Thursday, December 31, 2009
Minor League Ball - Sickels: New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects for 2010
1) Jesus Montero, C, Grade A: I know that his position is up in the air, but I love this bat so much that I’m going to give him a straight Grade A. This is a Mike Piazza/Manny Ramirez type bat.
2) Austin Romine, C, Grade B: Not in Montero’s class as a hitter, but he’s not bad, should improve further, and is much better defensively.
3) Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline Grade B. Intriguing young lefty, undersized but has a very good arm and has performed quite well thus far.
4) Zach McAllister, RHP, Grade B-: Strike-throwing-ground-ball-generating-inning-gobbler with advanced pitching feel. A fifth starter, long reliever, or trade bait in New York.
5) Slade Heathcott, OF, Grade B-: Excellent tools, will have to see how his skills develop, and if he overcomes concerns about his makeup from high school.
...
Montero looks like he may have a chance for a cup of coffee in the bigs.
Happy New Year to everyone who doesn’t root for the Red Sox.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Re-assessing the 2010 Yankees as of December 23, 2009
Since I last assessed the Yankees for 2010, they’ve added Nick Johnson to DH and Javier Vazquez to slot into the rotation, so it’s probably a good time to use my CAIRO projections and re-assess them.
Here's how the lineup and bench looks now.| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 625 | .307/.371/.425 | 84 | 393 | 29 | -4 | 2.5 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 450 | .271/.412/.418 | 65 | 265 | 10 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1b | 670 | .280/.379/.529 | 111 | 416 | 34 | 3 | 3.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 605 | .282/.389/.546 | 105 | 370 | 44 | -4 | 4.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | .257/.338/.462 | 87 | 414 | 26 | 5 | 3.1 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 425 | .266/.352/.455 | 58 | 276 | 21 | -5 | 1.6 |
| Robinson Cano | 2b | 625 | .311/.348/.494 | 90 | 407 | 30 | -1 | 3.0 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 550 | .235/.355/.444 | 74 | 355 | 16 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 500 | .262/.348/.351 | 59 | 326 | 7 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Starters Total | 5075 | .277/.365/.463 | 733 | 3221 | 217 | -2 | 21.5 | |
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Jamie Hoffmann | RF | 350 | .242/.317/.359 | 35 | 239 | -2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Juan Miranda | 1b | 300 | .247/.331/.427 | 37 | 201 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 250 | .251/.322/.357 | 24 | 170 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 225 | .240/.301/.316 | 19 | 157 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Reegie Corona | 2b | 167 | .246/.325/.335 | 17 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Bench Total | 1292 | .245/.319/.363 | 131 | 879 | 2 | 2 | 0.4 | |
| Player | PA | BR | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR | |
| Team Total | 6367 | 864 | .270/.356/.442 | 4100 | 219 | -1 | 21.9 |
BR: Absolute linear weights batting runs based on estimated playing time, not adjusted for position.
Outs: Outs made while batting. Team outs should add up to around 4100 over a full season.
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level at position.
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR pro-rated to projected playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS).
I've held the playing time for the holdover starters constant to my last post, but the addition of Johnson and the subsequent increased PAs for the entire team, as well as more playing time for TSBG over Melky leads to the Yankee position players projecting to score about 21 more runs (from 843 to 864) than the team as of December 16 without Johnson. The defense is essentially unchanged, going from -2 to -1.
On the pitching side, there are two scenarios right now. One has Joba Chamberlain as the fifth starter and Phil Hughes in the pen, and the other has the converse. For now I'll assume that whomever loses the rotation spot battle isn't going to get any starts, so extra starts will go to the 6-8 pitchers.
