The Curse of... oh, let's say, Clay Bellinger:








RSS 2.0 Atom

*ADVERTISEMENT*
John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain's family. He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need. I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.


*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*

*ADVERTISEMENT*


Mariners (39-38) @ Yankees (45-32), Thursday, July 2, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(196 Comments - 7/3/2009 12:54:58 pm)

Yankees.com: A-Rod puts Yanks’ win streak at seven
(49 Comments - 7/2/2009 7:25:01 pm)

Fangraphs.com: Another Look at HRs at the New Yankee Stadium
(23 Comments - 7/2/2009 6:52:43 pm)

Yankees.com: Yanks make it six straight, pick up Bruney
(155 Comments - 7/2/2009 2:22:32 pm)

Mariners (39-37) @ Yankees (44-32), Wednesday, July 1, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(152 Comments - 7/1/2009 10:00:39 pm)

Mariners (39-36) @ Yankees (43-32), Tuesday, June 30, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
(360 Comments - 7/1/2009 12:41:00 am)

LA Times: Yankees acquire Eric Hinske from Pirates for 2 minor leaguers
(81 Comments - 6/30/2009 7:50:45 pm)

Yankee Zone Rating and Pitching Bar Graphs through Games of June 28, 2009 (UZR added upon request)
(41 Comments - 6/30/2009 1:24:19 pm)

Yankees.com: Rivera notches 500th save
(78 Comments - 6/30/2009 12:59:16 pm)

Yankees (42-32) @ Mets (37-36), Sunday, June 28, 2009, 8:05pm **Game Chatter**
(432 Comments - 6/29/2009 1:34:36 am)



Player

Current Projected
Jonathan Albaladejo
1 G
162 G
1.3 IP
216 IP
Brian Bruney
1 G
162 G
.3 IP
54 IP
Phil Coke
1 G
162 G
1.7 IP
270 IP
Damaso Marte
1 G
162 G
.3 IP
54 IP
Edwar Ramirez
0 G
0 G
0 IP
0 IP
Mariano Rivera
0 G
0 G
0 IP
0 IP
Jose Veras
0 G
0 G
0 IP
0 IP

Look what people have to say about Larry Mahnken's commentary!

"Larry, can you be any more of a Yankee apologist?.... Just look past your Yankee myopia and try some objectivity."
- Bernal Diaz

"Mr. Mahnken is enlightened."
- cordially, as always,
rm

"Wow, Larry. You've produced 25% of the comments on this thread and said nothing meaningful. That's impressive, even for you."
- Anonymous

"After reading all your postings and daily weblog...I believe you have truly become the Phil Pepe of this generation. Now this is not necessarily a good thing."
- Repoz

"you blog sucks, it reeds as it was written by the queer son of mike lupica and roids clemens. i could write a better column by letting a monkey fuk a typewriter. i dont need no 181 million dollar team to write a blog fukkk the spankeees"
- yan

"i think his followers have a different sexual preference than most men"
- bob

"Boring and predictable."
- No Guru No Method

"Are you the biggest idiot ever?"
- Randal

"I'm not qualified to write for online media, let alone mainstream media."
- Larry Mahnken



This site is best viewed with a monitor.

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.


Wednesday, March 25, 2009

John Brattain Memorial Fund

The Hardball Times has set up a memorial fund for John Brattain’s family.  He left behind a wife and two teenage daughters.

Four years ago, I found from personal experience how generous the online community can be to its own in their hour of need.  I am now literally begging you to be even more generous than you were to me.






This post will remain on the top of the page until March 24, 2010.  Please donate whenever you can.

--Posted at 7:08 pm by Larry Mahnken / 3 Comments | - (88)




Friday, July 3, 2009

Blue Jays (42-38) @ Yankees (45-33), Friday, July 3, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**

Tor: B. Tallet (5-5, 4.47 ERA) NYY: A. Burnett (6-4, 3.93 ERA)

Lineups:
Toronto Blue Jays
M. Scutaro, SS (.279/.380/.414)
A. Hill, 2B (.301/.341/.504)
A. Lind, DH (.315/.389/.556)
S. Rolen, 3B (.333/.394/.494)
L. Overbay, 1B (.264/.386/.492)
V. Wells, CF (.248/.301/.388)
A. Rios, RF (.260/.319/.417)
D. Dellucci, LF (.275/.333/.350)
R. Chavez, C (.271/.271/.371)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.307/.381/.447)
J. Damon, LF (.288/.364/.533)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.274/.381/.559)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.235/.398/.506)
R. Cano, 2B (.307/.340/.489)
N. Swisher, RF (.240/.369/.492)
H. Matsui, DH (.254/.350/.488)
F. Cervelli, C (.257/.278/.329)
B. Gardner, CF (.289/.367/.421)

Whatever.

--Posted at 11:49 am by Jonathan / 164 Comments | - (1)




Thursday, July 2, 2009

Mariners (39-38) @ Yankees (45-32), Thursday, July 2, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

SEA: Jason Vargas (26, LHP, 3-3, 3.79) vs. NYY: C.C. Sabathia (28, LHP, 7-4, 3.55)

Lineups
Seattle Mariners
I. Suzuki, RF (.368/.400/.493)
R. Branyan, 1B (.298/.394/.596)
J. Lopez, 2B (.258/.288/.423)
M. Sweeney, DH (.263/.309/.404)
F. Gutierrez, CF (.278/.346/.409)
K. Johjima, C (.250/.272/.380)
R. Langerhans, LF - - -
C. Woodward, 3B (.333/.400/.333)
R. Cedeno, SS (.136/.212/.252)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.307/.383/.449)
J. Damon, LF (.292/.369/.541)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.278/.386/.567)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.239/.401/.515)
R. Cano, 2B (.300/.332/.481)
N. Swisher, RF (.238/.371/.494)
H. Matsui, DH (.248/.347/.466)
M. Cabrera, CF (.287/.346/.454)
F. Cervelli, C (.269/.290/.343)

Whatever.

--Posted at 4:27 pm by SG / 196 Comments | - (4)



Fangraphs.com: Another Look at HRs at the New Yankee Stadium

Dave Allen at Fangraphs posted an article a couple days ago that looks at how the new outfield dimensions at the Stadium affect home runs.  It seems that the general consensus now is that wind has little to do with the increase in long balls.  Allen concludes that since the biggest increase in home runs coincides with the largest change in outfield fence dimensions, it is the fence that is responsible.
I’m not totally sold since wind currents might still increase home runs to one part of the park.  Plus, without a full season of data, it is hard to make any conclusion just yet as to what is really responsible.
But it’s still an interesting study.  Plus, there are some fun graphs for you to gaze upon.

--Posted at 10:16 am by Jonathan / 23 Comments | - (5)




Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Yankees.com: A-Rod puts Yanks’ win streak at seven

NEW YORK—Like Mark Teixeira before him, Alex Rodriguez has gone from puzzlingly cold to exceptionally hot in a flash. And with him have gone the Yankees. In such a funk as they slogged through the Interleague portion of their schedule, the Yankees won their last two games in Atlanta and have been soaring since.

They are now winning games—and quite a lot of them—with both efficiency and precision. The latest example came on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium, when Andy Pettitte thrived, Rodriguez hit a towering home run and the Yankees won their seventh straight game, this one a 4-2 decision over the Mariners.

I love me a winning streak.

--Posted at 11:09 pm by SG / 49 Comments | - (7)



Mariners (39-37) @ Yankees (44-32), Wednesday, July 1, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

SEA: Jarrod Washburn (34, LHP, 4-5, 3.22) vs. NYY: Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 7-3, 4.38)

Lineups
Seattle Mariners
I. Suzuki, RF (.373/.405/.500)
R. Branyan, 1B (.303/.400/.606)
J. Lopez, 2B (.259/.288/.422)
K. Griffey Jr., DH (.213/.329/.401)
F. Gutierrez, CF (.274/.340/.406)
W. Balentien, LF (.230/.279/.370)
C. Woodward, 3B (.400/.471/.400)
R. Johnson, C (.183/.238/.292)
R. Cedeno, SS (.140/.218/.260)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.307/.381/.451)
J. Damon, LF (.291/.367/.532)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.275/.384/.568)
A. Rodriguez, DH (.233/.399/.497)
J. Posada, C (.275/.367/.513)
R. Cano, 2B (.300/.332/.482)
N. Swisher, RF (.237/.371/.496)
M. Cabrera, CF (.286/.346/.441)
C. Ransom, 3B (.200/.241/.345)

Whatever.

--Posted at 3:53 pm by SG / 152 Comments | - (8)



Yankees.com: Yanks make it six straight, pick up Bruney

NEW YORK—When Brian Bruney came off the disabled list, the plan was to immediately insert him back into the eighth-inning setup role. That was about two weeks ago, when there was nothing but doubt surrounding the Yankees’ bullpen situation. When the bridge to Mariano Rivera was teetering and in danger of crumbling, the Yankees took comfort in knowing Bruney would soon be back.

Then, suddenly, the bullpen without Bruney righted itself. Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson demonstrated they could pitch key innings. Phil Hughes went from being a struggling starter to a seemingly unhittable reliever. It wasn’t that they didn’t need Bruney. Instead, he would fit in as just another cog in a sturdy machine.

It hasn’t been quite that easy. Bruney has struggled of late in the eighth and has not slid back into the bullpen the way the Yankees hoped. True, they won on Tuesday, beating the Mariners, 8-5, in front of 46,181 at Yankee Stadium for their sixth straight victory. But in many ways the contest raised more questions than it answered.

PHil Hughes should pitch the eighth…

Bruney’s struggles were the major negative in last night’s win.  I didn’t get to watch the game as I was on the road, but I listened and it sounded like Joba wasn’t great, but serviceable.  It sounded like Phil Coke and Hughes were great, and then Bruney just stunk.  Of course, John Sterling’s too busy telling us that you can’t predict baseball to give much in the way of details about how the game is actually unfolding, although I digress.

Anyway, the Yankees win coupled with the Red Sox blowing a 10-1 seventh inning lead made for a fun night in the AL East, with the Yankees moving within two games in the loss column of the AL East lead.

--Posted at 7:23 am by SG / 155 Comments | - (12)




Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Mariners (39-36) @ Yankees (43-32), Tuesday, June 30, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

SEA: Brandon Morrow (24, RHP, 0-3, 5.64) vs. NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 4-2, 3.81)

Lineups
Seattle Mariners
I. Suzuki, RF (.372/.402/.500)
R. Branyan, 1B (.303/.400/.609)
J. Lopez, 2B (.263/.290/.429)
K. Griffey Jr., LF (.218/.332/.409)
M. Sweeney, DH (.275/.322/.422)
F. Gutierrez, CF (.266/.335/.402)
C. Woodward, 3B (.364/.462/.364)
K. Johjima, C (.229/.253/.354)
R. Cedeno, SS (.133/.213/.224)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.309/.384/.455)
J. Damon, LF (.288/.364/.526)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.276/.387/.575)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.232/.399/.484)
R. Cano, 2B (.297/.330/.482)
J. Posada, C (.272/.359/.513)
H. Matsui, DH (.246/.345/.463)
N. Swisher, RF (.237/.373/.500)
M. Cabrera, CF (.286/.348/.438)

Whatever.

--Posted at 5:18 pm by SG / 360 Comments | - (17)



LA Times: Yankees acquire Eric Hinske from Pirates for 2 minor leaguers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Eric Hinske has been acquired by the New York Yankees from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a pair of minor leaguers.
Pittsburgh will receive right-hander Casey Erickson and outfielder Eric Fryer for the utilityman. In addition, the Pirates will give the Yankees cash.


Entering 2009, here were Hinske's offensive projections as a Pirate:
eric hinske PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA
2009 chone projection 126 111 17 27 5 0 5 15 2 1 14 28 1 .242 .333 .420 16 82 19 .320
2009 marcel projection 126 111 16 27 6 1 5 15 2 1 14 27 1 .244 .331 .435 16 84 22 .322
2009 pecota projection 126 110 16 27 6 0 5 17 3 1 14 30 1 .245 .332 .435 16 85 22 .322
2009 tht projection 126 111 16 28 6 1 5 16 2 1 15 27 1 .251 .343 .449 17 89 27 .332
2009 zips projection 126 111 16 26 6 0 5 13 2 1 14 28 1 .234 .328 .430 16 82 20 .319
2009 cairo projection 126 111 16 27 6 0 5 16 2 1 14 28 1 .240 .332 .440 17 85 23 .324
2009 average projection 126 111 16 27 6 0 5 15 2 1 14 28 1 .243 .333 .435 16 85 22 .323
2009 actuals 126 106 18 27 9 0 1 11 0 0 17 27 3 .255 .373 .368 16 81 4 .330


And his defensive projections in ZR and UZR:

Player ZR Pos GP GS Inn PO A E DP PM CH ZR Diff RS RS/162
eric hinske 1B 54 45 408 398 30 3 40 66 77 .856 0 0 0
Tm 3B 33 26 246 17 52 3 5 55 69 .796 1 1 6
PIT LF 49 38 323 67 2 1 0 65 76 .858 0 0 0
League RF 59 52 424 96 3 1 1 94 111 .849 -3 -2 -8
NL Pos G GS Inn PO A E DP DG exO RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150
Age UZR 1B 53 46 440 427 33 4 43 52 55 0 -1 0 0
31 3B 31 25 261 18 55 3 5 28 54 1 0 1 5
LF 47 39 350 72 2 1 0 39 72 1 0 1 4
RF 54 49 425 98 3 1 1 49 97 1 0 1 3
Combined Pos G GS Inn PO A E DP RS RS/162
1B 54 46 424 413 32 4 41 0 0
3B 32 26 254 18 53 3 5 1 6
LF 48 39 337 70 2 1 0 0 2
RF 56 50 425 97 3 1 1 -1 -2


We don't have a ton of sample size for those defensive projections, so take them with a grain of salt. It's probably reasonable to say that Hinske can play four positions competently though, 1B/3B and the OF corners.

If we project Hinske going forward, moving him to the Yankees and using his YTD performance to revise his projection, here's what that looks like:

Revised projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR wOBA
2009 chone projection 272 236 38 58 14 0 7 29 3 1 33 60 3 .246 .345 .405 34 82 8 .323
2009 marcel projection 272 237 36 58 15 1 8 30 3 1 31 59 4 .247 .344 .416 35 83 9 .324
2009 pecota projection 272 236 36 58 15 1 8 33 4 1 32 63 3 .248 .344 .416 35 84 9 .324
2009 tht projection 272 236 36 59 15 1 8 32 3 1 33 58 3 .252 .352 .425 36 87 10 .332
2009 zips projection 272 236 36 57 15 1 8 27 3 1 32 60 4 .240 .341 .412 34 82 8 .322
2009 cairo projection 272 236 36 58 15 1 8 31 3 1 32 60 4 .244 .344 .419 35 84 9 .326
2009 average projection 272 236 36 58 15 1 8 30 3 1 32 60 4 .246 .345 .415 35 84 9 .325


League average wOBA is around 0.332, so Hinske projects as essentially average offensively going forward (over 300 PA the difference between a .332 wOBA and a .325 wOBA is less than 2 runs), and with the ability to spot the four corners. Here are Casey Erickson's and Eric Fryer's minor league stats. I don't think either is a huge prospect by any means..

Hinske can replace Xavier Nady, who looks to be done for the year, and can spell Alex Rodriguez once a week or so while likely hitting/fielding better than Cody Ransom. The difference between Hinske and Ransom going forward over 200 PAs is around 9 runs offensively, so this could be a nice cheap pickup of a win. Hinske also gives the Yankees a little more OF depth and roster flexibility, since I'd assume this means Ransom becomes the primary backup MI, and Ramiro Pena goes to AAA to get full-time PT, although they could just cut Ransom and keep Pena. So they get a a little more OF depth without wasting another roster spot as well.

Tough to see any downside with this acquisition. Thumbs up from me.
--Posted at 10:59 am by SG / 81 Comments | - (16)




Monday, June 29, 2009

Yankee Zone Rating and Pitching Bar Graphs through Games of June 28, 2009 (UZR added upon request)

CH: Playable Chances as defined by Stats Inc’s Zone Rating
PM: Plays Made
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender

K/BF: Strikeouts divided by total batters faced
BB/BF: Walks allowed divided by total batters faced
HR/BF: Homers allowed divided by total batters faced

By request, here’s the team UZRs from FanGraphs.

exO (expected outs): The number of outs plus reached base errors that would be made by an average fielder given the distribution of balls in play while that fielder was on the field.

ARM (outfield arm runs): Outfielder’s get credit (plus or minus) depending on what the runners do on a hit or a fly ball out. A runner can stay put, advance, or get thrown out. A fielder will get credit not only if he throws out more than his share of runners, but also if he keeps more than his share of runners from advancing extra bases.

DPR (double play runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.

UZR, RngR, and ErrR are pro-rated to Yankees’ expected outs.

--Posted at 10:24 pm by SG / 41 Comments | - (18)



Yankees.com: Rivera notches 500th save

NEW YORK -- Mariano Rivera became just the second member of baseball's prestigious 500-save club on Sunday, getting four outs to preserve a 4-2 Yankees victory in a sweep of the Mets at Citi Field.

Rivera was summoned in the eighth inning after Chien-Ming Wang went 5 1/3 innings and the bullpen brought the Yankees close to a series sweep of their cross-town rivals.

He answered the call, striking out Omir Santos looking to strand two Mets aboard in the eighth -- and working a bases-loaded, full-count walk in the ninth against fellow closer Francisco Rodriguez -- before setting down the side in the ninth, locking down his 18th save in 19 opportunities this season to reach the round "500" number.
Mo didn't just pick up save #500, he's now OBP-ing .500 as well.

Reader Ryan asked if Mo recorded his first RBI at the oldest age ever. A quick check of the Lahman database shows that he did. A more thorough check of the Lahman database shows that he did not. Here is a list of the 20 players who were the oldest when they recorded the first RBI of their careers.

Player Year Age
Satchel Paige 1952 46
Fred Johnson 1938 44
Diomedes Olivo 1962 43
Orlando Hernandez 2006 41
Chuck Hostetler 1944 41
David Wells 2004 41
Joe Berry 1944 40
Roger Clemens 2002 40
Chuck Finley 2002 40
Ed Green 1890 40
Frank Tanana 1993 40
Mariano Rivera 2009 39
Lou Koupal 1937 39
Connie Marrero 1950 39
Alex McColl 1933 39
Bill McGhee 1944 39
Bill Morrell 1931 38
Chi-Chi Olivo 1966 38
Steve Reed 2003 38
Lee Riley 1944 38
Bob Thurman 1955 38
Paul Abbott 2004 37
Buzz Clarkson 1952 37
Minnie Mendoza 1970 37


We are lucky to have Mo playing for our favorite team.

Chien-Ming Wang wasn't great, but he was decent and he appears to be getting stronger with each outing. He's finally picked up his elusive first win of the year, working up to 85 pitches and recording 11 of his BIP outs via grounder. His season line is going to suck regardless of how he does from here on out, but I think he's shown enough to remain in the rotation for now. Over his last seven outings including tonight (two relief appearances and five starts), he's got an ERA of 5.21 but a FIP of 4.07. Here are his batted ball splits as well:

Dates GB% FB% LD%
Apr 8 - May 22 30% 46% 24%
May 27 - Jun 28 56% 32% 12%


While I wouldn't say he's back just yet, I'd say he's heading in the right direction.
--Posted at 12:13 am by SG / 78 Comments | - (19)




Sunday, June 28, 2009

Yankees (42-32) @ Mets (37-36), Sunday, June 28, 2009, 8:05pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Chien-Ming Wang (29, RHP, 0-6, 11.20) vs. NYM: Livan Hernandez (34, RHP, 5-2, 4.05)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.308/.377/.451)
N. Swisher, RF (.239/.373/.504)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.277/.387/.576)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.227/.387/.481)
R. Cano, 2B (.301/.334/.488)
J. Posada, C (.271/.361/.516)
M. Cabrera, LF (.291/.354/.447)
B. Gardner, CF (.293/.364/.427)
C. Wang, P (.000/.000/.000)

New York Mets
D. Murphy, 1B (.248/.316/.366)
A. Cora, SS (.257/.354/.324)
D. Wright, 3B (.346/.434/.493)
G. Sheffield, LF (.273/.387/.497)
F. Tatis, RF (.257/.325/.364)
F. Martinez, CF (.164/.247/.233)
B. Schneider, C (.237/.319/.424)
L. Castillo, 2B (.278/.373/.330)
L. Hernandez, P (.120/.120/.120)

Whatever.

--Posted at 5:46 pm by SG / 432 Comments | - (28)



Offense Pie Charts Through Games of June 27, 2009

BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted)
Outs: Duh.

--Posted at 8:43 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (14)




Saturday, June 27, 2009

Yankees.com: Burnett’s gem all Yanks need in Queens

NEW YORK—A.J. Burnett took a no-hitter into the sixth inning and allowed just one hit in seven dominant frames, striking out a season-high 10 batters as the Yankees defeated the Mets, 5-0, on Saturday at Citi Field.

Jorge Posada hit a three-run homer to supplement Nick Swisher’s earlier solo shot, toppling starter Tim Redding as the Yankees defeated their crosstown rivals for the fourth time in five contests this season.

Beating the Mets is always enjoyable.  Burnett lowered his ERA on the season to 3.93 in this game, That happens to be the exact ERA of his average projection entering 2009.  His peripherals are still not quite as good as his ERA, but he’s been pretty good in June, throwing, 30 innings of 2.10 ERA, with 35 Ks, 16 BB, and 3 HRs. allowed.

Now we cross our fingers and hope the Wang comes up big tomorrow.

--Posted at 9:12 pm by SG / 21 Comments | - (15)



Yankees (41-32) @ Mets (37-35), Saturday, June 27, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: A.J. Burnett (32, RHP, 5-4, 4.24) vs. NYM: Tim Redding (31, RHP, 1-2, 6.08)

Lineups
New York Yankees
B. Gardner, CF (.303/.374/.441)
N. Swisher, RF (.238/.369/.493)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.276/.384/.575)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.227/.389/.487)
R. Cano, 2B (.302/.335/.488)
J. Posada, C (.272/.364/.503)
M. Cabrera, LF (.287/.351/.446)
R. Pena, SS (.268/.310/.341)
A. Burnett, P (.500?.500/.500)

New York Mets
A. Cora, SS (.258/.357/.326)
A. Reyes, 2B (.500/.500/.500)
D. Wright, 3B (.351/.439/.500)
R. Church, RF (.273/.333/.380)
G. Sheffield, LF (.277/.388/.503)
D. Murphy, 1B (.251/.320/.372)
J. Reed, CF (.293/.321/.360)
B. Schneider, C (.246/.318/.439)
T. Redding, P (.111/.111/.111)

Whatever.

--Posted at 4:35 pm by SG / 154 Comments | - (15)



Brett Gardner: Better Than League Average?

Player Tm Lg Pos PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB K SB BA OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR BRAR/650
Brett Gardner NYA AL CF 176 152 28 46 4 4 3 17 21 16 .303 .374 .441 26 97 9 34
Average AL CF 176 156 23 41 7 1 4 15 31 7 .261 .329 .407 21 79 4 16
Replacement AL CF 176 161 20 37 7 1 4 14 34 6 .228 .293 .356 17 62 0 0


BR: Batting runs as calculated by linear weights
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: Postion-adjusted batting runs above replacement
BRAR/650: BRAR pro-rated to 650 PA

In the interest of full disclosure, Gardner's performance over 170 PAs is still within range of his less than impressive projections entering 2009.

Player -2 SD -1 SD wOBA +1 SD +2 SD
Brett Gardner .208 .274 .340 .405 .471
Average .176 .243 .310 .377 .444
Replacement .142 .210 .278 .347 .415


wOBA does not factor in baserunning. Gardner's 16 steals and 2 times caught are equal to around three runs.

