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Way back in the 20th century, Bill James wrote the first essential book about baseball managers. Chris Jaffe has just written the second.
- Rob Neyer, ESPN.com
From now on, whenever I have a question about a manager, Jaffe's book will be the first and last one I reach for.
- Sean Forman, Baseball-Reference.com

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John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain's family. He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need. I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.

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Does Robinson Cano’s Approach Change With Men on Base?
(50 Comments - 1/26/2010 10:44:25 am)

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.2
(14 Comments - 1/25/2010 10:56:33 pm)

One Of The Following Stories May or May Not Be True
(26 Comments - 1/25/2010 1:51:23 pm)

What Happened to Wang?
(13 Comments - 1/24/2010 11:53:14 pm)

NY Times - Glanville: Seeing is Disbelieving
(62 Comments - 1/24/2010 9:27:27 pm)

RealGM Baseball: Yankees Among Teams Interested In Edmonds
(3 Comments - 1/23/2010 4:52:40 pm)

Should Jesus Montero Be an Option for Left Field?
(65 Comments - 1/22/2010 10:24:20 am)

CAIRO Projected 2010 AL East Standings as of January 16
(35 Comments - 1/21/2010 2:53:01 pm)

MLB.com - Bauman: Yankees appear stronger
(18 Comments - 1/21/2010 5:21:26 am)

TSBG Versus High and Low Fastballs
(5 Comments - 1/20/2010 9:00:27 am)


Player	Current	Projected

Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Monday, December 14, 2009

2010 CAIRO Projections v0.1

It took a little longer to get these done than I hoped due to time constraints, but here are the first iteration of the 2010 CAIROs for everyone.

2010 CAIRO Projections

These include position players, pitchers and separate defensive projections for zone rating, UZR and catchers. For now free agents are listed with their last team.

These will be updated to account for roster changes, changes in forecasted playing time, and if there are any obvious errors or bugs. If there’s anyone that’s not projected that you’d like me to add, just ask for them here.

A few quick looks at what CAIRO sees in 2010.

Top Ten Projected Starting Pitchers

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Role	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	WAR
Roy Halladay	32	TOR	AL	SP	233	210	84	80	19	39	188	3.10	3.24	7.0
CC Sabathia	29	NYA	AL	SP	230	206	89	83	17	56	203	3.24	3.26	6.4
Felix Hernandez	23	SEA	AL	SP	215	193	84	78	17	70	191	3.25	3.52	5.9
Tim Lincecum	25	SFN	NL	SP	180	144	61	56	10	62	204	2.80	2.77	5.4
Javier Vazquez	33	ATL	NL	SP	211	181	82	77	22	52	222	3.27	3.26	5.3
Johan Santana	30	NYN	NL	SP	194	160	72	69	23	52	181	3.22	3.74	5.1
Dan Haren	29	ARI	NL	SP	220	207	91	85	25	43	209	3.49	3.42	4.9
Zack Greinke	26	KCA	AL	SP	185	186	74	63	15	47	180	3.07	3.12	4.9
Adam Wainwright	28	SLN	NL	SP	189	176	73	67	17	55	158	3.20	3.62	4.8
Justin Verlander	26	DET	AL	SP	217	204	98	89	19	69	213	3.71	3.44	4.6

CC + Roy wouldn't be a bad little 1-2 punch...

Top Ten Projected Relief Pitchers

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Role	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	WAR
Mariano Rivera	40	NYA	AL	RP	69	51	20	18	5	11	72	2.36	2.70	2.1
Joe Nathan	35	MIN	AL	RP	70	46	20	19	6	21	82	2.44	2.89	2.0
Jonathan Papelbon	29	BOS	AL	RP	68	55	20	19	5	19	76	2.57	2.86	1.9
Jonathan Broxton	25	LAN	NL	RP	71	48	22	21	4	27	96	2.65	2.49	1.8
Matt Thornton	33	CHA	AL	RP	68	55	24	23	5	21	76	3.01	2.82	1.6
Heath Bell	32	SDN	NL	RP	71	49	24	22	5	25	74	2.81	3.04	1.6
Darren Oliver	39	ANA	AL	RP	73	65	28	28	6	21	58	3.45	3.66	1.4
Joakim Soria	25	KCA	AL	RP	58	47	19	18	5	17	64	2.80	3.18	1.4
Takashi Saito	40	ATL	AL	RP	58	49	20	20	5	22	59	3.18	3.52	1.3
George Sherrill	32	LAN	NL	RP	61	46	21	20	4	27	62	2.88	3.43	1.3

As if you needed to see CAIRO to see who the best reliever in baseball is...

Top Six Projected Free Agent LF

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	PA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Matt Holliday	31	SLN	NL	LF	666	29	14	4.2
Johnny Damon	37	NYA	AL	LF	624	18	-1	1.7
Jack Cust	31	OAK	AL	LF	604	22	-5	1.7
Ryan Church	32	ATL	NL	LF	433	8	5	1.3
Jason Bay	32	BOS	AL	LF	645	34	-24	1.0
Jonny Gomes	30	CIN	NL	LF	424	12	-5	0.7

Update:The table above is adding ZR and UZR, not averaging them. Here's how the list should look.

Top Six Projected Free Agent LF

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	PA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Matt Holliday	31	SLN	NL	LF	666	29	7	3.5
Jason Bay	32	BOS	AL	LF	645	34	-12	2.2
Johnny Damon	37	NYA	AL	LF	624	18	-1	1.7
Jack Cust	31	OAK	AL	LF	604	22	-3	1.5
Ryan Church	32	ATL	NL	LF	433	8	3	1.1
Jonny Gomes	30	CIN	NL	LF	424	12	-3	0.9

The more I think about it, the less I want Damon back... Bay's defensive projection probably needs to be tempered with the Green Monster effect, but still, even if we make him a -10 defender, he's not worth what he's being offered, I don't think. He should probably be getting something like $10-11M a year, not $15M+.

--Posted at 9:30 am by SG / 257 Comments | - (544)

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