Saturday, January 16, 2010

Yankees’ Top Prospects: 1-5

First, I guess I should introduce myself.  As should be obvious, my name is Kyle, I’m currently stuck in Arizona until I finish college, and—as is appropriate for this site—I am a stat-geek.  SG and I had talked about me contributing some minor league stuff to the site, but it took a while for it to actually happen—and I’ve been procrastinating during my break between semesters. 

I figured I’d start off with a completely unoriginal top prospect list, because I don’t think you are allowed to blog about prospects in the offseason without doing one.  I’m going to focus on stats a lot more than publications like Baseball America, Pinstripes Plus, etc., but that’s because they already do far better work than I could with scouting.  I do try to use a mix of both scouting and statistics when judging a prospect, and tend to agree with Theo Epstein’s view:

“For players in the rookie leagues and the lower levels, we focus more on traditional scoutings and tools. As the player rises through the minors, we shift our emphasis towards performance and statistical evaluation. When a player reaches AA, we balance these two schools of evaluation 50-50… and it more or less remains that way.”

—Theo Epstein

Part of the problem with using minor league statistics is they’re often not put in a proper context.  Not only is there a difference in parks, but you also have leagues that are wildly different from each other, even at the same level.  Thanks to Baseball-Reference for the minor league stats—both league and player—and Dan Szymborski for the park multipliers, I was able to put together a spreadsheet that calculates OPS+, ERA+, and the league average for pretty much every league in the 2000’s.

Of course since they’re minor leaguers, how they got to their performance matters more than the value their performance was worth since we care about their major league potential (and trade value), not how many championships they bring to Charleston.  I tend to be pessimistic on high-strikeout hitters, as I don’t believe most of them can support their on-contact numbers in the majors, nor do I think they’re likely to cut down significantly on their strikeouts as they move up the ladder and face tougher pitchers.  For pitchers, of course I want to see strong numbers in the FIP components (SO, BB, HBP, HR, GB%), but I’m also wary of minor league pitchers that give up a high number of hits on balls in play as I believe guys that do so while showing strong SO, BB, and HR rates tend to have fringy stuff.

For all the players I rank I’ll post their stat lines from my spreadsheet.  Anything highlighted in yellow is what the league average is for that year, league, and park.  I don’t have any park factors for the foreign leagues or the Gulf Coast League in recent years, but every other level is park-adjusted.  I’ll include a quick glossary on some stats you may not be familiar with at the end of this post.

Anyway, here we go:

1.) Jesus Montero, C, B/T: R/R, 6’5” 225lbs , signed in 2006 for $1.6M

Strengths:  The bat.  He’s received Manny Ramirez, Mike Piazza, Carlos Delgado, and Paul Konerko comps from Baseball America and John Sickels.  Baseball America said he’s close to projecting as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale for both hitting and power.  His career OPS+ in the minors is 159.  In 2009 as a 19-year old, he had a 191 OPS+ in the FSL where the average hitter is 22 and a 166 OPS+ in the EL where the average hitter is 24.  The only minor league hitter I might take over Montero is Jason Heyward, but both look like they could be middle-of-the-order, All-Star level hitters.

Weaknesses: Defense.  He may have above average raw arm strength, but it hasn’t played up in games due to a slow release.  For his career he’s given up 24 more SB than the average catcher, and has never been above average at any level.  He did see his CS% jump from 12.5% in the FSL to 31.8% in the EL, so there’s some hope he’s improving, however, at least one scout in the EL wasn’t impressed:

“...but we had a scout in the EL tell us he got a 2.35 pop time on Montero there (the time from the ball hitting his mitt to getting to second base), which was the slowest time he’d seen in a Double-A game, so it’s hard to say it’s improvement.”

—Baseball America Chat 
Of course this could have just been a particularly bad throw and/or game for Montero, and he reportedly showed much better times to 2B at other times.  Montero is also a slow runner, which doesn’t matter a whole lot for a catcher, but it does make it less likely he could handle a move to the OF.  The only weakness I can find with his hitting is that he doesn’t walk that often—7% compared to a league average of 9%.  However, he can and does hit balls out of the strike zone with authority, and he rarely strikes out—especially for a power hitter—so it’s not much of a concern. 

Path to The Big Leagues: Montero is set to start 2010 in AAA Scranton.  As with all Yankees’ AAA catchers, he’ll get some practice in at 1B and 3B, although not necessarily in games.  His bat is or is close to major league ready, and if Nick Johnson spends significant time on the DL, I would not be surprised to see Montero fill-in.  The biggest question long-term of course, is what position he plays.  1B isn’t really an option with the Yankees (if he’s traded I’d expect him to move to 1B right away), and his speed makes a move to the OF unlikely, although I hope the Yankees at least try him there if he can’t stick at catcher.  RF in Yankee Stadium isn’t that big, and his arm should play there.  On the Yankees, it’s really a matter of how bad of defense they can tolerate at catcher.  Mike Piazza was -61 runs at catcher over his entire career according to Total Zone while his position value was 83 runs, so if Montero can play defense as well as Piazza, I’d probably keep him there as long as he can hold up.

Even if he’s not a full-time catcher, catching around 30-40 games, playing 1B another 10-15, and DH’ing the rest of the time would still open up some opportunities with roster construction, and I don’t think anyone will be too upset that he’s not a full-time catcher if he really does end up as a Manny or Delgado level bat.

Grade: A

2.) Austin Romine, C, B/T: R/R, 6’2” 210lbs, drafted 30th in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft, signed for $500K

Strengths: Romine has shown good contact skills to go along with plus power potential.  As a 20-year old in the FSL, he put up a 124 OPS+ while making contact in over 82% of his ABs.  Despite a low success rate, his 11 SB is impressive for a catcher.  He has a strong arm and threw out 30% of would-be-basestealers in 2009 (essentially league average), a dramatic improvement on the 20% he threw out in 2008.  Scouts believe he has the tools necessary to remain at catcher, however, and Yankees pitchers do not focus on holding runners at that level.

Weaknesses: Romine does a lot of good things when he swings the bat, the problem is he needs to learn when not to swing as well.  He walked in only 5.7% of his PAs in 2009, essentially unchanged from the 5.8% he walked in 2008.  It wouldn’t concern me as much but he also saw his contact% go down in 2009, and you never want to see a hitter’s BB/SO ratio decline.  Luckily, he plays the position with the lowest offensive demands, but he’s still going to need to show he can control the strikezone if he’s going to be an everyday player.  Defensively, he’s still a bit rough, and needs to improve his receiving, blocking pitches in the dirt, and cut down on his throwing errors.  He just turned 21 so he has plenty of time to improve here, and still projects as at least average on defense.

Path to The Big Leagues: Romine will start 2010 in AA Trenton, and should be the everyday catcher for the whole season for the first time in his career—he and Montero alternated between catcher and DH before Montero’s promotion to AA last year.  He’s more likely to be the Yankees’ long-term catcher than Montero, but is less likely to see the majors in 2010.  His bat isn’t good enough to fill-in at DH, and I can’t see the Yankees using him as a backup catcher and possibly delaying his development if Cervelli were to get hurt.  He still has plenty to work on offensively, and needs to smooth out the edges on defense.  If he can develop better plate discipline to go along with his plus power, he could be an everyday catcher and perhaps even occasional all-star.  If not, he still could be a good backup catcher with some pop.

Grade: B, borderline B+

And now, for the other three guys. 

3.) Manny Banuelos, SP, B/T: L/L, 5’10” 155lbs

Strengths: Banuelos constantly gets praised for his command and poise on the mound at such a young age.  Only 18-years old, he spent almost all of 2009 in full-season A ball, where he put up an ERA+ of 132 with nearly a strikeout per inning and only 2.33 BB/9.  His fastball can reach 94-95, although is usually high 80’s to low 90’s, and both his changeup and curveball project as average pitches, the changeup perhaps above average. 

Weaknesses: Since Manny is so small, scouts don’t expect him to add much velocity as he ages.  This would likely limit his ceiling to a mid-rotation starter, even if his curveball improves as expected.  Despite above average walk rates, he threw 13 WP last year and hit 9 batters.  Both marks were slightly below average, and something he’ll need to improve on as he moves up the ladder if he wants to reach his ceiling—better defensive catchers should help with the former at least.  His GB% was 43 last year, which is about neutral, but it’s something to keep in mind if he relies heavily on his changeup.

Path to The Big Leagues: Banuelos will start 2010 in high-A Tampa at only 19-years old.  He could conceivably get a shot at the big leagues by age 20, but there should be no rush and even if he spends a full season at each level, he’d be ready for the majors by 22.  It will be interesting to see if he does add any velocity as he fills out; all the sources I’ve seen have him listed at only 155lbs., and even at 5’10” he has plenty of room to add muscle.  He was called up to Tampa at the end of last season for their playoff run, and his 18 SO/9, INF SO/BB, and GB% of 100 surely points to him being the Mexican Sandy Koufax once he reaches the majors. 

Grade: B

4.) Zach McAllister, SP, B/T: R/R, 6’6” 230lbs, drafted 28th in the 3rd round of the 2006 draft, signed for $368K

Strengths: McAllister has great command, good movement on his fastball, an above average to plus slider, and can throw all four of his pitches for strikes.  He put up a 157 ERA+ in 121 IP in AA Trenton last year, which is actually his worst ERA+ in a full-season league.  He gets a good number of GB, rarely hits a batter or throws a wild pitch, doesn’t give up many HR, and has an average strikeout rate. 

Weaknesses: McAllister doesn’t have overpowering stuff, and will have to be precise with his location to succeed in the majors.  His GB% has declined gradually as he’s moved up the ladder, and he won’t get the strikeouts to make up for a high HR rate if this continues.  Both his changeup and curveball are fringy, and he has below average velocity on his fastball.  He gives up a high number of unearned runs—likely due to being a GB pitcher—so his career RA+ of 125 (FIP+ is 124) is a better representation of his production than the 132 ERA+.  McAllister also missed time in 2009 with a sore shoulder, although no surgery was needed and he ended the year healthy.

Path to The Big Leagues: McAllister will start 2010 in AAA Scranton, and may be the first starter in line for a promotion.  He pitches better against RHB than LHB, but has done a nice job with his slider against lefties to get more strikeouts.  Assuming both Hughes and Joba are in the majors to start the year, he may get a spot start as soon as a starter gets injured, since Cashman has said they don’t want to move either of them from the pen to starting in-season.  If he stays healthy, productive, and a Yankee, I’d expect him to open up 2011 in Chad Gaudin’s spot.  As long as he can maintain his GB rates, he could end up as a good #4 or #5.

Grade: B-

5.) Slade Heathcott, CF, B/T: L/L, 6’1” 190lbs, drafted 29th in the 1st round of the 2009 draft, signed for $2.2M

Strengths: Slade is a potential five-tool CF with almost unlimited upside.  He pitched in high school, and if he doesn’t make it as a position player could always be tried as a reliever where he’s flashed a fastball that’s reached the mid 90’s.

Weaknesses: He only has 11 professional PA, and was plagued by injury problems his last year of high school.

Path to The Big Leagues: I would not be surprised to see Heathcott rank anywhere from #1 to #20 among Yankees prospects next year.  He’s at least 3 years away from the majors, and likely more, but if he can fulfill his potential, he could be ready just as Granderson’s contract is up.  I loved this pick when it was made, but there’s really nothing else to be said until we see how he handles Charleston in 2010. 

Grade: B-

If anyone wants to see his stats, I’ll post them, but they’re less than useless.

I’ll try and get 6-10 done soon too, and if anyone wants the spreadsheet it’s here.  You need excel 2007, and if you want to add players I haven’t yet, just send me a message through the site and I’ll give you instructions.  I’ll update the spreadsheet again once the season starts so it will calculate in-season OPS+, ERA+, etc.

All the splits and GB rates in this post were from minor league splits.

Now for a quick explanation of some of the stats.  All the adjusted stats take the percentage of PA (or BF for pitchers) that an event happened compared to the rate it happened in the league the player was in (park adjusted when possible).  It then applies a league factor based on the rate it happened in that league compared to the rate it happened across all minor leagues in the 2000s and prorates it out to 650 PA (or 870 BF for starters and 325 for relievers).  I may end up changing this so it only looks at the level the player was at, but just remember it’s more of a toy, especially for short-season leagues.

For advanced hitter’s stats:
AIR: just like on BR, think of it like OPS+, only for the leagues the player has played in compared to all the minor leagues in the 2000s.  The Yankees farm clubs play in very pitcher friendly leagues.
CON%: (AB-SO+SF)/(AB+SF)
BAoC (batting average on contact): H / (AB-SO+SF)
ISOD (isolated discipline): OBP-BA
BB%: (BB-IBB)/(PA-SH-IBB)
SLGoC (slugging on contact): TB / (AB-SO+SF)
XBH%: XBH / H
SBR: SB / (1B+BB+HBP-IBB)
3B%: 3B / (2B+3B)
SPD: 1-10, 5 is typically average.  Uses the same formula that fangraphs does.
SECA (secondary average): (TB-H+SB-CS+BB) / AB
BR (batting runs): linear weights, out run value is variable to get league average to zero
BR650: batting runs per 650 PA
BRC: batting runs created

Advanced pitching stats:
AIR: similar to hitters, only using runs instead of OPS.  Below 100 is still pitcher friendly, while above 100 is hitter friendly.
HR%: HR / (AB-SO), just trying to get percentage of BIP that go for HR
BF/IP (batters faced / innings pitched): to see how quickly a pitcher gets through an inning
UER% (unearned run percentage)
RA (run average)
RS (runs saved): lgR - R
RS200 (runs saved per 200 innings)
RA+: scaled just as ERA+, using RA instead
FIPRS (FIP runs saved)
FIP+: scaled just as ERA+, using FIP instead

CAIRO Projected 2010 AL East Standings as of January 16

Obviously it's way too early to make much of these, but here's how I have the AL East projected with CAIRO given current rosters and my estimated playing times.

Team	W	L	RS	RA	Div%	WC%	PL%
Yankees	100.3	61.7	864	664	66.4%	24.5%	90.9%
Red Sox	94.9	67.1	861	700	26.1%	44.8%	70.9%
Rays	89.3	72.7	804	706	7.4%	21.9%	29.3%
Blue Jays	70.1	91.9	696	761	-	0.2%	0.2%
Orioles	70.4	91.6	778	854	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%

W: Average projected win total
L: Average projected loss total
RS: Projected runs scored
RA: Projected runs allowed
Div%: Percentage of times team won division
WC%: Percentage of times team won wild card
PL%: Percentage of times team made the playoffs (Div% + WC%)

Although it looks like Boston's offense is on par with the Yankees superficially, it's not once you consider the park factors. The Yankees are probably about forty runs better than Boston offensively in a neutral park right now, although the converse applies to the pitching staffs.

Interestingly enough, for all the talk about Boston's great defense, they're not even the best defense in the division, with Tampa Bay projecting close to 20 runs better than Boston.

Anyway, expect lots to change before we can really have useful projected standings, so please don't take these too seriously.

--Posted at 11:22 am by SG / 35 Comments | - (50)

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Thursday, January 14, 2010

Javier Vazquez’s Pitch Selection, 2007 - 2009

I was thinking about the likeilhood of Javier Vazquez's 2009 being indicative of a possible change in approach that may mean he's more likely to sustain the gains made, so I pulled his Pitch FX data from 2007 through 2009 to see if it showed anything interesting. Keep in mind that Pitch FX data is not complete from 2007-2009.

First, here's a look at his pitch selection, broken down by season and type.

Type	2007	%	2008	%	2009	%
Four-seam fastball	1368	59.0%	1727	54.8%	1502	47.1%
Change-up	350	15.1%	387	12.3%	474	14.9%
Slider	365	15.8%	637	20.2%	739	23.2%
Curveball	234	10.1%	398	12.6%	472	14.8%
Total	2317		3149		3187

This breakdown screams for pie charts, so here they are.



In 2009 Vazquez threw fewer fastballs, while increasing his slider and curveball usage according to these numbers.

This next table just looks at the wOBA against each of the pitches. This only applies when a pitch is the decisive pitch of a plate apearance.

Type	2007	+/-	2008	+/-	2009	+/-
Four-seam fastball	.298	.013	.330	.007	.298	.011
Change-up	.295	.010	.323	.001	.240	-.047
Slider	.276	-.008	.338	.016	.295	.008
Curveball	.221	-.063	.274	-.048	.276	-.011
Total	.284		.322	.000	.287

The +/- column is just the difference between the wOBA for the specific pitch compared to the overall wOBA hea llowed in that season. So we see in 2009, for example, that he his changeup was his most effective pitch. as batters had a wOBA of .240 against it, compared to his overall wOBA against of .287. A difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 650 PAs.

Lastly, here's a more detailed breakdown of his pitch selection.

Type (2007)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %	break_y	break_angle	break_length
Fastball	1296	98.2	86.0	92.5	32.7%	8.6%	22.8%	18.6%	10.7%	3.8%	0.2%	24.1	35.4	5.2
Four-seam fastball	72	97.0	90.1	93.4	37.5%	11.1%	15.3%	19.4%	9.7%	5.6%	0.0%	23.6	54.0	4.8
Change-up	350	89.5	59.2	82.8	35.7%	16.0%	12.6%	11.7%	14.9%	3.7%	0.3%	24.1	22.6	7.7
Slider	365	92.4	75.5	84.8	32.6%	13.7%	15.9%	17.3%	11.2%	6.0%	0.3%	24.2	-6.9	7.6
Curveball	234	82.1	65.7	75.7	38.5%	12.4%	9.0%	21.4%	11.5%	3.8%	0.0%	24.0	-13.1	12.9
Total	2317	98.2	59.2	85.8	33.9%	11.0%	18.5%	17.7%	11.5%	4.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Type (2008)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %	break_y	break_angle	break_length
Fastball	1693	97.1	86.0	91.8	32.5%	8.2%	22.3%	18.1%	11.3%	4.8%	0.1%	23.7	36.2	4.6
Four-seam fastball	34	95.4	89.0	92.6	35.3%	11.8%	17.6%	8.8%	23.5%	2.9%	0.0%	23.6	53.1	5.0
Change-up	387	89.6	72.4	81.9	35.7%	16.3%	17.1%	9.0%	12.4%	3.6%	0.0%	23.8	21.1	7.2
Slider	637	90.8	77.6	84.6	29.2%	14.4%	20.3%	14.4%	12.6%	4.7%	0.2%	23.8	-6.0	7.3
Curveball	398	84.6	63.5	74.0	33.7%	9.3%	15.3%	22.4%	10.6%	2.8%	0.5%	23.8	-13.4	13.1
Total	3149	97.1	63.5	85.0	32.4%	10.6%	20.3%	16.7%	11.7%	4.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Type (2009)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %	break_y	break_angle	break_length
Four-seam fastball	1502	94.8	85.3	91.2	29.2%	8.4%	20.9%	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	0.1%	23.8	31.9	4.7
Change-up	474	88.1	70.8	80.2	38.0%	21.5%	12.9%	7.4%	12.0%	1.7%	0.4%	23.8	20.2	7.5
Slider	739	89.7	68.9	83.1	30.7%	13.4%	16.0%	19.6%	12.3%	4.3%	0.0%	23.9	-8.2	7.9
Curveball	472	82.2	64.0	72.5	29.7%	17.8%	10.6%	21.6%	12.1%	3.6%	0.0%	23.8	-12.6	13.8
Total	3187	94.8	64.0	81.8	30.9%	12.9%	17.0%	19.0%	12.3%	4.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
break_y: the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs(definition taken from this site
break_angle: the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively;
break_length: the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory.

Because of the league switch, I don't know how much I'd read into some of the peripheral improvements we see in his 2009 line.

Anyway, I'm not sure how much this tells us, but I figured it beats talking about signing Reed Johnson.

--Posted at 10:20 am by SG / 107 Comments | - (81)

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Yahoo: Johnny Damon may return to Yankees

The Yanks have plenty of personnel by this point but there still remains the chance that Damon could return to the team but now it's looking the Yankees might only offer him one year and $6 million or $7 million. Damon probably doesn't love the idea of taking such a huge pay cut.

While I have made the case that the Yankees can survive with a LF platoon of TSBG + a right-handed complement, at a certain point Damon's price may drop to the point where it's a no-brainer to bring him back. What's that price? Let's assume a one-year deal is the only thing worth considering given Damon's age. Here's what CAIRO sees as Damon's percentile forecasts as a LF for the Yankees in 2010.

