Monday, September 29, 2008

Why Did the 2008 Yankees Disappoint?(Offense Edition)

Coming into this season, the Yankees looked to be a contender for best team in baseball. Although they were taking a calculated risk in relying on some very young pitchers, they were returning the bulk of a team that has scored 968 runs last year.  Even with expected declines in their older players, they still projected to have the best offense in baseball.

When I ran the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, they were the best team in the AL in most of the projection systems I used.  When I looked at the position players and the pitching staff I arrived at the same basic conclusion, the the Yankees should have won somewhere between 93-97 games.

As we all know, things didn’t work out that way.  The question I want to look at is why?  Were the projections wrong?  Was it injuries?  Was it a lack of testicular fortitude?  Let’s see if we can figure it out.

The projections I’ll be referencing here are the composite projections of several different systems, as detailed in this February blog entry.  I’m going to go through position by position looking at the projected starters compared to what the actual primary starters ended up doing, then looking at the bench as a unit. 

One other thing, while offense in the AL was down for most of this year compared to last year, the difference has narrowed signficantly of late to the point that it’s probably no longer statistically significant. The league average line of .268/.336/.420 equates to a BR/650 of 80 this season compared last year’s line of .271/.338/.423 which equates to a BR/650 of 81.  The BR(batting runs) I’ll be using here are context-neutral raw batting runs using linear weights, not position-adjusted or adjusted for base-out states. 

Catcher
Coming off his career year in 2007, Jorge Posada was projected to give back a fair amount of value in 2008.  Posada was projected to hit .286/.380/.469, a performance that would have been worth 76 batting runs according to linear weights using my assumed 500 plate appearances. 

Posada went down to a shoulder injury after just 195 PA, which made Jose Molina (Molino for the regulars) the primary starter.  While Molino had a strong defensive season, he hit like crap.  Molina hit .216/.263/.313 over 297 PA, which was worth 21 batting runs.  The difference between Posada’s projection and Molina’s actual performance as the primary starter was 55 runs, which was a 5.5 win underperformance.  BTW, disparities in playing time at all the positions will be accounted for when we get to the bench.

First Base
Another risk the Yankees took entering 2008 was that Jason Giambi would be able to
-Out-produce a disastrous 2007
-Play passable defense at first base
-Stay healthy all season

If you had asked me the likelihood of all three of those things happening, I’d have put it around the same likelihood as Mike Mussina winning 20 games. 

Giambi managed to achieve all three things for the most part.  His glove was bad, but not horrifically bad, and he was productive and healthy for most of the year, although 45% of his production came in the 45 games from April 22 - Jun 17 where he hit .319/.441/.694 (40 BR).  Over the other 100 games he played, he hit .213/.342/.414 (48 BR).  I don’t know if this type of split is particularly meaningful, so consider it just a random factoid.

The 2008 projections for Giambi weren’t bad on a rate basis (.245/.387/.474) but his playing time projections were pretty pessimistic (300 PA).  He projected to be worth about 46 batting runs because of that.  Instead, Giambi hit for a little more power but a little less OBP (.247/.373/.502), but thanks to exceeding his playing time projections he was far more valuable than he projected to be, exceeding his projected batting runs by 42 runs, a 4.2 win offensive upgrade.  The 2008 Yankees’ underperformance from their pre-season projections can’t be laid at Giambi’s feet.

Second Base
Pass.

Well, I wish I could pass anyway.  Robinson Cano seemed to be on the cusp of becoming the best 2B in the AL.  Cano projected to hit .308/.348/.482 and play plus defense and was at an age where he could still realistically be expected to improve.  Cano’s projected offense over 585 plate appearances would have made him worth 84 batting runs. Instead, Cano digressed in just about every facet of his game, hitting .271/.305/.410 over 634 PA, which was only worth 68 BR.  This was a downgrade of 1.6 wins.

Third Base
Boo.

Alex Rodriguez was justifiably the AL’s MVP in 2007.  He was rightfully expected to regress somewhat in 2008, projected to hit .300/.406/.574 over 650 PA, which would have been worth 123 batting runs.  On a rate basis, he basically hit his projection, but thanks to a leg injury that cost him 56 PA compared to his projection, he was 14 runs less valuable than projected, a downgrade of 1.4 wins.  It’s also a fact that Rodriguez’s performance in more crucial plate appearances were less productive than his context-neutral numbers show. This was not a problem exclusive to Rodriguez, so I’ll devote a section to that as well.

Shortstop
Derek Jeter came into 2008 projected to hit .307/.379/.438 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 86 BR.  A late hot streak pushed him closer to his projections as he ended the season at .300/.363/.408 over 668 PA, a total of 82 BR.  He was less valuable than projected on a rate basis, but by exceeding his projected playing time his overall value was only about four runs less than projected.

Left Field
Johnny Damon was shifted to LF due to his defensive decline, the seeming emergence of Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui’s bad knees.  This looked like a disaster in the making coming off a poor offensive 2007, although it did also seem like a defensive upgrade.  Damon projected to hit .280/.353/.423 over 585 PA, a line that would have been worth 78 batting runs.  He blew that away by hitting .303/.375/.461 over 623 PA.  So like first base, left field ended up as a net gain on the pre-season projections, to the tune of 15 runs, or 1.5 wins.

Center Field
After a promising rookie season, Melky Cabrera declined in 2007.  The projections expected him to bounce back, thanks in part to his youth.  Melky was projected to hit .282/.344/.406 over 550 PA for a total of 68 BR.  Instead, he got even worse, hitting .249/.301/.341 over 453 PA before mercifully being demoted to Scranton.  Cabrera’s line was a downgrade of 27 BR, or 2.7 wins.  And that’s all I have to say about that.

Right Field
Bobby Abreu came into 2008 projected to hit .277/.383/.439 over 600 PA, which would have been worth 89 BR.  He exceeded that by hitting .296/.371/.471 over 684 PA, worth a total of 101 BR.  Luckily for Abreu, we’re ignoring defense for now, and this was an offensive upgrade of 12 runs or 1.2 wins.

