Saturday, January 5, 2008
Those That Missed The Cut Pt. 1
The following is a brief rundown on the prospects THAT did not make my Top 25. Questions, comments, and criticism are welcome. I’m going to attempt to have the Top 25 done by the time ST rolls around, but…no guarantees. The following list isn’t in any specific order. Ages listed are “baseball ages” for the 2008 season.
Eric Duncan, 1B, 23 In Duncan’s time in the Yankee minor league system I have ranked him as the 3rd (‘04), 1st (‘05), 2nd (‘06), and 10th (‘07) best prospect in the organization. While Duncan’s high initial rankings were due in part to the Yankee system being terrible, I think that knowing what I know now, I would not have ranked him as high. 2007 was the same old story for Eric. He drew a good amount of walks and didn’t strike out too much, but an inability to hit for average killed his overall numbers: .241/.323/.389. I’m at the point where I don’t believe Duncan will ever learn to do that and his power, on base skills, and defense aren’t strong enough to make him worthwhile unless he can his average up a lot. The Yankees seem to have soured on Eric as well, leaving him unprotected for the Rule V draft, where no one picked him up. It can no longer be said that “Duncan is so young, players his age are normally in [insert favorable minor league level here]” and being what he is, a “slugger” who has trouble providing offensive value due to an inability to turn quality ABs into quality outcomes, I could not leave him in my top 25.
Chris Garcia, RHP, 22 If he can somehow get healthy and stay that way, Garcia has the ability to make me look stupid for leaving him off. However, having missed time due to TJ surgery and then a knee injury while rehabbing, which followed a ‘06 where he also struggled with injuries…I’m beginning to think Garcia just won’t stay healthy enough for long enough to show why some talent evaluators felt he had more ability than Phil Hughes.
J.B. Cox, RHP, 24 Cox could also make me look foolish, but in my defense, he was one of the last guys cut. I’m confident that he will be back to some level of “normal” this year, but a guy coming off an injury whose projected future ML role is 7th inning guy didn’t strike me as someone I wanted in the top 25.
Tim Norton, RHP, 25 This one really hurts. Norton had filthy stuff. Great low to mid 90s fastball and developing splitter. While the Yankees were using him as a starter, he seemed destined for the bullpen as a shutdown reliever. Unfortunately, 5 starts into his ‘07 he had to undergo shoulder surgery, which is not something I tend to be forgiving with.
Brett Gardner, OF, 24 I think this is the one I’m going to get the most hate for, but…I just don’t see it. I’ve gone over his stat lines numerous times, I’ve seen him play, and I just don’t get the Brett Gardner love. Last year I said he could be “the player that everyone thinks Scott Podsednik is” in ranking him 16th and now I think he might just be the real Scott Podsednik. He is not Jacoby Ellsbury. Brett MAY be just as fast and while they may provide equivalent baserunning value, that’s about the only area where they are comparable. Instead of making him a standout defender, Brett’s speed helps him to be a good one due to his making his share of poor reads on the ball. In addition, at the plate, while Jacoby is never going to hit for much power, he has far more than Brett and that is going to help Jacoby’s skills translate to the major league level. Brett walks a good amount now, but major league pitchers are going to knock the bat out of his hands rather than walk him. He also strikes out way more than a player of his skill set should, but has made progress in that regard. Overall, Brett Gardner is REALLY fast and may one day use that to turn into a 5th OF or something, but that’s not enough.
Steven Jackson, RHP, 26 Jackson is a sinkerballer who gets his share of groundballs, but makes far too many mistakes, leading to an elevated home run rate. Outside of his sinker, 88-92, Jackson didn’t demonstrate much in the way of secondary pitches. He’s looking like a one pitch guy, which eliminates him from being a starter long term, and his one pitch isn’t dominant enough to make him a great reliever, at this point.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, 25 I really like Alberto Gonzalez. It was really tough for me cut a guy from the top 25 who I believe is a really good defender with a developing bat. For the Yankees he could be one of the league’s best backup infielders and on another club he may be a league average SS. I believe that whatever the Yankees did to Gonzalez when he was demoted to AA, it worked because he has been a very different player since then, making a huge cut in his K rate while upping his walk rate. This lasted through his AA time, his return to AAA, and is now carrying over in the winter leagues. Of course, if that improvement isn’t real he’s just a good glove who can’t hit and that’s not worth much.
