Wednesday, October 7, 2009
2009 NLDS Preview: Rockies vs. Phillies
Since I have the numbers I used to look at the Twins, Tigers and Yankees for all the playoff teams, I figured I’d throw them up for anyone who’s curious. First up, the Rockies vs. the Phillies.
Phillies| Lineup | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | pwOBA | 09wOBA | Diff | BR | Outs | dRS |
| jimmy rollins | ss | 23 | .274 | .330 | .452 | .338 | .309 | -.029 | 3 | 15 | 3 |
| shane victorino | cf | 22 | .291 | .352 | .437 | .346 | .350 | .004 | 3 | 14 | -1 |
| chase utley | 2b | 22 | .299 | .393 | .519 | .395 | .394 | -.001 | 4 | 13 | 11 |
| ryan howard | 1b | 21 | .280 | .376 | .567 | .399 | .391 | -.008 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| raul ibanez | lf | 21 | .294 | .362 | .513 | .375 | .378 | .003 | 3 | 13 | -5 |
| jayson werth | rf | 20 | .273 | .374 | .481 | .372 | .378 | .006 | 3 | 13 | 6 |
| pedro feliz | 3b | 19 | .260 | .303 | .410 | .310 | .304 | -.006 | 2 | 13 | 10 |
| carlos ruiz | c | 19 | .256 | .342 | .395 | .328 | .341 | .014 | 2 | 12 | 2 |
| greg dobbs | 3b | 10 | .283 | .333 | .433 | .334 | .296 | -.037 | 1 | 7 | -3 |
| matt stairs | lf | 10 | .257 | .347 | .439 | .344 | .336 | -.008 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| paul bako | c | 4 | .222 | .301 | .311 | .279 | .292 | .013 | 0 | 3 | -1 |
| ben francisco | cf | 1 | .258 | .326 | .424 | .328 | .330 | .002 | 0 | 1 | -8 |
| eric bruntlett | 2b | 1 | .231 | .307 | .313 | .282 | .207 | -.075 | 0 | 1 | -6 |
| miguel cairo | 2b | 0 | .241 | .292 | .335 | .278 | .296 | .018 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| total | 193 | .279 | .352 | .467 | 28 | 125 | 1 |
The Phillies have a solid lineup, with Chase Utley as probably their best all around player. In fact, you can make a case that Utley was the second most valuable player in the NL after Albert Pujols. Although they have a fairly minor platoon split this year (.248/.335/.452 vs. LHP compared to .262/.334/.445 vs. RHP), Ryan Howard is very susceptible to lefties with a career split of (.207/.298/.356 vs. LHP compared to .319/.395/.691 vs. RHP). The Rockies have Franklin Morales, Randy Flores and Alan Embree as lefties in the pen, which may help them when faced with Howard in a high leverage situation.
The Phils' defense is a bit above average overa all, with Utley and Pedro Feliz both amongst the best at their positions in baseball.
On the pitching side, the Phils have only announced the Games 1 and 2 starters, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. They are planning on having Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Pedro Martinez in the pen for Games 1 and 2, so I have no idea who may start games 3 and 4, For now I'll assume it's Blanton and Pedro, with Lee going in Game 5 if necessary.