Designated Hitter
Hideki Matsui was penciled in as the primary DH coming into 2008 and his projection was pretty good, .287/.367/.477 over 500 PA, equivalent to around 74 BR.  Unfortunately, after a hot start to the season, Matsui’s knees gave out on him and he missed a significant part of the season and when he managed to come back was very unproductive, ending 2008 with a line of .294/.370/.424 over 378 PA for a total of 50 BR.  That’s a 24 run/2.4 win falloff.

So just looking at the starting nine, we see that the Yankees projected to hit .289/.372/.465 over 4870 PA, which would have been worth 724 BR.  Instead, the starting nine hit .280/.352/.443 over 4896 PA, for a total of 653 BR.  That’s a 71 run drop off or 7.1 win drop off.

The Bench
Projecting the bench is usually tricky, but at least on paper the Yankee bench looked to be serviceable this year, with Wilson Betemit, Morgan Ensberg, Jose Molina, Shelley Duncan, Brett Gardner, Alberto Gonzalez, Nick Green, Jason Lane and Chris Woodward the likely candidates to see playing time.  I had the bench projected to hit .247/.319/.404 over 1811 PA, which would have been worth 209 BR.  Instead, the collection of Betemit, Ensberg, Posada,  Duncan, Gardner, Gonzalez, Justin Christian, Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, Chad Moeller, Xavier Nady, Ivan Rodriguez, Richie Sexson, Chris Stewart and Cody Ransom hit over .244/.306/.380 over 1339 PA for a total of 140 BR. That’s a 69 run underperformance.

Clutchness
Regular watchers of the 2008 Yankees as well as regular readers of this blog also know from a variety of different methods that the Yankees underperformed with runners on base.  Using the method I like best (Fangraph’s batting runs above average based on run expectancy), here’s a look at how the Yankees’ players context neutral batting runs compared to their contextualized batting runs in 2008.

Overall, the difference was small, but I think we can all pick out several games where the Yankees failure to come up with hits in big spots cost them wins.

cnBRAA: context-neutral batting runs above average.
cxtBRAA: contextualized batting runs above average.
Diff: cxtBRAA - cnBRAA.

I don’t know how good or bad the team baserunning has been aside from stolen bases, which are already included in the batting runs above, so we’ll assume they were average.

Let’s roll all that up.

So we had a team that was supposed to score 933 runs or so.  Their starting nine created 71 fewer runs than expected, and their bench created 69 fewer than expected, for a total shortfall of around 141 runs.  Subract another three runs for unclutchness.

933 run projection - 141 actual underperformance - 3 clutchness = 789.

How many runs did the 2008 Yankees score?  789. That’s creepy, huh?

If you were to rate the biggest reasons for the Yankees’ offensive underperformance, it’d be:
1) Losing Jorge Posada (55 runs)
2) Melky Cabrera sucking ass (27 runs)
3) Hideki Matsui’s knee causing him to both miss time and to underperform when he returned (24 runs)
4) Robinson Cano becoming Wayne Tolleson (16 runs)

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Tuesday, September 9, 2008

AL Zone Rating Rankings through Sept 8, 2008

Minimum of 500 innings.







*adjusted for Green Monster

G: Games.
INN: Defensive innings at position.
Ch: Fieldable chances (chances converted into an out at least 50% of the time by all fielders)
ZR: Zone rating (plays made divided by fieldable chances)
PM: Plays made
Avg ZR: Average zone rating for all players at position
Avg PM: Average plays made (Avg ZR times Ch)
Diff: Difference between PM and Avg PM (PM - Avg PM)
RS: Runs saved (Diff times run value for each play not made at position)

Someone had requested these a while back and I said I’d get them up that day or the next.  Here we are weeks later…

--Posted at 10:51 am by SG / 46 Comments | - (614)

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Who is the AL LVP?

Instead of doing what most writers are doing lately and looking at the AL MVP, here's a list of the AL LVP candidates, using position-adjusted batting runs above/below replacement level, defensive runs saved above average by zone rating and pitching runs saved above/below replacement level.

Name	Team	Pos	pBRAR	dRSAA	pRSAR	TR
Batista, Miguel	SEA	RP			-24	-24
Mendoza, Luis A	TEX	SP			-24	-24
Silva, Carlos	SEA	SP			-20	-20
Sexson, Richie	SEA/NYA	1B	0	-18		-18
Pena, Tony	KC	SS	-17	0		-16
Gobble, Jimmy	KC	RP			-15	-15
Bonser, Boof	MIN	RP			-15	-15
Vidro, Jose	SEA	DH	-14	-1		-15
Hunter, Tommy	TEX	SP			-12	-12
O'Flaherty, Eric G	SEA	RP			-12	-12
Lamb, Mike	MIN	3B	-6	-5		-11
Trachsel, Steve	BAL	SP			-11	-11
Tomko, Brett	KC	SP			-10	-10
Balentien, Wladimir	SEA	RF	-6	-4		-10
Bannister, Brian P	KC	SP			-10	-10
Crisp, Coco	BOS	CF	4	-13		-9
Nippert, Dustin D	TEX	RP			-9	-9
Jennings, Jason	TEX	SP			-8	-8
Kennedy, Ian	NYA	SP			-8	-8
Gallagher, Sean	OAK	SP			-8	-8
Marte, Andy	CLE	3B	-10	2		-8
Wood, Brandon	LAA	3B	-8	0		-8
Ensberg, Morgan	NYA	3B	-5	-3		-8
Johjima, Kenji	SEA	C	-9	2		-8
Monroe, Craig	MIN	DH	-3	-4		-7
Gathright, Joey	KC	CF	-7	0		-7
Broussard, Ben	TEX	1B	-6	-1		-7
Lowe, Mark C	SEA	RP			-7	-7
Mastny, Tom R	CLE	RP			-7	-7
Cash, Kevin	BOS	C	-1	-6		-7
Gload, Ross	KC	1B	-6	-1		-7
Bootcheck, Chris	LAA	RP			-7	-7
Hughes, Phil	NYA	SP			-7	-7
Ramirez, Elizardo	TEX	RP			-7	-7
German, Esteban	KC	2B	-3	-4		-7
Liz, Radhames	BAL	SP			-6	-6
Wassermann, Ehren	CHA	RP			-6	-6
Nomo, Hideo	KC	RP			-6	-6
Fukumori, Kazuo	TEX	RP			-6	-6
Fulchino, Jeff P	KC	RP			-6	-6
Sowers, Jeremy B	CLE	SP			-6	-6
Bazardo, Yorman M	DET	RP			-6	-6
Aquino, Greg	BAL	RP			-6	-6
DiNardo, Lenny E	OAK	RP			-5	-5
Willis, Dontrelle	DET	SP			-5	-5
Mujica, Edward J	CLE	RP			-5	-5
Bynum, Freddie	BAL	SS	-7	2		-5
Cairo, Miguel	SEA	1B	-4	-1		-5
Richard, Clayton C	CHA	SP			-5	-5
Bauer, Rick	CLE	RP			-5	-5