Player	johnny damon
Age	36
pPos	lf
pTm	nya

%	PA	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA	aRS	WAR	$$
80%	683	29	.285	.373	.489	111	41	.376	-1	4.0	$17,971,486
65%	663	26	.274	.359	.459	99	30	.357	-1	2.9	$13,146,822
Baseline	650	23	.264	.344	.429	87	20	.339	-1	1.9	$8,664,608
35%	618	19	.253	.327	.402	75	11	.321	-1	1.1	$4,727,805
20%	585	16	.242	.310	.376	64	3	.302	-1	0.3	$1,162,960
2009	626	12	.283	.359	.485	96	31	.364	-1	3.0	$13,697,976

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
aRS: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + aRS divided by 10)
$$ Value assuming a marginal win cost of $4,500,000

Seems to me that any one year deal in the $5-7 is likely to be a good value for the Yankees. It would also hedge against the risk that any one of Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher or Nick Johnson miss time in 2010.

--Posted at 9:47 am by SG / 171 Comments | - (59)

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Monday, January 11, 2010

MLB.com: MLB announces 2010 Spring Training schedule

The Yankees Spring Training schedule is up at MLB.com.  Looks like a few games will air on ESPN in addition to a bunch of YES games.

--Posted at 11:28 am by Jonathan / 39 Comments | - (38)

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Sunday, January 10, 2010

NY Post: Derek Jeter, Minka Kelly set to become Mr. and Mrs. ‘November’

After months of speculation that the Yankees’ hunk and his sexy steady Minka Kelly are headed to the altar, The Post has learned that the super couple may have settled on a wedding date—Nov. 5.

And while it may bring little solace to Jeter’s legion of female admirers, fretful Yankees fans will be glad to note the date is at least two days after the World Series ends.

Plenty of time to get ready for the big day, especially since they’ll sweep the Series.

--Posted at 6:11 pm by Jonathan / 9 Comments | - (35)

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Friday, January 8, 2010

MLB.com: Long already hard at work with Yankees

NEW YORK—While the rest of baseball clings to its last weeks of Hot Stove hibernation, Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long has already rolled into the new season, logging frequent-flyer miles to put in batting cage hours with several players.

Long is spending this week overseeing Alex Rodriguez’s first swings of 2010 and has already spent a good chunk of the winter helping Nick Swisher. A visit with Curtis Granderson is also ahead, as Long sacrifices his down time in the hopes that New York’s offense will be a dominant force as they defend the World Series title.

When I saw this headline I had a Terrence Long flashback.  Thankfully it’s not him that they’re talking about.

--Posted at 8:25 am by SG / 110 Comments | - (52)

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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

So How Good Might the 2010 Red Sox Defense Be?

As Yankee fans, we generally keep an eye on our divisional rivals in the North East. In 2009, the Red Sox fell short of a strong Yankee team before bowing out to the Los Angeles Angels of California in the ALDS. While the Red Sox had a good overall season winning 95 games and taking the wild card, one area where they were pretty poor was on defense.

Here's how the Red Sox rated at each position defensively in 2009 using standard zone rating and UZR.

TM	POS	zRS	uRS	aRS
Bos	1B	3	5	4
Bos	2B	7	9	8
Bos	3B	-7	-12	-9
Bos	CF	-11	-20	-15
Bos	LF	-21	-12	-17
Bos	RF	-1	9	4
Bos	SS	-7	8	0
Bos	Total	-36	-14	-25

zRS: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating
uRS: Defensive runs saved above average using UZR
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS

The primary big disparity between ZR and UZR is the Green Monster. Standard zone rating counts chances off the wall as playable for some bizarre reason, whereas UZR does not. Shortstop also seems diametrically opposite. When UZR is better than zone rating, it usually means the position saw a higher than normal distribution of difficult chances. Zone rating treats all chances the same, whereas UZR adjusts for batted ball velocity, handedness of the batter/pitcher and GB/FB tendencies which should help adjust for the difficulty of chances.

Because of the issues with LF and SS, the Red Sox were probably closer to a -14 team than a -36 team. Either way, they weren't very good.

Jason Bay has generally not been a good defender, and as a Met he's no longer their problem. Even though Jacoby Ellsbury is really fast and looks like a good defender, the metrics were less than impressed. Mike Lowell's hip issue severely impacted his lateral range, and it looks like he's not long for Boston at this point.

In signing Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro as the replacements for Bay, Lowell and Nick Green, the Red Sox signed three players who are good defenders. Adding them to Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and J.D. Drew who are all good defenders appears to turn a Red Sox weakness into a strength.

So how much of a strength is it? Here's how CAIRO has what looks like their primary roster projected offensively and defensively.

Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Jacoby Ellsbury	lf	640	.291/.348/.403	85	418	18	2	2.1
Dustin Pedroia	2b	650	.304/.373/.458	96	408	34	8	4.2
Victor Martinez	C	575	.299/.376/.474	85	359	35	0	3.5
Kevin Youkilis	1b	615	.290/.392/.499	99	374	29	4	3.3
David Ortiz	dh	600	.264/.371/.507	94	377	21	0	2.1
J.D. Drew	rf	525	.269/.383/.472	79	324	23	2	2.5
Mike Cameron	cf	600	.244/.332/.431	77	401	19	5	2.4
Adrian Beltre	3b	575	.264/.315/.439	66	397	8	8	1.6
Marco Scutaro	ss	560	.273/.354/.388	67	362	18	3	2.0
Starters Total		5340	.277/.360/.449	748	3418	204	33	23.8
Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Jeremy Hermida	lf	355	.259/.340/.427	45	234	8	-3	0.5
Bill Hall	3b	234	.218/.287/.390	23	167	0	2	0.2
Jason Varitek	c	215	.221/.325/.368	23	145	4	0	0.4
Jed Lowrie	ss	120	.251/.332/.414	15	80	4	0	0.4
Tug Hulett	2b	80	.235/.308/.359	8	55	0	0	0.0
Bench Total		1004	.238/.321/.399	114	682	16	-1	1.5
Player	PA	BR	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Team Total	6344	861	.271/.354/.441	4100	220	32	25.5

BR: Absolute linear weights batting runs based on estimated playing time, not adjusted for position.
Outs: Outs made while batting. Team outs should add up to around 4100 over a full season.
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level at position.
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR pro-rated to projected playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS).

Moving Ellsbury to LF from CF makes him a plus defender according to my projections, so it looks like the Red Sox can run out a defense that is at least average at every position (I'm not including catchers for now, so Victor Martinez may change that). If these numbers are to be believed, the red Sox have probably made themselves 40 to 50 runs better defensively with the moves they've made this offseason.

Standard caveats about defensive metrics having more uncertainty than offensive or pitching metrics apply here, so don't take this as definitive proof or anything.

I haven't really finalized their pitching depth chart so I'm not going to post it yet, but with the one I have worked up they look like a .598 Pythagenpat team right now, which is .025 points worse than the Yankees were when I ran their numbers. That's the difference between a 97 win team and 101 win team in a neutral league, though we probably want to knock off a couple of wins frome each team to account for being in the AL East.

So right now, I still think the Yankees are better by a few games, but in a 162 game season that's not much of a difference, and of course a lot can change between now and the end of the 2010 season.

--Posted at 8:21 pm by SG / 71 Comments | - (54)

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2009 vs. 2008 Yankees by Position (Defense Edition)

I'm using the same idea as in yesterday's post, just looking at the total run saved compare to average by position instead of by individuals. I don't have my catcher defense spreadsheet handy so for now that's not included.

YEAR	TM	POS	zRS	uRS	aRS	Diff
2008	NYY	1B	-13	-9	-11
2009	NYY	1B	9	-3	3	14
2008	NYY	2B	-5	-7	-6
2009	NYY	2B	-4	-5	-4	2
2008	NYY	3B	-7	-9	-8
2009	NYY	3B	-13	-15	-14	-6
2008	NYY	CF	10	2	6
2009	NYY	CF	3	9	6	0
2008	NYY	LF	-11	7	-2
2009	NYY	LF	-3	-12	-7	-5
2008	NYY	RF	-22	-24	-23
2009	NYY	RF	-5	-3	-4	19
2008	NYY	SS	2	0	1
2009	NYY	SS	-1	7	3	2
2008	NYY	Total	-46	-40	-43
2009	NYY	Total	-15	-21	-18	25

zRS: Defensive runs saved above average using zone rating
uRS: Defensive runs saved above average using UZR
aRS: Average of zRS and uRS
Diff: 2009 aRS minus 2008 aRS. A positive number indicates an improvement at the position, a negative number indicates a decline.

The 3B decline is in large part due to Messrs. Ransom and Berroa (Combined - 6 in zone rating, and -7 in UZR). Otherwise, every position but Yankee LF rated better defensively in 2009 than 2008.

--Posted at 11:01 am by SG / 63 Comments | - (47)

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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

2009 vs. 2008 Yankees by Position

A lot has been made about the Yankees improving at just about every position in 2009, something that is very unlikely to happen. I thought it would be interesting to look at the differences in terms of positional splits rather than by individual players to see what it looks like, so here it is.

Year	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	wOBA	BR	Diff
2008	1B	674	.246/.349/.460	.344	93
2009	1B	748	.292/.386/.566	.394	136	43
2008	2B	661	.265/.299/.404	.298	70
2009	2B	693	.317/.348/.512	.362	108	37
2008	3B	696	.283/.364/.511	.374	112
2009	3B	688	.271/.374/.461	.363	103	-10
2008	C	608	.230/.290/.335	.271	54
2009	C	660	.269/.330/.438	.328	85	31
2008	CF	676	.261/.320/.391	.315	78
2009	CF	663	.273/.338/.400	.324	77	-1
2008	DH	662	.282/.378/.461	.366	99
2009	DH	666	.271/.363/.495	.364	103	4
2008	LF	714	.284/.349/.427	.338	94
2009	LF	747	.276/.353/.486	.358	113	19
2008	RF	724	.290/.362/.451	.350	103
2009	RF	697	.250/.359/.480	.352	104	1
2008	SS	731	.295/.359/.402	.340	90
2009	SS	765	.332/.401/.467	.382	120	30

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted
Diff: 2009 BR minus 2008 BR. Even though there are PA disparities, that's function of a better overall offense and should also be part of the equation so I didn't do any pro-rating.
Obviously adding Mark Teixeira was huge, but getting a mostly healthy Jorge Posada back, and better seasons by Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter and the Greedy Trader were just as important.

I was on a mini-vacation over the New Year's long weekend, so I'm going to try and get caught up on any of the questions in the prior entries but if anyone wants to ask them again in this thread go ahead.

--Posted at 9:14 am by SG / 85 Comments | - (49)

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Saturday, January 2, 2010

Happy Yankee Day!

It’s a few hours early, but since I likely won’t be blogging on a Sunday morning, and I rarely blog at all ... just wanted to wish all of you a very happy Yankee Day!

The hell’s a Yankee Day? Well, back when I used to have regular access to BBTF and would scribble over there I declared January 3 to be Yankee Day. Why?

Simple, the two most significant events in the history of the franchise are credited to have occurred that day. In 1973, George Steinbrenner paid CBS $10 million for the Yankees. Adjusted for inflation that’s roughly 2.1 million dollars in 2008 funds. Just absurd.

Going back into history, Baseball Reference cites Jan. 3, 1920 as the day the transaction sending George Herman “Babe” Ruth to the Yankees was processed. I’ve since seen it elsewhere credited to dates in December, but since that doesn’t fit with my narrative, I choose to ignore it.

So, tomorrow during the Giants meaningless game and the impending Jets collapse, raise a glass to the Bronx Bombers, because really - it’s their day.

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On a separate note, allow me to plug the Hall of Fame’s VIP experience. I went last year as a belated birthday gift, but for a reasonable hotel rate, you get a couple nights in Cooperstown at a time of the year when you’ll have the town to yourself, a more or less private afterhours viewing of the museum and a tour of the library and a look at some rare, undisplayed items. For example, last year I got my picture taken holding one of the promissory notes from the aforementioned Babe Ruth sale.

I mention this because as you can see, they’ll be doing weekend on March 11-12 dedicated to the Yankees, which may be of interest to some of you.

 

 

--Posted at 10:50 pm by Sean McNally / 100 Comments | - (35)

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Thursday, December 31, 2009

Minor League Ball - Sickels: New York Yankees Top 20 Prospects for 2010

1) Jesus Montero, C, Grade A: I know that his position is up in the air, but I love this bat so much that I’m going to give him a straight Grade A. This is a Mike Piazza/Manny Ramirez type bat.

2) Austin Romine, C, Grade B: Not in Montero’s class as a hitter, but he’s not bad, should improve further, and is much better defensively.

3) Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline Grade B. Intriguing young lefty, undersized but has a very good arm and has performed quite well thus far.

4) Zach McAllister, RHP, Grade B-: Strike-throwing-ground-ball-generating-inning-gobbler with advanced pitching feel. A fifth starter, long reliever, or trade bait in New York.

5) Slade Heathcott, OF, Grade B-: Excellent tools, will have to see how his skills develop, and if he overcomes concerns about his makeup from high school.
...

Montero looks like he may have a chance for a cup of coffee in the bigs.

Happy New Year to everyone who doesn’t root for the Red Sox.

--Posted at 4:37 pm by SG / 44 Comments | - (43)

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Tuesday, December 29, 2009

How Susceptible Might the Yankees be to LHP in 2010?

I was thinking about the Yankees going into 2010 with the team they have now and how big of a hole LF might be. A Brett Gardner/Jamie Hoffmann platoon is not particularly impressive, but how bad might it be? The other concern is if Curtis Granderson's platoon splits in CF vs. LHP makes the Yankees particularly poor in matchups with LHP.

So here's a quick look at two Yankee lineups, one vs. RHP and one vs. LHP. I'm using platoon splits based on what a player's done to this point in his career, but regressed towards the mean platoon split for same-handed batters using 2000 PAs. So in the case of Granderson, his projected 2010 platoon splits would be based on 685 PAs of his career platoon splits combined with 2000 PAs of the average LHB's platoon splits.

Vs. RHP

Ord	Player	Pos	PA	vs RHP
1	Derek Jeter	ss	5	.341
2	Nick Johnson	dh	5	.377
3	Mark Teixeira	1b	5	.390
4	Alex Rodriguez	3b	5	.386
5	Curtis Granderson	cf	5	.376
6	Jorge Posada	c	5	.348
7	Robinson Cano	2b	4	.373
8	Nick Swisher	rf	4	.347
9	Brett Gardner	lf	4	.340
			42	.365

Vs. LHP

Ord	Player	Pos	PA	vs LHP
1	Derek Jeter	ss	5	.375
2	Nick Johnson	dh	5	.377
3	Mark Teixeira	1b	5	.390
4	Alex Rodriguez	3b	5	.424
5	Jorge Posada	c	5	.358
6	Robinson Cano	2b	5	.341
7	Nick Swisher	rf	4	.357
8	Curtis Granderson	cf	4	.294
9	Jamie Hoffmann	lf	4	.324
			42	.362

vs. RHP: CAIRO projected wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers
vs. LHP: CAIRO projected wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers

I'm using 42 PAs to equal roughly one game. I'm assuming a Brett Gardner/Jamie Hoffmann platoon in LF, and am adjusting the batting order to move Granderson down vs. LHP. While the Yankees could conceivably put Granderson in LF, it doesn't project to save more than five runs over the course of the season and may not be worth the hassle of shifting Granderson around between LF and CF.

As far as what these two lineups tell us, three points of wOBA over a full season (around 6400 PAs) translates to around 14 runs. While Granderson falls off significantly vs. lefties, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher all have hit better vs. them. Nick Johnson's actually hit lefties better than righties in his career so when he gets regressed he ends up with a roughly even split.

For all the consternation about going into the season with a TSBG/Hoffmann platoon in LF, once we factor in baserunning and defense it's really not a bad thing. If we assume that TSBG will get 450 PAs and Hoffmann 225, that's a collective wOBA of around .334, which is a run or so better than a league average hitter. I've got a league average LF projected to have around a .338 wOBA, which makes a 675 PA TSBG/Hoffmann platoon about three runs below average with the bat. Add their projected 44 SB/11 CS to that and you get another 5.5 runs of offensive value. That makes them essentially league average, or 2.0 wins above replacement. Add in defense and they could potentially be 3 or 3.5 WAR.

If the Yankees sign someone like Reed Johnson to spell Granderson in CF from time to time versus lefties, the gap between the two lineups shrinks a bit more.

One concern that this analysis doesn't account for would be the ability for an opponent to match up against Granderson in high leverage situations, but I'm not sure how much of an impact that is over the course of a season. You'd need to have Granderson as possibly one of the last hopes, batting in the later innings of a game with men on base and the Yankees trailing against a team that has a competent left-handed reliever for that to manifest itself. That can and will certainly happen in 2010. But how often will it happen?

Anyway, getting back to the topic of the Yankees susceptiblity against LHP, I don't think it's a problem. And no, I don't think the Yankees "need" to add a LF, either. If they can get a righty hitter who can play capable defense, it'd be a good move, but I don't think it's critical.

--Posted at 1:43 pm by SG / 100 Comments | - (44)

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Sunday, December 27, 2009

MLB.com: World renowned: Yanks achieve their goal

The Yankees’ 2009 campaign could not have gone much more perfectly if it had been scripted from the desk of George M. Steinbrenner himself.

Not only did the Yankees open the doors to their gleaming new cathedral across 161st Street, filling it with the top stars from the free-agent market, but they were able to finally celebrate as the last team standing, bringing home their 27th World Series championship.

Hoch recaps the Yankees’ 2009 run month by month, beginning in January.  There are a few things I forgot about in there.

Also:
Yankees interested in Jermaine Dye?

No, they’re probably not.

--Posted at 5:07 pm by Jonathan / 141 Comments | - (78)

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Thursday, December 24, 2009

The Star-Ledger: Billy Martin remains one-of-a-kind

I’ll remember the Billy Martin who some days would sit back in the manager’s office and tell stories about his days as a Yankee player, mostly his escapades with Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford - classic stories, even if they were slightly exaggerated - and the way he beamed and laughed as he told them.

I’ll remember the Billy Martin who would go to extreme lengths to find baseball jobs for ex-players who were down on their luck. And the Billy Martin who couldn’t bring himself to tell fading veterans they were being cut. The tough guy was really a softie at heart.

This Moss H. Klein article on Billy Martin caught my eye.  The fiery Yankee manager died twenty years ago today.  I wasn’t old enough to witness the Martin era(s) but I’ve read (and seen) enough to know he was a heck of a Yankee manager.

Merry Christmas everyone!

--Posted at 11:09 pm by Jonathan / 25 Comments | - (46)

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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Re-assessing the 2010 Yankees as of December 23, 2009

Since I last assessed the Yankees for 2010, they’ve added Nick Johnson to DH and Javier Vazquez to slot into the rotation, so it’s probably a good time to use my CAIRO projections and re-assess them.

Here's how the lineup and bench looks now.

Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Derek Jeter	SS	625	.307/.371/.425	84	393	29	-4	2.5
Nick Johnson	DH	450	.271/.412/.418	65	265	10	0	1.0
Mark Teixeira	1b	670	.280/.379/.529	111	416	34	3	3.8
Alex Rodriguez	3b	605	.282/.389/.546	105	370	44	-4	4.0
Curtis Granderson	CF	625	.257/.338/.462	87	414	26	5	3.1
Jorge Posada	C	425	.266/.352/.455	58	276	21	-5	1.6
Robinson Cano	2b	625	.311/.348/.494	90	407	30	-1	3.0
Nick Swisher	RF	550	.235/.355/.444	74	355	16	0	1.6
Brett Gardner	LF	500	.262/.348/.351	59	326	7	2	0.9
Starters Total		5075	.277/.365/.463	733	3221	217	-2	21.5
Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Jamie Hoffmann	RF	350	.242/.317/.359	35	239	-2	2	0.0
Juan Miranda	1b	300	.247/.331/.427	37	201	3	0	0.3
Francisco Cervelli	C	250	.251/.322/.357	24	170	2	0	0.2
Ramiro Pena	SS	225	.240/.301/.316	19	157	-1	0	-0.1
Reegie Corona	2b	167	.246/.325/.335	17	113	1	0	0.1
Bench Total		1292	.245/.319/.363	131	879	2	2	0.4
Player	PA	BR	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Team Total	6367	864	.270/.356/.442	4100	219	-1	21.9

BR: Absolute linear weights batting runs based on estimated playing time, not adjusted for position.
Outs: Outs made while batting. Team outs should add up to around 4100 over a full season.
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level at position.
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR pro-rated to projected playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS).

