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Monday, October 1, 2007

2007 Yankees vs. Indians ALDS Breakdown - Part One

Well, it took six months to get here, but here we are. The Yankees didn't win the AL East for the first time in 10 seasons, but took advantage of the wild card to get into the tournament. Like most Yankee fans, I was just praying the Yankees would avoid Los Angeles of Anaheim, but I'm reminded of last year when everyone wanted to get the Tigers instead of the Twins, and we saw how well that worked out.

The first thing I'd suggest to everyone is to disregard the fact that the Yankees took all six games they played against Cleveland this year. That has no predictive utility as far as what we can expect in this upcoming series.

Today I'm going to look at the position players on both teams to see how they compare on both offense and defense. Regular readers know what this means. It's time for some charts!

First up, the most likely starting lineup for the Indians:

Starters	POS		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/G	ZR	DR/G
Sizemore,Grady	CF	2007	.277	.390	.462	.82	.916	0.07
		Proj	.284	.372	.490	.82	.904	0.05
Blake,Casey	3B	2007	.270	.339	.437	.65	.737	-0.05
		Proj	.264	.333	.443	.66	.738	-0.05
Hafner,Travis	DH	2007	.266	.385	.451	.73	.000	0.00
		Proj	.286	.400	.541	.87	.000	0.00
Martinez,Victor	C	2007	.301	.374	.505	.78	.000	0.00
		Proj	.294	.369	.472	.73	.000	0.00
Garko,Ryan F	1B	2007	.289	.359	.483	.71	.823	-0.02
		Proj	.276	.346	.456	.65	.813	-0.04
Peralta,Jhonny	SS	2007	.270	.341	.430	.59	.793	-0.07
		Proj	.272	.342	.442	.61	.808	-0.03
Lofton,Kenny	LF	2007	.296	.363	.414	.60	.868	0.01
		Proj	.296	.353	.410	.58	.853	-0.02
Nixon,Trot	RF	2007	.251	.342	.336	.46	.863	-0.01
		Proj	.257	.347	.385	.52	.869	0.00
Cabrera,Asdrubal J	2B	2007	.283	.354	.421	.51	.847	0.06
		Proj	.261	.312	.378	.43	.847	0.06
Total per game		2007				5.85		0.0
		Proj				5.87		0.0
Total per 162 games		2007				947		-2
		Proj				951		-6

2007
BR/G: Batting runs per game using linear weights
ZR: Actual 2007 zone rating at the listed position
DR/G: Defensive runs saved above average per game

Proj
BR/G: Batting runs per game using linear weights and weighed 2/3 on the player's projection entering 2007 and 1/3 on their actual 2007 stats
ZR: Weighted average ZR at the listed position
DR/G: Defensive runs saved above average per game

One of the mistakes most people make (and one that I am guilty of at times as well) is to focus just on this season when trying to figure out what we can expect projecting forward. To rectify this, I've calculated revised projections on offense and defense for both teams. The projections are just 2/3 of their projections coming into the season and 1/3 of their 2007 actual performance. So after each player, you will see two stat lines. The first is their actual 2007 performance, and the second is their revised projection. For players who spent time in the minors I've included their MLEs(major league equivalencies).

BR/G is an estimate of how many batting runs per game a player will provide from the lineup slot they are slotted in. For this exercise, I did not do any position-adjustments because I just want to compare the relative strengths of the whole lineup.

ZR is the player's zone rating at the position they are listed at. I then calculate their defensive runs saved per game assuming a typical distribution of chances.

So looking at the Indians, as a collective group they've played right around where their projections say they should be. They're an average defensive team for the most part, and a strong lineup that would score 950 runs or so if they could run all their starters out there 162 times.

It all starts at the top with Grady Sizemore. Overall on the season Sizemore was worth about twenty runs more than an average CF on offense and was +11 defensively, so he was three wins better than an average CF, or five wins better than a replacement-level one. Sizemore has issues with left-handed pitching (career OPS of .922 vs righties, .716 vs lefties) but the current Yankee staff is not really able to exploit that. I suppose the Yankees could consider using Ron Villone against him in a key spot or something.