pBRAR: Position-adusted batting runs above replacement using linear weights
dRSAA: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating
pRSAR: Pitching runs saved above replacement

TR: Total runs (pBRAR + dRSAA + pRSAR)

At least we're not Mariners fans, right?

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 66 Comments | - (381)

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Friday, August 15, 2008

NY Post - Sherman: MELKY TO MINORS, SEXSON WAIVED

In a move designed to boost the Yankees New York Yankees ’ sagging offense, the team today will demote Melky Cabrera Melky Cabrera to the minors, waive Richie Sexson, and promote Brett Gardner and Cody Ransom from Triple-A, The Post has learned.

I approve, although I’m not seeing an offensive upgrade when the replacements are Gardner and Ransom.

--Posted at 2:57 pm by SG / 36 Comments | - (266)

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Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Yankee Offense, Pitching and Defense since the All Star Break Winning Streak

Remember that eight game winning streak after the All Star Break? Me either.

Anyway, here's how the Yankees have done over the 18 games since then.

Offense

Player	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAA
Xavier Nady	17	62	10	21	5	0	6	17	2	3	16	0	0	2	.339	.388	.710	15	7.0
Johnny Damon	17	72	12	26	1	1	2	11	8	0	10	4	0	1	.361	.425	.486	14	5.4
Bobby Abreu	18	72	15	24	5	0	4	12	8	0	14	1	2	1	.333	.400	.569	14	5.3
Alex Rodriguez	18	66	14	17	5	0	6	9	8	4	17	1	1	6	.258	.372	.606	14	3.9
Jason Giambi	16	45	5	13	0	0	3	9	8	2	13	0	0	0	.289	.418	.489	9	3.3
Richie Sexson	14	21	2	6	1	0	1	4	3	0	7	0	0	0	.286	.375	.476	4	0.9
Jose Molina	12	31	7	8	1	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	.258	.324	.387	4	-0.4
Justin Christian	11	18	2	4	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	4	0	0	.222	.222	.278	2	-0.8
Chad Moeller	4	6	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	.167	.167	.167	0	-0.9
Ivan Rodriguez	11	27	5	7	1	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	0	2	.259	.286	.407	3	-1.2
Derek Jeter	17	65	6	18	2	0	1	10	8	0	13	2	1	4	.277	.347	.354	8	-1.4
Wilson Betemit	14	39	5	11	1	0	1	5	0	0	11	0	0	2	.282	.282	.385	3	-1.9
Robinson Cano	17	62	7	13	2	1	1	6	6	0	8	0	0	5	.210	.279	.323	5	-4.8
Melky Cabrera	17	45	5	8	0	1	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	1	.178	.213	.222	1	-5.4
Total	203	631	95	177	25	3	27	88	55	11	126	13	4	24	.281	.348	.458	95	8.9

BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAA: BR compared to average (not position-adjusted)

I know we like to pick on WOE, but overall they haven't been the biggest problem on the team, although the Melky and Cano two-headed monster of disappointment continues to be a problem. We have enough data that shows that Cano is better than this that I'm inclined to think this is just a blip season for him and we should expect better next year. How much better? Who knows? With Melky, the Yankees have to do something to upgrade CF next year. The free agent market is thin, so it may take a trade.

Xavier Nady has been very good, and that bodes well for next season. He's not this good, but he'll probably project to be better than he ever has been in the past. Bobby Abreu has been solid lately too, which will hopefully make him attractive to other teams in the offseason. I don't see the sense in the Yankees bringing him back with Nady around.

Pitching

Player	G	GS	CG	GF	W	L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	HBP	ERA	RA	FIP	RSAA
Daniel Giese	5	1	0	2	0	0	0	14.0	10	4	4	1	6	8	1	2.57	2.57	4.49	3.4
Mike Mussina	4	4	0	0	2	1	0	26.0	26	11	10	2	5	20	0	3.46	3.81	3.24	2.7
Jose Veras	8	0	0	3	1	0	0	8.3	6	2	2	2	2	12	2	2.16	2.16	4.88	2.4
Billy Traber	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	3.20	0.2
Mariano Rivera	6	0	0	5	0	1	2	5.7	7	3	3	2	1	4	0	4.76	4.76	6.91	0.0
Brian Bruney	6	0	0	2	0	0	0	5.3	5	3	3	0	5	5	0	5.06	5.06	4.14	-0.2
Sidney Ponson	4	4	0	0	1	2	0	25.0	25	14	14	3	8	8	1	5.04	5.04	5.20	-0.9
Christopher Britton	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3.7	7	3	3	1	0	1	0	7.36	7.36	6.20	-1.1
Joba Chamberlain	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	10.7	13	7	6	2	2	11	0	5.06	5.91	4.14	-1.4
Kyle Farnsworth	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	2	0	18.00	18.00	12.20	-1.5
Ian Kennedy	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	2.0	9	5	5	0	1	1	0	22.50	22.50	3.70	-3.9
Darrell Rasner	4	3	0	0	0	2	0	19.3	24	15	14	3	7	10	1	6.52	6.98	5.42	-4.8
Damaso Marte	8	0	0	1	0	2	0	7.0	9	9	9	1	5	10	0	11.57	11.57	4.34	-5.3
Edwar Ramirez	8	0	0	2	1	1	1	5.3	8	9	8	2	2	7	0	13.50	15.19	6.58	-6.2
David Robertson	5	0	0	1	0	0	0	7.0	11	11	11	2	6	10	0	14.14	14.14	6.63	-7.3
Andy Pettitte	3	3	0	0	0	2	0	17.3	27	17	17	3	8	12	0	8.83	8.83	5.45	-7.9
Total	67	18	0	17	6	12	3	158.0	190	115	111	25	58	121	5	6.32	6.55	4.92	-32.0

