Thursday, November 19, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Robinson Cano
Robinson Cano began his MLB career by hitting .314/.346/.489 over the first 1728 PAs. Heading into his age 25 year in 2008, big things were expected. Instead, Cano had an abysmal season, hitting .271/.305/.410. The projection systems all expected him to improve on that in 2009 for the most part, and he did.
Here’s the rundown of the actual numbers.
| Robinson Cano | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 674 | 636 | 191 | 42 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 33 | 74 | .300 | .340 | .468 | 90 | .336 | .297 | .316 | .355 | .375 | 94.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 674 | 627 | 185 | 42 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 81 | .295 | .334 | .455 | 86 | .328 | .289 | .308 | .347 | .367 | 92.0% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 674 | 628 | 179 | 37 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 79 | .284 | .322 | .419 | 77 | .311 | .273 | .292 | .330 | .349 | 87.3% |
| 2009 tht projection | 674 | 633 | 187 | 40 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 80 | .296 | .339 | .453 | 87 | .332 | .293 | .312 | .351 | .371 | 93.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 674 | 637 | 189 | 44 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 74 | .296 | .335 | .474 | 90 | .335 | .296 | .315 | .354 | .374 | 94.0% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 674 | 631 | 187 | 43 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 77 | .296 | .332 | .464 | 87 | .329 | .290 | .310 | .349 | .368 | 92.4% |
| 2009 average projection | 674 | 632 | 186 | 41 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 33 | 77 | .295 | .334 | .455 | 86 | .328 | .290 | .309 | .348 | .367 | 92.2% |
| 2009 actuals | 674 | 637 | 204 | 48 | 2 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 63 | .320 | .352 | .520 | 101 | .356 | .317 | .337 | .376 | .396 |
*Projections are pro-rated to actual PAs to allow for a direct comparison.
BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA) %: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)
We know batting average is overrated, but in the case of a player like Cano who NEVER walks, it's highly important. For Cano, 30 pts of batting average is effectively 60 pts of OPS. Well, actually that's true for anyone, but a player who walks more frequently can still manage a respectable OBP even if the average dips. For Cano that's not really possible.
Cano actually walked a little less than projected, but he also made better contact and hit for more power (seven more 2Bs and eight more HRs than projected). Assuming those 15 additional XBHs replaced outs, that plus three singles were effectively the difference between his projections and his actuals.
While Cano did take some advantage of DNYS (.338/.370/.541 at home), his line of .303/.333/.498 on the road was still pretty good.
Of the projections, only CHONE saw him getting back to .300, but aside from PECOTA all the projections saw him rebounding at least somewhat. Of course, Cano did better than that, putting up his best offensive season in total value, and being worth about 15 runs more than his average projection would have expected. CHONE and ZiPS were the closest.
Of course, hidden in those numbers is the fact that Cano's performance with men on base (.255/.288/.415) was much worse than with the bases empty (.376/.407/.609). Cano's shown similar tendencies in the past, although far less pronounced (.280/.312/.425 vs. .331/.363/.528). While it's tempting to blame this on his approach or whatever, the fact is, these splits are still not in a large enough sample size for us to assume they are predictive. So don't.
Aside from that issue, Cano's 2009 was yet another pleasant season for a Yankee. Seems like that was a trend, huh? Luckily, we still have Wang, Joba, Cody, Angel and Sergio in the pipeline so we can get our complaining in.
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