Most encouraging to me is that Gardner's strikeout rate is much lower than projected. Gardner was projected to strike out in about 20% of his PAs based on his MLEs. He's striking out 12% of the time. He was projected to walk in about 10.5% of his PAs, and he's walking in 9.7% of them, so his BB rate hasn't suffered all that much from any change in approach he may have made to cut down on his Ks.

Like most statheads, I harp on sample size. 170 PAs are not enough to definitively say Gardner's going to be a starting caliber MLB CF. Still, part of the concerns about Gardner's game translating to the majors were based on his supposed physical limitations, particularly in the area of power, and his high strikeout rate. So far this season, we are seeing at least some evidence that those concerns may have been overblown and Gardner's game may be able to play at the major league level, so let's enjoy it while it lasts.
--Posted at 4:55 am by SG / 49 Comments | - (21)




Friday, June 26, 2009

Yankees.com: CC’s Yanks take what Mets give them

NEW YORK—The Yankees held their breath regarding the state of CC Sabathia’s tight left biceps, with manager Joe Girardi hoping no bad news would trickle back from the bullpen during pregame warmups.

He needn’t have worried. Sabathia came out just fine, retiring the first 12 batters he faced and even contributing a run-scoring single as the Yankees defeated the Mets, 9-1, on Friday in the first Subway Series game played at Citi Field.

Alex Rodriguez homered for the second successive game, belting a two-run shot off Elmer Dessens in the eighth inning—the 564th of his Major League career, moving him past Reggie Jackson for sole possession of 11th place on baseball’s all-time list.

Now what will Buster Olney write about?

Burnett should be able to out-pitch Tim Redding tomorrow.  Hopefully the Yankees can knock him out of the game early so we won’t have to look at that furry animal attached to his chin.

--Posted at 11:00 pm by Jonathan / 9 Comments | - (12)



Yankees (40-32) @ Mets (37-34), Friday, June 26, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: C.C. Sabathia (28, LHP, 6-4, 3.71) vs. NYM: Mike Pelfrey (25, RHP, 5-2, 4.74)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.308/.377/.451)
J. Damon, LF (.293/.370/.534)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.280/.385/.583)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.223/.378/.466)
R. Cano, 2B (.301/.336/.488)
M. Cabrera, RF (.286/.345/.447)
B. Gardner, CF (.281/.358/.390)
F. Cervelli, C (.290/.313/.371)
C.C. Sabathia, P (---/---/---)

New York Mets
L. Castillo, 2B (.284/.380/.337)
A. Cora, SS (.266/.367/.336)
D. Wright, 3B (.356/.445/.508)
G. Sheffield, LF (.276/.389/.487)
F. Tatis, RF (.255/.325/.365)
R. Church, CF (.277/.338/.386)
N. Evans, 1B (.429/.429/1.429)
O. Santos, C (.283/.307/.449)
M. Pelfrey, P (.217/.238/.455)

Whatever.

--Posted at 4:19 pm by SG / 151 Comments | - (16)



AL wOBA For Hitters and Pitchers Through Games of June 25, 2009

I was thinking of ways to compare pitcher and hitter value more directly and thought that it might be interesting to put them on the same scale. We often hear from people spouting conventional wisdom that a starting pitcher isn't worth as much as a position player because "they only pitch once every five days." However, if you look at their impact on a batter by batter basis, a top starting pitcher may impact 1000 plate appearances in any single season, compared to 700 at most by a hitter.

So what I did was take the batting stats against every pitcher in the AL, and calculate the wOBA against them. Then I subtracted that wOBA from the league average wOBA and got a difference. That then gets added to the league average wOBA to get basically an inverse wOBA against, which should scale to what a hitter's wOBA is. From there, you can calculate runs above average using (wOBA - lgwOBA) divided by 1.15 times either PA or BF, or runs above replacement using the same formulat but substituting something like n times lgwOBA to adjust for replacement level.

Here's how the AL looks for hitters and pitchers doing this for players with at least 100 PAs or batters faced. I'm using 'n' = 0.92 to convert lgwOBA to replacement level (.8 times 1.15). Bear in mind there are no position-adjustments here.

Player Tm Lg Pos PA wOBA RAA RAR
Greinke, Zack Z KC AL SP 429 .399 26 36
Mauer, Joe MIN AL C 217 .485 29 34
Jackson, Edwin DET AL SP 401 .390 21 31
Halladay, Roy TOR AL SP 404 .389 21 30
Martinez, Victor CLE AL 1B 323 .409 21 28
Youkilis, Kevin E BOS AL 1B 250 .437 22 28
Bay, Jason BOS AL LF 311 .411 21 28
Teixeira, Mark NYA AL 1B 312 .409 20 28
Morneau, Justin MIN AL 1B 323 .405 20 28
Weaver, Jered D LAA AL SP 386 .384 19 27
Longoria, Evan TB AL 3B 295 .414 20 27
Zobrist, Ben T TB AL RF 238 .437 21 27
Branyan, Russell SEA AL 1B 268 .422 20 27
Hernandez, Felix A SEA AL SP 425 .375 17 27
Sabathia, CC NYA AL SP 417 .376 17 27
Cabrera, Miguel DET AL 1B 288 .413 20 27
Lind, Adam A TOR AL DH 316 .402 19 26
Hunter, Torii LAA AL CF 274 .411 18 25
Verlander, Justin B DET AL SP 400 .372 15 24
Pena, Carlos TB AL 1B 315 .393 16 24
Garza, Matt TB AL SP 399 .367 13 22
Suzuki, Ichiro SEA AL RF 298 .393 15 22
Lee, Cliff CLE AL SP 469 .356 11 22
Beckett, Josh BOS AL SP 385 .366 12 21
Washburn, Jarrod SEA AL SP 370 .368 13 21
Choo, Shin-Soo CLE AL RF 319 .382 13 21
Bartlett, Jason A TB AL SS 216 .418 16 21
Damon, Johnny NYA AL LF 301 .386 14 21
Kubel, Jason J MIN AL DH 252 .394 13 19
Bailey, Andrew S OAK AL RP 180 .421 14 18
Blackburn, Nick N MIN AL SP 422 .353 9 18
Millwood, Kevin TEX AL SP 441 .350 8 18
Braden, Dallas L OAK AL SP 396 .356 9 18
Buehrle, Mark CHA AL SP 377 .358 10 18
Kinsler, Ian M TEX AL 2B 328 .371 11 18
Inge, Brandon DET AL 3B 287 .379 11 18
Overbay, Lyle TOR AL 1B 225 .398 12 18
Tallet, Brian TOR AL SP 377 .356 9 18
Floyd, Gavin C CHA AL SP 409 .351 8 17
Scutaro, Marco TOR AL SS 353 .364 9 17
Rolen, Scott TOR AL 3B 264 .383 11 17
Outman, Josh OAK AL SP 276 .374 11 17
Young, Michael TEX AL 3B 305 .371 10 17
Bedard, Erik SEA AL SP 271 .375 11 17
Cuddyer, Michael MIN AL RF 279 .376 10 17
Hill, Aaron W TOR AL 2B 344 .362 8 16
Drew, J.D. BOS AL RF 254 .382 11 16
Dye, Jermaine CHA AL RF 259 .379 10 16
Scott, Luke B BAL AL DH 207 .397 11 16
Jeter, Derek NYA AL SS 319 .365 9 16
Jones, Adam L BAL AL CF 287 .371 9 16
Figgins, Chone LAA AL 3B 314 .365 8 16
Saunders, Joe LAA AL SP 412 .346 6 16
Swisher, Nick T NYA AL RF 281 .370 9 15
Crawford, Carl TB AL LF 324 .362 8 15
Markakis, Nick BAL AL RF 319 .360 7 14
Abreu, Bobby LAA AL RF 276 .367 8 14
Richmond, Scott TOR AL SP 320 .354 7 14
Cormier, Lance R TB AL RP 179 .395 10 14
Thome, Jim CHA AL DH 219 .382 9 14
Bannister, Brian P KC AL SP 334 .352 7 14
Feldman, Scott TEX AL SP 315 .354 7 14
Roberts, Brian BAL AL 2B 328 .355 6 14
Cruz, Nelson R TEX AL RF 284 .363 7 14
Shields, James A TB AL SP 420 .339 4 13
Meche, Gil KC AL SP 380 .342 4 13
Aardsma, David SEA AL RP 140 .410 10 13
Rivera, Juan LAA AL LF 251 .367 7 13
Nathan, Joe MIN AL RP 107 .442 11 13
Konerko, Paul CHA AL 1B 283 .360 6 13
Granderson, Curtis DET AL CF 322 .353 5 13
Howell, J.P. TB AL RP 143 .403 9 12
Downs, Scott TOR AL RP 108 .435 10 12
Cano, Robinson NYA AL 2B 307 .354 5 12
Wuertz, Mike OAK AL RP 129 .411 9 12
Baker, Scott S MIN AL SP 353 .342 4 12
Mazzaro, Vince M OAK AL SP 126 .412 9 12
Danks, John W CHA AL SP 346 .342 4 12
Holliday, Matt T OAK AL LF 300 .353 5 12
Ramirez, Ramon BOS AL RP 128 .409 9 12
White, Sean A SEA AL RP 149 .393 8 12
Bergesen, Bradley S BAL AL SP 322 .345 4 12
Guerrier, Matt O MIN AL RP 129 .400 8 11
Carrasco, D.J. CHA AL RP 201 .364 6 11
Hafner, Travis CLE AL DH 111 .419 8 11
DeRosa, Mark CLE AL 3B 310 .347 3 11
Napoli, Mike A LAA AL C 195 .370 6 11
Rodriguez, Alex NYA AL 3B 185 .373 6 11
Wakefield, Tim BOS AL SP 390 .333 1 10
Okajima, Hideki BOS AL RP 129 .392 7 10
Posada, Jorge NYA AL C 176 .373 6 10
Lester, Jon T BOS AL SP 392 .332 1 10
Morales, Kendry LAA AL 1B 268 .350 4 10
Matsui, Hideki NYA AL DH 232 .356 4 10
Baez, Danys BAL AL RP 154 .376 6 10
Padilla, Vicente TEX AL SP 344 .335 2 10
Callaspo, Alberto KC AL 2B 262 .350 4 10
Aybar, Willy TB AL 2B 160 .376 6 10
Kennedy, Adam OAK AL 2B 193 .363 5 9
Uehara, Koji BAL AL SP 279 .341 3 9
Span, Denard D MIN AL LF 269 .347 3 9
Pedroia, Dustin L BOS AL 2B 321 .340 2 9
Aceves, Alfredo NYA AL RP 132 .382 6 9
Teahen, Mark T KC AL 3B 276 .345 3 9
Palmer, Matt LAA AL SP 264 .342 3 9
Coke, Phil NYA AL RP 126 .381 6 9
Jones, Andruw TEX AL DH 151 .373 5 9
Cabrera, Asdrubal J CLE AL 2B 231 .350 3 8
Johnson, Jim BAL AL RP 147 .368 5 8
Porcello, Rick A DET AL SP 330 .331 1 8
Thornton, Matt J CHA AL RP 114 .384 6 8
Lowell, Mike BOS AL 3B 281 .340 2 8
Masterson, Justin BOS AL RP 253 .339 2 8
Butler, Billy R KC AL 1B 277 .340 1 8
Gross, Gabe J TB AL RF 152 .366 4 8
Vargas, Jason M SEA AL SP 207 .346 3 8
Rivera, Mariano NYA AL RP 118 .377 5 8
Cahill, Trevor OAK AL SP 364 .327 -1 8
Huff, Aubrey BAL AL 1B 294 .337 1 8
Dickey, R.A. MIN AL RP 177 .352 4 8
Reimold, Nolan BAL AL LF 130 .374 5 8
Sherrill, George F BAL AL RP 116 .377 5 8
Varitek, Jason BOS AL C 221 .346 2 7
Papelbon, Jonathan R BOS AL RP 137 .364 4 7
Jakubauskas, Chris SEA AL RP 249 .335 1 7
Lyon, Brandon DET AL RP 152 .356 4 7
Ellsbury, Jacoby BOS AL CF 303 .334 0 7
Perkins, Glen W MIN AL SP 255 .333 1 7
Cabrera, Melky NYA AL CF 223 .341 1 7
Contreras, Jose CHA AL SP 228 .335 1 6
Iwamura, Akinori TB AL 2B 176 .348 2 6
Rios, Alex I TOR AL RF 332 .328 -2 6
Chamberlain, Joba L NYA AL SP 330 .324 -1 6
Rodney, Fernando DET AL RP 130 .356 3 6
Jenks, Bobby CHA AL RP 112 .364 3 6
Lowe, Mark SEA AL RP 153 .346 2 6
Balfour, Grant TB AL RP 148 .347 2 6
Pierzynski, A.J. CHA AL C 230 .335 0 6
Speier, Justin LAA AL RP 117 .356 3 5
Blalock, Hank TEX AL DH 220 .335 0 5
Burnett, A.J. NYA AL SP 378 .319 -3 5
Guillen, Jose KC AL RF 232 .333 0 5
Batista, Miguel SEA AL RP 165 .339 1 5
Delcarmen, Manny BOS AL RP 128 .349 2 5
Green, Nick BOS AL SS 184 .339 1 5
Podsednik, Scott CHA AL LF 216 .334 0 5
Kapler, Gabe TB AL RF 113 .356 2 5
Gonzalez, Edgar OAK AL RP 105 .355 2 5
Crede, Joe MIN AL 3B 225 .332 0 5
Swarzak, Anthony MIN AL SP 119 .349 2 5
Giambi, Jason OAK AL 1B 273 .327 -2 5
Hochevar, Luke KC AL SP 164 .335 1 5
Griffey Jr., Ken SEA AL DH 221 .331 -1 5
Niemann, Jeff TB AL SP 315 .319 -3 5
Carlson, Jesse C TOR AL RP 155 .336 1 4
Laffey, Aaron S CLE AL RP 145 .338 1 4
Wilson, C.J. TEX AL RP 131 .341 1 4
Quentin, Carlos J CHA AL LF 151 .340 1 4
Saito, Takashi BOS AL RP 115 .345 2 4
Byrd, Marlon TEX AL CF 244 .327 -1 4
Dotel, Octavio CHA AL RP 132 .339 1 4
Garko, Ryan F CLE AL 1B 184 .333 0 4
Harris, Brendan MIN AL SS 232 .328 -1 4
Bautista, Jose A TOR AL LF 141 .340 1 4
Slowey, Kevin MIN AL SP 362 .315 -5 4
Jennings, Jason TEX AL RP 172 .328 0 4
Bulger, Jason P LAA AL RP 128 .336 1 4
Lugo, Julio BOS AL SS 104 .348 1 4
Olson, Garrett SEA AL RP 183 .325 -1 4
Fuentes, Brian LAA AL RP 106 .342 1 4
Betancourt, Rafael CLE AL RP 114 .339 1 4
Oliver, Darren LAA AL RP 131 .334 1 4
Carroll, Jamey CLE AL 2B 130 .338 0 3
McCarthy, Brandon P TEX AL SP 281 .316 -3 3
Cust, Jack OAK AL DH 281 .321 -3 3
Hughes, Phil NYA AL RP 197 .321 -1 3
Pettitte, Andy NYA AL SP 403 .311 -6 3
Arredondo, Jose J LAA AL RP 110 .335 1 3
Murphy, David M TEX AL LF 182 .326 -1 3
Olivo, Miguel KC AL C 178 .326 -1 3
League, Brandon P TOR AL RP 140 .326 0 3
Camp, Shawn A TOR AL RP 139 .326 0 3
Sizemore, Grady CLE AL CF 245 .320 -3 3
Ray, Robert A TOR AL SP 101 .333 0 3
Gardner, Brett NYA AL CF 170 .325 -1 3
Jacobs, Mike KC AL DH 246 .320 -3 3
Santiago, Ramon DET AL SS 127 .331 0 3
Ordonez, Magglio DET AL RF 253 .319 -3 3
Albers, Matt J BAL AL RP 127 .326 0 3
Suzuki, Kurt K OAK AL C 266 .318 -4 2
Cruz, Juan KC AL RP 122 .326 0 2
Perry, Ryan DET AL RP 124 .325 0 2
Romero, Ricky TOR AL SP 243 .313 -3 2
Ziegler, Brad G OAK AL RP 140 .321 -1 2
Zumaya, Joel M DET AL RP 110 .325 0 2
Miner, Zach C DET AL RP 198 .314 -3 2
Peralta, Jhonny CLE AL SS 277 .315 -5 2
Sweeney, Mike SEA AL DH 118 .325 -1 2
Linebrink, Scott CHA AL RP 122 .318 -1 2
Casilla, Santiago OAK AL RP 111 .318 -1 1
Nelson, Joe TB AL RP 139 .314 -2 1
Crisp, Coco KC AL CF 215 .315 -4 1
Thomas, Clete DET AL RF 127 .319 -2 1
Wells, Vernon TOR AL CF 332 .312 -6 1
Hill, Rich BAL AL SP 168 .311 -3 1
Burrell, Pat TB AL DH 161 .316 -3 1
Shoppach, Kelly B CLE AL C 170 .315 -3 1
Berken, Jason T BAL AL SP 144 .311 -2 1
Hamilton, Josh H TEX AL CF 138 .316 -2 1
Gutierrez, Franklin R SEA AL CF 250 .312 -5 1
Zaun, Gregg BAL AL C 156 .314 -3 1
Bass, Brian M BAL AL RP 198 .307 -4 1
Millar, Kevin TOR AL 1B 148 .313 -3 1
Guthrie, Jeremy BAL AL SP 379 .305 -8 1
Veras, Jose NYA AL RP 118 .307 -2 0
Davies, Kyle K KC AL SP 348 .304 -8 0
Price, David T TB AL SP 142 .305 -3 0
Richard, Clayton C CHA AL RP 278 .304 -6 0
Barajas, Rod TOR AL C 232 .308 -5 0
Ramirez, Alexei CHA AL SS 284 .308 -6 0
Robertson, Nate DET AL RP 102 .302 -2 0
Huff, David G CLE AL SP 181 .302 -4 0
Morrow, Brandon J SEA AL RP 143 .302 -3 0
Izturis, Maicer E LAA AL 2B 166 .306 -4 0
Sowers, Jeremy B CLE AL SP 179 .301 -4 0
Upton, B.J. TB AL CF 311 .306 -8 0
Maier, Mitch W KC AL CF 114 .304 -3 0
Wigginton, Ty BAL AL 3B 191 .305 -5 0
Pavano, Carl CLE AL SP 372 .301 -9 0
Polanco, Placido DET AL 2B 285 .305 -7 0
Reyes, Anthony L CLE AL SP 176 .299 -5 0
Ortiz, David BOS AL DH 275 .305 -7 -1
Bloomquist, Willie KC AL SS 182 .304 -5 -1
Buscher, Brian MIN AL 3B 106 .301 -3 -1
Wright, Jamey KC AL RP 145 .297 -4 -1
Ayala, Luis MIN AL RP 138 .297 -4 -1
Penny, Brad BOS AL SP 346 .300 -9 -1
DeJesus, David KC AL LF 283 .303 -8 -1
Valbuena, Luis A CLE AL 2B 130 .298 -4 -1
Mora, Melvin BAL AL 3B 214 .301 -6 -1
Snider, Travis J TOR AL LF 108 .295 -4 -1
Colon, Bartolo CHA AL SP 249 .297 -7 -1
Andrus, Elvis TEX AL SS 214 .300 -6 -1
Wood, Kerry CLE AL RP 113 .289 -4 -1
Guerrero, Vladimir LAA AL DH 143 .296 -5 -1
Lewis, Jensen D CLE AL RP 164 .292 -5 -2
Ramirez, Horacio KC AL RP 104 .285 -4 -2
Holland, Derek TEX AL RP 191 .293 -6 -2
Anderson, Brian N CHA AL CF 175 .297 -6 -2
Davis, Chris TEX AL 1B 248 .300 -7 -2
Ponson, Sidney KC AL RP 202 .292 -6 -2
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod S TEX AL C 209 .297 -7 -2
Davis, Rajai OAK AL CF 110 .287 -4 -2
Balentien, Wladimir R SEA AL LF 143 .291 -5 -2
Loux, Shane LAA AL SP 174 .289 -6 -2
Chavez, Endy SEA AL LF 182 .294 -6 -2
Liriano, Francisco MIN AL SP 371 .296 -11 -2
Aybar, Erick J LAA AL SS 211 .295 -7 -2
Fields, Josh CHA AL 3B 227 .296 -8 -2
Lackey, John LAA AL SP 211 .290 -7 -2
Beltre, Adrian SEA AL 3B 300 .298 -9 -2
Pie, Felix BAL AL LF 110 .280 -5 -3
Laird, Gerald DET AL C 218 .293 -8 -3
Everett, Adam DET AL SS 185 .290 -7 -3
Anderson, Brett F OAK AL SP 307 .292 -10 -3
Francisco, Ben B CLE AL LF 260 .294 -9 -3
Purcey, David K TOR AL SP 120 .273 -6 -3
Springer, Russ OAK AL RP 124 .274 -6 -3
Willis, Dontrelle DET AL SP 160 .280 -7 -3
Sweeney, Ryan J OAK AL CF 233 .289 -9 -4
Anderson, Josh DET AL LF 141 .275 -7 -4
Mahay, Ron KC AL RP 116 .262 -7 -4
Lopez, Jose C SEA AL 2B 267 .289 -10 -4
Hendrickson, Mark BAL AL RP 215 .278 -9 -4
Izturis, Cesar BAL AL SS 159 .274 -8 -5
Getz, Chris CHA AL 2B 216 .283 -10 -5
Andino, Robert L BAL AL SS 110 .259 -7 -5
Carmona, Fausto C CLE AL SP 291 .284 -11 -5
Kendrick, Howie LAA AL 2B 201 .279 -10 -5
Matthews Jr., Gary LAA AL RF 151 .269 -9 -5
Gomez, Carlos A MIN AL CF 177 .274 -9 -5
Mathis, Jeff LAA AL C 122 .258 -8 -5
Hannahan, Jack OAK AL 3B 129 .260 -8 -5
Sonnanstine, Andy TB AL SP 362 .286 -14 -5
Crosby, Bobby OAK AL 1B 173 .271 -9 -5
Harrison, Matt TEX AL SP 283 .279 -12 -6
Silva, Carlos SEA AL SP 132 .251 -9 -6
Eveland, Dana J OAK AL SP 127 .249 -9 -6
Guillen, Carlos DET AL LF 101 .238 -8 -6
Young, Delmon D MIN AL LF 180 .264 -11 -7
Cecil, Brett TOR AL SP 151 .251 -10 -7
Santana, Ervin R LAA AL SP 150 .251 -10 -7
Perez, Rafael E CLE AL RP 109 .230 -9 -7
Janssen, Casey C TOR AL SP 123 .236 -10 -7
Punto, Nick MIN AL SS 180 .261 -11 -7
Kazmir, Scott E TB AL SP 224 .264 -13 -7
Johnson, Rob SEA AL C 128 .240 -10 -8
Benson, Kris TEX AL RP 114 .225 -10 -8
Tolbert, Matt MIN AL 2B 129 .232 -11 -8
Galarraga, Armando DET AL SP 355 .274 -17 -9
Eaton, Adam BAL AL SP 194 .247 -14 -9
Casilla, Alexi MIN AL 2B 121 .216 -12 -10
Cedeno, Ronny SEA AL 2B 101 .193 -12 -10
Betancourt, Yuniesky SEA AL SS 245 .260 -16 -10
Cabrera, Orlando OAK AL SS 312 .267 -18 -11
Aviles, Mike A KC AL SS 127 .200 -15 -12
Navarro, Dioner F TB AL C 228 .236 -19 -14
Wang, Chien-Ming NYA AL SP 162 .201 -18 -14
Matsuzaka, Daisuke BOS AL SP 177 .198 -20 -16


Congratulations are in order to Chien-Ming Wang, as I've finally found a metric that doesn't have him as the least valuable player in the AL.
--Posted at 12:44 pm by SG / 41 Comments | - (22)



MLB Team Catcher Defense Through Games of June 25, 2009

TM POS INN PO A E SB CS CS% WP/PB RS
StL C 655 460 41 22 14 6 30% 22 10
Cin C 645 472 37 21 31 15 33% 21 8
NYM C 634 459 26 18 30 11 27% 17 8
Oak C 641 448 30 15 31 10 24% 15 8
Phi C 635 507 36 11 39 14 26% 11 8
Atl C 648 528 42 29 39 19 33% 28 5
ChC C 621 526 41 28 33 15 31% 28 5
Hou C 637 491 42 20 27 8 23% 20 5
Det C 632 489 41 27 38 15 28% 27 4
Tor C 667 503 48 25 41 19 32% 25 4
Tex C 634 380 33 20 44 16 27% 20 3
Sea C 646 477 39 39 37 20 35% 37 3
Bal C 633 433 20 16 46 8 15% 16 1
Mil C 634 489 40 28 38 10 21% 28 0
LA C 658 521 51 39 41 16 28% 39 0
TB C 650 485 33 30 41 12 23% 30 0
Min C 652 463 25 30 47 10 18% 30 -1
Pit C 629 362 44 30 45 12 21% 29 -2
SF C 630 539 45 35 51 13 20% 35 -3
NYY C 644 536 47 30 66 22 25% 29 -4
Col C 633 450 39 24 54 8 13% 24 -4
Ari C 666 502 35 36 45 10 18% 36 -4
SD C 639 499 32 27 58 12 17% 26 -4
Cle C 657 466 25 29 57 11 16% 29 -4
LAA C 619 427 50 31 53 14 21% 31 -4
CWS C 638 480 18 28 54 3 5% 27 -7
Bos C 639 548 26 28 66 8 11% 28 -8
Was C 630 391 37 43 51 11 18% 42 -8
Fla C 667 545 34 32 73 15 17% 32 -9
KC C 626 485 31 46 51 11 18% 44 -11
Avg C 641 479 36 28 45 12 22% 28 0


WP/PB: Wild pitches and passed balls.
RS: Runs saved compared to average over actual playing time.