FIP: Fielding independent pitching ERA (13 times HR plus 3 times (BB + HBP) - 2 times SO)/IP + 3.2). Regresses BABIP to league average.

RSAA: Runs saved above average, using earned and unearned runs

The pitching staff has been really bad, although it's not entirely their fault as we will soon see.

Defense*

Player	Team	AL	Pos	G	GS	Ch	INN	PO	A	E	DP	ZR	PM	Avg PM	Diff	RS
Cabrera, Melky	NYY	AL	CF	14	10	28	92.7	26	0	0	0	.929	26	24	2	2
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	2B	2	2	6	16	2	6	1	1	1.000	6	5	1	1
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	1B	3	2	4	17.3	18	1	0	2	1.000	4	3	1	1
Christian, Justin	NYY	AL	CF	3	3	5	22.1	5	1	0	0	1.000	5	4	1	0
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	SS	4	1	9	18	4	9	0	3	.889	8	7	1	0
Betemit, Wilson	NYY	AL	3B	2	2	6	18	0	5	0	1	.833	5	5	0	0
Nady, Xavier	NYY	AL	LF	10	10	21	87	18	2	0	0	.857	18	18	0	0
Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	CF	3	3	9	27	8	0	0	0	.889	8	8	0	0
Christian, Justin	NYY	AL	LF	3	1	3	11	2	0	0	0	.667	2	3	-1	0
Jeter, Derek	NYY	AL	SS	15	15	47	124	17	38	0	3	.809	38	39	-1	0
Nady, Xavier	NYY	AL	RF	2	2	5	17	4	0	0	0	.600	3	4	-1	-1
Sexson, Richie	NYY	AL	1B	11	3	8	44	44	2	0	3	.625	5	7	-2	-1
Damon, Johnny	NYY	AL	LF	7	5	13	44	9	0	0	0	.692	9	11	-2	-2
Rodriguez, Alex	NYY	AL	3B	14	14	29	122	4	21	0	5	.690	20	22	-2	-2
Abreu, Bobby	NYY	AL	RF	14	14	46	122	38	1	0	0	.804	37	40	-3	-3
Giambi, Jason	NYY	AL	1B	11	11	17	80.7	72	4	0	6	.588	10	14	-4	-3
Cano, Robinson	NYY	AL	2B	15	14	60	126	29	43	3	9	.650	39	48	-9	-7
Total				133	112	316	988.8	300	133	4	33	.769	243	264	-21	-16

*Defensive numbers don't include today's debacle.

INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved

This is just a lost season for Cano on both sides of the ball. He now rates below average defensively according to zone rating. I am sure his offensive struggles aren't helping his defense.

Giambi and Abreu being bad on defense isn't exactly a surprise, although Damon and A-Rod were both having solid seasons until recently. There's some double-counting between the pitching and the defense here, but it's safe to assume the Yankees have been somewhere between 20-30 runs worse than average over this stretch. An average team would in theory go 9-9 over 18 games, although the split of 8 home games and 10 road games might make that 8-10 instead. So the Yankees 6-12 record is right in line with their overall crappy performance.

I'm pretty sure this road trip has knocked the Yankees out of playoff contention at this point, but maybe they've got one more good streak in them.

Baltimore Aquarium Contest
The Yankees are going to be in Baltimore next weekend and I've been offered a prize package to give to anyone who may be interested in attending any of the games by the Baltimore National Aquarium. The prize consists of:

- A family four-pack of tickets to the National Aquarium
- An overnight stay at one of three Harbor Magic Hotels

National Aquarium in Baltimore (501 East Pratt Street, Baltimore, Maryland, 21202)
The National Aquarium was rated #1 for all Baltimore things to do and is a favorite attraction among visitors to the area. Home to over 16,000 animals, the Aquarium features habitats from around the world including Animal Planet Australia: Wild Extremes, an exciting dolphin show and a new 4-D Immersion Theater. The Aquarium's location in Baltimore's Inner Harbor, which is in walking distance to the stadium, makes it easy to plan a visit before or after a game.
410-576-3800

www.aqua.org

Hotel (Three locations in downtown Baltimore)
Harbor Magic Hotels consist of three unique boutique hotels located in and around Baltimore's famous Inner Harbor. Each is delightfully different, yet all three are centered on delivering exceptional personalized visits that let you experience Baltimore as few others can.

866-583-4162

www.harbormagic.com

I'm going to offer the prize to whomever can answer the following question first. If no one answers by EOD tomorrow I'll just take the first email that expresses interest by EOD Friday

Who is the Yankees' career leader in runs saved by zone rating? (Note: Zone rating has only been tracked since 1987)

Just email me through the site if you are interested.

--Posted at 6:49 pm by SG / 145 Comments | - (306)

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Monday, August 11, 2008

Yankees.com: No offense in opener

On most nights, the performance Sidney Ponson turned in would equal a victory for the Yankees. But not on Monday. Although Ponson pitched 7 2/3 solid innings, the Bombers’ offense was unable to push a run across against Twins lefty Glen Perkins.

