Monday, November 16, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Derek Jeter
After finishing second in the AL MVP balloting in 2006, Derek Jeter proceeded to decline in 2007 and 2008, and thngs didn’t look great heading into 2009. Jeter shocked the world by rebounding to put up another MVP-caliber season at the advanced baseball of age of 35. Here’s a look at his projections entering 2009 compared to how he ended up doing.
| derek jeter | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | BR/650 | wOBA | -2 Std | -1 Std | +1 Std | +2 Std | % |
| 2009 chone projection | 716 | 644 | 189 | 32 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 64 | 106 | .294 | .366 | .415 | 86 | .339 | .301 | .320 | .358 | .377 | 90.5% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 716 | 637 | 193 | 33 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 59 | 104 | .303 | .355 | .428 | 86 | .333 | .295 | .314 | .351 | .370 | 88.8% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 716 | 639 | 184 | 30 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 59 | 100 | .288 | .350 | .383 | 77 | .319 | .282 | .301 | .338 | .357 | 85.3% |
| 2009 tht projection | 716 | 647 | 193 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 5 | 58 | 102 | .298 | .365 | .400 | 84 | .335 | .297 | .316 | .354 | .373 | 89.4% |
| 2009 zips projection | 716 | 645 | 195 | 32 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 60 | 104 | .302 | .371 | .421 | 88 | .344 | .306 | .325 | .363 | .382 | 91.8% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 716 | 635 | 192 | 33 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 61 | 104 | .303 | .370 | .427 | 89 | .343 | .305 | .324 | .362 | .381 | 91.5% |
| 2009 average projection | 716 | 641 | 191 | 33 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 5 | 60 | 103 | .298 | .363 | .412 | 85 | .335 | .298 | .316 | .354 | .373 | 89.6% |
| 2009 actuals | 716 | 634 | 212 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 30 | 5 | 72 | 90 | .334 | .404 | .465 | 104 | .374 | .336 | .355 | .394 | .413 |
BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)
Fangraphs has pulled their 2009 Bill James projections so I've removed them from the list. If anyone really wants them back and can provide them for me I'll consider adding them back, although I generally think they're not very good.
So, looking at Jeter's 2009, the bulk of the difference in his performance came in two areas, more singles and more HRs. His actual IsoD (isolated discipline, calculated as OBP - AVG) was just a hair higher than his projected IsoD (.069 to .065). He hit 7 more HRs than projected. With 13 of his 18 HRs coming at home, it's pretty clear he took special advantage of DNYS. Still, even his road line of .337/.399/.437 would have been far better than any of his projections.
Jeter was also able to steal more bases than projected, effectively stealing 15 more than projected on average without getting caught a single time more.
Although none of the projections were close, ZiPS was the closest if you go by wOBA, with CAIRO second. PECOTA was far and away the worst.
Jeter even played solid defense in 2009, coming in around +2 using an average of standard zone rating and UZR.
It was a great season for a great player, and a big part of the reason the Yankees won #27 this year.
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