Thursday, December 10, 2009
What Cost Granderson?
Following up on yesterday’s post about Curtis Granderson, here’s a look at what the Yankees gave up in Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke.
The key player in the package is probably Jackson, who was generally considered the Yankees' second best position player prospect and played in AAA last year. Jackson's a very good athlete who was signed out of a committment to play point guard at Georgia Tech.Although Jackson hit reasonably well this year for Scranton/WB (.300/.359/.406), a deeper look at his numbers could be a cause for concern. He struck out 130 times and needed a BABIP of .392 to hit that line. His BABIP in 2008 for Trenton was .346, and in 2007 it was .360. While it's possible his ability to get hits on balls in play has improved, it's doubtful that he could sustain a BABIP quite that high.
Jackson's power is also somewhat uninspiring, and probably the biggest reason I was somewhat concerned about how he'd do in the majors. Of course, that was a concern with Brett Gardner as well and at least in 2009 it was overblown.
Here's how CAIRO has Jackson projected for 2010.
| % | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 80% | 141 | 604 | 560 | 76 | 150 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 59 | 51 | 115 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 11 | .269 | .337 | .410 | 77 | 19 | .332 |
| 65% | 137 | 587 | 544 | 69 | 140 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 54 | 46 | 117 | 3 | 23 | 5 | 13 | .258 | .323 | .383 | 67 | 10 | .315 |
| Baseline | 135 | 575 | 533 | 64 | 132 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 120 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 14 | .247 | .309 | .355 | 57 | 1 | .298 |
| 35% | 128 | 546 | 507 | 57 | 120 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 37 | 120 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 12 | .236 | .292 | .332 | 48 | -5 | .280 |
| 20% | 121 | 518 | 480 | 50 | 108 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 32 | 118 | 2 | 14 | 3 | 10 | .225 | .274 | .309 | 39 | -11 | .262 |
| 2009 | 132 | 550 | 510 | 59 | 123 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 35 | 134 | 5 | 18 | 3 | 14 | .241 | .296 | .322 | 48 | -6 | .279 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Not a very inspiring range of projections. However, because of his age and his athleticism, Jackson almost certainly has the physical upside to make a big leap forward and blow away these projections.
If we forecast him through 2013 like we did with Granderson, here's how that looks.
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2010 | 22 | 575 | 533 | 64 | 132 | 21 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 42 | 120 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 14 | .247 | .309 | .355 | 57 | 1 | .298 |
| 2011 | 23 | 594 | 551 | 68 | 137 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 44 | 123 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 15 | .249 | .312 | .359 | 59 | 2 | .301 |
| 2012 | 24 | 607 | 563 | 70 | 142 | 25 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 124 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 15 | .252 | .316 | .361 | 63 | 4 | .304 |
| 2013 | 25 | 588 | 546 | 69 | 140 | 24 | 4 | 9 | 54 | 44 | 121 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 15 | .256 | .320 | .367 | 62 | 5 | .309 |
| Total | 2364 | 2193 | 271 | 551 | 95 | 17 | 37 | 213 | 176 | 488 | 16 | 76 | 24 | 59 | .251 | .314 | .360 | 242 | 13 | .303 |
If we run the same four year forecast but assume he hits his 80% projection in 2010, here's how it looks.
| Year | Age | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAR | wOBA |
| 2010 | 22 | 604 | 560 | 76 | 150 | 27 | 6 | 13 | 59 | 51 | 115 | 2 | 26 | 4 | 11 | .269 | .337 | .410 | 77 | 19 | .332 |
| 2011 | 23 | 606 | 562 | 73 | 145 | 26 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 120 | 3 | 20 | 5 | 14 | .258 | .324 | .383 | 68 | 9 | .316 |
| 2012 | 24 | 619 | 575 | 76 | 151 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 60 | 50 | 122 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 14 | .262 | .329 | .386 | 72 | 12 | .320 |
| 2013 | 25 | 602 | 559 | 75 | 149 | 28 | 5 | 11 | 59 | 49 | 119 | 3 | 21 | 5 | 13 | .267 | .335 | .397 | 73 | 14 | .327 |
| Total | 2431 | 2255 | 299 | 596 | 109 | 22 | 47 | 236 | 198 | 476 | 12 | 89 | 18 | 51 | .264 | .331 | .394 | 290 | 55 | .324 |
Again, I'll reiterate that Jackson almost definitely has the tools to exceed these projections, and I'll also mention that projection systems are inherently limited, even one as awesome as CAIRO.
Jackson supposedly has good speed, so he may also be able to derive more value from his defense and baserunning. If he can be a +5 defender in CF and a +5 baserunner, then he should be a better than replacement level option in CF.
A lot would have to break right for Jackson to end up being as valuable as Granderson projects to be though, and that's the key for the Yankees for the next four seasons.
Although Ian Kennedy didn't pitch well at all in 2008 and missed most of 2009 with an aneurysm and subsequent surgery, I am still somewhat bearish on him. I don't think his ceiling is much beyond third starter/league average, but that's a good thing to have. Hell, it just made Andy Pettitte $11.75M.
Here's how CAIRO saw Kennedy projecting as a Yankee.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 11 | 8 | 165 | 160 | 79 | 69 | 12 | 67 | 135 | 4.29 | 3.77 | 3.87 | 25.7 | 2.6 |
| 65% | 9 | 8 | 158 | 159 | 83 | 74 | 14 | 68 | 123 | 4.76 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 16.2 | 1.6 |
| Baseline | 8 | 9 | 150 | 158 | 88 | 78 | 15 | 69 | 112 | 5.28 | 4.68 | 4.52 | 6.8 | 0.7 |
| 35% | 7 | 8 | 135 | 148 | 83 | 74 | 15 | 66 | 96 | 5.56 | 4.94 | 4.85 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 20% | 6 | 8 | 120 | 136 | 78 | 69 | 15 | 62 | 81 | 5.84 | 5.21 | 5.18 | -2.1 | -0.2 |
| 2009 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.52 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
That's not an awful projection, but it's worse than either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain. It's also worse than the following mystery pitcher's projection.
| W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 8 | 8 | 150 | 145 | 84 | 77 | 17 | 66 | 124 | 5.04 | 4.64 | 4.43 | 10.8 | 1.1 |
This mystery pitcher is only two years older than IPK, and is on the Yankees already.
With Andy Pettitte back in the fold, and with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett at the top of the rotation, the Yankees ostensibly want to use Hughes and Chamberlain in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. That means Kennedy and the mystery pitcher would probably be pitching in long relief or the minors waiting for a break.
Because Chad Gaudin projects at the very least to be as good as Kennedy, and has experience working out of the bullpen, and also has relative youth on his side, I think he made Kennedy expendable. Obviously, if you lose more than one starter you start to get in the Igawa zone, but maybe the Yankees feel comfortable that they have enough depth with Gaudin, Aceves, Zach McAllister and others to take that risk.
Lastly, the Yankees also gave up Phil Coke. I like Coke and think he'll be a useful lefty reliever, but he's an extreme fly ball pitcher who will give up a good amount of HRs, especially in DNYS.
Here are Coke's CAIRO projections for 2010.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 5 | 3 | 66 | 57 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 22 | 53 | 3.90 | 3.62 | 3.76 | 9.6 | 1.0 |
| 65% | 4 | 3 | 63 | 59 | 32 | 29 | 7 | 23 | 47 | 4.51 | 4.20 | 4.31 | 4.9 | 0.5 |
| Baseline | 3 | 3 | 60 | 60 | 35 | 32 | 8 | 25 | 42 | 5.18 | 4.84 | 4.86 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 35% | 3 | 3 | 54 | 57 | 34 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 35 | 5.62 | 5.27 | 5.40 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 20% | 2 | 3 | 48 | 54 | 32 | 30 | 8 | 24 | 28 | 6.06 | 5.69 | 5.95 | -4.5 | -0.5 |
As a situational lefty reliever, Coke's a tactical option whose value is not necessarily going to be properly reflected in a normal runs saved above average/replacement level scale, but it doesn't seem like he's necessarily a big loss. Especially with Damaso Marte around. The Yankees also seem to like Michael Dunn a lot, although unless he makes a quantum leap forward with his command I don't think he's an option.
I also wouldn't be shocked if the Yankees made a play for Mike Gonzalez in a quest to rebuild the 2006 Pirates bullpen if they decided to bid on a Type A free agent for LF/DH, which would mean it wouldn't cost them a first round pick to go after Gonzalez.
I think too many people get hung up on the notion of "winning" a trade, and feel any trade that's not clearly an obvious win by their team's GM is a bad one. It shouldn't be that cut and dried though. A good trade should make sense on all sides and help all teams, and I think this trade does that for both the Tigers and the Yanks. The Dbacks, I'm not so sure...
Update: As requested, here's Kennedy's four year forecast if he hits his baseline projection in 2010.
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 150 | 158 | 88 | 78 | 15 | 69 | 112 | 5.28 | 4.68 | 4.40 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | 26 | 9 | 10 | 174 | 181 | 103 | 92 | 17 | 82 | 130 | 5.34 | 4.76 | 4.45 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2012 | 27 | 10 | 12 | 194 | 203 | 117 | 104 | 20 | 92 | 142 | 5.42 | 4.84 | 4.51 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 2013 | 28 | 11 | 12 | 210 | 221 | 123 | 110 | 21 | 99 | 152 | 5.27 | 4.69 | 4.47 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
And if he hit his 80% projection in 2010, his going-forward forecast would look more like this.
| Year | Age | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 2010 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 165 | 160 | 79 | 69 | 12 | 67 | 135 | 4.29 | 3.77 | 3.76 | 22.2 | 2.2 |
| 2011 | 26 | 11 | 9 | 190 | 183 | 93 | 83 | 14 | 79 | 154 | 4.42 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 22.8 | 2.3 |
| 2012 | 27 | 13 | 10 | 212 | 205 | 106 | 94 | 16 | 90 | 169 | 4.48 | 3.98 | 3.90 | 24.0 | 2.4 |
| 2013 | 28 | 14 | 11 | 230 | 224 | 111 | 98 | 17 | 96 | 181 | 4.34 | 3.85 | 3.87 | 29.5 | 3.0 |
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
MLB Trade Rumors: Agreement Reached In Yanks, Tigers, D’Backs Blockbuster
12:48pm: Heyman tweets that an agreement has been reached, with only medicals pending. We’ll do a fresh post once this trade is official. To reiterate: the Yankees get Curtis Granderson, the D’Backs get Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, and the Tigers get Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke.
I guess this is our new winter meeting thread. If/when the trade becomes official I’ll take a detailed look at it, including the requested three year forecasts for Granderson and Austin Jackson. My gut thinks this is a good trade for the Yankees though.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Yankees.com: Momentum mounting
The Yanks clinched a series win despite being short-handed, clearly not satisfied with simply clinching a playoff spot one game prior. Against an Angels club that’s given them fits in the past—and that is a potential postseason opponent—the Bombers got key two-out hits from Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera.
Yes. Cano got a hit. With runners in scoring position. AND two outs. Incidentally, the earth is flat.
The win was nice, but more importantly, A.J. Burnett followed up a good start against a mediocre Seattle offense with another decent one against arguably the second best offense in the AL, although they were short one fearsome DH today. Burnett’s stuff looked as sharp today as it has all year IMO. His fastball was clocked as high as 98mph according to Gameday and his hook was nasty.
It was also nice to see Ian Kennedy’s return to the bigs for a scary but effective inning in the eighth. It’s been a lost season for IPK but it’s good to see him past his health problems and hopefully primed to contribute next season.
The Yankees magic number for both the division and HFA is down to five, and they head home for an off day before hosting Boston for a three game series. The absolute worst case scenario for that series has Boston arriving in New York with a record of 91-61, compared to the Yanks at 97-56. Even if Boston sweeps, they’d still be two games back in the loss column and would have to go 6-1 to tie the Yankees if the Yankees can just go 3-3 over their last six games.
Of course KC could help make that scenario even more implausible by stealing one or both of the next two games, so go Royals.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Hughes, Aceves and IPK
The odds of each of the Yankees’ starting five making the post for all their games this season are slim, so here’s a look at the guys backing them up, Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves and Ian Kennedy.
2008| phil hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 104 | 103 | 53 | 49 | 12 | 41 | 90 | 4.24 | 4.15 | 3 | 13 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 96 | 90 | 50 | 46 | 10 | 35 | 77 | 4.31 | 4.04 | 2 | 12 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 152 | 146 | 82 | 75 | 16 | 65 | 129 | 4.42 | 4.17 | 1 | 17 |
| 2008 zips projection | 141 | 136 | 63 | 58 | 13 | 40 | 106 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 13 | 27 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 78 | 71 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 25 | 61 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 6 | 14 |
| 2008 average projection | 114 | 109 | 56 | 52 | 12 | 41 | 93 | 4.10 | 3.98 | 5 | 17 |
| 2008 actual totals | 70 | 80 | 40 | 38 | 5 | 26 | 60 | 4.86 | 3.53 | -3 | 4 |
| difference | -44 | 143% | 97% | 105% | 0.77 | -0.45 | -8 | -12 |
I've included the MLEs(major league equivalencies) for these players in their 2008 actual totals. After a reasonably successful MLB debut in 2007, big things were expected for Phil Hughes in 2008. He broke camp as one the Yankees' five starters and pitched pretty well in his first start of the year, allowing two earned runs over 6 innings in a 3-2 win over Toronto. Unfortunately, that was the high point of Hughes's season until September as he struggled with his effectiveness and then injury. Hughes's final major league line had him putting up a 6.62 ERA and allowing 4.6 runs more than a replacement level pitcher. The good news is his FIP was a respectable 4.32.
| ian kennedy | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 92 | 92 | 50 | 46 | 11 | 44 | 82 | 4.50 | 4.41 | 0 | 9 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 69 | 66 | 34 | 30 | 7 | 26 | 53 | 3.91 | 4.11 | 5 | 11 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 141 | 129 | 72 | 66 | 16 | 68 | 120 | 4.24 | 4.42 | 4 | 18 |
| 2008 zips projection | 148 | 158 | 79 | 72 | 16 | 42 | 94 | 4.38 | 4.19 | 2 | 17 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 46 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 34 | 4.50 | 4.53 | 0 | 5 |
| 2008 average projection | 99 | 98 | 52 | 47 | 11 | 40 | 77 | 4.31 | 4.33 | 2 | 12 |
| 2008 actual totals | 111 | 106 | 65 | 62 | 9 | 48 | 90 | 5.03 | 3.93 | -6 | 5 |
| difference | 12 | 141% | 92% | 104% | 0.72 | -0.40 | -9 | -7 |
Although not as highly regarded as Hughes as a prospect, Kennedy had high expectations borne out of his successful professional debut in 2007. Kennedy was awful in the majors, putting up an ERA of 8.16(albeit with a 5.44 FIP) and allowing 12 runs more than a replacement level pitcher over 39.2 innings.
| alfredo aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 actual totals | 164 | 165 | 76 | 72 | 16 | 73 | 123 | 3.95 | 4.30 | 10 | 26 |
Alfredo Aceves came out of nowhere in 2008, as proven by the fact that no projection system forecast him. He's not young, but put up a solid year across three levels of the minors before debuting effectively in the majors.
Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
2009
| phil hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 82 | 84 | 42 | 39 | 9 | 31 | 68 | 4.28 | 4.10 | 2 | 10 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 84 | 83 | 46 | 43 | 9 | 32 | 65 | 4.61 | 4.19 | -1 | 7 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 85 | 88 | 49 | 45 | 9 | 34 | 67 | 4.74 | 4.27 | -2 | 6 |
| 2009 tht projection | 107 | 105 | 55 | 51 | 12 | 41 | 82 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 3 | 13 |
| 2009 zips projection | 59 | 61 | 30 | 28 | 4 | 23 | 42 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 2 | 7 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 106 | 110 | 57 | 54 | 10 | 35 | 81 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 0 | 10 |
| 2009 average projection | 87 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 9 | 33 | 67 | 4.45 | 4.10 | 0 | 9 |
| phil hughes cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 117 | 109 | 54 | 51 | 8 | 32 | 99 | 3.91 | 3.21 | 8 | 19 |
| 65% | 112 | 110 | 56 | 52 | 9 | 34 | 89 | 4.22 | 3.58 | 3 | 15 |
| Baseline | 106 | 110 | 57 | 54 | 10 | 35 | 81 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 0 | 10 |
| 35% | 96 | 103 | 55 | 51 | 11 | 34 | 69 | 4.84 | 4.31 | -4 | 6 |
| 20% | 85 | 96 | 52 | 49 | 11 | 33 | 57 | 5.15 | 4.67 | -6 | 2 |
Hughes will begin 2009 in the Scranton/WB rotation waiting for an opportunity to come up to the majors. Hughes is still very young, but this will be an important season for him. The projection systems like him to be right around average as far as his value, but with a better than average FIP which indicates they still believe in his upside. I'd love to see Hughes hit his 80% forecast this season, but right now I'd probably settle for him staying healthy all season.
