Thursday, January 14, 2010
Javier Vazquez’s Pitch Selection, 2007 - 2009
I was thinking about the likeilhood of Javier Vazquez's 2009 being indicative of a possible change in approach that may mean he's more likely to sustain the gains made, so I pulled his Pitch FX data from 2007 through 2009 to see if it showed anything interesting. Keep in mind that Pitch FX data is not complete from 2007-2009.First, here's a look at his pitch selection, broken down by season and type.
| Type | 2007 | % | 2008 | % | 2009 | % |
| Four-seam fastball | 1368 | 59.0% | 1727 | 54.8% | 1502 | 47.1% |
| Change-up | 350 | 15.1% | 387 | 12.3% | 474 | 14.9% |
| Slider | 365 | 15.8% | 637 | 20.2% | 739 | 23.2% |
| Curveball | 234 | 10.1% | 398 | 12.6% | 472 | 14.8% |
| Total | 2317 | 3149 | 3187 |
This breakdown screams for pie charts, so here they are.
In 2009 Vazquez threw fewer fastballs, while increasing his slider and curveball usage according to these numbers.
This next table just looks at the wOBA against each of the pitches. This only applies when a pitch is the decisive pitch of a plate apearance.
| Type | 2007 | +/- | 2008 | +/- | 2009 | +/- |
| Four-seam fastball | .298 | .013 | .330 | .007 | .298 | .011 |
| Change-up | .295 | .010 | .323 | .001 | .240 | -.047 |
| Slider | .276 | -.008 | .338 | .016 | .295 | .008 |
| Curveball | .221 | -.063 | .274 | -.048 | .276 | -.011 |
| Total | .284 | .322 | .000 | .287 |
The +/- column is just the difference between the wOBA for the specific pitch compared to the overall wOBA hea llowed in that season. So we see in 2009, for example, that he his changeup was his most effective pitch. as batters had a wOBA of .240 against it, compared to his overall wOBA against of .287. A difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 650 PAs.
Lastly, here's a more detailed breakdown of his pitch selection.
| Type (2007) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Fastball | 1296 | 98.2 | 86.0 | 92.5 | 32.7% | 8.6% | 22.8% | 18.6% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 0.2% | 24.1 | 35.4 | 5.2 |
| Four-seam fastball | 72 | 97.0 | 90.1 | 93.4 | 37.5% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 19.4% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 23.6 | 54.0 | 4.8 |
| Change-up | 350 | 89.5 | 59.2 | 82.8 | 35.7% | 16.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 14.9% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 24.1 | 22.6 | 7.7 |
| Slider | 365 | 92.4 | 75.5 | 84.8 | 32.6% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 17.3% | 11.2% | 6.0% | 0.3% | 24.2 | -6.9 | 7.6 |
| Curveball | 234 | 82.1 | 65.7 | 75.7 | 38.5% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 21.4% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 24.0 | -13.1 | 12.9 |
| Total | 2317 | 98.2 | 59.2 | 85.8 | 33.9% | 11.0% | 18.5% | 17.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Type (2008) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Fastball | 1693 | 97.1 | 86.0 | 91.8 | 32.5% | 8.2% | 22.3% | 18.1% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 0.1% | 23.7 | 36.2 | 4.6 |
| Four-seam fastball | 34 | 95.4 | 89.0 | 92.6 | 35.3% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 8.8% | 23.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 23.6 | 53.1 | 5.0 |
| Change-up | 387 | 89.6 | 72.4 | 81.9 | 35.7% | 16.3% | 17.1% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 23.8 | 21.1 | 7.2 |
| Slider | 637 | 90.8 | 77.6 | 84.6 | 29.2% | 14.4% | 20.3% | 14.4% | 12.6% | 4.7% | 0.2% | 23.8 | -6.0 | 7.3 |
| Curveball | 398 | 84.6 | 63.5 | 74.0 | 33.7% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 23.8 | -13.4 | 13.1 |
| Total | 3149 | 97.1 | 63.5 | 85.0 | 32.4% | 10.6% | 20.3% | 16.7% | 11.7% | 4.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Type (2009) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Four-seam fastball | 1502 | 94.8 | 85.3 | 91.2 | 29.2% | 8.4% | 20.9% | 21.6% | 12.5% | 4.9% | 0.1% | 23.8 | 31.9 | 4.7 |
| Change-up | 474 | 88.1 | 70.8 | 80.2 | 38.0% | 21.5% | 12.9% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 23.8 | 20.2 | 7.5 |
| Slider | 739 | 89.7 | 68.9 | 83.1 | 30.7% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 19.6% | 12.3% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 23.9 | -8.2 | 7.9 |
| Curveball | 472 | 82.2 | 64.0 | 72.5 | 29.7% | 17.8% | 10.6% | 21.6% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 23.8 | -12.6 | 13.8 |
| Total | 3187 | 94.8 | 64.0 | 81.8 | 30.9% | 12.9% | 17.0% | 19.0% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
break_y: the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs(definition taken from this site
break_angle: the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively;
break_length: the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory.