Steven White, RHP, 27 White has a good fastball, in the low 90s, but it’s not a great fastball. He has decent, if inconsistent, secondary pitches. His control isn’t great. I think he could be Luis Vizcaino, a serviceable reliever, but not much else. He has no long term future starting.
Colin Curtis, OF, 23 Curtis looks like Brett Gardner without the speed. I wanted to believe there was more there last year, but it seems the scouts were correct in writing him off as a ‘tweener. He has time to change this evaluation, but it’s always scary when a guy who lacks power is promoted and proceeds to see good offensive numbers turn into terrible ones due to an increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks.
Chase Wright, LHP, 25 Wright has an average fastball and slightly above average change, but his control and command of all his non-change pitches leaves a lot to be desired. As a result, he is consistently behind in the count and this leads to predictable pitching sequences, which could one day lead to him doing something historic, like giving up a lot of homers in a row or something. The lack of command and control also makes Wright a less than ideal candidate for a bullpen role, so he doesn’t seem to have much of a big league future unless he can learn to command his very average stuff.
Kevin Whelan, RHP, 24 Thanks to a pretty good fastball and splitter combo, Whelan will always have supporters. Unfortunately, his control left him too frequently last year for him to put up the numbers he could/should have. I do wonder how his numbers would have looked if he were limited to just 1 innings more frequently. He’s a guy that I wouldn’t be surprised to see jump back on to the 25 next year.
*To Be Continued*
Thursday, November 29, 2007
North Jersey.com - Caldera: Duncan feels unprotected
Until now, Eric Duncan has lived the ultimate boyhood dream of any Yankees fan.
He was a first-round draft pick by his favorite team out of Seton Hall Prep, and a non-roster invitee to big league camp the past two springs – moving easily about a clubhouse full of pinstriped stars.
The next logical step was a place on the 40-man roster, but that’s where the dream hit a bump.
Left unprotected by the Yankees, Duncan will be exposed to next week’s Rule 5 draft, when he can be claimed by any of the other 29 clubs. But as the day approaches, Duncan has dealt with mixed feelings with a dose of realism.
I don’t think anyone would take Duncan, because I don’t think he can hit and he seems to have no defensive value.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Tyler Clippard Day
Injuries/News:
Since my last post, Marcos Vechionacci has returned from his lengthy stay on the disabled list. This leaves Tim Norton and George Kontos as the remaining DL casualties of unknown injury timetable.
The big news for today is that Tyler Clippard will be making his major league debut. I’ve been a huge fan of Clippard since he was drafted in the 9th round of the 2003 First Year Player Draft and as a result I am incredibly excited to see him reach the big stage. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Clippard’s start tonight will be the biggest start in the history of Major League Baseball, ever. The first reason why is that the Yankees are currently playing terrible baseball and have dug themselves an almost insurmountable hole in the division. If they want any chance at making the playoffs, the charge needs to begin now. The second reason is that Tyler Clippard has been one of the most controversial prospects in recent memory. He’s always put up eye catching stats, but scouts have been slow to warm to him. Despite scouts’ concerns about Clippard, he has, in my uneducated opinion, a good repertoire. He throws a fastball regularly clocked at 89-91 MPH, touching 92, a change-up at about 80 and a curveball around 75. Clippard’s change-up is his best pitch, his curve his second best, and his fastball a third offering. In the past Tyler has struggled with keeping the ball down, but has done a pretty good job of that this year. I’m cautiously optimistic about his chances.
AAA:
Due to injuries, both at the major league and minor league level, the AAA pitching rotation has become very uninteresting outside of Steve Jackson and Chase Wright. Even focusing on those two, the rotation isn’t that interesting. Jackson was knocked around in his last outing, with a line of 5.2-10-6-6-2-3-0 (IP-H-R-ER-BB-K-HR). Jackson’s ERA is now up to 5.53 and he has just had an extremely uninspiring year. Jackson is looking more and more like Ramiro Mendoza Red Sox edition and less like Ramiro Mendoza Yankee edition. This is not a good thing.
