Friday, September 4, 2009
This Is the Best Yankee Lineup Since…
There's a question that's been popping up a lot recently here, so let's see if we can figure it out. The question, or statement, is usually 'This is the best Yankee team since...', usually ending in 1999 or 1998. While I'd rather wait until the end of the season to try and answer this question correctly, here's a quick and dirty look at what the answer may be. I'm only looking at the lineup right now, and only looking at offense.Full-season pythag or run differential may tell us who the best Yankee lineup was over a full season considering all the contributions of everyone who played, but the more interesting question to me is what's the best concentrated set of talent the Yankees have ever run out on the field. To look at this question, I used my Lahman database to identify the primary position at each position on the field plus DH. Since the OF positions are not always split in the Lahman database prior to 1980, I'm only looking at the period between 1980-2009 for now.
From there, I calculated the wOBA
If we want to look at the real question about most talented Yankee team ever, we shouldn't use a single season's stats, we should probably use some of the prior season data for everyone on the team and do a retro-projection on them to smooth out any fluke seasons, but like I said, this is quick and dirty.
Update: Revised chart with correct park factors now posted.
| Year | wOBA | lgWOBA | r600aa |
| 2009 | .374 | .332 | 228.2 |
| 2005 | .369 | .330 | 212.5 |
| 2007 | .369 | .334 | 189.8 |
| 2003 | .368 | .333 | 189.8 |
| 2002 | .363 | .330 | 176.4 |
| 1986 | .354 | .325 | 160.6 |
| 2004 | .366 | .337 | 157.1 |
| 1998 | .365 | .337 | 154.5 |
| 2006 | .367 | .339 | 151.8 |
| 1983 | .349 | .321 | 150.9 |
| 1999 | .366 | .343 | 122.9 |
| 1985 | .345 | .323 | 121.5 |
| 1988 | .337 | .316 | 116.1 |
| 1994 | .362 | .341 | 110.4 |
| 1980 | .342 | .323 | 101.7 |
| 1984 | .338 | .320 | 99.2 |
| 1997 | .353 | .336 | 87.2 |
| 2001 | .347 | .333 | 74.2 |
| 1989 | .328 | .315 | 73.1 |
| 1993 | .340 | .328 | 63.1 |
| 1981 | .320 | .309 | 62.2 |
| 1982 | .332 | .322 | 50.5 |
| 1996 | .354 | .347 | 35.8 |
| 1987 | .339 | .332 | 34.4 |
| 2008 | .336 | .332 | 25.7 |
| 1991 | .324 | .320 | 22.2 |
| 2000 | .349 | .346 | 16.8 |
| 1995 | .341 | .338 | 12.3 |
| 1992 | .317 | .317 | 2.2 |
| 1990 | .293 | .317 | -132.1 |
wOBA: Yankee wOBA
lgwOBA League average wOBA in this season.
r600aa: Runs above average over 600 PAs (totaled for the starting nine).
Well, that surprised the hell out of me. While the season isn't over yet, the starting nine for the 2009 Yankees rate as the best offensive Yankee lineup relative to their league since 1980. How is that possible? According to wOBA they've gotten an above average performance relative to league from every single player listed as their primary starter. It looks like not even the 1998 Yankees can make that claim thanks to Chad Curtis's below average performance in LF.
The team-by-team breakdown is too big of a table to post, but anyone who wants to look at it can download it in CSV format.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Journal News - Abraham: Cashman arrives in Orlando hoping to fulfill Yankees’ needs
ORLANDO, Fla. - The annual gathering of baseball’s general managers has usually served only as a precursor to the larger winter meetings of all executives that follow a month later.
But when the GMs start to arrive here today, many will have an agenda they will be eager to enact. Notable among them will be Brian Cashman of the Yankees, who has a long list of issues.
So, what are those issues?
1) 3B? - Betemit + Ensberg is my choice here. Joe Crede? Eh. He’s a good fielder, not a good hitter. Overall he’s about average if he’s healthy, but that’s probably not any different than what a Betemit/Ensberg platoon would provide. If the Yankees are willing to part with Hughes or Chamberlain at the front of a package, they may be able to get in on Miguel Cabrera, but I wouldn’t want them to give up either of them.
2) Closer - Please sign Mo. Please.
3) Catcher - Imagine if Posada and Molina both walk? Urgh.
4) Bullpen - Right now the Yankee bullpen looks pretty shaky. There’s not much on the free agent front though. David Riske?
5) 1B? - I have this sinking feeling the Yankees are going to bring back Doug Mientkiewicz, but this is the most obvious area where a potential upgrade could off-set the loss of the last 3B. The only problem is the scarcity of those available upgrades
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
2007 ALDS: Yankee Run Values
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BRAA | DRAA | TRAA |
| R Cano | 16 | .333 | .375 | .800 | 1.175 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| S Duncan | 4 | .500 | .500 | .500 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| A Rodriguez | 17 | .267 | .353 | .467 | .820 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M Cabrera | 16 | .188 | .188 | .375 | .563 | -1 | 1 | 0 |
| B Sardinha | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J Damon | 19 | .278 | .316 | .611 | .927 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| H Matsui | 16 | .182 | .438 | .182 | .620 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| J Giambi | 4 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| D Mientkiewicz | 8 | .000 | .143 | .000 | .143 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| J Posada | 17 | .133 | .235 | .200 | .435 | -2 | 0 | -2 |
| B Abreu | 17 | .267 | .353 | .533 | .886 | 1 | -4 | -3 |
| D Jeter | 17 | .176 | .176 | .176 | .352 | -2 | -1 | -3 |
BRAA: Batting runs above average by linear weights
DRAA: Defensive runs saved above average by linear weights
TRAA: BRAA + DRAA
| Player | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | RSAA |
| A Pettitte | 6.3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 |
| M Rivera | 4.7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 |
| P Hughes | 5.7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1.59 | 1.59 | 2 |
| K Farnsworth | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 |
| M Mussina | 4.7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 1 |
| J Veras | 0.7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| R Villone | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| J Chamberlain | 3.7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4.91 | 4.91 | 0 |
| L Vizcaino | 0.7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13.50 | 13.50 | -1 |
| R Clemens | 2.3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 11.57 | 11.57 | -2 |
| R Ohlendorf | 1.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27.00 | 27.00 | -2 |
| C Wang | 5.7 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 19.06 | 19.06 | -9 |
RSAA: Runs saved above average
| Player | TRAA |
| A Pettitte | 3 |
| M Rivera | 3 |
| P Hughes | 2 |
| R Cano | 1 |
| K Farnsworth | 1 |
| M Mussina | 1 |
| J Veras | 0 |
| S Duncan | 0 |
| A Rodriguez | 0 |
| R Villone | 0 |
| M Cabrera | 0 |
| B Sardinha | 0 |
| J Chamberlain | 0 |
| J Damon | 0 |
| H Matsui | 0 |
| J Giambi | 0 |
| L Vizcaino | -1 |
| D Mientkiewicz | -1 |
| J Posada | -2 |
| R Clemens | -2 |
| R Ohlendorf | -2 |
| B Abreu | -3 |
| D Jeter | -3 |
| C Wang | -9 |
| Total | -13 |
TRAA: TRAA/RSAA
Sunday, October 7, 2007
MLB.com: A-Rod becomes focus of Yanks’ woes
NEW YORK—Up against the wall heading into Game 3 of the American League Division Series, the Yankees are down two games to none as the series moves to New York. Rodriguez has been the centerpiece of a lineup badly in need of a charge.
“He’s been through this before,” Mientkiewicz said. “We just need him to be him, and then let everybody else do our own thing.”
With just eight hits in their first 20 innings of play this postseason, the Yankees have joined Rodriguez with their cold sticks. Unfortunately for A-Rod, his personal playoff demons have not paid any attention to the results of his probable AL Most Valuable Player season.
“Put Alex in the group with everybody else,” Yankees manager Joe Torre said. “I don’t think it’s fair to single him out. We got three hits [in Game 2] and scored, what, four runs in two games? Three of them were home runs. So we certainly need to do a better job of doing what we’ve been doing most of the year.
The entire team needs to get it going at the plate. This is encouraging, small sample size aside:
And although his numbers vs. Westbrook are pretty good too, I decided not to highlight Matsui’s stats since they likely happened when he didn’t totally suck.
Don’t give up on them.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Lohud Yankees Blog - Abraham: Torre announces lineup for Game 1
From the ever vigilant Peter Abraham:
Johnny Damon LF
Derek Jeter SS
Bobby Abreu RF
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Doug Mientkiewicz 1B
Chien-Ming Wang RHP
No surprises really. The Yankees also added Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Veras to the bullpen and subtracted Ron Villone. I guess I need to project them both.
Monday, October 1, 2007
2007 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown - Part One
Well, it took six months to get here, but here we are. The Yankees didn't win the AL East for the first time in 10 seasons, but took advantage of the wild card to get into the tournament. Like most Yankee fans, I was just praying the Yankees would avoid Los Angeles of Anaheim, but I'm reminded of last year when everyone wanted to get the Tigers instead of the Twins, and we saw how well that worked out.The first thing I'd suggest to everyone is to disregard the fact that the Yankees took all six games they played against Cleveland this year. That has no predictive utility as far as what we can expect in this upcoming series.
Today I'm going to look at the position players on both teams to see how they compare on both offense and defense. Regular readers know what this means. It's time for some charts!
First up, the most likely starting lineup for the Indians:
| Starters | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Sizemore,Grady | CF | 2007 | .277 | .390 | .462 | .82 | .916 | 0.07 |
| Proj | .284 | .372 | .490 | .82 | .904 | 0.05 | ||
| Blake,Casey | 3B | 2007 | .270 | .339 | .437 | .65 | .737 | -0.05 |
| Proj | .264 | .333 | .443 | .66 | .738 | -0.05 | ||
| Hafner,Travis | DH | 2007 | .266 | .385 | .451 | .73 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .286 | .400 | .541 | .87 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Martinez,Victor | C | 2007 | .301 | .374 | .505 | .78 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .294 | .369 | .472 | .73 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Garko,Ryan F | 1B | 2007 | .289 | .359 | .483 | .71 | .823 | -0.02 |
| Proj | .276 | .346 | .456 | .65 | .813 | -0.04 | ||
| Peralta,Jhonny | SS | 2007 | .270 | .341 | .430 | .59 | .793 | -0.07 |
| Proj | .272 | .342 | .442 | .61 | .808 | -0.03 | ||
| Lofton,Kenny | LF | 2007 | .296 | .363 | .414 | .60 | .868 | 0.01 |
| Proj | .296 | .353 | .410 | .58 | .853 | -0.02 | ||
| Nixon,Trot | RF | 2007 | .251 | .342 | .336 | .46 | .863 | -0.01 |
| Proj | .257 | .347 | .385 | .52 | .869 | 0.00 | ||
| Cabrera,Asdrubal J | 2B | 2007 | .283 | .354 | .421 | .51 | .847 | 0.06 |
| Proj | .261 | .312 | .378 | .43 | .847 | 0.06 | ||
| Total per game | 2007 | 5.85 | 0.0 | |||||
| Proj | 5.87 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Total per 162 games | 2007 | 947 | -2 | |||||
| Proj | 951 | -6 |
2007
BR/G: Batting runs per game using linear weights
ZR: Actual 2007 zone rating at the listed position
DR/G: Defensive runs saved above average per game
Proj
BR/G: Batting runs per game using linear weights and weighed 2/3 on the player's projection entering 2007 and 1/3 on their actual 2007 stats
ZR: Weighted average ZR at the listed position
DR/G: Defensive runs saved above average per game
One of the mistakes most people make (and one that I am guilty of at times as well) is to focus just on this season when trying to figure out what we can expect projecting forward. To rectify this, I've calculated revised projections on offense and defense for both teams. The projections are just 2/3 of their projections coming into the season and 1/3 of their 2007 actual performance. So after each player, you will see two stat lines. The first is their actual 2007 performance, and the second is their revised projection. For players who spent time in the minors I've included their MLEs(major league equivalencies).
BR/G is an estimate of how many batting runs per game a player will provide from the lineup slot they are slotted in. For this exercise, I did not do any position-adjustments because I just want to compare the relative strengths of the whole lineup.
ZR is the player's zone rating at the position they are listed at. I then calculate their defensive runs saved per game assuming a typical distribution of chances.
So looking at the Indians, as a collective group they've played right around where their projections say they should be. They're an average defensive team for the most part, and a strong lineup that would score 950 runs or so if they could run all their starters out there 162 times.
It all starts at the top with Grady Sizemore. Overall on the season Sizemore was worth about twenty runs more than an average CF on offense and was +11 defensively, so he was three wins better than an average CF, or five wins better than a replacement-level one. Sizemore has issues with left-handed pitching (career OPS of .922 vs righties, .716 vs lefties) but the current Yankee staff is not really able to exploit that. I suppose the Yankees could consider using Ron Villone against him in a key spot or something.
Casey Blake is a decent hitter (career OPS+ of 106). He's versatile enough to play the infield corners or see some spot duty in the OF, but right now he's Cleveland's starting third baseman.
