Monday, October 5, 2009
2009: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (First Half Edition)
I used to a do a quick season review of some of the key games in the Yankees season, although I didn’t do it in 2007 or 2008. With a couple of off days before the postseason starts, I thought it might be a good time to sit back and reflect on some of the 2009 season’s key moments and games. I’m going to split it into two posts, so this one is just focused on the first half. I’m obviously going to miss some along the way, so feel to add to the list in the comments.
Click on the date and score to go to the boxscore of the game.
April 6: Yankees 5, Orioles 10
C.C. Sabathia gets bombed in his Yankee debut, allowing six runs and walking five hitters and not making it out of the fifth, causing me to re-run his CAIRO projection.
April 8: Yankees 5, Orioles 7
Panic city, as the Yankees fell to 0-2. More troublesome was Chien-Ming Wang giving us a preview of what would end up being a disaster of a season as he allowed seven runs and nine hits before being pulled in the fourth.
April 9: Yankees 11, Orioles 2
A.J. Burnett pitches well as the Yankees finally win a game. Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher all homer, giving us a preview of what we’d be seeing 243 times in 2009.
April 15: Yankees 4, Rays 3
After splitting the first two games of a three game series with one of the teams the Yankees were expected to be fighting for a playoff spot, the Yankees entered the eighth inning trailing 3-2. Derek Jeter led off the eighth with a double, and Johnny Damon followed up with another one to tie the game at 3.
What happened in the ninth is still perhaps the most unexpected thing to ever happen on a baseball field. After a Brett Gardner strikeout, Cody Ransom doubled off Troy Percival. Yes, that Cody Ransom. After a Jose Molina lineout, Derek Jeter singled in Ransom to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead, and a perfect ninth by Mariano Rivera sealed the win.
April 16: Yankees 2, Indians 10
The Yankees drop the opener in NYS when Jose Veras and Damaso Marte give up nine runs in the 7th.
April 17: Yankees 6, Indians 5
After a solid first start, Joba Chamberlain got touched up in his second one and the Yankees trailed 5-3, before tallying single runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, the last run coming on Jeter’s third homer of the season. Jeter hit his third homer of 2008 on June 1.
April 18: Yankees 4, Indians 22
NYS reveals how disgraceful it will end up being as the Indians hit six HRs and score 16 runs in the first 3 innings off Wang and Anthony Claggett, who didn’t have much of a Yankee career before being waived last month.
April 22: Yankees 9, Athletics 7
With a 6-4 lead in the seventh, Sabathia gives up a pair to tie it. The Yanks and A’s trade zeroes until the fourteenth, when Melky Cabrera takes former Yankee Dan Giese for the win. This would be the first of 15 walkoff wins. It was the Yankees’ third straight win, which supposedly gave them momentum heading into…
April 24: Yankees 4, Red Sox 5
At 9-6 entering this game, the Yankees trailed the 10-5 Red Sox by one game in the standings. Joba Chamberlain worked around nine hits and four walks to hold the Red Sox to two runs, and the Yankees took a 4-2 lead against Hideki Okajima in the top of the seventh. Jonathan Albaladejo (seriously, check the box score) and Phil Coke held the Red Sox scoreless over the sventh and eighth, and the Yankees were three outs away from the win with Mo on the mound. Mo had pitched in seven games to this point in the season, and had allowed no runs.
Still, if you’d watched, you could see he wasn’t quite right. We would later find out that he was still building up his arm strength after offseason shoulder surgery. He struck out David Ortiz, which was impressive at the time, although not as much now in hindsight. Kevin Youkilis singled, then J.D. Drew grounded out to Cano. Needing just one more out Mo threw a cutter in a bad spot and Jason Bay hit a booming shot out just left of dead center over the Green Monster to tie the game at four. A Youkilis HR off Damaso Marte in the 11th gave the Red Sox the 5-4 win.
April 25, 2009: Yankees 11, Red Sox 16
Staked to a 6-0 lead, Burnett gives up five runs in the fourth and three in the fifth, wasting a Yankee offense that scored eight runs off Josh Beckett. The Yankees tried chipping away but their pen gave up another eight runs.
April 26: Red Sox 4, Yankees 1
The Red Sox complete the sweep, and every talking head dances with glee on the Yankees’ grave. Oh, how wrong they’d end up being…
April 27: Yankees 2, Tigers 4
Justin Verlander outduels Sabathia (let’s hope that we don’t see those words in the same sentence ever again, unless the order is reversed) at Comerica Park. Trailing 4-0 in the ninth, a Cano double is followed up by Swisher and Cabrera singles, which cut the lead to 4-1 and puts runners on first and third with no outs and brings up Jorge Posada as the tying run.
Unfortunately, Posada hits into a double play and Ramiro Pena flies out to end the thread. The Yankees drop below .500 at 9-10.
April 28: Yankees 11, Tigers 0
This game was actually scoreless after six innings. Before the Yankees wised up, they actually had Phil Hughes start a game. Can you imagine the foolishness? Anyway, it was Hughes’s first start of the season, and he pitched six scoreless innings allowing just two hits. The Yankees exploded for 10 runs in the seventh to turn it into a laugher.
May 1: Yankees 10, Angels 9
The Yankees take a quick 4-0 lead in the first against Jered Weaver, who then proceeds to shut them out for the next five innings. Andy “Battle Cat” Pettitte battles the Angels scoreless through the first five innings, until the Angels rally for six against him and Mark Melancon in the sixth.
Another three runs give the Halos a 9-4 lead. It stays that way until the bottom of the eighth when the Yankees score four to cut the lead to 9-8. With the tying run on second, Johnny Damon is called out on strikes, and it looks like long odds.
However, the Yankees first four base runners reach in the ninth via a walk and three singles. The third single (by Posada) plates Teixeira and Angel Berroa (yeah, he was on base, but as a pinch-runner, he did not reach of his own volition) and the Yankees have their second walkoff win of 2009.
May 7: Yankees 6, Rays 8
The Yankees were on a four game losing streak and trailed in the eighth by two. A Jeter single and Damon HR tie the game, but Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria hit back-to-back HRs off Rivera in the top of the ninth and the Yankees lose their fifth straight game. The homers were Rivera’s third and fourth allowed of the season over his first 49 batters faced.