Chase Wright’s start today was uninspiring in the sense that he is just continuing to get lucky rather than actually pitch well. With a final line of 7.2-6-3-2-3-2-0, Wright now has a AAA ERA of 2.93 despite an 8:13 K:BB ratio in 27.2 innings. Given Rasner’s injury, if Clippard does poorly today, Wright may be back in the bigs.
Alberto Gonzalez is 4 for his last 15 with a double, 3 walks, and a strikeout. The 3 walks in the stretch are half of his total for the year, which really hurts when you have a .235 AVG. Eric Duncan was 4 for 16 with a double, 3 walks, and a strikeout. One strange thing about Duncan’s performance this year, other than the extremely low BABIP, is that he has really struggled against LHP. Despite being a LHB, Eric has actually hit LHP better than he’s hit RHP over the last two years. Hopefully this means he’s going to begin hitting lefties again and get his AVG out of the low .200s.
AA:
With the AAA rotation starting to feel the crunch of constant roster movement, the AA guys continued to shine and wait for their chance. Brett Smith, Jeff Marquez, and Alan Horne put up a combined line of 20-11-6-6-6-16-1 during the past week. Based on his peripherals, Marquez isn’t quite where he needs to be yet, but the reports from those who’ve seen him have been glowing, so I’m not going to worry much, if at all, but I will acknowledge that his ERA is due for some correction. Smith has been a beast with run prevention and Alan Horne has put up phenomenal peripherals. Overall, the pitching at the major league level has been righting itself as of late, and the minor league prospects are serving notice that the club should not have to worry about pitching in the future.
A+:
Ian Kennedy, Daniel McCutchen, and Joba Chamberlain continued to perform as the FSL version of the Smith, Marquez, and Horne. The combined line of the advanced A trio was 18.2-14-5-5-4-23. Kennedy has done a terrific job overall, but I am a bit worried by his walk total, 18 in 44 innings. When these guys are promoted may depend on some of the people behind them. I would like to see the Trenton Three go to AAA, and the Tampa Three to AA as soon as possible. The only problem is that other than Michael Dunn, there are really no easy choices to step into the Tampa rotation.
Reegie Corona is 4 for his last 19 with 1 double, 1 homer, 4 walks, 3 strikeouts, and 3 steals. I wasn’t a big believer in Corona prior to this season, but the way he’s been playing this year as well as the way he looked in the Clemens game has me reconsidering my evaluation. Corona seems to have a live body with room for growth, a solid sense of the strike zone, good range, and a solid arm. He might not be a star, but looks to be a good player nonetheless. He just has to get more under control in the field and not rush the game too much. With Robinson Cano’s nightmare season, middle infield prospects in the Yankee organization are becoming important once again.
Jose Tabata is 6 for his last 22 with 1 walk and 3 strikeouts in that stretch. There was a point this off-season when I was considering placing Tabata ahead of Hughes on my prospect ranking. It was partially to be controversial and partially because I didn’t feel there was much difference between the two as prospects. However, I decided against it because doing it just to be controversial would have been stupid and because I couldn’t get over my fears about his history of hand injuries and his weight. Spring training came and it seemed all was well. Tabata looked to be in better shape than he was last year and he was driving the ball, but a month and a half into the season and Tabata is having trouble driving the ball, expected in the FSL, and is very much out of shape, not as expected. I scoffed at the initial Baseball America reports of Tabata being 220 pounds, but now I’m not sure. Making matters worse, Tabata seems to be loafing, both at the plate and in the field. While I hope Tabata can work his way back into shape, he has established himself as a guy who struggles to keep his weight under control and that is going to be a huge mark against his prospect status.
Juan Miranda is 3 for his last 16 with a home run, a walk, and 4 strikeouts. Miranda’s performance has been highly uninspiring, but he stood out in the Clemens game as an impressive physical specimen. He has monstrous forearms and despite being at least 24 years old, looks like he has room on his frame to get even bigger. I’m not sure he’s going to hit much, but he could probably sell a few jeans.
Colin Curtis was 2 for 10 with a walk and 2 strikeouts. Curtis is really struggling at the moment, which is something a guy with questionable tools can’t afford to do, as he will be buried quickly. Colin didn’t leave much of a lasting impression in the Clemens game as he seemed to be your run of the mill scrappy player.