Trying to quantify catcher defense is difficult. My system looks at stolen bases allowed (both CS% and attempted), throwing errors and fielding errors, and wild pitches and passed balls. There are other factors that should be considered that may not be easy to quantify, so keep that in mind.

--Posted at 11:26 am by SG / 18 Comments | - (23)




Thursday, June 25, 2009

Yankees.com: Recharged A-Rod carries Yankees

ATLANTA—Alex Rodriguez had promised that he felt fresh enough to stay in the lineup through the weekend, and in a good sign for the Yankees, he kept his word.

Rounding out a series that Rodriguez called his second Opening Day, the slugger continued to snap out of his June swoon, belting a milestone home run and driving in four runs, as the Yankees powered past the Braves on Thursday at Turner Field, 11-7.

One night after busting out of a 1-for-25 skid, Rodriguez equaled an icon with his first swing, belting career home run No. 563 off Atlanta right-hander Derek Lowe to tie Reggie Jackson for 11th place on baseball’s all-time list. Rodriguez also added a two-run single off Peter Moylan in the seventh inning, finishing the night 3-for-5 with two runs scored and a walk.

And here I thought Rodriguez was done.  Mo picked up save #499 tonight as well, although it didn’t seem he would be needed in this game.

--Posted at 11:18 pm by SG / 29 Comments | - (18)



Yankees (39-32) @ Braves (34-37), Thursday, June 25, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 7-3, 4.26) vs. ATL: Derek Lowe (36, RHP, 7-5, 4.09)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.299/.369/.445)
J. Damon, LF (.286/.361/.523)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.286/.389/.595)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.210/.369/.441)
J. Posada, C (.272/.359/.510)
N. Swisher, RF (.240/.374/.502)
B. Gardner, CF (.279/.358/.393)
C. Ransom, 2B (.180/.226/.320)
A. Pettitte, P (.333/.333/.667)

Atlanta Braves
N. McLouth, CF (.259/.340/.466)
M. Prado, 2B (.289/.353/.455)
C. Jones, 3B (.300/.416/.490)
B. McCann, C (.326/.413/.528)
Y. Escobar, SS (.290/.347/.429)
G. Anderson, LF (.277/.309/.387)
J. Francoeur, RF (.250/.284/.350)
C. Kotchman, 1B (.266/.327/.374)
D. Lowe, P (.174/.240/.174)

Whatever.

--Posted at 5:13 pm by SG / 149 Comments | - (14)



2009 Projection Checkpoint Through Games of June 25 - Pitching

Following up on Last week's post about their projections, here's a look at the pitching. I'm only going to look at player's who've pitched at least 20 innings in the majors for now.

One thing that needs to be noted is that no one knew how New Yankee Stadium would play, so we don't know what the park factor impact was to the projections. So make a mental note of that at the very least when looking at the numbers that follow. If the projections seem too optimistic, it's likely that the park factor is at least part of it. Projections are pro-rated to actual YTD playing time, so pay special attention to HRs since that has been the biggest issue in NYS.

C.C. Sabathia
Sabathia was the Yankees' big free agent target and acquisition this off-season. Has he been worth it so far?
C.C. Sabathia IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 102 99 42 39 9 21 89 3.41 3.23 12 25
2009 marcel projection 102 94 39 35 9 24 96 3.07 3.13 16 29
2009 pecota projection 102 98 43 39 10 23 89 3.43 3.38 12 25
2009 tht projection 102 94 40 37 10 21 90 3.25 3.28 14 27
2009 zips projection 102 98 38 35 10 21 93 3.07 3.23 16 29
2009 cairo projection 102 99 44 39 9 27 89 3.48 3.44 12 24
2009 average projection 102 97 41 37 9 23 91 3.29 3.28 14 27
2009 YTD 102 85 45 42 8 31 70 3.71 3.76 9 22


FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement

C.C.'s been a little worse than expected to this point. Interestingly, he's actually allowed fewer homers than any of the projections expected despite the homerrificness of NYS. The bigger issue is the BB rate is higher and the K rate is lower. He's giving up fewer hits than projected, as well. Still, he has an established track record of excellence and is(HOPEFULLY) healthy, so we should see him improve a little as the season goes on.

A.J. Burnett
It's funny with Burnett. A lot of Yankee bloggers and most analysts hated his signing at the time. I didn't hate it, I thought it was risky but could pay off. However, the reason everyone hated it was because Burnett was supposedly an injury risk. Not one analyst said that Burnett wouldn't pitch well when he could pitch, they just thought he wouldn't pitch enough (please correct me on this if I missed anyone). Now that Burnett's been healthy and pitching erratically, many of those same analysts are alluding that the reason they didn't like the Burnett signing was because they knew he would be erratic, not because of the health risk. I call BS.

A.J. Burnett IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 87 83 41 38 8 33 85 3.88 3.61 6 17
2009 marcel projection 87 81 42 39 9 33 84 3.99 3.72 5 16
2009 pecota projection 87 83 40 37 8 32 79 3.82 3.73 7 17
2009 tht projection 87 81 40 37 9 32 81 3.85 3.76 6 17
2009 zips projection 87 84 41 38 10 32 83 3.97 3.86 5 16
2009 cairo projection 87 83 43 39 9 26 82 4.07 3.58 4 15
2009 average projection 87 82 41 38 9 31 82 3.93 3.71 5 16
2009 YTD 87 81 44 41 13 44 82 4.24 4.77 3 13


Burnett hasn't been particularly good so far, due to giving up four more HRs and 13 more BBs than his average projection expected over the 87 innings he's pitched. While his ERA of 4.24 is respectable, it belies a FIP of 4.77 which is a non-trivial concern going forward. While it's still too early to judge his contract only 8% of the way through it, the nay-sayers appear to have been right so far. I still think(hope) A.J. can turn it around.

Andy Pettitte
Pettitte's been one pitcher who's really struggled in NYS (Opponents are hitting .332/.392/.500 against him at home, compared to .207/.277/.329 on the road). Interestingly, his combined stats are very much in-line with how he was projected.
Andy Pettitte IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 87 96 45 42 8 28 65 4.31 3.84 2 13
2009 marcel projection 87 98 46 42 9 27 63 4.38 3.99 1 12
2009 pecota projection 87 96 47 42 9 27 61 4.41 4.02 1 12
2009 tht projection 87 95 44 41 9 26 60 4.27 4.04 2 13
2009 zips projection 87 97 46 43 8 27 61 4.43 3.99 1 12
2009 cairo projection 87 96 47 43 9 26 62 4.45 3.98 1 11
2009 average projection 87 96 46 42 8 27 62 4.37 3.98 1 12
2009 YTD 87 96 44 41 11 33 57 4.26 4.68 2 13


Pettitte's not pretty to watch, but despite his ugly peripherals he's a touch above average in terms of run prevention and gives the team innings. It would be nice if he could get his home performance to match his road performance a little more closely though.

Joba Chamberlain
Joba Chamberlain IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 76 66 31 28 7 29 84 3.39 3.30 9 19
2009 marcel projection 76 67 28 26 5 28 78 3.07 3.14 12 21
2009 pecota projection 76 65 29 26 5 29 81 3.09 3.05 12 21
2009 tht projection 76 62 29 27 6 30 84 3.20 3.19 11 20
2009 zips projection 76 73 34 32 7 30 74 3.77 3.61 6 16
2009 cairo projection 76 72 31 29 7 26 77 3.45 3.36 9 18
2009 average projection 76 68 30 28 6 28 80 3.33 3.27 10 19
2009 YTD 76 70 36 32 8 37 69 3.80 4.22 6 15


Despite the Yankees' foolish insistence on using a reliever in the starting rotation, Joba's been the Yankees' second most valuable starter. That his season line seems disappointing is more a testament to how well he has done the past two seasons than any real disappointment in his current performance. He's walking a few more batters and striking out a few less batters than expected, but part of that is the fact that his projections include his relief stats, which are going to boost his projections slightly since relieving is easier than starting. As long as we remember that he's 23 and still working his way up to building the stamina to become a full-time starter, we should be encouraged by his performance to date. He's already pitched 76 innings, something that would take him a whole season to do as a reliever.

Phil Hughes
I think some people forget that Hughes is nine months younger than Joba. While his MLB time has been mixed, he's looked pretty good this year. I was at the game versus the Braves on Tuesday and the Braves fans were oohing and aahing when Hughes hit 96 on his fastball several times. The myth of his 'only 91 mph fastball' should be silenced now. A healthy Hughes has the stuff that made him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Now he's hitting 96 in relief, which means he's probably going to lose some of that velocity when he moves back to the rotation, but he should still maintain enough to be effective.

Phil Hughes IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 45 46 23 22 5 17 38 4.28 4.10 1 7
2009 marcel projection 45 45 25 23 5 17 35 4.61 4.19 -1 5
2009 pecota projection 45 47 26 24 5 18 36 4.74 4.27 -1 4
2009 tht projection 45 44 23 22 5 17 35 4.28 4.27 1 7
2009 zips projection 45 47 23 21 3 18 32 4.27 3.83 1 7
2009 cairo projection 45 47 24 23 4 15 34 4.53 3.94 0 5
2009 average projection 45 46 24 22 5 17 35 4.45 4.10 0 6
2009 YTD 45 42 24 23 7 17 45 4.57 4.35 0 5


As you can see Hughes is pitching around where his projections expected, although with a higher K rate. In general, a starter moved to relief will see his K rate increase by about 16%, so that explains part of the higher K rate. Still, Hughes is finally flashing the talent that made him famous. I'd still like to see him starting again, either in the majors or in AAA, because I think he needs to build his innings up.

Chien-Ming Wang
Hide the women and the kids, because what you are about to see is explicit.

Chien-Ming Wang IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 31 37 17 16 2 10 17 4.47 3.86 0 4
2009 marcel projection 31 31 14 13 2 10 17 3.83 3.89 2 6
2009 pecota projection 31 35 17 15 3 10 17 4.39 4.19 0 4
2009 tht projection 31 34 15 13 2 10 15 3.88 4.07 2 6
2009 zips projection 31 33 15 14 1 10 15 3.92 3.80 2 6
2009 cairo projection 31 33 15 14 2 11 15 4.16 4.04 1 5
2009 average projection 31 34 15 14 2 10 16 4.11 3.98 1 5
2009 YTD 31 56 40 39 6 15 25 11.21 5.53 -23 -19


If Wang can pitch 120 more innings at his average projected ERA of 4.11, he'll end the season with 151 innings and a 5.89 ERA. In the entire history of the Yankees, there have only been three pitchers to pitch at least 140 innings with an ERA of 5.5 or higher:

David Cone in 2000 (6.91 ERA in 155 IP).
Jeff Weaver in 2003 (5.99 ERA in 159.1 IP).
Kenny Rogers in 1997 (5.65 ERA in 145 IP).

The good news is Wang has been a little better lately and may be able to pitch closer to his projections over the rest of the season. Also, this may make Wang cheaper in arbitration next year. The bad news is there's very little chance of Wang salvaging this season and finishing with respectable numbers, although that doesn't really matter going forward.

Phil Coke
Coke impressed in 2008, but prior to that his minor league numbers werent' all that good, as reflected in his projections.

Phil Coke IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 30 30 15 14 3 12 28 4.25 3.96 1 5
2009 marcel projection 30 28 14 13 3 10 24 3.94 3.89 2 6
2009 pecota projection 30 34 18 17 3 12 22 4.99 4.43 -2 2
2009 tht projection 30 34 20 18 4 15 19 5.44 5.33 -3 1
2009 zips projection 30 34 18 17 4 13 19 4.91 4.72 -1 2
2009 cairo projection 30 39 21 20 4 6 18 5.82 4.33 -4 -1
2009 average projection 30 33 18 16 4 11 21 4.89 4.44 -1 2
2009 YTD 30 20 15 12 5 12 22 3.56 5.08 3 7


Now a lot of the input into his projections were based on Coke being a starter. If you convert his average projection to a relief equivalent, you get a revised line of:
IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
30 29 14 13 3 12 25 3.89 4.20 2.0 5.0


The starter->relief conversion that I use assumes:
H: 0.87
R/ER: 0.79
HR: .95
BB: 1.06
K: 1.16

So what those mean is, for example, if a pitcher is projected to give up 100 hits as a starter, he should give 0.87 times 100 = 87 hits as a reliever.

He's given up fewer hits than the relief conversion would have expected, and more HRs, but the BB rate and K rate are reasonably close. While his ERA is good, his peripherals are a warning that he hasn't pitched as well as the ERA shows. I have no idea whether we should expect his peripherals to improve to match his ERA, or if we should expect him to pitch closer to his FIP going forward.

Alfredo Aceves
In a season where almost every member of the bullpen has disappointed, AA is an oasis in a desert of suck. Aceves was projected as a starter, where he was expected to be slightly worse than average, but solidly above replacement level.

Alfredo Aceves IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 31 35 18 17 5 11 20 4.95 4.87 -2 2
2009 marcel projection 31 30 14 13 3 11 22 3.86 4.34 2 6
2009 pecota projection 31 35 19 17 4 10 19 5.03 4.84 -2 2
2009 tht projection 31 35 18 17 5 11 20 4.95 4.87 -2 2
2009 zips projection 31 36 19 18 5 8 16 5.19 5.18 -2 1
2009 cairo projection 31 32 18 17 4 4 17 4.83 4.37 -1 3
2009 average projection 31 34 18 17 4 9 19 4.80 4.75 -1 3
2009 YTD 31 25 8 8 4 6 27 2.32 3.72 8 11


Same deal as with Coke, if we convert his projection to a relief equivalent, we get an improved line of:
IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
31 30 14 13 3 12 25 3.89 4.20 2.1 5.2


FIP expects him to pitch closer to an ERA in the mid 3s going forward, looking at both his YTD performance and his revised projection, but he should still be a solid asset in the pen going forward.

Jose Veras
jose veras IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 26 24 12 12 3 11 26 4.05 3.80 1 4
2009 marcel projection 26 24 12 12 3 11 22 4.09 4.22 1 4
2009 pecota projection 26 23 12 11 2 11 25 3.70 3.75 2 5
2009 tht projection 26 23 12 11 2 11 26 3.85 3.70 2 5
2009 zips projection 26 25 13 12 3 12 25 4.31 4.36 1 4
2009 cairo projection 26 27 13 13 3 11 22 4.53 4.34 0 3
2009 average projection 26 24 12 12 3 11 24 4.09 4.03 1 4
2009 YTD 26 23 17 17 5 14 18 5.95 5.96 -4 -1


While Veras had a good season last year, he slumped later in the year, and his command was always a major concern. Veras's command was horrible this year and it's reflected in his results. He's been traded to Cleveland for cash considerations.

Jonathan Albaladejo
Albaladejo was expected to be a decent back-end relief option although his projections weren't really all that good.

jonathan albaladejo IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 21 23 12 11 3 8 16 4.75 4.67 -1 2
2009 marcel projection 21 20 10 10 2 8 17 4.09 3.90 1 4
2009 pecota projection 21 23 12 11 3 8 15 4.58 4.49 0 2
2009 tht projection 21 20 10 9 3 9 16 4.03 4.44 1 4
2009 zips projection 21 23 12 11 3 8 15 4.87 4.87 -1 2
2009 cairo projection 21 24 13 12 3 6 14 5.29 4.67 -2 1
2009 average projection 21 22 12 11 3 8 15 4.60 4.51 0 2
2009 YTD 21 24 16 14 5 10 12 6.00 6.58 -4 -1


He essentially matched Veras's output though, with a few less walks and Ks. He's doing well back in Scranton/WB and may end up getting another chance this year.

Mariano F'ing Rivera
Mo's early season velocity wasn't very good as he was building up arm strength after off-season surgery. Seeing his cutter at 88-89 mph was alarming, as was seeing batters hit .306/.306/.551 against him over his first 12 games. His velocity's been better lately and over his last 16 games he's looked more like Mo, with a 2.55 ERA and with hitters hitting .185/.221/.292 against him.
Mariano Rivera IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 29 26 10 9 2 5 28 2.86 2.64 5 9
2009 marcel projection 29 26 10 10 2 6 26 3.09 3.08 5 8
2009 pecota projection 29 25 9 8 2 5 28 2.42 2.54 7 10
2009 tht projection 29 24 9 8 2 5 28 2.52 2.57 6 10
2009 zips projection 29 24 8 7 1 4 28 2.28 2.24 7 11
2009 cairo projection 29 23 8 8 2 5 27 2.38 2.61 7 10
2009 average projection 29 25 9 8 2 5 27 2.59 2.61 6 10
2009 YTD 29 27 11 10 5 3 37 3.10 3.20 5 8


A lot has been made of Mo's high K rate, and his K/9 of 11.5 is 37% higher than his projected 8.4. Even if you instead look at the more accurate Ks per batters faced, you can see that Mo has fanned 31.6% of the batters he's faced, compared to his projected 23%. That's 37% higher. So we should be comfortable that Mo will be fine going forward, although there will almost certainly be at least one more WWWMW along the way.

Team
Here are the cumulative totals for the players above:
Total IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR
2009 chone projection 565 565 267 247 54 185 495 3.93 3.68 36.0 106.6
2009 marcel projection 565 544 256 236 51 187 483 3.75 3.66 46.9 117.5
2009 pecota projection 565 563 270 247 54 187 472 3.93 3.76 35.9 106.6
2009 tht projection 565 545 260 241 56 188 474 3.84 3.81 41.5 112.1
2009 zips projection 565 574 268 248 56 184 462 3.95 3.82 34.4 105.0
2009 cairo projection 565 574 278 257 56 163 456 4.10 3.75 25.4 96.0
2009 average projection 565 561 267 246 55 182 474 3.92 3.75 36.7 107.3
2009 YTD 565 549 300 279 77 222 464 4.44 4.51 3.5 74.1


The staff as comprised above has allowed 22 more HRs than expected, while walking 40 more batters and fanning 10 fewer. They've been close to three wins worse than projected to this point. At 39-32 they're on a projected 89 win pace. If they had those 3 wins, they'd be 42-29 and on a 96 win pace.

Projecting pitching is a pain in the ass, because even if you nail the peripherals, ERA is subject to fluctuations that we can't predict. If we look at the RMSE(root mean square error) for each individual pitchers' ERA, the projection systems rank like this:

Projection rERA
chone 0.78
cairo 0.80
average 0.81
pecota 0.81
marcel 0.83
zips 0.83
tht 0.86


If we want to instead look at how well the systems did in projecting the peripherals, we can look at the RMSE of FIP, and that looks like this:

Projection rFIP
cairo 0.83
pecota 0.84
average 0.85
tht 0.85
marcel 0.85
zips 0.86
chone 0.87


And lastly, if we average ERA and FIP and then look at the RMSE of the average, we get this:

Projection r((ERA+FIP)/2)
cairo 0.81
pecota 0.83
chone 0.83
average 0.83
marcel 0.84
zips 0.85
tht 0.86


We do have to consider the impact of NYS on these projections, and we do also have to remember there's still close to 60% of the season left to play and a lot can change. On the whole, we can see the pitching staff has been disappointing overall, but they have been better in June and can hopefully carry that going forward.
--Posted at 1:55 pm by SG / 28 Comments | - (26)




Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Acosta, Franklin, Benitez, Miceli and Clontz

Who are five pitchers I’d hate to have in my bullpen? No.
A prestigious personal injury law firm? No.

These are the five men to face down Mariano Rivera, the batter.

6/24/09 - Manny Acosta gets Rivera to line out to center.
6/20/06 - Ryan Franklin strikes Rivera out (the only man on earth who can claim such an honor).
10/25/00 - Armando Benitez gets Mo to fly out to right.
10/21/98 - Dan Miceli induces a weak popup to the second baseman.
10/22/96 - Brad Clontz gets Rivera to ground out to second.

Bold prediction: Rivera’s next at bat will come on either June 23 or October 23.

--Posted at 9:32 pm by Sean McNally / 29 Comments | - (27)



Yankees (38-32) @ Braves (34-36), Wednesday, June 24, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 3-2, 3.89) vs. ATL: Kenshin Kawakami (34, RHP, 4-6, 4.42)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.301/.371/.449)
J. Damon, LF (.280/.356/.521)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.282/.385/.592)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.207/.362/.443)
R. Cano, 2B (.305/.338/.495)
N. Swisher, RF (.240/.375/.493)
B. Gardner, CF (.285/.361/.401)
F. Cervelli, C (.288/.300/.322)
J. Chamberlain, P (-/-/-)

Atlanta Braves
N. McLouth, CF (.259/.343/.465)
Y. Escobar, SS (.296/.353/.437)
C. Jones, 3B (.295/.410/.488)
B. McCann, C (.328/.416/.534)
G. Anderson, LF (.284/.315/.396)
C. Kotchman, 1B (.265/.324/.375)
J. Francoeur, RF (.246/.281/.336)
K. Johnson, 2B (.222/.293/.373)
K. Kawakami, P (.143/.143/.143)

Whatever.

--Posted at 5:39 pm by SG / 287 Comments | - (19)



Yankee Team Splits for June 2009 Through Games of June 23

The thing that sucks about going to see baseball live (aside from leaving the basement and seeing the scary sun) is that when your team is sucking, you can't switch the channel to watch The Deadliest Catch. Anyway, as most Yankee fans know, June has been a pretty ugly month. The Yankees entered June with a record of 29-21 and a half game lead in the AL East. They were averaging 5.4 runs per game offensively, although the pitching had been disappointing with an RA of 4.94 per game.

