Wednesday, July 11, 2007
2007 Yankee Defense at the All Star Break
Wrapping up my All Star Break review of the Yankees so far, here's how their defense rates by zone rating. If you want to read a good explanation about zone rating, you should read this article by Chris Dial, but I am going to run through an example as well, to try and clarify exactly what the numbers that will follow mean.I could pick on Derek Jeter, but I'm not going to go there. Instead I'm going to look at the brightest spot on the Yankee defense so far, Robinson Cano. We all know Cano's been a disappointment on offense, but let's look at his defense.
To help clarify the numbers I'm about to run through, here's the Stats Inc. Zone Rating grid, with the 2B area of responsiblity highlighted.
Any ball hit in that highlighted area that is converted into an out at least 50% of the time is considered a fieldable chance for a second baseman. This is based on observation by Stats Inc. scorers, but there are three people scoring these at every game and they score them independently to help cut down on subjectivity.
When a fielder has a ball hit into their zone of responsiblity, they are given a fieldable chance, which is the denominator in ZR. When they convert that into an out, it's considered a play made. When a fielder makes a play that is not his defined zone, it gets added to his chances and plays made so they get credit for it. The question is if they get enough credit for doing so, which is one limitation of zone rating. Another limitation is the zones of responsiblity are fixed, and do not account for positioning. This is a limitation when trying to assess a player's actual talent, but as far as their value in any given time, I don't think it's much of one. If a player is not put into position to make more plays than he is, that means they are not as valuable to their team as they should be, regardless of who is responsible for the positioning.
ZR is expressed as a three digit decimal from 0 to 1, and it's just plays made divided by fieldable chances. So if a player has 10 fieldable chances hit into his defined zone and converts 8 of them into outs, his ZR is .800. Plays are either made or not made in ZR. If a player makes an error, it's no worse than if their range never let them get to the ball in the first place.
So let's get back to Cano. Cano has played 84 games this season, and 747 defensive innings at second base. He has seen 274 fieldable chances, and has a ZR of .880. So we multiply his fieldable chances by .880 to get his plays made, which is 241.
The next thing we do is multiply the chances that Cano has had times the average ZR, to get an average plays made. This assumes that the types of chances a player faces over the course of a period are the same, and it's not necessarily true. Players could have stretches where they face easier chances or more difficult chances, which is why you will see players' defensive numbers fluctuate from season. Again, I consider this a limitation when trying to assess a player's ability, but not their value. This is the type of thing that should even out over time, which makes multi-year zone rating a decent gauge of a player's defensive talent.
In the American League, the average 2B has a ZR of .831. I separate the leagues because I've noticed systemic differences in the infields, and I assume it's at least partly due to pitchers "hitting." So, using the .831 avg ZR times Cano's 274 chances, we get an average plays made of 228. We subtract this from Cano's actual plays made to get a difference. 241 - 228 = 13, so Cano has converted 13 more plays into outs than average. This difference is then multiplied by the average run value of a play at that position, which was calculated by Dial and is based on the linear weights values of the single or XBH that the play would turn into if it is not made, as well as the marginal value of the out that was not recorded.
Here are the run values for the average plays at each position.
POS RV
1B: .798
2B: .754
3B: .800
CF: .842
LF: .831
RF: .843
SS: .753
For 2B, the average play is worth .754 runs, so we multiply that by Cano's +13 plays made and get a runs saved above average of 10. To calculate this over a full season, you just divide the runs saved by the innings played and multiply by 1440 innings.
Credit for this methodology goes to Chris Dial and his article Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Zone Rating and to Chone Smith and his article Tweaking Zone Rating. Without them breaking zone rating down this clearly for me I never would have been able to understand it.
The same basic idea is used for figuring out all players except pitchers and catchers, and here are the numbers for the Yanks.
| Player | TM | LG | Pos | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | DP | Ch | PM | ZR | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 84 | 84 | 747 | 178 | 271 | 6 | 78 | 274 | 241 | .880 | .831 | 228 | 13 | 10 | 19 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 83 | 83 | 724 | 63 | 149 | 5 | 15 | 207 | 168 | .812 | .762 | 158 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | CF | 59 | 48 | 445 | 154 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 152 | .916 | .889 | 148 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | LF | 18 | 16 | 142 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 31 | .912 | .872 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 3B | 7 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | .900 | .762 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 45 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | SS | 8 | 2 | 36.2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | .889 | .824 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 35 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1.000 | .859 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | .859 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Giambi, Jason | NYY | AL | 1B | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | .842 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | .762 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 0 | 4.1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieves, Wil | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .762 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | CF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .889 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | SS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .824 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | LF | 4 | 1 | 13.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | .833 | .872 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -21 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 1B | 13 | 10 | 90.1 | 85 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 16 | 13 | .813 | .842 | 13 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | .750 | .831 | 7 | -1 | 0 | -41 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | LF | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .872 | 3 | -1 | -1 | -57 |
| Phelps, Josh | NYY | AL | 1B | 29 | 20 | 162.2 | 167 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 22 | .815 | .842 | 23 | -1 | -1 | -5 |
| Abreu, Bobby | NYY | AL | RF | 84 | 81 | 720 | 156 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 156 | .852 | .859 | 157 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .872 | 3 | -2 | -1 | -215 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | CF | 41 | 38 | 318 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 104 | .874 | .889 | 106 | -2 | -1 | -7 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | NYY | AL | 1B | 48 | 36 | 330.1 | 353 | 14 | 2 | 46 | 59 | 47 | .797 | .842 | 50 | -3 | -2 | -9 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 1B | 21 | 17 | 155.1 | 161 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 42 | 32 | .762 | .842 | 35 | -3 | -3 | -25 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYY | AL | LF | 68 | 67 | 586.1 | 131 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 127 | .836 | .872 | 132 | -5 | -5 | -11 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 84 | 83 | 726.1 | 128 | 246 | 13 | 69 | 295 | 227 | .769 | .824 | 243 | -16 | -12 | -24 |
| Total | 678 | 601 | 5345.2 | 1765 | 748 | 42 | 261 | 1633 | 1370 | .839 | .840 | 1371 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
Legend
INN - Innings
PO - Putouts
A - Assists
E - Errors
DP - Double plays
Ch - Fieldable chances
PM - Plays made
ZR - Zone Rating
AvgZR - Average ZR
AvgPM - Average PM
Diff - PM minus AvgPM
RS - Runs saved
RS/162 - Runs saved pro-rated to 162 games
So yeah, Cano's been great. Also great, Alex Rodriguez, who has rebounded from two sub-par years at third after a solid 2004 defensively. Melky's flashing a plus glove in LF and CF and this doesn't even include his arm.
The rest of the numbers seem to match my observations pretty well, although I'd have pegged Abreu to be a little worse and Matsui to be a bit better. This is part of the reason I've grown fond of zone rating. It's freely available, it's easy to convert to runs, and for the most part the players I think are good and bad defenders show up as such in ZR.
These numbers are not meant to be an absolute assessment of either a players' defensive ability or value. First of all, we're dealing with a small sample size. The difference between Jeter being average or horrible is about one play a week. Second of all, as I've listed above, there are limitations in zone rating which need to be acknowledged and understood. Over at Bronx Banter the other day there was a heated discussion about defensive metrics and their pros and cons. The way I described it to someone over there is this. Let's say you have a group of hitters, and the only thing you know about him is their batting averages. Would you prefer to use your visual observations of the players' abilities and whether they have good at bats, or would you rather use batting average to determine their skill at least partially, even acknowledging that batting average has limitations? That's kind of where I think defensive metrics should fall into place.