Travis "Pronk" Hafner is a scary hitter who had a down year after three outstanding seasons. Hafner led the American League in OPS+ from 2004-2006. Hafner season line was disappointing for him, but he appears to be heating up as he hit .316/.414/.551 in September. He's another player who has a platoon split, but again the Yankees don't have the personnel to do anything about it.
Victor Martinez was worth 29 runs above the average catcher on offense this season. Only Jorge Posada was better. Martinez also reversed a trend of bad defense. I have him as +4 runs above an average catcher this season.
The Indians' 1, 3, and 4 hitters are a damn good group collectively. I'd put them up with anyone in baseball's right now.
Ryan Garko's a touch above average offensively for a first baseman, and a touch below average defensively.
Jhonny Peralta looked like he was going to be the next great shortstop in his age 23 season, putting up an OPS+ of 139 and being 11 runs above average defensively. He dropped to an OPS+ of 85 at age 24 in addition to losing 14 runs of defensive value. He rebounded a bit this season with an OPS+ of 105 but his defense got worse. Overall, he's an average SS but he's talented enough to be dangerous in a short series.
Kenny Lofton's homecoming to Cleveland hasn't gone all that well, as he's hit .283/.344/.370 after being acquired from Texas earlier in the season. He's been average in LF after playing mainly CF for Texas. His overall season line is still certainly respectable, and he's still a stolen base threat even at age 40. Lofton will probably be platooned with Jason Michaels against Andy Pettitte.
Trot Nixon is no stranger to Yankee fans. He may not get all the starts in RF as the Indians have 24 year old Franklin Gutierrez as well as the aforementioned Michaels and David Dellucci around.
Asdrubal Cabrera appears to have won the second base job from the disappointing Josh Barfield. At just 21 years old he's put up an OPS+ of 107 (in very limited playing time) as well as playing plus defense at all three infield skill positions (again in a very small sample size).
The thing that stands out for me is that are no dead spots in the lineup. Top to bottom, if the Indians start Cabrera at second, Gutierrez in RF and Lofton in LF every player has an OPS+ greater than 100 on the season.
Cleveland's lineup is pretty solid, but they also have a pretty good bench.
| Bench | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Gomez,Chris | 1B | 2007 | .297 | .317 | .374 | .44 | .700 | -0.19 |
| Proj | .286 | .328 | .368 | .46 | .805 | -0.05 | ||
| Shoppach,Kelly B | C | 2007 | .261 | .310 | .472 | .58 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .240 | .307 | .437 | .54 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Barfield,Josh L | 2B | 2007 | .243 | .270 | .324 | .34 | .806 | -0.04 |
| Proj | .259 | .300 | .389 | .47 | .812 | -0.03 | ||
| Gutierrez,Franklin R | RF | 2007 | .266 | .318 | .472 | .58 | .971 | 0.20 |
| Proj | .260 | .316 | .433 | .54 | .971 | 0.20 | ||
| Michaels,Jason | LF | 2007 | .270 | .324 | .397 | .48 | .858 | -0.01 |
| Proj | .267 | .334 | .406 | .52 | .851 | -0.02 | ||
| Dellucci,David | LF | 2007 | .230 | .297 | .382 | .45 | .835 | -0.05 |
| Proj | .244 | .329 | .427 | .55 | .835 | -0.05 |
As I mentioned above, Gutierrez is a name to watch out for, as I could see him taking starts away from Trot Nixon. Other than that I'd expect the starting lineup to remain pretty consistent. Kelly Shoppach is the best backup catcher in the league BTW. He was the seventh most valuable offensive catcher in the AL despite only getting 177 plate appearances. Chris Gomez and Barfield are around as glove men primarily, although Gomez is not an automatic out. Dellucci missed most of the season but appeared in a couple of games last week so he may be back on the roster.
Here's how the Yankees starting nine compare.
| Starters | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Damon,Johnny | LF | 2007 | .270 | .351 | .396 | .68 | .861 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .283 | .358 | .438 | .73 | .870 | 0.01 | ||
| Jeter,Derek | SS | 2007 | .322 | .388 | .452 | .75 | .765 | -0.14 |
| Proj | .322 | .387 | .452 | .76 | .803 | -0.05 | ||
| Abreu,Bobby | RF | 2007 | .283 | .369 | .445 | .72 | .858 | -0.02 |
| Proj | .279 | .382 | .446 | .74 | .863 | -0.01 | ||
| Rodriguez,Alex | 3B | 2007 | .314 | .422 | .645 | 1.04 | .765 | 0.01 |
| Proj | .296 | .397 | .568 | .91 | .762 | 0.00 | ||
| Matsui,Hideki | DH | 2007 | .285 | .367 | .488 | .72 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .287 | .373 | .478 | .72 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Posada,Jorge | C | 2007 | .338 | .426 | .543 | .86 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .285 | .385 | .477 | .72 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Cano,Robinson | 2B | 2007 | .306 | .353 | .488 | .66 | .846 | 0.06 |
| Proj | .307 | .347 | .477 | .64 | .832 | 0.02 | ||
| Cabrera,Melky | CF | 2007 | .273 | .327 | .391 | .49 | .903 | 0.04 |
| Proj | .279 | .333 | .402 | .52 | .893 | 0.02 | ||
| Mientkiewicz,Doug | 1B | 2007 | .277 | .350 | .440 | .53 | .831 | -0.01 |
| Proj | .260 | .330 | .401 | .48 | .871 | 0.04 | ||
| Total per game | 2007 | 6.45 | -0.1 | |||||
| Proj | 6.22 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Total per 162 games | 2007 | 1045 | -11 | |||||
| Proj | 1008 | 7 |
I'd assume this is the lineup of choice based on the last few weeks, and honestly the way Doug Mientkiewicz is hitting now I wouldn't mess with it. As good as Cleveland's lineup is, the Yankees project to be around fifty runs better over a full season.
Johnny Damon is hitting .319/.370/.496 since June 21 (over 55 games). He's also playing very good LF defense recently. If you take out his first four games in LF he has a zone rating of .881 which would be equivalent to being a +6 defender over a full season.
Derek Jeter has been dealing with nagging injuries this year, and it's hurt his offense and his defense. He was still a +22 offensive player this season, but last year he was +48. Jeter had an OPS of .871 pre-All Star Break and .804 after. He ended the year at -20 runs defensively compared to an average AL SS, so he did at least hit enough to compensate for his defensive weakness this year.
Bobby Abreu is the bellwether for my favorite selective endpoint of the season, May 30. From that date on, Abreu hit .309/.396/.520 with 14 HRs and 34 2Bs. When Abreu hits, the Yankees score runs in bunches. In Yankee wins, Abreu hit .298/.374/.470. In Yankee losses, he hit .259/.361/.410. He's also playing passable defense in RF overall. On the season he was -3 runs defensively but over his last 52 games he was +1.
Alex Rodriguez. You know the deal. He's the best player in the American League and will be under an intense microscope from the start. We'll see how it goes.
Hideki Matsui fell off pretty badly after a ridiculous hot streak. From Jul 3 to Aug 25, Matsui hit an amazing .365/.423/.651 with 15 HRs in 48 games. Over the last 25 games he's hit just .196/.312/.359. A hot Matsui can carry the team, but a cold one could bury them. Hopefully the extended break gets his knees healthier. In his career, Matsui has hit .308/.382/.555 as a DH, which is the role I expect him to play in the postseason.
Jorge Posada has hit .241/.358/.388 in the postseason in his career. It'd be nice if he could do better than that this year.
Robinson Cano can be maddeningly streaky. A look at his raw stat line might make it seem like he fell off this year, but there were some encouraging signs of development. Cano drew 34 non-intentional walks this season after drawing a total of 30 in his first two season. His Isolated Power (SLG - AVG) was just about the same as last year. He didn't hit as many line drives as he did in 2006 overall, and that is a at least part of the explanation for the drop in average. Through May 15 he was hitting .234/.276/.312 with 7 BB and 29 Ks in 152 plate appearances. So he was walking in 4.6% of his plate appearances and fanning in 19.1%. From May 16 on he hit .328/.376/.540 with 32 BB and 56 Ks in 517 plate appearances, so he walked in 6.1% of his plate appearances and whiffed in 10.8%. One last thing about Cano. Last year he was worth 21 runs above an average 2B offensively and he was basically average defensively. This year he's been worth 14 runs above average on offense but he was also a +9 defender, so overall he was a touch more valuable in 2007 than 2006.
Melky Cabrera has fallend off dramatically in the second half of the season on offense. He peaked on Aug 13 with a line of .302/.351/.452. Since then he's hit .203/.269/.241. It could be related to fatigue or it could be that Melky was playing over his head and came back down to earth. My guess is it's a combination of both things. He ended the season -12 runs on offense and +6 runs on defense, so he was below average overall. This doesn't include the value of his arm, which may boost him back up close to average.
Doug Mientkiewicz was a signing that most Yankee fans hated. No, Mientkiewicz isn't a great player, but there were very few options available this offseason. After returning from his injury, Mientkiewicz hit .429/.510/.619, which pushed his season line to an OPS+ of 112. He's also put up a zone rating of .900 since then. No, he's not that good, but I'd expect him to be able to play good defense and get on base at a respectable clip. Jason Giambi's bat just never got going so I think Mientkiewicz gets the nod here, and I have a tough time quibbling about it.
One thing the Yankees need to be cognizant of is that Cleveland has two tough lefty relievers in Rafael Perez and Aaron Fultz. Lefties have hit .142/.214/.217 against Perez in his career, and have hit .236/.303/.349 against Fultz in his career. If the Yankees use the lineup above they will limit their vulnerability to the platoon advantage. The Yankees will also have Shelley Duncan looming in the background if they need to pinch-hit for Mientkiewicz against a lefty (although Mientkiewicz has historically hit lefties a bit better than righties). Something I found interesting is that the Yankee offense has overperformed expectations. That's probably easily explained by Rodriguez and Posada blowing away their projections.
Meanwhile, the defense has underperformed expectations slightly this season although it's still probably the best defensive team they've had since the late 90s. They actually project to be an at least average defensive team. Damon in left is a big upgrade on Matsui, Melky in center is a big upgrade on Damon in center, Abreu is an upgrade over Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez 2007 is an upgrade on Alex Rodriguez 2005 and 2006, and Robinson Cano projects to be above average as well, although maybe not as good as he's been in 2007. And the shortstop bangs supermodels.
Speaking of Shelley Duncan, here's the Yankee bench.
| Bench | POS | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/G | ZR | DR/G | |
| Giambi,Jason | DH | 2007 | .236 | .356 | .433 | .59 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .247 | .394 | .488 | .70 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Betemit,Wilson | 3B | 2007 | .229 | .331 | .454 | .59 | .721 | -0.09 |
| Proj | .248 | .326 | .442 | .56 | .721 | -0.09 | ||
| Molina,Jose | C | 2007 | .257 | .267 | .340 | .36 | .000 | 0.00 |
| Proj | .244 | .274 | .353 | .39 | .000 | 0.00 | ||
| Duncan,Shelly S | 1B | 2007 | .265 | .341 | .533 | .78 | 1.000 | 0.22 |
| Proj | .271 | .347 | .542 | .78 | .825 | -0.02 |
The Yankee bench is also strong this season, which is usually not the case. There are three legit power threats on the bench in Jason Giambi, Duncan and Wilson Betemit. Jose Molina's projected OPS of .627 isn't very good, but he probably won't have to play all that much and he's a good defender. I could see Giambi getting a few starts at first base if Mientkiewicz struggles or if he succeeds in a pinch-hitting role.
I didn't include Bronson Sardinha or Alberto Gonzalez in here because it's doubtful they'd be used for anything other than pinch-running. The thing is, if Giambi is not starting who do you pinch run for? Posada? I wouldn't risk losing his bat in any games.
Overall, the straight lineup comparison seems to favor the Yankees on both offense and defense, but the Indians do present some matchup problems for the Yankees with Fultz, Perez and C.C. Sabathia, so keep that in mind. I'll write up the pitchers in a day or two.
Incidentally, as torrid as the Yankees have been in the second half, since August 15th the Indians have been better. Cleveland has gone 31-12 since that date, a .721 winning percentage. The Yankees have gone 27-16, a .628 winning percentage.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Picking the 2007 Postseason Roster
Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs, I can finally talk about the postseason roster. With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster. Here’s a look at the candidates, with the players on the bubble separated out.
Starting Pitchers(4)
Andy Pettitte
Roger Clemens
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Relief Pitchers(5)
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
Kyle Farnsworth
Luis Vizcaino
On the Bubble
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Tyler Clippard
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Sean Henn
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Ian Kennedy
Ross Ohlendorf
Edwar Ramirez
Catchers(2)
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada
Infielders(5)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Doug Mientkiewicz
Alex Rodriguez
Wilson Betemit
On the Bubble
Alberto Gonzalez
Outfielders (5)
Bobby Abreu
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Shelley Duncan
Hideki Matsui
On the Bubble
Bronson Sardinha
Designated Hitters(1)
Jason Giambi
There are 22 players I consider locks to make the roster, four starting pitchers, five relievers, two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders, and one DH. That gives the Yanks three slots to fill. If it were up to me, I’d take two more pitchers and one position player.