As much fun as it is to beat on Pontoon, he did his job tonight, but the offense sucked.  Joe Girardi tried to use platooning against the Twins’ lefty, but if platooning means Justin Christian and Richie Sexson playing over Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi in a game that you can’t afford to lose, maybe platooning needs to be re-examined.

At the risk of incurring the wrath of Jeter is King, I am declaring the Yankees’ playoff hopes dead.  It was a great run while it lasted…

--Posted at 10:21 pm by SG / 237 Comments | - (225)

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Clutchness and the 2008 Yankees

In the previous thread, PhilRizzuto raised a question about how bad the Yankees have been hitting this year with runners in scoring position. I think anyone who's watched this team all season knows they've been bad even without looking at the numbers, but since I'm a stat dork, let's look at some stats.

First off, let's take a look at the 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout. According to the aggregate of six different projection systems, the Yankees projected to score 924 runs this year. Losing Alex Rodriguez for a month and losing Jorge Posada obviously put a damper on that.

In addition, the run environment in the AL is down this year. Last year, AL teams averaged 4.93 runs per game and hit for a line of .271/.338/.423. This year they are averaging 4.71 runs per game and are hitting .266/.334/.416. So that's around a 4% reduction in run scoring. The standard deviation on the AL runs scored using last year's total of 11185 is 106 runs, so one standard deviation in either direction gives us 4.88 runs per game to 4.98 runs per game. Two standard deviations gives us 4.84 runs to 5.02 runs per game. So the lower AL scoring this season appears to be statistically significant.

Rank	Team	RF/G
1	Texas	5.61
2	Detroit	5.09
3	Chicago Sox	5.01
4	Boston	5.00
5	Minnesota	4.97
6	Baltimore	4.92
7	NY Yankees	4.82
8	LA Angels	4.73
9	Cleveland	4.66
10	Tampa Bay	4.61
11	Toronto	4.24
12	Kansas City	4.20
13	Seattle	4.12
14	Oakland	4.02

Still, the Yankees are 7th in the league in actual runs scored.

But what about the park factors you ask? Using a weighted average of 2006-2008, here's how the rankings would look (park factors from The 4 letter.com).

Rank	Team	PkAdj RF/G
1	Texas	5.39
2	Minnesota	5.30
3	Detroit	4.91
4	Tampa Bay	4.81
5	Chicago Sox	4.81
6	Boston	4.75
7	Baltimore	4.73
8	NY Yankees	4.66
9	LA Angels	4.61
10	Cleveland	4.60
11	Toronto	4.33
12	Seattle	4.26
13	Oakland	4.23
14	Kansas City	4.14

Either way, the Yankee offense has been mediocre this year, despite projecting to be one of the better ones in the league. They are on pace to score 781 runs, That's a falloff of almost 200 runs from last season.

According to linear weights, the context-independent batting events that the Yankee offense has accrued this year should total 586 runs. Using runs created instead of linear weights says they should have scored 598. So why have they only scored 568?

First of all, the Yankees have hit into what seems like a million double plays. The actual number is 109, which is the fourth highest total in the league. Adding those DPs into linear weights knocks the runs scored estimate down by 11 runs. But getting back to the clutch thing, The Hardball Times tracks a stat called 'clutch' coincidentally enough. Now the whole concept of clutch is murky and hard to define, so this is just one of probably a million different ways to measure it. Anyway, the definition of clutch they are using is based of the 2002 version of Bill James's runs created and is defined as:

Hits(with runners in scoring position) - (AB with RISP times BA) + HR(with runners on base) - (AB(with runners on base) times HR)/AB).

or


Clutch is expressed in terms of runs above and below average. Here's how the Yankees rate.

Tm	Clutch
MIN	37
LAA	35
BAL	27
OAK	22
KC	20
CHA	14
CLE	14
TEX	12
DET	-9
TOR	-11
SEA	-11
BOS	-15
TB	-18
NYA	-26

I know it's hard to believe, but yes, the Yankees are the unclutchest(is that a word?) team in the AL this year. Here are the individuals and their clutch rankings.

Last, First	Tm	Lg	Pos	Clutch
Damon, Johnny	NYA	AL	LF	7
Abreu, Bobby	NYA	AL	RF	4.5
Gardner, Brett	NYA	AL	LF	3.6
Christian, Justin	NYA	AL	LF	1.8
Matsui, Hideki	NYA	AL	DH	0.8
Sexson, Richie	NYA	AL	1B	0.5
Moeller, Chad	NYA	AL	C	0.4
Jeter, Derek	NYA	AL	SS	0.1
Stewart, Chris D	NYA	AL	C	0
Duncan, Shelley	NYA	AL	1B	-0.3
Posada, Jorge	NYA	AL	C	-1.2
Gonzalez, Alberto R	NYA	AL	SS	-1.3
Ensberg, Morgan	NYA	AL	3B	-1.6
Cano, Robinson	NYA	AL	2B	-1.7
Nady, Xavier	NYA	AL	LF	-2.1
Molina, Jose	NYA	AL	C	-3.5
Betemit, Wilson	NYA	AL	1B	-3.9
Rodriguez, Ivan	NYA	AL	C	-5.3
Cabrera, Melky	NYA	AL	CF	-5.5
Giambi, Jason	NYA	AL	1B	-10.3
Rodriguez, Alex	NYA	AL	3B	-13.2

Now I'm not really going to get into the whole clutch hitting as a skill thing here. Well, maybe just for a second. This is not a measure of a player's clutch skill/ability, it's a measure of their value in the current season. Last year, Alex Rodriguez's clutch rating was +9.8. Did Madonna make him unclutch? In 2006 it was +3.2, in 2005 it -8.8.

It's definitely a problem when your two best offensive players aren't hitting with runners in scoring position though. And how the hell is Pudge -5.3 already? He's only played in like 5 games.

If we add those clutch values to the players' position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level here's how the players rank.

Last, First	Tm	Lg	Pos	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	pBRAR	Clutch	Total
Damon, Johnny	NYA	AL	LF	443	.322	.392	.459	26.9	7	33.9
Rodriguez, Alex	NYA	AL	3B	420	.315	.402	.599	45.4	-13.2	32.2
Abreu, Bobby	NYA	AL	RF	500	.287	.358	.467	19.2	4.5	23.7
Giambi, Jason	NYA	AL	1B	397	.252	.393	.517	29.5	-10.3	19.2
Jeter, Derek	NYA	AL	SS	499	.283	.346	.398	18.9	0.1	19.0
Matsui, Hideki	NYA	AL	DH	285	.323	.404	.458	14.5	0.8	15.3
Posada, Jorge	NYA	AL	C	195	.268	.364	.411	8.6	-1.2	7.4
Nady, Xavier	NYA	AL	LF	58	.365	.431	.731	8.0	-2.1	5.9
Christian, Justin	NYA	AL	LF	39	.278	.333	.361	1.0	1.8	2.8
Sexson, Richie	NYA	AL	1B	30	.292	.400	.458	1.7	0.5	2.2
Moeller, Chad	NYA	AL	C	84	.227	.310	.333	0.4	0.4	0.8
Stewart, Chris D	NYA	AL	C	3	.000	.000	.000	-0.7	0	-0.7
Gardner, Brett	NYA	AL	LF	68	.153	.227	.169	-4.8	3.6	-1.2
Duncan, Shelley	NYA	AL	1B	65	.175	.262	.281	-2.9	-0.3	-3.2
Cano, Robinson	NYA	AL	2B	461	.263	.300	.397	-3.1	-1.7	-4.8
Rodriguez, Ivan	NYA	AL	C	19	.278	.316	.444	0.2	-5.3	-5.1
Gonzalez, Alberto R	NYA	AL	SS	58	.173	.232	.212	-3.9	-1.3	-5.2
Betemit, Wilson	NYA	AL	1B	153	.253	.276	.411	-2.2	-3.9	-6.1
Ensberg, Morgan	NYA	AL	3B	80	.203	.263	.243	-5.1	-1.6	-6.7
Molina, Jose	NYA	AL	C	237	.230	.278	.315	-4.1	-3.5	-7.6
Cabrera, Melky	NYA	AL	CF	435	.245	.299	.341	-7.9	-5.5	-13.4

Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi's clutch performances hurt their value, but they still have been valuable this year, just not as valuable as the raw numbers may show. Johnny Popup isn't a bad player, but if he's your most valuable offensive performer you probably have issues. And boy, does Melky stink.

Do I think clutch hitters exist? Not really, but I do think unclutch hitters can exist, and I do think pressure can have some impact, although it's my opinion that it's not nearly as big of a deal as it's made out to be by the mass media. Also, this is just one definition of clutch, a different definiton may show something totally different, so keep that in mind.

So yeah, the 2008 Yankees have been unclutch by this measure. I'm guessing you didn't need a blog entry to know that though.

--Posted at 9:25 am by SG / 67 Comments | - (292)

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Sunday, July 27, 2008

Top MLB hitters Since the 2008 All Star Break

Rk	Player	G	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
1	Ryan J Braun	9	37	6	16	2	3	4	12	3	5	1	0	0	.432	.465	.973	13.1
2	Carlos Delgado	9	34	7	14	2	0	5	14	7	4	0	0	1	.412	.523	.912	12.9
3	Matt Holliday	9	34	10	14	4	0	3	9	6	3	1	0	0	.412	.512	.794	11.4
4	Conor Jackson	8	33	10	16	2	1	3	7	4	5	1	0	1	.485	.541	.879	11.4
5	Adam LaRoche	10	37	7	14	3	0	4	8	5	9	0	0	0	.378	.452	.784	10.8
6	Brad Hawpe	9	40	7	17	4	0	3	10	2	11	0	0	0	.425	.452	.750	10.7
7	David Wright	9	35	11	13	3	0	2	10	10	5	2	0	0	.371	.500	.629	10.7
8	Jeff Baker	8	31	11	15	3	1	2	5	4	6	2	0	2	.484	.543	.839	10.6
9	Melvin Mora	10	39	7	15	3	0	4	15	2	1	0	1	0	.385	.442	.769	10.5
10	Robinson Cano	8	35	6	18	3	0	3	10	1	2	0	1	2	.514	.528	.857	10.4
11	Carlos Quentin	8	29	11	10	1	0	5	8	5	5	0	0	3	.345	.472	.897	9.8
12	Alex Rodriguez	8	30	8	13	3	0	2	9	5	6	2	0	0	.433	.514	.733	9.8
13	Adrian Gonzalez	10	37	6	13	4	0	3	11	5	5	0	0	2	.351	.429	.703	9.5
14	Luke Scott	10	30	5	10	3	0	4	10	6	7	0	0	1	.333	.432	.833	9.4
15	Troy Glaus	10	40	8	12	4	0	3	10	6	9	0	0	0	.300	.391	.625	9.1
16	Mark Teixeira	8	28	8	10	2	0	3	8	8	5	0	0	1	.357	.500	.750	9.0
17	Ken Griffey Jr.	9	33	6	11	4	1	2	6	5	5	0	0	0	.333	.436	.697	8.9
18	Jeremy Hermida	9	29	7	9	1	0	5	5	3	9	1	0	0	.310	.394	.862	8.8
19	Alexis Rios	9	40	7	12	4	0	4	8	1	6	4	1	2	.300	.310	.700	8.7
20	Edwin Encarnacion	9	30	7	9	1	0	4	7	7	5	0	0	2	.300	.447	.733	8.7

BR: Batting runs by linear weights(not position-adjusted or compared to average)

And here's how just the Yankees have done since the ASB.

Player	G	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR
Robinson Cano	8	35	6	18	3	0	3	10	1	2	0	1	2	.514	.528	.857	10.4
Alex Rodriguez	8	30	8	13	3	0	2	9	5	6	2	0	0	.433	.514	.733	9.8
Bobby Abreu	8	32	9	11	3	0	1	7	5	3	1	1	1	.344	.432	.531	6.5
Derek Jeter	8	37	7	11	4	0	1	5	3	6	0	0	0	.297	.350	.486	6.0
Xavier Nady	8	25	8	10	2	0	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	.400	.464	.600	5.5
Jason Giambi	6	17	1	4	0	0	1	4	9	8	0	0	0	.235	.500	.412	4.5
Melky Cabrera	8	33	4	11	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	1	.333	.353	.394	3.8
Wilson Betemit	5	9	1	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	.333	.400	.444	1.5
Justin Christian	4	4	1	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	1	1	0	.500	.600	.750	1.3
Richie Sexson	8	7	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	1	.143	.364	.143	0.8
Brett Gardner	6	23	2	3	1	0	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	.130	.167	.174	0.1
Total	77	252	47	87	20	0	9	43	32	43	5	5	5	.307	.397	.461	50.3

--Posted at 9:56 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (229)

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Monday, July 21, 2008

Breaking Down Richie Sexson

While I was on vacation the Yankees picked up Richie Sexson, who was having a horrible season following a bad season in 2007.I got an email request from a reader named Jeff to see if there was any possibility that Sexson's had a long run of bad luck that makes him look worse than he actually is. My first impression would be that he's not been unlucky, he's just aged and is pretty close to the end of the line, but let's see what the numbers show.

First up, here is Sexson's projection entering 2008, his 2008 YTD performance, and his revised projection based on his YTD performance.

Sexson,Richie	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	BR
Projection	415	58	97	23	0	21	68	51	100	4	1	1	.234	.323	.441	60
Year-to-Date	256	27	56	8	0	11	31	39	78	0	1	0	.219	.322	.379	33
Rest-of-Year	168	22	40	8	0	8	24	22	41	1	1	0	.238	.330	.429	24
Total	424	49	96	16	0	19	55	61	119	1	2	0	.226	.325	.399	57

It's worth noting that this projection is for Sexson in Seattle. As a Yankee he'd have projected to be around 4% better depending on how park factors are handled. It's also probably worth noting that that projection stinks for a poor defensive 1B.

One thing that John Sterling was harping on is how well Sexson has hit lefties, which is true (.338/.429/.600 in 77 PA vs lefties compared to .178/.281/.304 in 221 PA vs. righties). However, we're talking about a very small sample size, so let's look at Sexson's platoon splits for 2005-2008. I don't see the sense going back any further than that since Sexson's skill level has declined to the point where those performances are probably meaningless.

Year	Split	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	BB/PA	K/PA	Ratio
2005	vs RHP	151	503	435	106	25	0	30	90	61	133	5	.244	.342	.508	.850	.277	12.1%	26.4%	87%
	vs LHP	60	153	123	41	11	1	9	31	28	34	1	.333	.458	.659	1.116	.395	18.3%	22.2%	151%
2006	vs RHP	152	500	454	128	29	0	27	87	39	114	4	.282	.342	.524	.866	.320	7.8%	22.8%	105%
	vs LHP	75	163	137	28	11	0	7	20	25	40	0	.204	.325	.438	.763	.231	15.3%	24.5%	84%
2007	vs RHP	115	371	329	64	14.00	0	17	48	36	75	5	.195	.283	.392	.675	.197	9.7%	20.2%	94%
	vs LHP	51	120	105	25	7	0	4	15	15	25	0	.238	.333	.419	.752	.276	12.5%	20.8%	119%
2008	vs RHP	72	221	191	34	6	0	6	18	28	63	0	.178	.281	.304	.584	.226	12.7%	28.5%	71%
	vs LHP	36	77	65	22	2	0	5	13	11	15	0	.338	.429	.600	1.029	.370	14.3%	19.5%	213%

The ratio column is just a comparison of Sexson's performance in the specific split compared to his overall performance on a rate basis.As you can see, Sexson has for the most part hit lefties better than righties, but this year's disparity looks like a fluke.

Here's how his splits look if you total them up.

Year	Split	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	BB/PA	K/PA	Ratio
2005-2008	vs RHP	490	1595	1409	332	74	0	80	243	164	385	14	.236	.320	.458	.778	.265	10.3%	24.1%	93%
	vs LHP	222	513	430	116	31	1	25	79	79	114	1	.270	.382	.521	.903	.310	15.4%	22.2%	126%
	Total	712	2108	1839	448	105	1	105	322	243	499	15	.244	.335	.473	.808	.275	11.5%	23.7%

So yeah, Sexson does have a pretty good track record of hitting lefties and that makes him useful as a bench player at the very least.

We can also look at Sexson's batted ball data to see if he may have been unlucky over the past couple of years.

Year	BB%	K%	LD%	BABIP	xBABIP	Diff	H	xH
2005	13.8%	29.9%	20.1%	.307	.321	-.014	109	114
2006	9.8%	26.1%	17.9%	.303	.299	.004	123	122
2007	10.5%	23.0%	14.9%	.217	.269	-.052	68	85
2008	13.2%	30.5%	18.8%	.269	.308	-.039	46	52
Total	11.8%	27.4%	17.9%	.278	.299	-.021	346	373

In the chart above, BB% and K% are just walks and strikeouts divided by plate appearances. BABIP is batting average on balls in play. LD% is the percentage of balls in play that are line drives. xBABIP is the expected BABIP and is calculated by adding 0.12 to the LD%. Diff is just BABIP - xBABIP. As we can see, Sexson has generally had a lower than expected BABIP, although it's really gotten worse over the last two seasons. His LD% this year is better than it's been since 2006, so there's a possiblity that he may have been slightly unlucky this year, but I don't think we'll be seeing a Giambi-style resurgence or anything. If Sexson's BABIP this year was equal to his xBABIP he'd have 6 more hits, which would move his line from (.219/.319/.379 to .242/.339/.402). That's still not very good.

Lastly, a quick look at Sexson's defense.

Year	Ch	Diff	RS	RS/162
2005	263	-17	-14	-15
2006	264	-8	-6	-7
2007	201	-15	-12	-18

Ch: Fieldable chances.
Diff: Plays made above/below average.
RS: Runs saved.
RS/162:RS pro-rated to 1440 defensive innings.

This is strictly a look at chances hit in Sexson's zone of responsibility that are converted to outs. He may be a little better than those numbers if we look at his scooping ability and longer reach giving the infielders a bigger target, but probably not more than just a couple of runs.

Sexson's a useful bench player if used correctly I think. I still think the Yankees are a bat short if Hideki Matsui is actually done for the year, because I don't think Sexson as full-time 1B and Giambi as full-time DH is going to be good enough to help this team win. It'd be nice if the Yankees could pick up a solid bat to DH against righties with Giambi at first. I wonder if such a player is available?

--Posted at 7:58 am by SG / 131 Comments | - (238)

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Thursday, July 17, 2008

MLB.com: Yankees reportedly sign Sexson

NEW YORK—Looking to add some thump to their lineup against left-handed pitching, the Yankees have added slugger Richie Sexson for the remainder of the season, according to multiple reports.

Sexson was released by the Seattle Mariners on July 10 and cleared waivers, making him a free agent. The Yankees have not officially confirmed the deal.

A first baseman by trade, Sexson would help complement Jason Giambi in the Yankees’ infield, with the right-handed-batting Sexson playing against left-handed starting pitching. He batted .344 with five home runs in 61 at-bats against lefties for Seattle before his release.

Big Sexy is getting fitted for pinstripes.  I guess it couldn’t hurt at this point.

--Posted at 5:58 pm by Jonathan / 463 Comments | - (408)

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Thursday, December 14, 2006

Who’s On First?

Right now the Yankees’ roster is apparently short at a position that is traditionally the biggest offensive position in baseball. They have Andy Phillips and drafted Josh Phelps in the Rule 5 draft, but neither one is particularly inspiring. The Yankees have been linked to free agents Doug Mientkiewicz, Shea Hillenbrand, Eduardo Perez, and Craig Wilson. There have also been rumors about the availability of Richie Sexson in trade. One other name I haven’t seen mentioned but who is available is Matt Lecroy.

None of these choices really seem all that appealing, but we can try and compare them based on how they project heading into 2007. To do this, I’m going to use the newest kid on the projection block, CHONE, by Sean Smith who runs the great sabermetric blog Anaheim Angels all the way. Smith’s one of the guys who got me into zone rating for analyzing defense and does a lot of other interesting work.

So, using Smith’s projections for offense and defense, here’s how the people listed above compare for 2007.

In the table above, def is the player’s projected defensive value in 2007. lw/600 is runs above/below average using linear weights and the projected numbers above for 600 plate appearances.

Richie Sexson’s the best projected player going forward, but he’d also be the most expensive to acquire in terms of salary and talent. It’s interesting to see that Andy Phillips still projects as the second best option despite his terrible season last year on offense. A lot of that is based on his solid minor league track record, but I don’t have much confidence in him matching that projection after watching Phillips hit last year. While I think translating minor league numbers is useful in many cases, it has limitations and someone like Phillips may be an example of those limitations.

It seems that Doug Mientkiewicz would be the best free agent option available, as he makes up for a lackluster -7 offensive projection with +5 defense, which would net out at -2, which is close enough to average. I’ve been championing Craig Wilson due to his ability to balance out a heavily left-handed lineup, but overall he would project to be about as valuable as Mientkiewicz. Full season numbers in a case like this need to be tempered with the platoon difference in mind. If Wilson makes the Yankees worse overall but better in games started by left-handers, it may change what appears to be a similar full-season contribution, but I have no easy way of quantifying that.

Wilson didn’t do much to impress the Yankees during his brief stint in the Bronx, and is supposedly looking for a long-term deal, so I’m not sure he’s much of an option.

A little worse than the Phillips/Mientkiewicz/Wilson triumverate is the Matt Lecroy, Eduardo Perez, Josh Phelps, and Shea Hillenbrand group. None are very good defensively by the numbers. Perez and/or Phelps may have some use as lefty mashers who don’t see a lot of defensive time. Lecroy is an average hitter but a pretty bad defender, and Shea Hillenbrand brings little to the table as far as I can see on either offense or defense.

So there you have it. A bunch of options, none of whom are that good. It doesn’t seem that it matters much whether it’s Mientkiewicz, Wilson, Phillips, Phelps or some combination of them. If only the Yankees could get Albert Pujols, who projects at +65 on offense+defense.

--Posted at 1:19 pm by SG / No Comments | No Trackbacks - (256)

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Wednesday, December 6, 2006

NY Post: SEXSON MIGHT BE 1ST OPTION

  While the Yankees met with Shea Hillenbrand’s agent yesterday, another option at first base surfaced. And while Richie Sexson is an expensive alternative, it could be one for the Yankees.

  The Mariners have let teams know they are looking to move Sexson and third baseman Adrian Beltre in order to reduce payroll. It’s believed the Mariners are clearing money in order to go after free agent Barry Zito.

Depending on the price, Sexson would be a decent fit. He’d bring a power righty bat, although historically he doesn’t show much of a career platoon split (.263/.369/.513 vs. L, .271/.344/.530). He’s also not a very good defender, particularly of late.

A weighted average projection for 2007 would put him at a -6, which isn’t very good, but he makes up for that pretty well with his bat. Overall he’d probably be about two wins better than someone like Craig Wilson in 2007. He won’t be cheap to acquire though. I’d guess Melky Cabrera and more would have to be part of a package.

The Yankees have been fairly quiet in the winter meetings, although they’re still rumored to be meeting with the agents for Andy Pettitte and Ted Lilly.

--Posted at 6:52 am by SG / No Comments | No Trackbacks - (178)

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