For comparison’s sake, he allowed four HRs total in 2008 over 259 batters faced, and also four total in 2007 over 295 batters faced. The Yankees were now 13-15 on the season, and the lead story on Baseball Tonight every night.
May 8: Yankees 4, Orioles 0
After a lackluster start to his Yankee career with a 4.85 ERA and one win in six starts, Sabathia dominates the Orioles pitching a CG shutout, the first by a Yankee since Chien-Ming Wang did it on July 28, 2006. Also of note, Alex Rodriguez returned from the DL and homered in his first PA.
May 10: Yankees 5, Orioles 3
Down 3-2, Johnny Damon’s two-out three-run homer in the eighth off Jim Johnson gives the Yankees the lead, and eventually the win.
May 15: Yankees 5, Twins 4
Walkoff win # 3 came against one of the best closers in the game, Joe Nathan. Down 3-1, the Yankees’ odds of winning were probably around the same as a Mike Lupica article about the Yankees that doesn’t whine about payroll. Brett Gardner led off with a triple, Teixiera singled to drive him in and then Rodriguez walked. Nathan recovered to fan Hideki Matsui and getting Swisher to ground out.
With first base open, the Twins elected to walk Robinson Cano, apparently not aware that there were runners in scoring position. Melky took offense, singling in the tying and go ahead runs. Nathan had pitched the previous three days which was probably part of the reason it happened. He entered the game with a 1.29 ERA and left with a 3.07 ERA.
May 16: Yankees 6, Twins 4
Another walkoff, this one in extra innings as Alex “Garbage Time” Rodriguez took Craig Breslow deep with Mark Teixeira on base for the 6-4 win.
May 17: Yankees 3, Twins 2
For anyone that wants to say the Yankees “dominated” the Twins in the regular season, it took three straight walkoffs to win the first three games of this series. This was another extra inning affair, with Damon doing the honors.
May 23: Yankees 5, Phillies 4
Another walkoff. This time, down 4-2 against the 2008 World Series champs and last year’s perfect closer, Brad Lidge, the Yankees rallied to tie the game on a two-run Rodriguez homer, thne won it after a Cano single and steal and a Cabrera single. In hindsight rallying of Lidge doesn’t seem that impressive, but it was nice at the time.
June 1: Yankees 5, Indians 2
Chamberlain pitches the eighth. And seventh. And sixth. And fifth. And fourth. And third. And second. And first, in the longest outing of his career.
June 6: Yankees 7, Rays 9
You ask Mariano Rivera to intentionally walk someone?
June 8: Yankees 5, Rays 3
Phil Hughes makes his first relief appearance of 2009 and picks up his first hold. This would end up being a pretty significant event even if it came in the seventh instead of the eighth.
June 11: Yankees 3, Red Sox 4
Trying to take their first game against Boston after dropping the first seven, C.C. Sabathia dominates over the first seven innings and the Yankees take a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth. Joe Girardi sticks with Sabathia while the first three batters reach, then brings in Alfredo Aceves, who gives up back to back sngles then a sacrifice fly to give the Red Sox the lead and eventually the win.
June 12: Yankees 9, Mets 8
Reeling after being swept by Boston, the Yankees returned home to face the Mets. I suppose you can make a case about feeling sorry for Mets fans, but I’m pretty sure if the roles were reversed most of them would be cackling with glee.
Anyway, the Mets win this game 99.9% of the time in an alternate universe. In this universe, Luis Castillo drops a two-out ninth inning infield pop up with his team up by one and the tying and winning runs on base. Both score. Yankees win, Mets lose.
June 14: Yankees 15, Mets 0
The Yankees torch Johan Santana, and all the articles about how stupid the Yankees were for not trading Hughes and Melky for him magically stop appearing.
June 18: Yankees 0, Nationals 3
The Yankees lose the rubber game of a series. AT HOME. AGAINST THE NATIONALS. Craig Stammen throws 6.1 scoreless innings. It would be the only outing of his 19 on the season where he didn’t allow at least one run.
June 20: Yankees 1, Marlins 2
Burnett pitches well. Josh Johnson pitches better. A Damon error in LF ends up being the difference.
June 23: Yankees 0, Braves 4
The only game I went to in person this year. Considered by many to be the turning point of the season, as the Yankees would drop this one then win their next seven.
June 23: Yankees 8, Braves 4
Joe Girardi gets ejected, and the Yankees score eight runs over the last four innings to beat the Braves.
June 28: Yankees 4, Mets 2
Hard to believe, but Wang won a game this year. This was the one, completing a sweep of the Mets. Even more noteworthy in this game was Mo picking up his 500th career save, and his first career RBI on a bases-loaded walk. No would have lead the AL in OBP this year if he had qualified.
July 4: Yankees 6, Blue Jays 5
Posada singles in the winning run in the 12th for walkoff # 8.
July 10: Yankees 6, Angels 10
The Yankees stormed into Anaheim before the All Star Break having won 13 of their last 15 games, and jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead. Unfortunately, Chamberlain, Melancona nd Brian Bruney gave up the lead and then some, although they weren’t helped by errors by Jeter and Rodriguez.
July 12: Yankees 4, Angels 5
The Angels complete the sweep, and make us all mad.
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Yankees.com: With nine runs off Santana, Yanks roll
Santana allowed a career-high nine runs and exited with no outs in the fourth inning as the Yankees took two of three games in the weekend series, highlighting their victory by sending 12 men to the plate in a nine-run fourth inning.
The Yankees had put up four runs to take an early lead against Santana in the second inning, and the left-hander’s luck only soured in the fourth. Hideki Matsui belted a two-run homer and Derek Jeter chased Santana with a single past diving shortstop Alex Cora—one of his four hits—to score the seventh run. Catcher Francisco Cervelli collected three hits, pushing his average above .300.
You just can’t predict baseball, Susan.
Friday, November 28, 2008
NY Daily News: CC Sabathia buyers beware: $100 million pitching pacts big risks
While Sabathia has proven he’s a terrific, durable pitcher, there are plentiful cautionary tales for the Yankees, Brewers and Angels to consider. None of the four previous $100 million pitchers - Brown, Santana, Barry Zito and Mike Hampton - has pitched in the playoffs for the team he signed with. In fact, none of the teams that have signed a pitcher to a nine-figure deal has made the playoffs while that pitcher has been on their roster.
