Monday, November 2, 2009
2009 World Series Odds after Game 4
Game 4's over and done with, so here are my updated playoff odds. First, I'll again present the updated team numbers for the remaining games. As far as what's changed since Game 3, the primary thing (aside from # of games and HFA) is the Yankees lose a CC Sabathia start and an inning of Mo, although with only three games left the bullpen innings are concentrated amongst their best options. I've also swapped Brett Gardner in for Melky. For the Phillies, I've removed Joe Blanton's innings and some of the middle relievers.
| #games | 3 |
| home games | 2 |
| #outs | 75 |
| offense | 17.4 |
| pitching | 12.0 |
| defense | 0.0 |
| wpct | .678 |
| 162 gm equiv | 110-52 |
| #games | 3 |
| home games | 1 |
| #outs | 75 |
| offense | 16.5 |
| pitching | 13.2 |
| defense | 0.5 |
| wpct | .615 |
| 162 gm equiv | 100-62 |
#outs: 25 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season
World Series Winning Odds
Yankees: 92.10%
Phillies: 7.90%
Angels: 0.00%
Cardinals: 0.00%
Dodgers: 0.00%
Red Sox: 0.00%
Rockies: 0.00%
Twins: 0.00%
I just got off the phone with Jimmy Rollins, and we've decided to amend our prediction to Phillies in seven. He also asked me to convey that they are being extra nice which is why they are allowing the Yankees to extend it to seven. Oh, and he has figured out Mo, but he's saving it for when it really matters
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