With Joba in the rotation, the pitching staff looks like this:
| Pitching | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 179 | 77 | 72 | 15 | 49 | 7 | 176 | 3.48 | 3.24 | 3.26 | 55 | 5.5 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 200 | 183 | 84 | 78 | 21 | 46 | 5 | 194 | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.37 | 49 | 4.9 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 175 | 161 | 84 | 78 | 18 | 72 | 8 | 169 | 4.30 | 4.02 | 3.95 | 33 | 3.3 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 184 | 89 | 80 | 16 | 59 | 4 | 131 | 4.59 | 4.12 | 3.94 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 151 | 151 | 79 | 70 | 15 | 66 | 8 | 140 | 4.71 | 4.19 | 4.11 | 21 | 2.1 |
| Chad Gaudin | SP6 | 50 | 48 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 41 | 5.04 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP7 | 40 | 50 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 5.70 | 4.87 | 4.37 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP8 | 40 | 48 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 5.87 | 5.12 | 4.73 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Starter Total | 1031 | 1004 | 492 | 449 | 98 | 338 | 0 | 897 | 4.30 | 3.92 | 3.68 | 192 | 19.2 | |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 69 | 51 | 20 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 71 | 2.55 | 2.36 | 2.70 | 21 | 2.1 |
| Phil Hughes | SU | 70 | 62 | 30 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 69 | 3.92 | 3.67 | 3.54 | 10 | 1.0 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 48 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 49 | 4.54 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 4 | 0.4 |
| David Robertson | MR | 65 | 57 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 76 | 4.14 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 45 | 4.87 | 4.60 | 4.42 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Mark Melancon | MR | 50 | 53 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 35 | 5.27 | 4.72 | 4.42 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Edwar Ramirez | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Ivan Nova | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Reliever Total | 369 | 337 | 170 | 153 | 34 | 123 | 12 | 345 | 4.14 | 3.74 | 3.64 | 46 | 4.6 | |
| Pitching Total | 1400 | 1340 | 662 | 602 | 132 | 461 | 12 | 1242 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.67 | 238 | 23.8 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
Flipping Hughes and Chamberlain looks like this:
| Pitching | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 179 | 77 | 72 | 15 | 49 | 7 | 176 | 3.48 | 3.24 | 3.26 | 55 | 5.5 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 200 | 183 | 84 | 78 | 21 | 46 | 5 | 194 | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.37 | 49 | 4.9 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 175 | 161 | 84 | 78 | 18 | 72 | 8 | 169 | 4.30 | 4.02 | 3.95 | 33 | 3.3 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 184 | 89 | 80 | 16 | 59 | 4 | 131 | 4.59 | 4.12 | 3.94 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 151 | 147 | 82 | 77 | 14 | 58 | 7 | 126 | 4.89 | 4.59 | 4.06 | 22 | 2.2 |
| Chad Gaudin | SP6 | 50 | 48 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 41 | 5.04 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP7 | 40 | 50 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 5.70 | 4.87 | 4.37 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP8 | 40 | 48 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 5.87 | 5.12 | 4.73 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Starter Total | 1031 | 1001 | 495 | 456 | 97 | 330 | 0 | 883 | 4.32 | 3.98 | 3.68 | 193 | 19.3 | |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 69 | 51 | 20 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 71 | 2.55 | 2.36 | 2.70 | 21 | 2.1 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SU | 70 | 63 | 29 | 26 | 6 | 27 | 4 | 77 | 3.77 | 3.35 | 3.51 | 10 | 1.0 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 48 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 49 | 4.54 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 4 | 0.4 |
| David Robertson | MR | 65 | 57 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 76 | 4.14 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 45 | 4.87 | 4.60 | 4.42 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Mark Melancon | MR | 50 | 53 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 35 | 5.27 | 4.72 | 4.42 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Edwar Ramirez | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Ivan Nova | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Reliever Total | 369 | 338 | 168 | 151 | 35 | 126 | 12 | 353 | 4.11 | 3.68 | 3.63 | 45 | 4.5 | |
| Pitching Total | 1400 | 1339 | 664 | 606 | 132 | 456 | 12 | 1236 | 4.27 | 3.90 | 3.66 | 239 | 23.9 |
Although Joba will be without innings limits this year, I restricted him to 151 to allow for a direct comparison with Hughes, who I believe will have an innings limit, although I'm guessing at the 151.
There is one key point about the pitching projections. Projection systems don't understand that player skill/talent is static and never changes. They incorrectly assume that a weighted average of the most recent seasons adjusted for context such as league, park and defense combined with regression towards the mean and adjusting for aging tells us more about a player than what that player may have done five or six years ago for a team. So even though Javier Vazquez projects to put up a nice 3.52 ERA, we know for a fact that he is going to have a 4.91 ERA in 2010 because that's what he did in 2004 for the same exact Yankee team in the same exact stadium against the same exact opposition he faced back then with the same exact pitching coach and the same exact defense behind him.