Casey Blake is a decent hitter (career OPS+ of 106). He's versatile enough to play the infield corners or see some spot duty in the OF, but right now he's Cleveland's starting third baseman.

Travis "Pronk" Hafner is a scary hitter who had a down year after three outstanding seasons. Hafner led the American League in OPS+ from 2004-2006. Hafner season line was disappointing for him, but he appears to be heating up as he hit .316/.414/.551 in September. He's another player who has a platoon split, but again the Yankees don't have the personnel to do anything about it.

Victor Martinez was worth 29 runs above the average catcher on offense this season. Only Jorge Posada was better. Martinez also reversed a trend of bad defense. I have him as +4 runs above an average catcher this season.

The Indians' 1, 3, and 4 hitters are a damn good group collectively. I'd put them up with anyone in baseball's right now.

Ryan Garko's a touch above average offensively for a first baseman, and a touch below average defensively.

Jhonny Peralta looked like he was going to be the next great shortstop in his age 23 season, putting up an OPS+ of 139 and being 11 runs above average defensively. He dropped to an OPS+ of 85 at age 24 in addition to losing 14 runs of defensive value. He rebounded a bit this season with an OPS+ of 105 but his defense got worse. Overall, he's an average SS but he's talented enough to be dangerous in a short series.

Kenny Lofton's homecoming to Cleveland hasn't gone all that well, as he's hit .283/.344/.370 after being acquired from Texas earlier in the season. He's been average in LF after playing mainly CF for Texas. His overall season line is still certainly respectable, and he's still a stolen base threat even at age 40. Lofton will probably be platooned with Jason Michaels against Andy Pettitte.

Trot Nixon is no stranger to Yankee fans. He may not get all the starts in RF as the Indians have 24 year old Franklin Gutierrez as well as the aforementioned Michaels and David Dellucci around.

Asdrubal Cabrera appears to have won the second base job from the disappointing Josh Barfield. At just 21 years old he's put up an OPS+ of 107 (in very limited playing time) as well as playing plus defense at all three infield skill positions (again in a very small sample size).

The thing that stands out for me is that are no dead spots in the lineup. Top to bottom, if the Indians start Cabrera at second, Gutierrez in RF and Lofton in LF every player has an OPS+ greater than 100 on the season.

Cleveland's lineup is pretty solid, but they also have a pretty good bench.

Bench	POS		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/G	ZR	DR/G
Gomez,Chris	1B	2007	.297	.317	.374	.44	.700	-0.19
		Proj	.286	.328	.368	.46	.805	-0.05
Shoppach,Kelly B	C	2007	.261	.310	.472	.58	.000	0.00
		Proj	.240	.307	.437	.54	.000	0.00
Barfield,Josh L	2B	2007	.243	.270	.324	.34	.806	-0.04
		Proj	.259	.300	.389	.47	.812	-0.03
Gutierrez,Franklin R	RF	2007	.266	.318	.472	.58	.971	0.20
		Proj	.260	.316	.433	.54	.971	0.20
Michaels,Jason	LF	2007	.270	.324	.397	.48	.858	-0.01
		Proj	.267	.334	.406	.52	.851	-0.02
Dellucci,David	LF	2007	.230	.297	.382	.45	.835	-0.05
		Proj	.244	.329	.427	.55	.835	-0.05

As I mentioned above, Gutierrez is a name to watch out for, as I could see him taking starts away from Trot Nixon. Other than that I'd expect the starting lineup to remain pretty consistent. Kelly Shoppach is the best backup catcher in the league BTW. He was the seventh most valuable offensive catcher in the AL despite only getting 177 plate appearances. Chris Gomez and Barfield are around as glove men primarily, although Gomez is not an automatic out. Dellucci missed most of the season but appeared in a couple of games last week so he may be back on the roster.

Here's how the Yankees starting nine compare.

