Wednesday, October 14, 2009
2009 NLCS Preview: Dodgers vs. Phillies
Two teams enter. One team will win. The winning team will be able to claim themselves the best team in the National League, which is akin to being the most insightful Baseball Tonight anchor, or the best trade made by the Twins’ Bill Smith.
Who will the Angels be facing in the World Series? Let's see what the numbers think... The idea behind this preview is the same as these DS previews.Yankees
Twins
Red Sox/Angels
Phillies/Rockies
Dodgers/Cardinals
Instead of just looking at 2009 data and using whatever the teams did over the course of 2009 as an estimate of team talent, I feel it's far more instructive to use revised projections that incorporate past data and to make sure we are only looking at the rosters as presently constituted.
The projections that I'm using here are not any different than the projections I used in the NLDS preview. The only difference is I've adjusted the number of games to 7 and adjusted playing time estimates.
Phillies
The Phillies are the only one of the four Championship Series teams to lose a game in the Divisional Series. They should be ashamed of themselves.
The projections are the same as they were for the DS,
First up, the position players.
| Lineup | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | pwOBA | 09wOBA | Diff | BR | Outs | dRS |
| jimmy rollins | ss | 34 | .274 | .330 | .452 | .338 | .309 | -.029 | 5 | 23 | 3 |
| shane victorino | cf | 33 | .291 | .352 | .437 | .346 | .350 | .004 | 5 | 21 | -1 |
| chase utley | 2b | 33 | .299 | .393 | .519 | .395 | .394 | -.001 | 6 | 20 | 11 |
| ryan howard | 1b | 32 | .280 | .376 | .567 | .399 | .391 | -.008 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| jayson werth | rf | 31 | .273 | .374 | .481 | .372 | .378 | .006 | 5 | 19 | 6 |
| raul ibanez | rf | 30 | .294 | .362 | .513 | .375 | .378 | .003 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| pedro feliz | 3b | 29 | .260 | .303 | .410 | .310 | .304 | -.006 | 3 | 20 | 10 |
| carlos ruiz | c | 25 | .256 | .342 | .395 | .328 | .341 | .014 | 3 | 16 | 2 |
| greg dobbs | 3b | 7 | .283 | .333 | .433 | .334 | .296 | -.037 | 1 | 5 | -3 |
| matt stairs | lf | 7 | .257 | .347 | .439 | .344 | .336 | -.008 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| paul bako | c | 3 | .222 | .301 | .311 | .279 | .292 | .013 | 0 | 2 | -1 |
| ben francisco | cf | 2 | .258 | .326 | .424 | .328 | .330 | .002 | 0 | 1 | -8 |
| eric bruntlett | 2b | 2 | .231 | .307 | .313 | .282 | .207 | -.075 | 0 | 1 | -6 |
| miguel cairo | 2b | 2 | .241 | .292 | .335 | .278 | .296 | .018 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| total | 270 | .279 | .352 | .467 | .355 | .352 | -.004 | 39 | 175 | 1 |
PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.
Chase Utley(.429/.556/.643) and Jayson Werth(.357/.500/.929) were the Key offensive players in the NLDS. Although Ryan Howard has the highest projected wOBA in the Phils' lineup, the Dodgers are going to likely to have at least four lefties on their NLCS roster (starters Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, relievers Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill). In any situations where Howard is facing one of those pitchers, we should expect him to perform significantly worse than that projection. I don't see the Phillies benching Howard against Wolf or Kershaw, so that means they probably need Werth to have a big series. Utley has generally done pretty well against lefties. He actually has a higher OBP in his career, although he loses some power. In his career, Ibanez has been about .090 OPS points worse against lefties, although he did hit them better than righties this year.
Defensively, the Phils look strong, with Utley and Pedro Feliz as the standouts.
Taking a look at the pitching staff...
| Pitcher | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | pRA | pERA | pFIP | 09ERA | 09FIP | sIP | sR |
| cole hamels | SP1 | 187 | 179 | 24 | 49 | 169 | 4.27 | 4.00 | 3.84 | 4.32 | 3.74 | 12 | 5.7 |
| joe blanton | SP2 | 202 | 210 | 25 | 61 | 140 | 4.45 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.06 | 4.43 | 5 | 2.5 |
| cliff lee | SP3 | 180 | 189 | 16 | 54 | 126 | 4.02 | 3.75 | 3.87 | 3.14 | 3.30 | 12 | 5.4 |
| pedro martinez | SP4 | 93 | 90 | 12 | 31 | 79 | 4.60 | 4.36 | 4.25 | 3.62 | 4.12 | 5 | 2.6 |
| brad lidge | CL | 67 | 64 | 9 | 32 | 79 | 5.24 | 4.77 | 3.94 | 7.21 | 5.30 | 4 | 2.3 |
| ryan madson | SU | 84 | 86 | 8 | 27 | 71 | 4.30 | 4.07 | 3.76 | 3.26 | 3.21 | 4 | 1.9 |
| brett myers | SU | 97 | 84 | 10 | 33 | 97 | 3.88 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 4.84 | 6.07 | 4 | 1.7 |
| j.a. happ | MR | 122 | 114 | 13 | 47 | 100 | 3.85 | 3.72 | 4.09 | 2.93 | 4.34 | 3 | 1.3 |
| jack taschner | MR | 48 | 54 | 5 | 21 | 38 | 5.46 | 5.01 | 4.31 | 4.91 | 5.28 | 3 | 1.8 |
| chad durbin | MR | 109 | 109 | 16 | 44 | 71 | 5.27 | 4.87 | 5.03 | 4.39 | 4.94 | 2 | 1.2 |
| scott eyre | MR | 44 | 42 | 5 | 20 | 40 | 4.09 | 3.79 | 4.07 | 1.50 | 4.63 | 3 | 1.4 |
| joe blanton | LR | 202 | 210 | 25 | 61 | 140 | 4.45 | 4.24 | 4.29 | 4.06 | 4.43 | 6 | 3.0 |
| Total | 63 | 57 | 6 | 19 | 48 | 3.95 | 3.70 | 3.92 | 30.6 |
pRA: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
pERA: Projected earned runs allowed per nine innings
pFIP: Projected Fielding independent pitching
sIP: Estimated innings in the series
sR: Estimated runs allowed in the series based on revised projection and sIP
All we know for certain is that Cole Hamels is scheduled for Game 1 and Cliff Lee will start Game 3. The assumption here is that they will both pitch twice. That leaves three games to be started by some combination of Joe Blanton, Pedro Martinez and J.A. Happ. So I am giving them each five innings, assuming that if one of them isn't starting he'll pitch relief.
As far as the bullpen, I'm just going to spread the load around to get the Phils to 63 innings pitched. It looks like they're back to Brad Lidge as closer, with Ryan Madson getting the all-important 8th.
Add up the offense, defense and pitching, and here's what you get:
| #games | 7 |
| home games | 3 |
| #outs | 175 |
| offense | 39.0 |
| pitching | 30.6 |
| defense | 1.5 |
| wpct | .633 |
| 162 gm equiv | 102-60 |
#outs: 27 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching and defense for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season
Seems about right to me.
Dodgers
One of the stories that hasn't gotten enough play is about the Dodgers' manager facing the team he used to work for if circumstances allow both teams to advance to World Series. Joe Torre will be trying to lead his team into the World Series to face the Angels, for whom he worked as a broadcaster.
The Dodgers had the best record in the National League, and vanquished a very good St. Louis team in three games. Here's how they shape up in the NLCS, starting with the position players.
| Lineup | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | pwOBA | 09wOBA | Diff | BR | Outs | dRS |
| rafael furcal | ss | 35 | .282 | .349 | .408 | .335 | .317 | -.019 | 4 | 23 | 2 |
| orlando hudson | 2b | 34 | .293 | .362 | .428 | .348 | .338 | -.010 | 5 | 22 | -1 |
| manny ramirez | lf | 33 | .303 | .418 | .549 | .417 | .411 | -.006 | 6 | 19 | -14 |
| matt kemp | cf | 32 | .301 | .355 | .493 | .365 | .362 | -.003 | 5 | 21 | 2 |
| james loney | 1b | 31 | .293 | .355 | .443 | .350 | .337 | -.013 | 4 | 20 | -2 |
| andre ethier | rf | 31 | .292 | .371 | .507 | .378 | .373 | -.005 | 5 | 19 | -2 |
| russell martin | c | 30 | .278 | .375 | .406 | .351 | .315 | -.036 | 4 | 19 | -2 |
| casey blake | 3b | 25 | .271 | .345 | .459 | .348 | .360 | .012 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| juan pierre | cf | 7 | .297 | .340 | .378 | .319 | .333 | .014 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| ronnie belliard | 2b | 7 | .291 | .344 | .454 | .346 | .436 | .089 | 1 | 5 | -1 |
| jim thome | 1b | 7 | .253 | .372 | .476 | .368 | .374 | .005 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| brad ausmus | c | 1 | .239 | .309 | .313 | .283 | .306 | .023 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| juan castro | ss | 1 | .241 | .280 | .328 | .269 | .286 | .017 | 0 | 1 | -4 |
| mark loretta | 2b | 1 | .273 | .346 | .349 | .316 | .273 | -.043 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
| total | 275 | .290 | .363 | .452 | .360 | .353 | -.007 | 40 | 175 | -1 |
The Dodgers' lineup actually has a higher projected wOBA than the Phillies, although their defense looks worse. One thing that will bear watching is how the Dodgers use Andre Ethier against Hamels and Lee. In his career, Ethier has hit .253/.317/.382 vs. LHP compared to .305/.377/.538 vs. RHP. They don't have a ton of options to platoon Ethier with as far as I can tell, although maybe Juan Pierre gets a look.
