | .600 | 5 | 3 |
| Hideki Matsui | .287 | .367 | .477 | 11 | .323 | .405 | .523 | 13 | 2 |
| Melky Cabrera | .282 | .344 | .406 | 8 | .281 | .353 | .456 | 10 | 1 |
| Alberto Gonzalez | .253 | .301 | .348 | 2 | .333 | .400 | .467 | 3 | 1 |
| Morgan Ensberg | .248 | .365 | .446 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .500 | 3 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | .243 | .311 | .453 | 1 | .200 | .200 | .200 | 0 | -1 |
| Johnny Damon | .280 | .353 | .423 | 11 | .215 | .333 | .400 | 10 | -1 |
| Bobby Abreu | .277 | .383 | .439 | 12 | .306 | .367 | .458 | 11 | -1 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .300 | .406 | .574 | 16 | .308 | .357 | .551 | 14 | -1 |
| Wilson Betemit | .258 | .333 | .445 | 2 | .154 | .214 | .154 | 0 | -2 |
| Derek Jeter | .307 | .379 | .438 | 8 | .309 | .339 | .418 | 7 | -2 |
| Jorge Posada | .286 | .380 | .469 | 7 | .261 | .306 | .391 | 5 | -2 |
| Jason Giambi | .245 | .387 | .474 | 9 | .109 | .288 | .283 | 5 | -4 |
| Robinson Cano | .308 | .348 | .482 | 12 | .169 | .200 | .234 | 2 | -9 |
| Total | .280 | .362 | .453 | 107 | .265 | .331 | .425 | 93 | -13 |
pAVG: Projected batting average
pOBP: Projected on base percentage
pSLG: Projected slugging average
pBR: Projected batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
aAVG: Actual batting average
aOBP: Actual on base percentage
aSLG: Actual slugging average
aBR: Actual batting runs (pro-rated to actual playing time, not position-adjusted)
Brdiff: Difference between projected batting runs and actual, pro-rated to actual playing time
There are some rounding issues in the table above so if things don't seem to add up here, trust me, they actually do in Excel. The batting runs are adjusted for actual playing time so it's a direct comparison, but no position-adjusment is included. The Yankee offense theoretically should have scored 13 fewer runs than you'd expect given the allocation of playing time and the players' projections on offense. They're actually even worse than that at 85 runs, thanks to poor hitting in the clutch primarily.
God bless Molino and Moello, or they'd be six runs worse than that. Add in the pitching staff, which has the fifth worst RA in the AL at 4.82 and has saved five fewer runs than average, and you have a 23 run deficit, which is about 2.3 wins. Not coincidentally, they sit 10-10 while log5 says they should have expected to be 11.6 - 8.4 to this point.
For all the crap Giambi's been getting, Cano is the single biggest problem on this team. He's been so bad offensively that even with the +1 defense he's played so far, his overall "value" to the team is -8 runs. Let's hope for a heat wave soon.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Can’t O
I’m stealing my title from Keith’s liveblogs. At first yesterday’s game with the Rays was great. Then, it started to suck. Then it was great again. When it was finally over, the Yankees had an 8-7 win over the the Tampa Bay Rays.
Three solo homers by Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Morgan Ensberg in the first two innings gave the Yankees a quick 3-0 lead. Ian Kennedy gave one run back in the third but the Yankees scored four in the fourth and had a 7-1 lead. Kennedy gave one more run back but got through six with the same 7-2 lead. Kennedy pitched pretty well yesterday, Kennedy threw 94 pitches, 60 for strikes, and got a mix of 10 fly balls, 8 grounders and 3 line drives. He walked just two while fanning four in a very encouraging outing overall. Kennedy took a liner off his hip leading off the seventh and then came the bullpen.
Prior to last night’s game the Yankee bullpen had pitched quite well. They had an overall ERA of 3.09 and had struck out 43 while walking 13 over 46.2 innings. Unfortunately, that must have meant they were due for a bad game and it came last night. Billy Traber relieved Kennedy with three straight lefties due up and a runner on. He got Akinori Iwamura to line out to deep right, then Carl Crawford took him deep to make it a 7-4 game. Traber then hit Carlos Pena and was pulled for Brian Bruney. Bruney gave up back to back homers to B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria (his first MLB homer) and all of a sudden it was 7-7.
In the top of the eighth after Chad Moeller struck out (shocking), Alberto Gonzalez stepped up. Joe Girardi went to his bench for Robinson Cano who had a night off to clear hs head or something. Cano worked the count to 2-1 then hit a moonshot HR that gave the Yanks an 8-7 lead. That would be the last run scored in the game, as Bruney and Mo combined to retire the last six Rays hitters and the Yankees evened their record at 7-7.
After a horrible first start and a middling relief performance, Kennedy’s good start was a breath of fresh air. He’s very likely going to continue to mix in some clunkers but all pitchers do to varying degrees. It was also nice to see Ensberg making the most of what’s been very limited playing time to this point. I don’t think Jason Giambi is completely done despite his low average so far, but I’d like to see Ensberg get a little more time to see what he can provide.
After a painful series in Fenway it was a nice win. I’m still not expecting the Yankees to leave April with a record much better than .500 but I would like to see certain players performing better, like Cano especially. Hopefully last night was the start to one of his hot streaks. Rodriguez also had a good game, going 4-5 with the aforementioned HR, after what’s been a relatively disappointing start to the season.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Growing Pains
Since starting out 2008 with a great debut, Phil Hughes has been flat out horrible. In his last two starts he’s gone five innings and allowed 12 hits, 10 runs, walked 7 and struck out 5. His ERA over that span is 16.20. The way the game played out, Hughes was the chief reason the Yankees lost to Boston 8-5 last night, which cost them the series victory in their first matchup of 2008. I don’t know that there’s much choice besides throwing Hughes out there again and hoping he gets things figured out. With Alan Horne hurt the next choice on the farm is Kei Igawa, and I’ll give you three guesses how that would turn out.
Despite Hughes’s awfulness, the Yankees had a fighting chance in the game as they managed to score four runs over the first five innings against Daisuke Matsuzaka. David Aardsma held the yankees scoreless in the sixth and seventh but the Yankees tried to rally in 8th. Jason Giambi homered leading off the inning against Mike Timlin. Giambi is hitting 1.000/1.000/4.000 vs Timlin this year, and .038/.257/.077 against everyone else this year. Jose Molina singled to left but then was removed from the game for a pinch runner. It seemed like a strange move at the time but there turned out to be a logical rationale for it. Melky Cabrera pinch-hit for Alberto Gonzalez and singled and the Yankees had the tying runs on base with no one out. Johnny Damon ended any threat by hitting into a double play. So much for Damon reporting to camp in shape, at least so far. Just think, he’s signed for another year after this one.
Kyle Farnsworth gave Boston an insurance run in the eighth but it didn’t really matter as the Yankees went out meekly in the ninth. It wasn’t all Farn’s fault, as Jorge Posada could not even attempt to throw out any runners so Coco Crisp basically turned a single into a double which allowed two sac flies to score him.
Molina’s hamstring injury causes a real dilemma. It is definitely a DL issue, but the Yankees don’t have an active third catcher on their 40 man roster and Jorge Posada can’t throw. Some kind of roster move will probably be coming today with Chad Moeller getting called up. The logical move is probably putting Francisco Cervelli on the 60 day DL. Moeller makes Molina look like Albert Pujols offensively. He’s projected to “hit” somewhere in the area of .210./.260/.320. As long as Posada can’t throw, Moeller is going to play which doesn’t help an already struggling offense.