| ian kennedy | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 100 | 101 | 53 | 49 | 12 | 43 | 83 | 4.41 | 4.39 | 1 | 11 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 79 | 81 | 47 | 44 | 8 | 35 | 59 | 5.01 | 4.35 | -5 | 3 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 137 | 138 | 78 | 72 | 16 | 62 | 108 | 4.71 | 4.52 | -3 | 11 |
| 2009 tht projection | 128 | 123 | 71 | 66 | 17 | 57 | 101 | 4.63 | 4.68 | -2 | 11 |
| 2009 zips projection | 128 | 131 | 70 | 65 | 13 | 57 | 94 | 4.57 | 4.39 | -1 | 12 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 140 | 149 | 83 | 75 | 18 | 46 | 95 | 4.84 | 4.48 | -5 | 9 |
| 2009 average projection | 119 | 121 | 67 | 62 | 14 | 50 | 90 | 4.70 | 4.47 | -3 | 9 |
| ian kennedy cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 154 | 151 | 82 | 73 | 15 | 44 | 115 | 4.28 | 3.80 | 4 | 19 |
| 65% | 147 | 151 | 83 | 75 | 16 | 45 | 105 | 4.56 | 4.14 | -1 | 14 |
| Baseline | 140 | 149 | 83 | 75 | 18 | 46 | 95 | 4.84 | 4.48 | -5 | 9 |
| 35% | 126 | 140 | 79 | 72 | 18 | 45 | 81 | 5.12 | 4.82 | -9 | 4 |
| 20% | 112 | 129 | 74 | 67 | 18 | 43 | 68 | 5.40 | 5.15 | -11 | 0 |
Let's trade ____ and Kennedy for someone awesome! If I have to read that crap any more this season I'm going to throw my computer out the window. The people who want to dump Kennedy while still thinking other teams will give up something of value for him are delusional. Here's what we know about Kennedy. He was drafted with the knowledge that he didn't have a super-high ceiling. He's been dominant in the minors as far as his ERA, but his translated BB rate is a concern for me (97 BB in 213.2 minor league innings when translated to MLEs over 2007-2008, roughly 4.1 per 9). Until he can get his control in line, he will struggle at the major league level. There have been plenty of pitchers with similar or less stuff that have been successful in the majors.
| alfredo aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 100 | 112 | 59 | 55 | 15 | 34 | 65 | 4.95 | 4.87 | -5 | 5 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 63 | 61 | 29 | 27 | 7 | 23 | 44 | 3.86 | 4.34 | 5 | 11 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 106 | 119 | 64 | 59 | 15 | 36 | 65 | 5.03 | 4.84 | -6 | 4 |
| 2009 zips projection | 147 | 172 | 92 | 85 | 25 | 40 | 77 | 5.19 | 5.18 | -11 | 3 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 170 | 175 | 98 | 91 | 24 | 24 | 91 | 4.83 | 4.37 | -6 | 11 |
| 2009 average projection | 117 | 127 | 67 | 62 | 17 | 34 | 71 | 4.77 | 4.72 | -4 | 8 |
| alfredo aceves cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 187 | 178 | 97 | 90 | 21 | 21 | 110 | 4.32 | 3.80 | 4 | 22 |
| 65% | 178 | 177 | 98 | 91 | 22 | 23 | 100 | 4.58 | 4.09 | -2 | 16 |
| Baseline | 170 | 175 | 98 | 91 | 24 | 24 | 91 | 4.83 | 4.37 | -6 | 11 |
| 35% | 153 | 164 | 93 | 86 | 24 | 24 | 77 | 5.08 | 4.66 | -10 | 5 |
| 20% | 136 | 151 | 86 | 81 | 23 | 23 | 65 | 5.33 | 4.95 | -13 | 1 |
Aceves doesn't appear to have a ton of upside, but he looks like he should slot in a little below average if he meets his base projections. He doesn't have superior stuff, but he's not a soft-tosser either. That's not bad for your ostensible 7/8 starter.
Value
I didn't bother with the value charts here because a) we have no idea how often any of these guys will pitch and b) they're all still under team control and not arbitration-eligible yet.
Conclusion
With the very realistic odds of A.J. Burnett missing time as well as the innings limit that will be imposed on Joba Chamberlain, as well as the high probability that some of the other pitchers on the staff will miss time, there's a very good chances that the Yankees will be relying on this trio of pitchers at some point in 2009. On paper, that doesn't seem like a bad thing, but then again, it didn't seem like a bad thing entering 2008 to have Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation. Hughes had a strong spring, thinking in terms of how he looked rather than putting any weight on his stats, and that bodes well for 2009 I think. He should be first in line when reinforcements are needed. Aceves and Kennedy essentially project equivalently, so the Yankees will likely go to whichever one is pitching better at the time if the need arises.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Newsday: Fighting for Yanks’ job, Veras won’t play in WBC
DUNEDIN, Fla. - Jose Veras got a call from an official from Team Dominican Republic Tuesday night informing him that the team had plans to use him in their bullpen. But the 28-year-old reliever won’t be competing in the World Baseball Classic, which has teammates Robinson Cano, Damaso Marte and Alex Rodriguez. Edwar Ramirez also has decided not to play.
Veras believes it’s more important for him to stay with the Yankees during spring training and compete for job in the bullpen. “I don’t have a spot, so I’m going to have to fight for a spot,” he said yesterday. “I’m a rookie guy, young guy trying for one of the spots here with the Yankees. I don’t think if I leave for 20 days that it’s going to be possible to have a spot.”
I’ve been thinking about the Yankee pen recently. If we assume that Mo and Marte are locks, and that the Yankees will carry 11 or 12 pitchers, that leaves four or five spots open for competition. Looking at the 40 man roster, that gives them the following candidates:
Likely
Brian Bruney
Jose Veras
On the bubble
Alfredo Aceves
Jonathan Albaladejo
Phil Coke
Dan Giese
Edwar Ramirez
David Robertson
Not likely
Andrew Brackman
Anthony Claggett
Wilkin De La Rosa
Michael Dunn
Christian Garcia
Eric Hacker
Steven Jackson
Humberto Sanchez
Mark Melancon and J.B. Cox are not on the 40 man roster but may also merit consideration. I doubt either breaks camp in the majors though. I also don’t see any reason that Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy wouldn’t start the year in SWB.
I’d guess roster status with options and waivers will influence the decision process somewhat. My guess is they take Bruney and Veras for sure, then two or three of Albaladejo, Coke, Giese, Ramirez and Robertson. But they should have good flexibility to cover for injuries and fatigue this season.
BTW, my apologies for the lack of real content recently. Work issues and personal issues are cutting into my blogging time.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Yankees.com: Big signings affecting Pettitte’s return
Though the Yankees have not pulled their offer, they may be preparing for life without Pettitte, who has been advised not to accept such a dramatic pay cut from the $16 million he earned in each of the last two seasons.
Citing a source, Newsday reported that the Yankees felt comfortable with their offseason spending and the roster as comprised. Nothing has been finalized, but the Yankees are reportedly leaning toward not re-signing Pettitte. The New York Post characterized the chances of retaining Pettitte as “doubtful.”
“Right now it’s doubtful on Pettitte, given where we are financially with this stuff,” a Yankees official told the Post. “But things change, especially here, if Hank and Hal [Steinbrenner] decide to do something.”
Pettitte may seem like a luxury, but is that really the case?
Pettitte projects to pitch 210 innings and save 22 runs above replacement according to CAIRO.
Replacing Pettitte’s innings with 150 innings of Phil Hughes and 60 innings of Ian Kennedy project to be only a two run shortfall, although young pitchers are notoriously difficult to project so there’s a fair amount of risk in that approach.
Hughes hasn’t demonstrated enough durability to automatically pencil him in for 150 innings, so if we give him 100 innings and Kennedy 110, it’s a four run shortfall.
Let’s say A.J. Burnett gets hurt and only pitches 100 innings, moving Hughes up the depth chart and requiring 150 innings of Kennedy and 60 innings of Alfredo Aceves. Now we’re down nine runs.
You can see the effect as we move down the depth chart, ending up with Phil Coke and Dan Giese starting, both of whom CAIRO projects as around replacement level.
In a nutshell, the Yankees can weather an injury or two even if they don’t bring back Pettitte IF Hughes/IPK can pitch to their projections, but anything more than that starts to hurt them in the area of one to two wins.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
If the 2009 Season Started On November 16, 2008
It’d be pretty damn cold for baseball, but I thought it would be interesting to look at how the Yankees project right now, prior to any free agent signings. So here are the CAIRO projections for the presumed starting nine and for the pitching staff.
BR: Raw batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement
RS: Runs saved defensively at listed position
WAR: Wins above replacement level
For now the bench is set to replacement level, although that could change. The playing time for the starting nine is probably a little optimistic, but the offseason is the time for optimism, right?
So as presently constituted, the Yankees look like a team that should score around 830 runs next season if they don’t add any more offense. They also look to be about a win below average defensively, which is much better than last season. Brett Gardner’s defensive projection is probably too generous, but that could be countered by Nick Swisher’s 1B defense if the scouting reports are more accurate than his zone rating. Melky Cabrera and Gardner are basically projected to be worth the same in total, so swapping one with the other shouldn’t make a ton of difference on virtual paper.
The offense may very likely not change this offseason, but the pitching will very likely change quite a bit.
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level pitcher
WAR: Wins above replacement level
I am trying to be pessimistic with the pitching staff on purpose, so I’m using the players’ projected innings rather than adjusting for 2009 expectations (ie, Joba pitching 117 innings instead of around 140). As a squad, the Yankees look to allow around 760 runs with the pitching staff as currently constituted. Obviously, more innings by Chamberlain, Wang and Hughes could fix that somewhat. The releiver numbers aren’t adjusted for leverage, so that’s another area where they could see a little boost. The current Yankee defense is already included in the pitcher projections, so we don’t need to add the below-average defense projection in.
A team that would score 828 runs and allow 761 would have a PythagenPat winning percentage of .540, which is equivalent to an 88 win team. If you add C.C. Sabathia and his projected 229 innings to the mix, taking away Kei Igawa and reducing Aceves’s and Kennedy’s innings, this is how the staff would look.
With the same offense, that’s a 93 win PythagenPat team, although given the strength of the AL East, we would probably want to knock that down by a few wins.
We can play the ‘what if they sign _____?’ game now, so if you’d like to get a feel for how much adding certain players would be worth, ask in the comments.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Relief Pitching Edition)
After looking at a bunch of underperformance, there was one bright spot in the 2008 Yankees’ season, the bullpen. Like with the starters, I’m just going to look at the optimistic scenario from the pitching projection entry back in March.
Mariano F’ing Rivera
FR: FIP converted to runs allowed
FIP: Fielding independent-pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher.
Mariano Rivera is awesome. Mo rebounded from what looked like the start of his decline to put up what was arguably the best season of his career, at least on a rate basis. How dominant was Rivera?
It was only the second season EVER where a pitcher pitched 60 or more innings and had a WHIP less than 0.675.
It was only the second season EVER where a pitcher pitched 60 or more innings and had a K/BB ratio greater than 12.
Opponents hit .165/.190/.233 against him.
It was the third lowest OPS+ ever allowed by a pitcher who pitched at least 60 innings.
Rivera passed 1000 innings pitched this year, putting him on the top of Baseball Reference’s ERA+ career leaderboard. No pitcher has ever prevented runs relative to his era and ballpark better than Rivera has.
So yeah, Mo’s pretty good. And he did all this with bone spurs in his throwing shoulder. We are fortunate to have watched him.
Rivera’s season was 14 runs better than projected.
Joba Chamberlain
Somewhere, Mike Francessa is sighing wistfully about Joba the reliever. Joba did pretty well in the pen again in 2008, although he was more valuable as a starter. I am hoping that Chamberlain will start 2009 in the rotation, even if it takes some juggling to keep his innings down, and early offseason talk is that Joba will start exclusively in 2009.
Chamberlain was about 4 runs better than projected to be in relief, partially because he pitched 5 more innings than expected out of the pen.
The Farns
Raise your hand if you miss the Farns. While his ERA was respectable during his 2008 Yankee stint, his HR rate led to a very frightening FIP. Although the Ivan Rodriguez trade didn’t really work out, the Yankees sold Farns at the right time. Still, he saved a couple of runs more than projected. He’s a free agent this year, maybe the Yankees should re-sign him. NOT!
The Hawk
So we were 3-3 with guys exceeding expectations, but LaTroy Hawkins breaks the string. He seems like a good guy but his Yankee stint was disappointing. He was 7 runs worse than expected before being traded to Houston, where he ripped up AAAA.
Chris Britton
Britton’s probably begging for a trade at this point. He projected decently but didn’t get much work, and when he did he didn’t do much with it, ending the year at 4 runs worse than projected. I’d be surprised to see him on the Yankees in 2009.
Brian Bruney
Bruney was very effective in 2008, although his peripherals indicate a fair bit of luck. His walk rate is still pretty high, but his stuff is dominant. He was throwing a 90 mph slider at the end of the year. He missed a good chunk of the year with a foot injury, but was quite good on both sides of that. He saved 10 runs more than expected. I wouldn’t expect him to be quite this good next year, but I think his FIP is a reasonable expectation for what he may do, an ERA in the mid 3s.
Edwar Ramirez
Despite what some beat writers will tell you, Edwar Ramirez had a pretty good year. Yeah, he’s HR prone, but that’s really his only major weakness, although I guess I’d like to see him walk fewer people too. I wouldn’t necessarily trust him to be a setup man right now, but he was a good solid arm to have in the middle of the pen and should be next year as well. Edwar pitched more than I expected him to and did pretty well, saving 4 runs above his projections.
Ross Ohlendorf
Gone and not really missed. The Yankees have a bunch of guys who profile better on the way. Ohlendorf has good stuff, but it didn’t translate to the field as he got hammered in the bigs, allowing 9 runs more than his relief projection. He didn’t do much better in Pittsburgh, matching his 66 ERA+, although that came as a starter.
The Others
I didn’t include any of these guys in my original projections so they get lumped together here. Jose Veras had a surprisingly good start to the season before faltering over the last month.
May 3 - Aug 24
IP: 46.7
H: 38
R: 14
ER: 14
HR: 6
BB: 17
K: 50
ERA: 2.70
FIP: 3.82
xFIP: 3.68
tRA: 4.45
His peripherals indicated that he was probably lucky to have an ERA of 2.70, and sure enough a correction came.
Aug 27 - Sep 28
IP: 11.3
H: 16
R: 9
ER: 9
HR: 1
BB: 12
K: 14
ERA: 7.15
FIP: 5.05
xFIP: 5.55
tRA: 5.51
I’m still skeptical about Veras because his command is still not very good. I do think he can be a useful middle inning reliever, although I’d probably peg him as a true talent 4.50 ERA guy, not the 3.64 ERA guy he was this year.
Phil Coke is a bad-ass. I wouldn’t read too much into the results of 14.7 innings, but he just looks like he’s got the goods to be a strong lefty reliever. In his last outing of the year he was hitting 96 mph. I’d still probably try him out as a starter first though, with the bullpen as a fall-back if that doesn’t work.
Dan Giese is probably a decent depth guy to have as a fifth starter or long reliever, and he had a pretty good season, although I don’t see the Yankees keeping a spot on the roster open for him to start 2009.
Alfredo Aceves impressed after his callup, although his FIP says we should expect him to not be quite so good. Still, I liked what I saw from him in his limited time and think he could be average or slightly below as a swingman.
Damaso Marte did not impress in 2008 as a Yankee, although his FIP is encouraging. His option isn’t cheap, and he’s a type A free agent, so the Yankees may think long and hard about picking up his option. If I had to guess, they will eventually do so. He’ll still be a Type A free agent next season, and he buys the Yankees more time to sift through the kids. He could also be traded mid-season for prospects like Jeff Karstens.
David Robertson’s ERA isn’t pretty, but really, he pitched pretty well in the majors for the most part. A 3.60 FIP is very good for a young relief prospect, and 5 of the 18 runs he gave up came in one brutal outing. Take that outing out of his line, and his ERA falls to 3.90. And I know you can play that game with almost anyone, but it makes me feel better.
I won’t run through the rest, but overall, even the non-projected relievers pitched pretty well, putting up a 4.11 ERA and saving 17 runs above replacement.
Here’s what the final tally for the bullpen looks like.
If you wanted to draw one positive from this year’s Yankees, the emergence of the bullpen has to be it. While the bulk of the credit for that has to go to the pitchers, Joe Girardi also deserves some credit. For the most part he seemed to spread the work around (although I think Jose Veras may be Spanish for Scott Proctor), and the bulk of the pen was effective because of it. They were collectively 64 runs better than replacement level, or 31 runs better than projected. Take away Hawkins, Ohlendorf and Traber since they’re no longer on the team and they would have saved 79 runs above replacement level. While we have to rationally expect Mo to give back some of his 2008 value and Joba to not be in the pen (hopefully), there’s enough good depth here to make the bullpen a strength again in 2009.
The even better part is, there’s more potential help on the way in Jonathan Albaladejo, Humberto Sanchez, and Mark Melancon.
So we should change the title of this entry, because the relief pitching had nothing to do with the disappointment. In fact, if you factor in leverage, they may have been the difference between this being an 81 win team or an 89 win team.
Looking at the final numbers, we have an offense that underperformed by 141 runs, a defense that underperformed by 18 runs, a starting rotation that underperformed by 30 runs, and a bullpen that overperformed by 31 runs. We probably shouldn’t separate out the defense from the pitching since that would double-count it, so we basically have a team that had a run differential 140 runs worse than expected. Adding those 140 runs to the Yankees’ Pythagenpat wins (87) and re-calculating Pythagenpat would have made them a 100 win team. Factor in their strength of schedule, and you end up right around the optimistic projection of 97 wins.
So as long as the Yankees fix the offense, defense and starting rotation for 2009, they should be fine.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Starting Pitching Edition)
Although Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy disappointed this season, overall the pitching staff was not nearly the biggest problem on the team. Projecting pitching kind of sucks, so when I wrote this entry back in March, I looked at two different scenarios. Scenario 1 was more optimistic about pitcher health, Scenario 2 added in more missed time and more scrub time, although I had no idea that the Yanks would go back to Snacks at some point.
For the player comparisons I’m going to use the optimistic scenarios, then at the end I’ll also look at the pessimistic one on a team-wide level. I decided to break the pitching up by starters and relievers, so here’s the starting pitching part.
Scenario 1
FR: FIP converted to runs allowed
FIP: Fielding independent-pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher.
I think a lot of us took Chien-Ming Wang for granted. No, he’s not as good as C.C. Sabathia or Johan Santana. News flash, hardly anyone is. Is he an ace? Well, he’s one of the top 30 starters in baseball. Whether that makes him an ace or not is open to interpretation I suppose.