Because of the league switch, I don't know how much I'd read into some of the peripheral improvements we see in his 2009 line.
Anyway, I'm not sure how much this tells us, but I figured it beats talking about signing Reed Johnson.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Re-assessing the 2010 Yankees as of December 23, 2009
Since I last assessed the Yankees for 2010, they’ve added Nick Johnson to DH and Javier Vazquez to slot into the rotation, so it’s probably a good time to use my CAIRO projections and re-assess them.
Here's how the lineup and bench looks now.| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 625 | .307/.371/.425 | 84 | 393 | 29 | -4 | 2.5 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 450 | .271/.412/.418 | 65 | 265 | 10 | 0 | 1.0 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1b | 670 | .280/.379/.529 | 111 | 416 | 34 | 3 | 3.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 605 | .282/.389/.546 | 105 | 370 | 44 | -4 | 4.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 625 | .257/.338/.462 | 87 | 414 | 26 | 5 | 3.1 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 425 | .266/.352/.455 | 58 | 276 | 21 | -5 | 1.6 |
| Robinson Cano | 2b | 625 | .311/.348/.494 | 90 | 407 | 30 | -1 | 3.0 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 550 | .235/.355/.444 | 74 | 355 | 16 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 500 | .262/.348/.351 | 59 | 326 | 7 | 2 | 0.9 |
| Starters Total | 5075 | .277/.365/.463 | 733 | 3221 | 217 | -2 | 21.5 | |
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Jamie Hoffmann | RF | 350 | .242/.317/.359 | 35 | 239 | -2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Juan Miranda | 1b | 300 | .247/.331/.427 | 37 | 201 | 3 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 250 | .251/.322/.357 | 24 | 170 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 225 | .240/.301/.316 | 19 | 157 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Reegie Corona | 2b | 167 | .246/.325/.335 | 17 | 113 | 1 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Bench Total | 1292 | .245/.319/.363 | 131 | 879 | 2 | 2 | 0.4 | |
| Player | PA | BR | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR | |
| Team Total | 6367 | 864 | .270/.356/.442 | 4100 | 219 | -1 | 21.9 |
BR: Absolute linear weights batting runs based on estimated playing time, not adjusted for position.
Outs: Outs made while batting. Team outs should add up to around 4100 over a full season.
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level at position.
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR pro-rated to projected playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS).
I've held the playing time for the holdover starters constant to my last post, but the addition of Johnson and the subsequent increased PAs for the entire team, as well as more playing time for TSBG over Melky leads to the Yankee position players projecting to score about 21 more runs (from 843 to 864) than the team as of December 16 without Johnson. The defense is essentially unchanged, going from -2 to -1.
On the pitching side, there are two scenarios right now. One has Joba Chamberlain as the fifth starter and Phil Hughes in the pen, and the other has the converse. For now I'll assume that whomever loses the rotation spot battle isn't going to get any starts, so extra starts will go to the 6-8 pitchers.
