Sunday, June 29, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 29
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 3.8 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.4 | 2.6 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 4.9 | 3.1 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.4 | 3.6 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 5.9 | 4.1 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.4 | 4.6 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 6.9 | 5.1 | 8 | 4 |
| 2-Jun | @Twins | 7.4 | 5.6 | 8 | 5 |
| 3-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.0 | 6.0 | 8 | 6 |
| 4-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.6 | 6.4 | 9 | 6 |
| 5-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.2 | 6.8 | 10 | 6 |
| 6-Jun | Royals | 9.8 | 7.2 | 10 | 7 |
| 7-Jun | Royals | 10.4 | 7.6 | 11 | 7 |
| 8-Jun | Royals | 11.1 | 7.9 | 12 | 7 |
| 9-Jun | Royals | 11.7 | 8.3 | 12 | 8 |
| 10-Jun | @Athletics | 12.2 | 8.8 | 13 | 8 |
| 11-Jun | @Athletics | 12.7 | 9.3 | 13 | 9 |
| 12-Jun | @Athletics | 13.1 | 9.9 | 14 | 9 |
| 13-Jun | @Astros | 13.7 | 10.3 | 15 | 9 |
| 14-Jun | @Astros | 14.2 | 10.8 | 16 | 9 |
| 15-Jun | @Astros | 14.8 | 11.2 | 17 | 9 |
| 17-Jun | Padres | 15.4 | 11.6 | 18 | 9 |
| 18-Jun | Padres | 16.1 | 11.9 | 19 | 9 |
| 19-Jun | Padres | 16.7 | 12.3 | 20 | 9 |
| 20-Jun | Reds | 17.4 | 12.6 | 20 | 10 |
| 21-Jun | Reds | 18.0 | 13.0 | 20 | 11 |
| 22-Jun | Reds | 18.6 | 13.4 | 21 | 11 |
| 24-Jun | @Pirates | 19.2 | 13.8 | 21 | 12 |
| 25-Jun | @Pirates | 19.7 | 14.3 | 22 | 12 |
| 27-Jun | @Mets | 20.2 | 14.8 | 22 | 13 |
| 27-Jun | @Mets | 20.7 | 15.3 | 23 | 13 |
| 28-Jun | @Mets | 21.2 | 15.8 | 24 | 13 |
| 29-Jun | @Mets | 21.7 | 16.3 | 24 | 14 |
Despite losing 5 of their last 9 games, the Yankees are still ahead of expectations on the easy portion of their schedule. I'd probably extend the easy schedule to include the upcoming 3 game set with the Texas Rangers, who are hitting pretty well (team OPS+ of 116) but pitching poorly (team ERA+ of 83).
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 24
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.1 | 1.9 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 3.8 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.3 | 2.7 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 4.8 | 3.2 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.3 | 3.7 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 5.8 | 4.2 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.2 | 4.8 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 6.7 | 5.3 | 8 | 4 |
| 2-Jun | @Twins | 7.2 | 5.8 | 8 | 5 |
| 3-Jun | Blue Jays | 7.8 | 6.2 | 8 | 6 |
| 4-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.4 | 6.6 | 9 | 6 |
| 5-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.0 | 7.0 | 10 | 6 |
| 6-Jun | Royals | 9.6 | 7.4 | 10 | 7 |
| 7-Jun | Royals | 10.3 | 7.7 | 11 | 7 |
| 8-Jun | Royals | 10.9 | 8.1 | 12 | 7 |
| 9-Jun | Royals | 11.5 | 8.5 | 12 | 8 |
| 10-Jun | @Athletics | 12.0 | 9.0 | 13 | 8 |
| 11-Jun | @Athletics | 12.4 | 9.6 | 13 | 9 |
| 12-Jun | @Athletics | 12.9 | 10.1 | 14 | 9 |
| 13-Jun | @Astros | 13.4 | 10.6 | 15 | 9 |
| 14-Jun | @Astros | 13.9 | 11.1 | 16 | 9 |
| 15-Jun | @Astros | 14.5 | 11.5 | 17 | 9 |
| 17-Jun | Padres | 15.1 | 11.9 | 18 | 9 |
| 18-Jun | Padres | 15.8 | 12.2 | 19 | 9 |
| 19-Jun | Padres | 16.4 | 12.6 | 20 | 9 |
| 20-Jun | Reds | 17.1 | 12.9 | 20 | 10 |
| 21-Jun | Reds | 17.7 | 13.3 | 20 | 11 |
| 22-Jun | Reds | 18.3 | 13.7 | 21 | 11 |
The good news is that the Yankees are still playing ahead of expectations since the easy schedule started. On May 19th they were 20-24 and 6.5 games out of first. They lost the next game to drop to 20-25 and 7.5 out, and have since then gone 21-10 and now sit 41-35 and 4.5 games back.