Starters	POS		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/G	ZR	DR/G
Damon,Johnny	LF	2007	.270	.351	.396	.68	.861	0.00
		Proj	.283	.358	.438	.73	.870	0.01
Jeter,Derek	SS	2007	.322	.388	.452	.75	.765	-0.14
		Proj	.322	.387	.452	.76	.803	-0.05
Abreu,Bobby	RF	2007	.283	.369	.445	.72	.858	-0.02
		Proj	.279	.382	.446	.74	.863	-0.01
Rodriguez,Alex	3B	2007	.314	.422	.645	1.04	.765	0.01
		Proj	.296	.397	.568	.91	.762	0.00
Matsui,Hideki	DH	2007	.285	.367	.488	.72	.000	0.00
		Proj	.287	.373	.478	.72	.000	0.00
Posada,Jorge	C	2007	.338	.426	.543	.86	.000	0.00
		Proj	.285	.385	.477	.72	.000	0.00
Cano,Robinson	2B	2007	.306	.353	.488	.66	.846	0.06
		Proj	.307	.347	.477	.64	.832	0.02
Cabrera,Melky	CF	2007	.273	.327	.391	.49	.903	0.04
		Proj	.279	.333	.402	.52	.893	0.02
Mientkiewicz,Doug	1B	2007	.277	.350	.440	.53	.831	-0.01
		Proj	.260	.330	.401	.48	.871	0.04
Total per game		2007				6.45		-0.1
		Proj				6.22		0.0
Total per 162 games		2007				1045		-11
		Proj				1008		7

I'd assume this is the lineup of choice based on the last few weeks, and honestly the way Doug Mientkiewicz is hitting now I wouldn't mess with it. As good as Cleveland's lineup is, the Yankees project to be around fifty runs better over a full season.

Johnny Damon is hitting .319/.370/.496 since June 21 (over 55 games). He's also playing very good LF defense recently. If you take out his first four games in LF he has a zone rating of .881 which would be equivalent to being a +6 defender over a full season.

Derek Jeter has been dealing with nagging injuries this year, and it's hurt his offense and his defense. He was still a +22 offensive player this season, but last year he was +48. Jeter had an OPS of .871 pre-All Star Break and .804 after. He ended the year at -20 runs defensively compared to an average AL SS, so he did at least hit enough to compensate for his defensive weakness this year.

Bobby Abreu is the bellwether for my favorite selective endpoint of the season, May 30. From that date on, Abreu hit .309/.396/.520 with 14 HRs and 34 2Bs. When Abreu hits, the Yankees score runs in bunches. In Yankee wins, Abreu hit .298/.374/.470. In Yankee losses, he hit .259/.361/.410. He's also playing passable defense in RF overall. On the season he was -3 runs defensively but over his last 52 games he was +1.

Alex Rodriguez. You know the deal. He's the best player in the American League and will be under an intense microscope from the start. We'll see how it goes.

Hideki Matsui fell off pretty badly after a ridiculous hot streak. From Jul 3 to Aug 25, Matsui hit an amazing .365/.423/.651 with 15 HRs in 48 games. Over the last 25 games he's hit just .196/.312/.359. A hot Matsui can carry the team, but a cold one could bury them. Hopefully the extended break gets his knees healthier. In his career, Matsui has hit .308/.382/.555 as a DH, which is the role I expect him to play in the postseason.

Jorge Posada has hit .241/.358/.388 in the postseason in his career. It'd be nice if he could do better than that this year.

Robinson Cano can be maddeningly streaky. A look at his raw stat line might make it seem like he fell off this year, but there were some encouraging signs of development. Cano drew 34 non-intentional walks this season after drawing a total of 30 in his first two season. His Isolated Power (SLG - AVG) was just about the same as last year. He didn't hit as many line drives as he did in 2006 overall, and that is a at least part of the explanation for the drop in average. Through May 15 he was hitting .234/.276/.312 with 7 BB and 29 Ks in 152 plate appearances. So he was walking in 4.6% of his plate appearances and fanning in 19.1%. From May 16 on he hit .328/.376/.540 with 32 BB and 56 Ks in 517 plate appearances, so he walked in 6.1% of his plate appearances and whiffed in 10.8%. One last thing about Cano. Last year he was worth 21 runs above an average 2B offensively and he was basically average defensively. This year he's been worth 14 runs above average on offense but he was also a +9 defender, so overall he was a touch more valuable in 2007 than 2006.