Isn’t a little soon to be criticizing the Santana deal?
I’m going to be on vacation for the next three weeks with probably no internet access, so the blog may be quiet, although I’ve asked some people if they could keep it updated. I hope to return to find out the Yankees have signed Sabathia and Teixeira, and not Lowe or Ramirez.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Diamond Mind and CAIRO post-Santana trade
I've gotten a few requests for this, so here are the CAIRO/Diamond Mind simulations with Santana traded to the Metsies.| AL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Bos08 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 881 | 695 | 54.8 | 32.5 | 92 - 104 | 839 - 923 | 659 - 730 |
| NYA08 | 96.5 | 65.6 | 940 | 770 | 35.8 | 42.0 | 90 - 103 | 893 - 988 | 726 - 814 |
| Tor08 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 775 | 710 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 80 - 94 | 736 - 814 | 673 - 748 |
| Tam08 | 76.9 | 85.1 | 806 | 853 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 71 - 83 | 769 - 843 | 815 - 891 |
| Bal08 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 768 | 908 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63 - 75 | 730 - 807 | 865 - 950 |
| AL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Det08 | 91.0 | 71.0 | 905 | 784 | 55.0 | 3.5 | 85 - 97 | 859 - 952 | 745 - 824 |
| Cle08 | 89.4 | 72.6 | 828 | 719 | 43.0 | 6.0 | 84 - 95 | 790 - 867 | 682 - 756 |
| KC08 | 75.1 | 86.9 | 768 | 847 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 69 - 81 | 729 - 807 | 809 - 885 |
| ChA08 | 73.9 | 88.1 | 779 | 850 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 68 - 80 | 743 - 814 | 809 - 890 |
| Min08 | 72.0 | 90.1 | 699 | 794 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 66 - 78 | 660 - 738 | 756 - 832 |
| AL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| LAA08 | 89.3 | 72.7 | 801 | 712 | 83.5 | 1.0 | 83 - 95 | 758 - 845 | 675 - 748 |
| Sea08 | 78.3 | 83.7 | 721 | 778 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 72 - 85 | 682 - 761 | 736 - 821 |
| Tex08 | 74.6 | 87.4 | 821 | 904 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 68 - 81 | 781 - 860 | 861 - 947 |
| Oak08 | 73.2 | 88.8 | 739 | 813 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 68 - 79 | 703 - 775 | 769 - 858 |
| NL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| NYN08 | 94.7 | 67.4 | 827 | 696 | 80.5 | 7.3 | 89 - 101 | 785 - 869 | 660 - 733 |
| Phi08 | 84.4 | 77.6 | 864 | 813 | 10.5 | 17.0 | 78 - 90 | 823 - 905 | 770 - 855 |
| Atl08 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 780 | 764 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 77 - 89 | 737 - 823 | 729 - 800 |
| Was08 | 73.8 | 88.2 | 774 | 856 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68 - 80 | 737 - 811 | 819 - 894 |
| Flo08 | 66.3 | 95.7 | 734 | 894 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61 - 72 | 699 - 769 | 851 - 936 |
| NL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| ChN08 | 89.2 | 72.8 | 804 | 718 | 61.5 | 6.3 | 83 - 95 | 764 - 844 | 677 - 759 |
| Mil08 | 85.6 | 76.4 | 810 | 755 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 79 - 92 | 774 - 846 | 717 - 793 |
| Cin08 | 78.9 | 83.1 | 771 | 806 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 72 - 85 | 732 - 811 | 762 - 850 |
| Hou08 | 77.6 | 84.4 | 770 | 795 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 72 - 84 | 732 - 809 | 759 - 830 |
| StL08 | 77.2 | 84.8 | 763 | 801 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 71 - 83 | 724 - 802 | 766 - 837 |
| Pit08 | 68.2 | 93.9 | 692 | 838 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 62 - 74 | 660 - 725 | 799 - 876 |
| NL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Col08 | 85.2 | 76.8 | 832 | 788 | 28.5 | 6.3 | 79 - 92 | 789 - 875 | 752 - 823 |
| Ari08 | 85.1 | 76.9 | 748 | 710 | 21.5 | 13.0 | 79 - 91 | 712 - 784 | 670 - 749 |
| LAN08 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 770 | 750 | 23.5 | 7.8 | 80 - 90 | 734 - 805 | 713 - 787 |
| SD08 | 83.2 | 78.8 | 748 | 697 | 26.5 | 5.5 | 77 - 90 | 707 - 788 | 660 - 735 |
| SF08 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 686 | 789 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62 - 76 | 649 - 723 | 745 - 834 |
It's about 4-5 win upgrade for the Mets, which is huge. It doesn't impact the AL all that much aside from making Minnesota worse, which benefits the AL Central second place team in their pursuit of the wild card.
I know there are some fans that are disappointed that the Yankees didn't give up a package of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and "a top prospect." Don't count me among them. Santana would have cost the Yankees at least $20 million a year plus another $5 million or so in luxury tax, for what would have been a 2008 regular season upgrade of maybe a win or two, most likely followed by diminishing returns over over the remainder of Johan's extension. We don't know who the "top prospect" would have been. As the simulations show, the Yankees are still a very good team. Not as good as Boston, but being better than Boston didn't help them from 2001-2006.
I'll continue the top twenty position player seasons tomorrow with LF.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
USA Today:Twins agree to deal Santana to Mets for prospects
The New York Mets have agreed to a trade for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, giving up four prospects to acquire the left-handed ace of the Minnesota Twins, according to two high-ranking Twins officials with knowledge of the talks and a person close to Santana.
The deal is pending the Mets and Santana reaching agreement on a six- or seven-year contract extension and that Santana passes a physical; they have been granted a 48 to-72-hour window to do so. Santana has a no-trade clause that he will waive if agreement is reached on a contract extension.
The Mets paid a high price in prospects to land Santana, agreeing to send the Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey.
Phil Hughes fans rejoice! Thanks to MC in VA for the link.
Monday, January 14, 2008
ESPN: Source: Yankees pull trade offer for Santana
For the second time this offseason, the Yankees have pulled their Phil Hughes-centered trade offer for Johan Santana off the table.