So that's the good news. The bad news is that it's almost over.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 15 Happy Father’s Day Edition
On May 19th, I took a look at the Yankees' schedule through the All Star Break. It appeared, at least on paper, that the Yankees were entering a fairly soft part of their schedule. Here's how they've done since then, comparing their expected W/L record using Bill James's log 5 method for calculating expected winning percentage and their actual performance.| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 4.0 | 2.0 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.6 | 2.4 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 5.2 | 2.8 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.8 | 3.2 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 6.3 | 3.7 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.9 | 4.1 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 7.4 | 4.6 | 8 | 4 |
| 2-Jun | @Twins | 8.0 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 |
| 3-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.6 | 5.4 | 8 | 6 |
| 4-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.2 | 5.8 | 9 | 6 |
| 5-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.8 | 6.2 | 10 | 6 |
| 6-Jun | Royals | 10.4 | 6.6 | 10 | 7 |
| 7-Jun | Royals | 11.1 | 6.9 | 11 | 7 |
| 8-Jun | Royals | 11.8 | 7.2 | 12 | 7 |
| 9-Jun | Royals | 12.4 | 7.6 | 12 | 8 |
| 10-Jun | @Athletics | 12.9 | 8.1 | 13 | 8 |
| 11-Jun | @Athletics | 13.2 | 8.8 | 13 | 9 |
| 12-Jun | @Athletics | 13.7 | 9.3 | 14 | 9 |
| 13-Jun | @Astros | 14.3 | 9.7 | 15 | 9 |
| 14-Jun | @Astros | 14.8 | 10.2 | 16 | 9 |
| 15-Jun | @Astros | 15.4 | 10.6 | 17 | 9 |
So the Yankees have played a little less than two wins better than expected over the last 26 games. They've picked up 1.5 games in the division, and have scored 148 runs while allowing 118. So that's 5.7 runs scored per game and 4.5 runs allowed per game, equivalent to 922 runs scored and 735 runs allowed over a full season.
It's also a Pythagenpat winning percentage of 60.7%, which is equivalent to 16 wins over 26 games and 98 wins over 162 games.
Today's blowout 13-0 victory over Houston also gives them a positive run differential for the first time since May 10.
That's the good news. The bad news is that because of the ridiculous farce that is inter-league play, Chien-Ming Wang injured his foot doing something he shouldn't have been doing. Right now it's being called a sprained foot. Wang will have tests on his foot when the team returns to New York. Let's hope it's not too serious, as Wang appears to have recovered from a rough stretch to throw 12.1 innings of one run ball over his last two starts.
Monday, June 9, 2008
A Graphical Representation of Mediocrity
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Easy Schedule Checkpoint - June 1
| Date | Opponent | Exp W | Exp L | Act W | Act L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.6 | 1.4 | 3 | 1 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 1 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 3.9 | 2.1 | 5 | 1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 2 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 5.1 | 2.9 | 5 | 3 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.7 | 3.3 | 6 | 3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 6.2 | 3.8 | 7 | 3 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.8 | 4.2 | 8 | 3 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 7.3 | 4.7 | 8 | 4 |
Exp W: Expected wins using log5
Exp L: Expected losses using log5
Act W: Actual wins
Act L: Actual losses
Despite falling to the Twins earlier today, 5-1, the Yankees have so far been able to exceed their expected record through what on paper looks like an easy part of their schedule by a little less than a win.
On a completely unrelated note, rilkefan asked if I could plot the distribution of RA-ERA to see if Mike Mussina gives up a larger percentage of unearned runs than the typical pitcher. That's certainly been true this year, with Moose's respectable 4.26 ERA masking 9 unearned runs and an RA of 5.58.
