Tuesday, December 1, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the Defense
As requested, here’s a look at how Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the overall team defense did compared to their projections.
After a 2008 season that saw him get to AA, Cervelli was still probably off the radar for 2009 despite a brief cameo at the end of 2008. However, injuries forced him into the picture, and he ended up getting 101 PAs. Here are his projections entering 2009, pro-rated to those 101 PAs.
| francisco cervelli | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 101 | 92 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 25 | .223 | .296 | .304 | 53 | .268 | .174 | .221 | .315 | .362 | 95.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 101 | 90 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 18 | .272 | .337 | .422 | 82 | .321 | .221 | .271 | .370 | .420 | 114.2% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 24 | .229 | .300 | .335 | 60 | .277 | .182 | .229 | .324 | .372 | 98.5% |
| 2009 tht projection | 101 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | .236 | .315 | .321 | 59 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 | .236 | .317 | .304 | 56 | .281 | .186 | .234 | .329 | .377 | 100.2% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 101 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | .240 | .314 | .326 | 61 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.2% |
| 2009 average projection | 101 | 90 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 21 | .239 | .313 | .335 | 62 | .286 | .190 | .238 | .334 | .382 | 101.8% |
| 2009 actuals | 101 | 94 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | .298 | .309 | .372 | 55 | .281 | .185 | .233 | .329 | .376 |
Cervelli had shown pretty good plate discipline in the minors, but it deserted him in the majors. Despite that, he was able to come fairly close to his projected OBP because he hit six more singles. That also explains why he was able to exceed his SLG by a fair amount.
The .298 average is nice, but it was sort of empty, and it's doubtful he'll be able to replicate the same type of performance in 2010 if he has to rely on hitting .298 to do it. The good news is he should walk a little more and he's still going to be just 24, so he has room for growth in his offensive game. While it's probably unlikely he'll be more than a backup, he should be a decent one, especially if the good defense he showed in 2009 carries forward.
Sort of like Cervelli, Ramiro Pena hadn't gotten past AA prior to 2009, and he hadn't really impressed there either, slugging a monstrous .297 in 2008 for Trenton. Pena's calling card isn't his bat though, it's his glove. In a surprise, he made the Yankees on opening day as a backup IF, since Alex Rodriguez was out rehabbing his hip and the only other backup IF on the roster was Angel Berroa.
Because of Pena's unimpressive minor league resume, his projections were unimpressive.
| ramiro pena | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 121 | 113 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 25 | .233 | .284 | .297 | 48 | .258 | .173 | .215 | .300 | .342 | 86.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 121 | 110 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | .224 | .272 | .320 | 50 | .255 | .170 | .212 | .297 | .339 | 85.7% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 121 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | .223 | .285 | .286 | 47 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .339 | 85.8% |
| 2009 tht projection | 121 | 113 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | .224 | .276 | .291 | 45 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .294 | .336 | 84.8% |
| 2009 zips projection | 121 | 114 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | .224 | .269 | .263 | 39 | .240 | .158 | .199 | .282 | .323 | 80.9% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 121 | 112 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 21 | .232 | .282 | .290 | 46 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .340 | 85.9% |
| 2009 average projection | 121 | 112 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 | .227 | .278 | .291 | 46 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .295 | .337 | 85.0% |
| 2009 actuals | 121 | 115 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | .287 | .317 | .383 | 71 | .297 | .208 | .253 | .342 | .386 |
Like Cervelli, Pena hit more and walked less than expected. However, he did show a little more pop than projected, with two extra doubles. Obviously when we're dealing with sample sizes like this we shouldn't try to infer too much about what it means going forward, but Pena's final line in 2009 was better than replacement level, and would have made him about a win better than replacement level on offense if he had done it over 650 PAs.
So, how about the Yankee defense?
Since I started blogging in 2004, there's been one recurring theme with the Yankees. Their defense has generally been bad to awful. While you can hit and pitch well enough to overcome that, it can be frustrating to watch players not making plays other players can make.
When the Yankees let Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi go and replaced them with Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, that alone looked like a pretty decent defensive upgrade. Here's how the defense projected heading into 2009 compared to what they actually ended up doing.
| Player | Pos | pZR | pUZR | pRAA | zRSAA | uRSAA | aRSAA | diff |
| Jorge Posada | C | -5 | -10 | -5 | ||||
| Jose Molina | C | 2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -4 | ||
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Kevin Cash | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 2 | -1 |
| Juan Miranda | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 2 | -2 | 0 | -2 | -5 | -3 | -4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | -2 | -1 | -2 | -6 | -9 | -7 | -6 |
| Cody Ransom | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 |
| Angel Berroa | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -1 | -1 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
| Brett Gardner | CF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Johnny Damon | LF | -1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -9 | -5 | -6 |
| Freddy Guzman | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | -1 | -3 | -4 |
| Eric Hinske | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavier Nady | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | -2 | -27 | -25 |
pZR: Projected runs saved above average according to zone rating, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pUZR: Projected runs saved above average according to UZR, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pRAA: Average of pZR and pUZR
zRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to zone rating
uRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to UZR
aRSAA: Average of zRSAA and uRSAA
diff: aRSAA - pRAA (negative means worse than projected)
The Yankee defense actually didn't play as well as projected, with the primary culprits being Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa's contributions also didn't really help. On the plus side, Derek Jeter was seven runs better than projected and Brett Gardner was two runs better.