Wang pitched right around where he was projected to, rate-wise. The problem is he got hurt and only pitched 95 innings, which cost the Yankees 13 runs. Thankfully it’s not an arm injury and Wang should be back at full strength next year. If you are wondering how the Yankees are going to move from 89 wins to 95 or so, here’s one of those missing wins(hopefully).
Thanks to a dreadful end to his season, it’s easy to forget that Pettite pitched well for a large part of 2008. Through July 26 he had an ERA of 3.76. It didn’t appear to be a fluke, as his FIP was 3.68 and his xFIP was 3.58 through that point.
Then, the wheels seemed to come off over his last 12 games, as Pettitte gave up 50 runs in 71 innings, an RA of 6.34. Interestingly, his FIP was only 3.72 and his xFIP was only 4.03 over this stretch. He just gave up a lot more hits on balls in play. This period coincided with a reported sore shoulder, so it’s possible Pettitte still has something left in the tank. I’m still not sure if I’d bring him back or not, although a lot of that depends on if Mike Mussina retires. Anyhoo, Pettitte was about six runs worse than expected.
Phil Hughes’s 2008 probably could have gone a little better. Instead of 160 good innings, the Yankees got 34 mostly awful ones. Hughes suffered a rib injury early in the year that supposedly affected his mechanics. When it got diagnosed it led to him being shelved for most of the year, although he ended the season on a positive note with eight innings of two run ball against Toronto in his last start of the year. Hughes was a 25 run disappointment compared to his projection.
As disappointing as Hughes was, Ian Kennedy was worse. Like Hughes, Kennedy failed to win a start. Unlike Hughes, his peripherals don’t show much promise, and he never really had Hughes’s ceiling. While his minor league track record is impressive, I have a feeling the Yankees have soured on Kennedy and there’s a very good chance that if he makes an impact in MLB it’ll be in another uniform. Kennedy was 29 runs worse than expectations.
After a whole bunch of disappointments comes one of the two best stories of the Yankee season IMO. Mike Mussina had a horrible 2007, putting up an ERA of 5.15 and for all intents and purposes he looked like he was cooked. When he started the year 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA, it seemed like just a matter of time before he was going to be out of the rotation. Some dolt even wrote a blog entry about it.
A funny thing happened though. Moose won his next five starts, putting up an ERA of 2.76 and saving his spot in the rotation. From there, he finished the year by going 14-6 with a 3.17 ERA, culminating in his 20th win of the season on the season’s final day. Most of us know that win/loss records are not really a good indicator of a pitcher’s skill since it’s so heavily dependent on run support, but we do know that Moose was great. Instead of being worth 10 runs above replacement, he was worth 40.
I don’t know if Moose is going to retire. I’d love to have him back for another season, even though I’d expect him to decline a bit next year.
Unlike Hughes and Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain kicked ass as a starter. Unfortunately, he came up with tendinitis in Texas and that cost him about a month. When he came back he went back to the bullpen since the Yankees felt he wouldn’t be able to stretched back out into a starter in time. This gave the ‘Joba should pitch teh eight’ clowns more ammunition for their silly battle, but the good news is that Joba wants to start, Joe Girardi wants him to start, and Brian Cashman wants him to start. Anyone with a brain should understand that 200 innings of Joba as a starter is more valuable than 80 innings of Joba as a reliever, even if you factor in leverage.
Oops, I went off on a tangent. Since we only had one season of data to project Joba in 2008, his projection was pretty conservative. Despite pitching 35 fewer starter innings than expected, he was four runs better than projected.
Since we’re looking at the optimistic scenario, I don’t really have anything to compare every one else who started this year with, but here’s how they did collectively.
Update: Fixed the two charts below.
And here’s how it all looks in terms of RSAR (assuming replacement level for all non-projected pitchers)
So we have the starters collectively being worth 67 - 6 RSAR, a total of 61. The optimistic projection had the Yankees’ starters giving up 498 runs, and the pessimistic had them giving up 518 runs. Yankee starters actually gave up 528 runs. So overall, the difference between the optimistic projection of the starting pitching and what actually happened is -30 runs, and between the pessimistic projection and what actually happened it’s -10 runs. I guess I need to be more pessimistic next year.
One last thing, if you look at the ERA compared to FIP for the Yankee starters, you’ll see a fairly significant difference, on the order of around 60 runs. FIP regresses BABIP to average (aka, an average defense), so this ties into the -40 defense the Yankees played this year. There’s still a 20 run difference, which is most likely an issue with hit location. According to the team stats page at the Hardball Times, the Yankees didn’t give up a higher percentage of line drives than the average team.
So you can add starting pitching to the 2008 Yankees’ list of underperformances, although it’s not nearly as much to blame as the offense is. That won’t stop some people from blaming Hughes/Kennedy and the non-Santana trade of course…
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Blogs.NYPost.com: Sherman - 3 UP: Joba, Giambi/Abreu and Epstein
The Yankees are strongly weighing sending Joba Chamberlain to some form of extra pitching—likely either the Arizona Fall League or the Instructional League—as a way to further build his inning load this season to better prepare him to start in 2009, Hardball has learned.
The Yanks already have determined they will have Phil Hughes go to the AFL and are leaning toward doing the same with Ian Kennedy. But the most interesting case, as always around the Yanks, belongs to Chamberlain and his valuable right arm.
Batting Runs Above Average Using Run Expectancy
My post about contextualizing linear weights got linked over at The Book Blog, which led to a new discovery for me. Fangraphs, which is really a wonderful site for stat dorks, tracks a version of batting runs above average that is not context-neutral. Instead, they use the difference in run expectancy before and after every plate appearance or batters faced. The full glossary definition is here, but here’s the heart of it.
BRAA (batting runs above average): BRAA is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.
What I like about this is it adds the out state to the base states I was using, and it includes pitchers, and it doesn’t give different weights based on innings or scores. Basically, you look at what an average player adds to his team on each specific play for each of the 24 base/out states, then you compare that to what each player actually does.
Since it includes pitchers we can do direct comparisons of everyone on the team and see how they’ve stacked up this year as well.
Here’s the offense.
Here are the starting pitchers.
Here are the relievers.
And here’s everyone.
These numbers are not position-adjusted, so you may want to account for that. Here are my 2008 AL position adjustments based on 650 PAs.
C 10
1B -5
2B 0
3B 0
SS 12
LF -4
CF -3
RF -6
DH -6
So you’d subtract around 5 runs from Giambi’s value, you’d add around 12 to Jeter’s (pro-rated). Here’s how the overall chart looks if we position-adjust for the offensive players.
These numbers are against average, not replacement level. Also as a reminder, a measure like this is not necessarily supposed to be predictive, it’s retroactive.
This says that in total, the Yankees have been about four wins better than average including everything except baserunning and defense, although I think the bulk of defense is included in the pitchers’ BRAA. An average team over 151 games would be 76-75 or so, and the Yankees are 80-71, or four games better than average.
Update(s):
As requested by DaPuj, I’ve added the context neutral batting runs above average for the position players to the overall Yankee chart.
And here’s the top 25 in the AL for contextualized, position adjusted BRAA for position players.
And the bottom 25.
Lastly, adding in pitchers here’s the top 50.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
tRA and the 2008 Yankees
By way of Baseball Think Factory, I was introduced to a new stat called tRA. What is tRA? It’s a way to evaluate pitchers based on their peripheral stats and batted ball types allowed, developed by Graham MacAree who writes for Lookout Landing. He also has a new site called StatCorner which looks like it’s going to be a cool site for more in-depth statistical analysis.
What tRA does is assign run values to each event a pitcher allows, but removing the defense. It’s more in depth than FIP or DIPS which regress BABIP to league average, because it makes use of an important factor that FIP and DIPS ignore. All batted ball types are NOT created equal. A pitcher who allows more line drives should allow a higher BABIP, all other things being equal. So ground balls, fly balls, and line drives are given average run values for those events.
tRA also assigns out values for each event that a pitcher allows. The events are park-adjusted and out values are for what an average defense would do, so what tRA should give us is the net performance of a pitcher in a neutral park with an average defense behind him, but with more information than something like FIP, xFIP, or DIPS gives us. If you want to read more about the actual run values and out values and park adjustments, it’s all discussed at this link.
Here’s what tRA says for the 2008 Yankees.
RV: Run value of all events.
OV: Out value of all events.
tRSAA: Runs saved above average using tRA
tRSAR: Runs saved above replacement using tRA
tWAR: Wins above replacement using tRA (tRSAR/10)
This doesn’t account for leverage, but Mo is still the best pitcher on the Yankees by this measure. The Yankee pitching staff scores decently by this measure, but when you factor in a team defense that’s 48 runs below average overall by zone rating, you go from a run prevention unit that’s 15 wins better than replacement to one that’s 10 wins better.
And lastly, here’s how the AL teams stack up using this measure.
Seems about right. The White Sox raw pitching stats may look middling, but when you factor in their ballpark they may be the best pitching staff in the league. Toronto and Tampa have them beat in ERA+, but that’s most likely a function of defense (Toronto is +48!!! by zone rating as far as runs saved, and Tampa is +8, the White Sox are +3).
I think this a pretty cool way to look at pitching in more depth, but I’d be interested to see what everyone else thinks. The methodology certainly seems sound to me.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Who is the AL LVP?
Instead of doing what most writers are doing lately and looking at the AL MVP, here's a list of the AL LVP candidates, using position-adjusted batting runs above/below replacement level, defensive runs saved above average by zone rating and pitching runs saved above/below replacement level.| Name | Team | Pos | pBRAR | dRSAA | pRSAR | TR |
| Batista, Miguel | SEA | RP | -24 | -24 | ||
| Mendoza, Luis A | TEX | SP | -24 | -24 | ||
| Silva, Carlos | SEA | SP | -20 | -20 | ||
| Sexson, Richie | SEA/NYA | 1B | 0 | -18 | -18 | |
| Pena, Tony | KC | SS | -17 | 0 | -16 | |
| Gobble, Jimmy | KC | RP | -15 | -15 | ||
| Bonser, Boof | MIN | RP | -15 | -15 | ||
| Vidro, Jose | SEA | DH | -14 | -1 | -15 | |
| Hunter, Tommy | TEX | SP | -12 | -12 | ||
| O'Flaherty, Eric G | SEA | RP | -12 | -12 | ||
| Lamb, Mike | MIN | 3B | -6 | -5 | -11 | |
| Trachsel, Steve | BAL | SP | -11 | -11 | ||
| Tomko, Brett | KC | SP | -10 | -10 | ||
| Balentien, Wladimir | SEA | RF | -6 | -4 | -10 | |
| Bannister, Brian P | KC | SP | -10 | -10 | ||
| Crisp, Coco | BOS | CF | 4 | -13 | -9 | |
| Nippert, Dustin D | TEX | RP | -9 | -9 | ||
| Jennings, Jason | TEX | SP | -8 | -8 | ||
| Kennedy, Ian | NYA | SP | -8 | -8 | ||
| Gallagher, Sean | OAK | SP | -8 | -8 | ||
| Marte, Andy | CLE | 3B | -10 | 2 | -8 | |
| Wood, Brandon | LAA | 3B | -8 | 0 | -8 | |
| Ensberg, Morgan | NYA | 3B | -5 | -3 | -8 | |
| Johjima, Kenji | SEA | C | -9 | 2 | -8 | |
| Monroe, Craig | MIN | DH | -3 | -4 | -7 | |
| Gathright, Joey | KC | CF | -7 | 0 | -7 | |
| Broussard, Ben | TEX | 1B | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Lowe, Mark C | SEA | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Mastny, Tom R | CLE | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Cash, Kevin | BOS | C | -1 | -6 | -7 | |
| Gload, Ross | KC | 1B | -6 | -1 | -7 | |
| Bootcheck, Chris | LAA | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Hughes, Phil | NYA | SP | -7 | -7 | ||
| Ramirez, Elizardo | TEX | RP | -7 | -7 | ||
| German, Esteban | KC | 2B | -3 | -4 | -7 | |
| Liz, Radhames | BAL | SP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Wassermann, Ehren | CHA | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Nomo, Hideo | KC | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Fukumori, Kazuo | TEX | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Fulchino, Jeff P | KC | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Sowers, Jeremy B | CLE | SP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Bazardo, Yorman M | DET | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| Aquino, Greg | BAL | RP | -6 | -6 | ||
| DiNardo, Lenny E | OAK | RP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Willis, Dontrelle | DET | SP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Mujica, Edward J | CLE | RP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Bynum, Freddie | BAL | SS | -7 | 2 | -5 | |
| Cairo, Miguel | SEA | 1B | -4 | -1 | -5 | |
| Richard, Clayton C | CHA | SP | -5 | -5 | ||
| Bauer, Rick | CLE | RP | -5 | -5 |
pBRAR: Position-adusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
dRSAA: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating
pRSAR: Pitching runs saved above replacement
TR: Total runs (pBRAR + dRSAA + pRSAR)
At least we're not Mariners fans, right?
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Yankee Offense, Pitching and Defense since the All Star Break Winning Streak
Remember that eight game winning streak after the All Star Break? Me either.Anyway, here's how the Yankees have done over the 18 games since then.
Offense
| Player | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | K | SB | CS | GDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR | BRAA |
| Xavier Nady | 17 | 62 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .339 | .388 | .710 | 15 | 7.0 |
| Johnny Damon | 17 | 72 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .361 | .425 | .486 | 14 | 5.4 |
| Bobby Abreu | 18 | 72 | 15 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .333 | .400 | .569 | 14 | 5.3 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 18 | 66 | 14 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 6 | .258 | .372 | .606 | 14 | 3.9 |
| Jason Giambi | 16 | 45 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .289 | .418 | .489 | 9 | 3.3 |
| Richie Sexson | 14 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .286 | .375 | .476 | 4 | 0.9 |
| Jose Molina | 12 | 31 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .258 | .324 | .387 | 4 | -0.4 |
| Justin Christian | 11 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .222 | .278 | 2 | -0.8 |
| Chad Moeller | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .167 | .167 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 11 | 27 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .259 | .286 | .407 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Derek Jeter | 17 | 65 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 4 | .277 | .347 | .354 | 8 | -1.4 |
| Wilson Betemit | 14 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .282 | .282 | .385 | 3 | -1.9 |
| Robinson Cano | 17 | 62 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .210 | .279 | .323 | 5 | -4.8 |
| Melky Cabrera | 17 | 45 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .178 | .213 | .222 | 1 | -5.4 |
| Total | 203 | 631 | 95 | 177 | 25 | 3 | 27 | 88 | 55 | 11 | 126 | 13 | 4 | 24 | .281 | .348 | .458 | 95 | 8.9 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAA: BR compared to average (not position-adjusted)
I know we like to pick on WOE, but overall they haven't been the biggest problem on the team, although the Melky and Cano two-headed monster of disappointment continues to be a problem. We have enough data that shows that Cano is better than this that I'm inclined to think this is just a blip season for him and we should expect better next year. How much better? Who knows? With Melky, the Yankees have to do something to upgrade CF next year. The free agent market is thin, so it may take a trade.
Xavier Nady has been very good, and that bodes well for next season. He's not this good, but he'll probably project to be better than he ever has been in the past. Bobby Abreu has been solid lately too, which will hopefully make him attractive to other teams in the offseason. I don't see the sense in the Yankees bringing him back with Nady around.
Pitching
| Player | G | GS | CG | GF | W | L | Sv | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | HBP | ERA | RA | FIP | RSAA |
| Daniel Giese | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.0 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 4.49 | 3.4 |
| Mike Mussina | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26.0 | 26 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 3.46 | 3.81 | 3.24 | 2.7 |
| Jose Veras | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 4.88 | 2.4 |
| Billy Traber | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 0.2 |
| Mariano Rivera | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5.7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.76 | 4.76 | 6.91 | 0.0 |
| Brian Bruney | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5.06 | 5.06 | 4.14 | -0.2 |
| Sidney Ponson | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 25.0 | 25 | 14 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 5.04 | 5.04 | 5.20 | -0.9 |
| Christopher Britton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.36 | 7.36 | 6.20 | -1.1 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.06 | 5.91 | 4.14 | -1.4 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 12.20 | -1.5 |
| Ian Kennedy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22.50 | 22.50 | 3.70 | -3.9 |
| Darrell Rasner | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19.3 | 24 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 6.52 | 6.98 | 5.42 | -4.8 |
| Damaso Marte | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7.0 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 11.57 | 11.57 | 4.34 | -5.3 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5.3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 13.50 | 15.19 | 6.58 | -6.2 |
| David Robertson | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 14.14 | 14.14 | 6.63 | -7.3 |
| Andy Pettitte | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 17.3 | 27 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 8.83 | 8.83 | 5.45 | -7.9 |
| Total | 67 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 158.0 | 190 | 115 | 111 | 25 | 58 | 121 | 5 | 6.32 | 6.55 | 4.92 | -32.0 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 times HR plus 3 times (BB + HBP) - 2 times SO)/IP + 3.2). Regresses BABIP to league average.
RSAA: Runs saved above average, using earned and unearned runs
The pitching staff has been really bad, although it's not entirely their fault as we will soon see.