As far as the pitching goes...
| Pitcher | Role | IP | H | HR | BB | K | pRA | pERA | pFIP | 09ERA | 09FIP | sIP | sR |
| clayton kershaw | SP1 | 159 | 140 | 13 | 74 | 150 | 4.07 | 3.91 | 3.75 | 2.79 | 3.16 | 12 | 5.4 |
| randy wolf | SP2 | 164 | 157 | 20 | 56 | 128 | 4.37 | 4.11 | 4.24 | 3.23 | 3.97 | 12 | 5.8 |
| vicente padilla | SP3 | 147 | 162 | 19 | 52 | 95 | 5.61 | 5.18 | 4.68 | 4.92 | 4.72 | 5 | 3.1 |
| hiroki kuroda | SP4 | 163 | 161 | 14 | 45 | 109 | 4.50 | 3.97 | 3.84 | 3.76 | 3.66 | 5 | 2.5 |
| jonathan broxton | CL | 79 | 61 | 5 | 33 | 101 | 3.52 | 3.13 | 2.69 | 2.61 | 2.03 | 5 | 2.0 |
| george sherrill | SU | 47 | 40 | 4 | 24 | 47 | 3.59 | 3.53 | 3.85 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 4 | 1.6 |
| ramon troncoso | SU | 73 | 81 | 4 | 23 | 48 | 4.30 | 3.93 | 3.60 | 2.72 | 3.57 | 3 | 1.4 |
| ronald belisario | MR | 62 | 69 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 5.44 | 4.92 | 4.42 | 2.04 | 3.36 | 3 | 1.8 |
| guillermo mota | MR | 64 | 52 | 5 | 25 | 55 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.71 | 3.45 | 4.30 | 3 | 1.2 |
| hong-chih kuo | MR | 60 | 54 | 5 | 26 | 63 | 3.93 | 3.73 | 3.49 | 3.00 | 3.23 | 2 | 0.9 |
| chad billingsley | MR | 181 | 168 | 17 | 88 | 162 | 4.26 | 3.99 | 4.06 | 4.03 | 3.82 | 5 | 2.4 |
| jeff weaver | LR | 119 | 137 | 19 | 35 | 77 | 5.63 | 5.30 | 4.88 | 3.65 | 3.98 | 4 | 2.5 |
| Total | 63 | 55 | 6 | 23 | 51 | 4.01 | 3.75 | 3.85 | 30.6 |
It looks like the Dodgers will be starting Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 and Randy Wolf in Game 2. They are also rumored to be activating Hiroki Kuroda with an eye on starting him in Game 4. Although Vicente Padilla is penciled in as the third starter and would conceivably pitch a game 7, because his projection is pretty bad I restricted him to one start and game those innings to Chad Billinsgsley who will likely be in the pen.
The Dodgers's pen is pretty good, and as mentioned with the Phillies, having Sherrill and Kuo around will help them in trying to neutralize Ryan Howard in any crucial situations.
Adding up the Dodger's offense, defense and pitching looks like this:
| #games | 7 |
| home games | 4 |
| #outs | 175 |
| offense | 39.5 |
| pitching | 30.6 |
| defense | -0.8 |
| wpct | .613 |
| 162 gm equiv | 99-63 |
So you've got a 99 win team with a one game home field advantage vs. a 102 win team with a one game home field disadvantage. If they played each other in a seven game series 10,000 times, here are the probabilities of advancing according to my Monte Carlo simulator
Phillies: 54.3%
Dodgers: 45.7%
Red Sox: 0%
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