I've held the playing time for the holdover starters constant to my last post, but the addition of Johnson and the subsequent increased PAs for the entire team, as well as more playing time for TSBG over Melky leads to the Yankee position players projecting to score about 21 more runs (from 843 to 864) than the team as of December 16 without Johnson. The defense is essentially unchanged, going from -2 to -1.

On the pitching side, there are two scenarios right now. One has Joba Chamberlain as the fifth starter and Phil Hughes in the pen, and the other has the converse. For now I'll assume that whomever loses the rotation spot battle isn't going to get any starts, so extra starts will go to the 6-8 pitchers.

With Joba in the rotation, the pitching staff looks like this:

Pitching	Role	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	K	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
CC Sabathia	SP1	200	179	77	72	15	49	7	176	3.48	3.24	3.26	55	5.5
Javier Vazquez	SP2	200	183	84	78	21	46	5	194	3.76	3.52	3.37	49	4.9
A.J. Burnett	SP3	175	161	84	78	18	72	8	169	4.30	4.02	3.95	33	3.3
Andy Pettitte	SP4	175	184	89	80	16	59	4	131	4.59	4.12	3.94	27	2.7
Joba Chamberlain	SP5	151	151	79	70	15	66	8	140	4.71	4.19	4.11	21	2.1
Chad Gaudin	SP6	50	48	28	26	5	22	2	41	5.04	4.64	4.30	5	0.5
Sergio Mitre	SP7	40	50	25	22	5	10	2	24	5.70	4.87	4.37	1	0.1
Zachary McAllister	SP8	40	48	26	23	5	15	0	21	5.87	5.12	4.73	0	0.0
Starter Total		1031	1004	492	449	98	338	0	897	4.30	3.92	3.68	192	19.2
Mariano Rivera	CL	69	51	20	18	5	11	2	71	2.55	2.36	2.70	21	2.1
Phil Hughes	SU	70	62	30	29	6	24	3	69	3.92	3.67	3.54	10	1.0
Damaso Marte	SU	50	48	25	21	5	18	2	49	4.54	3.81	3.76	4	0.4
David Robertson	MR	65	57	30	26	4	35	1	76	4.14	3.60	3.25	8	0.8
Alfredo Aceves	MR	65	66	35	33	9	16	2	45	4.87	4.60	4.42	3	0.3
Mark Melancon	MR	50	53	29	26	5	18	2	35	5.27	4.72	4.42	0	0.0
Edwar Ramirez	LR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.0
Kei Igawa	LR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.0
Ivan Nova	LR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.0
Reliever Total		369	337	170	153	34	123	12	345	4.14	3.74	3.64	46	4.6
Pitching Total		1400	1340	662	602	132	461	12	1242	4.25	3.87	3.67	238	23.8

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)

Flipping Hughes and Chamberlain looks like this:

Pitching	Role	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	K	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
CC Sabathia	SP1	200	179	77	72	15	49	7	176	3.48	3.24	3.26	55	5.5
Javier Vazquez	SP2	200	183	84	78	21	46	5	194	3.76	3.52	3.37	49	4.9
A.J. Burnett	SP3	175	161	84	78	18	72	8	169	4.30	4.02	3.95	33	3.3
Andy Pettitte	SP4	175	184	89	80	16	59	4	131	4.59	4.12	3.94	27	2.7
Phil Hughes	SP5	151	147	82	77	14	58	7	126	4.89	4.59	4.06	22	2.2
Chad Gaudin	SP6	50	48	28	26	5	22	2	41	5.04	4.64	4.30	5	0.5
Sergio Mitre	SP7	40	50	25	22	5	10	2	24	5.70	4.87	4.37	1	0.1
Zachary McAllister	SP8	40	48	26	23	5	15	0	21	5.87	5.12	4.73	0	0.0
Starter Total		1031	1001	495	456	97	330	0	883	4.32	3.98	3.68	193	19.3
Mariano Rivera	CL	69	51	20	18	5	11	2	71	2.55	2.36	2.70	21	2.1
Joba Chamberlain	SU	70	63	29	26	6	27	4	77	3.77	3.35	3.51	10	1.0
Damaso Marte	SU	50	48	25	21	5	18	2	49	4.54	3.81	3.76	4	0.4
David Robertson	MR	65	57	30	26	4	35	1	76	4.14	3.60	3.25	8	0.8
Alfredo Aceves	MR	65	66	35	33	9	16	2	45	4.87	4.60	4.42	3	0.3
Mark Melancon	MR	50	53	29	26	5	18	2	35	5.27	4.72	4.42	0	0.0
Edwar Ramirez	LR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.0
Kei Igawa	LR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.0
Ivan Nova	LR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.0
Reliever Total		369	338	168	151	35	126	12	353	4.11	3.68	3.63	45	4.5
Pitching Total		1400	1339	664	606	132	456	12	1236	4.27	3.90	3.66	239	23.9

Although Joba will be without innings limits this year, I restricted him to 151 to allow for a direct comparison with Hughes, who I believe will have an innings limit, although I'm guessing at the 151.

There is one key point about the pitching projections. Projection systems don't understand that player skill/talent is static and never changes. They incorrectly assume that a weighted average of the most recent seasons adjusted for context such as league, park and defense combined with regression towards the mean and adjusting for aging tells us more about a player than what that player may have done five or six years ago for a team. So even though Javier Vazquez projects to put up a nice 3.52 ERA, we know for a fact that he is going to have a 4.91 ERA in 2010 because that's what he did in 2004 for the same exact Yankee team in the same exact stadium against the same exact opposition he faced back then with the same exact pitching coach and the same exact defense behind him.

Anyway, I went a little conservative on the IP by the starters to account for the fact that expecting your entire rotation to stay healthy all season is not particularly realistic. In the Hughes rotation/Joba bullpen scenario, the Yankees' team would project to do this:

Component	R	WAR
Offense	864	21.9
Defense	-1	-0.1
Starting Pitchers	495	19.3
Relief Pitchers	168	4.5
RS/RA	864-663	45.8
Pythagenpat wpct	.623
W-L	101-61

And in the converse scenario, they'd project to do this:

Component	R	WAR
Offense	864	21.9
Defense	-1	-0.1
Starting Pitchers	492	19.2
Relief Pitchers	170	4.6
RS/RA	864-661	45.7
Pythagenpat wpct	.625
W-L	101-61

Last year's team projected to be about a 95 win team heading into the season, and although they won 103 games their Pythagenpat record was around 95-96 wins. So even though the Yankees have had a terrible offseason, they look like they're six wins better while costing no more than last year's team did. If they can find a league average LF they would pick up maybe one more win.

I'll sign up for terrible offseasons like this every year.

Update: Here's a more optimistic version of the position player depth chart:

Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Derek Jeter	SS	670	.307/.371/.425	90	421	31	-4	2.7
Nick Johnson	DH	560	.271/.412/.418	81	329	13	0	1.3
Mark Teixeira	1b	670	.280/.379/.529	111	416	34	3	3.8
Alex Rodriguez	3b	605	.282/.389/.546	105	370	44	-4	4.0
Curtis Granderson	CF	670	.257/.338/.462	93	444	28	6	3.4
Jorge Posada	C	475	.266/.352/.455	65	308	23	-5	1.8
Robinson Cano	2b	650	.311/.348/.494	93	424	31	-1	3.1
Nick Swisher	RF	620	.235/.355/.444	84	400	18	0	1.9
Brett Gardner	LF	525	.262/.348/.351	62	342	7	3	1.0
Starters Total		5445	.276/.366/.461	784	3454	230	-2	22.8
Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Jamie Hoffmann	RF	300	.242/.317/.359	30	205	-2	2	0.0
Juan Miranda	1b	200	.247/.331/.427	25	134	2	0	0.2
Francisco Cervelli	C	250	.251/.322/.357	24	170	2	0	0.2
Ramiro Pena	SS	100	.240/.301/.316	8	70	-1	0	-0.1
Reegie Corona	2b	100	.246/.325/.335	10	67	0	0	0.0
Bench Total		950	.245/.320/.365	97	646	2	2	0.3
Player	PA	BR	AVG/OBP/SLG	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Team Total	6395	881	.271/.359/.446	4100	232	-1	23.1

--Posted at 10:29 am by SG / 137 Comments | - (96)

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Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Are the Yankees trying to bring back Javier Vazquez?

That's what Joel Sherman's twittering or tweeting or twitting or whatever you kids call it.

#Yankees working hard to re-acquire Javier Vazquez, I have learned, link to follow soon

Maybe they should sign Randy Choate and trade for Juan Rivera then trade Choate + Rivera + Nick Johnson for him?
Update(9:46 am): Jon Heyman's saying a deal has been reached.

SI_JonHeyman
1. vazquez will be a pretty darned good 4th starter for #yankees. good job by cashman. melky is easily replaceable. 8 minutes ago from web
2. #yankees, #braves deal will send vazquez, boone logan to ny for melky, lhp mike dunn and a prospect. si.com story up soon 11 minutes ago from web

Uhm, Vazquez should be the #2 starter.

Update(9:52 am): Here's how Vazquez would project as a Yankee in 2010.

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	19	7	232	197	79	73	21	46	241	3.06	2.85	2.94	74.6	7.5
65%	17	8	222	195	83	78	23	47	223	3.39	3.17	3.22	62.9	6.3
Baseline	15	8	211	193	88	83	24	49	205	3.76	3.52	3.49	51.3	5.1
35%	13	8	190	180	84	78	24	47	178	3.96	3.72	3.76	41.9	4.2
20%	11	7	169	166	78	73	23	44	152	4.16	3.91	4.04	33.5	3.3
2009	15	10	219	181	82	76	22	42	228	3.35	3.12	3.06	63.4	6.3

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)

If you were to believe CAIRO, which is deadly accurate, the Yankees just added one of the top five starters in baseball. I'd temper that slightly because Vazquez has had a history of having better peripherals than actual performance (career FIP of 3.83 vs. career ERA of 4.19), but I don't think it's a stretch to say he's a #1 starter right now, who slots in nicely behind CC Sabathia.

Update(10:02 pm): Full trade is Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan from Atlanta for Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino is a very good prospect, but he's still pretty far from the majors. We know the deal with Melky, and Dunn has a great arm and horrible command. Seems like a fair trade to me. Boone Logan looks like filler, a lefty who projects around replacement level right now, although maybe he can be used as a LOOGY or something. Here's his CAIRO:

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	4	2	55	54	26	22	4	22	52	4.21	3.62	3.50	6.1	0.6
65%	3	3	53	55	29	25	5	24	46	4.89	4.24	4.10	1.9	0.2
Baseline	3	3	50	56	31	27	6	25	41	5.64	4.92	4.71	-2.4	-0.2
35%	2	3	45	54	31	27	6	25	34	6.15	5.39	5.31	-4.7	-0.5
20%	2	3	40	51	30	26	7	24	28	6.65	5.86	5.91	-6.4	-0.6
2009	1	1	17	21	13	11	1	9	10	6.79	5.66	4.55	-3.0	-0.3

--Posted at 9:35 am by SG / 243 Comments | - (108)

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Monday, December 21, 2009

NY Post: Yankees GM Cashman eyes starter by new year

With his everyday lineup for 2010 set, Cashman has turned attention to the rotation, and will almost certainly add a starter by New Year’s, according to a major league source.

Cashman is believed to have inquired about Carlos Zambrano, but with the Cubs’ asking price high for the 28-year-old right-hander—who is coming off an injury-plagued 2009—it’s more probable the Yankees will go the free-agent route.

That means selecting from a pool that includes Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro and Ben Sheets, any of whom would slot behind CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte in the Yankees’ rotation.

That’s a shallow pool.

Update (SG): Projections after the jump.

Here are the CAIRO projections for the three listed pitchers if we make them Yankees.

Jason Marquis

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	15	9	216	227	95	86	16	69	121	3.96	3.61	4.11	47.7	4.8
65%	13	10	206	225	100	91	18	71	110	4.37	4.00	4.38	36.1	3.6
Baseline	11	10	196	222	105	96	19	72	100	4.82	4.42	4.64	24.5	2.4
35%	10	10	176	206	99	91	19	68	85	5.06	4.65	4.91	17.4	1.7
20%	8	9	157	189	92	85	19	64	72	5.29	4.87	5.18	11.4	1.1
2009	15	13	216	242	95	89	15	76	110	3.97	3.71	4.23	47.4	4.7

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)

Joel Pineiro

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	12	7	174	180	74	67	14	26	95	3.85	3.47	3.64	40.6	4.1
65%	11	8	166	179	79	71	15	28	86	4.28	3.87	3.93	30.8	3.1
Baseline	9	8	158	177	83	76	17	29	78	4.75	4.31	4.21	21.0	2.1
35%	8	8	142	166	79	72	17	29	66	5.01	4.56	4.49	14.8	1.5
20%	7	7	126	152	74	68	17	28	55	5.27	4.81	4.77	9.5	0.9
2009	15	12	214	222	101	89	13	26	101	4.24	3.75	3.45	40.5	4.1

Ben Sheets

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	13	5	166	149	59	54	14	32	136	3.18	2.95	3.28	51.1	5.1
65%	12	6	159	148	63	58	15	34	124	3.56	3.31	3.59	42.0	4.2
Baseline	10	6	151	147	67	62	17	35	113	3.98	3.71	3.90	33.0	3.3
35%	9	6	136	138	64	60	17	34	97	4.23	3.95	4.21	26.0	2.6
20%	8	6	121	128	60	56	17	33	82	4.47	4.18	4.52	19.8	2.0

For the hell of it, here's how Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes project as starters.

Joba Chamberlain

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	15	8	204	188	87	77	17	79	203	3.85	3.40	3.59	47.6	4.8
65%	13	9	194	187	92	81	19	80	187	4.26	3.77	3.90	36.5	3.7
Baseline	11	9	185	184	97	86	20	80	172	4.71	4.19	4.21	25.5	2.5
35%	10	9	167	172	92	82	20	76	149	4.95	4.41	4.52	18.5	1.9
20%	8	8	148	158	85	76	20	71	127	5.19	4.64	4.83	12.5	1.3
2009	9	6	157	162	93	82	18	74	138	5.31	4.69	4.48	11.2	1.1

Phil Hughes

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	11	6	154	138	67	63	12	51	140	3.94	3.68	3.48	34.4	3.4
65%	10	7	147	137	72	67	13	53	128	4.39	4.11	3.82	25.4	2.5
Baseline	8	7	140	137	76	71	15	54	116	4.89	4.59	4.16	16.4	1.6
35%	7	7	126	128	72	68	15	52	100	5.17	4.86	4.50	10.8	1.1
20%	6	6	112	119	68	64	15	49	85	5.46	5.13	4.84	6.1	0.6
2009	8	3	86	66	31	29	7	27	100	3.20	3.00	2.96	26.2	2.6

If you could sign Marquis or Pineiro for one year and around $8 million, they wouldn't be awful fourth starters, but neither projects as better than Joba next year and you probably can't get either for one year. While I did project Sheets, I'd caution those projections with massive error bars, because he did not throw a single pitch last year and he had a surgery which may have taken something away from him.

Neither Joba or Hughes projects as a dominant starter, but their projections/performance in 2010 should not just be looked at in terms of their actual value, but also as part of the development curve towards hopefully establishing themselves as starters. While you shouldn't prioritize a single player's development over the team's overall goals, you probably shouldn't impede that potential development with a minimal at best upgrade.

So I'd say yes on Sheets if he'll sign for a moderate base with incentives, no on Marquis or Pineiro at any price. I'd also see about bringing Wang back.

On an unrelated note, if you wanted to read more about Chris Jaffe's book on evaluating managers, Was Watching has an excerpt up on Casey Stengel.

--Posted at 10:07 am by Jonathan / 178 Comments | - (65)

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Friday, December 18, 2009

NJ.com: Nick Johnson to NY Yankees a done deal, source says

The Yankees and Nick Johnson have agreed to the framework of a deal on Friday, according to a person with knowledge of the negotiations. The signing will become official pending a physical.

I figured I’d throw this up since it’s pretty much a done deal.  Good job, Mr. Cashman.

--Posted at 7:25 pm by Jonathan / 210 Comments | - (81)

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NBC Sports: Scott Boras “caved on the third year” for Johnny Damon, but it was too little too late

That’s what Mark Feinsand of the Daily News reports, however it still wasn’t enough to get a deal done for Damon as the Yankees wouldn’t pay him $13 million per, even for two years.

Assuming this is true, this is a case of Boras seriously misreading the market for his client, and ultimately doing him a disservice. Damon wanted nothing more than to play for the Yankees, telling Feinsand “I’m not quite sure what I’m going to do. I know there are some teams interested, but the Yankees are the best organization I’ve been a part of so far in my career.”

Have fun in Pittsburgh or Washington Johnny.

To be fair, I grew to like Damon more than I ever thought I would, and he was worth every penny of his contract.  He had every right to ask for whatever he wanted to, and the Yankees had every right to make the right business decision and not agree to it.  While I don’t think it’s likely he’s back at this point, I wouldn’t rule it out completely.

I’ll use this post to answer the questions that came up in the last thread after the jump.

Can we get a number crunch on NJ vs. Matsui?

Sure. Here's Matsui's CAIRO as a DH for the Yankees.

%	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
80%	126	504	439	73	129	26	3	22	86	63	64	1	2	0	7	.294	.383	.517	83	22	.389
65%	123	490	426	67	120	23	2	20	79	57	66	2	2	0	9	.281	.367	.481	73	14	.368
Baseline	120	480	418	62	112	20	1	17	73	53	69	3	1	1	10	.268	.350	.446	64	6	.347
35%	114	456	397	55	101	17	1	14	65	47	70	2	0	0	8	.256	.329	.413	54	-1	.324
20%	108	432	376	49	91	14	1	12	58	41	70	1	0	0	6	.243	.309	.381	45	-7	.302
2009	142	528	456	62	125	23	1	25	90	61	75	4	0	1	7	.275	.360	.494	79	15	.367

And here's Johnson's.

%	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
80%	109	463	370	67	110	26	2	14	60	90	64	6	4	1	9	.299	.447	.492	82	26	.418
65%	105	450	359	61	102	23	1	12	55	83	66	8	3	2	10	.285	.430	.455	73	18	.397
Baseline	103	441	352	56	95	20	1	10	50	77	69	9	3	2	12	.271	.412	.419	64	11	.377
35%	98	419	334	50	86	17	1	8	44	69	69	7	2	2	10	.257	.388	.385	54	4	.352
20%	93	397	317	44	77	14	1	6	39	62	69	5	1	1	8	.243	.363	.352	46	-3	.326
2009	130	574	457	71	131	23	2	8	62	96	84	12	2	4	17	.287	.416	.397	80	10	.371

DH replacement level is set to a league average hitter, which is why the BRAR for both players may seem lower than their lines would indicate.

While Matsui had a very good 2009 and an outstanding World Series, we can't ignore the fact that he will be 36 in 2010, and that he hadn't been as durable or as productive as he was this past season since at least 2005. While I think the fact that he'd primarily be DHing would continue to keep him healthier and more productive and he would likely exceed that CAIRO projection, there's a level of risk in assuming that.

Johnson's far from the picture of health himself, having missed the entire 2007 season and most of 2008. However, a weighted average of his playing time puts him at 441 PAs. Despite the 39 PA shortfall, he projects about 1/2 win better than Matsui. In addition to the fact that Johnson projects around five runs better, there's the added benefit that because of his high OBP, he allows the Yankees as a team more PAs. If we give Matsui and Johnson 500 PAs, Matsui would make 31 additional outs. If the Yankees score about five runs a game (27 outs) that's another half win that Johnson gives you that's not shown in his own value.

"Granderson + Johnson > Damon + Matsui"

Very much so. If we give each of them 500 PAs:

Damon, LF (1.5 WAR), Matsui, DH (0.6 WAR), Total 2.1 WAR
Granderson, CF (2.7 WAR), Johnson, DH (1.2 WAR), Total 3.9 WAR

CAIRO has Johnson producing 19 runs above average, but not sure how much that would change as a DH in NYS (SG?). But based on Miranda's projection in roughly the same number of PA's, he improves the Yankees by about 1.5 wins. So they go from a 92-93 win team in the AL East to 93-95.

Yeah, if you hold everything constant except for DH, with Miranda at DH for 463 PAs the Yankees would project to score around 843 runs. If you replace Miranda with Johnson for those 463 PAs, you score 12 more runs (855). However, as I mentioned above, you also get fewer outs (43 fewer). Add those extra PAs to the lineup, and you're up to 865 runs. So it's about a 2.0 win upgrade in total.