Defense*
| Player | Team | AL | Pos | G | GS | Ch | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Avg PM | Diff | RS |
| Cabrera, Melky | NYY | AL | CF | 14 | 10 | 28 | 92.7 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .929 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 2 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 2B | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 1B | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17.3 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian, Justin | NYY | AL | CF | 3 | 3 | 5 | 22.1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | SS | 4 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 3 | .889 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Betemit, Wilson | NYY | AL | 3B | 2 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | .833 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYY | AL | LF | 10 | 10 | 21 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .857 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | CF | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .889 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian, Justin | NYY | AL | LF | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 15 | 15 | 47 | 124 | 17 | 38 | 0 | 3 | .809 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 0 |
| Nady, Xavier | NYY | AL | RF | 2 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .600 | 3 | 4 | -1 | -1 |
| Sexson, Richie | NYY | AL | 1B | 11 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .625 | 5 | 7 | -2 | -1 |
| Damon, Johnny | NYY | AL | LF | 7 | 5 | 13 | 44 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .692 | 9 | 11 | -2 | -2 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 14 | 14 | 29 | 122 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 5 | .690 | 20 | 22 | -2 | -2 |
| Abreu, Bobby | NYY | AL | RF | 14 | 14 | 46 | 122 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .804 | 37 | 40 | -3 | -3 |
| Giambi, Jason | NYY | AL | 1B | 11 | 11 | 17 | 80.7 | 72 | 4 | 0 | 6 | .588 | 10 | 14 | -4 | -3 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 15 | 14 | 60 | 126 | 29 | 43 | 3 | 9 | .650 | 39 | 48 | -9 | -7 |
| Total | 133 | 112 | 316 | 988.8 | 300 | 133 | 4 | 33 | .769 | 243 | 264 | -21 | -16 |
*Defensive numbers don't include today's debacle.
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
This is just a lost season for Cano on both sides of the ball. He now rates below average defensively according to zone rating. I am sure his offensive struggles aren't helping his defense.
Giambi and Abreu being bad on defense isn't exactly a surprise, although Damon and A-Rod were both having solid seasons until recently. There's some double-counting between the pitching and the defense here, but it's safe to assume the Yankees have been somewhere between 20-30 runs worse than average over this stretch. An average team would in theory go 9-9 over 18 games, although the split of 8 home games and 10 road games might make that 8-10 instead. So the Yankees 6-12 record is right in line with their overall crappy performance.
I'm pretty sure this road trip has knocked the Yankees out of playoff contention at this point, but maybe they've got one more good streak in them.
Baltimore Aquarium Contest
The Yankees are going to be in Baltimore next weekend and I've been offered a prize package to give to anyone who may be interested in attending any of the games by the Baltimore National Aquarium. The prize consists of:
- A family four-pack of tickets to the National Aquarium
- An overnight stay at one of three Harbor Magic Hotels
National Aquarium in Baltimore (501 East Pratt Street, Baltimore, Maryland, 21202)
The National Aquarium was rated #1 for all Baltimore things to do and is a favorite attraction among visitors to the area. Home to over 16,000 animals, the Aquarium features habitats from around the world including Animal Planet Australia: Wild Extremes, an exciting dolphin show and a new 4-D Immersion Theater. The Aquarium's location in Baltimore's Inner Harbor, which is in walking distance to the stadium, makes it easy to plan a visit before or after a game.
410-576-3800
www.aqua.org
Hotel (Three locations in downtown Baltimore)
Harbor Magic Hotels consist of three unique boutique hotels located in and around Baltimore's famous Inner Harbor. Each is delightfully different, yet all three are centered on delivering exceptional personalized visits that let you experience Baltimore as few others can.
866-583-4162
www.harbormagic.com
I'm going to offer the prize to whomever can answer the following question first. If no one answers by EOD tomorrow I'll just take the first email that expresses interest by EOD Friday
Who is the Yankees' career leader in runs saved by zone rating? (Note: Zone rating has only been tracked since 1987)
Just email me through the site if you are interested.
Monday, June 16, 2008
Fractured Wang
Well, the news is in on Chien-Ming Wang's injury, and it's not good for Yankee fans. I will resist the temptation to bash the insipid inter-league play that led to this injury. Instead, let's look at the impact of this injury.The Yankees have 92 games left this year. Divide by five and you get 18 starts for each slot in the rotation. For all intents and purposes, I'm going to assume that Wang is done for the year. First, let's look at what a healthy Wang would be expected to do over his remaining starts, using his 2008 projection weighed at 70% and his 2008 actual performance weighed at 30%. For the numbers that follow, I am assuming a replacement level pitcher would put up an ERA of 5.58.
| Healthy Wang | ERA | G | IP/G | IP | ER | RAR | WAR |
| Wang | 3.90 | 18 | 6.70 | 121 | 52 | 23 | 2.3 |
Wang's revised projection was for a 3.90 ERA. He's averaging 6.7 innings per game this year, so I assumed that is what he would have done over the rest of the season. So in 18 starts, Wang would give the team 121 innings and save 23 runs above a replacement level pitcher (RAR). Divide that by 10 to get the wins above replacement (2.3 WAR).
So those 18 starts and 121 innings have to go somewhere. Let's assume they're split over Dan Giese, IPK, and Phil Hughes.
| G/K/H/R | ERA | G | IP/G | IP | ER | RAR | WAR |
| Giese | 4.21 | 8 | 5.00 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 0.6 |
| Kennedy | 5.35 | 7 | 5.00 | 35 | 21 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Hughes | 5.42 | 3 | 5.00 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Repl Level P | 5.58 | 31 | 1.00 | 31 | 19 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 5.04 | ---- | ---- | 121 | 68 | 7 | 0.7 |
Giese's MLE and projection are probably overly optimistic, but this is supposed to be objective. I'm assuming here that none of this trio will be able to average more than 5 innings a start. Kennedy and Hughes both projected better coming into 2008 but at this point I'm going to assume they will be about a hair better than replacement level. So there's a shortfall of 31 innings that I am going to estimate will be picked up by a replacement level reliever, although it's possible one of the kids on the farm could improve on that. So in this case, the Yankees lose about 1.6 wins by going from Wang to this group of pitchers.
If Giese is replacement level, then the Yankees are basically down the 2.3 wins that Wang would have given them.
Lastly, since we'll be hearing and reading about it for the next few weeks, here's what C.C. Sabathia would be projected to do.
| Scenario 1 | ERA | G | IP/G | IP | ER | RAR | WAR |
| Sabathia | 3.70 | 18 | 6.90 | 124 | 51 | 26 | 2.6 |
Sabathia's a little more durable than Wang on a per game basis, so he'd be a slight upgrade if he was acquired.
So yeah, this sucks, but it's probably not as dire as it may seem right now.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Cy Olson
After beating up on the Mariners and getting a five game winning streak going, the WOE showed up again yesterday in an 8-1 loss to Baltimore. Garrett Olson stifled the offense over seven scoreless inning.
Olson is a lefty, and this year the Yankees have hit .242/.317/.347 vs lefties. It seems like the Yankees are facing an inordinate amount of lefties this season so I looked at the splits. Last year, 27% of the Yankees PAs came against lefties. This year, 35% of them have. Whether this is by design by opponents or an early season fluctuation is an open question, but it does explain some of their offensive struggles this season.
Joe Girardi has tried to mitigate this some by playing people like Morgan Ensberg and Shelley Duncan, but it hasn’t worked so far. With Ensberg seemingly on his way out there’s talk of Jason Lane being brought up as another RHB off the bench. Lane’s not exactly a lefty masher (career .231/.310/.469) so I don’t see how that helps.
Here are the individual splits:
Jason Giambi (.220/.429/.439) in 50 PA
Hideki Matsui (.323/.364/.387) in 66 PA
Derek Jeter (.274/.328/.419) in 66 PA
Bobby Abreu (.286/.318/.429) in 66 PA
Johnny Damon (.274/.357/.387) in 70 PA
Robinson Cano (.250/.333/.375) in 61 PA
A. Rodriguez (.233/.361/.333) in 35 PA
Chad Moeller (.278/.381/.278) in 20 PA
S. Duncan (.211/.279/.342) in 42 PA
Jorge Posada (.308/.308/.308) in 13 PA
Melky Cabrera (.177/.246/.306) in 67 PA
W. Betemit (.250/.250/.250) in 8 PA
M. Ensberg (.167/.265/.167) in 34 PA
Jose Molina (.152/.176/.212) in 34 PA
A. Gonzalez (.133/.188/.133) in 16 PA
Chris Stewart (.000/.000/.000) in 3 PA
Ensberg was brough in at least partially because of a career OPS over .900 vs lefties. While 34 PA is too small to write him off, the Yankees may not have the luxury of the time needed to see if he can improve there. Melky is killing them vs. lefties. He has shown a slight platoon split over his career but it’s really bad this year. You’d expect Alex Rodriguez to start hitting them better, which I guess is probably going to be the key.
Anyway, we know the Yankees aren’t going to win every game this year, but with the hole they’re digging themselves every loss is painful. On the plus side, Darrell Rasner again pitched well and this time it was against a team that had recently seen him, which is an encouraging sign going forward. I still don’t think he’s sub 2 ERA good, but if you look at his projections and factor in his YTD performance (MLEs + MLB), there’s a decent chance he’s 4.50 ERA good.
Ian Kennedy goes to the post tonight, trying to build off a decent outing last time. The Orioles will throw another lefty at the Yanks so he’ll need to be good.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - May 23
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Exp W: Expected wins using log5
Exp L: Expected losses using log5
Act W: Actual wins
Act L: Actual losses
If you had to pick the three main reasons for the Yankees' disappointing start to the year, the performances of Robinson Cano, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy would top the list. I'm hoping our new sponsorship of Hughes's Baseball Reference page gets him back on track. And in last night's 2-1 win over Baltimore, Cano and Kennedy took some steps towards redemption.
Kennedy pitched six effective innings, working around four walks and allowing one run. The Yankee offense struggled again but managed to get one run off Brian "Cy" Burres. Jose Veras, Kyle Farnsworth and Mariano Rivera each added a scoreless inning, and that set the stage for the bottom of the ninth.
Hideki Matsui led off with a single, then Alex Rodriguez whiffed and Jason Giambi allegedly foul-tipped a two strike pitch into Ramon Hernandez's glove, although the umpire needed Hernandez's help to realize it. Bobby Abreu pinch-hit for Shelley Duncan and drew a walk, which brought up the beleaguered Cano. Cano took two pitches then grounded a single the other way. Matsui charged home and got in under a high throw home and the Yankees had a walkoff win.
Cano's season line is still ugly at .207/.256/.314 but he is hitting .302/.333/.444 in May. He needs to better than that to get his line back up to respectability, but I think we all know he has the ability to do that.
It's Memorial Day weekend so I won't be around much, but I'll at least try and get the Game Chatters posted.
Monday, May 19, 2008
NY Daily News: Joe Girardi: Blame me for this
“We need to play better. We need to hit better. We need to play better defense and pitch better. It starts with me,” Girardi said after his Yanks lost for the fifth time in six games and remained at the bottom of the AL East. “You can put it on me. The leader needs to take charge and find a way to win.”
While I admire Girardi sticking up for his troops, I don’t know that it’s really his fault that the team isn’t playing all that well. Like many I thought that the stricter spring training with a renewed focus on conditioning would mean a faster start than the Yankees have had the last few seasons, but they are playing like an old team, which isn’t surprising, since they are old for the most part.
The logical part of my brain knows that how the team has performed to date shouldn’t affect my expectations for the rest of the season all that much, although the struggles of Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes whenever he returns make them a worse than I expected. Add in the injuries to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada and this is probably a .500 team right now.
The good news is that Rodriguez should be back tomorrow, with Posada to follow in the next few weeks. Darrell Rasner may give them a reasonably solid fourth starter behind Wang, Moose, and Pettitte. Joba Chamberlain may or may not move into the rotation at some point although there is suddenly speculation that he may not start this season. The schedule gets a lot easier over the next few weeks, a fact that’s been pointed out several times by John Lynch in the comments, so this is the Yankees’ chance to get back into things. As awful as they’ve played they are only 6 games out of first. At this point last season they were 20-24 just like they are now, but were 10.5 games out of first.
I normally hate off days during the season, but this year I’m learning to like them. That’s not a good thing.
Friday, May 9, 2008
SportingNews.com: Cabrera and Cano are the Yankees’ future
If the Yankees have a battery, it’s a twin job—Cabrera and Cano, two guys born and raised just miles apart in the Dominican Republic who have become the best of friends in their short big league stints. Cano was only 22 when he was called up from the minors early in the 2005 season, but Cabrera was even younger, 20, when he was summoned later in the year. Cano, always an effervescent extrovert, immediately took the shy Cabrera under his wing. They’re not related, but the two call each other “primo,” Spanish for cousin. “Ever since I came up,” Cabrera says, “he’s been there, helping me. He’s like my brother.”
If you’re looking for something to read at work, here’s an interesting article about Cano and Cabrera by Sean Deveney at SportingNews.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Courant.com: Yankees Rotation Forced To Regroup
NEW YORK - Though the Yankees (17-16) showed significant fight over the weekend, shaking their hitting funk and sweeping the Mariners to recoup the three losses to the Tigers last week, there are serious questions about their starting rotation.
At the moment, it’s Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Chien-Ming Wang - then everything goes wrong. It was enough to have co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner, who was talked out of trading Hughes and Kennedy for Johan Santana, doubting the Yankees can make the playoffs in his most recent rant.
“You’d like for things to go exactly the way you planned it,” general manager Brian Cashman said, “but if you truly have a strong organization, then when someone struggles, there is going to be someone else you can turn to.”
On Sunday, that candidate was Darrell Rasner, a career minor leaguer who replaced Kennedy and threw six innings to get a win. So for this week Rasner’s in, but a No.5 starter hasn’t been identified, with Kei Igawa the logical but far-from-inspiring option.
You can’t be upset with what Wang, Mussina, and Pettitte have given the team. Everything Moose has provided is almost enough to make you forget about the Hughes and Kennedy starts. Almost. But if Kei Igawa ends up starting for this team at any point this season it may get ugly. Really ugly.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Can’t O
I’m stealing my title from Keith’s liveblogs. At first yesterday’s game with the Rays was great. Then, it started to suck. Then it was great again. When it was finally over, the Yankees had an 8-7 win over the the Tampa Bay Rays.
Three solo homers by Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Morgan Ensberg in the first two innings gave the Yankees a quick 3-0 lead. Ian Kennedy gave one run back in the third but the Yankees scored four in the fourth and had a 7-1 lead. Kennedy gave one more run back but got through six with the same 7-2 lead. Kennedy pitched pretty well yesterday, Kennedy threw 94 pitches, 60 for strikes, and got a mix of 10 fly balls, 8 grounders and 3 line drives. He walked just two while fanning four in a very encouraging outing overall. Kennedy took a liner off his hip leading off the seventh and then came the bullpen.
Prior to last night’s game the Yankee bullpen had pitched quite well. They had an overall ERA of 3.09 and had struck out 43 while walking 13 over 46.2 innings. Unfortunately, that must have meant they were due for a bad game and it came last night. Billy Traber relieved Kennedy with three straight lefties due up and a runner on. He got Akinori Iwamura to line out to deep right, then Carl Crawford took him deep to make it a 7-4 game. Traber then hit Carlos Pena and was pulled for Brian Bruney. Bruney gave up back to back homers to B.J. Upton and Evan Longoria (his first MLB homer) and all of a sudden it was 7-7.
In the top of the eighth after Chad Moeller struck out (shocking), Alberto Gonzalez stepped up. Joe Girardi went to his bench for Robinson Cano who had a night off to clear hs head or something. Cano worked the count to 2-1 then hit a moonshot HR that gave the Yanks an 8-7 lead. That would be the last run scored in the game, as Bruney and Mo combined to retire the last six Rays hitters and the Yankees evened their record at 7-7.
After a horrible first start and a middling relief performance, Kennedy’s good start was a breath of fresh air. He’s very likely going to continue to mix in some clunkers but all pitchers do to varying degrees. It was also nice to see Ensberg making the most of what’s been very limited playing time to this point. I don’t think Jason Giambi is completely done despite his low average so far, but I’d like to see Ensberg get a little more time to see what he can provide.
After a painful series in Fenway it was a nice win. I’m still not expecting the Yankees to leave April with a record much better than .500 but I would like to see certain players performing better, like Cano especially. Hopefully last night was the start to one of his hot streaks. Rodriguez also had a good game, going 4-5 with the aforementioned HR, after what’s been a relatively disappointing start to the season.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Oh Where, Oh Where Has My Little Offense Gone?
While my head knows that nine games is still way too small of a sample size to draw undue distinctions from, it sure didn’t feel like it while I watched the again punchless Yankees fall to Kansas City 4-0 last night. Granted, sometimes you run into a Roy Halladay. Sometimes you run into A.J. Burnett. Sometimes you run into Dustin McGowan. Sometimes you run into Andy Sonnastine. Sometimes you run into Edwin Jackson. Sometimes you run into James Shields. Sometimes you run into Jason Hammel. Sometimes you run into Brian Bannister. Sometimes you run into Zach Greinke. But come on, ALL NINE OF THEM?
With a forecast of rain all night, Joe Girardi pulled Ian Kennedy from starting the game and went with Brian Bruney to start the game. The reason given was so that they wouldn’t start the game with Kennedy and then lose him if the rain stopped the game. Considering the grief Girardi got for bringing back Josh Johnson from a long rain delay when he managed the Marlins in 2006 and Johnson’s subsequent breakdown which may or not have been related, this was pretty interesting out of the box thinking. For the most part it seemed to work well, although it likely cost the Yankees the use of Bruney and Farnsworth in today’s game. That’s probably bad in the former case but not necessarily so in the latter case. Kennedy ended up pitching the 6th through 8th, starting off poorly but finishing off pretty well.
The pitching didn’t really matter because the offense continued to stink. Here’s how the Yankees rate by position-adjusted batting runs above average using linear weights to this point.
Matsui : 2
Abreu : 1.5
Rodriguez : 0.7
Molina : 0.3
Gonzalez : 0.2
Cabrera : 0.1
Ensberg : -0.5
Damon : -0.5
Duncan : -0.5
Betemit : -1
Jeter : -1.5
Posada : -1.9
Giambi : -2.4
Cano : -4.4
How is Damon not worse? Hey Robinson, feel free to stop sucking. How bad has Cano been? Here are the five worst offensive players so far in the AL this season by position-adjusted BRAA:
Crawford : -4.3
Johjima : -4.3
Ortiz : -4.3
Cano : -4.4
Polanco : -4.6
Only Placido Polanco has been worse. He’s in good company with David Ortiz and Carl Crawford at least.