In other news, Joba Chamberlain’s father collapsed last night and Joba left the team to be with him. Here’s hoping for a speedy recovery for Mr. Chamberlain.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Worst Offense Ever Takes a Night Off
In a shocking turn of events, the Yankees managed to score a decent number of runs last night, beating the Royals 6-1. Granted, two of the runs came in the ninth inning against Hideo Nomo, who I could have sworn has been retired for a few years, but it was still good to see. Jorge Posada's HR was especially nice considering the way he has started the season off with his injury and ineffectiveness.More important than the offensive outburst was Andy Pettitte's good pitching. Pettitte went six and two-thirds innings and allowed just one run and five hits. The Yankees really need Pettitte and Wang to do what they are projected to do this season if they want to have a shot at the postseason. it was still a save situation when Pettitte was pulled so Joba Chamberlain pitched the end of the seventh as well as the eighth. I like seeing Joba pitch more than one inning because I still think he should end up in the rotation. Mariano Rivera came in to pitch the ninth despite the Yankees adding a couple of runs, which was fine, he hadn't pitched for a few days and was already warmed up anyway. One thing that I noticed last night is Mo was throwing a lot of two-seamers. I'd like to see him continue to do that.
Now comes three games against some .500 team. Your pitching matchups for the weekend:
Friday April 11: C. Wang (2-0,1.38) vs. C. Buchholz (0-1,5.40)
Saturday April 12: M. Mussina (1-1,3.09) vs. J. Beckett (0-1,9.64)
Sunday April 13: P. Hughes (0-1,5.00) vs. D. Matsuzaka (2-0,1.47)
I hate these series, mainly because of the ridiculous hype certain media outlets try to give these games. It's an interesting set of matchups. Wang makes his first road start of the year and the Yankees haven't seen Buccholz before, so hopefully he doesn't no-hit them. Beckett's still working his way back to full strength but Moose is going to have to try to trick one of the better lineups in baseball, and who knows what either Hughes or Matsuzaka will bring on Sunday night?
Since I don't know how long this will last, here's an early meaningless and small sample size look at how the Yankee defense has performed according to zone rating so far this season.
| Player | Pos | G | INN | Ch | ZR | PM | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Giambi, Jason | 1B | 6 | 43 | 11 | .818 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 0 | -15 |
| Ensberg, Morgan | 1B | 3 | 17 | 3 | 1.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 1B | 2 | 11 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Duncan, Shelley | 1B | 1 | 9 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 10 | 88 | 43 | .837 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 10 | 87 | 29 | .931 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 50 |
| Betemit, Wilson | 3B | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Molina, Jose | C | 7 | 55 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Posada, Jorge | C | 4 | 33 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 8 | 70 | 21 | .810 | 17 | 19 | -2 | -2 | -31 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 2 | 18 | 3 | 1.000 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| Damon, Johnny | LF | 6 | 53 | 9 | 1.000 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 3 | 27 | 7 | .571 | 4 | 6 | -2 | -2 | -90 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 8 | 70 | 10 | .900 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Matsui, Hideki | RF | 1 | 9 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Duncan, Shelley | RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 137 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 7 | 56 | 26 | .731 | 19 | 22 | -3 | -2 | -54 |
| Gonzalez, Alberto | SS | 2 | 17 | 5 | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 52 |
| Betemit, Wilson | SS | 2 | 15 | 5 | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 58 |
| Total | 84 | 680 | 178 | .854 | 152 | 150 | 2 | 1 | 21 |
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games
Melky's had some tough chances so I wouldn't pay much heed to his numbers yet, but I think Hideki Matsui needs to be kept out of the outfield whenever possible. For those of you thinking Alex Rodriguez is playing Gold Glove caliber defense this year, you're right.
In bad news down on the farm, Alan Horne suffered some kind of injury in his start last night and will have an MRI today. Let's hope for good news there.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Oh Where, Oh Where Has My Little Offense Gone?
While my head knows that nine games is still way too small of a sample size to draw undue distinctions from, it sure didn’t feel like it while I watched the again punchless Yankees fall to Kansas City 4-0 last night. Granted, sometimes you run into a Roy Halladay. Sometimes you run into A.J. Burnett. Sometimes you run into Dustin McGowan. Sometimes you run into Andy Sonnastine. Sometimes you run into Edwin Jackson. Sometimes you run into James Shields. Sometimes you run into Jason Hammel. Sometimes you run into Brian Bannister. Sometimes you run into Zach Greinke. But come on, ALL NINE OF THEM?
With a forecast of rain all night, Joe Girardi pulled Ian Kennedy from starting the game and went with Brian Bruney to start the game. The reason given was so that they wouldn’t start the game with Kennedy and then lose him if the rain stopped the game. Considering the grief Girardi got for bringing back Josh Johnson from a long rain delay when he managed the Marlins in 2006 and Johnson’s subsequent breakdown which may or not have been related, this was pretty interesting out of the box thinking. For the most part it seemed to work well, although it likely cost the Yankees the use of Bruney and Farnsworth in today’s game. That’s probably bad in the former case but not necessarily so in the latter case. Kennedy ended up pitching the 6th through 8th, starting off poorly but finishing off pretty well.
The pitching didn’t really matter because the offense continued to stink. Here’s how the Yankees rate by position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights to this point.
Matsui : 2
Abreu : 1.5
Rodriguez : 0.7
Molina : 0.3
Gonzalez : 0.2
Cabrera : 0.1
Ensberg : -0.5
Damon : -0.5
Duncan : -0.5
Betemit : -1
Jeter : -1.5
Posada : -1.9
Giambi : -2.4
Cano : -4.4
How is Damon not worse? Hey Robinson, feel free to stop sucking. How bad has Cano been? Here are the five worst offensive players so far in the AL this season by position-adjusted BRAA:
Crawford : -4.3
Johjima : -4.3
Ortiz : -4.3
Cano : -4.4
Polanco : -4.6
Only Placido Polanco has been worse. He’s in good company with David Ortiz and Carl Crawford at least.
Like I said, it’s still too early to panic, but it’s probably not too early to get irritated or annoyed.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Position Player Wrapup
So now that I've gone through the position players, it's time to close out what the outlook is on a team level. To do that I've built depth charts on offense and defense which we can use as a rough gauge,Offensively, there's little question that the Yankees are probably the most talented team in baseball. The one question that could impact that is the health of their regulars given their ages. Projections of single players are for the most part objective, but when we try to roll them up into a team-wide performance we will run into subjective issues with playing time, so keep that in mind.
This is my projected lineup for the Yankees this year. I am basing the playing time on their projected playing time with some downward adjustments for potential injuries. I am allocating total playing time based on expected outs by each player, with the assumption that the team will have 27 outs per game minus about 80 outs to account for ninth innings in home victories, so a total of 4294 outs. I didn't subtract more outs than that to account for extra innings.
The projections below are the average of five systems (CHONE, MARCEL, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO). The last column (BR) is batting runs by linear weights. There are no position adjustments or comparisons to average in the batting runs calculated here, since I am looking for a total number.
| Starters | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | Outs | BR |
| Johnny Damon | LF | .280 | .353 | .423 | 585 | 379 | 78 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | .307 | .379 | .438 | 600 | 373 | 86 |
| Bobby Abreu | RF | .277 | .383 | .439 | 600 | 370 | 89 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | .300 | .406 | .574 | 650 | 386 | 123 |
| Jason Giambi | 1B | .245 | .387 | .474 | 300 | 184 | 46 |
| Jorge Posada | C | .286 | .380 | .469 | 500 | 310 | 76 |
| Hideki Matsui | DH | .287 | .367 | .477 | 500 | 316 | 74 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | .308 | .348 | .482 | 585 | 381 | 84 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | .282 | .344 | .406 | 550 | 361 | 68 |
| Starters Total | .289 | .372 | .465 | 4870 | 3060 | 724 |
I can't account for the event of catastrophic injury here, so I tried to spread the injury risk among everyone with the exception of Giambi, who I'm assuming will be restricted to around 300 plate appearances. Outs are just calculated as (1 - OBP) times PA.