Nick Johnson has a special place in a lot of Yankees fans' hearts. Johnson arrived during a set of circumstances that converged like a perfect storm. For most fans who hadn't been exposed to the work of Bill James and Pete Palmer, our statistical enlightenment came on the internets in the late 90s and early 00s. Two of the key statistical tenets of the online baseball community were:
- OBP is the most important thing ever
- Proven veterans are expensive and overrated and can be replaced by minor leaguers at a lower cost

In addition, the internet made it a lot easier to follow prospects and minor leaguers. We didn't have to wait for Baseball America to come out every two weeks in print form to read month old stats for a bunch of players we never heard of. We were seeing articles and stat lines and scouting reports everywhere.

So you had Johnson, who was putting up ridiculous OBPs in the minors (.525 in 1999!). He was a prospect, which made him awesome. He would outhit proven veteran Tino Martinez at 1/10 the cost, or at the very least be a hell of DH.

Then he came up in 2001, and didn't hit much but showed the batting eye he was famous for. He hit about league average in 2002, and looked primed to break out in 2003, which he did, hitting .284/.422/.472. We bitched every time Joe Torre benched him for Todd Zeile or pinch-hit for him, and we dreamed about what he'd become as he reached his peak.

Then he was traded as part of a package for Javier Vazquez. Although I liked the trade at the time, it was tough to see Johnson go. Johnson's put up some decent years since then, but also suffered a lot of injuries and it's probably fair to say if he'd done what he's done to this point in his career with the Yankees we'd have considered it disappointing.

Still, it's good to have him back.

--Posted at 10:34 am by SG / 151 Comments | - (62)

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Thursday, December 17, 2009

NY Post: Yankees move closer to signing Johnson as DH

The Yankees and Nick Johnson are moving toward a one-year deal for the left-handed hitter to be the club’s DH, and it could be announced Friday morning.

Asked today by The Post if there was deal to be announced, Brian Cashman said, “Not at this moment.”

Johnson has drawn interest from the Mariners and Giants to play first base, a position that isn’t available to him as a Yankee because Mark Teixeira is entrenched there.

However, the chance to return to the Yankees, who picked Johnson in the third round of the 1996 draft and dealt him to Montreal in December 2003, is enticing to him.

It’s George King, so take it with a grain of salt.

Update (Jonathan): AP: A-Rod is A-OK: Doesn’t need more hip surgery

Rodriguez had surgery last March for torn cartilage and missed the first month of the season. At the time, Dr. Marc Philippon, who performed the operation, thought Rodriguez would need a more extensive procedure in the offseason.

But Philippon recently examined Rodriguez, and an MRI test helped show the three-time MVP had properly healed. The doctor told A-Rod that he was A-OK on Monday.

--Posted at 6:22 pm by SG / 128 Comments | - (70)

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MLB.com: Yanks, Johnson discuss return as DH

Slugger could receive incentive-laden deal with Bombers

Even with World Series MVP Hideki Matsui out of the picture, the Yankees could have a familiar face as their designated hitter in 2010.

According to The New York Post, the Bronx Bombers are in talks with Nick Johnson to replace Matsui, who signed one-year deal reportedly worth $6.5 million with the Angels on Wednesday.

Slugger?

Although Johnson’s a health risk, he’d make a good DH.  DHing may keep him healthier, and although he’s seemingly lost some power of late, the OBP is very attractive.  Here’s how he’d project as a Yankee in 2010.

 

%	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
80%	109	463	370	67	108	26	2	14	60	91	61	6	4	1	9	.293	.443	.488	81	25	.415
65%	106	450	359	61	100	23	2	12	55	83	64	8	3	2	10	.279	.426	.451	72	17	.394
Baseline	104	441	352	56	93	21	1	10	50	77	66	9	3	2	12	.265	.408	.415	63	10	.373
35%	98	419	335	50	84	17	1	8	44	69	67	7	2	2	10	.252	.384	.382	54	3	.348
20%	93	397	317	44	75	14	1	6	39	62	67	5	1	1	8	.238	.359	.348	45	-3	.323
2009	130	574	457	71	131	23	2	8	62	96	84	12	2	4	17	.287	.416	.397	80	10	.371

The 441 PAs are a weighted average of his 2006-2009 playing time, and it came out higher than I thought. Johnson would project about 1/2 win better than Mr. Greedy Trader would over the same playing time, but obviously projected durability is a positive for Damon and a negative for Johnson.

An incentive-laden deal would mitigate the cost of Johnson missing time, but it would not mitigate the fact that if Johnson misses time, the Yankee offense may be a bat short. So if the Yankees do go for Johnson, I'd still like to see them add someone that they can at least put in LF against lefties. Maybe Xavier Nady?

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 136 Comments | - (75)

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2009 Sporting News Pro Athlete of the Year: Mariano Rivera

On a team full of superstars, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera went about his usual way in 2009, dominating opponents and helping New York claim its 27th World Series.
Because of his performance - 44 saves, 1.76 ERA and five more postseason saves - Rivera is Sporting News’ Pro Athlete of the Year.

Can’t get enough of Mo.

--Posted at 8:30 am by Jonathan / 6 Comments | - (47)

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Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Assessing the 2010 Yankees as of December 16, 2009

I figured it’s time to take a look at how the Yankees’ roster for 2010 looks right now so we can see where the big holes are and speculate on how they should be resolved, so here’s how they look using CAIRO.

First, here’s my stab at the projected lineup and playing time.

Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Derek Jeter	SS	625	.307/.374/.425	84	391	29	-4	2.5
Curtis Granderson	CF	625	.257/.339/.462	87	413	26	5	3.1
Mark Teixeira	1B	670	.280/.380/.529	111	416	34	3	3.8
Alex Rodriguez	3b	605	.282/.389/.546	105	370	44	-4	4.0
Robinson Cano	2B	625	.311/.348/.494	90	407	30	-1	3.0
Jorge Posada	C	425	.266/.352/.455	58	276	21	-5	1.6
Nick Swisher	RF	550	.235/.356/.444	74	354	16	0	1.6
Melky Cabrera	LF	500	.263/.328/.390	56	336	4	-2	0.2
Juan Miranda	DH	463	.247/.331/.427	57	310	1	0	0.1
Starters Total		5088		722	3272	205	-7	19.8

BR: Absolute linear weights batting runs based on estimated playing time, not adjusted for position.
Outs: Outs made while batting. Team outs should add up to around 4100 over a full season.
BRAR: Batting runs above replacement level at position.
RS: Runs saved compared to average, using an average of zone rating and UZR pro-rated to projected playing time.
WAR: Wins above replacement (BRAR + RS)

Playing time is a bit optimistic here right now for most of the starters, but I did that intentionally so we can see exactly which positions profile as the weakest over a full season. Shocking no one, it’s LF and DH, although I should note that Melky’s defensive projection in LF does not factor in his CF numbers and is based on a very small sample. Since he projects a hair above average in CF(+2), it’s more likely than not that he’d be a plus defender in LF. Maybe a +7 or so.

The bench looks like this.

Player	Pos	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Francisco Cervelli	C	235	.251/.326/.357	23	158	2	0	0.2
Brett Gardner	CF	275	.262/.353/.351	32	178	6	5	1.1
Ramiro Pena	SS	240	.240/.306/.316	20	166	-2	0	-0.2
Kevin Russo	2B	175	.249/.313/.338	16	120	-1	0	-0.1
Jamie Hoffmann	CF	300	.242/.319/.359	30	204	1	0	0.1
Bench Total		1225		121	827	7	5	1.1

Adding that up gets us this.

Player	PA	BR	Outs	BRAR	RS	WAR
Team Total	6313	843	4100	212	-2	21.0

We can probably add about a win to that if we assume Melky’s a +7 defender in LF instead of a -2. My version of WAR sets replacement level a touch higher than most (around a 52 win team) so this means the Yankee position players would push the Yankees to around 73 wins. For every WAR they can add at DH or LF, add another win to that.

As far as what they should do, I’ll say this:
1) I hate the concept of a rotating DH. It makes the assumption that the Yankees will be healthy all year. As soon as you lose one of your starters, you are now facing a situation where you’ll have a replacement level hitter at a position that can only provide value on offense.
2) I’m starting to cool on the idea of bringing back Johnny Damon at almost any cost. His projection scares me (.264/.345/.427) even though I know projections are limited. His defense scares me, even though last year wasn’t bad enough to drag down his defensive projection far below average. While Damon has every right to ask for whatever he wants in his next contract, I have every right to be annoyed about him doing it and I think I am now.

The Yankees probably need at least one bat, and preferrably two. One to put at DH, and one to put in LF. Their current payroll commitment for 2010 is around $188M according to Cot’s. That seems reasonably close to their rumored budget in 2010, so I don’t know what they can do.

Here’s how the pitching staff looks.

Pitching	Role	IP	R	WAR
CC Sabathia	SP1	200	76	6.0
A.J. Burnett	SP2	180	84	3.8
Andy Pettitte	SP3	180	90	3.2
Joba Chamberlain	SP4	170	87	2.8
Phil Hughes	SP5	150	64	2.0
Chad Gaudin	SP6	60	33	0.8
Sergio Mitre	SP7	50	31	0.3
Zachary McAllister	SP8	25	16	0.1
Starter Total		1015	480	19.0
Mariano Rivera	CL	70	19	2.2
Damaso Marte	SU	50	25	0.5
David Robertson	SU	60	27	0.9
Alfredo Aceves	MR	70	37	0.5
Mark Melancon	MR	50	29	0.1
Romulo Sanchez	MR	50	33	-0.4
Edwar Ramirez	LR	25	13	0.2
Kei Igawa	LR	25	20	-0.5
Ivan Nova	LR	25	19	-0.4
Reliever Total		425	222	3.1
Pitching Total		1440	702	22.0

I’m just showing an estimated innings pitched and then the runs allowed over those innings for everyone, and how it translates to WAR. I use RA to calculate WAR, so it’s simply the difference in runs allowed over the projected innings compared to a replacement level pitcher.

I went a little more conservative here with the innings. CC’s projected to throw 230 but I knocked him down to 200. Burnett’s projected to throw 187, I knocked him down by a game, and also knocked Pettitte down by about 20 IP. I’m assuming Joba can throw 15 more innings than last year, and I’m also assuming Hughes’s prior time as a starter means he can get to 150 IP in 2010. Then I threw in some innings for Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre and Zach McAllister.

Using these estimated innings, the starters would project to be somewhere around 19.0 WAR, which is pretty good.

The bullpen ended up looking worse than I’d have expected. The top four are fine, but after that they’re essentially replacement level. Obviously we know that Mark Melancon is talented, but we also don’t know how good he’ll be in 2010. Romulo Sanchez has good stuff, but he’s never really done much with it, in either the majors or the minors. While I still think Edwar Ramirez can pitch at the major league level, the numbers right now aren’t too supportive. And even if Kei Igawa himself doesn’t actually pitch for the Yanks in 2010, someone who’ll give a similar performance very likely will which is why I have him in here.

Overall though, the pitching staff looks every bit as valuable as the position players, so this version of the Yankees on paper would look to be about 43.0 WAR in total. Add that to 52 and you get about a 95 win team. Looking at the runs scored (BR) and runs allowed (pitching and defense) and plugging it into Pythagenpat gives us a 94.8 - 67.2 record. In both cases we should subtract 2-3 wins from that to account for the AL East.

While this is encouraging, it makes a few big assumptions.
- Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will be healthy and effective in the rotation all year
- No disastrous injuries in the rest of the pitching staff
- Good health from all the starting position players
- At least replacement level play by the bench

So now the question becomes, what bat(s) should they add?

--Posted at 10:29 am by SG / 199 Comments | - (93)

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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Roy Halladay vs. Cliff Lee

Answering Rich‘s request, here’s how CAIRO would project Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee over the next four years.  Both are projected as Phillies with the same offense behind them.

Roy Halladay

Year	Age	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
2010	32	18	8	233	206	82	79	20	40	204	3.18	3.03	3.15	71.6	7.2
2011	33	17	8	224	199	81	75	19	37	183	3.25	3.00	3.24	67.3	6.7
2012	34	16	8	208	185	74	68	18	33	171	3.19	2.95	3.22	63.6	6.4
2013	35	15	7	198	176	71	66	17	32	163	3.25	3.01	3.25	59.5	6.0
Total		66	31	863	765	308	288	73	142	721	3.22	3.00	3.21	262.1	26.2

Cliff Lee

Year	Age	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
2010	31	17	9	233	231	97	88	20	51	189	3.73	3.39	3.43	57.5	5.7
2011	32	15	9	211	211	84	78	18	42	164	3.59	3.30	3.40	55.4	5.5
2012	33	14	8	200	199	80	73	17	39	149	3.59	3.31	3.46	52.3	5.2
2013	34	13	8	191	192	77	71	16	37	143	3.61	3.32	3.46	49.7	5.0
Total		59	35	835	834	337	309	71	169	645	3.63	3.33	3.43	214.9	21.5

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)

I upped Lee's 2010 forecast innings to match Halladay, but his 2007 still affects his 2010 forecast. Of course, an objective projection system shouldn't ignore that 2007, even if we have reasons to think it's irrelevant.

It's an upgrade for Philly in the area of about one win per season, even assuming they could've inked Lee to the same extension going forward, which doesn't sound like it was ever a realistic possibility.

--Posted at 6:39 pm by SG / 72 Comments | - (63)

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Monday, December 14, 2009

NY Times Bats Blog: Matsui Bound for Angels, Halladay to Philadelphia?

Matsui is a good fit for the Angels, whose incumbent designated hitter, Vladimir Guerrero, is also a free agent. From the Yankees’ perspective, losing him would be difficult in the sense that he has served them very well for seven years and never played for another major league team.

But the Yankees have not aggressively pursued Matsui, prioritizing left field and starting pitching over re-signing a player they consider a full-time D.H. because of his ravaged knees.

I understand why the Yankees didn’t pursue Matsui, but I’m still sad to see him go.  If it was me, I’d rather have Matsui at one year and $6.5M than Damon at whatever he ends up getting, even if Matsui can’t play the field.  You picked a hell of a way to go out Hideki.  Thanks.

While I don’t begrudge Damon for looking for a big payday, I’d pretty much cut off negotiations with him at this point and at least kick the tires on Holliday.  Anything in the 6 year, $100M range area seems fair.  If Damon doesn’t want to take a pay cut, then he’s going to be overpaid in 2010.

As far as Halladay to the Phils, seems like good news for the Yankees to me.  I hated the idea of the Yankees overpaying for Halladay in talent, or seeing him go to Boston, so any scenario that prevents either of those things from happening gets my approval.  I’ll do the requested Halladay/Lee comparison in the morning.

Oh, and Boston is supposedly signing John Lackey and Mike Cameron.  Good for them.  I hope all the scribes are writing their “How Boston Bought The World Series” articles now for when the Red Sox bring home the title in 2010.

--Posted at 11:29 pm by SG / 167 Comments | - (75)

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2010 CAIRO Projections v0.1

It took a little longer to get these done than I hoped due to time constraints, but here are the first iteration of the 2010 CAIROs for everyone.

2010 CAIRO Projections

These include position players, pitchers and separate defensive projections for zone rating, UZR and catchers.  For now free agents are listed with their last team. 

These will be updated to account for roster changes, changes in forecasted playing time, and if there are any obvious errors or bugs.  If there’s anyone that’s not projected that you’d like me to add, just ask for them here.

A few quick looks at what CAIRO sees in 2010.

Top Ten Projected Starting Pitchers

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Role	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	WAR
Roy Halladay	32	TOR	AL	SP	233	210	84	80	19	39	188	3.10	3.24	7.0
CC Sabathia	29	NYA	AL	SP	230	206	89	83	17	56	203	3.24	3.26	6.4
Felix Hernandez	23	SEA	AL	SP	215	193	84	78	17	70	191	3.25	3.52	5.9
Tim Lincecum	25	SFN	NL	SP	180	144	61	56	10	62	204	2.80	2.77	5.4
Javier Vazquez	33	ATL	NL	SP	211	181	82	77	22	52	222	3.27	3.26	5.3
Johan Santana	30	NYN	NL	SP	194	160	72	69	23	52	181	3.22	3.74	5.1
Dan Haren	29	ARI	NL	SP	220	207	91	85	25	43	209	3.49	3.42	4.9
Zack Greinke	26	KCA	AL	SP	185	186	74	63	15	47	180	3.07	3.12	4.9
Adam Wainwright	28	SLN	NL	SP	189	176	73	67	17	55	158	3.20	3.62	4.8
Justin Verlander	26	DET	AL	SP	217	204	98	89	19	69	213	3.71	3.44	4.6

CC + Roy wouldn't be a bad little 1-2 punch...

Top Ten Projected Relief Pitchers

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Role	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	WAR
Mariano Rivera	40	NYA	AL	RP	69	51	20	18	5	11	72	2.36	2.70	2.1
Joe Nathan	35	MIN	AL	RP	70	46	20	19	6	21	82	2.44	2.89	2.0
Jonathan Papelbon	29	BOS	AL	RP	68	55	20	19	5	19	76	2.57	2.86	1.9
Jonathan Broxton	25	LAN	NL	RP	71	48	22	21	4	27	96	2.65	2.49	1.8
Matt Thornton	33	CHA	AL	RP	68	55	24	23	5	21	76	3.01	2.82	1.6
Heath Bell	32	SDN	NL	RP	71	49	24	22	5	25	74	2.81	3.04	1.6
Darren Oliver	39	ANA	AL	RP	73	65	28	28	6	21	58	3.45	3.66	1.4
Joakim Soria	25	KCA	AL	RP	58	47	19	18	5	17	64	2.80	3.18	1.4
Takashi Saito	40	ATL	AL	RP	58	49	20	20	5	22	59	3.18	3.52	1.3
George Sherrill	32	LAN	NL	RP	61	46	21	20	4	27	62	2.88	3.43	1.3

As if you needed to see CAIRO to see who the best reliever in baseball is...

Top Six Projected Free Agent LF

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	PA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Matt Holliday	31	SLN	NL	LF	666	29	14	4.2
Johnny Damon	37	NYA	AL	LF	624	18	-1	1.7
Jack Cust	31	OAK	AL	LF	604	22	-5	1.7
Ryan Church	32	ATL	NL	LF	433	8	5	1.3
Jason Bay	32	BOS	AL	LF	645	34	-24	1.0
Jonny Gomes	30	CIN	NL	LF	424	12	-5	0.7

Update:The table above is adding ZR and UZR, not averaging them. Here's how the list should look.

Top Six Projected Free Agent LF

Player	Age	Tm	Lg	Pos	PA	BRAR	RS	WAR
Matt Holliday	31	SLN	NL	LF	666	29	7	3.5
Jason Bay	32	BOS	AL	LF	645	34	-12	2.2
Johnny Damon	37	NYA	AL	LF	624	18	-1	1.7
Jack Cust	31	OAK	AL	LF	604	22	-3	1.5
Ryan Church	32	ATL	NL	LF	433	8	3	1.1
Jonny Gomes	30	CIN	NL	LF	424	12	-3	0.9

The more I think about it, the less I want Damon back... Bay's defensive projection probably needs to be tempered with the Green Monster effect, but still, even if we make him a -10 defender, he's not worth what he's being offered, I don't think. He should probably be getting something like $10-11M a year, not $15M+.

--Posted at 9:30 am by SG / 257 Comments | - (119)

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Saturday, December 12, 2009

NJ.com: NY Yankees cut ties with Chien-Ming Wang

NEW YORK—The Yankees severed ties with pitcher Chien-Ming Wang on Saturday, most likely ending the right-hander’s once promising career in the Bronx.

“There’s no doubt that we had to make a tough decision,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said in a statement. “We are still hopeful that our relationship can continue, but those decisions are yet to be made.”

There’s still a chance Wang could end up back in pinstripes, but I really doubt it at this point.  I blame the archaic National League rules.

--Posted at 11:40 pm by Jonathan / 95 Comments | - (54)

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NY Times: Yanks Unlikely to Offer Wang a New Contract

The Yankees will make it official on Saturday, when it is highly likely they do not offer Wang a contract for 2010. That would make Wang a free agent, and it could make him a popular target for teams seeking a low-risk, high-reward starter.

Wang is eligible for salary arbitration, and the rules specify the Yankees must offer him at least $4 million, or 80 percent of his $5 million salary in 2009. That is more than the team wants to pay for a pitcher who had surgery on July 29 to repair a torn shoulder capsule.