Like I said, it’s still too early to panic, but it’s probably not too early to get irritated or annoyed.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
MLB.com - Shoulder pain may send Posada to DL
KANSAS CITY—Already without Derek Jeter for at least three games, the suddenly snake-bitten Yankees are now facing the possibility of losing All-Star catcher Jorge Posada to the disabled list.
Posada was removed from the Yankees’ 5-2 loss to the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in the sixth inning on Tuesday, feeling a recurrence of the right shoulder stiffness that began to affect him following New York’s season opener last week.
Asked how the shoulder feels, Posada said: “Dead. It’s like I’ve got no strength.”
What does losing Posada mean? Posada’s average projection for this year was .286/.380/.469, which means his offense would have been worth around .15 runs per plate appearance. Jose Molina’s average projection was .242/.279/.358 and .0908 runs per plate appearances. So for every fifteen games that Molina plays over Posada, the Yankees lose about 4 runs (assuming 4.2 plate appearances per game). So while losing Posada is not good news, if it’s short-term it shouldn’t be crippling, particularly if Derek Jeter’s sore quad is really just a day-to-day thing. It’s not a good sign to see Posada on his way to the DL for the first time ever in the first year of a four year deal, but it’s probably too soon to worry about the long-term implications of this.
The Yankees lost to Kansas City 5-2 yesterday. Phil Hughes battled a tight strike zone but his command wasn’t great either and he was pulled after 3 innings and 3 runs. The Yankees took a calculated risk with their heavy reliance on Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain this year, and there will be games like Kennedy’s last start or Hughes’s start today mixed in at times. Hopefully they will be able to take lessons away from these poor outings that will help them develop into the dependable starters the Yankees will need them to be as the season progresses. If not, there’s always Kei Igawa…
The Yankees had Brian Bannister on the ropes early but couldn’t put him away and the Royals bullpen stifled them over the final four innings to seal the win while tacking on a couple of insurance runs against Ross Ohlendorf. The Royals’ Leo Nunez and Joakim Soria sure look like a solid end of game bullpen tandem, don’t they?
Speaking of IPK, he gets the ball back later today against Zach Greinke. Let’s see if he can come back from what may have been his first bad pro start ever.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Pitcher and Team Wrapup
We're finally through all the projections so it's time to look at what they mean. First up, here are the links to all the pieces for anyone who wants to get caught up.Position Players
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jorge Posada
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Jason Giambi
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Robinson Cano
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Derek Jeter
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Alex Rodriguez
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Johnny Damon
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Melky Cabrera
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Bobby Abreu
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Hideki Matsui
Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Bench
Pitchers
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Andy Pettitte
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Mike Mussina
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Phil Hughes
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Ian Kennedy
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Joba Chamberlain
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Mariano Rivera
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins
Looking Ahead to 2008 - The Rest of the Pen
If you've been keeping up with these you'll recall that I projected the position players and bench to score 938 runs in 2008 using estimated playing time and depth charts. I projected their defense to be about 13 runs below average. For the pitching, that's a little bit trickier, so I'm going to present two scenarios.
Scenario 1
In this scenario, I'm going to assume that everything that I think the Yankees are planning for falls into place fairly well. This is basically the best case scenario assuming everyone plays to their average projections and innings limits.
| Starters | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 200 | 215 | 97 | 90 | 95 | 13 | 58 | 97 | 4.05 |
| Andy Pettitte | 200 | 220 | 103 | 94 | 98 | 19 | 62 | 137 | 4.25 |
| Phil Hughes | 160 | 152 | 78 | 72 | 77 | 16 | 57 | 129 | 4.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | 170 | 170 | 89 | 82 | 91 | 20 | 67 | 130 | 4.35 |
| Mike Mussina | 150 | 170 | 83 | 77 | 75 | 18 | 38 | 103 | 4.61 |
| Joba ChamberlainS | 100 | 94 | 47 | 43 | 45 | 11 | 33 | 99 | 3.90 |
| Starters Total | 980 | 1020 | 498 | 459 | 482 | 98 | 314 | 696 | 4.22 |
| Relievers | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Mariano Rivera | 70 | 64 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 60 | 2.88 |
| Joba ChamberlainR | 40 | 34 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 48 | 3.10 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 60 | 57 | 30 | 28 | 31 | 7 | 25 | 55 | 4.19 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 60 | 66 | 31 | 29 | 32 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 4.36 |
| Chris Britton | 40 | 39 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 31 | 3.99 |
| Brian Bruney | 40 | 39 | 23 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 33 | 4.88 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 40 | 37 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 18 | 44 | 4.12 |
| Ross OhlendorfR | 40 | 44 | 21 | 19 | 23 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 4.37 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 40 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 23 | 6 | 14 | 30 | 4.59 |
| Scott Patterson | 40 | 40 | 20 | 19 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 4.23 |
| Relievers Total | 470 | 461 | 226 | 209 | 231 | 53 | 169 | 396 | 4.01 |
| IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA | |
| Starters + Relievers | 1450 | 1481 | 723 | 669 | 713 | 151 | 483 | 1092 | 4.15 |
| Average | 1450 | 1513 | 783 | 720 | 769 | 163 | 535 | 1070 | 4.47 |
| Difference | 0 | -32 | 60 | 51 | 57 | -12 | -52 | 22 | -0.32 |
FR in the table above is FIP(fielding independent pitching) runs allowed, which is an approximation of what the Yankee pitchers would allow with an average defense. You can probably move the innings around in the pen but most of the relievers project fairly closely to each other so it shouldn't make a ton of difference. In this scenario, the Yankees as a team would allow 723 runs in total, with the defense being responsible for about ten of them.
Scenario 2
| Starters | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 180 | 193 | 87 | 81 | 86 | 12 | 52 | 87 | 4.05 |
| Andy Pettitte | 160 | 176 | 83 | 75 | 79 | 16 | 50 | 110 | 4.25 |
| Phil Hughes | 150 | 143 | 73 | 68 | 73 | 15 | 53 | 121 | 4.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | 150 | 150 | 78 | 73 | 80 | 17 | 59 | 115 | 4.35 |
| Mike Mussina | 150 | 170 | 83 | 77 | 75 | 18 | 38 | 103 | 4.61 |
| Kei Igawa | 100 | 111 | 62 | 58 | 62 | 17 | 36 | 73 | 5.26 |
| Jeff Karstens | 90 | 105 | 60 | 56 | 58 | 15 | 33 | 53 | 5.56 |
| Joba ChamberlainS | 70 | 65 | 33 | 30 | 31 | 8 | 23 | 69 | 3.90 |
| Starters Total | 1050 | 1113 | 560 | 518 | 544 | 118 | 344 | 731 | 4.44 |
| Relievers | IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA |
| Mariano Rivera | 60 | 55 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 52 | 2.88 |
| Joba ChamberlainR | 30 | 25 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 3.10 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 50 | 47 | 25 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 4.19 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | 50 | 55 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 4.36 |
| Chris Britton | 30 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 3.99 |
| Brian Bruney | 30 | 29 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 4.88 |
| Edwar Ramirez | 30 | 27 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 4.12 |
| Ross OhlendorfR | 30 | 33 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 4.37 |
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 30 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 4.59 |
| Scott Patterson | 30 | 30 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 4.23 |
| Sean Henn | 30 | 33 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 20 | 5.24 |
| Relievers Total | 400 | 396 | 196 | 182 | 199 | 45 | 147 | 331 | 4.09 |
| IP | H | R | ER | FR | HR | BB | SO | ERA | |
| Starters + Relievers | 1450 | 1509 | 756 | 700 | 742 | 163 | 490 | 1063 | 4.34 |
| Average | 1450 | 1513 | 783 | 720 | 769 | 163 | 535 | 1070 | 4.47 |
| Difference | 0 | -4 | 27 | 20 | 27 | 0 | -45 | -7 | -0.12 |
Here the assumption is the Yankees lose some time from their penciled-in starters and have to give Igawa and Karstens 190 innings. Sean Henn makes an appearance in the pen as well and the better-projected relievers pitch a little less. It should be noted that any or all of the pitchers could also pitch worse than projected, so this is not exactly the worst-case scenario by any means. I'd consider this more of a realistic/likely scenario assuming average fortune with health and performance. Here the Yankees as a team allow 783 runs, with 14 of them due to the defense.
So we have a runs scored of 938, and two different runs allowed totals. I'll use Pythagenpat to estimate the Yankees' schedule-neutral winning percentage. Pythagenpat is a more accurate way to estimate a team's pythagorean winning percentage by using a custom exponent instead of either the standard 2 or slightly more accurate 1.83. The formula to get the custom exponent is (RS/G + RA/G)^.28. Then we take RS^custom exponent and divide by (RS^custom exponent + RA^custom exponent).
Scenario 1
Runs Scored: 938
Runs Allowed: 723
Exponent: 1.92
Pythagenpat%: .62
Neutral Schedule Wins: 101
Scenario 2
Runs Scored: 938
Runs Allowed: 783
Exponent: 1.94
Pythagenpat%: .59
Neutral Schedule Wins: 95
We're not quite done yet, because now we have to look at the strength of the Yankees' schedule. Thankfully someone already did this on a post related to my Diamond Mind projections on Baseball Think Factory.
The AL East minus the Yanks has an expected winning percentage of .523. If we use Bill James's log 5 method to calculate the Yankees' expected winning percentage over their AL East games we get a winning percentage of .598 for scenario 1 and a winning percentage of .568 for scenario 2. I'm going to assume the rest of the schedule is .500 which is probably lazy but should be close enough with the margin of error.
Scenario 1: .598*76 + .62* 86 = 98.7 wins
Scenario 2: .568*76 + .59* 86 = 93.8 wins
I'm going to assume that the Yankees' luck will fall somewhere between scenarios 1 and 2. Split the difference and they should end up at 96 wins. Of course this depends on the key players staying healthy and hitting their projections, but on paper this is a very good team. Let's hope they show it starting Monday. The long off-season is almost over. Thanks to everyone who's stopped by over the last few months. Writing the blog and having people read and comment makes the off-season go by much faster for me.
Update: My Hardball Times' season preview for the Yankees has been posted on their site today for anyone who wants to check it out. Link: Five Questions: New York Yankees
Monday, March 17, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Ian Kennedy
Ian Kennedy was the Yankees' first pick in the 2006 draft. Highly touted after his sophomore year he struggled in his junior year which made his stock drop which was probably the main reason he fell to the Yanks at all. He did not sign in time to see much regular minor league action in 2006 but was able to pitch in the Hawaiian winter league. Kennedy tore through the minors in 2007 and made it to the show.2007
On the surface, Kennedy's 1.87 minor league ERA is pretty damn impressive. However, to properly contextualize it we should look at his MLEs (major league equivalencies).
| Name | Age | Team | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Ian Kennedy | 21 | STI | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 |
| Ian Kennedy | 22 | Tam | 11 | 10 | 57.0 | 52 | 23 | 6 | 26 | 46 | 3.63 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 4.1 | 7.3 |
| Ian Kennedy | 22 | Tre | 9 | 9 | 44.0 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 19 | 37 | 4.50 | 8.2 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 7.6 |
| Ian Kennedy | 22 | SWB | 6 | 6 | 33.0 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 6.8 |
| Total | 26 | 25 | 134 | 123 | 59 | 15 | 56 | 108 | 3.96 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 7.3 |
2008
Fairly or not, the knock on Kennedy is his ceiling. Since he doesn't throw in the mid 90s he's not expected to be much better than a third starter. I'd say it's too early to definitively make that assessment, but I don't disagree that physically the label fits. Still, there's nothing wrong with having a third starter making league minimum plus his signing bonus. Here's how the various projection systems see Kennedy in 2008.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 19 | 18 | 92 | 92 | 50 | 46 | 11 | 44 | 82 | 4.50 | 4.41 | 0 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| marcel | 17 | 17 | 69 | 66 | 34 | 30 | 7 | 26 | 53 | 3.91 | 4.11 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 8 |
| pecota | 38 | 25 | 141 | 129 | 72 | 66 | 16 | 68 | 120 | 4.24 | 4.42 | 4 | 18 | -1 | 11 |
| zips | 27 | 26 | 148 | 158 | 79 | 72 | 16 | 42 | 94 | 4.38 | 4.19 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 15 |
| cairo | 32 | 32 | 184 | 188 | 96 | 92 | 24 | 68 | 136 | 4.50 | 4.53 | -1 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| average | 27 | 23 | 127 | 127 | 66 | 61 | 15 | 50 | 97 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
The consensus is that Kennedy should be better than league average. His projected innings are low, he threw around 160 innings last year. He can probably pitch 180 or so if he stays healthy, so that would up his RSAA(runs saved above average) to about 8 and his RSAR(runs saved above replacement) to about 25. I'd caution that we only have one year of data when we are projecting Kennedy which means the reliability of his projection is probably pretty small.
Here's the range of projections that CAIRO has for IPK:
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 32 | 32 | 184 | 174 | 86 | 82 | 19 | 60 | 148 | 4.03 | 3.92 | 9 | 27 | 9 | 25 |
| 65% | 32 | 32 | 184 | 181 | 91 | 87 | 22 | 64 | 142 | 4.27 | 4.22 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 18 |
| Baseline | 32 | 32 | 184 | 188 | 96 | 92 | 24 | 68 | 136 | 4.50 | 4.53 | -1 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 35% | 32 | 32 | 184 | 195 | 101 | 97 | 26 | 72 | 130 | 4.73 | 4.83 | -5 | 13 | -10 | 6 |
| 20% | 32 | 32 | 184 | 202 | 106 | 102 | 29 | 76 | 124 | 4.97 | 5.13 | -10 | 8 | -16 | 0 |
CAIRO doesn't see greatness from Kennedy in 2008, but it doesn't see disaster either.
Value
Rookie pitcher who projects to be better than league average? I smell cost-effiency.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 2.6 | $11,700,000 | $400,000 | $11,300,000 |
Conclusion
The young Mussina comp doesn't really work with Kennedy. Young Moose threw 92-95 mph. I see Kennedy more as a Brad Radke type pitcher right now, with an average fastball and a great changeup. Radke had two very good seasons and a bunch of above average seasons, and I think that right now that's the way I'd see Kennedy profiling. Of course, Kennedy could exceed that. Regardless, for 2008 I have a good feeling that Kennedy will be solid in the back of the Yankee rotation, and will probably end up pitching the most innings of any non-Wang/Pettitte starter.
We are still having problems with our host, which apparently tie back to the internal server errors we've been seeing at times. I'll be posting here until we get that figured out.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Diamond Mind and CAIRO post-Santana trade
I've gotten a few requests for this, so here are the CAIRO/Diamond Mind simulations with Santana traded to the Metsies.| AL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Bos08 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 881 | 695 | 54.8 | 32.5 | 92 - 104 | 839 - 923 | 659 - 730 |
| NYA08 | 96.5 | 65.6 | 940 | 770 | 35.8 | 42.0 | 90 - 103 | 893 - 988 | 726 - 814 |
| Tor08 | 87.1 | 74.9 | 775 | 710 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 80 - 94 | 736 - 814 | 673 - 748 |
| Tam08 | 76.9 | 85.1 | 806 | 853 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 71 - 83 | 769 - 843 | 815 - 891 |
| Bal08 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 768 | 908 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63 - 75 | 730 - 807 | 865 - 950 |
| AL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Det08 | 91.0 | 71.0 | 905 | 784 | 55.0 | 3.5 | 85 - 97 | 859 - 952 | 745 - 824 |
| Cle08 | 89.4 | 72.6 | 828 | 719 | 43.0 | 6.0 | 84 - 95 | 790 - 867 | 682 - 756 |
| KC08 | 75.1 | 86.9 | 768 | 847 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 69 - 81 | 729 - 807 | 809 - 885 |
| ChA08 | 73.9 | 88.1 | 779 | 850 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 68 - 80 | 743 - 814 | 809 - 890 |
| Min08 | 72.0 | 90.1 | 699 | 794 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 66 - 78 | 660 - 738 | 756 - 832 |
| AL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| LAA08 | 89.3 | 72.7 | 801 | 712 | 83.5 | 1.0 | 83 - 95 | 758 - 845 | 675 - 748 |
| Sea08 | 78.3 | 83.7 | 721 | 778 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 72 - 85 | 682 - 761 | 736 - 821 |
| Tex08 | 74.6 | 87.4 | 821 | 904 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 68 - 81 | 781 - 860 | 861 - 947 |
| Oak08 | 73.2 | 88.8 | 739 | 813 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 68 - 79 | 703 - 775 | 769 - 858 |
| NL East | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| NYN08 | 94.7 | 67.4 | 827 | 696 | 80.5 | 7.3 | 89 - 101 | 785 - 869 | 660 - 733 |
| Phi08 | 84.4 | 77.6 | 864 | 813 | 10.5 | 17.0 | 78 - 90 | 823 - 905 | 770 - 855 |
| Atl08 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 780 | 764 | 9.0 | 13.3 | 77 - 89 | 737 - 823 | 729 - 800 |
| Was08 | 73.8 | 88.2 | 774 | 856 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68 - 80 | 737 - 811 | 819 - 894 |
| Flo08 | 66.3 | 95.7 | 734 | 894 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61 - 72 | 699 - 769 | 851 - 936 |
| NL Central | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| ChN08 | 89.2 | 72.8 | 804 | 718 | 61.5 | 6.3 | 83 - 95 | 764 - 844 | 677 - 759 |
| Mil08 | 85.6 | 76.4 | 810 | 755 | 26.0 | 13.5 | 79 - 92 | 774 - 846 | 717 - 793 |
| Cin08 | 78.9 | 83.1 | 771 | 806 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 72 - 85 | 732 - 811 | 762 - 850 |
| Hou08 | 77.6 | 84.4 | 770 | 795 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 72 - 84 | 732 - 809 | 759 - 830 |
| StL08 | 77.2 | 84.8 | 763 | 801 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 71 - 83 | 724 - 802 | 766 - 837 |
| Pit08 | 68.2 | 93.9 | 692 | 838 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 62 - 74 | 660 - 725 | 799 - 876 |
| NL West | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | 1 Std W | 1 Std RF | 1 Std RA |
| Col08 | 85.2 | 76.8 | 832 | 788 | 28.5 | 6.3 | 79 - 92 | 789 - 875 | 752 - 823 |
| Ari08 | 85.1 | 76.9 | 748 | 710 | 21.5 | 13.0 | 79 - 91 | 712 - 784 | 670 - 749 |
| LAN08 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 770 | 750 | 23.5 | 7.8 | 80 - 90 | 734 - 805 | 713 - 787 |
| SD08 | 83.2 | 78.8 | 748 | 697 | 26.5 | 5.5 | 77 - 90 | 707 - 788 | 660 - 735 |
| SF08 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 686 | 789 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62 - 76 | 649 - 723 | 745 - 834 |
It's about 4-5 win upgrade for the Mets, which is huge. It doesn't impact the AL all that much aside from making Minnesota worse, which benefits the AL Central second place team in their pursuit of the wild card.
