Tuesday, December 1, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the Defense
As requested, here’s a look at how Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the overall team defense did compared to their projections.
After a 2008 season that saw him get to AA, Cervelli was still probably off the radar for 2009 despite a brief cameo at the end of 2008. However, injuries forced him into the picture, and he ended up getting 101 PAs. Here are his projections entering 2009, pro-rated to those 101 PAs.
| francisco cervelli | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 101 | 92 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 25 | .223 | .296 | .304 | 53 | .268 | .174 | .221 | .315 | .362 | 95.3% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 101 | 90 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 18 | .272 | .337 | .422 | 82 | .321 | .221 | .271 | .370 | .420 | 114.2% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 24 | .229 | .300 | .335 | 60 | .277 | .182 | .229 | .324 | .372 | 98.5% |
| 2009 tht projection | 101 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | .236 | .315 | .321 | 59 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.1% |
| 2009 zips projection | 101 | 90 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 18 | .236 | .317 | .304 | 56 | .281 | .186 | .234 | .329 | .377 | 100.2% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 101 | 91 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | .240 | .314 | .326 | 61 | .284 | .188 | .236 | .332 | .380 | 101.2% |
| 2009 average projection | 101 | 90 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 21 | .239 | .313 | .335 | 62 | .286 | .190 | .238 | .334 | .382 | 101.8% |
| 2009 actuals | 101 | 94 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | .298 | .309 | .372 | 55 | .281 | .185 | .233 | .329 | .376 |
Cervelli had shown pretty good plate discipline in the minors, but it deserted him in the majors. Despite that, he was able to come fairly close to his projected OBP because he hit six more singles. That also explains why he was able to exceed his SLG by a fair amount.
The .298 average is nice, but it was sort of empty, and it's doubtful he'll be able to replicate the same type of performance in 2010 if he has to rely on hitting .298 to do it. The good news is he should walk a little more and he's still going to be just 24, so he has room for growth in his offensive game. While it's probably unlikely he'll be more than a backup, he should be a decent one, especially if the good defense he showed in 2009 carries forward.
Sort of like Cervelli, Ramiro Pena hadn't gotten past AA prior to 2009, and he hadn't really impressed there either, slugging a monstrous .297 in 2008 for Trenton. Pena's calling card isn't his bat though, it's his glove. In a surprise, he made the Yankees on opening day as a backup IF, since Alex Rodriguez was out rehabbing his hip and the only other backup IF on the roster was Angel Berroa.
Because of Pena's unimpressive minor league resume, his projections were unimpressive.
| ramiro pena | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 121 | 113 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 25 | .233 | .284 | .297 | 48 | .258 | .173 | .215 | .300 | .342 | 86.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 121 | 110 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 20 | .224 | .272 | .320 | 50 | .255 | .170 | .212 | .297 | .339 | 85.7% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 121 | 108 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 | .223 | .285 | .286 | 47 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .339 | 85.8% |
| 2009 tht projection | 121 | 113 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | .224 | .276 | .291 | 45 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .294 | .336 | 84.8% |
| 2009 zips projection | 121 | 114 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | .224 | .269 | .263 | 39 | .240 | .158 | .199 | .282 | .323 | 80.9% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 121 | 112 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 21 | .232 | .282 | .290 | 46 | .255 | .171 | .213 | .297 | .340 | 85.9% |
| 2009 average projection | 121 | 112 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 | .227 | .278 | .291 | 46 | .252 | .168 | .210 | .295 | .337 | 85.0% |
| 2009 actuals | 121 | 115 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 20 | .287 | .317 | .383 | 71 | .297 | .208 | .253 | .342 | .386 |
Like Cervelli, Pena hit more and walked less than expected. However, he did show a little more pop than projected, with two extra doubles. Obviously when we're dealing with sample sizes like this we shouldn't try to infer too much about what it means going forward, but Pena's final line in 2009 was better than replacement level, and would have made him about a win better than replacement level on offense if he had done it over 650 PAs.
So, how about the Yankee defense?
Since I started blogging in 2004, there's been one recurring theme with the Yankees. Their defense has generally been bad to awful. While you can hit and pitch well enough to overcome that, it can be frustrating to watch players not making plays other players can make.
When the Yankees let Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi go and replaced them with Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, that alone looked like a pretty decent defensive upgrade. Here's how the defense projected heading into 2009 compared to what they actually ended up doing.
| Player | Pos | pZR | pUZR | pRAA | zRSAA | uRSAA | aRSAA | diff |
| Jorge Posada | C | -5 | -10 | -5 | ||||
| Jose Molina | C | 2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -4 | ||
| Francisco Cervelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Kevin Cash | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Mark Teixeira | 1B | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -4 | 2 | -1 |
| Juan Miranda | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robinson Cano | 2B | 2 | -2 | 0 | -2 | -5 | -3 | -4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 3B | -2 | -1 | -2 | -6 | -9 | -7 | -6 |
| Cody Ransom | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 |
| Angel Berroa | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -1 | -1 |
| Melky Cabrera | CF | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
| Brett Gardner | CF | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| Johnny Damon | LF | -1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -9 | -5 | -6 |
| Freddy Guzman | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Swisher | RF | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | -1 | -3 | -4 |
| Eric Hinske | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Xavier Nady | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Shelley Duncan | RF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Jeter | SS | -5 | -5 | -5 | -2 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| Ramiro Pena | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | -2 | -27 | -25 |
pZR: Projected runs saved above average according to zone rating, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pUZR: Projected runs saved above average according to UZR, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pRAA: Average of pZR and pUZR
zRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to zone rating
uRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to UZR
aRSAA: Average of zRSAA and uRSAA
diff: aRSAA - pRAA (negative means worse than projected)
The Yankee defense actually didn't play as well as projected, with the primary culprits being Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa's contributions also didn't really help. On the plus side, Derek Jeter was seven runs better than projected and Brett Gardner was two runs better.
Last year's team was about 40 runs below average, so at the very least they were better than that.
Interestingly, I completely forgot to do a season review for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, so I'll post that next, then Mo's and then that should wrap up the backwards-looking stuff for now.
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