Tuesday, December 1, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the Defense
As requested, here’s a look at how Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the overall team defense did compared to their projections.
After a 2008 season that saw him get to AA, Cervelli was still probably off the radar for 2009 despite a brief cameo at the end of 2008. However, injuries forced him into the picture, and he ended up getting 101 PAs. Here are his projections entering 2009, pro-rated to those 101 PAs.
| francisco cervelli | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 101 | 92 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 25 | .223 | .296 | .304 | 53 | .268 | .174 | .221 | .315 | .362 | 95.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 101 | 90 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 18 | .272 | .337 | .422 | 82 | .321 | .221 | .271 | .370 | .420 | 114.2% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 24 | .229 | .300 | .335 | 60 | .277 | .182 | .229 | .324 | .372 | 98.5% |
| 2009 tht projection | 101 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | .236 | .315 | .321 | 59 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 | .236 | .317 | .304 | 56 | .281 | .186 | .234 | .329 | .377 | 100.2% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 101 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | .240 | .314 | .326 | 61 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.2% |
| 2009 average projection | 101 | 90 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 21 | .239 | .313 | .335 | 62 | .286 | .190 | .238 | .334 | .382 | 101.8% |
| 2009 actuals | 101 | 94 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | .298 | .309 | .372 | 55 | .281 | .185 | .233 | .329 | .376 |
Cervelli had shown pretty good plate discipline in the minors, but it deserted him in the majors. Despite that, he was able to come fairly close to his projected OBP because he hit six more singles. That also explains why he was able to exceed his SLG by a fair amount.
The .298 average is nice, but it was sort of empty, and it's doubtful he'll be able to replicate the same type of performance in 2010 if he has to rely on hitting .298 to do it. The good news is he should walk a little more and he's still going to be just 24, so he has room for growth in his offensive game. While it's probably unlikely he'll be more than a backup, he should be a decent one, especially if the good defense he showed in 2009 carries forward.
Sort of like Cervelli, Ramiro Pena hadn't gotten past AA prior to 2009, and he hadn't really impressed there either, slugging a monstrous .297 in 2008 for Trenton. Pena's calling card isn't his bat though, it's his glove. In a surprise, he made the Yankees on opening day as a backup IF, since Alex Rodriguez was out rehabbing his hip and the only other backup IF on the roster was Angel Berroa.
Because of Pena's unimpressive minor league resume, his projections were unimpressive.
| ramiro pena | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 121 | 113 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 25 | .233 | .284 | .297 | 48 | .258 | .173 | .215 | .300 | .342 | 86.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 121 | 110 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | .224 | .272 | .320 | 50 | .255 | .170 | .212 | .297 | .339 | 85.7% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 121 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | .223 | .285 | .286 | 47 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .339 | 85.8% |
| 2009 tht projection | 121 | 113 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | .224 | .276 | .291 | 45 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .294 | .336 | 84.8% |
| 2009 zips projection | 121 | 114 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | .224 | .269 | .263 | 39 | .240 | .158 | .199 | .282 | .323 | 80.9% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 121 | 112 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 21 | .232 | .282 | .290 | 46 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .340 | 85.9% |
| 2009 average projection | 121 | 112 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 | .227 | .278 | .291 | 46 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .295 | .337 | 85.0% |
| 2009 actuals | 121 | 115 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | .287 | .317 | .383 | 71 | .297 | .208 | .253 | .342 | .386 |
Like Cervelli, Pena hit more and walked less than expected. However, he did show a little more pop than projected, with two extra doubles. Obviously when we're dealing with sample sizes like this we shouldn't try to infer too much about what it means going forward, but Pena's final line in 2009 was better than replacement level, and would have made him about a win better than replacement level on offense if he had done it over 650 PAs.
So, how about the Yankee defense?
Since I started blogging in 2004, there's been one recurring theme with the Yankees. Their defense has generally been bad to awful. While you can hit and pitch well enough to overcome that, it can be frustrating to watch players not making plays other players can make.
