Wednesday, October 3, 2007
2007 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown - Part Three
Today I conclude my ALDS preview with a look at the Yankee and Indian bullpens. First up, here's the Indians' pen.| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| Closer | Borowski | 2007 | 69 | 65.7 | 77 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 17 | 58 | .289 | .315 | .436 |
| Proj | 60 | 59 | 60 | 8 | 31 | 30 | 21 | 50 | .261 | .305 | .415 | ||
| Setup | Betancourt | 2007 | 68 | 79.3 | 51 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 80 | .183 | .197 | .277 |
| Proj | 60 | 69 | 55 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 69 | .215 | .235 | .332 | ||
| Middle | Laffey | 2007 | 9 | 49.3 | 54 | 2 | 26 | 25 | 12 | 25 | .287 | .338 | .388 |
| Proj | 37 | 205 | 233 | 19 | 120 | 111 | 12 | 25 | .279 | .287 | .412 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | 44 | 60.7 | 41 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 62 | .187 | .229 | .292 | |
| Proj | 33 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 42 | .190 | .235 | .297 | ||
| Fultz | 2007 | 49 | 37 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 28 | .228 | .304 | .346 | |
| Proj | 57 | 56 | 51 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 44 | .245 | .302 | .388 | ||
| Mastny | 2007 | 51 | 57.7 | 63 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 52 | .283 | .336 | .435 | |
| Proj | 36 | 40 | 43 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 36 | .282 | .337 | .422 | ||
| Lewis | 2007 | 26 | 29.3 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 34 | .234 | .288 | .315 | |
| Proj | 26 | 115 | 121 | 15 | 57 | 56 | 43 | 93 | .261 | .321 | .415 | ||
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | ||
| Closer | Borowski | 2007 | 36% | 31% | 19% | 5.34 | 5.07 | 3.90 | 3.56 | 85 | 146 | 116 | -.067 |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 17% | 4.82 | 4.61 | 3.92 | 4.11 | 95 | 124 | 117 | -.012 | ||
| Setup | Betancourt | 2007 | 29% | 37% | 19% | 1.48 | 1.48 | 2.07 | 2.74 | 190 | 274 | 162 | .419 |
| Proj | 30% | 37% | 19% | 2.68 | 2.55 | 2.42 | 2.59 | 141 | 255 | 155 | .261 | ||
| Middle | Laffey | 2007 | 64% | 15% | 17% | 4.75 | 4.56 | 3.69 | 3.88 | 272 | 147 | 71 | -.022 |
| Proj | 64% | 15% | 17% | 6.92 | 6.40 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 118 | 607 | 17 | -1.364 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | 55% | 20% | 17% | 2.22 | 1.78 | 2.87 | 2.55 | 124 | 134 | 154 | .381 | |
| Proj | 55% | 22% | 16% | 2.51 | 2.12 | 2.16 | 3.03 | 121 | 133 | 160 | .297 | ||
| Fultz | 2007 | 37% | 35% | 22% | 2.92 | 2.92 | 3.77 | 4.57 | 208 | 75 | 104 | .150 | |
| Proj | 40% | 31% | 20% | 3.80 | 3.56 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 146 | 101 | 113 | .098 | ||
| Mastny | 2007 | 44% | 29% | 19% | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.05 | 3.96 | 115 | 70 | 116 | .004 | |
| Proj | 45% | 28% | 20% | 4.83 | 4.83 | 4.41 | 4.00 | 133 | 90 | 120 | -.015 | ||
| Lewis | 2007 | 36% | 33% | 18% | 2.46 | 2.15 | 2.35 | 3.17 | 328 | 107 | 159 | .282 | |
| Proj | 36% | 33% | 18% | 4.45 | 4.37 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 90 | 101 | 107 | .128 |
AVG: Opponents' batting average against
OBP: Opponents' on base percentage against
SLG: Opponents' slugging against
GB%: Groundball percentage
FB%: Fly ball percentage
LD%: Line drive percentage
ERA: Earned run average
ERC: Component ERA (31 times OBP times SLG)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
HR+: HRs per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
BB+: BBs per batters faced compared to league average 100 is average, > 100 is better
K+: Ks per batters faced compared to league average. 100 is average, > 100 is better
RS/G: Runs saved per game compared to league average
Despite an ERA over 5, Joe Borowski racked up 45 saves. Borowski's peripherals are actually better than you'd expect by looking at his ERA. Opponents are hitting .289/.315/.436 against him, which translates to a component ERA of 3.90. His FIP is also decent at 3.56.
