Monday, November 30, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Phil Coke, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves
The Yankee bullpen started out shakily in 2009, with pitchers like Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez unable to follow up on their good 2008 performances. Here are some of the key stats for the Yankee bullpen through May 9.
ERA: 6.22
FIP: 6.00
CERA: 5.57
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .266/.355/.506
HR/9: 2.11
BB/9: 4.48
K/9: 8.79
From May 10 on, here’s how the pen performed.
ERA: 3.37
FIP: 4.07
CERA: 3.34
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .222/.295/.365
HR/9: 1.06
BB/9: 3.24
K/9: 8.36
We’ve already covered Phil Hughes, so now I’ll look at Phil Coke, David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves.
| phil coke | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 60 | 60 | 31 | 28 | 7 | 24 | 56 | 4.25 | 3.96 | 2 | 9 | 94.5% | 83.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 60 | 56 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 21 | 47 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 4 | 11 | 87.5% | 82.1% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 60 | 67 | 36 | 33 | 7 | 24 | 43 | 4.99 | 4.43 | -3 | 4 | 111.0% | 93.7% |
| 2009 tht projection | 60 | 68 | 39 | 36 | 9 | 29 | 37 | 5.44 | 5.33 | -6 | 1 | 120.9% | 112.6% |
| 2009 zips projection | 60 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 25 | 37 | 4.91 | 4.72 | -3 | 5 | 109.1% | 99.7% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 60 | 78 | 41 | 39 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 5.82 | 4.33 | -9 | -1 | 129.3% | 91.4% |
| 2009 average projection | 60 | 66 | 35 | 33 | 7 | 23 | 43 | 4.89 | 4.44 | -3 | 5 | 108.7% | 93.9% |
| 2009 actual | 60 | 44 | 34 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 49 | 4.50 | 4.73 | 0 | 8 |
*Coke's projections were primarily as a starter, so I converted them to a relief equivalent.
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
Although his last appearance of the season was a disaster, Phil Coke was pretty good for most of 2009. As a lefty-reliever, his primary job is to get left-handed hitters out. That's something he's done 77.9% of the time in his major league career, which is the good news. The bad news is he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and allowed 10 HRs in 60 innings. The major difference with Coke pitching to righties versus lefties is his BB rate. RHB have hit .202 against him and have slugged .367 against him in his career, good for an ISO(SLG - AVG) of .165. LHB have hit .197 with a .349 SLG, good for an ISO of .152. Coke's walked 16 of the 127 RHB he's faced, compared to 6 of the 163 LHB he's faced.
I know a lot of Yankee fans don't trust him, but I see no reason he can't be an effective second lefty out of the pen.
| david robertson | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 2 | 8 | 123.7% | 129.4% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 44 | 43 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 4.50 | 3.95 | 0 | 5 | 136.6% | 128.0% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 44 | 36 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 22 | 48 | 3.62 | 3.40 | 4 | 10 | 109.9% | 110.1% |
| 2009 tht projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 21 | 47 | 4.08 | 3.99 | 2 | 8 | 123.8% | 129.4% |
| 2009 zips projection | 44 | 41 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 24 | 38 | 4.13 | 3.78 | 2 | 7 | 125.2% | 122.4% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 44 | 39 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 5 | 10 | 105.2% | 98.6% |
| 2009 average projection | 44 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 20 | 43 | 3.98 | 3.69 | 3 | 8 | 120.7% | 119.7% |
| 2009 actual | 44 | 36 | 19 | 16 | 4 | 23 | 63 | 3.30 | 3.09 | 6 | 11 |
Robertson's projections were decent, but he ended up exceeding them. The biggest thing was the bump in his strikeout rate, as he K'd about 20 more batters over his average projection pro-rated to the 44 innings he pitched. Among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings in 2009, Robertson's K/9 rate of 12.98 was second in baseball, behind Jonathan Broxton.
I'm a little concerned about the late season issue that shut Robertson down for most of September, primarily because of how sporadically he was used in the postseason. That tells me that there was at least some lingering concern about his health. As long as that's not an ongoing problem, Robertson's emergence should allow the Yankees to at least try and use both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the rotation, with the hope that Robertson and Damaso Marte can serve as setup men and someone from the farm like Mark Melancon and/or Edwar Ramirez can take Robertson's 2009 role in 2010.
| alfredo aceves | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 84 | 82 | 39 | 37 | 12 | 30 | 63 | 3.93 | 4.64 | 5 | 16 | 111.2% | 126.1% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 84 | 71 | 31 | 29 | 9 | 32 | 68 | 3.06 | 4.12 | 13 | 24 | 86.6% | 112.1% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 84 | 82 | 40 | 37 | 11 | 30 | 60 | 3.99 | 4.62 | 5 | 15 | 113.0% | 125.7% |
| 2009 tht projection | 84 | 82 | 40 | 37 | 12 | 30 | 63 | 3.93 | 4.64 | 5 | 16 | 111.2% | 126.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 84 | 85 | 42 | 38 | 14 | 24 | 51 | 4.12 | 4.96 | 4 | 14 | 116.6% | 134.8% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 84 | 75 | 38 | 36 | 11 | 13 | 52 | 3.83 | 4.15 | 6 | 17 | 108.5% | 112.8% |
| 2009 average projection | 84 | 79 | 38 | 36 | 12 | 27 | 60 | 3.81 | 4.52 | 6 | 17 | 107.8% | 122.9% |
| 2009 actual | 84 | 69 | 36 | 33 | 10 | 16 | 69 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 9 | 20 |
*Like Coke, Aceves's projections were primarily as a starter so I converted them to a relief equivalency.
Aceves emerged as one of the Yankees' most important relievers and a had a very good season even though he tailed off at the end. His ERA got as low as 2.02 on July 5. He then started a game against Minnesota on July 9 and scuffled the rest of the way (4.91 ERA). While it's a nice and convenient end point to look at that start and blame it for Aceves's year-end tailing off, a deeper look at the numbers removing that start shows this:
| Split | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | HBP | ERA | FIP | CERA |
| Through Jul 5 | 40.0 | 30 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 2.03 | 3.88 | 2.81 |
| July 18-Oct 3 | 40.7 | 35 | 22 | 21 | 8 | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4.65 | 3.67 | 3.21 |
| Total | 81 | 65 | 32 | 30 | 16 | 67 | 9 | 5 | 3.35 | 3.77 | 3.01 |
Aceves didn't really pitch all that much differently before or after the start. The primary difference was five extra singles, and 12 extra runs allowed. His final overall line is reasonably close to what it should have been given his peripherals, maybe a touch better.
While the Yankees have supposedly asked Aceves to prepare to come into spring training as a starter, it's more likely he'll be in the pen again in 2010 depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out, and he should be an asset there again just like he was in 2009.
I'm going to do one more of these for Mariano Rivera, but I think I'm going to skip the bench and scrubs unless there's a demand for it. Then we can dive into Hot Stove GM mode.
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