The Yankees would like to re-sign Wang to a minor league deal to minimize their risk; if Wang makes the major league team, he would presumably be paid well. But as a free agent, of course, Wang could seek offers from all teams.

Wang’s agent, Alan Nero, said at the winter meetings that he was hopeful Wang could return by opening day. The Yankees believe it could take until June, and during the playoffs, Wang split the difference, saying he might return in May.

I’d like to see the Yankees bring Wang back on a minor league deal with incentives if he’s amenable to it, but I have a feeling some team’s going offer him more money than the Yankees may be willing to.  I’ll wish him well wherever he ends up, unless it’s northeast of New York.

The article also mentions that the Yankees will tender contracts to Melky Cabrera and Chad Gaudin, and are considering it for Sergio Mitre.  Those are the only players the Yankee need to make a decision on this year.

--Posted at 9:27 am by SG / 85 Comments | - (45)

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Friday, December 11, 2009

NorthJersey.com: Yanks get Jamie Hoffmann

INDIANAPOLIS -- In need of a right-handed hitting outfielder, the Yankees obtained Jamie Hoffmann through the Rule 5 Draft on Thursday. "We project him in the future as an everyday-type player," general manager Brian Cashman said of the 25-year-old's ability to hit for power and play all three outfield spots well.

Combined at Class AA and AAA this past season, Hoffmann batted .291, with 10 homers and 64 RBI in 358 at-bats. He went 4-for-22 (.182) with a homer and seven RBI in 14 games with the Dodgers, from whom he was selected. The Yankees controlled Washington's first overall selection, after trading reliever Brian Bruney to the Nationals.

Here's Hoffman's CAIRO projection for 2010.

%	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
80%	150	604	548	74	144	28	6	15	77	62	86	2	24	8	11	.264	.346	.418	78	20	.340
65%	146	587	532	68	135	25	5	13	71	57	88	3	21	9	13	.253	.331	.390	68	11	.322
Baseline	143	575	522	63	126	22	4	11	66	52	91	4	19	11	15	.242	.317	.361	58	2	.305
35%	136	546	495	56	115	19	4	9	58	46	91	3	16	9	12	.231	.299	.337	49	-4	.286
20%	129	518	469	49	104	16	4	7	52	40	90	2	13	7	10	.221	.281	.313	40	-10	.267
2009	110	442	390	53	95	20	5	7	55	45	74	5	12	10	12	.244	.328	.375	47	4	.314

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

That's not a very impressive set of projections, although the 80% projection would be pretty nice.

One of the points that has been made in a few places is that Hoffmann mashes lefties. In 2009, he hit .308/.432/.542 in 146 PAs vs. LHP compared to .281/.359/.401 in 273 PAs vs. RHP. That may seem to confirm him as a righty masher, but there are severe sample size issues there. Also worth noting, in his career he's hit .287/.362/.390 vs. LHP compared to .284/.353/.407 vs. RHP. So anyone that says he's a lefty masher is essentially basing it on 146 PAs.

If we apply the standard platoon split to Hoffmann's baseline projection, he'd project to hit .234/.306/.349 vs. RHP and .262/.343/.391 vs. LHP. If we apply it to his 80% projection he'd project to hit .254/.333/.404 vs. RHP and .285/.374/.452 vs. LHP.

Since I was asked, I ran his 2009 platoon splits through CAIRO,. I don't think it tells us anything useful, but if we do that he'd project to hit .219/.287/.327 vs. RHP and .296/.387/.441 vs. LHP in his baseline projection. And if we run it with his 80% projection he'd project to hit .239/.313/.379 vs. RHP and .322/.422/.510 vs. LHP.

Hoffmann's also supposedly got a good glove and can play all three OF positions.

He seems like a decent enough bench player, but given his age there isn't a whole lot of time for him to improve enough to be an "everyday-type player". That doesn't mean he can't become one, it just means it's unlikely.

If the Yankees are intent on keeping Hoffmann all year, they're going to have a glut of outfielders. Could this pave the way for a trade of Melky Cabrera or TSBG? Maybe.

Apparently, the White Sox and Royals have expressed an interest in Gardner. Gardner for Farnsworth?

--Posted at 12:17 pm by SG / 115 Comments | - (74)

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Thursday, December 10, 2009

Sanspo.com: Matsui, Hideki Matsui ultimatum! One year to the present six billion yen

Increasing the speed of the negotiations has residual Matsui was expected to race.  Car Racing “Indy 500” The winter meetings are held at venues, to reinforce the success the Yankees had two consecutive days. “Competition for the starting pitcher had a head injury from heating up.‘s By Pettitte was made to remain the top priority is greater”

Ando is GM Cashman (lantern) of floating expressions. Tigers outfielder Curtis Granderson from the previous day (28) agreed to acquire three-way trade. On this day the veteran left-handed Pettitte for one year $ 1175 million (about ¥ 3400 million billion) into the residual in.  Now off three starting pitchers and outfielders were reinforced two issues. DH was remaining.

“DH budget to remain. Conditions should do so hold down. (Here) I’ll have a choice,” said the GM and is very aggressive,  the DH is now completely off the “buyer’s market” So it.

Without reinforcement force have also proposed that each position player serves in turn appoint the rest.

Pettitte and early acquisition of the remainder of that we decided to Granderson, the target of 100 million salary next season total $ 9000 million (approximately ¥ 16.7 billion) over the limit the following prospect.

GM has appeared in the TV show “The next negotiating with Matsui, Damon,” Godzilla and Johnny Damon (36) revealed plans to launch a full-scale negotiations.  Matsui is also the annual $ 700 million next week (about 600 million ¥ 1600 million) of around one-year contract offer.  I think the final decision to move or stay close. Mezu prolonged negotiations, the deal seems to move much less get DH.

I think 3400 million billion for Pettitte is probably an overpay.  I also think $700 million per year is too much for Matsui.

And on what channel can I find the TV show “The next negotiating with Matsui, Damon”?

--Posted at 10:23 pm by SG / 71 Comments | - (61)

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This is Disturbing

I’m not sure what’s worse, that someone is online Googling for that or that this site comes up as a hit for it.

--Posted at 4:36 pm by SG / 77 Comments | - (58)

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What Cost Granderson?

Following up on yesterday’s post about Curtis Granderson, here’s a look at what the Yankees gave up in Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke.

The key player in the package is probably Jackson, who was generally considered the Yankees' second best position player prospect and played in AAA last year. Jackson's a very good athlete who was signed out of a committment to play point guard at Georgia Tech.

Although Jackson hit reasonably well this year for Scranton/WB (.300/.359/.406), a deeper look at his numbers could be a cause for concern. He struck out 130 times and needed a BABIP of .392 to hit that line. His BABIP in 2008 for Trenton was .346, and in 2007 it was .360. While it's possible his ability to get hits on balls in play has improved, it's doubtful that he could sustain a BABIP quite that high.

Jackson's power is also somewhat uninspiring, and probably the biggest reason I was somewhat concerned about how he'd do in the majors. Of course, that was a concern with Brett Gardner as well and at least in 2009 it was overblown.

Here's how CAIRO has Jackson projected for 2010.

%	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
80%	141	604	560	76	150	27	6	13	59	51	115	2	26	4	11	.269	.337	.410	77	19	.332
65%	137	587	544	69	140	24	5	11	54	46	117	3	23	5	13	.258	.323	.383	67	10	.315
Baseline	135	575	533	64	132	21	4	10	49	42	120	4	20	6	14	.247	.309	.355	57	1	.298
35%	128	546	507	57	120	18	4	8	43	37	120	3	17	5	12	.236	.292	.332	48	-5	.280
20%	121	518	480	50	108	15	4	6	38	32	118	2	14	3	10	.225	.274	.309	39	-11	.262
2009	132	550	510	59	123	17	6	4	49	35	134	5	18	3	14	.241	.296	.322	48	-6	.279

BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

Not a very inspiring range of projections. However, because of his age and his athleticism, Jackson almost certainly has the physical upside to make a big leap forward and blow away these projections.

If we forecast him through 2013 like we did with Granderson, here's how that looks.

Year	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
2010	22	575	533	64	132	21	4	10	49	42	120	4	20	6	14	.247	.309	.355	57	1	.298
2011	23	594	551	68	137	24	4	9	54	44	123	4	17	6	15	.249	.312	.359	59	2	.301
2012	24	607	563	70	142	25	4	9	56	45	124	4	20	5	15	.252	.316	.361	63	4	.304
2013	25	588	546	69	140	24	4	9	54	44	121	4	18	6	15	.256	.320	.367	62	5	.309
Total		2364	2193	271	551	95	17	37	213	176	488	16	76	24	59	.251	.314	.360	242	13	.303

If we run the same four year forecast but assume he hits his 80% projection in 2010, here's how it looks.

Year	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
2010	22	604	560	76	150	27	6	13	59	51	115	2	26	4	11	.269	.337	.410	77	19	.332
2011	23	606	562	73	145	26	5	11	58	48	120	3	20	5	14	.258	.324	.383	68	9	.316
2012	24	619	575	76	151	28	5	11	60	50	122	3	23	4	14	.262	.329	.386	72	12	.320
2013	25	602	559	75	149	28	5	11	59	49	119	3	21	5	13	.267	.335	.397	73	14	.327
Total		2431	2255	299	596	109	22	47	236	198	476	12	89	18	51	.264	.331	.394	290	55	.324

Again, I'll reiterate that Jackson almost definitely has the tools to exceed these projections, and I'll also mention that projection systems are inherently limited, even one as awesome as CAIRO.

Jackson supposedly has good speed, so he may also be able to derive more value from his defense and baserunning. If he can be a +5 defender in CF and a +5 baserunner, then he should be a better than replacement level option in CF.

A lot would have to break right for Jackson to end up being as valuable as Granderson projects to be though, and that's the key for the Yankees for the next four seasons.

Although Ian Kennedy didn't pitch well at all in 2008 and missed most of 2009 with an aneurysm and subsequent surgery, I am still somewhat bearish on him. I don't think his ceiling is much beyond third starter/league average, but that's a good thing to have. Hell, it just made Andy Pettitte $11.75M.

Here's how CAIRO saw Kennedy projecting as a Yankee.

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	11	8	165	160	79	69	12	67	135	4.29	3.77	3.87	25.7	2.6
65%	9	8	158	159	83	74	14	68	123	4.76	4.20	4.20	16.2	1.6
Baseline	8	9	150	158	88	78	15	69	112	5.28	4.68	4.52	6.8	0.7
35%	7	8	135	148	83	74	15	66	96	5.56	4.94	4.85	1.9	0.2
20%	6	8	120	136	78	69	15	62	81	5.84	5.21	5.18	-2.1	-0.2
2009	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.00	0.00	7.52	0.6	0.1

RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RSAR divided by 10)

That's not an awful projection, but it's worse than either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain. It's also worse than the following mystery pitcher's projection.

W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
8	8	150	145	84	77	17	66	124	5.04	4.64	4.43	10.8	1.1

This mystery pitcher is only two years older than IPK, and is on the Yankees already.

With Andy Pettitte back in the fold, and with CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett at the top of the rotation, the Yankees ostensibly want to use Hughes and Chamberlain in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. That means Kennedy and the mystery pitcher would probably be pitching in long relief or the minors waiting for a break.

Because Chad Gaudin projects at the very least to be as good as Kennedy, and has experience working out of the bullpen, and also has relative youth on his side, I think he made Kennedy expendable. Obviously, if you lose more than one starter you start to get in the Igawa zone, but maybe the Yankees feel comfortable that they have enough depth with Gaudin, Aceves, Zach McAllister and others to take that risk.

Lastly, the Yankees also gave up Phil Coke. I like Coke and think he'll be a useful lefty reliever, but he's an extreme fly ball pitcher who will give up a good amount of HRs, especially in DNYS.

Here are Coke's CAIRO projections for 2010.

%	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
80%	5	3	66	57	29	27	6	22	53	3.90	3.62	3.76	9.6	1.0
65%	4	3	63	59	32	29	7	23	47	4.51	4.20	4.31	4.9	0.5
Baseline	3	3	60	60	35	32	8	25	42	5.18	4.84	4.86	0.2	0.0
35%	3	3	54	57	34	32	8	24	35	5.62	5.27	5.40	-2.4	-0.2
20%	2	3	48	54	32	30	8	24	28	6.06	5.69	5.95	-4.5	-0.5

As a situational lefty reliever, Coke's a tactical option whose value is not necessarily going to be properly reflected in a normal runs saved above average/replacement level scale, but it doesn't seem like he's necessarily a big loss. Especially with Damaso Marte around. The Yankees also seem to like Michael Dunn a lot, although unless he makes a quantum leap forward with his command I don't think he's an option.

I also wouldn't be shocked if the Yankees made a play for Mike Gonzalez in a quest to rebuild the 2006 Pirates bullpen if they decided to bid on a Type A free agent for LF/DH, which would mean it wouldn't cost them a first round pick to go after Gonzalez.

I think too many people get hung up on the notion of "winning" a trade, and feel any trade that's not clearly an obvious win by their team's GM is a bad one. It shouldn't be that cut and dried though. A good trade should make sense on all sides and help all teams, and I think this trade does that for both the Tigers and the Yanks. The Dbacks, I'm not so sure...

Update: As requested, here's Kennedy's four year forecast if he hits his baseline projection in 2010.

Year	Age	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
2010	25	8	9	150	158	88	78	15	69	112	5.28	4.68	4.40	3.7	0.4
2011	26	9	10	174	181	103	92	17	82	130	5.34	4.76	4.45	3.1	0.3
2012	27	10	12	194	203	117	104	20	92	142	5.42	4.84	4.51	1.8	0.2
2013	28	11	12	210	221	123	110	21	99	152	5.27	4.69	4.47	5.5	0.5

And if he hit his 80% projection in 2010, his going-forward forecast would look more like this.

Year	Age	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RSAR	WAR
2010	25	11	8	165	160	79	69	12	67	135	4.29	3.77	3.76	22.2	2.2
2011	26	11	9	190	183	93	83	14	79	154	4.42	3.92	3.85	22.8	2.3
2012	27	13	10	212	205	106	94	16	90	169	4.48	3.98	3.90	24.0	2.4
2013	28	14	11	230	224	111	98	17	96	181	4.34	3.85	3.87	29.5	3.0

--Posted at 9:43 am by SG / 158 Comments | - (85)

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Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Breaking Down the Curtis Granderson Acquisition

Even though it’s not quite official, it’s probably close enough to write about, so here’s my take on the rumored Curtis Granderson trade.

According to reports, the Yankees got Granderson by trading Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke.

Granderson’s a left-handed hitting CF who will be 29 in 2010. In his career he has hit .272/.344/.484 while generally playing good defense in CF. Here’s a look at how Granderson projects offensively as a Yankee in 2010 according to CAIRO.

%	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
80%	162	709	630	117	175	34	16	32	82	83	127	2	24	2	3	.278	.366	.534	121	52	.385
65%	157	689	612	109	164	30	14	28	75	76	129	2	21	3	4	.268	.352	.501	107	41	.367
Baseline	154	675	600	101	154	27	12	25	70	70	132	3	19	4	5	.257	.338	.468	95	30	.348
35%	146	641	570	92	141	23	12	22	62	63	131	2	16	3	3	.247	.321	.443	83	21	.330
20%	138	608	540	82	128	20	12	18	55	56	129	1	13	2	2	.237	.304	.418	71	12	.312
2009	160	710	631	91	160	24	7.7	30	71	71	141	2	20	6	1	.254	.328	.460	97	28	.340

BRAR: Park and position-adjusted batting runs above replacement level
wOBA: Weighted on-base average

For those not familiar with CAIRO, the baseline projection is the primary projection that we should be looking at. However, since projections are inherently limited, the percentile forecast gives us a general range of what Granderson's projection looks within one standard deviation in each direction.

So offensively, Granderson's projected to be worth around 30 runs better than a replacement level CF. FWIW, over 675 PAs, Granderson would project to be about 5 runs better than Johnny Damon offensively, but with the ability to play a good CF instead of a lousy LF.

Granderson also brings a pretty good glove, at least according to zone rating and UZR.

Player	Curtis Granderson
Position	cf
Year	Inn	zDiff	zRS	ARM	DPR	RngR	ErrR	UZR	aRS
2005	320	6	5	1	0	-1	1	0	3
2006	1312	7	6	0	0	12	1	14	10
2007	1285	10	9	5	0	9	1	14	12
2008	1188	3	3	-1	0	-8	0	-9	-3
2009	1266	9	7	-1	0	1	1	2	4
2010	1226	9	7	0	0	1	1	2	5

zDiff: Plays made compared to an average defender according to zo ne rating
zRS: Runs saved compared to an average defender according to zone rating
ARM: Runs saved by a player's arm compared to an average defender according to UZR
DPR: Runs saved in terms of turning double plays compared to an average defender according to UZR (for infielders)
RngR: Runs saved by a player's range compared to an average defender according to UZR
ErrR: Runs saved in terms of errors made/not made compared to an average defender according to UZR
UZR: Total runs saved compared to average (sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR)
aRS: Average of zRS and UZR

UZR is a little less enamored of Granderson than zone rating, but an average of the two puts him about a half win better than average.

In terms of non-SB baserunning, Granderson was two runs better than average in 2009, and about five runs better than average in 2008. So he'd probably project to be something like three runs above average.

So plus 30 offense, plus five defense and plus three baserunning gives you a player that should be worth around four wins above replacement level. Granderson is signed through 2012 at a total cost of $23.75M, then there's a team option for 2013 for $12M with a $2M buyout.

Here's how Granderson projects over the next four seasons.

Year	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR	BRAR	wOBA
2010	28	675	600	101	154	27	12	25	70	70	132	3	19	4	5	.257	.338	.468	95	30	.348
2011	29	643	572	96	148	26	11	24	65	68	125	3	17	4	4	.258	.340	.465	91	28	.349
2012	30	632	560	92	142	24	10	23	63	68	123	3	15	5	4	.253	.337	.455	86	25	.344
2013	31	622	553	89	140	24	9	23	62	67	123	3	14	5	3	.253	.336	.454	85	24	.344
Total		2572	2285	379	584	101	41	96	259	274	503	12	65	18	16	.255	.338	.461	357	108	.346

A lot has been made about Granderson's career platoon splits. .292/.367/.528 in 2211 PAs vs RHP, compared to .210/.270/.344 in 685 PAs vs LHP. I bolded the 685 PAs to make a point. 685 PAs is roughly equivalent to one full season. We wouldn't base our assessment of a player's true talent after 685 PAs in a single season, so why should we do it with Granderson vs. LHP?

We should expect Granderson (or any lefty hitter) to have a non-trivial platoon split. What we shouldn't assume is that a player's career platoon splits to date are what we should expect against LHP going forward, especially after only 685 PAs.

Another split that's interesting with Granderson is his home/road split. In his career he's hit .261/.334/.451 in 1442 PAs at home compared to .284/.353/.516 in 1454 PAs on the road. In general, players hit about 10% better at home. Unfortunately, it doesn't mean we can throw out his home splits and projected him to hit 10% than .284/.353/.516 at home. But it does mean that it's possible Granderson was hurt more by his home field than a general park factor adjustment would capture and may see a better than expected boost if he moves to a park that's better suited to his game (like a certain disgraceful bandbox for example).

Given his age, he shouldn't decline all that much over the next few years. If we assume he'll lose around a run of value defensively each season, his total run value would work out to something like 108 BRAR and 15 defensive runs saved. That works out to around 12 wins over the next four years. On the free agent market, four years and 12 wins would probably cost you around $50M, which is a touch more than $24M. In a lot of ways, this trade parallels the Nick Swisher acquisition, although the Yankees gave up a lot more in this trade. They got a player who's under 30, coming off a down year, signed to a very reasonable contract, with a lot of reasons to think that the player can bounce back.

Now, obviously there's a second part to the equation here, which is who the Yankees traded to get Granderson. I'll put up a separate post about Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke in the next day or two.

--Posted at 5:09 pm by SG / 107 Comments | - (83)

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Foxsports: Rosenthal - Source: Yanks, Pettitte close on 1-year, $12M deal

The Yankees are closing in on a one-year contract for nearly $12 million with free-agent left-hander Andy Pettitte, according to a major-league source.

The deal, first reported by SI.com, would ensure that the Yankees started next season with the same three starters that helped them win the World Series — CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Pettitte.

I support bringing Pettitte back.

Update: It’s official.  One year, $11.75M.