The position player seems like an easy choice to me, if choosing between Alberto Gonzalez or Bronson Sardinha I’d take the more valuable defensive player. Either can pinch-run, but Gonzalez gives the Yankees a little more depth in case of multiple injuries to their starting infielders.
The pitching situation is a little less clear-cut. Phil Hughes slots in as a long reliever, but the rest of the choices are mainly short relievers and that’s a concern with a gimpy Roger Clemens and Mike “Box of Chocolates” Mussina taking two starts. Because of this, one of the extra relievers should probably be someone who can pitch multiple innings. Out of the players on the bubble, the best choices for that kind of role in my mind are Kei Igawa or Ron Villone. Neither inspires much confidence, but we have to remember that you don’t have to win every single game in the playoffs, you just have to win 3 or 4 before your opponent does. If Clemens can’t go past the second inning, odds are the game is lost but you don’t want to have to burn out your bullpen either. The off days built into the schedule mitigate that to some degree. The other thing the Yankees should do is break up Pettitte and Wang. Since they’ll be starting on the road, I’d start Pettitte in game one, Clemens in game two, and Wang in game three at home. However, to be safe I think the Yankees should take Igawa. I know he hasn’t been good this year, but he could come into a game in the early innings and pitch 5 or 6 innings and put the Yankees in a position to win the next game. Now all the readers can proceed to tell me I’m insane.
That leaves one other pitcher to take. Ian Kennedy’s hurt so scratch him. Realistically it comes down to taking one of Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Villone, Ross Ohlendorf or Edwar Ramirez.
Britton - had success in the AL East last year and did well in AAA this season. For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to be well-regarded by the organization right now, and his stuff isn’t really that great for a short reliever.
Bruney - You know the deal with this guy. Great fastball, horrendous command.
Veras - See Bruney, although with a slightly better breaking pitch. I swear I have not seen Veras hit the catcher’s target on a single pitch yet this season.
Villone - Chock full of veterany-goodness. Hasn’t been horrible this year, but his control scares the hell out of me and he has a very high likelihood to implode in any given outing.
Ohlendorf - He’s looked pretty good so far in the majors, but it’s only been three innings. He’s got good stuff but his minor league numbers are pretty bad, but he was injured for much of the year and converted from a starter to a reliever so that should be considered.
Ramirez - I was pulling like hell for Edwar to come up the majors and succeed, but he still needs to work on his approach IMO. Until he can consistently get ahead in the count and make optimal use of his killer changeup, I wouldn’t have any faith in him in a tight spot. He does have strikeout ability (29 Ks in 19.3 innings), but he also has giving up HR ability (6 in 19.3 innings). He’s probably pitched himself off the postseason roster at this point.
Not a very inspiring bunch. I’d imagine we’ll get a healthy dose of all of these guys over the last four games of the year to see if one becomes a hot hand. I find Ohlendorf the most intriguing of this group, so he’d probably be my pick.
I’d like to see what other people would do instead of me, so let’s hear it…
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
2007 Yankee Defense at the All Star Break
Wrapping up my All Star Break review of the Yankees so far, here's how their defense rates by zone rating. If you want to read a good explanation about zone rating, you should read this article by Chris Dial, but I am going to run through an example as well, to try and clarify exactly what the numbers that will follow mean.I could pick on Derek Jeter, but I'm not going to go there. Instead I'm going to look at the brightest spot on the Yankee defense so far, Robinson Cano. We all know Cano's been a disappointment on offense, but let's look at his defense.
To help clarify the numbers I'm about to run through, here's the Stats Inc. Zone Rating grid, with the 2B area of responsiblity highlighted.
Any ball hit in that highlighted area that is converted into an out at least 50% of the time is considered a fieldable chance for a second baseman. This is based on observation by Stats Inc. scorers, but there are three people scoring these at every game and they score them independently to help cut down on subjectivity.
When a fielder has a ball hit into their zone of responsiblity, they are given a fieldable chance, which is the denominator in ZR. When they convert that into an out, it's considered a play made. When a fielder makes a play that is not his defined zone, it gets added to his chances and plays made so they get credit for it. The question is if they get enough credit for doing so, which is one limitation of zone rating. Another limitation is the zones of responsiblity are fixed, and do not account for positioning. This is a limitation when trying to assess a player's actual talent, but as far as their value in any given time, I don't think it's much of one. If a player is not put into position to make more plays than he is, that means they are not as valuable to their team as they should be, regardless of who is responsible for the positioning.
ZR is expressed as a three digit decimal from 0 to 1, and it's just plays made divided by fieldable chances. So if a player has 10 fieldable chances hit into his defined zone and converts 8 of them into outs, his ZR is .800. Plays are either made or not made in ZR. If a player makes an error, it's no worse than if their range never let them get to the ball in the first place.
So let's get back to Cano. Cano has played 84 games this season, and 747 defensive innings at second base. He has seen 274 fieldable chances, and has a ZR of .880. So we multiply his fieldable chances by .880 to get his plays made, which is 241.
The next thing we do is multiply the chances that Cano has had times the average ZR, to get an average plays made. This assumes that the types of chances a player faces over the course of a period are the same, and it's not necessarily true. Players could have stretches where they face easier chances or more difficult chances, which is why you will see players' defensive numbers fluctuate from season. Again, I consider this a limitation when trying to assess a player's ability, but not their value. This is the type of thing that should even out over time, which makes multi-year zone rating a decent gauge of a player's defensive talent.
In the American League, the average 2B has a ZR of .831. I separate the leagues because I've noticed systemic differences in the infields, and I assume it's at least partly due to pitchers "hitting." So, using the .831 avg ZR times Cano's 274 chances, we get an average plays made of 228. We subtract this from Cano's actual plays made to get a difference. 241 - 228 = 13, so Cano has converted 13 more plays into outs than average. This difference is then multiplied by the average run value of a play at that position, which was calculated by Dial and is based on the linear weights values of the single or XBH that the play would turn into if it is not made, as well as the marginal value of the out that was not recorded.
Here are the run values for the average plays at each position.
POS RV
1B: .798
2B: .754
3B: .800
CF: .842
LF: .831
RF: .843
SS: .753
For 2B, the average play is worth .754 runs, so we multiply that by Cano's +13 plays made and get a runs saved above average of 10. To calculate this over a full season, you just divide the runs saved by the innings played and multiply by 1440 innings.
Credit for this methodology goes to Chris Dial and his article Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Zone Rating and to Chone Smith and his article Tweaking Zone Rating. Without them breaking zone rating down this clearly for me I never would have been able to understand it.
The same basic idea is used for figuring out all players except pitchers and catchers, and here are the numbers for the Yanks.
| Player | TM | LG | Pos | G | GS | INN | PO | A | E | DP | Ch | PM | ZR | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 84 | 84 | 747 | 178 | 271 | 6 | 78 | 274 | 241 | .880 | .831 | 228 | 13 | 10 | 19 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 83 | 83 | 724 | 63 | 149 | 5 | 15 | 207 | 168 | .812 | .762 | 158 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | CF | 59 | 48 | 445 | 154 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 152 | .916 | .889 | 148 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | LF | 18 | 16 | 142 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 31 | .912 | .872 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 3B | 7 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | .900 | .762 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 45 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | SS | 8 | 2 | 36.2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 16 | .889 | .824 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 35 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1.000 | .859 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 48 |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 | .859 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Giambi, Jason | NYY | AL | 1B | 2 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | .842 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | .762 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| Posada, Jorge | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 0 | 4.1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nieves, Wil | NYY | AL | 1B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .842 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .762 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | CF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .889 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basak, Chris | NYY | AL | SS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .824 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thompson, Kevin | NYY | AL | LF | 4 | 1 | 13.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | .833 | .872 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -21 |
| Phillips, Andy | NYY | AL | 1B | 13 | 10 | 90.1 | 85 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 16 | 13 | .813 | .842 | 13 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | .750 | .831 | 7 | -1 | 0 | -41 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | LF | 3 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .667 | .872 | 3 | -1 | -1 | -57 |
| Phelps, Josh | NYY | AL | 1B | 29 | 20 | 162.2 | 167 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 22 | .815 | .842 | 23 | -1 | -1 | -5 |
| Abreu, Bobby | NYY | AL | RF | 84 | 81 | 720 | 156 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 156 | .852 | .859 | 157 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .333 | .872 | 3 | -2 | -1 | -215 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | CF | 41 | 38 | 318 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 104 | .874 | .889 | 106 | -2 | -1 | -7 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | NYY | AL | 1B | 48 | 36 | 330.1 | 353 | 14 | 2 | 46 | 59 | 47 | .797 | .842 | 50 | -3 | -2 | -9 |
| Cairo, Miguel | NYY | AL | 1B | 21 | 17 | 155.1 | 161 | 9 | 4 | 16 | 42 | 32 | .762 | .842 | 35 | -3 | -3 | -25 |
| Matsui, Hideki | NYY | AL | LF | 68 | 67 | 586.1 | 131 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 127 | .836 | .872 | 132 | -5 | -5 | -11 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 84 | 83 | 726.1 | 128 | 246 | 13 | 69 | 295 | 227 | .769 | .824 | 243 | -16 | -12 | -24 |
| Total | 678 | 601 | 5345.2 | 1765 | 748 | 42 | 261 | 1633 | 1370 | .839 | .840 | 1371 | -1 | -1 | -2 |
Legend
INN - Innings
PO - Putouts
A - Assists
E - Errors
DP - Double plays
Ch - Fieldable chances
PM - Plays made
ZR - Zone Rating
AvgZR - Average ZR
AvgPM - Average PM
Diff - PM minus AvgPM
RS - Runs saved
RS/162 - Runs saved pro-rated to 162 games
So yeah, Cano's been great. Also great, Alex Rodriguez, who has rebounded from two sub-par years at third after a solid 2004 defensively. Melky's flashing a plus glove in LF and CF and this doesn't even include his arm.
The rest of the numbers seem to match my observations pretty well, although I'd have pegged Abreu to be a little worse and Matsui to be a bit better. This is part of the reason I've grown fond of zone rating. It's freely available, it's easy to convert to runs, and for the most part the players I think are good and bad defenders show up as such in ZR.
These numbers are not meant to be an absolute assessment of either a players' defensive ability or value. First of all, we're dealing with a small sample size. The difference between Jeter being average or horrible is about one play a week. Second of all, as I've listed above, there are limitations in zone rating which need to be acknowledged and understood. Over at Bronx Banter the other day there was a heated discussion about defensive metrics and their pros and cons. The way I described it to someone over there is this. Let's say you have a group of hitters, and the only thing you know about him is their batting averages. Would you prefer to use your visual observations of the players' abilities and whether they have good at bats, or would you rather use batting average to determine their skill at least partially, even acknowledging that batting average has limitations? That's kind of where I think defensive metrics should fall into place.
For catchers, I use a combination of passed balls and stolen base percentage. It's not a great method because pitchers deserve some of the blame for stolen bases, but again, if we think of it in terms of value instead of ability it's better than nothing.
| NAME | GP | GS | INN | TC | PO | A | E | DP | FPCT | PB | SB | CS | CS% | CERA | RS | RS/150 |
| Jorge Posada, NYY | 77 | 68 | 621 | 427 | 394 | 30 | 3 | 2 | .993 | 3 | 61 | 19 | 0.24 | 4.42 | -3 | -7 |
| Wil Nieves, NYY | 21 | 18 | 142 | 105 | 99 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .990 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.23 | 4.12 | -1 | -5 |
| Josh Phelps, NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Posada's defense has typically been average or slightly below, but he was great last year. He's back below average this year, but he's hitting more than well enough to compensate. Wil Nieves has a wonderful smile, which is apparently all he needs to have to be the Yankees' backup catcher.
With the pitching, offense and defense all assessed it's time to see where everyone on the Yankees ranks in terms of overall value, so here you go.
| Last | BR | DR | PR | TR |
| Rodriguez | 33 | 8 | 42 | |
| Wang | 18 | 18 | ||
| Posada | 19 | -3 | 16 | |
| Bruney | 8 | 8 | ||
| Cano | -2 | 10 | 8 | |
| Myers | 7 | 7 | ||
| Clemens | 6 | 6 | ||
| Matsui | 8 | -5 | 4 | |
| Rivera | 3 | 3 | ||
| Villone | 3 | 3 | ||
| Jeter | 15 | -12 | 2 | |
| Pettitte | 2 | 2 | ||
| Hughes | 2 | 2 | ||
| Britton | 2 | 2 | ||
| Giambi | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Proctor | 1 | 1 | ||
| Cabrera | -5 | 5 | 1 | |
| Mussina | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ramirez | 0 | 0 | ||
| Phillips | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Basak | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rasner | -1 | -1 | ||
| Thompson | -1 | 0 | -1 | |
| Pavano | -1 | -1 | ||
| Henn | -1 | -1 | ||
| Farnsworth | -1 | -1 | ||
| Bean | -2 | -2 | ||
| Wright | -3 | -3 | ||
| Vizcaino | -3 | -3 | ||
| Desalvo | -3 | -3 | ||
| Phelps | -3 | -1 | -4 | |
| Clippard | -4 | -4 | ||
| Karstens | -5 | -5 | ||
| Damon | -4 | -3 | -6 | |
| Cairo | -5 | -2 | -7 | |
| Abreu | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Nieves | -7 | -1 | -8 | |
| Mientkiewicz | -6 | -2 | -8 | |
| Igawa | -13 | -13 | ||
| Total | 38 | -6 | 15 | 47 |
BR = Batting runs
DR = Defensive runs
PR = Pitching runs
TR = Total runs
I'd take Bruney and Myers's high ranking with a big grain of salt. It may be better to use a linear weights type formula for relievers' value to the team since ERA or RA can hide their performances with inherited runners.