Francisco Cervelli was 3 for 11 with a double, a homer, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts. My concern when I saw Cervelli play last year was his discipline or lack thereof. This season his statistics have shown him to be a much more disciplined hitter and he looked the part as well. I’ve been straddling the fence a bit on him, but right now I’m a big Cervelli backer. He is probably a Top 3 position prospect in the system at the moment. Hopefully he finishes the year as strong as he started it and Posada does the same, so that we can then begin planning the Posada to Cervelli transfer.
After a month off with injury, Marcos Vechionacci returned to the lineup to go 0 for 7 with a walk. Vechionacci’s eye didn’t suffer any from the layoff, but his timing did as he is not squaring up with the ball when he swings. This is a critical year in Marcos’ development as I, and many others, have been waiting on him for some time now. He needs to get things going, which he seemed to be doing prior to his DL stint. Luckily for him, he’s only had 42 at bats, so even if things don’t go smooth immediately, he will have ample time to make his numbers look nice.
A-:
Michael Dunn and Ivan Nova both had good outings this past week. Dunn posted a 6.2-4-0-0-1-3-0 night and Nova had a 7-5-1-1-0-4-0 night. Both guys had rough outings last time out, so it was nice to see them bounce back. If Reyes can get his issues with the strike zone in control, the Yankees may have another pitching trio on their hands.
Mitch Hilligoss is now the proud owner of a 26 game hit streak. Over the last 5, Hilly was 7 for 20 with 2 walks, 6 strikeouts, and a steal. Hilly’s season line now stands at .323/.367/.406 (AVG/OBP/SLG). That isn’t too impressive and is a concern about his overall future effectiveness, but his flashy AVG and extended hit streak is also evidence of why scouts think he’s such a great pure hitter. Hopefully he’s one of the great pure hitters who is able to eventually develop some power; otherwise, that tool/skill won’t do him much good.
Austin Jackson is 6 for his last 19 with 3 doubles, a walk, 5 strikeouts, and 2 steals. The production has been solid, but the strikeout total is beginning to creep up again and more than anything else, that is what he needs to keep under control. Eduardo Nunez went 5 for his last 15 with 4 walks, 2 strikeouts, and 2 steals in 3 attempts. Despite only having 3 extra base hits through 39 games, I’ve been impressed with the way Eduardo has played. If he can continue to raise his average and pick up his walks, I’m comfortable, for now, with the lack of power.
Spotlight On:
Tyler Clippard going in the majors and Jeff Marquez going for Trenton. It should be an exciting day/night.
Housekeeping:
I just finished Finals this past week, I have LSATs on June 11th, and I begin work for the Yankees on Monday. If my posting slows, you know why.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Another Of Those Days
4.12.07 Review:
Phil Hughes had a game similar to Tyler Clippard’s last one. His stuff wasn’t as crisp as could be, but the primary issue was his control and command. Hughes would consistently just miss outside of the zone or within the zone and as a result he struggled to put batters away. In another similarity to Clippard’s start, Hughes was able to keep the ball low in the zone and generate groundballs. Unfortunately, as is often the case when there’s a combination of groundballs and no strikeouts, hits would fall in or bad hops would occur. Overall, I wouldn’t worry much about Hughes’ start, just like I wouldn’t worry about Clippard’s last one. These types of starts happen from time to time and aren’t reason to condemn a player. When a player falls apart and everything is out of the strike zone or everything is being hit hard, I worry. When guys are missing by a bit and serve up the occasional meatball to get over, I don’t worry. It also doesn’t hurt if those guys have great track records.
Eric Duncan built on the previous night’s game as he went 1 for 2 with a single and a walk. The single was a line drive groundball up the middle and he just looked very comfortable at the plate. Other than the night where he struck 3 times, Duncan has looked good thus far.
Around The Minors:
Trenton was rained out and will made up as a doubleheader.
At Tampa, Jose Tabata seems to be taking Bobby Abreu’s spring advice about being patient to heart as he was 2 for 3 with 2 singles, 2 walks, and 1 strikeout. His strikeout is higher than ideal at the moment, but it’s early and everything else is great, so I’m not worried.
Juan Miranda seems to be finding his power stroke; he went 1 for 2 with a double, a walk, and a strikeout.
Finally, Francisco Cervelli continued to hit well, going 1 for 3 with a double and a walk.
On the mound, George Kontos struggled a bit. Judging by the box score, Kontos just got tired as most of the damage against him was done late.