Here's a graph with three sets of data. The blue line is Mussina's RA - ERA for every season of his career. The red line is the AL average for the same numbers. Lastly, the yellow line is for just Moose's teams, to account for the quality (or lack thereof) of the defense behind him in each season.
On average, Mussina's RA - ERA is 0.31, with a standard deviation of 0.28. The league average over that same stretch (1991-2008) is 0.41 with a standard deviation of 0.03. For his teams, the average RA - ERA has been 0.33 with a standard deviation of 0.08. So Moose has actually given up slightly fewer unearned runs than his teammates, but there is a fair amount of volatility in his season to season performance.
Update: yfinBrazil caught something I missed from rilkefan's original question, which is that we should divide RA-ERA by RA to account for the fact that Mussina has typically prevented runs of all kinds better than most other pitchers. Here's how that chart looks.
The numbers here show that on average, Mussina has allowed about 7% more runs than earned runs with a standard deviation of 0.05. The AL over that same stretch has allowed a very consistent 8% more runs than earned runs. Mussina's teams are at 7% as well, with a lower standard deviation (0.02).
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
2007 vs. 2008 through 45 games
Here's a game by game comparison of the first 45 games of the Yankees' 2007 and 2008.| 2007 | 2008 | ||||||
| Gm | W/L | RF | RA | W/L | RF | RA | |
| 1 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | 2-2 | 4 | 13 | |
| 5 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | 8 | 2 | 3-3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 7 | 4-3 | 10 | 1 | 4-3 | 6 | 1 | |
| 8 | 4-4 | 1 | 5 | 4-4 | 2 | 5 | |
| 9 | 4-5 | 4 | 5 | 4-5 | 0 | 4 | |
| 10 | 5-5 | 4 | 3 | 5-5 | 6 | 1 | |
| 11 | 5-6 | 4 | 5 | 6-5 | 4 | 1 | |
| 12 | 6-6 | 10 | 3 | 6-6 | 3 | 4 | |
| 13 | 7-6 | 9 | 2 | 6-7 | 5 | 8 | |
| 14 | 8-6 | 8 | 6 | 7-7 | 8 | 7 | |
| 15 | 8-7 | 6 | 7 | 8-7 | 5 | 3 | |
| 16 | 8-8 | 5 | 7 | 9-7 | 15 | 9 | |
| 17 | 8-9 | 6 | 7 | 9-8 | 5 | 7 | |
| 18 | 8-10 | 8 | 10 | 9-9 | 2 | 8 | |
| 19 | 8-11 | 4 | 6 | 9-10 | 0 | 6 | |
| 20 | 8-12 | 0 | 6 | 10-10 | 7 | 1 | |
| 21 | 8-13 | 4 | 11 | 11-10 | 9 | 5 | |
| 22 | 9-13 | 3 | 1 | 12-10 | 6 | 4 | |
| 23 | 9-14 | 4 | 7 | 12-11 | 6 | 7 | |
| 24 | 10-14 | 10 | 1 | 12-12 | 4 | 6 | |
| 25 | 11-14 | 4 | 3 | 12-13 | 3 | 4 | |
| 26 | 12-14 | 5 | 2 | 13-13 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 12-15 | 11 | 15 | 14-13 | 5 | 2 | |
| 28 | 13-15 | 8 | 1 | 14-14 | 4 | 6 | |
| 29 | 14-15 | 5 | 0 | 14-15 | 2 | 6 | |
| 30 | 14-16 | 2 | 3 | 14-16 | 4 | 8 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | 8 | 2 | 15-16 | 5 | 1 | |
| 32 | 16-16 | 6 | 2 | 16-16 | 6 | 1 | |
| 33 | 16-17 | 2 | 14 | 17-16 | 8 | 2 | |
| 34 | 16-18 | 0 | 3 | 17-17 | 3 | 5 | |
| 35 | 17-18 | 7 | 2 | 17-18 | 0 | 3 | |
| 36 | 17-19 | 1 | 2 | 18-18 | 6 | 3 | |
| 37 | 17-20 | 3 | 5 | 18-19 | 5 | 6 | |
| 38 | 18-20 | 8 | 1 | 19-19 | 5 | 2 | |
| 39 | 18-21 | 1 | 4 | 19-20 | 1 | 7 | |
| 40 | 18-22 | 2 | 3 | 19-21 | 1 | 2 | |
| 41 | 18-23 | 7 | 10 | 20-21 | 2 | 1 | |
| 42 | 19-23 | 6 | 2 | 20-22 | 2 | 5 | |
| 43 | 20-23 | 6 | 2 | 20-23 | 4 | 7 | |
| 44 | 20-24 | 3 | 7 | 20-24 | 2 | 11 | |
| 45 | 21-24 | 8 | 3 | 20-25 | 2 | 12 | |
| 244 | 212 | 181 | 209 | ||||
| PtyhagenPat | 26-19 | 20-25 | |||||
| On Pace | 87-75 | 71-91 |
Gm: Game # of season
W/L: Win-Loss record after that Gm
RF: Runs for
RA: Runs against
Although the Yankees are only one game off last year's pace, it's worth noting the difference in run differential between last year. Last year's team was 21-24 but if they played to their run differential for the rest of the season they'd have been expected to win 66 of their remaining games and a end up with a total of 87 wins using Pythagenpat (a more advanced form of the Pythagorean theorem). This year's team has allowed 3 fewer runs than last years, but has scored 63 fewer. The reduced run-scoring this year is part of the offensive reduction, but that also means the pitching/defense has been worse. If the 2008 Yankees play to their current run differential for the rest of the season, they're a 71 win team.
This team's record is reflective of their poor play to this point as opposed to last year, where there were reasonable expectations for improvement based on their runs for and runs against. That doesn't mean we shouldn't expect individual players to improve if they are playing below their talent level, but right now this team is every bit as bad statistically as they are in the standings.
Easier schedule starts tonight, I swear.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Is the Yankees Schedule About to Get Easier?
This was a topic of debate in the last thread, so let's try and look at it empirically. I'll be using Bill James's log 5 method to assign a probability for the Yankees winning each game.I'm assuming a 4/3/2/1 weight for 2008/2007/2006/2005 which means 2008 should be weighed at 15.6%, but I'm going to bump that up to 20% to account for roster changes that weren't captured in the original projections. So a team like Baltimore would have projected to be a 67 win team going into the season but their better than expected play gives them a four win boost to a 71 win team. The Yankees were projected around 95 wins but their underperformance to this point makes them a 91 win team right now.
Home teams get a 0.02 boost, road teams get a 0.02 debit. I then ran each game through the log 5 formula and summed it up.
So here's the Yankee schedule through the All Star Break.
| Date | Opponent | W | L |
| 20-May | Orioles | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 21-May | Orioles | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 22-May | Orioles | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 23-May | Mariners | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 24-May | Mariners | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 25-May | Mariners | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| 26-May | @Orioles | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| 27-May | @Orioles | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| 28-May | @Orioles | 5.7 | 3.3 |
| 30-May | @Twins | 6.2 | 3.8 |
| 31-May | @Twins | 6.8 | 4.2 |
| 1-Jun | @Twins | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| 2-Jun | @Twins | 7.9 | 5.1 |
| 3-Jun | Blue Jays | 8.4 | 5.6 |
| 4-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.0 | 6.0 |
| 5-Jun | Blue Jays | 9.6 | 6.4 |
| 6-Jun | Royals | 10.3 | 6.7 |
| 7-Jun | Royals | 10.9 | 7.1 |
| 8-Jun | Royals | 11.5 | 7.5 |
| 9-Jun | Royals | 12.2 | 7.8 |
| 10-Jun | @Athletics | 12.7 | 8.3 |
| 11-Jun | @Athletics | 13.2 | 8.8 |
| 12-Jun | @Athletics | 13.7 | 9.3 |
| 13-Jun | @Astros | 14.3 | 9.7 |
| 14-Jun | @Astros | 14.8 | 10.2 |
| 15-Jun | @Astros | 15.4 | 10.6 |
| 17-Jun | Padres | 16.0 | 11.0 |
| 18-Jun | Padres | 16.6 | 11.4 |
| 19-Jun | Padres | 17.2 | 11.8 |
| 20-Jun | Reds | 17.8 | 12.2 |
| 21-Jun | Reds | 18.5 | 12.5 |
| 22-Jun | Reds | 19.1 | 12.9 |
| 24-Jun | @Pirates | 19.7 | 13.3 |