When the Yankees let Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi go and replaced them with Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, that alone looked like a pretty decent defensive upgrade. Here's how the defense projected heading into 2009 compared to what they actually ended up doing.
| Player | Pos | pZR | pUZR | pRAA | zRSAA | uRSAA | aRSAA | diff |
| Jorge Posada | C | -5 | -10 | -5 | ||||
| Jose Molina | C | 2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -4 | ||
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Kevin Cash | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 2 | -1 |
| Juan Miranda | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 2 | -2 | 0 | -2 | -5 | -3 | -4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | -2 | -1 | -2 | -6 | -9 | -7 | -6 |
| Cody Ransom | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 |
| Angel Berroa | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -1 | -1 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
| Brett Gardner | CF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Johnny Damon | LF | -1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -9 | -5 | -6 |
| Freddy Guzman | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | -1 | -3 | -4 |
| Eric Hinske | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavier Nady | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | -2 | -27 | -25 |
pZR: Projected runs saved above average according to zone rating, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pUZR: Projected runs saved above average according to UZR, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pRAA: Average of pZR and pUZR
zRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to zone rating
uRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to UZR
aRSAA: Average of zRSAA and uRSAA
diff: aRSAA - pRAA (negative means worse than projected)
The Yankee defense actually didn't play as well as projected, with the primary culprits being Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa's contributions also didn't really help. On the plus side, Derek Jeter was seven runs better than projected and Brett Gardner was two runs better.
Last year's team was about 40 runs below average, so at the very least they were better than that.
Interestingly, I completely forgot to do a season review for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, so I'll post that next, then Mo's and then that should wrap up the backwards-looking stuff for now.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
MLB.com: Hughes among six Yankees cuts
TAMPA, Fla.—With spring innings now at a premium, the Yankees dispatched six right-handed pitchers to Minor League camp on Saturday morning.
Anthony Claggett, Phil Hughes and Steven Jackson were optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, while Humberto Sanchez was optioned to Double-A Trenton. Sergio Mitre and Jason Johnson were also re-assigned to Minor League camp.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman lauded Hughes’ work this spring but said the team would be doing a disservice to keep him in camp. The 22-year-old will continue preparing as a starting pitcher and could be among the first considered if there is a need in New York.
“I told him that he had a great camp and to keep working,” Cashman said. “We told him about all the things that we saw and what he needs to continue to work on. He’s in a great frame of mind. He knows he did great here, but he also knows that it’s not in his best interest to now be held back.”
Hughes pitched Friday against the Twins in Fort Myers, allowing three hits and one earned run in 4 1/3 innings. In three starts against big league teams this spring, Hughes has allowed five hits and three earned runs in 12 1/3 innings (2.19 ERA).
Not surprising, and probably the best thing for Hughes’s development in the long-term. He’ll surely get some innings in the bigs at some point this year.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
SWB: Jennings - Yankees add four pitchers to 40-man
Four pitchers were added to the Yankees 40-man roster on Thursday, filling each of the roster’s openings without taking anyone off. Added to the roster were Anthony Claggett, Steven Jackson, Michael Dunn and Chris Garcia. All four would have been Rule 5 eligible if not protected. Among the noteable’s left exposed to this winter’s Rule 5 are Alan Horne, Kevin Whelan and J.B. Cox.
At some point the Yankees probably need to look at trading some of their minor league pitching depth or risk losing them in the Rule 5 draft. I think Whelan will get picked by someone. Horne’s coming off injury so he’s probably safe. Cox may also get a look by someone, although I don’t think he’s going to end up as much more than back of the bullpen filler at this point. I’m glad Garcia is being protected, I still have an irrational belief that he’s going to end up as a good pitcher in some capacity.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Those That Missed The Cut Pt. 1
The following is a brief rundown on the prospects THAT did not make my Top 25. Questions, comments, and criticism are welcome. I’m going to attempt to have the Top 25 done by the time ST rolls around, but…no guarantees. The following list isn’t in any specific order. Ages listed are “baseball ages” for the 2008 season.
Eric Duncan, 1B, 23 In Duncan’s time in the Yankee minor league system I have ranked him as the 3rd (‘04), 1st (‘05), 2nd (‘06), and 10th (‘07) best prospect in the organization. While Duncan’s high initial rankings were due in part to the Yankee system being terrible, I think that knowing what I know now, I would not have ranked him as high. 2007 was the same old story for Eric. He drew a good amount of walks and didn’t strike out too much, but an inability to hit for average killed his overall numbers: .241/.323/.389. I’m at the point where I don’t believe Duncan will ever learn to do that and his power, on base skills, and defense aren’t strong enough to make him worthwhile unless he can his average up a lot. The Yankees seem to have soured on Eric as well, leaving him unprotected for the Rule V draft, where no one picked him up. It can no longer be said that “Duncan is so young, players his age are normally in [insert favorable minor league level here]” and being what he is, a “slugger” who has trouble providing offensive value due to an inability to turn quality ABs into quality outcomes, I could not leave him in my top 25.
Chris Garcia, RHP, 22 If he can somehow get healthy and stay that way, Garcia has the ability to make me look stupid for leaving him off. However, having missed time due to TJ surgery and then a knee injury while rehabbing, which followed a ‘06 where he also struggled with injuries…I’m beginning to think Garcia just won’t stay healthy enough for long enough to show why some talent evaluators felt he had more ability than Phil Hughes.
J.B. Cox, RHP, 24 Cox could also make me look foolish, but in my defense, he was one of the last guys cut. I’m confident that he will be back to some level of “normal” this year, but a guy coming off an injury whose projected future ML role is 7th inning guy didn’t strike me as someone I wanted in the top 25.
Tim Norton, RHP, 25 This one really hurts. Norton had filthy stuff. Great low to mid 90s fastball and developing splitter. While the Yankees were using him as a starter, he seemed destined for the bullpen as a shutdown reliever. Unfortunately, 5 starts into his ‘07 he had to undergo shoulder surgery, which is not something I tend to be forgiving with.
Brett Gardner, OF, 24 I think this is the one I’m going to get the most hate for, but…I just don’t see it. I’ve gone over his stat lines numerous times, I’ve seen him play, and I just don’t get the Brett Gardner love. Last year I said he could be “the player that everyone thinks Scott Podsednik is” in ranking him 16th and now I think he might just be the real Scott Podsednik. He is not Jacoby Ellsbury. Brett MAY be just as fast and while they may provide equivalent baserunning value, that’s about the only area where they are comparable. Instead of making him a standout defender, Brett’s speed helps him to be a good one due to his making his share of poor reads on the ball. In addition, at the plate, while Jacoby is never going to hit for much power, he has far more than Brett and that is going to help Jacoby’s skills translate to the major league level. Brett walks a good amount now, but major league pitchers are going to knock the bat out of his hands rather than walk him. He also strikes out way more than a player of his skill set should, but has made progress in that regard. Overall, Brett Gardner is REALLY fast and may one day use that to turn into a 5th OF or something, but that’s not enough.
Steven Jackson, RHP, 26 Jackson is a sinkerballer who gets his share of groundballs, but makes far too many mistakes, leading to an elevated home run rate. Outside of his sinker, 88-92, Jackson didn’t demonstrate much in the way of secondary pitches. He’s looking like a one pitch guy, which eliminates him from being a starter long term, and his one pitch isn’t dominant enough to make him a great reliever, at this point.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, 25 I really like Alberto Gonzalez. It was really tough for me cut a guy from the top 25 who I believe is a really good defender with a developing bat. For the Yankees he could be one of the league’s best backup infielders and on another club he may be a league average SS. I believe that whatever the Yankees did to Gonzalez when he was demoted to AA, it worked because he has been a very different player since then, making a huge cut in his K rate while upping his walk rate. This lasted through his AA time, his return to AAA, and is now carrying over in the winter leagues. Of course, if that improvement isn’t real he’s just a good glove who can’t hit and that’s not worth much.
Steven White, RHP, 27 White has a good fastball, in the low 90s, but it’s not a great fastball. He has decent, if inconsistent, secondary pitches. His control isn’t great. I think he could be Luis Vizcaino, a serviceable reliever, but not much else. He has no long term future starting.
Colin Curtis, OF, 23 Curtis looks like Brett Gardner without the speed. I wanted to believe there was more there last year, but it seems the scouts were correct in writing him off as a ‘tweener. He has time to change this evaluation, but it’s always scary when a guy who lacks power is promoted and proceeds to see good offensive numbers turn into terrible ones due to an increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks.
Chase Wright, LHP, 25 Wright has an average fastball and slightly above average change, but his control and command of all his non-change pitches leaves a lot to be desired. As a result, he is consistently behind in the count and this leads to predictable pitching sequences, which could one day lead to him doing something historic, like giving up a lot of homers in a row or something. The lack of command and control also makes Wright a less than ideal candidate for a bullpen role, so he doesn’t seem to have much of a big league future unless he can learn to command his very average stuff.
Kevin Whelan, RHP, 24 Thanks to a pretty good fastball and splitter combo, Whelan will always have supporters. Unfortunately, his control left him too frequently last year for him to put up the numbers he could/should have. I do wonder how his numbers would have looked if he were limited to just 1 innings more frequently. He’s a guy that I wouldn’t be surprised to see jump back on to the 25 next year.
*To Be Continued*
Monday, March 5, 2007
Spring Training Notes (3/5/07)
-Phil Hughes struggled in his first appearance of the Spring, but that’s not much of a worry. When a guy has the physical ability as well as performance track record of a Hughes, you don’t get worried because he does poorly his first time out in the Spring. He was obviously a bit nervous and that hurt him, as he wasn’t finishing on most of his pitches, leading to spotty control and poor break on his curveball.
-Jose Tabata seems to be in good shape. The difference between when I saw him last year and seeing him this year seems to be that last season he was built like a big kid and now he looks like an NFL running back. He solidified this opinion my going 1st to 3rd very quickly on A-Rod’s botched double in the first game of the Spring. This has eased some of my worry about his weight/development as I feel he might just be one of those stocky fast guys with a broad base of skills, a la Bobby Abreu. I was afraid he might have to be downgraded to a one-dimensional slugger, one of the primary reasons I didn’t grade him as a straight A on my Top 25. -Marcos Vechionacci looks like he’s beginning to grow into his body. He’s already gotten pretty big and he has plenty of room to get bigger. I was impressed by the way he pulled the ball on his first hit as that was something that he has struggled with in the past and I don’t think the less meaty Vechionacci that we saw last year would have been able to do the same thing. I think strength and leveraging that stretch as he gets bat to ball will be the most critical aspect of Marcos’ development this year. He has the plate discipline to succeed in Tampa; it is just a matter of improving the quality of his contact. -Ross Ohlendorf was very impressive in his first outing of the Spring. The Princeton product looked a lot like Wang and you have to assume that’s the projection the Yankees were making in acquiring him. He worked off of his 92-94 MPH sinker and had a very nice outing. Reports in the offseason made it seem as though his velocity on the pitch would be a tick lower than that, but I think this is about what should be expected. I think he’s going to have to refine his secondary pitches some more though because I’m not sure his sinker is of the quality of Wang’s, which is what allows Wang to get by with such a limited repertoire. -Steven Jackson got some work in today, but didn’t look very good at all. He was mainly 89-90 and it looked incredibly straight for a guy who is supposed to be a sinkerballer. He didn’t show much in the way of other pitches and got knocked around a bit as well. I’ve speculated on Jackson as a poor man’s Ohlendorf and Ohlendorf as a poor man’s Wang. The problem with this is that Wang, despite great performance thus far, does not have the greatest room for error. The more you downgrade the quality of Wang…the less enticing the pitching prospect. Hopefully that makes as much sense to you as it did in my head. -I love Tyler Clippard. I’m not going to pretend I’m without bias because the fact of the matter is that I’ve had a huge man crush on him since 2003 and every time Baseball America or someone else has questioned his ability, it has made my man crush larger. That said, I don’t think I’m out of line in saying that Clippard was terrific today. His much-maligned fastball was 89-92 and looked like it had solid movement on it. His changeup gave him the most trouble as there were a couple of times he didn’t finish on the pitch and it flew on him, most noticeably on the HBP. His curveball wasn’t thrown much, but he got his lone strikeout on it and would have had another strikeout in an earlier AB had the umpire not blown the call, so that pitch was working well. He also displayed what seemed to be a quick move to 1st. Overall, I would say Clippard did a good job of showing what he’s all about and why his future may not be as dull as some seem to anticipate. -As a result of injuries, Humberto Sanchez has not pitched any Spring innings. Is anyone surprised? I didn’t want to rate Sanchez ahead of Clippard during the offseason, but gave into everyone’s raving about his stuff. I’m beginning to regret that decision, but you know, small sample size and all. -The Run Fairy™ is alive and well. -Bronson Sardinha is Melky Cabrera with less discipline and, as a result, less ability to hit for average, but more power. He might be John Vander Wal.