Finally, in Charleston, Jose Gil was 1 for 2 with a single and Wilmer Pino continued his hot start by going 2 for 4 with 2 singles. Pino’s start probably reminds some of Reegie Corona’s from last year, but I like Pino’s tools a bit more so I’m more excited by what he is doing than I was by Corona. Austin Jackson also had 2 hits, but struck out twice, so I would chalk that up as a negative night.
Spotlight On:
Scranton. The guy on first and the guy on the mound might help out soon. Who knows?
Sunday, April 8, 2007
Ohlie Cow
4.7.07 Review:
Ross Ohlendorf made his first start of the year for AAA Scranton and wasn’t that great. Typically allergic to walks, Ohlendorf had no such luck on this day. It wasn’t so much that he was wild with his pitches and couldn’t find the zone as it was that he was just missing off the edges. In addition, the opposition was able to place their hits in the right place and the result was a less than pleasant final line. While watching Ohlendorf, I couldn’t help, but think that he just does not impress me that much. His fastball velocity is good, getting up to 94 MPH, he keeps the ball down, and he typically has excellent control. That might seem like enough, but I’m concerned with the movement or lack thereof on his pitches. Even his sinker did not seem to have great sinking motion as it was that he was simply keeping the ball down. I might be wrong, but I’ll try to keep an eye on this. Finally, for what it’s worth, he does seem to have quite the physical presence on the mound.
Eric Duncan had a third straight positive game. Once again, he did a good job on defense and at the plate. The key moment for him, offensively, was during the 6th inning when he blasted a home run to right center field to give Scranton their winning margin. He also drew a walk on the day as he consistently had patient, quality at bats. One thing that has stuck out about Duncan is that he seems to love the ball low and middle of the plate to low and out.
Alberto Gonzalez…to be honest, I didn’t even realize he played, so I don’t have much to say regarding his performance.
Around The Minors:
Alan Horne began his season in solid fashion. Judging by the box score, he might have tired down the stretch, but it was a fine start for Horne and the guys such as Mike from River Ave Blues and Bryan Smith, who believe that Horne could be headed for big things.
Brett Gardner was 2 for 5 with his first extra base hit, a triple, first stolen base, and first strikeout of the season. I’m hoping he does lots of two of those things. For a guy with all the speed Gardner has, you’d like to see him exceed his 2006 total of 24 combined doubles and triples.
George Kontos made his full season debut for Tampa yesterday and went 6 solid innings. He would give up 2 runs on 1 homer, 6 overall hits, while striking out 5 and walking 1. I expect a lot out of serious pitching prospects in the Florida State League, so this start was just ok to me.
Jose Tabata managed to have another terrific day. The 18-year-old phenom was 2 for 3 with an opposite field home run as well as a walk and a strikeout. Oh yeah, he also picked up his second steal of the season. Given his age and his environment, I was expecting something along the lines of .300/.365/.425 from Tabata. It’s early, but I might have to raise my expectations and I’m not upset about that.
The guy most likely to be affected by when/if Tabata is promoted to Trenton, Austin Jackson, had a good day at the plate as well. Jackson was 2 for 3 with a walk and his first stolen base of the season. Jackson seems to think that a lot of his struggles last year were due to the fatigue of playing baseball full-time for the first time. I believe him and hopefully his performance validates that belief.
Finally, Wilmer Pino was 1 for 3 with a double and a steal. I saw Pino last season at Staten Island, and was impressed by him. He’s a hacker, but seems to have a solid set of tools and I’m rooting for him.
Spotlight On:
Eric Duncan’s bat and Matt DeSalvo’s comeback. Scranton it is.
Saturday, April 7, 2007
Hughes’ AAA Debut
4.6.07 Review:
Phil Hughes made his AAA debut last night and did so in impressive fashion. He worked in the low 90s with his fastball and spotted it to the corners and was able to go to his curveball for swings and misses as well. While Nardi Contreras was recently quoted as saying he’s impressed with how much Hughes’ changeup has advanced this past spring, I wasn’t able to confirm or deny that because Hughes didn’t go to the pitch that much. He might have just been trying to keep it simple for his AAA debut. Another thing I picked up on Hughes was that he seemed focus to get the out at 2nd whenever the ball was tapped back to him and there was a runner on first. For the most part, this strategy worked out last night, but I’m not sure how great of a tendency this is. After all, the last thing we need is to endanger The Hitting Machine™.