| 25-Jun | @Pirates | 20.2 | 13.8 |
| 26-Jun | @Pirates | 20.8 | 14.2 |
| 27-Jun | @Mets | 21.3 | 14.7 |
| 28-Jun | @Mets | 21.7 | 15.3 |
| 29-Jun | @Mets | 22.2 | 15.8 |
| 30-Jun | Rangers | 22.8 | 16.2 |
| 1-Jul | Rangers | 23.4 | 16.6 |
| 2-Jul | Rangers | 24.1 | 16.9 |
| 3-Jul | Red Sox | 24.6 | 17.4 |
| 4-Jul | Red Sox | 25.1 | 17.9 |
| 5-Jul | Red Sox | 25.7 | 18.3 |
| 6-Jul | Red Sox | 26.2 | 18.8 |
| 8-Jul | Rays | 26.8 | 19.2 |
| 9-Jul | Rays | 27.4 | 19.6 |
| 11-Jul | @Blue Jays | 27.9 | 20.1 |
| 12-Jul | @Blue Jays | 28.4 | 20.6 |
| 13-Jul | @Blue Jays | 28.9 | 21.1 |
Through June 26th Yankees play enough bad teams that we'd expect them to go somewhere in the neighborhood of 21-14, which is equivalent to a pace of 96 wins over 162 games. That would get them to 41-38 which still doesn't seem all that impressive, so maybe they can steal a few extra games in here.
Looking at the bigger picture through the All Star Break, the schedule gets harder but the Yankees should go 29-21 or so over their next 50 games, which is equivalent to a 93.5 win pace over a full season. If they can do that or something close to that, they'll go into the All Star Break at a record of 49-45.
So I think we'll know by June 26th if this team has any chance at contending.
Friday, May 2, 2008
MLB Actual Standings vs Projected Standings as of May 1,2008
I don't feel about writing about last night's 8-4 loss to the Tigers, so here's a little comparison of how MLB is shaping up so far this season compared to the preseason projections I ran. The first group of columns if or actual YTD performance, the second set is for the average of the projection systems I ran in the post linked above, and then the last set are the differences between the two. So in the case the Yankees, they were projected to win 18 of 30 games and score 171 runs while allowing 142. Instead they've won 4 fewer games and scored 42 fewer runs than expected.This doesn't factor in difficulty of schedule which may impact some teams more than others, I am strictly multiplying overall 162 game projections time actual games played. That shouldn't be a huge impact, but it should be considered.
| American League | Actual | Projected | Diff | |||||||||||
| EAST | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | ||
| Tampa Bay | 16 | 12 | 134 | 111 | 14 | 14 | 141 | 138 | 2 | -2 | -7 | -27 | ||
| Boston | 17 | 13 | 136 | 133 | 17 | 13 | 159 | 137 | 0 | 0 | -23 | -4 | ||
| Baltimore | 15 | 13 | 118 | 126 | 12 | 16 | 130 | 158 | 3 | -3 | -12 | -32 | ||
| NY Yankees | 14 | 16 | 129 | 141 | 18 | 12 | 171 | 142 | -4 | 4 | -42 | -1 | ||
| Toronto | 12 | 17 | 119 | 112 | 15 | 14 | 139 | 131 | -3 | 3 | -20 | -19 | ||
| CENTRAL | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| Chicago Sox | 14 | 12 | 131 | 105 | 12 | 14 | 126 | 139 | 2 | -2 | 5 | -34 | ||
| Cleveland | 14 | 15 | 130 | 122 | 16 | 13 | 150 | 132 | -2 | 2 | -20 | -10 | ||
| Detroit | 14 | 15 | 150 | 152 | 16 | 13 | 154 | 136 | -2 | 2 | -4 | 16 | ||
| Minnesota | 13 | 14 | 102 | 122 | 13 | 14 | 121 | 131 | 0 | 0 | -19 | -9 | ||
| Kansas City | 12 | 16 | 101 | 131 | 13 | 15 | 131 | 146 | -1 | 1 | -30 | -15 | ||
| WEST | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| LA Angels | 18 | 12 | 148 | 144 | 16 | 14 | 148 | 136 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 8 | ||
| Oakland | 18 | 12 | 150 | 110 | 15 | 15 | 141 | 143 | 3 | -3 | 9 | -33 | ||
| Seattle | 13 | 16 | 129 | 122 | 14 | 15 | 128 | 137 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -15 | ||