Here's how the bench looks.
| Bench | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | Outs | BR |
| Wilson Betemit | 3B | .258 | .333 | .445 | 350 | 233 | 46 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 1B | .248 | .365 | .446 | 290 | 184 | 40 |
| Jose Molina | C | .243 | .280 | .360 | 250 | 180 | 23 |
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | .243 | .311 | .453 | 250 | 172 | 32 |
| Brett Gardner | OF | .253 | .325 | .327 | 150 | 101 | 15 |
| Alberto Gonzalez | SS | .253 | .301 | .348 | 140 | 98 | 13 |
| Nick Green | UT | .246 | .308 | .397 | 129 | 89 | 14 |
| Jason Lane | OF | .235 | .311 | .414 | 127 | 87 | 15 |
| Chris Woodward | UT | .234 | .294 | .339 | 125 | 88 | 11 |
| Bench Total | .247 | .312 | .404 | 1811 | 1234 | 209 |
I have no idea if any of Jason Lane, Nick Green or Chris Woodward will see any playing time but I figure they will be stashed at Scranton so there's at least some possibility of it. What should be obvious is that the Yankees have two potentially strong bench players in Betemit and Ensberg, who both project well enough to be starters at their respective positions. That helps mitigate any potential injuries in the infield with Betemit's ability to cover any position and with Ensberg presumably able to cover 3B and 1B.
Add it up, and here's what you get.
| Team Total | AVG | OBP | SLG | PA | Outs | BR |
| Starters + Bench | .277 | .355 | .448 | 6681 | 4294 | 933 |
The sigma on a team's runs scored in a season is around 30, so that puts the Yankees in a range of 903-963 runs scored this year on paper using the projections I'm using and the playing time assumptions I'm using.
Looking at baserunning using Lee Panas's bases gained above average, here's how the players that Lee had data for did last year:
| Player | Team | BGAA Hits | BGAA Ground | BGAA Air | BGAA Other | BGAA Total |
| Damon | NYA | 3.7 | 2.3 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 33.6 |
| Rodriguez | NYA | 11.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 11.1 | 28.1 |
| Abreu | NYA | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 8.7 |
| Jeter | NYA | 9 | -3.6 | 1.3 | -3 | 3.7 |
| Matsui | NYA | 4.5 | 1.5 | -2.3 | -2.8 | 0.9 |
| Cabrera | NYA | 4.9 | 2.6 | -6.9 | -1.4 | -0.8 |
| Cano | NYA | 4.6 | 6 | -5.3 | -8.7 | -3.4 |
| Giambi | NYA | -9.1 | 0.5 | -1 | -0.6 | -10.3 |
| Posada | NYA | -7.5 | -5 | -5.1 | -0.6 | -18.2 |
| Ensberg | NYA | -6.3 | 2.8 | -2.4 | -0.2 | -6.1 |
| 16.7 | 11 | -1.2 | 9.8 | 36.2 |
A team total of 36 would be worth an additional 10 runs, but we should regress that towards average since we only have one year of data. Let's assume the Yankees will be about 5 runs better than average on the bases this year.
So we've got 933 runs at the plate and another 5 on the bases, but unfortunately, we're not quite done yet.
Projecting defense is tricky, but I'm going to take a stab at it anyway. Using zone rating projections and defensive depth charts, here's how that looks.
First up, the expected starters. A full season is about 1450 defensive innings.
| Starters | POS | Inn | Proj CH | Proj ZR | Proj PM | Avg ZR | Avg PM | PMAA | RSAA |
| Jason Giambi | 1B | 500 | 96 | .796 | 77 | .841 | 81 | -4 | -3 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 1300 | 479 | .833 | 399 | .823 | 394 | 5 | 4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 1300 | 392 | .758 | 298 | .761 | 298 | -1 | -1 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 1300 | 487 | .806 | 392 | .825 | 402 | -9 | -7 |
| Johnny Damon | LF | 1000 | 257 | .869 | 223 | .862 | 222 | 2 | 1 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 1100 | 361 | .898 | 324 | .885 | 320 | 5 | 4 |
| Bobby Abreu | RF | 1300 | 325 | .864 | 280 | .868 | 282 | -1 | -1 |
| Total | 13050 | 2397 | 1993 | 1999 | -5 | -4 |
POS: Position
Inn: Defensive innings
Proj CH: Projected chances
Proj ZR: Projected zone rating
Proj PM: Projected plays made
Avg ZR: Average projected ZR at POS
Avg PM: Average plays made
PMAA: Plays made above average
RSAA: Runs saved above average
That looks like the best defensive team the Yankees have run out there in a while, with only Giambi and Jeter as big minuses. In Giambi's case he probably won't play enough to really hurt the team, and in Jeter's case the more he plays the more he bats so I guess it's not really all that bad.
Filling in the remaining innings with bench guys, here's what I get.
| Bench | POS | Inn | Proj CH | Proj ZR | Proj PM | Avg ZR | Avg PM | PMAA | RSAA |
| Wilson Betemit | 1B | 400 | 77 | .816 | 63 | .841 | 65 | -2 | -2 |
| Wilson Betemit | 2B | 80 | 29 | .813 | 24 | .823 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| Wilson Betemit | 3B | 50 | 15 | .786 | 12 | .761 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Wilson Betemit | SS | 100 | 37 | .793 | 30 | .825 | 31 | -1 | -1 |
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | 100 | 19 | .834 | 16 | .841 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | LF | 50 | 13 | .871 | 11 | .862 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | RF | 50 | 12 | .875 | 11 | .868 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Lane | LF | 50 | 13 | .869 | 11 | .862 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Lane | CF | 200 | 66 | .833 | 55 | .885 | 58 | -3 | -3 |
| Jason Lane | RF | 100 | 25 | .828 | 21 | .868 | 22 | -1 | -1 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 1B | 450 | 87 | .816 | 71 | .841 | 73 | -2 | -2 |
| Morgan Ensberg | 3B | 90 | 27 | .791 | 21 | .761 | 21 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Green | 2B | 40 | 15 | .804 | 12 | .823 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Green | SS | 40 | 15 | .825 | 12 | .825 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Woodward | 2B | 30 | 11 | .807 | 9 | .823 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Woodward | 3B | 10 | 3 | .846 | 3 | .761 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Woodward | SS | 10 | 4 | .842 | 3 | .825 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Hideki Matsui | LF | 350 | 90 | .833 | 75 | .862 | 78 | -3 | -2 |
| Johnny Damon | CF | 150 | 49 | .881 | 43 | .885 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
The Yankee bench may end up hitting pretty well for a bench, but they don't look to field particularly well.
Let's add in the catchers:
| Catchers | Inn | SB | CS | CS% | PBWPR | TER | FER | Tot R | R/140 |
| Posada | 1022 | 83 | 31 | 27% | -2 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -4 |
| Molina | 428 | 20 | 14 | 40% | -2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -8 |
And let's then add it all up.
| Pos | Inn | Proj CH | Proj ZR | Proj PM | Avg ZR | Avg PM | PMAA | RS |
| 1B | 1450 | 279 | .810 | 226 | .841 | 235 | -9 | -7 |
| 2B | 1450 | 534 | .831 | 443 | .823 | 439 | 4 | 3 |
| 3B | 1450 | 438 | .762 | 333 | .761 | 333 | 1 | 0 |
| SS | 1450 | 543 | .806 | 438 | .825 | 448 | -10 | -8 |
| LF | 1450 | 373 | .860 | 321 | .862 | 321 | -1 | -1 |
| CF | 1450 | 476 | .887 | 423 | .885 | 422 | 1 | 1 |
| RF | 1450 | 362 | .862 | 312 | .868 | 314 | -2 | -2 |
| C | 1450 | -7 | ||||||
| Total | 11600 | 3005 | .831 | 2496 | .836 | 2513 | -17 | -13 |
So overall, the Yankees are projecting to be about 13 runs worse than an average team defensively, which seems bad but for them is pretty good considering some of the teams that they've run out there recently.
So what do all these dorky numbers really mean? The Yankee position players project to score about 938 runs and allow 13 runs more than an average team. According to my Diamond Mind projections which should be released sometime around March 24, the average non-Yankee AL team projects to score 786 runs and be average defensively (shocking, I realize).
938 - 13 - 786 = 139
So the Yankee position players project to be about 14 wins better than an average (81 win team). Now injury or a bigger decline than projected could certainly affect those numbers, but then again a meteor could hit earth and make it all moot too. 81 + 14 = 95 wins. The next question will be whether the pitching staff is going to be able to do their part, which I'll try and answer over the next couple of weeks.
Update: In case any one wants to mess around with different playing times, I've made a spreadsheet that you can use. You can download it here. You can change the players and plate appearances on offense, and on defense you can mess around with innings and positions.