Also impressing in the Scranton game was Eric Duncan. Duncan was only 1 for 4 in the box score, but the 1 was an impressive home run to right-center field. In addition, in the at bat prior to the homer, Duncan hit a long fly ball to left-center field. Every at bat was a quality one and Duncan is looking good thus far in 2007. I was once again pleased with his defensive play.
Alberto Gonzalez had another nondescript afternoon with the most noteworthy moment being the 4 pitch walk he drew in his first plate appearance. The odds of this happening again are probably not great. His two hits were also of the right place at the right time variety as he hit one off of the 2B, which was a play that could have been made, and the other was a tapper.
Around The Minors:
Elsewhere in the minors, Jeff Marquez started his season off with 5 no-hit innings before finally giving in in the 6th. I was very encouraged by the start for Marquez as I have him rated higher than everyone else and as long as he keeps his walks in check, I feel confident he’ll make me look good.
Ian Kennedy made short work of the competition in Tampa, striking out 8 in 5 innings and really, he should not be long for Tampa. I expect him to consistently put up big strikeout totals in the FSL until the Yankees promote him. Most noteworthy, for me at least, will be his GB:FB ratio. He’s supposedly been working on a 2-seamer.
Jose Tabata continues to dominate in the early going as he was 3 for 4 with a triple and a strikeout. It’s early, but Tabata looks like he wants to make good on his goal of reaching Trenton and proving, by the end of the year, that he can hit big league pitching.
Austin Jackson showed off his newfound power in Charleston last night going 2 for 4 with a double and a home run. The double was to center and the home run was to left-center.
Spotlight On:
You could go with Scranton, where Ross Ohlendorf is making his system debut. At the same time, you could go with Tampa where Joba should be making his full-season debut. The choice is yours. I’m more interested in Joba, I think.
Friday, April 6, 2007
Clippard’s AAA Debut
Opening Night Review:
Tyler Clippard was solid in his AAA debut last night. He had a little trouble locating the fastball, but could go to the curve and the change for outs whenever he got into a jam. While his fastball isn’t particularly fast, he does seem to get a good deal of movement on it. Some of that is unintended as it sails on him from time to time. His command of his secondary pitches appears to be superior to his fastball command, which could explain some of the “Clippard pitches backwards” stuff that’s heard from time to time.
Eric Duncan looked ok at the plate. He had a couple of poor appearances against a good pitcher, Hayden Penn, but also knocked a looooong opposite field double off the wall. Defensively, he looked much improved from when I saw him last year. His actions around the bag appeared smoother and more confident, which was my primary point of concern with his defensive game.
Alberto Gonzalez was up hacking and did not last long enough in any of his Abs to take note of anything other than the fact that he likes to swing. In the field he didn’t do anything noteworthy.
Around The Minors:
-Chase Wright pitched a phenomenal game for Trenton. He went 7 and struck out 9 while giving up 3 hits and 0 walks. Wright was pretty impressive in spring training, despite some control problems. He’s fairly old to be considered a big time prospect, but he might be Ron Villone, we’ll see.
-Jose Tabata started his season off right by singling and immediately stealing a base.
-Tim Norton also got started correctly by tossing 5 innings of 1 hit shutout baseball. He also took the time to strike out 5 while just walking 1. Despite concerns about his secondary pitches, I doubt Norton will be long for Charleston.
Spotlight On:
-Scranton is once again the affiliate to watch as Phil Hughes makes his 2007 debut.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
What To Watch in 2007 (Minor Leagues)
Minor league opening day, the real opening day, is finally upon us. After much pomp and circumstance about the improvement in the quality of the Yankee farm system, it’s finally time to see who is going to back up their winter press clippings with impressive performances. With that in mind, here are a few players to watch/listen to internet audio/keep track of in box scores:
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Scranton
Clippard has succeeded at every level thus far in his minor league career, but because he does not throw particularly hard, he still has his share of doubters. He will be taking the mound for Scranton today as he attempts to pass his final minor league test. I am a big fan of Clippard and expect him to do what he has done at every other level: ERA in the low to mid 3s, eat innings, and strike out lots of guys.