| Pitcher | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | pRA | pERA | pFIP | 09ERA | 09FIP | sIP | sR |
| cliff lee | SP1 | 180 | 189 | 16 | 54 | 126 | 4.02 | 3.75 | 3.87 | 3.14 | 3.30 | 12 | 5.4 |
| cole hamels | SP2 | 187 | 179 | 24 | 49 | 169 | 4.27 | 4.00 | 3.84 | 4.32 | 3.74 | 6 | 2.8 |
| joe blanton | SP3 | 202 | 210 | 25 | 61 | 140 | 4.45 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.06 | 4.43 | 6 | 3.0 |
| pedro martinez | SP4 | 93 | 90 | 12 | 31 | 79 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.25 | 3.62 | 4.12 | 5 | 2.6 |
| brad lidge | CL | 67 | 64 | 9 | 32 | 79 | 5.24 | 4.77 | 3.94 | 7.21 | 5.30 | 3 | 1.7 |
| ryan madson | SU | 84 | 86 | 8 | 27 | 71 | 4.30 | 4.07 | 3.76 | 3.26 | 3.21 | 3 | 1.4 |
| brett myers | SU | 97 | 84 | 10 | 33 | 97 | 3.88 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 4.84 | 6.07 | 3 | 1.3 |
| j.a. happ | MR | 122 | 114 | 13 | 47 | 100 | 3.85 | 3.72 | 4.09 | 2.93 | 4.34 | 3 | 1.3 |
| jack taschner | MR | 48 | 54 | 5 | 21 | 38 | 5.46 | 5.01 | 4.31 | 4.91 | 5.28 | 2 | 1.2 |
| chad durbin | MR | 109 | 109 | 16 | 44 | 71 | 5.27 | 4.87 | 5.03 | 4.39 | 4.94 | 1 | 0.6 |
| scott eyre | MR | 44 | 42 | 5 | 20 | 40 | 4.09 | 3.79 | 4.07 | 1.50 | 4.63 | 1 | 0.5 |
| paul byrd | LR | 134 | 159 | 20 | 31 | 64 | 5.41 | 4.93 | 4.87 | 5.82 | 5.05 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 45 | 45 | 5 | 15 | 37 | 4.35 | 4.08 | 4.01 | 21.7 |
Obviously, the big question facing the Phillies is the closer role. Brad Lidge has had a brutal season after having a great one. While his projection is reasonable, there may be a physical reason that he was so bad this year that the projections wouldn't pick up. Ryan Madson and Brett Myers should give them the possibility of dealing with an ineffective Lidge, but their bullpen is probably their biggest Achille's heel right now.
Add it all up, and here's how the Phils look overall.
| #games | 5 |
| home games | 3 |
| #outs | 125 |
| offense | 27.6 |
| pitching | 21.7 |
| defense | 0.8 |
| wpct | .634 |
| 162 gm equiv | 103-59 |
Rockies
| Lineup | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | pwOBA | 09wOBA | Diff | BR | Outs | dRS |
| carlos gonzalez | cf | 23 | .265 | .318 | .435 | .327 | .367 | .040 | 3 | 16 | 3 |
| seth smith | lf | 22 | .304 | .376 | .489 | .376 | .382 | .006 | 3 | 14 | 12 |
| todd helton | 1b | 22 | .309 | .414 | .467 | .390 | .396 | .006 | 4 | 13 | 2 |
| troy tulowitzki | ss | 21 | .291 | .367 | .483 | .369 | .393 | .024 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| brad hawpe | rf | 21 | .288 | .387 | .495 | .384 | .389 | .005 | 3 | 13 | -18 |
| yorvit torrealba | c | 20 | .267 | .323 | .387 | .313 | .323 | .010 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| ian stewart | 3b | 19 | .262 | .345 | .465 | .352 | .337 | -.014 | 3 | 12 | 4 |
| clint barmes | 2b | 19 | .263 | .305 | .419 | .312 | .311 | -.001 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
| dexter fowler | cf | 9 | .271 | .355 | .392 | .334 | .334 | .000 | 1 | 6 | -9 |
| garrett atkins | 3b | 9 | .288 | .355 | .444 | .350 | .293 | -.056 | 1 | 6 | -5 |
| chris iannetta | c | 4 | .265 | .375 | .464 | .368 | .347 | -.021 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| ryan spilborghs | rf | 2 | .288 | .360 | .436 | .350 | .308 | -.042 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| omar quintanilla | ss | 2 | .270 | .330 | .370 | .312 | .224 | -.088 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| matt murton | lf | 1 | .265 | .332 | .395 | .323 | .309 | -.014 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| total | 194 | .280 | .354 | .448 | 27 | 125 | 0 |
PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.