In June they've only won nine of 20 games, and are scoring 4.7 runs per game. The pitching has been much improved, with an RA of 4.29, but the offense going MIA has been the big problem. They've lost 5.5 games in the standings, although they are still in the wild card lead (tied with Toronto) and 0.5 games ahead of Texas and LA of A.

Here are the team's June splits for offense, pitching and defense.
Player Split G PA Hits 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG BR wOBA Ratio
Derek Jeter June 18 78 20 2 0 2 8 6 5 0 .286 .359 .400 11 .338 .950
Robinson Cano June 20 84 22 3 0 3 4 8 2 0 .282 .321 .436 11 .325 .937
Johnny Damon June 19 74 14 4 0 4 10 14 1 0 .219 .324 .469 10 .337 .911
Nick Swisher June 19 73 16 8 0 2 13 10 0 0 .267 .397 .500 12 .381 1.037
Mark Teixeira June 19 83 20 7 0 4 11 7 1 0 .286 .398 .557 15 .384 .968
Jorge Posada June 17 67 13 1 0 3 7 13 0 0 .217 .299 .383 7 .300 .836
Hideki Matsui June 19 58 10 1 0 3 11 9 0 0 .213 .362 .426 8 .350 .993
Brett Gardner June 18 32 9 0 1 0 6 2 7 0 .346 .469 .423 7 .409 1.209
Cody Ransom June 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 .000 .000
Melky Cabrera June 20 75 13 4 0 2 9 11 0 0 .200 .293 .354 7 .274 .820
Jose Molina June 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 .000 .000
Xavier Nady June 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 .000 .000
Ramiro Pena June 9 13 3 0 0 0 1 3 1 1 .250 .308 .250 1 .263 .988
Angel Berroa June 7 11 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 .100 .182 .200 0 .172 1.071
Alex Rodriguez June 19 77 9 2 0 2 12 15 2 0 .143 .299 .270 7 .270 .773
Francisco Cervelli June 5 17 5 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 .294 .294 .353 2 .279 1.014
Team June 209 742 155 34 1 25 92 104 19 1 .241 .341 .414 97 .328 .939


PA: Plate appearances
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted or above/below average/replacement)
wOBA:: Weighted on base average
Ratio: wOIBA for the month divided by season wOBA (greater than one means player has performed better this month than overall)

Player Split G IP H R ER HR BB K RA ERA FIP CERA AVG RSAR
A.J. Burnett June 4 23.0 22 10 7 3 13 25 3.91 2.74 4.55 4.69 3.99 4
Alfredo Aceves June 8 11.3 9 2 2 2 3 9 1.59 1.59 4.70 3.53 3.27 5
Andy Pettitte June 4 23.0 26 13 12 3 10 23 5.09 4.70 4.33 5.21 4.75 1
Anthony Paul Claggett June 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Brett Tomko June 6 10.0 10 8 8 3 4 9 7.20 7.20 6.50 5.74 6.48 -2
Brian Bruney June 2 1.3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.00 1.70 0.00 0.57 1
CC Sabathia June 4 24.0 20 13 12 4 7 14 4.88 4.50 5.20 3.81 4.50 2
Chien-Ming Wang June 4 17.3 24 15 14 3 7 16 7.79 7.27 4.82 6.54 6.21 -4
Damaso Marte June 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
David Robertson June 8 8.3 4 3 2 1 5 14 3.24 2.16 3.20 2.46 2.61 2
Edwar Ramirez June 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Joba Chamberlain June 4 24.0 17 10 10 1 12 18 3.75 3.75 4.12 2.89 3.59 5
Jonathan Albaladejo June 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Jose Veras June 3 5.0 4 1 1 1 0 2 1.80 1.80 5.60 3.55 3.65 2
Mariano Rivera June 7 7.0 6 5 4 0 2 7 6.43 5.14 2.06 2.67 3.29 -1
Mark Melancon June 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Nick Swisher June 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Phil Coke June 10 9.0 4 1 1 0 3 10 1.00 1.00 1.98 1.16 1.38 5
Phil Hughes June 6 10.7 5 2 2 1 2 14 1.69 1.69 2.36 1.52 1.85 5
Team June 70 174.0 151 83 75 22 68 162 4.29 3.88 4.27 3.89 4.02 26


FIP: FIP
CERA: Component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
AVG: Average of ERA,FIP and CERA
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher

Player Pos G INN CH PM ZR AvgPM Diff RS
Teixeira, Mark 1B 18 151.0 26 24 .921 23 1 1
Rodriguez, Alex 3B 18 143.0 52 42 .807 41 1 1
Swisher, Nick 1B 3 14.0 2 2 1.001 2 0 0
Cabrera, Melky LF 3 25.0 10 9 .900 9 0 0
Berroa, Angel 3B 4 21.0 6 5 .832 5 0 0
Cabrera, Melky CF 12 87.7 22 20 .908 20 0 0
Posada, Jorge 1B 0 0.0 0 0 .000 0 0 0
Pena, Ramiro 2B 0 0.0 0 0 .000 0 0 0
Nady, Xavier RF 0 0.0 0 0 .000 0 0 0
Ransom, Cody 3B 0 0.0 0 0 .000 0 0 0
Pena, Ramiro 3B 1 1.0 0 0 .000 0 0 0
Pena, Ramiro SS 6 32.0 10 8 .800 8 0 0
Swisher, Nick RF 15 120.0 32 28 .876 28 0 0
Cabrera, Melky RF 11 45.0 6 5 .836 5 0 0
Swisher, Nick LF 1 8.0 4 3 .751 4 0 0
Gardner, Brett CF 15 77.3 30 26 .868 27 -1 -1
Cano, Robinson 2B 19 165.0 56 44 .787 46 -2 -2
Jeter, Derek SS 17 133.0 35 27 .773 29 -2 -2
Damon, Johnny LF 15 132.0 27 21 .780 24 -3 -2
Team 158 1155 318 264 .831 272 -8 -6


G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved

--Posted at 10:54 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (24)




Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Yankees.com: Yanks’ lineup offers no support for Wang

ATLANTA—Switching to a new National League entry proved to be no remedy for the slumbering Yankees bats, who continued their June swoon with a 4-0 loss to the Braves on Tuesday at Turner Field.

Much of the hand-wringing leading into the Interleague contest centered upon New York starter Chien-Ming Wang, who was lost for the season last June 15 when he injured his right foot running the bases—an injury which proved season-ending and perhaps career-altering.

Though Wang remained winless through his seventh start of the season, touched for three third-inning runs in an abbreviated 62-pitch outing, neither his pitching nor his running were the real issues, as the Yankees lost for the ninth time in 13 games. Once again, it was the offense, with Wang appearing in a cameo role to the lineup struggles.

In other news, a brilliant young sabermetrician was found after the game passed out drunk in a Turner Field bathroom wearing an Enrique Wilson jersey.

--Posted at 9:37 pm by Jonathan / 45 Comments | - (27)



Yankees (38-31) @ Braves (33-36), Tuesday, June 23, 2009, 7:00pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Chien-Ming Wang (29, RHP, 0-5, 12.30) vs. ATL: Tommy Hanson (22, RHP, 2-0, 4.08)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.301/.371/.449)
N. Swisher, RF (.245/.383/.505)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.286/.387/.599)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.213/.371/.456)
R. Cano, 2B (.305/.336/.496)
J. Posada, C (.280/.367/.524)
M. Cabrera, LF (.282/.340/.436)
B. Gardner, CF (.284/.358/.403)
C. Wang, P (---/---/---)

Atlanta Braves
N. McLouth, CF (.264/.348/.473)
Y. Escobar, SS (.292/.351/.436)
C. Jones, 3B (.299/.413/.495)
B. McCann, C (.318/.409/.506)
G. Anderson, LF (.285/.317/.394)
C. Kotchman, 1B (.264/.324/.376)
J. Francoeur, RF (.249/.284/.340)
K. Johnson, 2B (.225/.297/.378)
T. Hanson, P (.200/.200/.200)

Keep that bat on your shoulder Wang.

This is the most important game ever, because I am going to be in attendance.  Go Yankees.

--Posted at 4:11 pm by SG / 174 Comments | - (21)



Northjersey.com (Klapisch): Judgment days ahead for Girardi

As the Yankees slip just out of the Red Sox’ radar range, Joe Girardi enters a critical phase of his managerial career. He must prove he’s secure enough to survive the Bombers’ recent turbulence without burnout – to himself and his key players.

Girardi already crossed that line with Alex Rodriguez, using his refurbished slugger in 38 consecutive games after he returned from hip surgery. General manager Brian Cashman denies he had to intercede on A-Rod’s behalf, insisting the decision to rest Rodriguez was a medical recommendation, not a corporate rebuke. Still.

I thought hiring Girardi was a good move at the time.  I don’t think he’s a bad manager, but he’s not as good as I thought he’d be either.

--Posted at 8:50 am by SG / 86 Comments | - (22)




Monday, June 22, 2009

Who Are Baseball’s Biggest Offensive Overachievers so Far in 2009?

I was looking at Joe Mauer’s incredible season so far this year and thought it would be interesting to see how much he was exceeding his projections by.  Then I decided I should expand that look to everyone, so here’s a list.  I’m using wOBA, which is a rate version of linear weights, but restricting it to players with at least 100 PAs, and players who are exceeding their average projected wOBA by at least 10%.

Player PA avgWOBA actwOBA Ratio
Jason Bartlett 200 .309 .434 1.405
Ben Zobrist 225 .319 .436 1.367
Joe Mauer 202 .380 .509 1.341
Adam Kennedy 176 .301 .375 1.243
Brandon Inge 273 .313 .385 1.232
Torii Hunter 260 .346 .425 1.227
Russell Branyan 251 .352 .428 1.217
Lyle Overbay 210 .337 .407 1.210
Raul Ibanez 276 .357 .431 1.207
Juan Pierre 227 .305 .368 1.207
Omir Santos 123 .273 .328 1.203
Marco Scutaro 332 .313 .375 1.198
Manny Ramirez 119 .405 .484 1.195
Nolan Reimold 122 .331 .391 1.184
Craig Counsell 185 .298 .352 1.180
Victor Martinez 310 .351 .410 1.166
Adrian Gonzalez 294 .372 .433 1.163
Ichiro Suzuki 283 .330 .384 1.162
Jamey Carroll 113 .303 .349 1.155
Evan Longoria 285 .365 .421 1.154
Clint Barmes 242 .314 .361 1.152
Ross Gload 109 .313 .360 1.148
Gary Sheffield 185 .335 .384 1.148
Chone Figgins 295 .326 .373 1.147
Elvis Andrus 202 .277 .318 1.147
Nick Green 170 .307 .352 1.146
Scott Rolen 250 .335 .383 1.144
Andruw Jones 144 .330 .377 1.144
Alex Cora 131 .299 .342 1.142
Travis Hafner 110 .370 .423 1.142
Freddy Sanchez 287 .324 .369 1.137
Juan Rivera 238 .331 .376 1.136
Julio Lugo 101 .308 .349 1.135
Justin Morneau 302 .369 .418 1.131
Casey Blake 249 .342 .386 1.129
Scott Podsednik 198 .311 .351 1.128
Michael Young 289 .334 .374 1.118
Jason Bay 295 .372 .414 1.115
Carlos Ruiz 146 .320 .356 1.113
Alberto Callaspo 246 .323 .358 1.110
Carlos Delgado 110 .361 .401 1.109
Willy Aybar 151 .333 .369 1.108
Michael Cuddyer 264 .339 .375 1.107
Brandon Phillips 257 .336 .371 1.105
Brett Gardner 150 .309 .341 1.105
Seth Smith 143 .357 .393 1.102
Nick Hundley 162 .294 .324 1.100
Ramon Santiago 115 .302 .333 1.100


PA: Plate appearances
avgWOBA: Average projeted wOBA using CHONE, marcel, Hardball Times, PECOTA, ZiPS and CAIRO projections
actWOBA: Actual year to date wOBA
Ratio: actWOBA divided by avgWOBA (the higher this is, the more a player is excerding his projection by)

Getting back to Mauer, he is really having an incredible season. Despite missing the first 20 some games of the season he's neck and neck with Zack Greinke for most valuable player in the American League using my methodologies. Mauer is hitting .407/.475/.727 in 202 PA, which is 35 runs better than a replacement level catcher. He's also saved five runs defensively over the average catcher, making him around 40 runs better than replacement level so far. How good has Mauer been? He's 30 runs better than the two catchers that rank as the second and third most valuable catchers in the AL (Mike Napoli is +14/-4 and Jorge Posada is +13/-4). Simply amazing.

Greinke's no slouch himself. I've got him around 41 runs above a replacement level pitcher. In 101 innings he's allowed three HRs, walked 18 and struck out 106. His ridiculously low ERA of 1.96 is actually higher than his FIP of 1.91.

No Yankees are on the overachiever list with the cutoff I am using. Err, Brett Gardner snuck onto the list when I wasn't looking. Melky's the second highest with a ratio of 1.079 (projected:.317, actual: .342).
--Posted at 2:45 pm by SG / 43 Comments | - (35)



Yet Another Example of Why Interleague Play Stinks

Team W% vs AL W% vs NL Diff
Min 0.486 0.702 0.216
Det 0.484 0.681 0.197
KC 0.422 0.596 0.174
LAA 0.574 0.702 0.128
Bal 0.416 0.532 0.116
Tex 0.477 0.574 0.098
TB 0.499 0.553 0.055
Oak 0.458 0.511 0.053
Sea 0.461 0.511 0.050
Bos 0.588 0.617 0.029
CWS 0.493 0.478 -0.015
NYY 0.568 0.532 -0.036
Tor 0.533 0.447 -0.086
Cle 0.542 0.383 -0.159


W% vs AL: Team winning percentage vs. other AL teams (2007 - 2009)
W% vs NL: Team winning percentage vs. NL teams (2007 - 2009)
Diff: W% vs. NL minus W% vs. AL
--Posted at 12:03 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (29)




Sunday, June 21, 2009

Yankees (38-30) @ Marlins (34-36), Sunday, June 12, 2009, 5:05pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: C.C. Sabathia (28, LHP, 6-4, 3.67) vs. FLA: Chris Volstad (22, RHP, 4-7, 4.75)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.303/.374/.453)
N. Swisher, RF (.244/.381/.502)
M> Teixeira, 1B (.286/.389/.601)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.212/.373/.462)
R. Cano, 2B (.309/.340/.504)
J. Posada, C (.281/.370/.532)
M. Cabrera, LF (.283/.341/.440)
B. Gardner, CF (.277/.354/.385)
C. Sabathia, P (---/---/---)

Florida Marlins
C. Coghlan, LF (.258/.365/.364)
W. Helms, 3b (.239/.284/.293)
H. Ramirez, SS (.328/.396/.508)
J> Cantu, 1B (.271/.323/.446)
D. Uggla, 2B (.216/.329/.432)
R. Paulino, C .287/.363/.465)
C. Ross, CF (.266/.313/.477)
B. Carroll, RF (.289/.347/.422)
C. Volstad, P (.077/.077/.077)

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 2:59 pm by SG / 100 Comments | - (20)



NY Post: SOURCES: YANKEES SIGN DOMINICAN CATCHER GARY SANCHEZ FOR $2.5M

“He is a big kid with a big arm,” a Latin American talent evaluator for an NL team said of the 6-foot-2, 210-pound Sanchez. “I would like to have him, but $2.5 million is a lot of money. He has a thick body. He is a real good hitter, but he doesn’t hit like Jesus Montero.”

The Yankees gave Montero, a catcher from Venezuela, $1.6 million in 2006 and he has impressed with the bat in two-plus years in the organization. After hitting .356 with eight homers and 37 RBIs in 48 games for Single-A Tampa, the 19-year-old Montero (6-foot-4, 225 pounds) was promoted to Double-A Trenton, where he is batting .283 with three RBIs in 13 games.

“Sanchez shows a lot of power in batting practice, but it doesn’t always transfer to games when the swing gets a little long,” the scout said. “He is an interesting guy.”

The Yankees are also interested in shortstop Miguel Angel Sano.

“If he is 16, I have never seen a 16-year-old with that type of body,” the scout said of the 6-foot-3 Sano.

I’m happy to see the Yankees being aggressive in re-stocking the farm with position players.

--Posted at 9:26 am by SG / 15 Comments | - (24)




Saturday, June 20, 2009

Yankees (38-29) @ Marlins (33-36), Saturday, June 20, 2009, 7:10pm

NYY: A.J. Burnett (32, RHP, 5-3, 4.46) vs. FLA: Josh Johnson (25, RHP, 6-1, 2.76)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.308/.379/.460)
J. Damon, LF (.283/.353/.528)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.286/.388/.604)
J. Posada, C (289/.380/.548
R. Cano, 2B (.310/.341/.507)
N. Swisher, RF (.243/.381/.505)
M. Cabrera, CF (.287/.346/.447)
A. Berroa, 3B (.150/.190/.200)
A. Burnett, P (---/---/---)

Florida Marlins
C. Coghlan, LF (.266/.375/.375)
E. Bonifacio, 3b (.244/.289/.295)
H. Ramirez, ss (.324/.391/.506)
J. Cantu, 1B (.275/.328/.453)
D. Uggla, 2B (.216/.330/.422)
J. Hermida, RF (.265/.361/.403)
C. Ross, CF (.265/.313/.479)
J. Baker, C (.244/.335/.413)
J. Johnson, P (.103/.161/.207)

Josh Johnson’s having a very nice season, and the Marlins are 11-3 in his 14 starts.  12 of his 14 starts have been quality starts (6 or more innings, 3 or fewer runs).  His ERA has not gone above 2.91 yet this season.  His 2.93 FIP shows he hasn’t been particularly lucky either.  I’ve got him ranked third in the NL in terms of runs saved above replacement, behind Dan Haren and Matt Cain.  Hell, he’s even homered this year.  The Yankees will have their hands full with him tonight.

Burnett’s leading the AL in walks and wild pitches.  Good for him.  He does have a 3.31 ERA over his last six starts, so maybe he’s rounding into form.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 3:37 pm by SG / 255 Comments | - (21)



Yankees.com: Pettitte, Yankees coast past West, Fish

Coming off three recent games in which an unfamiliar pitcher stymied them, the Yankees battered the rookie West for five runs in four-plus innings, providing plenty of backing for a sharp Andy Pettitte to take the series opener, 5-1, over the Marlins. At least on this night, the Yankees had no trouble turning unfamiliar pitches into a familiar result.

--Posted at 9:35 am by SG / 31 Comments | - (21)




Friday, June 19, 2009

Yankees (37-29) @ Marlins (33-35), Friday, June 19, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 6-3, 4.52) vs. FLA: Sean West (23, LHP, 2-1, 3.00)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.305/.375/.456)
J. Damon, LF (.281/.353/.530)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.283/.387/.608)
J. Posada, C (.282/.373/.550)
R. Cano, 2B (.311/.340/.511)
N. Swisher, RF (.244/.385/.507)
M. Cabrera, CF (.286/.340/.432)
A. Berroa, 3B (.125/.176/.125)
A. Pettitte, P (---/---/---)

Florida Marlins
C. Coghlan, LF (.274/.385/.387)
W. Helms, 3B (.250/.296/.307)
H. Ramirez, ss (.325/.393/.506)
J. Cantu, 1B (.276/.329/.453)
D. Uggla, 2B (.218/.333/.428)
R. Paulino, C (.296/.373/.480)
J. Hermida, RF (.268/.365/.409)
C. Ross, CF (.264/.312/.468)
S. West, P (.000/.000/.000)

Interleague play is a sick joke.  Go Yankees.

--Posted at 4:07 pm by SG / 189 Comments | - (24)



2009 Projection Checkpoint Through Games of June 18 - Offense

With the season being about 40% over, and with me wanting to pretend the Yankees didn't just lose two of three games at home to the worst team in the league, I thought it might be interesting to look back at the pre-season projections and see how the Yankees are doing relative to their expectations. I will note one thing about yesterday's game. Waiting for over 5 hrs for the rain to go away was good for business, because it meant more concession and memoribilia sales.

I'll do a separate post for the pitching and maybe the defense later, but for now here's a look at the position players offensively.

I am going to look at the same projections that I used in the pre-season projections, pro-rated to the player's YTD playing time.

Jorge Posada
Coming off a pretty major injury and subsequent surgery, as well as being 37 years old, Posada was a big concern coming into the season. Here's how the projection systems saw him doing in 2009, as well as his actual YTD totals.

I'm going to use the absolute difference in projected wOBA versus actul wOBA to determine which projection was the closest to this point, and highlight that row in yellow. Projections will be pro-rated to the player's actual PAs at this point.

jorge posada PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 153 35 7 0 5 0 0 19 28 .266 .363 .434 21 89 30 .341 .259 .300 .382 .424 .032 6
2009 marcel projection 153 38 9 0 5 1 0 18 28 .285 .371 .466 23 97 38 .352 .269 .311 .394 .435 .021 3
2009 pecota projection 153 33 8 0 4 0 0 17 30 .249 .336 .406 19 79 20 .317 .236 .276 .357 .397 .057 7
2009 tht projection 153 37 8 0 4 0 0 18 27 .279 .373 .444 22 92 34 .350 .267 .308 .391 .432 .024 4
2009 zips projection 153 38 9 0 4 0 0 18 28 .286 .383 .455 23 96 38 .358 .275 .316 .400 .441 .016 2
2009 cairo projection 153 38 9 1 4 0 0 19 28 .289 .386 .465 23 99 40 .362 .279 .320 .404 .446 .011 1
2009 average projection 153 37 8 0 4 0 0 18 28 .276 .369 .445 22 92 33 .347 .264 .305 .388 .429 .027 3
2009 actuals 153 37 8 0 9 1 0 19 29 .282 .373 .550 26 111 12 .374 .289 .331 .416 .458


BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR/650: BR above replacement level adjusted for primary position
wOBA: Weighted on base average
-2 Std: wOBA minus 2 standard deviations
-1 Std: wOBA minus 1 standard deviation
+1 Std: wOBA plus 1 standard deviations (Stdev for wOBA = SQRT(
+2 Std: wOBA plus 2 standard deviations
Diff: Absolute value of wOBA minus projected wOBA
Rank: Projection systems ranked from smallest to largest Diff (lower means closer)

In Posada's case, he's blowing away all his projections, although the deadly accurate CAIRO systems is of course the closest. Catchers don't get 650 PAs, but at his current pace Posada would be more than one win better offensively than his average projection. Of course, one thing we have to keep in mind with the projections here is New Yankee Stadium. If the projections assumed NYS would have the same park factors as the old stadium or would play neutral then the numbers are all going to be low for hitters and high for pitchers.

Of course, we shouldn't expect Posada to play at his current pace going forward, we should realistically expect him to play a little closer to his projections over the rest of the season. That would still be a solid comeback season as long as he can stay reasonably healthy

Mark Teixeira
mark teixeira PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 284 70 15 0 14 1 0 36 48 .286 .381 .521 47 108 33 .374 .312 .343 .405 .436 .023 5
2009 marcel projection 284 71 17 0 13 1 0 36 48 .292 .393 .522 48 110 36 .381 .319 .350 .412 .443 .016 1
2009 pecota projection 284 70 15 1 12 1 0 35 45 .287 .379 .506 46 104 30 .367 .306 .336 .398 .429 .029 7
2009 tht projection 284 70 16 0 13 0 0 35 47 .287 .383 .513 47 106 32 .373 .311 .342 .403 .434 .024 6
2009 zips projection 284 71 17 0 13 1 0 37 46 .292 .392 .517 48 109 35 .379 .317 .348 .410 .441 .018 2
2009 cairo projection 284 71 16 0 14 1 0 36 47 .291 .387 .528 48 110 35 .378 .316 .347 .409 .440 .019 3
2009 average projection 284 71 16 0 13 1 0 36 47 .289 .386 .518 47 108 33 .375 .313 .344 .406 .437 .021 4
2009 actuals 284 68 18 0 20 0 0 36 41 .283 .387 .608 54 124 21 .397 .334 .365 .428 .459
Teixeira's been a bust, if you define bust as being much better than projected. Theo Epstein's brilliant plan to trick the Yankees into overpaying for him has crippled them for years to come. Score one for Marcel so far here.

