Thursday, November 19, 2009
2009 Yankees Season in Review: Andy Pettitte
Coming off a 2008 season where he faded badly down the stretch, there was some question about whether or not the Yankees should bring back Andy Pettitte. This was confirmed in the offseason as both the Yankees and Pettitte seemed less than committed to a reunion. When the Yankees pulled a contract offer to Pettitte for around $10 million off the table after inking Mark Teixeira to go along with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett, it certainly seemed like Pettitte’s days as a Yankee were over.
After a little more time, the Yanks and Pettitte were able to agree to a contract that would have a low base but with a chance to earn more than the original offer if he met all the incentives. As it turned out, this worked out well for both sides.
Here’s a look at Pettitte’s projections vs. actuals in 2009.
| andy pettitte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 195 | 216 | 101 | 93 | 17 | 63 | 146 | 4.31 | 3.84 | 4 | 28 | 103.6% | 91.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 195 | 219 | 103 | 95 | 19 | 62 | 140 | 4.38 | 3.99 | 3 | 27 | 105.2% | 95.2% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 195 | 216 | 104 | 95 | 19 | 61 | 138 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 2 | 26 | 105.9% | 96.0% |
| 2009 tht projection | 195 | 213 | 100 | 92 | 20 | 59 | 135 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 5 | 29 | 102.6% | 96.6% |
| 2009 zips projection | 195 | 219 | 104 | 96 | 19 | 61 | 138 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 1 | 26 | 106.5% | 95.3% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 195 | 215 | 106 | 96 | 20 | 59 | 139 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 1 | 26 | 106.9% | 95.2% |
| 2009 average projection | 195 | 216 | 103 | 95 | 19 | 61 | 139 | 4.37 | 3.98 | 3 | 27 | 105.1% | 95.0% |
| 2009 actual | 195 | 193 | 101 | 90 | 20 | 76 | 148 | 4.16 | 4.19 | 7 | 32 |
*Projections have all been pro-rated to actual 2009 innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)
The first thing that sticks out in my mind is how similar all those projections were. The range of ERAs was 4.27-4.45, the range of FIPs was 3.84-4.04, and the ranges on the peripherals were all really close. The Hardball Times ends up being the closest, although the margin is pretty small.
In terms of his actuals, Pettitte's HRs were right around his average projection, but he allowed a lot fewer hits than expected, while walking more and striking out more hitters. He ended up being about 5 runs better than projected, or about a half win better.
Pettitte was even better in the postseason, pitching 30.2 innings with an ERA of 3.52, and starting all three series clinching games for the Yankees.
I think the Yankees should and probably will bring Pettitte back for one more year. They'll probably have to pay him a little bit more than they did this year, although it would be cool if they can work out a base + incentives deal similar to 2009's, maybe with a bit higher base and a bit more reachable in incentives. Pettitte should be a pretty good risk to provide 180+ innings of at least league average pitching again in 2010. That's not really exciting, but if you're going to try and develop some young pitching it'd be kind of nice to have Ol' Battle Cat around as contingency.
Update: Here are the original projections for Pettitte without pro-rating the innings to actual 2009.
| andy pettitte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | dERA | dFIP |
| 2009 chone projection | 167 | 185 | 87 | 80 | 15 | 54 | 125 | 4.31 | 3.84 | 4 | 24 | 103.6% | 91.7% |
| 2009 marcel projection | 183 | 206 | 97 | 89 | 18 | 58 | 132 | 4.38 | 3.99 | 3 | 25 | 105.2% | 95.2% |
| 2009 pecota projection | 168 | 187 | 90 | 82 | 17 | 53 | 119 | 4.41 | 4.02 | 2 | 23 | 105.9% | 96.0% |
| 2009 tht projection | 187 | 205 | 96 | 89 | 19 | 57 | 130 | 4.27 | 4.04 | 5 | 28 | 102.6% | 96.6% |
| 2009 zips projection | 195 | 219 | 104 | 96 | 19 | 61 | 138 | 4.43 | 3.99 | 1 | 26 | 106.5% | 95.3% |
| 2009 cairo projection | 210 | 232 | 114 | 104 | 21 | 64 | 150 | 4.45 | 3.98 | 1 | 28 | 106.9% | 95.2% |
| 2009 average projection | 185 | 206 | 98 | 90 | 18 | 58 | 132 | 4.37 | 3.98 | 3 | 26 | 105.1% | 95.0% |
| 2009 YTD | 195 | 193 | 101 | 90 | 20 | 76 | 148 | 4.16 | 4.19 | 7 | 32 |
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