The Yankees, then, will not restart trade talks with the Twins unless Hank Steinbrenner has another change of heart, a baseball official with knowledge of the talks told 1050 ESPN Radio’s Andrew Marchand.
The Yankees’ desire Monday to turn their attention away from the two-time Cy Young winner leaves Boston and the New York Mets as Minnesota’s trade partners, the official told Marchand.
“We’re not desperate, so we’re not going to chase anything,” Steinbrenner told the New York Daily News in early January.
Sweet. We won’t have to hear any more Santana speculation. And yes, I’m being sarcastic.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Daily News: Yanks: We have shot at Johan Santana
Steinbrenner would not divulge the Yanks’ offer, but multiple reports have pegged it as Hughes, outfielder Melky Cabrera, pitching prospect Jeff Marquez and another prospect. Santana, a two-time Cy Young Award winner, probably would require a huge extension with his potential new team to waive his no-trade clause. Some reports have said it could be as much as six years for $120 million.
It’s the story that won’t go away…
Friday, December 28, 2007
Jacoby vs. Melky
Two names prominent in most of the Johan Santana rumors are Melky Cabrera and Jacoby Ellsbury. According to rumors/reports, Ellsbury would be the centerpiece of a potential Red Sox deal for Santana but Melky is just a throw-in.In an earlier thread fgasparini asked:
I'm wondering about Melky vs Ellsbury. I did some tooling around the site but couldn't find Ellsbury #s, though I thought there was a RS CAIRO projection somewhere. Anyway, aren't they kind of the same player, only Ellsbury has more hype because he did well in small sample size last year?
They're not really the same player, but it's reasonable to wonder if their overall value might be similar. Here's a quick look at my MLEs (major league equivalencies) and major league batting lines for the two. Lastly I've also added their CHONE and CAIRO projections for 2008.
| Year | Name | Age | Team | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | BRaA/650 | BRaR/650 |
| 2003 | Cabrera | 18 | STI | 259 | 59 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 39 | 8 | 5 | .228 | .262 | .274 | 38 | -46 | -29 |
| 2004 | Cabrera | 19 | MID | 151 | 37 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 2 | .245 | .278 | .338 | 56 | -28 | -11 |
| 2004 | Cabrera | 19 | TAM | 314 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 14 | 71 | 2 | 1 | .245 | .277 | .366 | 59 | -24 | -8 |
| 2005 | Cabrera | 20 | TRE | 410 | 101 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 48 | 21 | 71 | 7 | 2 | .246 | .285 | .363 | 61 | -22 | -6 |
| 2005 | Cabrera | 20 | COL | 98 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | .224 | .296 | .316 | 56 | -28 | -11 |
| 2005 | Cabrera | 20 | NYA | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .211 | .211 | .211 | 28 | -56 | -39 |
| 2006 | Cabrera | 21 | COL | 116 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 1 | .353 | .397 | .491 | 103 | 20 | 36 |
| 2006 | Cabrera | 21 | NYA | 461 | 129 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 50 | 56 | 60 | 12 | 5 | .280 | .356 | .390 | 80 | -3 | 13 |
| 2007 | Cabrera | 22 | NYA | 545 | 149 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 73 | 43 | 68 | 13 | 5 | .273 | .322 | .391 | 72 | -11 | 6 |
| CAIRO | 23 | 533 | 147 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 68 | 51 | 71 | 11 | 4 | .276 | .337 | .392 | 76 | -8 | 9 | ||
| CHONE | 23 | 536 | 149 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 49 | 74 | 15 | 6 | .278 | .342 | .397 | 78 | -5 | 11 |
| Year | Name | Age | Team | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | BRaA/650 | BRaR/650 |
| 2005 | Ellsbury | 21 | LOW | 128 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 14 | 4 | .258 | .329 | .336 | 70 | -14 | 3 |
| 2006 | Ellsbury | 22 | WIL | 230 | 59 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 26 | 16 | 8 | .257 | .315 | .348 | 63 | -20 | -4 |
| 2006 | Ellsbury | 22 | PRT | 190 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 7 | .279 | .340 | .384 | 73 | -11 | 6 |
| 2007 | Ellsbury | 23 | PRT | 69 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 1 | .420 | .474 | .594 | 145 | 62 | 79 |
| 2007 | Ellsbury | 23 | PAW | 352 | 97 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 25 | 41 | 21 | 6 | .276 | .328 | .352 | 70 | -14 | 3 |
| 2007 | Ellsbury | 23 | BOS | 116 | 41 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 0 | .353 | .394 | .509 | 116 | 33 | 49 |
| CAIRO | 24 | 365 | 106 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 28 | 51 | 18 | 6 | .290 | .348 | .411 | 84 | 0 | 17 | ||
| CHONE | 24 | 512 | 153 | 33 | 5 | 6 | 57 | 37 | 65 | 36 | 11 | .299 | .353 | .418 | 88 | 4 | 21 |
BR/650: Batting runs per 650 plate appearances using linear weights
BRaA/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above average per 650 plate appearances
BRaA/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement per 650 plate appearances
Ellsbury projects to be about a win better over a full season based on those numbers. He is also faster than Melky so is probably worth a few more runs in non-stolen base baserunning. As far as defense, there's not enough data to assess Ellsbury empirically, although the scouting reports like him. Melky rates well in some metrics and poorly in others and he does have a stronger arm, so they may be roughly comparable overall on defense.
Melky seems to have a bit more raw power since some of Ellsbury's SLG comes from his speed, and Cabrera is about a year younger so he may have bit more room to grow. Conversely, Melky's stockier and may not be able to stay in CF long-term.
I hate to say it but the numbers don't lie here. Ellsbury looks to be significantly better than Melky, in current value and projected value. Add in speed that makes scouts drool and an extra year of pre-arbitration eligibility and it's perfectly understandable why Elllsbury'd be more attractive to the Twins.
Speaking of projections, I've uploaded the latest version of CAIRO (v1.0) here. I don't expect to make any more changes to the formulas I'm using, but I will make changes as players switch teams or if I or anyone else finds any problems.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Johan and the AL East
Johan Santana continues to be a topic of discussion during the Hot Stove season. Although there are probably other teams in the mix, the most likely scenario sees him going to either Boston or the Yankees, with Boston the probable favorite right now. Long-time lurker and first-time poster plank asked:I'd love to see the standing simulations done with the proposed yankees and red sox trades for Santana. How far ahead would the Sox be with him? Would the Yankees pull ahead with Johan?