Robinson Cano
robinson cano PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 285 81 18 2 8 2 1 14 31 .300 .340 .468 40 90 27 .336 .276 .306 .366 .396 .012 1
2009 marcel projection 285 78 18 1 7 2 2 15 34 .295 .334 .455 38 86 22 .328 .268 .298 .358 .387 .020 6
2009 pecota projection 285 76 16 1 6 2 1 14 33 .284 .322 .419 34 77 14 .311 .252 .282 .340 .370 .037 7
2009 tht projection 285 79 17 1 7 1 1 15 34 .296 .339 .453 38 87 23 .332 .272 .302 .362 .391 .016 3
2009 zips projection 285 80 18 2 8 1 2 14 31 .296 .335 .474 39 90 26 .335 .275 .305 .365 .395 .013 2
2009 cairo projection 285 79 18 2 8 1 2 13 33 .296 .332 .464 38 87 24 .329 .270 .299 .359 .389 .019 4
2009 average projection 285 79 17 2 7 2 1 14 33 .295 .334 .455 38 86 23 .328 .269 .299 .358 .388 .020 3
2009 actuals 285 84 16 1 12 3 2 13 20 .311 .340 .511 43 98 15 .348 .287 .318 .378 .409


A Cano rebound was one of the key things the Yankees needed in 2009 to move their way back towards the playoffs. The projection systems expected a rebound, but Cano's been a little better than expected, primarily because of a boost in his HR rate. He's hit 5 more HRs than expected on a rate basis. He still doesn't walk and he's still streaky, but he's clearly better than he showed last year and is showing it in 2009. CHONE is the closest here.

Derek Jeter
derek jeter PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 289 76 13 1 5 5 2 26 43 .294 .366 .415 38 86 26 .339 .279 .309 .369 .398 .015 3
2009 marcel projection 289 78 13 1 5 7 2 24 42 .303 .355 .428 38 86 26 .333 .273 .303 .362 .392 .022 6
2009 pecota projection 289 74 12 2 3 6 2 24 41 .288 .350 .383 34 77 17 .319 .261 .290 .349 .378 .035 7
2009 tht projection 289 78 14 1 4 6 2 23 41 .298 .365 .400 37 84 23 .335 .275 .305 .365 .394 .019 5
2009 zips projection 289 79 13 2 5 6 2 24 42 .302 .371 .421 39 88 28 .344 .284 .314 .374 .404 .010 1
2009 cairo projection 289 78 13 2 5 6 2 25 42 .303 .370 .427 39 89 28 .343 .283 .313 .373 .403 .011 2
2009 average projection 289 77 13 1 5 6 2 24 42 .298 .363 .412 38 85 25 .335 .276 .306 .365 .395 .019 4
2009 actuals 289 79 12 0 9 13 1 27 32 .305 .374 .456 44 99 17 .354 .294 .324 .384 .415


Yet another Yankee who's exceeding expectations to this point, Jeter is showing more pop, walking more, and striking out less this year. He's even stealing bases at a higher clip than expected. ZiPS is the closest here, but none of the projections are really all that close.

Alex Rodriguez
alex rodriguez PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 165 41 7 0 10 4 1 21 32 .294 .397 .564 30 119 50 .394 .312 .353 .436 .477 .042 7
2009 marcel projection 165 41 8 0 9 4 1 20 32 .289 .379 .545 29 113 44 .376 .295 .336 .417 .457 .024 2
2009 pecota projection 165 40 8 0 8 5 1 19 33 .282 .373 .508 27 106 37 .365 .284 .324 .405 .445 .013 1
2009 tht projection 165 41 8 0 10 4 1 20 32 .292 .392 .552 30 117 48 .388 .307 .347 .429 .470 .036 4
2009 zips projection 165 41 8 0 10 4 1 20 32 .292 .395 .549 30 117 48 .389 .307 .348 .430 .471 .037 5
2009 cairo projection 165 41 7 0 9 4 1 21 32 .296 .398 .553 30 118 49 .391 .309 .350 .432 .473 .039 6
2009 average projection 165 41 8 0 9 4 1 20 32 .291 .389 .545 29 115 46 .384 .302 .343 .425 .466 .032 5
2009 actuals 165 28 6 0 9 2 0 29 24 .212 .370 .462 25 97 7 .352 .272 .312 .392 .432


Obviously we have extenuating circumstances here, but Rodriguez hasn't been able to match his projections to this point. PECOTA finally gets one right(at least so far) after being dead last with the first four players.

Johnny Damon
johnny damon PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 279 69 12 1 7 9 2 28 37 .276 .351 .417 37 85 14 .330 .270 .300 .360 .391 .027 5
2009 marcel projection 279 68 13 1 7 11 3 28 39 .276 .348 .428 37 87 16 .329 .269 .299 .360 .390 .028 6
2009 pecota projection 279 69 13 2 6 11 3 28 39 .280 .353 .423 37 87 16 .331 .271 .301 .361 .392 .026 4
2009 tht projection 279 68 13 1 6 11 2 29 39 .273 .351 .412 37 85 14 .328 .268 .298 .359 .389 .029 7
2009 zips projection 279 73 13 2 7 11 3 28 35 .291 .363 .438 39 92 20 .342 .281 .312 .373 .403 .015 1
2009 cairo projection 279 70 13 2 7 10 3 28 38 .282 .354 .433 38 89 17 .335 .274 .304 .365 .395 .022 2
2009 average projection 279 70 13 2 7 10 3 28 38 .280 .353 .425 38 88 16 .333 .272 .302 .363 .393 .024 5
2009 actuals 279 70 16 2 14 5 0 27 43 .281 .351 .530 46 106 15 .357 .295 .326 .388 .419


Damon's yet another Yankee far exceeding expectations. When this many players are doing this, it's obvious the park is a big factor.

Melky Cabrera
melky cabrera PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 206 52 9 1 4 5 2 17 25 .280 .345 .402 25 80 14 .322 .252 .287 .357 .392 .000 1
2009 marcel projection 206 50 8 1 3 4 1 17 26 .271 .330 .383 23 74 8 .307 .238 .272 .341 .376 .015 4
2009 pecota projection 206 50 8 1 3 4 2 16 26 .267 .324 .376 22 71 5 .302 .233 .267 .336 .370 .020 7
2009 tht projection 206 51 8 1 3 4 1 16 26 .270 .331 .376 23 73 7 .308 .239 .274 .342 .377 .014 2
2009 zips projection 206 50 7 2 4 4 1 15 26 .265 .324 .383 23 72 6 .305 .236 .271 .339 .374 .017 5
2009 cairo projection 206 50 8 1 3 4 2 16 26 .268 .325 .382 23 72 6 .303 .235 .269 .338 .372 .019 6
2009 average projection 206 50 8 1 3 4 2 16 26 .270 .330 .384 23 73 8 .308 .239 .273 .342 .377 .014 5
2009 actuals 206 53 9 0 6 4 2 16 28 .286 .335 .432 26 82 5 .322 .252 .287 .357 .392


Although he's cooled off lately, Melky's still ahead of where he projected to be. Only CHONE saw him slugging .400 this season, and he's currently at .403.

Brett Gardner
brett gardner PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 152 35 6 2 1 10 3 16 31 .258 .341 .345 17 73 7 .305 .225 .265 .345 .385 .007 1
2009 marcel projection 152 35 7 1 3 7 1 12 28 .257 .311 .386 17 74 8 .295 .216 .255 .334 .374 .018 6
2009 pecota projection 152 33 6 2 1 10 3 17 30 .253 .334 .351 17 72 7 .300 .221 .261 .340 .380 .012 4
2009 tht projection 152 34 5 2 2 9 2 17 29 .251 .338 .349 17 74 9 .305 .225 .265 .345 .385 .008 2
2009 zips projection 152 34 4 2 1 12 2 16 31 .249 .331 .321 16 69 4 .294 .215 .255 .334 .373 .019 7
2009 cairo projection 152 34 5 2 1 5 1 16 30 .254 .338 .334 16 68 3 .301 .222 .262 .341 .381 .011 3
2009 average projection 152 34 5 2 1 9 2 16 30 .254 .332 .348 17 72 6 .300 .221 .260 .340 .380 .013 3
2009 actuals 152 36 4 2 2 14 2 15 19 .277 .342 .385 20 84 4 .313 .232 .272 .353 .393


He's gritty. He's gutty. He's fast. He's outhitting his projections. The one encouraging thing I see here is he's striking out at a significantly less frequent rate than projected, with no change in his walk rate. While he's probably still not quite good enough to be a starting CF, he's a good player to have around when you want to put a pinch runner in to steal second and third and then get stranded, and he's a decent glove in CF as well. Score another one for CHONE by a whisker.

Nick Swisher
nick swisher PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 254 53 11 0 11 1 0 36 56 .247 .360 .454 36 92 21 .345 .281 .313 .377 .409 .021 2
2009 marcel projection 254 52 11 0 10 1 1 35 55 .245 .357 .434 34 88 16 .337 .273 .305 .369 .400 .028 6
2009 pecota projection 254 52 11 1 11 1 1 34 58 .244 .352 .460 36 91 20 .340 .276 .308 .372 .403 .025 5
2009 tht projection 254 53 11 0 10 1 1 35 55 .247 .359 .447 35 91 19 .342 .278 .310 .374 .406 .023 3
2009 zips projection 254 55 12 1 11 1 1 35 58 .254 .366 .471 38 96 25 .352 .288 .320 .384 .416 .013 1
2009 cairo projection 254 51 12 1 10 1 1 35 56 .240 .353 .442 35 88 17 .336 .272 .304 .368 .399 .029 7
2009 average projection 254 53 11 1 11 1 1 35 56 .246 .358 .451 36 91 20 .342 .278 .310 .374 .406 .023 4
2009 actuals 254 49 15 1 12 0 0 46 56 .244 .382 .507 41 105 13 .365 .300 .333 .398 .430


After a brutal season on the South Side of Chicago, Swisher's rebounded nicely. The big difference here is he's walking more than he was projected to. His average is actually lower than any of the systems projected. ZiPS is the closest so far.

Hideki Matsui
hideki matsui PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
2009 chone projection 227 56 10 0 7 1 0 25 28 .277 .360 .443 31 90 11 .342 .275 .308 .376 .410 0.004 2
2009 marcel projection 227 55 10 1 7 2 1 24 30 .277 .358 .443 31 89 11 .340 .273 .307 .374 .408 0.002 1
2009 pecota projection 227 55 10 1 6 1 0 23 31 .275 .352 .417 29 83 5 .330 .263 .296 .363 .396 0.008 6
2009 tht projection 227 56 11 1 7 1 1 25 30 .279 .364 .441 31 90 12 .344 .276 .310 .378 .412 0.006 4
2009 zips projection 227 58 12 1 7 1 1 25 26 .290 .371 .476 34 97 19 .357 .288 .322 .391 .425 0.019 7
2009 cairo projection 227 56 11 1 7 1 0 24 29 .283 .361 .454 32 91 13 .344 .276 .310 .378 .412 0.006 5
2009 average projection 227 56 11 1 7 1 1 24 29 .280 .361 .446 31 90 12 .343 .275 .309 .377 .410 0.005 5
2009 actuals 227 49 12 1 10 0 0 26 36 .249 .344 .472 32 92 5 .338 .271 .304 .372 .405


Matsui's hitting a little worse than projected and as a DH his current line isn't much above replacement level (I set replacement level DH to league average hitting). He's not having a terrible season by any means though. When Xavier Nady returns I'd like to see Matsui rested a little more though.

I"m not going to get into the bench players since the small sample size of their playing time makes comparisons to projections basically useless.

Here's how it looks if you add up all the projections for all the players above compared to their actuals.

Totals PA H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650 BRAR/650 wOBA -2 Std -1 Std +1 Std +2 Std Diff Rank
chone 2294 569 108 11 71 38 11 238 362 .279 .360 .448 322 91 .343 .322 .332 .354 .364 0.013 2
marcel 2294 566 113 9 68 39 12 228 362 .280 .354 .446 317 90 .337 .316 .327 .348 .359 0.019 6
pecota 2294 553 107 11 62 41 13 228 366 .274 .349 .429 303 86 .331 .310 .320 .341 .352 0.025 7
tht 2294 571 112 10 67 39 12 232 357 .280 .360 .443 320 91 .342 .320 .331 .352 .363 0.014 4
zips 2294 576 113 12 69 43 14 232 356 .283 .362 .451 326 92 .345 .324 .335 .356 .367 0.011 1
cairo 2294 568 112 11 68 33 12 234 360 .281 .360 .449 322 91 .342 .321 .332 .353 .363 0.014 3
average 2294 560 112 11 71 38 12 234 367 .276 .356 .447 319 90 .340 .318 .329 .350 .361 0.016 5
actuals 2067 504 104 6 93 42 7 228 292 .280 .362 .500 324 102 .356 .333 .345 .367 .378 0.000


If you compare the team wOBA to the projected wOBA using the same playing time, we can see how the projections have fared overall.

Projection Diff
zips 0.011
chone 0.013
cairo 0.014
tht 0.014
marcel 0.019
pecota 0.025
average 0.016


In the specific ccase of the Yankees' main starting position players, ZiPS has been the closest. CHONE is second, and CAIRO comes in third, which makes me happy. One thing to note is that PECOTA is the worst by far. While there's still a lot of season left and things can change, can we put to notion that PECOTA is head and shoulders above any other projection system to rest now? I see little reason to think it's any better than any other system at this point.

So the good news is that the Yankee offense is playing much better than expected, whether it's due to the New Stadium or not.. Unless they're facing the dominant Nationals starting rotation or Fernando Nieve.
--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 48 Comments | - (34)



NY Daily News: Yankees still can’t overcome their fear of unknown

[I]n case you haven’t noticed, the Yankees have a long history of making no-name, mostly neophyte starting pitchers look like Cy Young for a day. If it wasn’t for Fernando Nieve they probably would’ve swept the Subway Series from the Mets last weekend, yet heaven only knows how many more starts Nieve, the spring training waiver pickup, will wind up getting with the Mets.

And this three-game series with the Nationals, culminating with Stammen outpitching Joba Chamberlain with 6-1/3 innings of six-hit, no-walk ball, epitomized this unfathomable futility on the Yankees’ part against unfamiliar and often mediocre or worse starting pitchers. Two losses to the Nats, after Thursday night’s humiliating 3-0 shutout, seven runs all told. Are you kidding?

WOE is back.  Grab a bucket.

--Posted at 9:36 am by Jonathan / 53 Comments | - (24)




Thursday, June 18, 2009

Nationals (17-46) @ Yankees (37-28), Thursday, June 18, 2009, 1:05pm **Game Chatter/Liveblog**

WSN: Craig Stammen (25, RHP, 0-2, 5.86) vs. NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 3-1, 3.84)

Lineups
Washington Nationals
C. Guzman, SS (.323/.341/.447)
N. Johnson, 1B (.311/.415/.439)
R. Zimmerman, 3B (.305/.380/.508)
A. Dunn, DH (.259/.395/.536)
A. Kearns, RF (.201/.335/.338)
C. Patterson, CF (.111/.111/.111)
W. Harris, LF (.223/.341/.350)
R. Belliard, 2B (.175/.221/.288)
W. Nieves, C (.262/.300/.298)

New York Yankees
B. Gardner, CF (.276/.354/.386)
J. Damon, LF (.286/.358/.539)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.284/.389/.614)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.219/.379/.477)
R. Cano, 2B (.308/.338/.511)
N. Swisher, RF (.239/.383/.503)
H. Matsui, DH (.249/.345/.477)
F. Cervelli, C (.298/.310/.333)
R. Pena, SS (.253/.300/.307)

A house money lineup in the rubber game of a three game series against the worst team in baseball!

They may not be able to get this one looking at the weather forecast, but if they do and the Yankees lose this game they should cancel the season.  I’m “working” from home so I may try to liveblog this one.

--Posted at 11:09 am by SG / 287 Comments | - (29)




Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Nationals (16-46) @ Yankees (37-27), Wednesday, June 17, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

WSN: John Lannan (24, LHP, 3-5, 3.51) vs. NYY: Chien-Ming Wang (29, RHP, 0-4, 14.34)

Lineups
Washington Nationals
C. Guzman, SS (.316/.335/.443)
N. Johnson, 1B (.311/.414/.431)
R. Zimmerman, 3B (.310/.385/.516)
A. Dunn, DH (.258/.393/.525)
E. Dukes, RF (.253/.316/.451)
C. Patterson, CF (.000/.000/.000)
J. Bard, C (.239/.301/.373)
W. Harris, LF (.222/.345/.354)
A. Hernandez, 2B (.277/.341/.358)

New York Yankees
J. Damon, LF (.282/.356/.523)
N. Swisher, RF (.244/.389/.513)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.283/.388/.618)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.224/.382/.488)
R. Cano, 2B (.309/.339/.504)
J. Posada, C (.289/.376/.563)
H. Matsui, DH (.253/.350/.484)
M. Cabrera, CF (291/.342/.440)
R. Pena, SS (264/.312/.319)

New Daddy Wang’s last stand?

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 4:48 pm by SG / 307 Comments | - (30)




Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Yankees.com: Cano’s four-hit night propels Yanks

NEW YORK—Robinson Cano broke out by tying a career high with four hits, including a seventh-inning double that brought around the go-ahead run, as the Yankees defeated the Nationals, 5-3, on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.

New York’s Major League-leading 22nd come-from-behind victory was spurred by a rally against former Yankees reliever Ron Villone. Mark Teixeira’s booming RBI double tied the game and Cano gave the Yankees the lead with a double over the head of center fielder Elijah Dukes before being thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple.

The late support made a winner of left-hander CC Sabathia, who was hit hard for only one mistake—a three-run home run off the bat of Anderson Hernandez in the fifth inning. Otherwise, Sabathia was in command, holding Washington to six hits over 7 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out two as he improved to 5-1 over his past eight starts.

Cano also made several nice plays in the field.  His four hits moved his season line to .309 /.339/.504.  He still doesn’t walk much, but that’s a solid line, especially out of second base.

I thought Sabathia pitched pretty well too, aside from one pitch to Anderson Hernandez that led to the three runs he gave up tonight.  Brian Bruney looked pretty good in his first game back too, hitting 96 mph three times versus Ryan Zimmerman before getting him to ground out on an 89 mph slider.  A healthy Bruney backed up by David Roberston is a good start in re-building the beleaguered Yankee middle relief. 

--Posted at 9:19 pm by SG / 103 Comments | - (25)



Nationals (16-45) @ Yankees (36-27), Tuesday, June 16, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

WSN: Shairon Martis (22, RHP, 5-1, 5.04) vs. NYY: C.C. Sabathia (28, LHP, 5-4, 3.68)

Lineups
Washington Nationals
C. Guzman, DH (.322/.341/.452)
N. Johnson, 1B (.315/.417/.437)
R. Zimmerman, 3B (.310/.387/.520)
E. Dukes, CF (.259/.324/.462)
A. Dunn, LF (.258/.396/.530)
A. Kearns, RF (.207/.344/.348)
A. Gonzalez, SS (.319/.377/.449)
W. Nieves, C (.259/.299/.296)
A. Hernandez, 2B (.269/.335/.327)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.310/.37/.463)
J. Damon, LF (.284/.358/.530)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.284/.387/.620)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.230/.386/.500)
R. Cano, 2B (.298/.330/.492)
J. Posada, C (.288/.372/.568)
H. Matsui, DH (.257/.352/.492)
N. Swisher, RF (.247/.392/.521)
M. Cabrera, CF (.294/.344/.444)

It’s the triumphant return of Nick Johnson, Wil Nieves, and Alberto Gonzalez!

The Nationals are on pace to win 42 games.  They’re probably not quite that bad, but If you can’t sweep them at home, you should disband your team.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 4:12 pm by SG / 214 Comments | - (26)



Yankee Run Values Through Games of JUne 15, 2009

I'll use the off day to run through the Yankees' context-neutral run values through Sunday's game. First up, the position players:

Name Team Pos PA AVG OBP SLG BRAR ZR RS UZR RS Avg RS RAR
Jeter, Derek NYA SS 284 .310 .378 .463 21 -1 2 0 22
Teixeira, Mark NYA 1B 271 .284 .387 .620 21 5 0 2 24
Damon, Johnny NYA LF 266 .284 .358 .530 18 0 -4 -2 16
Swisher, Nick NYA RF 242 .247 .392 .521 14 -4 -3 -4 10
Posada, Jorge NYA C 145 .288 .372 .568 13 -4 1 -2 11
Cano, Robinson NYA 2B 273 .298 .330 .492 11 -4 -3 -3 8
Rodriguez, Alex NYA 3B 153 .230 .386 .500 10 -3 -4 -3 6
Matsui, Hideki NYA DH 216 .257 .352 .492 9 0 0 0 9
Cabrera, Melky NYA CF 198 .294 .344 .444 7 3 0 2 9
Gardner, Brett NYA CF 149 .276 .354 .386 5 -1 5 2 7
Molina, Jose NYA C 49 .273 .333 .386 1 -2 0 -1 0
Nady, Xavier NYA RF 29 .286 .310 .429 0 0 -1 0 -1
Cervelli, Francisco NYA C 62 .298 .310 .333 -1 2 0 1 0
Cash, Kevin NYA C 28 .231 .250 .308 -1 -1 0 0 -1
Pena, Ramiro NYA 3B 77 .254 .303 .310 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3
Berroa, Angel NYA 3B 18 .125 .176 .125 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5
Ransom, Cody NYA 3B 53 .180 .226 .320 -3 -1 -2 -2 -5
Total 2513 .276 .355 .482 120 -13 -14 -14 106


BRAR Batting runs above replacement level (position and park-adjusted) using linear weights
ZR RS: Runs saved above average (using zone rating)
UZR RS: Runs saved above average (using Fan Graphs' UZR(ultimate zone rating)
Avg RS: Average of ZR RS and UZR RS
RAR: Runs above replacement level (BRAR + Avg RS)

And the pitchers:

Name Team Role IP H HR BB K RA FIP RSAR
Sabathia, CC NYA SP 93 76 7 29 67 3.97 3.77 15
Aceves, Alfredo NYA RP 26.7 24 4 6 24 2.70 3.99 8
Chamberlain, Joba L NYA SP 63.3 56 7 33 58 4.26 4.71 8
Burnett, A.J. NYA SP 80.7 76 12 41 74 4.69 5.01 6
Rivera, Mariano NYA RP 26.7 27 5 3 32 3.71 3.43 5
Pettitte, Andy NYA SP 79.7 94 10 33 50 4.86 4.82 5
Robertson, David A NYA RP 12 7 0 7 18 3.00 1.92 3
Bruney, Brian A NYA RP 9 3 0 2 13 3.00 0.94 2
Coke, Phil NYA RP 26.3 18 5 11 16 4.78 5.56 2
Swisher, Nick T NYA RP 1 1 0 1 1 0.00 4.17 1
Hughes, Phil NYA SP 40.3 41 7 17 39 5.36 5.13 0
Melancon, Mark D NYA RP 3.3 2 0 5 2 5.40 7.37 0
Tomko, Brett NYA RP 11.3 12 2 6 6 5.56 5.99 0
Ramirez, Edwar E NYA RP 17.3 18 6 15 16 5.71 8.42 -1
Veras, Jose NYA RP 25.7 23 5 14 18 5.96 6.40 -2
Albaladejo, Jonathan NYA RP 21 24 5 10 12 6.86 6.55 -4
Marte, Damaso NYA RP 5.3 9 3 3 6 15.19 9.92 -6
Claggett, Anthony NYA RP 1.7 9 2 2 2 43.20 19.97 -7
Wang, Chien-Ming NYA SP 21.3 45 5 12 17 14.34 6.45 -22
Total 565.6 565 85 250 471 5.16 5.16 13


RA: Runs allowed per nine innings (earned and unearned)
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher

Combined:

Name RAR
Teixeira, Mark 24
Jeter, Derek 22
Damon, Johnny 16
Sabathia, CC 15
Posada, Jorge 11
Swisher, Nick 10
Cabrera, Melky 9
Matsui, Hideki 9
Aceves, Alfredo 8
Cano, Robinson 8
Chamberlain, Joba L 8
Gardner, Brett 7
Rodriguez, Alex 6
Burnett, A.J. 6
Rivera, Mariano 5
Pettitte, Andy 5
Robertson, David A 3
Bruney, Brian A 2
Coke, Phil 2
Swisher, Nick T 1
Cervelli, Francisco 0
Hughes, Phil 0
Melancon, Mark D 0
Molina, Jose 0
Tomko, Brett 0
Ramirez, Edwar E -1
Nady, Xavier -1
Cash, Kevin -1
Veras, Jose -2
Pena, Ramiro -3
Albaladejo, Jonathan -4
Ransom, Cody -5
Berroa, Angel -5
Marte, Damaso -6
Claggett, Anthony -7
Wang, Chien-Ming -22
Total 119


As a team the Yankees are 119 runs above replacement level, which should translate to 12 wins above replacement. I set my replacement level at around a 60 win team level, so after 63 games a replacement level team would be around 23-40. The Yankees are 36-27, so they've been around 13 wins better. That one win difference is largely due to Chien-Ming Wang and Anthony Claggett giving up 16 runs in one game. It counts as two losses on virtual paper, but it was only one.