Eric Duncan, 1B, Scranton
The Yankees have decided to start Duncan off at Scranton. No doubt, they feel that the hitting he did for the first 180 or so plate appearances in AA last year represent the real Duncan. If he can stay away from any recurring back problems, I expect Duncan to surprise a lot of people and put himself in line for a shot at the 1B job come next spring. Strikeouts have not been a problem for him for some time now and it is just a matter of knowing that his back is healthy so that he can drive the ball when he does connect.
Alberto Gonzalez, SS, Scranton
With the A-Rod saga developing to the point where it is not set in stone that he will be a member of the 2008 Yankees, Gonzalez goes from future super utility player to potential infield regular. There is a weak 3B market coming up and if A-Rod bolts, the Yankees might look within. If they do, the quality of the season Gonzalez has will play a large role in deciding how confidently the Yankees go in that direction.
Brett Gardner, CF, Trenton
Gardner can run really, really, really fast. He also knows how to take a walk. Those two skills will not mean much if he fails to hit with enough power to stop pitchers from attempting to knock the bat out of his hands. He already strikes out a lot for someone of the speedy leadoff man ilk, so it will be interesting to watch whether the strikeouts increase as he tries to hit for at least gap power. I doubt he is going to show much power and will probably have to settle for being rated as a future 4th OF/defensive replacement, but I hope he does better.
Marcos Vechionacci, 3B, Tampa
Marcos has impressed everyone with his defensive performance for some time now, but it is time for the bat to start catching up. He is another guy whose season becomes just a little bit more crucial with A-Rod’s status as a Yankee up in the air. I’ve always been a big Vechionacci supporter and given that he looked stronger in spring training I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt and expect a year that has him ending in Trenton.
Ian Kennedy, RHP, Tampa
Kennedy is basically Clippard with a smaller build. Much like Clippard, he’s going to have to prove himself every step of the way. Tampa is step 1.
Jose Gil, C, Charleston
I love Gil’s swing. I love his sense of the strike-zone. I think he’s got defensive potential. This year he’s going to cease switch-hitting and just stick to being a righty batter, hopefully he begins to live up to my expectations.
The overall team to track this year is Tampa as it will have the most prospects. Scranton should also be good for keeping track of the potential rotation injury replacements. Finally, for those that were not aware, Dellin Betances and Zach McAllister did not make the opening day Charleston roster. I’m not sure why, but I would speculate that it was due to refinements being made to their motion (Betances) or pitches (McAllister).
And finally, if you’re into prospects, I highly recommend going to minorleaguebaseball.com and subscribing to MiLB.tv and enjoy watching the outstanding Scranton rotation so that when one of them makes it to the bigs, you can tell your friends all about what to expect.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
#10: Eric Duncan
Eric Duncan, 1B, 22
Previously Ranked: 2nd prior to 2006, 1st prior to 2005, 3rd prior to 2004
What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 7th, Baseball America N/A, John Sickels 22nd (C)
Physical Ability: Eric Duncan is a 1B listed at 6’3’’ and 195 pounds (Personally, I think he’s about an inch or two shorter and 10 pounds heavier). 2006 was the first year in which Duncan was a full-time 1B as he had previously been across the diamond, and it showed. His arm plays a bit above average for the position, as would be expected, but he needs to smooth out his actions around the bag. Duncan’s defensive actions could also improve in terms of conviction, but that will likely come with time. Offensively, Duncan has a short and powerful stroke. He typically keeps the ball in the air, which is going to keep his batting average below it’s expected levels due to increased pop ups when he’s going wrong, as well as fly balls turning into hits less than ground balls. However, when he’s right and hits the ball on the screws, Duncan has very impressive power. He still has a chance to be a 30-homer man in the majors.
