Wednesday, November 18, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Jorge Posada
It took an injury that cost him the bulk of 2008 for a lot of Yankee fans to finally appreciate just how important Jorge Posada has been to the Yankees during his career. Coming off that injury and subsequent surgery as a 37 year old catcher, how much Posada would contribute in 2009 was a very real concern.
So let’s see what Posada was expected to do compared to what he actually did.
| jorge posada | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 438 | 380 | 101 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 79 | .266 | .363 | .434 | 89 | .341 | .293 | .317 | .366 | .390 | 94.4% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 438 | 380 | 108 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 50 | 80 | .285 | .371 | .466 | 97 | .352 | .303 | .328 | .377 | .401 | 97.4% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 438 | 382 | 95 | 22 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 86 | .249 | .336 | .406 | 79 | .317 | .269 | .293 | .340 | .364 | 87.6% |
| 2009 tht projection | 438 | 381 | 106 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 51 | 79 | .279 | .373 | .444 | 92 | .350 | .301 | .325 | .374 | .399 | 96.7% |
| 2009 zips projection | 438 | 379 | 108 | 27 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 52 | 79 | .286 | .383 | .455 | 96 | .358 | .309 | .333 | .383 | .407 | 99.0% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 438 | 377 | 109 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 55 | 80 | .289 | .386 | .465 | 99 | .362 | .313 | .337 | .387 | .412 | 100.2% |
| 2009 average projection | 438 | 380 | 105 | 24 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 52 | 80 | .276 | .369 | .445 | 92 | .347 | .298 | .322 | .371 | .396 | 95.9% |
| 2009 actuals | 438 | 383 | 109 | 25 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 48 | 101 | .285 | .363 | .522 | 105 | .362 | .312 | .337 | .386 | .411 |
BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)
Those projections were actually better than I remembered. I guess the PECOTA one was the one that stuck in my craw. And Yay CAIRO for essentially nailing its Posada projection in terms of wOBA, although it missed on the shape of how he got there (high on OBP, low on SLG).
I guess I have to mention the fact that Posada gives back some of that value when you factor in his baserunning and defense, but not enough of it to keep him from being a positive contributor. Did you know that the only full-time catcher in MLB to outhit Posada was Joe Mauer, who will probably be announced as stealing Zach Greinke's MVP at some point soon?
I don't think Posada's going to accrue enough in the way of counting stats to get into the Hall of Fame, but he's been one of the best catchers of his generation and now has five World Series rings. You could do a lot worse than that with yourself.
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