Last year's team was about 40 runs below average, so at the very least they were better than that.
Interestingly, I completely forgot to do a season review for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, so I'll post that next, then Mo's and then that should wrap up the backwards-looking stuff for now.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Those That Missed The Cut Pt. 1
The following is a brief rundown on the prospects THAT did not make my Top 25. Questions, comments, and criticism are welcome. I’m going to attempt to have the Top 25 done by the time ST rolls around, but…no guarantees. The following list isn’t in any specific order. Ages listed are “baseball ages” for the 2008 season.
Eric Duncan, 1B, 23 In Duncan’s time in the Yankee minor league system I have ranked him as the 3rd (‘04), 1st (‘05), 2nd (‘06), and 10th (‘07) best prospect in the organization. While Duncan’s high initial rankings were due in part to the Yankee system being terrible, I think that knowing what I know now, I would not have ranked him as high. 2007 was the same old story for Eric. He drew a good amount of walks and didn’t strike out too much, but an inability to hit for average killed his overall numbers: .241/.323/.389. I’m at the point where I don’t believe Duncan will ever learn to do that and his power, on base skills, and defense aren’t strong enough to make him worthwhile unless he can his average up a lot. The Yankees seem to have soured on Eric as well, leaving him unprotected for the Rule V draft, where no one picked him up. It can no longer be said that “Duncan is so young, players his age are normally in [insert favorable minor league level here]” and being what he is, a “slugger” who has trouble providing offensive value due to an inability to turn quality ABs into quality outcomes, I could not leave him in my top 25.
Chris Garcia, RHP, 22 If he can somehow get healthy and stay that way, Garcia has the ability to make me look stupid for leaving him off. However, having missed time due to TJ surgery and then a knee injury while rehabbing, which followed a ‘06 where he also struggled with injuries…I’m beginning to think Garcia just won’t stay healthy enough for long enough to show why some talent evaluators felt he had more ability than Phil Hughes.
J.B. Cox, RHP, 24 Cox could also make me look foolish, but in my defense, he was one of the last guys cut. I’m confident that he will be back to some level of “normal” this year, but a guy coming off an injury whose projected future ML role is 7th inning guy didn’t strike me as someone I wanted in the top 25.
Tim Norton, RHP, 25 This one really hurts. Norton had filthy stuff. Great low to mid 90s fastball and developing splitter. While the Yankees were using him as a starter, he seemed destined for the bullpen as a shutdown reliever. Unfortunately, 5 starts into his ‘07 he had to undergo shoulder surgery, which is not something I tend to be forgiving with.
Brett Gardner, OF, 24 I think this is the one I’m going to get the most hate for, but…I just don’t see it. I’ve gone over his stat lines numerous times, I’ve seen him play, and I just don’t get the Brett Gardner love. Last year I said he could be “the player that everyone thinks Scott Podsednik is” in ranking him 16th and now I think he might just be the real Scott Podsednik. He is not Jacoby Ellsbury. Brett MAY be just as fast and while they may provide equivalent baserunning value, that’s about the only area where they are comparable. Instead of making him a standout defender, Brett’s speed helps him to be a good one due to his making his share of poor reads on the ball. In addition, at the plate, while Jacoby is never going to hit for much power, he has far more than Brett and that is going to help Jacoby’s skills translate to the major league level. Brett walks a good amount now, but major league pitchers are going to knock the bat out of his hands rather than walk him. He also strikes out way more than a player of his skill set should, but has made progress in that regard. Overall, Brett Gardner is REALLY fast and may one day use that to turn into a 5th OF or something, but that’s not enough.
Steven Jackson, RHP, 26 Jackson is a sinkerballer who gets his share of groundballs, but makes far too many mistakes, leading to an elevated home run rate. Outside of his sinker, 88-92, Jackson didn’t demonstrate much in the way of secondary pitches. He’s looking like a one pitch guy, which eliminates him from being a starter long term, and his one pitch isn’t dominant enough to make him a great reliever, at this point.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, 25 I really like Alberto Gonzalez. It was really tough for me cut a guy from the top 25 who I believe is a really good defender with a developing bat. For the Yankees he could be one of the league’s best backup infielders and on another club he may be a league average SS. I believe that whatever the Yankees did to Gonzalez when he was demoted to AA, it worked because he has been a very different player since then, making a huge cut in his K rate while upping his walk rate. This lasted through his AA time, his return to AAA, and is now carrying over in the winter leagues. Of course, if that improvement isn’t real he’s just a good glove who can’t hit and that’s not worth much.
Steven White, RHP, 27 White has a good fastball, in the low 90s, but it’s not a great fastball. He has decent, if inconsistent, secondary pitches. His control isn’t great. I think he could be Luis Vizcaino, a serviceable reliever, but not much else. He has no long term future starting.
Colin Curtis, OF, 23 Curtis looks like Brett Gardner without the speed. I wanted to believe there was more there last year, but it seems the scouts were correct in writing him off as a ‘tweener. He has time to change this evaluation, but it’s always scary when a guy who lacks power is promoted and proceeds to see good offensive numbers turn into terrible ones due to an increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks.
Chase Wright, LHP, 25 Wright has an average fastball and slightly above average change, but his control and command of all his non-change pitches leaves a lot to be desired. As a result, he is consistently behind in the count and this leads to predictable pitching sequences, which could one day lead to him doing something historic, like giving up a lot of homers in a row or something. The lack of command and control also makes Wright a less than ideal candidate for a bullpen role, so he doesn’t seem to have much of a big league future unless he can learn to command his very average stuff.
Kevin Whelan, RHP, 24 Thanks to a pretty good fastball and splitter combo, Whelan will always have supporters. Unfortunately, his control left him too frequently last year for him to put up the numbers he could/should have. I do wonder how his numbers would have looked if he were limited to just 1 innings more frequently. He’s a guy that I wouldn’t be surprised to see jump back on to the 25 next year.
*To Be Continued*
Friday, April 6, 2007
Clippard’s AAA Debut
Opening Night Review:
Tyler Clippard was solid in his AAA debut last night. He had a little trouble locating the fastball, but could go to the curve and the change for outs whenever he got into a jam. While his fastball isn’t particularly fast, he does seem to get a good deal of movement on it. Some of that is unintended as it sails on him from time to time. His command of his secondary pitches appears to be superior to his fastball command, which could explain some of the “Clippard pitches backwards” stuff that’s heard from time to time.
Eric Duncan looked ok at the plate. He had a couple of poor appearances against a good pitcher, Hayden Penn, but also knocked a looooong opposite field double off the wall. Defensively, he looked much improved from when I saw him last year. His actions around the bag appeared smoother and more confident, which was my primary point of concern with his defensive game.
Alberto Gonzalez was up hacking and did not last long enough in any of his Abs to take note of anything other than the fact that he likes to swing. In the field he didn’t do anything noteworthy.
Around The Minors:
-Chase Wright pitched a phenomenal game for Trenton. He went 7 and struck out 9 while giving up 3 hits and 0 walks. Wright was pretty impressive in spring training, despite some control problems. He’s fairly old to be considered a big time prospect, but he might be Ron Villone, we’ll see.
-Jose Tabata started his season off right by singling and immediately stealing a base.
-Tim Norton also got started correctly by tossing 5 innings of 1 hit shutout baseball. He also took the time to strike out 5 while just walking 1. Despite concerns about his secondary pitches, I doubt Norton will be long for Charleston.
Spotlight On:
-Scranton is once again the affiliate to watch as Phil Hughes makes his 2007 debut.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
No. 19 - Tim Norton, RHP, 23
Tim Norton, RHP, 23Previously Ranked: N/R
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 30th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 10th (B-)
Physical Ability: Standing 6’5’’ and weighing in at 230 pounds, Tim Norton has the ideal pitcher’s frame. His fastball is almost as impressive as that frame, regularly clocking in the low 90s and touching the mid 90s. It is a heavy sinking fastball that has to this point helped him put up big numbers against wood bats. In addition to that fastball Norton throws a splitter that is at times an average, get me over, pitch and at others a strikeout weapon. The rest of his repertoire is very underdeveloped. He has been playing baseball in cold weather states and only picked the game up in 8th grade. He has no changeup to speak of really and from time to time he tries to mix a slider in, but it’s no good either.
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What Happened in ’06: The Yankees drafted Norton in the 7th round to little fanfare. While he had demonstrated a great fastball there were concerns about him in regards to what he possessed beyond that. Apparently for New York Penn League batters, the fastball was enough. Actually, that’s not entirely fair, as his splitter did come along a bit as well. Overall, Norton was just completely dominant. He performed well against left and right-handed batters, striking out tons of guys and keeping the ball on the ground.
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What Lies Ahead: Most people would consider me to be an age relative to league Nazi. In that sense, it’s surprising that I have Norton rated as highly as I do. However, when it comes to pitching prospects, I also love strikeouts and groundballs and Norton gets lots of those. I’m also hoping that he’ll be able to move quickly through the system because it’s not as though he is old due to having been stuck in the system for some time. Finally, there’s also the matter that he shouldn’t be viewed in the light of your average 23-year-old pitcher because, as previously noted, he started late. Norton should begin 2007 in the Tampa rotation where I expect him to do very well given his stuff and performance to date.
Grade: Despite the fact that he was just drafted this year, I have a good feeling about Norton’s chances of making it to the majors. His role in the majors is still very much up in the air as he really only has one pitch at the moment. However, all it takes is one great pitch and one serviceable pitch to be at least a solid reliever. Furthermore, if the splitter comes along even more, Norton may be able to make it as a starter. As a starter his ceiling would be a middle of the rotation innings-eater. Another factor that makes Norton an appealing pitcher for me is that his one great pitch is a sinking fastball, which seems to be a great pitch for those of limited repertoire. C
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