What Happened in ’06: 2005 was a trying year for Duncan. He struggled for most of his stint at AA Trenton, as he was overmatched by more advanced pitchers, and was not able to contribute to the Trenton playoff push due to being hit in the head by a pitch. He was then sent to the Arizona Fall League where he raked. For some this was reason enough to believe that he was fixed, for others it was not, I was a non-believer. However, when Duncan raked again in Spring Training 2006 and the news came out that the Yankees had tinkered with his spring during the 2005 regular season, I became cautiously optimistic. Duncan then made that optimism look silly as he struggled to keep his average above .200 in AAA. However, there were mitigating factors at work. For one, last year’s International League was a tough hitting environment. Secondly, Duncan was hit unlucky in both the “look at his peripherals” and “watch the games” ways. And finally, and most importantly, Duncan was struggling with some back issues. The Yankees finally placed him on the disabled list and once he was healthy they demoted him to AA Trenton. Upon his return to Trenton, Duncan began to rake, until…he succumbed to further back troubles. Eric would return yet again, but not regain his full effectiveness and during his second stint in the Arizona Fall League he struggled offensively.
What Lies Ahead: In 2007, Eric Duncan will essentially be playing for his career. The prospect light has steadily dimmed for him, in the eyes of most, and if he does not turn in an impressive year, he may be relegated to “potential bench player” status. For my part, I think it all rests on his health. Unlike most left-handed hitters, Duncan has no troubles with left-handers and usually hits them better than he does righties. In addition, the strikeouts are no longer a problem as he has found the balance between patience and discipline while learning to better pick up breaking balls. Finally, all of Duncan’s offensive troubles in 2006 can be directly attributed to either back issues or fluky ball in play trends. All this is to say that I’m confident Duncan will hit…if his body allows him to. Given his past handling, I would expect the Yankees to place him in AAA. Whether he starts there or AA, he can make himself an option at the major league level with a good year.
Grade: Eric Duncan’s pro career has been disappointing to this point. However, I feel that given health, positive things lie ahead. With Giambi nearing the conclusion of his contract, Doug M. only signed for 1 year and no other legitimate 1B candidates ahead of him, the time for Duncan to make his move is now. C+
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Kind of, Sort of, Flashback
So…I was thinking about which Yankee minor leaguers I would give year end awards to when I realized that while I had done this for the Minor Yankee Blog at the end of ’04, I forgot to do it in ’05. The awards ranged from placement on the Yankee Prospect All Star Team to Breakout Prospect, Comeback Prospect, Hitting Prospect, and Pitching Prospect of the Year awards. So, I’m going to do give the ’05 awards out now and I won’t take ’06 into account. The winners are based purely on a combination of prospect status as of ’05 weighted against performance (you’ll have to trust that I’m being honest). There are minimums of 60 IP and/or 180 PA. Players are listed with their baseball age for the 2005 season, level, and then AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters and ERA/K9/BB9/H9/HR9 for pitchers. Without further ado:
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2005 Yankee Prospect All Star Team:
C: Irwil Rojas, 20, A- .281/.345/.336
1B: Eric Duncan, 20, AA .235/.326/.408
2B: Justin Christian, 25, A-/A+/AAA .303/.376/.466
3B: Marcos Vechionacci, 18, A- .252/.314/.348
SS: Eduardo Nunez, 18, SS .313/.365/.427
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OF: Tim Battle, 19, A-
.259/.335/.455
OF: Brett Gardner, 21, SS .284/.377/.376
OF: Melky Cabrera, 20, AA/AAA .269/.319/.402
LH: Matt Smith, 26, AA/AAA 2.73/10.1/3.9/7.7/0.5
RH: Tyler Clippard, 20, A-/A+/AAA 3.32/10.6/2.0/7.4/0.8
Breakout Prospect: Tyler Clippard
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Comeback Prospect: Tim BattleHitting Prospect: Tim Battle
Pitching Prospect: Tyler Clippard
Now…this list…is ugly, no bones about it. To some extent, when you think about the playing time constraints as well as the nature of the Yankee system, both then and now it is RHP dominated, this is to be expected. But still…this list is really ugly and much more of a tallest midget contest than anything else. To some, that makes it entirely irrelevant, but I like it as a way of getting an idea of where the system is weak. The ’06 list doesn’t look to be as depressing, but will have some dry spots as well. I’ll give a prize, but not really, to anyone who can correctly the name the winner of each of these positions for the ’06 team. Keep in mind; this list will be less ceiling (Baseball America) and more performance (Baseball Prospectus) than my eventual Top 25.
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On the subject of the year-end All Star team, it’s cool to look back and see that 40% of that original team has already had major league impact with Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, and Melky Cabrera looking like solid contributors while Robinson Cano has displayed star potential and, in some ways, may already BE a star.
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