--Posted at 11:42 am by SG / 159 Comments | - (72)

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Tuesday, December 8, 2009

MLB Trade Rumors: Agreement Reached In Yanks, Tigers, D’Backs Blockbuster

12:48pm: Heyman tweets that an agreement has been reached, with only medicals pending.  We’ll do a fresh post once this trade is official.  To reiterate: the Yankees get Curtis Granderson, the D’Backs get Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, and the Tigers get Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth, Austin Jackson, and Phil Coke.

I guess this is our new winter meeting thread.  If/when the trade becomes official I’ll take a detailed look at it, including the requested three year forecasts for Granderson and Austin Jackson.  My gut thinks this is a good trade for the Yankees though.

--Posted at 2:18 pm by SG / 285 Comments | - (92)

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NY Times (Kepner): Looking to Add Arms, Yankees First Deal One

“Pitching, pitching, pitching, and then left field,” General Manager Brian Cashman said. “Those are the obvious areas we need to focus on.”

The Yankees have an advantage on other teams, of course, because they have the highest payroll. They hope to bring it below $200 million for next season, but that still gives them enough space to have choices.

Their first move was to subtract a pitcher, trading reliever Brian Bruney to the Washington Nationals on Monday for a player to be named. The Nationals pick first in the Rule 5 Draft on Thursday, and they will select a player for the Yankees.

The last player the Yankees kept from the Rule 5 Draft was Josh Phelps in 2007, but other teams have uncovered stars. Players like Johan Santana (1999) and Josh Hamilton (2006) have been acquired in that draft.

Bye bye Bruney.

Adopting kronicfatigue‘s suggestion, I"m going to keep this thread at the top of the site and consider it a general thread for any winter meeting discussions.

--Posted at 9:52 am by SG / 160 Comments | - (54)

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Monday, December 7, 2009

Book Excerpt: Evaluating Baseball’s Managers - Joe McCarthy

As I’ve mentioned in an earlier entry, Chris Jaffe has written a book evaluating baseball managers that is more comprehensive than anything I’ve seen, titled coincidentally enough, Evaluating Baseball Managers.  He’s allowing me to publish another excerpt from that book following up on the one he published at the Hardball Times about Billy Martin.  This excerpt is about Joe McCarthy, or as Chris calls him, “The Greatest Manager of All Time”.  McCarthy managed the Yankees to seven World Series wins.

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Joe McCarthy 

W/L Record: 2,125-1,333 (.615)
Managed:
Full Seasons: Chicago (NL) 1926-29; New York (AL) 1931-45; Boston (AL) 1948-49
Majority in: Chicago (NL) 1930
Minority of: New York (AL) 1946; Boston (AL) 1950
Birnbaum Database: +1451 runs
Individual Hitters: +550 runs
Individual Pitchers: +649 runs
Pythagenpat Difference: -107 runs
Team Offense: +190 runs
Team Defense: +169 runs
Team Characteristics: McCarthy’s teams score well at practically everything.  His defenses were good, pitchers were terrific, and offenses were the cream of the crop.  If you could quantify batboy performance, McCarthy probably would rate the best with them as well.  Most notably, his teams possessed great offenses.  Bill James noted that McCarthy managed nine of the fourteen highest scoring teams of the twentieth century.  Admittedly six were Yankees squads, but McCarthy also managed three of the five highest scoring non-Yankee teams.  Neat trick. 
LPA: 3.89
LPA+: 86

Joe McCarthy won seven pennants in eight years, and never had a losing season in a quarter-century on the job.  McCarthy’s success allowed him to publish his Ten Commandments for Baseball: 

1. Nobody ever became a ballplayer by walking after a ball.
2. You will never become a .300 hitter unless you take the bat off your shoulder. 
3. An outfielder who throws in back of the runner is locking the barn after the horse is stolen.
4. Keep your head up and you may not have to keep it down. 
5. When you start to slide, SLIDE.  He who changes his mind may have to change a good leg for a bad one. 
6. Do not alibi on bad hops.  Anyone can field the good ones. 
7. Always run them out.  You can never tell. 
8. Do not quit. 
9. Try not to find too much fault with the umpire.  You cannot expect everyone to be as perfect as you are. 
10. A pitcher who hasn’t control hasn’t anything.

Notably, only the tenth item dealt with pitchers.  Several items are common sense bits that apply to all players, but this list primarily focuses on position players.  That was appropriate because everyday players made McCarthy’s teams peerless. 

Despite his fantastic career record, he managed virtually no great pitchers.  When McCarthy arrived in Chicago, the Cubs had Pete Alexander, but McCarthy had him traded away after seven starts.  McCarthy also had Lefty Gomez and Red Ruffing with the Yankees, but both have their critics who think neither belongs in Cooperstown.  Aside from that, McCarthy’s only immortal hurlers were Burleigh Grimes and Herb Pennock.  Not only were both questionable Hall of Fame selections, but each was on the cusp of retirement when playing for McCarthy.  He achieved a .615 winning percentage without top tier pitching. 

Conversely, one can fill out a lineup of nothing but Hall of Famers from his position players and have enough leftovers for an extra team or two:

Joe McCarthy’s First Team
C Gabby Hartnett
1B Lou Gehrig
2B Rogers Hornsby
SS Phil Rizzuto
3B Joe Sewell
RF Babe Ruth
CF Joe DiMaggio
LF Ted Williams

McCarthy’s best pitchers—Gomez, Ruffing, Charlie Root, Mel Parnell, and Johnny Allen—would make an excellent staff, but are clearly outclassed by the above position players.  In fact, they are nowhere near as good as the offensive B-team:

Joe McCarthy’s Second Team
C Bill Dickey
1B Charlie Grimm
2B Joe Gordon
SS Frankie Crosetti
3B Red Rolfe
RF Kiki Cuyler
CF Hack Wilson
LF Charlie Keller

That still does not exhaust the offensive stars who batted for McCarthy.  Beyond them are Tony Lazzeri, Bobby Doerr, Woody English, Vern Stephens, Johnny Pesky, Earle Combs, Tommy Heinrich, Ben Chapman, and Riggs Stephenson.  Not surprisingly, the Tendencies Database believes McCarthy had tremendous offenses. Here are its results for park-adjusted runs per game:

Most Runs, Park-Adjusted
Joe McCarthy 0.404
Hughie Jennings 0.429
Davey Johnson 0.460
John McGraw 0.478
Sparky Anderson 0.591

McCarthy’s squads almost always finished first or second in the league in scoring.

While McCarthy possessed great offenses, his squads excelled in some areas more than others.  They bunted and stole infrequently.  Also, despite his bevy of Hall of Famers, the Tendencies Database ranks McCarthy “only” twelfth at batting average.  Instead, McCarthy focused on the “take’n'rake” approach in which his hitters practiced plate discipline while looking for a pitch to drill.  Thus despite his lackluster (by his standards) performance in batting average, his squads still did a great job getting on base, as the Tendencies Database reveals: 

Best OBP
Joe McCarthy 0.414
Hughie Jennings 0.476
John McGraw 0.526
Burt Shotton 0.578
Billy Southworth 0.593

His teams came first or second in OBP nearly a dozen and a half times. 

With fantastic position players, McCarthy merely needed durable pitchers who would not give the game away.  Red Ruffing exemplified a McCarthy pitcher.  Ruffing had a career like none other.  He initially played for a perennial sad sack Red Sox franchise, yet still lost games at a greater frequency than his teammates.  Upon arriving with the continually contending Yankees, he suddenly won at a better clip than the squad.  At first glance, it does not make sense.  The key to unlocking Ruffing’s secret lies in the only pitching aspect of McCarthy’s Ten Commandments: control.  In his Red Sox life, he walked 3.68 batters per nine innings, but as a Yankee he walked only 3.03. 

McCarthy did not merely instruct Ruffing and his other pitchers to throw strikes, he made his hurlers more comfortable throwing the ball over the plate by emphasizing defense.  Five times his bunch led the league in fielding percentage.  From 1934-45, the Yankees finished first the league in Defensive Efficiency Ratio every year except 1940, when they came in second.  Six times his squads topped the AL in Fielding Win Shares, and they came in second place a half-dozen more times.  McCarthy normally had defense-first players in the middle infield, like Rizzuto and Crosetti.  Ruffing trusted the solid gloves behind him, allowing him to attack the batters, and throw balls over the plate.  With fewer hits and walks allowed, Ruffing suddenly became a better pitcher.  He relied on his supreme attribute—durability.  That was all McCarthy needed. 

A similar philosophy existed in McCarthy’s approach to hitting and pitching.  His hitters prioritized walks and home runs, and relying on fielders meant pitchers had to keep walks and homers in check.  McCarthy’s teams clubbed more home runs than they surrendered in each of the 22 seasons he managed.  The odds on that happening by random happenstance are one in 4,194,304.  His record with walks was nearly as impressive.  His squads drew more free passes than they surrendered every year except 1944 (when they allowed only nine more than they earned) and with a few of his Chicago squads.  Overall, his squads belted 2,891 long balls while allowing 1,711, a difference of 1,180.  As the list below shows, McCarthy gained more benefit from the home run than any other manger:

Best Home Run Differentials
Joe McCarthy +1,180 home runs
Bobby Cox +828 home runs
Miller Huggins +533 home runs
Tommy Lasorda +506 home runs
Earl Weaver +465 home runs

This includes only years in the Tendencies Database, so partial seasons make the results slightly inaccurate, but McCarthy’s dominance is overwhelming.  When he retired, only Huggins and John McGraw (+232) exceeded the 200 mark.  McCarthy also possessed the second best walk differential of all-time. 
Years ago, ESPN writer Rob Neyer invented a stat called the “Beane Count” to look at how teams performed with walks and homers at both ends of the game.  (Neyer named it after Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane, whose teams excelled at all these aspects in the early 21st century).  It is a simple stat—take how teams rank in home runs and walks received and given, and find the sum of how they rank in these categories, (which the Tendencies Database examines on a per inning and plate appearance basis).  Here are baseball’s most Beane Count-friendly managers: 

Best at Beane Count
Joe McCarthy 2.505
Earl Weaver 2.641
Al Lopez 2.937
Jimy Williams 3.004
Tommy Lasorda 3.021

Only one manager is close to McCarthy. 

A sound baseball philosophy was not enough to explain McCarthy’s exceptional record; he was also exemplary at implementing his notions.  McCarthy had a reputation as someone who could see problems coming two years in advance and adjust accordingly.  There were some occasions he did not read the tea leaves properly—most notably his decision to stick with aging shortstop Frankie Crosetti in 1940, a move that likely cost New York the pennant, but that was the exception, not the rule. 

McCarthy not only knew when to break in kids, but also how to do it.  When Phil Rizzuto first came up, McCarthy sat him on the bench next to him for several weeks early in the season.  McCarthy quizzed the kid, making sure Rizzuto stayed alert toes at all times.  He pointed out various intricacies to the young shortstop, making sure Rizzuto absorbed as much knowledge as possible.  When McCarthy put him in the lineup to stay, Rizzuto was considerably surer of himself than he otherwise would have been.  Rizzuto later concluded that this was McCarthy’s standard practice for breaking in young players.  Rob Neyer investigated Rizzuto’s claims in his book Baseball Legends, and determined that although several other rookies (Crosetti, Joe Gordon, and Dixie Walker) had prolonged gaps as starters early in their rookie season, it did not happen often enough to qualify as McCarthy’s modus operandi. 

The question arises, if McCarthy used this system repeatedly (as he apparently did), why would not he do it more often?  Think it through: to have a player sit next to McCarthy on the bench for that much time entailed a considerable investment in the prospect.  McCarthy would not spend that much time with a player unless he expected the foundling to spend many years in the starting lineup.  Those players do not come along every year.  Also, while the kid has to have enough potential to be a fixture, the prospect cannot be so exceptionally talented that he has to be played right away.  McCarthy would not keep Joe DiMaggio on the bench.  Furthermore, as Yankee manager, McCarthy possessed one of the most solid lineups in baseball, and thus fewer openings than others.  Finally, it is worth noting most of the guys McCarthy established in this manner were infielders.  By virtue of the geography of the baseball diamond, such players have to be a bit more aware of the game’s finer points.  When McCarthy had the chance to break kids in by this method, he did so. 

McCarthy’s method of handling rookies indicates an overriding attitude he prioritized—professionalism.  He preferred, though not necessarily demanded, a level of proper conduct among his players.  Early in his tenure with the Yankees he destroyed a clubhouse card table to make his point on how they should act.  He also instituted a dress code and ordered his men to be clean-shaven.  When a player misbehaved in New York, McCarthy told him to act like a Yankee.  He did not just set down rules, but also enforced them.  That was why shortly after becoming the Cubs’ manager McCarthy immediately got rid of Pete Alexander, a hard drinker who followed the beat of his own drummer. 

That being said, McCarthy was not inflexible.  His Chicago center fielder, Hack Wilson, was possibly an even bigger drinker than Alexander.  However, McCarthy established a prodigal son relationship with Wilson.  Rather than destabilize the team, Wilson’s problems strangely fit into the system as he always accepted McCarthy’s authority.  After all, McCarthy gave him a starting job in center field after John McGraw banished him to the American Association.  With the Cubs, Wilson became the exception that made the rule.  Similarly, when he came to the Yankees, McCarthy also accepted Ruth’s bravado.  After all, there was only one Ruth. 

Still, it is telling that McCarthy’s career really took off once his squad had been cleared of any Wilsons or Ruths.  Before 1936, he finished in second five times in previous six seasons.  Then, with a lineup full of business-like professionals such as DiMaggio, Crosetti, Bill Dickey, and Tommy Heinrich, McCarthy won six championships and seven pennants in eight years.  Their average margin of victory in those pennant-wining seasons was fourteen games. Their closest scare was 1942, when they won by nine games. 

McCarthy’s emphasis on professionalism paid dividends.  By stressing proper conduct, and gathering a core of players who embodied the character traits he extolled, he created an espirit de corps.  Players came to live up to McCarthy’s Ten Commandments not because their manager told them to, but because they wanted to, and they saw those around them doing so.  Yogi Berra once reminisced that when he first joined the Yankees, he failed to run out a routine grounder because he knew the throw would beat him.  Upon returning to the dugout, the great DiMaggio came up to him, and asked the rookie if something was wrong with his legs.  Another vet chided him for not running it out.  Berra was a scared kid to whom the star center fielder had barely spoken.  Berra finally had the attention of the Yankee Clipper, only to be upbraided.  More importantly, Berra knew DiMaggio was right.  He violated McCarthy’s Seventh Commandment: always run them out.  The story happened after McCarthy had left the franchise, but it showed the mindset he instilled. 

That professional demeanor helped McCarthy’s Yankee squads greatly in the postseason.  In his seven world titles, New York went 28-5 in the Fall Classic.  Even including the 1942 contest against the Cards—the only time his Yankees lost to the NL—they still went 29-9.  While this would be an incredible achievement under normal circumstances, against the best clubs in baseball it was almost impossibly good. 

Stonewall Jackson once remarked that an army conditioned to victory will become invincible.  They will endure greater burdens while maintaining faith and order under the direst conditions.  They can fight more resiliently than their opponent because they believe their sacrifices will not be in vain.  That was the case for McCarthy’s Bronx Bombers.  Their ultimate postseason moment came in Game 4 of the 1941 World Series against the Brooklyn Dodgers.  The Yankees, who led the series two games to one, trailed 4-3 in the top of the ninth in this contest.  With two outs, two strikes, and no one on base, batter Tommy Heinrich swung and missed for an apparent game ending strikeout, but the ball squirted away from catcher Mickey Owen.  Heinrich made it to first on a wild pitch.  Given an inch, the Yankees took a mile.  They ripped off a furious rally and won, cutting the hearts out of Brooklyn.  They had followed with McCarthy’s Fourth Commandment—play with your head up.  When the right players with the right attitude are under the right manager, the results can be miraculous. 

--Posted at 10:11 am by SG / 141 Comments | - (107)

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Saturday, December 5, 2009

MLB.com: Yanks’ prospects more than trade chips

While the Yankees set up camp in Tampa, Fla., to outline a spending budget for the Winter Meetings free-agent blitz, general manager Brian Cashman could be secure in knowing that the defending World Series champions have several valuable inventory pieces within their own farm system.

That remains by design. Part of Cashman’s overhaul of the “splintered” organization from the middle part of the decade, as he called it, was to renew the emphasis on making wise selections in the Draft and keeping that talent flowing throughout the pipeline.

Update (SG): In other news, Anthony McCarron has this in the Daily News.

New York Yankees insider: pitchers Roy Halladay and John Lackey are on team’s radar

After finishing their budget meetings in Tampa Friday, the Yankees are ready to dive into both the trade and free-agent markets and their priority is pitching, according to one insider.

With that in mind, the Yankees will “see what’s there” in the Roy Halladay trade sweepstakes, the person said, and likely will be engaged in talks on the Toronto ace.

The Yanks also hope to resolve Andy Pettitte’s status as soon as possible and they will look at John Lackey, the top free agent starter, the person said. All of the Yankees’ own primary free agents - Pettitte, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui - are “in the game,” as well, the person added.

Less likely are bids for slugging outfielders Matt Holliday or Jason Bay, unless the Yankees are unable to retain Damon to fill left field.

I’m pretty much at the point where I wouldn’t trade what it would take to get Halladay.  Unless Toronto is willing to accept a package that has none of Montero, Joba or Hughes I don’t even bid for him.  Lackey’s not as good as Halladay, but he’ll only cost you cash and a draft pick.  While losing a draft pick stinks, the Yankees can probably use whatever money they had budgeted for said draft pick to sign an extra international free agent so it’s not really that big of a deal.  More Latin American catchers!

--Posted at 1:52 am by Jonathan / 174 Comments | - (89)

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Thursday, December 3, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Mariano F’ing Rivera

Who better to close out the 2009 season reviews with than the guy who’s closed so many Yankee victories over the last 12 seasons?

Projection systems aren't designed to handle someone like Mariano Rivera, who consistently exceeds his projections. Here's how Mo projected heading into 2009.

mariano rivera	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	66	59	23	21	4	12	63	2.86	2.64	12	20	161.9%	89.8%
2009 marcel projection	66	58	24	23	5	15	58	3.09	3.08	10	19	175.1%	104.7%
2009 pecota projection	66	57	20	18	4	12	64	2.42	2.54	15	24	137.3%	86.3%
2009 tht projection	66	55	20	19	4	12	63	2.52	2.57	15	23	142.8%	87.2%
2009 zips projection	66	55	18	17	3	9	64	2.28	2.24	16	25	129.4%	76.3%
2009 cairo projection	66	53	19	18	4	11	61	2.38	2.61	16	24	134.8%	88.7%
2009 average projection	66	56	21	19	4	12	62	2.59	2.61	14	22	146.9%	88.8%
2009 actual	66	48	14	13	7	12	72	1.76	2.94	20	28

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

Rivera's projections were all pretty close to each other, with Marcel the major outlier. Rivera managed to better his projections in his K rate and his hit rate as well as his ERA, although he gave up more home runs than projected. It's probably worth noting that five of those seven HRs allowed came in his first 17 appearances. In those first 17 appearances, Rivera had an ERA of 3.06, and opponents hit .264/.274/.472 against him. Over his next six appearances he continued to struggle somewhat, with a 4.76 ERA and a .292/.320/.417 opponent's line. Around that time, Joe Girardi made comments that Rivera had not yet fully recovered his arm strength after last off-season's shoulder surgery, but let's see what Pitch F/X says.

Type (through June 6)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %	break_y	break_angle	break_length
Cut fastball	319	94.0	87.9	91.2	28.8%	7.5%	24.5%	21.6%	11.6%	4.4%	0.0%	23.8	-11.8	4.9
Four-seam fastball	56	93.4	89.4	91.3	46.4%	5.4%	12.5%	16.1%	7.1%	8.9%	0.0%	23.8	4.9	5.8
Total	375	94.0	87.9	91.3	31.5%	7.2%	22.7%	20.8%	10.9%	5.1%	0.0%

Type (June 7 through end of season)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %	break_y	break_angle	break_length
Cut fastball	731	94.2	86.4	91.2	31.3%	8.5%	21.6%	20.5%	13.8%	2.7%	0.1%	23.8	-14.3	5.1
Four-seam fastball	178	94.5	86.8	91.1	41.6%	6.7%	27.0%	12.4%	7.9%	3.9%	0.0%	23.9	-2.0	5.6
Total	909	94.5	86.4	91.1	33.3%	8.1%	22.7%	18.9%	12.7%	3.0%	0.1%

#: number of times pitch was thrown as recorded in Pitch F/X
max: highest recorded starting velocity
min: lowest recorded starting velocity
avg: average recorded starting velocity
ball %: percentage of time pitch was taken for a ball
stkS%: percentage of time pitch was swung on and missed
foul%: percentage of time pitch was fouled off
stkC%: percentage of time pitch was taken for a called strike
In play, out(s)%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play for an out(s)
In play, no out%: percentage of time pitch was hit into play and not converted into an out
HBP%: percentage of time batter was hit by pitch
break_y: the y-distance from home plate where the maximum deviation occurs(definition taken from this site)
break_angle: the direction of the deviation, with the convention that a pitch that breaks away from or toward a RHH has a negative or positive angle, respectively;
break_length: the largest deviation, in inches, of the actual from the straight-line trajectory.