| Texas | 11 | 18 | 132 | 178 | 13 | 16 | 146 | 160 | -2 | 2 | -14 | 19 | ||
| National League | ||||||||||||||
| EAST | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | W | L | RS | RA | ||
| Philadelphia | 16 | 13 | 136 | 124 | 15 | 14 | 156 | 145 | 1 | -1 | -20 | -21 | ||
| NY Mets | 14 | 12 | 119 | 118 | 15 | 11 | 134 | 113 | -1 | 1 | -15 | 5 | ||
| Florida | 15 | 13 | 124 | 142 | 12 | 16 | 129 | 151 | 3 | -3 | -5 | -9 | ||
| Atlanta | 12 | 15 | 129 | 107 | 15 | 12 | 137 | 127 | -3 | 3 | -8 | -20 | ||
| Washington | 12 | 17 | 107 | 136 | 13 | 16 | 137 | 156 | -1 | 1 | -30 | -20 | ||
| CENTRAL | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| St. Louis | 18 | 11 | 135 | 104 | 14 | 15 | 136 | 140 | 4 | -4 | -1 | -36 | ||
| Chicago Cubs | 17 | 11 | 174 | 124 | 15 | 13 | 143 | 130 | 2 | -2 | 31 | -6 | ||
| Milwaukee | 16 | 12 | 130 | 131 | 15 | 13 | 142 | 134 | 1 | -1 | -12 | -3 | ||
| Houston | 13 | 16 | 131 | 132 | 13 | 16 | 136 | 148 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -16 | ||
| Cincinnati | 12 | 17 | 124 | 139 | 14 | 15 | 139 | 148 | -2 | 2 | -15 | -9 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 11 | 17 | 130 | 163 | 12 | 16 | 124 | 145 | -1 | 1 | 6 | 18 | ||
| WEST | W | L | RS | RA | ||||||||||
| Arizona | 20 | 8 | 165 | 109 | 15 | 14 | 131 | 127 | 5 | -6 | 34 | -18 | ||
| LA Dodgers | 15 | 13 | 142 | 110 | 15 | 13 | 132 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -17 | ||
| San Francisco | 13 | 16 | 93 | 131 | 13 | 16 | 122 | 135 | 0 | 0 | -29 | -4 | ||
| Colorado | 11 | 17 | 114 | 144 | 14 | 14 | 143 | 140 | -3 | 3 | -29 | 4 | ||
| San Diego | 11 | 18 | 94 | 133 | 15 | 14 | 132 | 126 | -4 | 4 | -38 | 7 |
So like I said above, the Yankees have been 4 wins worse than projected so far. What's interesting is that despite all the noise/blame being assigned to the young pitching staff, their offense is the real problem. They allowed right around the same number of runs as they projected to, but they scored 42 fewer, which matches up with the 4 win shortfall.
The Yankees are tied with San Diego for the dubious honor of biggest disappointments so far. The Diamondbacks are the biggest positive surprise. Another interesting thing to note is that scoring is down about 7.3% from the projections. It's probably more early statistical noise than anything.
I'm going to be on vacation next week so no posts from me most likely, although I may pipe in if something big happens. Sean and Jonathan will cover for me and hopefully bring better luck than I have been bringing.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Winning Ugly
It wasn’t pretty, but the Yankees managed to take the last game of their four game set with Cleveland last night, 5-2. Mike Mussina pitched well although he was only able to last through five innings. I’m pretty happy with how Moose is pitching this year, although I have to be honest that I don’t know how he’s doing it.
The Yankees didn’t get a hit until the sixth inning, then came the weakest rally ever.
Yankees sixth. Cabrera infield single to third. Jeter infield single to third, Cabrera to second. Abreu singled to left, Cabrera to third, Jeter to second. Rodriguez was hit by a pitch, Cabrera scored, Jeter to third, Abreu to second. Giambi grounded out, first baseman Garko unassisted, Jeter scored, Abreu to third, Rodriguez to second. Matsui grounded out, first baseman Garko unassisted, Abreu scored, Rodriguez to third. Lewis pitching. Ensberg infield single to third, Rodriguez scored. Cano grounded out, pitcher Lewis to second baseman Carroll to first baseman Garko.