For offense, the projected outs should = the expected outs, you'll have to adjust the plate appearances to get to that. On defense, defensive innings at a position should sum up to 1450.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Those That Missed The Cut Pt. 1
The following is a brief rundown on the prospects THAT did not make my Top 25. Questions, comments, and criticism are welcome. I’m going to attempt to have the Top 25 done by the time ST rolls around, but…no guarantees. The following list isn’t in any specific order. Ages listed are “baseball ages” for the 2008 season.
Eric Duncan, 1B, 23 In Duncan’s time in the Yankee minor league system I have ranked him as the 3rd (‘04), 1st (‘05), 2nd (‘06), and 10th (‘07) best prospect in the organization. While Duncan’s high initial rankings were due in part to the Yankee system being terrible, I think that knowing what I know now, I would not have ranked him as high. 2007 was the same old story for Eric. He drew a good amount of walks and didn’t strike out too much, but an inability to hit for average killed his overall numbers: .241/.323/.389. I’m at the point where I don’t believe Duncan will ever learn to do that and his power, on base skills, and defense aren’t strong enough to make him worthwhile unless he can his average up a lot. The Yankees seem to have soured on Eric as well, leaving him unprotected for the Rule V draft, where no one picked him up. It can no longer be said that “Duncan is so young, players his age are normally in [insert favorable minor league level here]” and being what he is, a “slugger” who has trouble providing offensive value due to an inability to turn quality ABs into quality outcomes, I could not leave him in my top 25.
Chris Garcia, RHP, 22 If he can somehow get healthy and stay that way, Garcia has the ability to make me look stupid for leaving him off. However, having missed time due to TJ surgery and then a knee injury while rehabbing, which followed a ‘06 where he also struggled with injuries…I’m beginning to think Garcia just won’t stay healthy enough for long enough to show why some talent evaluators felt he had more ability than Phil Hughes.
J.B. Cox, RHP, 24 Cox could also make me look foolish, but in my defense, he was one of the last guys cut. I’m confident that he will be back to some level of “normal” this year, but a guy coming off an injury whose projected future ML role is 7th inning guy didn’t strike me as someone I wanted in the top 25.
Tim Norton, RHP, 25 This one really hurts. Norton had filthy stuff. Great low to mid 90s fastball and developing splitter. While the Yankees were using him as a starter, he seemed destined for the bullpen as a shutdown reliever. Unfortunately, 5 starts into his ‘07 he had to undergo shoulder surgery, which is not something I tend to be forgiving with.
Brett Gardner, OF, 24 I think this is the one I’m going to get the most hate for, but…I just don’t see it. I’ve gone over his stat lines numerous times, I’ve seen him play, and I just don’t get the Brett Gardner love. Last year I said he could be “the player that everyone thinks Scott Podsednik is” in ranking him 16th and now I think he might just be the real Scott Podsednik. He is not Jacoby Ellsbury. Brett MAY be just as fast and while they may provide equivalent baserunning value, that’s about the only area where they are comparable. Instead of making him a standout defender, Brett’s speed helps him to be a good one due to his making his share of poor reads on the ball. In addition, at the plate, while Jacoby is never going to hit for much power, he has far more than Brett and that is going to help Jacoby’s skills translate to the major league level. Brett walks a good amount now, but major league pitchers are going to knock the bat out of his hands rather than walk him. He also strikes out way more than a player of his skill set should, but has made progress in that regard. Overall, Brett Gardner is REALLY fast and may one day use that to turn into a 5th OF or something, but that’s not enough.
Steven Jackson, RHP, 26 Jackson is a sinkerballer who gets his share of groundballs, but makes far too many mistakes, leading to an elevated home run rate. Outside of his sinker, 88-92, Jackson didn’t demonstrate much in the way of secondary pitches. He’s looking like a one pitch guy, which eliminates him from being a starter long term, and his one pitch isn’t dominant enough to make him a great reliever, at this point.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, 25 I really like Alberto Gonzalez. It was really tough for me cut a guy from the top 25 who I believe is a really good defender with a developing bat. For the Yankees he could be one of the league’s best backup infielders and on another club he may be a league average SS. I believe that whatever the Yankees did to Gonzalez when he was demoted to AA, it worked because he has been a very different player since then, making a huge cut in his K rate while upping his walk rate. This lasted through his AA time, his return to AAA, and is now carrying over in the winter leagues. Of course, if that improvement isn’t real he’s just a good glove who can’t hit and that’s not worth much.
Steven White, RHP, 27 White has a good fastball, in the low 90s, but it’s not a great fastball. He has decent, if inconsistent, secondary pitches. His control isn’t great. I think he could be Luis Vizcaino, a serviceable reliever, but not much else. He has no long term future starting.
Colin Curtis, OF, 23 Curtis looks like Brett Gardner without the speed. I wanted to believe there was more there last year, but it seems the scouts were correct in writing him off as a ‘tweener. He has time to change this evaluation, but it’s always scary when a guy who lacks power is promoted and proceeds to see good offensive numbers turn into terrible ones due to an increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks.
Chase Wright, LHP, 25 Wright has an average fastball and slightly above average change, but his control and command of all his non-change pitches leaves a lot to be desired. As a result, he is consistently behind in the count and this leads to predictable pitching sequences, which could one day lead to him doing something historic, like giving up a lot of homers in a row or something. The lack of command and control also makes Wright a less than ideal candidate for a bullpen role, so he doesn’t seem to have much of a big league future unless he can learn to command his very average stuff.
Kevin Whelan, RHP, 24 Thanks to a pretty good fastball and splitter combo, Whelan will always have supporters. Unfortunately, his control left him too frequently last year for him to put up the numbers he could/should have. I do wonder how his numbers would have looked if he were limited to just 1 innings more frequently. He’s a guy that I wouldn’t be surprised to see jump back on to the 25 next year.
*To Be Continued*
Sunday, November 18, 2007
CAIRO vs. CHONE - 2008 Yankees edition
While we all wait breathlessly for Mariano Rivera to sign his contract, I noticed that Sean Smith posted his CHONE hitter projections over at his blog. I'm still messing around with my own CAIRO projections so I thought it'd be a good exercise for me to compare what the two say for the Yankees since it now appears the offense is basically set for 2008.And here's what that looks like:
| CAIRO | CHONE | |||||||||||
| Starters | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | ||
| Johnny Damon | LF | 600 | .286 | .357 | .438 | 83 | .275 | .351 | .413 | 78 | ||
| Derek Jeter | SS | 600 | .318 | .388 | .463 | 92 | .299 | .373 | .433 | 84 | ||
| Bobby Abreu | RF | 600 | .284 | .392 | .461 | 94 | .268 | .375 | .422 | 84 | ||
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | 600 | .300 | .402 | .569 | 112 | .303 | .420 | .588 | 117 | ||
| Hideki Matsui | DH | 600 | .291 | .370 | .489 | 92 | .282 | .365 | .473 | 88 | ||
| Jorge Posada | C | 600 | .293 | .392 | .499 | 98 | .285 | .389 | .475 | 93 | ||
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 600 | .312 | .347 | .489 | 87 | .305 | .347 | .479 | 86 | ||
| Wilson Betemit | 1B | 400 | .265 | .338 | .443 | 52 | .254 | .329 | .438 | 51 | ||
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 600 | .281 | .341 | .403 | 72 | .278 | .342 | .397 | 72 | ||
| Starters Total | 5200 | .293 | .371 | .474 | 783 | .284 | .367 | .457 | 754 | |||
| Bench | POS | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | ||
| Jason Giambi | DH | 350 | .256 | .399 | .499 | 57 | .246 | .392 | .474 | 55 | ||
| Shelley Duncan | 1B | 325 | .257 | .322 | .480 | 44 | .235 | .301 | .452 | 40 | ||
| Jose Molina | C | 225 | .250 | .287 | .375 | 22 | .241 | .281 | .360 | 20 | ||
| Alberto Gonzalez | SS | 175 | .250 | .300 | .351 | 16 | .247 | .295 | .335 | 15 | ||
| Bronson Sardinha | RF | 150 | .230 | .293 | .376 | 15 | .240 | .305 | .388 | 16 | ||
| Brett Gardner | CF | 100 | .262 | .333 | .357 | 11 | .253 | .320 | .328 | 10 | ||
| Bench Total | 1325 | .251 | .331 | .427 | 166 | .243 | .323 | .408 | 157 | |||
| AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | |||||
| Team Total | 6525 | .284 | .363 | .464 | 949 | .276 | .358 | .447 | 911 |
BR is batting runs using linear weights. I used the same amount of projected playing time for every single player and assumed 6525 plate appearances (last year's team had about 6550). I also factored in about 20% bench playing time.