Not a whole lot of difference in terms of velocity here, although it looks like Mo started getting better break on the cutter.

From June 7 through the end of the season, Rivera had a 0.84 ERA, holding opposing batters to a line of .149/.208/.216.

Mo showed that even if he's lost a tick or two off the cutter, he can continue to be one of the best closers in the game. After another stellar postseason where Rivera pitched 16 innings and allowed just one earned run, he said he wants to pitch for five more years, which would take him through age 44. Dennis Eckersely and Doug Jones were both able to pitch through age 43, and neither was as good as Rivera was at age 39, so I wouldn't bet against him.

--Posted at 7:31 am by SG / 137 Comments | - (87)

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Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Foxsports.com: New York Yankees after Brandon Lyon

The Yankees have expressed interest in free-agent reliever Brandon Lyon, according to major-league sources. The Yankees likely will express interest in all of the top available late-inning relievers - lefty Mike Gonzalez, righties Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano and Jose Valverde - if they haven’t already.

--Posted at 1:31 pm by Jonathan / 58 Comments | - (51)

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2009 Yankees Season in Review: Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez

It doesn’t seem like doing a season in review and skipping the three and four hitters is a good idea.

For much of the offseason, the non-courtship of Mark Teixeira by the Yankees was somewhat frustrating. The Yankees had an obvious hole at first base, and had a chance to get arguably the second best overall first baseman in baseball to fill it, and they would not have to surrender any talent from the organization to do it. With Teixeira still being under 30, he'd also help the team get younger, as well as better defensively.

As Christmas 2008 approached, it seemed like Teixeira to the Red Sox was just a case of dotting the i's and crossing the t's. This would have made Boston the clear favorites in a tight AL East. However, over a span of a few hours, reports started coming in that the Yankees and Teixeira were actually talking, with Jon Heyman eventually being the first to confirm that the Yankees and Teixeira had agreed to a deal. Being Scott Boras's sock puppet has its advantages.

As we know, Teixeira was a key part of the team's regular season success, even if he SCUFFLED a bit in the postseason. Here's how Teix performed compared to his projections.

mark teixeira	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std
2009 chone projection	707	613	175	36	1	35	2	0	89	119	.286	.381	.521	108	.374	.335	.354	.393	.413
2009 marcel projection	707	604	177	41	1	32	2	0	90	119	.292	.393	.522	110	.381	.341	.361	.400	.420
2009 pecota projection	707	607	174	38	1	31	2	1	87	113	.287	.379	.506	104	.367	.328	.348	.387	.406
2009 tht projection	707	612	175	40	0	33	1	1	88	118	.287	.383	.513	106	.373	.333	.353	.392	.412
2009 zips projection	707	607	177	41	1	31	2	0	92	115	.292	.392	.517	109	.379	.339	.359	.398	.418
2009 cairo projection	707	605	176	40	1	34	2	0	90	117	.291	.387	.528	110	.378	.339	.358	.397	.417
2009 average projection	707	608	176	39	1	33	2	0	89	117	.289	.386	.518	108	.375	.336	.356	.395	.414
2009 actuals	707	609	178	43	3	39	2	0	81	114	.292	.383	.565	116	.384	.345	.365	.404	.424

BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)

He hit more homers than projected and walked a bit less, but aside from that he did what he was projected to do. Teix took advantage of DNYS like most Yankees, as he hit 24 of his 39 HRs at home and hit .312/.387/.627, compared to .272/.380/.502 on the road. Part of that is the fact that the majority of players hit better at home regardless, so don't think this means he's a park illusion.

He wasn't the MVP in the AL (then again, neither was Joe Mauer). He probably wasn't even the most valuable Yankee, as Derek Jeter and CC Sabathia have cases for being more valuable. Still, he was a very good player on the best team in baseball.

Across the diamond, Alex Rodriguez had about as bad of an offseason as you could imagine for a baseball player. First came the reports and admission of his use of PEDs. Now branded with the scarlet S in a sport that's been as pure as Ivory soap otherwise, Rodriguez had to hold a press conference for damage control, just like Jason Giambi and Andy Pettitte did. Other press conferences of note, Brian Roberts, Troy Glaus and Jose Guillen. Oh wait, only the Yankees are required to give steroid press conferences...

As if that wasn't bad enough, there then came the news that Rodriguez's entire season was in jeopardy due to a torn labrum in his hip. I think it was at this point that Rodriguez started to get treated a little differently by the media and fans. The prospect of losing him for the entire season may have finally caused the clowns who said the Yankees would be better off without him to realize, no, they would be worse. Much worse. Like 6-7 wins worse.

The news turned out to not be as dire as initially reported, as Rodriguez was able to have a less extensive surgery that allowed him to return in May. When that happened, the Yankees effectively took off after SCUFFLING for the first 29 games of the season (12-17).

alex rodriguez	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std
2009 chone projection	535	457	134	23	1	33	13	3	69	105	.294	.397	.564	119	.394	.349	.372	.417	.440
2009 marcel projection	535	456	132	24	1	30	14	3	64	104	.289	.379	.545	113	.376	.331	.354	.399	.421
2009 pecota projection	535	460	130	25	1	26	16	4	62	107	.282	.373	.508	106	.365	.320	.342	.387	.410
2009 tht projection	535	460	134	25	0	32	14	4	64	103	.292	.392	.552	117	.388	.343	.366	.411	.434
2009 zips projection	535	457	134	25	0	31	14	3	65	103	.292	.395	.549	117	.389	.344	.367	.412	.435
2009 cairo projection	535	453	134	24	0	30	14	3	67	104	.296	.398	.553	118	.391	.345	.368	.414	.437
2009 average projection	535	457	133	24	1	30	14	3	65	104	.291	.389	.545	115	.384	.339	.361	.407	.429
2009 actuals	535	444	127	17	1	30	14	2	80	97	.286	.402	.532	115	.388	.343	.366	.411	.434

Although he didn't play as often as projected, he ended up just about as valuable as projected on a rate basis, with a few more walks and few less doubles. He also K'd a bit less than projected, which may or may not mean anything. Most of the projections were pretty close.

Of course, what happened in the regular season was nice, but the story of Rodriguez's 2009 will be his tremendous effort in the postseason. Rodriguez hit .365./.500/.808 in 68 postseason PAs, with 6 HRs and 18 RBI. His game-tying bottom of the ninth two-run HR off Joe Nathan in ALDS Game 2 may have been the biggest hit of his Yankee career at the time. Then, he hit ANOTHER bottom of the ninth game-tying HR off Brian Fuentes in ALCS Game 2. Although he didn't have a great World Series, his two-run instant replay HR with the Yankees trailing 3-0 helped the Yanks to rally and take Game Three.

So now, he can't be called A-Fraud or A-Freud. Well, he could, but whoever does it is going to sound dumb. I guess A-Roid is still on the table. The brilliance of that is they change his nickname to reference the fact that he used steroids. Subtle, yet ingenious.

So yeah, the Yankee corner IF was great in 2009.

--Posted at 9:50 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (73)

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Tuesday, December 1, 2009

MLB.com: Henrich, oldest living Yankee, passes away

NEW YORK—The oldest living Yankee, outfielder Tommy Henrich, died early Tuesday morning in Dayton, Ohio. He was 96.

Henrich, a five-time All-Star and seven-time World Series champion, hit .282 with 183 home runs over an 11-year career with the Yankees. If not for the parts of four years he spent serving for the U.S. Coast Guard in World War II, Henrich, known as “Old Reliable,” may have won even more than his seven titles.

RIP Old Reliable.

--Posted at 5:26 pm by SG / 27 Comments | - (52)

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2009 Yankees Season in Review: Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the Defense

As requested, here’s a look at how Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena and the overall team defense did compared to their projections.

After a 2008 season that saw him get to AA, Cervelli was still probably off the radar for 2009 despite a brief cameo at the end of 2008. However, injuries forced him into the picture, and he ended up getting 101 PAs. Here are his projections entering 2009, pro-rated to those 101 PAs.

francisco cervelli	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	101	92	20	4	1	1	1	0	8	25	.223	.296	.304	53	.268	.174	.221	.315	.362	95.3%
2009 marcel projection	101	90	25	5	1	3	2	1	9	18	.272	.337	.422	82	.321	.221	.271	.370	.420	114.2%
2009 pecota projection	101	90	21	5	0	1	1	0	8	24	.229	.300	.335	60	.277	.182	.229	.324	.372	98.5%
2009 tht projection	101	91	21	5	0	1	1	0	8	18	.236	.315	.321	59	.284	.188	.236	.332	.380	101.1%
2009 zips projection	101	90	21	4	0	1	1	1	7	18	.236	.317	.304	56	.281	.186	.234	.329	.377	100.2%
2009 cairo projection	101	91	22	5	0	1	0	0	7	21	.240	.314	.326	61	.284	.188	.236	.332	.380	101.2%
2009 average projection	101	90	22	5	0	1	1	0	8	21	.239	.313	.335	62	.286	.190	.238	.334	.382	101.8%
2009 actuals	101	94	28	4	0	1	0	3	2	11	.298	.309	.372	55	.281	.185	.233	.329	.376

Cervelli had shown pretty good plate discipline in the minors, but it deserted him in the majors. Despite that, he was able to come fairly close to his projected OBP because he hit six more singles. That also explains why he was able to exceed his SLG by a fair amount.

The .298 average is nice, but it was sort of empty, and it's doubtful he'll be able to replicate the same type of performance in 2010 if he has to rely on hitting .298 to do it. The good news is he should walk a little more and he's still going to be just 24, so he has room for growth in his offensive game. While it's probably unlikely he'll be more than a backup, he should be a decent one, especially if the good defense he showed in 2009 carries forward.

Sort of like Cervelli, Ramiro Pena hadn't gotten past AA prior to 2009, and he hadn't really impressed there either, slugging a monstrous .297 in 2008 for Trenton. Pena's calling card isn't his bat though, it's his glove. In a surprise, he made the Yankees on opening day as a backup IF, since Alex Rodriguez was out rehabbing his hip and the only other backup IF on the roster was Angel Berroa.

Because of Pena's unimpressive minor league resume, his projections were unimpressive.

ramiro pena	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	121	113	26	4	1	0	2	1	8	25	.233	.284	.297	48	.258	.173	.215	.300	.342	86.7%
2009 marcel projection	121	110	25	5	0	2	1	0	8	20	.224	.272	.320	50	.255	.170	.212	.297	.339	85.7%
2009 pecota projection	121	108	24	4	0	1	1	0	10	16	.223	.285	.286	47	.255	.171	.213	.297	.339	85.8%
2009 tht projection	121	113	25	4	1	1	1	1	7	22	.224	.276	.291	45	.252	.168	.210	.294	.336	84.8%
2009 zips projection	121	114	26	3	0	0	4	2	6	16	.224	.269	.263	39	.240	.158	.199	.282	.323	80.9%
2009 cairo projection	121	112	26	4	1	1	1	1	7	21	.232	.282	.290	46	.255	.171	.213	.297	.340	85.9%
2009 average projection	121	112	25	4	1	1	2	1	8	20	.227	.278	.291	46	.252	.168	.210	.295	.337	85.0%
2009 actuals	121	115	33	6	1	1	4	1	5	20	.287	.317	.383	71	.297	.208	.253	.342	.386

Like Cervelli, Pena hit more and walked less than expected. However, he did show a little more pop than projected, with two extra doubles. Obviously when we're dealing with sample sizes like this we shouldn't try to infer too much about what it means going forward, but Pena's final line in 2009 was better than replacement level, and would have made him about a win better than replacement level on offense if he had done it over 650 PAs.

So, how about the Yankee defense?

Since I started blogging in 2004, there's been one recurring theme with the Yankees. Their defense has generally been bad to awful. While you can hit and pitch well enough to overcome that, it can be frustrating to watch players not making plays other players can make.

When the Yankees let Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi go and replaced them with Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher, that alone looked like a pretty decent defensive upgrade. Here's how the defense projected heading into 2009 compared to what they actually ended up doing.

Player	Pos	pZR	pUZR	pRAA	zRSAA	uRSAA	aRSAA	diff
Jorge Posada	C			-5			-10	-5
Jose Molina	C			2	-2	-2	-2	-4
Francisco Cervelli	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	2
Kevin Cash	C	0	0	0	-1	-1	-1	-1
Mark Teixeira	1B	5	2	3	8	-4	2	-1
Juan Miranda	1B	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Robinson Cano	2B	2	-2	0	-2	-5	-3	-4
Alex Rodriguez	3B	-2	-1	-2	-6	-9	-7	-6
Cody Ransom	3B	0	0	0	-4	-4	-4	-4
Angel Berroa	3B	0	0	0	0	-3	-1	-1
Melky Cabrera	CF	2	-2	0	0	-2	-1	-1
Brett Gardner	CF	1	2	1	0	7	4	2
Johnny Damon	LF	-1	4	2	0	-9	-5	-6
Freddy Guzman	LF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nick Swisher	RF	1	1	1	-4	-1	-3	-4
Eric Hinske	RF	0	0	0	1	1	1	1
Xavier Nady	RF	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	0
Shelley Duncan	RF	0	0	0	0	-1	0	0
Derek Jeter	SS	-5	-5	-5	-2	7	2	7
Ramiro Pena	SS	0	0	0	-2	1	0	0
Total				-2			-27	-25

pZR: Projected runs saved above average according to zone rating, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pUZR: Projected runs saved above average according to UZR, pro-rated to 2009 playing time.
pRAA: Average of pZR and pUZR
zRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to zone rating
uRSAA: Actual runs saved above average according to UZR
aRSAA: Average of zRSAA and uRSAA
diff: aRSAA - pRAA (negative means worse than projected)

The Yankee defense actually didn't play as well as projected, with the primary culprits being Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa's contributions also didn't really help. On the plus side, Derek Jeter was seven runs better than projected and Brett Gardner was two runs better.

Last year's team was about 40 runs below average, so at the very least they were better than that.

Interestingly, I completely forgot to do a season review for Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, so I'll post that next, then Mo's and then that should wrap up the backwards-looking stuff for now.

--Posted at 8:54 am by SG / 101 Comments | - (77)

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Monday, November 30, 2009

SI.com: Derek Jeter named 2009 Sportsman of the Year

NEW YORK (SI.com)—In what has already been a banner year for Derek Jeter, the New York Yankees shortstop can add another honor: Sports Illustrated’s Sportsman of the Year award. Jeter was chosen as the magazine’s 56th honoree (the Dec. 7 issue will hit newsstands on Wednesday) and becomes the first Yankee to be named SI’s Sportsman.

Yay for the Captain.  And make sure to check him out in the new feature film, “The Other Guys” set to hit the big screen in August of 2010!

--Posted at 11:40 am by Jonathan / 44 Comments | - (67)

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2009 Yankees Season in Review: Phil Coke, David Robertson, Alfredo Aceves

The Yankee bullpen started out shakily in 2009, with pitchers like Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez unable to follow up on their good 2008 performances.  Here are some of the key stats for the Yankee bullpen through May 9.

ERA: 6.22
FIP: 6.00
CERA: 5.57
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .266/.355/.506
HR/9: 2.11
BB/9: 4.48
K/9: 8.79

From May 10 on, here’s how the pen performed.

ERA: 3.37
FIP: 4.07
CERA: 3.34
AVG/OBP/SLG against: .222/.295/.365
HR/9: 1.06
BB/9: 3.24
K/9: 8.36

We’ve already covered Phil Hughes, so now I’ll look at Phil Coke, David Robertson and Alfredo Aceves.

phil coke	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	60	60	31	28	7	24	56	4.25	3.96	2	9	94.5%	83.7%
2009 marcel projection	60	56	28	26	6	21	47	3.94	3.89	4	11	87.5%	82.1%
2009 pecota projection	60	67	36	33	7	24	43	4.99	4.43	-3	4	111.0%	93.7%
2009 tht projection	60	68	39	36	9	29	37	5.44	5.33	-6	1	120.9%	112.6%
2009 zips projection	60	66	35	33	7	25	37	4.91	4.72	-3	5	109.1%	99.7%
2009 cairo projection	60	78	41	39	8	12	35	5.82	4.33	-9	-1	129.3%	91.4%
2009 average projection	60	66	35	33	7	23	43	4.89	4.44	-3	5	108.7%	93.9%
2009 actual	60	44	34	30	10	20	49	4.50	4.73	0	8

*Coke's projections were primarily as a starter, so I converted them to a relief equivalent.

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

Although his last appearance of the season was a disaster, Phil Coke was pretty good for most of 2009. As a lefty-reliever, his primary job is to get left-handed hitters out. That's something he's done 77.9% of the time in his major league career, which is the good news. The bad news is he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and allowed 10 HRs in 60 innings. The major difference with Coke pitching to righties versus lefties is his BB rate. RHB have hit .202 against him and have slugged .367 against him in his career, good for an ISO(SLG - AVG) of .165. LHB have hit .197 with a .349 SLG, good for an ISO of .152. Coke's walked 16 of the 127 RHB he's faced, compared to 6 of the 163 LHB he's faced.

I know a lot of Yankee fans don't trust him, but I see no reason he can't be an effective second lefty out of the pen.

david robertson	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	44	40	21	20	5	21	47	4.08	3.99	2	8	123.7%	129.4%
2009 marcel projection	44	43	23	22	4	17	38	4.50	3.95	0	5	136.6%	128.0%
2009 pecota projection	44	36	20	18	3	22	48	3.62	3.40	4	10	109.9%	110.1%
2009 tht projection	44	40	21	20	5	21	47	4.08	3.99	2	8	123.8%	129.4%
2009 zips projection	44	41	22	20	2	24	38	4.13	3.78	2	7	125.2%	122.4%
2009 cairo projection	44	39	18	17	3	12	39	3.47	3.04	5	10	105.2%	98.6%
2009 average projection	44	40	21	19	4	20	43	3.98	3.69	3	8	120.7%	119.7%
2009 actual	44	36	19	16	4	23	63	3.30	3.09	6	11

Robertson's projections were decent, but he ended up exceeding them. The biggest thing was the bump in his strikeout rate, as he K'd about 20 more batters over his average projection pro-rated to the 44 innings he pitched. Among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings in 2009, Robertson's K/9 rate of 12.98 was second in baseball, behind Jonathan Broxton.

I'm a little concerned about the late season issue that shut Robertson down for most of September, primarily because of how sporadically he was used in the postseason. That tells me that there was at least some lingering concern about his health. As long as that's not an ongoing problem, Robertson's emergence should allow the Yankees to at least try and use both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the rotation, with the hope that Robertson and Damaso Marte can serve as setup men and someone from the farm like Mark Melancon and/or Edwar Ramirez can take Robertson's 2009 role in 2010.

alfredo aceves	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	84	82	39	37	12	30	63	3.93	4.64	5	16	111.2%	126.1%
2009 marcel projection	84	71	31	29	9	32	68	3.06	4.12	13	24	86.6%	112.1%
2009 pecota projection	84	82	40	37	11	30	60	3.99	4.62	5	15	113.0%	125.7%
2009 tht projection	84	82	40	37	12	30	63	3.93	4.64	5	16	111.2%	126.1%
2009 zips projection	84	85	42	38	14	24	51	4.12	4.96	4	14	116.6%	134.8%
2009 cairo projection	84	75	38	36	11	13	52	3.83	4.15	6	17	108.5%	112.8%
2009 average projection	84	79	38	36	12	27	60	3.81	4.52	6	17	107.8%	122.9%
2009 actual	84	69	36	33	10	16	69	3.54	3.68	9	20

*Like Coke, Aceves's projections were primarily as a starter so I converted them to a relief equivalency.