--Posted at 9:34 am by SG / 100 Comments | - (29)




Monday, June 15, 2009

Is Jorge Posada a Bad Game Caller?

One of the topics that has been coming up this season is Jorge Posada's pitch-calling and how it is a problem. Most of the analysis on this is based on comparing the Yankees' ERA with Posada behind the plate versus his backups.

Any analysis based on that premise is deeply flawed, because it assumes that the distribution of innings between Posada and his backups include the same pitchers in the same percentages, which is obviously not realistic or true. Also, ERA can be impacted by things that are not directly in control of the batter or pitcher.

That doesn't mean we can't look at the question, it just means that to do it right a little more rigorous work needs to be done.

In the 2008 Hardball Times Annual, Tango Tiger wrote an article titled With or Without You. The article was focused on Derek Jeter and basically looks at how the team did with or without Jeter for the period in question. Without getting into the Jeter/defense thing again, the methodology that Tango used is ingenious and can be applied in a lot of different ways, even if we must acknowledge it is slightly limited due to sample size issues and random noise. Retrosheet's play by play files allow us to do the WOWY studies for a lot of different criteria.

So let's take a look at Posada versus his backups using the WOWY methodolgy. Here are the steps that I followed to do this.

1) Pull in all Yankee Retrosheet play by play data from 2000-2008. Although I have the data to go back past that, I think nine years is enough data, especially if we are trying to ascertain that there is a skill component here. It's probably folly to assume that a player's skill remains static in any area over nine seasons, much less more than that. Since 2009 play by play data is not availabe in an easily parseable format right now, I can't look at that.

2) Separate the data into batters faced with Posada catching versus everyone else.

3) MATCHING INNINGS. This is the key part of this analysis. If you don't ensure that you are weighing the contributions of each pitcher similarly, you are not controlling for possible selective bias, like a good pitcher having a personal catcher. To match innings, I simply pro-rated the larger sample to the smaller sample. For example, Mike Mussina faced 998 batters without Posada catching and 2183 with him, so Mussina's stats for both splits get pro-rated to 998 batters.

4) Add it all up and see what comes out.

First, here are the straight totals before matching innings. I am looking at the data in terms of how opposing hitters have done versus the Yankee pitchers, so the numbers you see are the numbers they allowed to hitters.

Split BF AVG OBP SLG BR/650 wOBA CERA FIP
Posada 20339 .261 .326 .410 76 .330 4.14 4.27
Others 10482 .265 .327 .412 76 .330 4.17 4.14


BF: Batters faced
wOBA: Weighted on base average, a rate version of linear weights scaled to OBP
CERA: Component ERA (31 times OBP times SLG). This does not regress BABIP at all.
FIP: Fielding independent pitching. This regresses BABIP to league average and focuses on the three true outcomes that a pitcher has the most control over, HRs, BBs/HBPs, and Ks.

Here are the splits with Posada and others for every pitcher who has pitched for the Yankees from 2000-2008.

Posada Others
pitcher PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA CERA FIP PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA CERA FIP
aceva001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 119 .229 .294 .385 .299 3.51 4.93
albaj001 7 .000 .143 .000 .103 0.00 4.65 52 .326 .385 .522 .406 6.22 3.39
beamt002 44 .390 .455 .829 .519 11.69 8.88 39 .278 .359 .583 .383 6.49 4.32
beanc001 5 .500 .600 .750 .572 13.95 7.55 5 .000 .400 .000 .294 0.00 7.07
britc001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 103 .301 .379 .570 .407 6.69 5.79
browk001 460 .254 .311 .405 .318 3.90 4.24 88 .282 .307 .447 .325 4.25 3.96
brunb001 36 .143 .333 .250 .290 2.58 4.53 190 .170 .279 .248 .256 2.15 3.43
chacs001 253 .315 .411 .569 .428 7.26 6.64 53 .188 .264 .250 .245 2.05 4.50
chamj002 159 .248 .321 .317 .285 3.15 2.74 256 .222 .301 .300 .277 2.80 2.55
choar001 122 .196 .328 .373 .325 3.79 5.57 52 .267 .365 .400 .363 4.53 3.90
clemr001 1533 .241 .316 .390 .321 3.82 3.95 98 .264 .357 .402 .346 4.45 4.03
cokep001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 51 .163 .196 .204 .201 1.24 1.64
coned001 339 .299 .401 .472 .389 5.87 5.42 395 .301 .372 .509 .382 5.87 5.55
contj002 252 .262 .341 .431 .352 4.56 5.41 168 .231 .327 .510 .369 5.18 6.72
depaj002 38 .265 .342 .529 .371 5.61 7.14 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00
dingc001 37 .382 .432 .441 .393 5.91 3.34 14 .357 .357 .571 .396 6.33 4.81
doteo001 30 .360 .467 .760 .505 10.99 8.82 28 .391 .536 .478 .442 7.94 5.48
eined001 33 .207 .303 .345 .293 3.24 6.10 24 .417 .417 .417 .413 5.38 2.37
erdot001 102 .315 .382 .467 .374 5.54 4.30 13 .200 .385 .200 .305 2.38 5.01
erics001 24 .316 .458 .684 .478 9.72 12.35 31 .259 .387 .296 .315 3.56 3.96
farnk001 249 .232 .309 .379 .305 3.64 3.89 227 .259 .330 .459 .341 4.70 5.03
fordb002 46 .368 .478 .632 .474 9.36 6.46 6 .000 .333 .000 .245 0.00 7.55
giesd001 70 .169 .229 .246 .231 1.74 3.09 112 .272 .339 .408 .334 4.29 4.17
goodd001 222 .270 .324 .451 .342 4.53 4.79 48 .244 .313 .333 .299 3.23 4.56
gordt001 273 .169 .223 .276 .219 1.91 2.49 70 .200 .271 .292 .264 2.46 2.12
grama001 23 .619 .652 1.000 .689 20.22 3.93 7 .143 .143 .571 .410 2.53 7.55
grimj001 313 .273 .351 .399 .342 4.35 4.66 112 .242 .330 .444 .355 4.55 5.56
halsb001 61 .288 .393 .442 .388 5.39 4.61 92 .310 .359 .488 .376 5.43 4.83
hawkl001 46 .350 .413 .475 .390 6.08 6.22 125 .239 .312 .342 .281 3.31 3.40
henns001 26 .304 .385 .478 .380 5.70 6.10 18 .267 .389 .533 .397 6.43 6.89
heref001 136 .252 .338 .420 .341 4.41 5.11 45 .359 .444 .564 .437 7.77 5.87
herna002 13 .455 .538 .545 .483 9.10 2.23 21 .294 .429 .765 .484 10.16 9.97
herno001 1571 .239 .299 .413 .318 3.83 4.50 200 .247 .310 .344 .294 3.31 3.80
hitcs001 174 .319 .385 .419 .365 5.00 3.50 14 .429 .429 .929 .626 12.34 9.73
hughp001 20 .400 .550 .467 .469 7.96 6.74 139 .291 .345 .449 .346 4.80 4.18
igawk001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 24 .542 .542 .708 .544 11.89 3.20
johnr005 719 .234 .299 .394 .308 3.65 4.37 144 .304 .340 .489 .369 5.16 4.07
karsj001 117 .269 .333 .463 .341 4.78 5.22 60 .186 .200 .322 .223 2.00 4.47
karss001 340 .242 .309 .381 .293 3.64 3.83 60 .273 .350 .291 .295 3.16 2.31
keisr001 42 .353 .476 .529 .444 7.82 7.29 10 .400 .400 .600 .428 7.44 0.30
kenni001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 194 .301 .397 .506 .402 6.23 5.52
knigb001 31 .370 .452 .593 .450 8.30 5.76 10 .111 .200 .444 .267 2.76 7.55
lidlc001 36 .250 .333 .344 .310 3.55 4.77 165 .279 .358 .544 .391 6.03 6.76
liebj001 511 .308 .331 .454 .352 4.65 4.05 230 .281 .291 .411 .315 3.71 3.38
lillt001 176 .256 .341 .500 .368 5.28 5.69 169 .156 .231 .279 .242 2.00 3.07
loaie001 139 .292 .388 .433 .368 5.22 5.42 71 .406 .493 .750 .533 11.46 7.93
marss001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 6 .333 .333 .500 .357 5.17 3.20
martd004 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 81 .200 .309 .314 .279 3.01 2.94
mendr001 607 .266 .316 .406 .331 3.98 4.29 53 .327 .340 .481 .372 5.06 3.20
mussm001 2195 .252 .294 .403 .312 3.67 3.81 999 .278 .312 .417 .325 4.04 3.43
myerm001 96 .291 .385 .465 .374 5.56 5.15 33 .129 .182 .161 .163 0.91 2.13
neagd001 336 .246 .304 .433 .323 4.07 5.15 73 .364 .411 .561 .407 7.14 5.81
nelsj001 241 .166 .290 .231 .264 2.08 3.34 59 .220 .339 .300 .305 3.15 4.04
nitkc001 41 .400 .488 .600 .474 9.07 6.38 24 .200 .333 .300 .300 3.10 3.20
ohler001 48 .372 .458 .558 .433 7.93 6.10 132 .283 .364 .458 .373 5.17 4.65
osbod001 29 .269 .345 .423 .341 4.52 4.73 48 .409 .458 .659 .496 9.36 6.55
padij001 47 .372 .426 .512 .412 6.75 4.81 3 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 3.20
patts001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 7 .200 .429 .600 .429 7.97 4.65
pavac001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 158 .291 .348 .454 .360 4.90 5.50
petta001 1496 .277 .339 .408 .346 4.29 4.01 845 .277 .321 .382 .316 3.80 3.36
pitcher 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00
ponss001 39 .424 .513 .879 .568 13.97 12.05 398 .308 .374 .469 .376 5.45 5.01
prinb001 89 .295 .382 .500 .383 5.92 5.41 35 .161 .257 .387 .281 3.09 5.88
procs001 346 .226 .298 .374 .304 3.45 4.10 188 .269 .340 .439 .345 4.63 4.46
quanp001 325 .313 .351 .428 .340 4.66 3.68 91 .306 .374 .376 .320 4.36 3.25
ramie003 37 .188 .297 .469 .328 4.32 5.32 192 .222 .318 .368 .317 3.63 3.72
rasnd001 145 .295 .352 .477 .371 5.20 4.59 450 .279 .338 .434 .346 4.54 4.76
rivem002 979 .213 .272 .284 .258 2.40 2.92 376 .185 .215 .251 .223 1.68 2.42
robed002 14 .000 .214 .000 .103 0.00 1.75 115 .279 .357 .385 .329 4.25 3.66
sanch001 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00 8 .167 .375 .167 .293 1.94 5.52
smala001 109 .357 .431 .663 .491 8.87 8.08 23 .318 .348 .682 .425 7.35 7.65
smitm006 29 .083 .276 .083 .186 0.71 3.86 16 .143 .250 .143 .203 1.11 2.72
stanm003 523 .250 .315 .347 .300 3.39 3.23 93 .259 .323 .412 .323 4.12 4.21
sturt001 324 .278 .367 .489 .376 5.57 5.59 66 .217 .288 .333 .282 2.97 2.95
tessj001 23 .286 .391 .619 .403 7.51 8.23 12 .250 .250 .500 .389 3.88 6.10
thurm002 47 .318 .340 .523 .364 5.52 3.50 105 .330 .400 .426 .373 5.28 3.81
trabb001 18 .400 .500 .667 .497 10.33 9.00 61 .304 .377 .446 .356 5.22 4.91
vazqj001 716 .263 .325 .453 .343 4.57 4.93 129 .195 .256 .347 .272 2.76 4.62
veraj001 66 .214 .333 .339 .299 3.51 5.29 227 .235 .330 .412 .315 4.22 3.97
villr001 237 .246 .359 .399 .331 4.44 4.63 127 .229 .354 .358 .319 3.93 4.53
wangc001 909 .273 .325 .361 .315 3.63 3.98 374 .265 .321 .378 .314 3.76 3.71
watsa001 97 .303 .433 .513 .422 6.89 7.81 20 .368 .400 .737 .473 9.14 7.31
weavj002 256 .288 .328 .498 .367 5.07 4.53 65 .177 .231 .242 .207 1.73 3.65
welld001 626 .249 .297 .383 .310 3.53 3.82 241 .281 .307 .463 .342 4.41 4.10
westj001 28 .520 .607 .840 .593 15.81 8.03 9 .222 .222 .333 .238 2.30 3.20
whitg001 55 .385 .436 .596 .434 8.06 5.01 47 .295 .383 .455 .332 5.40 3.68
wilsk001 27 .360 .407 .760 .483 9.60 10.63 15 .385 .467 .692 .489 10.02 7.19
wrigj002 295 .310 .397 .426 .379 5.24 3.59 326 .260 .319 .405 .329 4.01 4.95
yarne001 16 .417 .563 .750 .550 13.08 12.73 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0.00 0.00


Matching those innings up, we get the following totals.

Posada Others
wOBA CERA FIP wOBA CERA FIP
.332 4.36 4.34 .324 4.13 4.07


There's a difference there. The next question we have to ask is if the difference is statistically significant. I'm just going to look at wOBA.

Posada Others
+2 Std .344 .336
+1 Std .338 .330
Mean .332 .324
-1 Std .326 .318
-2 Std .321 .313


Posada's actual performance is a little worse than one standard deviation from his backups. The difference in runs given a wOBA of .332 vs. .324 over a full team season (4100 PA outs) is in the area of 30 runs. That's pretty significant. I'm not sure I trust these numbers based on Keith Woolner's far more exhaustive study that showed game-calling was NOT a statistically significant skill. But that's what these numbers say.

I wouldn't call this proof that Posada is a bad game-caller, but it is possible evidence that he may be worse than average in that regard.
--Posted at 12:31 am by SG / 110 Comments | - (44)




Sunday, June 14, 2009

Yankees.com: With nine runs off Santana, Yanks roll

Santana allowed a career-high nine runs and exited with no outs in the fourth inning as the Yankees took two of three games in the weekend series, highlighting their victory by sending 12 men to the plate in a nine-run fourth inning.

The Yankees had put up four runs to take an early lead against Santana in the second inning, and the left-hander’s luck only soured in the fourth. Hideki Matsui belted a two-run homer and Derek Jeter chased Santana with a single past diving shortstop Alex Cora—one of his four hits—to score the seventh run. Catcher Francisco Cervelli collected three hits, pushing his average above .300.

You just can’t predict baseball, Susan.

--Posted at 5:08 pm by Jonathan / 38 Comments | - (26)



Mets (32-28) @ Yankees (35-27), Sunday, June 14, 2009, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**

NYM: J. Santana (8-3, 2.39 ERA) NYY: A. Burnett (4-3, 4.89 ERA)

Lineups:
New York Mets
A. Cora, SS (.271/.376/.365)
F. Martinez, LF (.234/.333/.319)
C. Beltran, CF (.344/.438/.561)
D. Wright, 3B (.365/.460/.532)
R. Church, RF (.278/.348/.389)
G. Sheffield, DH (.261/.381/.478)
D. Murphy, 1B (.241/.321/.358)
B. Schneider, C (.200/.310/.286)
L. Castillo, 2B (.281/.376/.337)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.299/.369/.454)
J. Damon, LF (.280/.354/.526)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.284/.390/.627)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.237/.396/.517)
R. Cano, 2B (.291/.325/.469)
N. Swisher, RF (.251/.391/.529)
H. Matsui, DH (.255/.346/.478)
M. Cabrera, CF (.290/.337/.432)
F. Cervelli, C (.269/.283/.308)

But for Willy Aybar and Luis Castillo, the Yankees would have dropped 7 of their last 8.
But they’re facing some Santana guy today so all’s good.

--Posted at 10:42 am by Jonathan / 228 Comments | - (27)




Saturday, June 13, 2009

Mets (31-28) @ Yankees (35-26), Saturday, June 13, 2009, 4:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYM:Fernando Nieve (27, RHP, 0-0, 0.00) vs. NYY:Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 6-2, 4.22)

Lineups
New York Mets
L. Castillo, 2B - .277/.376/.335
A. Cora, SS - .275/.385/.375
C. Beltran, CF - .343/.439/.565
D. Wright, 3B - .364/.461/.530
G. Sheffield, DH - .256/.381/.457
F. Tatis, 1B - .261/.339/.387
R. Church, RF - .271/.344/.379
O. Santos, C - .274/.296/.425
F. Martinez, LF - .186/.300/.279

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS - .300/.371/.457
J. Damon, LF - .285/.359/.535
M. Teixeira, 1B - .290/.395/.638
A. Rodriguez, 3B - .233/.386/.491
R. Cano, 2B - .296/.330/.476
J. Posada, C - .298/.383/.587
H. Matsui, DH - .260/.348/.486
M. Cabrera, RF - .291/.339/.436
B. Gardner, CF - .266/.343/.379

In the entire history of baseball, no team has ever won a game after winning a game where Luis Castillo dropped a two-out 9th inning popup that would have clinched a loss.  So the Yankees are on the precipice of making history if they can somehow win today.  Anytime, you can make history, it’s pretty damn important.  Is it the most important thing ever?  I’m going to say it is.

Go Yankees.

It looks like the storm will eventually pass through.  So hopefully there is just a delay.

--Posted at 2:25 pm by SG / 161 Comments | - (36)




Friday, June 12, 2009

MLB.com: Yankees walk off on Mets’ two-run error

NEW YORK—Luis Castillo dropped a sky-high Alex Rodriguez popup, allowing two runs to score with two outs in the ninth inning as the Yankees walked away with a Subway Series thriller in the first crosstown game played at the new Yankee Stadium, posting a 9-8 victory over the Mets on Friday.

Trailing, 8-7, after David Wright’s big RBI double in the eighth inning off Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter logged a one-out single and stole second while pinch-hitter Johnny Damon struck out against closer Francisco Rodriguez.

Mark Teixeira looked at three balls before the Mets called for the fourth intentionally, and Rodriguez’s popup fell out of Castillo’s glove in right-center field as the tying and winning runs came home safely.

The Yankees, uncomfortable with having strayed too far from .500, were working to continue the correction on Friday night.  Luis Castillo, however, had other plans.

--Posted at 10:25 pm by Jonathan / 47 Comments | - (36)



Mets (31-27) @ Yankees (34-26), Friday, June 12, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

NYM: Livan Hernandez (34, RHP, 5-1, 3.88) vs. NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 3-1, 3.79)

Lineups
New York Mets
A. Cora, SS (.286/.385/.390)
F. Martinez, LF (.205/.311/.308)
C. Beltran, CF (.341/.431/.561)
D. Wright, 3B (.362/.458/.526)
R. Church, RF (.272/.342/.575)
G. Sheffield, DH (.250/.380/.427)
D. Murphy, 1B (.242/.324/.363)
B. Schneider, C (.212/.308/.303)
L. Castillo, 2B (.281/.373/.339)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.298/.370/.446)
N. Swisher, RF (.255/.394/.538)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.289/.391/.628)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.234/.393/.495)
R. Cano, 2B (.293/.327/.463)
J. Posada, C (.297/.380/.585)
H. Matsui, DH (.260/.350/.575)
M. Cabrera, LF (.293/.346/.446)
B. Gardner, CF (.267/.346/.383)

No team has ever been swept by Boston at Boston and then lost the first game of a series at home against the Mets and finished the season with a winning record EVER (I’m fairly certain).  This is bigger than a game.  This is BY FAR the most important thing of all time.  While any chance at the division is pretty clearly over (I think that no team has ever come back from a two game deficit in the division with only 102 games left), the wild card is still in play.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 4:20 pm by SG / 310 Comments | - (73)



NY Times(Kepner): Wang’s Time in Rotation May Be Running Short

The struggling Chien-Ming Wang will get another start for the Yankees, but possibly no more after that. Manager Joe Girardi said he told Wang that the Yankees expected positive results from him next Wednesday against the Washington Nationals, with the underlying message that his position in the rotation would be on the line.

I’d rather discuss this than the Yankees vs. Red Sox.

--Posted at 11:00 am by SG / 81 Comments | - (42)




Thursday, June 11, 2009

Yankees (34-25) @ Red Sox (35-24), Thursday, June 11, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: C. Sabathia (5-3, 3.56 ERA) Bos: B. Penny (5-2, 5.85 ERA)

Lineups:
Boston’s Bitch
D. Jeter, SS - .295/.370/.447
J. Damon, LF - .291/.364/.547
M. Teixeira, 1B - .296/.399/.643
A. Rodriguez, 3B - .231/.390/.491
R. Cano, 2B - .293/.328/.467
N. Swisher, RF - .256/.396/.539
H. Matsui, DH - .253/.342/.471
M. Cabrera, CF - .293/.343/.445
F. Cervelli, C - .271/.286/.292

Boston Red Sox
D. Pedroia, 2B - .310/.404/.412
J. Drew, RF - .262/.390/.494
K. Youkilis, 1B - .350/.472/.637
J. Bay, LF - .278/.402/.598
M. Lowell, 3B - .296/.331/.509
D. Ortiz, DH - .196/.291/.319
J. Varitek, C - .242/.335/.510
R. Baldelli, CF - .259/.310/.426
N. Green, SS - .278/.336/.421

The weather isn’t too promising, unlike the pitching matchup.

--Posted at 4:35 pm by Jonathan / 457 Comments | - (42)



MLB.com: Sox do it all to stay perfect vs. Yanks

Now more than one-third of the way through their head-to-head combat with New York, Boston is 7-0 this season against its rival. In other words, that dominance is solely responsible for the Red Sox holding a mere one-game lead against the Yankees in the American League East.