He's appeared in 69 games and allowed 37 earned runs. However, 14 of those runs came in just three appearances, April 19 against the Yanks, May 13 against Oakland and August 14 against Detroit. If you remove those three outings from his ledger, you get a more respectable 3.23 ERA. Of course you can play that game with anyone, but Borowski's not as bad as it first appears.
Borowski isn't the main reason to be concerned about the Indians bullpen. They have Rafael Betancourt setting him up, and he's been flat out dominant all season. His HR+, BB+, and K+ are all off the charts good. Opponents hit .183/.197/.277 against him this season. He's probably pitching over his head, but he's been a solid reliever for a few years now (career ERA of 2.80).
The other primary reason that the Indians' bullpen should concern us as Yankee fans are the lefties they'll be carrying.
Their primary lefty reliever is Rafael Perez. He throws a 92-94 mph fastball and a nasty slider, and has been nasty this season. He's not just a lefty killer, as he's pitched 60.2 innings in 44 games after getting called up from Buffalo where he was a starter. Betancourt and Perez are a sick combo to set up Borowski.
Aaron Fultz has bounced around a bit, and has been fairly pedestrian, but he has done well against lefties.
The third lefty that the Indians will carry in the bullpen is Aaron Laffey, who they've used exclusively as a starter. His splits against lefties aren't very good, but as the third man on the depth chart that shouldn't matter that much since he probably wouldn't have to be used in high-leverage situations.
Here's how the three lefties splits look for 2007 and over their careers.
| Pitcher | Split | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| Fultz | 2007 | vs RHB | 79 | 68 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 16 | .265 | .342 | .353 |
| vs LHB | 79 | 68 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 12 | .191 | .291 | .338 | ||
| Career | vs RHB | 1227 | 1072 | 295 | 65 | 7 | 39 | 121 | 223 | .275 | .350 | .458 | |
| vs LHB | 830 | 728 | 172 | 39 | 5 | 11 | 66 | 171 | .236 | .303 | .349 | ||
| Perez | 2007 | vs RHB | 144 | 136 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 40 | .217 | .257 | .324 |
| vs LHB | 92 | 83 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 22 | .145 | .209 | .241 | ||
| Career | vs RHB | 173 | 162 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 48 | .222 | .272 | .352 | |
| vs LHB | 119 | 106 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 29 | .142 | .214 | .217 | ||
| Laffey | 2007 | vs RHB | 139 | 129 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | .271 | .304 | .357 |
| vs LHB | 68 | 59 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 | .322 | .412 | .458 |
Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis round out the Indians pen. Mastny's nothing special. Lewis has been great in his major league debut but his projections coming into the season weren't very impressive.
Overall this season, Cleveland's bullpen ranked fourth in the AL in ERA at 3.75. Late inning comebacks will be hard to come by in this series for the Yankees.
Here's the Yankee pen minus the 11th pitcher that they will announce at some point.
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | HR | R | ER | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | ||
| Closer | Rivera | 2007 | 67 | 71.3 | 68 | 4 | 25 | 25 | 12 | 74 | .248 | .285 | .350 |
| Proj | 67 | 75 | 62 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 69 | .224 | .263 | .300 | ||
| Setup | Chamberlain | 2007 | 19 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 34 | .145 | .200 | .229 |
| Proj | 44 | 49 | 32 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 63 | .180 | .245 | .279 | ||
| Middle | Vizcaino | 2007 | 77 | 75.3 | 66 | 6 | 38 | 37 | 44 | 62 | .235 | .301 | .384 |
| Proj | 72 | 71 | 63 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 35 | 61 | .237 | .300 | .398 | ||
| Farnsworth | 2007 | 64 | 60 | 60 | 9 | 35 | 32 | 27 | 48 | .256 | .327 | .415 | |
| Proj | 69 | 64 | 58 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 67 | .237 | .309 | .376 | ||
| Villone | 2007 | 37 | 42.3 | 36 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 25 | .234 | .324 | .344 | |
| Proj | 57 | 66 | 59 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 36 | 54 | .241 | .327 | .367 | ||
| Hughes | 2007 | 13 | 73 | 64 | 8 | 39 | 36 | 29 | 58 | .235 | .310 | .386 | |
| Proj | 13 | 73 | 67 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 26 | 59 | .246 | .310 | .397 | ||