Since I take requests, I ran three sets of Diamond Mind Simulations, with three hypothetical scenarios:
Scenario 1
Santana to the Yankees for Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. While the Yankees would likely have to include other prospects in the deal, I don't have any idea which prospects they would be so I left that out of the equation.
Scenario 2
Santana to Boston for Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie. Same deal with the prospects here.
Scenario 3
Santana to Boston for Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie. Same deal again with the prospects.
First off, let's revisit the CAIRO/Diamond Mind simulations with no trades.
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| Bos08 | 97.0 | 65.0 | 879 | 716 | 50 | 30 |
| NYA08 | 96.1 | 65.9 | 941 | 769 | 45 | 34 |
| Tor08 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 804 | 741 | 6 | 14 |
| Tam08 | 78.1 | 83.9 | 820 | 848 | 0 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 69.1 | 92.9 | 785 | 912 | 0 | 0 |
So this is our baseline to see what kind of a difference Santana would make, although I think it's a little bullish on the Yankees..
Let's look at scenario 1 first.
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| NYA08 | 97.6 | 64.4 | 942 | 758 | 56 | 28 |
| Bos08 | 96.1 | 65.9 | 869 | 708 | 38 | 44 |
| Tor08 | 86.3 | 75.7 | 802 | 747 | 7 | 12 |
| Tam08 | 78.3 | 83.7 | 824 | 851 | 0 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 69.7 | 92.3 | 786 | 908 | 0 | 0 |
Getting Santana improved the Yankees by 11 runs allowed, and 1.5 wins. It took them from a 45% chance of winning the division to a 56% chance. This doesn't mean that Santana was only worth 11 runs above Phil Hughes, but it does mean this:
a) 220 innings of Santana vs. 160 innings of Phil Hughes plus 60 innings of Kei Igawa = 30 run upgrade.
b) Moving Johnny Damon to CF to replace Melky = -10 runs saved defensively (range plus arm)
c) Moving Hideki Matsui to LF instead of DH = -9 runs saved defensively
d) More AB for Jason Giambi and Brett Gardner, who would probably be the fourth OF if Melky gets traded= no net change in runs scored. Any upgrade from Giambi playing more (although I still restricted his playing time to about 300 PA per season) would be mitigated by more PA from Gardner.
So the Yankees upgrade their pitching by 30 runs and downgrade their defense by 19 runs, an 11 run overall improvement.
For Scenario 2 here's what happened:
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| Bos08 | 99.7 | 62.3 | 883 | 691 | 61 | 22 |
| NYA08 | 95.1 | 66.9 | 936 | 773 | 31 | 44 |
| Tor08 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 811 | 748 | 7 | 15 |
| Tam08 | 77.9 | 84.1 | 823 | 857 | 1 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 68.8 | 93.3 | 792 | 922 | 0 | 0 |
Santana to Boston for Ellsbury+ improves Boston's pitching by about 25 runs (mainly replacing Wakefield and Lester innings). It changes them from a projected 97 wins to a projected 99.7 wins and improves their odds of winning the AL East to 61%. It's also worth noting that the Yankees got a win worse, ostensibly because they'd face Santana 3-5 times a season.
Lastly, scenario 3:
| Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC |
| Bos08 | 99.7 | 62.3 | 881 | 684 | 66 | 25 |
| NYA08 | 95.7 | 66.3 | 937 | 775 | 30 | 50 |
| Tor08 | 86.6 | 75.4 | 807 | 747 | 5 | 16 |
| Tam08 | 77.4 | 84.6 | 824 | 857 | 0 | 1 |
| Bal08 | 70.4 | 91.6 | 797 | 911 | 0 | 0 |
In this instance, Boston saved even more runs as they lost more innings by Lester and kept Ellsbury AND Coco Crisp which gave them a better defense when they were able to play the two together. This scenario improves the Red Sox's chances at the AL East to 66%.
So put it all together and what does it mean? Santana makes the Yankees a slightly better team than Boston although the difference is fairly small. If Boston gets Santana in either case, they gain a 3 win advantage on the Yankees. It is worth noting that the Yankees are still the second-most likely favorites to make the playoffs but once they get there they'd be staring at the specter of matching up against Santana and Beckett.
Monday, December 3, 2007
ESPN - Stark: Yankees might pull out of Santana talks for good
With the Yankee’s self-imposed deadline approaching, the Twins and Yankees were getting nowhere Monday night in their attempt to complete a deal for Johan Santana. So the Yankees were again making noises that they might pull out of the Santana talks for good.
“I want to get it done by tonight, one way or another,” Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said, according to The Associated Press. “I’m waiting for a meeting in Nashville, and then Brian will give me a call.”
According to baseball officials who were aware of the talks, the Twins again asked the Yankees on Monday night for pitcher Ian Kennedy—a pitcher the Yankees have insisted for several days that they wouldn’t trade—as the third player in their proposed deal. The Yankees apparently turned down that proposal immediately.
The Yankees have held firm since Friday that if pitcher Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera were part of their offer, the third player heading for Minnesota would have to be a second-tier prospect. So the highly regarded Kennedy headed a list of “untouchables” that included Joba Chamberlain, pitcher Alan Horne and outfielders Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata.
But the Twins also haven’t budged since Friday. They wanted Kennedy then, and they still do. So unless one side or the other gives, it now appears a trade that once appeared inevitable could blow up for good.
And if Alex Rodriguez opts out, the Yankees will not pursue him.
NY Daily News: Hank Steinbrenner says Yankee offer for Johan Santana is ‘fair’
With all the parties descending upon the winter meetings, the Red Sox upped the ante in the Johan Santana sweepstakes Sunday by offering to include previously untouchable rookie center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a deal for the Twins’ premier lefthander.
At the same time, a “very irritated” Hank Steinbrenner said he’s had enough of the Santana sweepstakes and wants it resolved Monday.