That turned out to be enough, as the Yankee pen pitched four scoreless to back up Moose and the Yankee offense added an insurance run in the 8th for the final margin of victory.
At this point, let’s look back at the April Expectations post. Using log5 and the projected winning percentages of the Yankees and their opponents, we see that at this point in the season we should have expected the Yankees to be 15.4 - 11.6. They’re 14-13 instead, so they underperformed by about 1.4 wins. All things considered with injuries and individual players disappointing, that’s not too bad in my opinon.
Alex Rodriguez looks to be out for at least the next two games after re-aggravating his quad injury.
Yanks finally come home after playing more April road games than any team in baseball history to take on the Detroit Tigers, who started out 0-7 but have gone 11-8 since.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Kansas City Here We Come
Behind Bobby Abreu and Mike Mussina the Yankees took the final game of their series with Tampa last night, 6-1., salvaging a series split after losing the first two games. Moose was brilliant, allowing just two hits and one run over six innings. Tampa doesn’t look to have a great offense this season, but they are probably middle of the pack and have some dangerous players in the lineup, so this was a very encouraging outing. Moose’s fastball sat around 85 most of the night, but he had a great slow curve going that helped him keep the Rays off balance. I feel a little more comfortable that Mussina will be serviceable after this game than I did after his first start.
Abreu started the offense off with a two-run HR in the first inning, one of his three hits and a walk on the night. Hideki Matsui also chipped in a couple of hits.
The news wasn’t all good as Derek Jeter left the game with a strained quad and is being listed as day-to-day. While losing Jeter hurts, it shouldn’t be for too long. Also, having Wilson Betemit to replace him instead of my beloved Miguel Cairo makes it sting a little less. With Jason Giambi seemingly unavailable this looks like Morgan Ensberg’s chance for some PT. He hasn’t looked good at scooping throws at first although he seems pretty good at fielding batted balls.
LaTroy Hawkins finally pitched a full scoreless inning as a Yankee. I’m willing to give Hawkins a bit of a long leash because he has a long track record of being useful and he seems like a good guy, as well as our experience with Luis Vizcaino last year. It seems like the fans at the Stadium don’t care about that because he’s had the audacity to wear Paul O’Neill’s number. Hopefully he can get himself sorted out.
Next up, a three game set with the Kansas City Royals. They’re 4-2 and in second place in the AL Central.
To hammer home how early it is, here’s how the final AL standings would look if each team played to their PythagenPat record for the rest of the season.
AL East
TOR 121-41
BAL 98-64
TB 94-68
NYA 65-97
BOS 57-105
AL Central
CHA 105-57
KC 101-61
CLE 78-84
MIN 57-105
DET 26-136
AL West
TEX 94-68
OAK 90-72
LAA 84-78
SEA 76-86
Somewhere Steve Phillips is weeping.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 2
Apparently this entry was too big for one post, so I’ve split it up into two.