What this data shows is that CAIRO is a lot more optimistic than CHONE, to the tune of a 38 run overall difference. My guess is that Sean is using a harsher aging factor than I am or regressing more towards the mean, or perhaps a combination of the two. The difference isn't huge on a player by player basis, but it's fairly significant overall.
Dan Szymborski's ZiPS for the Yankees are up too but since he doesn't have them in a spreadsheet yet I didn't look at how CAIRO compares yet. I'd guess ZiPS will be harsher than CHONE, but I feel pretty comfortable that the Yankees will score 900+ runs next season.
I've also updated the RLYW Lineup Toy with the CHONE projection data.
My posting may be sporadic over the next week or so as I'm heading on vacation but hopefully someone will fill in.
Monday, October 1, 2007
2007 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown - Part One
Well, it took six months to get here, but here we are. The Yankees didn't win the AL East for the first time in 10 seasons, but took advantage of the wild card to get into the tournament. Like most Yankee fans, I was just praying the Yankees would avoid Los Angeles of Anaheim, but I'm reminded of last year when everyone wanted to get the Tigers instead of the Twins, and we saw how well that worked out.The first thing I'd suggest to everyone is to disregard the fact that the Yankees took all six games they played against Cleveland this year. That has no predictive utility as far as what we can expect in this upcoming series.
Today I'm going to look at the position players on both teams to see how they compare on both offense and defense. Regular readers know what this means. It's time for some charts!
First up, the most likely starting lineup for the Indians:
| Starters | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Sizemore,Grady | CF | 2007 | .277 | .390 | .462 | .82 | .916 | 0.07 |
| Proj | .284 | .372 | .490 | .82 | .904 | 0.05 | ||
| Blake,Casey | 3B | 2007 | .270 | .339 | .437 | .65 | .737 | -0.05 |
| Proj | .264 | .333 | .443 | .66 | .738 | -0.05 | ||
| Hafner,Travis | DH | 2007 | .266 | .385 | .451 | .73 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .286 | .400 | .541 | .87 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Martinez,Victor | C | 2007 | .301 | .374 | .505 | .78 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .294 | .369 | .472 | .73 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Garko,Ryan F | 1B | 2007 | .289 | .359 | .483 | .71 | .823 | -0.02 |
| Proj | .276 | .346 | .456 | .65 | .813 | -0.04 | ||
| Peralta,Jhonny | SS | 2007 | .270 | .341 | .430 | .59 | .793 | -0.07 |
| Proj | .272 | .342 | .442 | .61 | .808 | -0.03 | ||
| Lofton,Kenny | LF | 2007 | .296 | .363 | .414 | .60 | .868 | 0.01 |
| Proj | .296 | .353 | .410 | .58 | .853 | -0.02 | ||
| Nixon,Trot | RF | 2007 | .251 | .342 | .336 | .46 | .863 | -0.01 |
| Proj | .257 | .347 | .385 | .52 | .869 | 0.00 | ||
| Cabrera,Asdrubal J | 2B | 2007 | .283 | .354 | .421 | .51 | .847 | 0.06 |
| Proj | .261 | .312 | .378 | .43 | .847 | 0.06 | ||
| Total per game | 2007 | 5.85 | 0.0 | |||||
| Proj | 5.87 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Total per 162 games | 2007 | 947 | -2 | |||||
| Proj | 951 | -6 |
2007
BR/G: Batting runs per game using linear weights
ZR: Actual 2007 zone rating at the listed position
DR/G: Defensive runs saved above average per game
Proj
BR/G: Batting runs per game using linear weights and weighed 2/3 on the player's projection entering 2007 and 1/3 on their actual 2007 stats
ZR: Weighted average ZR at the listed position
DR/G: Defensive runs saved above average per game
One of the mistakes most people make (and one that I am guilty of at times as well) is to focus just on this season when trying to figure out what we can expect projecting forward. To rectify this, I've calculated revised projections on offense and defense for both teams. The projections are just 2/3 of their projections coming into the season and 1/3 of their 2007 actual performance. So after each player, you will see two stat lines. The first is their actual 2007 performance, and the second is their revised projection. For players who spent time in the minors I've included their MLEs(major league equivalencies).
BR/G is an estimate of how many batting runs per game a player will provide from the lineup slot they are slotted in. For this exercise, I did not do any position-adjustments because I just want to compare the relative strengths of the whole lineup.
ZR is the player's zone rating at the position they are listed at. I then calculate their defensive runs saved per game assuming a typical distribution of chances.
So looking at the Indians, as a collective group they've played right around where their projections say they should be. They're an average defensive team for the most part, and a strong lineup that would score 950 runs or so if they could run all their starters out there 162 times.
It all starts at the top with Grady Sizemore. Overall on the season Sizemore was worth about twenty runs more than an average CF on offense and was +11 defensively, so he was three wins better than an average CF, or five wins better than a replacement-level one. Sizemore has issues with left-handed pitching (career OPS of .922 vs righties, .716 vs lefties) but the current Yankee staff is not really able to exploit that. I suppose the Yankees could consider using Ron Villone against him in a key spot or something.
Casey Blake is a decent hitter (career OPS+ of 106). He's versatile enough to play the infield corners or see some spot duty in the OF, but right now he's Cleveland's starting third baseman.
Travis "Pronk" Hafner is a scary hitter who had a down year after three outstanding seasons. Hafner led the American League in OPS+ from 2004-2006. Hafner season line was disappointing for him, but he appears to be heating up as he hit .316/.414/.551 in September. He's another player who has a platoon split, but again the Yankees don't have the personnel to do anything about it.
Victor Martinez was worth 29 runs above the average catcher on offense this season. Only Jorge Posada was better. Martinez also reversed a trend of bad defense. I have him as +4 runs above an average catcher this season.
The Indians' 1, 3, and 4 hitters are a damn good group collectively. I'd put them up with anyone in baseball's right now.
Ryan Garko's a touch above average offensively for a first baseman, and a touch below average defensively.
Jhonny Peralta looked like he was going to be the next great shortstop in his age 23 season, putting up an OPS+ of 139 and being 11 runs above average defensively. He dropped to an OPS+ of 85 at age 24 in addition to losing 14 runs of defensive value. He rebounded a bit this season with an OPS+ of 105 but his defense got worse. Overall, he's an average SS but he's talented enough to be dangerous in a short series.
Kenny Lofton's homecoming to Cleveland hasn't gone all that well, as he's hit .283/.344/.370 after being acquired from Texas earlier in the season. He's been average in LF after playing mainly CF for Texas. His overall season line is still certainly respectable, and he's still a stolen base threat even at age 40. Lofton will probably be platooned with Jason Michaels against Andy Pettitte.
Trot Nixon is no stranger to Yankee fans. He may not get all the starts in RF as the Indians have 24 year old Franklin Gutierrez as well as the aforementioned Michaels and David Dellucci around.
Asdrubal Cabrera appears to have won the second base job from the disappointing Josh Barfield. At just 21 years old he's put up an OPS+ of 107 (in very limited playing time) as well as playing plus defense at all three infield skill positions (again in a very small sample size).
The thing that stands out for me is that are no dead spots in the lineup. Top to bottom, if the Indians start Cabrera at second, Gutierrez in RF and Lofton in LF every player has an OPS+ greater than 100 on the season.