I know there are some fans that are disappointed that the Yankees didn't give up a package of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and "a top prospect." Don't count me among them. Santana would have cost the Yankees at least $20 million a year plus another $5 million or so in luxury tax, for what would have been a 2008 regular season upgrade of maybe a win or two, most likely followed by diminishing returns over over the remainder of Johan's extension. We don't know who the "top prospect" would have been. As the simulations show, the Yankees are still a very good team. Not as good as Boston, but being better than Boston didn't help them from 2001-2006.
I'll continue the top twenty position player seasons tomorrow with LF.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Poll: Who would you trade for Santana?
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
NY Daily News: Yankees want Miguel Cabrera, won’t trade big three pitchers
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. - If the Yankees want Miguel Cabrera to succeed Alex Rodriguez as their third baseman, it's going to cost them.
Brian Cashman met with the Marlins at about 6 p.m. last night at the GM meetings. No offers were made, but a source with knowledge of the situation said the Marlins made it clear that the Yankees would have to include either Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy in any trade for Cabrera, something the Yankees are not willing to do.
The Yankees would likely offer a deal involving their next tier of prospects, which includes Alan Horne, Humberto Sanchez, Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Tabata.
I can't see the Marlins giving up Cabrera without getting either Hughes or Chamberlain plus more. I've seen some sentiment posted here that Cabrera's not a good target, which is pretty silly. At age 24 he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. There are questions about his work ethic and motivation, but I tend to think it's a product of being on a team that's going nowhere and playing in front of "crowds" of 800-1000 people a night.
Here's Cabrera's range of CAIRO projections for 2008:
| % | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBR/650 | pBRAR/650 |
| 80% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 195 | 46 | 3 | 35 | 119 | 80 | 7 | 105 | 5 | 2 | .344 | .435 | .625 | 1.059 | 136 | 51 | 68 |
| 65% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 188 | 43 | 3 | 33 | 114 | 76 | 6 | 110 | 4 | 2 | .332 | .416 | .590 | 1.006 | 126 | 41 | 58 |
| Baseline | 150 | 650 | 567 | 182 | 40 | 2 | 30 | 109 | 72 | 5 | 116 | 4 | 2 | .320 | .397 | .555 | .953 | 116 | 31 | 48 |
| 35% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 175 | 37 | 1 | 27 | 103 | 67 | 4 | 121 | 3 | 4 | .308 | .379 | .521 | .899 | 106 | 20 | 37 |
| 20% | 150 | 650 | 567 | 168 | 34 | 1 | 24 | 98 | 63 | 3 | 127 | 2 | 4 | .296 | .360 | .486 | .846 | 95 | 10 | 27 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
pBRaa/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above average, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
pBRaR/650: Position-adjusted batting runs above replacement, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
Remember the last third baseman the Yankees had? I'm forgetting his name right now, but Cabrera projects to be about 5 runs less valuable on offense, so getting Cabrera would definitely fill the offensive hole at third base.
Another thing to factor in is Cabrera's age. He will be 25 in 2008. He's not likely to get much better than he is right now, but he's a very good bet for continued excellent performance for the next 5-10 years. Here's Cabrera's 6 year CAIRO forecast.
| 5 Yr | Age | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBRaa/650 | pBRaR/650 |
| 2008 | 25 | 153 | 650 | 567 | 182 | 40 | 2 | 30 | 109 | 72 | 5 | 116 | 4 | 2 | .320 | .397 | .555 | .953 | 116 | 32 | 49 |
| 2009 | 26 | 154 | 663 | 577 | 186 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 116 | 74 | 6 | 117 | 4 | 2 | .322 | .400 | .566 | .966 | 121 | 33 | 50 |
| 2010 | 27 | 152 | 654 | 569 | 183 | 41 | 2 | 32 | 114 | 73 | 6 | 114 | 4 | 2 | .322 | .401 | .566 | .967 | 119 | 33 | 51 |
| 2011 | 28 | 154 | 662 | 574 | 182 | 41 | 2 | 31 | 113 | 76 | 6 | 115 | 4 | 2 | .316 | .398 | .556 | .954 | 118 | 31 | 48 |
| 2012 | 29 | 151 | 648 | 563 | 176 | 39 | 1 | 31 | 110 | 74 | 6 | 114 | 3 | 2 | .312 | .394 | .550 | .944 | 114 | 30 | 47 |
| 2013 | 30 | 148 | 635 | 552 | 171 | 38 | 1 | 30 | 108 | 73 | 6 | 113 | 3 | 2 | .310 | .394 | .546 | .941 | 111 | 29 | 46 |
Cabrera's defense at third base rates pretty poorly by zone rating.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Innings | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2003 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 20 | 34 | 30 | 275 | 17 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 55 | 68 | .809 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 2005 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 22 | 30 | 29 | 238 | 21 | 46 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 65 | .754 | -2 | -2 | -12 |
| 2006 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 23 | 157 | 157 | 1334 | 114 | 266 | 17 | 33 | 291 | 389 | .748 | -14 | -11 | -12 |
| 2007 | NL | Fla | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 24 | 153 | 152 | 1311 | 100 | 266 | 23 | 33 | 290 | 406 | .714 | -24 | -19 | -21 |
| 2008 | Projection | ??? | 3B | Miguel Cabrera | 25 | 115 | 112 | 965 | 78 | 195 | 14 | 23 | 212 | 288 | .736 | -12 | -10 | -14 |
Offense plus defense, Cabrera's probably worth about four wins above a replacement third baseman for the next five to six years. He's also due to get a lot more expensive going forward. I'd love to have him in the middle of the Yankee lineup, but I'd hate to have his defense at third base. I'd think he might be a good fit in RF or 1B. I'm also thinking that moving to a different team and situation may help him get motivated again which could help his defense a bit, but who knows?
If the Yankees could get Cabrera for Ian Kennedy+ without losing Hughes or Chamberlain, I'd be very tempted to do it, but the Marlins are pretty shrewd talent evaluators. They saw something in Hanley Ramirez that had not been borne out in his performance to date and have been rewarded for it. I think someone will overpay for Cabrera in talent, but it won't be the Yankees. They seem very hesitant to trade any of the chips that would be required to get a player of Cabrera's magnitude.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
So Now What?
I'm disappointed to see Alex Rodriguez gone. In the short-term the Yankees will probably be about five wins worse in 2008 because of it. Long-term though, I don't think this is a bad thing. Rodriguez will be 32 in 2008. The rumored extension the Yankees were talking about would have locked up Rodriguez through his late 30s, at a cost of close to $30 million a year. The Yankees apparently felt that he was worth it, but I don't know if that was really the case. For everyone that hates the Damon and Giambi contracts, you'd probably feel the same way about the Rodriguez contract in a few years.I don't begrudge Rodriguez for his salary or for opting out. He negotiated both things from his employers as was his right. Why should fans get upset that players are "overpaid" when the money that doesn't go to them just goes into the pockets of the owners? Or do we really think the noble owners wouldn't raise prices if they didn't have to pay the players as much as they do? Maybe Rodriguez wants to own a team at some point. Maybe he wants to do a lot of things that will require every penny he can get together. Baseball is not just a game, it's a business, for the teams and the players. And any Yankee fan that feels sorry for themselves for seeing Rodriguez walk should look in the mirror and remember all the players the Yankees have taken from other teams in the past. Lastly, with the way Rodriguez has been treated by many fans and the media in New York, who could blame him if he wanted to leave? Check out the A-Rod cover counter, 125 covers and counting...
Rodriguez was an important part of the team for the last four years. He will not be an easy piece to replace, but I think the Yankees need to move on. To go back on their word now just makes them look weak and indecisive.
So what are the Yankees losing? First off, realistically they're not losing the 2007 version of Alex Rodriguez. That version of Rodriguez was the most valuable player in the league, but he was also a version of Alex Rodriguez that has never happened in the past and who will likely not happen in the future. It was a career year for a Hall of Fame player, but all we have to do is look at 2004 and 2006 to see that Rodriguez probably isn't that good. As far as projecting Rodriguez in 2008, I went through the numbers already here. In 2008, Rodriguez projected to be worth somewhere around 120 runs using linear weights, compared to the 150 or so he was worth in 2007. Defensively I had him projected to be a touch below average, around -3.
Forget about the idea of moving Robinson Cano to third. It is dumb. He's a plus defender at second base already and is comfortable there, and it's not like the Yankees have someone they could slot in at second if they move him. The obvious in-house candidate is Wilson Betemit.
Here's a look at Betemit's range of CAIRO projections for 2008, pro-rated to 650 plate appearances.
| % | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBR/650 |
| 80% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 173 | 39 | 5 | 31 | 105 | 81 | 2 | 122 | 4 | 2 | .302 | .395 | .548 | .942 | 115 | 30 |
| 65% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 163 | 35 | 4 | 26 | 97 | 74 | 1 | 132 | 3 | 2 | .284 | .366 | .495 | .862 | 100 | 15 |
| Baseline | 150 | 650 | 574 | 152 | 30 | 2 | 22 | 89 | 67 | 1 | 143 | 2 | 2 | .265 | .338 | .443 | .781 | 85 | 0 |
| 35% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 142 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 81 | 60 | 0 | 153 | 1 | 5 | .247 | .310 | .391 | .701 | 69 | -16 |
| 20% | 150 | 650 | 574 | 131 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 73 | 53 | 0 | 163 | 0 | 5 | .228 | .282 | .338 | .621 | 54 | -31 |
A few things about these #s. Betemit's platoon splits are extreme (career .268/.347/.464 vs RHP, .232/.281/.353 vs LHP). When projecting any platoon player into a full-time role their statistics may overstate their talent. I think Betemit can be the Yankee 3B against right-handers and put up a league average line for a 3B, but I think he'll be overexposed if he's playing against lefties.
Even Betemit's 80% projection is worse than Alex Rodriguez's baseline projection. Rodriguez projects to be about 36 runs above an average 3B on offense. Betemit's 80% projection has him at 30 runs above average, but more likely he should be right around average.
Here's the defensive comparison between the two.
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2004 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 29 | 155 | 155 | 1364 | 100 | 262 | 13 | 25 | 286 | 364 | .786 | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 2005 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 29 | 161 | 161 | 1385 | 115 | 288 | 12 | 26 | 321 | 436 | .736 | -15 | -12 | -13 |
| 2006 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 30 | 151 | 148 | 1288 | 96 | 262 | 24 | 24 | 289 | 390 | .741 | -10 | -8 | -9 |
| 2007 | AL | NYY | 3B | Rodriguez | 31 | 154 | 154 | 1330 | 106 | 251 | 13 | 30 | 283 | 370 | .765 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Projection | 32 | 156 | 154 | 1336 | 104 | 266 | 16 | 27 | 295 | 390 | .755 | -3 | -3 | -3 |
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2004 | NL | Atl | 3B | Betemit | 22 | 7 | 4 | 39 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 1.000 | 2 | 1 | 47 |
| 2005 | NL | Atl | 3B | Betemit | 23 | 63 | 46 | 431 | 26 | 94 | 6 | 6 | 103 | 124 | .831 | 5 | 4 | 13 |
| 2006 | NL | Atl/LA | 3B | Betemit | 24 | 79 | 65 | 602 | 32 | 123 | 7 | 18 | 124 | 160 | .775 | -2 | -1 | -2 |
| 2007 | AL/NL | LA/NYY | 3B | Betemit | 25 | 63 | 50 | 454 | 25 | 97 | 6 | 12 | 98 | 128 | .766 | -2 | -2 | -6 |
| 2008 | Projection | 26 | 50 | 39 | 354 | 22 | 71 | 4 | 7 | 75 | 97 | .777 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM+/-: Difference between PM and an average defender's PM
RS: Runs Saved
RS/162: Runs Saved pro-rated to 162 games
Betemit has only played the equivalent of one full season at third base, so I'm not sure how much faith we can have in his defensive statistics to this point. He projects to be about a smidgen better than Rodriguez defensively, so that's good at least.
If I were running the Yankees, I'd see if Morgan Ensberg gets non-tendered by San Diego. He had a down year this year but he's pretty good defender at third historically and he hits lefties very well(career .284/.406/.530 vs LHP). If he's not non-tendered, maybe an Igawa/Ensberg swap would work for both teams. Here's Ensberg's range of CAIRO projections for 2008.
| % | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BR | pBR/650 |
| 80% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 158 | 34 | 4 | 34 | 107 | 104 | 7 | 100 | 6 | 5 | .288 | .413 | .549 | .962 | 118 | 33 |
| 65% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 151 | 30 | 3 | 31 | 101 | 98 | 6 | 107 | 5 | 5 | .275 | .391 | .508 | .899 | 106 | 21 |
| Baseline | 150 | 650 | 550 | 143 | 27 | 2 | 27 | 95 | 92 | 4 | 113 | 4 | 5 | .261 | .368 | .467 | .835 | 94 | 9 |
| 35% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 136 | 24 | 1 | 24 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 120 | 3 | 7 | .247 | .345 | .427 | .772 | 82 | -3 |
| 20% | 150 | 650 | 550 | 128 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 83 | 80 | 2 | 127 | 1 | 7 | .234 | .323 | .386 | .709 | 70 | -15 |
And Ensberg's defensive projection:
| YEAR | LG | Tm | POS | Player Name | Age | GP | GS | Inn | PO | A | E | DP | PM | CH | ZR | PM +/- | RS | RS/162 |
| 2008 | NL | SD | 3B | Ensberg | 32 | 105 | 94 | 848 | 69 | 188 | 12 | 20 | 204 | 259 | .785 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Even at Ensberg's 35% CAIRO projection a Betemit/Ensberg platoon would probably give the Yankees an above average 3B situation, maybe a win or so above average. That's still a 3-4 win downgrade from Rodriguez, but it would mean 3B isn't a big problem. Ensberg may even recover enough from a down 2007 to deserve the full-time role, although at age 32 I wouldn't bet on it.
With Rodriguez and Posada I had the Yankees projected to score around 930 runs next season. If they retain Posada and replace Rodriguez with Betemit/Ensberg I'd probably put them at 890 runs or so. If they can get better pitching in 2008 I don't see any reason they shouldn't be a wild card contender. Keeping Posada is a must for that though.
So get off the ledge. Losing Rodriguez hurts, but it's not a crippling blow. The Yankees could look to strengthen first base a little to make up for some of the lost offense, but they will likely sink or swim based on the performance of their young pitchers, and any attempt to project how that will work out is going to have huge error bars. If Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy all manage to develop into average or above starters things may just be be OK. If they don't, then the Yankees will miss the postseason. If that happens, it won't be the end of the world. Ask any Red Sox fan if missing the playoffs in 2006 ruined their enjoyment of 2007.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Santana/Yankees Trade Rumor
I'm not one to dwell much on trade rumors. I don't have 'sources' and 95% of the stuff we hear never comes to pass. But what the hell, it's the offseason and I've got blogger's block, so let's look at the trade rumor that was first posted at MLB Trade Rumors.Additionally, the Yankees may make a big play for Aaron Rowand. They believe a package of Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Ian Kennedy would entice the Twins for Johan Santana. That's a huge price, but doesn't seem out of line to me for the best pitcher in baseball.
I can't speak to MLB Trade Rumors' credibility, but they have a site and they do their thing and at the very least it spurs some discussion. Ignoring the site's credibility or lack thereof, it's an interesting question. Is Rowand + Santana + lots of money gone worth Wang/Kennedy/Melky?
As a fan, I don't like this trade. Santana should stay a Twin, and Wang, Kennedy and Melky should stay Yankees. It's more fun to root for players who broke through on your team and it's a shame that someone like Santana won't be able to stay a Twin. However, if Santana decides he wants to leave, then I'd rather see him come to the Yankees than go to the Red Sox or Mets.
So let's look at the pitching side of the deal first. Here are the CAIRO projections for Santana, Wang, and Kennedy.
| Player | AGE | TEAM | LG | Prole | Prole | ERA | ERA+ | G | W | L | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | RS |
| Johan Santana | 29 | MIN | AL | S | S | 3.34 | 130 | 37 | 14 | 11 | 221 | 199 | 82 | 27 | 50 | 233 | 56 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 28 | NYA | AL | S | S | 3.93 | 114 | 35 | 15 | 7 | 202 | 210 | 88 | 12 | 56 | 95 | 38 |
| Ian Kennedy | 23 | NYA | AL | S | S | 4.36 | 103 | 53 | 13 | 8 | 190 | 192 | 92 | 23 | 75 | 146 | 27 |
In the table above, RS is runs saved above a replacement pitcher (5.62 ERA). 221 innings of Santana is worth about 5.6 wins above a replacement starter. 392 innings of Wang and Kennedy is worth about 6.5 wins. To replace the missing innings between Santana and Wang/Kennedy the Yankees need 171 innings of 5.17 ERA. That doesn't seem particularly difficult to find. Just avoid Sean Henn, Jeff Karstens and Kei Igawa.