Lastly, 1000 iterations of CAIRO| Team | High | Low | StD | StD | StD | Median | Mode | Div W | Wild Card | |||||||
| American League | W | L | RF | RA | DIV | WC | Playoff% | Wins | Wins | W | RF | RA | Wins | Wins | Avg | Avg |
| East | ||||||||||||||||
| Bos08 | 94.2 | 67.8 | 874 | 734 | 488 | 245 | 73% | 114 | 77 | 88 - 100 | 830 - 919 | 696 - 771 | 94 | 93 | 98 | 92 |
| NYA08 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 940 | 802 | 394 | 302 | 70% | 114 | 74 | 87 - 99 | 893 - 986 | 762 - 842 | 93 | 95 | 92 | |
| Tor08 | 86.4 | 75.6 | 779 | 714 | 99 | 182 | 28% | 105 | 67 | 80 - 92 | 737 - 820 | 679 - 749 | 86 | 86 | 86 | |
| Tam08 | 81.4 | 80.6 | 818 | 806 | 19 | 79 | 10% | 101 | 63 | 75 - 88 | 777 - 859 | 765 - 846 | 81 | 80 | 80 | |
| Bal08 | 66.6 | 95.4 | 760 | 948 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 88 | 46 | 60 - 73 | 721 - 799 | 901 - 996 | 66 | 66 | 66 | |
| Central | ||||||||||||||||
| Det08 | 88.5 | 73.5 | 870 | 785 | 496 | 64 | 56% | 107 | 63 | 82 - 95 | 830 - 910 | 745 - 826 | 89 | 87 | 92 | |
| Cle08 | 87.9 | 74.1 | 825 | 739 | 439 | 78 | 52% | 108 | 68 | 82 - 94 | 784 - 865 | 701 - 776 | 88 | 88 | 86 | |
| KC08 | 76.6 | 85.4 | 753 | 813 | 31 | 13 | 4% | 99 | 53 | 70 - 83 | 714 - 792 | 771 - 855 | 77 | 75 | 80 | |
| Min08 | 75.5 | 86.5 | 709 | 765 | 26 | 5 | 3% | 94 | 53 | 69 - 82 | 672 - 746 | 727 - 803 | 76 | 76 | 75 | |
| ChA08 | 73.5 | 88.5 | 769 | 839 | 9 | 5 | 1% | 96 | 49 | 67 - 80 | 728 - 809 | 798 - 881 | 74 | 74 | 69 | |
| West | ||||||||||||||||
| LAA08 | 87.2 | 74.8 | 793 | 731 | 685 | 9 | 69% | 108 | 67 | 81 - 93 | 755 - 832 | 694 - 769 | 87 | 88 | 89 | |
| Sea08 | 80.0 | 82.0 | 741 | 763 | 172 | 11 | 18% | 98 | 63 | 74 - 86 | 702 - 781 | 722 - 804 | 80 | 81 | 82 | |
| Tex08 | 75.9 | 86.1 | 816 | 877 | 84 | 3 | 9% | 97 | 54 | 70 - 82 | 776 - 856 | 834 - 921 | 76 | 75 | 77 | |
| Oak08 | 75.2 | 86.8 | 757 | 816 | 59 | 3 | 6% | 98 | 54 | 69 - 82 | 718 - 795 | 775 - 857 | 75 | 75 | 71 | |
| National League | ||||||||||||||||
| East | ||||||||||||||||
| NYN08 | 94.6 | 67.4 | 833 | 704 | 712 | 125 | 84% | 115 | 76 | 88 - 101 | 793 - 873 | 666 - 742 | 95 | 95 | 96 | 90 |
| Atl08 | 88.4 | 73.6 | 818 | 738 | 243 | 235 | 48% | 109 | 71 | 82 - 95 | 777 - 859 | 700 - 776 | 88 | 88 | 88 | |
| Phi08 | 81.8 | 80.2 | 866 | 839 | 45 | 87 | 13% | 104 | 59 | 76 - 88 | 823 - 909 | 799 - 880 | 81 | 81 | 81 | |
| Was08 | 69.2 | 92.8 | 770 | 888 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 89 | 51 | 63 - 75 | 730 - 810 | 846 - 930 | 69 | 67 | 72 | |
| Flo08 | 68.5 | 93.5 | 743 | 869 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 90 | 48 | 62 - 75 | 705 - 781 | 830 - 909 | 69 | 70 | 65 | |
| Central | ||||||||||||||||
| ChN08 | 88.7 | 73.3 | 839 | 754 | 586 | 41 | 63% | 112 | 72 | 83 - 95 | 798 - 880 | 716 - 792 | 89 | 91 | 91 | |
| Mil08 | 84.0 | 78.0 | 795 | 762 | 231 | 63 | 29% | 105 | 57 | 78 - 90 | 755 - 836 | 725 - 799 | 84 | 84 | 85 | |
| StL08 | 79.7 | 82.3 | 772 | 777 | 84 | 26 | 11% | 100 | 60 | 74 - 86 | 734 - 810 | 738 - 816 | 80 | 83 | 81 | |
| Cin08 | 77.8 | 84.2 | 780 | 825 | 61 | 16 | 8% | 99 | 59 | 71 - 84 | 741 - 817 | 783 - 867 | 78 | 77 | 77 | |
| Hou08 | 75.7 | 86.3 | 780 | 823 | 37 | 11 |