Sunday, January 24, 2010
2010 CAIRO Projections v0.2
For anyone who's interested, the 2010 CAIRO projections have been updated and can be downloaded here.cairo_2010_v0.2.zip
There were a few projections that were screwed up so those have been fixed, but it's mostly been a case of updating player projections for roster changes and adding players who were not in the first build but were requested. For example, even though I have no faith in it, a Stephen Strasburg projection has been added, based on his college translations and his AFL performance with some regression towards the mean added in. Here's how it looks:
| % | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR | WAR |
| 80% | 5 | 4 | 84 | 82 | 34 | 31 | 4 | 25 | 86 | 3.65 | 3.36 | 2.78 | 19.0 | 1.9 |
| 65% | 5 | 4 | 80 | 83 | 37 | 34 | 5 | 26 | 78 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.22 | 13.4 | 1.3 |
| Baseline | 4 | 5 | 76 | 84 | 40 | 37 | 6 | 28 | 70 | 4.77 | 4.42 | 3.67 | 7.8 | 0.8 |
| 35% | 3 | 4 | 68 | 79 | 39 | 36 | 7 | 27 | 59 | 5.15 | 4.78 | 4.11 | 4.2 | 0.4 |
| 20% | 3 | 4 | 61 | 74 | 37 | 35 | 7 | 26 | 49 | 5.52 | 5.15 | 4.55 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)
The big disparity between FIP and ERA is due to the way hits and other peripherals translate to MLEs. I wouldn't expect such a big disparity in real life, although it'd be because I'd expect his FIP to be closer to his ERA than vice versa, but like I said, I have no faith in this projection.
No Aroldis Chapman projection has been added, although I am working on one. Expect it to be ugly, but you never know.
I've also added a starter projection for Phil Hughes and a reliever projection for Joba Chamberlain since those were not in the original build but got requested.
I've also worked on fixing the mappings for all the players to their MLBAM ids, which is probably gibberish to 99% of you, but trust me, it was a pain in the ass.
There'll be further updates going forward once I have the teams projected in more detail, primarily to pitcher W-L and their stats based on the projected defenses behind them. I'm also hoping to add in something related to projected playing time if I can get to it. I'll also try and add pitcher saves at some point too. If there are any questions or further requests, ask away.
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