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2010 CAIRO Projections v0.2
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TSBG Versus High and Low Fastballs
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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui

I figured it’s time to get through the rest of these and go full bore into off-season mode, so here’s a tripleheader look at how the Yankees’ starting corner OFs and DH performed relative to expectations in 2009.

Since it's come up in a few of the previous reviews, I'll show two tables for the projections. The first will have them all pro-rated to the actual 2009 PAs, and the second one will be the projections with their original estimated playing times.

johnny damon	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	626	561	155	27	3	15	19	5	63	82	.276	.351	.417	85	.330	.290	.310	.350	.371	93.2%
2009 marcel projection	626	555	153	28	3	16	24	7	63	88	.276	.348	.428	87	.329	.289	.309	.350	.370	92.9%
2009 pecota projection	626	554	155	29	5	14	26	7	62	88	.280	.353	.423	87	.331	.291	.311	.351	.371	93.4%
2009 tht projection	626	559	153	28	3	14	24	5	64	87	.273	.351	.412	85	.328	.288	.308	.349	.369	92.7%
2009 zips projection	626	562	163	30	4	15	25	7	62	78	.291	.363	.438	92	.342	.302	.322	.363	.383	96.6%
2009 cairo projection	626	556	157	29	4	15	22	6	62	84	.282	.354	.433	89	.335	.294	.314	.355	.375	94.4%
2009 average projection	626	558	156	29	4	15	23	6	63	85	.280	.353	.425	88	.333	.292	.313	.353	.373	93.9%
2009 actuals	626	550	155	36	3	24	12	0	71	98	.282	.364	.489	101	.355	.313	.334	.375	.396

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	615	551	152	27	3	15	19	5	62	81	.276	.351	.417	85
2009 marcel projection	572	507	140	26	3	15	22	6	58	80	.276	.348	.428	87
2009 pecota projection	549	486	136	26	4	12	22	6	55	77	.280	.353	.423	87
2009 tht projection	573	512	140	26	3	13	22	5	59	80	.273	.351	.412	85
2009 zips projection	628	564	164	30	4	15	25	7	62	78	.291	.363	.438	92
2009 cairo projection	634	564	159	30	4	16	22	6	63	86	.282	.354	.433	89
2009 average projection	595	530	148	27	4	14	22	6	60	80	.280	.353	.425	88
2009 actuals	626	550	155	36	3	24	12	0	71	98	.282	.365	.489	101

BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA) %: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)

In the final year of a four year contract that turned out a lot better than I expected, Johnny Damon put up the best OPS+ of his career, tying his career-high in HRs with 24. Damon essentially hit for the same average as projected by most of the systems, but showed more pop in both doubles and HRs. The HRs are easily explained by DNYS (where Damon his 17 of 24 HRs). Damon hit .279/.382/ .533 at home compared to .284/.349/.446 on the road. He also walked and struck out a little more than projected. ZiPS was the closest on Damon, although all the systems missed low.

The glove? Let's just say Damon had a very good offensive season.

Nick Swisher	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	607	515	127	26	1	26	3	1	87	134	.247	.360	.454	92	.345	.303	.324	.365	.386	96.6%
2009 marcel projection	607	509	125	26	1	23	3	2	85	131	.245	.357	.434	88	.337	.296	.316	.357	.378	94.4%
2009 pecota projection	607	511	125	26	1	27	3	2	82	139	.244	.352	.460	91	.340	.298	.319	.360	.381	95.2%
2009 tht projection	607	517	128	27	1	25	3	2	84	131	.247	.359	.447	91	.342	.301	.322	.363	.384	95.9%
2009 zips projection	607	516	131	29	2	27	3	2	85	138	.254	.366	.471	96	.352	.310	.331	.373	.394	98.7%
2009 cairo projection	607	510	123	28	1	24	2	2	85	135	.240	.353	.442	88	.336	.295	.315	.356	.377	94.1%
2009 average projection	607	513	126	27	1	25	3	2	84	135	.246	.358	.451	91	.342	.301	.321	.363	.383	95.8%
2009 actuals	607	498	124	35	1	29	0	0	97	126	.249	.369	.498	101	.357	.315	.336	.378	.399