Carlos Gonzalez had a pretty good year in 2009 although his projection thinks he was playing over his head. Seth Smith had a very good year offensively and defensively and deserves to be one of the better candidates in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting. Although he's lost his power, Todd Helton is still probably the best offensive player on the Rockies, and Troy Tulowitzki is also a solid offensive and defensive contributor. Brad Hawpe can hit, but he can't field. Chris Iannetta seems like the better hitting catcher on the roster, but for whatever reason the Rockies seem to prefer playing Yorvit Torrealba.
Defensively, they look to be about a touch above average, with Hawpe canceling out a lot of the good from Smith and the infield.
And the pitching...
| Pitcher | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | pRA | pERA | pFIP | 09ERA | 09FIP | sIP | sR |
| ubaldo jimenez | SP1 | 193 | 187 | 18 | 83 | 156 | 4.98 | 4.67 | 4.05 | 3.47 | 3.33 | 12 | 6.6 |
| aaron cook | SP2 | 194 | 225 | 17 | 43 | 88 | 4.98 | 4.61 | 4.08 | 4.16 | 4.67 | 6 | 3.3 |
| jason marquis | SP3 | 196 | 209 | 21 | 79 | 106 | 5.38 | 5.00 | 4.70 | 4.04 | 4.15 | 6 | 3.6 |
| jorge de la rosa | SP4 | 151 | 155 | 18 | 62 | 138 | 5.29 | 4.98 | 4.17 | 4.38 | 3.86 | 5 | 2.9 |
| huston street | CL | 65 | 53 | 6 | 19 | 72 | 3.56 | 3.34 | 3.15 | 3.06 | 3.04 | 3 | 1.2 |
| rafael betancourt | SU | 57 | 50 | 6 | 19 | 53 | 3.88 | 3.60 | 3.82 | 3.52 | 3.85 | 3 | 1.3 |
| franklin morales | SU | 106 | 118 | 15 | 41 | 72 | 6.30 | 5.96 | 4.79 | 4.50 | 4.18 | 3 | 2.1 |
| matt daley | MR | 67 | 74 | 10 | 14 | 49 | 5.41 | 5.19 | 4.32 | 4.24 | 3.63 | 3 | 1.8 |
| alan embree | MR | 49 | 53 | 6 | 19 | 39 | 5.28 | 4.93 | 4.29 | 5.83 | 5.26 | 2 | 1.2 |
| josh fogg | MR | 115 | 124 | 18 | 35 | 64 | 6.03 | 5.59 | 5.00 | 3.74 | 5.32 | 1 | 0.7 |
| jose contreras | MR | 151 | 139 | 11 | 63 | 117 | 4.60 | 4.08 | 3.86 | 5.41 | 4.07 | 1 | 0.5 |
| randy flores | LR | 37 | 43 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 5.40 | 4.85 | 3.86 | 5.25 | 3.53 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 45 | 46 | 5 | 16 | 33 | 5.05 | 4.72 | 4.17 | 25.2 |
pRA: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
pERA: Projected earned runs allowed per nine innings
pFIP: Projected Fielding independent pitching
sIP: Estimated innings in the series
sR: Estimated runs allowed in the series based on revised projection and sIP
Obviously the pitching projections are skewed by Coors field, but Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook are solid at the top. Jason Marquis had a very good year, but it was way out of character from his past history and CAIRO ain't buying it.
Huston Street and Rafael Betancourt are a good closer and setup man combination, but the rest of the pen isn't particularly awe-inspiring.
In summary:
| #games | 5 |
| home games | 2 |
| #outs | 125 |
| offense | 26.9 |
| pitching | 24.8 |
| defense | 0.2 |
| wpct | .539 |
| 162 gm equiv | 87-75 |
#outs: 27 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching and defense for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season
And running the Phils and Rockies through the Monte Carlo Simulator yields the following odds of advancing past the first round.
Phillies: 67.0%
Rockies: 33.0%
Of course anything can happen in a short series.
Page 1 of 1 pages: