Monday, October 26, 2009
2009 ALCS Run Values
I was thinking about the fact that CC Sabathia was named ALCS MVP over Alex Rodriguez, so I thought I should see if there was a way to compare their actual contributions. Then I figured I may as well do it for everyone who played in the ALCS, so here it is.
| Name | TEAM | Pos | PA/IP | BR/Rsaa |
| Alex Rodriguez | NYY | 3B | 29 | 5.72 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | SP | 16.0 | 5.17 |
| Jeff Mathis | LAA | C | 12 | 3.25 |
| Mariano Rivera | NYY | RP | 7.0 | 2.14 |
| Vladimir Guerrero | LAA | DH | 28 | 2.01 |
| Andy Pettitte | NYY | SP | 12.7 | 1.68 |
| Melky Cabrera | NYY | CF | 26 | 1.37 |
| Derek Jeter | NYY | SS | 33 | 0.99 |
| Johnny Damon | NYY | LF | 31 | 0.95 |
| David Robertson | NYY | RP | 2.0 | 0.90 |
| Howard Kendrick | LAA | 2B | 15 | 0.86 |
| Kevin Jepsen | LAA | RP | 3.7 | 0.64 |
| Damaso Marte | NYY | RP | 1.3 | 0.60 |
| Robinson Cano | NYY | 2B | 27 | 0.56 |
| Brett Gardner | NYY | CF | 3 | 0.48 |
| Chad Gaudin | NYY | RP | 1.0 | 0.45 |
| Torii Hunter | LAA | CF | 28 | 0.43 |
| Brian Fuentes | LAA | RP | 3.0 | 0.34 |
| Jorge Posada | NYY | C | 25 | 0.31 |
| Phil Coke | NYY | RP | 0.7 | 0.30 |
| Phil Hughes | NYY | RP | 2.7 | 0.20 |
| Jerry Hairston Jr. | NYY | 3B | 2 | 0.13 |
| Jason Bulger | LAA | RP | 2.3 | 0.05 |
| Reggie Willits | LAA | CF | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jose Molina | NYY | C | 3 | -0.09 |
| Darren Oliver | LAA | RP | 6.3 | -0.16 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | SP | 6.3 | -0.16 |
| Francisco Cervelli | NYY | C | 1 | -0.22 |
| Freddy Guzman | NYY | LF | 1 | -0.22 |
| Joba Chamberlain | NYY | RP | 1.7 | -0.25 |
| Erick Aybar | LAA | SS | 21 | -0.33 |
| Joe Saunders | LAA | SP | 10.3 | -0.37 |
| Ervin Santana | LAA | RP | 5.7 | -0.46 |
| Hideki Matsui | NYY | DH | 26 | -0.49 |
| Gary Matthews | LAA | CF | 5 | -0.70 |
| Maicer Izturis | LAA | 2B | 11 | -1.07 |
| Alfredo Aceves | NYY | RP | 1.3 | -1.40 |
| Mike Napoli | LAA | C | 9 | -1.41 |
| John Lackey | LAA | SP | 12.3 | -1.47 |
| Mark Teixeira | NYY | 1B | 30 | -1.60 |
| Bobby Abreu | LAA | RF | 29 | -1.74 |
| Kendry Morales | LAA | 1B | 25 | -1.89 |
| Nick Swisher | NYY | RF | 23 | -2.15 |
| Juan Rivera | LAA | LF | 25 | -2.27 |
| A.J. Burnett | NYY | SP | 12.3 | -2.47 |
| Matt Palmer | LAA | RP | 2.7 | -2.80 |
| Chone Figgins | LAA | 3B | 26 | -2.81 |
| Scott Kazmir | LAA | SP | 4.7 | -2.91 |
I still haven't found any place that is tracking postseason defense, so I'm just looking at offense and pitching. The last column is the runs above average for each player. In this case, for hitters, I'm comparing their linear weights batting runs per PA to the ALCS average. So if we look at Rodriguez, he created 9.2 BR(batting runs) in 29 PAs, compared to the ALCS average of 59.35 in 494 PA. (9.2/29 - 59.35/494) gives us how many BR per PA he was above average, then multiplying that by his actual PA (29) gives us a total. In this case, 5.72. I'm not adjusting for park or for position.
For pitchers, I'm just using ALCS average RA minus pitcher RA divided by nine to get the rate of runs allowed per IP, then multiplying by IP. So for CC, it's 4.03 minus 1.13 divided by nine, which gives us CC saving .323 runs per IP compared to the ALCS average. Multiply that by the 16 IP and we get 5.17 runs saved above average.
It's pretty interesting to see how much greater Mo's impact can be in the postseason, simply by virtue of the percentage of IP he is responsible for compared to the regular season. Factoring in leverage, you can probably go back through the years and make a case for Mo as MVP in several postseasons.
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