| Pitcher | GB% | FB% | LD% | RA | ERA | ERC | FIP | HR+ | BB+ | K+ | RS/G | ||
| Closer | Rivera | 2007 | 53% | 21% | 19% | 3.16 | 3.16 | 2.53 | 2.64 | 194 | 210 | 147 | .184 |
| Proj | 56% | 21% | 15% | 2.43 | 2.25 | 2.45 | 2.58 | 265 | 209 | 139 | .281 | ||
| Setup | Chamberlain | 2007 | 38% | 28% | 24% | 0.75 | 0.38 | 1.42 | 1.66 | 255 | 144 | 229 | .556 |
| Proj | 38% | 28% | 24% | 2.02 | 1.84 | 2.12 | 2.40 | 172 | 104 | 188 | .333 | ||
| Middle | Vizcaino | 2007 | 37% | 34% | 20% | 4.54 | 4.42 | 3.98 | 4.41 | 147 | 65 | 108 | .018 |
| Proj | 42% | 31% | 17% | 4.12 | 3.99 | 3.71 | 4.10 | 92 | 58 | 115 | .064 | ||
| Farnsworth | 2007 | 30% | 43% | 18% | 5.25 | 4.80 | 4.90 | 4.88 | 78 | 84 | 106 | -.056 | |
| Proj | 36% | 35% | 18% | 4.43 | 4.09 | 3.61 | 4.04 | 99 | 85 | 146 | .030 | ||
| Villone | 2007 | 37% | 31% | 22% | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.83 | 4.65 | 92 | 83 | 83 | .058 | |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 19% | 4.93 | 4.52 | 3.72 | 4.54 | 123 | 74 | 113 | -.028 | ||
| Hughes | 2007 | 38% | 32% | 22% | 4.83 | 4.46 | 3.72 | 4.31 | 108 | 84 | 115 | -.073 | |
| Proj | 38% | 32% | 22% | 4.31 | 3.98 | 3.82 | 4.04 | 101 | 100 | 113 | .249 |
Unlike the Indians, the Yankees don't have depth in their bullpen. Mariano Rivera had a down year by his lofty standards, but he was still very effective, and his peripherals are all solid. He gave up more line drives this year, and more hits in general, but there's no reason to be concerned about him.
Joba Chamberlain. Man, myth, legend. We like Joba so much we sponsored his Baseball Reference page. The Joba rules are out the window for the postseason with the importance of the games and the added off days, so expect to see him late in any games the Yankees are leading.
It's been a tale of three seasons for Luis Vizcaino. From April 2 through June 2, Vizcaino pitched 27 innings and had an ERA of 7.33. Opponents hit .248/.381/.436 against him. From June 3 to August 29 Vizcaino pitched 40.1 innings with 1.12 ERA. He fanned 37 while opponents hit .181/.268/.264 against him. In September he struggled due to fatigue and was shut down several times. In 8 September innings he allowed 15 hits and had an ERA of 10.13, and opponents hit .417/.464/.722. Hopefully the rest he's getting now will get him back to form.
Phil Hughes will be the primary long reliever in the bullpen, likely to pick up the slack should one of the starters get bombed. Hughes has not pitched out of the pen yet. He showed glimpses of the promise that he had in the minors over his last five outings, throwing 29.2 innings with an ERA of 2.73. Hughes beat Cleveland on Aug 10, going six strong innings and allowing just one run.
Kyle Farnsworth scares me. Thankfully, Chamberlain's emergence has removed him from the nominal 8th inning role. Ron Villone scares me too, although less so than Farnsworth. Villone was actually decent this year overall, he held opponents to a .234/.324/.344 and put up an ERA around league average. He really had only two bad outings this year, where he gave 8 runs over 2/3 of an inning. If we could take those out, he'd have had an ERA of 2.59. But we can't, so he doesn't.
I'm not sure who the sixth man will be. Based on usage patterns over the last week of the season I think it's going to be Jose Veras. I'm not sold on him because of his lack of command, but his stuff is pretty good so maybe he could surprise us. Edwar Ramirez looks like he's pitched his way off the roster. I still like Ramirez's chances of contributing in the future, but I don't think he's ready yet. Ross Ohlendorf could end up being the choice, and that's probably who I'd like to see go. He had an unimpressive season in AAA but he has looked good in the big league pen, with a good sinking fastball and a sharp slider, and he has better command than Veras.
The Yankee bullpen struggled most of the year, and were tenth in the league in ERA.
This is going to be a tough series for the Yankees to take. The Yankees are the better offensive team, but the Indians have better pitching. The defenses are comparable. I think it's going to be up to the Yankee starting pitchers getting deep enough in the games that they can go to Vizcaino, Chamberlain, and Mo. If that happens the Yanks should be in good shape. I won't predict what might happen, because I have no idea. After the way this season started, I'm just glad to see the Yanks playing in October right now. I'm sure I'll feel differently after the first pitch on Thursday though.
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