For catchers, I use a combination of passed balls and stolen base percentage. It's not a great method because pitchers deserve some of the blame for stolen bases, but again, if we think of it in terms of value instead of ability it's better than nothing.
| NAME | GP | GS | INN | TC | PO | A | E | DP | FPCT | PB | SB | CS | CS% | CERA | RS | RS/150 |
| Jorge Posada, NYY | 77 | 68 | 621 | 427 | 394 | 30 | 3 | 2 | .993 | 3 | 61 | 19 | 0.24 | 4.42 | -3 | -7 |
| Wil Nieves, NYY | 21 | 18 | 142 | 105 | 99 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .990 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.23 | 4.12 | -1 | -5 |
| Josh Phelps, NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Posada's defense has typically been average or slightly below, but he was great last year. He's back below average this year, but he's hitting more than well enough to compensate. Wil Nieves has a wonderful smile, which is apparently all he needs to have to be the Yankees' backup catcher.
With the pitching, offense and defense all assessed it's time to see where everyone on the Yankees ranks in terms of overall value, so here you go.
| Last | BR | DR | PR | TR |
| Rodriguez | 33 | 8 | 42 | |
| Wang | 18 | 18 | ||
| Posada | 19 | -3 | 16 | |
| Bruney | 8 | 8 | ||
| Cano | -2 | 10 | 8 | |
| Myers | 7 | 7 | ||
| Clemens | 6 | 6 | ||
| Matsui | 8 | -5 | 4 | |
| Rivera | 3 | 3 | ||
| Villone | 3 | 3 | ||
| Jeter | 15 | -12 | 2 | |
| Pettitte | 2 | 2 | ||
| Hughes | 2 | 2 | ||
| Britton | 2 | 2 | ||
| Giambi | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Proctor | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cabrera | -5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Mussina | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ramirez | 0 | 0 | ||
| Phillips | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Basak | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rasner | -1 | -1 | ||
| Thompson | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Pavano | -1 | -1 | ||
| Henn | -1 | -1 | ||
| Farnsworth | -1 | -1 | ||
| Bean | -2 | -2 | ||
| Wright | -3 | -3 | ||
| Vizcaino | -3 | -3 | ||
| Desalvo | -3 | -3 | ||
| Phelps | -3 | -1 | -4 | |
| Clippard | -4 | -4 | ||
| Karstens | -5 | -5 | ||
| Damon | -4 | -3 | -6 | |
| Cairo | -5 | -2 | -7 | |
| Abreu | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Nieves | -7 | -1 | -8 | |
| Mientkiewicz | -6 | -2 | -8 | |
| Igawa | -13 | -13 | ||
| Total | 38 | -6 | 15 | 47 |
BR = Batting runs
DR = Defensive runs
PR = Pitching runs
TR = Total runs
I'd take Bruney and Myers's high ranking with a big grain of salt. It may be better to use a linear weights type formula for relievers' value to the team since ERA or RA can hide their performances with inherited runners.
I was surprised to see that Cano's defense makes him such a plus contributor, but I guess that's the case at least by this methodology. If you want to get angry, you can figure out how much the "contributions" of Abreu, Mientkiewicz and Igawa have cost the team this year.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
I’ve Got Good News, and I’ve Got Bad News…
First the good news. The Yankees beat Minnesota 5-1 last night, in an important game in their wild card chances. Roger Clemens was brilliant, Bobby Abreu remembered what an extra base hit was, and Robinson Cano went 2-3 with a walk.
The bad news? The Yankees’ most valuable player this season left the game in the sixth inning with what’s being described as a hamstring strain. There’s no sense speculating about how long Alex Rodriguez will be out until his tests come back, but every day he misses is a day where the Yankees are significantly weaker.
How much weaker? Let’s assume Miguel Cairo takes Rodriguez’s playing time and nothing else changes. On YTD performance, Cairo is 1.3 runs worse than Rodriguez over every 10 plate appearances. So you can do the math from there. Every two games, the Yankees lose a run of offense. As far as defense, Cairo’s arm looks a little short at third, and his career Zone Rating of .708 agrees that he’ll be below average there. As far as the impact, Rodriguez is seeing 2.5 chances per game at third this year, and converting 2 of them into outs (ZR of .8). If we assume Cairo plays to his career ZR, that’s 1.77 plays he would make. Obviously we’re not dealing with partial plays in reality, so let’s look at that over a more realistic stretch. Every five games, Cairo would fail to make a play that Rodriguez would make, assuming Rodriguez’s current ZR is reflective of his current defensive talent and Cairo’s career ZR is reflective of his. The run value of a play not made at third on average is .8 runs.
If we assume a 15 day DL stint for Rodriguez, Cairo is a downgrade of -9 on offense and -2 on defense. That’s not good. If we do what we should and use Rodriguez’s projections coming into this season instead of solely his current performance, the difference shrinks by a couple of runs.
That’s what the numbers say, but it’s hard to imagine that the Yankees aren’t going to miss Rodriguez more than that. He’s the one bat that’s hitting for power this year. The lineup they ran out there yesterday had six starters slugging under .430. That’s not gong to work.
I guess this will give us a sneak preview of what happens if Rodriguez walks next year.
Back to Clemens, it was his 350th career win, and he lowered his ERA on the season to 4.26. He’s probably just getting to the point where he’d be after a full spring training, so I think he’ll be ok going forward. Whether or not he’s pitching in meaningful games will be up to his teammates.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
A Little Exercise about Reliever Utilization (plus Playoff Odds through June 27)
One of my favorite sabermetric researchers, Tango Tiger, has done a lot of research about reliever usage. He came up with the statistic Leverage Index, which uses win expectancy to determine the most crucial situations in a given game.Let's look at two situations in particular.
Situation 1: Two teams, we'll call them NYY and BAL are playing in BAL. They are tied heading into the bottom of the ninth. In this situation, the win expectancy for the visiting team (NYY) is
Situation 2: The same two teams are playing again, but this time BAL is leading NYY 4-0 heading into the bottom of the eighth. In that situation, the win expectancy for NYY is .027.
So in situation 1, NYY had a 36.6% chance of winning the game, and in situation 2, NYY had a 2.7% chance of winning the game. In that spot, preventing the winning run is the most important thing that NYY could do. So which situation should their best reliever have been used in?
But what if your best reliever had thrown 20 pitches over 1.2 innings in a game four days prior? Well in that case, you could use arguably your second best reliever, since he had only thrown 22 pitches in that same game, plus 40 pitches in the next game. You could even watch while he walks three batters, including one with the bases loaded to lose the game.
Anyway, the Yankees' recent skid has had a dramatic effect on their already fading playoff chances. When I ran my playoff odds exercise on June 18, the Yankees had a 9.3% chance at the division, and a 59.7% chance at the wild card. And after going 1-7 in their last eight games, here's where they are now after simulating the rest of the season 1000 times using projections weighted 80% on 2007 projections coming into the season and 20% on current performance.
| American League | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | DIV% | WC% | PO% | High | Low |
| East | W | W | |||||||||
| Bos07 | 101.2 | 60.8 | 888 | 701 | 977.5 | 17.0 | 97.8% | 1.7% | 99.5% | 113 | 90 |
| NYA07 | 88.3 | 73.7 | 847 | 706 | 22.5 | 336.0 | 2.3% | 33.6% | 35.9% | 102 | 76 |
| Tor07 | 80.7 | 81.3 | 802 | 782 | 0.0 | 45.5 | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 95 | 69 |
| Bal07 | 71.7 | 90.3 | 755 | 821 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 86 | 59 |
| Tam07 | 67.2 | 94.8 | 787 | 960 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 82 | 55 |
| Central | |||||||||||
| Cle07 | 92.8 | 69.2 | 883 | 761 | 592.0 | 162.0 | 59.2% | 16.2% | 75.4% | 107 | 76 |
| Det07 | 90.9 | 71.1 | 902 | 777 | 363.0 | 220.0 | 36.3% | 22.0% | 58.3% | 105 | 78 |
| Min07 | 83.7 | 78.3 | 782 | 748 | 45.0 | 75.5 | 4.5% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 97 | 71 |
| ChA07 | 72.7 | 89.3 | 740 | 838 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 86 | 61 |
| KC07 | 66.2 | 95.8 | 746 | 889 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 77 | 52 |
| West | |||||||||||
| LAA07 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 805 | 711 | 868.5 | 25.0 | 86.9% | 2.5% | 89.4% | 104 | 76 |
| Sea07 | 83.8 | 78.2 | 793 | 803 | 71.0 | 71.5 | 7.1% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 97 | 72 |
| Oak07 | 82.8 | 79.2 | 738 | 705 | 60.5 | 47.5 | 6.1% | 4.8% | 10.8% | 96 | 65 |
| Tex07 | 70.0 | 92.0 | 825 | 908 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 84 | 55 |
So they've gone from an already meager 9.3% shot at the AL East to an even more scant 2.3%. More concerning is their wild card chances have plummeted, from 59.7% to 33.6%. I guess it still means they have a chance.