Stretching back to last Sept. 28, the Sox have taken eight in a row against the Bronx Bombers for the first time since 1912.

At least Mo is rested.  Sabathia goes tomorrow which will hopefully result in that one win SG predicted.

--Posted at 12:29 am by Jonathan / 105 Comments | - (38)




Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Yankees (34-24) @ Red Sox (34-24), Wednesday, June 10, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: C. Wang (0-3, 14.46 ERA) Bos: T. Wakefield (7-3, 4.50 ERA)

Lineups:
Mrs. Red Sox
D. Jeter, SS (.302/.377/.457)
J. Damon, LF (.294/.367/.541)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.284/.391/.615)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.238/.389/.505)
R. Cano, 2B (.300/.335/.477)
J. Posada, C (.292/.379/.566)
H. Matsui, DH (.246/.333/.462)
N. Swisher, RF (.253/.390/.539)
M. Cabrera, CF (.292/.343/.447)

Boston Red Sox
D. Pedroia, 2B (.312/.408/.412)
J. Drew, RF (.259/.380/.482)
K. Youkilis, 1B (.353/.474/.627)
J. Bay, LF (.278/.404/.605)
M. Lowell, 3B (.296/.332/.500)
D. Ortiz, DH (.198/.288/.322)
M. Kotsay, CF (.300/.364/.600)
N. Green, SS (.279/.338/.426)
G. Kottaras, C (.188/.255/.292)

No team has ever started a season 0-7 against a division rival and gone on to win the World Series.  OK, that’s POOMA.  But, it’s probably true - which makes this the most important game in the history of New York Yankees baseball.
Or, whatever.

--Posted at 5:20 pm by Jonathan / 467 Comments | - (37)



Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B

Player G IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP ERA FIP
Pitcher A 8 56.3 44 18 16 6 21 1 53 1 2.56 3.87
Pitcher B 2 7.7 13 13 11 3 8 0 4 1 12.91 11.26
--Posted at 10:43 am by SG / 95 Comments | - (29)



Yankees.com: Burnett no help as Yankees fall into tie

Burnett allowed five runs (three earned) in just 2 2/3 innings and suffered his first career defeat against Boston, dropping a 7-0 decision on Tuesday at Fenway Park.

“It’s disappointing to everybody,” Burnett said. “I think the toughest thing is you come out of a game like that and you’ve got to look all of those guys in the face when you come in. That’s a feeling you don’t want to have.”

The loss was the Yankees’ sixth in six games this season against the Red Sox, giving both teams even records at 34-24 and equal shares of first place in the American League East with two games remaining in this midweek rivalry series.

Was it really too much to ask Burnett to keep the Yankees in the game for at least 3 innings?  Then again, I guess it was too much to ask the Yankee offense to muster more than 2 hits all night.

Also, the Yankees took Slade Heathcott with their 29th pick overall in the draft.

--Posted at 12:56 am by Jonathan / 39 Comments | - (24)




Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Yankees (34-23) @ Red Sox (33-24), Tuesday, June 9, 2009, 7:10pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: A. Burnett (4-2, 4.69 ERA) Bos: J. Beckett (6-2, 4.09 ERA)

Lineups:
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS - .306/.379/.463
J. Damon, DH - .299/.373/.551
M. Teixeira, 1B - .286/.389/.621
A. Rodriguez, 3B - .248/.402/ .525
R. Cano, 2B - .300/.336/.481
J. Posada, C - .297/.380/.577
N. Swisher, LF - .257/.395/.549
M. Cabrera, RF - .297/.349/.456
B. Gardner, CF - .265/.346/.385

Boston Red Sox
D. Pedroia, 2B - .318/.412/.419
J. Drew, RF - .261/.385/.485
K. Youkilis, 1B - .349/.470/.631
J. Bay, LF - .277/.400/.599
M. Lowell, 3B - .296/.326/.502
D. Ortiz, DH - .197/.288/.308
J. Varitek, C - .247/.337/.519
M. Kotsay, CF - .286/.286/.714
N. Green, SS - .271/.333/.390

Will this be the one win SG predicted?
Go Yanks.

--Posted at 5:56 pm by Jonathan / 280 Comments | - (25)




Monday, June 8, 2009

MLB.com: Yankees power up, pound Rays

NEW YORK—Shipping up to Boston to renew their most intense rivalry, the Yankees left town in style, hitting four home runs to power a 5-3 victory over the Rays on Monday at Yankee Stadium.

Tampa Bay starter Andy Sonnanstine served up all four of the round-trippers. Johnny Damon’s solo blast put the Yankees ahead in the sixth inning after Mark Teixeira hit a solo shot in the first inning and Nick Swisher clubbed a two-run shot in the second.

Now they will only be two games back of first going into the weekend.

--Posted at 9:10 pm by Jonathan / 128 Comments | - (31)



Rays (29-29) @ Yankees (33-23), Monday, June 8, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

TB: A. Sonnanstine (4-5, 7.07 ERA) NYY: A. Pettitte (5-2, 4.33 ERA)

Lineups:
Rays
B.J. Upton cf
C. Crawford lf
E. Longoria 3b
C. Pena 1b
B. Zobrist ss
W. Aybar 2b
J. Dillon dh
G. Kapler rf
M. Hernandez c

Yankees
D. Jeter ss
J. Damon lf
M. Teixeira 1b
A. Rodriguez 3b
R. Cano 2b
J. Posada c
H. Matsui dh
N. Swisher rf
M. Cabrera cf

Our Andy is better than your Andy.
Go Yanks.

--Posted at 5:57 pm by Jonathan / 233 Comments | - (35)



NY Post: SANDMAN LIGHTS OUT AGAIN DAY AFTER NIGHTMARE FLOP

“We had never seen him give up two homers in a row,” Girardi had said before the game. “We know he’s coming off surgery and thought it would take some time, but before yesterday he had a pretty decent stretch.

“His velocity is going up. We’re seeing 93 [mph] now where we didn’t two or three weeks ago.”

I’m not worried about Mo.  Even if he’s not as good as he used to be, he’s still one of the best closers in baseball.

I’m traveling this week and probably won’t be able to post much, but Jonathan will keep the site updated. 

--Posted at 9:40 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (39)




Sunday, June 7, 2009

MLB.com: Yankees rally past Rays in eighth

Trailing by two runs to begin the inning, the Yankees rallied to score three off a beleaguered Rays bullpen to come away with a 4-3 victory in front of 46,465. Hideki Matsui drove in the eventual winning run with a fielder’s-choice groundout off reliever J.P. Howell.

I guess it makes up for yesterday’s bad loss.

--Posted at 4:42 pm by Jonathan / 70 Comments | - (37)



Rays (29-28) @ Yankees (32-23), Sunday, June 7, 2009, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**

TBR: Matt Garza (25, RHP, 4-4, 3.67) vs. NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 3-1, 3.71)

Lineups
Tampa Bay Rays
TBA

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.312/.387/.462)
J. Damon, LF (.296/.373/.539)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.286/.390/.618)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.253/.403/.547)
R. Cano, 2B (.304/.338/.489)
J. Posada, C (.308/.393/.606)
H. Matsui, DH (.255/.340/.479)
N. Swisher, RF (.247/.385/.512)
M. Cabrera, CF (.309/.358/.474)

After yesteday’s disaster, this is a must-win.  Go Yankees.

--Posted at 10:47 am by SG / 271 Comments | - (33)




Saturday, June 6, 2009

Rays (28-28) @ Yankees (32-22), Saturday, June 6, 2009, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**

TB: D. Price (1-0, 3.00 ERA) NYY: C. Sabathia (5-3, 3.46 ERA)

Lineups:
Tampa Bay Rays
B. Upton, CF (.218/.314/.325)
C. Crawford, LF (.327/.391/.457)
W. Aybar, 3B (.252/.369/.393)
C. Pena, 1B (.226/.366/.549)
B. Zobrist, 2B (.296/.410/.644)
J. Dillon, DH (.333/.375/.533)
D. Navarro, C (.208/.235/.302)
G. Kapler, RF (.176/.271/.270)
R. Brignac, SS (.233/.258/.367)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.313/.387/.465)
J. Damon, LF (.297/.373/.540)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.284/.390/.603)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.250/.395/.522)
J. Posada, DH (.320/.402/.630)
R. Cano, 2B (.305/.336/.493)
N. Swisher, RF (.251/.388/.521)
M. Cabrera, CF (.311/.360/.473)
F. Cervelli, C (.283/.298/.304)

Both these starters are really good.  I don’t understand why they aren’t setup men.

--Posted at 11:18 am by Jonathan / 177 Comments | - (30)




Thursday, June 4, 2009

Yankees.com: Melky, Yanks pick up Wang

NEW YORK—Whatever concern the Yankees had about Chien-Ming Wang’s effectiveness as a starting pitcher had not even remotely faded by the fifth inning Thursday, at which point Wang’s Yankees were losing by four runs. His forgettable return to the rotation was nearly complete.

But the Yankees rallied and Melky Cabrera provided some more of his late-inning dramatics, saving Wang with a tie-breaking two-run homer that led to an 8-6 win over the Rangers.

I am actually encouraged by what I saw out of Wang today.  His velocity was pretty good and his sinker was moving pretty well.  He struggled after the second, but I think that’s partially due to the fact that he hasn’t built up his stamina yet.  Granted, he did throw some long games during rehab, but pitching in the majors is surely more stressful.

As for Melky, what can I say?  He’s the king of clutch apparently.

--Posted at 3:43 pm by SG / 158 Comments | - (35)



Rangers (31-21) @ Yankees (31-22), Thursday, June 4, 2009, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**

Tex: B. McCarthy (5-2, 4.35 ERA) NYY: C. Wang (0-3, 16.07 ERA)

Lineups:
Texas Rangers
I. Kinsler, 2B (.282/.367/.545)
M. Young, 3B (.332/.379/.530)
H. Blalock, DH (.258/.293/.558)
N. Cruz, RF (.297/.365/.600)
D. Murphy, LF (.240/.347/.350)
M. Byrd, CF (.295/.316/.476)
C. Davis, 1B (.191/.247/.422)
T. Teagarden, C (.256/.347/.302)
E. Andrus, SS (.285/.333/.424)

New York Yankees
J. Damon, LF (.296/.371/.528)
N. Swisher, RF (.244/.380/.512)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.279/.388/.595)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.250/.400/.534)
R. Cano, 2B (.305/.333/.495)
H. Matsui, DH (.261/.344/.491)
M. Cabrera, CF (.313/.363/.458)
F. Cervelli, C (.286/.302/.310)
R. Pena, SS (.239/.282/.299)

Wang has been inserted into the rotation.  Go Yanks.

--Posted at 11:35 am by Jonathan / 366 Comments | - (40)



AL Catcher Defense Through Games of June 3, 2009

Here's a look at how I have AL catchers defensive value ranked through yesterday. Bear in mind that catcher defensive numbers are going to be impacted by how well their pitching staff holds runners amongst other things.

Year Last First Tm Lg Inn TE FE WP+PB SB CS CS% RS RS/120
2009 Laird Gerald DET AL 353 0 0 13 15 9 38% 6 19
2009 Suzuki Kurt K OAK AL 387 1 0 10 22 9 29% 5 15
2009 Johjima Kenji SEA AL 208 1 0 7 13 9 41% 4 19
2009 Shoppach Kelly B CLE AL 259 0 0 8 17 7 29% 3 14
2009 Saltalamacchia Jarrod S TEX AL 350 1 0 11 24 8 25% 3 9
2009 Barajas Rod TOR AL 369 4 0 14 23 10 30% 2 6
2009 Hernandez Michel TB AL 113 0 0 2 5 2 29% 2 21
2009 Mauer Joe MIN AL 194 0 0 7 11 4 27% 2 12
2009 Cervelli Francisco NYA AL 117 0 0 3 9 5 36% 2 19
2009 Wieters Matt BAL AL 43 0 0 0 2 1 33% 1 29
2009 Chavez Raul TOR AL 85 1 0 2 7 4 36% 1 13
2009 Powell Landon OAK AL 78 1 0 2 2 0 0% 1 9
2009 Pena Brayan E KC AL 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 0 34
2009 Zaun Gregg BAL AL 303 4 0 7 26 7 21% 0 0
2009 Castro Ramon R CHA AL 9 0 0 0 1 0 0% 0 -4
2009 Teagarden Taylor H TEX AL 114 2 0 4 6 1 14% 0 -1
2009 Miller Corky CHA AL 88 0 0 3 8 1 11% 0 -4
2009 Quiroz Guillermo A SEA AL 9 0 0 1 1 0 0% 0 -42
2009 Johnson Rob SEA AL 244 0 1 17 16 6 27% 0 -2
2009 Riggans Shawn W TB AL 9 1 0 0 1 0 0% -1 -64
2009 Burke Jamie SEA AL 26 0 0 4 2 1 33% -1 -26
2009 Barrett Michael TOR AL 39 0 0 4 2 0 0% -1 -18
2009 Cash Kevin NYA AL 67 0 0 3 9 2 18% -1 -13
2009 Treanor Matt A DET AL 32 0 0 2 4 0 0% -1 -30
2009 Navarro Dioner F TB AL 363 0 0 22 26 6 19% -1 -3
2009 Sardinha Dane DET AL 66 0 0 4 8 1 11% -1 -21
2009 Moeller Chad BAL AL 128 0 0 5 12 0 0% -1 -11
2009 Mathis Jeff LAA AL 205 2 0 10 17 4 19% -1 -7
2009 Molina Jose NYA AL 115 1 0 5 13 2 13% -2 -16
2009 Martinez Victor CLE AL 225 0 0 12 23 3 12% -3 -13
2009 Olivo Miguel KC AL 281 1 0 26 21 8 28% -3 -11
2009 Redmond Mike MIN AL 152 0 0 11 15 1 6% -3 -21
2009 Morales Jose G MIN AL 131 0 0 11 13 1 7% -3 -25
2009 Napoli Mike A LAA AL 247 3 0 12 25 5 17% -3 -14
2009 Varitek Jason BOS AL 353 1 0 9 45 6 12% -4 -12
2009 Posada Jorge NYA AL 179 1 1 11 27 7 21% -4 -25
2009 Pierzynski A.J. CHA AL 359 2 0 17 34 1 3% -5 -16
2009 Buck John R KC AL 173 5 0 9 22 2 8% -6 -37
2009 Kottaras George BOS AL 118 1 0 17 15 1 6% -6 -59


TE : Throwing errors
FE : Fielding errors
WP+PB: Wild pitches plus passed balls
SB: Stolen bases allowed
CS: Caught stealing
CS% : SB/(SB + CS)
RS: Runs saved
RS/120: Runs saved pro-rated to 120 games

In other news, Chien-Ming Wang's moving back into the rotation, with Phil Hughes going to the pen. I don't think being in the pen long-term is in Hughes's best interests developmentally, but I don't think Hughes will be in the pen long-term. Either a spot will open up at the big league level, or he'll go back to Scranton to get his starter innings.
--Posted at 7:02 am by SG / 57 Comments | - (39)




Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Rangers (30-21) @ Yankees (31-21), Wednesday, June 3, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

TEX: Scott Feldman (26, RHP, 4-0, 3.91) vs. NYY: Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 5-1, 4.10)

Lineups
Texas Rangers
I. Kinsler, 2B (.277/.357/.544)
M. Young, 3B (.333/.379/.535)
A. Jones, DH (.282/.415/.565)
N. Cruz, RF (.295/.358/.601)
D. Murphy, LF (.237/.342/.351)
M. Byrd, CF (.302/.324/.488)
C. Davis, 1B (.189/.247/.426)
J. Saltalamacchia, C (.255/.307/.411)
E. Andrus, SS (.277/.323/.419)

New York Yankees(updated lineup thanks to Rich)
D. Jeter, SS (.319/.393/.474)
N. Swisher, 1B (.236/.373/.503)
J. Damon, LF (.301/.373/.536)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.250/.406/.548)
R. Cano, 2B (.310/.339/.505)
J. Posada, C (.313/.398/.604)
H. Matsui, DH (.268/.352/.503)
M. Cabrera, RF (.314/.366/.464)
B. Gardner, CF (.270/.346/.391)

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the most important, this game is a 12.  Go Yankees. 

--Posted at 4:38 pm by SG / 186 Comments | - (34)



NJ.com: Jesus Montero Promoted

Jesus Montero, the Yankees big-time C prospect, has been promoted to Trenton. And when I say big-time, I also mean his size-- 6’4”, 225. He is right-handed.
He was batting .356/.406/.583 in Tampa.

Montero’s having a monster season.  As a 19 year old, he’s put up an MLE of .283/.318/.428.  While there’ are still legitimate concerns about his defense and his being able to stay at catcher, it looks like the bat is going to play anywhere. 

--Posted at 8:42 am by SG / 83 Comments | - (40)




Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Yankees.com: Yanks use big frame to rout Rangers

NEW YORK—The Yankees’ box score on Tuesday night read like a rendition of the “Twelve Days of Christmas.”

New York pounded out a season-high 12 runs on 13 hits with 11 RBIs as it thumped the Rangers, 12-3, in a series-opening win in front of a crowd of 43,948 at Yankee Stadium.

The Bronx Bombers lived up to their billing, churning out a seven-run fourth inning off four hits—including Hideki Matsui’s three-run homer—and a pair of walks and a hit batsman.

Derek Jeter, who went 3-for-4, scored the 1,500th run of his career in the fourth off starter Vicente Padilla, and Jorge Posada connected for three-run shot of his own off reliever Warner Madrigal in the sixth.

Jeter is on fire, and is now hitting .319/.393/.474 on the season. 

--Posted at 9:58 pm by SG / 59 Comments | - (30)



Rangers (30-20) @ Yankees (30-21), Tuesday, June 2, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

TEX: Vicente Padilla (31, RHP, 3-2, 4.71) vs. NYY: A.J. Burnett (32, RHP, 3-2, 4.78)

Lineups
Texas Rangers
I. Kinsler, 2B (.279/.361/.552)
M. Young, 3B (.333/.376/.538)
H. Blalock, DH (.258/.294/.560)
N. Cruz, RF (.296/.360/.592)
D. Murphy, LF (.226/.336/.344)
M. Byrd, CF (.304/.325/.494)
C. Davis, 1B (.194/.253/.436)
J. Saltalamacchia, C (.255/.309/.416)
E. Andrus, SS (.283/.325/.428)

New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.311/.385/.469)
J. Damon, LF (.301/.367/.539)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.282/.386/.601)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.259/.412/.568)
R. Cano, 2B (.308/.338/.507)
J. Posada, C (.297/.389/.571)
H. Matsui, DH (.263/.351/.487)
M. Cabrera, RF (.316/.365/.471)
B. Gardner, CF (.265/.339/.389)

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the most important, this game is an 11.  Go Yankees.

--Posted at 5:08 pm by SG / 324 Comments | - (54)



Yahoo: Yankees set new errorless record in 5-2 win

Monday night was Chamberlain's first start at Progressive Field, and the bugs resurfaced in the eighth. Just not to the extent of two years ago.

"I started to see them coming, I'll be honest," Chamberlain said. :I actually swallowed one when I was walking around the mound to start (the eighth)."

Chamberlain made a dazzling defensive play in the fifth, highlighting a milestone game for the New York's fielders. The Yankees played error free for the 18th straight game, surpassing Boston's major league mark of 17 set in 2006. New York's last error came on May 13 at Toronto when shortstop Ramiro Pena misplayed a ground ball.


Eighteen games without an error is a nice achievement, but it's not necessarily indicative of a team that has a good defense. Handlng chances that are fielded cleanly and not making bad throws is an important part of defense. However, having the range to be able to reach more balls in play is an even more important part.

So let's look at the Yankees' zone rating numbers over the errorless stretch to see if they've actually played good defense or if they've just played clean defense. Standard caveats about reading too much into the small sample sizes that follow apply. Also, this doesn't include catcher defense since I don't grab it daily.

Dates Player Tm Lg Pos G INN CH PM ZR AvgPM Avg ZR Diff RS
5/13 - 6/1 Teixeira, Mark NYY AL 1B 17 154 34 33 .971 28 .838 5 4
5/13 - 6/1 Damon, Johnny NYY AL LF 16 139 33 31 .939 29 .867 2 2
5/13 - 6/1 Jeter, Derek NYY AL SS 17 155 41 36 .877 34 .825 2 1
5/13 - 6/1 Cabrera, Melky NYY AL RF 4 25 11 11 1.000 10 .904 1 1
5/13 - 6/1 Berroa, Angel NYY AL 3B 5 11 5 5 1.000 4 .731 1 1
5/13 - 6/1 Pena, Ramiro NYY AL 3B 6 23 9 8 .889 7 .812 1 1
5/13 - 6/1 Cabrera, Melky NYY AL CF 9 64 21 20 .953 19 .896 1 1
5/13 - 6/1 Cabrera, Melky NYY AL LF 4 26 7 7 1.000 6 .928 1 1
5/13 - 6/1 Pena, Ramiro NYY AL SS 2 10 1 1 .998 1 .582 0 0
5/13 - 6/1 Gardner, Brett NYY AL CF 13 101 29 26 .896 26 .888 0 0
5/13 - 6/1 Pena, Ramiro NYY AL 2B 2 10 4 2 .500 3 .804 -1 -1
5/13 - 6/1 Swisher, Nick NYY AL 1B 1 11 1 0 .000 0 .416 0 -1
5/13 - 6/1 Rodriguez, Alex NYY AL 3B 15 131 26 18 .692 21 .798 -3 -2
5/13 - 6/1 Swisher, Nick NYY AL RF 16 140 32 26 .812 28 .877 -2 -2
5/13 - 6/1 Cano, Robinson NYY AL 2B 18 155 51 39 .765 42 .815 -3 -2
5/13 - 6/1 Team 145 1157 305 263 .862 257 .844 6 4


G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to an average defender over the same number of chances
Overall, the Yankees have been four runs better than average over this 18 game stretch, led by Mark Teixeira. That's the equivalent of a team that would be 34 runs above average over 162 games.

Are they really that good? Probably not. While Derek Jeter has been solid this year and was solid last year, we can't ignore his pre-2008 career or the fact he's 34. However, if we assume Jeter will regress somewhat, we should also assume that Nick Swisher and Robinson Cano should be a little better based on their projections. So, there's a chance the Yankees will end the year with an above average defense, if standard zone rating is to be believed.

I don't have the data to do splits for UZR, but looking at FanGraphs's numbers, they are essentially average for 2009. Zone rating also sees the whole team as average over 2009.

Part of defense is pitching, so it might be useful to look at the batted ball types this year compared to last year.

Batted Ball Type 2008 2009
Ground Balls 45.2% 41.5%
Fly Balls 33.0% 36.3%
Line Drives 20.1% 20.4%
Bunts 1.8% 1.8%


A few more fly balls and a few less ground balls, but not enough to really say improved pitching is the reason for the improved defense.

I tried to project the Yankee defense using UZR back in January and ended up with them coming out as slightly above average (+3). I did it again in April based on roster changes and using a combination of ZR and UZR and ended up with them as even more above average (+8). Although some of the principle people in the projections have changed, it's safe to say the Yankees are fairly close to where we should have expected them to be defensively.

Year RS
2008 -46
2007 -20
2006 -28
2005 -53
2004 -17
2003 -65
2002 -43
2001 -52
2000 -41
1999 -11
1998 44


Those are the Yankees total runs saved defensively compared to average using zone rating back through 1998.

The last time the Yankees had an average defense according to zone rating was 11 years ago, when they may have been the best baseball team ever.
--Posted at 6:10 am by SG / 117 Comments | - (38)




Monday, June 1, 2009

Yankees.com: Joba sharp in mistake-free Yanks’ win

CLEVELAND—Joba Chamberlain pitched eight strong innings, and Nick Swisher and Alex Rodriguez each drove in two runs as the Yankees defeated the Indians, 5-2, on Monday at Progressive Field.