Anyway, I went a little conservative on the IP by the starters to account for the fact that expecting your entire rotation to stay healthy all season is not particularly realistic. In the Hughes rotation/Joba bullpen scenario, the Yankees' team would project to do this:
| Component | R | WAR |
| Offense | 864 | 21.9 |
| Defense | -1 | -0.1 |
| Starting Pitchers | 495 | 19.3 |
| Relief Pitchers | 168 | 4.5 |
| RS/RA | 864-663 | 45.8 |
| Pythagenpat wpct | .623 | |
| W-L | 101-61 |
And in the converse scenario, they'd project to do this:
| Component | R | WAR |
| Offense | 864 | 21.9 |
| Defense | -1 | -0.1 |
| Starting Pitchers | 492 | 19.2 |
| Relief Pitchers | 170 | 4.6 |
| RS/RA | 864-661 | 45.7 |
| Pythagenpat wpct | .625 | |
| W-L | 101-61 |
Last year's team projected to be about a 95 win team heading into the season, and although they won 103 games their Pythagenpat record was around 95-96 wins. So even though the Yankees have had a terrible offseason, they look like they're six wins better while costing no more than last year's team did. If they can find a league average LF they would pick up maybe one more win.
I'll sign up for terrible offseasons like this every year.
Update: Here's a more optimistic version of the position player depth chart:
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 670 | .307/.371/.425 | 90 | 421 | 31 | -4 | 2.7 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 560 | .271/.412/.418 | 81 | 329 | 13 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1b | 670 | .280/.379/.529 | 111 | 416 | 34 | 3 | 3.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 605 | .282/.389/.546 | 105 | 370 | 44 | -4 | 4.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 670 | .257/.338/.462 | 93 | 444 | 28 | 6 | 3.4 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 475 | .266/.352/.455 | 65 | 308 | 23 | -5 | 1.8 |
| Robinson Cano | 2b | 650 | .311/.348/.494 | 93 | 424 | 31 | -1 | 3.1 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 620 | .235/.355/.444 | 84 | 400 | 18 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 525 | .262/.348/.351 | 62 | 342 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 |
| Starters Total | 5445 | .276/.366/.461 | 784 | 3454 | 230 | -2 | 22.8 | |
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Jamie Hoffmann | RF | 300 | .242/.317/.359 | 30 | 205 | -2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Juan Miranda | 1b | 200 | .247/.331/.427 | 25 | 134 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 250 | .251/.322/.357 | 24 | 170 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 100 | .240/.301/.316 | 8 | 70 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Reegie Corona | 2b | 100 | .246/.325/.335 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench Total | 950 | .245/.320/.365 | 97 | 646 | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | |
| Player | PA | BR | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR | |
| Team Total | 6395 | 881 | .271/.359/.446 | 4100 | 232 | -1 | 23.1 |
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the Defense
As requested, here’s a look at how Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the overall team defense did compared to their projections.
After a 2008 season that saw him get to AA, Cervelli was still probably off the radar for 2009 despite a brief cameo at the end of 2008. However, injuries forced him into the picture, and he ended up getting 101 PAs. Here are his projections entering 2009, pro-rated to those 101 PAs.
| francisco cervelli | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 101 | 92 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 25 | .223 | .296 | .304 | 53 | .268 | .174 | .221 | .315 | .362 | 95.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 101 | 90 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 18 | .272 | .337 | .422 | 82 | .321 | .221 | .271 | .370 | .420 | 114.2% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 24 | .229 | .300 | .335 | 60 | .277 | .182 | .229 | .324 | .372 | 98.5% |
| 2009 tht projection | 101 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | .236 | .315 | .321 | 59 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 | .236 | .317 | .304 | 56 | .281 | .186 | .234 | .329 | .377 | 100.2% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 101 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | .240 | .314 | .326 | 61 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.2% |
| 2009 average projection | 101 | 90 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 21 | .239 | .313 | .335 | 62 | .286 | .190 | .238 | .334 | .382 | 101.8% |
| 2009 actuals | 101 | 94 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | .298 | .309 | .372 | 55 | .281 | .185 | .233 | .329 | .376 |
Cervelli had shown pretty good plate discipline in the minors, but it deserted him in the majors. Despite that, he was able to come fairly close to his projected OBP because he hit six more singles. That also explains why he was able to exceed his SLG by a fair amount.