Peter Abraham reported yesterday that the Angels will be DFA'ing Shea Hillenbrand by Friday and that he could be a Yankee by the weekend. Hillenbrand might be better than Cairo, but he won't be a difference-maker, and he'll be awfully tough for me to root for. I'd rather not see him in pinstripes.
And what happened to the pledge to get Andy Phillips some playing time? Phillips was called up on June 19, and in the 8 games since he's gotten one start and 8 AB. Meanwhile, Miguel Cairo has started six games and hit .238/.304/.286. I have no expectations for Phillips, but odds are he cannot be any worse than Cairo has been, and he'd be a hell of a lot easier to root for than someone like Hillenbrand.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Slip Sliding Away
The Yankees recent freefall continued in tonight’s 3-2 loss to Baltimore. Andy Pettitte held the Orioles to two runs over seven innings, but he really didn’t pitch all that well, walking five and striking out only two. On the postgame they blamed the walks on Pettitte being afraid to make any mistakes because of how bad the offense has been lately.
This season, when the Yankees have scored four runs or fewer, they are 4-28. When they score five runs or more, they are 32-10. Conversely, when they’ve given up four runs or fewer they are 28-12, and when they allow five runs or more they are 8-24.
Joe Torre didn’t help the team’s chance to win by letting Miguel Cairo bat in two late inning situations, and by keeping his best reliever in the bullpen for a save opportunity that would never materialize. Managing to a save situation when the season is slipping away is the height of absurdity, if not for giving Cairo fourteen starts at first base this season, which is even more absurd. However, Torre is not the real problem with this team. I just don’t think this is that good of a team, and the fault for that has to go to Brian Cashman. I had no problem with the Gary Sheffield trade at the time it was made. Bobby Abreu projected to be better and was several years younger, and Sheffield didn’t have a position to play and was coming off a wrist injury. I didn’t really like the Randy Johnson trade, because I thought that a healthier Johnson would rebound and I felt the Yankees got nothing back for him except salary relief, which they ended up pissing away anyway. Johnson really hasn’t been healthy, but he’s been great when he’s pitched. You’ve seen Vizcaino, and he’s probably been better than anyone else that came back in that deal.
The Sheffield and Johnson trades would make more sense if this is a rebuilding year, which would be fine. If that’s the case, then why the ridiculous expenditure for Roger Clemens? Clemens’ four month salary could be used to sign the entire Yankee draft class. Cashman also has to be held accountable for the weakness at first base and backup catcher, and the bullpen.
Where does this team go from here? Who knows. For all the crap that Jason Giambi gets, this lineup seems a lot less scary without him, although they scored an average of 5.46 runs in games he’s started this year, compared to 5.44 without him, which isn’t that big of a difference. I’ve seen a lot of people advocating a fire sale to re-stock the farm, but who on this team is tradeable? Players either have no-trade clauses, horrible contracts, or stink.
This team still has the talent to make a run, but the clock’s running out on them. Every time they lose to a team they should not be losing to like they have for arguably the last week, that’s a win they have to steal against a good team later.
Monday, June 18, 2007
The Surge
I'm a bad Yankee fan. On May 28, the Yankees fell to 21-28 and I wrote them off. They lost the next game to fall to 21-29. Since then, the Yanks have played 17 games, and won 14 of them, moving themselves from 14.5 games back of the AL East division lead and 8.5 games back of the wild card lead to 8.5 games back in the AL East, and 3.5 games back in the wild card.How have they been doing it? It's a team effort, on offense, on defense, and with the pitching.
Here's how the offense has performed since May 30, sorted by batting runs by linear weights above average. These are not position-adjusted, but are compared to the league average for all players. Players are sorted from most to least valuable.
| Player | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RB | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR +/- |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 77 | 60 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 1 | .383 | .494 | .850 | 1.344 | 12 |
| Abreu, Bobby | 75 | 59 | 20 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | .407 | .533 | .678 | 1.211 | 9 |
| Cano, Robinson | 73 | 67 | 10 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | .343 | .397 | .567 | .964 | 4 |
| Posada, Jorge | 69 | 59 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 0 | .305 | .377 | .559 | .936 | 4 |
| Jeter, Derek | 79 | 69 | 18 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | .319 | .392 | .493 | .885 | 3 |
| Matsui, Hideki | 76 | 65 | 13 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 10 | 0 | 1 | .338 | .408 | .477 | .885 | 2 |
| Cabrera, Melky | 70 | 60 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | .300 | .357 | .417 | .774 | 0 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 |
| Giambi, Jason | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .200 | .250 | .450 | 0 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 48 | 44 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | .295 | .313 | .364 | .676 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | 70 | 64 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .250 | .314 | .391 | .705 | -1 |
| Nieves, Wil | 13 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .231 | .167 | .397 | -1 |
| Phelps, Josh | 29 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | .231 | .310 | .231 | .541 | -2 |
| Total | 690 | 595 | 121 | 190 | 41 | 5 | 21 | 112 | 72 | 98 | 19 | 6 | .319 | .394 | .511 | .905 | 29 |
Almost everyone on the team has been average or above, but it's been the A-Rod and Abreu show. After a down May, Alex Rodriguez is on fire. For all the talk about how Johnny Damon has been hitting better as a DH, he really hasn't been that good. The big thing is that the whole team is hitting fairly consistently overall. Even Miguel Cairo hasn't been horrendous, although the more he plays the more he's going to cost the team on offense, and I say this as one of his biggest fans. Overall, they're 29 runs above average over the last 17 games on offense.