You and me both Hank. You and me both.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Why I don’t like the Recent Santana Trade Rumors
Johan Santana will very probably be the best pitcher in baseball in 2008. He would make the Yankees a better team. Unfortunately, it looks more and more like it will cost the Yankees Phil Hughes to get him. If that’s the case I will have a very difficult time dealing with this theoretical trade if it happens.
I’ve already gone through the numbers about the potential for Santana to decline going forward. That’s the scenario based on the history of starting pitchers entering their 30s. It’s really not the decrease in performance that’s the big concern, it’s the high attrition rate due to injuries. It’s a simple fact that pitchers collectively pitch fewer innings as they age and that cuts into their value. It does not mean that Santana will not be able to continue excelling for 34 starts a year, just that it’s unlikely.
So the Yankees would probably be signing Santana to a big money extension while there’s a very solid risk that he will be getting paid for his 2003-2007 seasons and not his 2008-20?? whatever seasons. Frankly, that’s not a big deal to me. That’s just money and the Yankees have pissed away a lot of money over the years on horrible signings.
The problem is trading Hughes. The Yankees will be trading Hughes for basically one year of Santana and the right to pay him what he probably feels is his market rate going forward. Think of Hughes as a posting fee for the right to sign Santana basically.
There is a group of Yankee fans for whom winning the World Series is the only reason they watch the team apparently. Anything less than that makes the season a waste. Once the Yankees lose a few games they stop watching the team untl the next winning streak. I have no problem if that’s the type of fan you are, but I’m not that kind of fan. While I’d like to see my team win the World Series every year, I understand that it’s just not possible and that it’d probably ruin baseball.
I try to enjoy every game of the season. I watch baseball to be entertained for however many of the 162 regular season games I can watch or listen to plus the postseason. I like to see uncertainty. I like to build an emotional connection to the players I watch pretty much every freaking day. I like to hear and read about the draft and international free agent signings. Then I like to follow the exploits of those draftees and signings as they move up the minor league chain. I pour over scouting reports and stats and all the information that’s available out there and anticipate the arrival of the next big thing.
I’ve been a Yankee fan since the mid 1980s. I’ve always felt this way. We didn’t have the internets back in them days but I used to ride my bike to U.S. News every two weeks to grab Baseball America. I looked through every stat line in the back and read every scouting report and looked over every top 10 list waiting for the next great wave of Yankees to arrive. From Dan Pasqua to Rex Hudler to Henry Cotto to Alfonso Pulido to Bob Geren to Scott Nielsen to Gerald and Bernie Williams to Al Leiter to Roberto Kelly to Jay Buhner and so on. When Leiter got traded for Jesse Barfield I was devastated.
Think of the progression with Hughes. He was drafted in the first round of the June 2004 draft with the compensation pick the Yankees got for losing Andy Pettitte. Most people hated the pick at the time because OMG HE’s A HIGH SCHOOL PITCHER AND THEY ALWAYS GET HURT. Hughes pitched a couple of games in 2004, but really made his presence known in 2005 in class A and A+. In what was being considered a barren Yankee farm system he was getting publicity as a true phenom. Then came a monstrous 2006 where Hughes really stamped himself as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. We finally got to see him pitch in 2007 and while he had his ups and downs he gave us plenty of glimpses of the potential he showed in the minors, and the hope of better to come in the future.
So now, after four years of anticipation and building an emotional attachment to Hughes, he may be gone. Just like that. The guy who was untouchable might no longer be a Yankee. It sucks.
Odds are that Hughes will not live up to his hype. It’s just a fact. He’s probably never going to be as good as Johan Santana is right now. But it would have been more enjoyable for me as a fan to see if he could be, than to watch another person who came to the team for money and who adds to the feeling that anything less than a World Series victory is a disgrace. Santana’s not Kevin Brown or Randy Johnson, he’s going to be 29 and still in his prime, so it’s not quite as bad as it was with those two. While my forecast for Santana is correctly pessimistic after the next few seasons, there’s a good chance he’ll continue to be great for the forseeable future. I completely understand why the Yankees made this move might make this move.
But I am just not feeling excited about potentially adding the guy who is probably going to the best pitcher in baseball in 2008 when I probably should be. Losing Hughes would sting. A lot.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Forecasting Johan Santana through 2014
In the last thread, yup said:SG, if you have time, i would LOVE to see a 6 year projection for Santana (a la the one you did for A-Rod) and say, Cano..
I'll save Cano for later on, but i guess I can take a look at Santana. Before I do, let me say that I am still not very happy with my pitcher projections for 2008 but I don't think any forecaster ever really likes projecting pitching. It's an exercise in frustration. So if projecting 2008 is going to be that much of a crapshoot, just keep in mind the error bars as we try to project out further than that are going to be that much bigger. But an educated guess with some reasonably informed assumptions is probably better than nothing at all, so here goes. If we assume Santana gets traded to the Yankees for 2008 and then signs a 6 year extension, here's a rough stab at the possible shape of his contributions over that stretch.
| Year | Age | G | GS | Sv | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | ERA | RSaA | RSaR | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | WAA | WAR |
| 2008 | 29 | 33 | 32 | 0 | 16 | 9 | 220 | 168 | 86 | 80 | 28 | 56 | 230 | 3.26 | 26 | 53 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 5.3 |
| 2009 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 207 | 160 | 83 | 76 | 26 | 53 | 214 | 3.33 | 23 | 48 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 4.8 |
| 2010 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 0 | 15 | 10 | 194 | 152 | 80 | 74 | 25 | 50 | 199 | 3.43 | 20 | 43 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| 2011 | 32 | 27 | 26 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 181 | 145 | 77 | 71 | 23 | 47 | 181 | 3.53 | 16 | 38 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 3.8 |
| 2012 | 33 | 26 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 9 | 168 | 139 | 74 | 68 | 22 | 45 | 165 | 3.64 | 13 | 33 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 3.3 |
| 2013 | 34 | 24 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 156 | 133 | 70 | 64 | 21 | 42 | 149 | 3.71 | 11 | 30 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 3.0 |
| 2014 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 145 | 130 | 66 | 61 | 19 | 40 | 133 | 3.78 | 9 | 26 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Total | 193 | 186 | 0 | 95 | 65 | 1272 | 1027 | 536 | 495 | 163 | 333 | 1271 | 3.50 | 117 | 270 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 27.0 |
RsaA: Runs saved above average
RsAR: Runs saved above replacement
WAA: Wins above average
WAR: Wins above replacement
Have I mentioned that projecting pitching is a crapshoot? Anyway, Santana's probably going to be worth about 5 wins above a replacement pitcher over the next two seasons, followed by a slow but steady decline. Historically pitchers pitch fewer innings as they enter their 30s so we'd expect his innings to decline, which cuts into his value. Santana could certainly do better than that, but the logical progression says to expect fewer innings each year, especially given his relatively small frame and stature. We'd also expect him to become a little more hittable and to strike out fewer batters going forward. He's good enough that even with decline he'll be an above average pitcher through this hypothetical extension, but that ignores the fact that as a pitcher he's an injury risk, and he's likely had his best seasons already.
