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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett

Next up, a look at the Yankees’ top two starters.

In 2008 the Yankees had to give 43 starts to Darrell Rasner, Snacks Pontoon and Carl Pavano.  In addition to that, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were both awful.  Between that and Mike Mussina’s retirement, upgrading the starting pitching was the Yankees’ chief priority for 2009.  So they went out and signed the two best free agent starting pitchers on the market in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

We'll start things off with C.C.
c.c. sabathia IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR dERA dFIP
2009 chone projection 230 223 95 87 21 47 202 3.41 3.23 28 57 101.4% 95.6%
2009 marcel projection 230 211 88 78 20 55 217 3.07 3.13 37 65 91.3% 92.8%
2009 pecota projection 230 221 96 88 22 53 200 3.43 3.38 27 56 101.9% 100.1%
2009 tht projection 230 212 90 83 21 48 203 3.25 3.28 32 61 96.6% 97.1%
2009 zips projection 230 221 85 78 22 48 210 3.07 3.23 37 65 91.1% 95.5%
2009 cairo projection 230 223 99 89 21 61 200 3.48 3.44 26 55 103.4% 101.7%
2009 average projection 230 219 92 84 21 52 205 3.29 3.28 31 60 97.6% 97.1%
2009 actual 230 197 96 86 18 67 197 3.37 3.38 29 58


c.c. sabathia IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR dERA dFIP
2009 chone projection 211 205 87 80 19 43 185 3.41 3.23 26 52 101.4% 95.6%
2009 marcel projection 211 194 81 72 18 50 199 3.07 3.13 34 60 91.3% 92.8%
2009 pecota projection 231 222 96 88 22 53 201 3.43 3.38 27 56 101.9% 100.1%
2009 tht projection 214 197 83 77 20 45 189 3.25 3.28 30 56 96.6% 97.1%
2009 zips projection 223 214 82 76 21 47 204 3.07 3.23 36 63 91.1% 95.5%
2009 cairo projection 229 222 99 88 21 61 199 3.48 3.44 26 55 103.4% 101.7%
2009 average projection 220 209 88 80 20 50 196 3.29 3.28 30 57 97.6% 97.1%
2009 actual 230 197 96 86 18 67 197 3.37 3.38 29 58


FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

I've been having fun with PECOTA being bad in a lot of cases this year, so it should be noted that they pretty much nailed Sabathia's 2009. All the projections were pretty close though, as Sabathia effectively hit his average projection at 58 RSAR, or 5.8 WAR (wins above replacement).

Sabathia did his best pitching down the stretch. From August 8th through the end of the postseaon Sabathia threw 111 innings, allowing 82 hits and eight HRs whle walking 33 and striking out 115. He had an RA of 2.68, an ERA of 2.11 and a FIP of 3.17. In the postseason, he made five starts (two on three days rest), pitching 28 innings, striking out 32, with an RA of 2.23, ERA of 1.98, and a FIP of 3.94. The Yankees won four of those five starts en route to #27.

Signing a pitcher is always a risk, but at least in 2009 the Sabathia signing worked out about as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped.

Moving on to Burnett, here's how he projected compared to how he did.

a.j. burnett IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR dERA dFIP
2009 chone projection 207 198 97 89 20 78 203 3.88 3.61 14 40 96.0% 84.2%
2009 marcel projection 207 193 101 92 21 79 200 3.99 3.72 12 37 98.8% 86.8%
2009 pecota projection 207 197 96 88 20 77 187 3.82 3.73 16 42 94.4% 87.0%
2009 tht projection 207 193 96 89 21 77 194 3.85 3.76 15 41 95.2% 87.6%
2009 zips projection 207 199 99 91 23 76 197 3.97 3.86 12 38 98.2% 89.9%
2009 cairo projection 207 198 103 94 22 62 195 4.07 3.58 10 36 100.8% 83.4%
2009 average projection 207 196 99 90 21 75 196 3.93 3.71 13 39 97.2% 86.5%
2009 actual 207 193 99 93 25 97 195 4.04 4.29 11 36


a.j. burnett IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR dERA dFIP
2009 chone projection 167 160 78 72 16 63 164 3.88 3.61 12 32 96.0% 84.2%
2009 marcel projection 187 174 91 83 19 71 181 3.99 3.72 11 34 98.8% 86.8%
2009 pecota projection 197 187 92 84 19 73 178 3.82 3.73 15 40 94.4% 87.0%
2009 tht projection 188 175 87 80 19 70 176 3.85 3.76 14 37 95.2% 87.6%
2009 zips projection 179 172 85 79 20 66 170 3.97 3.86 11 33 98.2% 89.9%
2009 cairo projection 192 183 95 87 20 58 180 4.07 3.58 9 33 100.8% 83.4%
2009 average projection 185 175 88 81 19 67 175 3.93 3.71 12 35 97.2% 86.5%
2009 actual 207 193 99 93 25 97 195 4.04 4.29 11 36


On a rate basis, Burnett's projections were all fairly close to what he ended up doing in terms of value. However, Burnett's peripherals were worse. Well, actually the big issue was the spike in walks, everything else was about right.

In the postseason, Burnett made five starts. While his overall postseason ERA of 5.27 was not very good, in terms of the starts, two of them were really bad (a combined 13.50 ERA in ALCS Game 5 and WS Game 5), but three were really good (1.86 ERA in Game 2 of the ALDS, Game 2 of the ALCS, and Game 2 of the World Series).

A lot of people hated the Burnett signing because of his injury history and they may be vindicated some time over the next four seasons, but in 2009 he was able to make every start and was worth his contract. Burnett also provided walkoff pies to the face, which was a fun thing to watch.

The Yankees and their fans should be happy with how both guys performed overall this year.
--Posted at 7:32 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (110)


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