Aceves emerged as one of the Yankees' most important relievers and a had a very good season even though he tailed off at the end. His ERA got as low as 2.02 on July 5. He then started a game against Minnesota on July 9 and scuffled the rest of the way (4.91 ERA). While it's a nice and convenient end point to look at that start and blame it for Aceves's year-end tailing off, a deeper look at the numbers removing that start shows this:

Split	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	HBP	ERA	FIP	CERA
Through Jul 5	40.0	30	10	9	8	34	5	2	2.03	3.88	2.81
July 18-Oct 3	40.7	35	22	21	8	33	4	3	4.65	3.67	3.21
Total	81	65	32	30	16	67	9	5	3.35	3.77	3.01

Aceves didn't really pitch all that much differently before or after the start. The primary difference was five extra singles, and 12 extra runs allowed. His final overall line is reasonably close to what it should have been given his peripherals, maybe a touch better.

While the Yankees have supposedly asked Aceves to prepare to come into spring training as a starter, it's more likely he'll be in the pen again in 2010 depending on how the rest of the rotation shakes out, and he should be an asset there again just like he was in 2009.

I'm going to do one more of these for Mariano Rivera, but I think I'm going to skip the bench and scrubs unless there's a demand for it. Then we can dive into Hot Stove GM mode.

--Posted at 7:59 am by SG / 38 Comments | - (82)

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Saturday, November 28, 2009

MLB.com: Halladay OK with deal to Yankees

NEW YORK—If the Yankees can pry Roy Halladay loose from the Blue Jays, the ace right-hander seems to be all for shifting allegiances in the American League East.

Halladay would reportedly waive his no-trade clause for a trade that would fit him for Yankees pinstripes, according to a story Friday in The Toronto Sun.

The story, written by Bob Elliott, quotes an unnamed Major League executive as saying, “I don’t know when he is going and I don’t know where he’s going. But I do know that Halladay has told the Jays he’ll approve a trade to the Yankees.”

Would Kei Igawa + cash get this done?

--Posted at 12:55 pm by SG / 54 Comments | - (66)

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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Some Things To Be Thankful For

--Posted at 1:40 pm by SG / 31 Comments | - (65)

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Wednesday, November 25, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain

While the big free agent signings and high-salaried players on the team are generally the main focus, the Yankees did get some help from players they developed through their farm system.  Two examples of that are Melky Cabrera and Joba Chamberlain.  Let’s see how Melky and Joba did compared to their projections.

After a nice first full season where Melky put up a pretty good .360 OBP at age 21, came two subsequent seasons where he declined. It's generally not a good thing to get worse at an age when you should be getting better, so 2009 was a big season for Melky. Brett Gardner won the spring training competition for CF, which meant Melky would start the year as Gardner's platoon partner as well as being as a backup for Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady.

Nady was lost for the season after six games, and Melky slowly started to wrest some of Gardner's playing time, eventually taking back the starting CF job.

Here are his projections entering 2009 and then his actual performance.

melky cabrera	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	540	491	137	24	4	10	12	5	46	67	.280	.345	.402	80	.322	.279	.301	.344	.365	101.6%
2009 marcel projection	540	482	131	21	3	9	11	3	44	68	.271	.330	.383	74	.307	.264	.286	.328	.349	96.7%
2009 pecota projection	540	487	130	21	3	9	11	5	41	68	.267	.324	.376	71	.302	.259	.280	.323	.344	95.0%
2009 tht projection	540	495	134	22	3	8	11	3	41	69	.270	.331	.376	73	.308	.265	.287	.329	.350	97.1%
2009 zips projection	540	497	132	20	5	10	12	4	39	67	.265	.324	.383	72	.305	.263	.284	.326	.347	96.1%
2009 cairo projection	540	485	130	21	4	9	10	4	42	68	.268	.325	.382	72	.303	.261	.282	.324	.346	95.6%
2009 average projection	540	489	132	21	4	9	11	4	42	68	.270	.330	.384	73	.308	.265	.287	.329	.350	97.0%
2009 actuals	540	485	133	28	1	13	10	2	43	59	.274	.333	.416	81	.317	.274	.296	.339	.360

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	566	515	144	25	4	10	13	5	48	70	.280	.345	.402	80
2009 marcel projection	488	436	118	19	3	8	10	3	40	61	.271	.330	.383	74
2009 pecota projection	484	436	116	19	3	8	10	4	37	61	.267	.324	.376	71
2009 tht projection	525	481	130	21	3	8	11	3	40	67	.270	.331	.376	73
2009 zips projection	553	509	135	20	5	10	12	4	40	69	.265	.324	.383	72
2009 cairo projection	523	469	126	20	4	9	9	4	41	66	.268	.325	.382	72
2009 average projection	523	474	128	21	4	9	11	4	41	66	.270	.330	.384	73
2009 actuals	540	485	133	28	1	13	10	2	43	59	.274	.336	.416	81

BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA)
%: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)

Melky was about one win better than projected on offense, solely due to an increase in power (seven more 2Bs and four more HRs than projected). Like most of his teammates, Melky took advantage of DNYS, but only in the HR department. He hit .271/.336/.424 at home and .278/.336/.409 on the road. His average and OBP were essentially right where they were projected to be. CHONE was the closest system on Melky, although it overprojected his OBP and underprojected his SLG. He was still a little below average and the only regular in the starting lineup to be so, but after two straight disappointing seasons it was nice to see him improve.

Melky's defense, while not as good as Gardner's, was also an asset, as he saved four runs above average according to zone rating and one run above average according to UZR.

Unlike Melky, Joba Chamberlain did not exceed his projections.

joba chamberlain	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	157	137	64	59	14	61	174	3.39	3.30	19	39	71.3%	70.3%
2009 marcel projection	157	139	59	54	11	57	163	3.07	3.14	25	45	64.7%	66.9%
2009 pecota projection	157	135	59	54	10	60	169	3.09	3.05	25	44	65.1%	64.9%
2009 tht projection	157	129	60	56	13	61	175	3.20	3.19	23	42	67.4%	68.0%
2009 zips projection	157	152	71	66	14	62	155	3.77	3.61	13	32	79.4%	76.9%
2009 cairo projection	157	149	65	60	14	54	161	3.45	3.36	18	38	72.6%	71.5%
2009 average projection	157	140	63	58	13	59	166	3.33	3.27	20	40	70.1%	69.8%
2009 actual	157	167	94	83	21	76	133	4.75	4.69	-4	15

joba chamberlain	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	101	88	41	38	9	39	112	3.39	3.30	13	25	71.3%	70.3%
2009 marcel projection	85	75	32	29	6	31	88	3.07	3.14	14	24	64.7%	66.9%
2009 pecota projection	124	107	47	43	8	47	133	3.09	3.05	19	35	65.1%	64.9%
2009 tht projection	100	82	38	36	8	39	111	3.20	3.19	14	27	67.4%	68.0%
2009 zips projection	131	127	59	55	12	52	129	3.77	3.61	11	27	79.4%	76.9%
2009 cairo projection	117	111	49	45	11	40	120	3.45	3.36	14	28	72.6%	71.5%
2009 average projection	110	98	44	41	9	41	116	3.33	3.27	14	28	70.1%	69.8%
2009 actual	157	167	94	83	21	76	133	4.75	4.69	-4	15

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

Where to start? HR rate way up. BB rate way up. K rate way down. Hit rate way up. ERA and FIP way up.

Aside from that, Joba had a great year.

I realize that's a little snarky, because there were some positive developments in 2009. The most important thing was he was able to make 31 starts and pitch 157.1 innings, which should mean he would be able to handle a full workload as a starter next year.

Joba's velocity was down in 2009, even when we remove his pitches in relief. Here's a Pitch F/X comparison of Joba as a starter in 2008 compared to Joba as a starter in 2009.

Type (as a starter in 2008)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %
Fastball	715	100.2	89.8	95.1	36.9%	6.0%	20.1%	20.3%	10.6%	4.2%	0.1%
Slider	248	89.2	80.5	85.3	27.0%	26.2%	12.1%	14.5%	9.3%	4.0%	0.4%
Curveball	126	86.0	72.8	78.2	38.1%	5.6%	7.1%	34.9%	6.3%	3.2%	0.0%
Change-up	28	89.3	80.9	83.5	35.7%	14.3%	21.4%	7.1%	10.7%	10.7%	0.0%
Total	1117	100.2	72.8	85.5	34.8%	10.7%	16.9%	20.3%	9.8%	4.2%	0.2%
Type (as a starter in 2009)	#	max	min	avg	ball %	stkS%	foul%	stkC%	In play, out(s)%	In play, no out %	HBP %
Four-seam fastball	1711	97.6	87.0	92.5	40.9%	3.3%	15.7%	20.2%	12.1%	4.3%	0.4%
Slider	514	92.2	75.0	84.6	27.4%	18.1%	12.3%	18.7%	11.3%	4.5%	0.4%
Curveball	329	92.0	73.0	79.3	39.5%	14.9%	8.5%	21.3%	7.0%	1.8%	0.6%
Change-up	129	87.6	77.4	82.3	39.5%	12.4%	13.2%	14.0%	10.1%	7.0%	0.0%
Total	2683	97.6	73.0	84.7	38.1%	8.0%	14.0%	19.7%	11.2%	4.1%	0.4%

Joba's fastball was down about 2.6 mph on average from 2008. He also had worse command of it, and got fewer swinging strikes with it. His slider velocity and command look similar between 2008 and 2009, but he got fewer swings and misses with it. That could be related to lower fastball velocity/command making it easier to sit slider and adjust to the fastball, or it could be related to a myriad of other things.

We don't know if Joba will get his velocity back. It's possible that whatever he suffered in Texas has taken some of it away for good. Then again, it may just be a conditioning issue or a mechanical issue that could be fixed.

Justin Verlander lost some juice on his fastball in 2008 but recoverd it in 2009 (2007 avg FB: 94.8, 2008 avg FB: 93.6, 2009 avg FB: 95.6), so I think that's encouraging in the case of Joba.

A lot of people have criticized the Yankees for their handling of Chamberlain, but that's just symptomatic of impatience and the need to complain just to complain. The Yankees are handling him in a manner that they feel will be in the best interests of him and the team in the long-term. If that's the goal, why would you judge it on the results in the near-term? In a few years, we'll know whether or not they were right.

Even though the Yankees bought the World Series, they can point to Melky and Joba as contributors they drafted/signed and developed.

--Posted at 6:35 pm by SG / 29 Comments | - (82)

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2009 Yankees Season in Review: C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett

Next up, a look at the Yankees’ top two starters.

In 2008 the Yankees had to give 43 starts to Darrell Rasner, Snacks Pontoon and Carl Pavano.  In addition to that, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy were both awful.  Between that and Mike Mussina’s retirement, upgrading the starting pitching was the Yankees’ chief priority for 2009.  So they went out and signed the two best free agent starting pitchers on the market in C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett.

We'll start things off with C.C.

c.c. sabathia	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	230	223	95	87	21	47	202	3.41	3.23	28	57	101.4%	95.6%
2009 marcel projection	230	211	88	78	20	55	217	3.07	3.13	37	65	91.3%	92.8%
2009 pecota projection	230	221	96	88	22	53	200	3.43	3.38	27	56	101.9%	100.1%
2009 tht projection	230	212	90	83	21	48	203	3.25	3.28	32	61	96.6%	97.1%
2009 zips projection	230	221	85	78	22	48	210	3.07	3.23	37	65	91.1%	95.5%
2009 cairo projection	230	223	99	89	21	61	200	3.48	3.44	26	55	103.4%	101.7%
2009 average projection	230	219	92	84	21	52	205	3.29	3.28	31	60	97.6%	97.1%
2009 actual	230	197	96	86	18	67	197	3.37	3.38	29	58

c.c. sabathia	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	211	205	87	80	19	43	185	3.41	3.23	26	52	101.4%	95.6%
2009 marcel projection	211	194	81	72	18	50	199	3.07	3.13	34	60	91.3%	92.8%
2009 pecota projection	231	222	96	88	22	53	201	3.43	3.38	27	56	101.9%	100.1%
2009 tht projection	214	197	83	77	20	45	189	3.25	3.28	30	56	96.6%	97.1%
2009 zips projection	223	214	82	76	21	47	204	3.07	3.23	36	63	91.1%	95.5%
2009 cairo projection	229	222	99	88	21	61	199	3.48	3.44	26	55	103.4%	101.7%
2009 average projection	220	209	88	80	20	50	196	3.29	3.28	30	57	97.6%	97.1%
2009 actual	230	197	96	86	18	67	197	3.37	3.38	29	58

FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA/R: Runs saved above average/replacement level
dERA: Projected ERA divided by actual ERA (> 100 means projection was worse than actual)
dFIP: Projected FIP divided by actual FIP (>100 means projection was worse than actual)

I've been having fun with PECOTA being bad in a lot of cases this year, so it should be noted that they pretty much nailed Sabathia's 2009. All the projections were pretty close though, as Sabathia effectively hit his average projection at 58 RSAR, or 5.8 WAR (wins above replacement).

Sabathia did his best pitching down the stretch. From August 8th through the end of the postseaon Sabathia threw 111 innings, allowing 82 hits and eight HRs whle walking 33 and striking out 115. He had an RA of 2.68, an ERA of 2.11 and a FIP of 3.17. In the postseason, he made five starts (two on three days rest), pitching 28 innings, striking out 32, with an RA of 2.23, ERA of 1.98, and a FIP of 3.94. The Yankees won four of those five starts en route to #27.

Signing a pitcher is always a risk, but at least in 2009 the Sabathia signing worked out about as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped.

Moving on to Burnett, here's how he projected compared to how he did.

a.j. burnett	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	207	198	97	89	20	78	203	3.88	3.61	14	40	96.0%	84.2%
2009 marcel projection	207	193	101	92	21	79	200	3.99	3.72	12	37	98.8%	86.8%
2009 pecota projection	207	197	96	88	20	77	187	3.82	3.73	16	42	94.4%	87.0%
2009 tht projection	207	193	96	89	21	77	194	3.85	3.76	15	41	95.2%	87.6%
2009 zips projection	207	199	99	91	23	76	197	3.97	3.86	12	38	98.2%	89.9%
2009 cairo projection	207	198	103	94	22	62	195	4.07	3.58	10	36	100.8%	83.4%
2009 average projection	207	196	99	90	21	75	196	3.93	3.71	13	39	97.2%	86.5%
2009 actual	207	193	99	93	25	97	195	4.04	4.29	11	36

a.j. burnett	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	dERA	dFIP
2009 chone projection	167	160	78	72	16	63	164	3.88	3.61	12	32	96.0%	84.2%
2009 marcel projection	187	174	91	83	19	71	181	3.99	3.72	11	34	98.8%	86.8%
2009 pecota projection	197	187	92	84	19	73	178	3.82	3.73	15	40	94.4%	87.0%
2009 tht projection	188	175	87	80	19	70	176	3.85	3.76	14	37	95.2%	87.6%
2009 zips projection	179	172	85	79	20	66	170	3.97	3.86	11	33	98.2%	89.9%
2009 cairo projection	192	183	95	87	20	58	180	4.07	3.58	9	33	100.8%	83.4%
2009 average projection	185	175	88	81	19	67	175	3.93	3.71	12	35	97.2%	86.5%
2009 actual	207	193	99	93	25	97	195	4.04	4.29	11	36

On a rate basis, Burnett's projections were all fairly close to what he ended up doing in terms of value. However, Burnett's peripherals were worse. Well, actually the big issue was the spike in walks, everything else was about right.

In the postseason, Burnett made five starts. While his overall postseason ERA of 5.27 was not very good, in terms of the starts, two of them were really bad (a combined 13.50 ERA in ALCS Game 5 and WS Game 5), but three were really good (1.86 ERA in Game 2 of the ALDS, Game 2 of the ALCS, and Game 2 of the World Series).

A lot of people hated the Burnett signing because of his injury history and they may be vindicated some time over the next four seasons, but in 2009 he was able to make every start and was worth his contract. Burnett also provided walkoff pies to the face, which was a fun thing to watch.

The Yankees and their fans should be happy with how both guys performed overall this year.

--Posted at 7:32 am by SG / 61 Comments | - (66)

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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

2009 Yankees Season in Review: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher and Hideki Matsui

I figured it’s time to get through the rest of these and go full bore into off-season mode, so here’s a tripleheader look at how the Yankees’ starting corner OFs and DH performed relative to expectations in 2009.

Since it's come up in a few of the previous reviews, I'll show two tables for the projections. The first will have them all pro-rated to the actual 2009 PAs, and the second one will be the projections with their original estimated playing times.

johnny damon	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	626	561	155	27	3	15	19	5	63	82	.276	.351	.417	85	.330	.290	.310	.350	.371	93.2%
2009 marcel projection	626	555	153	28	3	16	24	7	63	88	.276	.348	.428	87	.329	.289	.309	.350	.370	92.9%
2009 pecota projection	626	554	155	29	5	14	26	7	62	88	.280	.353	.423	87	.331	.291	.311	.351	.371	93.4%
2009 tht projection	626	559	153	28	3	14	24	5	64	87	.273	.351	.412	85	.328	.288	.308	.349	.369	92.7%
2009 zips projection	626	562	163	30	4	15	25	7	62	78	.291	.363	.438	92	.342	.302	.322	.363	.383	96.6%
2009 cairo projection	626	556	157	29	4	15	22	6	62	84	.282	.354	.433	89	.335	.294	.314	.355	.375	94.4%
2009 average projection	626	558	156	29	4	15	23	6	63	85	.280	.353	.425	88	.333	.292	.313	.353	.373	93.9%
2009 actuals	626	550	155	36	3	24	12	0	71	98	.282	.364	.489	101	.355	.313	.334	.375	.396

Projection	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650
2009 chone projection	615	551	152	27	3	15	19	5	62	81	.276	.351	.417	85
2009 marcel projection	572	507	140	26	3	15	22	6	58	80	.276	.348	.428	87
2009 pecota projection	549	486	136	26	4	12	22	6	55	77	.280	.353	.423	87
2009 tht projection	573	512	140	26	3	13	22	5	59	80	.273	.351	.412	85
2009 zips projection	628	564	164	30	4	15	25	7	62	78	.291	.363	.438	92
2009 cairo projection	634	564	159	30	4	16	22	6	63	86	.282	.354	.433	89
2009 average projection	595	530	148	27	4	14	22	6	60	80	.280	.353	.425	88
2009 actuals	626	550	155	36	3	24	12	0	71	98	.282	.365	.489	101

BR/650: Linear weights batting runs pro-rated to 650 PAs
wOBA: Weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
n Std: Standard deviation of wOBA using the formula SQRT(wOBA*(1.1-wOBA)/PA) %: Percentage of projected wOBA compared to actual (less than 100 means the projection was worse than actual, greater than 100 means the projection was better than actual)

In the final year of a four year contract that turned out a lot better than I expected, Johnny Damon put up the best OPS+ of his career, tying his career-high in HRs with 24. Damon essentially hit for the same average as projected by most of the systems, but showed more pop in both doubles and HRs. The HRs are easily explained by DNYS (where Damon his 17 of 24 HRs). Damon hit .279/.382/ .533 at home compared to .284/.349/.446 on the road. He also walked and struck out a little more than projected. ZiPS was the closest on Damon, although all the systems missed low.

The glove? Let's just say Damon had a very good offensive season.

Nick Swisher	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	BR/650	wOBA	-2 Std	-1 Std	+1 Std	+2 Std	%
2009 chone projection	607	515	127	26	1	26	3	1	87	134	.247	.360	.454	92	.345	.303	.324	.365	.386	96.6%
2009 marcel projection	607	509	125	26	1	23	3	2	85	131	.245	.357	.434	88	.337	.296	.316	.357	.378	94.4%
2009 pecota projection	607	511	125	26	1	27	3	2	82	139	.244	.352	.460	91	.340	.298	.319	.360	.381	95.2%
2009 tht projection	607	517	128	27	1	25	3	2	84	131	.247	.359	.447	91	.342	.301	.322	.363	.384	95.9%
2009 zips projection	607	516	131	29	2	27	3	2	85	138	.254	.366	.471	96	.352	.310	.331	.373	.394	98.7%
2009 cairo projection	607	510	123	28	1	24	2	2	85	135	.240	.353	.442	88	.336	.295	.315	.356	.377	94.1%
2009 average projection	607	513	126	27	1	25	3	2	84	135	.246	.358	.451	91	.342	.301	.321	.363	.383	95.8%
2009 actuals	607	498	124	35	1	29	0	0	97	126	.249	.369	.498	101	.357	.315	.336	.378	.399

Projection

PA

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

SB

CS

BB

SO

AVG

OBP

SLG

BR/650