Thursday, December 3, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Mariano F’ing Rivera
Who better to close out the 2009 season reviews with than the guy who’s closed so many Yankee victories over the last 12 seasons?
Projection systems aren't designed to handle someone like Mariano Rivera, who consistently exceeds his projections. Here's how Mo projected heading into 2009.
| mariano rivera | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 66 | 59 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 63 | 2.86 | 2.64 | 12 | 20 | 161.9% | 89.8% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 66 | 58 | 24 | 23 | 5 | 15 | 58 | 3.09 | 3.08 | 10 | 19 | 175.1% | 104.7% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 66 | 57 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 64 | 2.42 | 2.54 | 15 | 24 | 137.3% | 86.3% |
| 2009 tht projection | 66 | 55 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 63 | 2.52 | 2.57 | 15 | 23 | 142.8% | 87.2% |
| 2009 zips projection | 66 | 55 | 18 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 64 | 2.28 | 2.24 | 16 | 25 | 129.4% | 76.3% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 66 | 53 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 61 | 2.38 | 2.61 | 16 | 24 | 134.8% | 88.7% |
| 2009 average projection | 66 | 56 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 12 | 62 | 2.59 | 2.61 | 14 | 22 | 146.9% | 88.8% |
| 2009 actual | 66 | 48 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 72 | 1.76 | 2.94 | 20 | 28 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
Rivera's projections were all pretty close to each other, with Marcel the major outlier. Rivera managed to better his projections in his K rate and his hit rate as well as his ERA, although he gave up more home runs than projected. It's probably worth noting that five of those seven HRs allowed came in his first 17 appearances. In those first 17 appearances, Rivera had an ERA of 3.06, and opponents hit .264/.274/.472 against him. Over his next six appearances he continued to struggle somewhat, with a 4.76 ERA and a .292/.320/.417 opponent's line. Around that time, Joe Girardi made comments that Rivera had not yet fully recovered his arm strength after last off-season's shoulder surgery, but let's see what Pitch F/X says.
| Type (through June 6) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Cut fastball | 319 | 94.0 | 87.9 | 91.2 | 28.8% | 7.5% | 24.5% | 21.6% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 23.8 | -11.8 | 4.9 |
| Four-seam fastball | 56 | 93.4 | 89.4 | 91.3 | 46.4% | 5.4% | 12.5% | 16.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 23.8 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| Total | 375 | 94.0 | 87.9 | 91.3 | 31.5% | 7.2% | 22.7% | 20.8% | 10.9% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Type (June 7 through end of season) | # | max | min | avg | ball % | stkS% | foul% | stkC% | In play, out(s)% | In play, no out % | HBP % | break_y | break_angle | break_length |
| Cut fastball | 731 | 94.2 | 86.4 | 91.2 | 31.3% | 8.5% | 21.6% | 20.5% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 23.8 | -14.3 | 5.1 |
| Four-seam fastball | 178 | 94.5 | 86.8 | 91.1 | 41.6% | 6.7% | 27.0% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 23.9 | -2.0 | 5.6 |
| Total | 909 | 94.5 | 86.4 | 91.1 | 33.3% | 8.1% | 22.7% | 18.9% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
break_y: the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs(definition taken from this site)
break_angle: the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively;
break_length: the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory.
Not a whole lot of difference in terms of velocity here, although it looks like Mo started getting better break on the cutter.
From June 7 through the end of the season, Rivera had a 0.84 ERA, holding opposing batters to a line of .149/.208/.216.
Mo showed that even if he's lost a tick or two off the cutter, he can continue to be one of the best closers in the game. After another stellar postseason where Rivera pitched 16 innings and allowed just one earned run, he said he wants to pitch for five more years, which would take him through age 44. Dennis Eckersely and Doug Jones were both able to pitch through age 43, and neither was as good as Rivera was at age 39, so I wouldn't bet against him.
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