With Joba in the rotation, the pitching staff looks like this:
| Pitching | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 179 | 77 | 72 | 15 | 49 | 7 | 176 | 3.48 | 3.24 | 3.26 | 55 | 5.5 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 200 | 183 | 84 | 78 | 21 | 46 | 5 | 194 | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.37 | 49 | 4.9 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 175 | 161 | 84 | 78 | 18 | 72 | 8 | 169 | 4.30 | 4.02 | 3.95 | 33 | 3.3 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 184 | 89 | 80 | 16 | 59 | 4 | 131 | 4.59 | 4.12 | 3.94 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SP5 | 151 | 151 | 79 | 70 | 15 | 66 | 8 | 140 | 4.71 | 4.19 | 4.11 | 21 | 2.1 |
| Chad Gaudin | SP6 | 50 | 48 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 41 | 5.04 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP7 | 40 | 50 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 5.70 | 4.87 | 4.37 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP8 | 40 | 48 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 5.87 | 5.12 | 4.73 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Starter Total | 1031 | 1004 | 492 | 449 | 98 | 338 | 0 | 897 | 4.30 | 3.92 | 3.68 | 192 | 19.2 | |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 69 | 51 | 20 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 71 | 2.55 | 2.36 | 2.70 | 21 | 2.1 |
| Phil Hughes | SU | 70 | 62 | 30 | 29 | 6 | 24 | 3 | 69 | 3.92 | 3.67 | 3.54 | 10 | 1.0 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 48 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 49 | 4.54 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 4 | 0.4 |
| David Robertson | MR | 65 | 57 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 76 | 4.14 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 45 | 4.87 | 4.60 | 4.42 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Mark Melancon | MR | 50 | 53 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 35 | 5.27 | 4.72 | 4.42 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Edwar Ramirez | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Ivan Nova | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Reliever Total | 369 | 337 | 170 | 153 | 34 | 123 | 12 | 345 | 4.14 | 3.74 | 3.64 | 46 | 4.6 | |
| Pitching Total | 1400 | 1340 | 662 | 602 | 132 | 461 | 12 | 1242 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.67 | 238 | 23.8 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
Flipping Hughes and Chamberlain looks like this:
| Pitching | Role | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | K | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| CC Sabathia | SP1 | 200 | 179 | 77 | 72 | 15 | 49 | 7 | 176 | 3.48 | 3.24 | 3.26 | 55 | 5.5 |
| Javier Vazquez | SP2 | 200 | 183 | 84 | 78 | 21 | 46 | 5 | 194 | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.37 | 49 | 4.9 |
| A.J. Burnett | SP3 | 175 | 161 | 84 | 78 | 18 | 72 | 8 | 169 | 4.30 | 4.02 | 3.95 | 33 | 3.3 |
| Andy Pettitte | SP4 | 175 | 184 | 89 | 80 | 16 | 59 | 4 | 131 | 4.59 | 4.12 | 3.94 | 27 | 2.7 |
| Phil Hughes | SP5 | 151 | 147 | 82 | 77 | 14 | 58 | 7 | 126 | 4.89 | 4.59 | 4.06 | 22 | 2.2 |
| Chad Gaudin | SP6 | 50 | 48 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 41 | 5.04 | 4.64 | 4.30 | 5 | 0.5 |
| Sergio Mitre | SP7 | 40 | 50 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 24 | 5.70 | 4.87 | 4.37 | 1 | 0.1 |
| Zachary McAllister | SP8 | 40 | 48 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 21 | 5.87 | 5.12 | 4.73 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Starter Total | 1031 | 1001 | 495 | 456 | 97 | 330 | 0 | 883 | 4.32 | 3.98 | 3.68 | 193 | 19.3 | |
| Mariano Rivera | CL | 69 | 51 | 20 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 71 | 2.55 | 2.36 | 2.70 | 21 | 2.1 |
| Joba Chamberlain | SU | 70 | 63 | 29 | 26 | 6 | 27 | 4 | 77 | 3.77 | 3.35 | 3.51 | 10 | 1.0 |
| Damaso Marte | SU | 50 | 48 | 25 | 21 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 49 | 4.54 | 3.81 | 3.76 | 4 | 0.4 |
| David Robertson | MR | 65 | 57 | 30 | 26 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 76 | 4.14 | 3.60 | 3.25 | 8 | 0.8 |
| Alfredo Aceves | MR | 65 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 45 | 4.87 | 4.60 | 4.42 | 3 | 0.3 |
| Mark Melancon | MR | 50 | 53 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 35 | 5.27 | 4.72 | 4.42 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Edwar Ramirez | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Kei Igawa | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Ivan Nova | LR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Reliever Total | 369 | 338 | 168 | 151 | 35 | 126 | 12 | 353 | 4.11 | 3.68 | 3.63 | 45 | 4.5 | |
| Pitching Total | 1400 | 1339 | 664 | 606 | 132 | 456 | 12 | 1236 | 4.27 | 3.90 | 3.66 | 239 | 23.9 |
Although Joba will be without innings limits this year, I restricted him to 151 to allow for a direct comparison with Hughes, who I believe will have an innings limit, although I'm guessing at the 151.
