Wednesday, November 4, 2009
2009 World Series Odds before Game 6
Hopefully this will be the last time these need to be posted this season. When we last visited these odds after Game 4, the Yankees' probability of winning the World Series was 92.1%.Here are the revised team strengths for the last two potential games of the season.
| #games | 2 |
| home games | 2 |
| #outs | 50 |
| offense | 11.8 |
| pitching | 8.0 |
| defense | 0.1 |
| wpct | .700 |
| 162 gm equiv | 113-49 |
#outs: 25 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season
| #games | 2 |
| home games | 0 |
| #outs | 50 |
| offense | 11.1 |
| pitching | 8.9 |
| defense | 0.3 |
| wpct | .603 |
| 162 gm equiv | 98-64 |
The assumption here is that Cole Hamels would pitch a Game 7. Since his projection is better than anyone but Cliff Lee's on the Phillies staff, if anyone else pitches Game 7 or if 2009 postseason Hamels shows up in lieu of projected Hamels, then it's a bigger edge to the Yankees.
World Series Winning Odds
Yankees: 83.9%
Phillies: 16.1%
I know it doesn't feel like the Yankees should be so heavily favored, at least it doesn't feel like it to me, but even if we assumed that both games were a coin flip, the odds of the Phillies coming up heads twice are only 25%. Factor in the fact that the Yankees are the better team, are at home, and at least on virtual paper have the pitching edge in both games, and yeah, 84% is what I get.
Of course, that doesn't mean the Phillies can't win the next two games, because they could. Man, would that suck.
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