Monday, November 16, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Phil Hughes
After breaking camp in 2008 as a member of the starting rotation, ineffectiveness then injury led to a disastrous season for Phil Hughes.
With the memories of 2008 still in the not-so-distant past, Hughes started 2009 in AAA, making three strong starts before being called up on April 28 to pitch against Detroit when Chien-Ming Wang was put on the DL. Hughes threw six scoreless innings in that game, fanning six. Hughes made seven starts, and aside from one awful start against Baltimore where he gave up eight runs in 1.2 innings, he pitched pretty well as a starter, with an ERA of 3.54 (FIP of 4.47) if you exclude the Baltimore start.
Wang returned from the DL and then the bullpen, and it looked like Hughes would be sent back to the minors. However, the Yankees heeded Hughes’s request to stay in the majors and pitch out of the bullpen. Hughes took to the pen like a fish to water. In fact, he was arguably the best relief pitcher in the American League from the day he made his relief debut through the end of the season. Here’s how Hughes’ projections compared to what he ended up doing.
| phil hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 86 | 88 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 33 | 71 | 4.28 | 4.10 | 2 | 13 | 141.0% | 130.1% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 86 | 85 | 47 | 44 | 9 | 33 | 67 | 4.61 | 4.19 | -1 | 10 | 151.8% | 132.8% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 86 | 89 | 49 | 45 | 10 | 34 | 68 | 4.74 | 4.27 | -2 | 8 | 156.1% | 135.5% |
| 2009 tht projection | 86 | 84 | 44 | 41 | 10 | 33 | 66 | 4.28 | 4.27 | 2 | 13 | 141.0% | 135.6% |
| 2009 zips projection | 86 | 89 | 44 | 41 | 6 | 34 | 61 | 4.27 | 3.83 | 2 | 13 | 140.7% | 121.4% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 86 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 8 | 29 | 65 | 4.53 | 3.94 | 0 | 10 | 149.4% | 125.0% |
| 2009 average projection | 86 | 87 | 46 | 43 | 9 | 32 | 66 | 4.45 | 4.10 | 0 | 11 | 146.7% | 130.0% |
| 2009 actual | 86 | 68 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 28 | 96 | 3.03 | 3.15 | 14 | 25 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP
One big caveat here is that Hughes was projected as a starter, so here's a look at the same projections converted to a relief equivalency.
| phil hughes | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 86 | 77 | 35 | 32 | 9 | 34 | 83 | 3.40 | 3.84 | 11 | 21 | 112.0% | 121.8% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 86 | 74 | 37 | 35 | 9 | 35 | 77 | 3.66 | 3.95 | 8 | 19 | 120.6% | 125.1% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 86 | 77 | 39 | 36 | 9 | 36 | 79 | 3.76 | 4.03 | 7 | 18 | 124.0% | 127.6% |
| 2009 tht projection | 86 | 73 | 35 | 32 | 9 | 35 | 76 | 3.40 | 4.03 | 11 | 21 | 112.0% | 127.9% |
| 2009 zips projection | 86 | 77 | 35 | 32 | 6 | 35 | 71 | 3.39 | 3.63 | 11 | 21 | 111.8% | 115.1% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 86 | 77 | 37 | 34 | 8 | 30 | 76 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 9 | 19 | 118.6% | 117.4% |
| 2009 average projection | 86 | 76 | 36 | 34 | 8 | 34 | 77 | 3.54 | 3.86 | 9 | 20 | 116.5% | 122.5% |
| 2009 actual | 86 | 68 | 31 | 29 | 8 | 28 | 96 | 3.03 | 3.15 | 14 | 25 |
Obviously, even adjusted for relief, Hughes blew away his projections, with a better BB rate and K rate, and a much better hit rate.
Hughes also flashed the high-end velocity he was touted for in the minors far more frequently in the bullpen, which made sense, since moving to the pen generally leads to an uptick in velocity.
2009 has to be considered a success for Hughes. It was great to see him dominating MLB hitters, albeit in an easier role. We obviously can't expect him to be nearly as good as a starter, but it'll be interesting to see how he transitions back to the rotation and deals with a bit lower velocity and an increased need to rely on pitches other than his fastball.
Since it's an interesting topic and it came up in the Joba thread a few days ago, here are Hughes's start/relief Pitch FX splits for 2009.
| Type (As Starter) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % |
| Four-seam fastball | 348 | 94.7 | 87.9 | 92.2 | 36.2% | 7.2% | 24.1% | 15.5% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Curveball | 133 | 79.0 | 73.2 | 76.4 | 32.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 18.0% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Cut fastball | 97 | 93.3 | 84.8 | 88.1 | 29.9% | 5.2% | 23.7% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 5.2% | 1.0% |
| Slider | 32 | 89.2 | 84.0 | 87.2 | 43.8% | 6.3% | 21.9% | 18.8% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Change-up | 9 | 85.9 | 81.5 | 83.3 | 77.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 619 | 94.7 | 73.2 | 85.4 | 35.4% | 7.4% | 20.7% | 16.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| Type (As Reliever) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % |
| Four-seam fastball | 642 | 97.3 | 89.9 | 94.6 | 31.0% | 12.5% | 25.9% | 18.7% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Curveball | 196 | 80.4 | 74.6 | 77.5 | 39.8% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 18.4% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Cut fastball | 85 | 94.0 | 86.4 | 89.6 | 25.9% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Slider | 45 | 91.3 | 86.1 | 88.7 | 31.1% | 13.3% | 22.2% | 17.8% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| Change-up | 1 | 84.7 | 84.7 | 84.7 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 969 | 97.3 | 74.6 | 87.0 | 32.4% | 12.4% | 22.5% | 18.0% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
Nothing too suprising here. Hughes's average FB was 94.6 mph coming out of the pen compared to 92.2 as a starter. He threw it for strikes more frequently out of the pen as well, both called and swinging. As a starter, he threw his four-seamer about 56.2% of the time, compared to 66.3% of the time out of the pen. I was surprised he supposedly threw his curve 196 times out of the pen, I could have sworn he threw it like twice.
Anyway, Hughes as a starter is probably going to need to use more sliders and changeups to offset the likely decline in the value of his fastball, but I'm confident he'll be able to do that.
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