Cleveland's lineup is pretty solid, but they also have a pretty good bench.
| Bench | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Gomez,Chris | 1B | 2007 | .297 | .317 | .374 | .44 | .700 | -0.19 |
| Proj | .286 | .328 | .368 | .46 | .805 | -0.05 | ||
| Shoppach,Kelly B | C | 2007 | .261 | .310 | .472 | .58 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .240 | .307 | .437 | .54 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Barfield,Josh L | 2B | 2007 | .243 | .270 | .324 | .34 | .806 | -0.04 |
| Proj | .259 | .300 | .389 | .47 | .812 | -0.03 | ||
| Gutierrez,Franklin R | RF | 2007 | .266 | .318 | .472 | .58 | .971 | 0.20 |
| Proj | .260 | .316 | .433 | .54 | .971 | 0.20 | ||
| Michaels,Jason | LF | 2007 | .270 | .324 | .397 | .48 | .858 | -0.01 |
| Proj | .267 | .334 | .406 | .52 | .851 | -0.02 | ||
| Dellucci,David | LF | 2007 | .230 | .297 | .382 | .45 | .835 | -0.05 |
| Proj | .244 | .329 | .427 | .55 | .835 | -0.05 |
As I mentioned above, Gutierrez is a name to watch out for, as I could see him taking starts away from Trot Nixon. Other than that I'd expect the starting lineup to remain pretty consistent. Kelly Shoppach is the best backup catcher in the league BTW. He was the seventh most valuable offensive catcher in the AL despite only getting 177 plate appearances. Chris Gomez and Barfield are around as glove men primarily, although Gomez is not an automatic out. Dellucci missed most of the season but appeared in a couple of games last week so he may be back on the roster.
Here's how the Yankees starting nine compare.
| Starters | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Damon,Johnny | LF | 2007 | .270 | .351 | .396 | .68 | .861 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .283 | .358 | .438 | .73 | .870 | 0.01 | ||
| Jeter,Derek | SS | 2007 | .322 | .388 | .452 | .75 | .765 | -0.14 |
| Proj | .322 | .387 | .452 | .76 | .803 | -0.05 | ||
| Abreu,Bobby | RF | 2007 | .283 | .369 | .445 | .72 | .858 | -0.02 |
| Proj | .279 | .382 | .446 | .74 | .863 | -0.01 | ||
| Rodriguez,Alex | 3B | 2007 | .314 | .422 | .645 | 1.04 | .765 | 0.01 |
| Proj | .296 | .397 | .568 | .91 | .762 | 0.00 | ||
| Matsui,Hideki | DH | 2007 | .285 | .367 | .488 | .72 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .287 | .373 | .478 | .72 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Posada,Jorge | C | 2007 | .338 | .426 | .543 | .86 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .285 | .385 | .477 | .72 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Cano,Robinson | 2B | 2007 | .306 | .353 | .488 | .66 | .846 | 0.06 |
| Proj | .307 | .347 | .477 | .64 | .832 | 0.02 | ||
| Cabrera,Melky | CF | 2007 | .273 | .327 | .391 | .49 | .903 | 0.04 |
| Proj | .279 | .333 | .402 | .52 | .893 | 0.02 | ||
| Mientkiewicz,Doug | 1B | 2007 | .277 | .350 | .440 | .53 | .831 | -0.01 |
| Proj | .260 | .330 | .401 | .48 | .871 | 0.04 | ||
| Total per game | 2007 | 6.45 | -0.1 | |||||
| Proj | 6.22 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Total per 162 games | 2007 | 1045 | -11 | |||||
| Proj | 1008 | 7 |
I'd assume this is the lineup of choice based on the last few weeks, and honestly the way Doug Mientkiewicz is hitting now I wouldn't mess with it. As good as Cleveland's lineup is, the Yankees project to be around fifty runs better over a full season.
Johnny Damon is hitting .319/.370/.496 since June 21 (over 55 games). He's also playing very good LF defense recently. If you take out his first four games in LF he has a zone rating of .881 which would be equivalent to being a +6 defender over a full season.
Derek Jeter has been dealing with nagging injuries this year, and it's hurt his offense and his defense. He was still a +22 offensive player this season, but last year he was +48. Jeter had an OPS of .871 pre-All Star Break and .804 after. He ended the year at -20 runs defensively compared to an average AL SS, so he did at least hit enough to compensate for his defensive weakness this year.
Bobby Abreu is the bellwether for my favorite selective endpoint of the season, May 30. From that date on, Abreu hit .309/.396/.520 with 14 HRs and 34 2Bs. When Abreu hits, the Yankees score runs in bunches. In Yankee wins, Abreu hit .298/.374/.470. In Yankee losses, he hit .259/.361/.410. He's also playing passable defense in RF overall. On the season he was -3 runs defensively but over his last 52 games he was +1.
Alex Rodriguez. You know the deal. He's the best player in the American League and will be under an intense microscope from the start. We'll see how it goes.
Hideki Matsui fell off pretty badly after a ridiculous hot streak. From Jul 3 to Aug 25, Matsui hit an amazing .365/.423/.651 with 15 HRs in 48 games. Over the last 25 games he's hit just .196/.312/.359. A hot Matsui can carry the team, but a cold one could bury them. Hopefully the extended break gets his knees healthier. In his career, Matsui has hit .308/.382/.555 as a DH, which is the role I expect him to play in the postseason.
Jorge Posada has hit .241/.358/.388 in the postseason in his career. It'd be nice if he could do better than that this year.
Robinson Cano can be maddeningly streaky. A look at his raw stat line might make it seem like he fell off this year, but there were some encouraging signs of development. Cano drew 34 non-intentional walks this season after drawing a total of 30 in his first two season. His Isolated Power (SLG - AVG) was just about the same as last year. He didn't hit as many line drives as he did in 2006 overall, and that is a at least part of the explanation for the drop in average. Through May 15 he was hitting .234/.276/.312 with 7 BB and 29 Ks in 152 plate appearances. So he was walking in 4.6% of his plate appearances and fanning in 19.1%. From May 16 on he hit .328/.376/.540 with 32 BB and 56 Ks in 517 plate appearances, so he walked in 6.1% of his plate appearances and whiffed in 10.8%. One last thing about Cano. Last year he was worth 21 runs above an average 2B offensively and he was basically average defensively. This year he's been worth 14 runs above average on offense but he was also a +9 defender, so overall he was a touch more valuable in 2007 than 2006.
Melky Cabrera has fallend off dramatically in the second half of the season on offense. He peaked on Aug 13 with a line of .302/.351/.452. Since then he's hit .203/.269/.241. It could be related to fatigue or it could be that Melky was playing over his head and came back down to earth. My guess is it's a combination of both things. He ended the season -12 runs on offense and +6 runs on defense, so he was below average overall. This doesn't include the value of his arm, which may boost him back up close to average.
Doug Mientkiewicz was a signing that most Yankee fans hated. No, Mientkiewicz isn't a great player, but there were very few options available this offseason. After returning from his injury, Mientkiewicz hit .429/.510/.619, which pushed his season line to an OPS+ of 112. He's also put up a zone rating of .900 since then. No, he's not that good, but I'd expect him to be able to play good defense and get on base at a respectable clip. Jason Giambi's bat just never got going so I think Mientkiewicz gets the nod here, and I have a tough time quibbling about it.
One thing the Yankees need to be cognizant of is that Cleveland has two tough lefty relievers in Rafael Perez and Aaron Fultz. Lefties have hit .142/.214/.217 against Perez in his career, and have hit .236/.303/.349 against Fultz in his career. If the Yankees use the lineup above they will limit their vulnerability to the platoon advantage. The Yankees will also have Shelley Duncan looming in the background if they need to pinch-hit for Mientkiewicz against a lefty (although Mientkiewicz has historically hit lefties a bit better than righties). Something I found interesting is that the Yankee offense has overperformed expectations. That's probably easily explained by Rodriguez and Posada blowing away their projections.
Meanwhile, the defense has underperformed expectations slightly this season although it's still probably the best defensive team they've had since the late 90s. They actually project to be an at least average defensive team. Damon in left is a big upgrade on Matsui, Melky in center is a big upgrade on Damon in center, Abreu is an upgrade over Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez 2007 is an upgrade on Alex Rodriguez 2005 and 2006, and Robinson Cano projects to be above average as well, although maybe not as good as he's been in 2007. And the shortstop bangs supermodels.
Speaking of Shelley Duncan, here's the Yankee bench.
| Bench | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Giambi,Jason | DH | 2007 | .236 | .356 | .433 | .59 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .247 | .394 | .488 | .70 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Betemit,Wilson | 3B | 2007 | .229 | .331 | .454 | .59 | .721 | -0.09 |
| Proj | .248 | .326 | .442 | .56 | .721 | -0.09 | ||
| Molina,Jose | C | 2007 | .257 | .267 | .340 | .36 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .244 | .274 | .353 | .39 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Duncan,Shelly S | 1B | 2007 | .265 | .341 | .533 | .78 | 1.000 | 0.22 |
| Proj | .271 | .347 | .542 | .78 | .825 | -0.02 |
The Yankee bench is also strong this season, which is usually not the case. There are three legit power threats on the bench in Jason Giambi, Duncan and Wilson Betemit. Jose Molina's projected OPS of .627 isn't very good, but he probably won't have to play all that much and he's a good defender. I could see Giambi getting a few starts at first base if Mientkiewicz struggles or if he succeeds in a pinch-hitting role.
I didn't include Bronson Sardinha or Alberto Gonzalez in here because it's doubtful they'd be used for anything other than pinch-running. The thing is, if Giambi is not starting who do you pinch run for? Posada? I wouldn't risk losing his bat in any games.
Overall, the straight lineup comparison seems to favor the Yankees on both offense and defense, but the Indians do present some matchup problems for the Yankees with Fultz, Perez and C.C. Sabathia, so keep that in mind. I'll write up the pitchers in a day or two.
Incidentally, as torrid as the Yankees have been in the second half, since August 15th the Indians have been better. Cleveland has gone 31-12 since that date, a .721 winning percentage. The Yankees have gone 27-16, a .628 winning percentage.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Picking the 2007 Postseason Roster
Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs, I can finally talk about the postseason roster. With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster. Here’s a look at the candidates, with the players on the bubble separated out.
Starting Pitchers(4)
Andy Pettitte
Roger Clemens
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Relief Pitchers(5)
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
Kyle Farnsworth
Luis Vizcaino
On the Bubble
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Tyler Clippard
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Sean Henn
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Ian Kennedy
Ross Ohlendorf
Edwar Ramirez
Catchers(2)
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada
Infielders(5)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Doug Mientkiewicz
Alex Rodriguez
Wilson Betemit
On the Bubble
Alberto Gonzalez
Outfielders (5)
Bobby Abreu
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Shelley Duncan
Hideki Matsui
On the Bubble
Bronson Sardinha
Designated Hitters(1)
Jason Giambi
There are 22 players I consider locks to make the roster, four starting pitchers, five relievers, two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders, and one DH. That gives the Yanks three slots to fill. If it were up to me, I’d take two more pitchers and one position player.
The position player seems like an easy choice to me, if choosing between Alberto Gonzalez or Bronson Sardinha I’d take the more valuable defensive player. Either can pinch-run, but Gonzalez gives the Yankees a little more depth in case of multiple injuries to their starting infielders.
The pitching situation is a little less clear-cut. Phil Hughes slots in as a long reliever, but the rest of the choices are mainly short relievers and that’s a concern with a gimpy Roger Clemens and Mike “Box of Chocolates” Mussina taking two starts. Because of this, one of the extra relievers should probably be someone who can pitch multiple innings. Out of the players on the bubble, the best choices for that kind of role in my mind are Kei Igawa or Ron Villone. Neither inspires much confidence, but we have to remember that you don’t have to win every single game in the playoffs, you just have to win 3 or 4 before your opponent does. If Clemens can’t go past the second inning, odds are the game is lost but you don’t want to have to burn out your bullpen either. The off days built into the schedule mitigate that to some degree. The other thing the Yankees should do is break up Pettitte and Wang. Since they’ll be starting on the road, I’d start Pettitte in game one, Clemens in game two, and Wang in game three at home. However, to be safe I think the Yankees should take Igawa. I know he hasn’t been good this year, but he could come into a game in the early innings and pitch 5 or 6 innings and put the Yankees in a position to win the next game. Now all the readers can proceed to tell me I’m insane.
That leaves one other pitcher to take. Ian Kennedy’s hurt so scratch him. Realistically it comes down to taking one of Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Villone, Ross Ohlendorf or Edwar Ramirez.
Britton - had success in the AL East last year and did well in AAA this season. For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to be well-regarded by the organization right now, and his stuff isn’t really that great for a short reliever.
Bruney - You know the deal with this guy. Great fastball, horrendous command.
Veras - See Bruney, although with a slightly better breaking pitch. I swear I have not seen Veras hit the catcher’s target on a single pitch yet this season.
Villone - Chock full of veterany-goodness. Hasn’t been horrible this year, but his control scares the hell out of me and he has a very high likelihood to implode in any given outing.
Ohlendorf - He’s looked pretty good so far in the majors, but it’s only been three innings. He’s got good stuff but his minor league numbers are pretty bad, but he was injured for much of the year and converted from a starter to a reliever so that should be considered.
Ramirez - I was pulling like hell for Edwar to come up the majors and succeed, but he still needs to work on his approach IMO. Until he can consistently get ahead in the count and make optimal use of his killer changeup, I wouldn’t have any faith in him in a tight spot. He does have strikeout ability (29 Ks in 19.3 innings), but he also has giving up HR ability (6 in 19.3 innings). He’s probably pitched himself off the postseason roster at this point.
Not a very inspiring bunch. I’d imagine we’ll get a healthy dose of all of these guys over the last four games of the year to see if one becomes a hot hand. I find Ohlendorf the most intriguing of this group, so he’d probably be my pick.
I’d like to see what other people would do instead of me, so let’s hear it…
Sunday, April 8, 2007
Ohlie Cow
4.7.07 Review:
Ross Ohlendorf made his first start of the year for AAA Scranton and wasn’t that great. Typically allergic to walks, Ohlendorf had no such luck on this day. It wasn’t so much that he was wild with his pitches and couldn’t find the zone as it was that he was just missing off the edges. In addition, the opposition was able to place their hits in the right place and the result was a less than pleasant final line. While watching Ohlendorf, I couldn’t help, but think that he just does not impress me that much. His fastball velocity is good, getting up to 94 MPH, he keeps the ball down, and he typically has excellent control. That might seem like enough, but I’m concerned with the movement or lack thereof on his pitches. Even his sinker did not seem to have great sinking motion as it was that he was simply keeping the ball down. I might be wrong, but I’ll try to keep an eye on this. Finally, for what it’s worth, he does seem to have quite the physical presence on the mound.
Eric Duncan had a third straight positive game. Once again, he did a good job on defense and at the plate. The key moment for him, offensively, was during the 6th inning when he blasted a home run to right center field to give Scranton their winning margin. He also drew a walk on the day as he consistently had patient, quality at bats. One thing that has stuck out about Duncan is that he seems to love the ball low and middle of the plate to low and out.
Alberto Gonzalez…to be honest, I didn’t even realize he played, so I don’t have much to say regarding his performance.
Around The Minors:
Alan Horne began his season in solid fashion. Judging by the box score, he might have tired down the stretch, but it was a fine start for Horne and the guys such as Mike from River Ave Blues and Bryan Smith, who believe that Horne could be headed for big things.
Brett Gardner was 2 for 5 with his first extra base hit, a triple, first stolen base, and first strikeout of the season. I’m hoping he does lots of two of those things. For a guy with all the speed Gardner has, you’d like to see him exceed his 2006 total of 24 combined doubles and triples.
George Kontos made his full season debut for Tampa yesterday and went 6 solid innings. He would give up 2 runs on 1 homer, 6 overall hits, while striking out 5 and walking 1. I expect a lot out of serious pitching prospects in the Florida State League, so this start was just ok to me.
Jose Tabata managed to have another terrific day. The 18-year-old phenom was 2 for 3 with an opposite field home run as well as a walk and a strikeout. Oh yeah, he also picked up his second steal of the season. Given his age and his environment, I was expecting something along the lines of .300/.365/.425 from Tabata. It’s early, but I might have to raise my expectations and I’m not upset about that.
The guy most likely to be affected by when/if Tabata is promoted to Trenton, Austin Jackson, had a good day at the plate as well. Jackson was 2 for 3 with a walk and his first stolen base of the season. Jackson seems to think that a lot of his struggles last year were due to the fatigue of playing baseball full-time for the first time. I believe him and hopefully his performance validates that belief.
Finally, Wilmer Pino was 1 for 3 with a double and a steal. I saw Pino last season at Staten Island, and was impressed by him. He’s a hacker, but seems to have a solid set of tools and I’m rooting for him.
Spotlight On:
Eric Duncan’s bat and Matt DeSalvo’s comeback. Scranton it is.
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Hughes’ AAA Debut
4.6.07 Review:
Phil Hughes made his AAA debut last night and did so in impressive fashion. He worked in the low 90s with his fastball and spotted it to the corners and was able to go to his curveball for swings and misses as well. While Nardi Contreras was recently quoted as saying he’s impressed with how much Hughes’ changeup has advanced this past spring, I wasn’t able to confirm or deny that because Hughes didn’t go to the pitch that much. He might have just been trying to keep it simple for his AAA debut. Another thing I picked up on Hughes was that he seemed focus to get the out at 2nd whenever the ball was tapped back to him and there was a runner on first. For the most part, this strategy worked out last night, but I’m not sure how great of a tendency this is. After all, the last thing we need is to endanger The Hitting Machine™.
Also impressing in the Scranton game was Eric Duncan. Duncan was only 1 for 4 in the box score, but the 1 was an impressive home run to right-center field. In addition, in the at bat prior to the homer, Duncan hit a long fly ball to left-center field. Every at bat was a quality one and Duncan is looking good thus far in 2007. I was once again pleased with his defensive play.
Alberto Gonzalez had another nondescript afternoon with the most noteworthy moment being the 4 pitch walk he drew in his first plate appearance. The odds of this happening again are probably not great. His two hits were also of the right place at the right time variety as he hit one off of the 2B, which was a play that could have been made, and the other was a tapper.
Around The Minors:
Elsewhere in the minors, Jeff Marquez started his season off with 5 no-hit innings before finally giving in in the 6th. I was very encouraged by the start for Marquez as I have him rated higher than everyone else and as long as he keeps his walks in check, I feel confident he’ll make me look good.
Ian Kennedy made short work of the competition in Tampa, striking out 8 in 5 innings and really, he should not be long for Tampa. I expect him to consistently put up big strikeout totals in the FSL until the Yankees promote him. Most noteworthy, for me at least, will be his GB:FB ratio. He’s supposedly been working on a 2-seamer.
Jose Tabata continues to dominate in the early going as he was 3 for 4 with a triple and a strikeout. It’s early, but Tabata looks like he wants to make good on his goal of reaching Trenton and proving, by the end of the year, that he can hit big league pitching.
Austin Jackson showed off his newfound power in Charleston last night going 2 for 4 with a double and a home run. The double was to center and the home run was to left-center.
Spotlight On:
You could go with Scranton, where Ross Ohlendorf is making his system debut. At the same time, you could go with Tampa where Joba should be making his full-season debut. The choice is yours. I’m more interested in Joba, I think.
Friday, April 6, 2007
Clippard’s AAA Debut
Opening Night Review:
Tyler Clippard was solid in his AAA debut last night. He had a little trouble locating the fastball, but could go to the curve and the change for outs whenever he got into a jam. While his fastball isn’t particularly fast, he does seem to get a good deal of movement on it. Some of that is unintended as it sails on him from time to time. His command of his secondary pitches appears to be superior to his fastball command, which could explain some of the “Clippard pitches backwards” stuff that’s heard from time to time.
Eric Duncan looked ok at the plate. He had a couple of poor appearances against a good pitcher, Hayden Penn, but also knocked a looooong opposite field double off the wall. Defensively, he looked much improved from when I saw him last year. His actions around the bag appeared smoother and more confident, which was my primary point of concern with his defensive game.
Alberto Gonzalez was up hacking and did not last long enough in any of his Abs to take note of anything other than the fact that he likes to swing. In the field he didn’t do anything noteworthy.
Around The Minors:
-Chase Wright pitched a phenomenal game for Trenton. He went 7 and struck out 9 while giving up 3 hits and 0 walks. Wright was pretty impressive in spring training, despite some control problems. He’s fairly old to be considered a big time prospect, but he might be Ron Villone, we’ll see.
-Jose Tabata started his season off right by singling and immediately stealing a base.
-Tim Norton also got started correctly by tossing 5 innings of 1 hit shutout baseball. He also took the time to strike out 5 while just walking 1. Despite concerns about his secondary pitches, I doubt Norton will be long for Charleston.
Spotlight On:
-Scranton is once again the affiliate to watch as Phil Hughes makes his 2007 debut.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
What To Watch in 2007 (Minor Leagues)
Minor league opening day, the real opening day, is finally upon us. After much pomp and circumstance about the improvement in the quality of the Yankee farm system, it’s finally time to see who is going to back up their winter press clippings with impressive performances. With that in mind, here are a few players to watch/listen to internet audio/keep track of in box scores:
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Scranton
Clippard has succeeded at every level thus far in his minor league career, but because he does not throw particularly hard, he still has his share of doubters. He will be taking the mound for Scranton today as he attempts to pass his final minor league test. I am a big fan of Clippard and expect him to do what he has done at every other level: ERA in the low to mid 3s, eat innings, and strike out lots of guys.
Eric Duncan, 1B, Scranton
The Yankees have decided to start Duncan off at Scranton. No doubt, they feel that the hitting he did for the first 180 or so plate appearances in AA last year represent the real Duncan. If he can stay away from any recurring back problems, I expect Duncan to surprise a lot of people and put himself in line for a shot at the 1B job come next spring. Strikeouts have not been a problem for him for some time now and it is just a matter of knowing that his back is healthy so that he can drive the ball when he does connect.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, Scranton
With the A-Rod saga developing to the point where it is not set in stone that he will be a member of the 2008 Yankees, Gonzalez goes from future super utility player to potential infield regular. There is a weak 3B market coming up and if A-Rod bolts, the Yankees might look within. If they do, the quality of the season Gonzalez has will play a large role in deciding how confidently the Yankees go in that direction.
Brett Gardner, CF, Trenton
Gardner can run really, really, really fast. He also knows how to take a walk. Those two skills will not mean much if he fails to hit with enough power to stop pitchers from attempting to knock the bat out of his hands. He already strikes out a lot for someone of the speedy leadoff man ilk, so it will be interesting to watch whether the strikeouts increase as he tries to hit for at least gap power. I doubt he is going to show much power and will probably have to settle for being rated as a future 4th OF/defensive replacement, but I hope he does better.
Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, Tampa
Marcos has impressed everyone with his defensive performance for some time now, but it is time for the bat to start catching up. He is another guy whose season becomes just a little bit more crucial with A-Rod’s status as a Yankee up in the air. I’ve always been a big Vechionacci supporter and given that he looked stronger in spring training I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and expect a year that has him ending in Trenton.
Ian Kennedy, RHP, Tampa
Kennedy is basically Clippard with a smaller build. Much like Clippard, he’s going to have to prove himself every step of the way. Tampa is step 1.
Jose Gil, C, Charleston
I love Gil’s swing. I love his sense of the strike-zone. I think he’s got defensive potential. This year he’s going to cease switch-hitting and just stick to being a righty batter, hopefully he begins to live up to my expectations.
The overall team to track this year is Tampa as it will have the most prospects. Scranton should also be good for keeping track of the potential rotation injury replacements. Finally, for those that were not aware, Dellin Betances and Zach McAllister did not make the opening day Charleston roster. I’m not sure why, but I would speculate that it was due to refinements being made to their motion (Betances) or pitches (McAllister).
And finally, if you’re into prospects, I highly recommend going to minorleaguebaseball.com and subscribing to MiLB.tv and enjoy watching the outstanding Scranton rotation so that when one of them makes it to the bigs, you can tell your friends all about what to expect.
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