There is one key point about the pitching projections. Projection systems don't understand that player skill/talent is static and never changes. They incorrectly assume that a weighted average of the most recent seasons adjusted for context such as league, park and defense combined with regression towards the mean and adjusting for aging tells us more about a player than what that player may have done five or six years ago for a team. So even though Javier Vazquez projects to put up a nice 3.52 ERA, we know for a fact that he is going to have a 4.91 ERA in 2010 because that's what he did in 2004 for the same exact Yankee team in the same exact stadium against the same exact opposition he faced back then with the same exact pitching coach and the same exact defense behind him.
Anyway, I went a little conservative on the IP by the starters to account for the fact that expecting your entire rotation to stay healthy all season is not particularly realistic. In the Hughes rotation/Joba bullpen scenario, the Yankees' team would project to do this:
| Component | R | WAR |
| Offense | 864 | 21.9 |
| Defense | -1 | -0.1 |
| Starting Pitchers | 495 | 19.3 |
| Relief Pitchers | 168 | 4.5 |
| RS/RA | 864-663 | 45.8 |
| Pythagenpat wpct | .623 | |
| W-L | 101-61 |
And in the converse scenario, they'd project to do this:
| Component | R | WAR |
| Offense | 864 | 21.9 |
| Defense | -1 | -0.1 |
| Starting Pitchers | 492 | 19.2 |
| Relief Pitchers | 170 | 4.6 |
| RS/RA | 864-661 | 45.7 |
| Pythagenpat wpct | .625 | |
| W-L | 101-61 |
Last year's team projected to be about a 95 win team heading into the season, and although they won 103 games their Pythagenpat record was around 95-96 wins. So even though the Yankees have had a terrible offseason, they look like they're six wins better while costing no more than last year's team did. If they can find a league average LF they would pick up maybe one more win.
I'll sign up for terrible offseasons like this every year.
Update: Here's a more optimistic version of the position player depth chart:
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Derek Jeter | SS | 670 | .307/.371/.425 | 90 | 421 | 31 | -4 | 2.7 |
| Nick Johnson | DH | 560 | .271/.412/.418 | 81 | 329 | 13 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1b | 670 | .280/.379/.529 | 111 | 416 | 34 | 3 | 3.8 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3b | 605 | .282/.389/.546 | 105 | 370 | 44 | -4 | 4.0 |
| Curtis Granderson | CF | 670 | .257/.338/.462 | 93 | 444 | 28 | 6 | 3.4 |
| Jorge Posada | C | 475 | .266/.352/.455 | 65 | 308 | 23 | -5 | 1.8 |
| Robinson Cano | 2b | 650 | .311/.348/.494 | 93 | 424 | 31 | -1 | 3.1 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 620 | .235/.355/.444 | 84 | 400 | 18 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 525 | .262/.348/.351 | 62 | 342 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 |
| Starters Total | 5445 | .276/.366/.461 | 784 | 3454 | 230 | -2 | 22.8 | |
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | BR | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR |
| Jamie Hoffmann | RF | 300 | .242/.317/.359 | 30 | 205 | -2 | 2 | 0.0 |
| Juan Miranda | 1b | 200 | .247/.331/.427 | 25 | 134 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 250 | .251/.322/.357 | 24 | 170 | 2 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 100 | .240/.301/.316 | 8 | 70 | -1 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Reegie Corona | 2b | 100 | .246/.325/.335 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Bench Total | 950 | .245/.320/.365 | 97 | 646 | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | |
| Player | PA | BR | AVG/OBP/SLG | Outs | BRAR | RS | WAR | |
| Team Total | 6395 | 881 | .271/.359/.446 | 4100 | 232 | -1 | 23.1 |
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Are the Yankees trying to bring back Javier Vazquez?