Melky Cabrera has fallend off dramatically in the second half of the season on offense. He peaked on Aug 13 with a line of .302/.351/.452. Since then he's hit .203/.269/.241. It could be related to fatigue or it could be that Melky was playing over his head and came back down to earth. My guess is it's a combination of both things. He ended the season -12 runs on offense and +6 runs on defense, so he was below average overall. This doesn't include the value of his arm, which may boost him back up close to average.

Doug Mientkiewicz was a signing that most Yankee fans hated. No, Mientkiewicz isn't a great player, but there were very few options available this offseason. After returning from his injury, Mientkiewicz hit .429/.510/.619, which pushed his season line to an OPS+ of 112. He's also put up a zone rating of .900 since then. No, he's not that good, but I'd expect him to be able to play good defense and get on base at a respectable clip. Jason Giambi's bat just never got going so I think Mientkiewicz gets the nod here, and I have a tough time quibbling about it.

One thing the Yankees need to be cognizant of is that Cleveland has two tough lefty relievers in Rafael Perez and Aaron Fultz. Lefties have hit .142/.214/.217 against Perez in his career, and have hit .236/.303/.349 against Fultz in his career. If the Yankees use the lineup above they will limit their vulnerability to the platoon advantage. The Yankees will also have Shelley Duncan looming in the background if they need to pinch-hit for Mientkiewicz against a lefty (although Mientkiewicz has historically hit lefties a bit better than righties). Something I found interesting is that the Yankee offense has overperformed expectations. That's probably easily explained by Rodriguez and Posada blowing away their projections.

Meanwhile, the defense has underperformed expectations slightly this season although it's still probably the best defensive team they've had since the late 90s. They actually project to be an at least average defensive team. Damon in left is a big upgrade on Matsui, Melky in center is a big upgrade on Damon in center, Abreu is an upgrade over Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez 2007 is an upgrade on Alex Rodriguez 2005 and 2006, and Robinson Cano projects to be above average as well, although maybe not as good as he's been in 2007. And the shortstop bangs supermodels.

Speaking of Shelley Duncan, here's the Yankee bench.

Bench	POS		AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/G	ZR	DR/G
Giambi,Jason	DH	2007	.236	.356	.433	.59	.000	0.00
		Proj	.247	.394	.488	.70	.000	0.00
Betemit,Wilson	3B	2007	.229	.331	.454	.59	.721	-0.09
		Proj	.248	.326	.442	.56	.721	-0.09
Molina,Jose	C	2007	.257	.267	.340	.36	.000	0.00
		Proj	.244	.274	.353	.39	.000	0.00
Duncan,Shelly S	1B	2007	.265	.341	.533	.78	1.000	0.22
		Proj	.271	.347	.542	.78	.825	-0.02

The Yankee bench is also strong this season, which is usually not the case. There are three legit power threats on the bench in Jason Giambi, Duncan and Wilson Betemit. Jose Molina's projected OPS of .627 isn't very good, but he probably won't have to play all that much and he's a good defender. I could see Giambi getting a few starts at first base if Mientkiewicz struggles or if he succeeds in a pinch-hitting role.

I didn't include Bronson Sardinha or Alberto Gonzalez in here because it's doubtful they'd be used for anything other than pinch-running. The thing is, if Giambi is not starting who do you pinch run for? Posada? I wouldn't risk losing his bat in any games.

Overall, the straight lineup comparison seems to favor the Yankees on both offense and defense, but the Indians do present some matchup problems for the Yankees with Fultz, Perez and C.C. Sabathia, so keep that in mind. I'll write up the pitchers in a day or two.

Incidentally, as torrid as the Yankees have been in the second half, since August 15th the Indians have been better. Cleveland has gone 31-12 since that date, a .721 winning percentage. The Yankees have gone 27-16, a .628 winning percentage.