How about losing Melky and replacing him with Rowand?
Rowand had a good year for Philly, but at age 30 it would be folly to expect the same going forward. Here's a look at three different CAIRO projections. The first two are for Rowand's baseline projection as a Phillie and then as a Yankee. For Melky it's his baseline projection as a Yankee.
| Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| Aaron Rowand | PHI | 140 | 569 | 513 | 148 | 34 | 2 | 18 | 80 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .288 | .345 | .470 | .815 | 11 |
| Aaron Rowand | NYA | 140 | 569 | 513 | 147 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 77 | 34 | 98 | 9 | 3 | .286 | .344 | .457 | .800 | 8 |
| Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
Swapping out Rowand for Melky projects to be somewhere around a one win upgrade on offense. On defense I have Rowand projected to be a +7 defender and Melky a +4, so that's another couple of runs but not enough to be a big difference.
Here's one last set of projections, Melky's range of CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO | Player | Tm | G | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | pBR/650 |
| 80% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 172 | 34 | 8 | 14 | 83 | 63 | 64 | 15 | 4 | .308 | .379 | .472 | .852 | 26 |
| 65% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 155 | 629 | 559 | 164 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 77 | 58 | 70 | 13 | 4 | .294 | .360 | .438 | .797 | 11 |
| Baseline | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 140 | 565 | 502 | 141 | 25 | 5 | 9 | 64 | 48 | 67 | 10 | 4 | .281 | .341 | .403 | .743 | -3 |
| 35% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 135 | 544 | 484 | 129 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 43 | 69 | 8 | 3 | .267 | .321 | .368 | .689 | -11 |
| 20% | Melky Cabrera | NYA | 129 | 523 | 465 | 118 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 50 | 37 | 71 | 6 | 2 | .253 | .302 | .333 | .635 | -18 |
I like Melky a lot, but that 80% projectile looks very unlikely. However, I think his 65% projection is very achievable, in which case he'd be just as valuable as Rowand.
Ignoring contracts for a minute, Santana plus 171 innings of
Now, let's look at contracts. Any trade for Santana is going to include a contract extension at probably at least $17 million a year for four or five years. Rowand is going to probably get at least a Gary Matthews Jr. type contract, 5 years and $50 million. Could be more, could be less, but that seems like what the market will bear for a good defensive CF who had a solid offensive season.
It just doesn't make sense. I think Santana's great. I'd love to have him as a Yankee if he leaves the Twins, but adding $25 million in payroll for one win in 2008 just doesn't seem rational. Not when you are likely going to have to overpay to keep some combination of A-Rod, Posada, and Mo. Of course adding Santana makes the Yankees a better postseason team if they make it, because Santana projects to be one of the top two or three pitchers in the AL. He's also just a year older than Wang, but with a lot more mileage on his arm.
Besides, the Twins have lots of young pitching on the way. I'd think they would rather get young position players than pitchers.
Friday, October 12, 2007
North Jersey: Yanks seem set to let Torre go
NEW YORK—The wait to discover Joe Torre’s managerial fate will carry through the weekend. In a few days, the Yankees will transfer the whole show to Tampa, where organizational meetings are expected to begin Tuesday.
Topic A is Torre, though the buzz from Legends Field to the Bronx still wasn’t very positive for the man who guided the Yanks to 12 straight postseasons.
...
The feeling is that too many opinions of key club officials would have to be altered to prevent a managerial change—an extremely tall order.
For everyone tired of the Alex Rodriguez story, there’s the Joe Torre story.
I have not opined on whether or not the Yankees keep Torre. First off, I don’t think Torre can be blamed in any way for the ALDS loss to Cleveland. The Yankees got outplayed by a better team overall, and no manager would have gotten a better performance out of Chien-Ming Wang, which was a huge culprit in the series loss.
Torre has good and bad points, just like any manager. I’m fairly certain that the collective fan bases of every single team dislikes a lot of the things their team’s managers do. I respect and like Joe Torre as a person. He’s been the manager for the most successful period of Yankees history that I can recall. He does some great work with his Joe Torre Safe at Home Foundation, and I think in most cases he does a great job of protecting most of his team from the media (although I think that took a hit last year with his treatment of Rodriguez in a Sports Illustrated article and when he batted Rodriguez 8th in the ALDS against Detroit). That being said, I think that he is not a good tactical manager in certain areas. My chief complaints with Torre are that he is too enamored with small-ball tactics at times and I don’t think he manages his bullpen well. Whether that outweighs the things that he may be good at, I have no idea. If the Yankees are really ready for a youth movement, Torre may not be the right man for the job.
I love Mariano Rivera. He’s my favorite Yankee. I absolutely do not blame Mo for standing up for Torre. It’s his right to do it, and it’s completely understandable why he would do it. Anyone blasting Rivera for this should remember the fact that it was Torre who broke Mo in and it was Torre who made Mo what he is today. This is just further proof of what a stand-up guy Rivera is. However, I don’t think the Yankees should bring Torre back just to appease Rivera or anyone else. They need to make a decision on if keeping Torre is a better option than replacing him with someone else. Players should not dictate organization direction, they should play.
The two most likely candidates to replace Torre seem to be Don Mattingly and Joe Girardi. There are also rumblings that the Yankees are considering Tony LaRussa and Bobby Valentine. In my personal order of preference of those four candidates I’d probably favor Girardi, then Valentine, then Mattingly, then LaRussa. I’m not a big fan of LaRussa, but as several posters have mentioned that would also probably mean bringing in Dave Duncan as a pitching coach. Duncan has a good reputation although it is mainly based on his work with veterans. I’m not sure if he’s the right pitching coach to entrust with the development of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Picking the 2007 Postseason Roster
Now that the Yankees are officially in the playoffs, I can finally talk about the postseason roster. With the injuries to Carl Pavano, Darrell Rasner, Humberto Sanchez, and Andy Phillips, the Yankees basically have the flexibility to use anyone they want from their 40 man roster. Here’s a look at the candidates, with the players on the bubble separated out.
Starting Pitchers(4)
Andy Pettitte
Roger Clemens
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike Mussina
Relief Pitchers(5)
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Hughes
Kyle Farnsworth
Luis Vizcaino
On the Bubble
Chris Britton
Brian Bruney
Tyler Clippard
Matt DeSalvo
Chase Wright
Jose Veras
Ron Villone
Sean Henn
Kei Igawa
Jeff Karstens
Ian Kennedy
Ross Ohlendorf
Edwar Ramirez
Catchers(2)
Jose Molina
Jorge Posada
Infielders(5)
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Doug Mientkiewicz
Alex Rodriguez
Wilson Betemit
On the Bubble
Alberto Gonzalez
Outfielders (5)
Bobby Abreu
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Shelley Duncan
Hideki Matsui
On the Bubble
Bronson Sardinha
Designated Hitters(1)
Jason Giambi
There are 22 players I consider locks to make the roster, four starting pitchers, five relievers, two catchers, five infielders, five outfielders, and one DH. That gives the Yanks three slots to fill. If it were up to me, I’d take two more pitchers and one position player.
The position player seems like an easy choice to me, if choosing between Alberto Gonzalez or Bronson Sardinha I’d take the more valuable defensive player. Either can pinch-run, but Gonzalez gives the Yankees a little more depth in case of multiple injuries to their starting infielders.
The pitching situation is a little less clear-cut. Phil Hughes slots in as a long reliever, but the rest of the choices are mainly short relievers and that’s a concern with a gimpy Roger Clemens and Mike “Box of Chocolates” Mussina taking two starts. Because of this, one of the extra relievers should probably be someone who can pitch multiple innings. Out of the players on the bubble, the best choices for that kind of role in my mind are Kei Igawa or Ron Villone. Neither inspires much confidence, but we have to remember that you don’t have to win every single game in the playoffs, you just have to win 3 or 4 before your opponent does. If Clemens can’t go past the second inning, odds are the game is lost but you don’t want to have to burn out your bullpen either. The off days built into the schedule mitigate that to some degree. The other thing the Yankees should do is break up Pettitte and Wang. Since they’ll be starting on the road, I’d start Pettitte in game one, Clemens in game two, and Wang in game three at home. However, to be safe I think the Yankees should take Igawa. I know he hasn’t been good this year, but he could come into a game in the early innings and pitch 5 or 6 innings and put the Yankees in a position to win the next game. Now all the readers can proceed to tell me I’m insane.
That leaves one other pitcher to take. Ian Kennedy’s hurt so scratch him. Realistically it comes down to taking one of Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Jose Veras, Villone, Ross Ohlendorf or Edwar Ramirez.
Britton - had success in the AL East last year and did well in AAA this season. For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to be well-regarded by the organization right now, and his stuff isn’t really that great for a short reliever.
Bruney - You know the deal with this guy. Great fastball, horrendous command.
Veras - See Bruney, although with a slightly better breaking pitch. I swear I have not seen Veras hit the catcher’s target on a single pitch yet this season.
Villone - Chock full of veterany-goodness. Hasn’t been horrible this year, but his control scares the hell out of me and he has a very high likelihood to implode in any given outing.
Ohlendorf - He’s looked pretty good so far in the majors, but it’s only been three innings. He’s got good stuff but his minor league numbers are pretty bad, but he was injured for much of the year and converted from a starter to a reliever so that should be considered.
Ramirez - I was pulling like hell for Edwar to come up the majors and succeed, but he still needs to work on his approach IMO. Until he can consistently get ahead in the count and make optimal use of his killer changeup, I wouldn’t have any faith in him in a tight spot. He does have strikeout ability (29 Ks in 19.3 innings), but he also has giving up HR ability (6 in 19.3 innings). He’s probably pitched himself off the postseason roster at this point.
Not a very inspiring bunch. I’d imagine we’ll get a healthy dose of all of these guys over the last four games of the year to see if one becomes a hot hand. I find Ohlendorf the most intriguing of this group, so he’d probably be my pick.
I’d like to see what other people would do instead of me, so let’s hear it…
Friday, September 7, 2007
NY Daily News: Yanks’ hopes rest on rookie arms and pitching by committee
There have been glimmers of hope that the rotation will roll, like when Pettitte, Roger Clemens and Chien-Ming Wang combined for a 1.80 ERA in last month’s sweep of the Red Sox. But three of the next four starts, including one apiece by Pettitte and Clemens, were duds.
“It’s amazing how quickly it can look ugly, right?” Pettitte said.
But that downturn was followed by good outings from Wang and Phil Hughes. Tonight, Ian Kennedy, who had a fabulous debut last weekend against Tampa Bay, starts against the Royals.
Kennedy and Hughes give the Yankees two rookies in their rotation, spots that used to be held by more experienced, playoff-hardened pitchers.
I’d rather see rookies like Hughes and Kennedy out there than Jaret Wright starting an elimination game in the playoffs, but I’m weird like that.
Seriously, Pettitte and Wang should be a decent 1-2 punch, then you just throw in the pitchers who are throwing the best at the end of the season in the 3-4 slots, be it Clemens, Kennedy, Hughes, or (snicker) Moose. If the Yankees make the playoffs that is, which I’m still not sure about.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Ian Kennedy’s Debut
The Good: Kennedy’s velocity was a bit better than the “high 80s” thrown around by some in the prospect analysis community. In actuality, the range on his fastball was 87-92, which is more in line with the reports from Pinstripes Plus than anywhere else, so kudos to Patrick, Frankie, and the rest of the guys over there. The average velocity of the 54 fastballs thrown was 90.5. In addition to showcasing solid-good velocity, Kennedy had great fastball command. The home plate ump was a bit inconsistent, on both sides, but Kennedy did a great job of hitting the corners with his fastball.
Ian also showed flashes with his Vulcan change. The movement to the pitch was a bit funky because he places the ball between his middle and ring finger, forming the V for Vulcan. This was the pitch that he was able to fool left-handers with. Overall, he did a good job with this pitch.
The Bad: Kennedy also flashed his slider, curveball, and sinker on Saturday. On this day, I would say the slider probably showed the most promise. Despite that, I don’t think any of these pitches looked especially great (Don, don’t kill me). While the pitches themselves showed promise, Kennedy left more than his fair share of them up in the zone, so his command wasn’t great with respect to this portion of his arsenal. Fortunately, the Devil Rays were not able to take advantage of this and he escaped largely unscathed.
The Verdict: I was very pleased with Kennedy’s debut and feel he showed enough to warrant another start. With Hughes’ current struggles, I wouldn’t mind if the Yankees kept the 5-man rotation in tact just to have a better idea of who has the hot hand heading into October between the two rookies. I think Hughes has more long-term potential, but if at the end of the month the Yankees are in the playoffs and Kennedy has performed superior, he should get the post-season nod.
***
-The minor league season is, essentially, over. Austin Jackson was promoted to AAA as a reward for his great year and Marcos Vechionacci to AA as a reward for his hot finish. Both players will, almost assuredly, start next year for Trenton. AA will have its best collection of position player talent in quite some time between those two and Jose Tabata.
-The GCL Yankees won their league championship for what seems like the 12th time in the last 4 years. Jesus Montero, who very quietly had a good season, killed the ball in a small playoff sample. He hit .280/.366/.421 in 107 regular season ABs and then went 6 for 16 with a double, 2 homers, 2 walks and 4 Ks. Just a very solid year for a guy some wanted to write off so soon after being regarded as the best prospect on the international market.
-On a final, “funny” note, here at RLYW and within the Yankee blogosphere we’re all worried about Phil Hughes’ velocity. Hughes has been pitching at 90-93, touching 94. Within these same communities, we’re also all pleased with Kennedy’s velocity during his first game where he was 89-92. Over in Red Sox land, everyone is in love with Clay Bucholz. Bucholz is sitting 90-93. I’m not going to ignore that more troubling than Hughes’ velocity range has been his tendency to tire quickly, but for those who are dismayed regarding Hughes’ overall velocity…please calm down. Now, if only he could regain some feel for the change, we wouldn’t even have to have this discussion.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
**Breaking** BBTN: Kennedy to Start Saturday
Looks like all those obits for Mussina were warranted because according to Baseball Tonight, the third of the Yanks three young aces - Ian Patrick Kennedy - will make his big league debut on Saturday.
This is significant for three reasons - first, a cup of coffee will do the kid good, and he’s pitched his balls off this year - Kennedy sports a combined 12-3 record with a 1.91 ERA and a roughly 3-to-1 K/BB ratio at three levels, so he obviously knows what he’s doing.
Second, it underlines the fact that Joe is probably Dead Torre Walking. Less than 24 hours ago, he was saying that Kennedy definitely wouldn’t come up, and now, boom here he is. Joe’s systematically had his toys taken away and his authority undermined from on high… looks like he’s a goner for sure.
And finally, it sets up an interesting situation, one that Yankee fans should relish. They are competing for a playoff spot with three homegrown starters under the age of 27 and two of them being under 22. Their most effective non-Panamanian reliever is a 21 draftee. All of their up-the-middle players are homegrown, and two are in their early 20s.
Despite how this season might turn out, it’s an exciting time to be a Yankee fan.
In other gratifying news, slug and former Yankee Drew Henson was cut by his 100th NFL team the other day.
UPDATE: Pete Abe confirms. Adds that Moose won’t be DL’ed or relegated to the ‘pen, he’ll just continue working on the side.
UPDATE TWO: One of the commenters at River Ave Blues (who all must be losing their minds with joy right now) said this was Cashman going all in. I think that’s an appropriate characterization of the move and in fact I was thinking of another NY sports guy and his “going all in moment.” and that somebody on the Yankees needed to do something to fire up the troops. The situations are similar, a team, hits a slide about 3/4 way through the season, but then *bang* has this moment and off they go. The first clip is good, but my guy takes the stage at the 1:19 mark.
Monday, August 27, 2007
So, who gets Moose’s spot in the Rotation?
Obviously, Mike Mussina was again awful tonight. With the Yankees in jeopardy of missing the postseason, it's very likely that they may not risk running him out there again in his next turn.So that of course begs the question, who can start in his stead? According to Jayson Stark, the following pitchers have cleared waivers:
Steve Trachsel, Jose Contreras, Josh Towers, Odalis Perez.
None of those guys seem like much of a choice, so here's a list of the possible in-house candidates and their MLEs (major league equivlancies) plus any time they've spent in the majors this year.
| Last | First | W | L | S | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| *Kennedy | Ian | 8 | 7 | 0 | 4.15 | 26 | 25 | 141 | 131 | 65 | 14 | 66 | 109 |
| *White | Steven | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5.01 | 17 | 16 | 97 | 113 | 54 | 11 | 34 | 41 |
| DeSalvo | Matt | 6 | 10 | 0 | 5.02 | 25 | 24 | 127 | 135 | 71 | 11 | 73 | 74 |
| Wright | Chase | 7 | 12 | 0 | 6.25 | 26 | 25 | 144 | 171 | 100 | 32 | 77 | 59 |
| Igawa | Kei | 5 | 8 | 0 | 6.26 | 24 | 23 | 132 | 156 | 92 | 32 | 51 | 99 |
| Clippard | Tyler | 6 | 7 | 0 | 6.37 | 24 | 24 | 113 | 134 | 80 | 22 | 67 | 69 |
Ian Kennedy is the best option according to these numbers, but the Yankees are supposedly not considering him since he's up against an innings cap. Next up are Steven White and Matt DeSalvo. White has always had a reputation for having good stuff, but never the results to go with it. Also a consideration, neither Kennedy or White are on the 40 man roster so a move would have to be made. That's not a huge deal, I'm sure they can DFA someone like Jim Brower.
We've seen DeSalvo, Wright, Clippard, and Igawa and none have been very good. If I had to choose one of them I'd probably try Igawa again.
I suppose the Yankees should try White on the off-chance that unfamiliarity and plus stuff translates to a few good starts. Other than that, I'd run Igawa out there on the condition that he pitches six innings every start, regardless of how bad he is. The Yankees cannot afford to get three inning starts going forward.