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
My week old Randy Johnson post
The Yankees have traded Randy Johnson. I’ve never been the biggest fan of Mr. Johnson. I didn’t want him here and each time he pitched I hoped that he would go about 7 innings and give up 7 runs while the Yankees scored 10. He didn’t quite do that, though it seems he certainly tried to in 2006. Johnson wasn’t as spectacular as the Yankees probably felt he would be in dealing for him, nor was he as terrible as I wanted him to be. Instead, he was somewhere in the middle. His first year was pretty good and his second pretty poor, but no matter he was usually good for 6+ innings. As Barry Zito has proven this offseason, innings are important.
I am in no way saying that Randy Johnson is as dependable as Zito. He’s not as healthy and he’s not nearly as young. However, compared to the rest of the Yankee rotation, he might as well have been Zito. Wang will be coming off a season where he pitched about 70 more innings than he ever has in his life, Mike Mussina usually expires after 100 pitches, Kei Igawa is an unknown, Andy Pettitte is a wildcard. So, Randy Johnson with all his injury/age/health issues was probably still one of the more dependable Yankee starters going forward health-wise. As much as I don’t like him, it is tough to lose that.
As for what the Yankees got back, they can best be summarized as a bunch of C+ prospects and a replacement Scott Proctor. Vizcaino might be coming off a solid year in relief, but his performance record and/or stuff is not that of a reliever that you can be fairly certain will shut down the late innings for you. Steven Jackson seems to be of the Darrell Rasner/Jeff Karstens mold of guys you definitely trade if someone comes knocking with something useful. Alberto Gonzalez looks like he has a future as a utility infielder ahead of him. Ross Ohlendorf…is interesting.
Given the logjam of RHP in the organization, the Yankees may consider moving Ohlendorf to the bullpen. It would certainly be tempting to magically have a bullpen arm that can be counted on for 95+ fastballs on a regular basis. However, if left as a starter, Ohlendorf may still prove very valuable. At the moment, his secondary pitches are fringy. Of those offerings, his slider seems to show the most potential, as at times it has been a strikeout pitch. So, how is it that a starting pitcher with only one reliable pitch, in the upper minors, was able to author 182.2 innings of 3.25 ERA ball? Well, his first step was to not walk anyone, 1.4 per 9. His second step was to limit the long ball, .6 per 9. So while he didn’t strike out too many, 6.4 per 9, and allowed a less than ideal amount of hits, 9.2 per 9, he was ok. The pitch he accomplished all this with was a power sinker in the low 90s.
It remains to be seen how effective Chien-Ming Wang will be going forward. However, to this point he has been very effective for the Yankees. I have no doubt that the Yankees saw some of him in Ohlendorf, and they have every right to have made that connection. While the questionable secondary offerings and lack of huge strikeout numbers will keep him from ever having top pitching prospect billing, there is reason to believe that Ohlendorf may be more than meets the eye. Because of this, I feel the trade hinges on him. I will not rank him or anyone from the RJ trade in the current version of the top 25, but after I finish counting down, I will go back and attempt to place them.
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