Wednesday, December 2, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez
It doesn’t seem like doing a season in review and skipping the three and four hitters is a good idea.
For much of the offseason, the non-courtship of Mark Teixeira by the Yankees was somewhat frustrating. The Yankees had an obvious hole at first base, and had a chance to get arguably the second best overall first baseman in baseball to fill it, and they would not have to surrender any talent from the organization to do it. With Teixeira still being under 30, he'd also help the team get younger, as well as better defensively.As Christmas 2008 approached, it seemed like Teixeira to the Red Sox was just a case of dotting the i's and crossing the t's. This would have made Boston the clear favorites in a tight AL East. However, over a span of a few hours, reports started coming in that the Yankees and Teixeira were actually talking, with Jon Heyman eventually being the first to confirm that the Yankees and Teixeira had agreed to a deal. Being Scott Boras's sock puppet has its advantages.
As we know, Teixeira was a key part of the team's regular season success, even if he SCUFFLED a bit in the postseason. Here's how Teix performed compared to his projections.
| mark teixeira | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std |
| 2009 chone projection | 707 | 613 | 175 | 36 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 89 | 119 | .286 | .381 | .521 | 108 | .374 | .335 | .354 | .393 | .413 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 707 | 604 | 177 | 41 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 119 | .292 | .393 | .522 | 110 | .381 | .341 | .361 | .400 | .420 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 707 | 607 | 174 | 38 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 87 | 113 | .287 | .379 | .506 | 104 | .367 | .328 | .348 | .387 | .406 |
| 2009 tht projection | 707 | 612 | 175 | 40 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 1 | 88 | 118 | .287 | .383 | .513 | 106 | .373 | .333 | .353 | .392 | .412 |
| 2009 zips projection | 707 | 607 | 177 | 41 | 1 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 92 | 115 | .292 | .392 | .517 | 109 | .379 | .339 | .359 | .398 | .418 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 707 | 605 | 176 | 40 | 1 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 117 | .291 | .387 | .528 | 110 | .378 | .339 | .358 | .397 | .417 |
| 2009 average projection | 707 | 608 | 176 | 39 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 89 | 117 | .289 | .386 | .518 | 108 | .375 | .336 | .356 | .395 | .414 |
| 2009 actuals | 707 | 609 | 178 | 43 | 3 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 81 | 114 | .292 | .383 | .565 | 116 | .384 | .345 | .365 | .404 | .424 |
BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)
He hit more homers than projected and walked a bit less, but aside from that he did what he was projected to do. Teix took advantage of DNYS like most Yankees, as he hit 24 of his 39 HRs at home and hit .312/.387/.627, compared to .272/.380/.502 on the road. Part of that is the fact that the majority of players hit better at home regardless, so don't think this means he's a park illusion.
He wasn't the MVP in the AL (then again, neither was Joe Mauer). He probably wasn't even the most valuable Yankee, as Derek Jeter and CC Sabathia have cases for being more valuable. Still, he was a very good player on the best team in baseball.
Across the diamond, Alex Rodriguez had about as bad of an offseason as you could imagine for a baseball player. First came the reports and admission of his use of PEDs. Now branded with the scarlet S in a sport that's been as pure as Ivory soap otherwise, Rodriguez had to hold a press conference for damage control, just like Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte did. Other press conferences of note, Brian Roberts, Troy Glaus and Jose Guillen. Oh wait, only the Yankees are required to give steroid press conferences...
As if that wasn't bad enough, there then came the news that Rodriguez's entire season was in jeopardy due to a torn labrum in his hip. I think it was at this point that Rodriguez started to get treated a little differently by the media and fans. The prospect of losing him for the entire season may have finally caused the clowns who said the Yankees would be better off without him to realize, no, they would be worse. Much worse. Like 6-7 wins worse.
The news turned out to not be as dire as initially reported, as Rodriguez was able to have a less extensive surgery that allowed him to return in May. When that happened, the Yankees effectively took off after SCUFFLING for the first 29 games of the season (12-17).
| alex rodriguez | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std |
| 2009 chone projection | 535 | 457 | 134 | 23 | 1 | 33 | 13 | 3 | 69 | 105 | .294 | .397 | .564 | 119 | .394 | .349 | .372 | .417 | .440 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 535 | 456 | 132 | 24 | 1 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 64 | 104 | .289 | .379 | .545 | 113 | .376 | .331 | .354 | .399 | .421 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 535 | 460 | 130 | 25 | 1 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 62 | 107 | .282 | .373 | .508 | 106 | .365 | .320 | .342 | .387 | .410 |
| 2009 tht projection | 535 | 460 | 134 | 25 | 0 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 64 | 103 | .292 | .392 | .552 | 117 | .388 | .343 | .366 | .411 | .434 |
| 2009 zips projection | 535 | 457 | 134 | 25 | 0 | 31 | 14 | 3 | 65 | 103 | .292 | .395 | .549 | 117 | .389 | .344 | .367 | .412 | .435 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 535 | 453 | 134 | 24 | 0 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 67 | 104 | .296 | .398 | .553 | 118 | .391 | .345 | .368 | .414 | .437 |
| 2009 average projection | 535 | 457 | 133 | 24 | 1 | 30 | 14 | 3 | 65 | 104 | .291 | .389 | .545 | 115 | .384 | .339 | .361 | .407 | .429 |
| 2009 actuals | 535 | 444 | 127 | 17 | 1 | 30 | 14 | 2 | 80 | 97 | .286 | .402 | .532 | 115 | .388 | .343 | .366 | .411 | .434 |
Although he didn't play as often as projected, he ended up just about as valuable as projected on a rate basis, with a few more walks and few less doubles. He also K'd a bit less than projected, which may or may not mean anything. Most of the projections were pretty close.
Of course, what happened in the regular season was nice, but the story of Rodriguez's 2009 will be his tremendous effort in the postseason. Rodriguez hit .365./.500/.808 in 68 postseason PAs, with 6 HRs and 18 RBI. His game-tying bottom of the ninth two-run HR off Joe Nathan in ALDS Game 2 may have been the biggest hit of his Yankee career at the time. Then, he hit ANOTHER bottom of the ninth game-tying HR off Brian Fuentes in ALCS Game 2. Although he didn't have a great World Series, his two-run instant replay HR with the Yankees trailing 3-0 helped the Yanks to rally and take Game Three.
So now, he can't be called A-Fraud or A-Freud. Well, he could, but whoever does it is going to sound dumb. I guess A-Roid is still on the table. The brilliance of that is they change his nickname to reference the fact that he used steroids. Subtle, yet ingenious.
So yeah, the Yankee corner IF was great in 2009.
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