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Way back in the 20th century, Bill James wrote the first essential book about baseball managers. Chris Jaffe has just written the second.
- Rob Neyer, ESPN.com

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Player

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- cordially, as always,
rm

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"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
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- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

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Monday, March 30, 2009

2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Hardball Times edition

Below are are the results of the Hardball Times’ 2009 projections when run through Diamond Mind Baseball 1000 times.

To read all the caveats and disclaimers that you should keep in mind when looking at these, check the main post.

Standings

AL East W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
NYA 98.2 63.8 860 694 552.3 272.7 92-104 820-901 657-731 98 98 577 277 141 5 0 0 101 97-106
BOS 95.1 66.9 832 689 299.8 385.0 89-101 791-874 654-724 95 95 320 396 266 18 0 0 95 91-99
TAM 91.5 70.5 792 683 146.8 299.2 85-98 752-831 647-718 91 91 163 304 470 55 8 0 89 85-93
TOR 75.6 86.4 701 752 1.0 11.0 69-82 664-738 715-790 76 75 1 10 54 527 408 0 78 74-83
BAL 74.2 87.8 789 861 0.0 7.7 68-80 750-828 819-903 74 73 0 7 39 408 546 0 71 66-76
AL Central W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
CLE 83.6 78.4 805 771 473.2 6.2 77-90 765-845 733-808 84 82 495 254 151 67 33 0 87 83-92
DET 80.7 81.3 791 788 262.2 1.5 74-87 752-829 750-826 81 78 282 284 209 145 80 0 82 79-85
MIN 77.8 84.2 728 764 153.3 4.3 72-84 692-765 726-802 78 78 166 220 227 237 150 0 78 75-81
KC 75.4 86.6 741 799 62.5 0.5 69-82 704-778 758-839 75 75 71 167 233 280 249 0 74 71-78
CHA 73.2 88.8 764 856 48.8 1.0 67-80 725-803 817-896 73 74 54 102 188 254 402 0 69 65-73
AL West W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
LAA 84.0 78.0 796 768 474.2 4.0 78-90 756-836 729-807 84 85 499 282 169 50 0 0 88 83-92
OAK 82.1 79.9 770 742 316.3 2.0 76-88 731-809 705-778 82 82 333 371 230 66 0 0 82 78-86
SEA 78.1 83.9 717 741 168.2 5.0 72-85 678-755 703-779 78 77 182 241 353 224 0 0 77 73-81
TEX 72.7 89.3 800 900 42.3 0.0 66-79 761-839 858-942 73 74 47 115 243 595 0 0 70 65-75
Avg WC 94.6
NL East W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
NYN 89.5 72.5 822 743 485.2 142.8 83-96 782-862 706-781 90 91 509 310 152 28 1 0 93 88-98
ATL 86.5 75.6 752 700 278.7 140.8 80-93 716-789 664-737 86 88 299 353 298 44 6 0 87 83-91
PHI 85.1 76.9 804 771 228.2 135.4 79-92 765-844 733-808 85 90 250 318 355 63 14 0 82 78-86
FLA 72.3 89.7 738 819 7.5 5.2 66-79 701-775 779-858 72 72 8 24 124 547 297 0 74 69-78
WAS 68.6 93.4 741 861 1.5 0.5 62-75 704-779 820-902 68 65 2 8 45 313 632 0 66 61-71
NL Central W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
CHN 90.9 71.1 816 720 635.3 102.7 85-97 778-855 682-758 91 90 657 212 92 28 9 2 93 88-98
MIL 83.3 78.7 787 764 149.3 113.1 77-90 749-826 725-802 83 82 162 291 232 153 106 56 87 83-90
STL 83.2 78.8 765 743 136.7 116.5 77-90 726-803 705-780 83 83 151 296 246 160 102 45 83 79-86
CIN 78.1 83.9 735 763 37.8 37.2 72-84 697-773 725-801 78 75 41 127 189 246 220 177 79 76-82
HOU 77.1 84.9 743 778 29.8 28.3 71-83 706-780 738-819 77 75 33 104 141 255 279 188 75 71-78
PIT 72.9 89.1 722 800 11.0 8.3 66-79 684-760 760-841 73 71 12 40 75 167 250 456 70 65-74
NL West W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
ARI 84.9 77.1 732 704 390.3 53.2 78-91 695-768 667-741 85 84 415 280 169 98 38 0 90 85-94
LAN 84.4 77.6 797 767 377.8 57.0 78-91 758-835 727-807 85 85 401 273 171 105 50 0 84 81-88
SF 78.3 83.7 684 704 108.3 22.5 72-85 648-720 667-740 78 78 121 175 236 245 223 0 80 77-83
COL 77.8 84.2 788 817 87.5 26.0 71-84 747-828 778-857 77 76 91 181 238 269 221 0 76 73-79
SD 75.1 86.9 707 758 36.0 10.7 69-81 669-744 721-795 75 78 39 115 193 257 396 0 71 67-75
Avg WC 89.2


W:Average wins over 1000 seasons
L:Average losses over 1000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 1000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 1000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 1000 season. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.

Pie Chart Madness!







Clustered Column Charts of Divisional Placings







--Posted at 6:40 am by SG / No Comments | - (129)


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