An aging pattern like this would mean Santana would be worth about 27 marginal wins over the seven years he'd have been signed for hypothetically. Santana's owed $13.25 million for next season, in which he projects to be worth about 5.3 wins above replacement so for 2008 he's a pretty good value. How about going forward?
I have no idea what Santana would take for an extension, but let's assume something like $157.5 million over six years. In present day value that's probably closer to $115 million or so. Overall he'd end up costing the Yankees around $5.2 million per marginal win in present-day value from 2009-2014. So while Santana's not a bargain, he should be worth his contract over the bulk of it. By the time Santana's decline makes him no longer an ace, the hope would be that the Yankee rotation will be fronted by Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Dellin Bettances, or Andrew Brackman anyway.
Santana's been great, but he's not going to be as great as he was. Factor the likely upcoming decline in with the cost it's going to take to sign him and I really hope the Yankees are smart and don't end up overpaying for him. I'd love to have him, but only at a reasonable cost. To me, Hughes, Chamberlain, Jackson and Cano are off-limits. Any other combination of bits and pieces and I'd probably be pretty happy with it.
Poll: Who would you trade for Santana?
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Santana/Yankees Trade Rumor
I'm not one to dwell much on trade rumors. I don't have 'sources' and 95% of the stuff we hear never comes to pass. But what the hell, it's the offseason and I've got blogger's block, so let's look at the trade rumor that was first posted at MLB Trade Rumors.Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand. They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That's a huge price, but doesn't seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.
I can't speak to MLB Trade Rumors' credibility, but they have a site and they do their thing and at the very least it spurs some discussion. Ignoring the site's credibility or lack thereof, it's an interesting question. Is Rowand + Santana + lots of money gone worth Wang/Kennedy/Melky?
As a fan, I don't like this trade. Santana should stay a Twin, and Wang, Kennedy and Melky should stay Yankees. It's more fun to root for players who broke through on your team and it's a shame that someone like Santana won't be able to stay a Twin. However, if Santana decides he wants to leave, then I'd rather see him come to the Yankees than go to the Red Sox or Mets.
So let's look at the pitching side of the deal first. Here are the CAIRO projections for Santana, Wang, and Kennedy.
| Player | AGE | TEAM | LG | Prole | Prole | ERA | ERA+ | G | W | L | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RS |
| Johan Santana | 29 | MIN | AL | S | S | 3.34 | 130 | 37 | 14 | 11 | 221 | 199 | 82 | 27 | 50 | 233 | 56 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 28 | NYA | AL | S | S | 3.93 | 114 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 202 | 210 | 88 | 12 | 56 | 95 | 38 |
| Ian Kennedy | 23 | NYA | AL | S | S | 4.36 | 103 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 190 | 192 | 92 | 23 | 75 | 146 | 27 |
In the table above, RS is runs saved above a replacement pitcher (5.62 ERA). 221 innings of Santana is worth about 5.6 wins above a replacement starter. 392 innings of Wang and Kennedy is worth about 6.5 wins. To replace the missing innings between Santana and Wang/Kennedy the Yankees need 171 innings of 5.17 ERA. That doesn't seem particularly difficult to find. Just avoid Sean Henn, Jeff Karstens and Kei Igawa.
How about losing Melky and replacing him with Rowand?
Rowand had a good year for Philly, but at age 30 it would be folly to expect the same going forward. Here's a look at three different CAIRO projections. The first two are for Rowand's baseline projection as a Phillie and then as a Yankee. For Melky it's his baseline projection as a Yankee.
| Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| Aaron Rowand | PHI | 140 | 569 | 513 | 148 | 34 | 2 | 18 | 80 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .288 | .345 | .470 | .815 | 11 |
| Aaron Rowand | NYA | 140 | 569 | 513 | 147 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 77 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .286 | .344 | .457 | .800 | 8 |
| Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
Swapping out Rowand for Melky projects to be somewhere around a one win upgrade on offense. On defense I have Rowand projected to be a +7 defender and Melky a +4, so that's another couple of runs but not enough to be a big difference.
Here's one last set of projections, Melky's range of CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO | Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| 80% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 172 | 34 | 8 | 14 | 83 | 63 | 64 | 15 | 4 | .308 | .379 | .472 | .852 | 26 |
| 65% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 164 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 77 | 58 | 70 | 13 | 4 | .294 | .360 | .438 | .797 | 11 |
| Baseline | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
| 35% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 135 | 544 | 484 | 129 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 43 | 69 | 8 | 3 | .267 | .321 | .368 | .689 | -11 |
| 20% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 129 | 523 | 465 | 118 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 37 | 71 | 6 | 2 | .253 | .302 | .333 | .635 | -18 |
I like Melky a lot, but that 80% projectile looks very unlikely. However, I think his 65% projection is very achievable, in which case he'd be just as valuable as Rowand.
Ignoring contracts for a minute, Santana plus 171 innings of
Now, let's look at contracts. Any trade for Santana is going to include a contract extension at probably at least $17 million a year for four or five years. Rowand is going to probably get at least a Gary Matthews Jr. type contract, 5 years and $50 million. Could be more, could be less, but that seems like what the market will bear for a good defensive CF who had a solid offensive season.
It just doesn't make sense. I think Santana's great. I'd love to have him as a Yankee if he leaves the Twins, but adding $25 million in payroll for one win in 2008 just doesn't seem rational. Not when you are likely going to have to overpay to keep some combination of A-Rod, Posada, and Mo. Of course adding Santana makes the Yankees a better postseason team if they make it, because Santana projects to be one of the top two or three pitchers in the AL. He's also just a year older than Wang, but with a lot more mileage on his arm.