Pitching at the site of his infamous meltdown in Game 2 of the 2007 American League Division Series, Chamberlain had no problems with midges, seagulls or little else as the Yankees wrapped up a 5-2 road trip.

Mistake-free?  I counted two mistakes.  There’s a potential prize for anyone who guesses them.

Joba was very good tonight, probably the best he’s pitched all year.  It was the longest outing of his career (eight innings) although he has thrown more pitches than the 106 he threw.  Also encouraging was his velocity, as he was hitting 97 mph in the 8th inning.  If the Joba to the bullpen crowd is ever going to be shut up, it’s going to be due to games like tonight’s.  He even made a great diving catch. 

Another nice win for the team, and on a day when the rest of the division was idle.

--Posted at 9:30 pm by SG / 63 Comments | - (42)



Yankees (29-21) @ Indians (22-30), Monday, June 1, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Joba Chamberlain (23, RHP, 2-1, 3.97) vs. CLE: Jeremy Sowers (26, LHP, 1-2, 7.71)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.306/.376/.466)
N. Swisher, RF (.229/.367/.490)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.281/.381/.605)
A. Rodriguez, DH (.260/.412/.584)
J. Posada, C (.310/.398/.598)
R. Cano, 2B (.314/.544/.517)
M. Cabrera, LF (.323/.367/.481)
A. Berroa, 3B (.167/.167/.167)
B. Gardner, CF (.270/.333/.396)

Cleveland Indiands
A. Cabrera, SS (.318/.378/.433)
B. Francisco, CF (.275/.351/.458)
V. Martinez, DH (.350/.427/.543)
S. Choo, RF (.296/.412/.475)
J. Peralta, 3B (.269/.352/.339)
M. DeRosa, LF (.266/.338/.438)
R. Garko, 1B (.256/.350/.419)
J. Carroll, 2B (.290/.436/387)
K. Shoppach, C (.211/.343/.378)

It’s the last game of a fairly successful road trip.  Win, and the Yanks will head home with a 5-2 road trip and with a one game lead in the AL East.  Lose, and they’ll be tied with Boston for the division lead.  That certainly makes this game important.  Is it the most important game of all time?  It’s in the discussion at least.

Go Yankees.

--Posted at 4:48 pm by SG / 375 Comments | - (46)



May 2009 in Review

The Yankees entered May with a record of 12 and 10, two games out of first place in the AL East. They'd scored 128 runs and allowed 136 to that point.

They proceeded to go 3-7 over the first 10 games of May, dropping their overall record to 15-17, and falling 6.5 games back of first place.

As you are likely aware, the Yankees finished May off with a bang by going 14-4 in their last 18 games. When I ran the last 16 games of May 1000 times through Diamond Mind the most likely record was 10-6. The Yankees actually went 12-4, which was the result in 12.1% of the simulations.

Overall, the Yankees went 17-11 in May, which is essentially a 98 win pace. How did they get there? Here are the team's performances on offense, defense and pitching.

Player Split G GS PA Hits 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG BR wOBA
Mark Teixeira May 28 28 128 38 9 0 13 34 10 24 0 0 .330 .391 .748 30 .459
Johnny Damon May 27 27 124 35 10 1 6 21 9 22 2 0 .304 .355 .565 22 .382
Derek Jeter May 26 26 126 36 8 0 3 13 12 15 6 1 .321 .397 .473 21 .372
Alex Rodriguez May 22 22 97 20 4 0 7 17 18 12 0 0 .260 .412 .584 18 .413
Robinson Cano May 28 27 118 31 8 1 4 15 4 6 1 2 .272 .297 .465 14 .312
Hideki Matsui May 25 22 95 21 6 0 5 10 5 18 0 0 .241 .295 .483 13 .323
Melky Cabrera May 24 23 89 27 6 0 1 11 4 11 2 1 .321 .348 .429 12 .333
Brett Gardner May 22 11 60 17 1 2 2 4 7 6 4 1 .327 .417 .538 11 .413
Nick Swisher May 27 25 103 12 1 0 3 10 19 29 0 0 .150 .311 .275 9 .278
Jorge Posada May 6 4 21 8 1 0 3 7 3 3 0 0 .444 .524 1.000 7 .607
Ramiro Pena May 19 11 40 9 1 1 0 2 1 8 2 0 .231 .250 .308 3 .243
Jose Molina May 5 5 16 4 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 .267 .313 .400 2 .300
Angel Berroa May 10 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 .000
Team May 269 232 1021 258 57 5 47 145 93 159 17 5 .283 .354 .511 160 .363


PA: Plate appearances
BR: Batting runs using linear weights (not position-adjusted or above/below average/replacement)
wOBA: Weighted on base average

Mark Teixeira had a nice little month, although not as good as Angel Berroa. Yes, the Yankees as a team slugged .511. That's pretty good.

Player Split G IP H R ER HR BB K RA ERA FIP CERA AVG RSAR
CC Sabathia May 6 45.7 34 14 13 2 10 37 2.76 2.56 2.94 2.46 2.65 15.4
Alfredo Aceves May 9 19.7 16 6 6 2 3 18 2.75 2.75 3.30 3.00 3.01 6.7
A.J. Burnett May 5 32.3 30 15 15 4 18 32 4.18 4.18 4.78 4.58 4.51 5.8
Mariano Rivera May 10 11.0 9 3 3 3 1 13 2.45 2.45 4.65 3.75 3.62 4.1
Chien-Ming Wang May 3 8.0 9 2 2 1 2 7 2.25 2.25 3.83 4.64 3.57 3.2
Andy Pettitte May 6 36.3 46 21 20 7 17 18 5.20 4.95 6.20 6.37 5.84 2.4
Joba Chamberlain May 5 22.3 24 12 12 4 12 29 4.84 4.84 4.81 5.67 5.11 2.4
Edwar Ramirez May 8 9.0 7 4 4 3 7 8 4.00 4.00 8.09 5.93 6.01 1.8
David Robertson May 7 5.0 2 2 1 0 4 6 3.60 1.80 3.20 1.46 2.15 1.2
Brett Tomko May 5 4.3 5 2 2 1 2 0 4.15 4.15 7.58 6.09 5.94 0.8
Brian Bruney May 1 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.40 0.6
Jonathan Albaladejo May 9 10.0 11 6 4 2 6 7 5.40 3.60 6.50 6.13 5.41 0.4
Phil Coke May 11 11.0 9 7 7 4 5 4 5.73 5.73 8.56 5.48 6.59 0.1
Anthony Paul Claggett May 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
Damaso Marte May 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0
Mark Melancon May 2 0.3 1 2 2 0 4 0 54.00 54.00 39.20 18.15 37.12 -1.8
Jose Veras May 13 9.7 13 9 9 3 8 6 8.38 8.38 8.79 8.75 8.64 -2.8
Phil Hughes May 6 28.7 35 22 21 6 13 25 6.91 6.59 5.96 6.53 6.36 -3.5
Team May 133 273.3 251 128 150 42 112 213 4.21 4.94 5.07 4.42 4.81 48.1


FIP: FIP
CERA: Component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
AVG: Average of ERA,FIP and CERA

RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher

C.C. Sabathia earned his money in May. It's only eight innings, but Chien-Ming Wang is showing signs of life. As a team, the Yankee pitching wasn't really all that great in May, although they were better than they were in April.

Dates Player Pos G INN CH PM ZR AvgPM Diff RS
5/1 - 5/31 Teixeira, Mark 1B 27 243.3 48 44 .008 41 3 3
5/1 - 5/31 Cabrera, Melky CF 17 125.0 37 36 .032 33 3 2
5/1 - 5/31 Cabrera, Melky RF 9 53.0 21 20 .413 18 2 2
5/1 - 5/31 Damon, Johnny LF 26 228.3 51 46 .023 45 1 1
5/1 - 5/31 Cano, Robinson 2B 28 244.3 80 65 -.012 64 1 1
5/1 - 5/31 Gardner, Brett CF 18 129.3 43 40 .035 39 1 1
5/1 - 5/31 Cabrera, Melky LF 4 26.0 8 8 .157 7 1 1
5/1 - 5/31 Berroa, Angel 3B 7 17.0 8 7 .255 6 1 1
5/1 - 5/31 Pena, Ramiro SS 4 27.0 10 8 -.154 8 0 0
5/1 - 5/31 Pena, Ramiro 3B 10 64.0 22 17 .004 17 0 0
5/1 - 5/31 Swisher, Nick 1B 1 11.0 1 0 -.167 1 -1 -1
5/1 - 5/31 Pena, Ramiro 2B 2 10.0 4 2 .500 3 -1 -1
5/1 - 5/31 Jeter, Derek SS 25 227.3 63 51 .003 52 -1 -1
5/1 - 5/31 Swisher, Nick RF 24 201.3 43 36 -.022 37 -1 -1
5/1 - 5/31 Rodriguez, Alex 3B 20 173.3 38 25 .658 30 -5 -4
5/1 - 5/31 Total 1780.3 477 405 .849 401 4 3


G: Games
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
Ch: Playable Chances
PM: Plays Made
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs saved compared to average

The numbers agree with my eyes on Teixeira, he's been awesome defensively. As a team, the Yankees were above average defensively in May, with only Alex Rodriguez looking particularly bad. Of course, he's dealing with his hip issue which may mean his defense is going to be subpar all season. There's a lot of hype about the Yankees' errorless streak, but that's less important than the fact that they are showing better range so far.

It's tough to complain about how May went overall. Let's hope June is even better.
--Posted at 8:49 am by SG / 82 Comments | - (34)




Sunday, May 31, 2009

Yankees (29-20) @ Indians (21-30), Sunday, May 31, 2009, 12:40pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Philip Hughes (23, RHP, 3-2, 5.16) vs. CLE: Carl Pavano (33, RHP, 5-4, 5.50)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.305/.376/.468)
J. Damon, LF (.295/.363/.532)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.275/.377/.582)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.257/.415/.595)
R. Cano, 2B (.319/.349/.525)
H. Matsui, DH (.262/.343/.490)
N. Swisher, RF (.227/.368/.494)
B. Gardner, CF (.271/.336/.402)
F. Cervelli, C (.300/.317/.325)

Cleveland Indians
A. Cabrera, SS (.313/.374/.424)
B. Francisco, LF (.265/.335/.450)
J. Peralta, 3B (.257/.344/.329)
S. Choo, RF (.298/.413/.478)
M. DeRosa, DH (.268/.340/.442)
R. Garko, 1B (.263/.358/.430)
K. Shoppach, C (.221/.356/.395)
L. Valbuena, 2B (.182/.250/.318)
T. Crowe, CF (.171/.237/.200)

I shouldn’t have to tell you how important this game is.  Go Yankees.

--Posted at 12:02 pm by SG / 450 Comments | - (55)




Saturday, May 30, 2009

Yankees.com: CC tops Tribe as Yankees slug away

CLEVELAND—CC Sabathia waited until the fifth inning to allow his first hit and had a successful return to Progressive Field, while Jorge Posada and Nick Swisher homered to help the Yankees thump the Indians, 10-5, on Saturday.

Making his second start against the Tribe but his first in Cleveland since last June 28, Sabathia was greeted politely by the crowd at a place he called his “second home.” He settled in comfortably, recording the first 13 outs before Shin-Soo Choo broke up the bid with an infield single up the middle.

It’s so great having Jorge back, isn’t it? 

--Posted at 9:37 pm by SG / 77 Comments | - (35)



Yankees (28-20) @ Indians (21-29), Saturday, May 30, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: C.C. Sabathia (28, LHP, 4-3, 3.42) vs. CLE: Fausto Carmona (25, RHP, 2-4, 6.42)

Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.299/.373/.462)
J. Damon, LF (.299/.369/.543)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.273/.378/.585)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.257/.409/.614)
R. Cano, 2B (.318/.349/.530)
J. Posada, C (.325/.417/.600)
H. Matsui, DH (.250/.335/.472)
N. Swisher, RF (.227/.367/.480)
B. Gardner, CF (.279/.339/.413)

Cleveland Indians
A. Cabrera, SS (.323/.385/.438)
G. Sizemore, DH (.223/.310/.406)
V. Martinez, C (.352/.429/.546)
J. Peralta, 3B (.262/.342/.335)
S. Choo, RF (.293/.408/.460)
M. DeRosa, LF (.267/.337/.444)
R. Garko, 1B (.261/.354/.432)
B. Francisco, CF (.267/.340/.452)
J. Carroll, 2B (.286/.429/.393)

Getting to first place is easy.  Staying there is harder.  A win tonight would give the Yankees a close to insurmountable 1.5 game lead in the AL East with fewer than 120 games remaining.  That of course makes tonight’s game ultra-important.  Go Yankees.

--Posted at 5:14 pm by SG / 332 Comments | - (53)



Yankee Home/Road Splits through games of May 29, 2009

I was wondering about who has benefitted the most from the New Yankee Stadium, so I pulled the splits to see what they say.

First up, the hitters:

Player rPA rwOBA hPA hwOBA Ratio
Mark Teixeira 105 .324 104 .465 1.44
Jorge Posada 56 .353 40 .482 1.37
Melky Cabrera 59 .308 85 .405 1.31
Alex Rodriguez 45 .371 43 .467 1.26
Johnny Damon 106 .342 100 .429 1.26
Cody Ransom 31 .209 22 .256 1.23
Derek Jeter 112 .333 108 .386 1.16
Brett Gardner 69 .312 46 .352 1.13
Hideki Matsui 80 .354 84 .333 0.94
Jose Molina 28 .340 20 .285 0.84
Francisco Cervelli 22 .319 19 .249 0.78
Ramiro Pena 30 .312 39 .232 0.74
Robinson Cano 111 .414 98 .303 0.73
Nick Swisher 102 .434 86 .270 0.62
Kevin Cash 13 .422 15 .076 0.18
Angel Berroa 8 .225 4 .000 0.00
Xavier Nady 29 .306 0 .000 0.00
Total 1006 .349 913 .365 1.05


rPA: Road plate appearances
rwOBA: Road weighted on base average
hPA: Home plate appearances
hwOBA: Home weighted on base average
Ratio: hwOBA divided by rwOBA (greater than one means better at NYS)

Bear in mind that the average player hits about 10% better at home in a neutral park. I thought Johnny Damon would head this list, but it's Mark Teixeira instead. I also thought Derek Jeter would have had a bigger split than he has.

And the pitchers:

And the pitchers:

Player hIP hERA hFIP hCERA hAVG rIP rERA rFIP rCERA rAVG Ratio
Brett Tomko 3.3 2.70 5.00 1.65 3.12 1.0 9.00 16.20 14.97 13.39 4.30
Jose Veras 14.3 5.65 5.57 3.23 4.82 5.3 8.44 7.51 5.52 7.16 1.49
Jonathan Albaladejo 9.7 3.72 6.20 4.35 4.76 11.3 7.94 7.44 5.66 7.01 1.47
Alfredo Aceves 11.7 1.54 3.46 2.38 2.46 8.0 4.50 3.08 2.32 3.30 1.34
Mariano Rivera 13.0 2.08 3.74 3.55 3.12 7.7 3.52 4.37 3.39 3.76 1.21
David Robertson 4.3 2.08 2.51 2.05 2.21 2.0 4.50 1.70 1.24 2.48 1.12
Phil Coke 10.7 4.22 6.76 3.22 4.74 9.7 4.66 5.99 3.58 4.74 1.00
Edwar Ramirez 9.0 5.00 8.98 5.95 6.64 8.3 5.40 7.88 5.88 6.39 0.96
Brian Bruney 4.0 2.25 1.70 0.71 1.55 5.0 3.60 0.40 0.36 1.45 0.94
CC Sabathia 34.0 3.97 3.35 2.56 3.29 37.0 2.92 3.55 2.27 2.91 0.88
Chien-Ming Wang 4.3 20.77 8.51 12.62 13.97 6.7 20.25 7.40 8.91 12.19 0.87
A.J. Burnett 32.0 4.78 5.79 4.23 4.93 32.0 4.78 4.48 3.17 4.15 0.84
Joba Chamberlain 17.0 5.82 4.91 4.35 5.03 28.3 2.86 4.96 3.90 3.91 0.78
Phil Hughes 14.0 5.79 7.91 6.80 6.83 15.7 4.60 4.03 2.71 3.78 0.55
Andy Pettitte 32.3 5.57 5.92 5.15 5.54 31.3 2.59 3.84 2.47 2.96 0.53
Damaso Marte 2.3 27.00 16.49 16.55 20.01 3.0 6.00 5.87 3.30 5.05 0.25
Mark Melancon 0.3 54.00 39.20 14.43 35.88 3.0 0.00 3.87 0.87 1.58 0.04
Anthony Paul Claggett 1.7 43.20 20.00 22.74 28.65 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total 218 5.61 4.41 5.13 5.05 215 4.51 4.67 3.38 4.19 0.83




hIP: Home innings pitched
hERA: Home ERA
hFIP: Home FIP
hCERA: Home component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
hAVG: Home average of ERA,FIP and CERA
rIP: Home innings pitched
rERA: Home ERA
rFIP: Home FIP
rCERA: Home component ERA (31*OBP*SLG)
rAVG: Home average of ERA,FIP and CERA
Ratio: rAVG divided by hAVG (greater than one means better at NYS)

Looking at the starting pitchers, Andy Pettitte's been hurt the most by the new stadium so far, but all five starters have been better on the road. That's not exactly a newsflash if you've watched the games.
--Posted at 1:42 pm by SG / 21 Comments | - (56)



Yankees.com: Yanks beat Tribe to move into first place

CLEVELAND—Andy Pettitte pitched into the sixth inning before leaving with lower back stiffness, and the Yankees held on to post a 3-1 victory over the Indians on Friday, moving into sole possession of first place in the American League East for the first time since the end of the 2006 season.

So much for the Posada can’t call a well-pitched game theory.

--Posted at 12:34 am by SG / 53 Comments | - (39)




Friday, May 29, 2009

Yankees (27-20) @ Indians (21-28), Friday, May 29, 2009, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**

NYY: Andy Pettitte (37, LHP, 4-1, 4.30) vs. CLE: Cliff Lee (30, LHP, 2-5, 3.04)
Lineups
New York Yankees
D. Jeter, SS (.297/.372/.464)
J. Damon, LF (.302/.373/.553)
M. Teixeira, 1B (.275/.382/.596)
A. Rodriguez, 3B (.258/.410/.636)
R. Cano, 2B (.320/.351/.536)
J. Posada, C (.312/.402/.584)
H. Matsui, DH (.257/.344/.486)
N. Swisher, RF (.223/.364/.480)
B. Gardner, CF (.277/.339/.416)

Cleveland Indians
A. Cabrera, SS (.321/.385/.439)
G. Sizemore, DH (.223/.312/.411)
V. Martinez, 1B (.359/.434/.557)
J. Peralta, 3B (.267/.344/.342)
M. DeRosa, LF (.266/.333/.446)
B. Francisco, RF (.259/.329/.448)
J. Carroll, 2B (.320/.452/.440)
K. Shoppach, C (.228/.371/.418)
T. Crowe, CF (.182/.250/.212)

This game is extremely important.  Go Yankees.

--Posted at 6:05 pm by SG / 202 Comments | - (34)



NL Shortstop Offense & Defense Through May 28, 2009

As requested, here's the NL version of yesterday's list ranking shortstops. These numbers are not adjusted for league.

Rank Name Team Lg Pos PA AVG OBP SLG BRAR RS TR
1 Ramirez, Hanley FLA NL SS 193 .320 .401 .550 18.3 0.0 18.3
2 Theriot, Ryan CHN NL SS 195 .286 .344 .457 9.9 1.5 11.4
3 Escobar, Yunel ATL NL SS 171 .293 .367 .440 8.1 3.1 11.2
4 Tejada, Miguel HOU NL SS 195 .346 .369 .519 15.8 -6.2 9.6
5 Reyes, Jose NYN NL SS 166 .279 .355 .395 7.9 1.6 9.5
6 Hardy, J.J. MIL NL SS 167 .247 .329 .411 4.0 5.3 9.3
7 Rodriguez, Luis SD NL SS 101 .256 .396 .346 5.5 0.4 5.9
8 Ojeda, Augie ARI NL SS 113 .260 .345 .344 1.7 3.3 5.0
9 Castro, Juan LAN NL SS 45 .385 .444 .513 4.8 0.2 5.0
10 Renteria, Edgar SF NL SS 166 .248 .333 .338 1.6 2.8 4.4
11 Janish, Paul CIN NL SS 46 .300 .378 .375 1.4 2.9 4.4
12 Guzman, Cristian WAS NL SS 164 .340 .352 .465 8.3 -4.2 4.0
13 Greene, Tyler STL NL SS 41 .263 .300 .500 2.2 0.8 3.0
14 Wilson, Jack PIT NL SS 110 .252 .284 .369 -0.3 2.0 1.7
15 Cabrera, Everth SD NL SS 14 .308 .357 .385 0.6 0.5 1.1
16 Cruz, Luis PIT NL SS 2 .500 .500 .500 0.2 0.3 0.6
17 Hernandez, Diory ATL NL SS 24 .174 .208 .217 -2.0 2.3 0.3
18 Wilson, Josh ARI NL SS 42 .231 .333 .269 -0.5 0.6 0.1
19 Tulowitzki, Troy COL NL SS 176 .227 .318 .393 2.0 -2.4 -0.4
20 Burke, Chris SD NL SS 70 .219 .286 .344 0.2 -0.6 -0.4
21 Vazquez, Ramon PIT NL SS 81 .224 .346 .239 -0.5 -0.2 -0.6
22 Frandsen, Kevin SF NL SS 19 .000 .158 .000 -2.8 2.0 -0.9
23 Gonzalez, Alberto WAS NL SS 53 .271 .321 .396 1.5 -2.8 -1.3
24 Bixler, Brian PIT NL SS 26 .200 .231 .320 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6
25 Wilson, Josh SD NL SS 42 .000 .091 .000 -2.2 0.6 -1.6
26 Rollins, Jimmy PHI NL SS 208 .223 .271 .332 -3.1 0.3 -2.9
27 Furcal, Rafael LAN NL SS 191 .240 .304 .303 -2.8 -0.1 -2.9
28 Gonzalez, Alex CIN NL SS 123 .211 .254 .307 -3.5 0.1 -3.5
29 Drew, Stephen ARI NL SS 112 .211 .295 .347 0.1 -4.7 -4.5
30 Martinez, Ramon NYN NL SS 35 .121 .143 .182 -3.8 -2.2 -6.0
31 Greene, Khalil STL NL SS 123 .200 .287 .295 -2.1 -4.9 -7.0


BRAR Batting runs above replacement level (position and park-adjusted) using linear weights
RS: Runs saved above average (using zone rating)
TR:Total runs above replacement level ( BRAR + RS)

And here's the combined list for both leagues, using an AL/NL adjustment (NL BRAR times 0.96)

Rank Name Team Lg Pos PA AVG OBP SLG BRAR RS TR
1 Scutaro, Marco TOR AL SS 238 .291 .403 .449 17.5 8.2 25.7
2 Bartlett, Jason TB AL SS 178 .373 .418 .596 23.1 1.7 24.8
3 Ramirez, Hanley FLA NL SS 193 .320 .401 .550 17.6 0.0 17.6
4 Jeter, Derek NYA AL SS 216 .297 .372 .464 15.0 -1.0 14.1
5 Theriot, Ryan CHN NL SS 195 .286 .344 .457 9.5 1.5 11.0
6 Escobar, Yunel ATL NL SS 171 .293 .367 .440 7.8