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Player

 Current Projected
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"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

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- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

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- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Monday, March 30, 2009

2009 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO edition

Below are are the results of my 2009 CAIRO projections when run through Diamond Mind 1000 times.  CAIRO is basically an enhanced version of Tango Tiger’s Marcel projections, with the following key differences:

1) I use park factors to adjust players’ past performance, Marcel does not.
2) I use four years of data instead of three and slightly different weights.
3) I use a league adjustment to adjust for the difference between the AL and NL (my estimation is that the AL is about 4% better than the NL right now).
4) I factor in the defense behind the pitchers when forecasting them for the upcoming season.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I use a different mean for my regression based on a combination of league average, player age, and player position.
6) Marcel does not use minor league statistics converted to MLEs(major league equivalencies), but I do.

To read all the caveats and disclaimers that you should keep in mind when looking at these, check the main post.

So with that enthralling explanation out of the way, onto the standings…

Standings

AL East W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
NYA 96.4 65.6 855 711 530.7 281.5 90-102 814-897 673-749 97 98 554 300 133 12 1 0 99 95-104
BOS 93.1 68.9 856 738 304.7 329.2 87-99 813-899 701-775 93 95 322 358 279 37 4 0 93 90-97
TAM 90.5 71.5 806 702 160.7 302.5 84-97 767-845 665-738 90 89 175 336 412 72 5 0 88 84-92
TOR 77.0 85.0 678 719 3.0 16.3 71-83 642-714 682-757 77 79 4 19 99 544 334 0 79 74-83
BAL 73.6 88.4 792 858 1.0 4.5 68-80 753-830 817-900 74 73 1 6 38 334 621 0 71 66-76
AL Central W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
CLE 83.9 78.1 812 776 418.2 13.5 77-90 771-853 736-816 84 83 439 260 173 103 25 0 88 84-93
DET 82.7 79.3 779 755 325.2 13.8 76-89 741-818 716-794 83 85 341 300 200 117 42 0 83 80-87
MIN 78.9 83.1 726 748 150.5 7.8 72-85 687-764 711-786 79 82 166 217 262 239 116 0 79 75-82
CHA 77.4 84.6 759 801 95.3 4.0 71-84 721-797 761-840 77 78 103 200 272 281 144 0 75 71-78
KC 70.2 91.8 733 859 10.8 0.0 64-76 696-771 817-901 71 71 14 43 111 215 617 0 68 63-73
AL West W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
LAA 85.4 76.6 775 733 554.2 7.8 79-92 737-814 694-771 85 85 581 250 138 31 0 0 88 84-93
OAK 81.3 80.8 772 758 258.2 11.0 75-87 732-811 721-795 81 81 281 348 267 104 0 0 82 78-86
SEA 78.7 83.3 721 737 157.2 4.5 73-85 685-758 699-775 79 77 177 287 335 201 0 0 77 73-81
TEX 72.6 89.4 789 886 30.5 3.5 66-79 749-829 844-928 72 71 36 118 245 601 0 0 71 66-75
Avg WC 93.2
NL East W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
NYN 87.5 74.5 839 775 372.7 138.2 81-94 797-880 738-812 88 88 397 317 248 32 6 0 93 88-97
ATL 87.5 74.5 790 731 344.2 129.4 81-94 752-829 692-769 88 85 364 318 261 50 7 0 87 83-91
PHI 86.3 75.7 840 789 274.2 127.6 80-92 800-880 749-829 86 85 293 327 310 59 11 0 82 78-86
FLA 71.0 91.1 751 842 5.5 1.3 64-78 712-790 800-883 71 73 5 23 74 432 466 0 74 70-79
WAS 70.9 91.1 765 863 4.5 2.3 65-77 728-802 822-904 71 74 5 21 82 435 457 0 67 62-72
NL Central W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
CHN 91.3 70.7 841 735 631.7 91.4 85-98 801-882 698-773 92 95 650 224 89 26 11 0 94 89-98
STL 85.9 76.1 799 748 219.7 166.8 79-92 758-839 710-786 86 82 232 414 214 90 38 12 87 83-91
MIL 82.5 79.5 788 774 117.7 81.6 76-89 751-824 734-813 82 83 129 250 323 188 85 25 82 79-86
CIN 76.7 85.3 733 776 20.0 20.3 71-83 696-770 737-814 77 77 23 86 189 328 254 120 77 74-81
HOU 72.8 89.2 746 825 4.0 10.0 66-79 708-784 785-865 73 73 5 43 108 203 323 318 73 69-77
PIT 71.2 90.8 803 909 7.0 3.8 65-78 764-843 866-951 71 70 8 30 66 168 280 448 67 63-72
NL West W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA Median Mode 1 2 3 4 5 6 APW Std APW
LAN 86.2 75.8 828 774 397.7 71.1 80-93 790-867 736-813 86 85 419 286 166 106 23 0 91 87-95
ARI 85.3 76.7 745 710 333.7 70.9 79-92 708-781 672-747 85 86 352 281 212 121 34 0 86 82-89
COL 80.9 81.1 831 832 128.7 40.8 75-87 789-872 792-872 81 83 139 220 286 268 87 0 81 78-85
SF 80.8 81.2 753 753 132.2 42.0 74-87 715-790 714-791 81 80 140 228 236 298 98 0 77 73-81
SD 71.5 90.5 741 830 7.8 2.5 65-78 704-778 791-869 71 70 9 29 83 180 699 0 70 65-75
Avg WC 89.7


W:Average wins over 1000 seasons
L:Average losses over 1000 seasons
RF:Average runs for(scored) over 1000 seasons
RA:Average runs allowed over 1000 seasons
Div: Number of division titles won over 1000 season. Ties are split (ie, if two teams tie for a division, they each get 0.5 Div)
WC: Number of wild cards won. Same deal with the ties here
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation either way
Std RF: Runs for within one standard deviation either way
Std RA: Runs allowed within one standard deviation either way
Median: Median win total
Mode: Mode win total
1: Number of times in first place
2: Number of times in second place
3: Number of times in third place
4: Number of times in fourth place
5: Number of times in fifth place
6: Number of times in sixth place
APW: Average placing wins. This is the average win total to take each place in the division
Std APW: APW within one standard deviation
Avg WC: Average victory total of the wild card winner over 1000 seasons.
Pie Chart Madness!







Clustered Column Charts of Divisional Placings







--Posted at 6:40 am by SG / 3 Comments | - (445)


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