Of course, we all know that pitching wins championships™. Not really, but it sure helps. Here's how the pitching staff has done so far. RSAA is runs saved above average, which is simply the difference between how many runs a pitcher has given up compared to what an average pitcher would have in the same number of innings (earned and unearned runs). FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching ERA, which regresses a pitcher's non HR hits to average in an attempt to remove the factors out of their control. It's a good way to see if a pitcher is over or under-performing their peripherals and what we should expect from them going forward.
| Player | GS | GF | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | FIP | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/9 | RSAA |
| Wang, Chien-Ming | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 30.3 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 2.08 | 3.20 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 9 |
| Myers, Mike | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 1.44 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 3 |
| Rivera, Mariano | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9.3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 3 |
| Vizcaino, Luis | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1.35 | 3.35 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 3 |
| Mussina, Mike | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18.7 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 3.86 | 4.65 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Clemens, Roger | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12.3 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 3.65 | 2.55 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 10.9 | 2 |
| Henn, Sean | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | 5.70 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Pettitte, Andy | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20.3 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 4.43 | 3.74 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Britton, Chris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 6.87 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Bruney, Brian | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4.50 | 7.87 | 10.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Farnsworth, Kyle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5.14 | 3.20 | 5.1 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Proctor, Scott | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10.3 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 2.61 | 2.81 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Villone, Ron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 12.70 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 | -2 |
| DeSalvo, Matt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13.50 | 7.70 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 |
| Clippard, Tyler | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17.0 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 7.94 | 7.44 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 5.8 | -6 |
| Total | 17 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 152.0 | 152 | 68 | 64 | 14 | 54 | 111 | 3.79 | 4.16 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 13 |
We all love Wang. Despite being the biggest fluke ever, he has been the Yankees most valuable pitcher since May 30, and last night he put on a clinic. He threw one changeup to Jose Reyes that Reyes fell over trying to hit, and did a masterful job of mixing in his secondary pitches last night, fanning a career-high 10 in the process. Roger Clemens followed up an ok start against Pittsburgh with a better one against a better team on Friday. RLYW whipping boy Luis Vizcaino has been outstanding of late, showing more life on his fastball and slider and has fanned 7 in 6.2 innings. The BB rate is still high, but he's working around that. The only pitchers who have been below average are Matt DeSalvo, Tyler Clippard, and Ron Villone. DeSalvo and Clippard have been optioned back to Scranton, and Villone's relegated to extreme mopup. Overall Yankee pitchers have saved 13 runs above average over the last 17 games.
The Yankees' defense has been a sore spot for most of the last few years. However, even that's been doing well over this recent stretch.
| Player | Pos | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 17 | 17 | 53 | 151 | 35 | 58 | 0 | 17 | .906 | 48 | 5 | 4 | 35 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 15 | 15 | 45 | 139 | 12 | 29 | 1 | 3 | .778 | 35 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Cairo, Miguel | SS | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 72 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 3 | 3 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .900 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 15 | 13 | 37 | 129 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .892 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Basak, Chris | 3B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 92 |
| Cabrera, Melky | RF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 16 | 15 | 32 | 143 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .875 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 3B | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .667 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -36 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 1B | 9 | 7 | 22 | 76 | 76 | 6 | 0 | 10 | .818 | 18 | -1 | -1 | -10 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 16 | 16 | 37 | 151 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .838 | 31 | -1 | -1 | -8 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 1B | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 6 | .500 | 2 | -2 | -1 | -102 |
| Phelps, Josh | 1B | 10 | 7 | 9 | 56 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 6 | .667 | 6 | -2 | -1 | -35 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 16 | 15 | 57 | 142 | 26 | 48 | 3 | 15 | .754 | 43 | -3 | -2 | -24 |
| Total | 16 | 16 | 313 | 1056 | 330 | 153 | 8 | 58 | .827 | 259 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Player | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | PB | SBA | CS | CS% | CERA | RS | RS/162 |
| Nieves | 4 | 4 | 33 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4.64 | -1 | -32 |
| Posada | 14 | 13 | 119 | 95 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 3.55 | -2 | -22 |
| Total | 18 | 17 | 152 | 122 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 3.79 | -3 | -25 |
Robinson Cano has disappointed on offense this year, but his defense as tracked by ZR has been outstanding. Over the last 17 games he's saved 4 runs above average, which would be the equivalent of saving 35 runs over a full season. To my eye, Miguel Cairo's defense at first has been much better than reflected in his ZR. The main thing is that overall, the team is playing close to average defense to support the pitching staff. The catchers haven't been very good defensively, but Posada and Nieves have combined for 82 hits and 22 doubles this year, so that's something.
The numbers above have led to the Yankees having a run differential of 121 runs scored and 68 allowed. That translates to a pythagorean record of 12-5, but they've gone 14-3 instead. So we can add at least some good fortune into the mix as well.
| Standings | W | L | RS | RA | WPct |
| Actual | 14 | 3 | 121 | 68 | 0.824 |
| Pythag | 12 | 5 | 121 | 68 | 0.742 |
Add it all up, and you have a team that's been on fire. They still have a lot of ground to make up, but I'll have an updated look at their playoff odds tomorrow.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Miguel Cairo vs. Josh Phelps
Doug Mientkiewicz’s injuries have turned an already bad first base situation for the Yankees into an even worse one. With no call on the horizon yet to Andy Phillips or Shelley Duncan, the Yankees tried Josh Phelps for two games and then have started Miguel Cairo for the last two games.
Phelps struggled defensively in the team’s 6-4 loss at Chicago making a key error in the second inning which helped the White Sox score three runs, and that then caused the unpopular move of starting Cairo at first the last two nights. Cairo’s gone 4 for 8 over the last two games and converted all six fieldable chances he’s seen into outs, which indicates that he may be the starting 1B for now.
So how bad is this?
Mientkiewicz is going to be out from 6-8 weeks, which I’ll say is 60 games. 60 games will end up being roughly 250 plate appearances. Using linear weights and their 2007 projections, here’s how many batting runs above average we’d expect Cairo and Phelps to create over 250 PA.
Cairo: (.226/.277/.320) BR: -11
Phelps: (.266/.324/.461) BR: 1
Ouch. Offensively, there’s a 12 run projected difference between the two.
That seems like a clear no-brainer, but it’s not that simple. We have to of course look at defense too.
Cairo’s only played 154 innings at first in his career, but he has an outstanding ZR of .944. That’s good, but the sample size is way too small.
Phelps has seen more action at first, but even his career 370 innings is too small to make any definitive statement about. His ZR is .770.
Those 60 games are the same as around 540 defensive innings. I looked through my historical zone rating database at all first basemen who played at least 540 innings in a season, and looked at the spread between the best and worst defenders pro-rated over 540 innings.
The best stretch I found over a pro-rated 540 innings were Jeff King (with a ZR of .940) in 1996 and Todd Zeile(with a ZR of .927) in 2000. Both saved around 7 runs above average. The two worst stretches were Mike Piazza in 2004 (with a ZR of .740) and Mo Vaughn in 1997 (with a ZR of .719) both “worth” nine runs below average. There’s some selection bias in the lower end I’d imagine, because if someone was worse than this they wouldn’t get enough playing time to show it.
So the spread between the worst possible defender and best possible defender at first over 60 games is about 16 runs at most. So even if Cairo is as good as any first baseman ever, and Phelps is as bad as any first baseman ever, they still end up with Cairo only holding a slight edge overall. Do keep in mind that this is only looking at fieldable chances converted into outs. It doesn’t include a first baseman’s scooping ability or their range in catching foul popups.
Over 540 innings, the average 1B should see 105 chances or so. If we use the career ZR of Cairo and Phelps at first base, the difference between the two over those chances would be that Cairo would convert 99 of 105 chances, Phelps would convert 81 of them, a difference of 18 plays, roughly equal to 14 runs.
The problem is, we can’t assume that either Cairo’s .944 ZR or Phelps’s .770 career ZR are what their true talent is. In my database, there are only 47 seasons where a first baseman had a ZR of .900 or higher over at least 540 innings.
If we regress Cairo to average, which I think is reasonable, his ZR of .846. This year, Phelps’s ZR is .843, but from what I’ve seen, his 2007 ZR doesn’t really capture his poor defensive ability. I’ll split the difference, and say he’s probably around a .807 defender. This would mean that the difference between Phelps and Cairo would be about 4 plays, or 3 runs over 540 innings.
So, offense + defense, Phelps would be worth +1 offensive run, and -3 defensive runs. Cairo would be worth -11 offensive runs, and 0 defensive runs. That makes Phelps about nine runs, or one win better.
If Cairo is in fact a better than average defender, which I do think is true, then the difference decreases. What I would probably do is play Cairo behind Chien-Ming Wang (2.72 G/F ratio) and Andy Pettitte(1.64 G/F ratio). They should prevent runs at a better rate than the other Yankee starters and would benefit more from the better defender at first.