Besides, the Twins have lots of young pitching on the way. I'd think they would rather get young position players than pitchers.
Monday, September 11, 2006
Is Derek Jeter the AL MVP?
As the Yankees seemingly coast into the postseason, there have been many players who’ve played big roles. When you have a $200 million payroll and All Star players at almost every position, that’s to be expected. One player has been more important for the Yankees this season than any other, though, and it’s Derek Jeter. Jeter went 2 for 4 in yesterday’s 9-4 victory over Baltimore, and added four RBI.
The question that many are starting to ask is if Jeter has been the most valuable player in the American League this season. He’s certainly got a case for it, but how strong is it? Let’s see if we can figure it out.
Here are the American League offensive leaders in batting runs by linear weights. If you are not familiar with this, it’s a linear regression model to figure out the value of a player’s offensive contributions based on the statistics he accumulates. This link has some good background information on it. I like linear weights because it is quite comprehensive. It includes stolen bases and caught stealings, and double plays, and I’ve even tweaked the formula I’m using to include reaching on errors, since that is also valuable.
Once I get a batting runs value for a player, I then make two adjustments. The first adjustment is a park adjustment. If a player plays in a park that boosts scoring, his performance gets deducted accordingly. If he plays in a park that stifles scoring, he gets the appropriate credit. This adjustment is pretty simple, you just multiply their raw BR total by one plus their home park run factor, divided by two. The position adjustment is a little more involved. I just calculate the BR for every player listed at the same position, average them, and then give the appropriate credit or debit to each individual.
So now that I’ve explained it, here’s what it says.
Since most players also play defense, I then do my defensive calculations using Zone Rating, and add them to each of the contenders. Based on some discussions I’ve read and had with others, I’m not sure that purely adding/subtracting a player’s defensive value from their offensive value is the best way to do this. In other words, a bad defensive shortstop might be more valuable defensively than an average defensive first baseman or a DH, but they end up getting penalized. However, I’m still working out how to sort through this in my head, so for now it’s just a straight addition or deduction.
I also don’t think pitchers should be excluded in this, so I add them in here. I calculate pitcher’s RSAA (runs saved above average) using the same linear weights based formula but for what opposing hitters do against them. Starters are only compared to other starters, and relievers are compared to other relievers.
So including defense and pitchers to the table above, here are the new rankings. DR are defensive runs saved above/below average at their position.
Grady Sizemore, eh? He’s having a tremendous season on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately for him, his team has disappointed which means he’s probably not on most voters’ radar. His teammate, Travis Hafner is going to miss the rest of the season, so he’s done accruing value and is also likely not going to get as many votes as he may have had he finished out the season. By the way, a 1 or 2 run difference here is within the margin of error we’re dealing with, to claim precision to one run (particularly on defense) is not accurate. Jeter’s been about as valuable as both Sizemore and Hafner, which is how you should interpret the results above. Joe Mauer and Johan Santana are right up there with them, too.
Jeter’s been playing very good defense (according to zone rating) since the week after the All Star Break. Since July 24, ZR has him having made 113 plays out of 130 ZR opportunities in 371 innings, equivalent to an .869 ZR. He’s made 7 plays above average over that time, which is equivalent to saving 5 runs above average. This has helped bring him back from being as bad as a -9 to a pretty close to average -3.
One thing that I’ve noticed with further research into zone rating and in some correspondence I’ve had with Sean Smith and Chris Dial is that Fenway really kills Boston’s LF, and has for as long as ZR has been around(1987). Based on some number crunching we’ve done, it looks like there are about 18 uncatchable balls a year in Fenway that the LF gets penalized for. Therefore, Ramirez’s defensive numbers above have been park-adjusted to not penalize him as much. He was a -32 in raw ZR runs before the adjustment, if you’re curious.
Lastly, if you are wondering how the Yankees survived the losses of Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield, having five of the twenty most valuable position players in the league surely helped.
This is my system for figuring out a player’s value to his team, but it’s far from the only one. Baseball Prospectus’s VORP pegs Jeter as the second-most valuable offensive player in the AL, behind Hafner. Win Shares, which was developed by Bill James as a means of valuing offense and defense, and is tracked at the Hardball Times has Jeter tied with Ramirez for the most in the AL, at 27.
I’m not much into the Win Probability Added stuff. While context does matter, WPA doesn’t do a good job of capturing it in my mind, so I pretty much ignore it. It’s way too team-dependent and timing-dependent for me. I just can’t get behind a statistic that would consider an 8th inning sacrifice fly more valuable than a first inning HR in two games that both end up 1-0. I’m also not a big fan of bringing intangibles into the argument, or of only allowing players from playoff contenders to contend for the MVP. If you’re valuable to your team, you’re valuable to your team. It’s not your fault if the front office didn’t do their job, is it?
So, is Jeter the AL MVP? He certainly has a case for it, although so do others. I think it would fairly be a four man race between Sizemore, Jeter, Mauer, and Santana, but if voters want to consider the team as well, that basically leaves it to Jeter, Mauer, or Santana, any of whom deserve it. There’s still 20 games to go, and plenty of time for someone to separate themselves from the pack. Jeter’s current hitting streak will help get his name more press, and Minnesota’s players may be splitting votes among each other, which helps Jeter as well. I think if Jeter can get to 100 RBI and win the batting title, that may end up putting him over the top. I’ll be pulling for him to do it, even though some of you people out there think I hate him for some reason.
For those wondering about Robinson Cano’s chances at the batting title, you can keep tabs with our new feature on the left under the magic number counter, The Robinson Cano Batting Title Watch. Nothing fancy, just his current average, current plate appearances, and how many plate appearances he’d need to qualify as of the last game played (that increases by 3.1 each game).
Yanks go for the series victory against Baltimore later today, with Randy Johnson(16-10, 4.76) taking on Kris Benson (10-10, 4.66). The magic numbers are shrinking, and the Yanks now have the best winning percentage in the majors. They may back into home field advantage with Detroit’s offense going missing. No, the National League is not the majors, so I don’t want to hear from any Mets fans.
Page 1 of 1 pages: