Wednesday, November 25, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain
While the big free agent signings and high-salaried players on the team are generally the main focus, the Yankees did get some help from players they developed through their farm system. Two examples of that are Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain. Let’s see how Melky and Joba did compared to their projections.
After a nice first full season where Melky put up a pretty good .360 OBP at age 21, came two subsequent seasons where he declined. It's generally not a good thing to get worse at an age when you should be getting better, so 2009 was a big season for Melky. Brett Gardner won the spring training competition for CF, which meant Melky would start the year as Gardner's platoon partner as well as being as a backup for Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady.
Nady was lost for the season after six games, and Melky slowly started to wrest some of Gardner's playing time, eventually taking back the starting CF job.
Here are his projections entering 2009 and then his actual performance.
| melky cabrera | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 540 | 491 | 137 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 46 | 67 | .280 | .345 | .402 | 80 | .322 | .279 | .301 | .344 | .365 | 101.6% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 540 | 482 | 131 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 44 | 68 | .271 | .330 | .383 | 74 | .307 | .264 | .286 | .328 | .349 | 96.7% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 540 | 487 | 130 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 41 | 68 | .267 | .324 | .376 | 71 | .302 | .259 | .280 | .323 | .344 | 95.0% |
| 2009 tht projection | 540 | 495 | 134 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 41 | 69 | .270 | .331 | .376 | 73 | .308 | .265 | .287 | .329 | .350 | 97.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 540 | 497 | 132 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 39 | 67 | .265 | .324 | .383 | 72 | .305 | .263 | .284 | .326 | .347 | 96.1% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 540 | 485 | 130 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 42 | 68 | .268 | .325 | .382 | 72 | .303 | .261 | .282 | .324 | .346 | 95.6% |
| 2009 average projection | 540 | 489 | 132 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 42 | 68 | .270 | .330 | .384 | 73 | .308 | .265 | .287 | .329 | .350 | 97.0% |
| 2009 actuals | 540 | 485 | 133 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 43 | 59 | .274 | .333 | .416 | 81 | .317 | .274 | .296 | .339 | .360 |
| Projection | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 |
| 2009 chone projection | 566 | 515 | 144 | 25 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 48 | 70 | .280 | .345 | .402 | 80 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 488 | 436 | 118 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 40 | 61 | .271 | .330 | .383 | 74 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 484 | 436 | 116 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 37 | 61 | .267 | .324 | .376 | 71 |
| 2009 tht projection | 525 | 481 | 130 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 40 | 67 | .270 | .331 | .376 | 73 |
| 2009 zips projection | 553 | 509 | 135 | 20 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 40 | 69 | .265 | .324 | .383 | 72 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 523 | 469 | 126 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 41 | 66 | .268 | .325 | .382 | 72 |
| 2009 average projection | 523 | 474 | 128 | 21 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 41 | 66 | .270 | .330 | .384 | 73 |
| 2009 actuals | 540 | 485 | 133 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 43 | 59 | .274 | .336 | .416 | 81 |
BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)
Melky was about one win better than projected on offense, solely due to an increase in power (seven more 2Bs and four more HRs than projected). Like most of his teammates, Melky took advantage of DNYS, but only in the HR department. He hit .271/.336/.424 at home and .278/.336/.409 on the road. His average and OBP were essentially right where they were projected to be. CHONE was the closest system on Melky, although it overprojected his OBP and underprojected his SLG. He was still a little below average and the only regular in the starting lineup to be so, but after two straight disappointing seasons it was nice to see him improve.
Melky's defense, while not as good as Gardner's, was also an asset, as he saved four runs above average according to zone rating and one run above average according to UZR.
Unlike Melky, Joba Chamberlain did not exceed his projections.
| joba chamberlain | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 157 | 137 | 64 | 59 | 14 | 61 | 174 | 3.39 | 3.30 | 19 | 39 | 71.3% | 70.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 157 | 139 | 59 | 54 | 11 | 57 | 163 | 3.07 | 3.14 | 25 | 45 | 64.7% | 66.9% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 157 | 135 | 59 | 54 | 10 | 60 | 169 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 25 | 44 | 65.1% | 64.9% |
| 2009 tht projection | 157 | 129 | 60 | 56 | 13 | 61 | 175 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 23 | 42 | 67.4% | 68.0% |
| 2009 zips projection | 157 | 152 | 71 | 66 | 14 | 62 | 155 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 13 | 32 | 79.4% | 76.9% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 157 | 149 | 65 | 60 | 14 | 54 | 161 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 18 | 38 | 72.6% | 71.5% |
| 2009 average projection | 157 | 140 | 63 | 58 | 13 | 59 | 166 | 3.33 | 3.27 | 20 | 40 | 70.1% | 69.8% |
| 2009 actual | 157 | 167 | 94 | 83 | 21 | 76 | 133 | 4.75 | 4.69 | -4 | 15 |
| joba chamberlain | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 101 | 88 | 41 | 38 | 9 | 39 | 112 | 3.39 | 3.30 | 13 | 25 | 71.3% | 70.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 85 | 75 | 32 | 29 | 6 | 31 | 88 | 3.07 | 3.14 | 14 | 24 | 64.7% | 66.9% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 124 | 107 | 47 | 43 | 8 | 47 | 133 | 3.09 | 3.05 | 19 | 35 | 65.1% | 64.9% |
| 2009 tht projection | 100 | 82 | 38 | 36 | 8 | 39 | 111 | 3.20 | 3.19 | 14 | 27 | 67.4% | 68.0% |
| 2009 zips projection | 131 | 127 | 59 | 55 | 12 | 52 | 129 | 3.77 | 3.61 | 11 | 27 | 79.4% | 76.9% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 117 | 111 | 49 | 45 | 11 | 40 | 120 | 3.45 | 3.36 | 14 | 28 | 72.6% | 71.5% |
| 2009 average projection | 110 | 98 | 44 | 41 | 9 | 41 | 116 | 3.33 | 3.27 | 14 | 28 | 70.1% | 69.8% |
| 2009 actual | 157 | 167 | 94 | 83 | 21 | 76 | 133 | 4.75 | 4.69 | -4 | 15 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
Where to start? HR rate way up. BB rate way up. K rate way down. Hit rate way up. ERA and FIP way up.
Aside from that, Joba had a great year.
I realize that's a little snarky, because there were some positive developments in 2009. The most important thing was he was able to make 31 starts and pitch 157.1 innings, which should mean he would be able to handle a full workload as a starter next year.
Joba's velocity was down in 2009, even when we remove his pitches in relief. Here's a Pitch F/X comparison of Joba as a starter in 2008 compared to Joba as a starter in 2009.
| Type (as a starter in 2008) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % |
| Fastball | 715 | 100.2 | 89.8 | 95.1 | 36.9% | 6.0% | 20.1% | 20.3% | 10.6% | 4.2% | 0.1% |
| Slider | 248 | 89.2 | 80.5 | 85.3 | 27.0% | 26.2% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| Curveball | 126 | 86.0 | 72.8 | 78.2 | 38.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 34.9% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Change-up | 28 | 89.3 | 80.9 | 83.5 | 35.7% | 14.3% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1117 | 100.2 | 72.8 | 85.5 | 34.8% | 10.7% | 16.9% | 20.3% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 0.2% |
| Type (as a starter in 2009) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % |
| Four-seam fastball | 1711 | 97.6 | 87.0 | 92.5 | 40.9% | 3.3% | 15.7% | 20.2% | 12.1% | 4.3% | 0.4% |
| Slider | 514 | 92.2 | 75.0 | 84.6 | 27.4% | 18.1% | 12.3% | 18.7% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 0.4% |
| Curveball | 329 | 92.0 | 73.0 | 79.3 | 39.5% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 21.3% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Change-up | 129 | 87.6 | 77.4 | 82.3 | 39.5% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 2683 | 97.6 | 73.0 | 84.7 | 38.1% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 19.7% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 0.4% |
Joba's fastball was down about 2.6 mph on average from 2008. He also had worse command of it, and got fewer swinging strikes with it. His slider velocity and command look similar between 2008 and 2009, but he got fewer swings and misses with it. That could be related to lower fastball velocity/command making it easier to sit slider and adjust to the fastball, or it could be related to a myriad of other things.
We don't know if Joba will get his velocity back. It's possible that whatever he suffered in Texas has taken some of it away for good. Then again, it may just be a conditioning issue or a mechanical issue that could be fixed.
Justin Verlander lost some juice on his fastball in 2008 but recoverd it in 2009 (2007 avg FB: 94.8, 2008 avg FB: 93.6, 2009 avg FB: 95.6), so I think that's encouraging in the case of Joba.
A lot of people have criticized the Yankees for their handling of Chamberlain, but that's just symptomatic of impatience and the need to complain just to complain. The Yankees are handling him in a manner that they feel will be in the best interests of him and the team in the long-term. If that's the goal, why would you judge it on the results in the near-term? In a few years, we'll know whether or not they were right.
Even though the Yankees bought the World Series, they can point to Melky and Joba as contributors they drafted/signed and developed.
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