Speaking of Wang, he was great last night in pitching the Yankees’ first complete game of the season. Peter Abraham noted this morning that Wang is 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA over his last five starts.
Mike Mussina will have a chance to give the Yanks a rare series victory today against former Yankee Jose Contreras. Moose has been a disappointment so far, but I’m holding out hope that he’s still building up arm strength and will be better going forward.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Yankee Offense by Linear Weights through May 8
Yesterday's 8-2 win has again got the Yankees into position to go to .500. We'll see if they can capitalize on that tonight.Andy Pettitte continued to pitch effectively this year. His peripherals are still a little lackluster. His ERA of 2.72 is about a run lower than his FIP of 3.88. Even if he pitches closer to his FIP going forward, he'll be solid.
Jorge Posada's having a remarkable season to this point. After last night, he's hitting .354/.420/.556. By position-adjusted batting runs above average, he's been the best catcher in the AL, slightly ahead of Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. Now if they can just fix his defense...
Alex Rodriguez's slump appears to be over, as he homered, the 479th of his career. It's been a while since A-Rod made a tabloid cover. but he snuck on the Daily News this morning.
More encouragingly overall, the Yankee bullpen as tracked by the bullpen counter no longer has any relievers on pace to pitch over 100 innings this season. I'd still like to see less frequent outings, as Scott Proctor and Luis Vizcaino are on pace to appear in 94 games, and Brian Bruney in 89 games, but it's nice to see the starters giving the team depth. I think the bullpen's current performance will be a lot better with less frequent use. The Yankees have a 4.90 ERA as starters, and a 4.20 ERA as relievers. Here's how that 4.20 ERA ranks amongst AL bullpens.
| Team | Abr | LG | W | L | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | HBP | BB | SO |
| Boston Red Sox | BOS | AL | 3 | 1 | 2.27 | 79.1 | 62 | 24 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 60 |
| Minnesota Twins | MIN | AL | 6 | 4 | 3.15 | 97 | 83 | 34 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 83 |
| Seattle Mariners | SEA | AL | 5 | 1 | 3.57 | 93.1 | 83 | 42 | 37 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 51 |
| Cleveland Indians | CLE | AL | 8 | 4 | 3.75 | 93.2 | 83 | 42 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 38 | 90 |
| Chicago White Sox | CWS | AL | 7 | 4 | 3.83 | 84.2 | 74 | 37 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 79 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | TOR | AL | 2 | 7 | 3.87 | 93 | 84 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 79 |
| Texas Rangers | TEX | AL | 4 | 3 | 3.90 | 108.1 | 105 | 53 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 58 | 85 |
| New York Yankees | NYY | AL | 6 | 8 | 4.20 | 120 | 99 | 58 | 56 | 11 | 4 | 65 | 75 |
| Oakland Athletics | OAK | AL | 6 | 7 | 4.33 | 89.1 | 84 | 45 | 43 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 72 |
| Los Angeles Angels | LAA | AL | 1 | 3 | 4.40 | 92 | 75 | 46 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 40 | 81 |
| Detroit Tigers | DET | AL | 9 | 8 | 4.41 | 98 | 85 | 52 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 66 |
| Baltimore Orioles | BAL | AL | 6 | 5 | 4.54 | 111 | 111 | 57 | 56 | 8 | 4 | 49 | 99 |
| Kansas City Royals | KC | AL | 1 | 9 | 5.16 | 103 | 113 | 67 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 55 | 76 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | TB | AL | 6 | 7 | 5.45 | 100.2 | 119 | 66 | 61 | 13 | 7 | 51 | 70 |
Last thing for today. Here's how the Yankees rate so far by position-adjusted batting runs above average.
| Last | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BA/BIP | LD% | GB% | pBR |
| Rodriguez | 31 | 141 | .358 | .426 | .797 | .358 | 21.4% | 37.8% | 18.8 |
| Posada | 29 | 112 | .354 | .420 | .556 | .410 | 25.6% | 40.2% | 9.0 |
| Jeter | 30 | 145 | .354 | .424 | .457 | .384 | 20.0% | 54.8% | 5.7 |
| Matsui | 18 | 75 | .259 | .413 | .448 | .260 | 9.4% | 56.6% | 4.1 |
| Giambi | 31 | 126 | .299 | .405 | .486 | .338 | 20.0% | 27.1% | 3.5 |
| Thompson | 6 | 8 | .250 | .250 | .500 | .667 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Phelps | 18 | 38 | .273 | .368 | .394 | .333 | 20.0% | 28.0% | 0.2 |
| Damon | 27 | 111 | .250 | .369 | .370 | .284 | 21.1% | 42.1% | -0.3 |
| Cairo | 12 | 16 | .154 | .313 | .154 | .154 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -0.9 |
| Mientkiewicz | 30 | 84 | .230 | .293 | .392 | .215 | 23.2% | 40.6% | -1.6 |
| Cano | 30 | 127 | .267 | .315 | .362 | .337 | 15.2% | 55.4% | -3.4 |
| Cabrera | 27 | 107 | .232 | .295 | .263 | .256 | 17.4% | 55.8% | -4.1 |
| Nieves | 9 | 21 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 10.5% | 52.6% | -4.4 |
| Abreu | 31 | 149 | .258 | .336 | .313 | .323 | 19.6% | 49.0% | -5.0 |
| G | Games |
| PA | Plate appearances |
| BA | Batting Average |
| OBP | On base percentage |
| SLG | Slugging percentage |
| BA/BIP | Batting average on balls in play |
| LD% | Line drive percentage |
| GB% | Ground ball percentage |
| pBR | Batting runs above average, position-adjusted |
No surprise that A-Rod leads the pack. Posada's been the second most valuable offensive player to this point. Bobby Abreu's the current whipping boy for many fans, and it's justified statistically to this point. I'm not completely worried about him yet, although I'm starting to at least consider the fact he may be done. More disappointing to me has been Robinson Cano and to a lesser extent Melky Cabrera. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who's noticed Doug Mientkiewicz's recent hot streak. He's not going to be great, but if he can get on base at a .350 clip and slug around .420, he's not a problem (assuming his defense plays out as projected).
This team's still not clicking on all cylinders, yet is on pace to score 962 runs. Also, if they play to their pythagorean record for the rest of the season, they'll now win 92 games. You can use my Javascript calculators anytime you want to calculate either of these two numbers.