The .298 average is nice, but it was sort of empty, and it's doubtful he'll be able to replicate the same type of performance in 2010 if he has to rely on hitting .298 to do it. The good news is he should walk a little more and he's still going to be just 24, so he has room for growth in his offensive game. While it's probably unlikely he'll be more than a backup, he should be a decent one, especially if the good defense he showed in 2009 carries forward.
Sort of like Cervelli, Ramiro Pena hadn't gotten past AA prior to 2009, and he hadn't really impressed there either, slugging a monstrous .297 in 2008 for Trenton. Pena's calling card isn't his bat though, it's his glove. In a surprise, he made the Yankees on opening day as a backup IF, since Alex Rodriguez was out rehabbing his hip and the only other backup IF on the roster was Angel Berroa.
Because of Pena's unimpressive minor league resume, his projections were unimpressive.
| ramiro pena | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 121 | 113 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 25 | .233 | .284 | .297 | 48 | .258 | .173 | .215 | .300 | .342 | 86.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 121 | 110 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | .224 | .272 | .320 | 50 | .255 | .170 | .212 | .297 | .339 | 85.7% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 121 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | .223 | .285 | .286 | 47 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .339 | 85.8% |
| 2009 tht projection | 121 | 113 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | .224 | .276 | .291 | 45 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .294 | .336 | 84.8% |
| 2009 zips projection | 121 | 114 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | .224 | .269 | .263 | 39 | .240 | .158 | .199 | .282 | .323 | 80.9% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 121 | 112 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 21 | .232 | .282 | .290 | 46 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .340 | 85.9% |
| 2009 average projection | 121 | 112 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 | .227 | .278 | .291 | 46 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .295 | .337 | 85.0% |
| 2009 actuals | 121 | 115 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | .287 | .317 | .383 | 71 | .297 | .208 | .253 | .342 | .386 |
Like Cervelli, Pena hit more and walked less than expected. However, he did show a little more pop than projected, with two extra doubles. Obviously when we're dealing with sample sizes like this we shouldn't try to infer too much about what it means going forward, but Pena's final line in 2009 was better than replacement level, and would have made him about a win better than replacement level on offense if he had done it over 650 PAs.
So, how about the Yankee defense?
Since I started blogging in 2004, there's been one recurring theme with the Yankees. Their defense has generally been bad to awful. While you can hit and pitch well enough to overcome that, it can be frustrating to watch players not making plays other players can make.
When the Yankees let Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi go and replaced them with Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, that alone looked like a pretty decent defensive upgrade. Here's how the defense projected heading into 2009 compared to what they actually ended up doing.
| Player | Pos | pZR | pUZR | pRAA | zRSAA | uRSAA | aRSAA | diff |
| Jorge Posada | C | -5 | -10 | -5 | ||||
| Jose Molina | C | 2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -4 | ||
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Kevin Cash | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 2 | -1 |
| Juan Miranda | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 2 | -2 | 0 | -2 | -5 | -3 | -4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | -2 | -1 | -2 | -6 | -9 | -7 | -6 |
| Cody Ransom | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 |
| Angel Berroa | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -1 | -1 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
| Brett Gardner | CF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Johnny Damon | LF | -1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -9 | -5 | -6 |
| Freddy Guzman | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | -1 | -3 | -4 |
| Eric Hinske | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavier Nady | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | -2 | -27 | -25 |
pZR: Projected runs saved above average according to zone rating, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pUZR: Projected runs saved above average according to UZR, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pRAA: Average of pZR and pUZR
zRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to zone rating
uRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to UZR
aRSAA: Average of zRSAA and uRSAA
diff: aRSAA - pRAA (negative means worse than projected)
The Yankee defense actually didn't play as well as projected, with the primary culprits being Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa's contributions also didn't really help. On the plus side, Derek Jeter was seven runs better than projected and Brett Gardner was two runs better.
Last year's team was about 40 runs below average, so at the very least they were better than that.