I was surprised to see that Cano's defense makes him such a plus contributor, but I guess that's the case at least by this methodology. If you want to get angry, you can figure out how much the "contributions" of Abreu, Mientkiewicz and Igawa have cost the team this year.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Yankee Offense at the All Star Break
I'm going to use the All Star Break to explain a little bit about the way I rank players' offensive values. As most regular readers know, I'm a big fan of linear weights.The concept for linear weights was introducted by Pete Palmer in his ground-breaking book, The Hidden Game of Baseball. In a nutshell, linear weights assigns a marginal value to just about every event that can happen on the baseball field, both good and bad. You can incorporate batting, baserunning, defense, etc., to really look at the overall contribution that a player is providing to his team.
Instead of getting too heavy into the mechanism of LWTS, I'd just point anyone that is interested in the guts behind it to this link. Today I'm just going to focus on the offensive portion of the Yankees' linear weights.
The formula I use was refined by Tango Tiger and uses the following weights:
Batting Runs(BR) = (.47 x H) + (.38 x 2B) + (.55 x 3B) + (.93 x HR) + (.33 x (BB + HBP)) + .22 x SB + (-.38 x CS) + (-.1 x (AB - H))
The one change I make is I add GDP into the outs factor (AB - H). You could also add reaching on errors although I tend to ignore that out of simplicity.
Anyway, unless a player is really bad, they will have a positive value for BR, because any positive contribution creates some kind of run value. The only Yankee with a negative BR is Wil Nieves, and he's only at -1.
Once you have a players BR, you can do a couple of things. The first thing is to compare them to the average batter, regardless of position. This is useful for just figuring out the net value of a player, and for when you want to look at moving players around the different positions, as well as for direct comparisons.
The other thing that you can do, is position-adjust the players. As should be fairly obvious to most baseball fans, the average shortstop does not hit as well as the average first baseman (unless it's the Yankees), so offense from the shortstop position is harder to find, and therefore more valuable. So what I do is calculate the BR at every defensive position. I then divide BR by plate appearances, and I subtract the average BR/PA from a player's BR/PA, and then multiply by the number of plate appearances that the player has had. This tells you how much better a player has been compared to an average player over the same playing time.
Let's run through an example with Derek Jeter. Jeter's raw BR this season so far is 60. Divided by his plate appearances, he creates .152 BR/PA. The average AL SS has created 596 BR this eason, over 5194 PA, a BR/PA of .115. So Jeter's position-adjusted batting runs above average would be (.152-.115) x his PA, which comes out to about 15 runs above the average AL SS this year. That makes him the third most valuable offensive Yankee this season, behind Alex Rodriguez (the most valuable offensive player in the league regardless of position by linear weights), and Jorge Posada.
So, here are the Yankees' offensive players sorted by most valuable in position-adjusted batting runs.
| Last | pBRaa | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Rodriguez | 33 | 85 | 380 | 319 | 79 | 101 | 21 | 0 | 30 | 86 | 47 | 71 | .317 | .413 | .665 |
| Posada | 19 | 82 | 331 | 291 | 46 | 95 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 61 | .327 | .399 | .505 |
| Jeter | 15 | 85 | 395 | 348 | 57 | 117 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 35 | 47 | .336 | .408 | .463 |
| Matsui | 8 | 73 | 316 | 274 | 46 | 75 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 53 | 36 | 38 | .274 | .358 | .464 |
| Giambi | 1 | 45 | 179 | 149 | 19 | 39 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 25 | 35 | .262 | .380 | .436 |
| Phillips | 0 | 15 | 43 | 38 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | .316 | .381 | .474 |
| Basak | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Thompson | -1 | 11 | 17 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | .200 | .294 | .333 |
| Cano | -2 | 85 | 350 | 328 | 40 | 90 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 40 | 15 | 52 | .274 | .314 | .427 |
| Phelps | -3 | 36 | 88 | 80 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 19 | .263 | .330 | .363 |
| Damon | -4 | 76 | 313 | 273 | 44 | 67 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 38 | 42 | .245 | .339 | .344 |
| Cabrera | -5 | 76 | 299 | 265 | 31 | 73 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 22 | 33 | .276 | .331 | .385 |
| Cairo | -5 | 44 | 111 | 99 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 16 | .263 | .308 | .323 |
| Mientkiewicz | -6 | 50 | 141 | 124 | 17 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 16 | .226 | .292 | .379 |
| Abreu | -6 | 85 | 375 | 322 | 59 | 85 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 44 | 65 | .264 | .352 | .373 |
| Nieves | -7 | 22 | 53 | 50 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | .120 | .154 | .120 |
pBRaa = position-adjusted batting runs above average
Some more numbers that you may or may not find interesting:
| Last | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | P/PA | BA/BIP | LD% | GB% | HR/F | BA/RISP | BR | BRaa | pBR/150 |
| Rodriguez | 9 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 3.8 | .333 | 18.2% | 41.5% | 29.4% | .303 | 81 | 33 | 57 |
| Posada | 3 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3.8 | .395 | 22.7% | 42.1% | 11.0% | .274 | 55 | 14 | 37 |
| Jeter | 8 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 3.6 | .380 | 20.8% | 55.7% | 7.1% | .427 | 60 | 10 | 24 |
| Matsui | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4.1 | .290 | 15.8% | 48.3% | 12.8% | .268 | 45 | 6 | 17 |
| Giambi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.4 | .302 | 19.1% | 28.7% | 11.7% | .318 | 26 | 3 | 5 |
| Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | .355 | 21.9% | 43.8% | 9.1% | .500 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Basak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | N/A | 0 | 0 | -147 |
| Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 | .375 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% | .500 | 2 | -1 | -26 |
| Cano | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | .313 | 15.2% | 53.3% | 6.9% | .214 | 41 | -3 | -4 |
| Phelps | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3.9 | .322 | 21.3% | 36.1% | 7.7% | .280 | 9 | -2 | -24 |
| Damon | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 4.4 | .276 | 17.3% | 51.9% | 7.0% | .238 | 36 | -3 | -8 |
| Cabrera | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 3.7 | .308 | 19.7% | 55.7% | 7.1% | .234 | 33 | -4 | -10 |
| Cairo | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3.7 | .317 | 13.6% | 42.0% | 0.0% | .303 | 11 | -3 | -29 |
| Mientkiewicz | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | .233 | 23.9% | 36.7% | 9.3% | .200 | 14 | -4 | -28 |
| Abreu | 3 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 4.2 | .325 | 21.5% | 45.4% | 5.8% | .239 | 45 | -2 | -11 |
| Nieves | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | .133 | 13.3% | 53.3% | 0.0% | .214 | -1 | -8 | -83 |
BR is the raw batting run total as I mentioned before, BRaa is batting runs above the average player without any position-adjustments, and pBR/150 is position-adjusted batting runs per 150 games. That really hammers home how bad Wil Nieves has been to this point. A full season of Wil Nievers would be eight wins worse than average. EIGHT WINS! That means that as as good as Alex Rodriguez has been to this point, he still wouldn't neutralize how bad Wil Nieves would be as a full-time starter. A-Rod plus Nieves would end up as 26 runs below average. Pray for Jorge's continued health.
LD% and GB% are just some batted ball numbers. Line drives are the most likely type of balls to be hits, so the higher the LD%, the better the hitter typically. BABIP is the player's batting average on balls in play, calculated the same way as it is calculated for pitchers. Hitters do exhibit repeatable skill here to a certain extent, but an excessively high BABIP typically will correct itself at least partially.
So what do these numbers mean?
As I mentioned earlier, Alex Rodriguez has been the most valuable player in the league. He's already been as valuable offensively as he was all of last year, and there are still 77 games to go. An amazing season for an amazing player who is finally getting the respect he deserves by the mouth-breathing contingent of Yankee fandom.
Jorge Posada is also having his strongest season in years. He's never hit higher than .287 but is on pace to beat that. I am worried about his workload and his luck on balls in play catching up to him in the second half, but there are plenty of people underperforming who should pick up some of the slack.
Derek Jeter continues to shine offensively. Only Carlos Guillen has been more productive as a SS in the AL.
Posada and Jeter have a very high BABIP, although in Jeter's case his speed likely helps. Posada is a very probable candidate to fall off in the second half, at least a little.
Hideki Matsui's recent hot streak has pushed him from slightly above average to +8. Unless Jason Giambi comes back, Matsui is probably the second best power threat in the Yankee lineup, so they need him to continue his surge badly.
Jason Giambi was underperforming expectations, but despite the media's claims about him being out helping the Yankees be more flexible, if he can come back he makes the team better.
Andy Phillips is making the most of his second chance in pinstripes. Whether it's just the fact that he has 43 plate appearances, or if it's the result of adjustments he's made due to his struggles last year, he's filled what's been a giant hole of suck so far this year. I'm not willing to bet that it's going to last, we have a much larger sample size that shows he was overmatched in the bigs, but at the very least he's an upgrade on Miguel Cairo.
Chris Basak and Kevin Thompson haven't played much. Thompson seems like an ideal fourth OF, so if Melky becomes entrenched in center he may end up getting some more playing time going forward.
Robinson Cano's been a big disappointment offensively. Some falloff from .342 was certainly expected, but not this much of one. He's walking a touch more this season, but he's also striking out a lot more. Until he gets a better approach at the plate, expect him to be consistently inconsistent.
Josh Phelps is gone. He didn't get a fair chance to play regularly, so it's tough to know if he wasn't very good or if the erratic playing time hurt him.
Johnny Damon has stunk while batting leadoff, so he gets more chances to stink than anyone else on the team when he's in the lineup. It doesn't look like him going on the DL is a consideration at this point. If he can play some LF going forward he can rest Matsui and perhaps contribute defensively, but the contract he signed last season is starting to look like a disaster.
Melky's seasonal output has been disappointing, but he's been hitting well since May 1. Ignore the bleating that his early struggles were due to not getting regular playing time in April, he played in 21 of 24 games that month.
Miguel Cairo has been brutal offensively, which isn't a surprise. The problem is he's played far more than he should be, primarily at a position where his lack of offense is even more glaring. Add in the fact that his calling card of good defense no longer even seems to be a factor, and he's hurting the team on both sides of the ball. I personally like Miggy for some reason that I really can't understand, but the less he plays going forward the better. I don't know that Basak would be a better option than him as the backup infielder, but it may be worth considering.
Doug Mientkiewicz has hit like garbage. His supposedly great defense at first wasn't reflected in zone rating to this point, although ZR doesn't capture all the elements of first base defense . I wish him a healthy recovery from his multitude of injuries, but I'd prefer he doesn't get back before November. I'd really prefer to see Phillips get first base for the rest of the season just to see once and for all what he's got.
Bobby Abreu has been the biggest problem on the team relative to his expectations. Unless he hits going forward, the Yankees aren't going anywhere. Meanwhile, Gary Sheffield has been tearing it up in Detroit. Brian Cashman made the right move on paper, but it didn't play out on the field. Sheffield's +18 pBRaa, so he's been 24 runs better than Abreu offensively, but he's primarily DHing now.
Wil Nieves has pulled off the amazing feat of being the least valuable offensive player on the team despite only getting 53 plate appearances. He seems like a nice guy, but the sooner the Yankees can replace him with anyone they'll be better. In praise of Nieves, he's hitting much better with runners in scoring position at a lofty .214.
Overall as a team the Yankees are +38 pBRaa. Take out Alex Rodriguez, and they're just +5. Unless Cano, Abreu and Damon play better going forward, they're not going anywhere.
Sunday, July 1, 2007
Ten Reasons to Keep Watching the 2007 Yankees
1) Johnny Damon’s exciting pursuit to stay off the disabled list even though he can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag and can’t play defense.
2) Derek Jeter’s quest to allow more runs on defense than he provides on offense.
3) The drive to get the first pick in the 2008 amateur draft.
4) Alex Rodriguez’s final half season in a Yankee uniform.
5) The revolving number three hitter.
6) Doug Mientkiewicz will be back soon.
7) Every day there’s a chance to see a no-hitter live.
8) Roger Clemens ending his first ballot Hall of Famer career with a whimper.
9) Mike Mussina and his 86 mph fastball.
10) Because you’re a true Yankee fan, and you should take the good with the bad.
Thursday, June 7, 2007
Miguel Cairo vs. Josh Phelps
Doug Mientkiewicz’s injuries have turned an already bad first base situation for the Yankees into an even worse one. With no call on the horizon yet to Andy Phillips or Shelley Duncan, the Yankees tried Josh Phelps for two games and then have started Miguel Cairo for the last two games.
Phelps struggled defensively in the team’s 6-4 loss at Chicago making a key error in the second inning which helped the White Sox score three runs, and that then caused the unpopular move of starting Cairo at first the last two nights. Cairo’s gone 4 for 8 over the last two games and converted all six fieldable chances he’s seen into outs, which indicates that he may be the starting 1B for now.
So how bad is this?
Mientkiewicz is going to be out from 6-8 weeks, which I’ll say is 60 games. 60 games will end up being roughly 250 plate appearances. Using linear weights and their 2007 projections, here’s how many batting runs above average we’d expect Cairo and Phelps to create over 250 PA.
Cairo: (.226/.277/.320) BR: -11
Phelps: (.266/.324/.461) BR: 1
Ouch. Offensively, there’s a 12 run projected difference between the two.
That seems like a clear no-brainer, but it’s not that simple. We have to of course look at defense too.
Cairo’s only played 154 innings at first in his career, but he has an outstanding ZR of .944. That’s good, but the sample size is way too small.
Phelps has seen more action at first, but even his career 370 innings is too small to make any definitive statement about. His ZR is .770.
Those 60 games are the same as around 540 defensive innings. I looked through my historical zone rating database at all first basemen who played at least 540 innings in a season, and looked at the spread between the best and worst defenders pro-rated over 540 innings.
The best stretch I found over a pro-rated 540 innings were Jeff King (with a ZR of .940) in 1996 and Todd Zeile(with a ZR of .927) in 2000. Both saved around 7 runs above average. The two worst stretches were Mike Piazza in 2004 (with a ZR of .740) and Mo Vaughn in 1997 (with a ZR of .719) both “worth” nine runs below average. There’s some selection bias in the lower end I’d imagine, because if someone was worse than this they wouldn’t get enough playing time to show it.
So the spread between the worst possible defender and best possible defender at first over 60 games is about 16 runs at most. So even if Cairo is as good as any first baseman ever, and Phelps is as bad as any first baseman ever, they still end up with Cairo only holding a slight edge overall. Do keep in mind that this is only looking at fieldable chances converted into outs. It doesn’t include a first baseman’s scooping ability or their range in catching foul popups.
Over 540 innings, the average 1B should see 105 chances or so. If we use the career ZR of Cairo and Phelps at first base, the difference between the two over those chances would be that Cairo would convert 99 of 105 chances, Phelps would convert 81 of them, a difference of 18 plays, roughly equal to 14 runs.
The problem is, we can’t assume that either Cairo’s .944 ZR or Phelps’s .770 career ZR are what their true talent is. In my database, there are only 47 seasons where a first baseman had a ZR of .900 or higher over at least 540 innings.
If we regress Cairo to average, which I think is reasonable, his ZR of .846. This year, Phelps’s ZR is .843, but from what I’ve seen, his 2007 ZR doesn’t really capture his poor defensive ability. I’ll split the difference, and say he’s probably around a .807 defender. This would mean that the difference between Phelps and Cairo would be about 4 plays, or 3 runs over 540 innings.
So, offense + defense, Phelps would be worth +1 offensive run, and -3 defensive runs. Cairo would be worth -11 offensive runs, and 0 defensive runs. That makes Phelps about nine runs, or one win better.
If Cairo is in fact a better than average defender, which I do think is true, then the difference decreases. What I would probably do is play Cairo behind Chien-Ming Wang (2.72 G/F ratio) and Andy Pettitte(1.64 G/F ratio). They should prevent runs at a better rate than the other Yankee starters and would benefit more from the better defender at first.
Speaking of Wang, he was great last night in pitching the Yankees’ first complete game of the season. Peter Abraham noted this morning that Wang is 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA over his last five starts.
Mike Mussina will have a chance to give the Yanks a rare series victory today against former Yankee Jose Contreras. Moose has been a disappointment so far, but I’m holding out hope that he’s still building up arm strength and will be better going forward.
Friday, June 1, 2007
What Happened? (The Sordid Tale of the 2007 Yankees through May 31)
If you're a Yankee fan, you have to be wondering what happened this year. How could a team that projected to be one of the top two or three teams in baseball be 13.5 games out of first place and 7 games under .500 after a third of the season?To try and answer that, I went through and compared the pre-season cumulative projections for everyone with how they've done to this point.
First up, the offense. All numbers expressed here are using linear weights, pro-rated to the number of plate appearances the player has had to this point.
| Last | PA | Proj | Act | Diff |
| Posada | 177 | 4 | 12 | 8 |
| Rodriguez | 219 | 12 | 18 | 5 |
| Jeter | 226 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Thompson | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phelps | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cairo | 19 | -1 | -2 | -1 |
| Matsui | 153 | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| Mientkiewicz | 133 | -1 | -3 | -3 |
| Nieves | 31 | -1 | -5 | -3 |
| Damon | 175 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| Giambi | 170 | 9 | 4 | -5 |
| Cabrera | 147 | 2 | -7 | -9 |
| Cano | 197 | 5 | -7 | -12 |
| Abreu | 223 | 15 | -9 | -24 |
| Total | 60 | 12 | -48 |
You probably didn't need a chart to tell you that Robinson Cano and Bobby Abreu have been a big part of the Yankees' underperformance to this point. You can also add Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Melky Cabrera to the list of underperformers. I thought Jeter's offensive performance should reflect better this year, but his bad SB% knocks him down some in linear weights, and the projections probably reflect a higher offensive environment which understates how good he's been this year. Either way, he's far from a problem. Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez have been the only overperformers to this point. The offense has been the biggest problem. With Jason Giambi looking like he may miss a month or more, this could continue to be an issue.
The next set of numbers is how everyone has played on defense compared to their pre-season projections, which I did using a weighted average of the previous four years with an age and regression factor.
| Player | Pos | INN | Ch | ZR | Proj ZR | PM | Proj PM | Diff | RV |
| Jeter | SS | 421.0 | 173 | .763 | .821 | 132 | 142 | -10 | -8 |
| Mientkiewicz | 1B | 318.0 | 55 | .818 | .887 | 45 | 49 | -4 | -3 |
| Matsui | LF | 284.0 | 74 | .797 | .832 | 59 | 62 | -3 | -2 |
| Abreu | RF | 422.0 | 117 | .838 | .866 | 98 | 101 | -3 | -3 |
| Damon | CF | 290.0 | 108 | .880 | .886 | 95 | 96 | -1 | -1 |
| Cairo | SS | 20.0 | 14 | .857 | .833 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera | RF | 18.0 | 3 | 1.000 | .814 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Phelps | 1B | 108.0 | 18 | .889 | .727 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 2 |
| Cabrera | LF | 134.0 | 32 | .938 | .814 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 3 |
| Cano | 2B | 424.0 | 150 | .867 | .823 | 130 | 123 | 7 | 5 |
| Rodriguez | 3B | 438.0 | 131 | .802 | .749 | 105 | 98 | 7 | 6 |
| Cabrera | CF | 150.0 | 64 | .938 | .814 | 60 | 52 | 8 | 7 |
| 785 | 776 | 9 | 8 |
Yes, the Yankee defense is better than it was projected to be. Shocking, I know. A lot of this is mainly due to Melky's emergence this year in LF and CF, compared to last year, but Cano and Rodriguez have also been better than expected. Conversely, Jeter and Doug Mientkiewicz have been worse than projected to this point, although in Mientkiewicz's case I think we're seeing some of the limitations of using ZR to assess 1B defense since it doesn't capture their ability to scoop throws or catch foul popups, both things that Mientkiewicz does very well. Hideki Matsui and Abreu have been worse than expected, but not outlandishly so. I'd expect Jeter to get a little better. I don't see any improvement coming from Abreu or Matsui. Damon should end up around average, especially if the increased time he's looking at as a DH heals his legs up a bit. I think the defense is right around where it'll end up at, it shouldn't get any better or any worse.
Lastly, the much-maligned pitching staff.
| Player | Rsaa | Proj Rsaa | Diff |
| Bean | -2.4 | 0.0 | -2.4 |
| Britton | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| Bruney | 8.2 | -0.9 | 9.1 |
| Clippard | 1.3 | -0.8 | 2.1 |
| Desalvo | -1.5 | -8.6 | 7.1 |
| Farnsworth | -1.2 | 0.9 | -2.1 |
| Henn | -1.8 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| Hughes | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Igawa | -10.7 | -0.7 | -10.0 |
| Karstens | -4.7 | -0.3 | -4.4 |
| Mussina | -4.2 | 1.1 | -5.3 |
| Myers | 4.2 | 0.3 | 3.9 |
| Pavano | -1.0 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| Pettitte | 13.2 | 2.2 | 11.0 |
| Proctor | 2.5 | -0.1 | 2.5 |
| Rasner | -0.9 | -0.9 | 0.0 |
| Rivera | -2.1 | 3.3 | -5.4 |
| Villone | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 |
| Vizcaino | -7.2 | 0.3 | -7.5 |
| Wang | 3.5 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| Wright | -2.7 | -1.1 | -1.6 |
| Total | -4.3 | -5.3 | 1.0 |
Yeah, the Yankee pitching has been about as good as it was projected to be overall, but it's spread out among the top performers (Pettitte/Bruney) and the bottom performers (Igawa/Vizcaino). In theory, a healthier Mussina, a better Rivera, and a Clemens return should make the pitching improve over the remainder of the season, and off-set regression from Pettitte and Bruney.
| W | L | RS | RA | |
| Actual Record | 22 | 29 | 268 | 244 |
| Pythag Record | 28 | 23 | 268 | 244 |
| Projected Record | 33 | 17 | 354 | 259 |
The Yankees are 22-29. Their run differential projects to a record of 28-23. I don't like to call that difference solely luck. A lot of it can be tied to the bullpen, where Rivera being five runs worse than projected has probably cost them 3 wins. Add in Vizcaino's -7 in later innings, that's probably been worth another win or two. The Yankees are 2-10 in one run games, which should not be expected to continue either. If the Yankees had played to their projections to this point, they'd have a pythagorean record of 33-17. How that would translate to their actual win total, I have no idea, but they'd probably be at least .500 or so, and things would not look nearly so bleak.
For another take on the Yankees and their postseason odds, you may want to check out this post from the Yankees Blog Almost Perfect. Good stuff there.
Update: Foot Injury Likely Shelves Giambi for Year. It's George King, so take it with a grain of salt, but if this is true it makes things that much harder. Hopefully the Yankees resist the urge to take on another bad contract to fix this problem.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
In Praise of Pettitte
In what was probably the Yankees’ most important game of the season, Andy Pettitte came up huge. Pettitte pitched a strong game, leading the Yankees to an 8-3 victory. Pettitte went seven innings, and despite allowing nine hits, held Boston to one run. Kyle Farnsworth was lousy, but after a leadoff double in the ninth, which was really just a grounder that got past Doug Mientkiewicz, Mariano Rivera looked like Mariano Rivera, as he came back to fan the side and leave Wily Mo Pena stranded at second. Pettitte’s now fifth in the AL in ERA, and he’s pitched at least seven innings in five of his 10 starts this year. His ERA is better than his peripherals to this point, but if he pitches to his current peripherals for the rest of the season, using my handy-dandy ERA and FIP calculator, if he pitches another 140 innings to his FIP he’ll end the year at an ERA of 3.40. If you take out his first start of the season, where he was working his way back from a spring training injury and was not sharp, his ERA on the season is 2.54, and if he pitches to those peripherals for the rest of the year, he’ll end the season with an ERA of around 3.35. He’ll also be worth every penny of his contract.
Curt Schilling looked awful. He was topping out at 89 mph, and the Yankees took advantage by pounding out 16 hits against him and the Red Sox bullpen. If Schilling’s going to pitch like that the rest of the season, the Yankees are going to have an opportunity to make up some ground. Given the way Tim Wakefield’s gotten hit his last two times out, Boston’s “Four Aces” are starting to look a lot less scary. The Yankees still don’t have a realistic chance at the division unless they play out of their gourds and Boston tanks, but stranger things have happened.
Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, and Mientkiewicz all got three hits. Damon had six hits and two BB in the series, and hit .462/.533/.538. Jeter just continued his offensive excellence this season. He’s hitting .367/.444/.494, which is good for an OPS+ of 158. Last year, when he was a legitimate MVP candidate his OPS+ was 138.
Mientkiewicz went 3 for 4 with a HR, boosting his line on the season to .231/.302/.413 and his OPS+ went to 94 on the season. For comparison’s sake, Bobby Abreu’s is 72. I still think there’s a decent chance that Mientkiewicz won’t be a huge problem on this team, although I’m pretty much alone among Yankee fans in that. Josh Phelps should get more playing time, I don’t disagree with that, but Mientkiewicz is outproducing what Andy Phillips did last year offensively. Mientkiewicz looks worse because of the protracted slumps of Robinson Cano and Abreu.
Speaking of Cano, he’s hit in eight straight games, with a line of .324/.343/.588. He could be sneaking out of his funk, although it’s only 34 AB.
It doesn’t seem like it, but Yankees have won three of four and appear to be heading in the right direction. This weekend’s series against the Angels will be a good test.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Yankee Offense by Linear Weights through May 8
Yesterday's 8-2 win has again got the Yankees into position to go to .500. We'll see if they can capitalize on that tonight.Andy Pettitte continued to pitch effectively this year. His peripherals are still a little lackluster. His ERA of 2.72 is about a run lower than his FIP of 3.88. Even if he pitches closer to his FIP going forward, he'll be solid.
Jorge Posada's having a remarkable season to this point. After last night, he's hitting .354/.420/.556. By position-adjusted batting runs above average, he's been the best catcher in the AL, slightly ahead of Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez. Now if they can just fix his defense...
Alex Rodriguez's slump appears to be over, as he homered, the 479th of his career. It's been a while since A-Rod made a tabloid cover. but he snuck on the Daily News this morning.
More encouragingly overall, the Yankee bullpen as tracked by the bullpen counter no longer has any relievers on pace to pitch over 100 innings this season. I'd still like to see less frequent outings, as Scott Proctor and Luis Vizcaino are on pace to appear in 94 games, and Brian Bruney in 89 games, but it's nice to see the starters giving the team depth. I think the bullpen's current performance will be a lot better with less frequent use. The Yankees have a 4.90 ERA as starters, and a 4.20 ERA as relievers. Here's how that 4.20 ERA ranks amongst AL bullpens.
| Team | Abr | LG | W | L | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | HBP | BB | SO |
| Boston Red Sox | BOS | AL | 3 | 1 | 2.27 | 79.1 | 62 | 24 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 30 | 60 |
| Minnesota Twins | MIN | AL | 6 | 4 | 3.15 | 97 | 83 | 34 | 34 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 83 |
| Seattle Mariners | SEA | AL | 5 | 1 | 3.57 | 93.1 | 83 | 42 | 37 | 6 | 10 | 44 | 51 |
| Cleveland Indians | CLE | AL | 8 | 4 | 3.75 | 93.2 | 83 | 42 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 38 | 90 |
| Chicago White Sox | CWS | AL | 7 | 4 | 3.83 | 84.2 | 74 | 37 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 79 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | TOR | AL | 2 | 7 | 3.87 | 93 | 84 | 42 | 40 | 8 | 3 | 44 | 79 |
| Texas Rangers | TEX | AL | 4 | 3 | 3.90 | 108.1 | 105 | 53 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 58 | 85 |
| New York Yankees | NYY | AL | 6 | 8 | 4.20 | 120 | 99 | 58 | 56 | 11 | 4 | 65 | 75 |
| Oakland Athletics | OAK | AL | 6 | 7 | 4.33 | 89.1 | 84 | 45 | 43 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 72 |
| Los Angeles Angels | LAA | AL | 1 | 3 | 4.40 | 92 | 75 | 46 | 45 | 8 | 3 | 40 | 81 |
| Detroit Tigers | DET | AL | 9 | 8 | 4.41 | 98 | 85 | 52 | 48 | 7 | 4 | 47 | 66 |
| Baltimore Orioles | BAL | AL | 6 | 5 | 4.54 | 111 | 111 | 57 | 56 | 8 | 4 | 49 | 99 |
| Kansas City Royals | KC | AL | 1 | 9 | 5.16 | 103 | 113 | 67 | 59 | 11 | 2 | 55 | 76 |
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays | TB | AL | 6 | 7 | 5.45 | 100.2 | 119 | 66 | 61 | 13 | 7 | 51 | 70 |
Last thing for today. Here's how the Yankees rate so far by position-adjusted batting runs above average.
| Last | G | PA | BA | OBP | SLG | BA/BIP | LD% | GB% | pBR |
| Rodriguez | 31 | 141 | .358 | .426 | .797 | .358 | 21.4% | 37.8% | 18.8 |
| Posada | 29 | 112 | .354 | .420 | .556 | .410 | 25.6% | 40.2% | 9.0 |
| Jeter | 30 | 145 | .354 | .424 | .457 | .384 | 20.0% | 54.8% | 5.7 |
| Matsui | 18 | 75 | .259 | .413 | .448 | .260 | 9.4% | 56.6% | 4.1 |
| Giambi | 31 | 126 | .299 | .405 | .486 | .338 | 20.0% | 27.1% | 3.5 |
| Thompson | 6 | 8 | .250 | .250 | .500 | .667 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3 |
| Phelps | 18 | 38 | .273 | .368 | .394 | .333 | 20.0% | 28.0% | 0.2 |
| Damon | 27 | 111 | .250 | .369 | .370 | .284 | 21.1% | 42.1% | -0.3 |
| Cairo | 12 | 16 | .154 | .313 | .154 | .154 | 0.0% | 33.3% | -0.9 |
| Mientkiewicz | 30 | 84 | .230 | .293 | .392 | .215 | 23.2% | 40.6% | -1.6 |
| Cano | 30 | 127 | .267 | .315 | .362 | .337 | 15.2% | 55.4% | -3.4 |
| Cabrera | 27 | 107 | .232 | .295 | .263 | .256 | 17.4% | 55.8% | -4.1 |
| Nieves | 9 | 21 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 10.5% | 52.6% | -4.4 |
| Abreu | 31 | 149 | .258 | .336 | .313 | .323 | 19.6% | 49.0% | -5.0 |
| G | Games |
| PA | Plate appearances |
| BA | Batting Average |
| OBP | On base percentage |
| SLG | Slugging percentage |
| BA/BIP | Batting average on balls in play |
| LD% | Line drive percentage |
| GB% | Ground ball percentage |
| pBR | Batting runs above average, position-adjusted |
No surprise that A-Rod leads the pack. Posada's been the second most valuable offensive player to this point. Bobby Abreu's the current whipping boy for many fans, and it's justified statistically to this point. I'm not completely worried about him yet, although I'm starting to at least consider the fact he may be done. More disappointing to me has been Robinson Cano and to a lesser extent Melky Cabrera. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who's noticed Doug Mientkiewicz's recent hot streak. He's not going to be great, but if he can get on base at a .350 clip and slug around .420, he's not a problem (assuming his defense plays out as projected).
This team's still not clicking on all cylinders, yet is on pace to score 962 runs. Also, if they play to their pythagorean record for the rest of the season, they'll now win 92 games. You can use my Javascript calculators anytime you want to calculate either of these two numbers.
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Yankee Defense by Zone Rating - through Games of May 1
Since it's been a while since I posted any charts or tables, here's a look at how the Yankees rate by zone rating (except for the catchers) so far this year. As I always suggest, anyone unfamiliar with Zone Rating should read this article.| Player | Pos | G | GS | INN | PM | Ch | ZR | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS | RS/162 |
| Mientkiewicz, Doug | 1B | 23 | 16 | 151.0 | 19 | 24 | 0.792 | 0.835 | 20 | -1 | -1 | -8 |
| Phelps, Josh | 1B | 10 | 7 | 56.0 | 8 | 9 | 0.889 | 0.835 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Giambi, Jason | 1B | 1 | 1 | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.835 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 1B | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.835 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cano, Robinson | 2B | 24 | 24 | 215.0 | 59 | 73 | 0.808 | 0.837 | 61 | -2 | -2 | -11 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | 3B | 24 | 24 | 213.0 | 40 | 51 | 0.784 | 0.763 | 39 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Cairo, Miguel | 3B | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.763 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | CF | 19 | 16 | 140.0 | 41 | 46 | 0.891 | 0.883 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Cabrera, Melky | CF | 11 | 8 | 74.0 | 28 | 31 | 0.903 | 0.883 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Thompson, Kevin | CF | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.883 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cabrera, Melky | LF | 13 | 11 | 102.0 | 25 | 27 | 0.926 | 0.868 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Matsui, Hideki | LF | 11 | 11 | 92.0 | 17 | 21 | 0.810 | 0.868 | 18 | -1 | -1 | -16 |
| Cairo, Miguel | LF | 2 | 1 | 11.0 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 0.868 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Thompson, Kevin | LF | 2 | 1 | 10.0 | 4 | 5 | 0.800 | 0.868 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -41 |
| Abreu, Bobby | RF | 24 | 24 | 214.0 | 55 | 66 | 0.833 | 0.856 | 57 | -2 | -1 | -9 |
| Thompson, Kevin | RF | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.856 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 |
| Jeter, Derek | SS | 22 | 22 | 195.0 | 70 | 91 | 0.769 | 0.831 | 76 | -6 | -4 | -31 |
| Cairo, Miguel | SS | 4 | 1 | 20.0 | 12 | 14 | 0.857 | 0.831 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Total | 194 | 167 | 1505 | 382 | 462 | 0.827 | 0.841 | 389 | -7 | -5 | -35 | |
| NAME | Pos | GP | GS | INN | A | E | PB | SB | CS | CS% | RS | RS/162 |
| Wil Nieves, NYY | C | 7 | 5 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 1 | 41 |
| Jorge Posada, NYY | C | 22 | 19 | 173 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 13% | -1 | -5 |
| Josh Phelps, NYY | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 |
| G | Games | |
| GS | Games Started | |
| INN | Defensive Innings at Position | |
| A | Assists | |
| E | Errors | |
| Ch | Playable Chances | |
| PM | Plays Made | |
| ZR | Zone Rating (PM/Ch) | |
| Avg ZR | ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league | |
| AvgPM | Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender | |
| Diff | Difference between PM and AvgPM | |
| RS | Runs Saved | |
| RS/162 | Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games | |
| PB | Passed Balls | |
| SB | Stolen Bases Allowed | |
| CS | Caught Stealing | |
| CS% | SB / (SB + CS) |
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
2007 Yankee Run Values - Through April 9
I figure it's a good time for a small sample-size look at how the Yankees have performed so far. Here's the position players on offense and defense. The last 3 columns are if you pro-rate over the rest of the season.| Player | BR | Def | Total | pBR | pDef | pTotal |
| A Rodriguez* | 6.7 | -0.3 | 6.3 | 180 | -9 | 171 |
| J Damon* | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 68 | 18 | 86 |
| B Abreu* | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 48 | 32 | 79 |
| J Posada* | 1.6 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 43 | 4 | 48 |
| J Phelps* | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | -4 | 18 | 15 |
| W Nieves* | -0.4 | 0.0 | -0.4 | -12 | 0 | -12 |
| M Cairo* | -0.9 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -23 | 8 | -15 |
| J Giambi* | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.8 | -23 | 0 | -23 |
| D Mientkiewicz* | -1.0 | -0.3 | -1.3 | -26 | -8 | -34 |
| H Matsui* | -0.4 | -0.9 | -1.4 | -11 | -26 | -37 |
| M Cabrera* | -3.0 | 1.4 | -1.7 | -82 | 37 | -45 |
| D Jeter* | 0.2 | -1.9 | -1.7 | 6 | -52 | -46 |
| R Cano* | -0.8 | -1.8 | -2.6 | -22 | -48 | -71 |
| Total | 5.2 | -1.0 | 4.3 | 142 | -26 | 115 |
Alex Rodriguez is on fire. Damon's not getting the hype, but he's doing really well too. The middle infield is sucking it up so far on both sides of the ball, but I don't expect that to continue for long. And what about the pitching?
| Player | RSAA | pRSAA |
| S Henn* | 2.2 | 59 |
| M Myers* | 1.9 | 51 |
| B Bruney* | 1.7 | 46 |
| K Farnsworth* | 1.4 | 38 |
| M Rivera* | 0.9 | 25 |
| L Vizcaino* | 0.6 | 15 |
| A Pettitte* | 0.3 | 9 |
| S Proctor* | -0.3 | -8 |
| C Pavano* | -0.7 | -18 |
| D Rasner* | -3.0 | -80 |
| M Mussina* | -4.1 | -111 |
| K Igawa* | -4.7 | -126 |
| Total | -3.7 | -100 |
| BR | Batting Runs above average (linear weights) |
| Def | Runs saved above average by Zone Rating |
| Total | BR + Def |
| RSAA | Runs saved above average (lgERA - ERA)/9 x IP |
The bullpen is carrying the pitching staff so far, which isn't exactly news to anyone who's been watching. They won't be able to keep up their performance, because if they're pitching as much as they have to this point they're going to get worn out, but you have to figure Moose will get better, and Igawa will either get better or be pitching in Scranton. Wang should return by the end of the month. As I mentioned at the top, small sample size clearly applies, but this should give you a rough idea of where the Yankees should get better. The fact that they've been scoring like they have with minimal to negative contribution from the bulk of their players is a very good sign. If they get their starting pitching to be serviceable, they'll be in pretty good shape.
Sunday, April 8, 2007
InstaWin!
One of the things I like about doing a liveblog is how it captures how I feel at a particular moment in the game. If I write a recap, it’s inevitably colored by my feelings about the ultimate outcome of the game. A bad play early doesn’t seem so bad if they win, and a great play early seems futile if they lose. But in that liveblog, each event is described with the feelings I had at that time. If you go back and read yesterday’s liveblog, you’ll see the utter feeling of resignation I felt.
It was dreadful. Kei Igawa somehow pitched five innings, but he’d given up the game in the second, when the Orioles jumped to a 5-2 lead. Two innings later it was 7-2, and the game just felt over. It wasn’t just because they were down by 5—they’ve got a good enough offense to come back from that—it’s that they were going down so very meekly. They weren’t making Trachsel work, they weren’t generating rallies that were falling short, they were just making outs.
Every time they make this kind of comeback, I tell myself that I’ll never doubt again, but really, you can’t keep that kind of promise. It happens, but not often enough to expect it. Early on, it was plausible, but they weren’t putting up much of a fight. As the game got later, though the bullpen shut the O’s down again, a comeback became even less and less likely. The turning point, when a comeback seemed plausible for the first time, was when A-Rod came back from 0-2 to walk in the eighth inning to put the tying run on deck. And with Jason Giambi’s three-run homer, a tie was just one swing away.
But still, even then, my mind fixed not on how they could have win, but on the things they did to lose. If only Jeter hadn’t dropped the ball at second base, if only he’d gotten on base in front of A-Rod’s 1st inning homer, or Abreu’s eighth inning walk. If only Cano had been able to get a hit, or if that pop fly that fell behind first had gone just a little further. If only that pitch to Markakis in the first was just a little further outside…
The Yanks went down meekly to Chris Ray in the ninth on Friday, and they were well on their way to doing that again yesterday. Doug Mientkiewicz ripped a ball to start the inning, but a diving grab by Chris Gomez turned a double into an out. And you had to figure that if they weren’t going to get that break, they had no chance. Then Melky got blown away, and Cano fell behind 0-1. But then Cano got a hit, and Jeter was up with a chance to tie or win it.
My thoughts went to Jeter’s earlier failures, and how even if he grounded out to end the game, he’d be given a pass in the media for the loss, while A-Rod gets crucified for doing anything wrong in a game where everyone failed. And Jeter came very close to blowing it, swinging at a pitch that nearly hit him, turning either a 3-1 count (or maybe a HBP) into a 2-2 count. But Jeter was able to work the walk, and the game continued.
Before Jeter’s AB, I joked that maybe the O’s should walk the bases loaded so they could strike out A-Rod. I wasn’t really serious, but I knew that if they did get to A-Rod, and he did strike out, that A-Rod would be the goat… despite having carried the team the whole game. And when Abreu was hit with the second pitch… up came A-Rod with the bases loaded and two outs, do-or-die.
Maybe he’d hit a single to win, or draw a walk to tie. He could hit a deep fly out, or a weak grounder. He could pop up, line out, strike out looking, or strike out swinging. Or he could hit a homer. There were so many things he could do to lose the game, so few things he could do to tie or win it. Just the mere fact that he makes outs 60% of the time made it more likely he’d fail here than succeed. But I also knew that this was the golden opportunity.
A-Rod’s reputation is unfair for so many reasons. If he makes a first inning out with RISP, people remember that. If he drives the runner home, people cheer, then forget about it. And it’s just the first inning, so what does it matter? Unless, of course, he made an out. Which he’s more likely than not to do anyway.
The reputation really snowballed since he first came to New York. He “struggled” in his first season, never hitting like the MVP he was in Texas. That disappointed fans, and there were the inevitable questions about whether he was “cut out” for New York. Then he singlehandedly carried them to victory in the ALDS, and was poised to be the ALCS MVP. Then Bill Mueller singled, and all was lost. The slap play in Game Six became the lasting image of the series for the Yankees, and A-Rod was blamed far more than his fair share for the loss. Jeter, Sheffield and Matsui deserved far more of the blame.
Then came 2005, where he was obviously the MVP the moment the Yankees got back into the playoff hunt. He was hitting as well as he’d ever had, but in August, there started a movement to give David Ortiz the MVP. Ortiz’s numbers weren’t as good as A-Rod’s, and he played DH while A-Rod played a strong 3B. So Ortiz’s clutch numbers, which were spectacular, were introduced. Ortiz hit better in the clutch. A-Rod hit worse. A-Rod’s numbers were still pretty good in those situations, but in order to make Ortiz seem like the better candidate, his supporters started to preach that A) Clutch Hitting was basically the only thing that mattered, and B) A-Rod wasn’t just worse than normal in the clutch, he outright STUNK in the clutch.
It didn’t work, A-Rod hung on to his MVP, though the vote shouldn’t have been nearly as close. Then came a 2-15 ALDS against the Angels, including some crucial failures in big spots, and the reputation grew. The 2004 ALDS was forgotten, the blame for the ALCS in 2004 was placed even more on him, and he was blamed almost entirely for the 2005 ALDS loss, while Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui got off blameless.
And the reputation stuck, and when A-Rod struggled through the month of June in 2006, and failed in several clutch spots, critics jumped on him. “Ah-ha! We told you he stunk in the clutch! See? He can’t do it! He never could!” A come-from-behind walkoff against the Braves was discounted because it was off a crap pitcher and a mediocre team in interleague play. And then came a 1-14 ALDS against the Tigers, a loss that he was against blamed for (while—guess who?—Gary Sheffield wasn’t criticized for). And so it goes.
And now he was up in the bottom of the ninth. Without him, the game would be 7-3, or maybe worse. It would stink if he made an out here, but you couldn’t blame him for the loss, not with all he’d already done.
But they were going to blame him. You KNOW they were going to blame him. If he walked, they’d ignore it, if he singled, they’d cheer it, then forget it. There was only one thing he could do to make them remember, at least for a little while.
The first pitch was outside, and the second was over the outside corner for strike one. The third was over the plate, and A-Rod swung through it.
Oh no. 1-2… a strike looking at the knees. Or maybe a swinging strike on a ball off the plate, or worst of all, swinging through a high pitch he could drive. It happens all the time, but if he did that here, they’d remember it… for a long time. I didn’t expect a strikeout… but I dreaded the fallout of one. As though a strikeout was worse than a fly ball to the warning track. But to the media, it is. Because it just seems so much more inept.
The 1-2… a swing… contact! Good contact! Is Patterson going to be able to get that one? It looks like it’s going to get over him, he’s pulling up…. IT’S GONE! IT’S GONE!!!
A-Rod knew it the moment he swung the bat, he knew he’d won the game, he knew he’d hit a grand slam. And maybe they’d boo him Sunday if he hit into a first inning double play, but this was a game that mattered to this team at this point, off a pitcher who isn’t just good, but very good.
If the Yankees had lost, they’d be 1-3, in last place. They’d have had terrible pitching for every game, their bullpen would be spent, and it would be panic time in the tabloids. The pitching has still stunk, the bullpen is still beat, but they’re now 2-2, and things are looking okay enough to avoid any kind of panic in the media. This team didn’t need extra pressure, and A-Rod’s blast took it off of them for a couple of days, and off of him for a couple of weeks, at least. There are, and always will be, a number of clutch failures that people will point to with A-Rod. There have been plenty for Jeter and Ortiz, too, but people never point to them. This is one that his defenders can point to. No, he’s not as clutch as Papi, but nobody is. A-Rod can get it done when the game’s on the line, and he gets it done when the game’s being contended, too. There are actually people out there who think the Yankees would be somehow better off without A-Rod, that they should let him walk this offseason and get someone else—anybody else—to take over at third. That he’s just so inept when they need him he’s worthless. We call these people idiots, but they’re also loud people. This will shut them up for a day or two. On this point, at least.
So the Yankees head into the series finale 2-2. You know, they’ve been terrible on defense and with starting pitching, but they’re still outscoring their opponents 29-25. If you extrapolate that ratio to 162 games, they’d score nearly 1200 runs while giving up more than 1000. But they’d win 93 games.
And really, you’ve gotta expect things to get better. Worst case scenario, they’re not going to have a starting rotation ERA of 9.87.
John Mileskey (SJ) will be liveblogging today’s game, so join us this afternoon for some Grade A snark. Happy baseball!
(One last note: it’s been mentioned that the liveblogs are replacing our “usual” analysis. Not really. The liveblogs are replacing our usual non-posts. For me, they’re like a writing exercise, and hopefully they’ll get my gears clicking enough to get me back into a groove. I’m about to turn 30, and I’ve wasted my life. If there’s a way for me to accomplish anything in life, it’s with my words. So I’ve got to find a way to make it work. And hopefully the liveblogs will help.
Plus, the Game Chatters are just pure fun!)
Thursday, April 5, 2007
4/5/07 - D-Rays at Yanks (Liveblog)
Pregame: We won’t be liveblogging every game, but we’ll try to do these when we can.
And Yahoo’s got the lineup posted.
NY Yankees
R. Cano 2b
D. Jeter ss
B. Abreu rf
A. Rodriguez 3b
J. Giambi dh
H. Matsui lf
J. Posada c
D. Mientkiewicz 1b
M. Cabrera cf
A. Pettitte p
-Robinson Cano is pretty much the opposite of a prototypical leadoff hitter. I supposed batting Jeter leadoff makes too much sense. If Tampa had a lefty in the pen, this would actually be a good way of breaking up the lefties and righties, but it’s not a big deal anyway.
-No Damon again tonight. I guess any worries about playing time for Melky were unfounded.
-So, anyone wish the Yankees had bid $52 million for Matsuzaka?
YES Pre-game show: Kim Jones looks chilly. Damon apparently has a strained calf. According to David Justice, Damon should be careful. Thanks David.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, Andy Pettitte used to pitch for the Yankees. I GET IT!
Carl Crawford should just get his name changed to “The Speedy Carl Crawford’ already.
They aren’t going to DL Damon yet, so, the Yankees’ fourth OF right now is Miguel Cairo? I like Miggy even though I know he stinks, but ugh.
Top of the first: Pettitte takes the mound to begin his warmups and gets a standing O.
First pitch fastball to Carl Crawford is a strike. Second pitch is chopped to Pettitte for the first out.
Why is Ben Zobrist batting second for Tampa anyway? Apparently it’s to ground out to Cano for out # 2.
Jonny Gomes rips the first pitch he sees for a single. Runner on first, two outs, and Ty Wigginton up. And Wigginton pops out before I can even post about Gomes. Good return for Andy so far.
Bottom of the first: Jae Seo getting ready to face leadoff Robby. Robby hits an infield single.
And Jeter bunts for the first time this year, and I get mad for the first time at a Yankee game this year. Seriously, why would you bunt in the first inning against a bad pitcher when you were an MVP candidate? It makes no sense. None.
Bobby Abreu up. I love Bobby. He’s much easier to root for than Gary Sheffield was. And Abreu flies out the other way for out # 2.
Amazingly, Alex Rodriguez hasn’t been booed yet. Let’s see what happens after this AB. Well, he hits an RBI double that could have been caught, and they cheer him. For now. Yanks 1, Rays 0.
Giambi flies out to center to end the first. Yankees seem to be making decent contact against Seo. Should bode well for the rest of the game.
Top of the second: Pettitte battles Delmon Yong before retiring him on a grounder to Jeter, who is on pace to be 100 runs below average by zone rating this year through 1 game. He follows that up by getting Elijah Dukes to ground out on the first pitch. Lots of grounders tonight so far.
Pettitte’s throwing strikes, but he seems to be lacking velocity tonight. Topping out around 89. And as I talk about how he’s throwing strikes, he walks Iwamura.
And now he’s behind 3-0 to Upton. Forget what I said about him throwing strikes….
Cano ranges far to his left to field a gronder from Upton, but loses the ball tranferring from glove to hand and Upton’s safe. They scored it a hit, but it should have been made.
And that’s a new one. “Over a leaping Jeter!”. Rays tie the game at 1-1 on a single. Pettitte’s really laboring now, and is on an 80 pitch count. So he should be good for another inning after this.
Suddenly I miss Jaret Wright. Pettitte looks terrible right now. 34 pitches in the second inning after needing only eight in the first.
Yanks get lucky on a pitch in the dirt that didn’t get far enough away from the plate for Upton to score. He tried anyway, Posada flips to Pettitte covering at home, and the Yanks are out of the inning. That inning sort of sucked.
Bottom of the second:
Hideki Matsui leads off the second. I have no rationale for it, but I think Matsui’s going to have a big year. It won’t start with this AB, as he takes a called strike 3.
Posada works the count to 2-0, then lines a single between third and short. Nice opposite field stroke there.
And Doug Mientkiewicz strokes a single to RF. I think best case for Mientkiewicz is the Yankee version of John Olerud. I’d take that.
And Melky and Cano both fail to advance the runners, inning over. Jae Seo is well on his way to career win # 26.
Top of the Third: Ben Zobrist grounds routinely to Jeter, but he can’t pick it cleanly and and Zobrist reaches. So Jeter’s now on pace to be -200 this year.
Joe Girardi “The Yankee defense was not great last year.” Really Joe?
Posada one ups Jeter with a passed ball. Zobrist’s now on second with no outs, and the whole Yankee team looks flat. Pettitte gets what looks like a gift call on 3-2 to Gomes for strike three. I’ll take it.
This game is painful to watch. Zobrist makes a move for third, Pettitte catches him and throws…. TO THE WRONG BASE. Gah.
Infield brough in in the third inning. Bad move. I’m not sure who’s available for the middle innings today, although I’d imagine it’ll be Sean Henn first.
Young ropes an RBI single to CF, 2-1 Rays. Pettitte’s homecoming is not going very well.
DP Grounder gets out of the inning. I blame Pettitte for not picking up Jeter there.
Bottom of the third: The Yankees have to score here. If you don’t get to a pitcher like Jae Seo early, you may as well just go home.
And Jeter gets it started with a sharp single grounded between third and short.
Abreu hits one pretty well the other way, but TSCC chases it down.
Alex Rodriguez is hitting .500 this season. If he does that, he’ll be the MVP.
Rodriguez pops up in the infield, and they don’t boo him? Wow.
I have a hunch Giambi’s going yard here. Giambi flies out to CF instead. So much for that….
Top of the fourth: Pettitte’s thrown 62 of his allotted 80 pitches so far to get 9 outs. Wonderful.
Iwamura lines out hard to Rodriguez at third. One down.
Pettitte fans a ninja for out # 2.
Pettitte gets a popout to Jeter for the third out. Good inning there. Now, how about that 1000 run offense showing up?
Bottom of the fourth:
I just realized that if this was Randy Johnson pitching instead of Andy Pettitte, we’d probably be happy with four runs in two innings. I don’t miss that guy at all….
Matsui up. He was killing the ball in the spring, but looks like he’s a little off-balance right now. Hideki grounds to Wigginton who makes a nice diving stop, and then a throw to Jae Seo, who was late covering. Matsui is not credited with a hit.
Posada follows up by lacing a single into RF. First and third, no outs. I predict the first triple play of 2007.
Mientkiewicz’s lack of power fools Dukes, who stops coming in on the ball because he knows a major league hitter would not hit a ball that weakly. It dunks in, and Yanks tie it at 2. Melky up.
Melky advances the runners by grounding to first, bringing up Robinson Cano, Hitting Machine.
And what do Hitting Machines do? They hit. RBI single for Cano, 3-2 Yanks.
Posada’s getting White Out put on his fingers, they’re saying Pettitte may be having trouble picking up the signs.
Jeter hustles and beats out a DP grounder, allowing Mientkiewicz to score from third. 4-2 Yankees.
Hustle giveth, and hustle taketh away. Jeter gets caught stealing, Inning over. But three run innings are good.
Top of the fifth: Does Pettitte have another inning in him?
Pettitte’s out to start the fifth, but The Daily Proctor is warming in case.
TSCC easily beats out an infield single.
Zobrist bunts and Pettitte’s shuffle throw gets knocked out of Mientkiewicz’s glove by Zobrist. Crawford gets to third, runners on the corners, no outs, and Pettitte’s day is done.
He didn’t pitch really well, but he’s working his way back from back spasms and it’s apparently somewhat cold in the Bronx tonight. Regardless, there’s just something right about seeing Pettitte back in a Yankee uniform.
I have no idea yet if Scott Proctor is for real. I sure hope he is. We’ll find out soon. A steal puts the tying run on second.
Proctor’s throwing breaking balls more than fastballs tonight. Interesting.
And Proctor gets Gomes to swing at a breaking pitch in the dirt for out # 1. Good break and rotation on that pitch. They’re saying it’s a curve, but it looks like a slider to me.
Wigginton flys out to RCF, which brings in TSCC from third and lets Zobrist advance to third. Two down, Proctor pitching to Young.
And Posada with his fifteenth passed ball of the game lets the tying run home.
Jeter can’t get Delmon Young at first on a grounder that’s scored an error. Mientkiewicz didn’t scoop what looked like a scoopable throw.
Proctor’s done his job at least.
Posada throws out Young on the steal attempt, but the Rays tie it at 4.
Bottom of the fifth:
Bobby Abreu works a full-count walk. That’ll bring up Public Enemy # 1.
And Public Enemy #1 grounds into a double play.
Giambi up. And he fans. To the sixth we go.
I may be a bit slow to update over the next hour.
Top of the sixth:
And that’s why I worry about Proctor. He gives up a go-ahead HR. 5-4 Rays.
(Fabian): Past a lunging Jeter.
Top of the eighth:
I’m back, just in time to watch the New RuN Fairy give up the lead.
Can they pull Posada? He’s been absolutely horrendous behind the plate tonight.
Vizcaino = Felix Rodriguez.
Tampa takes the lead 7-6, but two pop outs have the Yankees on the verge of not putting the game out of reach. I don’t like the Gomes vs. Vizcaino matchup.
Gomes had a heart attack? I had no idea. Good for him to work his way back from that.
This is a must-win game with Cy Loewen going tomorrow. Vizcaino needs to stop the bleeding right now.
And he does, with a fly out to melky.
Bottom of the eighth:
You know what’d be cool? Yankee runs.
Mientkiewicz tries to get the party started. Is it bad when your first baseman is your worst hitter?
The reason i’m not as down on the Mientkiewicz signing as many are is because of that. I think he can get on base at a reasonable clip.
WTF??? WHY ARE YOU GIVING AWAY ONE OF THE SIX OUTS YOU HAVE LEFT? ASININE. GRRR.
If that was unclear, Joe Torre felt that a bunt by Melky after a Mientkiewicz walk was a smart play. They didn’t even advance the runner, just handed a young pitcher who walked the leadoff hitter a free out.
Thankfully, Robinson Cano, Hitting Machine, just did what Hitting Machines do. He singles, runners on first and second, and Captain Clutch batting. He’s 2 for 4, with 2 errors.
I’d like to congratulate Michael kay for getting under my skin after only two games. Good job Michael.
Jeter grounds out to the Stokes, but he messes up and tries to force Melky at third. Everybody’s safe!
Abreu up, bases loaded, one down.
Abreu grounds out and they force Melky at home. And it’s Hero or Goat time for Mr Cover Counter.
And Rodriguez pops up to second on what looked like a very hittable pitch. Crap.
Top of the ninth:
Will anyone ask Joe Torre why he gave away an out that inning? I wonder…
Kyle Farnsworth in to pour gas on the fire.
Two up, two down. Farnsworth’s wearing glasses tonight. Maybe he should always wear them.
Dukes draws a walk with two downs. He looks like a player.
Farnsworth fields a chopper for out # 3.
Cool Giambi’s leading off next inning. Well, he should be, but he’s not.
Bottom of the ninth
How about a walkoff win in the snow? Is that too much too ask?
Josh Phelps pinch-hitting for Cairo. He’s applying for his True Yankee™ membership card with this AB.
Phelps works the count full. The drama is building.
And he fans on an 88 mph “fast"ball for out #1.
That brings up Godzilla. And he grounds out to B.J. Upton for out #2.
Posada flies out to end it. Just a little under what would have tied the game.
Yanks played like garbage, they deserved to lose.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
North Jersey.com: Yanks’ Mientkiewicz back in the swing of things
DUNEDIN, Fla.—In the ninth inning of a lopsided exhibition game, Doug Mientkiewicz pulled into second base with a double—an event that less than half of Monday’s crowd of 5,510 actually witnessed at Knology Park.
Prior to smacking that drive up against the right center field fence, Mientkiewicz had merely one hit in his first 25 Grapefruit League at-bats.
Mientkiewicz’s bad start this spring has a lot of people who hated his signing up in arms. However, it’s spring training and small sample size caveats apply. Also, I don’t see any way he’s not breaking camp as a Yankee. The bigger question is who is he going to be sharing time with. If the Yankees can’t decide between Phelps and Phillips, then they should probably carry 11 pitchers, not 12, and keep both. Besides, when’s the last time Joe Torre made any meaningful use of the last two or three men in his bullpen anyway?
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Looking Ahead to 2007 - Doug Mientkiewicz
In a nightmare for spelling-challenged Yankee bloggers everywhere, the Yankees inked Doug Mientkiewicz to play first base in 2007. Mientkiewicz brings a reputation as a good glove with a decent batting eye, but very little power, especially for a traditional power spot.
I wasn’t wild about the Mientkiewicz signing, but frankly when I compared the options, I didn’t see much in the way of better options, at least on the free agent market.
Mientkiewicz’s offensive projections aren’t pretty.
He projects to be below average for a first baseman, even with a passable OBP. The thing is, he’s not replacing a very good first base situation from 2006. Here’s how the Yankees fared at first base in 2006.
The chart should be self-explanatory. The first line is all Yankee 1B in 2006. The second line is just Jason Giambi’s line at first base, and the last line is the first basemen sans Giambi (mainly Andy Phillips). That’s who Mientkiewicz is replacing.
A lot of Mientkiewicz’s reputation comes from his glove, and zone rating agrees that he’s pretty good there.
This is purely chances converted into outs. Mientkiewicz also has a good reputation for saving bad throws from his infielders, which has been measured to be statistically valid in the Fielding Bible, which should help a certain third baseman who gets a lot of flack,
Add it all up, you have a slightly below average player at first base. He projects to be about five runs below average over a full season. If he meets those projections, he’d be worth about a half win to a win above what the Yankees got out of first base last season without Giambi. The Yankees can also try to use his glove to better advantage by leveraging it in games where they lead the late innings if they end up keeping Josh Phelps and starting him against lefties.
Mientkiewicz is coming off back surgery, which could be a good thing if it helps him outplay his projection.
So yeah, Mientkiewicz isn’t great, but he isn’t really horrible either.
Wednesday, January 3, 2007
N.Y. Post: YANKS, DOUG REACH TENTATIVE DEAL
While no agreement was reached regarding Randy Johnson yesterday, the Yankees did make one move. They reached a tentative deal with first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, and he will be undergoing a physical today.
Mientkiewicz, a former Met who recorded the last out of Boston’s 2004 World Series victory, should bolster the team’s defense at first, allowing Jason Giambi to DH more often. The 32-year-old left-handed hitter batted .283 with four homers and 43 RBIs in 314 at-bats for the Royals last season. He must pass his physical, of course, before his short-term deal becomes official.
Even though I’ve been expecting this, that doesn’t really make it any better. The problem as I see it is that now the Yankees will feel they don’t need to upgrade first base. If Doug Mientkiewicz is the answer, then you’re asking the wrong question.
Update: Out of curiousity, I played around a little with career platoon differentials vs. projections for the starting nine. I’m using a simple run estimator based on OBP/SLG which is OBP x SLG x .87 x PA. I then divide this by the number of outs (AB - H) and multiply that by 27 to get RC/27.
The Yankees’ starting nine (with Mientkiewicz) projects to an RC/27 of 6.8 vs. righties, and 6.18 vs. lefties. Replacing Mientkiewicz with Phelps vs lefties would boost that to 6.21 lefties.
Here are Mientkiewicz’s career runs saved above average by Zone Rating.
With the caveat that ZR doesn’t measure all aspects of a first baseman’s job, the glove still appears to be sound.
Mientkiewicz’s not good, but he’s not awful. He’ll probably be about average or slightly below.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
Who’s On First?
Right now the Yankees’ roster is apparently short at a position that is traditionally the biggest offensive position in baseball. They have Andy Phillips and drafted Josh Phelps in the Rule 5 draft, but neither one is particularly inspiring. The Yankees have been linked to free agents Doug Mientkiewicz, Shea Hillenbrand, Eduardo Perez, and Craig Wilson. There have also been rumors about the availability of Richie Sexson in trade. One other name I haven’t seen mentioned but who is available is Matt Lecroy.
None of these choices really seem all that appealing, but we can try and compare them based on how they project heading into 2007. To do this, I’m going to use the newest kid on the projection block, CHONE, by Sean Smith who runs the great sabermetric blog Anaheim Angels all the way. Smith’s one of the guys who got me into zone rating for analyzing defense and does a lot of other interesting work.
So, using Smith’s projections for offense and defense, here’s how the people listed above compare for 2007.
In the table above, def is the player’s projected defensive value in 2007. lw/600 is runs above/below average using linear weights and the projected numbers above for 600 plate appearances.
Richie Sexson’s the best projected player going forward, but he’d also be the most expensive to acquire in terms of salary and talent. It’s interesting to see that Andy Phillips still projects as the second best option despite his terrible season last year on offense. A lot of that is based on his solid minor league track record, but I don’t have much confidence in him matching that projection after watching Phillips hit last year. While I think translating minor league numbers is useful in many cases, it has limitations and someone like Phillips may be an example of those limitations.
It seems that Doug Mientkiewicz would be the best free agent option available, as he makes up for a lackluster -7 offensive projection with +5 defense, which would net out at -2, which is close enough to average. I’ve been championing Craig Wilson due to his ability to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup, but overall he would project to be about as valuable as Mientkiewicz. Full season numbers in a case like this need to be tempered with the platoon difference in mind. If Wilson makes the Yankees worse overall but better in games started by left-handers, it may change what appears to be a similar full-season contribution, but I have no easy way of quantifying that.
Wilson didn’t do much to impress the Yankees during his brief stint in the Bronx, and is supposedly looking for a long-term deal, so I’m not sure he’s much of an option.
A little worse than the Phillips/Mientkiewicz/Wilson triumverate is the Matt Lecroy, Eduardo Perez, Josh Phelps, and Shea Hillenbrand group. None are very good defensively by the numbers. Perez and/or Phelps may have some use as lefty mashers who don’t see a lot of defensive time. Lecroy is an average hitter but a pretty bad defender, and Shea Hillenbrand brings little to the table as far as I can see on either offense or defense.
So there you have it. A bunch of options, none of whom are that good. It doesn’t seem that it matters much whether it’s Mientkiewicz, Wilson, Phillips, Phelps or some combination of them. If only the Yankees could get Albert Pujols, who projects at +65 on offense+defense.
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