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Yankee Defense by Zone Rating - through Games of May 1
Since it's been a while since I posted any charts or tables, here's a look at how the Yankees rate by zone rating (except for the catchers) so far this year. As I always suggest, anyone unfamiliar with Zone Rating should read this article.| Player | Pos | G | GS | INN | PM | Ch | ZR | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 1B | 23 | 16 | 151.0 | 19 | 24 | 0.792 | 0.835 | 20 | -1 | -1 | -8 |
| Phelps, Josh | 1B | 10 | 7 | 56.0 | 8 | 9 | 0.889 | 0.835 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Giambi, Jason | 1B | 1 | 1 | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.835 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 1B | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.835 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 24 | 24 | 215.0 | 59 | 73 | 0.808 | 0.837 | 61 | -2 | -2 | -11 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 24 | 24 | 213.0 | 40 | 51 | 0.784 | 0.763 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 3B | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.763 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 19 | 16 | 140.0 | 41 | 46 | 0.891 | 0.883 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 11 | 8 | 74.0 | 28 | 31 | 0.903 | 0.883 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Thompson, Kevin | CF | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.883 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | LF | 13 | 11 | 102.0 | 25 | 27 | 0.926 | 0.868 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 11 | 11 | 92.0 | 17 | 21 | 0.810 | 0.868 | 18 | -1 | -1 | -16 |
| Cairo, Miguel | LF | 2 | 1 | 11.0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0.868 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Thompson, Kevin | LF | 2 | 1 | 10.0 | 4 | 5 | 0.800 | 0.868 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -41 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 24 | 24 | 214.0 | 55 | 66 | 0.833 | 0.856 | 57 | -2 | -1 | -9 |
| Thompson, Kevin | RF | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.856 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 22 | 22 | 195.0 | 70 | 91 | 0.769 | 0.831 | 76 | -6 | -4 | -31 |
| Cairo, Miguel | SS | 4 | 1 | 20.0 | 12 | 14 | 0.857 | 0.831 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Total | 194 | 167 | 1505 | 382 | 462 | 0.827 | 0.841 | 389 | -7 | -5 | -35 | |
| NAME | Pos | GP | GS | INN | A | E | PB | SB | CS | CS% | RS | RS/162 |
| Wil Nieves, NYY | C | 7 | 5 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 1 | 41 |
| Jorge Posada, NYY | C | 22 | 19 | 173 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 13% | -1 | -5 |
| Josh Phelps, NYY | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 |
| G | Games | |
| GS | Games Started | |
| INN | Defensive Innings at Position | |
| A | Assists | |
| E | Errors | |
| Ch | Playable Chances | |
| PM | Plays Made | |
| ZR | Zone Rating (PM/Ch) | |
| Avg ZR | ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league | |
| AvgPM | Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender | |
| Diff | Difference between PM and AvgPM | |
| RS | Runs Saved | |
| RS/162 | Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games | |
| PB | Passed Balls | |
| SB | Stolen Bases Allowed | |
| CS | Caught Stealing | |
| CS% | SB / (SB + CS) |
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Looking Ahead to 2007: The Bench
DATE: 3/14/2007 11:06:00 PM
I’ll wrap up my Looking Ahead pieces for the position players with the Yankee bench. I already looked at the backup catcher candidates here, as well as Melky Cabrera here, so let’s finish it off with a look at Miguel Cairo, Andy Phillips, and Josh Phelps.
Here are their offensive projections.
Anyone who can’t see the embedded Google spreadsheets below can use this link instead.
And here are their defensive projections.
I know Cairo is a horrible hitter, but I still like him. He makes up for an awful bat with decent defense all around the infield. The Yankees didn’t have a lot of options in the utility infielder market this offseason, so I was fine with bringing him back. Now we just have to hope he doesn’t play a lot.
The last spot on the bench is going come down to one of Andy Phillips or Rule 5 pick Josh Phelps. Phillips brings a good glove at first and some good AAA numbers to the battle, whereas Phelps brings his former top prospect billing and lead glove. Phelps has a better major league track record than Phillips, and projects to be a better hitter. He also gives the heavily left-handed Yankee lineup an option to rest one of their lefties, as he’s hit .293/.357/.500 vs. lefties in his career, compared to .257/.325/.460.
Phillips’s glove is superfluous with Doug Mientkiewicz around. I championed Phillips getting a chance last season, and he got it. He disappointed, and unless the Yankees are willing to carry 11 pitches, either he or Phelps has to go. The smart move is keeping Phelps, who is younger, projects to hit better, and who has shown more talent at the major league level. I think Brian Cashman knows this, or they wouldn’t have taken Phelps in the Rule 5 draft.
That wraps up the position players. What does it all add up to? This.
I used some rough playing time projections, then filled in the gaps with replacement level play on both offense and defense. The Yankees project to score 142 runs above average using linear weights. The average AL team scored 804 last year, so adding 142 to that, I get a team that projects to score around 950 runs. We should probably knock that down a bit since Yankee Stadium tends to play as a slight pitchers’ park, but 940 or so seems eminently reachable, and with some health and performances that exceed projections, 1000 has an outside chance.
The defense is ugly, but no worse than it’s been in the recent past.
I’m pretty happy to see the position players projecting so well. Now they just have to say healthy and meet or exceed their expectations. Next up, the pitchers…
Monday, December 4, 2006
12/4/06: Odds and Ends
With baseball’s Winter Meetings beginning to roll, there’s no shortage of rumors and speculation rampant.
According to Newsday, the Yankees are holding a roster spot open for Andy Pettitte should he decide to come back to the Bronx, even though it’s not very likely. Pettitte wouldn’t be a bad option, as he’d likely come with a shorter time committment than someone like Barry Zito. He was overrated during his Yankee tenure, but he’s a solid pitcher, and could probably put up an ERA in the 4.00 area while giving the team innings as long as he can stay healthy, something that is occasionally a problem for him.
In good news for Yankee fans, Tanyon Sturtze has signed with Atlanta. For some reason, the Braves are guaranteeing him $750,000. I guess a bellyful of guts is a valued commodity. There are rumors that the Yankees may look to deal Kyle Farnsworth. I don’t think it’d hurt the Yankees to see what he could bring back, although I don’t necessarily think he has to be dealt or anything. He had his good stretches and bad stretches last season, just like he has throughout his entire career. He’s a decent bet to be useful next year, although his 2005 is pretty apparently the outlier in an inconsistent career.
A reader emailed me this page of Kei Igawa’s 2006 splits from Yahoo! Japan. Since I can’t read Japanese real well, I ran it through the World Lingo translator. Igawa had a Defense Ratio (ERA) of 2.97 last season. He had 3 Nothing Point Victories (shutouts). He suffered 180 Hits, 17 book Base Hits (HRs), got Three Swings (Strikeouts) 194 times, he gave 49 Annie Oakleys (BB, WTF?), and also gave six dead spheres (HBP). He allowed 77 losing points (Runs) and 69 Self-reproach points (Earned Runs).
Fun with translations aside, the lefty/righty splits were interesting.
Vs. Righties
AB: 518
H: 106
HR: 7
K: 138
BB: 33
HBP: 4
AVg: .205
OBP: .258
K/PA: .25
BB/PA: .06
Vs. Lefties
AB: 251
H: 74
HR: 10
K: 56
BB: 16
HBP: 2
Avg. .295
OBP: .342
K/PA: .21
BB/PA: .06
One year’s splits can have a lot of noise, and it’s also probable he was facing only the better lefties in Japan, but these aren’t very good splits for a team that will be facing David Ortiz 19 times this season. This also tells me he’s probably primarily a changeup pitcher, and his breaking ball is not very good.
The Yankees are still in the market for a 1B, backup C, and a utility IF. They may bring Miguel Cairo back, who isn’t great by any means but isn’t as bad as his offensive numbers make him seem thanks to his ability to play multiple positions quite well defensively. I still think Mike Lieberthal as a backup C makes all kinds of sense. As far as 1B, I still think Craig Wilson would be the best option, because he can help balance what’s become a very heavily left-handed lineup. And yeah, I know he had 105 bad AB as a Yankee. Putting stock in that over the 1848 other AB he’s had in his career is not really good player evaluation.
I pray the rumors about the Yankees interest in Shea Hillenbrand aren’t valid, because I don’t think I can stand rooting for him, and he’s just not that good. I’ve seen mention of Doug Mientkiewicz. I’m not a huge fan of his, although he’s a decent OBP guy and a pretty good glove. He’s also a lefty with no pop, and spelling his name all the time on this blog would be a royal pain in the ...
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Run Values of the 2006 Yankees
With the Yankees’ 2006 season at its end, I wanted to take one last look back at the contributions of everyone who wore pinstripes this season. I posted the details of a lot of these calculations in this entry a while back, so if you want more background you can check that out.
First up, the offense.
Next up, the defense.
Lastly, the pitching.
Add it all up, and here’s the sum total of everyone’s contributions to the Yankees in 2006.
Do these numbers make sense? The Yankees were 167 runs better than an average team, or 16.7 wins better. Add 16.7 wins to an 81 win team, you get a 97.8 win team. I guess they do.
In other Yankee news, Joe Torre is staying.
Monday, October 2, 2006
ALDS Preview - Tigers vs. Yankees
It’s ALDS preview time, as the Yankees will be taking on Detroit Tuesday night on FOX at 8 PM.
First up, here is a look at the position players on the 25 man playoff rosters. As I am wont to do, I’m using linear weights for offense and zone rating converted to runs for defense. BR is the player’s total output above/below average on the season compared to others listed at the same position. DR are the defensive runs above/below average. For the bench players who played multiple positions, I’ve combined all their defensive numbers.
I’ve combined the lines for players who played for multiple teams. I’ve removed the defensive stats of Marcus Thames and Jason Giambi as their primary roles will be as DH. Matt Stairs was acquired post Sept 1 so I don’t think he can be on the Tigers’ post-season roster.
As you can see from this list, Detroit’s is a much better defensive team than the Yankees, but overall they’re not on the same level. The Yankees have the edge on a per game basis at C, 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF, and DH, and the difference between Derek Jeter and Carlos Guillen is basically negligible. They Yankees have 8 of the top 9 players as far as total run value per game (based on this season’s performance).
The Tigers’ starting nine hit .280/.337/.458 compared to a league average of .275/.338/.437. It should be noted that they play in a pitcher’s park, so this is not a bad overall line for them. As a team overall, their season OPS was 100, or exactly league average. The starting nine put up an OPS of around 105. That’s around what Mike Lowell hit this season.
On the Tigers bench, they don’t pack much offensive punch, although Chris Shelton may get a start against Randy Johnson in Game 3.
The Yankees’ starting nine hit .299/.392/.499, which is the equivalent of an OPS of 129. That’s around what Miguel Tejada had, with a bit less batting average and bit more OBP.
The Yankee bench isn’t too bad this season for once, although I’m not sure how much time they’ll get. Bernie would seem to be a good pinch-hitter against a lefty, but which lefty do you pinch hit for? Melky Cabrera will be there to back up all three OF and perhaps to spot Matsui for defense late in games. That is the right role for him. Matsui is right now the clearly superior player. Miguel Cairo will mainly just be around in case of an emergency, and I’d guess we’ll see Andy Phillips replacing Sheffield in the 8th and 9th innings for defense. Hopefully, Sal Fasano doesn’t get an AB.
On paper, it’s a pretty clear position player edge for the Yanks.
Of course, there’s the matter of pitching. First, a look at the starters. I’m using linear weights for the pitchers as well.
One thing about the chart above, I’m only using the pitchers’ numbers as starters.
In Game 1, the Yankees seem to have a fairly good-sized edge. Chien-Ming Wang has been better than Nate Robertson in most measures this season except for strikeout rate. His ERC (component ERA) also indicates that his success to this point hasn’t been fluky. I remain concerned about Wang’s workload on the season, as he’s thrown 218 innings this season after never topping 160 prior to this year, but I think/hope he’ll be fine.
Robertson’s a pretty good pitcher, and a fellow blogger, so I have a soft spot for him. Being left-handed is a slight advantage for him facing Abreu, Giambi, Cano, and Damon. I think he’ll pitch reasonably well, but I doubt he’ll shut the Yankees down completely or anything.
Game 2 seems like a very big edge for the Yankees by the numbers, but you never know with rookie pitchers that throw 100 mph. Justin Verlander’s been solid for Detroit, and was rated as the AL starter with the highest average fastball velocity this season by Basebll Info Solutions. Fatigue seems to have caught up with him a bit recently, and Jim Leyland had him skip a start to rest him a bit. He has the stuff to dominate, although his BB rate is a touch below average which would seem to be a benefit for the Yankees.
Mike Mussina started the season out great, but has faltered a bit lately. He typically pitches well in the postseason, and his last start was very impressive (particularly his velocity, which was up to 91-92). I think Moose will be fine.
Game 3 is about as big of a tossup as you can get. Kenny Rogers didn’t face the Yankees this season, but had a solid season, and amazingly did not push any cameramen. He’s a lefty nibbler who has had pretty good control and a good HR rate but doesn’t have much stuff. I think the Yankees could light him up.
Unfortunately, with Randy Johnson opposing him, they may have to. Johnson’s got a herniated disk and had an epidural to relieve the pain he was feeling. In some ways, the fact that there is a physical explanation for Johnson’s recent struggles is encouraging. The problem is if the epidural was done too late to rectify it. Johnson supposedly had a good BP session and is on target to pitch this game. He could be great, or he could be shelled. Hopefully the Yanks are up 2-0 when he pitches.
Johnson’s had an odd season. If you look at his component ERA (3.80), he’s been solid. The problem he’s had is the hits and walks and HRs he’s allowed have not come scattered, but tend to come in bunches, something ignored when looking a pitcher’s peripherals. This is very likely a manifestation of his health issues, and probably likely to continue.
If Game 4 is needed, it’ll be Jeremy Bonderman vs. Jaret Wright. If Game 4 is needed, the Yankees may be in trouble. Bonderman’s another guy with a lot of talent who has tired in the season’s homestretch, but he’s a lot better than Wright.
That’s a little harsh-sounding on Wright, who did a serviceable job this season and ended up a touch about average. His peripherals indicate that it’s not likely to continue, but he was an important part of the rotation this season and was useful, even if he’s a bit painful to watch at times.
And if Game 5 is needed, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1.
So the Yankees seem to have a slight edge in the starting pitching with 3 out of 5 matchups being favorable, which is a bit surprising honestly. How about the bullpen?
Joel Zumaya has been dominant out of Detroit’s pen, but that below average walk rate seems to scream out as an advantage for the Yankees. Baseball Info Solutions rated him as the hardest throwing pitcher in baseball, with an average fastball velocity of 98 MPH.
Fernando Rodney’s been pretty solid as well. His season has been remarkably similar to Scott Proctor’s, minus 20 appearances.
It’s a rare bullpen where the closer is probably the third or fourth worst option, but that’s where Todd Jones sits.
The Tigers also have two solid lefties in Jamie Walker and Wil Ledezma, who will be used in key spots to try and neutralize the Giambi/Abreu/Matsui/Cano/Damon contingent, which makes it imperative for Joe Torre to keep the lefties as separated as possible in the lineup. Zach Miner and Jason Grilli will round out the pen. Despite appearing in the chart above, Andrew Miller will not be a part of Detroit’s bullpen.
The Detroit pen as listed above (minus Miller) has held opposing hitters to a line of .230/.308/.350, and saved 44 runs above average. This is the biggest strength on the team, and their only statistical advantage over the Yankees.
The Yankee bullpen starts and ends at the top, with Mariano Rivera. He appears to be healthy heading into the postseason, and he has had a lot of rest and has proclaimed that he is ready to do whatever is needed (pitch on back-to-back days, pitch two innings). He may have to, because the bridge to him is shaky.
Scott Proctor had a great season as the most used reliever in the American League(holy crap, Salomon Torres pitched in 94 games???). At this point, he’s probably the Yankees second best reliever as long as he’s got some juice left in his arm. Proctor pitched in 16 games in September, and pitched well, posting a 1.65 ERA over 16.1 innings, walking 3, and fanning 14, so if he’s tired, it’s not showing.
Someone on the Nomaas discussion board has coined Kyle Farnsworth “It is high, it is Far-nsworth”. I can’t disagree with that. At times he’s unhittable, at other times he scares the crap out of me. While I don’t think his past post-season results indicate some inability to pitch in the playoffs, I think his general inconsistency might. I guess we’ll find out, but I’m not looking forward to it.
Brian Bruney brings a great fastball and bad command as the fourth RHP in the pen. Thankfully, patience is not a strength of the Tigers.
The Yankee pen is rounded out with Ron Villone, who had a great first half that led to many(including yours truly) whining about his lack of use, and an awful August and September that led to the same many (including yours truly) whining about him being used all the time. I think he’s on the roster as more of a reward for a solid half season, and less in a role where he’ll be expected to get many key outs. Detroit’s heavily right-handed, so the Yankees don’t need to worry about platoon advantages when they have Mike Myers on hand. Myers had a reverse platoon split this year, but I’m not ready to think that those 132 batters faced are more meaningful than the 2008 he had faced prior to this season. He’ll likely be asked to come in to get Sean Casey or Curtis Granderson out, and that’s about it. Cory Lidle will sit in the pen as well, in case any of the starters gets bombed.
All these numbers seem to indicate a classic mismatch. I’m not ready to go that far. Detroit’s a good team in a great baseball town. They led arguably the toughest division in baseball almost all season. They’re not just the team that went 26-30 over their last 56 games, they’re also the team that went 71-35 over their first 106.
This is an organization that lost 119 games just three seasons ago. Their turnaround has been remarkable and a credit to all involved. I think they can beat the Yankees, and I wouldn’t take them lightly. A great defensive team loaded with hard throwers can beat anyone if things break right.
But I don’t think they will. Yankees in four.
Peter Abraham posted the Game 1 lineup on his fine blog.
Johnny Damon CF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Gary Sheffield 1B
Jason Giambi DH
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui LF
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Rodriguez 6th? Interesting.
Saturday, September 30, 2006
Yankees.com: Torre sets postseason roster
NEW YORK—Joe Torre settled on his 25-man roster for the American League Division Series, choosing Andy Phillips and Miguel Cairo to round out his bench.
In addition, Torre announced that Brian Bruney would be the final man in the bullpen, as the Yankees will take 11 pitchers into the opening round of the postseason.
New York will take seven infielders (Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Cairo and Phillips), two catchers (Jorge Posada and Sal Fasano) and five outfielders (Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Bernie Williams and Melky Cabrera).
The 11 pitchers will be Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, Jaret Wright, Cory Lidle, Ron Villone, Bruney, Mike Myers, Scott Proctor, Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera. If Johnson’s back injury causes him to miss his Game 3 start, the Yankees would leave him off the roster and add either Jeff Karstens, Darrell Rasner or Sean Henn.
The decision to take Phillips as the backup first baseman over Craig Wilson or Aaron Guiel had as much to do with Phillips’ ability to play second and third base as his defense at first.
“We felt Phillips gave us the defense at first base,” Torre said. “Plus, in the event we want to use Cairo as a pinch-runner, we have a backup infielder who can play third, second or first.”
I can’t say have much issue with any of the choices. While I’d rather see them take 10 pitchers and add Aaron Guiel or Craig Wilson, given Johnson’s uncertain status taking 11 pitchers is the safer move.
Update: I saw this posted on Baseball Think Factory and thought it was interesting.
Another update: Since the batting race is the hot topic of the day, I’ll keep the table below updated in real-time.
| Player | Today | AVG |
|---|---|---|
 | 2-4 | .347 |
 | 1-5 | .343 |
 | 2-4 | .342 |
Monday, September 25, 2006
Picking the Postseason roster
I didn’t get to see much of this weekend’s debacle against Tampa. The lack of offense in the last two games is a little worrisome, but I’d imagine the Yankees are just going through the motions, with the notable exception of Robinson Cano, who continues to just rake. On the season Cano is now hitting .341/.365/.519. Recent defensive improvement has pushed him to a # on the season. He’s still not walking, and it’s doubtful he’s a true talent .341 hitter, but even if he were to hit .320 while maintaining everything else, he’d be at .320/.344/.499. For a second baseman, that’s pretty damn good, especially one who’s average or slightly above defensively.
Cano needs a total of 19 PA over the team’s remaining 7 games to qualify for the batting title, although Joe Mauer seems to be making it a moot point. Cano’s averaging a bit over 4 PA a game, so he can probably afford to sit one or two games out towards the end if necessary.
We know the Yankees can hit, so the offense is not as troubling as the starting pitching. Randy Johnson continued a bad string of starts on Saturday, and Mike Mussina wasn’t much better yesterday, although he was a victim of some bad defense. I saw bits and pieces of the games thanks to TiVO and thought Gary Sheffield looked decent at first aside from one play yesterday, although he still seems to be unsure about when to let Cano take plays that are between them. Visually he looks rangy enough and he’s a better thrower than Jason Giambi (then again, who isn’t?), but he still has some learning to do. I don’t know that he can get there in seven games, but I guess if the Yankees carry Craig Wilson and Aaron Guiel on the postseason roster they’ll have the people to take him out for defense in the later innings if needed. FWIW, Sheffield’s zone rating is 1.000 so far, so he hasn’t missed any plays that he’d be expected to make as far as zone rating, although that doesn’t include any throws from other infielders.
Mussina took a ball off his hand and now has a bruised thumb to deal with. He’ll get one more start to show us that he’s not something to be worried about. I see no way the Yankees can’t start Chien-Ming Wang in the first game of the playoffs now, especially if they have home field advantage in the first round.
The best news was the healthy return of Mariano Rivera, who threw a good inning on Friday. The plan now is to get him to pitch in at least one set of back-to-back games, but he should be good to go. Ron Villone is not regressing towards his mean, he blew past that point and probably does not belong on the postseason roster. While having two lefties would be nice, if one can’t get anyone out, what’s the point?
Speaking of the postseason roster, here’s how I see it now. First, the near-locks.
Pitchers (8)
Wang
Mussina
Johnson
Rivera
Proctor
Farnsworth
Myers
Wright
Catchers (2)
Posada
Fasano
Infielders (4)
Cano
Jeter
Giambi
Rodriguez
Outfielders (5)
Damon
Abreu
Melky
Matsui
Bernie
If Villone doesn’t go, I don’t think the Yankees should take more than 10 pitchers. I’d add Brian Bruney and Darrell Rasner. Rasner can give the team innings as a long reliever if needed. Odds are that if Lidle is healthy he’d either take the Rasner spot, or be the 11th pitcher, but time’s running out for him.
For backup infielders, I’d add Miguel Cairo and Andy Phillips. I know Cairo can’t hit, but he’s solid defensively at all four positions. Some people may prefer Nick Green in this spot, but he’s hitting .186/.264/.283 on the season (yes, games played for teams other than the Yankees do count). Phillips is probably the best defensive 1B on the team, and could fill in at third and second in a pinch. He also has a little pop of the bench, even though he’s not a good hitter.
Adding two pitchers and two infielders brings the roster up to 23, which leaves two spots left. One will probably go to Gary Sheffield unless he fails to start hitting or his defense at first becomes an issue. That leaves the last spot to either Craig Wilson or Aaron Guiel. Guiel’s been better than Wilson as a Yankee, and gives them a little more defensive flexibility (he can play all 3 OF positions and first base). Wilson would have the capacity to serve as a third catcher in an emergency, but if it gets to that point the Yankees have pretty big problems. I suppose you could argue Wilson over Phillips, and assume you don’t need two backup infielders. Wilson would be nice as a lefty masher, but Bernie Williams is going to be on the postseason roster and can fill that role as well.
So, my 25 man postseason roster would be:
Pitchers (10)
Wang
Mussina
Johnson
Rivera
Proctor
Farnsworth
Myers
Wright
Bruney
Rasner
Catchers (2)
Posada
Fasano
Infielders (6)
Cano
Jeter
Giambi
Rodriguez
Cairo
Phillips
Outfielders (7)
Damon
Abreu
Melky
Matsui
Bernie
Sheffield
Guiel
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