Mussina's body has failed him. He lost his fastball, and he hasn't been able to compensate. It's not his fault, and I don't think his character should be criticized. I thought keeping Moose was a smart idea at the time, although I preferred the Yankees picking up his option and paying a bit more for a one year committment, in case this happened. He still projected to be at least an average starter this year.
The AL East race is basically over now. Unless the Yankees sweep Boston in the series starting tomorrow they don't have a chance. The playoff chase is still very much alive though, so I'm not about to give up on this team yet. .
Sunday, July 29, 2007
Joba To The Pen
-So, I’m sure most of you have heard by now, but Joba Chamberlain has been moved to the Scranton bullpen. The Yankees have said that the move is to see if he can help them out of the big league pen this year, but that his long term future is as a starter. I have mixed feelings about this move. On the one hand, it would be awesome if Joba could help the team this year because Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor aren’t QUITE getting the job done. On the other hand, working out of the bullpen is something Joba is not used to and he’s about to be asked to do this in the big leagues, in a playoff race, in New York, 1 year out of college. How Torre will use Joba also needs to be considered. I’m not the biggest fan of Joe Torre’s bullpen management because he tends to overuse guys when they’re going well and under use them if he doesn’t trust them. Ideally, I think the Yankee brass would have liked to have Edwar Ramirez in this spot, but since Torre was determined not to use him, they’re going to Joba. I hope this works out and that this doesn’t impact his long term ability to be a starter. He needs more time to refine his game, but has overpowering raw stuff, so maybe this will all work out. I would love to see SG run some sort of MLE projection of what Joba can contribute…taking into account guys getting better when they go to the pen and such things. Thanks, SG.
-Ian Kennedy was very good in his first AAA start. Ian has done a terrific job in the minors this season, but guys with average fastballs don’t get shots to help out the bullpen. One thing that I do like though is that Kennedy is being given the opportunity to get his innings totals so that, hopefully, it won’t be too difficult for him to transition to a 6-month season next year. This is something that Joba or Hughes may struggle with next year due to their relatively light workloads.
-Speaking of Phil…Phil didn’t seem to have his best command today, missing off the edges a bit, but still got the job done. He kept the ball down in the zone, even when missing, and was able to turn in a Wang-ian performance. Hughes’ next start will be in the big leagues and not a moment too soon. The Kei Igawa Experience has been…underwhelming.
-Looks like I jumped the gun on Austin Jackson cooling down. He’s swinging at everything and hitting it hard, impressive stuff.
-Jesus Montero has had a nice start to his pro career, .282/.364/.487 in 39 ABs with a 5:8 BB:K ratio.
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Rushing?
-Phil Hughes was terrific tonight. His fastball was in the low 90s all night and he was locating it to the corners. He was getting both of his curveballs over for strikes and swings and misses and he even did a solid job of flashing the change. He might need one more outing to get his pitch count up, but stuff wise he’s good to go. The sooner the better, I tire of Kei Igawa.
-I don’t think Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain are being rushed. They’ve both done enough this season to convince me that they’re better than AA. At the same time, I do think they’re being rushed. Neither has demonstrated that they’re at a level where there is nothing more that they can learn from the AA experience. I would think the Yankees realize this, but feel that the promotion is a necessary step in figuring out how close these two are to contributing to next year’s rotation. For Joba, it is also probably a test to see how much he might help this year’s bullpen. Considering this, I support the promotions.
-To clarify, when I made my comment about Clippard losing his shot to be a part of the Yankee rotation I didn’t mean that he would never recover. Clippard has less stuff than Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy (probably). However, prior to this year he was more ready as far as inning totals and minor league level. Now, all 3 of those guys are ahead of him in terms of readiness, which means they are more than likely going to get full shots at a rotation spot before he does. Even assuming injuries, just having guys ahead of him lessens his shot.
-Despite rocky outings his last two times out, I’m curious as to how well Alan Horne has to pitch before he gets Ross Ohlendorf’s AAA rotation spot.
-After a terrible mid-season slump, Francisco Cervelli seems to be getting back on track. He’s 10 for his last 30 with 2 doubles, a triple, a homer, 2 walks, and 5 Ks.
-After a tremendous start, Austin Jackson has cooled down. He’s only hitting .256 with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts in his last 10 games. Hopefully, he can start drawing walks again so he’s not using up as many outs.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Ryan Bradley Memorial
http://blog.nj.com/ledgeryankees/2007/07/chamberlain_kennedy_promoted.html
Kenney and Chamberlain were promoted to AAA with Wright and Clippard moved down to AA. This move speaks volumes about how highly the Yankees think of these two. The Wright demotion makes perfect sense, in my opinion, but I would have liked to see Clippard get some more time to overcome whatever problems he’s facing. It looks like any shot he ever had at consistent rotation time is now gone.
More later.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Ian Kennedy Fails His 1st Test
Injuries/News:
Jose Tabata has missed the last two games for Tampa with some minor nicks/bruises/soreness/whatever you want to call it. He’s fine…On another note; I would love to know where Tim Norton and George Kontos have been…Tyler Clippard was solid tonight. He did a much better job commanding his fastball, but is still not where he needs to be. He doesn’t seem to be ready yet, but hopefully he can continue to defy his peripherals. I’m surprised/disappointed Joe took him out as early as he did, but I guess he figured he was guaranteed to get 7+ innings out of Wang in the next game.
AAA:
Chase Wright took the mound for Scranton and was effective. Wright’s final line of 5.2-5-3-3-2-6-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR) was better than any of his recent outings and solid pitching overall. Wright now has 1 more K than BB at the AAA level. Today was a big day for him. Coming in to relieve Wright was Edwar Ramirez. Ramirez was scored upon for the 2nd game in a row, which is weird. His line was 2.1-2-1-1-1-2-0. One of the hits he gave up was a double to Andy Marte, which could be a good or bad thing depending on whether you still think Marte is a rising star or if his time has come and gone. Anyway, Ramirez is now at 13-8-2-2-4-19-0 at the AAA level. Britton is up, so Ramirez is next guy to campaign for.
Alberto Gonzalez led off and was 1 for 6, while Eric Duncan was 2 for 5 with a walk and a strikeout. Duncan is hitting .300+ over his last 13 or so games. Needs more power and more average. The discipline and patience are excellent.
AA:
Cody Ehlers had a tough day at the plate, 0 for 5 with 3 strikeouts.
Ian Kennedy made his AA debut and there was some good and some bad in his 5-6-4-4-0-6-1 line. The home run was on a pitch that he didn’t get far enough in, which was bad. He was able to strike guys out painting corners and changing speeds, which was good. Kennedy’s performed very well this season, but I’m not THAT excited about him yet. I don’t think Clippard is a world beating prospect and I’m not sure I’d put Kennedy ahead of Clippard. I’m willing to be convinced otherwise, and once I can see him in person, I’ll be able to make a better judgment.
A+:
Colin Curtis and Juan Miranda continued to hit well, Reegie Corona continued to struggle, and Marcos Vechionacci continued being inconsistent. Vechionacci was 0 for 2 with a strikeout and a sac fly, following back to back 2 hit games. Reegie was 0 for 3 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Despite a recent 5 for 14 stretch, Corona is only hitting .178 in his last 10 games. Curtis was 2 for 3 with a walk and a steal and Miranda was 2 for 4 with a double and 2 strikeouts. Miranda is up to .270/.342/.475 and starting to look like he might not be a waste of money.
A-:
The Riverdogs put 12 runs and 18 hits on the board as just about everyone had a great night. 38 Games Hilligoss was 1 for 6 with 2 strikeouts, as he continues to cool down. Action Jackson was 2 for 6 with a double. Seth Fortenberry was 3 for 6 with a homer. Fortenberry needs to go to Tampa, I think. He’s already 23 and in addition to hitting .277/.372/.477 on the year, he is hitting about .290/.380/.510 since May 1st. Wilmer Pino was 3 for 5 and Jose Gil was 1 for 4 with a homer and a walk. Gil and Pino are both guys I’d like to see heat up considering my preseason faith in them.
Spotlight On:
Jeff Marquez getting the early morning start for Trenton. Marquez needs to start picking up the K rate.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Top Prospect Alert: 2007 New York Yankees Top 10 Prospects
Top Prospect Alert emailed me to let me know they’ve posted their top 10 Yankee prospect list. Ian Kennedy is racing up the charts, due to an apparent rediscovery of his velocity. Other names of note include Brett Smith, Jeff Marquez, and Alan Horne.
To me, Kennedy’s emergence is the best thing going on in the Yankee farm right now. He’s tearing it up in Tampa right now. His BB rate’s a little high, and he seems to be a fly ball pitcher which can be scary sometimes, but other than that he’s looking great.
I don’t have much to say about last night’s farce of a game, except to think that we’re all going to be counting down the days until Mike Mussina’s off the books.
Update: Just saw this story.
Sorry about steroids, Jason fails test for amphetamines. This blurb amuses me for some reason.
Because Major League Baseball’s amphetamines policy keeps a first positive test secret, however, it is unlikely Giambi will be asked about it when he meets with representatives from commissioner Bud Selig’s office, possibly as soon as tomorrow on the Yankees’ day off.
You have to love how well MLB keeps a secret. I guess Giambi shouldn’t have called out MLB officials for their tacit approval of PED use.
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Hughes’ AAA Debut
4.6.07 Review:
Phil Hughes made his AAA debut last night and did so in impressive fashion. He worked in the low 90s with his fastball and spotted it to the corners and was able to go to his curveball for swings and misses as well. While Nardi Contreras was recently quoted as saying he’s impressed with how much Hughes’ changeup has advanced this past spring, I wasn’t able to confirm or deny that because Hughes didn’t go to the pitch that much. He might have just been trying to keep it simple for his AAA debut. Another thing I picked up on Hughes was that he seemed focus to get the out at 2nd whenever the ball was tapped back to him and there was a runner on first. For the most part, this strategy worked out last night, but I’m not sure how great of a tendency this is. After all, the last thing we need is to endanger The Hitting Machine™.
Also impressing in the Scranton game was Eric Duncan. Duncan was only 1 for 4 in the box score, but the 1 was an impressive home run to right-center field. In addition, in the at bat prior to the homer, Duncan hit a long fly ball to left-center field. Every at bat was a quality one and Duncan is looking good thus far in 2007. I was once again pleased with his defensive play.
Alberto Gonzalez had another nondescript afternoon with the most noteworthy moment being the 4 pitch walk he drew in his first plate appearance. The odds of this happening again are probably not great. His two hits were also of the right place at the right time variety as he hit one off of the 2B, which was a play that could have been made, and the other was a tapper.
Around The Minors:
Elsewhere in the minors, Jeff Marquez started his season off with 5 no-hit innings before finally giving in in the 6th. I was very encouraged by the start for Marquez as I have him rated higher than everyone else and as long as he keeps his walks in check, I feel confident he’ll make me look good.
Ian Kennedy made short work of the competition in Tampa, striking out 8 in 5 innings and really, he should not be long for Tampa. I expect him to consistently put up big strikeout totals in the FSL until the Yankees promote him. Most noteworthy, for me at least, will be his GB:FB ratio. He’s supposedly been working on a 2-seamer.
Jose Tabata continues to dominate in the early going as he was 3 for 4 with a triple and a strikeout. It’s early, but Tabata looks like he wants to make good on his goal of reaching Trenton and proving, by the end of the year, that he can hit big league pitching.
Austin Jackson showed off his newfound power in Charleston last night going 2 for 4 with a double and a home run. The double was to center and the home run was to left-center.
Spotlight On:
You could go with Scranton, where Ross Ohlendorf is making his system debut. At the same time, you could go with Tampa where Joba should be making his full-season debut. The choice is yours. I’m more interested in Joba, I think.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
What To Watch in 2007 (Minor Leagues)
Minor league opening day, the real opening day, is finally upon us. After much pomp and circumstance about the improvement in the quality of the Yankee farm system, it’s finally time to see who is going to back up their winter press clippings with impressive performances. With that in mind, here are a few players to watch/listen to internet audio/keep track of in box scores:
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Scranton
Clippard has succeeded at every level thus far in his minor league career, but because he does not throw particularly hard, he still has his share of doubters. He will be taking the mound for Scranton today as he attempts to pass his final minor league test. I am a big fan of Clippard and expect him to do what he has done at every other level: ERA in the low to mid 3s, eat innings, and strike out lots of guys.
Eric Duncan, 1B, Scranton
The Yankees have decided to start Duncan off at Scranton. No doubt, they feel that the hitting he did for the first 180 or so plate appearances in AA last year represent the real Duncan. If he can stay away from any recurring back problems, I expect Duncan to surprise a lot of people and put himself in line for a shot at the 1B job come next spring. Strikeouts have not been a problem for him for some time now and it is just a matter of knowing that his back is healthy so that he can drive the ball when he does connect.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, Scranton
With the A-Rod saga developing to the point where it is not set in stone that he will be a member of the 2008 Yankees, Gonzalez goes from future super utility player to potential infield regular. There is a weak 3B market coming up and if A-Rod bolts, the Yankees might look within. If they do, the quality of the season Gonzalez has will play a large role in deciding how confidently the Yankees go in that direction.
Brett Gardner, CF, Trenton
Gardner can run really, really, really fast. He also knows how to take a walk. Those two skills will not mean much if he fails to hit with enough power to stop pitchers from attempting to knock the bat out of his hands. He already strikes out a lot for someone of the speedy leadoff man ilk, so it will be interesting to watch whether the strikeouts increase as he tries to hit for at least gap power. I doubt he is going to show much power and will probably have to settle for being rated as a future 4th OF/defensive replacement, but I hope he does better.
Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, Tampa
Marcos has impressed everyone with his defensive performance for some time now, but it is time for the bat to start catching up. He is another guy whose season becomes just a little bit more crucial with A-Rod’s status as a Yankee up in the air. I’ve always been a big Vechionacci supporter and given that he looked stronger in spring training I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and expect a year that has him ending in Trenton.
Ian Kennedy, RHP, Tampa
Kennedy is basically Clippard with a smaller build. Much like Clippard, he’s going to have to prove himself every step of the way. Tampa is step 1.
Jose Gil, C, Charleston
I love Gil’s swing. I love his sense of the strike-zone. I think he’s got defensive potential. This year he’s going to cease switch-hitting and just stick to being a righty batter, hopefully he begins to live up to my expectations.
The overall team to track this year is Tampa as it will have the most prospects. Scranton should also be good for keeping track of the potential rotation injury replacements. Finally, for those that were not aware, Dellin Betances and Zach McAllister did not make the opening day Charleston roster. I’m not sure why, but I would speculate that it was due to refinements being made to their motion (Betances) or pitches (McAllister).
And finally, if you’re into prospects, I highly recommend going to minorleaguebaseball.com and subscribing to MiLB.tv and enjoy watching the outstanding Scranton rotation so that when one of them makes it to the bigs, you can tell your friends all about what to expect.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
#8: Ian Kennedy
Ian Kennedy, RHP, 22
Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 6th, Baseball America 5th, John Sickels 10th (B-)
Physical Ability: Kennedy is another in the lineage of dominating USC pitchers. Unlike his predecessors Mark Prior, Randy Johnson, Tom Seaver, or even Barry Zito, he did not have something that made scouts say “wow”. A slightly built right-hander standing 6’0’’ tall and weighing in at 195, Kennedy does not throw as hard as the first 3 guys. Instead, his fastball is typically around 90. He does not have the awe inspiring breaking stuff that the two lefties on that list possess. Rather he throws a curveball that has been solid throughout his career, but can yell “hit me!” when he’s off. Despite those shortcomings, Kennedy still had a terrific first two years at USC and heading into his junior year was poised to etch his name alongside Prior’s in the history books. His success could be traced to terrific control and command and a plus changeup.
What Happened in ’06: Of course, Kennedy fell to the Yankees in the draft because he didn’t have the junior year he was expected to have. Instead of being terrific, he was merely solid. His fastball velocity dipped from solid to below average, he struggled with his curveball, and his changeup took a slight step back. In other words, everything went wrong. Despite this, Kennedy still had a solid season and the Yankees tabbed him with first pick, presumably because they had inside information on “fixing” him thanks to Mark Newman and the infamous USC network. Kennedy signed late and made a couple starts for Staten Island during the end of the regular season and playoffs. His performance there was similar to the performance he would go on to have in the Hawaiian Baseball League. He walked more than you would expect given his pedigree, allowed his share of runs, and struck out a ton of guys. This seems to have been an issue of rust more than anything else as he would struggle with his control early in games. This would leave him in a position where he HAD to get certain pitches over and batters would tee off.
What Lies Ahead: Kennedy will begin the 2007 season pitching for the Tampa Yankees. As he is now, I expect him to dominate in the Florida State League, he is the definition of a polished college pitcher and that is what they do there. Beyond that, how much success he has will be determined by how quickly he is able to improve his curveball. A changeup and command only gets you so far.
Grade: In ranking Kennedy as high as I am, I’m putting a lot of faith in Nardi Contreras’ ability to unlock what Kennedy had going prior to his junior year. Right now, he just isn’t that impressive of a pitching prospect. However, having been a known commodity and with his history of success, I feel Kennedy HAS to be given the benefit of the doubt. If he develops as expected, Kennedy can slide nicely into the middle of a rotation. Despite a similar build and somewhat similar pitching motion, he’s not Mike Mussina and never will be. At worst he’s a safe bet to contribute to the back of a rotation. B-
Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Baseball America: Top 10 Yankees Prospects
1. Phil Hughes, RHP2. Jose Tabata, OF
3. Dellin Betances, RHP
4. Joba Chamberlain, RHP
5. Ian Kennedy, RHP
6. Chris Garcia, RHP
7. Tyler Clippard, RHP
8. J. Brent Cox, RHP
9. Mark Melancon, RHP
10. Brett Gardner,
Not a big fan of Brett Gardner, but otherwise the list seems to be as expected.
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