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	602	511	126	26	1	26	3	1	86	133	.247	.360	.454	92
2009 marcel projection	560	470	115	24	1	21	3	2	78	121	.245	.357	.434	88
2009 pecota projection	524	441	108	22	1	24	3	1	71	120	.244	.352	.460	91
2009 tht projection	565	481	119	25	1	23	3	2	78	122	.247	.359	.447	91
2009 zips projection	617	524	133	29	2	27	3	2	86	140	.254	.366	.471	96
2009 cairo projection	618	519	125	28	1	24	2	2	86	137	.240	.353	.442	88
2009 average projection	581	491	121	26	1	24	3	2	81	129	.246	.358	.451	91
2009 actuals	607	498	124	35	1	29	0	0	97	126	.249	.371	.498	101

Rescued from the South Side of Chicago, Nick Swisher rebounded from a .219/.332/.410 line in 2008 to hit .249/.371/.498. In roughly the same PT as last year, Swisher hit 14 more 2Bs and five more HRs, while walking 15 more times. ZiPS came very close to Swisher's final line.

Swisher was below average defensively in 2009, but compared to his predecessor (2008 Bobby Abreu) he looked like the Ozzie Smith of RF.

hideki matsui	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	528	468	130	24	1	17	2	1	57	65	.277	.360	.443	90	.342	.298	.320	.364	.386	94.8%
2009 marcel projection	528	464	128	23	2	16	4	1	56	70	.277	.358	.443	89	.340	.296	.318	.363	.385	94.3%
2009 pecota projection	528	465	128	24	1	13	2	1	54	72	.275	.352	.417	83	.330	.286	.308	.352	.373	91.3%
2009 tht projection	528	466	130	25	1	16	1	1	58	71	.279	.364	.441	90	.344	.300	.322	.366	.388	95.3%
2009 zips projection	528	468	136	28	3	17	2	2	58	61	.290	.371	.476	97	.357	.312	.334	.379	.401	98.8%
2009 cairo projection	528	464	131	25	2	17	2	1	57	67	.283	.361	.454	91	.344	.300	.322	.366	.388	95.3%
2009 average projection	528	466	131	25	2	16	2	1	57	68	.280	.361	.446	90	.343	.298	.321	.365	.387	95.0%
2009 actuals	528	456	125	21	1	28	0	1	64	75	.274	.366	.509	101	.361	.316	.338	.383	.406

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	525	465	129	24	1	17	2	1	57	65	.277	.360	.443	90
2009 marcel projection	452	397	110	20	2	14	3	1	48	60	.277	.358	.443	89
2009 pecota projection	403	355	98	18	1	10	1	1	42	55	.275	.352	.417	83
2009 tht projection	426	376	105	20	1	13	1	1	47	57	.279	.364	.441	90
2009 zips projection	614	544	158	33	4	20	2	2	67	71	.290	.371	.476	97
2009 cairo projection	459	403	114	22	2	14	2	1	49	58	.283	.361	.454	91
2009 average projection	480	423	119	23	2	15	2	1	52	62	.280	.361	.446	90
2009 actuals	528	456	125	21	1	28	0	1	64	75	.274	.366	.509	101

Hideki Matsui, like Damon, was also in the last year of a four year contract. Unlike Damon, Matsui's contract has been a disappointment, although it's been due to injury more than under-performance. When he's been healthy, he's been solid, and he picked the best time of his Yankee tenure to get hot in the World Series, winning the MVP. Matsui showed a lot more HR power than projected, although it's worth noting that he hit 15 HRs on the road compared to 13 at DNYS. He actually hit for a lower average than projected, but he walked enough to bump his OBP higher than expected. He was also able to play more frequently than he did in 2006 and 2008.

It seems more and more likely that Matsui's time with the Yankees is over. If it is, I tip my cap to a guy who was fun to watch. Although the 2009 World Series will probably end up being his signature moment, the play I think of with Matsui was the play where he broke his wrist in 2006. His first impulse after it happened was not to hold his wrist which must have been in excruciating pain, but to get the ball back into the infield.

There were a lot of people who picked the Yankees third in the AL East this year, and a big part of the reason they exeeded those predictions is because they got around thirty extra runs of offense out of Damon, Swisher and Matsui.

--Posted at 6:18 am by SG / 54 Comments | - (125)

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