Interestingly, I completely forgot to do a season review for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, so I'll post that next, then Mo's and then that should wrap up the backwards-looking stuff for now.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Baseball America: New York Yankees Top Ten Prospects
1. Austin Jackson, of
2. Jesus Montero, c
3. Andrew Brackman, rhp
4. Austin Romine, c
5. Dellin Betances, rhp
6. Zach McAllister, rhp
7. Alfredo Aceves, rhp
8. Phil Coke, lhp
9. Mark Melancon, rhp
10. Bradley Suttle, 3b
I’m not really all that impressed by this list. Should I be?
Monday, September 1, 2008
NY Daily News: Yankees’ Minor League Report
Phil Coke was a “fringy prospect” until this season, says Mark Newman, the Yankees vice president of baseball operations. But Coke was the first name Newman uttered in a recent conversation about Yankee minor-leaguers who made significant strides this season.
“Now we think he’s a very good prospect,” Newman said. “He’s got his velocity to 94 (mph) and his slider has more depth and a late break.”
He’s made such strides that he will be called up to the Yankees today, when rosters expand.
Coke, 26, was mostly a starter at Double-A Trenton and went 9-4 with a 2.51 ERA before being promoted to Triple-A Scranton. He switched to the bullpen so the Yankees could manage the number of innings he pitched and see how his stuff translated to relieving. In 14 games at Scranton (one start), he’s 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA.
“He can start or relieve,” Newman said. “He’s got enough pitches to start because he also has a changeup. He’s certainly a possibility for the major-league team for next year.”
Coke debuted today against Detroit and looked pretty good I thought.
Newman also discusses Zach McAllister, Juan Miranda, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine in this article. Hat tip to Was Watching.
Monday, November 27, 2006
No.21 - Zach McAllister, RHP, 18
Zach McAllister, RHP, 18Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus N/A, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 15th (C)
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Physical Ability: Zach McAllister is a BIG righty with untapped physical potential that the Yankees are hoping they can harvest. Listed at 6’5’’ and 230 pounds, McAllister was only touching the low 90s at draft time. In addition his go-to secondary pitches were a rough slider and chage-up combination. However, due to being the son of a cross-checker, McAllister had the “polished†tag attached to him and the Yankees picked him up. Since draft day, McAllister’s fastball velocity can now be pegged at low 90s due to mechanical adjustments made by the Yankees as well as by emphasizing the 4-seamer with him. He is also in the process of picking up a curveball to replace his slider. Finally, McAllister’s change-up has to this point been lauded as perhaps the best pitch in his arsenal and an easy plus pitch right now.
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What Happened in ’06: McAllister signed quickly and was sent to the GCL where he was most frequently seen as part of a starter tag-team duo with Dellin Betances. Drafted as a sinkerballer, McAllister was able to experience some early success despite a BB:K ratio of 9:8 through his first 19 professional innings. The reason for this is that over that same span of time he held a groundball to flyball ratio of 43:12, which is…absurdly good. The Yankees have a club policy of not altering a player’s game until 30 days into their career and it was about the conclusion of those first 19 innings that they decided to make the aforementioned modifications to McAllister’s approach and mechanics. The result was that over the final 16 innings of the season McAllister improved his BB:K ratio to 3:20 and his groundball to flyball ratio was still excellent at 23:10.
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What Lies Ahead: Zach should begin the year as a member of the Low A Charleston rotation and it seems that physically, the changes that needed to be made have been made, and so what is going to be critical is continuing to work on the mental aspects of the game. This means continuing to have confidence in the 4-seam fastball as well as his changeup and working in a curveball every now and then. McAllister is also going to have to do a better job of buckling down with runners on as he was guilty of giving up “the big hit†in ’06, though the sample size was small. Another small sample size concern is that McAllister struggled through some control problems against lefty batters.
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Grade: McAllister has everything I look for from a statistical perspective in a pitching prospect and I am bullish on him, as the scouting end seems to hold up with his performance record. Hopefully, his big body will allow him to more easily handle some of the fatigue that pitchers deal with in their first full season. The mental side of the game is going to be especially critical for him, and that’s where having his particular baseball background may come in handy, as it seems that pitchers of his ilk, extreme groundballers, often have to deal with adversity in the form of ugly numbers early in their career. This is thanks in part to poor minor league fields and unpolished defenders. If he can get through that ok, he should be a very interesting pitcher. C
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