That's what Joel Sherman's twittering or tweeting or twitting or whatever you kids call it.#Yankees working hard to re-acquire Javier Vazquez, I have learned, link to follow soon
Maybe they should sign Randy Choate and trade for Juan Rivera then trade Choate + Rivera + Nick Johnson for him?
Update(9:46 am): Jon Heyman's saying a deal has been reached.
SI_JonHeyman
1. vazquez will be a pretty darned good 4th starter for #yankees. good job by cashman. melky is easily replaceable. 8 minutes ago from web
2. #yankees, #braves deal will send vazquez, boone logan to ny for melky, lhp mike dunn and a prospect. si.com story up soon 11 minutes ago from web
Uhm, Vazquez should be the #2 starter.
Update(9:52 am): Here's how Vazquez would project as a Yankee in 2010.
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 19 | 7 | 232 | 197 | 79 | 73 | 21 | 46 | 241 | 3.06 | 2.85 | 2.94 | 74.6 | 7.5 |
| 65% | 17 | 8 | 222 | 195 | 83 | 78 | 23 | 47 | 223 | 3.39 | 3.17 | 3.22 | 62.9 | 6.3 |
| Baseline | 15 | 8 | 211 | 193 | 88 | 83 | 24 | 49 | 205 | 3.76 | 3.52 | 3.49 | 51.3 | 5.1 |
| 35% | 13 | 8 | 190 | 180 | 84 | 78 | 24 | 47 | 178 | 3.96 | 3.72 | 3.76 | 41.9 | 4.2 |
| 20% | 11 | 7 | 169 | 166 | 78 | 73 | 23 | 44 | 152 | 4.16 | 3.91 | 4.04 | 33.5 | 3.3 |
| 2009 | 15 | 10 | 219 | 181 | 82 | 76 | 22 | 42 | 228 | 3.35 | 3.12 | 3.06 | 63.4 | 6.3 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
If you were to believe CAIRO, which is deadly accurate, the Yankees just added one of the top five starters in baseball. I'd temper that slightly because Vazquez has had a history of having better peripherals than actual performance (career FIP of 3.83 vs. career ERA of 4.19), but I don't think it's a stretch to say he's a #1 starter right now, who slots in nicely behind CC Sabathia.
Update(10:02 pm): Full trade is Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan from Atlanta for Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino is a very good prospect, but he's still pretty far from the majors. We know the deal with Melky, and Dunn has a great arm and horrible command. Seems like a fair trade to me. Boone Logan looks like filler, a lefty who projects around replacement level right now, although maybe he can be used as a LOOGY or something. Here's his CAIRO:
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 4 | 2 | 55 | 54 | 26 | 22 | 4 | 22 | 52 | 4.21 | 3.62 | 3.50 | 6.1 | 0.6 |
| 65% | 3 | 3 | 53 | 55 | 29 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 46 | 4.89 | 4.24 | 4.10 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Baseline | 3 | 3 | 50 | 56 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 25 | 41 | 5.64 | 4.92 | 4.71 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 35% | 2 | 3 | 45 | 54 | 31 | 27 | 6 | 25 | 34 | 6.15 | 5.39 | 5.31 | -4.7 | -0.5 |
| 20% | 2 | 3 | 40 | 51 | 30 | 26 | 7 | 24 | 28 | 6.65 | 5.86 | 5.91 | -6.4 | -0.6 |
| 2009 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 6.79 | 5.66 | 4.55 | -3.0 | -0.3 |
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
DAILY NEWS: Yankees watch as Braves make pitch for A.J. Burnett
While the Yankees sit and wait for CC Sabathia to decide whether it’s worth $140 million to pitch in New York, the Braves have put themselves in position to take one of the other big names off the free-agent market.
Just as they were finalizing a trade for Javier Vazquez, the Braves were preparing a five-year offer for A.J. Burnett, according to sources. Burnett, considered the No.2 starter on the market, was expected to wait for Sabathia to make the first move. But with the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays all apparently hesitant to give Burnett a fifth year, the 31-year-old might jump at Atlanta’s offer before Sabathia makes his decision.
Go ahead, A.J. Jump.
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